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000
FXUS62 KRAH 021558
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1158 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

PRECIP/TEMPS: A DRY/SUBSIDENT H7-H3 AIRMASS (ATTENDANT THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE) WILL SIT ATOP AND CAP THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (~100 J/KG WITH AN EQUIL. LEVEL
~12 KFT). GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND A PROFOUND ABSENCE
OF FORCING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S FRI MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND CLOSE OFF INTO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE OH VALLEY FRI NIGHT. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL MEANDER OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES RAPIDLY
EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS BY 00Z...AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY ~12Z
SAT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LEFT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ERODE FROM WEST-EAST ON FRIDAY AS
SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ERODE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INHIBIT INSOLATION DURING PEAK HEATING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT COMMENCE IN EARNEST UNTIL ~00Z...AND LITTLE OR NO
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. WITH VERY
WEAK THERMODYNAMICS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ASIDE FROM
BROAD SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN ASSOC/W A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...COOLEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: A PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
FROM WESTERN NC TO THE COAST BETWEEN 00-12Z SAT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ASSOC/W STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN NOCTURNAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH AS MUCH
AS 250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY 00-03Z AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.50-
2.00". ALTHOUGH THE BEST DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT...SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF
ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...
GIVEN BAD DIURNAL TIMING...WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...AND A LACK OF
STRONG/FOCUSED UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THUNDER NOW APPEARS DOUBTFUL
AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
SUNRISE SAT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM LINGERING FOG/STRATUS AT THE INT/GSO
TERMINALS THROUGH ~16Z...VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NC AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS GIVEN A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...
AND AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-23 KT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021558
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1158 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

PRECIP/TEMPS: A DRY/SUBSIDENT H7-H3 AIRMASS (ATTENDANT THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE) WILL SIT ATOP AND CAP THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (~100 J/KG WITH AN EQUIL. LEVEL
~12 KFT). GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND A PROFOUND ABSENCE
OF FORCING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S FRI MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND CLOSE OFF INTO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE OH VALLEY FRI NIGHT. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL MEANDER OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES RAPIDLY
EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS BY 00Z...AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY ~12Z
SAT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LEFT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ERODE FROM WEST-EAST ON FRIDAY AS
SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ERODE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INHIBIT INSOLATION DURING PEAK HEATING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT COMMENCE IN EARNEST UNTIL ~00Z...AND LITTLE OR NO
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. WITH VERY
WEAK THERMODYNAMICS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ASIDE FROM
BROAD SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN ASSOC/W A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...COOLEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: A PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
FROM WESTERN NC TO THE COAST BETWEEN 00-12Z SAT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ASSOC/W STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN NOCTURNAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH AS MUCH
AS 250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY 00-03Z AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.50-
2.00". ALTHOUGH THE BEST DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT...SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF
ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...
GIVEN BAD DIURNAL TIMING...WEAK THERMODYNAMICS...AND A LACK OF
STRONG/FOCUSED UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THUNDER NOW APPEARS DOUBTFUL
AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
SUNRISE SAT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM LINGERING FOG/STRATUS AT THE INT/GSO
TERMINALS THROUGH ~16Z...VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NC AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS GIVEN A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...
AND AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-23 KT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021453
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1053 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

PRECIP/TEMPS: A DRY/SUBSIDENT H7-H3 AIRMASS (ATTENDANT THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE) WILL SIT ATOP AND CAP THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (~100 J/KG WITH AN EQUIL. LEVEL
~12 KFT). GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND A PROFOUND ABSENCE
OF FORCING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S FRI MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM LINGERING FOG/STRATUS AT THE INT/GSO
TERMINALS THROUGH ~16Z...VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NC AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS GIVEN A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...
AND AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-23 KT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021453
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1053 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

PRECIP/TEMPS: A DRY/SUBSIDENT H7-H3 AIRMASS (ATTENDANT THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE) WILL SIT ATOP AND CAP THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (~100 J/KG WITH AN EQUIL. LEVEL
~12 KFT). GIVEN SUCH MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND A PROFOUND ABSENCE
OF FORCING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S FRI MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM LINGERING FOG/STRATUS AT THE INT/GSO
TERMINALS THROUGH ~16Z...VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NC AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS GIVEN A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...
AND AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-23 KT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 021415
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1010 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...12Z RAOBS FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS SHOW A
SMALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOSTLY MANIFESTED IN THE
LOW LEVELS. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON...ANYWHERE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 7KFT BEING FAIR GAME FOR A CLOUD BASE. ON AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...JUST ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS OVER THE
WATER. HIGH PRESSURE COVERING NOT ONLY THE LANDMASS BUT ALSO THE
FIRST FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OCEAN MAKING FOR A VERY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW. NO REAL SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SO THE PALTRY WIND WAVE THE
PREDOMINANT SEA STATE. LOOKS LIKE SEAS CAPPED AT 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 021415
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1010 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...12Z RAOBS FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS SHOW A
SMALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOSTLY MANIFESTED IN THE
LOW LEVELS. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON...ANYWHERE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AT 7KFT BEING FAIR GAME FOR A CLOUD BASE. ON AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...JUST ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS OVER THE
WATER. HIGH PRESSURE COVERING NOT ONLY THE LANDMASS BUT ALSO THE
FIRST FEW HUNDRED MILES OF OCEAN MAKING FOR A VERY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW. NO REAL SWELL ENERGY TO SPEAK OF SO THE PALTRY WIND WAVE THE
PREDOMINANT SEA STATE. LOOKS LIKE SEAS CAPPED AT 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43











  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 021400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM THURS...REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG/LOW
STRATUS MIXING OUT MIX OUT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NC BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH WINDS
SHIFTING ESE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND ENE FOR AREAS NORTH BUT
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS 80-83 F FOR THE AREA
EXCEPT MID 70 ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OVER EASTERN NC TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SE BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS
HOW FAR INLAND THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PENETRATES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION AS
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...THUS LIGHT MIXING AND LACK OF
AN INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST FOG NOT BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOW 60S EXPECTED INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG
THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO MOSTLY AGREE ON TIMING OF
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S. DEEPER MOISTURE
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO THINK
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE EVENING FRIDAY OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE PRECIPITATION
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THE STRONG CAA KICKS IN. THE FIRST REAL SHOT OF FALL TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE IN EARNEST SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 50S COAST. SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE COOL 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE COMFORTABLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ONCE MORNING
FOG/LOW STRATUS MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LATE DAY
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND DIMINISH FURTHER TONIGHT TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY SEE WINDS SHIFT ESE/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL CONTINUE
SEAS FORECAST MOSTLY BASED OF IT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3-4 FT
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MARINE FORECAST FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP TO NEAR 25 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE
VEERING TO W/NW AND DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE
WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE W/SW 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

SOME INCREASED SWELLS ALONG WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 021400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM THURS...REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG/LOW
STRATUS MIXING OUT MIX OUT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NC BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH WINDS
SHIFTING ESE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND ENE FOR AREAS NORTH BUT
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS 80-83 F FOR THE AREA
EXCEPT MID 70 ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OVER EASTERN NC TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SE BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS
HOW FAR INLAND THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PENETRATES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION AS
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...THUS LIGHT MIXING AND LACK OF
AN INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST FOG NOT BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOW 60S EXPECTED INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG
THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO MOSTLY AGREE ON TIMING OF
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S. DEEPER MOISTURE
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO THINK
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE EVENING FRIDAY OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE PRECIPITATION
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THE STRONG CAA KICKS IN. THE FIRST REAL SHOT OF FALL TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE IN EARNEST SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 50S COAST. SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE COOL 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE COMFORTABLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ONCE MORNING
FOG/LOW STRATUS MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LATE DAY
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND DIMINISH FURTHER TONIGHT TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY SEE WINDS SHIFT ESE/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL CONTINUE
SEAS FORECAST MOSTLY BASED OF IT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3-4 FT
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MARINE FORECAST FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP TO NEAR 25 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE
VEERING TO W/NW AND DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE
WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE W/SW 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

SOME INCREASED SWELLS ALONG WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KRAH 021146
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES HAVE VARIED AMONG MVFR AND IFR/LIFR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT RWI. THESE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND
15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS
MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM THROUGH
MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM ONCE
AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 06Z FRI)... AND THIS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY FRI MORNING... EXPECT IMPROVEMENT OF VSBYS
TO VFR DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021118
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
718 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...THE FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL
MIX OUT BY 8-9 AM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT
OVER EASTERN NC TODAY WITH OVERALL PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH WINDS SHIFTING
ESE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND ENE FOR AREAS NORTH. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH
HIGHS 81-83 F FOR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO 76-78 ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AREAS. THE OBX WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OVER EASTERN NC TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SE BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS
HOW FAR INLAND THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PENETRATES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION AS
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...THUS LIGHT MIXING AND LACK OF
AN INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST FOG NOT BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOW 60S EXPECTED INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG
THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO MOSTLY AGREE ON TIMING OF
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S. DEEPER MOISTURE
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO THINK
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE EVENING FRIDAY OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE PRECIPITATION
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THE STRONG CAA KICKS IN. THE FIRST REAL SHOT OF FALL TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE IN EARNEST SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 50S COAST. SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE COOL 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE COMFORTABLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ONCE MORNING
FOG/LOW STRATUS MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LATE DAY
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND DIMINISH FURTHER TONIGHT TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY SEE WINDS SHIFT ESE/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL CONTINUE
SEAS FORECAST MOSTLY BASED OF IT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3-4 FT
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MARINE FORECAST FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP TO NEAR 25 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE
VEERING TO W/NW AND DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE
WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE W/SW 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

SOME INCREASED SWELLS ALONG WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021118
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
718 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...THE FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS INLAND AREAS WILL
MIX OUT BY 8-9 AM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT
OVER EASTERN NC TODAY WITH OVERALL PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH WINDS SHIFTING
ESE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND ENE FOR AREAS NORTH. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH
HIGHS 81-83 F FOR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO 76-78 ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AREAS. THE OBX WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OVER EASTERN NC TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SE BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS
HOW FAR INLAND THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PENETRATES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION AS
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...THUS LIGHT MIXING AND LACK OF
AN INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST FOG NOT BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOW 60S EXPECTED INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG
THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO MOSTLY AGREE ON TIMING OF
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S. DEEPER MOISTURE
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO THINK
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE EVENING FRIDAY OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE PRECIPITATION
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THE STRONG CAA KICKS IN. THE FIRST REAL SHOT OF FALL TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE IN EARNEST SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 50S COAST. SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE COOL 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE COMFORTABLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ONCE MORNING
FOG/LOW STRATUS MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LATE DAY
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND DIMINISH FURTHER TONIGHT TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY SEE WINDS SHIFT ESE/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL CONTINUE
SEAS FORECAST MOSTLY BASED OF IT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3-4 FT
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MARINE FORECAST FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP TO NEAR 25 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE
VEERING TO W/NW AND DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE
WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE W/SW 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

