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000
FXUS62 KMHX 300620
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
220 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO NOSE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING. SOME METARS HAVE BEGUN TO DECOUPLE AS SUGGEST BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS INLAND/COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG AT 5SM FROM 08-11Z THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL. SOUTHWESTERN MHX CWA ZONES HAVE RADIATED
VERY WELL ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT READINGS 63-65
F. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR TODAY WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WILL LIKELY YIELD THE BEST RESULTS, SO WILL CONTINUE A
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS STRUGGLING TO BUILD
NEAR 1.40 INCHES, SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK/ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THOUGH THE
INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE IS PERHAPS THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. TODAY MAY IN FACT REMAIN DRY. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO
SHIFT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, HOWEVER,
WHICH SHOULD YIELD ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BUT KEEP DRY ELSEWHERE.
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS AGAIN WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, LOW
60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING SQUEEZED BY
UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE. RIDGES WILL
BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA TUESDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI
PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT
OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S
OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL
AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND THU.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE PCPN
THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM AROUND
80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF/SHALLOW FOG AT MVFR LEVELS MAY
BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. DECOUPLED WINDS AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION MAY HELP WITH
SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER
INSOLATION INITIATES AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
WSW OVER THE EASTERN NC WATERS THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
10 KNOTS OR LESS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4-5 FT SEAS ALONG THE
OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS
RADIATING WEST AWAY FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF
THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300620
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
220 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO NOSE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING. SOME METARS HAVE BEGUN TO DECOUPLE AS SUGGEST BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS INLAND/COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG AT 5SM FROM 08-11Z THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL. SOUTHWESTERN MHX CWA ZONES HAVE RADIATED
VERY WELL ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT READINGS 63-65
F. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR TODAY WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WILL LIKELY YIELD THE BEST RESULTS, SO WILL CONTINUE A
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS STRUGGLING TO BUILD
NEAR 1.40 INCHES, SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK/ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THOUGH THE
INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE IS PERHAPS THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. TODAY MAY IN FACT REMAIN DRY. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO
SHIFT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, HOWEVER,
WHICH SHOULD YIELD ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BUT KEEP DRY ELSEWHERE.
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS AGAIN WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, LOW
60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING SQUEEZED BY
UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE. RIDGES WILL
BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA TUESDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI
PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT
OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S
OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL
AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND THU.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE PCPN
THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM AROUND
80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF/SHALLOW FOG AT MVFR LEVELS MAY
BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. DECOUPLED WINDS AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION MAY HELP WITH
SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER
INSOLATION INITIATES AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
WSW OVER THE EASTERN NC WATERS THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
10 KNOTS OR LESS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4-5 FT SEAS ALONG THE
OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS
RADIATING WEST AWAY FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF
THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 300534
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
134 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS
IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE INLAND TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS
WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD
LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-69 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN
WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS
WANTING TO INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT
THIS TIME WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THINGS RATHER SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEAK RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FROM THIS
POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000 MILE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL
RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING
DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE.
RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR.
THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE APPROACHED SHORE...AND
MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...REK/DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/SHK



000
FXUS62 KILM 300534
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
134 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS
IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE INLAND TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS
WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD
LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-69 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN
WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS
WANTING TO INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT
THIS TIME WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THINGS RATHER SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEAK RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FROM THIS
POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000 MILE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL
RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING
DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE.
RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR.
THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE APPROACHED SHORE...AND
MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...REK/DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/SHK



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KRAH 300455
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1254 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY SUB-VFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING (08-14Z). GIVEN THE RATHER PATCHY NATURE OF THE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY MORNING... WILL KEEP MENTION OF MAINLY
SUB-VFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD... WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE TRIAD (KGSO/KINT)... THOUGH EVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES
THAN YESTERDAY. THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. -BSD

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300455
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1254 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY SUB-VFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING (08-14Z). GIVEN THE RATHER PATCHY NATURE OF THE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY MORNING... WILL KEEP MENTION OF MAINLY
SUB-VFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD... WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE TRIAD (KGSO/KINT)... THOUGH EVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES
THAN YESTERDAY. THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. -BSD

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 300455
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1254 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY SUB-VFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING (08-14Z). GIVEN THE RATHER PATCHY NATURE OF THE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY MORNING... WILL KEEP MENTION OF MAINLY
SUB-VFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD... WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE TRIAD (KGSO/KINT)... THOUGH EVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES
THAN YESTERDAY. THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. -BSD

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300455
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1254 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY SUB-VFR CIGS AND/OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING (08-14Z). GIVEN THE RATHER PATCHY NATURE OF THE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY MORNING... WILL KEEP MENTION OF MAINLY
SUB-VFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD... WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE TRIAD (KGSO/KINT)... THOUGH EVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES
THAN YESTERDAY. THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. -BSD

