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000
FXUS62 KILM 271115
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
715 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain in the area today. A slow moving
cold front will push into the region late Tuesday or Wednesday
increasing rainfall chances midweek. The front will stall in the
area Thursday and Friday keeping temperatures seasonable and
maintaining thunderstorm chances into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Monday...Persistent onshore flow in the lower levels
will continue to push the low topped scattered showers that
develop over the adjacent Atlantic Waters, onshore this morning.
Their behavior once over land is to dissipate, as illustrated by
the latest KLTX 88D trends. Still quite dry in the mid and upper
levels this morning, which will persist into this evening. Via
Model RH time height displays across the FA. Subsidence aloft will
tend to put a lid on any diurnally driven air mass type convection
that tries to develop later today. Instability may also be in
question with different model opinions for this aftn and again
tonight. The GFS and NAM are basically opposites of one another
with the GFS indicating sub 1000 CAPE and the NAM 1500-2000+ CAPE.
However, forcing from the sea breeze front and the avbl
instability should be enough to produce isolated Tstorms that
break thru this lid this aftn. Todays highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s, except 80-85 along the immediate coast.

The longwave upper ridge affecting the FA this past weekend, will
slowly transition into a longwave upper trof across the FA late
tonight but mainly occurring during the subsequent period. A sfc
cold front well displaced from its parent low, may reach or just
beyond the outskirts of the westernmost counties of the ILM CWA by
Tue daybreak. Have increased POPs and cloud coverage across the ILM
CWA, mainly from Midnight til daybreak Tue. The hier pops will be
reserved closer to the cold front, ie. well inland. Instability for
convective purposes will be avbl if one looks at the NAM and
questionable if 1 looks at the GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...The new upper longwave pattern will become
established early this period. Upper troffing will affect the areas
from the Mississippi River Valley eastward to the Atlantic Coast.
And the upper ridging west of the Mississippi River to the Pacific
Coast. Unfortunately the upper trof axis will lie just west of the
ILM CWA.

At the start of this period, a sfc cold front will be on the
doorsteps of the ILM CWA doorsteps west of the I-95 corridor. Models
basically push the front to the east across portions of the FA
before stalling it oriented NE to SW. Moisture thru the atm column
increases dramatically early Tue and persists thru Wednesday
morning, with peak PWs around 2 inches Tue aftn and evening. With a
progged westerly 5 to 10 kt movement with Tuesday`s convection,
flooding issues will likely become the nemesis across the ILM CWA.
Couple of embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the dynamics to
either initiate or sustain the convection this period. POPs across
the FA will run up to a good chance to possibly likely Tue and Tue
night. POPS will scale back later Wed and Wed Night as the deep
moisture decreases. With the frontal boundary progged to be off the
immediate Carolina coasts late Wed, will lower POPs to low chance
well inland. Temperatures this period will run at or slightly below
normal. The below part is due to the occurrence of cloudiness and
threat of pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Weak front stalled in the area under broad 5h
troughing will maintain diurnal precip chances through the period.
Although the front will be in the region its exact location is hard
to determine on any given day, making pinpointing the areas favored
for precip rather difficult. Precipitable water values around 1.5
inches into next weekend, which is close to climatology for this
time of year, combined with modest mid level lapse rates should
produce daily bouts of diurnal convection. Left over convective
boundaries and the lingering front will likely produce the first
storms each day. Late in the period a slug of deep moisture, with
origins in the eastern Pacific, is spread over the Southeast by
shortwave passing north of the area. This shortwave will help drive
another weakening front into the area Sun. The increased moisture
along with the boundary and diurnal heating may create the best
precip chances during the period. Highs near climo expected with
lows running a little above climo. Exception will be in locations
that experience heavier convection. In these areas highs may run
several degrees below climo.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Ridging from High pressure centered offshore from the
NE states, will remain in control today. the High will slowly
lose its grip across the FA tonight as its center pushes further
offshore. Moisture profiles in the low levels support fog and/or
stratus fractus towards morning, with MVFR across the normally
prone terminals. In addition, the weak onshore flow in the low
levels, will support -shra occasionally moving onshore this
morning. Weak resultant wind boundary will develop by noon and
will push inland thru the afternoon and early evening hours. The
sfc to 700 MB level exhibits light winds, 10 kt or less, resulting
with the sea breeze, se-s around 10 kt, able to push inland
without any impediments. For late today thru tonight, a weak cold
front will approach from the west. Will increase the chance for
convection across the western terminals by midnight. Synoptically,
winds will start out from the ne-ene at 5 kt and slowly veer to
the ese-se 5 to 10 kt, except up to 15 kt across the coastal
terminals due to the mesoscale sea breeze. Winds will further veer
to the sse-s around 5 kt after sunset and thru the evening hours
and overnight.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR except possible brief MVFR/IFR from
the scattered convection each day, except for Tue and Wed where
areas to widespread convection will occur due to a cold front.
Brief MVFR from fog possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM Monday...Winds and significant seas will slightly
diminish and subside respectively during this period. Although, to
begin with, these parameters were not in any advisory or warning
thresholds. This period will see a veering of the winds this
period from ne-e today, se-s tonight. This a result of the sfc
highs center moving well offshore from the NE States Coast during
this period. The flow on the backside of this high will be
highlighted across the FA. The sfc pg will remain rather relaxed
this period, with wind speeds 5 to 10 kts or around 10 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft with the 3 footers occurring
off Cape Fear and Romain respectively. By daybreak Tue, seas will
subside to around 2 ft thruout. An e-ese ground swell at 7 to 9
second periods will dominate the sig. seas spectrum, Light to
moderate showers this morning, will occasionally move onshore. No
lightning with this pcpn and thus kept Thunder out. This aftn,
could see convection along the sea breeze and for tonight
convection may move off the mainland during the pre-dawn Tue
hours.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...The sfc cold front from the near term period
will make some really slow strides to the east, from the I-95
Corridor early Tue and ending up stalled NE-SW across the local
waters by Wednesday Night. As for winds, the High centered over the
High Seas well off the NE States Coast will extend its far reaches
across the local and adjacent waters. Looking at S-SW directions
thru Tue and SW-W during Wednesday. Wavewatch3 indicates a NE wind
by daybreak Thu across the local waters in response to the cold
front progged by the GFS to have moved far enough east into the
offshore waters. Did not buy that scenario as of yet. The sfc pg
remains rather loosened this period with wind speeds thru the Short
Term around 10 kt or possibly just 5 to 10 kt. The stronger s to sw
flow will lie offshore east of the local waters where speeds at 10
to 20 kt are possible.

Significant seas will remain governed by a small easterly ground
swell on Tue, then become mixed with a pseudo se-s swell on Wed due
to the stronger winds just east of the local waters. Overall looking
at around 2 ft with 3 footers occasionally mixing in if the wind
driven waves increase a bit. Dominating periods will run 6 to 8
seconds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Weak front stalled in the area along with
Bermuda High trying to expand west will maintain light but
changeable winds through the period. During the day light
southerly flow is expected but overnight winds may acquire a
northerly/offshore component. Weak gradient will keep speeds 10 kt
or less through the period with seas running 2 ft or less.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...



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000
FXUS62 KRAH 271035
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will weaken over the area today as a cold front
approaches from the west early tonight through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Surface and low amplitude mid level ridging weakens today, setting
up a southerly return flow regime featuring warm air and moisture
advection ahead of a cold front sagging southeast out of the Ohio
Valley this evening. With the late arrival of the frontal zone,
partly to mostly sunny skies are on tap which will allow highs to
inch up a bit from Sunday`s mid and upper 80s, with upper 80s north
to widespread 90 to 92 degrees across the southern half of the area.

Strengthening of the low level flow immediately ahead of the slow
moving front will boost precipitable water in the west by sunset,
with the subsequent 1.5 to 2 inch plume settling slowly across the
area overnight. Initial instability in the west may be sufficient
for thunderstorms in the northwest piedmont early this evening, but
instability will be waning with unfavorable diurnal timing
concurrent with the arrival of stronger low level convergence
associated with the H85 trof. In addition, mid level support lags
the eastward progression of the low level forcing so expect only
isolated storms, but scattered to numerous showers overnight,
focused in the west early to central and east after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Upper trof axis rotating across the Appalachians on Tuesday will
provide some missing kinematic ingredients needed for storm
initiation and organization. While shear and instability will be
rather unimpressive (CAPE of ~1.2K Joules) due to cloud coverage and
mid level lapse rates of less than 5.5C/Km, these will be offset by
favorable alignment of modest upper diffluence ahead of the trof
axis and mid level DPA. As such, there is strong consensus in just
about every meso-model available on the development of a squall line
in the early afternoon across the northwest piedmont with subsequent
movement east across the area during the afternoon and early
evening. The convective line moves east of the area around sunset,
with subsequent drying overnight. Highs Tuesday will be hampered by
the cloud coverage and weak cool air advection behind the front,
with most areas topping out in the mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night will
be mostly mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 317 AM Monday...

Cyclonic flow around the broad mid-upr longwave trough over much of
the eastern US will be the general pattern for the long term period.
The surface pattern over the Carolinas will feature a persistent
Piedmont trough that is typical with westerly or west-northwesterly
flow. While the main moisture axis is progged to remain mostly to
our east through the rest of the work week, it appears that there
will be enough moisture lingering over our area, when combined with
the sfc trough and waves embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft, that
20-40 percent pops (highest east) appears warranted...mainly during
the afternoon/evening each day through the period.  Rain chances
will then increase next Sunday as the next sfc front approaches and
moves through the area.

With little airmass change expected...look for temps to remain a few
degrees either side of climo through the period, with the main
influence being cloud and precip coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...

Patchy IFR/MVFR conditions across the east and south will improve by
13Z, with VFR conditions then expected for the bulk of the TAF
period. High pressure over the area will be weakening ahead of a
cold front sagging south out of the Ohio Valley early tonight.
Expect widely scattered showers after 00Z in the Triad (GSO/INT),
with increasing coverage into the east after 03Z. MVFR conditions
will accompany stronger showers and isolated thunderstorms. IFR
conditions are possible again late tonight into early Tuesday
morning in the moister airmass.

A line of strong thunderstorms will accompany the front on Tuesday
beginning around midday in the west (INT/GSO) and progressing into
the east (RDU/FAY/RWI) areas between 21-00Z.

Beyond Tuesday, the front looks to stall far enough southeast of the
area that to preclude the threat of adverse aviation conditions
outside of isolated diurnal convection from Wednesday through the
weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...mlm




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271035
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will weaken over the area today as a cold front
approaches from the west early tonight through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Surface and low amplitude mid level ridging weakens today, setting
up a southerly return flow regime featuring warm air and moisture
advection ahead of a cold front sagging southeast out of the Ohio
Valley this evening. With the late arrival of the frontal zone,
partly to mostly sunny skies are on tap which will allow highs to
inch up a bit from Sunday`s mid and upper 80s, with upper 80s north
to widespread 90 to 92 degrees across the southern half of the area.

Strengthening of the low level flow immediately ahead of the slow
moving front will boost precipitable water in the west by sunset,
with the subsequent 1.5 to 2 inch plume settling slowly across the
area overnight. Initial instability in the west may be sufficient
for thunderstorms in the northwest piedmont early this evening, but
instability will be waning with unfavorable diurnal timing
concurrent with the arrival of stronger low level convergence
associated with the H85 trof. In addition, mid level support lags
the eastward progression of the low level forcing so expect only
isolated storms, but scattered to numerous showers overnight,
focused in the west early to central and east after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Upper trof axis rotating across the Appalachians on Tuesday will
provide some missing kinematic ingredients needed for storm
initiation and organization. While shear and instability will be
rather unimpressive (CAPE of ~1.2K Joules) due to cloud coverage and
mid level lapse rates of less than 5.5C/Km, these will be offset by
favorable alignment of modest upper diffluence ahead of the trof
axis and mid level DPA. As such, there is strong consensus in just
about every meso-model available on the development of a squall line
in the early afternoon across the northwest piedmont with subsequent
movement east across the area during the afternoon and early
evening. The convective line moves east of the area around sunset,
with subsequent drying overnight. Highs Tuesday will be hampered by
the cloud coverage and weak cool air advection behind the front,
with most areas topping out in the mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night will
be mostly mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 317 AM Monday...

Cyclonic flow around the broad mid-upr longwave trough over much of
the eastern US will be the general pattern for the long term period.
The surface pattern over the Carolinas will feature a persistent
Piedmont trough that is typical with westerly or west-northwesterly
flow. While the main moisture axis is progged to remain mostly to
our east through the rest of the work week, it appears that there
will be enough moisture lingering over our area, when combined with
the sfc trough and waves embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft, that
20-40 percent pops (highest east) appears warranted...mainly during
the afternoon/evening each day through the period.  Rain chances
will then increase next Sunday as the next sfc front approaches and
moves through the area.

With little airmass change expected...look for temps to remain a few
degrees either side of climo through the period, with the main
influence being cloud and precip coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...

Patchy IFR/MVFR conditions across the east and south will improve by
13Z, with VFR conditions then expected for the bulk of the TAF
period. High pressure over the area will be weakening ahead of a
cold front sagging south out of the Ohio Valley early tonight.
Expect widely scattered showers after 00Z in the Triad (GSO/INT),
with increasing coverage into the east after 03Z. MVFR conditions
will accompany stronger showers and isolated thunderstorms. IFR
conditions are possible again late tonight into early Tuesday
morning in the moister airmass.

A line of strong thunderstorms will accompany the front on Tuesday
beginning around midday in the west (INT/GSO) and progressing into
the east (RDU/FAY/RWI) areas between 21-00Z.

Beyond Tuesday, the front looks to stall far enough southeast of the
area that to preclude the threat of adverse aviation conditions
outside of isolated diurnal convection from Wednesday through the
weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...mlm



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000
FXUS62 KMHX 270840
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
440 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will gradually move offshore today. A
cold fornt will approach from the northwest tonight through
Wednesday, then stall across the area into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
As of 400 AM Monday...weakening high pressure over the area this
morning will gradually shift offshore this afternoon, with surface
winds becoming southeast to south. Light winds and moist low
levels will result in areas of low clouds and fog early this
morning, then becoming partly cloudy/mostly sunny for the rest of
the day. Isolated shwoers will affect the southern OBX between
Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout early this morning, then remaining
off the coast the rest of the day. High temps a few degrees warmer
than on Sunday - near 90 inland to lower 80s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 400 AM Monday...upper ridge will weaken tonight with short
wave energy approaching from northwest while a surface cold front
approaches from the northwest as well. Models continue to indicate
that scattered showers/tstms will approach from upstream overnight
and no change to previous forecast 20-40% POPs developing late
tonight. Increasing cloudiness and light southerly flow will
result in min temps around 70 inland to mid 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Typical summery pattern through the long term
with diurnally driven isolated to scattered convection most days
and seasonably warm and humid conditions.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...A robust shortwave trough pushing across
the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region will act to break
down the upper ridge while a cold front approaches the region from
the northwest. Better forcing for convection arrives on Tue and
have advertised likely pops for all but coastal locales, where
will have high chance. Severe threat does not look all that
favorable as deep layer shear is only on order of 20 kt or less.
Clouds and precip will keep temps a few degrees below normal with
highs generally in the mid 80s on Tuesday. Any storms will quickly
move south and east and weaken on Tue night so only small pops for
the overnight hours. Lows seasonable with readings 69-74 degrees.

Wednesday through Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow will persist
across the eastern CONUS through the long term. Don`t expect any
particular day to be a washout but scattered showers/thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon through the period with moist
unstable conditions in place. The best chance of showers will be
across the interior zones during the afternoon and early evening
hours when instability is maximized and sea breeze becomes active.
Temps look to be near normal with highs in the upper 80s to around
90s inland and mid 80s coast with lows in the upper 60s to low to
mid 70s.

Sunday...27/00Z long term model suite in fairly good agreement on
a front and stronger short wave dropping south and east into the
Carolinas by late weekend. This will provide a better chance of
showers/storms than the typical summertime sct convection regime.
Have raised pops to high chance as a result. Will have to monitor
for severe potential as kinematics could be more favorable for
organized convection.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through 06Z Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Monday...Current mainly VFR conditions expected to
deteriorate to IFR vsbys and CIGs by around 09Z all sites with
surface conditions conducive to fog and stratus development.
Conditions improving to VFR with heating 12Z-14Z and prevailing
rest of TAF period as high pressure shifts offshore.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Generally VFR through the long term. There may be
tempo reductions to vsby/cigs on Tue as a front approaches the
region and produces sct to widespread showers/storms. More typical
sct/iso thunderstorms Wed through Fri and mainly during the
afternoon hours. Could be some overnight/early morning BR/FG each
night as low level moisture will be high and winds calm/light.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term/Through tonight////
As of 400 AM Monday...high pressure extending over the waters from
southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina will result in
light and varying winds this morning. The high will move offshore
this afternoon with winds becoming southerly around 10 KT and then
south-southwest tonight.

Wave models remain in good agreement with heights 2-3 feet through
tonight.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...High pressure will edge further offshore on
Tuesday as a cool front approaches. Winds will remain relatively
light less than 15 kt however and out of the S. The front moves
into the area and remain stalled across or near the region
through the end of the week. Generally expect descent boating
conditions through the period with winds mainly remaining below 15
kt with seas around 2-4 ft. A few showers and storms could dot the
waters through the period especially during the night time
periods.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 270840
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
440 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will gradually move offshore today. A
cold fornt will approach from the northwest tonight through
Wednesday, then stall across the area into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
As of 400 AM Monday...weakening high pressure over the area this
morning will gradually shift offshore this afternoon, with surface
winds becoming southeast to south. Light winds and moist low
levels will result in areas of low clouds and fog early this
morning, then becoming partly cloudy/mostly sunny for the rest of
the day. Isolated shwoers will affect the southern OBX between
Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout early this morning, then remaining
off the coast the rest of the day. High temps a few degrees warmer
than on Sunday - near 90 inland to lower 80s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 400 AM Monday...upper ridge will weaken tonight with short
wave energy approaching from northwest while a surface cold front
approaches from the northwest as well. Models continue to indicate
that scattered showers/tstms will approach from upstream overnight
and no change to previous forecast 20-40% POPs developing late
tonight. Increasing cloudiness and light southerly flow will
result in min temps around 70 inland to mid 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Typical summery pattern through the long term
with diurnally driven isolated to scattered convection most days
and seasonably warm and humid conditions.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...A robust shortwave trough pushing across
the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region will act to break
down the upper ridge while a cold front approaches the region from
the northwest. Better forcing for convection arrives on Tue and
have advertised likely pops for all but coastal locales, where
will have high chance. Severe threat does not look all that
favorable as deep layer shear is only on order of 20 kt or less.
Clouds and precip will keep temps a few degrees below normal with
highs generally in the mid 80s on Tuesday. Any storms will quickly
move south and east and weaken on Tue night so only small pops for
the overnight hours. Lows seasonable with readings 69-74 degrees.

Wednesday through Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow will persist
across the eastern CONUS through the long term. Don`t expect any
particular day to be a washout but scattered showers/thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon through the period with moist
unstable conditions in place. The best chance of showers will be
across the interior zones during the afternoon and early evening
hours when instability is maximized and sea breeze becomes active.
Temps look to be near normal with highs in the upper 80s to around
90s inland and mid 80s coast with lows in the upper 60s to low to
mid 70s.

Sunday...27/00Z long term model suite in fairly good agreement on
a front and stronger short wave dropping south and east into the
Carolinas by late weekend. This will provide a better chance of
showers/storms than the typical summertime sct convection regime.
Have raised pops to high chance as a result. Will have to monitor
for severe potential as kinematics could be more favorable for
organized convection.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through 06Z Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Monday...Current mainly VFR conditions expected to
deteriorate to IFR vsbys and CIGs by around 09Z all sites with
surface conditions conducive to fog and stratus development.
Conditions improving to VFR with heating 12Z-14Z and prevailing
rest of TAF period as high pressure shifts offshore.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Generally VFR through the long term. There may be
tempo reductions to vsby/cigs on Tue as a front approaches the
region and produces sct to widespread showers/storms. More typical
sct/iso thunderstorms Wed through Fri and mainly during the
afternoon hours. Could be some overnight/early morning BR/FG each
night as low level moisture will be high and winds calm/light.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term/Through tonight////
As of 400 AM Monday...high pressure extending over the waters from
southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina will result in
light and varying winds this morning. The high will move offshore
this afternoon with winds becoming southerly around 10 KT and then
south-southwest tonight.

Wave models remain in good agreement with heights 2-3 feet through
tonight.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...High pressure will edge further offshore on
Tuesday as a cool front approaches. Winds will remain relatively
light less than 15 kt however and out of the S. The front moves
into the area and remain stalled across or near the region
through the end of the week. Generally expect descent boating
conditions through the period with winds mainly remaining below 15
kt with seas around 2-4 ft. A few showers and storms could dot the
waters through the period especially during the night time
periods.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270747
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will weaken over the area today as a cold front
approaches from the west early tonight through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Surface and low amplitude mid level ridging weakens today, setting
up a southerly return flow regime featuring warm air and moisture
advection ahead of a cold front sagging southeast out of the Ohio
Valley this evening. With the late arrival of the frontal zone,
partly to mostly sunny skies are on tap which will allow highs to
inch up a bit from Sunday`s mid and upper 80s, with upper 80s north
to widespread 90 to 92 degrees across the southern half of the area.

Strengthening of the low level flow immediately ahead of the slow
moving front will boost precipitable water in the west by sunset,
with the subsequent 1.5 to 2 inch plume settling slowly across the
area overnight. Initial instability in the west may be sufficient
for thunderstorms in the northwest piedmont early this evening, but
instability will be waning with unfavorable diurnal timing
concurrent with the arrival of stronger low level convergence
associated with the H85 trof. In addition, mid level support lags
the eastward progression of the low level forcing so expect only
isolated storms, but scattered to numerous showers overnight,
focused in the west early to central and east after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Upper trof axis rotating across the Appalachians on Tuesday will
provide some missing kinematic ingredients needed for storm
initiation and organization. While shear and instability will be
rather unimpressive (CAPE of ~1.2K Joules) due to cloud coverage and
mid level lapse rates of less than 5.5C/Km, these will be offset by
favorable alignment of modest upper diffluence ahead of the trof
axis and mid level DPA. As such, there is strong consensus in just
about every meso-model available on the development of a squall line
in the early afternoon across the northwest piedmont with subsequent
movement east across the area during the afternoon and early
evening. The convective line moves east of the area around sunset,
with subsequent drying overnight. Highs Tuesday will be hampered by
the cloud coverage and weak cool air advection behind the front,
with most areas topping out in the mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night will
be mostly mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 317 AM Monday...

Cyclonic flow around the broad mid-upr longwave trough over much of
the eastern US will be the general pattern for the long term period.
The surface pattern over the Carolinas will feature a persistent
Piedmont trough that is typical with westerly or west-northwesterly
flow. While the main moisture axis is progged to remain mostly to
our east through the rest of the work week, it appears that there
will be enough moisture lingering over our area, when combined with
the sfc trough and waves embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft, that
20-40 percent pops (highest east) appears warranted...mainly during
the afternoon/evening each day through the period.  Rain chances
will then increase next Sunday as the next sfc front approaches and
moves through the area.

With little airmass change expected...look for temps to remain a few
degrees either side of climo through the period, with the main
influence being cloud and precip coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Patchy IFR/MVFR visibilities are possible in the predawn across the
northeast piedmont and northern coastal plain (RWI TAF, primarily)
as the T/Td spread narrows under clear and calm conditions. VFR
conditions will prevail across the area after 12Z through late day
as high pressure weakens ahead of a cold front sagging south out of
the Ohio Valley early tonight. Expect widely scattered showers after
00Z in the Triad (GSO/INT), with increasing coverage into the east
after 03Z. MVFR conditions will accompany stronger showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

Beyond the 24 hour TAF period, showers and isolated storms are
expected for the remainder of the overnight as the front approaches.
A line of strong thunderstorms will accompany the front on Tuesday
beginning around midday in the west (INT/GSO) and progressing into
the east (RDU/FAY/RWI) areas between 21-00Z.

Beyond Tuesday, the front looks to stall far enough southeast of the
area that to preclude the threat of adverse aviation conditions
outside of isolated diurnal convection from Wednesday through the
weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...mlm




000
FXUS62 KILM 270732
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
332 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain in the area today. A slow moving
cold front will push into the region late Tuesday or Wednesday
increasing rainfall chances midweek. The front will stall in the
area Thursday and Friday keeping temperatures seasonable and
maintaining thunderstorm chances into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Onshore flow in the lower levels will continue
to push widely scattered showers across the coast. Their behavior
once over land will be to dissipate as illustrated by the latest
KLTX 88D trends. Still quite dry in the mid and upper levels this
morning, which will persist into this evening. Via Model RH time
height displays across the FA. Subsidence aloft will tend to put a
lid on any diurnally driven air mass type convection that tries to
develop. Instability may also be in question with different model
opinions for this aftn and again tonight. The GFS and NAM are
basically opposites of one another with the GFS indicating sub 1000
CAPE and the NAM 1500-2000 CAPE. However, forcing from the sea
breeze front and the avbl instability could be enough to produce
isolated Tstorms that break thru this lid this aftn. Todays highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s, except 80-85 along the immediate coast.

The longwave upper ridge affecting the FA this past weekend, will
slowly transition into a longwave upper trof across the FA late
tonight but mainly occurring during the subsequent period. A sfc
cold front well displaced from its parent low, may reach or just
beyond the outskirts of the westernmost counties of the ILM CWA by
Tue daybreak. Have increased POPs and cloud coverage across the ILM
CWA, mainly from Midnight til daybreak Tue. The hier pops will be
reserved closer to the cold front, ie. well inland. Instability for
convective purposes will be avbl if one looks at the NAM and
questionable if 1 looks at the GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...The new upper longwave pattern will become
established early this period. Upper troffing will affect the areas
from the Mississippi River Valley eastward to the Atlantic Coast.
And the upper ridging west of the Mississippi River to the Pacific
Coast. Unfortunately the upper trof axis will lie just west of the
ILM CWA.

At the start of this period, a sfc cold front will be on the
doorsteps of the ILM CWA doorsteps west of the I-95 corridor. Models
basically push the front to the east across portions of the FA
before stalling it oriented NE to SW. Moisture thru the atm column
increases dramatically early Tue and persists thru Wednesday
morning, with peak PWs around 2 inches Tue aftn and evening. With a
progged westerly 5 to 10 kt movement with Tuesday`s convection,
flooding issues will likely become the nemesis across the ILM CWA.
Couple of embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the dynamics to
either initiate or sustain the convection this period. POPs across
the FA will run up to a good chance to possibly likely Tue and Tue
night. POPS will scale back later Wed and Wed Night as the deep
moisture decreases. With the frontal boundary progged to be off the
immediate Carolina coasts late Wed, will lower POPs to low chance
well inland. Temperatures this period will run at or slightly below
normal. The below part is due to the occurrence of cloudiness and
threat of pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Weak front stalled in the area under broad 5h
troughing will maintain diurnal precip chances through the period.
Although the front will be in the region its exact location is hard
to determine on any given day, making pinpointing the areas favored
for precip rather difficult. Precipitable water values around 1.5
inches into next weekend, which is close to climatology for this
time of year, combined with modest mid level lapse rates should
produce daily bouts of diurnal convection. Left over convective
boundaries and the lingering front will likely produce the first
storms each day. Late in the period a slug of deep moisture, with
origins in the eastern Pacific, is spread over the Southeast by
shortwave passing north of the area. This shortwave will help drive
another weakening front into the area Sun. The increased moisture
along with the boundary and diurnal heating may create the best
precip chances during the period. Highs near climo expected with
lows running a little above climo. Exception will be in locations
that experience heavier convection. In these areas highs may run
several degrees below climo.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Ridging from High pressure centered offshore from the
NE states, will remain in control today. the High will slowly
lose its grip across the FA tonight as its center pushes further
offshore. Moisture profiles in the low levels support fog and/or
stratus fractus towards morning, with MVFR across the normally
prone terminals. In addition, the weak onshore flow in the low
levels, will support -shra occasionally moving onshore this
morning. Weak resultant wind boundary will develop by noon and
will push inland thru the afternoon and early evening hours. The
sfc to 700 MB level exhibits light winds, 10 kt or less, resulting
with the sea breeze, se-s around 10 kt, able to push inland
without any impediments. For late today thru tonight, a weak cold
front will approach from the west. Will increase the chance for
convection across the western terminals by midnight. Synoptically,
winds will start out from the ne-ene at 5 kt and slowly veer to
the ese-se 5 to 10 kt, except up to 15 kt across the coastal
terminals due to the mesoscale sea breeze. Winds will further veer
to the sse-s around 5 kt after sunset and thru the evening hours
and overnight.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR except possible brief MVFR/IFR from
the scattered convection each day, except for Tue and Wed where
areas to widespread convection will occur due to a cold front.
Brief MVFR from fog possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Winds and significant seas will slightly
diminish and subside respectively during this period. Although, to
begin with, these parameters were not in any advisory or warning
thresholds. This period will see a veering of the winds this period
from ne-e today, se-s tonight. This a result of the sfc highs center
moving well offshore from the NE States Coast during this period.
The flow on the backside of this high will be highlighted across the
FA. The sfc pg will remain rather relaxed this period, with wind
speeds 5 to 10 kts or around 10 kt. Significant seas will run 2 to 3
ft with the 3 footers occurring off Cape Fear and Romain
respectively. By daybreak Tue, seas will subside to around 2 ft
thruout. An e-ese ground swell at 7 to 9 second periods will
dominate the sig. seas spectrum, Light to moderate showers this
morning, will occasionally move onshore. No lightning with this pcpn
and thus kept Thunder out. This aftn, could see convection along the
sea breeze and for tonight convection may move off the mainland
during the pre-dawn Tue hours.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...The sfc cold front from the near term period
will make some really slow strides to the east, from the I-95
Corridor early Tue and ending up stalled NE-SW across the local
waters by Wednesday Night. As for winds, the High centered over the
High Seas well off the NE States Coast will extend its far reaches
across the local and adjacent waters. Looking at S-SW directions
thru Tue and SW-W during Wednesday. Wavewatch3 indicates a NE wind
by daybreak Thu across the local waters in response to the cold
front progged by the GFS to have moved far enough east into the
offshore waters. Did not buy that scenario as of yet. The sfc pg
remains rather loosened this period with wind speeds thru the Short
Term around 10 kt or possibly just 5 to 10 kt. The stronger s to sw
flow will lie offshore east of the local waters where speeds at 10
to 20 kt are possible.

Significant seas will remain governed by a small easterly ground
swell on Tue, then become mixed with a pseudo se-s swell on Wed due
to the stronger winds just east of the local waters. Overall looking
at around 2 ft with 3 footers occasionally mixing in if the wind
driven waves increase a bit. Dominating periods will run 6 to 8
seconds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Weak front stalled in the area along with
Bermuda High trying to expand west will maintain light but
changeable winds through the period. During the day light
southerly flow is expected but overnight winds may acquire a
northerly/offshore component. Weak gradient will keep speeds 10 kt
or less through the period with seas running 2 ft or less.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270717
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
317 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic tonight, then retreat on Monday. Another
cold front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 935 PM Sunday...

Little adjustment required to the near term forecast.

Surface dry air ridge extends west-southwest/east-northeast across
central NC this evening. This feature supported aloft by a ridge
extending from a parent high positioned over the ARKLATEX will
maintain dry weather overnight with seasonable overnight
temperatures. Residual low level moisture should permit areas of
mostly light fog to develop well after midnight. The fog will
quickly burn off within an hour of sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

A moistening southwesterly flow will take hold on Monday morning
as the surface high shifts further offshore and a prefrontal
plume of 2 inch PW over the Mississippi River Valley translates
east toward the Appalachians. Convection firing along and ahead of
the front will move east through the Appalachians Monday
afternoon, though the (effective) front will be slow moving given
early front-parallel flow and little upper support other than a
weak disturbance moving out of the southern plains. The bulk of
the higher theta e air and is progged to move into the western
Piedmont Monday evening, and models suggest convection - likely
sub-severe given poor diurnal timing and weak mid-level flow -
will percolate across mainly the northern and western portions of
the Piedmont for the first half of Monday night before finally
shifting toward the Coastal Plain by Tuesday morning. Without
better upper forcing, prefer to keep POPs at 40-60 percent during
the overnight period.

Highs Monday should be about 5 degrees warmer than today and more
climatologically distributed in southwest flow; 87-91. Lows
Monday night in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 317 AM Monday...

Cyclonic flow around the broad mid-upr longwave trough over much of
the eastern US will be the general pattern for the long term period.
The surface pattern over the Carolinas will feature a persistent
Piedmont trough that is typical with westerly or west-northwesterly
flow. While the main moisture axis is progged to remain mostly to
our east through the rest of the work week, it appears that there
will be enough moisture lingering over our area, when combined with
the sfc trough and waves embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft, that
20-40 percent pops (highest east) appears warranted...mainly during
the afternoon/evening each day through the period.  Rain chances
will then increase next Sunday as the next sfc front approaches and
moves through the area.

