Home > Products > State Listing > North Carolina Data
Latest:
 AFDRAH |  AFDILM |  AFDMHX |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KRAH 250202
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
959 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure near the surface and aloft will build
into central NC through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 955 PM Tuesday...

High pressure expanding at the surface and aloft will maintain clear
skies and a light wind regime overnight, as the stacked area of low
pressure (now located near the Northeast U.S. coast) continues to
slowly lift off to the north and east. This will result in mostly
clear skies tonight with light and variable to calm winds. However,
with temps having warmed into the 80s today expect overnight lows
will be warmer tonight than last. Expect low temps will range from
the mid 50s in the coolest rural areas to the lower 60s/around 60 in
the urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Wednesday...while the low level air mass will be slightly unstable,
primarily over the coastal plain, a subsidence cap attributed to the
ridge aloft will likely inhibit convective development during the
heat of the day. If there was a mentionable threat for an isolated
thunderstorm, guidance would suggest the I-95 corridor has the
favored region.

May see a slightly better chance for afternoon-early evening
convection on Thursday as upper heights falter a bit in response to
a minor s/w crossing the OH valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This
weakening of the cap along with another day of string heating
resulting in a slight to moderately unstable low level air mass
should support a few thunderstorms.
The threat for late day convection appears highest in the Piedmont
in vicinity of a lee side trough.

Above normal temperatures expected both Wednesday and Thursday with
max temps in the mid-upper 80s common. Potential for a few spots to
hit 90 as the 850mb/700mb anti-cyclones are in a favorable
position/strength for hot conditions. Mild conditions expected
Wednesday night with min temps in the lower 60s. A bit warmer
Thursday night with min temps in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

The main forecast concern during this period will be low pressure
off the FL east coast on Friday, that is progged by both the GFS and
ECMWF to lift north toward the Carolina coast over the weekend. The
12z ECMWF is now much farther south with the low compared to its 00z
run, and is now in better agreement with the GFS, which shows the
low center coming ashore somewhere along the SC coast. Both
solutions suggest the chances for a prolonged period of cloudy and
damp weather for central NC is increasing, thus will continue the
upward trend in our POPs for the period from Saturday night through
at least Monday.  In fact, if the latest ECMWF solution verifies, it
could possibly remain cloudy, damp (perhaps even wet), and breezy
from Sunday right through Monday and even into Tuesday. For now,
given the uncertainties and low confidence, will keep pops limited
to the chance range Saturday night through Tuesday; but if you have
outdoor plans this holiday weekend, you`ll definitely want to pay
close attention to the forecast!

In the meantime for Friday and at least the first half of Saturday,
our weather will be influenced by the sfc ridge extending south
across the Carolinas from the parent high to our north and east
offshore. On Friday, a few daytime showers over the higher terrain
may drift east toward our western coastal plain counties during the
afternoon, but drier air in the subsident region north of the
aforementioned low will be pushing westward and should keep most of
central NC dry Friday into early Saturday.

Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 80s and lows in the lower-mid
60s. Temps late in the weekend into early next week will be mostly
influenced by what happens with the low and subsequent rain. For
now, will stay close to climo during that time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence of VFR conditions through the
TAF period as high pressure moves overhead. Winds are expected to be
out of the southwest at around 5 kts with mostly clear skies. No
significant restrictions to aviation are expected.

Long term: VFR conditions should prevail through much of the
extended until Thursday night into Friday when rain becomes more of
a threat in the NW Piedmont.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...Ellis




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250005
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
804 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure near the surface and aloft will build
into central NC through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 300 pm Tuesday...

High pressure expanding at the surface and aloft will maintain clear
skies and light wind regime. In the relatively dry air mass, temps
will cool appreciably this evening...cooling into the 60s by 10 pm.
Overnight temps in the 55-60 degree range.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Wednesday...while the low level air mass will be slightly unstable,
primarily over the coastal plain, a subsidence cap attributed to the
ridge aloft will likely inhibit convective development during the
heat of the day. If there was a mentionable threat for an isolated
thunderstorm, guidance would suggest the I-95 corridor has the
favored region.

May see a slightly better chance for afternoon-early evening
convection on Thursday as upper heights falter a bit in response to
a minor s/w crossing the OH valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This
weakening of the cap along with another day of string heating
resulting in a slight to moderately unstable low level air mass
should support a few thunderstorms.
The threat for late day convection appears highest in the Piedmont
in vicinity of a lee side trough.

Above normal temperatures expected both Wednesday and Thursday with
max temps in the mid-upper 80s common. Potential for a few spots to
hit 90 as the 850mb/700mb anti-cyclones are in a favorable
position/strength for hot conditions. Mild conditions expected
Wednesday night with min temps in the lower 60s. A bit warmer
Thursday night with min temps in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

The main forecast concern during this period will be low pressure
off the FL east coast on Friday, that is progged by both the GFS and
ECMWF to lift north toward the Carolina coast over the weekend. The
12z ECMWF is now much farther south with the low compared to its 00z
run, and is now in better agreement with the GFS, which shows the
low center coming ashore somewhere along the SC coast. Both
solutions suggest the chances for a prolonged period of cloudy and
damp weather for central NC is increasing, thus will continue the
upward trend in our POPs for the period from Saturday night through
at least Monday.  In fact, if the latest ECMWF solution verifies, it
could possibly remain cloudy, damp (perhaps even wet), and breezy
from Sunday right through Monday and even into Tuesday. For now,
given the uncertainties and low confidence, will keep pops limited
to the chance range Saturday night through Tuesday; but if you have
outdoor plans this holiday weekend, you`ll definitely want to pay
close attention to the forecast!

In the meantime for Friday and at least the first half of Saturday,
our weather will be influenced by the sfc ridge extending south
across the Carolinas from the parent high to our north and east
offshore. On Friday, a few daytime showers over the higher terrain
may drift east toward our western coastal plain coutnies during the
afternoon, but drier air in the subsident region north of the
aforementioned low will be pushing westward and should keep most of
central NC dry Friday into early Saturday.

Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 80s and lows in the lower-mid
60s. Temps late in the weekend into early next week will be mostly
influenced by what happens with the low and subsequent rain. For
now, will stay close to climo during that time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence of VFR conditions through the
TAF period as high pressure moves overhead. Winds are expected to be
out of the southwest at around 5 kts with mostly clear skies. No
significant restrictions to aviation are expected.

Long term: VFR conditions should prevail through much of the
extended until Thursday night into Friday when rain becomes more of
a threat in the NW Piedmont.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...Ellis



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 241930
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warmup gets underway tomorrow as high pressure spreads across
a good portion of the Atlantic. Low pressure will develop east of
the Bahamas late in the week. It is too soon to tell where this
feature will end up bringing wet weather but it may be locally.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...A return to quiet weather as high pressure
takes residence over the southeast. only a few clusters of cu
across the area but otherwise sunshine was plentiful this
afternoon. Temps soared to around 80 under bright May sunshine.
With pcp water down around .8 inches, dewpoint temps in the 50sand
a dry downslope westerly flow aloft, expect dry weather through
tonight. Ideal radiational cooling will occur tonight as winds
drop off after sunset and skies remain mainly clear. This will
result in low temps within a few degrees of 60 most places.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Mid to upper ridge will build up the
southeast coast with increasing heights and plenty of warm May
sunshine to create temps up above normal. Expect temps to reach
well into the 80s to around 90 in spots. Plenty of dry air and
subsidence will keep shwrs/tstms out of the forecast for the most
part, but will not rule out a few aftn cu. Models continue to show
a minor shortwave reaching into the Carolinas on Thurs. This may
support a few thunderstorms...mainly west of the area. Included a
slight chc around I-95 corridor. The center of high will
basically remain off the coast shifting east through the week and
therefore expect a southerly return flow around the high helping
to bring slightly higher dewpoint air into the region. this will
help to moderate overnight lows a bit, keeping temps in the 60s.
Resumption of SW return flow will limit overnight cooling with low
and middle 60s at daybreaks.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 3 PM Tuesday... Model agreement regarding the area of
disturbed weather just east of the Bahamas is getting hard to
ignore. The agreement is related to the fact that they all develop
low pressure out of this mass of convection that is likely at least
partly warm core. Where the agreement trails off is with respect to
the path and timing of said low. This will have large local forecast
ramifications as models like the GFS that decidedly bring it into
the SC coast would imply a fairly wet weekend maybe lasting into
early next week as the system meanders. Other solutions that keep
the meandering motion offshore through the period could keep us in
the subsiding and drier area west of the low/trough. Should we
remain outside of the effects of the system then with a building
upper ridge off the coast we may not have very strong forcing for
precipitation.  But since even since the latest 12Z ECMWF brings
associated moisture ashore by Saturday will keep the forecast as-is
showing a rise in POPs Saturday as well as tempered afternoon highs.
When and where this features comes ashore may be in for a long wet
period as it will be quite slow to move stuck under the
aforementioned ridge aloft.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...Surface high pressure will build across the area
through Wednesday. May see a few convective clouds this afternoon
but that should be the extent. VFR conditions through the period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Tranquil marine conditions will continue
with southerly return flow 10 to 15 kts. Any gustier winds due to
sea breeze this afternoon will drop below 10 kts out of the SW for
the most part overnight as high pressure takes residence over the
waters off the southeast coast. Seas will remain less than 3 ft.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Southerly return flow will continue
around high pressure center to the east of the local waters.
gradient remains weak with winds generally less than 15 kts but
expect a spike in winds and a bit of chop each afternoon as sea
breeze kicks in producing some gustier winds for a few hours. seas
will remain below 3 ft.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 3 PM Tuesday...   Some vexing uncertainty regarding a possible
area of low pressure that is forecast to develop from the area of
current disturbed weather east of the Bahamas. Winds will stay
onshore through the long term. The possible effects, if any from the
low will be possibly to veer them and/or increase wind and seas.
Have not changed the current forecast which shows a little of all
(veering, increased wind speeds, building seas).

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...mbb
AVIATION...SHK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241926
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure near the surface and aloft will build
into central NC through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 300 pm Tuesday...

High pressure expanding at the surface and aloft will maintain clear
skies and light wind regime. In the relatively dry air mass, temps
will cool appreciably this evening...cooling into the 60s by 10 pm.
Overnight temps in the 55-60 degree range.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Wednesday...while the low level air mass will be slightly unstable,
primarily over the coastal plain, a subsidence cap attributed to the
ridge aloft will likely inhibit convective development during the
heat of the day. If there was a mentionable threat for an isolated
thunderstorm, guidance would suggest the I-95 corridor has the
favored region.