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KILM 300225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-69 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN
WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS
WANTING TO INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT
THIS TIME WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THINGS RATHER SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEAK RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 300225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-69 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN
WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS
WANTING TO INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT
THIS TIME WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THINGS RATHER SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEAK RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 300200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ON THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE.
RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W
ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA
TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER
MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND
THU.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE
PCPN THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND
5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM
AROUND 80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN AREA
TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPOACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/BM/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/JBM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300117
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300117
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300117
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300117
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300117
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300117
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MIXED TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE 10-20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THEY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND EVEN MID 50S AT RDU. THIS MIXING
OCCURRED AT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILT BACK WESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR NC/SC. THIS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NC. THERE WERE LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NW PART OF NC INCLUDING THE WINSTON-SALEM AREA WITH
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY ADVECT INLAND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW STRATUS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NW
ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE... LOWS GENERALLY
63-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 300035
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
835 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300035
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
835 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT...WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 835 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS/FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING (08-13Z) AND CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE (20-01Z)...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG AND AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
(PARTICULARLY INT/GSO) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KILM 292351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-68 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KILM 292351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-68 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KILM 292351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-68 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 292351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-68 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 292305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL HOLDING ON BUT WILL BE
GONE SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL REMOVE MENTION
OF PRECIP FROM THE UPCOMING ZONE PACKAGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO
AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE.
RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W
ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA
TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER
MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND
THU.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE
PCPN THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND
5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM
AROUND 80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE IT IN THE
UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPOACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/BM/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/JBM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 292305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL HOLDING ON BUT WILL BE
GONE SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL REMOVE MENTION
OF PRECIP FROM THE UPCOMING ZONE PACKAGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO
AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE.
RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W
ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA
TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER
MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND
THU.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE
PCPN THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND
5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM
AROUND 80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE IT IN THE
UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPOACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/BM/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/JBM



000
FXUS62 KILM 292233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...MAY STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE LAST FRIDAY EVENING OF MAY 2015 WILL END ON
A FINE AND FAIR NOTE...AS DIURNAL CUMULUS VAPORIZES INTO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR PERCHED ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET AS ASCENDING
PARCEL MOTION SPUTTERS OUT TO INCREASED STRATIFICATION. MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS INLAND EARLY INTO SATURDAY.
EFFICIENT HEAT ESCAPE AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD
TO GROUND-BASED NEAR SATURATION INTO PRE-DAWN SATURDAY AND POCKETS
OF FOG AND MIST-BANKS MAY UNFOLD. THIS APT TO BE FAVORED INLAND AWAY
FROM THE STIRRING OF SE ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE SEA. MINIMUMS A FEW
NOTCHES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS A LARGE
POTION OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 60S AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST
WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED AND PERSISTENT RECENTLY ASIDE
FROM A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE SWELL PORTION OF THE SPECTRAL
CHARACTER. BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TIED TO LONGER PERIOD
ENERGY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE CHOP. SEAS COMPRISED OF ESE
WAVES 3-4 FEET AROUND EVERY 9 SECONDS. INSHORE NEAR THE MYRTLES
BOTTOM FRICTION MAY EAT ENOUGH OF THE ENERGY TO DAMPEN SWELL TO 2
FEET...BUT 3 FOOT BREAKERS STILL GOOD BET IN OCCASIONAL PHASES
THERE. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS AND LOCAL INSHORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 80
DEGREES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KMHX 292013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS PSBL MAINLY WELL INLAND INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE.
RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W
ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA
TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER
MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND
THU.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE
PCPN THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND
5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM
AROUND 80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 9Z FOR ISO AND OAJ TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPOACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC/DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC/JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JAC/JBM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 292013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS PSBL MAINLY WELL INLAND INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE.
RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W
ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA
TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER
MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND
THU.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE
PCPN THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND
5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM
AROUND 80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 9Z FOR ISO AND OAJ TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPOACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC/DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC/JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JAC/JBM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 292013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS PSBL MAINLY WELL INLAND INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE.
RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W
ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA
TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER
MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND
THU.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE
PCPN THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND
5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM
AROUND 80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 9Z FOR ISO AND OAJ TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPOACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC/DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC/JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JAC/JBM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 292013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS PSBL MAINLY WELL INLAND INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. SFC AND UPR LEVEL RIDGES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT WILL BEING
SQUEEZED BY UPR LVL TROFFING TO W AND WEAKENING UPR LOW FROM E-SE.
RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN MON WITH UPR TROF MOVING IN FROM W
ACCOMPANIED BY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AREA
TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY S AND E OF AREA WED. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR THU-FRI PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OVER
MS/AL WHILE ECMWF HAS IT OVER NRN FLA...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE FRONT STALLING JUST S OF AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF
THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COASTAL AND SRN SECTIONS WED NIGHT AND
THU.

SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE
PCPN THREAT AND KEPT PREVIOUS DRY FCST FOR PERIOD. TEMPS AROUND
5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS FROM
AROUND 80 OBX TO UPR 80S INLAND.

MON-WED...INCREASING POPS FOR MON INTO TUE AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH UPR TROFFING AND SHRT WV ENERGY
ALOFT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS AT 50% FOR TUE AFTN/EVE WITH 40% FOR TUE
NIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR WED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST S AND E
OF AREA. STILL WARM AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90
INLAND...THEN TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH FRONTAL
INSTRUSION.

THU-FRI...LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND COMBINED WITH WPC...INDICATING
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DURING PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON BOX WITH NE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 9Z FOR ISO AND OAJ TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM E-NE. FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MON AND MOVE THROUGH AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN
INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THIS PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S-SW SUN INTO MON BUT SPEEDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT UNTIL MON NIGHT...WITH INCREASE UP TO 15 KT AS FRONT
APPOACHES FROM NW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SURGE TO AROUND 15 KT WED. SEAS MAINLY
2-4 FT THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE TO 5 FT NRN WATERS
LATE WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC/DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC/JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JAC/JBM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291925
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT... WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291925
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT... WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291925
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT... WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291925
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT... WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291925
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS AFOOT... WHEREIN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 14 DAYS ACCORDING TO
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST STEAMY BUT MOSTLY DRY DAY. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE DOWN
THROUGH ERN KY LATE SUN... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AS THE WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TRACKING TO THE NE WITHIN THE WEAK MEAN STEERING
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING BUT EASE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA SUN NIGHT...
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH MON. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING CELL OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS (LIMITING
CAPE) AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN (BELOW NORMAL PW OVER ERN HALF
OF CWA). HIGHS SUN 85-90. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NRN/WRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMING (OR BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED) OVER THE CWA MON... MODELS ARE KEEPING A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
DAY... A FUNCTION OF THE SLOW SPEED AND LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY
TO DROP FROM SW ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STARTING MON IN
ORDER FOR THE TROUGH TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALL
OF THIS WILL SERVE TO DELAY COOLING INTO NC UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT
DROPS INTO NC TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. BOTH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WRN AND SW CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD BE GREATEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL WANE MON
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING... BUT NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
TUE... SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-
60%). EXPECT HIGH COVERAGE AGAIN WED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW AS THE
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NRN/WRN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
WITH THE LATTER SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST
TUE AND SHIFTING OVER THE ERN STATES WED... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
STREAMS UNPHASED WITH A CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY. PREFER THE WEAKER-FLOW GFS WITH THE FRONT LOITERING ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NC THROUGH THU/FRI... AS THE ONCE-COOL SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED MODIFIES AND STARTS TO
DRIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WASHED OUT AND BE OVERTAKEN BY COASTAL INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL TREND POPS TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
VALUES THU/FRI -- 25-35% CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH --
GIVEN THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKENING FORCING
FEATURES.