With little airmass change expected...look for temps to remain a few
degrees either side of climo through the period, with the main
influence being cloud and precip coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 840 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue this evening. However, with
mostly clear skies along with the surface ridge axis extending
across the area tonight, it appears that we may see some sub-VFR
conditions develop after midnight. Models indicate a better chance
of fog than stratus tonight. IFR/MVFR visbys will be possible early
Monday morning, mainly at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI, by around 08Z or so
(possibly even LIFR at KRWI). A light southwest wind may limit sub-
VFR conditions at KGSO and KINT. VFR conditions are expected to
return by at least mid morning. Most of Monday will remain dry, with
VFR conditions. However, chances for showers and storms will
increase from NW to SE across the area late Monday, possibly
affecting KGSO/KINT by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Convection and the chance of sub-VFR conditions will
increase Monday night through Wednesday as a cold front moves
into the region from the northwest, though unsettled weather may
continue through the end of the week as the front stalls over the
region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...rah
AVIATION...DUNSTAN/BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 270609
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
209 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Sun...Clouds have diminished most areas with some
stratus persisting NE coast. With light winds shld see decent
radiational cooling allowing temps to reach dewpts and will
likely see some fog/stratus develop inland overnight. No change
to lows with cooler inland spots reaching lower 60s and most
beaches around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 245 PM Sun...Expecting a continuation of the warm and dry
weather Monday. Low clouds and fog in the morning will give way to
afternoon sunshine. The surface high will move offshore late with
a weak return flow developing helping temps to warm into the
middle to upper 80s/near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 pm Sun...Unsettled weather expected throughout the long
term. Frontal boundary will approach from the NW Tuesday night and
slowly settle across the area Wednesday and remain near stationary
through the weekend with moist unstable airmass in place. Timing
of convection for the most part will be diurnally- driven. Will
follow pattern of chance PoPs throughout during the day with
slight chance inland and chance coast and offshore at night. Temps
near seasonal with highs in the mid/upper 80s with lower/mid 80s
Outer Banks, and lows in the upper 60s/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through 06Z Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Monday...Current mainly VFR conditions expected to
deteriorate to IFR vsbys and CIGs by around 09Z all sites with
surface conditions conducive to fog and stratus development.
Conditions improving to VFR with heating 12Z-14Z and prevailing
rest of TAF period as high pressure shifts offshore.

Long Term /Mon night through Fri/
As of 245 pm Sun...Unsettled weather through the period with sub-
VFR in mainly diurnal convection. Late night/early AM fog possible
at terminals that have rain the previous day. Surface winds from
the SW around 5 knots Tuesday, S around 5 knots Wednesday, E
around 5 knots Thursday and S around 5 knots Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 1000 PM Sun...Fcst looks good with no changes planned...ENE
winds around 15 kts shld subside and become more E overnight.

Previous Discussion...High pressure will build over the waters
through the period with veering and diminishing winds. NE winds 10
to 20 kt this afternoon will become east and diminish to 10 kt or
less overnight. Monday light east winds will become south late. 2
to 4 ft seas with a some 5 ft seas outer waters through early this
evening, will become 2 to 3 ft late tonight and Monday.

Long Term /Mon night through Fri/
As of 245 pm Sun...Frontal boundary will approach from the NW
Tuesday night and settle across the area on Wednesday. Flow will
be S to SW for the most part, except on Thursday when the front
may briefly drop S before moving back north Thursday night.
Pressure gradient will not be very tight through the period. Winds
through the period generally 5-15 knots and seas will run 2-4
feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...RF/JME/HSA




000
FXUS62 KILM 270506
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
106 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Weak ridging and dry air aloft will persist
through the overnight hours. Kept the forecast to <15 POPs
overnight, however, with easterly low-level transport an isolated
weak/brief shower may get close to the coast. Otherwise, surface
high pressure continues to migrate off the Mid Atlantic coast with
a weak pressure gradient in place across the forecast area. Patchy
fog is possible with near normal lows from the lower 70s at the
immediate coast to the upper 60s farther inland. No major changes
made to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Ridging from High pressure centered offshore from the
NE states, will remain in control today. the High will slowly
lose its grip across the FA tonight as its center pushes further
offshore. Moisture profiles in the low levels support fog and/or
stratus fractus towards morning, with MVFR across the normally
prone terminals. In addition, the weak onshore flow in the low
levels, will support -shra occasionally moving onshore this
morning. Weak resultant wind boundary will develop by noon and
will push inland thru the afternoon and early evening hours. The
sfc to 700 MB level exhibits light winds, 10 kt or less, resulting
with the sea breeze, se-s around 10 kt, able to push inland
without any impediments. For late today thru tonight, a weak cold
front will approach from the west. Will increase the chance for
convection across the western terminals by midnight. Synoptically,
winds will start out from the ne-ene at 5 kt and slowly veer to
the ese-se 5 to 10 kt, except up to 15 kt across the coastal
terminals due to the mesoscale sea breeze. Winds will further veer
to the sse-s around 5 kt after sunset and thru the evening hours
and overnight.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR except possible brief MVFR/IFR from
the scattered convection each day, except for Tue and Wed where
areas to widespread convection will occur due to a cold front.
Brief MVFR from fog possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Latest marine observations indicate an
easterly wind in place with high pressure moving farther off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind could briefly back to a north-
easterly direction overnight as speeds diminish late. Seas of
3 to 4 ft will gradually subside overnight to 2 to 3 ft. No
major changes made to the current forecast, other than to
introduce isolated to widely scattered showers.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 270506
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
106 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Weak ridging and dry air aloft will persist
through the overnight hours. Kept the forecast to <15 POPs
overnight, however, with easterly low-level transport an isolated
weak/brief shower may get close to the coast. Otherwise, surface
high pressure continues to migrate off the Mid Atlantic coast with
a weak pressure gradient in place across the forecast area. Patchy
fog is possible with near normal lows from the lower 70s at the
immediate coast to the upper 60s farther inland. No major changes
made to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Ridging from High pressure centered offshore from the
NE states, will remain in control today. the High will slowly
lose its grip across the FA tonight as its center pushes further
offshore. Moisture profiles in the low levels support fog and/or
stratus fractus towards morning, with MVFR across the normally
prone terminals. In addition, the weak onshore flow in the low
levels, will support -shra occasionally moving onshore this
morning. Weak resultant wind boundary will develop by noon and
will push inland thru the afternoon and early evening hours. The
sfc to 700 MB level exhibits light winds, 10 kt or less, resulting
with the sea breeze, se-s around 10 kt, able to push inland
without any impediments. For late today thru tonight, a weak cold
front will approach from the west. Will increase the chance for
convection across the western terminals by midnight. Synoptically,
winds will start out from the ne-ene at 5 kt and slowly veer to
the ese-se 5 to 10 kt, except up to 15 kt across the coastal
terminals due to the mesoscale sea breeze. Winds will further veer
to the sse-s around 5 kt after sunset and thru the evening hours
and overnight.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR except possible brief MVFR/IFR from
the scattered convection each day, except for Tue and Wed where
areas to widespread convection will occur due to a cold front.
Brief MVFR from fog possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Latest marine observations indicate an
easterly wind in place with high pressure moving farther off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind could briefly back to a north-
easterly direction overnight as speeds diminish late. Seas of
3 to 4 ft will gradually subside overnight to 2 to 3 ft. No
major changes made to the current forecast, other than to
introduce isolated to widely scattered showers.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 270503
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
103 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Weak ridging and dry air aloft will persist
through the overnight hours. Kept the forecast to <15 POPs
overnight, however, with easterly low-level transport an isolated
weak/brief shower may get close to the coast. Otherwise, surface
high pressure continues to migrate off the Mid Atlantic coast with
a weak pressure gradient in place across the forecast area. Patchy
fog is possible with near normal lows from the lower 70s at the
immediate coast to the upper 60s farther inland. No major changes
made to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Ridging from High pressure centered offshore from the
NE states, will remain in control today. the High will slowly
lose its grip across the FA tonight as its center pushes further
offshore. Moisture profiles in the low levels support fog and/or
stratus fractus towards morning, with MVFR across the normally
prone terminals. Weak resultant wind boundary will develop by
noon and will push inland thru the afternoon and early evening
hours. The sfc to 700 MB level exhibits light winds, 10 kt or
less, resulting with the sea breeze, se-s around 10 kt, able to
push inland without any impediments. For late today thru tonight,
a weak cold front will approach from the west. Will increase the
chance for convection across the western terminals by midnight.
Synoptically, winds will start out from the ne-ene at 5 kt and
slowly veer to the ese-se 5 to 10 kt, except up to 15 kt across
the coastal terminals due to the mesoscale sea breeze. Winds will
further veer to the sse-s around 5 kt after sunset and thru the
evening hours and overnight.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR except possible brief MVFR/IFR from
the scattered convection each day, except for Tue and Wed where
areas to widespread convection will occur due to a cold front.
Brief MVFR from fog possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Latest marine observations indicate an
easterly wind in place with high pressure moving farther off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind could briefly back to a north-
easterly direction overnight as speeds diminish late. Seas of
3 to 4 ft will gradually subside overnight to 2 to 3 ft. No
major changes made to the current forecast, other than to
introduce isolated to widely scattered showers.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 270247
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1047 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Weak ridging and dry air aloft will persist
through the overnight hours. Kept the forecast to <15 POPs
overnight, however, with easterly low-level transport an isolated
weak/brief shower may get close to the coast. Otherwise, surface
high pressure continues to migrate off the Mid Atlantic coast with
a weak pressure gradient in place across the forecast area. Patchy
fog is possible with near normal lows from the lower 70s at the
immediate coast to the upper 60s farther inland. No major changes
made to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...High pressure will remain in control through the
forecast period. Moisture profiles mildly support fog toward
morning, probably MVFR with LBT looking the most likely. Monday
a weak cold front will approach from the west but will still be
west of the CWA at the end of the forecast period. Light winds
will be replaced by a southeast resultant by early afternoon
along the coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Latest marine observations indicate an
easterly wind in place with high pressure moving farther off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind could briefly back to a north-
easterly direction overnight as speeds diminish late. Seas of
3 to 4 ft will gradually subside overnight to 2 to 3 ft. No
major changes made to the current forecast, other than to
introduce isolated to widely scattered showers.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 270247
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1047 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Weak ridging and dry air aloft will persist
through the overnight hours. Kept the forecast to <15 POPs
overnight, however, with easterly low-level transport an isolated
weak/brief shower may get close to the coast. Otherwise, surface
high pressure continues to migrate off the Mid Atlantic coast with
a weak pressure gradient in place across the forecast area. Patchy
fog is possible with near normal lows from the lower 70s at the
immediate coast to the upper 60s farther inland. No major changes
made to the current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...High pressure will remain in control through the
forecast period. Moisture profiles mildly support fog toward
morning, probably MVFR with LBT looking the most likely. Monday
a weak cold front will approach from the west but will still be
west of the CWA at the end of the forecast period. Light winds
will be replaced by a southeast resultant by early afternoon
along the coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...Latest marine observations indicate an
easterly wind in place with high pressure moving farther off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind could briefly back to a north-
easterly direction overnight as speeds diminish late. Seas of
3 to 4 ft will gradually subside overnight to 2 to 3 ft. No
major changes made to the current forecast, other than to
introduce isolated to widely scattered showers.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KMHX 270201
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Sun...Clouds have diminished most areas with some
stratus persisting NE coast. With light winds shld see decent
radiational cooling allowing temps to reach dewpts and will
likely see some fog/stratus develop inland overnight. No change
to lows with cooler inland spots reaching lower 60s and most
beaches around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sun...Expecting a continuation of the warm and dry
weather Monday. Low clouds and fog in the morning will give way to
afternoon sunshine. The surface high will move offshore late with
a weak return flow developing helping temps to warm into the
middle to upper 80s/near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 pm Sun...Unsettled weather expected throughout the long
term. Frontal boundary will approach from the NW Tuesday night and
slowly settle across the area Wednesday and remain near stationary
through the weekend with moist unstable airmass in place. Timing
of convection for the most part will be diurnally- driven. Will
follow pattern of chance PoPs throughout during the day with
slight chance inland and chance coast and offshore at night. Temps
near seasonal with highs in the mid/upper 80s with lower/mid 80s
Outer Banks, and lows in the upper 60s/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 600 PM Sun...Mainly VFR thru the evening with SCU continuing
to scatter out. Decent confidence for period of IFR/LIFR stratus
and fog later tonight with light/moist E flow. SREF/HRRR and
forecast soundings all show pretty strong potential for this to
occur and expect most sites to see IFR or worse from roughly 08Z
to 13Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by 14 to 15Z Monday
as high pressure continues to influence the weather with low
clouds quickly lifting/dissipating.

Long Term /Mon night through Fri/
As of 245 pm Sun...Unsettled weather through the period with sub-
VFR in mainly diurnal convection. Late night/early AM fog possible
at terminals that have rain the previous day. Surface winds from
the SW around 5 knots Tuesday, S around 5 knots Wednesday, E
around 5 knots Thursday and S around 5 knots Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 1000 PM Sun...Fcst looks good with no changes planned...ENE
winds around 15 kts shld subside and become more E overnight.

Previous Discussion...High pressure will build over the waters
through the period with veering and diminishing winds. NE winds 10
to 20 kt this afternoon will become east and diminish to 10 kt or
less overnight. Monday light east winds will become south late. 2
to 4 ft seas with a some 5 ft seas outer waters through early this
evening, will become 2 to 3 ft late tonight and Monday.

Long Term /Mon night through Fri/
As of 245 pm Sun...Frontal boundary will approach from the NW
Tuesday night and settle across the area on Wednesday. Flow will
be S to SW for the most part, except on Thursday when the front
may briefly drop S before moving back north Thursday night.
Pressure gradient will not be very tight through the period. Winds
through the period generally 5-15 knots and seas will run 2-4
feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/JME/HSA




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270136
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
935 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic tonight, then retreat on Monday. Another
cold front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 935 PM Sunday...

Little adjustment required to the near term forecast.

Surface dry air ridge extends west-southwest/east-northeast across
central NC this evening. This feature supported aloft by a ridge
extending from a parent high positioned over the ARKLATEX will
maintain dry weather overnight with seasonable overnight
temperatures. Residual low level moisture should permit areas of
mostly light fog to develop well after midnight. The fog will
quickly burn off within an hour of sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

A moistening southwesterly flow will take hold on Monday morning
as the surface high shifts further offshore and a prefrontal
plume of 2 inch PW over the Mississippi River Valley translates
east toward the Appalachians. Convection firing along and ahead of
the front will move east through the Appalachians Monday
afternoon, though the (effective) front will be slow moving given
early front-parallel flow and little upper support other than a
weak disturbance moving out of the southern plains. The bulk of
the higher theta e air and is progged to move into the western
Piedmont Monday evening, and models suggest convection - likely
sub-severe given poor diurnal timing and weak mid-level flow -
will percolate across mainly the northern and western portions of
the Piedmont for the first half of Monday night before finally
shifting toward the Coastal Plain by Tuesday morning. Without
better upper forcing, prefer to keep POPs at 40-60 percent during
the overnight period.

Highs Monday should be about 5 degrees warmer than today and more
climatologically distributed in southwest flow; 87-91. Lows
Monday night in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Convection --likely sub-severe multi-cell-- may be ongoing across
central NC early Tue, especially in the vicinity of a sfc-850 mb
trough axis that the models indicate will stretch from NNE to SSW
across central counties (roughly near U.S highway 1), and in
association with a mid level shear axis and possible MCV`s from
prior convection. This trough axis, and what will likely become an
effective lead frontal zone, will then drift across the Coastal
Plain through Tue afternoon, where it will focus scattered to
numerous showers and storms. While mid-upper level cyclonic flow
will strengthen at the base of a parent shortwave trough across the
Great Lakes, widespread multi-layered cloud cover and generally weak
mid level lapse rates will hinder destabilization, and consequently
limit the threat of severe weather. Temperatures will average middle
80s on Tue, probably highest over the Piedmont, on the back edge of
the aforementioned multi-layered cloud clover.

A secondary low level frontal zone, and perhaps a widely scattered
shower or storm, will drift SE across central NC Tue night, with an
associated following drier /more stable/ NWLY low level flow
expected through the first half of Wed. That boundary will then
stall along the SERN half of central NC and become a focus for
showers and storms Wed afternoon.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN U.S.,
while the aforementioned low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough will linger along the
Gulf Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states. Another
frontal zone is forecast to settle across the Middle Atlantic States
this weekend, where it too will have the same fate as the preceding
ones and stall nearby and focus a continued above average
probability of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 840 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue this evening. However, with
mostly clear skies along with the surface ridge axis extending
across the area tonight, it appears that we may see some sub-VFR
conditions develop after midnight. Models indicate a better chance
of fog than stratus tonight. IFR/MVFR visbys will be possible early
Monday morning, mainly at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI, by around 08Z or so
(possibly even LIFR at KRWI). A light southwest wind may limit sub-
VFR conditions at KGSO and KINT. VFR conditions are expected to
return by at least mid morning. Most of Monday will remain dry, with
VFR conditions. However, chances for showers and storms will
increase from NW to SE across the area late Monday, possibly
affecting KGSO/KINT by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Convection and the chance of sub-VFR conditions will
increase Monday night through Wednesday as a cold front moves
into the region from the northwest, though unsettled weather may
continue through the end of the week as the front stalls over the
region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DUNSTAN/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270115
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
915 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic tonight, then retreat on Monday. Another
cold front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

1040mb high pressure and centered off the NJ coast and its dry
air ridge extend across central NC today, resulting in fair
conditions with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s and a much
more stable airmass than past days. Thus, there is little impact
from a shallow upper disturbance passing overhead on the northeast
periphery of the Deep South upper ridge. PW, down below 0.75
inches today, will remain low tonight, and clear skies over the
surface ridge may lead to areas of fog late tonight, mainly east
of US 1 based on statistical and ensemble guidance. Lows 64-69,
coolest northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

A moistening southwesterly flow will take hold on Monday morning
as the surface high shifts further offshore and a prefrontal
plume of 2 inch PW over the Mississippi River Valley translates
east toward the Appalachians. Convection firing along and ahead of
the front will move east through the Appalachians Monday
afternoon, though the (effective) front will be slow moving given
early front-parallel flow and little upper support other than a
weak disturbance moving out of the southern plains. The bulk of
the higher theta e air and is progged to move into the western
Piedmont Monday evening, and models suggest convection - likely
sub-severe given poor diurnal timing and weak mid-level flow -
will percolate across mainly the northern and western portions of
the Piedmont for the first half of Monday night before finally
shifting toward the Coastal Plain by Tuesday morning. Without
better upper forcing, prefer to keep POPs at 40-60 percent during
the overnight period.

Highs Monday should be about 5 degrees warmer than today and more
climatologically distributed in southwest flow; 87-91. Lows
Monday night in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Convection --likely sub-severe multi-cell-- may be ongoing across
central NC early Tue, especially in the vicinity of a sfc-850 mb
trough axis that the models indicate will stretch from NNE to SSW
across central counties (roughly near U.S highway 1), and in
association with a mid level shear axis and possible MCV`s from
prior convection. This trough axis, and what will likely become an
effective lead frontal zone, will then drift across the Coastal
Plain through Tue afternoon, where it will focus scattered to
numerous showers and storms. While mid-upper level cyclonic flow
will strengthen at the base of a parent shortwave trough across the
Great Lakes, widespread multi-layered cloud cover and generally weak
mid level lapse rates will hinder destabilization, and consequently
limit the threat of severe weather. Temperatures will average middle
80s on Tue, probably highest over the Piedmont, on the back edge of
the aforementioned multi-layered cloud clover.

A secondary low level frontal zone, and perhaps a widely scattered
shower or storm, will drift SE across central NC Tue night, with an
associated following drier /more stable/ NWLY low level flow
expected through the first half of Wed. That boundary will then
stall along the SERN half of central NC and become a focus for
showers and storms Wed afternoon.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN U.S.,
while the aforementioned low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough will linger along the
Gulf Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states. Another
frontal zone is forecast to settle across the Middle Atlantic States
this weekend, where it too will have the same fate as the preceding
ones and stall nearby and focus a continued above average
probability of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 840 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue this evening. However, with
mostly clear skies along with the surface ridge axis extending
across the area tonight, it appears that we may see some sub-VFR
conditions develop after midnight. Models indicate a better chance
of fog than stratus tonight. IFR/MVFR visbys will be possible early
Monday morning, mainly at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI, by around 08Z or so
(possibly even LIFR at KRWI). A light southwest wind may limit sub-
VFR conditions at KGSO and KINT. VFR conditions are expected to
return by at least mid morning. Most of Monday will remain dry, with
VFR conditions. However, chances for showers and storms will
increase from NW to SE across the area late Monday, possibly
affecting KGSO/KINT by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Convection and the chance of sub-VFR conditions will
increase Monday night through Wednesday as a cold front moves
into the region from the northwest, though unsettled weather may
continue through the end of the week as the front stalls over the
region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DUNSTAN/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 262322
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...Northeast resultant boundary has pushed inland
some, however with ample dry air aloft showers have been hard
pressed to develop this afternoon. Can`t entirely rule out a
brief/stray shower over the next couple hours, but with only trace
amounts and little coverage expected will not carry a POP through
the evening. The forecast is on track, though did include mention of
patchy fog during the overnight.

Previous Discussion...Dry air aloft keeping a firm lid on convection
this afternoon. A brief pop up shower near Andrews or Lambert in
Georgetown county between 3PM-6PM would not be astonishing, but
overall a tranquil evening and overnight period on tap. Low level
convergence offshore of NE SC could trip off a few low-topped
showers late tonight as diurnal buoyancy increases over the waters
late. The steering flow may direct a few of these near Winyah Bay
but isolated at best and after 6z. Land minimums overnight 67-72 as
slightly drier air and mainly clear skies allow good cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...High pressure will remain in control through the
forecast period. Moisture profiles mildly support fog toward
morning, probably MVFR with LBT looking the most likely. Monday
a weak cold front will approach from the west but will still be
west of the CWA at the end of the forecast period. Light winds
will be replaced by a southeast resultant by early afternoon
along the coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...Northeast winds around 15 knots prevail
with gusts to 20 knots, while inshore the sea breeze has allowed
for east to southeast winds. The wind will become northeast all
portions of the coastal waters overnight with speeds of 10 knots.
Seas will be 3 to 4 ft this evening, then subsiding to 2 to 3 ft
overnight as the winds diminish.

Previous Discussion...Compliant marine conditions fully free of
advisories or caution statements to prevail overnight. A few
showers will dot the waters but no threat of TSTMS expected on
the 0-20 NM zone. Seas will be a composite of ENE-E waves 1-2 FT
every 4-5 seconds and SE waves 1-2 FT every 8-9 seconds, yielding
2-3 FT significant wave heights.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 262322
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...Northeast resultant boundary has pushed inland
some, however with ample dry air aloft showers have been hard
pressed to develop this afternoon. Can`t entirely rule out a
brief/stray shower over the next couple hours, but with only trace
amounts and little coverage expected will not carry a POP through
the evening. The forecast is on track, though did include mention of
patchy fog during the overnight.

Previous Discussion...Dry air aloft keeping a firm lid on convection
this afternoon. A brief pop up shower near Andrews or Lambert in
Georgetown county between 3PM-6PM would not be astonishing, but
overall a tranquil evening and overnight period on tap. Low level
convergence offshore of NE SC could trip off a few low-topped
showers late tonight as diurnal buoyancy increases over the waters
late. The steering flow may direct a few of these near Winyah Bay
but isolated at best and after 6z. Land minimums overnight 67-72 as
slightly drier air and mainly clear skies allow good cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...High pressure will remain in control through the
forecast period. Moisture profiles mildly support fog toward
morning, probably MVFR with LBT looking the most likely. Monday
a weak cold front will approach from the west but will still be
west of the CWA at the end of the forecast period. Light winds
will be replaced by a southeast resultant by early afternoon
along the coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...Northeast winds around 15 knots prevail
with gusts to 20 knots, while inshore the sea breeze has allowed
for east to southeast winds. The wind will become northeast all
portions of the coastal waters overnight with speeds of 10 knots.
Seas will be 3 to 4 ft this evening, then subsiding to 2 to 3 ft
overnight as the winds diminish.

Previous Discussion...Compliant marine conditions fully free of
advisories or caution statements to prevail overnight. A few
showers will dot the waters but no threat of TSTMS expected on
the 0-20 NM zone. Seas will be a composite of ENE-E waves 1-2 FT
every 4-5 seconds and SE waves 1-2 FT every 8-9 seconds, yielding
2-3 FT significant wave heights.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 262231
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
632 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Dry air aloft keeping a firm lid on
convection this afternoon. A brief pop up shower near Andrews or
Lambert in Georgetown county between 3PM-6PM would not be
astonishing, but overall a tranquil evening and overnight period
on tap. Low level convergence offshore of NE SC could trip off a
few low-topped showers late tonight as diurnal buoyancy increases
over the waters late. The steering flow may direct a few of these
near Winyah Bay but isolated at best and after 6z. Land minimums
overnight 67-72 as slightly drier air and mainly clear skies allow
good cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...High pressure will remain in control through the
forecast period. Moisture profiles mildly support fog toward
morning, probably MVFR with LBT looking the most likely. Monday
a weak cold front will approach from the west but will still be
west of the CWA at the end of the forecast period. Light winds
will be replaced by a southeast resultant by early afternoon
along the coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Compliant marine conditions fully free of
advisories or caution statements to prevail overnight. A few
showers will dot the waters but no threat of TSTMS expected on the
0-20 NM zone. Seas will be a composite of ENE-E waves 1-2 FT every
4-5 seconds and SE waves 1-2 FT every 8-9 seconds, yielding 2-3 FT
significant wave heights.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW




000
FXUS62 KMHX 262205
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
605 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 PM Sun...Added isolated SHRA for portions of Carteret
county north to western Pamlico Sound as have just enough weak
instab to generate a few shra. These shld die off quickly by sunset
with no other changes planned.

Previous Discussion...High pressure surface and aloft will
continue over the area tonight. Late this evening winds will
decouple and with mostly clear skies, strong radiational cooling
will occur. With a moist easterly low level flow prevailing and
dewpoints forecast to remain well into the 60s, conditions look
favorable for patches of fog, locally dense, to occur after
midnight. Overnight lows will be in the middle 60s inland and
upper 60s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sun...Expecting a continuation of the warm and dry
weather Monday. Low clouds and fog in the morning will give way to
afternoon sunshine. The surface high will move offshore late with
a weak return flow developing helping temps to warm into the
middle to upper 80s/near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 pm Sun...Unsettled weather expected throughout the long
term. Frontal boundary will approach from the NW Tuesday night and
slowly settle across the area Wednesday and remain near stationary
through the weekend with moist unstable airmass in place. Timing
of convection for the most part will be diurnally- driven. Will
follow pattern of chance PoPs throughout during the day with
slight chance inland and chance coast and offshore at night. Temps
near seasonal with highs in the mid/upper 80s with lower/mid 80s
Outer Banks, and lows in the upper 60s/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 600 PM Sun...Mainly VFR thru the evening with SCU continuing
to scatter out. Decent confidence for period of IFR/LIFR stratus
and fog later tonight with light/moist E flow. SREF/HRRR and
forecast soundings all show pretty strong potential for this to
occur and expect most sites to see IFR or worse from roughly 08Z
to 13Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by 14 to 15Z Monday
as high pressure continues to influence the weather with low
clouds quickly lifting/dissipating.

Long Term /Mon night through Fri/
As of 245 pm Sun...Unsettled weather through the period with sub-
VFR in mainly diurnal convection. Late night/early AM fog possible
at terminals that have rain the previous day. Surface winds from
the SW around 5 knots Tuesday, S around 5 knots Wednesday, E
around 5 knots Thursday and S around 5 knots Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 600 PM Sun...Fcst looks good with no changes planned.

Previous Discussion...High pressure will build over the waters
through the period with veering and diminishing winds. NE winds 10
to 20 kt this afternoon will become east and diminish to 10 kt or
less overnight. Monday light east winds will become south late. 2
to 4 ft seas with a some 5 ft seas outer waters through early this
evening, will become 2 to 3 ft late tonight and Monday.

Long Term /Mon night through Fri/
As of 245 pm Sun...Frontal boundary will approach from the NW
Tuesday night and settle across the area on Wednesday. Flow will
be S to SW for the most part, except on Thursday when the front
may briefly drop S before moving back north Thursday night.
Pressure gradient will not be very tight through the period. Winds
through the period generally 5-15 knots and seas will run 2-4
feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/JME/HSA
MARINE...RF/JME/HSA




000
FXUS62 KILM 261930
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Dry air aloft keeping a firm lid on
convection this afternoon. A brief pop up shower near Andrews or
Lambert in Georgetown county between 3PM-6PM would not be
astonishing, but overall a tranquil evening and overnight period
on tap. Low level convergence offshore of NE SC could trip off a
few low-topped showers late tonight as diurnal buoyancy increases
over the waters late. The steering flow may direct a few of these
near Winyah Bay but isolated at best and after 6z. Land minimums
overnight 67-72 as slightly drier air and mainly clear skies allow
good cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR conditions should persist through most of the
period. Dry air is slowly advancing from north to south as high
pressure pushes down from the Mid Atlantic region. The area of
scattered to broken moisture currently along the coast should mix
out/dissipate via high resolution guidance. For the late
evening/early morning hours some MVFR BR is possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Compliant marine conditions fully free of
advisories or caution statements to prevail overnight. A few
showers will dot the waters but no threat of TSTMS expected on the
0-20 NM zone. Seas will be a composite of ENE-E waves 1-2 FT every
4-5 seconds and SE waves 1-2 FT every 8-9 seconds, yielding 2-3 FT
significant wave heights.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MJC/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 261930
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through Monday. A
slow moving cold front will bring increasing rain chances Tuesday
and Wednesday. This front will stall and waver in the vicinity
through Friday creating seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm
chances. Warmer temperatures will develop next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Dry air aloft keeping a firm lid on
convection this afternoon. A brief pop up shower near Andrews or
Lambert in Georgetown county between 3PM-6PM would not be
astonishing, but overall a tranquil evening and overnight period
on tap. Low level convergence offshore of NE SC could trip off a
few low-topped showers late tonight as diurnal buoyancy increases
over the waters late. The steering flow may direct a few of these
near Winyah Bay but isolated at best and after 6z. Land minimums
overnight 67-72 as slightly drier air and mainly clear skies allow
good cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Main caption this period is the approach
and stall of a cold front along the coast. No clear windshift seen
Tuesday but the feature should bring a good chance of showers and
a few TSTMS late Monday onward. Latest QPF blends show up to an
inch inland Monday night through Wednesday daybreak, and up to a
half inch along the coast. The SPC maintains just general TSTMS
and no severe signals presently lurk on the horizon. Temperatures
very near climate averages this period, although clouds and rain
cooled air Tuesday could result in a higher variance in maximum
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front will waver in the vicinity Wed-Fri
before lifting north of the area for next weekend. While this front
is weak, suggesting little air mass chance through the period, it
will combine with seasonable PWATs and enhanced ML-lapse rates
beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough to produce a good chance for
diurnal convection each aftn. Hard to pinpoint exactly when the best
precip chances will occur and the GFS/ECM are very different with
the placement of the front each day. Regardless, precip chances look
good each day - with above climo POP expected with diurnal
enhancement. By Saturday, the front will be NW of the CWA as it gets
lifted both by the expansion of the Bermuda high, and shortwave
ridging downstream of another trough digging through the TN valley.
Sat may feature the lowest POP and warmest temps, before the TN
valley trough dives across the area on Sunday bringing the front
back across the Carolinas with increasing rain chances once again.
Temps this period will be around climo for both highs and lows,
warming above climo next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR conditions should persist through most of the
period. Dry air is slowly advancing from north to south as high
pressure pushes down from the Mid Atlantic region. The area of
scattered to broken moisture currently along the coast should mix
out/dissipate via high resolution guidance. For the late
evening/early morning hours some MVFR BR is possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Compliant marine conditions fully free of
advisories or caution statements to prevail overnight. A few
showers will dot the waters but no threat of TSTMS expected on the
0-20 NM zone. Seas will be a composite of ENE-E waves 1-2 FT every
4-5 seconds and SE waves 1-2 FT every 8-9 seconds, yielding 2-3 FT
significant wave heights.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-time conditions this
period as 10-15 KT SW winds prevail and generally 2-3 foot seas.
S-SSW wind waves of short period will co- mingle with 1-2 ft SE
waves every 8-9 seconds as high pressure remains positioned
offshore. A cold front will stall along the coast Tuesday onward
so we will see an uptick in showers and TSTMS then. Other than the
threat of cloud to sea lightning Tuesday and Tuesday night, no
other marine hazards are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak cold front will meander in the
vicinity through the end of the week, but little change in wind
direction or conditions are expected. The exception is most likely
Wednesday night into Thursday when the front may push offshore
enough for a wind shift to the NE, before returning quickly to the
SE Thursday aftn. Otherwise, SW winds will be predominant both
Wednesday and Friday. Speeds through the period will be 10 kts or
less, regardless of direction. This will produce fairly uniform
marine conditions through the period, with seas of 2-3 ft formed
by a southerly wind wave and SE 8 sec swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MJC/JDW




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261927
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
327 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic tonight, then retreat on Monday. Another
cold front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

1040mb high pressure and centered off the NJ coast and its dry
air ridge extend across central NC today, resulting in fair
conditions with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s and a much
more stable airmass than past days. Thus, there is little impact
from a shallow upper disturbance passing overhead on the northeast
periphery of the Deep South upper ridge. PW, down below 0.75
inches today, will remain low tonight, and clear skies over the
surface ridge may lead to areas of fog late tonight, mainly east
of US 1 based on statistical and ensemble guidance. Lows 64-69,
coolest northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

A moistening southwesterly flow will take hold on Monday morning
as the surface high shifts further offshore and a prefrontal
plume of 2 inch PW over the Mississippi River Valley translates
east toward the Appalachians. Convection firing along and ahead of
the front will move east through the Appalachians Monday
afternoon, though the (effective) front will be slow moving given
early front-parallel flow and little upper support other than a
weak disturbance moving out of the southern plains. The bulk of
the higher theta e air and is progged to move into the western
Piedmont Monday evening, and models suggest convection - likely
sub-severe given poor diurnal timing and weak mid-level flow -
will percolate across mainly the northern and western portions of
the Piedmont for the first half of Monday night before finally
shifting toward the Coastal Plain by Tuesday morning. Without
better upper forcing, prefer to keep POPs at 40-60 percent during
the overnight period.