May see a slightly better chance for afternoon-early evening
convection on Thursday as upper heights falter a bit in response to
a minor s/w crossing the OH valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This
weakening of the cap along with another day of string heating
resulting in a slight to moderately unstable low level air mass
should support a few thunderstorms.
The threat for late day convection appears highest in the Piedmont
in vicinity of a lee side trough.

Above normal temperatures expected both Wednesday and Thursday with
max temps in the mid-upper 80s common. Potential for a few spots to
hit 90 as the 850mb/700mb anti-cyclones are in a favorable
position/strength for hot conditions. Mild conditions expected
Wednesday night with min temps in the lower 60s. A bit warmer
Thursday night with min temps in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

The main forecast concern during this period will be low pressure
off the FL east coast on Friday, that is progged by both the GFS and
ECMWF to lift north toward the Carolina coast over the weekend. The
12z ECMWF is now much farther south with the low compared to its 00z
run, and is now in better agreement with the GFS, which shows the
low center coming ashore somewhere along the SC coast. Both
solutions suggest the chances for a prolonged period of cloudy and
damp weather for central NC is increasing, thus will continue the
upward trend in our POPs for the period from Saturday night through
at least Monday.  In fact, if the latest ECMWF solution verifies, it
could possibly remain cloudy, damp (perhaps even wet), and breezy
from Sunday right through Monday and even into Tuesday. For now,
given the uncertainties and low confidence, will keep pops limited
to the chance range Saturday night through Tuesday; but if you have
outdoor plans this holiday weekend, you`ll definitely want to pay
close attention to the forecast!

In the meantime for Friday and at least the first half of Saturday,
our weather will be influenced by the sfc ridge extending south
across the Carolinas from the parent high to our north and east
offshore. On Friday, a few daytime showers over the higher terrain
may drift east toward our western coastal plain coutnies during the
afternoon, but drier air in the subsident region north of the
aforementioned low will be pushing westward and should keep most of
central NC dry Friday into early Saturday.

Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 80s and lows in the lower-mid
60s. Temps late in the weekend into early next week will be mostly
influenced by what happens with the low and subsequent rain. For
now, will stay close to climo during that time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Sunday/...
As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

An area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will result in
mostly clear skies and generally (less than 10kts) light winds
through Wednesday night.

The VFR conditions are expected to continue Thursday and Friday
though there will be a threat for isolated-scattered convection each
afternoon.

The threat for adverse aviation weather conditions will increase
Saturday through Monday as an area of low pressure is expected to
develop then move slowly along the coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 241916
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
316 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low
pressure will approach from the south Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Bermuda High setting up as ridging aloft
moves into the area. This will mean clear and calm conditions
overnight. Good radiational cooling will help drop temps into the
low 60s inland with mid 60s along the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Above normal temps in store as the the H5
ridge builds into the region. Given this and the Bermuda High in
place, this will translate into increasing thickness under sunny
skies and warm SW flow allowing temps to climb into the mid/upper
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...Warm and dry weather will prevail through
the end of the week, then unsettled conditions as low pressure
develops off the Georgia/South Carolina coast and meanders to our
south into early next week.

Wednesday night through Friday night...Rising upper level heights
coupled with surface high pressure lingering off the Carolina
coast will lead to warm and dry conditions through the remainder
of the work week. Numerical guidance shows high temperatures well
into the 80s Thursday and Friday with lower 80s Outer Banks. Skies
will be generally clear with dewpoints remaining in the 60s
through the period as we finally appear to be transitioning into
late Spring weather.

Saturday through Tuesday...Better agreement amongst the GFS/ECMWF
and Canadian showing surface low pressure forming off the GA/SC
border. Given very weak mid-level flow...the low will basically
meander to our south for a few days. Moisture increases with low
PoPs returning to the immediate coast late Friday night and over
all areas Saturday into Tuesday. In conjunction with neighorboring
offices and uncertainty...have kept Pops generally in the 30-40
percent range through the period. With the increased cloud
coverage, expecting a small diurnal temperatures variation through
this period with lows generally upper 60s to around 70 and highs
around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the short
term. Skies should be clear and winds will be out of the SW around
10 knots with less wind overnight. There could be some patchy fog
again at OAJ but confidence is low at this point...so it was not
included in the TAF.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...High pressure along the southeast coast
coupled with ridging aloft will lead to VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies Wednesday night through Friday/Friday night. As
usual...there could be brief patches of early morning fog, but
overall impact will be minimal. Longer range guidance still
indicates low pressure forming off the GA/SC coast by the weekend
with an increase in low-level moisture and precipitation by
Saturday. This could result in periods of sub-VFR conditions in
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Pleasant boating conditions through the
period as High pressure shifts off the southeast coast. Expect
southwest flow through the period, 10-15kts with seas 3 to 4 feet
through tonight and eventually subsiding to 2 to 3 feet Wednesday.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...High pressure at the surface and aloft will
help maintain SE/S winds at generally 10 knots or less with seas
2-3 feet Wednesday night through Friday. Good agreement with
longer range models showing surface low pressure forming off the
GA/SC coast and meandering to our south into early next week with
very weak mid-level flow. Latest local SWAN model and Wavewatch
shows seas building to 6 feet over the far southern waters late
Friday night then increasing elsewhere through Saturday as long
fetch energy overtakes the coast around the surface low to the
south. At this point, winds look at stay at 15 knots or less as
best winds stay well to our south per current model projections.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SGK
MARINE...CTC/LEP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241902
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 pM EDT Tue May 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure near the surface and aloft will build
into central NC through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 300 pm Tuesday...

High pressure expanding at the surface and aloft will maintain clear
skies and light wind regime. In the relatively dry air mass, temps
will cool appreciably this evening...cooling into the 60s by 10 pm.
Overnight temps in the 55-60 degree range.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Wednesday...while the low level air mass will be slightly unstable,
primarily over the coastal plain, a subsidence cap attributed to the
ridge aloft will likely inhibit convective development during the
heat of the day. If there was a mentionable threat for an isolated
thunderstorm, guidance would suggest the I-95 corridor has the
favored region.

May see a slightly better chance for afternoon-early evening
convection on Thursday as upper heights falter a bit in response to
a minor s/w crossing the OH valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This
weakening of the cap along with another day of string heating
resulting in a slight to moderately unstable low level air mass
should support a few thunderstorms.
The threat for late day convection appears highest in the Piedmont
in vicinity of a lee side trough.

Above normal temperatures expected both Wednesday and Thursday with
max temps in the mid-upper 80s common. Potential for a few spots to
hit 90 as the 850mb/700mb anti-cyclones are in a favorable
position/strength for hot conditions. Mild conditions expected
Wednesday night with min temps in the lower 60s. A bit warmer
Thursday night with min temps in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...

The pattern aloft this period will be characterized by a western
CONUS trough and an a ridge from near Bermuda to Ontario/Quebec.
At the base of/beneath the eastern ridge, southern stream energy --
the lead of which is now crossing the lower-middle MS Valley-- will
help re-develop a mid to upper-level low INVOF the Bahamas during
the next couple of days. A shear axis, or weakness between sub-
tropical ridge centers near Bermuda, and across much of the Gulf of
Mexico and north-central Mexico, will extend north from the low over
the Bahamas, into the southeastern U.S.

The trend in model guidance in the past 24 hours has been toward a
more pronounced surface reflection in association with the Bahamas
low, which subsequently would get steered --at the base of the sub-
tropical ridge near Bermuda-- toward the southeast U.S. coast this
weekend.

Thu-Fri: Subsidence in association with the sub-tropical ridge near
Bermuda, along with the absence of lifting mechanisms and incomplete
modification of the initially cool and dry continental air mass over
the eastern U.S., will help suppress deep convection over central NC
late this week.

Sat-Mon: There remains a high degree of uncertainty in the details,
but the overwhelming trend toward a more substantial influence from
the aforementioned low pressure near the southeast U.S coast
suggests we are likely to see an increase in clouds and
precipitation chances as the weekend wears on, some of which may
linger into early next week, as whatever becomes of the
aforementioned low pressure may get trapped beneath the higher
latitude ridging to the north. Thicknesses support temps slightly
above normal, though tempered by the increase in clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Sunday/...
As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

An area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will result in
mostly clear skies and generally (less than 10kts) light winds
through Wednesday night.

The VFR conditions are expected to continue Thursday and Friday
though there will be a threat for isolated-scattered convection each
afternoon.

The threat for adverse aviation weather conditions will increase
Saturday through Monday as an area of low pressure is expected to
develop then move slowly along the coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 241720
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region for the next several
days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...A return to quiet weather as not a cloud in
the sky appears over the local forecast area. After a cool start,
the temps were up into the 70s by mid morning and will continue to
soar under bright May sunshine. With pcp water down around .8
inches, dewpoint temps in the 50sand a dry downslope westerly
flow aloft, expect plenty of sunshine this afternoon. The SREF
and HRRR show potential for a few showers along the SC coast but
mainly down toward CHS where a bit more moisture is present. As
temps warm up near 80 through the day, expect sea breeze to
develop and cool coastal areas a bit, but overall a sunny warm
day with temps running a few degrees below normal.

Fair weather this evening in weak low level return flow coupled
with good radiational heat escape under mostly clear skies...will
result minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets
flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s
across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling.
Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on
showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place
for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will
limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite
high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the
southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in
developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF
recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in
agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off
the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this
feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range
guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level
ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend.

Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears
there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the
southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the
resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily
showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will
keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little
above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...Surface high pressure will build across the area
through Wednesday. May see a few convective clouds this afternoon
but that should be the extent. VFR conditions through the period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...Tranquil marine conditions this morning in
a weak off shore flow. Winds will shift to the SW and increase up
to 15 kt in the late afternoon as the sea breeze adds a few
knots. Overall a SW return flow will develop as high pressure
takes hold and settles over the waters. Expect SW winds 10 kts or
less overnight. Seas will remain less than 3 ft.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this
period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea
heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18
kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but
overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look
out fish.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential
low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce
southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for
Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with
speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an
increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri
morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for
higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late
in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 241637
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1237 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will gradually move northeast of the area today.
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore tonight
through Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low
pressure will approach from the south Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 945 AM Tuesday...Minor adjustments made to hourly trends.
Otherwise, forecast is on track. A beautiful day in store as high
pressure builds into the area from the west and the upper level
trough exits the east coast. This will provide west winds and
rebounding temperatures under sunny skies. Highs will range from
the lower 80s inland to mid 70s along the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...The upper low will lift out to the NE and
away from the region with heights beginning to rise and the low
level flow becoming westerly with a warming and drying
atmosphere. Surface high pressure builds in from the west then
moves to the south tonight as surface low continues moving NE.
Milder temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the upper
50s inland to the lower and mid 60s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Main changes with this issuance were to
drop POPs for Thursday and Friday, and increase POPs Friday night
through Monday. Latest guidance indicates diminished precip
chances for late week, but has trended wetter for holiday weekend
with mid level weakness moving towards area from Bahamas.

Wednesday through Friday: Surface high pressure will persist over
the the Atlantic and extend into NC during period, producing a SW
flow of warm/humid air across the area. Persistent upper ridging
will limit forcing and latest guidance in good agreement on precip
threat remaining to west and north, thus have dropped slight
chance POPs for Thu-Fri. Highs are expected in the mid to upper
80s inland to around 80 along the coast and lows in the mid 60s
inland/upper 60s coast.

Friday night through Monday: Increased POPs to 20/30% Friday night
into Sunday and 30/40% Sunday night and Monday. 00Z GFS and ECMWF
operational runs continue recent trend of subtropical low
approaching from SE Fri night and Sat, then stalling near or south
of area Sun-Mon. At very least, moisture will be increasing over
area with surface to mid level flow becoming SE-S, resulting in
scattered shower/thunderstorm threat, more cloudiness and max
temps a few degrees cooler than Wed-Fri period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the short
term. Skies should be clear and winds will be out of the SW around
10 knots with less wind overnight. There could be some patchy fog
again at OAJ but confidence is low at this point...so it was not
included in the TAF.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Ridging surface and aloft is expected to
prevail across the region Wednesday through Friday producing predominant
VFR conditions outside any brief early morning fog. Guidance
continues to trend to moisture increasing Friday night into
Saturday with possible subtropical low approaching from SE-S. This
may result in threat of sub-VFR conditions with scattered
convective activity and onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/...
As of 945 AM Tuesday...No changes on update. Currently west winds
10-15kts and seas 3 to 4 feet. An upper level trough will continue
to move northeast off the mid- Atlantic coast through the period
with a weak sfc low moving further out to sea. Seas are currently
2-5 feet, highest northern and central coastal waters. Expect very
nice boating conditions today with west winds 10-15 kts and seas
subsiding to 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...A Bermuda high surface pressure pattern
will develop and persist over the Atlantic through Friday,
producing improved boating conditions with mainly SW winds 5 to
15 KT and seas 2-4 FT. Recent model trends indicate possible
subtropical low approaching from SE-S Friday night-Saturday. Have
adjusted winds more to SE with seas building to 4-5 FT to reflect
this trend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SGK
MARINE...JAC/JBM/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KILM 241551
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1151 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region for the next several
days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...A return to quiet weather as not a cloud in
the sky appears over the local forecast area. After a cool start,
the temps were up into the 70s by mid morning and will continue to
soar under bright May sunshine. With pcp water down around .8
inches, dewpoint temps in the 50sand a dry downslope westerly
flow aloft, expect plenty of sunshine this afternoon. The SREF
and HRRR show potential for a few showers along the SC coast but
mainly down toward CHS where a bit more moisture is present. As
temps warm up near 80 through the day, expect sea breeze to
develop and cool coastal areas a bit, but overall a sunny warm
day with temps running a few degrees below normal.

Fair weather this evening in weak low level return flow coupled
with good radiational heat escape under mostly clear skies...will
result minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets
flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s
across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling.
Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on
showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place
for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will
limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite
high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the
southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in
developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF
recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in
agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off
the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this
feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range
guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level
ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend.

Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears
there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the
southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the
resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily
showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will
keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little
above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...Any patchy light fog will be out of here shortly after
TAF issuance. Upper low is pulling away but still may have enough
influence to produce CU this afternoon...mainly from 15-21Z. No
precip is expected...but could not rule out isolated convection over
the extreme northeast portion of the CWA. Tonight...mainly clear
skies with little or no fog expected due to moderate southwest flow
aloft.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...Tranquil marine conditions this morning in
a weak off shore flow. Winds will shift to the SW and increase up
to 15 kt in the late afternoon as the sea breeze adds a few
knots. Overall a SW return flow will develop as high pressure
takes hold and settles over the waters. Expect SW winds 10 kts or
less overnight. Seas will remain less than 3 ft.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this
period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea
heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18
kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but
overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look
out fish.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential
low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce
southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for
Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with
speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an
increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri
morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for
higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late
in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241456
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1055 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure near the surface and aloft will build
into central NC through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1055 AM Tuesday...

Little change required to the near term forecast.

As a strong upper level low continues to pull farther away from
central NC this afternoon and tonight, an area of high pressure near
the surface and aloft will expand over our region. The subsidence
associated with the rising heights/pressure will deter vertical
growth of the cumulus this afternoon. Abundant sunshine will aid to
warm temperatures in the the 78-83 degrees range, very close to
normal for this time of year. -WSS

The surface high will quickly shift off the Southeast coast tonight,
but the pressure gradient will remain weak, resulting in strong
radiational cooling and lows dipping back into the mid 50s. -22

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday Night/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

The warming trend will continue on Wednesday as a 588dm H5 ridge
builds over the Deep South and return flow develops around the
offshore high.  Given better heating into the mid 80s to near 90, a
thermally enhanced Piedmont trough should develop, but moisture
return will will be slow with PW remaining below one inch, and a mid-
level subsident cap will stifle any destabilization or convection.

Some mid-clouds may drift in from the west late Wednesday night as
disturbances emanating from Central Plains convection start to
encroach on the region.  Otherwise, another mostly clear night and
lows in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...

The pattern aloft this period will be characterized by a western
CONUS trough and an a ridge from near Bermuda to Ontario/Quebec.
At the base of/beneath the eastern ridge, southern stream energy --
the lead of which is now crossing the lower-middle MS Valley-- will
help re-develop a mid to upper-level low INVOF the Bahamas during
the next couple of days. A shear axis, or weakness between sub-
tropical ridge centers near Bermuda, and across much of the Gulf of
Mexico and north-central Mexico, will extend north from the low over
the Bahamas, into the southeastern U.S.

The trend in model guidance in the past 24 hours has been toward a
more pronounced surface reflection in association with the Bahamas
low, which subsequently would get steered --at the base of the sub-
tropical ridge near Bermuda-- toward the southeast U.S. coast this
weekend.

Thu-Fri: Subsidence in association with the sub-tropical ridge near
Bermuda, along with the absence of lifting mechanisms and incomplete
modification of the initially cool and dry continental air mass over
the eastern U.S., will help suppress deep convection over central NC
late this week.

Sat-Mon: There remains a high degree of uncertainty in the details,
but the overwhelming trend toward a more substantial influence from
the aforementioned low pressure near the southeast U.S coast
suggests we are likely to see an increase in clouds and
precipitation chances as the weekend wears on, some of which may
linger into early next week, as whatever becomes of the
aforementioned low pressure may get trapped beneath the higher
latitude ridging to the north. Thicknesses support temps slightly
above normal, though tempered by the increase in clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

An upper level low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pull away from
the region, with high pressure building in its wake.  VFR conditions
and a light northwesterly winds are expected to prevail today and
tonight.

Long term: VFR conditions should prevail through much of the week.
The chance of showers/storms and adverse aviation conditions will
increase over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KILM 241020
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
621 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region for the next several
days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area
releases its hold on low level winds...allowing high pressure to
bump into the area as heights aloft snap back into place. Late May
sunshine and residual H9-H8 moisture will allow cumulus formation
this afternoon and at best an isolated shower over interior Pender
county between 4-5 pm. A decent count on sunshine minutes today and
maximums approaching near to slightly below normal for late May.
Fair this evening in low level return wind flow coupled with good
radiational heat escape under mostly clear skies...will result
minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets
flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s
across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling.
Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on
showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place
for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will
limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite
high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the
southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in
developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF
recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in
agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off
the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this
feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range
guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level
ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend.

Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears
there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the
southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the
resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily
showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will
keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little
above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...Any patchy light fog will be out of here shortly after
TAF issuance. Upper low is pulling away but still may have enough
influence to produce CU this afternoon...mainly from 15-21Z. No
precip is expected...but could not rule out isolated convection over
the extreme northeast portion of the CWA. Tonight...mainly clear
skies with little or no fog expected due to moderate southwest flow
aloft.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area
releases its hold on low level winds...allowing marine winds to
become SW this afternoon...up to 15 kt in the late afternoon as
the sea breeze adds a few knots...resuming SW 10 kt tonight. Seas
2 ft every 9 seconds with light wind chop so very manageable and
no TSTMS or marine weather hazards expected through daybreak Wed.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this
period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea
heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18
kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but
overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look
out fish.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential
low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce
southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for
Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with
speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an
increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri
morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for
higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late
in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 240722
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
322 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region for the next several
days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area
releases its hold on low level winds...allowing high pressure to
bump into the area as heights aloft snap back into place. Late May
sunshine and residual H9-H8 moisture will allow cumulus formation
this afternoon and at best an isolated shower over interior Pender
county between 4-5 pm. A decent count on sunshine minutes today and
maximums approaching near to slightly below normal for late May.
Fair this evening in low level return wind flow coupled with good
radiational heat escape under mostly clear skies...will result
minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets
flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s
across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling.
Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on
showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place
for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will
limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite
high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the
southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in
developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF
recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in
agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off
the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this
feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range
guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level
ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an
increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend.

Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears
there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the
southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the
resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily
showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will
keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little
above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 06Z...Patchy MVFR mist/fog til 12z then VFR through the
valid TAF cycle. Light to calm winds will become W-SW today
4-8 kt. Coastal terminal can expected 20012kt between 18z-22z
due to the sea breeze influence. Winds light to calm aft 1z-2z.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area
releases its hold on low level winds...allowing marine winds to
become SW this afternoon...up to 15 kt in the late afternoon as
the sea breeze adds a few knots...resuming SW 10 kt tonight. Seas
2 ft every 9 seconds with light wind chop so very manageable and
no TSTMS or marine weather hazards expected through daybreak Wed.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this
period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea
heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18
kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but
overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look
out fish.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential
low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce
southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for
Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with
speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an
increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri
morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for
higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late
in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN/MJC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 240502
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
102 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will gradually move northeast rest of tonight
and Tuesday. High pressure will build in and influence the weather
through the weekend with above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...Only minor changes on update to init t/td.
Prev Disc...A cut off upper low will move offshore overnight. High
pressure will begin to build into the area with winds decoupling.
Therefore expecting clear and calm conditions for the remainder of
the overnight. This will allow for radiational cooling and temps
to drop into the low 50s inland to mid 50s along the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...A beautiful day in store as high pressure
builds into the area from the west and the upper level trough
exits the east coast. This will provide west winds and rebounding
temperatures under sunny skies. Highs will reach around 80 inland
to mid 70s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...The models remain in good agreement with
pattern change during period as upper low will move out Tuesday
night followed by ridging surface and aloft into the weekend.
Late in the weekend/early next week a subtropical low could form
in the western Atlantic and bring some moisture into the area.

Tuesday night: The upper low will finally lift out to the NE and
away from the region with heights beginning to rise and the low
level flow becoming westerly, resulting in a warming and drying
atmosphere. Surface high pressure building in from the west will
move to the south Tuesday night as surface low moves out to NE.
Milder low temperatures are expected Tuesday night with lows in
the 60s.

Wednesday through Monday: Surface high pressure will persist over
the the Atlantic and extend into NC from mid week into early next
week producing a SW flow of warm/humid air across the area
through the period. Persistent upper ridging will limit forcing
and thus precipitation chances but instability will be sufficient
to support isolated mainly diurnal showers/storms each day. Highs
are expected in the mid to upper 80s inland to around 80 along the
coast and lows in the mid 60s inland/upper 60s coast.

There are signals in the models that a subtropical low/trough of
low pressure could form in the Caribbean late in the weekend and
approach the southeast coast early next week. This would result
in a weakness in the upper ridge and allow for better chances for
precipitation. Right now the GFS model solution of a
stronger/faster and more northward system is being discounted in
favor of a weaker/slower/more southern one. To account for this
will raise pops to low chances Monday and continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...Some isolated radiational fog at PGV earlier
however not much fog anticipated given a drier airmass moving
in. Clouds will erode as the low pressure over the region starts
to track eastward. Clear and calm tonight. Light west winds
tomorrow under sunny skies.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Ridging surface and aloft is expected to
prevail across the region through the period limiting
precipitation chances and producing a drier regime leading to
predominant VFR conditions outside any isolated diurnal convection
or brief early morning fog patches.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...Will drop SCA on update as seas have
subsided below 6 feet across the northern and central coastal
waters. An upper level trough will continue to move east off the
mid-Atlantic coast through the period with a weak sfc low moving
further out to sea. Seas are 2-5 feet at present. Expect very
nice boating conditions today with west winds 10-15 kts and seas
2 to 4 feet.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...After a transition period Tuesday night,
A Bermuda high surface pressure pattern will develop and persist
over the Atlantic the rest of the period. Improved boating
conditions are expected with mainly SW winds 5 to 15 KT and seas
2-4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/LEP
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JME/HSA/LEP
MARINE...JAC/JME/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240003
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
803 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will pull away from central NC
tonight and Tuesday. A strong upper level ridge will build over
the Southeast through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 325 PM Monday...

Will maintain a threat of scattered showers and isolated thunder
across the northeast half of central NC through early evening then
dwindle PoPs to less than 15 percent across the entire CWA after 04Z.

Pesky upper level low has begun push to the east-northeast off the
northern coast of NC at mid-afternoon. Spokes of vorticity pivoting
this feature will trigger scattered showers, mainly to the north-
northeast of Raleigh. Any thunder that occurs will be isolated, and
latest convective parameters, may not occur at all.

Models in general agreement that the bulk of the showers will
dissipate around sunset though a few showers may persist over the
northern coastal plain/northeast piedmont in vicinity of one last
vorticity axis. As the low pulls farther away, subsidence will aid
to diminish cloud coverage southwest-northeast this evening.

Min temps comparable to past few nights. Overnight temps generally
in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/...
As of 325 PM Monday...

Upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will begin to expand
northeast into the southeast U.S. Tuesday, in the wake of the
departing low. Rising heights/associated subsidence will suppress
cloud growth depth, resulting in scattered flat cumulus in the
afternoon. Late May sun will aid to warm temps to near or above 80
for the first time since May 14th for many locations.  High pressure
at the surface and aloft will continue to strengthen over our region
Tuesday night. Under clear skies and a light or calm wind regime,
min temps by early Wednesday will average in the upper 50s to around
60.


&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

Wed-Fri: Warm and mainly dry. The mid level pattern will feature
longwave troughing over the western CONUS with ridging in the east,
albeit with a weakness aloft which will extend from a weak low over
the central Bahamas northwestward across SW NC. At the surface,
Bermuda-centered high pressure will ridge narrowly westward across
the Southeast, yielding a light low level flow with minimal moisture
influx. The above normal heights aloft and resulting subsidence,
along with the absence of lift mechanisms and the lack of a good
moisture source, will help suppress deep convection over central NC.
While the aforementioned weakness in heights aloft to our SW may
lead to scattered afternoon storms over the higher terrain, the
steering flow pattern does not favor movement of any such convection
into our area. Thickness will be well above normal, supporting highs
each day in the mid 80s to around 90 (Thu appears likely to be the
warmest of these days) with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

Sat-Mon: Lots of uncertainty in the details, although guidance
continues to favor temps staying slight above normal through the
upcoming holiday weekend, but with an increasing chance of
showers/storms by Sun/Mon. The western end of the surface ridge axis
will pivot northward (following the strengthening of the Atlantic
mid level ridge extending into the mid Atlantic region), and this
will allow a long-fetch southeasterly flow to stream increasing
amounts of moisture into the Southeast. Meanwhile, the Bahamas mid
level low begins to drift to the NW into the height weakness toward
the Southeast states, and model solutions are converging toward some
similarity at the surface, showing either an inverted trough or low
tracking northwesterly toward the Southeast coast. It is far too
early to say whether or not this feature might have tropical or
subtropical characteristics, but regardless, we are still likely to
see an increase in clouds and precip chances as mid level heights
fall and moisture increases and deepens through the low levels.
Thicknesses support temps slightly above normal, tempered by
the increase in clouds. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 800 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions across the area this evening as
rain showers have tapered off and dewpoints are starting to dive
into the lower 50s across the area. Therefore have high confidence
of VFR conditions maintaining through the TAF period. Winds will be
light and variable tonight and then obtain more of a westerly
direction on Tuesday at 5-10 kts. A few clouds in the 3-5 kft range
will prevail on Tuesday but overall mostly clear skies expected.

Long term: VFR conditions should prevail through much of the
extended until Thursday night into Friday when rain becomes more of
a threat in the NW Piedmont.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Ellis




000
FXUS62 KILM 232339
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
739 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will move slowly away from the Carolinas tonight with
a few showers and storms possible through nightfall. High pressure
will build across the region on Tuesday...and then move offshore
as a Bermuda high through the end of the week. This will bring
above normal temperatures with ample sunshine through Friday. More
unsettled weather is possible this coming weekend as a trough
approaches the coast from the Bahamas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 pm Monday...Will remove POPs by mid-evening. Waning
insolation and resulting instability will be the demise of any
additional convective development quickly after sunset. This
trend already illustrated by a mosaic of 88ds across the
Carolinas. The diurnal cu field will also dissipate, leaving
a mostly clear or partly cloudy worse case from any altocu clouds
as displayed by various model rh time heights for locations across
the FA. See no need to tweak overnight temps at this time.

Previous......................................................
As of 330 PM Monday...Widespread field of stratocu covering most
of forecast area producing mostly cloudy skies...with only a few
breaks of sunshine. Water vapor imagery still showing upper low
digging down across NC with clouds and showers wrapping down
around the back end toward the area. With such cool 500 mb temps
down close to -25c this morning...the steep lapse rates helped
with rapid cu development by late this morning. The clouds have
slowed the rise in temps...basically reaching the mid 60s to
around 70 most places.

The southern extent of heavier showers was just north of local
forecast area wrapping around the deep NW flow. Expect showers to
be scattered mainly along northern portion of forecast area. Do
not expect much coverage overall with best lift closer to the
coast and farther north toward best energy wrapping around the
upper low. The temps aloft will actually begin to warm through
this evening with model soundings showing a spike right around
h70 making it bit harder to get any deep convection. Another
limiting factor will be the dry air and dewpoint temps right
around 50. Will most likely need to tap into some higher dewpoint
air from sea breeze front which will be almost non-existent due
to off shore flow and cool air temps which were running close to
the sea temps. The cool air aloft and low WBZ height will allow
for any deeper shwrs/tstms to produce some small hail. SPC
continues to show general thunder but has shrunken the area down
to include only NC and north into mid atlantic states. As of 3 pm,
lightning was limited from VA northward.

Look for convection to build over NC and drop into our area from
the N-NW and some localized development over SE NC and NE SC
between 17z and 00z before a diminishing trend. Expect clearing
with cool air in place for tonight leading to overnight lows in
the 50s once again except along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...A quiet mid week period with drying and
warming trend as pesky upper low lifts off to the northeast and
ridge builds in. Overall high pressure begins to dominate with
center in the off shore waters of the southeast, north of
bahamas. The light southerly return flow combined with rising h5
heights will allow for temps to soar into the 80s with plenty of
May sunshine both days. Tuesday should see close to 30 degree
temp rises after a cool start. By Wednesday, some locations may
reach 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Very warm summertime conditions forecast
for the end of the week and the weekend as Bermuda high spins
offshore and mid-level ridging blossoms from the Gulf
Coast...moves overhead...and expands across the southeast. This is
a pattern that suggests above normal temperatures...but also
increasing humidity on the SW return surface flow. However...the
ridging aloft will keep the mid-level dry thanks to
subsidence...so diurnal convection will be isolated at best...and
other than Thursday thanks to a weak impulse moving overhead...the
Thu-Sat timeframe will be dry with temps approaching 90
inland...low/mid 80s closer to the coast.