SOME INCREASED SWELLS ALONG WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KILM 021058
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ANY FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE A SCT-V-BKN DECK OF
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE ANOTHER MORNING WITH FOG
AND STRATUS IN ON TAP. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
RATHER RESTRICTED...AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
PLAYER. H5 RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL TONIGHT AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND HAVE LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY. FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT OF NOTE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT INITIALLY.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND HOWEVER...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 021058
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ANY FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE A SCT-V-BKN DECK OF
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE ANOTHER MORNING WITH FOG
AND STRATUS IN ON TAP. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
RATHER RESTRICTED...AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
PLAYER. H5 RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL TONIGHT AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND HAVE LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY. FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT OF NOTE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT INITIALLY.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND HOWEVER...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 021058
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ANY FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE A SCT-V-BKN DECK OF
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE ANOTHER MORNING WITH FOG
AND STRATUS IN ON TAP. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
RATHER RESTRICTED...AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
PLAYER. H5 RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL TONIGHT AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND HAVE LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY. FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT OF NOTE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT INITIALLY.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND HOWEVER...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 021058
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ANY FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE A SCT-V-BKN DECK OF
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE ANOTHER MORNING WITH FOG
AND STRATUS IN ON TAP. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
RATHER RESTRICTED...AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
PLAYER. H5 RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL TONIGHT AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND HAVE LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY. FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WILL BE REPLACED WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT OF NOTE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT INITIALLY.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND HOWEVER...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 021049
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
649 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS. FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ANY FOG/STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE A SCT-V-BKN DECK OF
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE ANOTHER MORNING WITH FOG
AND STRATUS IN ON TAP. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
RATHER RESTRICTED...AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
PLAYER. H5 RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL TONIGHT AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND HAVE LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY. FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. FOR SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED
INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT
ECLIPSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
VIA IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF
THE FOG A BIT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS GIVEN THE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT ALL TERMS AFTER 08-09Z...WITH TEMPO IFR AT
KLBT/KFLO FROM 09-12Z. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO VSBYS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE DAYBREAK. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR COULD DEVELOP
AT KILM/KCRE BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR THE
INLAND SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...BUT ANY VSBY ISSUES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT OF NOTE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT INITIALLY.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND HOWEVER...SPEEDS
SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/SRP






000
FXUS62 KMHX 020746
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS INLAND
AREAS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DECOUPLE WITH PATCHY FOG 2-4SM ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NC. NO CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH FOG OR LOW
STRATUS EVENTUALLY MIXING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OVER EASTERN NC TODAY
WITH OVERALL PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH WINDS SHIFTING ESE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
HWY 70 AND ENE FOR AREAS NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS 81-83 F FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO 76-78 ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS. THE OBX
WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM THURS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OVER EASTERN NC TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SE BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS
HOW FAR INLAND THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PENETRATES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION AS
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...THUS LIGHT MIXING AND LACK OF
AN INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST FOG NOT BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOW 60S EXPECTED INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG
THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO MOSTLY AGREE ON TIMING OF
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S. DEEPER MOISTURE
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO THINK
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE EVENING FRIDAY OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE PRECIPITATION
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THE STRONG CAA KICKS IN. THE FIRST REAL SHOT OF FALL TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE IN EARNEST SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 50S COAST. SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE COOL 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE COMFORTABLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE...AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. PERSISTENCE WOULD FAVOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR PGV/ISO GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN NC. ANY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
MIXING OUT AFTER SUNRISE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK BY THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LATE DAY
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 4 FT FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT NE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND DIMINISH
FURTHER TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY SEE
WINDS SHIFT ESE/SE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER
THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL CONTINUE SEAS FORECAST MOSTLY BASED OF IT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3-4 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2-3 FT
SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MARINE FORECAST FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP TO NEAR 25 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE
VEERING TO W/NW AND DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE
WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE W/SW 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

SOME INCREASED SWELLS ALONG WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 020746
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS INLAND
AREAS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DECOUPLE WITH PATCHY FOG 2-4SM ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NC. NO CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH FOG OR LOW
STRATUS EVENTUALLY MIXING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OVER EASTERN NC TODAY
WITH OVERALL PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH WINDS SHIFTING ESE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
HWY 70 AND ENE FOR AREAS NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS 81-83 F FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO 76-78 ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS. THE OBX
WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM THURS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OVER EASTERN NC TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SE BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS
HOW FAR INLAND THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PENETRATES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION AS
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...THUS LIGHT MIXING AND LACK OF
AN INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST FOG NOT BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOW 60S EXPECTED INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG
THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO MOSTLY AGREE ON TIMING OF
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S. DEEPER MOISTURE
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO THINK
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE EVENING FRIDAY OR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE PRECIPITATION
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THE STRONG CAA KICKS IN. THE FIRST REAL SHOT OF FALL TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE IN EARNEST SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 50S COAST. SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE COOL 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE COMFORTABLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE...AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. PERSISTENCE WOULD FAVOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR PGV/ISO GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN NC. ANY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
MIXING OUT AFTER SUNRISE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK BY THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LATE DAY
CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND PERHAPS
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 4 FT FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT NE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND DIMINISH
FURTHER TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY SEE
WINDS SHIFT ESE/SE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER
THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL CONTINUE SEAS FORECAST MOSTLY BASED OF IT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3-4 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2-3 FT
SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MARINE FORECAST FOR
EXTENDED PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP TO NEAR 25 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE
VEERING TO W/NW AND DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE
WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE W/SW 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

SOME INCREASED SWELLS ALONG WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KILM 020727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE
A SCT-V-BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE ANOTHER
MORNING WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN ON TAP. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY BUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS RATHER RESTRICTED...AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A PLAYER. H5 RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL TONIGHT
AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND HAVE LOWERED MINS A
CATEGORY. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE
REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING CONFIDENCE. FOR
SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED INCREASE IN
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS. MUCH COOLER
SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT ECLIPSING
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST VIA IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF
THE FOG A BIT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS GIVEN THE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT ALL TERMS AFTER 08-09Z...WITH TEMPO IFR AT
KLBT/KFLO FROM 09-12Z. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO VSBYS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE DAYBREAK. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR COULD DEVELOP
AT KILM/KCRE BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR THE
INLAND SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...BUT ANY VSBY ISSUES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND
HOWEVER...SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 020727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE
A SCT-V-BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE ANOTHER
MORNING WITH FOG AND STRATUS IN ON TAP. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY BUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS RATHER RESTRICTED...AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A PLAYER. H5 RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL TONIGHT
AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND HAVE LOWERED MINS A
CATEGORY. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE
REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADDRESS INCREASING CONFIDENCE. FOR
SATURDAY...GUIDANCE HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER WARRANTING A MARKED INCREASE IN
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...NOW APPROACHING 80 FOR MOST AREAS. MUCH COOLER
SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS NOT ECLIPSING
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST VIA IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH 40S CWA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. LATE IN THE DAY THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE REALIGNS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS DROP DOWN TO
AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF
THE FOG A BIT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS GIVEN THE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT ALL TERMS AFTER 08-09Z...WITH TEMPO IFR AT
KLBT/KFLO FROM 09-12Z. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO VSBYS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE DAYBREAK. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR COULD DEVELOP
AT KILM/KCRE BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR THE
INLAND SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...BUT ANY VSBY ISSUES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND
HOWEVER...SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY DAYS
END. THE FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SATURDAY WILL SEE WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. SEAS DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL
AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS BASICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
BE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE. THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
DOWN IN THE MAIN FLOW THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO
THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. BY WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS WITH 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S INLAND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR








000
FXUS62 KRAH 020711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG...
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE.
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY: THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS...THE MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. -PWB

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING`S FOG... HOWEVER
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)...
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY: THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS...THE MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. -PWB

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY: THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS...THE MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. -PWB

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/PWB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY: THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING
MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS...THE MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. -PWB

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/PWB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020625
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
225 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS INLAND
AREAS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DECOUPLE WITH PATCHY FOG 2-4SM ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NC. NO CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH FOG OR LOW
STRATUS EVENTUALLY MIXING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OVER EASTERN NC TODAY
WITH OVERALL PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH WINDS SHIFTING ESE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
HWY 70 AND ENE FOR AREAS NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS 81-83 F FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO 76-78 ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS. THE OBX
WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM THURS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST OVER EASTERN NC TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SE BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS
HOW FAR INLAND THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PENETRATES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION AS
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...THUS LIGHT MIXING AND LACK OF
AN INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST FOG NOT BEING AN ISSUE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOW 60S EXPECTED INLAND AND MID 60S ALONG
THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CONT DRY WEATHER THRU FRI AS MID/UPR RDG
CROSSES. FRI WL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W FRI NIGHT AND CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORN. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA WILL CROSS LATER FRI
NIGHT THEN EXIT THE CST EARLY SAT. CONT LIKELY POPS LATE FRI
NIGHT...SVR THREAT CONTS TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LIMITED
INSTAB OVER THE REGION. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD FRI NIGHT WITH 65 TO 70 MOST SPOTS. WITH CAA DELAYED A
BIT SAT THINK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN SAT AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...LOWS SUN MORN WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 40S COOLER INLAND
SPOTS WITH HIGHS SUN MAINLY 65 TO 70. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONT DRY WX MON THRU WED. TEMPS WILL
GRAD MODERATE WITH UPR 70S FOR HIGHS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE...AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. PERSISTENCE WOULD FAVOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR PGV/ISO GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN NC. ANY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
MIXING OUT AFTER SUNRISE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK BY THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE SOME FOG/ST AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING S/SW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WITH SOME OCNL REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA WILL MOVE E OF TAF SAT BY EARLY SAT WITH VFR REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S AND MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 220 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 4 FT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC
TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND DIMINISH FURTHER TONIGHT TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY SEE WINDS SHIFT ESE/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL CONTINUE SEAS
FORECAST MOSTLY BASED OF IT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3-4 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL
WATERS TO 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES. WIND WILL GRAD BECOME S AT 10 TO 15 KTS LATER FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL PEAK 15 TO 25 KTS FRI
NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT THEN SHIFT TO WNW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT AFTN. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S SAT NIGHT AND SUN
EXPECT NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SAT EVENING TO BECOME LIGHT W SUNDAY.
FLOW WILL BECOME SSW 10 TO 15 KTS MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
E. SEAS WL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH POSS SOME 5
FOOTERS FAR OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS. AS SSW WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT
EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT AND THEY WILL CONT IN THAT RANGE
THRU SAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WNW. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE SUN AND MON
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH 2 TO 3 FT MOST WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KILM 020520
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ATTM ARE STAYING
ABOVE THE MIN TEMP CURVE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH CURRENT
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WILL GO AHEAD AND TWEAK
TONIGHTS MINS UPWARDS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SFC TO 900MB. SFC BASED INVERSION SHOULD GET STRONGER AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY INLAND ONCE THOSE DEBRIS
LOW/MID CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIT THE FOG HARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...JUST DELAYED BY A COUPLE
HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING. THUS...WILL GO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE
AN HOUR OR 2 BEFORE DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER VICINITY OF CLIO AND
MINTURN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND...AND COULD
MEET UP WITH THIS SHOWER WITHIN 1 TO 2 HRS BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO ACCOMMODATE.
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME THICK AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REDUCE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VSBYS TO DENSE
CRITERIA...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING IF ANY APPLIED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF
THE FOG A BIT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS GIVEN THE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT ALL TERMS AFTER 08-09Z...WITH TEMPO IFR AT
KLBT/KFLO FROM 09-12Z. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO VSBYS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE DAYBREAK. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR COULD DEVELOP
AT KILM/KCRE BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR THE
INLAND SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...BUT ANY VSBY ISSUES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD SFC RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NNE-ENE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. EVEN
10 KT MAY BE PUSHING IT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN 2 FT OR LESS...AND CONSIST OF A LAZY 1 FOOT ENE
GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 13 SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 SECOND PERIODS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 020520
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ATTM ARE STAYING
ABOVE THE MIN TEMP CURVE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH CURRENT
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WILL GO AHEAD AND TWEAK
TONIGHTS MINS UPWARDS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SFC TO 900MB. SFC BASED INVERSION SHOULD GET STRONGER AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY INLAND ONCE THOSE DEBRIS
LOW/MID CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIT THE FOG HARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...JUST DELAYED BY A COUPLE
HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING. THUS...WILL GO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE
AN HOUR OR 2 BEFORE DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER VICINITY OF CLIO AND
MINTURN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND...AND COULD
MEET UP WITH THIS SHOWER WITHIN 1 TO 2 HRS BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO ACCOMMODATE.
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME THICK AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REDUCE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VSBYS TO DENSE
CRITERIA...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING IF ANY APPLIED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF
THE FOG A BIT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS GIVEN THE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT ALL TERMS AFTER 08-09Z...WITH TEMPO IFR AT
KLBT/KFLO FROM 09-12Z. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO VSBYS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE DAYBREAK. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR COULD DEVELOP
AT KILM/KCRE BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR THE
INLAND SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...BUT ANY VSBY ISSUES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD SFC RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NNE-ENE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. EVEN
10 KT MAY BE PUSHING IT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN 2 FT OR LESS...AND CONSIST OF A LAZY 1 FOOT ENE
GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 13 SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 SECOND PERIODS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 020520
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ATTM ARE STAYING
ABOVE THE MIN TEMP CURVE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH CURRENT
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WILL GO AHEAD AND TWEAK
TONIGHTS MINS UPWARDS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SFC TO 900MB. SFC BASED INVERSION SHOULD GET STRONGER AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY INLAND ONCE THOSE DEBRIS
LOW/MID CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIT THE FOG HARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...JUST DELAYED BY A COUPLE
HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING. THUS...WILL GO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE
AN HOUR OR 2 BEFORE DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER VICINITY OF CLIO AND
MINTURN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND...AND COULD
MEET UP WITH THIS SHOWER WITHIN 1 TO 2 HRS BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO ACCOMMODATE.
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME THICK AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REDUCE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VSBYS TO DENSE
CRITERIA...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING IF ANY APPLIED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF
THE FOG A BIT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS GIVEN THE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT ALL TERMS AFTER 08-09Z...WITH TEMPO IFR AT
KLBT/KFLO FROM 09-12Z. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO VSBYS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE DAYBREAK. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR COULD DEVELOP
AT KILM/KCRE BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR THE
INLAND SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...BUT ANY VSBY ISSUES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD SFC RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NNE-ENE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. EVEN
10 KT MAY BE PUSHING IT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN 2 FT OR LESS...AND CONSIST OF A LAZY 1 FOOT ENE
GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 13 SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 SECOND PERIODS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/SRP