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND LIFTING MORNING STRATUS ON MON... WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 (COOLEST NW AND FAR NORTH). HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD SLIP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS... WITH THESE CLOUDS EQUATING TO MILD/HUMID
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED...
THEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291917
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
317 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291917
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
317 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291917
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
317 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291917
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
317 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM: THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATING
THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY IS REALLY NO DIFFERENT. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT (AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
ARE SHOWING LESS THAN 10 KTS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 30 KFT) ALL OF
THE ACTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH MUCH OF IT OCCURRING NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TRIAD WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND ACTUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WHAT IS OUT THERE NOW COULD BE THE PEAK OF
IT BUT WILL REQUIRE WATCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE
SANDHILLS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ALSO HINTED AT SOME SHOWERS FORMING ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE COAST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TRIAD WHERE CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR COULD SHOW UP FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND 12Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY. RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN A
LITTLE FURTHER THAN RECENT DAYS AND THE UPSHOT IS POSSIBLY A DRIER
DAY IN THE TRIAD THAN PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS. WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT CONTINUED MINIMAL SHEAR
AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TODAY DONT BODE WELL FORE CONVECTION
PROSPECTS. THIS IS BACKED UP BY CAMS WHICH SHOW MINIMAL ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTEAD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM RETURN FLOW
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KILM 291849
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
249 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...MAY STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE LAST FRIDAY EVENING OF MAY 2015 WILL END ON
A FINE AND FAIR NOTE...AS DIURNAL CUMULUS VAPORIZES INTO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR PERCHED ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET AS ASCENDING
PARCEL MOTION SPUTTERS OUT TO INCREASED STRATIFICATION. MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS INLAND EARLY INTO SATURDAY.
EFFICIENT HEAT ESCAPE AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD
TO GROUND-BASED NEAR SATURATION INTO PRE-DAWN SATURDAY AND POCKETS
OF FOG AND MIST-BANKS MAY UNFOLD. THIS APT TO BE FAVORED INLAND AWAY
FROM THE STIRRING OF SE ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE SEA. MINIMUMS A FEW
NOTCHES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS A LARGE
POTION OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 60S AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...
EXCEPT 10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO /KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST
WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED AND PERSISTENT RECENTLY ASIDE
FROM A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE SWELL PORTION OF THE SPECTRAL
CHARACTER. BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TIED TO LONGER PERIOD
ENERGY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE CHOP. SEAS COMPRISED OF ESE
WAVES 3-4 FEET AROUND EVERY 9 SECONDS. INSHORE NEAR THE MYRTLES
BOTTOM FRICTION MAY EAT ENOUGH OF THE ENERGY TO DAMPEN SWELL TO 2
FEET...BUT 3 FOOT BREAKERS STILL GOOD BET IN OCCASIONAL PHASES
THERE. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS AND LOCAL INSHORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 80
DEGREES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291849
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
249 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...MAY STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE LAST FRIDAY EVENING OF MAY 2015 WILL END ON
A FINE AND FAIR NOTE...AS DIURNAL CUMULUS VAPORIZES INTO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR PERCHED ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET AS ASCENDING
PARCEL MOTION SPUTTERS OUT TO INCREASED STRATIFICATION. MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS INLAND EARLY INTO SATURDAY.
EFFICIENT HEAT ESCAPE AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD
TO GROUND-BASED NEAR SATURATION INTO PRE-DAWN SATURDAY AND POCKETS
OF FOG AND MIST-BANKS MAY UNFOLD. THIS APT TO BE FAVORED INLAND AWAY
FROM THE STIRRING OF SE ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE SEA. MINIMUMS A FEW
NOTCHES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS A LARGE
POTION OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 60S AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...
EXCEPT 10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO /KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST
WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED AND PERSISTENT RECENTLY ASIDE
FROM A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE SWELL PORTION OF THE SPECTRAL
CHARACTER. BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TIED TO LONGER PERIOD
ENERGY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE CHOP. SEAS COMPRISED OF ESE
WAVES 3-4 FEET AROUND EVERY 9 SECONDS. INSHORE NEAR THE MYRTLES
BOTTOM FRICTION MAY EAT ENOUGH OF THE ENERGY TO DAMPEN SWELL TO 2
FEET...BUT 3 FOOT BREAKERS STILL GOOD BET IN OCCASIONAL PHASES
THERE. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE
WATERS AND LOCAL INSHORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 80
DEGREES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291814
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
214 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS PSBL MAINLY WELL INLAND INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 9Z FOR ISO AND OAJ TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE BACK DOOR
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC/DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/DAG/BM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291814
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
214 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS OR
TSTMS PSBL MAINLY WELL INLAND INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR AND MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE
FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TAF
FORECAST AS IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A THREAT OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 9Z FOR ISO AND OAJ TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE BACK DOOR
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC/DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/DAG/BM