Uncertainty increases for the weekend and into the Memorial Day
holiday. The surface and mid-level ridge drift north as a weakness
develops beneath it. Within this weakness a trough of low pressure
is progged to move out of the Bahamas and drift slowly towards the
southeast coast. The GFS has been incredibly consistent with this
feature...despite large fluctuations in its position and
intensity...while the ECM/CMC...which have been showing a weak
trough...have jumped on board with a more significant system with
the 12z suite today as well. GFS Ensembles are almost entirely in
agreement with the op-run also. While it is far too early to mention
any actual low pressure affecting the area...there is increasing
confidence that deepening easterly flow connected to the tropics
will create more unsettled weather this weekend and into Monday.
Have trimmed highs a bit for Sun/Mon while also ramping up precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...Showers resulting from instability induced by dayime
heating and the cool pool associated with the upper level low over
the region are winding down as the sun sets.  Outside of a little
MVFR fog, mainly at inland terminals, conditions should
be VFR through the valid TAF period.  Light north to northwest
winds tonight will become southwest at 5 to 10 KT during the day
Tuesday.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 pm Monday...Looking at mainly offshore winds tonight.
The sfc pg will remain relatively relaxed, yielding around 10 kt.
Except 10 to 15 kt north of Cape Fear due to the effects from the
departing upper low. Significant seas will run around 2
ft...except 2 to 3 ft from Cape Fear northward. Wind driven waves
will remain a low input to the overall significant seas.
Basically, a 1 to occasional 2 foot ese ground swell at 8 to 9
second periods will provide the sig. seas input.

Previous........................................................
As of 330 PM Monday...Northwest, offshore flow and very weak sea
breeze, if any, will produce fairly glassy seas in the near shore
waters through tonight. The water temps were running near the air
temps this aftn and therefore do not expect any chop. The only
gusts you may experience would come from an isolated passing
shower.

Winds will begin to slowly shift around from NW to W overnight
but will remain very light as high pressure begins to take hold.
Overall expect benign seas under 3 ft.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Quiet marine conditions expected through
mid week as high pressure takes residence over the off shore
waters off the southeast coast. Overall expect a light southerly
return flow to set up. Near shore seas will experience some chop
in the afternoons due to a strong sea breeze setting up as temps
warm well into the 80s...more typical May conditions. Seas will
generally be 3 ft or less.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...S winds around Bermuda high pressure will
be predominant Thu/Fri before winds back more to the E/SE late in
the period. Gradient around the offshore high remains weak...so
winds Thu/Fri will be 10 kts or less...and the combination of
these light winds and a 2ft/8sec SE swell will drive wave heights
of 1-2 ft Thu...2-3 ft Friday. Late Friday and Saturday confidence
decreases as a wave of low pressure may emerge from the Bahamas
and approach the waters. This will drive increasing easterly winds
and wave heights building to 3-4 ft...possibly higher if a longer
period swell develops.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN




000
FXUS62 KMHX 232310
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
710 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will gradually move northeast tonight and
Tuesday. High pressure will build in and influence the weather
through the weekend with above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 7 PM Monday...Showers diminishing in coverage and will
likely dissipate completely over the next few hours. Will keep
mention of isolated showers through 10 pm, then dry thereafter. No
change in low temps.

Prev Disc...A cut off upper low will move offshore overnight.
High pressure will begin to build into the area with winds
decoupling. Therefore expecting clear and calm conditions for the
remainder of the overnight. This will allow for radiational
cooling and temps to drop into the low 50s inland to mid 50s along
the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...A beautiful day in store as high pressure
builds into the area from the west and the upper level trough
exits the east coast. This will provide west winds and rebounding
temperatures under sunny skies. Highs will reach around 80 inland
to mid 70s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...The models remain in good agreement with
pattern change during period as upper low will move out Tuesday
night followed by ridging surface and aloft into the weekend.
Late in the weekend/early next week a subtropical low could form
in the western Atlantic and bring some moisture into the area.

Tuesday night: The upper low will finally lift out to the NE and
away from the region with heights beginning to rise and the low
level flow becoming westerly, resulting in a warming and drying
atmosphere. Surface high pressure building in from the west will
move to the south Tuesday night as surface low moves out to NE.
Milder low temperatures are expected Tuesday night with lows in
the 60s.

Wednesday through Monday: Surface high pressure will persist over
the the Atlantic and extend into NC from mid week into early next
week producing a SW flow of warm/humid air across the area
through the period. Persistent upper ridging will limit forcing
and thus precipitation chances but instability will be sufficient
to support isolated mainly diurnal showers/storms each day. Highs
are expected in the mid to upper 80s inland to around 80 along the
coast and lows in the mid 60s inland/upper 60s coast.

There are signals in the models that a subtropical low/trough of
low pressure could form in the Caribbean late in the weekend and
approach the southeast coast early next week. This would result
in a weakness in the upper ridge and allow for better chances for
precipitation. Right now the GFS model solution of a
stronger/faster and more northward system is being discounted in
favor of a weaker/slower/more southern one. To account for this
will raise pops to low chances Monday and continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 7 PM Monday...Isolated showers possible over next few hours,
but then will dissipate completely. Clouds will erode as the low
pressure over the region starts to track eastward. Clear and calm
tonight. Fog not anticipated given a drier airmass moving in.
Light west winds tomorrow under sunny skies.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Ridging surface and aloft is expected to
prevail across the region through the period limiting
precipitation chances and producing a drier regime leading to
predominant VFR conditions outside any isolated diurnal convection
or brief early morning fog patches.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 7 PM Monday...An upper level trough will continue to move
east off the mid-Atlantic coast through the period with a weak sfc
low moving further out to sea. Seas are running 3-6 feet at
present but will diminish after midnight. No changes to current
Small Craft Advisories. Conditions should improve tonight as the
gradient relaxes and seas subside. Expect very pleasant boating
conditions tomorrow with west winds 10-15 kts and seas 2 to 4
feet.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...After a transition period Tuesday night,
A Bermuda high surface pressure pattern will develop and persist
over the Atlantic the rest of the period. Improved boating
conditions are expected with mainly SW winds 5 to 15 KT and seas
2-4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JME/LEP
NEAR TERM...HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...HSA/LEP/JME
MARINE...HSA/LEP/JME




000
FXUS62 KILM 231733
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
133 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will move across the eastern Carolinas today with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the evening.
The low will move offshore Tuesday as high pressure builds over
the region. Drier weather combined with above normal temperatures
will follow mid week into next weekend as an upper ridge expands
from the Gulf states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Monday...Water vapor imagery still showing upper low
digging down across NC with clouds and showers wrapping down
around the back end toward the area. With such cool 500 mb temps
down close to -25c this morning...the steep lapse rates helped
with rapid cu development by late this morning. The clouds have
slowed the rise in temps...still in the mid 60s over NC late this
morning and close to 70 over most of NE SC. Expect showers to be
scattered mainly across NC earlier in the aftn but then focused
mainly along sea breeze convergence from the tip of Cape Fear down
to Georgetown. Do not expect much coverage overall with best lift closer
to the coast and farther north toward best energy wrapping around
the upper low. The temps aloft will actually begin to warm this
aftn and model soundings show some warming right around h70 making
it bit harder to get any deep convection. Another limiting factor
will be the dry air with dewpoint temps right around 50 will most
likely need to tap into some higher dewpoint air from sea breeze
front. The NW flow should keep the sea breeze from penetrating
too far inland. The cool air aloft and low WBZ height will allow
for any deeper shwrs/tstms to develop hail.

Overall expect Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms accompanied by hail expected this afternoon...as an
impulse discernible in vapor animations over central Virginia
snared in the cold pool circulation aloft drops S-SE across SE NC
and very NE SC. SPC maintains only `general` thunder status here
today since any strong to severe convection will remain isolated
in scope and farther north...yet non-zero in any one locality.
Interestingly...although less coverage is expected over NE SC
compared to SE NC this afternoon...the stronger insolation could
result in more robust towers over NE SC...so no one is entirely
out of the `hail woods`. Look for convection to build over NC and
drop across and develop over SE NC and NE SC between 17z and 00z
before a diminishing trend.

Expect clearing and cool air in place for tonight leading to
overnight lows in the 50s once again except along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Drying and warming trends the primary caption
this period as the upper circulating chilled pool lifts NNE away
from the area and loosens its hold. Subsequent height rises and
thickness surges will bring above normal temperatures by
Wednesday...with some locations nearing or reaching 90...middle
and upper 80s closer to the coast as the sea breeze circulation
fully awakens. The coolest portion of this period daybreak Tuesday
with readings entrenched well into the cooling 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Surface and mid level ridging in place through
the period will work to keep the region mostly rain free. Mid level
moisture emanating from southern TX mid-week will move across the
top of the ridge and over the east coast. The increased moisture
aloft combined with low level return flow around west side of
Bermuda High may allow for some isolated diurnal convection Thu and
Fri. Mid level ridge builds up the east coast Sat and Sun decreasing
moisture aloft but low level southeast flow will lead to increasing
boundary layer moisture. So while cloud cover may be on the increase
Sat and Sun precip chances may be limited by the dry air aloft.
Temperatures will run above climo through the period.