000
FXUS62 KILM 020520
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ATTM ARE STAYING
ABOVE THE MIN TEMP CURVE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH CURRENT
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WILL GO AHEAD AND TWEAK
TONIGHTS MINS UPWARDS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SFC TO 900MB. SFC BASED INVERSION SHOULD GET STRONGER AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY INLAND ONCE THOSE DEBRIS
LOW/MID CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIT THE FOG HARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...JUST DELAYED BY A COUPLE
HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING. THUS...WILL GO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE
AN HOUR OR 2 BEFORE DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER VICINITY OF CLIO AND
MINTURN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND...AND COULD
MEET UP WITH THIS SHOWER WITHIN 1 TO 2 HRS BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO ACCOMMODATE.
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME THICK AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REDUCE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VSBYS TO DENSE
CRITERIA...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING IF ANY APPLIED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF
THE FOG A BIT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS GIVEN THE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT ALL TERMS AFTER 08-09Z...WITH TEMPO IFR AT
KLBT/KFLO FROM 09-12Z. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO VSBYS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE DAYBREAK. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR COULD DEVELOP
AT KILM/KCRE BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR THE
INLAND SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...BUT ANY VSBY ISSUES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD SFC RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NNE-ENE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. EVEN
10 KT MAY BE PUSHING IT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN 2 FT OR LESS...AND CONSIST OF A LAZY 1 FOOT ENE
GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 13 SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 SECOND PERIODS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/SRP





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020438
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020438
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...
AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
INCLUDING VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS
PROMOTING SURFACE COOLING DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS... PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBYS UNDER A HALF MILE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD AND FILL IN OVER
NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM
THROUGH MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRI).

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY FRI MORNING... PATCHY FOG SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 020321
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1121 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ATTM ARE STAYING
ABOVE THE MIN TEMP CURVE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH CURRENT
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WILL GO AHEAD AND TWEAK
TONIGHTS MINS UPWARDS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE AVBL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SFC TO 900MB. SFC BASED INVERSION SHOULD GET STRONGER AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY INLAND ONCE THOSE DEBRIS
LOW/MID CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIT THE FOG HARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...JUST DELAYED BY A COUPLE
HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING. THUS...WILL GO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE
AN HOUR OR 2 BEFORE DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER VICINITY OF CLIO AND
MINTURN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND...AND COULD
MEET UP WITH THIS SHOWER WITHIN 1 TO 2 HRS BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO ACCOMODATE.
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME THICK AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REDUCE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VSBYS TO DENSE
CRITERIA...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING IF ANY APPLIED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 60 AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS RELATED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS CERTAINLY FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS APPEAR ABOUT THE
SAME AS LAST NIGHT BUT THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT A TAD MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THAT SHOULD NOT
MATTER MUCH AND FOG CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES WITH
LOCALLY DENSE WORDING ADDED. EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WHAT PLACES IF ANY MAY SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG
FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED W-NW OF KLBT THIS EVENING...BUT THESE WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE ONLY IMPACT TO KLBT
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THU.
EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...BEGINNING WITH THE INLAND
TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO IFR
VSBYS FOR KFLO/KLBT IN THE 09-12Z WINDOW...THOUGH VSBYS COULD
BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS MVFR ATTM...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR COULD BE
ADDED WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
12Z...THU WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD SFC RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NNE-ENE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. EVEN
10 KT MAY BE PUSHING IT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN 2 FT OR LESS...AND CONSIST OF A LAZY 1 FOOT ENE
GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 13 SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 SECOND PERIODS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE NOW THAT HAS BEEN BOLSTERING THE NE FLOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BE A LOCAL WIND-MAKER.
SIMILARLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS, ITS PARENT ANTICYCLONE ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOOK FOR A DECREASING N TO NE FLOW LOCALLY,
LIKELY SETTLING TO JUST 10 KT. SEAS WILL ABATE TO JUST 2 FT
AREA-WIDE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 020321
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1121 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ATTM ARE STAYING
ABOVE THE MIN TEMP CURVE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH CURRENT
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WILL GO AHEAD AND TWEAK
TONIGHTS MINS UPWARDS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE AVBL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SFC TO 900MB. SFC BASED INVERSION SHOULD GET STRONGER AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY INLAND ONCE THOSE DEBRIS
LOW/MID CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIT THE FOG HARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...JUST DELAYED BY A COUPLE
HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING. THUS...WILL GO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE
AN HOUR OR 2 BEFORE DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER VICINITY OF CLIO AND
MINTURN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND...AND COULD
MEET UP WITH THIS SHOWER WITHIN 1 TO 2 HRS BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO ACCOMODATE.
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME THICK AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REDUCE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VSBYS TO DENSE
CRITERIA...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING IF ANY APPLIED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 60 AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS RELATED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS CERTAINLY FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS APPEAR ABOUT THE
SAME AS LAST NIGHT BUT THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT A TAD MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THAT SHOULD NOT
MATTER MUCH AND FOG CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES WITH
LOCALLY DENSE WORDING ADDED. EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WHAT PLACES IF ANY MAY SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG
FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED W-NW OF KLBT THIS EVENING...BUT THESE WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE ONLY IMPACT TO KLBT
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THU.
EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...BEGINNING WITH THE INLAND
TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO IFR
VSBYS FOR KFLO/KLBT IN THE 09-12Z WINDOW...THOUGH VSBYS COULD
BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS MVFR ATTM...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR COULD BE
ADDED WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
12Z...THU WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD SFC RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NNE-ENE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. EVEN
10 KT MAY BE PUSHING IT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN 2 FT OR LESS...AND CONSIST OF A LAZY 1 FOOT ENE
GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 13 SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 SECOND PERIODS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE NOW THAT HAS BEEN BOLSTERING THE NE FLOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BE A LOCAL WIND-MAKER.
SIMILARLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS, ITS PARENT ANTICYCLONE ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOOK FOR A DECREASING N TO NE FLOW LOCALLY,
LIKELY SETTLING TO JUST 10 KT. SEAS WILL ABATE TO JUST 2 FT
AREA-WIDE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC..EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE AS SIMILAR PATTERN OVER E NC AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL BE EXCEEDED ONCE AGAIN
WITH DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN. BEST BET FOR FOG
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SAME PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES IDENTICAL TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SFC HIGH PRES TO BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD SO WINDS LIGHT AND VAR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING TO A 2-3K FT SCT STRATO CU DECK
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CONT DRY WEATHER THRU FRI AS MID/UPR RDG
CROSSES. FRI WL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W FRI NIGHT AND CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORN. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA WILL CROSS LATER FRI
NIGHT THEN EXIT THE CST EARLY SAT. CONT LIKELY POPS LATE FRI
NIGHT...SVR THREAT CONTS TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LIMITED
INSTAB OVER THE REGION. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD FRI NIGHT WITH 65 TO 70 MOST SPOTS. WITH CAA DELAYED A
BIT SAT THINK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN SAT AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...LOWS SUN MORN WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 40S COOLER INLAND
SPOTS WITH HIGHS SUN MAINLY 65 TO 70. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONT DRY WX MON THRU WED. TEMPS WILL
GRAD MODERATE WITH UPR 70S FOR HIGHS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THUR AM AS SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN EXISTS OVER EAST NC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THURSDAY
WITH ANY FOG AND STRATUS MIXING OUT TO A SCT 2-3 K FT STRATOCU
DECK BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE SOME FOG/ST AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING S/SW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WITH SOME OCNL REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA WILL MOVE E OF TAF SAT BY EARLY SAT WITH VFR REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S AND MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...CURRENT OBS INDICATE N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER NRN/CENTRAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL
BASE FCST ON THIS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING A BIT IN STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES. WIND WILL GRAD BECOME S AT 10 TO 15 KTS LATER FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL PEAK 15 TO 25 KTS FRI
NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT THEN SHIFT TO WNW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT AFTN. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S SAT NIGHT AND SUN
EXPECT NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SAT EVENING TO BECOME LIGHT W SUNDAY.
FLOW WILL BECOME SSW 10 TO 15 KTS MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
E. SEAS WL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH POSS SOME 5
FOOTERS FAR OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS. AS SSW WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT
EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT AND THEY WILL CONT IN THAT RANGE
THRU SAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WNW. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE SUN AND MON
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH 2 TO 3 FT MOST WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 020209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC..EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE AS SIMILAR PATTERN OVER E NC AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL BE EXCEEDED ONCE AGAIN
WITH DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN. BEST BET FOR FOG
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SAME PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES IDENTICAL TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SFC HIGH PRES TO BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD SO WINDS LIGHT AND VAR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING TO A 2-3K FT SCT STRATO CU DECK
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CONT DRY WEATHER THRU FRI AS MID/UPR RDG
CROSSES. FRI WL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W FRI NIGHT AND CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORN. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA WILL CROSS LATER FRI
NIGHT THEN EXIT THE CST EARLY SAT. CONT LIKELY POPS LATE FRI
NIGHT...SVR THREAT CONTS TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LIMITED
INSTAB OVER THE REGION. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD FRI NIGHT WITH 65 TO 70 MOST SPOTS. WITH CAA DELAYED A
BIT SAT THINK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN SAT AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...LOWS SUN MORN WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 40S COOLER INLAND
SPOTS WITH HIGHS SUN MAINLY 65 TO 70. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONT DRY WX MON THRU WED. TEMPS WILL
GRAD MODERATE WITH UPR 70S FOR HIGHS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THUR AM AS SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN EXISTS OVER EAST NC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THURSDAY
WITH ANY FOG AND STRATUS MIXING OUT TO A SCT 2-3 K FT STRATOCU
DECK BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE SOME FOG/ST AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING S/SW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WITH SOME OCNL REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA WILL MOVE E OF TAF SAT BY EARLY SAT WITH VFR REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S AND MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...CURRENT OBS INDICATE N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER NRN/CENTRAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL
BASE FCST ON THIS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING A BIT IN STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES. WIND WILL GRAD BECOME S AT 10 TO 15 KTS LATER FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL PEAK 15 TO 25 KTS FRI
NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT THEN SHIFT TO WNW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT AFTN. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S SAT NIGHT AND SUN
EXPECT NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SAT EVENING TO BECOME LIGHT W SUNDAY.
FLOW WILL BECOME SSW 10 TO 15 KTS MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
E. SEAS WL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH POSS SOME 5
FOOTERS FAR OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS. AS SSW WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT
EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT AND THEY WILL CONT IN THAT RANGE
THRU SAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WNW. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE SUN AND MON
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH 2 TO 3 FT MOST WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF






000
FXUS62 KRAH 020135
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020135
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020135
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020135
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020000
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020000
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 012352
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER VICINITY OF CLIO AND
MINTURN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND...AND COULD
MEET UP WITH THIS SHOWER WITHIN 1 TO 2 HRS BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO ACCOMODATE.
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME THICK AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REDUCE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VSBYS TO DENSE
CRITERIA...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING IF ANY APPLIED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 60 AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS RELATED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS CERTAINLY FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS APPEAR ABOUT THE
SAME AS LAST NIGHT BUT THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT A TAD MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THAT SHOULD NOT
MATTER MUCH AND FOG CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES WITH
LOCALLY DENSE WORDING ADDED. EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WHAT PLACES IF ANY MAY SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG
FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED W-NW OF KLBT THIS EVENING...BUT THESE WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE ONLY IMPACT TO KLBT
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THU.
EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...BEGINNING WITH THE INLAND
TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO IFR
VSBYS FOR KFLO/KLBT IN THE 09-12Z WINDOW...THOUGH VSBYS COULD
BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS MVFR ATTM...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR COULD BE
ADDED WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
12Z...THU WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD SFC RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NNE-ENE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. EVEN
10 KT MAY BE PUSHING IT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN 2 FT OR LESS...AND CONSIST OF A LAZY 1 FOOT ENE
GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 13 SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 SECOND PERIODS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE NOW THAT HAS BEEN BOLSTERING THE NE FLOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BE A LOCAL WIND-MAKER.
SIMILARLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS, ITS PARENT ANTICYCLONE ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOOK FOR A DECREASING N TO NE FLOW LOCALLY,
LIKELY SETTLING TO JUST 10 KT. SEAS WILL ABATE TO JUST 2 FT
AREA-WIDE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR




000
FXUS62 KILM 012352
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER VICINITY OF CLIO AND
MINTURN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND...AND COULD
MEET UP WITH THIS SHOWER WITHIN 1 TO 2 HRS BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO ACCOMODATE.
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME THICK AND
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REDUCE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VSBYS TO DENSE
CRITERIA...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING IF ANY APPLIED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 60 AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS RELATED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS CERTAINLY FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS APPEAR ABOUT THE
SAME AS LAST NIGHT BUT THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT A TAD MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THAT SHOULD NOT
MATTER MUCH AND FOG CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES WITH
LOCALLY DENSE WORDING ADDED. EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WHAT PLACES IF ANY MAY SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG
FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED W-NW OF KLBT THIS EVENING...BUT THESE WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE ONLY IMPACT TO KLBT
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THU.
EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...BEGINNING WITH THE INLAND
TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO IFR
VSBYS FOR KFLO/KLBT IN THE 09-12Z WINDOW...THOUGH VSBYS COULD
BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS MVFR ATTM...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR COULD BE
ADDED WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
12Z...THU WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD SFC RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NNE-ENE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. EVEN
10 KT MAY BE PUSHING IT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN 2 FT OR LESS...AND CONSIST OF A LAZY 1 FOOT ENE
GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 13 SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 SECOND PERIODS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE NOW THAT HAS BEEN BOLSTERING THE NE FLOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BE A LOCAL WIND-MAKER.
SIMILARLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS, ITS PARENT ANTICYCLONE ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOOK FOR A DECREASING N TO NE FLOW LOCALLY,
LIKELY SETTLING TO JUST 10 KT. SEAS WILL ABATE TO JUST 2 FT
AREA-WIDE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KMHX 012305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC..EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE AS SIMILAR PATTERN OVER E NC AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL BE EXCEEDED ONCE AGAIN
WITH DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN. BEST BET FOR FOG
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SAME PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES IDENTICAL TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SFC HIGH PRES TO BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD SO WINDS LIGHT AND VAR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING TO A 2-3K FT SCT STRATO CU DECK
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CONT DRY WEATHER THRU FRI AS MID/UPR RDG
CROSSES. FRI WL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W FRI NIGHT AND CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORN. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA WILL CROSS LATER FRI
NIGHT THEN EXIT THE CST EARLY SAT. CONT LIKELY POPS LATE FRI
NIGHT...SVR THREAT CONTS TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LIMITED
INSTAB OVER THE REGION. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD FRI NIGHT WITH 65 TO 70 MOST SPOTS. WITH CAA DELAYED A
BIT SAT THINK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN SAT AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...LOWS SUN MORN WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 40S COOLER INLAND
SPOTS WITH HIGHS SUN MAINLY 65 TO 70. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONT DRY WX MON THRU WED. TEMPS WILL
GRAD MODERATE WITH UPR 70S FOR HIGHS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THUR AM AS SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN EXISTS OVER EAST NC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THURSDAY
WITH ANY FOG AND STRATUS MIXING OUT TO A SCT 2-3 K FT STRATOCU
DECK BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE SOME FOG/ST AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING S/SW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WITH SOME OCNL REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA WILL MOVE E OF TAF SAT BY EARLY SAT WITH VFR REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S AND MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...CURRENT OBS INDICATE N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER NRN/CENTRAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL
BASE FCST ON THIS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING A BIT IN STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES. WIND WILL GRAD BECOME S AT 10 TO 15 KTS LATER FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL PEAK 15 TO 25 KTS FRI
NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT THEN SHIFT TO WNW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT AFTN. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S SAT NIGHT AND SUN
EXPECT NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SAT EVENING TO BECOME LIGHT W SUNDAY.
FLOW WILL BECOME SSW 10 TO 15 KTS MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
E. SEAS WL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH POSS SOME 5
FOOTERS FAR OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS. AS SSW WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT
EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT AND THEY WILL CONT IN THAT RANGE
THRU SAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WNW. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE SUN AND MON
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH 2 TO 3 FT MOST WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 012305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC..EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE AS SIMILAR PATTERN OVER E NC AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL BE EXCEEDED ONCE AGAIN
WITH DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN. BEST BET FOR FOG
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SAME PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES IDENTICAL TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SFC HIGH PRES TO BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD SO WINDS LIGHT AND VAR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING TO A 2-3K FT SCT STRATO CU DECK
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CONT DRY WEATHER THRU FRI AS MID/UPR RDG
CROSSES. FRI WL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W FRI NIGHT AND CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORN. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA WILL CROSS LATER FRI
NIGHT THEN EXIT THE CST EARLY SAT. CONT LIKELY POPS LATE FRI
NIGHT...SVR THREAT CONTS TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LIMITED
INSTAB OVER THE REGION. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD FRI NIGHT WITH 65 TO 70 MOST SPOTS. WITH CAA DELAYED A
BIT SAT THINK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN SAT AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...LOWS SUN MORN WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 40S COOLER INLAND
SPOTS WITH HIGHS SUN MAINLY 65 TO 70. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONT DRY WX MON THRU WED. TEMPS WILL
GRAD MODERATE WITH UPR 70S FOR HIGHS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THUR AM AS SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN EXISTS OVER EAST NC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THURSDAY
WITH ANY FOG AND STRATUS MIXING OUT TO A SCT 2-3 K FT STRATOCU
DECK BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE SOME FOG/ST AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING S/SW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WITH SOME OCNL REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA WILL MOVE E OF TAF SAT BY EARLY SAT WITH VFR REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S AND MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...CURRENT OBS INDICATE N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER NRN/CENTRAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL
BASE FCST ON THIS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING A BIT IN STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES. WIND WILL GRAD BECOME S AT 10 TO 15 KTS LATER FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL PEAK 15 TO 25 KTS FRI
NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT THEN SHIFT TO WNW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT AFTN. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S SAT NIGHT AND SUN
EXPECT NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SAT EVENING TO BECOME LIGHT W SUNDAY.
FLOW WILL BECOME SSW 10 TO 15 KTS MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
E. SEAS WL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH POSS SOME 5
FOOTERS FAR OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS. AS SSW WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT
EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT AND THEY WILL CONT IN THAT RANGE
THRU SAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WNW. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE SUN AND MON
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH 2 TO 3 FT MOST WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF






000
FXUS62 KILM 011923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 60 AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS RELATED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS CERTAINLY FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS APPEAR ABOUT THE
SAME AS LAST NIGHT BUT THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT A TAD MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THAT SHOULD NOT
MATTER MUCH AND FOG CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES WITH
LOCALLY DENSE WORDING ADDED. EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WHAT PLACES IF ANY MAY SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG
FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR NEARLY TWO
WEEKS IS FINALLY COMING TO AN END. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING. THURSDAY...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE NOW THAT HAS BEEN BOLSTERING THE NE FLOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BE A LOCAL WIND-MAKER.
SIMILARLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS, ITS PARENT ANTICYCLONE ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOOK FOR A DECREASING N TO NE FLOW LOCALLY,
LIKELY SETTLING TO JUST 10 KT. SEAS WILL ABATE TO JUST 2 FT
AREA-WIDE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 60 AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS RELATED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS CERTAINLY FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS APPEAR ABOUT THE
SAME AS LAST NIGHT BUT THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT A TAD MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THAT SHOULD NOT
MATTER MUCH AND FOG CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES WITH
LOCALLY DENSE WORDING ADDED. EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WHAT PLACES IF ANY MAY SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG
FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR NEARLY TWO
WEEKS IS FINALLY COMING TO AN END. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING. THURSDAY...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE NOW THAT HAS BEEN BOLSTERING THE NE FLOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BE A LOCAL WIND-MAKER.
SIMILARLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS, ITS PARENT ANTICYCLONE ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOOK FOR A DECREASING N TO NE FLOW LOCALLY,
LIKELY SETTLING TO JUST 10 KT. SEAS WILL ABATE TO JUST 2 FT
AREA-WIDE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 60 AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS RELATED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS CERTAINLY FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS APPEAR ABOUT THE
SAME AS LAST NIGHT BUT THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT A TAD MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THAT SHOULD NOT
MATTER MUCH AND FOG CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES WITH
LOCALLY DENSE WORDING ADDED. EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WHAT PLACES IF ANY MAY SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG
FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR NEARLY TWO
WEEKS IS FINALLY COMING TO AN END. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING. THURSDAY...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE NOW THAT HAS BEEN BOLSTERING THE NE FLOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BE A LOCAL WIND-MAKER.
SIMILARLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS, ITS PARENT ANTICYCLONE ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOOK FOR A DECREASING N TO NE FLOW LOCALLY,
LIKELY SETTLING TO JUST 10 KT. SEAS WILL ABATE TO JUST 2 FT
AREA-WIDE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 60 AREA-WIDE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS RELATED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS CERTAINLY FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS APPEAR ABOUT THE
SAME AS LAST NIGHT BUT THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT A TAD MILDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THAT SHOULD NOT
MATTER MUCH AND FOG CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED FOR ALL ZONES WITH
LOCALLY DENSE WORDING ADDED. EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE A
BETTER IDEA WHAT PLACES IF ANY MAY SEE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG
FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY
COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST
COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS
A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS
ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF
FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON
BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR NEARLY TWO
WEEKS IS FINALLY COMING TO AN END. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING. THURSDAY...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE NOW THAT HAS BEEN BOLSTERING THE NE FLOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH TO NO LONGER BE A LOCAL WIND-MAKER.
SIMILARLY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS, ITS PARENT ANTICYCLONE ALL THE WAY UP THE EAST COAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOOK FOR A DECREASING N TO NE FLOW LOCALLY,
LIKELY SETTLING TO JUST 10 KT. SEAS WILL ABATE TO JUST 2 FT
AREA-WIDE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER
BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY
OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 011900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE AS SIMILAR PATTERN OVER E NC AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. X-OVER TEMPS WILL BE EXCEEDED ONCE AGAIN
WITH DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN. BEST BET FOR FOG
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SAME PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES IDENTICAL TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SFC HIGH PRES TO BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD SO WINDS LIGHT AND VAR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING TO A 2-3K FT SCT STRATO CU DECK
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CONT DRY WEATHER THRU FRI AS MID/UPR RDG
CROSSES. FRI WL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W FRI NIGHT AND CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORN. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA WILL CROSS LATER FRI
NIGHT THEN EXIT THE CST EARLY SAT. CONT LIKELY POPS LATE FRI
NIGHT...SVR THREAT CONTS TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LIMITED
INSTAB OVER THE REGION. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD FRI NIGHT WITH 65 TO 70 MOST SPOTS. WITH CAA DELAYED A
BIT SAT THINK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN SAT AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...LOWS SUN MORN WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 40S COOLER INLAND
SPOTS WITH HIGHS SUN MAINLY 65 TO 70. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONT DRY WX MON THRU WED. TEMPS WILL
GRAD MODERATE WITH UPR 70S FOR HIGHS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THUR AM AS SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN EXISTS OVER EAST NC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THURSDAY
WITH ANY FOG AND STRATUS MIXING OUT TO A SCT 2-3 K FT STRATO CU
DECK BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE SOME FOG/ST AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING S/SW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WITH SOME OCNL REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA WILL MOVE E OF TAF SAT BY EARLY SAT WITH VFR REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S AND MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...CURRENT OBS INDICATE N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER NRN/CENTRAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL
BASE FCST ON THIS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING A BIT IN STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES. WIND WILL GRAD BECOME S AT 10 TO 15 KTS LATER FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL PEAK 15 TO 25 KTS FRI
NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT THEN SHIFT TO WNW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT AFTN. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S SAT NIGHT AND SUN
EXPECT NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SAT EVENING TO BECOME LIGHT W SUNDAY.
FLOW WILL BECOME SSW 10 TO 15 KTS MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
E. SEAS WL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH POSS SOME 5
FOOTERS FAR OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS. AS SSW WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT
EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT AND THEY WILL CONT IN THAT RANGE
THRU SAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WNW. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE SUN AND MON
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH 2 TO 3 FT MOST WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...TL/RF
MARINE...TL/RF









000
FXUS62 KMHX 011900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE AS SIMILAR PATTERN OVER E NC AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. X-OVER TEMPS WILL BE EXCEEDED ONCE AGAIN
WITH DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN. BEST BET FOR FOG
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SAME PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES IDENTICAL TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SFC HIGH PRES TO BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD SO WINDS LIGHT AND VAR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING TO A 2-3K FT SCT STRATO CU DECK
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CONT DRY WEATHER THRU FRI AS MID/UPR RDG
CROSSES. FRI WL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W FRI NIGHT AND CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORN. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA WILL CROSS LATER FRI
NIGHT THEN EXIT THE CST EARLY SAT. CONT LIKELY POPS LATE FRI
NIGHT...SVR THREAT CONTS TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LIMITED
INSTAB OVER THE REGION. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD FRI NIGHT WITH 65 TO 70 MOST SPOTS. WITH CAA DELAYED A
BIT SAT THINK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN SAT AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...LOWS SUN MORN WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 40S COOLER INLAND
SPOTS WITH HIGHS SUN MAINLY 65 TO 70. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONT DRY WX MON THRU WED. TEMPS WILL
GRAD MODERATE WITH UPR 70S FOR HIGHS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THUR AM AS SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN EXISTS OVER EAST NC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THURSDAY
WITH ANY FOG AND STRATUS MIXING OUT TO A SCT 2-3 K FT STRATO CU
DECK BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE SOME FOG/ST AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING S/SW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WITH SOME OCNL REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA WILL MOVE E OF TAF SAT BY EARLY SAT WITH VFR REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S AND MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...CURRENT OBS INDICATE N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER NRN/CENTRAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL
BASE FCST ON THIS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING A BIT IN STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES. WIND WILL GRAD BECOME S AT 10 TO 15 KTS LATER FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL PEAK 15 TO 25 KTS FRI
NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT THEN SHIFT TO WNW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT AFTN. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S SAT NIGHT AND SUN
EXPECT NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SAT EVENING TO BECOME LIGHT W SUNDAY.
FLOW WILL BECOME SSW 10 TO 15 KTS MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
E. SEAS WL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH POSS SOME 5
FOOTERS FAR OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS. AS SSW WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT
EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT AND THEY WILL CONT IN THAT RANGE
THRU SAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WNW. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE SUN AND MON
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH 2 TO 3 FT MOST WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...TL/RF
MARINE...TL/RF










000
FXUS62 KRAH 011850
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011850
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY... THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...V/PWB
NEAR TERM...V
SHORT TERM...V
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...V




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY... THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...V/PWB
NEAR TERM...V
SHORT TERM...V
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...V



000
FXUS62 KILM 011727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...A PLEASANT START TO OCTOBER WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND A STORM SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE
EXITING NORTHEASTWARD. LOCALLY THIS BRINGS A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE TO
KEEP DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLE ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW KEEPING THINGS DRY UPSTAIRS FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND A CLEAR
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR NEARLY TWO
WEEKS IS FINALLY COMING TO AN END. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING. THURSDAY...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED UP AND DOWN
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE STILL
HAS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LOCALLY- A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT
WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 011727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...A PLEASANT START TO OCTOBER WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND A STORM SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE
EXITING NORTHEASTWARD. LOCALLY THIS BRINGS A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE TO
KEEP DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLE ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW KEEPING THINGS DRY UPSTAIRS FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND A CLEAR
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR NEARLY TWO
WEEKS IS FINALLY COMING TO AN END. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING. THURSDAY...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED UP AND DOWN
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE STILL
HAS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LOCALLY- A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT
WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KRAH 011523
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011523
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011523
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011523
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011432
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1032 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES DIGGING SE THROUGH VA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD
PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA THROUGH THIS AFT/EVE...THOUGH ONE
WOULD EXPECT SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST TO THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...WHILE THE LATEST GFS
GUIDANCE IS DRY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...
MARGINAL/SHALLOW INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT)...AND
INCREASING SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST. A MORE RIGOROUS
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z NAM IS ONGOING AND WILL BE COMPLETED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR CEILINGS BY ~16Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT ENTIRELY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011432
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1032 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES DIGGING SE THROUGH VA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD
PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA THROUGH THIS AFT/EVE...THOUGH ONE
WOULD EXPECT SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST TO THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...WHILE THE LATEST GFS
GUIDANCE IS DRY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...
MARGINAL/SHALLOW INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT)...AND
INCREASING SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST. A MORE RIGOROUS
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z NAM IS ONGOING AND WILL BE COMPLETED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR CEILINGS BY ~16Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT ENTIRELY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 011406
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...A PLEASANT START TO OCTOBER WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND A STORM SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE
EXITING NORTHEASTWARD. LOCALLY THIS BRINGS A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE TO
KEEP DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLE ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW KEEPING THINGS DRY UPSTAIRS FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND A CLEAR
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z...WITH THE
WORST SPOTS BECOMING VFR AFTER 14Z. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ONCE AGAIN
WILL CONTINUE...FINALLY BEING REPLACED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED UP AND DOWN
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE STILL
HAS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LOCALLY- A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT
WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43









000
FXUS62 KILM 011406
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...A PLEASANT START TO OCTOBER WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND A STORM SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE
EXITING NORTHEASTWARD. LOCALLY THIS BRINGS A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE TO
KEEP DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLE ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW KEEPING THINGS DRY UPSTAIRS FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND A CLEAR
NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z...WITH THE
WORST SPOTS BECOMING VFR AFTER 14Z. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ONCE AGAIN
WILL CONTINUE...FINALLY BEING REPLACED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED UP AND DOWN
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE STILL
HAS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LOCALLY- A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT
WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KMHX 011400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG MIXING OUT AT THIS HOUR AND
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCT 2K FT STRATO CU DECK BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT
DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW
ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS
THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 011400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG MIXING OUT AT THIS HOUR AND
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCT 2K FT STRATO CU DECK BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT
DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW
ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS
THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 011115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM WED...LOW FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY
9AM EDT. DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 011115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM WED...LOW FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY
9AM EDT. DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 011115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM WED...LOW FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY
9AM EDT. DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 011115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM WED...LOW FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY
9AM EDT. DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL SITE UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING. AFTER
THIS TIME... EXPECT A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION. RENEWED MVFR OR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
STARTING SOON AFTER 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN TODAY... AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CLOUDS COULD CURB
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY LAST
UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z THU MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY
FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT
AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL SITE UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING. AFTER
THIS TIME... EXPECT A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION. RENEWED MVFR OR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
STARTING SOON AFTER 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN TODAY... AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CLOUDS COULD CURB
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY LAST
UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z THU MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY
FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT
AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL SITE UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING. AFTER
THIS TIME... EXPECT A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION. RENEWED MVFR OR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
STARTING SOON AFTER 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN TODAY... AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CLOUDS COULD CURB
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY LAST
UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z THU MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY
FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT
AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL SITE UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING. AFTER
THIS TIME... EXPECT A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION. RENEWED MVFR OR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
STARTING SOON AFTER 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN TODAY... AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CLOUDS COULD CURB
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY LAST
UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z THU MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY
FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT
AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KILM 011053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUED SPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY A TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE REGION WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
ABOVE 800MB YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST READING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z...WITH THE
WORST SPOTS BECOMING VFR AFTER 14Z. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ONCE AGAIN
WILL CONTINUE...FINALLY BEING REPLACED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT
WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43