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291745
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP FROM THE TRIAD DOWN
TO STANLEY COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE QUICK TO DISSIPATE SO FAR AND
ARE TRAVELING NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND FORECASTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID AND
FOLLOWS. -ELLIS

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. -77

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291745
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP FROM THE TRIAD DOWN
TO STANLEY COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE QUICK TO DISSIPATE SO FAR AND
ARE TRAVELING NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND FORECASTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID AND
FOLLOWS. -ELLIS

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. -77

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST IS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRIAD SITES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THIS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM CHARLOTTE TO RICHMOND WHICH CLIPS THE TRIAD BUT STORMS
FORMING HERE WILL MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE SOUTH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD BE BRIEF AND OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 4-6
KFT RANGE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY RECEIVING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH MOSTLY MVFR POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES. AFTER 15Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH A
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY LOOK FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KILM 291726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...EXCEPT
10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE INLAND
AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KFLO
/KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...EXCEPT
10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE INLAND
AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KFLO
/KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...EXCEPT
10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE INLAND
AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KFLO
/KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...EXCEPT
10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE INLAND
AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KFLO
/KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ESE WINDS 5-10 KT...EXCEPT
10-15 KT AT KMYR/KCRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE INLAND
AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT E THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KFLO
/KLBT. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP 14-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291707
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
107 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACRS SRN OBX WITH
HSE REPORTING LWR 80S. ALSO...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS EXTENDING
SLGT CHC PRECI ALONG SRN OBX THROUGH THE AFTN ASSOCD WITH INVERTED
TROF. REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES
AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17. SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP
PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MAX TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE AND
BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT ELY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT
AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND
WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
YIELDING A PLEASANT BOATING DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/DAG



000
FXUS62 KILM 291555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1155 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291439
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291439
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291439
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291439
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291438
AFDILM
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291438
AFDILM
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291438
AFDILM
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291438
AFDILM
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291426
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP FROM THE TRIAD DOWN
TO STANLEY COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE QUICK TO DISSIPATE SO FAR AND
ARE TRAVELING NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND FORECASTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID AND
FOLLOWS. -ELLIS

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. -77

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGSO AND KINT THIS MORNING... BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. ELSEWHERE... WE MAY SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT RANGE FROM 12Z TO 15/16Z... BUT MAY
REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN BROKEN.

ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT/EVE (19-02Z)... BEST
CHANCES AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS. HOWEVER... COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...77/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291426
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP FROM THE TRIAD DOWN
TO STANLEY COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE QUICK TO DISSIPATE SO FAR AND
ARE TRAVELING NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND FORECASTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID AND
FOLLOWS. -ELLIS

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. -77

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGSO AND KINT THIS MORNING... BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. ELSEWHERE... WE MAY SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT RANGE FROM 12Z TO 15/16Z... BUT MAY
REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN BROKEN.

ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT/EVE (19-02Z)... BEST
CHANCES AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS. HOWEVER... COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...77/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY
H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS
HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD
ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS
TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291334
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. REGION REMAINS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS CONT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM, SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE 00Z
KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND VERY DRY BELOW 850
MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND
HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND FAIRLY
FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWER
FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE AND
BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT
AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND
WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
YIELDING A PLEASANT BOATING DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291334
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. REGION REMAINS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS CONT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM, SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE 00Z
KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND VERY DRY BELOW 850
MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND
HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND FAIRLY
FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWER
FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE AND
BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT
AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND
WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
YIELDING A PLEASANT BOATING DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291334
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. REGION REMAINS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS CONT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM, SO WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE 00Z
KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND VERY DRY BELOW 850
MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND
HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND FAIRLY
FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWER
FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE AND
BUOY DATA INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT
AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND
WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
YIELDING A PLEASANT BOATING DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/DAG



000
FXUS62 KILM 291132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE. COOLED TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SPC HAS ADDED A GENERAL RISK
FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
DRY AIR AND AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER UPDRAFTS FROM
REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE -10C REQUIRED FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-3 FT WITH AN 8 SEC
DOMINANT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 291132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE. COOLED TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SPC HAS ADDED A GENERAL RISK
FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
DRY AIR AND AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER UPDRAFTS FROM
REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE -10C REQUIRED FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-3 FT WITH AN 8 SEC
DOMINANT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 291132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE. COOLED TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SPC HAS ADDED A GENERAL RISK
FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
DRY AIR AND AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER UPDRAFTS FROM
REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE -10C REQUIRED FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-3 FT WITH AN 8 SEC
DOMINANT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3AM FOLLOWS:

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291120
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO
AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
INLAND FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL.
MAX TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL
DOMINATED SEAS. AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT BOATING
DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291120
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO
AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
INLAND FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL.
MAX TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL
DOMINATED SEAS. AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT BOATING
DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291120
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO
AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
INLAND FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL.
MAX TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL
DOMINATED SEAS. AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT BOATING
DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291120
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO
AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
INLAND FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AS WELL.
MAX TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL
DOMINATED SEAS. AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT BOATING
DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291055
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGSO AND KINT THIS MORNING... BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. ELSEWHERE... WE MAY SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT RANGE FROM 12Z TO 15/16Z... BUT MAY
REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN BROKEN.

ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT/EVE (19-02Z)... BEST
CHANCES AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS. HOWEVER... COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...77/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291055
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER... A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VISBYS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGSO AND KINT THIS MORNING... BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. ELSEWHERE... WE MAY SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT RANGE FROM 12Z TO 15/16Z... BUT MAY
REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THAN BROKEN.

ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT/EVE (19-02Z)... BEST
CHANCES AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS. HOWEVER... COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...77/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290735
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM LOW CUMULUS OFF THE SOUTHERN OBX TO ONSLOW COAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND
1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND
FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE AROUND 4-5K FT HAS YIELDED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
AREA AVIATION DUE TO LACK OF SUB-VFR IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM SO EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECOUPLED
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE TO
S WINDS 3-7 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS.
AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290735
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM LOW CUMULUS OFF THE SOUTHERN OBX TO ONSLOW COAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND
1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND
FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE JUST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE AROUND 4-5K FT HAS YIELDED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
AREA AVIATION DUE TO LACK OF SUB-VFR IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM SO EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECOUPLED
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR INLAND
DIURNAL CONVECTION THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS INLAND.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE TO
S WINDS 3-7 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS.
AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH 3 TO 5 FT SWELL EXPECTED SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS) SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY AND 2
TO 3 FT MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AS THE
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290730
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY
THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST
CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...77/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290730
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRIDAY...

...INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND DECREASING HEIGHTS AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AT THE
SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR THE VA
BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED FROM U.S. 1 EASTWARD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NC LATE SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
UNUSUAL PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DURING THE
PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY PUSHES HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL DECREASE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
SLIP. A 1025 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