There is one potential fly in the ointment Sun. The GFS has
continued to show a weak area of low pressure emerging from the
Bahamas late in the week. The has been very little consistency with
the location, timing, or strength of the low but it has been
consistently present. Currently the CMC and ECMWF do not depict this
feature and for now the low is being discounted. It is worth noting
that the GFS sends a slug of tropical moisture into the Carolinas
late in the weekend with an increase in cloud cover and precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...The upper level low is still impacting the area with
scattered to broken ceilings this afternoon. Expect a few showers
as well but not enough coverage to warrant in tafs. Overall still
expect vfr conditions through the period with clearing skies
tonight. I did add a little mvfr fog for inland sites as winds
will back off and guidance shows dewpoint depressions near zero
for a few hours.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Monday...Offshore flow today will keep seas behaved
but highest outer portion...while very manageable marine
conditions prevail inshore. Showers and a few TSTMS will move off
land and across the waters in the afternoon to early evening and
hail may fall in the stronger convection. Sea spectrum comprised
of SE wave 2-3 FT every 9-10 seconds and a light to moderate N-NW
chop highest outer waters. Any storms will move from NW to SE and
could produce gusts in excess of 35 kt. Wind-speeds will ease
overnight as a surface low offshore of the outer banks jogs N and
weakens. Overall wave heights 2-4 feet...highest outer ribbon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...The main marine headline this period is a
resumption back to normal marine winds typical of late May...SW
10-20 kt and seas essentially 2-3 feet. Shower and storm coverage
will have ended for the 0-20 NM waters by Tuesday and holding
through Wednesday. Dominant wave period of around 9 seconds are
expected, so wave steepness will remain low aside from light and
occasionally moderate S-SSW chop as the afternoon sea breeze
matures.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Bermuda High will be the dominant feature
through the period with south to southwest flow across the waters.
Gradient will keep speeds on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range
with the only exception being the increase in speeds along the
coast due to the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will remain around 2
ft. &&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 231726
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
126 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will be over the area today and then gradually
move northeast tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will build in
and influence the weather through late week with above normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 945 AM Monday...No major changes to this update. Stratus is
moving in across Eastern NC, as a mid/upper level low sinks south
into our area. So anticipate clouds to continue to build in,
northwest to southeast. Also noted some returns on radar moving in
across the northern tier and feel this will continue to fill in
through the morning hours. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

Previous Discussion...The upper level low will sink south into
Eastern NC with another day of clouds and precipitation,
especially across the northern tier. While sufficient cloud cover
is expected, any destabilization at the sfc will lead to
thunderstorm development. With cold air aloft, steep lapse rates
may lead to possible hail with these heavier
showers/thunderstorms. Cool north winds will also continue. Mostly
cloudy skies and scattered precipitation will keep temperatures
from rising much above 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...The closed upper low will finally lift out
and away from the region tonight. Will continue slight chance
evening pops tonight with residual moisture and cyclonic flow.
Lows will be in the 50s with light nw winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...No significant changes to previous forecast
with this issuance. Models remain in good agreement with pattern
change during period as upper low will move out Tuesday followed
by ridging surface and aloft rest of week. Ridging over area may
be pinched by weak low pressure development well south of area
next weekend.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: The upper low will finally lift
out to NE and away from the region with heights beginning to rise
and the low level flow becoming westerly, resulting in a warming
and drying atmosphere. Surface high pressure building in from the
west will move to the south late Tuesday and Tuesday night as
surface low moves out to NE. Associated lower dewpoints and weak
subsidence aloft should limit precip chances Tuesday, however,
there are still signals in the models supporting the chance for
isolated/widely scattered diurnal showers/storms along
differential heating boundaries. High temps will be in the mid
70s beaches to around 80 degrees inland. Milder temperatures are
expected Tuesday night with lows in the 60s.

Wednesday through Sunday: Surface high pressure will persist over
the the Atlantic and extend into NC from mid week into the weekend
producing a SW flow of warm/humid air across the area through the
period. Persistent upper ridging will limit forcing and thus
precipitation chances but instability will be sufficient to
support isolated mainly diurnal showers/storms each day. Highs are
expected in the mid to upper 80s inland to around 80 along the
coast and lows in the mid 60s inland/upper 60s coast.

GFS continues to indicate subtropical surface low development
under mid-level weakness well south of area late weekend, but
appears to be an overdone outlier. Other models do indicate mid-
level weakness over Bahamas into Caribbean leading to pinched off
ridge over eastern NC which is preferred solution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 115 PM Monday...Low and mid level clouds continue to work
into the area from the north as an upper level low sinks south.
Light rain is also traversing the area and should only provide
brief reduced vsbys as they cross. Expect the coverage to dwindle
as we approach sunset with clouds also eroding as the low starts
to track eastward. North to northwest winds continue through the
day, around 5 to 8 knots. Clear and calm tonight. Fog not
anticipated given a drier airmass moving in. Light west winds
tomorrow under sunny skies.

Winds will be light n-nw through the
period. Mainly MVFR CIGS expected today as stubborn upper low
remains in place over the region with light northerly flow. Fog
should be confined to the northern OBX. Mainly MVFR ceilings
expected through much of day as showers/thunderstorms develop by
the afternoon. isolated convection may persist through the evening
hours with a return to VFR CIGs. Fog may re-develop across the
northern OBX late tonight.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Ridging surface and aloft is expected to
prevail across the region through the period limiting
precipitation chances and producing a drier regime leading to
predominant VFR conditions outside any isolated diurnal convection
or brief early morning fog patches.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 945 AM Monday...Seas are taking a bit longer to build as the
sfc low did not deepen as much as previously anticipated. Still
expecting the seas to build, but possibly more to 4 to 6 feet
across the outer waters (north/central). Currently, seas are 3 to
4 feet with NW wind 10-20kts.

Previous Discussion...Currently n-nw winds 10-15 kt and seas 3-4
ft. An upper level low acrs the mid-Atlantic region will sink
south into Eastern NC today. Surface low off the NE OBX will
strengthen with northerly winds increasing to 10-20 knots. Seas
will build in response to 4-7 feet across the central and northern
waters continuing through late tonight. Winds become nw-n tonight
and diminish to 10-15 knots as the surface low moves away allowing
seas to subside to 5 feet or less late tonight. Continue SCA for
the waters from Ocracoke north through 06Z Tuesday night.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 300 AM Monday...After a transition period Tuesday and
Tuesday night, Bermuda-type high pressure pattern will develop and
persist over the Atlantic rest of the period. Improved boating
conditions expected with mainly SW wind 5 to 15 KT and seas 2-4
FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/LEP
MARINE...JAC/JBM/LEP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 231725
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
125 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move across the area today,
before tracking along the East Coast and away from the region on
Tuesday.  A strong upper level ridge will build over the Southeast
through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1125 AM Monday...

Minor tweaks made to the near term forecast. Have adjusted PoPs up
over the northeast third of the CWA to account for patchy light rain
through mid day/early afternoon. Otherwise expect scattered showers
and a thunderstorm or two across the region from mid afternoon
through sunset.

Pesky upper level low has begun push to the east-northeast and on
track to exit our region by late in the day and well offshore
tonight. Spokes of vorticity will continue to pivot around this
feature with one axis currently working its way across our northern
counties. This feature will continue to progress south-southeast,
possibly triggering additional shower development across the
southern counties by mid afternoon.

While a thunderstorm possible, parameters are not quite there for
the potential for severe storms. The shear is too weak and
instability even weaker.

Temperatures this afternoon highly dependent upon extent of cloud
coverage and showers. Where clouds are thickest/more prominent and
potential for rain highest (ne third), temperatures in the 60s will
be the rule. Where peeks of sunshine occur, temperatures should warm
into the 70-75 degree range. Expect the warmest temperatures in the
far south and southwest where mixture of sun/clouds expected. -WSS

Height rise aloft and high pressure building in from the west will
rapidly diminish precip coverage this evening, while skies slowly
clear behind the departing upper trough. Lows in the low/mid 50s. -22

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/...
As of 340 AM Monday...

While the center of the mid/upper-level low will be in the process
of lifting up the coast of the northern Middle Atlantic and
Northeast...a couple of low amplitude impulses are forecast to wrap,
in NW flow on the WSW periphery of the departing low, across eastern
VA/NC through early-mid afternoon Tue. Residually steep mid-level
lapse rates /6 to 6.5 C/KM/ over the NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain,
and diurnal heating into the lower 80s, will contribute to perhaps a
couple of hundred J/KG of MLCAPE there, where an isolated
shower/sprinkle (POP of only 10-15 %) may occur before following
strong height rises aloft and an associated subsidence inversion
overspread the region.

One more night in the 50s, to around 60 degrees, is expected in
continued height rises in NW flow aloft Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

Increasingly hot, but mainly dry.

Within a relatively highly amplified flow pattern consisting of a
western CONUS trough and eastern CONUS ridge, a couple of low
amplitude southern stream perturbations will migrate across the
Middle Atlantic late Wed-Fri. These perturbations will get trapped
and stretched in a deformation zone aloft between the center of a
couple of sub-tropical highs over Mexico and offshore the SE U.S
coast, and may contribute to the development of diurnal convection
across the Appalachians and/or along the sea breeze in coastal areas
during that time. While an associated shower or storm cannot
entirely be ruled out even over central NC, a lack of any more
appreciable focusing mechanism suggests that probability will be
low. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
mid-late week, with perhaps slightly cooler conditions owing to a
slightly onshore component to the low level flow, this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday through Saturday/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

Ceilings varying between MVFR across the northeast piedmont and the
coastal plain to low end VFR across the western and southern
piedmont will persist through sunset as energy rotating around an
upper level low over far northeast NC. As the atmosphere heats
up, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will blossom over
the region. The greatest coverage will occur between 20Z-00Z.
After 00Z, shower coverage will decrease. Later tonight, as
the low pulls farther away, skies will gradual clear, clearing
first over the western/southern piedmont and sandhills, and last in
the vicinity of KRWI.

Pockets of MVFR fog may occur early Tuesday morning. Otherwise,
high pressure will begin to exert its influence on our weather.
A prolonged period of VFR conditions is anticipated across central NC
Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 231522
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1125 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move across the area today,
before tracking along the East Coast and away from the region on
Tuesday.  A strong upper level ridge will build over the Southeast
through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1125 AM Monday...

Minor tweaks made to the near term forecast. Have adjusted PoPs up
over the northeast third of the CWA to account for patchy light rain
through mid day/early afternoon. Otherwise expect scattered showers
and a thunderstorm or two across the region from mid afternoon
through sunset.

Pesky upper level low has begun push to the east-northeast and on
track to exit our region by late in the day and well offshore
tonight. Spokes of vorticity will continue to pivot around this
feature with one axis currently working its way across our northern
counties. This feature will continue to progress south-southeast,
possibly triggering additional shower development across the
southern counties by mid afternoon.

While a thunderstorm possible, parameters are not quite there for
the potential for severe storms. The shear is too weak and
instability even weaker.

Temperatures this afternoon highly dependent upon extent of cloud
coverage and showers. Where clouds are thickest/more prominent and
potential for rain highest (ne third), temperatures in the 60s will
be the rule. Where peeks of sunshine occur, temperatures should warm
into the 70-75 degree range. Expect the warmest temperatures in the
far south and southwest where mixture of sun/clouds expected. -WSS

Height rise aloft and high pressure building in from the west will
rapidly diminish precip coverage this evening, while skies slowly
clear behind the departing upper trough. Lows in the low/mid 50s. -22

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/...
As of 340 AM Monday...