Highs Monday should be about 5 degrees warmer than today and more
climatologically distributed in southwest flow; 87-91. Lows
Monday night in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Convection --likely sub-severe multi-cell-- may be ongoing across
central NC early Tue, especially in the vicinity of a sfc-850 mb
trough axis that the models indicate will stretch from NNE to SSW
across central counties (roughly near U.S highway 1), and in
association with a mid level shear axis and possible MCV`s from
prior convection. This trough axis, and what will likely become an
effective lead frontal zone, will then drift across the Coastal
Plain through Tue afternoon, where it will focus scattered to
numerous showers and storms. While mid-upper level cyclonic flow
will strengthen at the base of a parent shortwave trough across the
Great Lakes, widespread multi-layered cloud cover and generally weak
mid level lapse rates will hinder destabilization, and consequently
limit the threat of severe weather. Temperatures will average middle
80s on Tue, probably highest over the Piedmont, on the back edge of
the aforementioned multi-layered cloud clover.

A secondary low level frontal zone, and perhaps a widely scattered
shower or storm, will drift SE across central NC Tue night, with an
associated following drier /more stable/ NWLY low level flow
expected through the first half of Wed. That boundary will then
stall along the SERN half of central NC and become a focus for
showers and storms Wed afternoon.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN U.S.,
while the aforementioned low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough will linger along the
Gulf Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states. Another
frontal zone is forecast to settle across the Middle Atlantic States
this weekend, where it too will have the same fate as the preceding
ones and stall nearby and focus a continued above average
probability of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions today with high pressure over the area and drier
air filtering in from the northeast. Cumulus fields over the
western Piedmont and Coastal Plain will dissipate this evening.
and models indicate a better chance of fog than stratus tonight
with the ridge axis extending through the central Piedmont. IFR
vsbys seem fairly likely at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI by 09Z, possibly as low
as LIFR/VLIFR at KRWI. A light southwest wind may limit sub- VFR
conditions at KGSO and KINT.

VFR conditions are expected for most of the day on monday as a
southwest wind takes hold across the entire area.

Outlook: Convection and the chance of sub-VFR conditions will
increase Monday night through Wednesday as a cold front moves
into the region from the northwest, though unsettled weather may
continue through the end of the week as the front stalls over the
region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261927
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
327 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic tonight, then retreat on Monday. Another
cold front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

1040mb high pressure and centered off the NJ coast and its dry
air ridge extend across central NC today, resulting in fair
conditions with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s and a much
more stable airmass than past days. Thus, there is little impact
from a shallow upper disturbance passing overhead on the northeast
periphery of the Deep South upper ridge. PW, down below 0.75
inches today, will remain low tonight, and clear skies over the
surface ridge may lead to areas of fog late tonight, mainly east
of US 1 based on statistical and ensemble guidance. Lows 64-69,
coolest northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...

A moistening southwesterly flow will take hold on Monday morning
as the surface high shifts further offshore and a prefrontal
plume of 2 inch PW over the Mississippi River Valley translates
east toward the Appalachians. Convection firing along and ahead of
the front will move east through the Appalachians Monday
afternoon, though the (effective) front will be slow moving given
early front-parallel flow and little upper support other than a
weak disturbance moving out of the southern plains. The bulk of
the higher theta e air and is progged to move into the western
Piedmont Monday evening, and models suggest convection - likely
sub-severe given poor diurnal timing and weak mid-level flow -
will percolate across mainly the northern and western portions of
the Piedmont for the first half of Monday night before finally
shifting toward the Coastal Plain by Tuesday morning. Without
better upper forcing, prefer to keep POPs at 40-60 percent during
the overnight period.

Highs Monday should be about 5 degrees warmer than today and more
climatologically distributed in southwest flow; 87-91. Lows
Monday night in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Convection --likely sub-severe multi-cell-- may be ongoing across
central NC early Tue, especially in the vicinity of a sfc-850 mb
trough axis that the models indicate will stretch from NNE to SSW
across central counties (roughly near U.S highway 1), and in
association with a mid level shear axis and possible MCV`s from
prior convection. This trough axis, and what will likely become an
effective lead frontal zone, will then drift across the Coastal
Plain through Tue afternoon, where it will focus scattered to
numerous showers and storms. While mid-upper level cyclonic flow
will strengthen at the base of a parent shortwave trough across the
Great Lakes, widespread multi-layered cloud cover and generally weak
mid level lapse rates will hinder destabilization, and consequently
limit the threat of severe weather. Temperatures will average middle
80s on Tue, probably highest over the Piedmont, on the back edge of
the aforementioned multi-layered cloud clover.

A secondary low level frontal zone, and perhaps a widely scattered
shower or storm, will drift SE across central NC Tue night, with an
associated following drier /more stable/ NWLY low level flow
expected through the first half of Wed. That boundary will then
stall along the SERN half of central NC and become a focus for
showers and storms Wed afternoon.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN U.S.,
while the aforementioned low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough will linger along the
Gulf Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states. Another
frontal zone is forecast to settle across the Middle Atlantic States
this weekend, where it too will have the same fate as the preceding
ones and stall nearby and focus a continued above average
probability of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions today with high pressure over the area and drier
air filtering in from the northeast. Cumulus fields over the
western Piedmont and Coastal Plain will dissipate this evening.
and models indicate a better chance of fog than stratus tonight
with the ridge axis extending through the central Piedmont. IFR
vsbys seem fairly likely at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI by 09Z, possibly as low
as LIFR/VLIFR at KRWI. A light southwest wind may limit sub- VFR
conditions at KGSO and KINT.

VFR conditions are expected for most of the day on monday as a
southwest wind takes hold across the entire area.

Outlook: Convection and the chance of sub-VFR conditions will
increase Monday night through Wednesday as a cold front moves
into the region from the northwest, though unsettled weather may
continue through the end of the week as the front stalls over the
region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261918
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
318 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold
front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Sunday...

Only real changes to the forecast were to remove the remaining
mention of clouds and lower dewpoints a touch given how quickly
the drier low-level air has invaded from the northeast. Water
vapor imagery suggests there is a shallow upper level disturbance
dropping south on the northeast periphery of the ridge building
over the deep south, but increased static stability and PW well
below an inch will prohibit any lift today, with just some passing
mid and how clouds. Highs are in line with the observed 12z
1000-850mb thickness of 1394m at GSO; 83-89 northeast to
southwest. -BS

Short wave ridge axis from the western gulf coast into the Great
Lakes region shifts east over the area Sunday night. This will
maintain clear skies, even as the surface high off the New England
coast weakens with modest low level moisture advection ongoing in
return flow by sunrise. Mins will be persistence, mostly in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Moisture will be increasing in the west Monday morning, and
spreading into the east during the afternoon in return flow ahead of
a slow moving front. There will be a chance of afternoon convection
in the west, but convection will be suppressed in the east which
will be under a weakening short wave ridge aloft. Highs will be on
the uptick in the warm air advection regime supplemented by partly
to mostly sunny skies, with most areas within a degree or two either
side of 90.

The slow moving front will creep into the northwest early Monday
night and shower coverage will increase across all of central NC.
Thunder potential, especially for strong storms, will be lessened by
unfavorable diurnal timing and lack of elevated mixed layer, but
scattered storms will be possible due to strong low level
convergence and hints of mid level disturbances in westerly flow.
Mins will be a little warmer, 70-ish, due to heavier cloud coverage
and continued southwest flow prior to fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Convection --likely sub-severe multi-cell-- may be ongoing across
central NC early Tue, especially in the vicinity of a sfc-850 mb
trough axis that the models indicate will stretch from NNE to SSW
across central counties (roughly near U.S highway 1), and in
association with a mid level shear axis and possible MCV`s from
prior convection. This trough axis, and what will likely become an
effective lead frontal zone, will then drift across the Coastal
Plain through Tue afternoon, where it will focus scattered to
numerous showers and storms. While mid-upper level cyclonic flow
will strengthen at the base of a parent shortwave trough across the
Great Lakes, widespread multi-layered cloud cover and generally weak
mid level lapse rates will hinder destabilization, and consequently
limit the threat of severe weather. Temperatures will average middle
80s on Tue, probably highest over the Piedmont, on the back edge of
the aforementioned multi-layered cloud clover.

A secondary low level frontal zone, and perhaps a widely scattered
shower or storm, will drift SE across central NC Tue night, with an
associated following drier /more stable/ NWLY low level flow
expected through the first half of Wed. That boundary will then
stall along the SERN half of central NC and become a focus for
showers and storms Wed afternoon.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN U.S.,
while the aforementioned low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough will linger along the
Gulf Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states. Another
frontal zone is forecast to settle across the Middle Atlantic States
this weekend, where it too will have the same fate as the preceding
ones and stall nearby and focus a continued above average
probability of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions today with high pressure over the area and drier
air filtering in from the northeast. Cumulus fields over the
western Piedmont and Coastal Plain will dissipate this evening.
and models indicate a better chance of fog than stratus tonight
with the ridge axis extending through the central Piedmont. IFR
vsbys seem fairly likely at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI by 09Z, possibly as low
as LIFR/VLIFR at KRWI. A light southwest wind may limit sub- VFR
conditions at KGSO and KINT.

VFR conditions are expected for most of the day on monday as a
southwest wind takes hold across the entire area.

Outlook: Convection and the chance of sub-VFR conditions will
increase Monday night through Wednesday as a cold front moves
into the region from the northwest, though unsettled weather may
continue through the end of the week as the front stalls over the
region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...BLS/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261918
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
318 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold
front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Sunday...

Only real changes to the forecast were to remove the remaining
mention of clouds and lower dewpoints a touch given how quickly
the drier low-level air has invaded from the northeast. Water
vapor imagery suggests there is a shallow upper level disturbance
dropping south on the northeast periphery of the ridge building
over the deep south, but increased static stability and PW well
below an inch will prohibit any lift today, with just some passing
mid and how clouds. Highs are in line with the observed 12z
1000-850mb thickness of 1394m at GSO; 83-89 northeast to
southwest. -BS

Short wave ridge axis from the western gulf coast into the Great
Lakes region shifts east over the area Sunday night. This will
maintain clear skies, even as the surface high off the New England
coast weakens with modest low level moisture advection ongoing in
return flow by sunrise. Mins will be persistence, mostly in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Moisture will be increasing in the west Monday morning, and
spreading into the east during the afternoon in return flow ahead of
a slow moving front. There will be a chance of afternoon convection
in the west, but convection will be suppressed in the east which
will be under a weakening short wave ridge aloft. Highs will be on
the uptick in the warm air advection regime supplemented by partly
to mostly sunny skies, with most areas within a degree or two either
side of 90.

The slow moving front will creep into the northwest early Monday
night and shower coverage will increase across all of central NC.
Thunder potential, especially for strong storms, will be lessened by
unfavorable diurnal timing and lack of elevated mixed layer, but
scattered storms will be possible due to strong low level
convergence and hints of mid level disturbances in westerly flow.
Mins will be a little warmer, 70-ish, due to heavier cloud coverage
and continued southwest flow prior to fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

Convection --likely sub-severe multi-cell-- may be ongoing across
central NC early Tue, especially in the vicinity of a sfc-850 mb
trough axis that the models indicate will stretch from NNE to SSW
across central counties (roughly near U.S highway 1), and in
association with a mid level shear axis and possible MCV`s from
prior convection. This trough axis, and what will likely become an
effective lead frontal zone, will then drift across the Coastal
Plain through Tue afternoon, where it will focus scattered to
numerous showers and storms. While mid-upper level cyclonic flow
will strengthen at the base of a parent shortwave trough across the
Great Lakes, widespread multi-layered cloud cover and generally weak
mid level lapse rates will hinder destabilization, and consequently
limit the threat of severe weather. Temperatures will average middle
80s on Tue, probably highest over the Piedmont, on the back edge of
the aforementioned multi-layered cloud clover.

A secondary low level frontal zone, and perhaps a widely scattered
shower or storm, will drift SE across central NC Tue night, with an
associated following drier /more stable/ NWLY low level flow
expected through the first half of Wed. That boundary will then
stall along the SERN half of central NC and become a focus for
showers and storms Wed afternoon.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN U.S.,
while the aforementioned low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough will linger along the
Gulf Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states. Another
frontal zone is forecast to settle across the Middle Atlantic States
this weekend, where it too will have the same fate as the preceding
ones and stall nearby and focus a continued above average
probability of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions today with high pressure over the area and drier
air filtering in from the northeast. Cumulus fields over the
western Piedmont and Coastal Plain will dissipate this evening.
and models indicate a better chance of fog than stratus tonight
with the ridge axis extending through the central Piedmont. IFR
vsbys seem fairly likely at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI by 09Z, possibly as low
as LIFR/VLIFR at KRWI. A light southwest wind may limit sub- VFR
conditions at KGSO and KINT.

VFR conditions are expected for most of the day on monday as a
southwest wind takes hold across the entire area.

Outlook: Convection and the chance of sub-VFR conditions will
increase Monday night through Wednesday as a cold front moves
into the region from the northwest, though unsettled weather may
continue through the end of the week as the front stalls over the
region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...BLS/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261846
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
246 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sun...High pressure surface and aloft will continue
over the area tonight. Late this evening winds will decouple and
with mostly clear skies, strong radiational cooling will occur.
With a moist easterly low level flow prevailing and dewpoints
forecast to remain well into the 60s, conditions look favorable
for patches of fog, locally dense, to occur after midnight.
Overnight lows will be in the middle 60s inland and upper 60s
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sun...Expecting a continuation of the warm and dry
weather Monday. Low clouds and fog in the morning will give way to
afternoon sunshine. The surface high will move offshore late with
a weak return flow developing helping temps to warm into the
middle to upper 80s/near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 pm Sun...Unsettled weather expected throughout the long
term. Frontal boundary will approach from the NW Tuesday night and
slowly settle across the area Wednesday and remain near stationary
through the weekend with moist unstable airmass in place. Timing
of convection for the most part will be diurnally- driven. Will
follow pattern of chance PoPs throughout during the day with
slight chance inland and chance coast and offshore at night. Temps
near seasonal with highs in the mid/upper 80s with lower/mid 80s
Outer Banks, and lows in the upper 60s/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...Stubborn low cloud deck with MVFR ceilings
from KOAJ to KEWN to should lift and dissipate after 18Z this
afternoon. Main concern is the potential for a 3 to 6 hour period
of IFR ceilings and visibilities in fog and stratus beginning late
tonight after 06Z. Strong signals in the SREF/HRRR/NCAR/BUFKIT
guidance tools to support this with high pressure over the area
leading to strong radiational cooling with moist E low level flow
persisting overnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by
15Z Monday as high pressure continues to influence the weather.

Long Term /Mon night through Fri/
As of 245 pm Sun...Unsettled weather through the period with sub-
VFR in mainly diurnal convection. Late night/early AM fog possible
at terminals that have rain the previous day. Surface winds from
the SW around 5 knots Tuesday, S around 5 knots Wednesday, E
around 5 knots Thursday and S around 5 knots Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 245 PM Sun...High pressure will build over the waters
through the period with veering and diminishing winds. NE winds 10
to 20 kt this afternoon will become east and diminish to 10 kt or
less overnight. Monday light east winds will become south late. 2
to 4 ft seas with a some 5 ft seas outer waters through early this
evening, will become 2 to 3 ft late tonight and Monday.

Long Term /Mon night through Fri/
As of 245 pm Sun...Frontal boundary will approach from the NW
Tuesday night and settle across the area on Wednesday. Flow will
be S to SW for the most part, except on Thursday when the front
may briefly drop S before moving back north Thursday night.
Pressure gradient will not be very tight through the period. Winds
through the period generally 5-15 knots and seas will run 2-4
feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261812
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold
front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Sunday...

Only real changes to the forecast were to remove the remaining
mention of clouds and lower dewpoints a touch given how quickly
the drier low-level air has invaded from the northeast. Water
vapor imagery suggests there is a shallow upper level disturbance
dropping south on the northeast periphery of the ridge building
over the deep south, but increased static stability and PW well
below an inch will prohibit any lift today, with just some passing
mid and how clouds. Highs are in line with the observed 12z
1000-850mb thickness of 1394m at GSO; 83-89 northeast to
southwest. -BS

Short wave ridge axis from the western gulf coast into the Great
Lakes region shifts east over the area Sunday night. This will
maintain clear skies, even as the surface high off the New England
coast weakens with modest low level moisture advection ongoing in
return flow by sunrise. Mins will be persistence, mostly in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Moisture will be increasing in the west Monday morning, and
spreading into the east during the afternoon in return flow ahead of
a slow moving front. There will be a chance of afternoon convection
in the west, but convection will be suppressed in the east which
will be under a weakening short wave ridge aloft. Highs will be on
the uptick in the warm air advection regime supplemented by partly
to mostly sunny skies, with most areas within a degree or two either
side of 90.

The slow moving front will creep into the northwest early Monday
night and shower coverage will increase across all of central NC.
Thunder potential, especially for strong storms, will be lessened by
unfavorable diurnal timing and lack of elevated mixed layer, but
scattered storms will be possible due to strong low level
convergence and hints of mid level disturbances in westerly flow.
Mins will be a little warmer, 70-ish, due to heavier cloud coverage
and continued southwest flow prior to fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

A cold front will gradually move south across central NC during the
day Tuesday. Model timing of the front and prefrontal moisture
suggest the best chance for rain will occur during the morning and
afternoon, with rain shifting south and east of our CWA by early
evening as the front moves through.

The front is then expected to stall just to our south and east
Tuesday night, then move back inland through the mid-week period,
where it may then linger through the remainder of the long term
period as the longwave trough and cyclonic flow persists over the
eastern US.

This pattern warrants at least climo or better pops each day with
timing favoring the afternoon and evening hours and highest pops
across the eastern half of our CWA, along and east of the
boundary. Temps are expected to be near normal each day, with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s to
near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions today with high pressure over the area and drier
air filtering in from the northeast. Cumulus fields over the
western Piedmont and Coastal Plain will dissipate this evening.
and models indicate a better chance of fog than stratus tonight
with the ridge axis extending through the central Piedmont. IFR
vsbys seem fairly likely at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI by 09Z, possibly as low
as LIFR/VLIFR at KRWI. A light southwest wind may limit sub- VFR
conditions at KGSO and KINT.

VFR conditions are expected for most of the day on monday as a
southwest wind takes hold across the entire area.


Outlook: Convection and the chance of sub-VFR conditions will
increase Monday night through Wednesday as a cold front moves
into the region from the northwest, though unsettled weather may
continue through the end of the week as the front stalls over the
region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...BLS/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...XXX
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 261728
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
128 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will spread across the region today, as high pressure
builds south and east through early Monday. Rainfall chances will
increase across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, as a cold
front approaches and stalls offshore. Temperatures will remain
seasonable throughout the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM Sunday...Pleasant conditions on tap this afternoon
with less mugginess in the air. The only place we are carrying
mentionable pop values will be along the SC sea breeze front
in the middle and late afternoon from around Conway SSW to
Andrews. Otherwise partly cloudy skies with patches of afternoon
cumulus and variable strato-cumulus. Minimums 68-73 overnight from
N to S and middle 70s closer to the beaches and ICW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR conditions should persist through most of the
period. Dry air is slowly advancing from north to south as high
pressure pushes down from the Mid Atlantic region. The area of
scattered to broken moisture currently along the coast should mix
out/dissipate via high resolution guidance. For the late
evening/early morning hours some MVFR BR is possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1130 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging from the NE states
will be the primary driver for winds and resultant seas across the
local waters during this period. An initial ne-ene surge this
morning with NE 15 to occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt
this aftn and night. Significant seas will initially run 3 to
around 4 ft for the outer ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to
Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet to South Santee River. The inside
waters will run 2 to 3 ft with occasional 4 footers noted. The
seas will all subside by a foot by daybreak Monday. Wind driven
waves at 4 to 5 second periods will dominate.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 261728
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
128 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will spread across the region today, as high pressure
builds south and east through early Monday. Rainfall chances will
increase across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, as a cold
front approaches and stalls offshore. Temperatures will remain
seasonable throughout the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM Sunday...Pleasant conditions on tap this afternoon
with less mugginess in the air. The only place we are carrying
mentionable pop values will be along the SC sea breeze front
in the middle and late afternoon from around Conway SSW to
Andrews. Otherwise partly cloudy skies with patches of afternoon
cumulus and variable strato-cumulus. Minimums 68-73 overnight from
N to S and middle 70s closer to the beaches and ICW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR conditions should persist through most of the
period. Dry air is slowly advancing from north to south as high
pressure pushes down from the Mid Atlantic region. The area of
scattered to broken moisture currently along the coast should mix
out/dissipate via high resolution guidance. For the late
evening/early morning hours some MVFR BR is possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1130 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging from the NE states
will be the primary driver for winds and resultant seas across the
local waters during this period. An initial ne-ene surge this
morning with NE 15 to occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt
this aftn and night. Significant seas will initially run 3 to
around 4 ft for the outer ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to
Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet to South Santee River. The inside
waters will run 2 to 3 ft with occasional 4 footers noted. The
seas will all subside by a foot by daybreak Monday. Wind driven
waves at 4 to 5 second periods will dominate.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261630
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1230 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...No changes to previous forecast thinking.
High pressure surface and aloft will continue over the Carolinas
through Monday. Stubborn low cloud deck from Jacksonville to New
Bern should lift and dissipate after 18Z this afternoon. Light
surface flow from the NE and plentiful afternoon sunshine will
lead to seasonably warm high temps of 84-88 interior and upper 70s
Outer Banks today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 335 AM Sun...Quiet night on tap with the high pressure area
edging closer. This will produce calm/light winds and mainly clear
skies. Relatively low TD`s will allow for good radiational cooling
and lows in the 62-67 degree range interior to near 70 on the
beaches. Will introduce patchy fog for all but the beaches as the
calm winds and T-TD spreads near 0 allow for the patchy fog
development after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...After a mainly dry day Monday...an unsettled
period is expected through the remainder of the long term as a
cold front approaches the region Tuesday and then stalls across or
near the area Wednesday and remains quasi-stationary through the
end of the week.

Monday...High pressure sfc and aloft will be over the region
bringing mainly dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures.
Expect highs in the upper 80s inland with onshore flow holding
temps in the mid 80s NE sections with lower 80s along the northern
OBX.

Monday Night and Tuesday...A robust shortwave trough pushing
across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region will act to
break down the upper ridge while a cold front approaches the
region from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase late Monday night and Tuesday as upper level diffluence
increase with the approach of the right entrance region of the
upper jet and have high chance to likely PoPs by Tuesday. Lows
Monday Night expected around 70 inland to mid 70s along the coast.
Clouds and precip will keep temps a few degrees below normal with
highs generally in the mid 80s.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow will persist
across the eastern CONUS through the long term with a cold front
progged to move into the region Tuesday Night and remain stalled
across or near the area through the rest of the week bringing a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. Don`t expect any particular
day to be a washout but scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible through the period with moist unstable conditions in
place. The best chance of showers will be during the afternoon and
evening hours when instability is maximized. Temps look to be near
normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s inland and mid
80s coast with lows in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...Stubborn low cloud deck with MVFR ceilings
from KOAJ to KEWN to should lift and dissipate after 18Z this
afternoon. Main concern is the potential for a 3 to 6 hour period
of IFR ceilings and visibilities in fog and stratus beginning late
tonight after 06Z. Strong signals in the SREF/HRRR/NCAR/BUFKIT
guidance tools to support this with high pressure over the area
leading to strong radiational cooling with moist E low level flow
persisting overnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by
15Z Monday as high pressure continues to influence the weather.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...Periods of sub- VFR conditions possible in
scattered convection Monday night through Thursday as a cold
front affects the area. Patchy early morning fog will also be
possible...especially in areas that see sufficient rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...No changes to previous forecast thinking. NE
winds will continue 10 to 20 kt with seas 3-4 feet this afternoon
with some 5 foot sets possible outer Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout
waters as high pressure continues to build over the waters. Winds
veer east and diminish to 10 kt or less tonight as the center of
the high gets closer.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...High pressure will continue to ridge into
the region from the northeast through Monday then will dissipate
with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds
will gradually veer to SE Monday and then SW Tuesday as a cold
front approaches from the NW. The front move into the region by
Wednesday and remain stalled across or near the region through
the end of the week. Generally expect descent boating conditions
through the period with winds mainly remaining below 15 kt with
seas around 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/SK/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261630
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1230 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...No changes to previous forecast thinking.
High pressure surface and aloft will continue over the Carolinas
through Monday. Stubborn low cloud deck from Jacksonville to New
Bern should lift and dissipate after 18Z this afternoon. Light
surface flow from the NE and plentiful afternoon sunshine will
lead to seasonably warm high temps of 84-88 interior and upper 70s
Outer Banks today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 335 AM Sun...Quiet night on tap with the high pressure area
edging closer. This will produce calm/light winds and mainly clear
skies. Relatively low TD`s will allow for good radiational cooling
and lows in the 62-67 degree range interior to near 70 on the
beaches. Will introduce patchy fog for all but the beaches as the
calm winds and T-TD spreads near 0 allow for the patchy fog
development after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...After a mainly dry day Monday...an unsettled
period is expected through the remainder of the long term as a
cold front approaches the region Tuesday and then stalls across or
near the area Wednesday and remains quasi-stationary through the
end of the week.

Monday...High pressure sfc and aloft will be over the region
bringing mainly dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures.
Expect highs in the upper 80s inland with onshore flow holding
temps in the mid 80s NE sections with lower 80s along the northern
OBX.

Monday Night and Tuesday...A robust shortwave trough pushing
across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region will act to
break down the upper ridge while a cold front approaches the
region from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase late Monday night and Tuesday as upper level diffluence
increase with the approach of the right entrance region of the
upper jet and have high chance to likely PoPs by Tuesday. Lows
Monday Night expected around 70 inland to mid 70s along the coast.
Clouds and precip will keep temps a few degrees below normal with
highs generally in the mid 80s.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow will persist
across the eastern CONUS through the long term with a cold front
progged to move into the region Tuesday Night and remain stalled
across or near the area through the rest of the week bringing a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. Don`t expect any particular
day to be a washout but scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible through the period with moist unstable conditions in
place. The best chance of showers will be during the afternoon and
evening hours when instability is maximized. Temps look to be near
normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s inland and mid
80s coast with lows in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...Stubborn low cloud deck with MVFR ceilings
from KOAJ to KEWN to should lift and dissipate after 18Z this
afternoon. Main concern is the potential for a 3 to 6 hour period
of IFR ceilings and visibilities in fog and stratus beginning late
tonight after 06Z. Strong signals in the SREF/HRRR/NCAR/BUFKIT
guidance tools to support this with high pressure over the area
leading to strong radiational cooling with moist E low level flow
persisting overnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by
15Z Monday as high pressure continues to influence the weather.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...Periods of sub- VFR conditions possible in
scattered convection Monday night through Thursday as a cold
front affects the area. Patchy early morning fog will also be
possible...especially in areas that see sufficient rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...No changes to previous forecast thinking. NE
winds will continue 10 to 20 kt with seas 3-4 feet this afternoon
with some 5 foot sets possible outer Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout
waters as high pressure continues to build over the waters. Winds
veer east and diminish to 10 kt or less tonight as the center of
the high gets closer.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...High pressure will continue to ridge into
the region from the northeast through Monday then will dissipate
with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds
will gradually veer to SE Monday and then SW Tuesday as a cold
front approaches from the NW. The front move into the region by
Wednesday and remain stalled across or near the region through
the end of the week. Generally expect descent boating conditions
through the period with winds mainly remaining below 15 kt with
seas around 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/SK/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 261530
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will spread across the region today, as high pressure
builds south and east through early Monday. Rainfall chances will
increase across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, as a cold
front approaches and stalls offshore. Temperatures will remain
seasonable throughout the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM Sunday...Pleasant conditions on tap this afternoon
with less mugginess in the air. The only place we are carrying
mentionable pop values will be along the SC sea breeze front
in the middle and late afternoon from around Conway SSW to
Andrews. Otherwise partly cloudy skies with patches of afternoon
cumulus and variable strato-cumulus. Minimums 68-73 overnight from
N to S and middle 70s closer to the beaches and ICW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...Mid-level cigs are occurring with isolated light showers
from KFLO to KMYR and offshore. At the surface high pressure is
continuing to pull drier low level air in on N-NE winds. IFR/MVFR
cigs are showing a dissipating trend but will be possible the hour
or so at KCRE/KMYR.

Mid-level cigs will gradually shift S and showers decrease this
morning as a mid-level trough weakens and shifts S. This
afternoon as winds become more onshore, weak convergence at the
surface coupled with some lingering mid-level moisture near
KCRE/KMYR could allow for isolated showers to re-develop despite
increasing subsidence aloft. Do not think coverage will be
sufficient to warrant VCSH. This evening winds will become light
NE as drier air in the mid-levels builds in. Light winds and
clearing skies overnight will allow for potentially dense ground
fog to develop. Best potential for IFR or less will be at inland
terminals, and fog prone KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1130 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging from the NE states
will be the primary driver for winds and resultant seas across the
local waters during this period. An initial ne-ene surge this
morning with NE 15 to occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt
this aftn and night. Significant seas will initially run 3 to
around 4 ft for the outer ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to
Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet to South Santee River. The inside
waters will run 2 to 3 ft with occasional 4 footers noted. The
seas will all subside by a foot by daybreak Monday. Wind driven
waves at 4 to 5 second periods will dominate.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...Ralf
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/SHK
MARINE...Dough/3




000
FXUS62 KILM 261530
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will spread across the region today, as high pressure
builds south and east through early Monday. Rainfall chances will
increase across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, as a cold
front approaches and stalls offshore. Temperatures will remain
seasonable throughout the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM Sunday...Pleasant conditions on tap this afternoon
with less mugginess in the air. The only place we are carrying
mentionable pop values will be along the SC sea breeze front
in the middle and late afternoon from around Conway SSW to
Andrews. Otherwise partly cloudy skies with patches of afternoon
cumulus and variable strato-cumulus. Minimums 68-73 overnight from
N to S and middle 70s closer to the beaches and ICW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...Mid-level cigs are occurring with isolated light showers
from KFLO to KMYR and offshore. At the surface high pressure is
continuing to pull drier low level air in on N-NE winds. IFR/MVFR
cigs are showing a dissipating trend but will be possible the hour
or so at KCRE/KMYR.

Mid-level cigs will gradually shift S and showers decrease this
morning as a mid-level trough weakens and shifts S. This
afternoon as winds become more onshore, weak convergence at the
surface coupled with some lingering mid-level moisture near
KCRE/KMYR could allow for isolated showers to re-develop despite
increasing subsidence aloft. Do not think coverage will be
sufficient to warrant VCSH. This evening winds will become light
NE as drier air in the mid-levels builds in. Light winds and
clearing skies overnight will allow for potentially dense ground
fog to develop. Best potential for IFR or less will be at inland
terminals, and fog prone KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1130 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging from the NE states
will be the primary driver for winds and resultant seas across the
local waters during this period. An initial ne-ene surge this
morning with NE 15 to occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt
this aftn and night. Significant seas will initially run 3 to
around 4 ft for the outer ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to
Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet to South Santee River. The inside
waters will run 2 to 3 ft with occasional 4 footers noted. The
seas will all subside by a foot by daybreak Monday. Wind driven
waves at 4 to 5 second periods will dominate.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...Ralf
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/SHK
MARINE...Dough/3




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261405
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1005 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1005 AM Sun...High pressure surface and aloft will continue
over the central Carolinas through Monday. Light surface flow
from the NE and plentiful afternoon sunshine will lead to
seasonably warm high temps of 84-88 interior and upper 70s Outer
Banks today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 335 AM Sun...Quiet night on tap with the high pressure area
edging closer. This will produce calm/light winds and mainly clear
skies. Relatively low TD`s will allow for good radiational cooling
and lows in the 62-67 degree range interior to near 70 on the
beaches. Will introduce patchy fog for all but the beaches as the
calm winds and T-TD spreads near 0 allow for the patchy fog
development after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...After a mainly dry day Monday...an unsettled
period is expected through the remainder of the long term as a
cold front approaches the region Tuesday and then stalls across or
near the area Wednesday and remains quasi-stationary through the
end of the week.

Monday...High pressure sfc and aloft will be over the region
bringing mainly dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures.
Expect highs in the upper 80s inland with onshore flow holding
temps in the mid 80s NE sections with lower 80s along the northern
OBX.

Monday Night and Tuesday...A robust shortwave trough pushing
across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region will act to
break down the upper ridge while a cold front approaches the
region from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase late Monday night and Tuesday as upper level diffluence
increase with the approach of the right entrance region of the
upper jet and have high chance to likely PoPs by Tuesday. Lows
Monday Night expected around 70 inland to mid 70s along the coast.
Clouds and precip will keep temps a few degrees below normal with
highs generally in the mid 80s.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow will persist
across the eastern CONUS through the long term with a cold front
progged to move into the region Tuesday Night and remain stalled
across or near the area through the rest of the week bringing a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. Don`t expect any particular
day to be a washout but scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible through the period with moist unstable conditions in
place. The best chance of showers will be during the afternoon and
evening hours when instability is maximized. Temps look to be near
normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s inland and mid
80s coast with lows in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sun...MVFR cigs will scatter and lift to VFR under
partly cloudy skies today. Winds will be light NE. Calm winds
tonight will allow for threat of patchy fog development after
midnight and have introduced 2-4 mile vsbys late tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...VFR with dry weather Monday. Periods of
sub- VFR conditions possible in scattered convection Tuesday
through Thursday as a cold front affects the area. Patchy early
morning fog will also be possible...especially in areas that see
sufficient rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 1005 AM Sun...NE winds currently 10 to 20 kt and seas 3-4
feet. High pressure building into the central Carolinas will
continue the NE winds, generally around 15 kt except for some 20
kt winds Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout waters as well as eastern
Pamlico Sound. Seas will be mainly in the 3 to 4 foot range with
some 5 foot sets possible outer Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout
waters. Winds veer east and diminish to 10 kt or less tonight as
the high gets closer.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...High pressure will continue to ridge into
the region from the northeast through Monday then will dissipate
with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds
will gradually veer to SE Monday and then SW Tuesday as a cold
front approaches from the NW. The front move into the region by
Wednesday and remain stalled across or near the region through
the end of the week. Generally expect descent boating conditions
through the period with winds mainly remaining below 15 kt with
seas around 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...JME/SK/TL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261403
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1003 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold
front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Sunday...