000
FXUS62 KILM 011046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY A TEMP FORECAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE REGION WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE COLUMN WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 800MB YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST READING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z...WITH THE
WORST SPOTS BECOMING VFR AFTER 14Z. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ONCE AGAIN
WILL CONTINUE...FINALLY BEING REPLACED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS NOW FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KMHX 010728
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINT EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FOG FOR MORNING COMMUTE IN HWO AND MAY
ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING IF CONDITIONS PERSIST/WORSEN. ANY
FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F
ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...FOG HAS DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH
12-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS DECOUPLED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FELL
QUICKLY TO NEAR DEWPOINT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3
DEGREES ACROSS AREA TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z. FOG AND STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT ONCE OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS THOUGH SEAS COULD
BUILD 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
DUE TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010728
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINT EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FOG FOR MORNING COMMUTE IN HWO AND MAY
ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING IF CONDITIONS PERSIST/WORSEN. ANY
FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F
ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...FOG HAS DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH
12-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS DECOUPLED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FELL
QUICKLY TO NEAR DEWPOINT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3
DEGREES ACROSS AREA TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z. FOG AND STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT ONCE OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS THOUGH SEAS COULD
BUILD 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
DUE TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KRAH 010655
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010655
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 010655
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY A TEMP FORECAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE REGION WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE COLUMN WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 800MB YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST READING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE MOMENT BUT
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN PLACE.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE RELATED TO VSBYS...AND EXPECT THE FOG
PRIMARILY TO BE A FACTOR AT INLAND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS NOW FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SRP







000
FXUS62 KRAH 010655
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 010655
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY A TEMP FORECAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE REGION WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE COLUMN WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 800MB YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST READING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE MOMENT BUT
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN PLACE.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE RELATED TO VSBYS...AND EXPECT THE FOG
PRIMARILY TO BE A FACTOR AT INLAND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS NOW FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SRP







000
FXUS62 KILM 010655
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY A TEMP FORECAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE REGION WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE COLUMN WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 800MB YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST READING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE MOMENT BUT
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN PLACE.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE RELATED TO VSBYS...AND EXPECT THE FOG
PRIMARILY TO BE A FACTOR AT INLAND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS NOW FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SRP








000
FXUS62 KRAH 010654
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

FROM 235 PM TUESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD
ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.
LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400 MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS
FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-
0.50".  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010638
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010638
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
154 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINT EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FOG FOR MORNING COMMUTE IN HWO AND MAY
ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING IF CONDITIONS PERSIST/WORSEN. ANY
FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F
ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...FOG HAS DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH
12-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS DECOUPLED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FELL
QUICKLY TO NEAR DEWPOINT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3
DEGREES ACROSS AREA TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z. FOG AND STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI WITH
TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/STRATUS. COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING TO BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT ONCE OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS THOUGH SEAS COULD
BUILD 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
DUE TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER THU.
WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS LATE FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET...POSS STILL
SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WATERS. S/SW WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WATERS. FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5
FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST LATE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
154 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINT EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FOG FOR MORNING COMMUTE IN HWO AND MAY
ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING IF CONDITIONS PERSIST/WORSEN. ANY
FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F
ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...FOG HAS DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH
12-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS DECOUPLED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FELL
QUICKLY TO NEAR DEWPOINT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3
DEGREES ACROSS AREA TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z. FOG AND STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI WITH
TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/STRATUS. COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING TO BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT ONCE OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS THOUGH SEAS COULD
BUILD 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
DUE TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER THU.
WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS LATE FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET...POSS STILL
SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WATERS. S/SW WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WATERS. FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5
FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST LATE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN... AGAIN POTENTIALLY
DENSE.

IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY TO DISSOLVE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THE END
RESULT WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. DEW POINTS FAILED TO MIX OUT AND DRY
AND WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID LOW LEVEL INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING WITH THE
LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... CLEAR SKIES... AND STRONG DIURNAL
TEMP FALL WITH SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT MID-EVENING
FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX. THERE ARE
REPORTS OF FOG ALREADY IN THIS REGION... SOME LOCALLY BECOMING DENSE
(1/4 MILE VSBY OR LESS). WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT TEMP SPREAD ALREADY
LESS THAN 3 DEGREES... FOG APPEARS INEVITABLE.

ELSEWHERE... AFTERNOON SUN LED TO SOME DECENT EVAPORATION AND LED TO
HIGHS AROUND 80. THERE WAS ENOUGH MIXING IN THAT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WAS SLOWER TO SET UP FROM GREENSBORO AND
SOUTH AND WEST.

BOTTOM LINE... FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST
TO ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IF THE DENSE FOG IS THOUGHT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TO
BECOME A HAZARD TO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL TREND
TOWARD THAT SCENARIO BY PLACING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS 55-60 WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST AND SOUTH. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS A STATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
AGAIN WED... AND MAY LINGER AGAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE NE
ZONES. -PWB

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN... AGAIN POTENTIALLY
DENSE.

IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY TO DISSOLVE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THE END
RESULT WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. DEW POINTS FAILED TO MIX OUT AND DRY
AND WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID LOW LEVEL INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING WITH THE
LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... CLEAR SKIES... AND STRONG DIURNAL
TEMP FALL WITH SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT MID-EVENING
FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX. THERE ARE
REPORTS OF FOG ALREADY IN THIS REGION... SOME LOCALLY BECOMING DENSE
(1/4 MILE VSBY OR LESS). WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT TEMP SPREAD ALREADY
LESS THAN 3 DEGREES... FOG APPEARS INEVITABLE.

ELSEWHERE... AFTERNOON SUN LED TO SOME DECENT EVAPORATION AND LED TO
HIGHS AROUND 80. THERE WAS ENOUGH MIXING IN THAT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WAS SLOWER TO SET UP FROM GREENSBORO AND
SOUTH AND WEST.

BOTTOM LINE... FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST
TO ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IF THE DENSE FOG IS THOUGHT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TO
BECOME A HAZARD TO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL TREND
TOWARD THAT SCENARIO BY PLACING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS 55-60 WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST AND SOUTH. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS A STATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
AGAIN WED... AND MAY LINGER AGAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE NE
ZONES. -PWB

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KILM 010525
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL IE. NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE A DECENT SFC BASED INVERSION TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR 0 SFC TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD. AS A
RESULT...WILL AGAIN HIT THE FOG HARDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL ILLUSTRATE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBY 1 MILE OR LESS. DENSE FOG
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AND WILL ATLEAST HIGHLIGHT IT IN AN UPDATED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED TONIGHTS LOWS UPWARDS
BY A DEGREE OR 3 GIVEN LESS THAN 2 DEGREE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 6K FT
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY THE WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR SKY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W OR
IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE NW DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS. THE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING IT WILL RESULT IN HIGH STRATOCU
OR LOW ALTO-CU CLOUDS AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WELL UPSTREAM
FROM US. WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE ILM CWA
AT DAYBREAK WED. HAVE HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER...MAINLY TO OCCUR
FROM 06Z THROUGH AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER DENSE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH A
LOT DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS BECOME. A SOMEWHAT SOFT PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED
GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...WHICH WILL AID THE FOG ISSUE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED
THURSDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE MOMENT BUT
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN PLACE.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE RELATED TO VSBYS...AND EXPECT THE FOG
PRIMARILY TO BE A FACTOR AT INLAND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT SUPPORT NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH 15 KT PUSHING IT
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS MAINLY OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
REMAIN 1 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST OFF CAPE FEAR. A GROUND SWELL...ALBEIT
SMALL AT AROUND 1 FT...REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS VIA
BUOY REPORTS. WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS NOT REALLY IDENTIFYING
THIS 14 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY GROUND SWELL...BUT REMAINS A
CONTRIBUTOR TO OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NAM REMAINS THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. AS A RESULT...WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE NAM WIND OUTPUT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT NNE-NE WINDS AT 10 KT...TO
OCCASIONALLY 15 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT SOME 1 FOOTERS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO MYRTLE BEACH WHERE AN OFFSHORE WIND
TRAJECTORY RESIDES. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS
WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. HOWEVER... A 1 FOOT...13-15
SECOND PERIOD...EASTERLY GROUND SWELL HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY LOCAL
AND VICINITY BUOYS AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ILM COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 010525
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL IE. NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE A DECENT SFC BASED INVERSION TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR 0 SFC TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD. AS A
RESULT...WILL AGAIN HIT THE FOG HARDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL ILLUSTRATE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBY 1 MILE OR LESS. DENSE FOG
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AND WILL ATLEAST HIGHLIGHT IT IN AN UPDATED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED TONIGHTS LOWS UPWARDS
BY A DEGREE OR 3 GIVEN LESS THAN 2 DEGREE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 6K FT
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY THE WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR SKY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W OR
IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE NW DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS. THE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING IT WILL RESULT IN HIGH STRATOCU
OR LOW ALTO-CU CLOUDS AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WELL UPSTREAM
FROM US. WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE ILM CWA
AT DAYBREAK WED. HAVE HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER...MAINLY TO OCCUR
FROM 06Z THROUGH AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER DENSE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH A
LOT DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS BECOME. A SOMEWHAT SOFT PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED
GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...WHICH WILL AID THE FOG ISSUE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED
THURSDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE MOMENT BUT
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN PLACE.
RESTRICTIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE RELATED TO VSBYS...AND EXPECT THE FOG
PRIMARILY TO BE A FACTOR AT INLAND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
INLAND TERMINALS AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT SUPPORT NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH 15 KT PUSHING IT
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS MAINLY OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
REMAIN 1 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST OFF CAPE FEAR. A GROUND SWELL...ALBEIT
SMALL AT AROUND 1 FT...REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS VIA
BUOY REPORTS. WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS NOT REALLY IDENTIFYING
THIS 14 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY GROUND SWELL...BUT REMAINS A
CONTRIBUTOR TO OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NAM REMAINS THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. AS A RESULT...WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE NAM WIND OUTPUT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT NNE-NE WINDS AT 10 KT...TO
OCCASIONALLY 15 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT SOME 1 FOOTERS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO MYRTLE BEACH WHERE AN OFFSHORE WIND
TRAJECTORY RESIDES. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS
WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. HOWEVER... A 1 FOOT...13-15
SECOND PERIOD...EASTERLY GROUND SWELL HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY LOCAL
AND VICINITY BUOYS AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ILM COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 010321
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1121 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL IE. NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE A DECENT SFC BASED INVERSION TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR 0 SFC TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD. AS A
RESULT...WILL AGAIN HIT THE FOG HARDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL ILLUSTRATE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBY 1 MILE OR LESS. DENSE FOG
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AND WILL ATLEAST HIGHLIGHT IT IN AN UPDATED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED TONIGHTS LOWS UPWARDS
BY A DEGREE OR 3 GIVEN LESS THAN 2 DEGREE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...SOME TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 6K FT
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY THE WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR SKY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W OR
IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE NW DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS. THE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING IT WILL RESULT IN HIGH STRATOCU
OR LOW ALTO-CU CLOUDS AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WELL UPSTREAM
FROM US. WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE ILM
CWA AT DAYBREAK WED. HAVE HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER...MAINLY
TO OCCUR FROM 06Z THROUGH AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER DENSE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
WITH ALOT DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS BECOME. A SOMEWHAT SOFT PRESSURE PATTERN AND
RELAXED GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHICH WILL AID THE FOG ISSUE INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING YIELDING TO A TYPICAL LATE
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. A BIT OF A BREEZE LEADING UP TO SUNSET ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE WELL
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SET UP A SURFACE-BASED COOLING LAYER THAT WILL
INHIBIT MIXING AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF. A CONTINUATION OF THE
LESSENING OF WIND OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME CALM WINDS INLAND
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
WITH SOME MUCH MORE MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED
THURSDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT TAFS WILL BE TWEAKED FOR CLOUD COVER/WINDS FOR
THE EVENING PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

VFR THIS EVENING. MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND VERY NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHTEST INLAND
TERMINALS...THUS BEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KLBT AND
KFLO. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR/LIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY
KCRE...BUT BELIEVE THERE A BIT MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR. SINCE FOG
SHOULD BE SHALLOW IT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...
14Z AT THE LATEST. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS EXCEPT BECOMING SE AT KCRE/KMYR IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT SUPPORT NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH 15 KT PUSHING IT
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS MAINLY OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
REMAIN 1 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST OFF CAPE FEAR. A GROUND SWELL...ALBEIT
SMALL AT AROUND 1 FT...REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS VIA
BUOY REPORTS. WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS NOT REALLY IDENTIFYING
THIS 14 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY GROUND SWELL...BUT REMAINS A
CONTRIBUTOR TO OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...THE NAM REMAINS THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...THAT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. AS A RESULT...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM WIND OUTPUT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT NNE-NE WINDS
AT 10 KT...TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT
SOME 1 FOOTERS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO MYRTLE BEACH WHERE
AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY RESIDES. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH 4 TO 6
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. HOWEVER... A 1
FOOT...13-15 SECOND PERIOD...EASTERLY GROUND SWELL HAS BEEN
IDENTIFIED BY LOCAL AND VICINITY BUOYS AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ILM COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL PINCH IN THE GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF THE COAST. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY DROP TO JUST
10KT TOWARDS ITS END. AS SUCH ANY 4 FT WAVES SHOULD DROP OFF AND
SEAS WILL TEND TO BE CAPPED AT 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 010321
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1121 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL IE. NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE A DECENT SFC BASED INVERSION TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR 0 SFC TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD. AS A
RESULT...WILL AGAIN HIT THE FOG HARDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL ILLUSTRATE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBY 1 MILE OR LESS. DENSE FOG
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AND WILL ATLEAST HIGHLIGHT IT IN AN UPDATED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED TONIGHTS LOWS UPWARDS
BY A DEGREE OR 3 GIVEN LESS THAN 2 DEGREE SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ALREADY AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...SOME TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 6K FT
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY THE WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR SKY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W OR
IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE NW DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS. THE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING IT WILL RESULT IN HIGH STRATOCU
OR LOW ALTO-CU CLOUDS AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WELL UPSTREAM
FROM US. WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE ILM
CWA AT DAYBREAK WED. HAVE HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER...MAINLY
TO OCCUR FROM 06Z THROUGH AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER DENSE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
WITH ALOT DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS BECOME. A SOMEWHAT SOFT PRESSURE PATTERN AND
RELAXED GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHICH WILL AID THE FOG ISSUE INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING YIELDING TO A TYPICAL LATE
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. A BIT OF A BREEZE LEADING UP TO SUNSET ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE WELL
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SET UP A SURFACE-BASED COOLING LAYER THAT WILL
INHIBIT MIXING AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF. A CONTINUATION OF THE
LESSENING OF WIND OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME CALM WINDS INLAND
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
WITH SOME MUCH MORE MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED
THURSDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT TAFS WILL BE TWEAKED FOR CLOUD COVER/WINDS FOR
THE EVENING PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

VFR THIS EVENING. MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND VERY NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHTEST INLAND
TERMINALS...THUS BEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KLBT AND
KFLO. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR/LIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY
KCRE...BUT BELIEVE THERE A BIT MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR. SINCE FOG
SHOULD BE SHALLOW IT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...
14Z AT THE LATEST. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS EXCEPT BECOMING SE AT KCRE/KMYR IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT AND PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND GRADIENT SUPPORT NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH 15 KT PUSHING IT
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS MAINLY OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
REMAIN 1 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST OFF CAPE FEAR. A GROUND SWELL...ALBEIT
SMALL AT AROUND 1 FT...REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS VIA
BUOY REPORTS. WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS NOT REALLY IDENTIFYING
THIS 14 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY GROUND SWELL...BUT REMAINS A
CONTRIBUTOR TO OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...THE NAM REMAINS THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...THAT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. AS A RESULT...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM WIND OUTPUT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT NNE-NE WINDS
AT 10 KT...TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT
SOME 1 FOOTERS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO MYRTLE BEACH WHERE
AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY RESIDES. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH 4 TO 6
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. HOWEVER... A 1
FOOT...13-15 SECOND PERIOD...EASTERLY GROUND SWELL HAS BEEN
IDENTIFIED BY LOCAL AND VICINITY BUOYS AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ILM COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL PINCH IN THE GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF THE COAST. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY DROP TO JUST
10KT TOWARDS ITS END. AS SUCH ANY 4 FT WAVES SHOULD DROP OFF AND
SEAS WILL TEND TO BE CAPPED AT 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KMHX 010158
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT N TO NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15 KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010158
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT N TO NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15 KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010158
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT N TO NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15 KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010158
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT N TO NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15 KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF






000
FXUS62 KRAH 010140
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN... AGAIN POTENTIALLY
DENSE.

IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY TO DISSOLVE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THE END
RESULT WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. DEW POINTS FAILED TO MIX OUT AND DRY
AND WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID LOW LEVEL INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING WITH THE
LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... CLEAR SKIES... AND STRONG DIURNAL
TEMP FALL WITH SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT MID-EVENING
FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX. THERE ARE
REPORTS OF FOG ALREADY IN THIS REGION... SOME LOCALLY BECOMING DENSE
(1/4 MILE VSBY OR LESS). WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT TEMP SPREAD ALREADY
LESS THAN 3 DEGREES... FOG APPEARS INEVITABLE.

ELSEWHERE... AFTERNOON SUN LED TO SOME DECENT EVAPORATION AND LED TO
HIGHS AROUND 80. THERE WAS ENOUGH MIXING IN THAT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WAS SLOWER TO SET UP FROM GREENSBORO AND
SOUTH AND WEST.

BOTTOM LINE... FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST
TO ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IF THE DENSE FOG IS THOUGHT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TO
BECOME A HAZARD TO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL TREND
TOWARD THAT SCENARIO BY PLACING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS 55-60 WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST AND SOUTH. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS A STATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
AGAIN WED... AND MAY LINGER AGAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE NE
ZONES. -PWB

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT A SURE BET AS MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT (WITH ONE SHOWING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL NIGHT). NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN A SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST NIGHT
(MINUS THE LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY)...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT THE TRIAD WHERE
THERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (BUT STILL INCLUDED SOME SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND
EARLY SAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010140
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN... AGAIN POTENTIALLY
DENSE.

IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY TO DISSOLVE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THE END
RESULT WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. DEW POINTS FAILED TO MIX OUT AND DRY
AND WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID LOW LEVEL INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING WITH THE
LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... CLEAR SKIES... AND STRONG DIURNAL
TEMP FALL WITH SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT MID-EVENING
FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX. THERE ARE
REPORTS OF FOG ALREADY IN THIS REGION... SOME LOCALLY BECOMING DENSE
(1/4 MILE VSBY OR LESS). WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT TEMP SPREAD ALREADY
LESS THAN 3 DEGREES... FOG APPEARS INEVITABLE.

ELSEWHERE... AFTERNOON SUN LED TO SOME DECENT EVAPORATION AND LED TO
HIGHS AROUND 80. THERE WAS ENOUGH MIXING IN THAT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WAS SLOWER TO SET UP FROM GREENSBORO AND
SOUTH AND WEST.

BOTTOM LINE... FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST
TO ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IF THE DENSE FOG IS THOUGHT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TO
BECOME A HAZARD TO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL TREND
TOWARD THAT SCENARIO BY PLACING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS 55-60 WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST AND SOUTH. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS A STATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
AGAIN WED... AND MAY LINGER AGAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE NE
ZONES. -PWB

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT A SURE BET AS MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT (WITH ONE SHOWING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL NIGHT). NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN A SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST NIGHT
(MINUS THE LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY)...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT THE TRIAD WHERE
THERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (BUT STILL INCLUDED SOME SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND
EARLY SAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KILM 010012
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
812 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...SOME TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 6K FT
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY THE WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR SKY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W OR
IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE NW DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS. THE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING IT WILL RESULT IN HIGH STRATOCU
OR LOW ALTO-CU CLOUDS AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WELL UPSTREAM
FROM US. WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE ILM
CWA AT DAYBREAK WED. HAVE HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER...MAINLY
TO OCCUR FROM 06Z THROUGH AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER DENSE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
WITH ALOT DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS BECOME. A SOMEWHAT SOFT PRESSURE PATTERN AND
RELAXED GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHICH WILL AID THE FOG ISSUE INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING YIELDING TO A TYPICAL LATE
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. A BIT OF A BREEZE LEADING UP TO SUNSET ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE WELL
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SET UP A SURFACE-BASED COOLING LAYER THAT WILL
INHIBIT MIXING AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF. A CONTINUATION OF THE
LESSENING OF WIND OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME CALM WINDS INLAND
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
WITH SOME MUCH MORE MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED
THURSDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT TAFS WILL BE TWEAKED FOR CLOUD COVER/WINDS FOR
THE EVENING PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

VFR THIS EVENING. MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND VERY NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHTEST INLAND
TERMINALS...THUS BEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KLBT AND
KFLO. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR/LIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY
KCRE...BUT BELIEVE THERE A BIT MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR. SINCE FOG
SHOULD BE SHALLOW IT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...
14Z AT THE LATEST. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS EXCEPT BECOMING SE AT KCRE/KMYR IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...THE NAM REMAINS THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...THAT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. AS A RESULT...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM WIND OUTPUT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT NNE-NE WINDS
AT 10 KT...TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT
SOME 1 FOOTERS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO MYRTLE BEACH WHERE
AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY RESIDES. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH 4 TO 6
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. HOWEVER...
A 1 FOOT...13-15 SECOND PERIOD...EASTERLY GROUND SWELL HAS BEEN
IDENTIFIED BY LOCAL AND VICINITY BUOYS AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ILM COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL PINCH IN THE GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF THE COAST. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY DROP TO JUST
10KT TOWARDS ITS END. AS SUCH ANY 4 FT WAVES SHOULD DROP OFF AND
SEAS WILL TEND TO BE CAPPED AT 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 010012
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
812 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...SOME TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 6K FT
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY THE WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR SKY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W OR
IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE NW DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS. THE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING IT WILL RESULT IN HIGH STRATOCU
OR LOW ALTO-CU CLOUDS AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WELL UPSTREAM
FROM US. WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE ILM
CWA AT DAYBREAK WED. HAVE HIT THE FOG A LITTLE HARDER...MAINLY
TO OCCUR FROM 06Z THROUGH AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER DENSE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
WITH ALOT DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS BECOME. A SOMEWHAT SOFT PRESSURE PATTERN AND
RELAXED GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH CALM WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHICH WILL AID THE FOG ISSUE INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING YIELDING TO A TYPICAL LATE
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. A BIT OF A BREEZE LEADING UP TO SUNSET ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE WELL
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SET UP A SURFACE-BASED COOLING LAYER THAT WILL
INHIBIT MIXING AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF. A CONTINUATION OF THE
LESSENING OF WIND OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME CALM WINDS INLAND
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
WITH SOME MUCH MORE MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED
THURSDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT TAFS WILL BE TWEAKED FOR CLOUD COVER/WINDS FOR
THE EVENING PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

VFR THIS EVENING. MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND VERY NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHTEST INLAND
TERMINALS...THUS BEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KLBT AND
KFLO. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR/LIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY
KCRE...BUT BELIEVE THERE A BIT MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR. SINCE FOG
SHOULD BE SHALLOW IT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...
14Z AT THE LATEST. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS EXCEPT BECOMING SE AT KCRE/KMYR IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...THE NAM REMAINS THE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...THAT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. AS A RESULT...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM WIND OUTPUT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT NNE-NE WINDS
AT 10 KT...TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT
SOME 1 FOOTERS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO MYRTLE BEACH WHERE
AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY RESIDES. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH 4 TO 6
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. HOWEVER...
A 1 FOOT...13-15 SECOND PERIOD...EASTERLY GROUND SWELL HAS BEEN
IDENTIFIED BY LOCAL AND VICINITY BUOYS AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ILM COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................................
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL PINCH IN THE GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF THE COAST. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY DROP TO JUST
10KT TOWARDS ITS END. AS SUCH ANY 4 FT WAVES SHOULD DROP OFF AND
SEAS WILL TEND TO BE CAPPED AT 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
809 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT A SURE BET AS MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT (WITH ONE SHOWING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL NIGHT). NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN A SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST NIGHT
(MINUS THE LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY)...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT THE TRIAD WHERE
THERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (BUT STILL INCLUDED SOME SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND
EARLY SAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
809 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT A SURE BET AS MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT (WITH ONE SHOWING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL NIGHT). NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN A SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST NIGHT
(MINUS THE LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY)...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT THE TRIAD WHERE
THERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (BUT STILL INCLUDED SOME SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND
EARLY SAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KILM 302330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING YIELDING TO A TYPICAL LATE
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. A BIT OF A BREEZE LEADING UP TO SUNSET ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE WELL
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SET UP A SURFACE-BASED COOLING LAYER THAT WILL
INHIBIT MIXING AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF. A CONTINUATION OF THE
LESSENING OF WIND OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME CALM WINDS INLAND
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
WITH SOME MUCH MORE MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED
THURSDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT TAFS WILL BE TWEAKED FOR CLOUD COVER/WINDS FOR
THE EVENING PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

VFR THIS EVENING. MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND VERY NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHTEST INLAND
TERMINALS...THUS BEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KLBT AND
KFLO. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR/LIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY
KCRE...BUT BELIEVE THERE A BIT MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR. SINCE FOG
SHOULD BE SHALLOW IT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...
14Z AT THE LATEST. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS EXCEPT BECOMING SE AT KCRE/KMYR IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL PINCH IN THE GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF THE COAST. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY DROP TO JUST
10KT TOWARDS ITS END. AS SUCH ANY 4 FT WAVES SHOULD DROP OFF AND
SEAS WILL TEND TO BE CAPPED AT 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 302330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING YIELDING TO A TYPICAL LATE
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. A BIT OF A BREEZE LEADING UP TO SUNSET ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE WELL
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SET UP A SURFACE-BASED COOLING LAYER THAT WILL
INHIBIT MIXING AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF. A CONTINUATION OF THE
LESSENING OF WIND OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME CALM WINDS INLAND
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
WITH SOME MUCH MORE MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED
THURSDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT TAFS WILL BE TWEAKED FOR CLOUD COVER/WINDS FOR
THE EVENING PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

VFR THIS EVENING. MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND VERY NEAR THE SURFACE WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHTEST INLAND
TERMINALS...THUS BEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KLBT AND
KFLO. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR/LIFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY
KCRE...BUT BELIEVE THERE A BIT MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR. SINCE FOG
SHOULD BE SHALLOW IT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...
14Z AT THE LATEST. VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS EXCEPT BECOMING SE AT KCRE/KMYR IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL PINCH IN THE GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF THE COAST. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY DROP TO JUST
10KT TOWARDS ITS END. AS SUCH ANY 4 FT WAVES SHOULD DROP OFF AND
SEAS WILL TEND TO BE CAPPED AT 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KMHX 302302
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF






000
FXUS62 KMHX 302302
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 301900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PLEASANT LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER ACROSS E NC.
TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 MOST AREAS. SCT
DIURNAL STRATO CU CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE WINDS COURTESY OF
LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS. WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING.
CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING
AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID 60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST
NIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED
BY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS 2-3FT.
WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES AWAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCNL
GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO AS
HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...TL/RF
MARINE...TL/RF









000
FXUS62 KMHX 301900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PLEASANT LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER ACROSS E NC.
TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 MOST AREAS. SCT
DIURNAL STRATO CU CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE WINDS COURTESY OF
LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS. WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING.
CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING
AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID 60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST
NIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED
BY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS 2-3FT.
WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES AWAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCNL
GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO AS
HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...TL/RF
MARINE...TL/RF










000
FXUS62 KILM 301856
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING YIELDING TO A TYPICAL LATE
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. A BIT OF A BREEZE LEADING UP TO SUNSET ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE WELL
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP A SURFACE-BASED COOLING LAYER THAT WILL INHIBIT MIXING
AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF. A CONTINUATION OF THE LESSENING OF WIND
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME CALM WINDS INLAND DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MUCH MORE
MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD
OR DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY...THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME FAIR WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY VEERING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK RESULTANT. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING
CALM WITH A MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. LBT AND FLO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT THE COAST. ANY FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY...14Z AT THE LATEST
WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...NORTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR SAT AND
SUN WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL PINCH IN THE GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF THE COAST. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY DROP TO JUST
10KT TOWARDS ITS END. AS SUCH ANY 4 FT WAVES SHOULD DROP OFF AND
SEAS WILL TEND TO BE CAPPED AT 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 301856
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING YIELDING TO A TYPICAL LATE
SEPTEMBER NIGHT. A BIT OF A BREEZE LEADING UP TO SUNSET ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE WELL
OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP A SURFACE-BASED COOLING LAYER THAT WILL INHIBIT MIXING
AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF. A CONTINUATION OF THE LESSENING OF WIND
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME CALM WINDS INLAND DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MUCH MORE
MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD
OR DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY...THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK AND EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST. LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MAXIMIZED...MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DESPITE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL THINK ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES...BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO FLOODING IS
NOT A CONCERN.

THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AND 850 TEMP DROPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850
TEMPS DROP FROM AROUND 16C LATE FRI NIGHT TO AS LOW AS 4C BY SUN
MORNING. GFS/ECMWF SHOW DECENT COLD SURGE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY
SAT. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HIGHS SAT. TEMPS RISE INITIALLY SAT MORNING THEN START
FALLING DURING THE MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
ARE TO BE BELIEVED. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
LOWS AGAIN FLIRTING WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS OPPOSED TO COLD ADVECTION. DEEP DRY AIR WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK NEAR CLIMO MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUE BUT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FRONT LACKS MOISTURE AS WELL AS STRONG FORCING
AND ITS PASSAGE MAY END UP BEING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME FAIR WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY VEERING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK RESULTANT. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING
CALM WITH A MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. LBT AND FLO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT THE COAST. ANY FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY...14Z AT THE LATEST
WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...NORTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR SAT AND
SUN WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL PINCH IN THE GRADIENT FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF THE COAST. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY DROP TO JUST
10KT TOWARDS ITS END. AS SUCH ANY 4 FT WAVES SHOULD DROP OFF AND
SEAS WILL TEND TO BE CAPPED AT 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STILL BE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE...THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING WINDS MORE OFFSHORE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2
FT OR LESS...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HEADLINES. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY END UP JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE FRONT
ARRIVES BUT AT THE VERY LEAST A SCEC SHOULD BE REQUIRED. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG COLD SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE TO KICK UP NORTHWEST FLOW LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
15 TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BUT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN
20 NM 2 TO 4 FT AT MOST. GRADIENT RELAXES SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY
MIDDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL
DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/DL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301837
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301837
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301837
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301837
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 301722
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...DRY AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE REGION A BIT
QUICKER THAN PLANNED AS PER 12Z MHX SOUNDING AS WELL AS LOOKING OUT
THE WINDOW AT THE CLEAR SKIES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH A HIGH CLOSE TO 80 AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK WED THROUGH THURS.
AT THE SAME TIME A FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE E-SE AND LIGHTENING UP AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TIME. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LITTLE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS LATER ON WED AND SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE BOTH AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH EARLY
FALL SUNSHINE.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS THROUGH THE DAY. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW
AS AN INCH FRI MORNING WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES UP TO 2
INCHES BY AFTN OVER INLAND AREAS AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS PROVIDES A
DECENT FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS INLAND BY AFTN AND REACHING THE COAST
BY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING FRONT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DOES BECOME
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS REACHING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY DELAY THE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW TO
PRODUCE SOME EXCEPTIONAL FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW
50 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS
IN TEMPS WITH COOL START TO THE MORNINGS SUN AND MON AND TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES FOR AFTN HIGHS WITH BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO A HALF INCH OR LESS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S SUN AND
MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME FAIR WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY VEERING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK RESULTANT. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING
CALM WITH A MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. LBT AND FLO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT THE COAST. ANY FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY...14Z AT THE LATEST
WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...NORTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR SAT AND
SUN WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES:

AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST. SEAS ARE LIKELY 3-5 FT
AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 2 FT NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT IN A RELAXED GRADIENT..STARTING OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
VEERING AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND EVENTUALLY SE BY FRI
MORNING AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH TIME. NEAR SHORE WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CAUSING A SLIGHT SPIKE IN
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE 3 FT OR
LESS...SUBSIDING A BIT FROM WED TO THURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AN INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO
15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRI EVE. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP
FROM AROUND 2 FT EARLY FRI TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. MAY RUN
INTO A FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW REMAINING UP TO 15 KTS INITIALLY
BUT LIGHTENING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
LOCAL WATERS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 301722
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...DRY AIR HAS SWEPT INTO THE REGION A BIT
QUICKER THAN PLANNED AS PER 12Z MHX SOUNDING AS WELL AS LOOKING OUT
THE WINDOW AT THE CLEAR SKIES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH A HIGH CLOSE TO 80 AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK WED THROUGH THURS.
AT THE SAME TIME A FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE E-SE AND LIGHTENING UP AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TIME. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LITTLE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS LATER ON WED AND SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE BOTH AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH EARLY
FALL SUNSHINE.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS THROUGH THE DAY. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW
AS AN INCH FRI MORNING WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES UP TO 2
INCHES BY AFTN OVER INLAND AREAS AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS PROVIDES A
DECENT FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS INLAND BY AFTN AND REACHING THE COAST
BY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING FRONT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DOES BECOME
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS REACHING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY DELAY THE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW TO
PRODUCE SOME EXCEPTIONAL FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW
50 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS
IN TEMPS WITH COOL START TO THE MORNINGS SUN AND MON AND TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES FOR AFTN HIGHS WITH BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO A HALF INCH OR LESS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S SUN AND
MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME FAIR WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY VEERING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK RESULTANT. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING
CALM WITH A MODERATELY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. LBT AND FLO STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT THE COAST. ANY FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY...14Z AT THE LATEST
WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...NORTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR SAT AND
SUN WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES:

AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST. SEAS ARE LIKELY 3-5 FT
AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 2 FT NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT IN A RELAXED GRADIENT..STARTING OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
VEERING AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND EVENTUALLY SE BY FRI
MORNING AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH TIME. NEAR SHORE WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CAUSING A SLIGHT SPIKE IN
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE 3 FT OR
LESS...SUBSIDING A BIT FROM WED TO THURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AN INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO
15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRI EVE. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP
FROM AROUND 2 FT EARLY FRI TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. MAY RUN
INTO A FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW REMAINING UP TO 15 KTS INITIALLY
BUT LIGHTENING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
LOCAL WATERS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43












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