While the center of the mid/upper-level low will be in the process
of lifting up the coast of the northern Middle Atlantic and
Northeast...a couple of low amplitude impulses are forecast to wrap,
in NW flow on the WSW periphery of the departing low, across eastern
VA/NC through early-mid afternoon Tue. Residually steep mid-level
lapse rates /6 to 6.5 C/KM/ over the NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain,
and diurnal heating into the lower 80s, will contribute to perhaps a
couple of hundred J/KG of MLCAPE there, where an isolated
shower/sprinkle (POP of only 10-15 %) may occur before following
strong height rises aloft and an associated subsidence inversion
overspread the region.

One more night in the 50s, to around 60 degrees, is expected in
continued height rises in NW flow aloft Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

Increasingly hot, but mainly dry.

Within a relatively highly amplified flow pattern consisting of a
western CONUS trough and eastern CONUS ridge, a couple of low
amplitude southern stream perturbations will migrate across the
Middle Atlantic late Wed-Fri. These perturbations will get trapped
and stretched in a deformation zone aloft between the center of a
couple of sub-tropical highs over Mexico and offshore the SE U.S
coast, and may contribute to the development of diurnal convection
across the Appalachians and/or along the sea breeze in coastal areas
during that time. While an associated shower or storm cannot
entirely be ruled out even over central NC, a lack of any more
appreciable focusing mechanism suggests that probability will be
low. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
mid-late week, with perhaps slightly cooler conditions owing to a
slightly onshore component to the low level flow, this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday through Friday/...
As of 650 AM Monday...

The main aviation concern today is an area of low clouds moving
south out of VA early this morning, which will impact areas east of
KRDU through at least mid-morning.  MVFR ceilings are most likely at
KRWI, with a period of IFR and scattered showers possible. Showers
will be more isolated to the west, especially west of KRDU, where
cloud bases are more likely to be in the 3000-4000ft range.  An 8-
12kt northerly wind will prevail for much of the day, becoming light
and variable tonight as low pressure moves off the NC coast and VFR
conditions return areawide.

Long term: VFR conditions will be predominate this week as high
pressure builds over the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KMHX 231348
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
948 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will be over the area today and then gradually
move northeast tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will build in
and influence the weather through late week with above normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 945 AM Monday...No major changes to this update. Stratus is
moving in across Eastern NC, as a mid/upper level low sinks south
into our area. So anticipate clouds to continue to build in,
northwest to southeast. Also noted some returns on radar moving in
across the northern tier and feel this will continue to fill in
through the morning hours. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

Previous Discussion...The upper level low will sink south into
Eastern NC with another day of clouds and precipitation,
especially across the northern tier. While sufficient cloud cover
is expected, any destabilization at the sfc will lead to
thunderstorm development. With cold air aloft, steep lapse rates
may lead to possible hail with these heavier
showers/thunderstorms. Cool north winds will also continue. Mostly
cloudy skies and scattered precipitation will keep temperatures
from rising much above 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...The closed upper low will finally lift out
and away from the region tonight. Will continue slight chance
evening pops tonight with residual moisture and cyclonic flow.
Lows will be in the 50s with light nw winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...No significant changes to previous forecast
with this issuance. Models remain in good agreement with pattern
change during period as upper low will move out Tuesday followed
by ridging surface and aloft rest of week. Ridging over area may
be pinched by weak low pressure development well south of area
next weekend.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: The upper low will finally lift
out to NE and away from the region with heights beginning to rise
and the low level flow becoming westerly, resulting in a warming
and drying atmosphere. Surface high pressure building in from the
west will move to the south late Tuesday and Tuesday night as
surface low moves out to NE. Associated lower dewpoints and weak
subsidence aloft should limit precip chances Tuesday, however,
there are still signals in the models supporting the chance for
isolated/widely scattered diurnal showers/storms along
differential heating boundaries. High temps will be in the mid
70s beaches to around 80 degrees inland. Milder temperatures are
expected Tuesday night with lows in the 60s.

Wednesday through Sunday: Surface high pressure will persist over
the the Atlantic and extend into NC from mid week into the weekend
producing a SW flow of warm/humid air across the area through the
period. Persistent upper ridging will limit forcing and thus
precipitation chances but instability will be sufficient to
support isolated mainly diurnal showers/storms each day. Highs are
expected in the mid to upper 80s inland to around 80 along the
coast and lows in the mid 60s inland/upper 60s coast.

GFS continues to indicate subtropical surface low development
under mid-level weakness well south of area late weekend, but
appears to be an overdone outlier. Other models do indicate mid-
level weakness over Bahamas into Caribbean leading to pinched off
ridge over eastern NC which is preferred solution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Monday/...
As of 515 AM Monday...Winds will be light n-nw through the
period. Mainly MVFR CIGS expected today as stubborn upper low
remains in place over the region with light northerly flow. Fog
should be confined to the northern OBX. Mainly MVFR ceilings
expected through much of day as showers/thunderstorms develop by
the afternoon. isolated convection may persist through the evening
hours with a return to VFR CIGs. Fog may re-develop across the
northern OBX late tonight.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Ridging surface and aloft is expected to
prevail across the region through the period limiting
precipitation chances and producing a drier regime leading to
predominant VFR conditions outside any isolated diurnal convection
or brief early morning fog patches.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 945 AM Monday...Seas are taking a bit longer to build as the
sfc low did not deepen as much as previously anticipated. Still
expecting the seas to build, but possibly more to 4 to 6 feet
across the outer waters (north/central). Currently, seas are 3 to
4 feet with NW wind 10-20kts.

Previous Discussion...Currently n-nw winds 10-15 kt and seas 3-4
ft. An upper level low acrs the mid-Atlantic region will sink
south into Eastern NC today. Surface low off the NE OBX will
strengthen with northerly winds increasing to 10-20 knots. Seas
will build in response to 4-7 feet across the central and northern
waters continuing through late tonight. Winds become nw-n tonight
and diminish to 10-15 knots as the surface low moves away allowing
seas to subside to 5 feet or less late tonight. Continue SCA for
the waters from Ocracoke north through 06Z Tuesday night.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 300 AM Monday...After a transition period Tuesday and
Tuesday night, Bermuda-type high pressure pattern will develop and
persist over the Atlantic rest of the period. Improved boating
conditions expected with mainly SW wind 5 to 15 KT and seas 2-4
FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/JBM/LEP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move across the area today,
before tracking along the East Coast and away from the region on
Tuesday.  A strong upper level ridge will then build over the
Southeast through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 335 AM Monday...

An upper level low centered over south-central VA will continue to
move southeast over eastern NC this morning and then quickly
offshore today. The last in a series of disturbances rounding the
upper low is currently over eastern KY and will swing across th
Carolinas today. Some convection will be possible again, with higher
probability in the northern Coastal Plain as a slug of deeper
moisture drops south out of VA this morning, before height rises
strengthen in earnest behind the departing low this evening. Despite
moderately steep mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km within the
upper low, instability is projected to be weak, especially int he
northeast CWA given cloud cover and limited heating.  Deep layer
shear will generally be weak within the upper low, but 20-30kt
around the southern/western fringe of the CWA could support an
isolated strong storm capable of producing hail with the freezing
level down below 8k ft. Highs are expected to range from the
mid/upper 60s east, where clouds and the 850mb thermal trough will
have the most impact, to the lower 70s in the west.

Height rise aloft and high pressure building in from the west will
rapidly diminish precip coverage this evening, while skies slowly
clear behind the departing upper trough.  lows in the low/mid 50s.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/...
As of 340 AM Monday...

While the center of the mid/upper-level low will be in the process
of lifting up the coast of the northern Middle Atlantic and
Northeast...a couple of low amplitude impulses are forecast to wrap,
in NW flow on the WSW periphery of the departing low, across eastern
VA/NC through early-mid afternoon Tue. Residually steep mid-level
lapse rates /6 to 6.5 C/KM/ over the NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain,
and diurnal heating into the lower 80s, will contribute to perhaps a
couple of hundred J/KG of MLCAPE there, where an isolated
shower/sprinkle (POP of only 10-15 %) may occur before following
strong height rises aloft and an associated subsidence inversion
overspread the region.

One more night in the 50s, to around 60 degrees, is expected in
continued height rises in NW flow aloft Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

Increasingly hot, but mainly dry.

Within a relatively highly amplified flow pattern consisting of a
western CONUS trough and eastern CONUS ridge, a couple of low
amplitude southern stream perturbations will migrate across the
Middle Atlantic late Wed-Fri. These perturbations will get trapped
and stretched in a deformation zone aloft between the center of a
couple of sub-tropical highs over Mexico and offshore the SE U.S
coast, and may contribute to the development of diurnal convection
across the Appalachians and/or along the sea breeze in coastal areas
during that time. While an associated shower or storm cannot
entirely be ruled out even over central NC, a lack of any more
appreciable focusing mechanism suggests that probability will be
low. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
mid-late week, with perhaps slightly cooler conditions owing to a
slightly onshore component to the low level flow, this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/...
As of 135 AM Monday...

The main aviation concern today is an area of low clouds moving
south out of VA early this morning, which will impact areas east of
KRDU through at least mid-morning.  MVFR ceilings are most likely at
KRWI, with a period of IFR and scattered showers after 12z. Showers
will be more isolated to the west, especially west of KRDU, where
cloud bases are more likely to be in the 3000-4000ft range.  An 8-
12kt northerly wind will prevail for much of the day, becoming light
and variable tonight as low pressure moves off the NC coast and VFR
conditions return areawide.

Long term: VFR conditions will be predominate this week as high
pressure builds over the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KMHX 230737
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
337 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will be over the area today and then gradually
move northeast tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will build in
and influence the weather through late week with above normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...The upper level low will sink south into
Eastern NC with another day of clouds and precipitation,
especially across the northern tier. While sufficient cloud cover
is expected, any destabilization at the sfc will lead to
thunderstorm development. With cold air aloft, steep lapse rates
may lead to possible hail with these heavier showers/thunderstorms.
Cool north winds will also continue. Mostly cloudy skies and
scattered precipitation will keep temperatures from rising much
above 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...The closed upper low will finally lift out
and away from the region tonight. Will continue slight chance
evening pops tonight with residual moisture and cyclonic flow.
Lows will be in the 50s with light nw winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...No significant changes to previous forecast
with this issuance. Models remain in good agreement with pattern
change during period as upper low will move out Tuesday followed
by ridging surface and aloft rest of week. Ridging over area may
be pinched by weak low pressure developemtn well south of area
next weekend.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: The upper low will finally lift
out to NE and away from the region with heights beginning to rise
and the low level flow becoming westerly, resulting in a warming
and drying atmosphere. Surface high pressure building in from the
west will move to the south late Tuesday and Tuesday night as
surface low moves out to NE. Associated lower dewpoints and weak
subsidence aloft should limit precip chances Tuesday, however,
there are still signals in the models supporting the chance for
isolated/widely scattered diurnal showers/storms along
differential heating boundaries. High temps will be in the mid
70s beaches to around 80 degrees inland. Milder temperatures are
expected Tuesday night with lows in the 60s.