Only real changes to the forecast were to remove the remain
mention of clouds and lower dewpoints a touch given how quickly
the drier low-level air has invaded from the northeast. water
vapor imagery suggests there is a shallow upper level disturbance
dropping south on the northeast periphery of the ridge building
over the deep south, but increased static stability and PW well
below an inch will prohibit any lift today, with just some passing
mid and how clouds. Highs are in line with the observed 12z
1000-850mb thickness of 1394m at GSO; 83-89 northeast to
southwest. -BS

Short wave ridge axis from the western gulf coast into the Great
Lakes region shifts east over the area Sunday night. This will
maintain clear skies, even as the surface high off the New England
coast weakens with modest low level moisture advection ongoing in
return flow by sunrise. Mins will be persistence, mostly in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Moisture will be increasing in the west Monday morning, and
spreading into the east during the afternoon in return flow ahead of
a slow moving front. There will be a chance of afternoon convection
in the west, but convection will be suppressed in the east which
will be under a weakening short wave ridge aloft. Highs will be on
the uptick in the warm air advection regime supplemented by partly
to mostly sunny skies, with most areas within a degree or two either
side of 90.

The slow moving front will creep into the northwest early Monday
night and shower coverage will increase across all of central NC.
Thunder potential, especially for strong storms, will be lessened by
unfavorable diurnal timing and lack of elevated mixed layer, but
scattered storms will be possible due to strong low level
convergence and hints of mid level disturbances in westerly flow.
Mins will be a little warmer, 70-ish, due to heavier cloud coverage
and continued southwest flow prior to fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

A cold front will gradually move south across central NC during the
day Tuesday. Model timing of the front and prefrontal moisture
suggest the best chance for rain will occur during the morning and
afternoon, with rain shifting south and east of our CWA by early
evening as the front moves through.

The front is then expected to stall just to our south and east
Tuesday night, then move back inland through the mid-week period,
where it may then linger through the remainder of the long term
period as the longwave trough and cyclonic flow persists over the
eastern US.

This pattern warrants at least climo or better pops each day with
timing favoring the afternoon and evening hours and highest pops
across the eastern half of our cwa, along and east of the boundary.
Temps are expected to be near normal each day, with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

Drier air has filtered into most of the area this morning with
subsequent clearing. The predominantly clear skies allowed fog to
develop with IFR visibilities in spots across the northeast (RWI),
which will burn off by 13Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected for the remainder of the valid TAF period, although we
may see a repeatof light fog or low stratus late tonight.

Long Term: VFR conditions will generally prevail Monday, with
chances for convection and associated adverse aviation conditions
increasing Monday night through Tuesday as our next frontal system
moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...BS/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...XXX
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KILM 261133
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
733 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning showers over the southern portions will give way to
drier air spreading across the entire area today. This a result of
high pressure extending into the area from the north thru Monday.
Only isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, mainly
along the sea breeze. Rainfall chances will increase across the
entire area Tuesday through Wednesday and possibly persisting thru
the end of the week. This due to a cold front stalling in the
area. Temperatures will remain seasonable thruout the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...Elevated Weak forcing has enabled isolated
to widely scattered showers to persist across the southern
portions of the ILM CWA this morning. This activity should push
south of the area by this afternoon leaving a partly to mostly
sunny sky for the remainder of the day.

Models are in decent agreement in pushing the sfc cold front
further south of the ILM CWA early this morning before stalling it
between FL and SC later today. A 1025+ mb High is aiding that push
with its sfc ridge axis extending SW across the Carolinas from its
center moving off the NE states later today and tonight. The ILM
CWA will also be temporarily affected by mid-level ridging
extending from the central Gulf Coast States. Plenty of dry air in
the mid and upper levels moving south and across the area as
illustrated by the latest Water Vapor Imagery and it`s trends.
This will result in subsidence aloft with an inversion shown by
progged soundings occurring between 700 and 500 mb. Other than
morning low stratus and patchy fog, today should be an a.o.k. day
with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny sunny by late
morning...except afternoon for the southernmost portions of the
FA. Skies tonight will be mostly clear except possible low level
stratocu moving onshore from Myrtle Beach southward. Here winds
sfc to 750 mb will mainly be easterly helping to push the low
clouds onshore. A Consensus amongst the models gives mid to upper
80s for highs and upper 60s to around 70 for tonights lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...Mid-level cigs are occurring with isolated light showers
from KFLO to KMYR and offshore. At the surface high pressure is
continuing to pull drier low level air in on N-NE winds. IFR/MVFR
cigs are showing a dissipating trend but will be possible the hour
or so at KCRE/KMYR.

Mid-level cigs will gradually shift S and showers decrease this
morning as a mid-level trough weakens and shifts S. This
afternoon as winds become more onshore, weak convergence at the
surface coupled with some lingering mid-level moisture near
KCRE/KMYR could allow for isolated showers to re-develop despite
increasing subsidence aloft. Do not think coverage will be
sufficient to warrant VCSH. This evening winds will become light
NE as drier air in the mid-levels builds in. Light winds and
clearing skies overnight will allow for potentially dense ground
fog to develop. Best potential for IFR or less will be at inland
terminals, and fog prone KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 630 AM Sunday...Weak elevated forcing has resulted in
isolated to widely scattered showers developing across the local
waters south of Little River Inlet. This activity will push
southward and likely out of the local waters this afternoon.
Activity will be limited in vertical development and thus looking
at mainly showers near shore with possible thunder beyond 20 nm
out.

High pressure ridging from the NE states will be the primary
driver for winds and resultant seas across the local waters during
this period. An initial ne-ene surge this morning with NE 15 to
occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt this aftn and night.
Significant seas will initially run 3 to around 4 ft for the outer
ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet
to South Santee River. The inside waters will run 2 to 3 ft with
occasional 4 footers noted. The seas will all subside by a foot by
daybreak Monday. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will
dominate.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 261133
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
733 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning showers over the southern portions will give way to
drier air spreading across the entire area today. This a result of
high pressure extending into the area from the north thru Monday.
Only isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, mainly
along the sea breeze. Rainfall chances will increase across the
entire area Tuesday through Wednesday and possibly persisting thru
the end of the week. This due to a cold front stalling in the
area. Temperatures will remain seasonable thruout the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...Elevated Weak forcing has enabled isolated
to widely scattered showers to persist across the southern
portions of the ILM CWA this morning. This activity should push
south of the area by this afternoon leaving a partly to mostly
sunny sky for the remainder of the day.

Models are in decent agreement in pushing the sfc cold front
further south of the ILM CWA early this morning before stalling it
between FL and SC later today. A 1025+ mb High is aiding that push
with its sfc ridge axis extending SW across the Carolinas from its
center moving off the NE states later today and tonight. The ILM
CWA will also be temporarily affected by mid-level ridging
extending from the central Gulf Coast States. Plenty of dry air in
the mid and upper levels moving south and across the area as
illustrated by the latest Water Vapor Imagery and it`s trends.
This will result in subsidence aloft with an inversion shown by
progged soundings occurring between 700 and 500 mb. Other than
morning low stratus and patchy fog, today should be an a.o.k. day
with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny sunny by late
morning...except afternoon for the southernmost portions of the
FA. Skies tonight will be mostly clear except possible low level
stratocu moving onshore from Myrtle Beach southward. Here winds
sfc to 750 mb will mainly be easterly helping to push the low
clouds onshore. A Consensus amongst the models gives mid to upper
80s for highs and upper 60s to around 70 for tonights lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...Mid-level cigs are occurring with isolated light showers
from KFLO to KMYR and offshore. At the surface high pressure is
continuing to pull drier low level air in on N-NE winds. IFR/MVFR
cigs are showing a dissipating trend but will be possible the hour
or so at KCRE/KMYR.

Mid-level cigs will gradually shift S and showers decrease this
morning as a mid-level trough weakens and shifts S. This
afternoon as winds become more onshore, weak convergence at the
surface coupled with some lingering mid-level moisture near
KCRE/KMYR could allow for isolated showers to re-develop despite
increasing subsidence aloft. Do not think coverage will be
sufficient to warrant VCSH. This evening winds will become light
NE as drier air in the mid-levels builds in. Light winds and
clearing skies overnight will allow for potentially dense ground
fog to develop. Best potential for IFR or less will be at inland
terminals, and fog prone KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 630 AM Sunday...Weak elevated forcing has resulted in
isolated to widely scattered showers developing across the local
waters south of Little River Inlet. This activity will push
southward and likely out of the local waters this afternoon.
Activity will be limited in vertical development and thus looking
at mainly showers near shore with possible thunder beyond 20 nm
out.

High pressure ridging from the NE states will be the primary
driver for winds and resultant seas across the local waters during
this period. An initial ne-ene surge this morning with NE 15 to
occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt this aftn and night.
Significant seas will initially run 3 to around 4 ft for the outer
ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet
to South Santee River. The inside waters will run 2 to 3 ft with
occasional 4 footers noted. The seas will all subside by a foot by
daybreak Monday. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will
dominate.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261100
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
As of 7 AM Sun...High pressure will ridge into the central
Carolinas from the north with light NE winds and seasonably warm
temps prevailing. Expect low clouds in the morning to lift and
scatter out to partly cloudy skies. Highs will be 84-88 interior
to upper 70s OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 335 AM Sun...Quiet night on tap with the high pressure area
edging closer. This will produce calm/light winds and mainly clear
skies. Relatively low TD`s will allow for good radiational cooling
and lows in the 62-67 degree range interior to near 70 on the
beaches. Will introduce patchy fog for all but the beaches as the
calm winds and T-TD spreads near 0 allow for the patchy fog
development after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...After a mainly dry day Monday...an unsettled
period is expected through the remainder of the long term as a
cold front approaches the region Tuesday and then stalls across or
near the area Wednesday and remains quasi-stationary through the
end of the week.

Monday...High pressure sfc and aloft will be over the region
bringing mainly dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures.
Expect highs in the upper 80s inland with onshore flow holding
temps in the mid 80s NE sections with lower 80s along the northern
OBX.

Monday Night and Tuesday...A robust shortwave trough pushing
across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region will act to
break down the upper ridge while a cold front approaches the
region from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase late Monday night and Tuesday as upper level diffluence
increase with the approach of the right entrance region of the
upper jet and have high chance to likely PoPs by Tuesday. Lows
Monday Night expected around 70 inland to mid 70s along the coast.
Clouds and precip will keep temps a few degrees below normal with
highs generally in the mid 80s.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow will persist
across the eastern CONUS through the long term with a cold front
progged to move into the region Tuesday Night and remain stalled
across or near the area through the rest of the week bringing a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. Don`t expect any particular
day to be a washout but scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible through the period with moist unstable conditions in
place. The best chance of showers will be during the afternoon and
evening hours when instability is maximized. Temps look to be near
normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s inland and mid
80s coast with lows in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sun...MVFR cigs will scatter and lift to VFR under
partly cloudy skies today. Winds will be light NE. Calm winds
tonight will allow for threat of patchy fog development after
midnight and have introduced 2-4 mile vsbys late tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...VFR with dry weather Monday. Periods of
sub- VFR conditions possible in scattered convection Tuesday
through Thursday as a cold front affects the area. Patchy early
morning fog will also be possible...especially in areas that see
sufficient rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 7 AM Sun...NE winds currently 10-15 kt with some gusts
nearing 20 kt and seas are 3-4 feet. High pressure building into
the central Carolinas will continue the NE winds through today,
generally around 15 kt except for some 20 kt winds Oregon Inlet
to Cape Lookout waters as well as eastern Pamlico Sound. Seas
will be mainly in the 3 to 4 foot range with some 5 foot sets
possible outer Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout. Winds veer east and
diminish to 10 kt or less tonight as the high gets closer.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...High pressure will continue to ridge into
the region from the northeast through Monday then will dissipate
with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds
will gradually veer to SE Monday and then SW Tuesday as a cold
front approaches from the NW. The front move into the region by
Wednesday and remain stalled across or near the region through
the end of the week. Generally expect descent boating conditions
through the period with winds mainly remaining below 15 kt with
seas around 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261100
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
As of 7 AM Sun...High pressure will ridge into the central
Carolinas from the north with light NE winds and seasonably warm
temps prevailing. Expect low clouds in the morning to lift and
scatter out to partly cloudy skies. Highs will be 84-88 interior
to upper 70s OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 335 AM Sun...Quiet night on tap with the high pressure area
edging closer. This will produce calm/light winds and mainly clear
skies. Relatively low TD`s will allow for good radiational cooling
and lows in the 62-67 degree range interior to near 70 on the
beaches. Will introduce patchy fog for all but the beaches as the
calm winds and T-TD spreads near 0 allow for the patchy fog
development after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...After a mainly dry day Monday...an unsettled
period is expected through the remainder of the long term as a
cold front approaches the region Tuesday and then stalls across or
near the area Wednesday and remains quasi-stationary through the
end of the week.

Monday...High pressure sfc and aloft will be over the region
bringing mainly dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures.
Expect highs in the upper 80s inland with onshore flow holding
temps in the mid 80s NE sections with lower 80s along the northern
OBX.

Monday Night and Tuesday...A robust shortwave trough pushing
across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region will act to
break down the upper ridge while a cold front approaches the
region from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase late Monday night and Tuesday as upper level diffluence
increase with the approach of the right entrance region of the
upper jet and have high chance to likely PoPs by Tuesday. Lows
Monday Night expected around 70 inland to mid 70s along the coast.
Clouds and precip will keep temps a few degrees below normal with
highs generally in the mid 80s.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow will persist
across the eastern CONUS through the long term with a cold front
progged to move into the region Tuesday Night and remain stalled
across or near the area through the rest of the week bringing a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. Don`t expect any particular
day to be a washout but scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible through the period with moist unstable conditions in
place. The best chance of showers will be during the afternoon and
evening hours when instability is maximized. Temps look to be near
normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s inland and mid
80s coast with lows in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sun...MVFR cigs will scatter and lift to VFR under
partly cloudy skies today. Winds will be light NE. Calm winds
tonight will allow for threat of patchy fog development after
midnight and have introduced 2-4 mile vsbys late tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...VFR with dry weather Monday. Periods of
sub- VFR conditions possible in scattered convection Tuesday
through Thursday as a cold front affects the area. Patchy early
morning fog will also be possible...especially in areas that see
sufficient rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 7 AM Sun...NE winds currently 10-15 kt with some gusts
nearing 20 kt and seas are 3-4 feet. High pressure building into
the central Carolinas will continue the NE winds through today,
generally around 15 kt except for some 20 kt winds Oregon Inlet
to Cape Lookout waters as well as eastern Pamlico Sound. Seas
will be mainly in the 3 to 4 foot range with some 5 foot sets
possible outer Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout. Winds veer east and
diminish to 10 kt or less tonight as the high gets closer.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...High pressure will continue to ridge into
the region from the northeast through Monday then will dissipate
with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds
will gradually veer to SE Monday and then SW Tuesday as a cold
front approaches from the NW. The front move into the region by
Wednesday and remain stalled across or near the region through
the end of the week. Generally expect descent boating conditions
through the period with winds mainly remaining below 15 kt with
seas around 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 261051
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
651 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning showers over the southern portions will give way to
drier air spreading across the entire area today. This a result of
high pressure extending into the area from the north thru Monday.
Only isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, mainly
along the sea breeze. Rainfall chances will increase across the
entire area Tuesday through Wednesday and possibly persisting thru
the end of the week. This due to a cold front stalling in the
area. Temperatures will remain seasonable thruout the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...Elevated Weak forcing has enabled isolated
to widely scattered showers to persist across the southern
portions of the ILM CWA this morning. This activity should push
south of the area by this afternoon leaving a partly to mostly
sunny sky for the remainder of the day.

Models are in decent agreement in pushing the sfc cold front
further south of the ILM CWA early this morning before stalling it
between FL and SC later today. A 1025+ mb High is aiding that push
with its sfc ridge axis extending SW across the Carolinas from its
center moving off the NE states later today and tonight. The ILM
CWA will also be temporarily affected by mid-level ridging
extending from the central Gulf Coast States. Plenty of dry air in
the mid and upper levels moving south and across the area as
illustrated by the latest Water Vapor Imagery and it`s trends.
This will result in subsidence aloft with an inversion shown by
progged soundings occurring between 700 and 500 mb. Other than
morning low stratus and patchy fog, today should be an a.o.k. day
with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny sunny by late
morning...except afternoon for the southernmost portions of the
FA. Skies tonight will be mostly clear except possible low level
stratocu moving onshore from Myrtle Beach southward. Here winds
sfc to 750 mb will mainly be easterly helping to push the low
clouds onshore. A Consensus amongst the models gives mid to upper
80s for highs and upper 60s to around 70 for tonights lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Sfc cold front will drop south of the ILM CWA by
daybreak Sun. Winds across all terminals will become ne-ene at 5
to 10 kt in its wake. IFR/MVFR ceilings from low stratus will
likely occur across all terminals except LBT. Low level moisture
remains deeper across areas south and east of LBT. For Sunday, sfc
high pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the Northeast
States. After 14-15z, expect all terminals to be rid of the low
level stratus with daytime few/scattered cu and sc taking its
place. Winds across all terminals after daybreak Sun will run
ne-ene around 10 kt. The resultant wind will develop and push
inland during the aftn and evening, veering the winds across the
coastal terminals to the ese-se at 10 to 15 kt. Enough subsidence
aloft will keep the enhanced cu along the resultant wind boundary
from developing any further. Thats not to say an isolated -shra is
possible. However, just not enough slight chance coverage to
warrant pops and even vcnty -shra. After sunset, diurnal driven
cu/sc will quickly dissipate leaving thin ci overhead. Winds will
back down to the ene-ese at 5 kt or less.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 630 AM Sunday...Weak elevated forcing has resulted in
isolated to widely scattered showers developing across the local
waters south of Little River Inlet. This activity will push
southward and likely out of the local waters this afternoon.
Activity will be limited in vertical development and thus looking
at mainly showers near shore with possible thunder beyond 20 nm
out.

High pressure ridging from the NE states will be the primary
driver for winds and resultant seas across the local waters during
this period. An initial ne-ene surge this morning with NE 15 to
occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt this aftn and night.
Significant seas will initially run 3 to around 4 ft for the outer
ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet
to South Santee River. The inside waters will run 2 to 3 ft with
occasional 4 footers noted. The seas will all subside by a foot by
daybreak Monday. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will
dominate.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 261051
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
651 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning showers over the southern portions will give way to
drier air spreading across the entire area today. This a result of
high pressure extending into the area from the north thru Monday.
Only isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, mainly
along the sea breeze. Rainfall chances will increase across the
entire area Tuesday through Wednesday and possibly persisting thru
the end of the week. This due to a cold front stalling in the
area. Temperatures will remain seasonable thruout the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...Elevated Weak forcing has enabled isolated
to widely scattered showers to persist across the southern
portions of the ILM CWA this morning. This activity should push
south of the area by this afternoon leaving a partly to mostly
sunny sky for the remainder of the day.

Models are in decent agreement in pushing the sfc cold front
further south of the ILM CWA early this morning before stalling it
between FL and SC later today. A 1025+ mb High is aiding that push
with its sfc ridge axis extending SW across the Carolinas from its
center moving off the NE states later today and tonight. The ILM
CWA will also be temporarily affected by mid-level ridging
extending from the central Gulf Coast States. Plenty of dry air in
the mid and upper levels moving south and across the area as
illustrated by the latest Water Vapor Imagery and it`s trends.
This will result in subsidence aloft with an inversion shown by
progged soundings occurring between 700 and 500 mb. Other than
morning low stratus and patchy fog, today should be an a.o.k. day
with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny sunny by late
morning...except afternoon for the southernmost portions of the
FA. Skies tonight will be mostly clear except possible low level
stratocu moving onshore from Myrtle Beach southward. Here winds
sfc to 750 mb will mainly be easterly helping to push the low
clouds onshore. A Consensus amongst the models gives mid to upper
80s for highs and upper 60s to around 70 for tonights lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Sfc cold front will drop south of the ILM CWA by
daybreak Sun. Winds across all terminals will become ne-ene at 5
to 10 kt in its wake. IFR/MVFR ceilings from low stratus will
likely occur across all terminals except LBT. Low level moisture
remains deeper across areas south and east of LBT. For Sunday, sfc
high pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the Northeast
States. After 14-15z, expect all terminals to be rid of the low
level stratus with daytime few/scattered cu and sc taking its
place. Winds across all terminals after daybreak Sun will run
ne-ene around 10 kt. The resultant wind will develop and push
inland during the aftn and evening, veering the winds across the
coastal terminals to the ese-se at 10 to 15 kt. Enough subsidence
aloft will keep the enhanced cu along the resultant wind boundary
from developing any further. Thats not to say an isolated -shra is
possible. However, just not enough slight chance coverage to
warrant pops and even vcnty -shra. After sunset, diurnal driven
cu/sc will quickly dissipate leaving thin ci overhead. Winds will
back down to the ene-ese at 5 kt or less.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 630 AM Sunday...Weak elevated forcing has resulted in
isolated to widely scattered showers developing across the local
waters south of Little River Inlet. This activity will push
southward and likely out of the local waters this afternoon.
Activity will be limited in vertical development and thus looking
at mainly showers near shore with possible thunder beyond 20 nm
out.

High pressure ridging from the NE states will be the primary
driver for winds and resultant seas across the local waters during
this period. An initial ne-ene surge this morning with NE 15 to
occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt this aftn and night.
Significant seas will initially run 3 to around 4 ft for the outer
ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet
to South Santee River. The inside waters will run 2 to 3 ft with
occasional 4 footers noted. The seas will all subside by a foot by
daybreak Monday. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will
dominate.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261025
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold
front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Patchy low cloudiness around the periphery of the drier (<65 Td)
airmass advecting in complements of northeast flow has been very
slowly expanding overnight. Clear skies and near zero dewpoint
depression in the northeast will permit development of patchy fog in
the northeast piedmont and northern coastal plain, with quick
dispersion after sunrise. Similarly elsewhere, expect some increased
coverage in the low cloudiness through the remainder of the
overnight with clearing by mid morning. As such, mostly sunny to
sunny skies are on tap Sunday, with highs ranging from mid 80s
across the northern tier to upper 80s across the south.

Short wave ridge axis from the western gulf coast into the Great
Lakes region shifts east over the area Sunday night. This will
maintain clear skies, even as the surface high off the New England
coast weakens with modest low level moisture advection ongoing in
return flow by sunrise. Mins will be persistence, mostly in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Moisture will be increasing in the west Monday morning, and
spreading into the east during the afternoon in return flow ahead of
a slow moving front. There will be a chance of afternoon convection
in the west, but convection will be suppressed in the east which
will be under a weakening short wave ridge aloft. Highs will be on
the uptick in the warm air advection regime supplemented by partly
to mostly sunny skies, with most areas within a degree or two either
side of 90.

The slow moving front will creep into the northwest early Monday
night and shower coverage will increase across all of central NC.
Thunder potential, especially for strong storms, will be lessened by
unfavorable diurnal timing and lack of elevated mixed layer, but
scattered storms will be possible due to strong low level
convergence and hints of mid level disturbances in westerly flow.
Mins will be a little warmer, 70-ish, due to heavier cloud coverage
and continued southwest flow prior to fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

A cold front will gradually move south across central NC during the
day Tuesday. Model timing of the front and prefrontal moisture
suggest the best chance for rain will occur during the morning and
afternoon, with rain shifting south and east of our CWA by early
evening as the front moves through.

The front is then expected to stall just to our south and east
Tuesday night, then move back inland through the mid-week period,
where it may then linger through the remainder of the long term
period as the longwave trough and cyclonic flow persists over the
eastern US.

This pattern warrants at least climo or better pops each day with
timing favoring the afternoon and evening hours and highest pops
across the eastern half of our cwa, along and east of the boundary.
Temps are expected to be near normal each day, with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

Drier air has filtered into most of the area this morning with
subsequent clearing. The predominantly clear skies allowed fog to
develop with IFR visibilities in spots across the northeast (RWI),
which will burn off by 13Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected for the remainder of the valid TAF period, although we
may see a repeatof light fog or low stratus late tonight.

Long Term: VFR conditions will generally prevail Monday, with
chances for convection and associated adverse aviation conditions
increasing Monday night through Tuesday as our next frontal system
moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...mlm




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261025
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold
front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Patchy low cloudiness around the periphery of the drier (<65 Td)
airmass advecting in complements of northeast flow has been very
slowly expanding overnight. Clear skies and near zero dewpoint
depression in the northeast will permit development of patchy fog in
the northeast piedmont and northern coastal plain, with quick
dispersion after sunrise. Similarly elsewhere, expect some increased
coverage in the low cloudiness through the remainder of the
overnight with clearing by mid morning. As such, mostly sunny to
sunny skies are on tap Sunday, with highs ranging from mid 80s
across the northern tier to upper 80s across the south.

Short wave ridge axis from the western gulf coast into the Great
Lakes region shifts east over the area Sunday night. This will
maintain clear skies, even as the surface high off the New England
coast weakens with modest low level moisture advection ongoing in
return flow by sunrise. Mins will be persistence, mostly in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Moisture will be increasing in the west Monday morning, and
spreading into the east during the afternoon in return flow ahead of
a slow moving front. There will be a chance of afternoon convection
in the west, but convection will be suppressed in the east which
will be under a weakening short wave ridge aloft. Highs will be on
the uptick in the warm air advection regime supplemented by partly
to mostly sunny skies, with most areas within a degree or two either
side of 90.

The slow moving front will creep into the northwest early Monday
night and shower coverage will increase across all of central NC.
Thunder potential, especially for strong storms, will be lessened by
unfavorable diurnal timing and lack of elevated mixed layer, but
scattered storms will be possible due to strong low level
convergence and hints of mid level disturbances in westerly flow.
Mins will be a little warmer, 70-ish, due to heavier cloud coverage
and continued southwest flow prior to fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

A cold front will gradually move south across central NC during the
day Tuesday. Model timing of the front and prefrontal moisture
suggest the best chance for rain will occur during the morning and
afternoon, with rain shifting south and east of our CWA by early
evening as the front moves through.

The front is then expected to stall just to our south and east
Tuesday night, then move back inland through the mid-week period,
where it may then linger through the remainder of the long term
period as the longwave trough and cyclonic flow persists over the
eastern US.

This pattern warrants at least climo or better pops each day with
timing favoring the afternoon and evening hours and highest pops
across the eastern half of our cwa, along and east of the boundary.
Temps are expected to be near normal each day, with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

Drier air has filtered into most of the area this morning with
subsequent clearing. The predominantly clear skies allowed fog to
develop with IFR visibilities in spots across the northeast (RWI),
which will burn off by 13Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected for the remainder of the valid TAF period, although we
may see a repeatof light fog or low stratus late tonight.

Long Term: VFR conditions will generally prevail Monday, with
chances for convection and associated adverse aviation conditions
increasing Monday night through Tuesday as our next frontal system
moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...mlm




000
FXUS62 KILM 260828
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
428 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will gradually spread into the area today keeping the
region dry. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop Monday
afternoon. Rainfall chances increase Tuesday afternoon and remain
elevated through the end of the week as a weak cold front stalls
in the area. Temperatures will remain seasonable into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Models are in decent agreement in pushing the
sfc cold front further south of the ILM CWA early this morning
before stalling it between FL and SC later today. A 1025+ mb High is
aiding that push with its sfc ridge axis extending SW across the
Carolinas from its center moving off the NE states later today and
tonight. The ILM CWA will also be temporarily affected by mid-level
ridging extending from the central Gulf Coast States. Plenty of dry
air in the mid and upper levels moving south and across the area as
illustrated by the latest Water Vapor Imagery and it`s trends. This
will result in subsidence aloft with an inversion shown by progged
soundings occurring between 700 and 500 mb. The pesky shower across
the westernmost portions of the ILM CWA should dissipate by sunrise
as this drier air continues to advect across the FA. Other than
morning low stratus and patchy fog, today should be an o.k. day with
skies becoming partly to mostly sunny sunny by mid to late morning.
Skies tonight will be mostly clear except possible low level
stratocu moving onshore from Myrtle Beach southward. Here winds sfc
to 750 mb will mainly be easterly helping to push the low clouds
onshore. A Consensus amongst the models gives mid to upper 80s for
highs and upper 60s to around 70 for tonights lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Sfc cold front will drop south of the ILM CWA by
daybreak Sun. Winds across all terminals will become ne-ene at 5
to 10 kt in its wake. IFR/MVFR ceilings from low stratus will
likely occur across all terminals except LBT. Low level moisture
remains deeper across areas south and east of LBT. For Sunday, sfc
high pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the Northeast
States. After 14-15z, expect all terminals to be rid of the low
level stratus with daytime few/scattered cu and sc taking its
place. Winds across all terminals after daybreak Sun will run
ne-ene around 10 kt. The resultant wind will develop and push
inland during the aftn and evening, veering the winds across the
coastal terminals to the ese-se at 10 to 15 kt. Enough subsidence
aloft will keep the enhanced cu along the resultant wind boundary
from developing any further. Thats not to say an isolated -shra is
possible. However, just not enough slight chance coverage to
warrant pops and even vcnty -shra. After sunset, diurnal driven
cu/sc will quickly dissipate leaving thin ci overhead. Winds will
back down to the ene-ese at 5 kt or less.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...High pressure ridging from the NE states will
be the primary driver for winds and resultant seas across the local
waters during this period. An initial ne-ene surge this morning with
NE 15 to occasionally 20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt this aftn and
night. Significant seas will initially run 3 to around 4 ft for the
outer ILM NC and SC Waters ie. Surf City to Cape Fear and Murrells
Inlet to South Santee River. The inside waters will run 2 to 3 ft
with occasional 4 footers noted. The seas will all subside by a foot
by daybreak Monday. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will
dominate.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...With the sfc high moving off the east coast
Monday. Winds will start off easterly Monday and veer to the se-s
Monday Night, and further veer to the sw for Tuesday thru Tuesday
Night. The sfc pressure pattern associated with the approaching cold
front will produce the SW wind directions. The sfc pg will become
relaxed later Monday thru Tuesday and possible tighten a bit Tue
Night. Overall, wind speeds will run 10 to occasionally 15 kt.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft and mainly be dominated by a
small 1 to possibly 2 foot ese ground swell at 9 second periods.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 260815
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
415 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will gradually spread into the area today keeping the
region dry. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop Monday
afternoon. Rainfall chances increase Tuesday afternoon and remain
elevated through the end of the week as a weak cold front stalls
in the area. Temperatures will remain seasonable into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Models are in decent agreement in pushing the
sfc cold front further south of the ILM CWA early this morning
before stalling it between FL and SC later today. A 1025+ mb High is
aiding that push with its sfc ridge axis extending SW across the
Carolinas from its center moving off the NE states later today and
tonight. The ILM CWA will also be temporarily affected by mid-level
ridging extending from the central Gulf Coast States. Plenty of dry
air in the mid and upper levels moving south and across the area as
illustrated by the latest Water Vapor Imagery and it`s trends. This
will result in subsidence aloft with an inversion shown by progged
soundings occurring between 700 and 500 mb. The pesky shower across
the westernmost portions of the ILM CWA should dissipate by sunrise
as this drier air continues to advect across the FA. Other than
morning low stratus and patchy fog, today should be an o.k. day with
skies becoming partly to mostly sunny sunny by mid to late morning.
Skies tonight will be mostly clear except possible low level
stratocu moving onshore from Myrtle Beach southward. Here winds sfc
to 750 mb will mainly be easterly helping to push the low clouds
onshore. A Consensus amongst the models gives mid to upper 80s for
highs and upper 60s to around 70 for tonights lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Sfc cold front will drop south of the ILM CWA by
daybreak Sun. Winds across all terminals will become ne-ene at 5
to 10 kt in its wake. IFR/MVFR ceilings from low stratus will
likely occur across all terminals except LBT. Low level moisture
remains deeper across areas south and east of LBT. For Sunday, sfc
high pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the Northeast
States. After 14-15z, expect all terminals to be rid of the low
level stratus with daytime few/scattered cu and sc taking its
place. Winds across all terminals after daybreak Sun will run
ne-ene around 10 kt. The resultant wind will develop and push
inland during the aftn and evening, veering the winds across the
coastal terminals to the ese-se at 10 to 15 kt. Enough subsidence
aloft will keep the enhanced cu along the resultant wind boundary
from developing any further. Thats not to say an isolated -shra is
possible. However, just not enough slight chance coverage to
warrant pops and even vcnty -shra. After sunset, diurnal driven
cu/sc will quickly dissipate leaving thin ci overhead. Winds will
back down to the ene-ese at 5 kt or less.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 10 PM Saturday...The front is drifting south across the
southern marine leg with E-NE flow in its wake. Speeds are up to 15
to 20 knots with 4 footers at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy. Plan to bump
the wind up based on latest observations and raise seas to around 4 ft
with the next update. Isolated shower is also possible, with most of
the convection found across the offshore waters versus the coastal
waters.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to
SE Monday and no headlines or caution statements appear to be
needed this period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since
drying from the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday
will subside another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 260815
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
415 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will gradually spread into the area today keeping the
region dry. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop Monday
afternoon. Rainfall chances increase Tuesday afternoon and remain
elevated through the end of the week as a weak cold front stalls
in the area. Temperatures will remain seasonable into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Models are in decent agreement in pushing the
sfc cold front further south of the ILM CWA early this morning
before stalling it between FL and SC later today. A 1025+ mb High is
aiding that push with its sfc ridge axis extending SW across the
Carolinas from its center moving off the NE states later today and
tonight. The ILM CWA will also be temporarily affected by mid-level
ridging extending from the central Gulf Coast States. Plenty of dry
air in the mid and upper levels moving south and across the area as
illustrated by the latest Water Vapor Imagery and it`s trends. This
will result in subsidence aloft with an inversion shown by progged
soundings occurring between 700 and 500 mb. The pesky shower across
the westernmost portions of the ILM CWA should dissipate by sunrise
as this drier air continues to advect across the FA. Other than
morning low stratus and patchy fog, today should be an o.k. day with
skies becoming partly to mostly sunny sunny by mid to late morning.
Skies tonight will be mostly clear except possible low level
stratocu moving onshore from Myrtle Beach southward. Here winds sfc
to 750 mb will mainly be easterly helping to push the low clouds
onshore. A Consensus amongst the models gives mid to upper 80s for
highs and upper 60s to around 70 for tonights lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Longwave Pattern makes some changes this
period. The mid-upper level ridging from the central Gulf Coast
States extending to the Mid-Atlantic States on Monday gives way to
the transition to mid-upper level troffing basically affecting the
U.S east of the Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast, roughly
the eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The upper trof axis will remain
west of the ILM CWA. This transition means an active pcpn pattern
for the ILM CWA commencing late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night. The
sfc High pumping the ne-e winds across the FA will push offshore and
gradually lose its grip across the FA by Monday Night. Still tough,
Monday still looks like a mostly dry day with possible convection
along the afternoon/evening sea breeze/resultant wind boundary.

For late Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, a sfc cold front displaced
well away from its associated low, will track slowly to the east-
southeast reaching the FA during Tuesday and likely to stall across
the FA as it orients itself parallel to the flow aloft, ie. no
longer a push from aloft. Pcpn ahead of the front will push into the
nw portions of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Tuesday hrs. This
pcpn will overspread the FA during daytime Tue and persist thru
Tuesday Night. Sfc forcing from the cold front and mid-level s/w
trofs or vorts will both supply the dynamics for convection to
occur. For now have indicated POPs increasing to Good Chance late
Tue thru Tue Night. As for temps, will basically be about normal for
this time of the year on Monday, and possibly slightly below normal
especially for Max temps on Tuesday due to clouds and pcpn.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Cold front moving into the area at the start of
the period will linger in the region through Thu. Amplification of
shortwave trough over the TN Valley along with westward expansion of
Bermuda High will push the front west and north of the area Fri. The
front will remain stalled just beyond the edges of the forecast area
through the end of the week. Modest amplification of weak 5h trough
west of the area midweek will spread some moisture over the area,
but an abundance of deep moisture is not anticipated. Precipitable
water values will fluctuate between 1.3 and 1.6 inches during the
period which is near to slightly below climatological values. The
lack of any significant surface or mid level features, other than
the aforementioned weakening front, will keep diurnal instability
and convergence along lingering convective boundaries as the main
initiators of convection. Will maintain inherited chance pop
through Sat. Temperatures will be near climo with potential for
highs slightly below climo on any given day in areas with the
heaviest convection.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Sfc cold front will drop south of the ILM CWA by
daybreak Sun. Winds across all terminals will become ne-ene at 5
to 10 kt in its wake. IFR/MVFR ceilings from low stratus will
likely occur across all terminals except LBT. Low level moisture
remains deeper across areas south and east of LBT. For Sunday, sfc
high pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the Northeast
States. After 14-15z, expect all terminals to be rid of the low
level stratus with daytime few/scattered cu and sc taking its
place. Winds across all terminals after daybreak Sun will run
ne-ene around 10 kt. The resultant wind will develop and push
inland during the aftn and evening, veering the winds across the
coastal terminals to the ese-se at 10 to 15 kt. Enough subsidence
aloft will keep the enhanced cu along the resultant wind boundary
from developing any further. Thats not to say an isolated -shra is
possible. However, just not enough slight chance coverage to
warrant pops and even vcnty -shra. After sunset, diurnal driven
cu/sc will quickly dissipate leaving thin ci overhead. Winds will
back down to the ene-ese at 5 kt or less.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 10 PM Saturday...The front is drifting south across the
southern marine leg with E-NE flow in its wake. Speeds are up to 15
to 20 knots with 4 footers at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy. Plan to bump
the wind up based on latest observations and raise seas to around 4 ft
with the next update. Isolated shower is also possible, with most of
the convection found across the offshore waters versus the coastal
waters.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to
SE Monday and no headlines or caution statements appear to be
needed this period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since
drying from the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday
will subside another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bermuda High extending over the waters Wed
will be supplanted by weak cold front dropping southeast across
the waters Wed night into Thu. Surface high weakly builds in
behind the front with northeast flow developing Wed night and
lingering into Thu morning. Bermuda High expands back west with
southerly flow developing across the waters during Thu afternoon.
Weak gradient and proximity of waters to the frontal zone will
keep speeds 10 kt or less through the end of the period. Seas will
run 2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260807
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
405 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast southwest through
the Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold
front will approach the area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Patchy low cloudiness around the periphery of the drier (<65 Td)
airmass advecting in complements of northeast flow has been very
slowly expanding overnight. Clear skies and near zero dewpoint
depression in the northeast will permit development of patchy fog in
the northeast piedmont and northern coastal plain, with quick
dispersion after sunrise. Similarly elsewhere, expect some increased
coverage in the low cloudiness through the remainder of the
overnight with clearing by mid morning. As such, mostly sunny to
sunny skies are on tap Sunday, with highs ranging from mid 80s
across the northern tier to upper 80s across the south.

Short wave ridge axis from the western gulf coast into the Great
Lakes region shifts east over the area Sunday night. This will
maintain clear skies, even as the surface high off the New England
coast weakens with modest low level moisture advection ongoing in
return flow by sunrise. Mins will be persistence, mostly in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Moisture will be increasing in the west Monday morning, and
spreading into the east during the afternoon in return flow ahead of
a slow moving front. There will be a chance of afternoon convection
in the west, but convection will be suppressed in the east which
will be under a weakening short wave ridge aloft. Highs will be on
the uptick in the warm air advection regime supplemented by partly
to mostly sunny skies, with most areas within a degree or two either
side of 90.

The slow moving front will creep into the northwest early Monday
night and shower coverage will increase across all of central NC.
Thunder potential, especially for strong storms, will be lessened by
unfavorable diurnal timing and lack of elevated mixed layer, but
scattered storms will be possible due to strong low level
convergence and hints of mid level disturbances in westerly flow.
Mins will be a little warmer, 70-ish, due to heavier cloud coverage
and continued southwest flow prior to fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

A cold front will gradually move south across central NC during the
day Tuesday. Model timing of the front and prefrontal moisture
suggest the best chance for rain will occur during the morning and
afternoon, with rain shifting south and east of our CWA by early
evening as the front moves through.

The front is then expected to stall just to our south and east
Tuesday night, then move back inland through the mid-week period,
where it may then linger through the remainder of the long term
period as the longwave trough and cyclonic flow persists over the
eastern US.

This pattern warrants at least climo or better pops each day with
timing favoring the afternoon and evening hours and highest pops
across the eastern half of our cwa, along and east of the boundary.
Temps are expected to be near normal each day, with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 405 AM Sunday...

Very patchy MVFR cloudiness continues to try and expand across
central NC, and MVFR fog has developed in the northeast which is
under a cooler, drier northeast flow. Predawn IFR fog is possible at
RDU and RWI, which will burn off by 14Z, otherwise a brief period
MVFR ceilings are possible 08-14Z. Continued advection of drier air
is expected areawide today, resulting in VFR conditions from mid-
morning onward.

Long Term: VFR conditions will generally prevail Monday, with
chances of convection and associated adverse aviation conditions
increasing Monday night through Tuesday as our next frontal system
moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...mlm




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260750
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 AM EDT Sun JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast through the
Mid- Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold front
will approach the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Saturday...

Isolated convection persisting over the far se counties at mid-
evening. Low level instability gradient aiding to initiate/sustain
this convection. As nocturnal stabilizaton takes place, expect
convection to wane, with dissipation anticipated by 04z.

Low level east-ne flow will maintain a relatively moist air mass.
near term model guidance still best low level convergence in
vicinity of the southern/western piedmont. This will lead to the
formation of a deck of stratus by daybreak for areas near the Triad,
through the southern piedmont and possibly  near fayetteville as
well. Pocket of drier air may ooze into the northeast Piedmont
limiting stratus formation though could see patches of fog.

This pocket of "drier" air should allow temps to drop below 65
degrees in the far northeast Piedmont/northern Coastal Plain.
Elsewhere, min temps in the upper 60s-near 70 expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

A shot of drier and marginally cooler air from the northeast and
weak height rises aloft will lead to a more stable airmass over
central NC on Sunday. Forecast 1000-850mb thicknesses around 1400m
Sunday morning suggest highs much closer to normal, maybe a touch
below given east-northeasterly flow and mixing heights shy of
850mb. highs 83-88 northeast to southwest.

Stratus is possible again Sunday night as return starts to kick
in around the eastward shifting ridge axis. Cloud cover should nor
be widespread Monday morning, confined primarily to the western
Piedmont based on deterministic guidance. Lows 63-69.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

A cold front will gradually move south across central NC during the
day Tuesday. Model timing of the front and prefrontal moisture
suggest the best chance for rain will occur during the morning and
afternoon, with rain shifting south and east of our CWA by early
evening as the front moves through.

The front is then expected to stall just to our south and east
Tuesday night, then move back inland through the mid-week period,
where it may then linger through the remainder of the long term
period as the longwave trough and cyclonic flow persists over the
eastern US.

This pattern warrants at least climo or better pops each day with
timing favoring the afternoon and evening hours and highest pops
across the eastern half of our cwa, along and east of the boundary.
Temps are expected to be near normal each day, with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions have return to all central NC TAF sites this evening.
However, with a period of moist low level northeast to easterly flow
this evening into early Sunday morning we may see a period of MVFR
to IFR cigs develop this evening into early Sunday morning. The best
chance of seeing sub-VFR cigs will be at KGSO and KINT, as drier low
level air is expected to advect into the region in a northeast to
west fashion late this evening into early Sunday morning. This
should result in a smaller window of time this evening for sub-VFR
cigs to develop at KRWI and KRDU. Regardless, drier air is expected
areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR conditions by mid-morning at
the latest and onward.

Long Term: VFR conditions will generally prevail (brief chance on
Monday morning) until Monday night through Tuesday when the next
frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...rah
AVIATION...BSD/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260735
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north and ridge into the
region through Monday. A cold front will slowly move into the
region by mid week and linger in the vicinity with waves of low
pressure moving across it through late in the week. Another cold
front will approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
As of 335 AM Sun...High pressure will ridge into the central
Carolinas from the north with light NE winds and seasonably warm
temps prevailing. Expect low clouds in the morning then partly
cloudy skies today. Highs will be 85-88 interior to upper 70s OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 335 AM Sun...Quiet night on tap with the high pressure area
edging closer. This will produce calm/light winds and mainly clear
skies. Relatively low TD`s will allow for good radiational cooling
and lows in the 62-67 degree range interior to near 70 on the
beaches. Will introduce patchy fog for all but the beaches as the
calm winds and T-TD spreads near 0 allow for the patchy fog
development after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...After a mainly dry day Monday...an unsettled
period is expected through the remainder of the long term as a
cold front approaches the region Tuesday and then stalls across or
near the area Wednesday and remains quasi-stationary through the
end of the week.

Monday...High pressure sfc and aloft will be over the region
bringing mainly dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures.
Expect highs in the upper 80s inland with onshore flow holding
temps in the mid 80s NE sections with lower 80s along the northern
OBX.

Monday Night and Tuesday...A robust shortwave trough pushing
across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region will act to
break down the upper ridge while a cold front approaches the
region from the northwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase late Monday night and Tuesday as upper level diffluence
increase with the approach of the right entrance region of the
upper jet and have high chance to likely PoPs by Tuesday. Lows
Monday Night expected around 70 inland to mid 70s along the coast.
Clouds and precip will keep temps a few degrees below normal with
highs generally in the mid 80s.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow will persist
across the eastern CONUS through the long term with a cold front
progged to move into the region Tuesday Night and remain stalled
across or near the area through the rest of the week bringing a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. Don`t expect any particular
day to be a washout but scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible through the period with moist unstable conditions in
place. The best chance of showers will be during the afternoon and
evening hours when instability is maximized. Temps look to be near
normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s inland and mid
80s coast with lows in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 335 AM Sun...MVFR cigs will scatter and lift to VFR under
partly cloudy skies today. Winds will be light NE. Calm winds
tonight will allow for threat of patchy fog development after
midnight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 320 AM Sunday...VFR with dry weather Monday. Periods of
sub- VFR conditions possible in scattered convection Tuesday
through Thursday as a cold front affects the area. Patchy early
morning fog will also be possible...especially in areas that see
sufficient rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 335 AM Sun...High pressure building into the central
Carolinas will continue the NE winds through today, albeit fairly
light no higher than 15 kt. Seas will be mainly in the 2 to 4 foot
range. Winds veer east and diminish to 10 kt or less tonight as
the high gets closer.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...High pressure will continue to ridge into
the region from the northeast through Monday then will dissipate
with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds
will gradually veer to SE Monday and then SW Tuesday as a cold
front approaches from the NW. The front move into the region by
Wednesday and remain stalled across or near the region through
the end of the week. Generally expect descent boating conditions
through the period with winds mainly remaining below 15 kt with
seas around 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 260618
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
218 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will gradually spread into the area overnight and lead to
a rain free Sunday. Humidity and rain chances will creep up through
the week while temperatures remain fairly seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Saturday...The cold front will drift farther south and
is now off the Cape Fear coast and through GGE. Drier mid-level air
per water vapor imagery is poised across the Mid-Atlantic region and
will slowly push across the Carolinas. In the meantime, could see
isolated to widely scattered showers into the early morning hours.
The more robust convection is offshore and will remain offshore
through the remainder of the period. Could see fog in a few places
but better chances with some stratus developing or spreading in
overnight with low-level E-NE flow. Other than to hold onto slight
chance POPs a little longer, no major changes are needed to the
current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...A drying trend will bring pop reduction
below mentionable thresholds Sunday with a more comfortable feel.
An approaching cold front will bring a slight chance of showers
or a storm into our inland zones late Monday night. Slightly below
temperatures Sunday will rise to slightly above normal Monday in
the developing warm sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front dropping across the area
late Tuesday will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and it is this front that will create cooler and
potentially unsettled weather through the extended. As this front
sinks slowly to the SE late Tuesday and on Wednesday, it will
stall likely just offshore as troughing across the eastern CONUS
restrengthens periodically due to shortwaves rotating beneath it.
These shortwaves will continually pull the front back to the west
while at the same time serving as forcing for aftn convection.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent Tue/Wed as the
front moves across, but lowered heights aloft combined with
seasonable temps and humidity will provide enough instability to
drive diurnal type convection each day. The GFS is more robust
moving the front far enough offshore that it will have limited
impact on thunderstorm potential, while the ECM keeps it basically
overhead, therefore creating more widespread activity each day.
ECM has done the best recently and inherited favors it, so will
make only minor changes and show chc pop each day, highest
Tue/Wed, with temps right around climo.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...Sfc cold front will drop south of the ILM CWA by
daybreak Sun. Winds across all terminals will become ne-ene at 5
to 10 kt in its wake. IFR/MVFR ceilings from low stratus will
likely occur across all terminals except LBT. Low level moisture
remains deeper across areas south and east of LBT. For Sunday, sfc
high pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the Northeast
States. After 14-15z, expect all terminals to be rid of the low
level stratus with daytime few/scattered cu and sc taking its
place. Winds across all terminals after daybreak Sun will run
ne-ene around 10 kt. The resultant wind will develop and push
inland during the aftn and evening, veering the winds across the
coastal terminals to the ese-se at 10 to 15 kt. Enough subsidence
aloft will keep the enhanced cu along the resultant wind boundary
from developing any further. Thats not to say an isolated -shra is
possible. However, just not enough slight chance coverage to
warrant pops and even vcnty -shra. After sunset, diurnal driven
cu/sc will quickly dissipate leaving thin ci overhead. Winds will
back down to the ene-ese at 5 kt or less.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM MARINE/THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 10 PM Saturday...The front is drifting south across the
southern marine leg with E-NE flow in its wake. Speeds are up to 15
to 20 knots with 4 footers at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy. Plan to bump
the wind up based on latest observations and raise seas to around 4 ft
with the next update. Isolated shower is also possible, with most of
the convection found across the offshore waters versus the coastal
waters.

SHORT TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to SE
Monday and no headlines or caution statements appear to be needed
this period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since drying
from the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday will
subside another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...SW winds will start and end the period,
with a weakening cold front affecting the waters in between. Ahead
of this front, SW winds Tue into Wed will be 10-15 kts, and then
shift and weaken Wed even into Thu as the front crosses offshore
and stalls. This front will meander in a very weak fashion along
the coast Thursday, but as high pressure becomes dominant again
late in the period SW winds will re-develop again at 10-15 kts.
Seas will be around 2 ft much of the extended, with slight
increases to 2-3 ft early and late during the period of strongest
SW winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260206
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1006 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north tonight and Sunday. A
cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week and linger
in the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving across it
through late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1005 PM Sat...SHRA have finally pushed south and west of
region and expect generally dry weather overnight as drier/more
stable air gradually moves into the area. Satellite shows an area
of stratus over NE tier moving SW and will cross most of the
region overnight. Low temps will range from mid 60s inland to
lower 70s most beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sat...High pressure will build over the area from the
north with NE flow prevailing. Expect low clouds in the morning
then afternoon sunshine. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 pm Sat...not much change to the forecast for this
update. followed a consensus blend of wpc and other
models...which leaned towards the ecmwf for the latter part of the
forecast. A ridge of high pressure extending down the east coast
into the Carolinas Sunday Night into Monday will dissipate by
Monday evening. A cold front to the NW Tuesday will pass through
Tuesday evening and become stationary along or just off the
southern coast Wednesday through Saturday. Dry conditions Sunday
Night through Monday Evening. Chance PoPs for the rest of the
period with the front being the main focus for convection in a
warm, humid and unstable airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 615 PM Sat...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
this evening outside isolated early evening showers and
thunderstorms around OAJ. low confidence later tonight as some
guidance is quite bullish on low stratus with others showing
little if any. Given light ne flow will go close to previous fcst
with lower cigs developing after 06z with best chcs closer to cst.
What low clouds develop should gradually lift to mvfr mid morning
then vfr late morning thru the aftn.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 310 pm Sat...VFR with dry weather Sunday into Monday. Sub-
VFR in scattered convection Tuesday through Thursday as a cold
front affects the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 1005 PM Sat...High pressure building in from the N will
lead to NE winds 10 to 20 kts tonight that will diminish a bit
Sunday. Seas will be mainly in the 3 to 5 foot range tonight
subsiding to 2 to 4 feet Sunday.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 310 pm Sat...High pressure east of the New England coast
extending down the east coast Sunday Night into Monday will
dissipate, with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into
Wednesday. As a result, the NE flow Sunday will gradually veer to
SE Monday and SW Tuesday. A cold front will enter the area from
the NW late Tuesday night and become stationary near to just off
the south coast on Wednesday. not much confidence on exactly where
front will set up so wind direction forecast confidence is low.
regardless, pressure gradient through the period will not be very
tight, with winds forecast no higher than 5-15 knots and seas 2-4
feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RF/RSB
MARINE...RF/RSB




000
FXUS62 KILM 260205
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1005 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will gradually spread into the area overnight and lead to
a rain free Sunday. Humidity and rain chances will creep up through
the week while temperatures remain fairly seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Saturday...The cold front will drift farther south and
is now off the Cape Fear coast and through GGE. Drier mid-level air
per water vapor imagery is poised across the Mid-Atlantic region and
will slowly push across the Carolinas. In the meantime, could see
isolated to widely scattered showers into the early morning hours.
The more robust convection is offshore and will remain offshore
through the remainder of the period. Could see fog in a few places
but better chances with some stratus developing or spreading in
overnight with low-level E-NE flow. Other than to hold onto slight
chance POPs a little longer, no major changes are needed to the
current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...A drying trend will bring pop reduction
below mentionable thresholds Sunday with a more comfortable feel.
An approaching cold front will bring a slight chance of showers
or a storm into our inland zones late Monday night. Slightly below
temperatures Sunday will rise to slightly above normal Monday in
the developing warm sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front dropping across the area
late Tuesday will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and it is this front that will create cooler and
potentially unsettled weather through the extended. As this front
sinks slowly to the SE late Tuesday and on Wednesday, it will
stall likely just offshore as troughing across the eastern CONUS
restrengthens periodically due to shortwaves rotating beneath it.
These shortwaves will continually pull the front back to the west
while at the same time serving as forcing for aftn convection.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent Tue/Wed as the
front moves across, but lowered heights aloft combined with
seasonable temps and humidity will provide enough instability to
drive diurnal type convection each day. The GFS is more robust
moving the front far enough offshore that it will have limited
impact on thunderstorm potential, while the ECM keeps it basically
overhead, therefore creating more widespread activity each day.
ECM has done the best recently and inherited favors it, so will
make only minor changes and show chc pop each day, highest
Tue/Wed, with temps right around climo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...Convection is over for the most part, however isolated
convection will likely continue for the next couple of hours. Front
will continue to sag southward, with a light east northeast wind
anticipated overnight. Models are in reasonable agreement in
introducing stratus/fog overnight. With northeast flow on Sunday, the
IFR/MVFR conditions may linger for much of the morning, particularly
inland. Look for more of an easterly flow in the afternoon with
little or no convection expected.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR conditions
from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM MARINE/THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 10 PM Saturday...The front is drifting south across the
southern marine leg with E-NE flow in its wake. Speeds are up to 15
to 20 knots with 4 footers at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy. Plan to bump
the wind up based on latest observations and raise seas to around 4 ft
with the next update. Isolated shower is also possible, with most of
the convection found across the offshore waters versus the coastal
waters.

SHORT TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to SE
Monday and no headlines or caution statements appear to be needed
this period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since drying
from the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday will
subside another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...SW winds will start and end the period,
with a weakening cold front affecting the waters in between. Ahead
of this front, SW winds Tue into Wed will be 10-15 kts, and then
shift and weaken Wed even into Thu as the front crosses offshore
and stalls. This front will meander in a very weak fashion along
the coast Thursday, but as high pressure becomes dominant again
late in the period SW winds will re-develop again at 10-15 kts.
Seas will be around 2 ft much of the extended, with slight
increases to 2-3 ft early and late during the period of strongest
SW winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 260205
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1005 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will gradually spread into the area overnight and lead to
a rain free Sunday. Humidity and rain chances will creep up through
the week while temperatures remain fairly seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Saturday...The cold front will drift farther south and
is now off the Cape Fear coast and through GGE. Drier mid-level air
per water vapor imagery is poised across the Mid-Atlantic region and
will slowly push across the Carolinas. In the meantime, could see
isolated to widely scattered showers into the early morning hours.
The more robust convection is offshore and will remain offshore
through the remainder of the period. Could see fog in a few places
but better chances with some stratus developing or spreading in
overnight with low-level E-NE flow. Other than to hold onto slight
chance POPs a little longer, no major changes are needed to the
current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...A drying trend will bring pop reduction
below mentionable thresholds Sunday with a more comfortable feel.
An approaching cold front will bring a slight chance of showers
or a storm into our inland zones late Monday night. Slightly below
temperatures Sunday will rise to slightly above normal Monday in
the developing warm sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front dropping across the area
late Tuesday will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and it is this front that will create cooler and
potentially unsettled weather through the extended. As this front
sinks slowly to the SE late Tuesday and on Wednesday, it will
stall likely just offshore as troughing across the eastern CONUS
restrengthens periodically due to shortwaves rotating beneath it.
These shortwaves will continually pull the front back to the west
while at the same time serving as forcing for aftn convection.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent Tue/Wed as the
front moves across, but lowered heights aloft combined with
seasonable temps and humidity will provide enough instability to
drive diurnal type convection each day. The GFS is more robust
moving the front far enough offshore that it will have limited
impact on thunderstorm potential, while the ECM keeps it basically
overhead, therefore creating more widespread activity each day.
ECM has done the best recently and inherited favors it, so will
make only minor changes and show chc pop each day, highest
Tue/Wed, with temps right around climo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...Convection is over for the most part, however isolated
convection will likely continue for the next couple of hours. Front
will continue to sag southward, with a light east northeast wind
anticipated overnight. Models are in reasonable agreement in
introducing stratus/fog overnight. With northeast flow on Sunday, the
IFR/MVFR conditions may linger for much of the morning, particularly
inland. Look for more of an easterly flow in the afternoon with
little or no convection expected.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR conditions
from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM MARINE/THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 10 PM Saturday...The front is drifting south across the
southern marine leg with E-NE flow in its wake. Speeds are up to 15
to 20 knots with 4 footers at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy. Plan to bump
the wind up based on latest observations and raise seas to around 4 ft
with the next update. Isolated shower is also possible, with most of
the convection found across the offshore waters versus the coastal
waters.

SHORT TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to SE
Monday and no headlines or caution statements appear to be needed
this period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since drying
from the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday will
subside another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...SW winds will start and end the period,
with a weakening cold front affecting the waters in between. Ahead
of this front, SW winds Tue into Wed will be 10-15 kts, and then
shift and weaken Wed even into Thu as the front crosses offshore
and stalls. This front will meander in a very weak fashion along
the coast Thursday, but as high pressure becomes dominant again
late in the period SW winds will re-develop again at 10-15 kts.
Seas will be around 2 ft much of the extended, with slight
increases to 2-3 ft early and late during the period of strongest
SW winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260146
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
945 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast through the
Mid- Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold front
will approach the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Saturday...

Isolated convection persisting over the far se counties at mid-
evening. Low level instability gradient aiding to initiate/sustain
this convection. As nocturnal stabilizaton takes place, expect
convection to wane, with dissipation anticipated by 04z.

Low level east-ne flow will maintain a relatively moist air mass.
near term model guidance still best low level convergence in
vicinity of the southern/western piedmont. This will lead to the
formation of a deck of stratus by daybreak for areas near the Triad,
through the southern piedmont and possibly  near fayetteville as
well. Pocket of drier air may ooze into the northeast Piedmont
limiting stratus formation though could see patches of fog.

This pocket of "drier" air should allow temps to drop below 65
degrees in the far northeast Piedmont/northern Coastal Plain.
Elsewhere, min temps in the upper 60s-near 70 expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

A shot of drier and marginally cooler air from the northeast and
weak height rises aloft will lead to a more stable airmass over
central NC on Sunday. Forecast 1000-850mb thicknesses around 1400m
Sunday morning suggest highs much closer to normal, maybe a touch
below given east-northeasterly flow and mixing heights shy of
850mb. highs 83-88 northeast to southwest.

Stratus is possible again Sunday night as return starts to kick
in around the eastward shifting ridge axis. Cloud cover should nor
be widespread Monday morning, confined primarily to the western
Piedmont based on deterministic guidance. Lows 63-69.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM Saturday...

Mon and Mon night: Mon will be largely dominated by continued
ridging --aloft between trough amplification across the Great
Lakes and a developing and slightly retrogressive upper low off
the Middle Atlantic coast, and at the surface as a relatively
cooler/drier and stable ridge lingers along the New England and
Middle Atlantic coasts. The exception will be over the
Appalachians and WRN Carolinas/VA, in association with the
development of a lee surface trough coincident with the arrival of
a warm front during the afternoon. Associated low level
convergence and warm and moist advection /destablization/ will
support the development and maintenance of showers and storms into
the WRN Piedmont late in the afternoon, before propagating along
outflow across all but perhaps the SERN third of the CWFA
overnight. Limited deep layer flow suggests a disorganized and
mostly sub-severe multi-cell storm mode.

Outflow and a probable effective frontal zone will then linger
and/or drift across the SERN zones on Tue, where it will focus
scattered to numerous showers and storms, some of which may become
severe owing to strengthening mid-upper level cyclonic flow, and
associated effective bulk shear. Widespread multi-layered cloud
cover and generally weak mid level lapse rates will hinder
destabilization, however, so any associated predictability/confidence
in severe weather at this time range is too low for mention in
the HWO.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN
U.S., with an associated low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough, along the Gulf
Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states, including at
least the SERN half of central NC. The probability of showers and
storms will consequently be at or above climatology, with
temperatures around, to slightly below, normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions have return to all central NC TAF sites this evening.
However, with a period of moist low level northeast to easterly flow
this evening into early Sunday morning we may see a period of MVFR
to IFR cigs develop this evening into early Sunday morning. The best
chance of seeing sub-VFR cigs will be at KGSO and KINT, as drier low
level air is expected to advect into the region in a northeast to
west fashion late this evening into early Sunday morning. This
should result in a smaller window of time this evening for sub-VFR
cigs to develop at KRWI and KRDU. Regardless, drier air is expected
areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR conditions by mid-morning at
the latest and onward.

Long Term: VFR conditions will generally prevail (brief chance on
Monday morning) until Monday night through Tuesday when the next
frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260146
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
945 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast through the
Mid- Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold front
will approach the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Saturday...

Isolated convection persisting over the far se counties at mid-
evening. Low level instability gradient aiding to initiate/sustain
this convection. As nocturnal stabilizaton takes place, expect
convection to wane, with dissipation anticipated by 04z.

Low level east-ne flow will maintain a relatively moist air mass.
near term model guidance still best low level convergence in
vicinity of the southern/western piedmont. This will lead to the
formation of a deck of stratus by daybreak for areas near the Triad,
through the southern piedmont and possibly  near fayetteville as
well. Pocket of drier air may ooze into the northeast Piedmont
limiting stratus formation though could see patches of fog.

This pocket of "drier" air should allow temps to drop below 65
degrees in the far northeast Piedmont/northern Coastal Plain.
Elsewhere, min temps in the upper 60s-near 70 expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

A shot of drier and marginally cooler air from the northeast and
weak height rises aloft will lead to a more stable airmass over
central NC on Sunday. Forecast 1000-850mb thicknesses around 1400m
Sunday morning suggest highs much closer to normal, maybe a touch
below given east-northeasterly flow and mixing heights shy of
850mb. highs 83-88 northeast to southwest.

Stratus is possible again Sunday night as return starts to kick
in around the eastward shifting ridge axis. Cloud cover should nor
be widespread Monday morning, confined primarily to the western
Piedmont based on deterministic guidance. Lows 63-69.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM Saturday...

Mon and Mon night: Mon will be largely dominated by continued
ridging --aloft between trough amplification across the Great
Lakes and a developing and slightly retrogressive upper low off
the Middle Atlantic coast, and at the surface as a relatively
cooler/drier and stable ridge lingers along the New England and
Middle Atlantic coasts. The exception will be over the
Appalachians and WRN Carolinas/VA, in association with the
development of a lee surface trough coincident with the arrival of
a warm front during the afternoon. Associated low level
convergence and warm and moist advection /destablization/ will
support the development and maintenance of showers and storms into
the WRN Piedmont late in the afternoon, before propagating along
outflow across all but perhaps the SERN third of the CWFA
overnight. Limited deep layer flow suggests a disorganized and
mostly sub-severe multi-cell storm mode.

Outflow and a probable effective frontal zone will then linger
and/or drift across the SERN zones on Tue, where it will focus
scattered to numerous showers and storms, some of which may become
severe owing to strengthening mid-upper level cyclonic flow, and
associated effective bulk shear. Widespread multi-layered cloud
cover and generally weak mid level lapse rates will hinder
destabilization, however, so any associated predictability/confidence
in severe weather at this time range is too low for mention in
the HWO.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN
U.S., with an associated low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough, along the Gulf
Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states, including at
least the SERN half of central NC. The probability of showers and
storms will consequently be at or above climatology, with
temperatures around, to slightly below, normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions have return to all central NC TAF sites this evening.
However, with a period of moist low level northeast to easterly flow
this evening into early Sunday morning we may see a period of MVFR
to IFR cigs develop this evening into early Sunday morning. The best
chance of seeing sub-VFR cigs will be at KGSO and KINT, as drier low
level air is expected to advect into the region in a northeast to
west fashion late this evening into early Sunday morning. This
should result in a smaller window of time this evening for sub-VFR
cigs to develop at KRWI and KRDU. Regardless, drier air is expected
areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR conditions by mid-morning at
the latest and onward.

Long Term: VFR conditions will generally prevail (brief chance on
Monday morning) until Monday night through Tuesday when the next
frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260002
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
801 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast through the
Mid- Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold front
will approach the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

The surface cold front and leading edge of this morning`s stratus
has settled near the NC/SC border, where scattered storms
developed, mainly south of FAY and CTZ within 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE. These storms are drifting off to the southeast, so the
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain may only see an isolated
cell or two the remainder of the afternoon. Further north, the
stratus has been breaking pretty rapidly since noon, and a few
very light showers are possible in the Piedmont as the stratocu
field grows with brief heating.

Given the amount of low-level moisture lingering across the area
this afternoon, some low clouds should redevelop tonight, likely
shunted off the south and west as drier air noted over the
Delmarva spreads in. The NAM and ECMWF show more in the way of
stratus across the southern and western Piedmont, which is
preferred at the moment. The drier air will allow for better
cooling under less cloud cover, yielding lows in the lower 60s
northeast to near 70 southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

A shot of drier and marginally cooler air from the northeast and
weak height rises aloft will lead to a more stable airmass over
central NC on Sunday. Forecast 1000-850mb thicknesses around 1400m
Sunday morning suggest highs much closer to normal, maybe a touch
below given east-northeasterly flow and mixing heights shy of
850mb. highs 83-88 northeast to southwest.

Stratus is possible again Sunday night as return starts to kick
in around the eastward shifting ridge axis. Cloud cover should nor
be widespread Monday morning, confined primarily to the western
Piedmont based on deterministic guidance. Lows 63-69.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM Saturday...

Mon and Mon night: Mon will be largely dominated by continued
ridging --aloft between trough amplification across the Great
Lakes and a developing and slightly retrogressive upper low off
the Middle Atlantic coast, and at the surface as a relatively
cooler/drier and stable ridge lingers along the New England and
Middle Atlantic coasts. The exception will be over the
Appalachians and WRN Carolinas/VA, in association with the
development of a lee surface trough coincident with the arrival of
a warm front during the afternoon. Associated low level
convergence and warm and moist advection /destablization/ will
support the development and maintenance of showers and storms into
the WRN Piedmont late in the afternoon, before propagating along
outflow across all but perhaps the SERN third of the CWFA
overnight. Limited deep layer flow suggests a disorganized and
mostly sub-severe multi-cell storm mode.

Outflow and a probable effective frontal zone will then linger
and/or drift across the SERN zones on Tue, where it will focus
scattered to numerous showers and storms, some of which may become
severe owing to strengthening mid-upper level cyclonic flow, and
associated effective bulk shear. Widespread multi-layered cloud
cover and generally weak mid level lapse rates will hinder
destabilization, however, so any associated predictability/confidence
in severe weather at this time range is too low for mention in
the HWO.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN
U.S., with an associated low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough, along the Gulf
Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states, including at
least the SERN half of central NC. The probability of showers and
storms will consequently be at or above climatology, with
temperatures around, to slightly below, normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions have return to all central NC TAF sites this evening.
However, with a period of moist low level northeast to easterly flow
this evening into early Sunday morning we may see a period of MVFR
to IFR cigs develop this evening into early Sunday morning. The best
chance of seeing sub-VFR cigs will be at KGSO and KINT, as drier low
level air is expected to advect into the region in a northeast to
west fashion late this evening into early Sunday morning. This
should result in a smaller window of time this evening for sub-VFR
cigs to develop at KRWI and KRDU. Regardless, drier air is expected
areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR conditions by mid-morning at
the latest and onward.

Long Term: VFR conditions will generally prevail (brief chance on
Monday morning) until Monday night through Tuesday when the next
frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KILM 252310
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
710 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will spread into the area overnight and lead to a rain
free Sunday. Humidity and rain chances will creep up through the
week while temperatures remain fairly seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 710 PM Saturday...a cold front from near Cape Fear to
Greeleyville will continue to drift southward tonight. The intense
convection has ended earlier this evening leaving a few areas across
Florence, Williamsburg and Georgetown counties with tree damage
prior to dissipating. Otherwise for the remainder of this evening
expect isolated to widely scattered showers and tstms with drier
conditions overnight. Made adjustments to the gridded temperature
fields as they were cooled in many locations by the earlier
convection. The rest of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...A drying trend will bring pop reduction
below mentionable thresholds Sunday with a more comfortable feel.
An approaching cold front will bring a slight chance of showers
or a storm into our inland zones late Monday night. Slightly below
temperatures Sunday will rise to slightly above normal Monday in
the developing warm sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front dropping across the area
late Tuesday will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and it is this front that will create cooler and
potentially unsettled weather through the extended. As this front
sinks slowly to the SE late Tuesday and on Wednesday, it will
stall likely just offshore as troughing across the eastern CONUS
restrengthens periodically due to shortwaves rotating beneath it.
These shortwaves will continually pull the front back to the west
while at the same time serving as forcing for aftn convection.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent Tue/Wed as the
front moves across, but lowered heights aloft combined with
seasonable temps and humidity will provide enough instability to
drive diurnal type convection each day. The GFS is more robust
moving the front far enough offshore that it will have limited
impact on thunderstorm potential, while the ECM keeps it basically
overhead, therefore creating more widespread activity each day.
ECM has done the best recently and inherited favors it, so will
make only minor changes and show chc pop each day, highest
Tue/Wed, with temps right around climo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...Convection is over for the most part, however isolated
convection will likely continue for the next couple of hours. Front
will continue to sag southward, with a light east northeast wind
anticipated overnight. Models are in reasonable agreement in
introducing stratus/fog overnight. With northeast flow on Sunday, the
IFR/MVFR conditions may linger for much of the morning, particularly
inland. Look for more of an easterly flow in the afternoon with
little or no convection expected.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR conditions
from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM MARINE/THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 710 PM Saturday...Northeasterly flow is in place across most
of the waters this evening. As the front drifts farther south
speeds may increase a notch overnight. Seas are expected to be
2-4 ft across most of the waters tonight and widely scattered showers
and tstms are also possible.

SHORT TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to SE
Monday and no headlines or caution statements appear to be needed
this period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since drying
from the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday will
subside another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...SW winds will start and end the period,
with a weakening cold front affecting the waters in between. Ahead
of this front, SW winds Tue into Wed will be 10-15 kts, and then
shift and weaken Wed even into Thu as the front crosses offshore
and stalls. This front will meander in a very weak fashion along
the coast Thursday, but as high pressure becomes dominant again
late in the period SW winds will re-develop again at 10-15 kts.
Seas will be around 2 ft much of the extended, with slight
increases to 2-3 ft early and late during the period of strongest
SW winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 252310
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
710 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will spread into the area overnight and lead to a rain
free Sunday. Humidity and rain chances will creep up through the
week while temperatures remain fairly seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 710 PM Saturday...a cold front from near Cape Fear to
Greeleyville will continue to drift southward tonight. The intense
convection has ended earlier this evening leaving a few areas across
Florence, Williamsburg and Georgetown counties with tree damage
prior to dissipating. Otherwise for the remainder of this evening
expect isolated to widely scattered showers and tstms with drier
conditions overnight. Made adjustments to the gridded temperature
fields as they were cooled in many locations by the earlier
convection. The rest of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...A drying trend will bring pop reduction
below mentionable thresholds Sunday with a more comfortable feel.
An approaching cold front will bring a slight chance of showers
or a storm into our inland zones late Monday night. Slightly below
temperatures Sunday will rise to slightly above normal Monday in
the developing warm sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front dropping across the area
late Tuesday will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and it is this front that will create cooler and
potentially unsettled weather through the extended. As this front
sinks slowly to the SE late Tuesday and on Wednesday, it will
stall likely just offshore as troughing across the eastern CONUS
restrengthens periodically due to shortwaves rotating beneath it.
These shortwaves will continually pull the front back to the west
while at the same time serving as forcing for aftn convection.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent Tue/Wed as the
front moves across, but lowered heights aloft combined with
seasonable temps and humidity will provide enough instability to
drive diurnal type convection each day. The GFS is more robust
moving the front far enough offshore that it will have limited
impact on thunderstorm potential, while the ECM keeps it basically
overhead, therefore creating more widespread activity each day.
ECM has done the best recently and inherited favors it, so will
make only minor changes and show chc pop each day, highest
Tue/Wed, with temps right around climo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...Convection is over for the most part, however isolated
convection will likely continue for the next couple of hours. Front
will continue to sag southward, with a light east northeast wind
anticipated overnight. Models are in reasonable agreement in
introducing stratus/fog overnight. With northeast flow on Sunday, the
IFR/MVFR conditions may linger for much of the morning, particularly
inland. Look for more of an easterly flow in the afternoon with
little or no convection expected.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR conditions
from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM MARINE/THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 710 PM Saturday...Northeasterly flow is in place across most
of the waters this evening. As the front drifts farther south
speeds may increase a notch overnight. Seas are expected to be
2-4 ft across most of the waters tonight and widely scattered showers
and tstms are also possible.

SHORT TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to SE
Monday and no headlines or caution statements appear to be needed
this period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since drying
from the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday will
subside another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...SW winds will start and end the period,
with a weakening cold front affecting the waters in between. Ahead
of this front, SW winds Tue into Wed will be 10-15 kts, and then
shift and weaken Wed even into Thu as the front crosses offshore
and stalls. This front will meander in a very weak fashion along
the coast Thursday, but as high pressure becomes dominant again
late in the period SW winds will re-develop again at 10-15 kts.
Seas will be around 2 ft much of the extended, with slight
increases to 2-3 ft early and late during the period of strongest
SW winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 252231
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
631 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air will be ushered into the area overnight and lead to a rain
free Sunday. Humidity and rain chances will creep up through the
week while temperatures remain fairly seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...W to E oriented convection dropping south
much different than yesterday`s eastward progression, which will
reduce but not completely eliminate the localized flooding threat.
The orientation lines up well with an 850 mb front residing just
above the 5KFt onshore easterly flow in wake of the SFC front. The
storms will sink south through afternoon and early evening into SC
and offshore as the h8 front slips south. The main threat will be
a 5 percent chance of straight-line wind damage. Diurnal cooling
and placement of this feature will bring a reduction in storm
coverage and intensity tonight. Isolated convection remains
possible overnight though, due to low-level convergence caused by
a secondary push of low-level NE wind. This mini-surge in turn
will help usher slightly lower absolute humidity into the area and
dewpoints into the upper 60s into early Sunday. Minimum temps
daybreak Sunday 68-74 degrees from SE NC to NE SC respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...A drying trend will bring pop reduction
below mentionable thresholds Sunday with a more comfortable feel.
An approaching cold front will bring a slight chance of showers
or a storm into our inland zones late Monday night. Slightly below
temperatures Sunday will rise to slightly above normal Monday in
the developing warm sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front dropping across the area
late Tuesday will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and it is this front that will create cooler and
potentially unsettled weather through the extended. As this front
sinks slowly to the SE late Tuesday and on Wednesday, it will
stall likely just offshore as troughing across the eastern CONUS
restrengthens periodically due to shortwaves rotating beneath it.
These shortwaves will continually pull the front back to the west
while at the same time serving as forcing for aftn convection.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent Tue/Wed as the
front moves across, but lowered heights aloft combined with
seasonable temps and humidity will provide enough instability to
drive diurnal type convection each day. The GFS is more robust
moving the front far enough offshore that it will have limited
impact on thunderstorm potential, while the ECM keeps it basically
overhead, therefore creating more widespread activity each day.
ECM has done the best recently and inherited favors it, so will
make only minor changes and show chc pop each day, highest
Tue/Wed, with temps right around climo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...Convection is over for the most part, however isolated
convection will likely continue for the next couple of hours. Front
will continue to sag southward, with a light east northeast wind
anticipated overnight. Models are in reasonable agreement in
introducing stratus/fog overnight. With northeast flow on Sunday, the
IFR/MVFR conditions may linger for much of the morning, particularly
inland. Look for more of an easterly flow in the afternoon with
little or no convection expected.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR conditions
from convection Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM MARINE/THROUGH TONIGHT/ As of 335 PM Saturday...Aside
from TSTMS and the associated cloud to sea lightning strikes,
winds and seas will remain manageable for the marine community
with winds becoming NE 15 KT overnight and seas around 3 ft, a few
higher gusts tonight with surge but no caution or advisory
headlines are expected. Mariners are advised to get a radar update
before heading out this evening or tonight. A moderate 1-2 ft NE
chop will interact with residual SE waves of 1-2 ft every 9
seconds.

SHORT TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ As of 335 PM
Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to SE Monday and
no headlines or caution statements appear to be needed this
period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since drying from
the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday will subside
another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...SW winds will start and end the period,
with a weakening cold front affecting the waters in between. Ahead
of this front, SW winds Tue into Wed will be 10-15 kts, and then
shift and weaken Wed even into Thu as the front crosses offshore
and stalls. This front will meander in a very weak fashion along
the coast Thursday, but as high pressure becomes dominant again
late in the period SW winds will re-develop again at 10-15 kts.
Seas will be around 2 ft much of the extended, with slight
increases to 2-3 ft early and late during the period of strongest
SW winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KMHX 252225
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
625 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north tonight and Sunday. A
cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week and linger
in the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving across it
through late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 615 PM Sat...Will cont chc pops far sw tier a little longer
as weak convection conts to develop in this area along various
boundaries. This activity shld be gone shortly as drier/more
stable air gradually moves into the area overnight.

Low level moisture spreading under the nocturnal inversion will
likely lead to the develop of low clouds later tonight. Overnight
lows will range from mid 60s inland to lower 70s most beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sat...High pressure will build over the area from the
north with NE flow prevailing. Expect low clouds in the morning
then afternoon sunshine. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 pm Sat...not much change to the forecast for this
update. followed a consensus blend of wpc and other
models...which leaned towards the ecmwf for the latter part of the
forecast. A ridge of high pressure extending down the east coast
into the Carolinas Sunday Night into Monday will dissipate by
Monday evening. A cold front to the NW Tuesday will pass through
Tuesday evening and become stationary along or just off the
southern coast Wednesday through Saturday. Dry conditions Sunday
Night through Monday Evening. Chance PoPs for the rest of the
period with the front being the main focus for convection in a
warm, humid and unstable airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 615 PM Sat...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
this evening outside isolated early evening showers and
thunderstorms around OAJ. low confidence later tonight as some
guidance is quite bullish on low stratus with others showing
little if any. Given light ne flow will go close to previous fcst
with lower cigs developing after 06z with best chcs closer to cst.
What low clouds develop should gradually lift to mvfr mid morning
then vfr late morning thru the aftn.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 310 pm Sat...VFR with dry weather Sunday into Monday. Sub-
VFR in scattered convection Tuesday through Thursday as a cold
front affects the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 300 PM Sat...Fcst looks good with no changes planned.

Previous Discussion...The cold front will move south of the
waters by early evening with NE flow 10 to 20 kt expected this
evening subsiding to 10 to 15 kt late tonight and Sunday as high
pressure builds over the waters. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft through
Sunday with some 5 ft seas expected over the outer southern and
central waters this evening.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 310 pm Sat...High pressure east of the New England coast
extending down the east coast Sunday Night into Monday will
dissipate, with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into
Wednesday. As a result, the NE flow Sunday will gradually veer to
SE Monday and SW Tuesday. A cold front will enter the area from
the NW late Tuesday night and become stationary near to just off
the south coast on Wednesday. not much confidence on exactly where
front will set up so wind direction forecast confidence is low.
regardless, pressure gradient through the period will not be very
tight, with winds forecast no higher than 5-15 knots and seas 2-4
feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RF/RSB
MARINE...RSB/RF/JME




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251959
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
359 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast through the
Mid- Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold front
will approach the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

The surface cold front and leading edge of this morning`s stratus
has settled near the NC/SC border, where scattered storms
developed, mainly south of FAY and CTZ within 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE. These storms are drifting off to the southeast, so the
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain may only see an isolated
cell or two the remainder of the afternoon. Further north, the
stratus has been breaking pretty rapidly since noon, and a few
very light showers are possible in the Piedmont as the stratocu
field grows with brief heating.

Given the amount of low-level moisture lingering across the area
this afternoon, some low clouds should redevelop tonight, likely
shunted off the south and west as drier air noted over the
Delmarva spreads in. The NAM and ECMWF show more in the way of
stratus across the southern and western Piedmont, which is
preferred at the moment. The drier air will allow for better
cooling under less cloud cover, yielding lows in the lower 60s
northeast to near 70 southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

A shot of drier and marginally cooler air from the northeast and
weak height rises aloft will lead to a more stable airmass over
central NC on Sunday. Forecast 1000-850mb thicknesses around 1400m
Sunday morning suggest highs much closer to normal, maybe a touch
below given east-northeasterly flow and mixing heights shy of
850mb. highs 83-88 northeast to southwest.

Stratus is possible again Sunday night as return starts to kick
in around the eastward shifting ridge axis. Cloud cover should nor
be widespread Monday morning, confined primarily to the western
Piedmont based on deterministic guidance. Lows 63-69.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM Saturday...

Mon and Mon night: Mon will be largely dominated by continued
ridging --aloft between trough amplification across the Great
Lakes and a developing and slightly retrogressive upper low off
the Middle Atlantic coast, and at the surface as a relatively
cooler/drier and stable ridge lingers along the New England and
Middle Atlantic coasts. The exception will be over the
Appalachians and WRN Carolinas/VA, in association with the
development of a lee surface trough coincident with the arrival of
a warm front during the afternoon. Associated low level
convergence and warm and moist advection /destablization/ will
support the development and maintenance of showers and storms into
the WRN Piedmont late in the afternoon, before propagating along
outflow across all but perhaps the SERN third of the CWFA
overnight. Limited deep layer flow suggests a disorganized and
mostly sub-severe multi-cell storm mode.

Outflow and a probable effective frontal zone will then linger
and/or drift across the SERN zones on Tue, where it will focus
scattered to numerous showers and storms, some of which may become
severe owing to strengthening mid-upper level cyclonic flow, and
associated effective bulk shear. Widespread multi-layered cloud
cover and generally weak mid level lapse rates will hinder
destabilization, however, so any associated predictability/confidence
in severe weather at this time range is too low for mention in
the HWO.

The remainder of the medium range period will be characterized by
continued troughing/cyclonic flow aloft across much of the ERN
U.S., with an associated low level frontal zone and focus for
showers and storms peripheral to the trough, along the Gulf
Coast/Southeastern/and SRN Middle Atlantic states, including at
least the SERN half of central NC. The probability of showers and
storms will consequently be at or above climatology, with
temperatures around, to slightly below, normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Lingering MVFR stratus from KINT to KRWI is begging to show signs
breaking out on visible imagery, which will result in a sct/bkn
stratocu field between 2000 and 300t ft this afternoon. KFAY is
just south of the MVFR ceilings, but a period of MVFR may be
possible there too through 23z. A period of VFR should develop
this evening before low clouds redevelop after midnight, likely
being shunted south and west toward KINT/KGSO/KFAY as drier air
spreads in from the northeast. Forecast models vary widely in the
coverage and level of the stratus, so confidence isn`t terribly
high, but given the amount of low-level moisture observed today,
prefer the more pessimistic guidance.

Drier air is expected areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR
conditions by mid-morning at the latest.

Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Monday night through
Tuesday when the next frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KILM 251942
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
342 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air will be ushered into the area overnight and lead to a rain
free Sunday. Humidity and rain chances will creep up through the
week while temperatures remain fairly seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...W to E oriented convection dropping south
much different than yesterday`s eastward progression, which will
reduce but not completely eliminate the localized flooding threat.
The orientation lines up well with an 850 mb front residing just
above the 5KFt onshore easterly flow in wake of the SFC front. The
storms will sink south through afternoon and early evening into SC
and offshore as the h8 front slips south. The main threat will be
a 5 percent chance of straight-line wind damage. Diurnal cooling
and placement of this feature will bring a reduction in storm
coverage and intensity tonight. Isolated convection remains
possible overnight though, due to low-level convergence caused by
a secondary push of low-level NE wind. This mini-surge in turn
will help usher slightly lower absolute humidity into the area and
dewpoints into the upper 60s into early Sunday. Minimum temps
daybreak Sunday 68-74 degrees from SE NC to NE SC respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...A drying trend will bring pop reduction
below mentionable thresholds Sunday with a more comfortable feel.
An approaching cold front will bring a slight chance of showers
or a storm into our inland zones late Monday night. Slightly below
temperatures Sunday will rise to slightly above normal Monday in
the developing warm sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front dropping across the area
late Tuesday will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and it is this front that will create cooler and
potentially unsettled weather through the extended. As this front
sinks slowly to the SE late Tuesday and on Wednesday, it will
stall likely just offshore as troughing across the eastern CONUS
restrengthens periodically due to shortwaves rotating beneath it.
These shortwaves will continually pull the front back to the west
while at the same time serving as forcing for aftn convection.
Showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent Tue/Wed as the
front moves across, but lowered heights aloft combined with
seasonable temps and humidity will provide enough instability to
drive diurnal type convection each day. The GFS is more robust
moving the front far enough offshore that it will have limited
impact on thunderstorm potential, while the ECM keeps it basically
overhead, therefore creating more widespread activity each day.
ECM has done the best recently and inherited favors it, so will
make only minor changes and show chc pop each day, highest
Tue/Wed, with temps right around climo.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...Thunderstorms breaking out now north of frontal boundary
and should affect LBT with bouts of MVFR to possibly short-lived IFR.
As these storms gradually drop south they will do the same at
remaining terminals, KFLO shortly and SC airports closer to 19 or
20Z. Coverage and intensity will rapidly wane towards sunset and
some overnight MVFR ceilings will develop. Some guidance hinting at
brief IFR ceilings. Soon after sunrise Sunday conditions improve to
VFR where they shall remain all day.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR conditions
from convection today and again Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM MARINE/THROUGH TONIGHT/ As of 335 PM Saturday...Aside
from TSTMS and the associated cloud to sea lightning strikes,
winds and seas will remain manageable for the marine community
with winds becoming NE 15 KT overnight and seas around 3 ft, a few
higher gusts tonight with surge but no caution or advisory
headlines are expected. Mariners are advised to get a radar update
before heading out this evening or tonight. A moderate 1-2 ft NE
chop will interact with residual SE waves of 1-2 ft every 9
seconds.

SHORT TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ As of 335 PM
Saturday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT Sunday will veer to SE Monday and
no headlines or caution statements appear to be needed this
period. Even TSTM coverage will trend downward since drying from
the north will prevail. Seas of 3-4 feet into Sunday will subside
another foot or so to 2-3 feet on Monday.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...SW winds will start and end the period,
with a weakening cold front affecting the waters in between. Ahead
of this front, SW winds Tue into Wed will be 10-15 kts, and then
shift and weaken Wed even into Thu as the front crosses offshore
and stalls. This front will meander in a very weak fashion along
the coast Thursday, but as high pressure becomes dominant again
late in the period SW winds will re-develop again at 10-15 kts.
Seas will be around 2 ft much of the extended, with slight
increases to 2-3 ft early and late during the period of strongest
SW winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MBB




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251930
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast through the
Mid- Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold front
will approach the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
as of 330 PM Saturday...

The surface cold front and leading edge of this morning`s stratus
has settled near the NC/SC border, where scattered storms
developed, mainly south of FAY and CTZ within 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE. These storms are drifting off to the southeast, so the
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain may only see an isolated
cell or two the remainder of the afternoon. Further north, the
stratus has been breaking pretty rapidly since noon, and a few
very light showers are possible in the Piedmont as the stratocu
field grows with brief heating.

Given the amount of low-level moisture lingering across the area
this afternoon, some low clouds should redevelop tonight, likely
shunted off the south and west as drier air noted over the
Delmarva spreads in. The NAM and ECMWF show more in the way of
stratus across the southern and western Piedmont, which is
preferred at the moment. The drier air will allow for better
cooling under less cloud cover, yielding lows in the lower 60s
northeast to near 70 southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

A shot of drier and marginally cooler air from the northeast and
weak height rises aloft will lead to a more stable airmass over
central NC on Sunday. Forecast 1000-850mb thicknesses around 1400m
Sunday morning suggest highs much closer to normal, maybe a touch
below given east-northeasterly flow and mixing heights shy of
850mb. highs 83-88 northeast to southwest.

Stratus is possible again Sunday night as return starts to kick
in around the eastward shifting ridge axis. Cloud cover should nor
be widespread Monday morning, confined primarily to the western
Piedmont based on deterministic guidance. Lows 63-69.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The Great Lakes trough will sharpen on Tuesday as short wave energy
dives into the Ohio Valley and moves into New England late Tuesday
night. An associated cold front will advance toward the Appalachians
early Tuesday and move across the Carolinas reaching the coast by
Wednesday morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the front including a continuation of convection
from the Monday night. NWP guidance has trended cooler for
maxes Tuesday likely reflecting widespread clouds and precipitation.
Will adjust maxes down to the mid 80s with lows tuesday night in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Not surprisingly the front stalls near or just south of our region
on Wednesday. Given the upper flow which is more westerly than
northwesterly and the time of year, not terribly confident
that the front will clear all of central NC so will include
slight chance pops for mainly afternoon/evening convection on
Wednesday with the greatest probabilities across the south and
east. Highs will be modulated by the location of the front and the
push of cooler air behind it. Will go with highs in the mid 80s
northeast to around 90 across the south with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

The eastern U.S. trough sharpens a bit on Thursday and Friday with
the trough axis setting up or retrograding west of the Appalachians.
The lingering cold front will persist before eventually washing
out with a low level southerly flow developing. This will result in
above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection on
Thursday and Friday. Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid
60s to around 70. -blaes

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Lingering MVFR stratus from KINT to KRWI is begging to show signs
breaking out on visible imagery, which will result in a sct/bkn
stratocu field between 2000 and 300t ft this afternoon. KFAY is
just south of the MVFR ceilings, but a period of MVFR may be
possible there too through 23z. A period of VFR should develop
this evening before low clouds redevelop after midnight, likely
being shunted south and west toward KINT/KGSO/KFAY as drier air
spreads in from the northeast. Forecast models vary widely in the
coverage and level of the stratus, so confidence isn`t terribly
high, but given the amount of low-level moisture observed today,
prefer the more pessimistic guidance.

Drier air is expected areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR
conditions by mid-morning at the latest.

Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Monday night through
Tuesday when the next frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KDS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251930
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Northeast coast through the
Mid- Atlantic for the remainder of the weekend. Another cold front
will approach the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
as of 330 PM Saturday...

The surface cold front and leading edge of this morning`s stratus
has settled near the NC/SC border, where scattered storms
developed, mainly south of FAY and CTZ within 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE. These storms are drifting off to the southeast, so the
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain may only see an isolated
cell or two the remainder of the afternoon. Further north, the
stratus has been breaking pretty rapidly since noon, and a few
very light showers are possible in the Piedmont as the stratocu
field grows with brief heating.

Given the amount of low-level moisture lingering across the area
this afternoon, some low clouds should redevelop tonight, likely
shunted off the south and west as drier air noted over the
Delmarva spreads in. The NAM and ECMWF show more in the way of
stratus across the southern and western Piedmont, which is
preferred at the moment. The drier air will allow for better
cooling under less cloud cover, yielding lows in the lower 60s
northeast to near 70 southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

A shot of drier and marginally cooler air from the northeast and
weak height rises aloft will lead to a more stable airmass over
central NC on Sunday. Forecast 1000-850mb thicknesses around 1400m
Sunday morning suggest highs much closer to normal, maybe a touch
below given east-northeasterly flow and mixing heights shy of
850mb. highs 83-88 northeast to southwest.

Stratus is possible again Sunday night as return starts to kick
in around the eastward shifting ridge axis. Cloud cover should nor
be widespread Monday morning, confined primarily to the western
Piedmont based on deterministic guidance. Lows 63-69.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The Great Lakes trough will sharpen on Tuesday as short wave energy
dives into the Ohio Valley and moves into New England late Tuesday
night. An associated cold front will advance toward the Appalachians
early Tuesday and move across the Carolinas reaching the coast by
Wednesday morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the front including a continuation of convection
from the Monday night. NWP guidance has trended cooler for
maxes Tuesday likely reflecting widespread clouds and precipitation.
Will adjust maxes down to the mid 80s with lows tuesday night in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Not surprisingly the front stalls near or just south of our region
on Wednesday. Given the upper flow which is more westerly than
northwesterly and the time of year, not terribly confident
that the front will clear all of central NC so will include
slight chance pops for mainly afternoon/evening convection on
Wednesday with the greatest probabilities across the south and
east. Highs will be modulated by the location of the front and the
push of cooler air behind it. Will go with highs in the mid 80s
northeast to around 90 across the south with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

The eastern U.S. trough sharpens a bit on Thursday and Friday with
the trough axis setting up or retrograding west of the Appalachians.
The lingering cold front will persist before eventually washing
out with a low level southerly flow developing. This will result in
above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection on
Thursday and Friday. Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid
60s to around 70. -blaes

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Lingering MVFR stratus from KINT to KRWI is begging to show signs
breaking out on visible imagery, which will result in a sct/bkn
stratocu field between 2000 and 300t ft this afternoon. KFAY is
just south of the MVFR ceilings, but a period of MVFR may be
possible there too through 23z. A period of VFR should develop
this evening before low clouds redevelop after midnight, likely
being shunted south and west toward KINT/KGSO/KFAY as drier air
spreads in from the northeast. Forecast models vary widely in the
coverage and level of the stratus, so confidence isn`t terribly
high, but given the amount of low-level moisture observed today,
prefer the more pessimistic guidance.

Drier air is expected areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR
conditions by mid-morning at the latest.

Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Monday night through
Tuesday when the next frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KDS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251910
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north this tonight and
Sunday. A cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week
and linger in the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving
across it through late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sat...Only a small area of far western eastern NC
will continue to have a threat for scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the remainder of today and possibly early this
evening. Drier air is then forecast to move into the area
overnight.

After sunset any lingering precipitation will end with loss of
heating. Low level moisture spreading under the nocturnal
inversion will likely lead to the develop of widespread low clouds
late tonight. Overnight lows will be 65 to 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sat...High pressure will build over the area from the
north with NE flow prevailing. Expect low clouds in the morning
then afternoon sunshine. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 pm Sat...not much change to the forecast for this
update. gollowed a consensus blend of wpc and other models...which
leaned towards the ecmwf for the latter part of the forecast. A ridge
of high pressure extending down the east coast into the Carolinas
Sunday Night into Monday will dissipate by Monday evening. A cold
front to the NW Tuesday will pass through Tuesday evening and
become stationary along or just off the southern coast Wednesday
through Saturday. Dry conditions Sunday Night through Monday
Evening. Chance PoPs for the rest of the period with the front
being the main focus for convection in a warm, humid and unstable
airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 100 PM Sat...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this
evening outside isolated afternoon/early evening showers and
thunderstorms. Guidance continues to indicate IFR ceilings
developing after 06Z tonight and persisting to around 15Z Sunday
in the moist NE low level flow established across the area.
Expecting a return to vfr conditions by 18Z Sunday afternoon.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 310 pm Sat...VFR with dry weather Sunday into Monday. Sub-
VFR in scattered convection Tuesday through Thursday as a cold
front affects the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 300 PM Sat...The cold front will move south of the waters by
early evening with NE flow 10 to 20 kt expected this evening
subsiding to 10 to 15 kt late tonight and Sunday as high pressure
builds over the waters. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft through Sunday with
some 5 ft seas expected over the outer southern and central waters
this evening.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 310 pm Sat...High pressure east of the New England coast
extending down the east coast Sunday Night into Monday will
dissipate, with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into
Wednesday. As a result, the NE flow Sunday will gradually veer to
SE Monday and SW Tuesday. A cold front will enter the area from
the NW late Tuesday night and become stationary near to just off
the south coast on Wednesday. not much confidence on exactly where
front will set up so wind direction forecast confidence is low.
regardless, pressure gradient through the period will not be very
tight, with winds forecast no higher than 5-15 knots and seas 2-4
feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...JME/RSB
MARINE...JME/RSB




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to settle south near the NC and SC
border this afternoon. Behind the front, high pressure will extend
from the Northeast coast through the Mid- Atlantic for the
remainder of the weekend. Another cold front will approach the
area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

The surface cold front was evident on radar just south of US 64 at
12z and has since settled into the southern CWA, with increasing
post frontal stratus that is about 1500ft thick per PIREPs.  The
southward progression of the stratus will stop as the front slows
this morning and diurnal heating acts on a relatively dry 925-850mb
airmass analyzed over the southern Piedmont/Coastal Plain.  This dry
air may actually help to delay and hinder destablization, with more
appreciable MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg confined to areas area of KFAY
this afternoon given dewpoints around 70 and peak heating in the
lower 90s.  Forcing is weak and limited to low-level convergence,
with just some pulse storms expected in weak deep shear.  High will
range from the lower 90s south to low/mid 80s north where stratus
will hold until early afternoon and some breaks can eventually (at
least temporarily) erode the low-level moisture. -BLS

Activity should push south of the area with the front this
evening,with some redevelopment of stratus possible as moisture
lingers.  Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

For Sunday expect a much drier and cooler day than we have seen
recently with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid
60s across much of the area. A gentle northeasterly wind and
scattered clouds during the afternoon should round out a very nice
end to the weekend. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The upper air pattern to start the work week features weak ridging
across the Southeast along with an eastward advancing upper
level trough across the Great Lakes. The departing surface high
pressure center moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England coast
will allow deep moisture to quickly return to the area from the
west with PW values increasing to more than 2 inches by late Monday
afternoon. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that develop across western NC Monday afternoon
and push east Monday night. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 with lows near 70. -blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The Great Lakes trough will sharpen on Tuesday as short wave energy
dives into the Ohio Valley and moves into New England late Tuesday
night. An associated cold front will advance toward the Appalachians
early Tuesday and move across the Carolinas reaching the coast by
Wednesday morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the front including a continuation of convection
from the Monday night. NWP guidance has trended cooler for
maxes Tuesday likely reflecting widespread clouds and precipitation.
Will adjust maxes down to the mid 80s with lows tuesday night in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Not surprisingly the front stalls near or just south of our region
on Wednesday. Given the upper flow which is more westerly than
northwesterly and the time of year, not terribly confident
that the front will clear all of central NC so will include
slight chance pops for mainly afternoon/evening convection on
Wednesday with the greatest probabilities across the south and
east. Highs will be modulated by the location of the front and the
push of cooler air behind it. Will go with highs in the mid 80s
northeast to around 90 across the south with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

The eastern U.S. trough sharpens a bit on Thursday and Friday with
the trough axis setting up or retrograding west of the Appalachians.
The lingering cold front will persist before eventually washing
out with a low level southerly flow developing. This will result in
above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection on
Thursday and Friday. Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid
60s to around 70. -blaes

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Lingering MVFR stratus from KINT to KRWI is begging to show signs
breaking out on visible imagery, which will result in a sct/bkn
stratocu field between 2000 and 300t ft this afternoon. KFAY is
just south of the MVFR ceilings, but a period of MVFR may be
possible there too through 23z. A period of VFR should develop
this evening before low clouds redevelop after midnight, likely
being shunted south and west toward KINT/KGSO/KFAY as drier air
spreads in from the northeast. Forecast models vary widely in the
coverage and level of the stratus, so confidence isn`t terribly
high, but given the amount of low-level moisture observed today,
prefer the more pessimistic guidance.

Drier air is expected areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR
conditions by mid-morning at the latest.

Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Monday night through
Tuesday when the next frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KDS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to settle south near the NC and SC
border this afternoon. Behind the front, high pressure will extend
from the Northeast coast through the Mid- Atlantic for the
remainder of the weekend. Another cold front will approach the
area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

The surface cold front was evident on radar just south of US 64 at
12z and has since settled into the southern CWA, with increasing
post frontal stratus that is about 1500ft thick per PIREPs.  The
southward progression of the stratus will stop as the front slows
this morning and diurnal heating acts on a relatively dry 925-850mb
airmass analyzed over the southern Piedmont/Coastal Plain.  This dry
air may actually help to delay and hinder destablization, with more
appreciable MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg confined to areas area of KFAY
this afternoon given dewpoints around 70 and peak heating in the
lower 90s.  Forcing is weak and limited to low-level convergence,
with just some pulse storms expected in weak deep shear.  High will
range from the lower 90s south to low/mid 80s north where stratus
will hold until early afternoon and some breaks can eventually (at
least temporarily) erode the low-level moisture. -BLS

Activity should push south of the area with the front this
evening,with some redevelopment of stratus possible as moisture
lingers.  Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

For Sunday expect a much drier and cooler day than we have seen
recently with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid
60s across much of the area. A gentle northeasterly wind and
scattered clouds during the afternoon should round out a very nice
end to the weekend. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The upper air pattern to start the work week features weak ridging
across the Southeast along with an eastward advancing upper
level trough across the Great Lakes. The departing surface high
pressure center moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England coast
will allow deep moisture to quickly return to the area from the
west with PW values increasing to more than 2 inches by late Monday
afternoon. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that develop across western NC Monday afternoon
and push east Monday night. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 with lows near 70. -blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The Great Lakes trough will sharpen on Tuesday as short wave energy
dives into the Ohio Valley and moves into New England late Tuesday
night. An associated cold front will advance toward the Appalachians
early Tuesday and move across the Carolinas reaching the coast by
Wednesday morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the front including a continuation of convection
from the Monday night. NWP guidance has trended cooler for
maxes Tuesday likely reflecting widespread clouds and precipitation.
Will adjust maxes down to the mid 80s with lows tuesday night in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Not surprisingly the front stalls near or just south of our region
on Wednesday. Given the upper flow which is more westerly than
northwesterly and the time of year, not terribly confident
that the front will clear all of central NC so will include
slight chance pops for mainly afternoon/evening convection on
Wednesday with the greatest probabilities across the south and
east. Highs will be modulated by the location of the front and the
push of cooler air behind it. Will go with highs in the mid 80s
northeast to around 90 across the south with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

The eastern U.S. trough sharpens a bit on Thursday and Friday with
the trough axis setting up or retrograding west of the Appalachians.
The lingering cold front will persist before eventually washing
out with a low level southerly flow developing. This will result in
above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection on
Thursday and Friday. Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid
60s to around 70. -blaes

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Lingering MVFR stratus from KINT to KRWI is begging to show signs
breaking out on visible imagery, which will result in a sct/bkn
stratocu field between 2000 and 300t ft this afternoon. KFAY is
just south of the MVFR ceilings, but a period of MVFR may be
possible there too through 23z. A period of VFR should develop
this evening before low clouds redevelop after midnight, likely
being shunted south and west toward KINT/KGSO/KFAY as drier air
spreads in from the northeast. Forecast models vary widely in the
coverage and level of the stratus, so confidence isn`t terribly
high, but given the amount of low-level moisture observed today,
prefer the more pessimistic guidance.

Drier air is expected areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR
conditions by mid-morning at the latest.

Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Monday night through
Tuesday when the next frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KDS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to settle south near the NC and SC
border this afternoon. Behind the front, high pressure will extend
from the Northeast coast through the Mid- Atlantic for the
remainder of the weekend. Another cold front will approach the
area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

The surface cold front was evident on radar just south of US 64 at
12z and has since settled into the southern CWA, with increasing
post frontal stratus that is about 1500ft thick per PIREPs.  The
southward progression of the stratus will stop as the front slows
this morning and diurnal heating acts on a relatively dry 925-850mb
airmass analyzed over the southern Piedmont/Coastal Plain.  This dry
air may actually help to delay and hinder destablization, with more
appreciable MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg confined to areas area of KFAY
this afternoon given dewpoints around 70 and peak heating in the
lower 90s.  Forcing is weak and limited to low-level convergence,
with just some pulse storms expected in weak deep shear.  High will
range from the lower 90s south to low/mid 80s north where stratus
will hold until early afternoon and some breaks can eventually (at
least temporarily) erode the low-level moisture. -BLS

Activity should push south of the area with the front this
evening,with some redevelopment of stratus possible as moisture
lingers.  Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

For Sunday expect a much drier and cooler day than we have seen
recently with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid
60s across much of the area. A gentle northeasterly wind and
scattered clouds during the afternoon should round out a very nice
end to the weekend. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The upper air pattern to start the work week features weak ridging
across the Southeast along with an eastward advancing upper
level trough across the Great Lakes. The departing surface high
pressure center moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England coast
will allow deep moisture to quickly return to the area from the
west with PW values increasing to more than 2 inches by late Monday
afternoon. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that develop across western NC Monday afternoon
and push east Monday night. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 with lows near 70. -blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The Great Lakes trough will sharpen on Tuesday as short wave energy
dives into the Ohio Valley and moves into New England late Tuesday
night. An associated cold front will advance toward the Appalachians
early Tuesday and move across the Carolinas reaching the coast by
Wednesday morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the front including a continuation of convection
from the Monday night. NWP guidance has trended cooler for
maxes Tuesday likely reflecting widespread clouds and precipitation.
Will adjust maxes down to the mid 80s with lows tuesday night in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Not surprisingly the front stalls near or just south of our region
on Wednesday. Given the upper flow which is more westerly than
northwesterly and the time of year, not terribly confident
that the front will clear all of central NC so will include
slight chance pops for mainly afternoon/evening convection on
Wednesday with the greatest probabilities across the south and
east. Highs will be modulated by the location of the front and the
push of cooler air behind it. Will go with highs in the mid 80s
northeast to around 90 across the south with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

The eastern U.S. trough sharpens a bit on Thursday and Friday with
the trough axis setting up or retrograding west of the Appalachians.
The lingering cold front will persist before eventually washing
out with a low level southerly flow developing. This will result in
above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection on
Thursday and Friday. Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid
60s to around 70. -blaes

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Lingering MVFR stratus from KINT to KRWI is begging to show signs
breaking out on visible imagery, which will result in a sct/bkn
stratocu field between 2000 and 300t ft this afternoon. KFAY is
just south of the MVFR ceilings, but a period of MVFR may be
possible there too through 23z. A period of VFR should develop
this evening before low clouds redevelop after midnight, likely
being shunted south and west toward KINT/KGSO/KFAY as drier air
spreads in from the northeast. Forecast models vary widely in the
coverage and level of the stratus, so confidence isn`t terribly
high, but given the amount of low-level moisture observed today,
prefer the more pessimistic guidance.

Drier air is expected areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR
conditions by mid-morning at the latest.

Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Monday night through
Tuesday when the next frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KDS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to settle south near the NC and SC
border this afternoon. Behind the front, high pressure will extend
from the Northeast coast through the Mid- Atlantic for the
remainder of the weekend. Another cold front will approach the
area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

The surface cold front was evident on radar just south of US 64 at
12z and has since settled into the southern CWA, with increasing
post frontal stratus that is about 1500ft thick per PIREPs.  The
southward progression of the stratus will stop as the front slows
this morning and diurnal heating acts on a relatively dry 925-850mb
airmass analyzed over the southern Piedmont/Coastal Plain.  This dry
air may actually help to delay and hinder destablization, with more
appreciable MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg confined to areas area of KFAY
this afternoon given dewpoints around 70 and peak heating in the
lower 90s.  Forcing is weak and limited to low-level convergence,
with just some pulse storms expected in weak deep shear.  High will
range from the lower 90s south to low/mid 80s north where stratus
will hold until early afternoon and some breaks can eventually (at
least temporarily) erode the low-level moisture. -BLS

Activity should push south of the area with the front this
evening,with some redevelopment of stratus possible as moisture
lingers.  Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

For Sunday expect a much drier and cooler day than we have seen
recently with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid
60s across much of the area. A gentle northeasterly wind and
scattered clouds during the afternoon should round out a very nice
end to the weekend. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The upper air pattern to start the work week features weak ridging
across the Southeast along with an eastward advancing upper
level trough across the Great Lakes. The departing surface high
pressure center moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England coast
will allow deep moisture to quickly return to the area from the
west with PW values increasing to more than 2 inches by late Monday
afternoon. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that develop across western NC Monday afternoon
and push east Monday night. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 with lows near 70. -blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The Great Lakes trough will sharpen on Tuesday as short wave energy
dives into the Ohio Valley and moves into New England late Tuesday
night. An associated cold front will advance toward the Appalachians
early Tuesday and move across the Carolinas reaching the coast by
Wednesday morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the front including a continuation of convection
from the Monday night. NWP guidance has trended cooler for
maxes Tuesday likely reflecting widespread clouds and precipitation.
Will adjust maxes down to the mid 80s with lows tuesday night in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Not surprisingly the front stalls near or just south of our region
on Wednesday. Given the upper flow which is more westerly than
northwesterly and the time of year, not terribly confident
that the front will clear all of central NC so will include
slight chance pops for mainly afternoon/evening convection on
Wednesday with the greatest probabilities across the south and
east. Highs will be modulated by the location of the front and the
push of cooler air behind it. Will go with highs in the mid 80s
northeast to around 90 across the south with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

The eastern U.S. trough sharpens a bit on Thursday and Friday with
the trough axis setting up or retrograding west of the Appalachians.
The lingering cold front will persist before eventually washing
out with a low level southerly flow developing. This will result in
above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection on
Thursday and Friday. Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid
60s to around 70. -blaes

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Lingering MVFR stratus from KINT to KRWI is begging to show signs
breaking out on visible imagery, which will result in a sct/bkn
stratocu field between 2000 and 300t ft this afternoon. KFAY is
just south of the MVFR ceilings, but a period of MVFR may be
possible there too through 23z. A period of VFR should develop
this evening before low clouds redevelop after midnight, likely
being shunted south and west toward KINT/KGSO/KFAY as drier air
spreads in from the northeast. Forecast models vary widely in the
coverage and level of the stratus, so confidence isn`t terribly
high, but given the amount of low-level moisture observed today,
prefer the more pessimistic guidance.

Drier air is expected areawide on Sunday, resulting in VFR
conditions by mid-morning at the latest.

Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Monday night through
Tuesday when the next frontal system moves through the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KDS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 251743
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
140 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but pivotal frontal boundary will dip slowly southward
today, helping to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build in behind the front tonight with slight
drying into Sunday. An uptick in thunderstorms will return Tuesday
and Wednesday as a front crosses the coast. A drying trend will
follow late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...No significant modifications were made
to the isolated to scattered convection forecast for the afternoon
to early evening although development and cell sustainability has
be under-whelming so far. Good heating over SC and a boundary in
proximity should provide a more conducive environment for TSTMS
through peak heating. The previous morning discussion follows.

Frontal boundary being revealed in radar returns and stratus
trends, though shallow as vad wind profile off KLTX indicating <
1KFT. Density gradients aloft associated with impulses noted in
vapor loops were helping to trip off isolated convection this
morning, though meager surface heating and scant low-level CAPE
values were keeping intensity levels low. PWAT values blended from
an array of space sensors indicate the very deepest of moisture
has edged offshore curling inland across very southern SC and GA.
Heating will help ignite SHRA and TSTMS today and meso-scale
boundaries should give impetus for development in addition to the
frontal boundary itself. Overall the favored/forecasted QPF
distribution will be more weighted along and near the coast given
not only greater vapor content, but low- level wind-speed
convergence resulting from NE winds traveling from sea to land. No
`significant` changes to the forecast at this time but adjustments
will likely be needed to sky, temps, pops, and winds given the
smaller scale nuances that will muck-up and complicate any notion
of a clear-cut forecast. The SPC maintains a marginal risk of
severe storms today with a 5% chance of wind damage or large hail.
The previous forecaster discussion follows.

The mid-level trof line pushes off the east coast early this
morning, resulting in flow aloft becoming nw. The mid-level
ridging will amplify this period, with the upper ridge axis
extending from the central Gulf coast states to the NE States. Not
your normal upper ridging orientation but this process allows the
sfc cold front to continue to drop se reaching the coast later
today...and off the coast and further south of the FA tonight. a
1025 mb High centered over the NE States will ridge southwest
across the Carolinas later tonight. The cold front, leftover
outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing to atleast initiate convection. Instability
already present will increase-some once the days insolation
commences. Some of this activity although isolated is already
ongoing. As we go thru the day, the primary activity will switch
from all areas to just along the coast by the end of daylight
hours. Can not rule out an isolated strong or even severe tstorm
today, however the FA will NOT see a repeat of Friday. Will
highlight the isolated severe in the Hazardous WX Outlook (HWO).
The drier and the slight cooler air will slowly infiltrate the FA
late today thru tonight. Will stay close to a model mos consensus
for max temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even the coastal
sites will see max temps flirt with the 90 degree level. The heat
index values will push to around 100 degrees across the sw
portions of the ILM CWA and will highlight in the HWO. Tonights
mins in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The upper ridging from the Near Term Period
will persist Sunday into early Monday. The mid-level ridging is
progged to break down late Monday thru Monday Night in response to a
potent closed low within the main band of westerlies aloft.
It is progged to move eastward along or in the vicinity of the U.S.
and Canada border reaching the Great Lakes during Monday.
This closed low is progged by the models to open up and become
nearly a full latitude mid-level trof by Tuesday morning. The
Southeast U.s. becomes under the influence of this upper trof with
heights decreasing. For Sunday and for the most part daylight Monday
will be pcpn free. With sfc ridging and flow from this high across
the fa, temps both days and nights will actually hover around the
normal values for this time of the year. With Upper 80s to around 90
for maxes and upper 60s to around 70 for mins. For Monday night, the
approach of a sfc cold front and also the mid-level trof both from
the west will likely result with an increase of pops especially
during the pre-dawn Tue hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Mid level pattern will be undergoing a
transition to broad 5h troughing over the eastern CONUS as the
period begins. On Tue, northwest flow aloft, as the 5h ridge
retreats west, will move afternoon Piedmont trough convection to
the coast. Continued northwest flow Wed helps push a cold front
into the region, increasing precip chances midweek. Front ends up
stalled in the area Wed night and Thu as the 5h trough flattens
and the mid level push weakens. Abundant moisture along with
diurnal instability in the presence of the boundary will maintain
elevated precip chances for Thu. At this point hard to pick a
favored location, something which will depend on the location of
the stalled surface boundary. Shortwave trough dropping into the
TN Valley late Thu into Fri pulls the front back north, setting
the stage for widespread diurnal convection as the period ends.
Temperatures will be near climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...Thunderstorms breaking out now north of frontal boundary
and should affect LBT with bouts of MVFR to possibly short-lived IFR.
As these storms gradually drop south they will do the same at
remaining terminals, KFLO shortly and SC airports closer to 19 or
20Z. Coverage and intensity will rapidly wane towards sunset and
some overnight MVFR ceilings will develop. Some guidance hinting at
brief IFR ceilings. Soon after sunrise Sunday conditions improve to
VFR where they shall remain all day.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR conditions
from convection today and again Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...The overall trend for this period will
be the diminishing wind speeds. A cold front will slowly drop sse
and should exit the southernmost ILM waters by early to mid
evening. Models lately have been too aggressive in quickly
dropping these fronts to, thru, and across the area waters. And as
a result, I backed off by 3 to 6 hrs and thus the mid evening
time- line. There really is no big pump of drier air or cooler air
behind this cfp. The models indicate a tightened gradient after
the cfp during Sunday but is only temporary. In all, should see
wind speeds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt thru today,
dropping back to around 10 kt tonight. Significant seas will run 2
to 4 ft and mainly be governed by the wind driven variety at 4 to
6 second periods.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The 1025 mb High centered over the NE states
on Sunday, will ridge sw across the Carolinas on Sunday.
a brief mini surge will occur on Sunday under ne to ene winds at 10
to around 15 kt. This due to a temporary tightening of the sfc pg
not a major influx of cooler air or drier air. The High will get
kicked off the coast and offshore from the NE states on Monday. Its
sfc ridge axis across the area Sunday will dissipate as the High
itself pushes east of the waters early Monday. A cold front will
make its approach from the west Monday Night. Winds will generally
veer from the east late Sunday night or early Monday to the s or sw
during Monday night. The sfc pg will become relaxed with resulting
wind speeds around 10 kt at best.

Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft Sunday, then slowly subside to
around 2 ft by late Monday and Monday night. Wind driven waves at 4
to 5 second periods will dominate on Sunday. For sunday night thru
Monday night, an easterly ground swell at 8 second periods will
become the dominant player for significant seas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...High pressure off the East Coast will
maintain southwest flow over the waters Tue into Wed. A cold front
will approach from the northwest but end up stalling just west of
the waters Wed. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft during the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 251743
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
140 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but pivotal frontal boundary will dip slowly southward
today, helping to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build in behind the front tonight with slight
drying into Sunday. An uptick in thunderstorms will return Tuesday
and Wednesday as a front crosses the coast. A drying trend will
follow late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...No significant modifications were made
to the isolated to scattered convection forecast for the afternoon
to early evening although development and cell sustainability has
be under-whelming so far. Good heating over SC and a boundary in
proximity should provide a more conducive environment for TSTMS
through peak heating. The previous morning discussion follows.

Frontal boundary being revealed in radar returns and stratus
trends, though shallow as vad wind profile off KLTX indicating <
1KFT. Density gradients aloft associated with impulses noted in
vapor loops were helping to trip off isolated convection this
morning, though meager surface heating and scant low-level CAPE
values were keeping intensity levels low. PWAT values blended from
an array of space sensors indicate the very deepest of moisture
has edged offshore curling inland across very southern SC and GA.
Heating will help ignite SHRA and TSTMS today and meso-scale
boundaries should give impetus for development in addition to the
frontal boundary itself. Overall the favored/forecasted QPF
distribution will be more weighted along and near the coast given
not only greater vapor content, but low- level wind-speed
convergence resulting from NE winds traveling from sea to land. No
`significant` changes to the forecast at this time but adjustments
will likely be needed to sky, temps, pops, and winds given the
smaller scale nuances that will muck-up and complicate any notion
of a clear-cut forecast. The SPC maintains a marginal risk of
severe storms today with a 5% chance of wind damage or large hail.
The previous forecaster discussion follows.

The mid-level trof line pushes off the east coast early this
morning, resulting in flow aloft becoming nw. The mid-level
ridging will amplify this period, with the upper ridge axis
extending from the central Gulf coast states to the NE States. Not
your normal upper ridging orientation but this process allows the
sfc cold front to continue to drop se reaching the coast later
today...and off the coast and further south of the FA tonight. a
1025 mb High centered over the NE States will ridge southwest
across the Carolinas later tonight. The cold front, leftover
outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing to atleast initiate convection. Instability
already present will increase-some once the days insolation
commences. Some of this activity although isolated is already
ongoing. As we go thru the day, the primary activity will switch
from all areas to just along the coast by the end of daylight
hours. Can not rule out an isolated strong or even severe tstorm
today, however the FA will NOT see a repeat of Friday. Will
highlight the isolated severe in the Hazardous WX Outlook (HWO).
The drier and the slight cooler air will slowly infiltrate the FA
late today thru tonight. Will stay close to a model mos consensus
for max temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even the coastal
sites will see max temps flirt with the 90 degree level. The heat
index values will push to around 100 degrees across the sw
portions of the ILM CWA and will highlight in the HWO. Tonights
mins in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The upper ridging from the Near Term Period
will persist Sunday into early Monday. The mid-level ridging is
progged to break down late Monday thru Monday Night in response to a
potent closed low within the main band of westerlies aloft.
It is progged to move eastward along or in the vicinity of the U.S.
and Canada border reaching the Great Lakes during Monday.
This closed low is progged by the models to open up and become
nearly a full latitude mid-level trof by Tuesday morning. The
Southeast U.s. becomes under the influence of this upper trof with
heights decreasing. For Sunday and for the most part daylight Monday
will be pcpn free. With sfc ridging and flow from this high across
the fa, temps both days and nights will actually hover around the
normal values for this time of the year. With Upper 80s to around 90
for maxes and upper 60s to around 70 for mins. For Monday night, the
approach of a sfc cold front and also the mid-level trof both from
the west will likely result with an increase of pops especially
during the pre-dawn Tue hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Mid level pattern will be undergoing a
transition to broad 5h troughing over the eastern CONUS as the
period begins. On Tue, northwest flow aloft, as the 5h ridge
retreats west, will move afternoon Piedmont trough convection to
the coast. Continued northwest flow Wed helps push a cold front
into the region, increasing precip chances midweek. Front ends up
stalled in the area Wed night and Thu as the 5h trough flattens
and the mid level push weakens. Abundant moisture along with
diurnal instability in the presence of the boundary will maintain
elevated precip chances for Thu. At this point hard to pick a
favored location, something which will depend on the location of
the stalled surface boundary. Shortwave trough dropping into the
TN Valley late Thu into Fri pulls the front back north, setting
the stage for widespread diurnal convection as the period ends.
Temperatures will be near climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...Thunderstorms breaking out now north of frontal boundary
and should affect LBT with bouts of MVFR to possibly short-lived IFR.
As these storms gradually drop south they will do the same at
remaining terminals, KFLO shortly and SC airports closer to 19 or
20Z. Coverage and intensity will rapidly wane towards sunset and
some overnight MVFR ceilings will develop. Some guidance hinting at
brief IFR ceilings. Soon after sunrise Sunday conditions improve to
VFR where they shall remain all day.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR conditions
from convection today and again Tue into Wed. And possible mvfr from
fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...The overall trend for this period will
be the diminishing wind speeds. A cold front will slowly drop sse
and should exit the southernmost ILM waters by early to mid
evening. Models lately have been too aggressive in quickly
dropping these fronts to, thru, and across the area waters. And as
a result, I backed off by 3 to 6 hrs and thus the mid evening
time- line. There really is no big pump of drier air or cooler air
behind this cfp. The models indicate a tightened gradient after
the cfp during Sunday but is only temporary. In all, should see
wind speeds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt thru today,
dropping back to around 10 kt tonight. Significant seas will run 2
to 4 ft and mainly be governed by the wind driven variety at 4 to
6 second periods.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The 1025 mb High centered over the NE states
on Sunday, will ridge sw across the Carolinas on Sunday.
a brief mini surge will occur on Sunday under ne to ene winds at 10
to around 15 kt. This due to a temporary tightening of the sfc pg
not a major influx of cooler air or drier air. The High will get
kicked off the coast and offshore from the NE states on Monday. Its
sfc ridge axis across the area Sunday will dissipate as the High
itself pushes east of the waters early Monday. A cold front will
make its approach from the west Monday Night. Winds will generally
veer from the east late Sunday night or early Monday to the s or sw
during Monday night. The sfc pg will become relaxed with resulting
wind speeds around 10 kt at best.

Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft Sunday, then slowly subside to
around 2 ft by late Monday and Monday night. Wind driven waves at 4
to 5 second periods will dominate on Sunday. For sunday night thru
Monday night, an easterly ground swell at 8 second periods will
become the dominant player for significant seas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...High pressure off the East Coast will
maintain southwest flow over the waters Tue into Wed. A cold front
will approach from the northwest but end up stalling just west of
the waters Wed. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft during the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area this afternoon. High
pressure will build in from the north this weekend. Another cold
front will slowly move into the region by mid week and linger in
the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving across it through
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 100 PM Sat...The cold front looks like it is moving inland
with the sea breeze as expected vicinity of the Crystal Coast and
will continue inland for the remainder of the afternoon. This
region (southern third of the region) will become the focus for
scattered afternoon/early evening shower and thunderstorm activity
with only isolated cells expected to the north/east of this
region. Several convective outflows were also converging on this
area which should act to enhance lift. There is much less shear
observed across the area today so not expecting severe
thunderstorms but L.I.`s drop to -3 to -5 and PW values will be
AOA 1.75" so torrential downpours and gusty winds are expected in
the strongest storms. It is noted that the SPC Marginal Risk for
Severe storms continue into Onslow and Duplin counties but it
appears the greatest risk for severe will be just south of our
area today.

It will be another warm day today though not as warm as last few
days. Highs should reach the mid/upr 80s south and west to the 70s
OBX where NE winds off the ocean bring cooling temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Front will be south of the area tonight with any
ISO/SCT precip moving offshore and away from the area by evening.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with a light NE breeze
and lower dewpoints making for pleasantly cooler temps with lows
in the low/mid 60s interior to upper 60s/near 70 beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 am Sat...Used a consensus blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF as both are in close agreement. Narrow ridge of high
pressure extending down the east coast into the Carolinas Sunday
into Monday will dissipate by Monday evening. A cold front to the
NW Tuesday will pass through Tuesday evening and become stationary
along or just off the southern coast Wednesday through Friday.
Little change to current forecast with dry conditions Sunday
through Monday. Chance PoPs for the rest of the period with the
front being the main focus for convection in a warm, humid and
unstable airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 100 PM Sat...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this
evening outside isolated afternoon/early evening showers and
thunderstorms. Guidance continues to indicate IFR ceilings
developing after 06Z tonight and persisting to around 15Z Sunday
in the moist NE low level flow established across the area.
Expecting a return to vfr conditions by 18Z Sunday afternoon.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 3 am Sat...VFR with dry weather Sunday into Monday. Sub-VFR
in scattered convection Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front
affects the area. Surface winds from the NE 5-10 knots Sunday, SE
around 5 knots Monday, SW around 5 knots Tuesday and S around 5
knots Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 100 PM Sat...Cold front will move southward through the
waters through the day today with winds becoming NE 10 to 20 kt
behind it. Seas will respond by building to 2 to 4 feet through
today and into tonight.

Long Term /Sun through Wed/
As of 3 am Sat...High pressure east of the New England coast extending
down the east coast Sunday into Monday will dissipate, with the
Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result, the
NE flow Sunday will gradually veer to SE Monday and SW Tuesday. A
cold front will enter the area from the NW late Tuesday night and
become stationary near to just off the south coast on Wednesday.
Winds will switch to N over generally north of Ocracoke Wednesday,
with waters to the south in an E to SE flow. Pressure gradient
through the period will not be very tight, with winds forecast no
higher than 5-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 251625
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1225 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but pivotal frontal boundary will dip slowly southward
today, helping to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build in behind the front tonight with slight
drying into Sunday. An uptick in thunderstorms will return Tuesday
and Wednesday as a front crosses the coast. A drying trend will
follow late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...No significant modifications were made
to the isolated to scattered convection forecast for the afternoon
to early evening although development and cell sustainability has
be under-whelming so far. Good heating over SC and a boundary in
proximity should provide a more conducive environment for TSTMS
through peak heating. The previous morning discussion follows.

Frontal boundary being revealed in radar returns and stratus
trends, though shallow as vad wind profile off KLTX indicating <
1KFT. Density gradients aloft associated with impulses noted in
vapor loops were helping to trip off isolated convection this
morning, though meager surface heating and scant low-level CAPE
values were keeping intensity levels low. PWAT values blended from
an array of space sensors indicate the very deepest of moisture
has edged offshore curling inland across very southern SC and GA.
Heating will help ignite SHRA and TSTMS today and meso-scale
boundaries should give impetus for development in addition to the
frontal boundary itself. Overall the favored/forecasted QPF
distribution will be more weighted along and near the coast given
not only greater vapor content, but low- level wind-speed
convergence resulting from NE winds traveling from sea to land. No
`significant` changes to the forecast at this time but adjustments
will likely be needed to sky, temps, pops, and winds given the
smaller scale nuances that will muck-up and complicate any notion
of a clear-cut forecast. The SPC maintains a marginal risk of
severe storms today with a 5% chance of wind damage or large hail.
The previous forecaster discussion follows.

The mid-level trof line pushes off the east coast early this
morning, resulting in flow aloft becoming nw. The mid-level
ridging will amplify this period, with the upper ridge axis
extending from the central Gulf coast states to the NE States. Not
your normal upper ridging orientation but this process allows the
sfc cold front to continue to drop se reaching the coast later
today...and off the coast and further south of the FA tonight. a
1025 mb High centered over the NE States will ridge southwest
across the Carolinas later tonight. The cold front, leftover
outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing to atleast initiate convection. Instability
already present will increase-some once the days insolation
commences. Some of this activity although isolated is already
ongoing. As we go thru the day, the primary activity will switch
from all areas to just along the coast by the end of daylight
hours. Can not rule out an isolated strong or even severe tstorm
today, however the FA will NOT see a repeat of Friday. Will
highlight the isolated severe in the Hazardous WX Outlook (HWO).
The drier and the slight cooler air will slowly infiltrate the FA
late today thru tonight. Will stay close to a model mos consensus
for max temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even the coastal
sites will see max temps flirt with the 90 degree level. The heat
index values will push to around 100 degrees across the sw
portions of the ILM CWA and will highlight in the HWO. Tonights
mins in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The upper ridging from the Near Term Period
will persist Sunday into early Monday. The mid-level ridging is
progged to break down late Monday thru Monday Night in response to a
potent closed low within the main band of westerlies aloft.
It is progged to move eastward along or in the vicinity of the U.S.
and Canada border reaching the Great Lakes during Monday.
This closed low is progged by the models to open up and become
nearly a full latitude mid-level trof by Tuesday morning. The
Southeast U.s. becomes under the influence of this upper trof with
heights decreasing. For Sunday and for the most part daylight Monday
will be pcpn free. With sfc ridging and flow from this high across
the fa, temps both days and nights will actually hover around the
normal values for this time of the year. With Upper 80s to around 90
for maxes and upper 60s to around 70 for mins. For Monday night, the
approach of a sfc cold front and also the mid-level trof both from
the west will likely result with an increase of pops especially
during the pre-dawn Tue hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Mid level pattern will be undergoing a
transition to broad 5h troughing over the eastern CONUS as the
period begins. On Tue, northwest flow aloft, as the 5h ridge
retreats west, will move afternoon Piedmont trough convection to
the coast. Continued northwest flow Wed helps push a cold front
into the region, increasing precip chances midweek. Front ends up
stalled in the area Wed night and Thu as the 5h trough flattens
and the mid level push weakens. Abundant moisture along with
diurnal instability in the presence of the boundary will maintain
elevated precip chances for Thu. At this point hard to pick a
favored location, something which will depend on the location of
the stalled surface boundary. Shortwave trough dropping into the
TN Valley late Thu into Fri pulls the front back north, setting
the stage for widespread diurnal convection as the period ends.
Temperatures will be near climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...Weak cold front has dropped S of KILM/KLBT as of 12Z.
The flow aloft is progged to sharpen or amplify later this morning
thru tonight which will push front through the remaining terminals
during the afternoon. Until then the proximity of the cold front,
leftover outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing for convection. Instability already present will
increase some once the days insolation commences. Some of this
convection, although isolated, is already ongoing SW of KLBT. Dry
in the mid levels should lessen coverage but will mention TEMPO
TS/MVFR in TAFs. Confidence is low as to exact timing. Although
IFR could occur temporarily, due to less coverage chances should be
low. All terminals should be clear of convection by early evening
with NE winds. There is currently model consensus for IFR stratus
ceilings developing by/after 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection today and again Tue into Wed. And
possible mvfr from fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...The overall trend for this period will
be the diminishing wind speeds. A cold front will slowly drop sse
and should exit the southernmost ILM waters by early to mid
evening. Models lately have been too aggressive in quickly
dropping these fronts to, thru, and across the area waters. And as
a result, I backed off by 3 to 6 hrs and thus the mid evening
time- line. There really is no big pump of drier air or cooler air
behind this cfp. The models indicate a tightened gradient after
the cfp during Sunday but is only temporary. In all, should see
wind speeds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt thru today,
dropping back to around 10 kt tonight. Significant seas will run 2
to 4 ft and mainly be governed by the wind driven variety at 4 to
6 second periods.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The 1025 mb High centered over the NE states
on Sunday, will ridge sw across the Carolinas on Sunday.
a brief mini surge will occur on Sunday under ne to ene winds at 10
to around 15 kt. This due to a temporary tightening of the sfc pg
not a major influx of cooler air or drier air. The High will get
kicked off the coast and offshore from the NE states on Monday. Its
sfc ridge axis across the area Sunday will dissipate as the High
itself pushes east of the waters early Monday. A cold front will
make its approach from the west Monday Night. Winds will generally
veer from the east late Sunday night or early Monday to the s or sw
during Monday night. The sfc pg will become relaxed with resulting
wind speeds around 10 kt at best.

Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft Sunday, then slowly subside to
around 2 ft by late Monday and Monday night. Wind driven waves at 4
to 5 second periods will dominate on Sunday. For sunday night thru
Monday night, an easterly ground swell at 8 second periods will
become the dominant player for significant seas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...High pressure off the East Coast will
maintain southwest flow over the waters Tue into Wed. A cold front
will approach from the northwest but end up stalling just west of
the waters Wed. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft during the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 251625
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1225 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but pivotal frontal boundary will dip slowly southward
today, helping to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build in behind the front tonight with slight
drying into Sunday. An uptick in thunderstorms will return Tuesday
and Wednesday as a front crosses the coast. A drying trend will
follow late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...No significant modifications were made
to the isolated to scattered convection forecast for the afternoon
to early evening although development and cell sustainability has
be under-whelming so far. Good heating over SC and a boundary in
proximity should provide a more conducive environment for TSTMS
through peak heating. The previous morning discussion follows.

Frontal boundary being revealed in radar returns and stratus
trends, though shallow as vad wind profile off KLTX indicating <
1KFT. Density gradients aloft associated with impulses noted in
vapor loops were helping to trip off isolated convection this
morning, though meager surface heating and scant low-level CAPE
values were keeping intensity levels low. PWAT values blended from
an array of space sensors indicate the very deepest of moisture
has edged offshore curling inland across very southern SC and GA.
Heating will help ignite SHRA and TSTMS today and meso-scale
boundaries should give impetus for development in addition to the
frontal boundary itself. Overall the favored/forecasted QPF
distribution will be more weighted along and near the coast given
not only greater vapor content, but low- level wind-speed
convergence resulting from NE winds traveling from sea to land. No
`significant` changes to the forecast at this time but adjustments
will likely be needed to sky, temps, pops, and winds given the
smaller scale nuances that will muck-up and complicate any notion
of a clear-cut forecast. The SPC maintains a marginal risk of
severe storms today with a 5% chance of wind damage or large hail.
The previous forecaster discussion follows.

The mid-level trof line pushes off the east coast early this
morning, resulting in flow aloft becoming nw. The mid-level
ridging will amplify this period, with the upper ridge axis
extending from the central Gulf coast states to the NE States. Not
your normal upper ridging orientation but this process allows the
sfc cold front to continue to drop se reaching the coast later
today...and off the coast and further south of the FA tonight. a
1025 mb High centered over the NE States will ridge southwest
across the Carolinas later tonight. The cold front, leftover
outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing to atleast initiate convection. Instability
already present will increase-some once the days insolation
commences. Some of this activity although isolated is already
ongoing. As we go thru the day, the primary activity will switch
from all areas to just along the coast by the end of daylight
hours. Can not rule out an isolated strong or even severe tstorm
today, however the FA will NOT see a repeat of Friday. Will
highlight the isolated severe in the Hazardous WX Outlook (HWO).
The drier and the slight cooler air will slowly infiltrate the FA
late today thru tonight. Will stay close to a model mos consensus
for max temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even the coastal
sites will see max temps flirt with the 90 degree level. The heat
index values will push to around 100 degrees across the sw
portions of the ILM CWA and will highlight in the HWO. Tonights
mins in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The upper ridging from the Near Term Period
will persist Sunday into early Monday. The mid-level ridging is
progged to break down late Monday thru Monday Night in response to a
potent closed low within the main band of westerlies aloft.
It is progged to move eastward along or in the vicinity of the U.S.
and Canada border reaching the Great Lakes during Monday.
This closed low is progged by the models to open up and become
nearly a full latitude mid-level trof by Tuesday morning. The
Southeast U.s. becomes under the influence of this upper trof with
heights decreasing. For Sunday and for the most part daylight Monday
will be pcpn free. With sfc ridging and flow from this high across
the fa, temps both days and nights will actually hover around the
normal values for this time of the year. With Upper 80s to around 90
for maxes and upper 60s to around 70 for mins. For Monday night, the
approach of a sfc cold front and also the mid-level trof both from
the west will likely result with an increase of pops especially
during the pre-dawn Tue hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Mid level pattern will be undergoing a
transition to broad 5h troughing over the eastern CONUS as the
period begins. On Tue, northwest flow aloft, as the 5h ridge
retreats west, will move afternoon Piedmont trough convection to
the coast. Continued northwest flow Wed helps push a cold front
into the region, increasing precip chances midweek. Front ends up
stalled in the area Wed night and Thu as the 5h trough flattens
and the mid level push weakens. Abundant moisture along with
diurnal instability in the presence of the boundary will maintain
elevated precip chances for Thu. At this point hard to pick a
favored location, something which will depend on the location of
the stalled surface boundary. Shortwave trough dropping into the
TN Valley late Thu into Fri pulls the front back north, setting
the stage for widespread diurnal convection as the period ends.
Temperatures will be near climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...Weak cold front has dropped S of KILM/KLBT as of 12Z.
The flow aloft is progged to sharpen or amplify later this morning
thru tonight which will push front through the remaining terminals
during the afternoon. Until then the proximity of the cold front,
leftover outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing for convection. Instability already present will
increase some once the days insolation commences. Some of this
convection, although isolated, is already ongoing SW of KLBT. Dry
in the mid levels should lessen coverage but will mention TEMPO
TS/MVFR in TAFs. Confidence is low as to exact timing. Although
IFR could occur temporarily, due to less coverage chances should be
low. All terminals should be clear of convection by early evening
with NE winds. There is currently model consensus for IFR stratus
ceilings developing by/after 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection today and again Tue into Wed. And
possible mvfr from fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...The overall trend for this period will
be the diminishing wind speeds. A cold front will slowly drop sse
and should exit the southernmost ILM waters by early to mid
evening. Models lately have been too aggressive in quickly
dropping these fronts to, thru, and across the area waters. And as
a result, I backed off by 3 to 6 hrs and thus the mid evening
time- line. There really is no big pump of drier air or cooler air
behind this cfp. The models indicate a tightened gradient after
the cfp during Sunday but is only temporary. In all, should see
wind speeds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt thru today,
dropping back to around 10 kt tonight. Significant seas will run 2
to 4 ft and mainly be governed by the wind driven variety at 4 to
6 second periods.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The 1025 mb High centered over the NE states
on Sunday, will ridge sw across the Carolinas on Sunday.
a brief mini surge will occur on Sunday under ne to ene winds at 10
to around 15 kt. This due to a temporary tightening of the sfc pg
not a major influx of cooler air or drier air. The High will get
kicked off the coast and offshore from the NE states on Monday. Its
sfc ridge axis across the area Sunday will dissipate as the High
itself pushes east of the waters early Monday. A cold front will
make its approach from the west Monday Night. Winds will generally
veer from the east late Sunday night or early Monday to the s or sw
during Monday night. The sfc pg will become relaxed with resulting
wind speeds around 10 kt at best.

Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft Sunday, then slowly subside to
around 2 ft by late Monday and Monday night. Wind driven waves at 4
to 5 second periods will dominate on Sunday. For sunday night thru
Monday night, an easterly ground swell at 8 second periods will
become the dominant player for significant seas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...High pressure off the East Coast will
maintain southwest flow over the waters Tue into Wed. A cold front
will approach from the northwest but end up stalling just west of
the waters Wed. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft during the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/MBB




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251448
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1045 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push southward through the Carolinas
this morning and afternoon. Behind the front, high pressure will
extend from the Northeast coast through the Mid-Atlantic for the
remainder of the weekend. Another cold front will approach the area
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

The surface cold front was evident on radar just south of US 64 at
12z and has since settled into the southern CWA, with increasing
post frontal stratus that is about 1500ft thick per PIREPs.  The
southward progression of the stratus will stop as the front slows
this morning and diurnal heating acts on a relatively dry 925-850mb
airmass analyzed over the southern Piedmont/Coastal Plain.  This dry
air may actually help to delay and hinder destablization, with more
appreciable MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg confined to areas area of KFAY
this afternoon given dewpoints around 70 and peak heating in the
lower 90s.  Forcing is weak and limited to low-level convergence,
with just some pulse storms expected in weak deep shear.  High will
range from the lower 90s south to low/mid 80s north where stratus
will hold until early afternoon and some breaks can eventually (at
least temporarily) erode the low-level moisture. -BLS

Activity should push south of the area with the front this
evening,with some redevelopment of stratus possible as moisture
lingers.  Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

For Sunday expect a much drier and cooler day than we have seen
recently with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid
60s across much of the area. A gentle northeasterly wind and
scattered clouds during the afternoon should round out a very nice
end to the weekend. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The upper air pattern to start the work week features weak ridging
across the Southeast along with an eastward advancing upper
level trough across the Great Lakes. The departing surface high
pressure center moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England coast
will allow deep moisture to quickly return to the area from the
west with PW values increasing to more than 2 inches by late Monday
afternoon. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that develop across western NC Monday afternoon
and push east Monday night. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 with lows near 70. -blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The Great Lakes trough will sharpen on Tuesday as short wave energy
dives into the Ohio Valley and moves into New England late Tuesday
night. An associated cold front will advance toward the Appalachians
early Tuesday and move across the Carolinas reaching the coast by
Wednesday morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the front including a continuation of convection
from the Monday night. NWP guidance has trended cooler for
maxes Tuesday likely reflecting widespread clouds and precipitation.
Will adjust maxes down to the mid 80s with lows tuesday night in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Not surprisingly the front stalls near or just south of our region
on Wednesday. Given the upper flow which is more westerly than
northwesterly and the time of year, not terribly confident
that the front will clear all of central NC so will include
slight chance pops for mainly afternoon/evening convection on
Wednesday with the greatest probabilities across the south and
east. Highs will be modulated by the location of the front and the
push of cooler air behind it. Will go with highs in the mid 80s
northeast to around 90 across the south with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

The eastern U.S. trough sharpens a bit on Thursday and Friday with
the trough axis setting up or retrograding west of the Appalachians.
The lingering cold front will persist before eventually washing
out with a low level southerly flow developing. This will result in
above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection on
Thursday and Friday. Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid
60s to around 70. -blaes

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM Saturday...

24 Hour TAF Period: An area of low stratus is now building into
northern counties and is affecting KGSO and soon to be KINT and
KRDU. This ceilings deck is coming in below 500 feet. It is
expected to linger well into the morning. Elsewhere, MVFR
visibilities are the main concern including at KRWI and KFAY. KRWI
was narrowly missed by a thunderstorm this morning but that should
move off to the east. As a front moves through the area, expect
winds to shift to north or northeasterly. This has already
occurred at some northern sites. As far as precipitation is
concerned, KFAY would be the most likely location for some heavier
showers or thunderstorms as it will be the closest to the front
during peak heating. Otherwise some minor scattered showers around
but nothing that should hinder aviation conditions.

Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Monday night through
Tuesday when the next frontal system moves through the area.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KDS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/BLS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251448
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1045 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push southward through the Carolinas
this morning and afternoon. Behind the front, high pressure will
extend from the Northeast coast through the Mid-Atlantic for the
remainder of the weekend. Another cold front will approach the area
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

The surface cold front was evident on radar just south of US 64 at
12z and has since settled into the southern CWA, with increasing
post frontal stratus that is about 1500ft thick per PIREPs.  The
southward progression of the stratus will stop as the front slows
this morning and diurnal heating acts on a relatively dry 925-850mb
airmass analyzed over the southern Piedmont/Coastal Plain.  This dry
air may actually help to delay and hinder destablization, with more
appreciable MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg confined to areas area of KFAY
this afternoon given dewpoints around 70 and peak heating in the
lower 90s.  Forcing is weak and limited to low-level convergence,
with just some pulse storms expected in weak deep shear.  High will
range from the lower 90s south to low/mid 80s north where stratus
will hold until early afternoon and some breaks can eventually (at
least temporarily) erode the low-level moisture. -BLS

Activity should push south of the area with the front this
evening,with some redevelopment of stratus possible as moisture
lingers.  Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

For Sunday expect a much drier and cooler day than we have seen
recently with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid
60s across much of the area. A gentle northeasterly wind and
scattered clouds during the afternoon should round out a very nice
end to the weekend. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The upper air pattern to start the work week features weak ridging
across the Southeast along with an eastward advancing upper
level trough across the Great Lakes. The departing surface high
pressure center moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England coast
will allow deep moisture to quickly return to the area from the
west with PW values increasing to more than 2 inches by late Monday
afternoon. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that develop across western NC Monday afternoon
and push east Monday night. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 with lows near 70. -blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

The Great Lakes trough will sharpen on Tuesday as short wave energy
dives into the Ohio Valley and moves into New England late Tuesday
night. An associated cold front will advance toward the Appalachians
early Tuesday and move across the Carolinas reaching the coast by
Wednesday morning. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of the front including a continuation of convection
from the Monday night. NWP guidance has trended cooler for
maxes Tuesday likely reflecting widespread clouds and precipitation.
Will adjust maxes down to the mid 80s with lows tuesday night in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Not surprisingly the front stalls near or just south of our region
on Wednesday. Given the upper flow which is more westerly than
northwesterly and the time of year, not terribly confident
that the front will clear all of central NC so will include
slight chance pops for mainly afternoon/evening convection on
Wednesday with the greatest probabilities across the south and
east. Highs will be modulated by the location of the front and the
push of cooler air behind it. Will go with highs in the mid 80s
northeast to around 90 across the south with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

The eastern U.S. trough sharpens a bit on Thursday and Friday with
the trough axis setting up or retrograding west of the Appalachians.
The lingering cold front will persist before eventually washing
out with a low level southerly flow developing. This will result in
above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection on
Thursday and Friday. Near to slightly below seasonable temperatures
are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid
60s to around 70. -blaes

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM Saturday...

24 Hour TAF Period: An area of low stratus is now building into
northern counties and is affecting KGSO and soon to be KINT and
KRDU. This ceilings deck is coming in below 500 feet. It is
expected to linger well into the morning. Elsewhere, MVFR
visibilities are the main concern including at KRWI and KFAY. KRWI
was narrowly missed by a thunderstorm this morning but that should
move off to the east. As a front moves through the area, expect
winds to shift to north or northeasterly. This has already
occurred at some northern sites. As far as precipitation is
concerned, KFAY would be the most likely location for some heavier
showers or thunderstorms as it will be the closest to the front
during peak heating. Otherwise some minor scattered showers around
but nothing that should hinder aviation conditions.

Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Monday night through
Tuesday when the next frontal system moves through the area.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KDS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/BLS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251356
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area this morning. High
pressure will build in from the north this weekend. Another cold
front will slowly move into the region by mid week and linger in
the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving across it through
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 955 AM Sat...The cold front is analyzed roughly from along
or just off of the Crystal Coast to near Florence,SC. Scattered
showers were currently occurring well to the north of the boundary
vicinity of Greenville/Washington and moving southeast. Guidance
is indicating that the cold front will become quasi- stationary
this morning then be pushed briefly north later this afternoon
with the sea breeze from the Crystal Coast/Onslow county to
adjacent inland counties. This region will become the focus for
scattered afternoon/early evening shower and thunderstorm activity
with only isolated cells expected to the north/east of this
region. There is much less shear observed across the area today so
not expecting severe thunderstorms but L.I.`s drop to -3 to -5 and
PW values will be AOA 1.75" so torrential downpours and gusty
winds are expected in the strongest storms. It is noted that the
SPC Marginal Risk for Severe storms clips Onslow and Duplin
counties but it appears the greatest risk for severe will be just
south of our area today.

It will be another warm day today though not as warm as last few
days. Highs should reach the mid/upr 80s south and west to the 70s
OBX where NE winds off the ocean bring cooling temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Front will be south of the area tonight with any
ISO/SCT precip moving offshore and away from the area by evening.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with a light NE breeze
and lower dewpoints making for pleasantly cooler temps with lows
in the low/mid 60s interior to upper 60s/near 70 beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 am Sat...Used a consensus blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF as both are in close agreement. Narrow ridge of high
pressure extending down the east coast into the Carolinas Sunday
into Monday will dissipate by Monday evening. A cold front to the
NW Tuesday will pass through Tuesday evening and become stationary
along or just off the southern coast Wednesday through Friday.
Little change to current forecast with dry conditions Sunday
through Monday. Chance PoPs for the rest of the period with the
front being the main focus for convection in a warm, humid and
unstable airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sat...Mainly VFR through first part of the TAF pd
though ocnl BR has developed due to the calm to light winds ahead
of the southward moving cold front. The front will pass through E
NC this morning with winds becoming NE today in the 5-10 kt range.
SCT/BKN strato cu expected today though should mainly be VFR.
Should see a lowering of the clouds to MVFR and possibly IFR by
late tonight.

Long Term /Sun through Wed/
As of 3 am Sat...VFR with dry weather Sunday into Monday. Sub-VFR
in scattered convection Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front
affects the area. Surface winds from the NE 5-10 knots Sunday, SE
around 5 knots Monday, SW around 5 knots Tuesday and S around 5
knots Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 955 AM Sat...Cold front will move southward through the
waters through the day today with winds becoming NE 10 to 20 kt
behind it. Seas will respond by building to 2 to 5 feet through
today and into tonight.

Long Term /Sun through Wed/
As of 3 am Sat...High pressure east of the New England coast extending
down the east coast Sunday into Monday will dissipate, with the
Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result, the
NE flow Sunday will gradually veer to SE Monday and SW Tuesday. A
cold front will enter the area from the NW late Tuesday night and
become stationary near to just off the south coast on Wednesday.
Winds will switch to N over generally north of Ocracoke Wednesday,
with waters to the south in an E to SE flow. Pressure gradient
through the period will not be very tight, with winds forecast no
higher than 5-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...JME/HSA/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251356
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area this morning. High
pressure will build in from the north this weekend. Another cold
front will slowly move into the region by mid week and linger in
the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving across it through
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 955 AM Sat...The cold front is analyzed roughly from along
or just off of the Crystal Coast to near Florence,SC. Scattered
showers were currently occurring well to the north of the boundary
vicinity of Greenville/Washington and moving southeast. Guidance
is indicating that the cold front will become quasi- stationary
this morning then be pushed briefly north later this afternoon
with the sea breeze from the Crystal Coast/Onslow county to
adjacent inland counties. This region will become the focus for
scattered afternoon/early evening shower and thunderstorm activity
with only isolated cells expected to the north/east of this
region. There is much less shear observed across the area today so
not expecting severe thunderstorms but L.I.`s drop to -3 to -5 and
PW values will be AOA 1.75" so torrential downpours and gusty
winds are expected in the strongest storms. It is noted that the
SPC Marginal Risk for Severe storms clips Onslow and Duplin
counties but it appears the greatest risk for severe will be just
south of our area today.

It will be another warm day today though not as warm as last few
days. Highs should reach the mid/upr 80s south and west to the 70s
OBX where NE winds off the ocean bring cooling temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Front will be south of the area tonight with any
ISO/SCT precip moving offshore and away from the area by evening.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with a light NE breeze
and lower dewpoints making for pleasantly cooler temps with lows
in the low/mid 60s interior to upper 60s/near 70 beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 am Sat...Used a consensus blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF as both are in close agreement. Narrow ridge of high
pressure extending down the east coast into the Carolinas Sunday
into Monday will dissipate by Monday evening. A cold front to the
NW Tuesday will pass through Tuesday evening and become stationary
along or just off the southern coast Wednesday through Friday.
Little change to current forecast with dry conditions Sunday
through Monday. Chance PoPs for the rest of the period with the
front being the main focus for convection in a warm, humid and
unstable airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sat...Mainly VFR through first part of the TAF pd
though ocnl BR has developed due to the calm to light winds ahead
of the southward moving cold front. The front will pass through E
NC this morning with winds becoming NE today in the 5-10 kt range.
SCT/BKN strato cu expected today though should mainly be VFR.
Should see a lowering of the clouds to MVFR and possibly IFR by
late tonight.

Long Term /Sun through Wed/
As of 3 am Sat...VFR with dry weather Sunday into Monday. Sub-VFR
in scattered convection Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front
affects the area. Surface winds from the NE 5-10 knots Sunday, SE
around 5 knots Monday, SW around 5 knots Tuesday and S around 5
knots Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 955 AM Sat...Cold front will move southward through the
waters through the day today with winds becoming NE 10 to 20 kt
behind it. Seas will respond by building to 2 to 5 feet through
today and into tonight.

Long Term /Sun through Wed/
As of 3 am Sat...High pressure east of the New England coast extending
down the east coast Sunday into Monday will dissipate, with the
Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result, the
NE flow Sunday will gradually veer to SE Monday and SW Tuesday. A
cold front will enter the area from the NW late Tuesday night and
become stationary near to just off the south coast on Wednesday.
Winds will switch to N over generally north of Ocracoke Wednesday,
with waters to the south in an E to SE flow. Pressure gradient
through the period will not be very tight, with winds forecast no
higher than 5-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...JME/HSA/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 251310
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
910 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but pivotal frontal boundary will dip slowly southward
today, helping to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build in behind the front tonight with slight
drying into Sunday. An uptick in thunderstorms will return Tuesday
and Wednesday as a front crosses the coast. A drying trend will
follow late next week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM Saturday...Frontal boundary being revealed in radar
returns and stratus trends, though shallow as vad wind profile
off KLTX indicating < 1KFT. Density gradients aloft associated
with impulses noted in vapor loops were helping to trip off
isolated convection this morning, though meager surface heating
and scant low-level CAPE values were keeping intensity levels
low. PWAT values blended from an array of space sensors indicate
the very deepest of moisture has edged offshore curling inland
across very southern SC and GA. Heating will help ignite SHRA
and TSTMS today and meso-scale boundaries should give impetus
for development in addition to the frontal boundary itself.
Overall the favored/forecasted QPF distribution will be more
weighted along and near the coast given not only greater vapor
content, but low-level wind-speed convergence resulting from
NE winds traveling from sea to land. No `significant` changes to
the forecast at this time but adjustments will likely be needed to
sky, temps, pops, and winds given the smaller scale nuances that
will muck-up and complicate any notion of a clear-cut forecast.
The SPC maintains a marginal risk of severe storms today with a
5% chance of wind damage or large hail. The previous forecaster
discussion follows.

The mid-level trof line pushes off the east coast early this
morning, resulting in flow aloft becoming nw. The mid-level
ridging will amplify this period, with the upper ridge axis
extending from the central Gulf coast states to the NE States. Not
your normal upper ridging orientation but this process allows the
sfc cold front to continue to drop se reaching the coast later
today...and off the coast and further south of the FA tonight. a
1025 mb High centered over the NE States will ridge southwest
across the Carolinas later tonight. The cold front, leftover
outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing to atleast initiate convection. Instability
already present will increase-some once the days insolation
commences. Some of this activity although isolated is already
ongoing. As we go thru the day, the primary activity will switch
from all areas to just along the coast by the end of daylight
hours. Can not rule out an isolated strong or even severe tstorm
today, however the FA will NOT see a repeat of Friday. Will
highlight the isolated severe in the Hazardous WX Outlook (HWO).
The drier and the slight cooler air will slowly infiltrate the FA
late today thru tonight. Will stay close to a model mos consensus
for max temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even the coastal
sites will see max temps flirt with the 90 degree level. The heat
index values will push to around 100 degrees across the sw
portions of the ILM CWA and will highlight in the HWO. Tonights
mins in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The upper ridging from the Near Term Period
will persist Sunday into early Monday. The mid-level ridging is
progged to break down late Monday thru Monday Night in response to a
potent closed low within the main band of westerlies aloft.
It is progged to move eastward along or in the vicinity of the U.S.
and Canada border reaching the Great Lakes during Monday.
This closed low is progged by the models to open up and become
nearly a full latitude mid-level trof by Tuesday morning. The
Southeast U.s. becomes under the influence of this upper trof with
heights decreasing. For Sunday and for the most part daylight Monday
will be pcpn free. With sfc ridging and flow from this high across
the fa, temps both days and nights will actually hover around the
normal values for this time of the year. With Upper 80s to around 90
for maxes and upper 60s to around 70 for mins. For Monday night, the
approach of a sfc cold front and also the mid-level trof both from
the west will likely result with an increase of pops especially
during the pre-dawn Tue hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Mid level pattern will be undergoing a
transition to broad 5h troughing over the eastern CONUS as the
period begins. On Tue, northwest flow aloft, as the 5h ridge
retreats west, will move afternoon Piedmont trough convection to
the coast. Continued northwest flow Wed helps push a cold front
into the region, increasing precip chances midweek. Front ends up
stalled in the area Wed night and Thu as the 5h trough flattens
and the mid level push weakens. Abundant moisture along with
diurnal instability in the presence of the boundary will maintain
elevated precip chances for Thu. At this point hard to pick a
favored location, something which will depend on the location of
the stalled surface boundary. Shortwave trough dropping into the
TN Valley late Thu into Fri pulls the front back north, setting
the stage for widespread diurnal convection as the period ends.
Temperatures will be near climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...Weak cold front has dropped S of KILM/KLBT as of 12Z.
The flow aloft is progged to sharpen or amplify later this morning
thru tonight which will push front through the remaining terminals
during the afternoon. Until then the proximity of the cold front,
leftover outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing for convection. Instability already present will
increase some once the days insolation commences. Some of this
convection, although isolated, is already ongoing SW of KLBT. Dry
in the mid levels should lessen coverage but will mention TEMPO
TS/MVFR in TAFs. Confidence is low as to exact timing. Although
IFR could occur temporarily, due to less coverage chances should be
low. All terminals should be clear of convection by early evening
with NE winds. There is currently model consensus for IFR stratus
ceilings developing by/after 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection today and again Tue into Wed. And
possible mvfr from fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM Saturday...The overall trend for this period will be
the diminishing wind speeds, and, the veering of the wind
directions from the sw-w this morning to the ne- ene after the cfp
later today thru tonight. This cold front will slowly drop sse and
should exit the southernmost ILM waters by early to mid evening.
Models lately have been too aggressive in quickly dropping these
fronts to, thru, and across the area waters. And as a result, I
backed off by 3 to 6 hrs and thus the mid evening time- line.
There really is no big pump of drier air or cooler air behind this
cfp. The models indicate a tightened gradient after the cfp during
Sunday but is only temporary. In all, should see wind speeds 10 to
15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt thru today, dropping back to around
10 kt tonight. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft and mainly be
governed by the wind driven variety at 4 to 6 second periods.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The 1025 mb High centered over the NE states
on Sunday, will ridge sw across the Carolinas on Sunday.
a brief mini surge will occur on Sunday under ne to ene winds at 10
to around 15 kt. This due to a temporary tightening of the sfc pg
not a major influx of cooler air or drier air. The High will get
kicked off the coast and offshore from the NE states on Monday. Its
sfc ridge axis across the area Sunday will dissipate as the High
itself pushes east of the waters early Monday. A cold front will
make its approach from the west Monday Night. Winds will generally
veer from the east late Sunday night or early Monday to the s or sw
during Monday night. The sfc pg will become relaxed with resulting
wind speeds around 10 kt at best.

Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft Sunday, then slowly subside to
around 2 ft by late Monday and Monday night. Wind driven waves at 4
to 5 second periods will dominate on Sunday. For sunday night thru
Monday night, an easterly ground swell at 8 second periods will
become the dominant player for significant seas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...High pressure off the East Coast will
maintain southwest flow over the waters Tue into Wed. A cold front
will approach from the northwest but end up stalling just west of
the waters Wed. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft during the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...DCH/Colby
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 251310
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
910 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but pivotal frontal boundary will dip slowly southward
today, helping to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build in behind the front tonight with slight
drying into Sunday. An uptick in thunderstorms will return Tuesday
and Wednesday as a front crosses the coast. A drying trend will
follow late next week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM Saturday...Frontal boundary being revealed in radar
returns and stratus trends, though shallow as vad wind profile
off KLTX indicating < 1KFT. Density gradients aloft associated
with impulses noted in vapor loops were helping to trip off
isolated convection this morning, though meager surface heating
and scant low-level CAPE values were keeping intensity levels
low. PWAT values blended from an array of space sensors indicate
the very deepest of moisture has edged offshore curling inland
across very southern SC and GA. Heating will help ignite SHRA
and TSTMS today and meso-scale boundaries should give impetus
for development in addition to the frontal boundary itself.
Overall the favored/forecasted QPF distribution will be more
weighted along and near the coast given not only greater vapor
content, but low-level wind-speed convergence resulting from
NE winds traveling from sea to land. No `significant` changes to
the forecast at this time but adjustments will likely be needed to
sky, temps, pops, and winds given the smaller scale nuances that
will muck-up and complicate any notion of a clear-cut forecast.
The SPC maintains a marginal risk of severe storms today with a
5% chance of wind damage or large hail. The previous forecaster
discussion follows.

The mid-level trof line pushes off the east coast early this
morning, resulting in flow aloft becoming nw. The mid-level
ridging will amplify this period, with the upper ridge axis
extending from the central Gulf coast states to the NE States. Not
your normal upper ridging orientation but this process allows the
sfc cold front to continue to drop se reaching the coast later
today...and off the coast and further south of the FA tonight. a
1025 mb High centered over the NE States will ridge southwest
across the Carolinas later tonight. The cold front, leftover
outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing to atleast initiate convection. Instability
already present will increase-some once the days insolation
commences. Some of this activity although isolated is already
ongoing. As we go thru the day, the primary activity will switch
from all areas to just along the coast by the end of daylight
hours. Can not rule out an isolated strong or even severe tstorm
today, however the FA will NOT see a repeat of Friday. Will
highlight the isolated severe in the Hazardous WX Outlook (HWO).
The drier and the slight cooler air will slowly infiltrate the FA
late today thru tonight. Will stay close to a model mos consensus
for max temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even the coastal
sites will see max temps flirt with the 90 degree level. The heat
index values will push to around 100 degrees across the sw
portions of the ILM CWA and will highlight in the HWO. Tonights
mins in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The upper ridging from the Near Term Period
will persist Sunday into early Monday. The mid-level ridging is
progged to break down late Monday thru Monday Night in response to a
potent closed low within the main band of westerlies aloft.
It is progged to move eastward along or in the vicinity of the U.S.
and Canada border reaching the Great Lakes during Monday.
This closed low is progged by the models to open up and become
nearly a full latitude mid-level trof by Tuesday morning. The
Southeast U.s. becomes under the influence of this upper trof with
heights decreasing. For Sunday and for the most part daylight Monday
will be pcpn free. With sfc ridging and flow from this high across
the fa, temps both days and nights will actually hover around the
normal values for this time of the year. With Upper 80s to around 90
for maxes and upper 60s to around 70 for mins. For Monday night, the
approach of a sfc cold front and also the mid-level trof both from
the west will likely result with an increase of pops especially
during the pre-dawn Tue hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Mid level pattern will be undergoing a
transition to broad 5h troughing over the eastern CONUS as the
period begins. On Tue, northwest flow aloft, as the 5h ridge
retreats west, will move afternoon Piedmont trough convection to
the coast. Continued northwest flow Wed helps push a cold front
into the region, increasing precip chances midweek. Front ends up
stalled in the area Wed night and Thu as the 5h trough flattens
and the mid level push weakens. Abundant moisture along with
diurnal instability in the presence of the boundary will maintain
elevated precip chances for Thu. At this point hard to pick a
favored location, something which will depend on the location of
the stalled surface boundary. Shortwave trough dropping into the
TN Valley late Thu into Fri pulls the front back north, setting
the stage for widespread diurnal convection as the period ends.
Temperatures will be near climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...Weak cold front has dropped S of KILM/KLBT as of 12Z.
The flow aloft is progged to sharpen or amplify later this morning
thru tonight which will push front through the remaining terminals
during the afternoon. Until then the proximity of the cold front,
leftover outflows and embedded mid-level s/w trofs will provide the
necessary forcing for convection. Instability already present will
increase some once the days insolation commences. Some of this
convection, although isolated, is already ongoing SW of KLBT. Dry
in the mid levels should lessen coverage but will mention TEMPO
TS/MVFR in TAFs. Confidence is low as to exact timing. Although
IFR could occur temporarily, due to less coverage chances should be
low. All terminals should be clear of convection by early evening
with NE winds. There is currently model consensus for IFR stratus
ceilings developing by/after 06Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Except for brief MVFR/IFR
conditions from convection today and again Tue into Wed. And
possible mvfr from fog each early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM Saturday...The overall trend for this period will be
the diminishing wind speeds, and, the veering of the wind
directions from the sw-w this morning to the ne- ene after the cfp
later today thru tonight. This cold front will slowly drop sse and
should exit the southernmost ILM waters by early to mid evening.
Models lately have been too aggressive in quickly dropping these
fronts to, thru, and across the area waters. And as a result, I
backed off by 3 to 6 hrs and thus the mid evening time- line.
There really is no big pump of drier air or cooler air behind this
cfp. The models indicate a tightened gradient after the cfp during
Sunday but is only temporary. In all, should see wind speeds 10 to
15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt thru today, dropping back to around
10 kt tonight. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft and mainly be
governed by the wind driven variety at 4 to 6 second periods.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...The 1025 mb High centered over the NE states
on Sunday, will ridge sw across the Carolinas on Sunday.
a brief mini surge will occur on Sunday under ne to ene winds at 10
to around 15 kt. This due to a temporary tightening of the sfc pg
not a major influx of cooler air or drier air. The High will get
kicked off the coast and offshore from the NE states on Monday. Its
sfc ridge axis across the area Sunday will dissipate as the High
itself pushes east of the waters early Monday. A cold front will
make its approach from the west Monday Night. Winds will generally
veer from the east late Sunday night or early Monday to the s or sw
during Monday night. The sfc pg will become relaxed with resulting
wind speeds around 10 kt at best.

Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft Sunday, then slowly subside to
around 2 ft by late Monday and Monday night. Wind driven waves at 4
to 5 second periods will dominate on Sunday. For sunday night thru
Monday night, an easterly ground swell at 8 second periods will
become the dominant player for significant seas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...High pressure off the East Coast will
maintain southwest flow over the waters Tue into Wed. A cold front
will approach from the northwest but end up stalling just west of
the waters Wed. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft during the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...DCH/Colby
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR




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