QPF FORECASTS TYPICALLY ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL IN THE WARM SEASON AS
THE COOL SEASON AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AN
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY
THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST
CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...77/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KILM 290728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...  A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 290728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...  A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 290728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SIGNIFICANTLY
NE OF THE CAROLINAS IS IMPRESSIVELY MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...AMPLIFIED MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THAT
RIDGE CENTER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER CREATE
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA...LONG RETURN FLOW
IS MORE E THAN SE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT
PROVIDES LONG RESIDENCE TIME FOR PARCELS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ONSHORE. HOWEVER...BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THAT THE AIR
MOVING ONSHORE IS ACTUALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
CANADA...WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE HIGH BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE US COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TOTAL MOISTURE IS LESS
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPERIENCED WITH THIS SETUP...AND THESE
DRIER PARCELS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CAP MUCH CONVECTION TODAY. STILL...HIGH RES GUIDANCE AGREES IN
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND TODAY WITH THE
RESULTANT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED 15-20 POP FOR THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE
CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH...NO LIGHTNING IS
FORECAST...AND MOST COMMUNITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY...HAVE HEDGED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED
BETTER AS OF LATE. THE E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 AT THE
BEACHES...AND AS HIGH AS 87/88 IN DARLINGTON/MARLBORO COUNTIES.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO SOME ADVECTION
STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
E/SE FLOW TO REDUCE NOCTURNAL COOLING. MINS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 65
WELL INLAND...TO ONLY ABOUT 70 FOR THE COAST. THESE ARE ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NE OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS WAVERING ONLY SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
E AND SE AT AROUND 10 KTS. CURRENT SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BUILD ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY...MORE DUE TO AN INCREASING E/SE SWELL THAN ANY WIND-
WAVE CONTRIBUTION. DOMINANT PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 9 SEC...WITH THE SWELL AMPLITUDE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
SHORE WHERE MORE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE FELT ON THIS LONGER PERIOD
WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...  A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT
WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A
SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290709
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY
THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST
CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...77/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290709
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY
THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST
CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...77/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290709
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY
THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST
CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...77/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290709
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WITH BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE MAY. WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.... CONVECTION
WILL BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY... THE SEABREEZE AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
LEFT FROM AREAS OF STRATUS. THE LATEST CAM`S CONTINUE TO POINT TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY... WITH POTENTIALLY SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE AS WELL. HOWEVER... CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT AS WELL... ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER DEVELOPING. STILL THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED... TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW`S PIVOTING NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. THUS... PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WHERE WE WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCE POPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LIMITED...
WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... WITH PERHAPS EVEN A
LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS... BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. EXPECTED SIMILAR
HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY
THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST
CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...77/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
217 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM LOW CUMULUS OFF THE SOUTHERN OBX TO ONSLOW COAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND
1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND
FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE AROUND 4-5K FT HAS YIELDED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
AREA AVIATION DUE TO LACK OF SUB-VFR IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM SO EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECOUPLED
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE
AND DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE TO
S WINDS 3-7 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS.
AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
217 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM LOW CUMULUS OFF THE SOUTHERN OBX TO ONSLOW COAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND
1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND
FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE AROUND 4-5K FT HAS YIELDED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
AREA AVIATION DUE TO LACK OF SUB-VFR IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM SO EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECOUPLED
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE
AND DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE TO
S WINDS 3-7 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS.
AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
217 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM LOW CUMULUS OFF THE SOUTHERN OBX TO ONSLOW COAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND
1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND
FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE AROUND 4-5K FT HAS YIELDED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
AREA AVIATION DUE TO LACK OF SUB-VFR IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM SO EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECOUPLED
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE
AND DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE TO
S WINDS 3-7 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS.
AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
217 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM LOW CUMULUS OFF THE SOUTHERN OBX TO ONSLOW COAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND
1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND
FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE AROUND 4-5K FT HAS YIELDED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
AREA AVIATION DUE TO LACK OF SUB-VFR IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM SO EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECOUPLED
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE
AND DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE TO
S WINDS 3-7 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS.
AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
217 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM LOW CUMULUS OFF THE SOUTHERN OBX TO ONSLOW COAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND
1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND
FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE AROUND 4-5K FT HAS YIELDED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
AREA AVIATION DUE TO LACK OF SUB-VFR IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM SO EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECOUPLED
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE
AND DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE TO
S WINDS 3-7 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS.
AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
217 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LATEST KMHX 88D INDICATES VERY WEAK
RETURNS FROM LOW CUMULUS OFF THE SOUTHERN OBX TO ONSLOW COAST, SO
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE 00Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS OF 1 INCH AND
VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASES TO AROUND
1.50 INCHES AND HAVE ADDED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 17.  SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, THOUGH REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH, AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INLAND
FAIRLY FAR/QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMATION ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MAX
TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TONIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WINDS
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS EXPECTED
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALL BELOW
1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION IN PLACE SO
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE AROUND 4-5K FT HAS YIELDED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
AREA AVIATION DUE TO LACK OF SUB-VFR IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM SO EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DECOUPLED
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE
AND DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE TO
S WINDS 3-7 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED SEAS.
AN EASTERLY SWELL 1-2 FT AROUND 11 SECONDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
A SLIGHT SE TO E WIND WAVE THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, YIELDING A PLEASANT DAY FOR THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF
THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290536
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINED AS OF MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WAS SLOWLY STABILIZING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING... BUT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE
MAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY
THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST
CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...PWB/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...77/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290536
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINED AS OF MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WAS SLOWLY STABILIZING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING... BUT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE
MAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY
THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST
CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...PWB/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...77/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290536
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINED AS OF MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WAS SLOWLY STABILIZING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING... BUT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE
MAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH NO ACTIVITY NEAR ANY CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. HOWEVER... A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE TRIAD
COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO INVOF KGSO/KINT EARLY
THIS MORNING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR
CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-15Z)...AND
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE (19-00Z)... BEST
CHANCE AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...PWB/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...77/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 290524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 290524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE
STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED
TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS
HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER
DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 290228
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KILM 290228
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KILM 290228
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KILM 290228
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KILM 290228
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE
ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10
PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I
EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT
WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL
WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND
10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290224
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1024 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS...SKIES ARE
CLEAR. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP
WORDING AS MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290224
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1024 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS...SKIES ARE
CLEAR. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP
WORDING AS MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290224
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1024 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS...SKIES ARE
CLEAR. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP
WORDING AS MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290224
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1024 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS...SKIES ARE
CLEAR. SOME SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP
WORDING AS MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 1020 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINED AS OF MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WAS SLOWLY STABILIZING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING... BUT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE
MAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...PWB/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINED AS OF MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WAS SLOWLY STABILIZING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING... BUT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE
MAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...PWB/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINED AS OF MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WAS SLOWLY STABILIZING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING... BUT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE
MAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...PWB/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINED AS OF MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WAS SLOWLY STABILIZING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING... BUT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE
MAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...PWB/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM REMAINED AS OF MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC. INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WAS SLOWLY STABILIZING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING... BUT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE... WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE
MAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...PWB/MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 282346
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS
COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS
STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL
THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET
SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED
AIRMASS...MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282346
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS
COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS
STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL
THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET
SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED
AIRMASS...MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282346
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS
COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS
STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL
THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET
SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED
AIRMASS...MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282346
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS
COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS
STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL
THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET
SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED
AIRMASS...MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282346 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS
COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS
STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL
THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET
SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED
AIRMASS...MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282346 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS
COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS
STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL
THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET
SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED
AIRMASS...MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282346 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS
COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS
STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL
THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET
SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED
AIRMASS...MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282346 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS
COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS
STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL
THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET
SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED
AIRMASS...MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DIURNAL CONVECTION (PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL
NC ALONG/WEST OF I-77) WILL WANE/DISSIPATE BY 00-03Z. ASIDE FROM A
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR FOG OR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS (08-13Z)...AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE
FRI AFT/EVE (20-00Z) AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AHEAD: STATUS QUO. EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LATE AFT/EVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. EXPECT CHANCES THEREOF
TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS AND A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 282339
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS
LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A
STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED...
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KILM 282339
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS
LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A
STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED...
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 282332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS
LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A
STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED...
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KILM 282332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS
LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A
STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN...
AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5
DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS)
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS
ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN
MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED...
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING
FRIDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 282307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
CONVECTTION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE
SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S INLAND
TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 282307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
CONVECTTION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE
SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S INLAND
TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 282307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
CONVECTTION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE
SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S INLAND
TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 282307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
CONVECTTION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE
SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S INLAND
TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 282307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
CONVECTTION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE
SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S INLAND
TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 282307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
CONVECTTION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE
SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S INLAND
TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD. GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STUCK
WITH VFR FCST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE/ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH
PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/JBM
MARINE...HSA/JAC/BTC



000
FXUS62 KILM 282230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KILM 282230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT
MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 282048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 282048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 282048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 282048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 282048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE
NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT
WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL
OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS
FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS
SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR
WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95
AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING
IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON
COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS
WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE.  GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER
THE BEACHES.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8
SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM
WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT.  SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281842
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THE SANDHILLS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TROF WHICH WAS
COINCIDENT WITH A DIFFERNTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO THE MORNINGS
STRATUS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING AND WILL
THUSLY END ALL LINGERING POPS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY TONIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IN THE MORNING... MAINLY THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS WHICH GET
SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED
AIRMASS...MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

DEEP RIDGING BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA
AND PRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MORE STRONGLY AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR ITS SUBSEQUENT
MIGRATION INTO THE TRIAD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE
INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. CLEARING AND PERSISTENTLY MILD
TOMORROW NIGHT...MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST...APPROACHING THE AREA. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GENERATED PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EXPECT THE USUAL BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EVENING HOURS...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE MON-
WED...AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT
SLIDES INTO/THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID
80S SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S (COOLER
NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH). LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

AS EXPECTED...DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALMOST RANDOMLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM AT ONE OF
THE SITES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITES AND
PATCHY LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PREDAWN...10-13Z
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ANY OF
THE SITES THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY
MIDMORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE STRONGLY.

OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER
THE AREA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...CMLM
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MLM



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/BTC/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/BTC/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/BTC/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/BTC/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITION
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER INLAND AREAS (MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17) FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ANY ISOLATED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS MAINLY MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND AROUND
80/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70
COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THRU THE NE STATES SUPPRESSES THE SE RIDGE.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY AGAIN BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/LACK OF TRIGGERS, BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THRU THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES/POTENTIAL ERROR. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING MID WEEK BUT MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR WORKING IN
FROM THE NORTH THRU THURSDAY. AFTER ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
WEEK, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUE/WED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION SHLD BE LIMITED THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E. LIGHT, MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH THRU THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/BTC/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281755
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
155 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MOVING THROUGH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI NIGHT AND
SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281755
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
155 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MOVING THROUGH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI NIGHT AND
SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281755
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
155 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MOVING THROUGH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI NIGHT AND
SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281755
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
155 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MOVING THROUGH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO
MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPR 60S ON THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA ON FRI. A WEAK INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL
APPEARS THAT MID LVL DRYING ASSOC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE TOO ISOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.


LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS OF 2 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-10KT CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AS HIGH PRES TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS CONT IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI NIGHT AND
SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WILL BE DIMINISHING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
MEANWHILE...MORNING STRATUS/FOG HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE AREA INTO LATE MORNING...AND COULD HAVE A SUPPRESSIVE AFFECT ON
CONVECTION DUE TO THE HOUR OR TWO LAG IN HEATING IT WILL CAUSE
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RAPID WARMING AND TEMPS WILL CATCH UP ONCE
BREAKS OCCUR...SO WE SHOULD STILL APPROACH ONGOING FORECAST MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. LOW CHANCE POP
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AS
INSTABILITY CLIMBS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE ABOUT
NIL...A WEAK WESTERN PIEDMONT TROF TO PERHAPS ELEVATE POPS A BIT IN
THE TRIAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM THURSDAY...

GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS
DESTABILIZATION...GENERALLY 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OR LESS. THUS RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ISOLATED-SLIGHT CHANCE(10 TO 20 PERCENT) AT BEST.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS APPARENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE NEAR THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WITH A RIDGE ALOFT NEAR THE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH POSITION. A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS SETUP SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HAVE ACCORDINGLY CUT BACK POPS WITH JUST A LIMITED AREA
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS WHERE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS INHIBITIVE AND BOTH THE GFS/EC SUGGEST A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAVANAH
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 85 AND 88 DEGREES.

THE WESTERLIES SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT AND THE NC/VA BORDER AREA...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE DRY. CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD A BIT AND THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIPS
EASTWARD. WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE 5-10M. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 87
TO 91 RANGE. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHS ON MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND MAY REACH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE
AIRMASS WILL COOL NOTICEABLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE RAH CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR HENDERSON NC HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM 70
TO 86 ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80 AT THE
VA BORDER TO 88 AT THE SC BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TN VALLEY CLOSES OFF AND BECOMES CUT
OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT LINGERS IN THE REGION BUT MOST LIKELY
PERSISTS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. EXPECT NEAR SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

AS EXPECTED...DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALMOST RANDOMLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM AT ONE OF
THE SITES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITES AND
PATCHY LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PREDAWN...10-13Z
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ANY OF
THE SITES THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY
MIDMORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE STRONGLY.

OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER
THE AREA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...MLM



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WILL BE DIMINISHING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
MEANWHILE...MORNING STRATUS/FOG HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE AREA INTO LATE MORNING...AND COULD HAVE A SUPPRESSIVE AFFECT ON
CONVECTION DUE TO THE HOUR OR TWO LAG IN HEATING IT WILL CAUSE
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RAPID WARMING AND TEMPS WILL CATCH UP ONCE
BREAKS OCCUR...SO WE SHOULD STILL APPROACH ONGOING FORECAST MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. LOW CHANCE POP
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AS
INSTABILITY CLIMBS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE ABOUT
NIL...A WEAK WESTERN PIEDMONT TROF TO PERHAPS ELEVATE POPS A BIT IN
THE TRIAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM THURSDAY...

GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS
DESTABILIZATION...GENERALLY 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OR LESS. THUS RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ISOLATED-SLIGHT CHANCE(10 TO 20 PERCENT) AT BEST.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS APPARENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE NEAR THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WITH A RIDGE ALOFT NEAR THE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH POSITION. A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS SETUP SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HAVE ACCORDINGLY CUT BACK POPS WITH JUST A LIMITED AREA
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS WHERE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS INHIBITIVE AND BOTH THE GFS/EC SUGGEST A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAVANAH
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 85 AND 88 DEGREES.

THE WESTERLIES SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT AND THE NC/VA BORDER AREA...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE DRY. CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD A BIT AND THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIPS
EASTWARD. WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE 5-10M. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 87
TO 91 RANGE. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHS ON MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND MAY REACH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE
AIRMASS WILL COOL NOTICEABLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE RAH CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR HENDERSON NC HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM 70
TO 86 ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80 AT THE
VA BORDER TO 88 AT THE SC BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TN VALLEY CLOSES OFF AND BECOMES CUT
OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT LINGERS IN THE REGION BUT MOST LIKELY
PERSISTS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. EXPECT NEAR SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

AS EXPECTED...DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALMOST RANDOMLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM AT ONE OF
THE SITES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITES AND
PATCHY LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PREDAWN...10-13Z
TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ANY OF
THE SITES THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY
MIDMORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE STRONGLY.

OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER
THE AREA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281741
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
141 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WEST OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. CONT CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTN THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE
DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
THIS AFTN. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281741
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
141 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WEST OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. CONT CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTN THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE
DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
THIS AFTN. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281741
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
141 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WEST OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. CONT CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTN THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE
DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
THIS AFTN. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281741
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
141 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WEST OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. CONT CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTN THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE
DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
THIS AFTN. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281741
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
141 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WEST OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. CONT CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTN THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE
DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
THIS AFTN. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281741
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
141 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WEST OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. CONT CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTN THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE
DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THU...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF PERIOD.
SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND AND INDICATED VCSH FOR ALL BUT KEWN.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. GDNC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AND STUCK WITH VFR FCST.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
THIS AFTN. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KILM 281728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281728
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE
NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS
THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR
MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM
DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED
....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
MID MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 281637
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281637
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281637
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281637
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281637
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281636
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB/SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 281636
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES...AS DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CAPS
SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG
THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS
PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER
MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL
WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S
DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1236 PM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB/SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281600
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WEST OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. CONT CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTN THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE
DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONT VCSH AT ISO AND PGV TAF SITES AFT 17Z.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
THIS AFTN. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281600
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WEST OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. CONT CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTN THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE
DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONT VCSH AT ISO AND PGV TAF SITES AFT 17Z.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
THIS AFTN. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281451
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WILL BE DIMINISHING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
MEANWHILE...MORNING STRATUS/FOG HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE AREA INTO LATE MORNING...AND COULD HAVE A SUPPRESSIVE AFFECT ON
CONVECTION DUE TO THE HOUR OR TWO LAG IN HEATING IT WILL CAUSE
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RAPID WARMING AND TEMPS WILL CATCH UP ONCE
BREAKS OCCUR...SO WE SHOULD STILL APPROACH ONGOING FORECAST MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS. LOW CHANCE POP
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AS
INSTABILITY CLIMBS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE ABOUT
NIL...A WEAK WESTERN PIEDMONT TROF TO PERHAPS ELEVATE POPS A BIT IN
THE TRIAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM THURSDAY...

GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS
DESTABILIZATION...GENERALLY 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OR LESS. THUS RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ISOLATED-SLIGHT CHANCE(10 TO 20 PERCENT) AT BEST.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS APPARENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE NEAR THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
WITH A RIDGE ALOFT NEAR THE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH POSITION. A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS SETUP SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HAVE ACCORDINGLY CUT BACK POPS WITH JUST A LIMITED AREA
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS WHERE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS INHIBITIVE AND BOTH THE GFS/EC SUGGEST A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAVANAH
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 85 AND 88 DEGREES.

THE WESTERLIES SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT AND THE NC/VA BORDER AREA...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE DRY. CHANCES OF CONVECTION INCREASE ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD A BIT AND THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIPS
EASTWARD. WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE 5-10M. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 87
TO 91 RANGE. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGHS ON MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH AND MAY REACH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE
AIRMASS WILL COOL NOTICEABLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE RAH CWA. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR HENDERSON NC HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM 70
TO 86 ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80 AT THE
VA BORDER TO 88 AT THE SC BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TN VALLEY CLOSES OFF AND BECOMES CUT
OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT LINGERS IN THE REGION BUT MOST LIKELY
PERSISTS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. EXPECT NEAR SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

AREAS OF SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR 15-16Z. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK: THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER
THE AREA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SOME INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD
MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING
FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST
MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W
OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER
TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD
MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING
FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST
MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W
OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER
TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD
MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING
FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST
MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W
OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER
TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD
MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SE NC WESTWARD NEAR I-95 ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO MID-LEVEL DRYING
FARTHER INLAND. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER MAY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST
MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT N AND W
OF OUR AREA MORESO INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND INLAND OF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUMS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AS WATER
TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S DEEPER INLAND. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING
MARLBORO COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... CONVECTION OUGHT TO BE PRETTY HARD TO COME BY
ON FRIDAY SAVE FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED COVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT AND A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING
AROUND 700MB. INLAND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE DO SEE A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PEELS AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS LIKELY ONLY
AFFECTS THE WATER OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERSION APPEARS TO MIX OUT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY BUT
THE DRY AIR APPEARS PRETTY STALWART. EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS AND FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SCANT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH
THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY
BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF
NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING
THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG AT KLBT/KFLO WILL DISSIPATE 12-1230Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT. BKN LOW VFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP AT
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS SLOWLY DROP
BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
KFLO/KLBT ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 948 AM THURSDAY...WINDS BACKING FROM S TO ESE-SE TODAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY RELAXED SFC PG...RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT...15 KT AT PEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS AT 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. WILL OBSERVE A BUILDING
TREND TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS AS ILLUSTRATED BY WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY
RUN NWP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING E-ESE FETCH. COULD SEE 4
FOOTERS BY DAYBREAK FRI ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. PERIODS
WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A SWELL
RATHER THAN JUST WIND DRIVEN WAVES. A CHOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKLY SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC MAINLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NORMALLY SUCH LIGHT FLOW
(CAPPED AT 10 KT) WOULD LEAD TO VERY DIMINUTIVE SEAS. HOWEVER THE
EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LONGER PERIOD WAVE
ENERGY INTO MOST OF THE REGION. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 9 SECONDS. NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK ZONES WILL BE A BIT
SHADOWED FROM THE SWELLS. THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS
OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH
THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS
WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN
WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING CO