Wednesday through Sunday: Surface high pressure will persist over
the the Atlantic and extend into NC from mid week into the weekend
producing a SW flow of warm/humid air across the area through the
period. Persistent upper ridging will limit forcing and thus
precipitation chances but instability will be sufficient to
support isolated mainly diurnal showers/storms each day. Highs are
expected in the mid to upper 80s inland to around 80 along the
coast and lows in the mid 60s inland/upper 60s coast.

GFS continues to indicate subtropical surface low development
under mid-level weakness well south of area late weekend, but
appears to be an overdone outlier. Other models do indicate mid-
level weakness over Bahamas into Carribean leading to pinched off
ridge over eastern NC which is preferred solution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Monday/...
As of 230 AM Monday...Winds will be light n-nw through the
period. IFR CIGS expected as stubborn upper low remains in place
over the region with light northerly flow. Fog should be confined
to the northern OBX. IFR cigs will lift around 14z with MVFR
ceilings expected through much of day as showers/thunderstorms
develop by the afternoon. isolated convection may persist through
the evening hours with a return to VFR CIGs. Fog may re-develop
across the northern OBX late tonight.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Ridging surface and aloft is expected to
prevail across the region through the period limiting
precipitation chances and producing a drier regime leading to
predominant VFR conditions outside any isolated diurnal convection
or brief early morning fog patches.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 230 AM Monday...An upper level low acrs the mid-Atlantic
region will sink south into Eastern NC today. Surface low off the
NE OBX will strengthen with northerly winds increasing to 10-20
knots today. Seas will build in response to 4-7 feet across the
central and northern waters continuing through at least the
evening hours tonight. Winds become nw-n tonight and diminish to
10-15 knots as the surface low moves away allowing seas to subside
to 5 feet or less. Continue SCA for the waters from Ocracoke
north through 06Z Tuesday night.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 300 AM Monday...After a transition period Tuesday and
Tuesday night, Bermuda-type high pressure pattern will develop and
persist over the Atlantic rest of the period. Improved boating
conditions expected with mainly SW wind 5 to 15 KT and seas 2-4
FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/JBM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230736
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move across the area today,
before tracking along the East Coast and away from the region on
Tuesday.  A strong upper level ridge will then build over the
Southeast through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 335 AM Monday...

An upper level low centered over south-central VA will continue to
move southeast over eastern NC this morning and then quickly
offshore today. The last in a series of disturbances rounding the
upper low is currently over eastern KY and will swing across th
Carolinas today. Some convection will be possible again, with higher
probability in the northern Coastal Plain as a slug of deeper
moisture drops south out of VA this morning, before height rises
strengthen in earnest behind the departing low this evening. Despite
moderately steep mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km within the
upper low, instability is projected to be weak, especially int he
northeast CWA given cloud cover and limited heating.  Deep layer
shear will generally be weak within the upper low, but 20-30kt
around the southern/western fringe of the CWA could support an
isolated strong storm capable of producing hail with the freezing
level down below 8k ft. Highs are expected to range from the
mid/upper 60s east, where clouds and the 850mb thermal trough will
have the most impact, to the lower 70s in the west.

Height rise aloft and high pressure building in from the west will
rapidly diminish precip coverage this evening, while skies slowly
clear behind the departing upper trough.  lows in the low/mid 50s.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/...
As of 325 PM Sunday...

Updated shortly

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

Conditions are expected to dry out on Tuesday as the upper low pulls
further away and shortwave ridging builds over the region. As the
low pulls away, the building ridge will keep the main storm track to
our north and west, resulting in mostly dry conditions through the
majority of the long term period. There are indications that the
ridge may weaken some towards the end of the forecast period,
allowing an uptick in mostly diurnal type convection. However, given
the model disagreement (the GFS, which is known the break ridges
down too quickly, breaks down the ridge, while the ECMWF holds
strong), will just show a little increase in cloud cover and will
bring in a slight chance of precip at the very end of the forecast
period. Otherwise, temps will gradually warm up to above normal,
from mostly lower 80s on Tuesday to mid/upper 80s for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/...
As of 135 AM Monday...

The main aviation concern today is an area of low clouds moving
south out of VA early this morning, which will impact areas east of
KRDU through at least mid-morning.  MVFR ceilings are most likely at
KRWI, with a period of IFR and scattered showers after 12z. Showers
will be more isolated to the west, especially west of KRDU, where
cloud bases are more likely to be in the 3000-4000ft range.  An 8-
12kt northerly wind will prevail for much of the day, becoming light
and variable tonight as low pressure moves off the NC coast and VFR
conditions return areawide.

Long term: VFR conditions will be predominate this week as high
pressure builds over the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KILM 230520
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
120 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will move across the eastern Carolinas through late
tonight...bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms before
departing offshore on Tuesday. Drier weather combined with above
normal temperatures will follow mid week into next weekend...as an
upper ridge expands from the Gulf states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 120 AM Monday...An upper low positioned across Virginia
this evening and will move into northeast North Carolina by
daybreak. Shortwave energy rotating around this upper low will
pivot across the forecast area tonight. One spoke of energy moved
offshore earlier this eve. The next in the series will move into
the eastern Carolinas overnight. Although lapse rates were steep
earlier today due to surface heating and cool temps aloft...this
will not be the case overnight. Thus...will go along with the
consensus of high resolution models and show convection ending by
or shortly after the midnight hour and then redeveloping Mon
morning as the pool of coldest air aloft reaches the area
coincident with the onset of surface heating.

Variably cloudy skies tonight. Lows in the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...For Monday, avbl models are in a consensus
with the evolution and now progression of the upper closed low.
Initially on Monday, the upper low will be over the Eastern
Carolinas. It`s progged to begin lifting northward with a slow
acceleration during Monday, reaching off the NJ coast by daybreak
Tue. As for sensible wx during Monday thru Monday night, one of the
spokes or mid-level s/w trofs rotating around the closed low, will
push across the FA Monday morning. The upper s/w trof dynamics, the
cold temps aloft with -20 degrees at 500 mb Monday morning, and avbl
moisture, will all combine to produce isolated to scattered
convection, which will be continuing into this time period from the
Near term Period. The morning`s insolation will likely be enough for
instability early to mid daytime Mon morning to produce isolated
thunder. With cold temps aloft, thunderstorms may produce pea size
hail along with brief gusty winds. For the remainder of Monday and
Monday night, subsidence aloft in the wake of the exiting s/w trof
should keep a partial lid on any additional convection during Monday
aftn and evening, but wouldn`t be surprised if a few convective
cells develop. Temps thru Monday night will continue to run 5 to 10
degrees below normal.

For Tuesday, the upper low will progress further ne, away from the
ILM CWA, reaching off Cape Cod by daybreak Wed. As a result, the FA
will be under a de-amplifying upper trof, and in addition, upper
ridging will be approaching from the west by late Tue. The ILM CWA
will no longer see those "spokes" rotating around the upper low
moving across the FA. Drying thru the atm column will also be
evident as illustrated by the latest various model rh time height
displays for locations across the fa. All of this said, spells no
POPs and a mostly sunny Tuesday and a clear sky Tue night. A warming
trend will ensue, with Max/Min temps reaching normal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Summer weather for the last week of May as
ridging aloft and Bermuda high pressure at the surface combine
across the southeast. Each day through the extended will feature
above normal temps...widespread mid to upper 80s...although temps
will be a bit cooler at the coast thanks to a sea breeze each
aftn...with lows in the mid 60s. Subsidence beneath the ridge will
preclude even diurnal convection most days...although will maintain
a SCHC Thursday as a weak impulse moves atop the ridge...with enough
subtle height falls and PVA to generate storms Thursday evening.
Otherwise the forecast through the period remains dry and warm. On
Sunday...both the ECM and GFS have a broad low pressure moving
towards the coast embedded in the easterly flow. This could bring
unsettled weather and cooler temperatures...however confidence is
low and will keep pop below mentionable for D7.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF cycle
although patches of MVFR fog tonight are likely. There is also a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday that warrants
VCSH 15z-22z as an upper low pivots across the area. Light and
mainly N-NW winds are expected through the valid TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...Winds tonight will be from the N and NNE at
10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft. A batch of showers is
expected to wane as it approaches the waters late this eve.
Showers are expected to redevelop Mon morning as an upper low
approaches from the N.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Surface Low off Cape Hatteras Monday
morning will track to the north and eventually will get captured
by the upper low also lifting to the north. A weakly tightened sfc
pg initially will yield n winds backing to nw at 10 to
occasionally 15 kt across the NC waters. With the captured low
further departing Monday night thru Tuesday and weak high pressure
settling across the area waters, winds will further back to the
West Mon night into Tue, and SW late Tue into Tue night. The sfc
pg will further relax yielding wind speeds around 10 kt at best.

Significant seas will run basically be around 3 feet. Seas will
subside from 2 to 3 ft at the start of Tue to around 2 ft Tue night.
An ESE ground swell at 8 to occasionally 9 second periods will
dominate the significant seas into Tue with locally produced wind
waves becoming more evident during Tue thru Tue Night.

Convection will be ongoing Monday morning. Any of the isolated
thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing brief wind
gusts up to 25 kt, and even pea size hail along the immediate coast
only.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS of 300 PM Sunday...Bermuda high pressure will dominate the
synoptic regime through the end of the week. This drives
persistent S/SW winds across the waters...and as the gradient
remains light...speeds will peak around 10 kt each day. Seas
within this regime will be rather uniform through the period...2-3
ft with a 2 ft/8 sec SE wave and 2 ft/4 sec SW wave comprising the
spectrum.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN/8




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities