Home > Products > State Listing > North Carolina Data
Latest:
 AFDRAH |  AFDILM |  AFDMHX |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 092054
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY HANGING ON
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL
CARRY A SMALL POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR AS LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH LOW/MID 30S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 5000-8000 FOOT RANGE. THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE LOWER-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.../
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 12 FOOT
SEAS COMBINED WITH 14-15 SECOND SWELLS AT THE BUOYS. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 092054
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY HANGING ON
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL
CARRY A SMALL POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR AS LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH LOW/MID 30S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 5000-8000 FOOT RANGE. THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE LOWER-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.../
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 12 FOOT
SEAS COMBINED WITH 14-15 SECOND SWELLS AT THE BUOYS. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



000
FXUS62 KMHX 092054
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY HANGING ON
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL
CARRY A SMALL POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR AS LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH LOW/MID 30S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 5000-8000 FOOT RANGE. THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE LOWER-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.../
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 12 FOOT
SEAS COMBINED WITH 14-15 SECOND SWELLS AT THE BUOYS. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KRAH 091953
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH THE 700MB TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST
AND QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...COINCIDENT
WITH THE -12 TO -18C LAYER...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.  A LEAD BATCH OF SHOWERS
DEPARTING THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS REPORTEDLY BEEN ALL LIQUID (THOUGH
SOME SLEET IS LIKELY MIXING IN)...WHILE LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES
MOVING THROUGH ALAMANCE/RANDOLPH/CHATHAM IS MOSTLY FLURRIES.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACING THROUGH TN THAT COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE THIS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO CLEAR
LATE...AS LOWS DIP IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM -10C TO -15C
DURING THE DAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE ALSO SET TO DROP ABOUT
30M.  WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...IT SEEMS
LIKE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB USING THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE 35-41. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS
MUCH OF THE 850-700MB MOISTURE OVER US TODAY WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN 700MB TROUGH.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...SMITH



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 091947
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
247 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC
FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC CHILL MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CLOUD COVER POISED TO ENTER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SOME OF THEM ARE LOOKING A LITTLE CONVECTIVE. GLOBAL AND
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON RADAR
LOOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WED.
THUS...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT...AT THE SURFACE...
THE COLD AIR WILL BE STRONGLY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...
REINFORCING THE WINTER CHILL. THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
FEEL EVEN COLDER WED WITH THE GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 40 WED AND LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 40S THU.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS THE TEENS THIS PERIOD AND EVEN
DURING THE DAY IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 30S...NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK WED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS LATE THU NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR S MAY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
WHICH COULD COMPLICATE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST. A FEW SPOTS COULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS WED NIGHT IF THE WIND SUFFICIENTLY
DIMINISHES NEAR DAYBREAK TO ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT
WILL BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS WITH EVEN
A FEW SINGLE NUMBERS POSSIBLE. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN THE GROUND IS AS WET AS IT IS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM GOES FROM COLD TO REALLY COLD AND
THEN BACK TO JUST COLD. FRIDAY BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND
LARGE VORTEX NORTH OF NY STATE.  A SMALL POCKET OF ENERGY
DISTINGUISHES ITSELF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF NW FLOW AND MANIFESTS AS
A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES BUT SINCE MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES COULD BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR PTYPE ISSUES WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS FOR WHAT WILL
END UP LIKELY AS SPRINKLES/FLURRIES, IF ANYTHING AT ALL. UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO
PENETRATE THE REGION PLUNGING 850MB TEMPS TO -10 TO -15C ROUGHLY
SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY AND/OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST OF THE
COLD THUS APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE EVEN THOUGH
SOME RECOVERY MAY BE UNDERWAY SUNDAY MIXING WILL BE THE POOREST.
LATE IN THE PERIOD FINDS WEAKER UPPER TROUGHINESS AND A BIT FURTHER
WEST LEADING TO US CLOUDING UP LOCALLY AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
OUR TEMPERATURE MODERATION SHOULD BE QUITE HINDERED BY ALL OF THE
CLOUDINESS BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT HAS US BACK TO CLIMO BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BLUSTERY W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THROUGH 01Z. SLIGHT EASING OF
WINDS TONIGHT. CIGS BKN045 AND BKN100. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. SLIGHT EASING OF
WINDS AFT 01Z TO A 27010KT-26007KT RANGE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT FOG FORMATION...WHILE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND DRYISH LOW
LEVELS PREVENTS LOW-BASED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS DO INCREASE A LITTLE BY 00 UTC BUT SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE CRITERIA. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE A
FEW HOURS OF GALE GUSTS. NO SURPRISE WITH SEAS...6-9 FEET ACROSS
OUTER WATERS WITH LOWER VALUES AS YOU MOVE TO THE COAST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED FOR
A TIME WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT. STRONG COLD AND DRY
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND
EVE...UP TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM THU. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE W AND WNW WHILE WINDS ARE
STRONGEST. THIS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FLATTEN SEAS NEAR SHORE
WHILE ALLOWING SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS TO REMAIN NEAR 5
TO 7 FT. WIND SPEEDS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20
KT AND THEN TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM WNW TO NW THU EVE AND TO N OR
NE THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU AND 2 FT OR LESS
THU NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WIND AND SEAS BOTH PRETTY LIGHT ON FRIDAY
THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND DIRECTION AS A
FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE BY. COLD AIR THEN SURGES
STRONGLY ON SATURDAY AND A MODERATE NW FLOW DEVELOPS THAT MAY
NECESSITATE A BRIEF SCEC. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC LOCAL FLOW WILL VEER AND ABATE. SEAS WILL ALSO BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD IN SIZE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...GUIDANCE STILL CALLING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COASTAL FLOODING AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
HIGH CONSIDERING THE PAST FEW CYCLES AND LEVELS. WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091947
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 091740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 091740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 091740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS62 KILM 091725
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1225 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST
OF THE YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CLOUD COVER POISED TO ENTER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME OF
THEM ARE LOOKING A LITTLE CONVECTIVE. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON RADAR LOOPS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY
BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES
WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA
FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24
HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT
IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW
RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START
MON MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BLUSTERY W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THROUGH 01Z. SLIGHT EASING OF
WINDS TONIGHT. CIGS BKN045 AND BKN100. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. SLIGHT EASING OF
WINDS AFT 01Z TO A 27010KT-26007KT RANGE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT FOG FORMATION...WHILE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND DRYISH LOW
LEVELS PREVENTS LOW-BASED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDIITONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DO INCREASE A LITTLE BY 00 UTC BUT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE CRITERIA. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
OF GALE GUSTS. NO SURPRISE WITH SEAS...6-9 FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS
WITH LOWER VALUES AS YOU MOVE TO THE COAST.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED
WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI
INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE
LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...GUIDANCE STILL CALLING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF COASTAL FLOODING AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
HIGH CONSIDERING THE PAST FEW CYCLES AND LEVELS. WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091501
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091501
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091501
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT



000
FXUS62 KMHX 091451
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...VSBY SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER
OUR WESTERN CWA WITH LIGHT RADAR RETURNS...BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. LIGHT WSW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON PER LATEST HRRR MODEL. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDINESS WITH SHRT WV ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE INTO EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS INTO
MID TO UPR 20S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S OBX EVEN WITH WEST WINDS
5-15 MPH KEEPING MIXED ATMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE WED AND
WED NIGHT WHILE DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN US. PRED DRY
AND COLD WED AND THU. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT
MOST OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS WED IN THE LOW 40S AND 35-40 DEG THU...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z SOLUTIONS NOW SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN SHOWERS. ECMWF REMAINS
WARMER THEN THE GFS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PTYPE MAINLY
LIQUID WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS MORE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. WILL
CONTINUE SC -RA/-SN MENTION THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. VERY COLD 1035-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NNW SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...AND EVEN
COLDER FOR SUN. WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WILL KEEP SC MENTION OF
-SN SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH STRONG
FORCING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL NNW FLOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE PUSHING A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND DEVELOPING A
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST LATE MON AND TUE...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED SC POP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...LCL IFR CIG AND/OR VSBY WILL AFFECT TAF
SITES UNTIL 13Z...THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS. AREA OF SCU/AC WITH UPR LVL ENERGY ALREADY MOVING INTO
COASTAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT WED AND THU AFTERNOONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...WEST WINDS PREVAIL ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT HATTERAS COAST
GUARD STATION AND DIAMOND SHOALS. SEAS CONTINUE QUITE ROUGH WITH
9-12 FEET OFFSHORE. PER LATEST 3-KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS...EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. WAVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE UNDERDONE BY 3-5 FT WITH LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL OVER
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND RELIED ON MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST.
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 AM TUESDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
OUTER BANKS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE HIGH TIDES THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH AND
BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KILM 091419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
919 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST
OF THE YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE I DECREASED THE
CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHEARED VORTICITY...THE TREND
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED OFF
A LITTLE WARM BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASES. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:


DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL MOISTURE...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS THIS MORNING. A TRACE AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

THE CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS NOW BEEN ESTABLISHED...WITH
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF AFFECTING ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE U.S. AND THE COMPLEMENT LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PAINT A COLD AND
DRY PICTURE FOR THIS PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS...THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL NEARLY LIE OVERHEAD. IN THIS POSITION...ANY EMBEDDED
MID- LEVEL VORTS OR SHEARED VORTICITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP ANY
GULF MOISTURE AND FOR THE MOST PART ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHEN THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. IN ADDITION...THE ILM CWA WILL BE UNDER
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE ILM CWA LYING WITHIN THE LEFT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES
THEM...HENCE THE STRATO-CU AND ALTO- CU BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECKS
THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD. NO POPS
THIS PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE PCPN REMAINING NORTH OF THE ILM CWA
AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP A
PCPN- FREE FORECAST IS THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MOUNTAINS
THAT WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE.

MODELS INDICATE THE ILM CWA WILL LIE UNDER EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW
SFC AND ALOFT...WITH NO REAL LOCAL INFLUENCES FROM ANY SFC HIGHS OR
LOWS. WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING IS A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND CONTINUED
CAA...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF FURTHER AMPLIFYING. LOOKING AT THE OLD
FAITHFUL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELD...
THICKNESSES DROP FROM 532-536DAM THIS MORNING TO 530-534DAM BY WED
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CAA AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS MORE PRONOUNCED...
TAKE THE 850MB MODEL CONSENSUS TEMP FCST THAT BASICALLY RANGES FROM
-3 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS MORNING...AND DROPS TO ROUGHLY -9 TO -
11 DEGREES CELSIUS BY DAYBREAK WED. OVERALL...WILL STAY CLOSER TO
THE LOWER AVBL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY
BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES
WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA
FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24
HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT
IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW
RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START
MON MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...BLUSTERY W WINDS TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. SLIGHT EASING OF WINDS
TONIGHT. CIGS BKN050 AND BKN110 VARIABLE TO SCT AND OVC AT TIMES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VRF THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED AFT 13Z THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVG
OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD THE NE THROUGH 13Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS...THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF A
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CAA SURGES. THIS
COLD/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVECTING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S WHICH
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BASICALLY BE 250-270 DEGREES AT 15 TO 25
KT...AND OCCASIONALLY 20 TO 30 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ALONG WITH LESS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND.

OF NOTE...THE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OFFSHORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WATERS THAT LIE BETWEEN CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE
THEY ARE PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE FOREMENTIONED WATERS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER FETCH FOR WHICH TO BUILD SEAS UPON. OVERALL...SEAS WILL RUN 3
TO 7 FT...WITH A FEW 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF
CAPE FEAR. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED
WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI
INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE
LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...MODEL SURGE FORECASTS FOR THE DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON GAGE ON THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...IS FORECAST TO
CLIMB ABOVE 5.5 FT MLLW LATER THIS MORNING. THIS LEVEL IS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD. SURGE FORECASTS INDICATE THE GAGE WILL
TOP 6.4 FT MLLW AT THE 10 AM HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
SHALLOW FLOODING TO OCCUR WITHIN A 4 HR WINDOW CENTERED AT HIGH
TIDE THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 091419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
919 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST
OF THE YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE I DECREASED THE
CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHEARED VORTICITY...THE TREND
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED OFF
A LITTLE WARM BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASES. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:


DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL MOISTURE...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS THIS MORNING. A TRACE AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

THE CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS NOW BEEN ESTABLISHED...WITH
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF AFFECTING ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE U.S. AND THE COMPLEMENT LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PAINT A COLD AND
DRY PICTURE FOR THIS PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS...THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL NEARLY LIE OVERHEAD. IN THIS POSITION...ANY EMBEDDED
MID- LEVEL VORTS OR SHEARED VORTICITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP ANY
GULF MOISTURE AND FOR THE MOST PART ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHEN THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. IN ADDITION...THE ILM CWA WILL BE UNDER
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE ILM CWA LYING WITHIN THE LEFT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES
THEM...HENCE THE STRATO-CU AND ALTO- CU BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECKS
THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD. NO POPS
THIS PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE PCPN REMAINING NORTH OF THE ILM CWA
AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP A
PCPN- FREE FORECAST IS THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MOUNTAINS
THAT WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE.

MODELS INDICATE THE ILM CWA WILL LIE UNDER EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW
SFC AND ALOFT...WITH NO REAL LOCAL INFLUENCES FROM ANY SFC HIGHS OR
LOWS. WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING IS A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND CONTINUED
CAA...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF FURTHER AMPLIFYING. LOOKING AT THE OLD
FAITHFUL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELD...
THICKNESSES DROP FROM 532-536DAM THIS MORNING TO 530-534DAM BY WED
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CAA AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS MORE PRONOUNCED...
TAKE THE 850MB MODEL CONSENSUS TEMP FCST THAT BASICALLY RANGES FROM
-3 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS MORNING...AND DROPS TO ROUGHLY -9 TO -
11 DEGREES CELSIUS BY DAYBREAK WED. OVERALL...WILL STAY CLOSER TO
THE LOWER AVBL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY
BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES
WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA
FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24
HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT
IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW
RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START
MON MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...BLUSTERY W WINDS TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. SLIGHT EASING OF WINDS
TONIGHT. CIGS BKN050 AND BKN110 VARIABLE TO SCT AND OVC AT TIMES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VRF THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED AFT 13Z THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVG
OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD THE NE THROUGH 13Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS...THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF A
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CAA SURGES. THIS
COLD/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVECTING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S WHICH
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BASICALLY BE 250-270 DEGREES AT 15 TO 25
KT...AND OCCASIONALLY 20 TO 30 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ALONG WITH LESS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND.

OF NOTE...THE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OFFSHORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WATERS THAT LIE BETWEEN CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE
THEY ARE PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE FOREMENTIONED WATERS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER FETCH FOR WHICH TO BUILD SEAS UPON. OVERALL...SEAS WILL RUN 3
TO 7 FT...WITH A FEW 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF
CAPE FEAR. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED
WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI
INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE
LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...MODEL SURGE FORECASTS FOR THE DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON GAGE ON THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...IS FORECAST TO
CLIMB ABOVE 5.5 FT MLLW LATER THIS MORNING. THIS LEVEL IS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD. SURGE FORECASTS INDICATE THE GAGE WILL
TOP 6.4 FT MLLW AT THE 10 AM HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
SHALLOW FLOODING TO OCCUR WITHIN A 4 HR WINDOW CENTERED AT HIGH
TIDE THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 091221
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
721 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...EARLIER CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED OFFSHORE...BUT NOW SEEING SOME SCU/AC MOVE INTO COASTAL
PLAINS AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NE THROUGH MORNING.
CLOUDINESS COMING ACROSS MTNS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTN. NO CHANGES
TO TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WITH INITIAL SHRT
WV AROUND BASE OF UPR LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF COAST NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PT CLDY SKIES FOLLOWING FOR PART OF
MORNING. SECONDARY SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SOME SCU/AC
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME LIGHT QPF PSBL OVER WRN AND NRN SECTIONS WITH THIS
CLOUDINESS BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LVLS WILL NOT BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY PCPN REACHING GROUND WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW...THUS STICKING WITH DRY FCST. HIGHS MAINLY UPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDINESS WITH SHRT WV ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE INTO EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS INTO
MID TO UPR 20S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S OBX EVEN WITH WEST WINDS
5-15 MPH KEEPING MIXED ATMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE WED AND
WED NIGHT WHILE DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN US. PRED DRY
AND COLD WED AND THU. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT
MOST OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS WED IN THE LOW 40S AND 35-40 DEG THU...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z SOLUTIONS NOW SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN SHOWERS. ECMWF REMAINS
WARMER THEN THE GFS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PTYPE MAINLY
LIQUID WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS MORE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. WILL
CONTINUE SC -RA/-SN MENTION THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. VERY COLD 1035-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NNW SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...AND EVEN
COLDER FOR SUN. WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WILL KEEP SC MENTION OF
-SN SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH STRONG
FORCING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL NNW FLOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE PUSHING A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND DEVELOPING A
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST LATE MON AND TUE...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED SC POP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...LCL IFR CIG AND/OR VSBY WILL AFFECT TAF
SITES UNTIL 13Z...THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH INCREASING WEST
WINDS. AREA OF SCU/AC WITH UPR LVL ENERGY ALREADY MOVING INTO
COASTAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT WED AND THU AFTERNOONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEST WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS AREA WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH. SPEEDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS
SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND BY LATE MORNING...AND NO
CHANGES TO SCA. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER PORTIONS
OF ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BUT LATEST GDNC
DOES NOT SUPPORT LONG ENOUGH PERIOD FOR SCA ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CAA AS ARCTIC AIR
MASS BUILDS IN FROM NW.

WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE UNDERDONE BY 3-5 FT WITH LARGE
DANGEROUS SWELL OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND RELIED ON MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING
OCEAN OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSED NEAR KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE
ISLAND WITH HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091156
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091156
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT



000
FXUS62 KILM 091141
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST
OF THE YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL MOISTURE...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS THIS MORNING. A TRACE AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

THE CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS NOW BEEN ESTABLISHED...WITH
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF AFFECTING ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE U.S. AND THE COMPLEMENT LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PAINT A COLD AND
DRY PICTURE FOR THIS PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS...THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL NEARLY LIE OVERHEAD. IN THIS POSITION...ANY EMBEDDED
MID- LEVEL VORTS OR SHEARED VORTICITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP ANY
GULF MOISTURE AND FOR THE MOST PART ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHEN THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. IN ADDITION...THE ILM CWA WILL BE UNDER
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE ILM CWA LYING WITHIN THE LEFT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES
THEM...HENCE THE STRATO-CU AND ALTO- CU BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECKS
THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD. NO POPS
THIS PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE PCPN REMAINING NORTH OF THE ILM CWA
AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP A
PCPN- FREE FORECAST IS THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MOUNTAINS
THAT WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE.

MODELS INDICATE THE ILM CWA WILL LIE UNDER EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW
SFC AND ALOFT...WITH NO REAL LOCAL INFLUENCES FROM ANY SFC HIGHS OR
LOWS. WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING IS A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND CONTINUED
CAA...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF FURTHER AMPLIFYING. LOOKING AT THE OLD
FAITHFUL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELD...
THICKNESSES DROP FROM 532-536DAM THIS MORNING TO 530-534DAM BY WED
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CAA AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS MORE PRONOUNCED...
TAKE THE 850MB MODEL CONSENSUS TEMP FCST THAT BASICALLY RANGES FROM
-3 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS MORNING...AND DROPS TO ROUGHLY -9 TO -
11 DEGREES CELSIUS BY DAYBREAK WED. OVERALL...WILL STAY CLOSER TO
THE LOWER AVBL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY
BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES
WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA
FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24
HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT
IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW
RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START
MON MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...BLUSTERY W WINDS TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. SLIGHT EASING OF WINDS
TONIGHT. CIGS BKN050 AND BKN110 VARIABLE TO SCT AND OVC AT TIMES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VRF THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED AFT 13Z THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVG
OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD THE NE THROUGH 13Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS...THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF A
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CAA SURGES. THIS
COLD/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVECTING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S WHICH
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BASICALLY BE 250-270 DEGREES AT 15 TO 25
KT...AND OCCASIONALLY 20 TO 30 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ALONG WITH LESS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND.

OF NOTE...THE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OFFSHORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WATERS THAT LIE BETWEEN CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE
THEY ARE PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE FOREMENTIONED WATERS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER FETCH FOR WHICH TO BUILD SEAS UPON. OVERALL...SEAS WILL RUN 3
TO 7 FT...WITH A FEW 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF
CAPE FEAR. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED
WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI
INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE
LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...MODEL SURGE FORECASTS FOR THE DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON GAGE ON THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...IS FORECAST TO
CLIMB ABOVE 5.5 FT MLLW LATER THIS MORNING. THIS LEVEL IS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD. SURGE FORECASTS INDICATE THE GAGE WILL
TOP 6.4 FT MLLW AT THE 10 AM HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
SHALLOW FLOODING TO OCCUR WITHIN A 4 HR WINDOW CENTERED AT HIGH
TIDE THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...COLBY
MARINE...DCH/III
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 091112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
612 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST
OF THE YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL MOISTURE...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS THIS MORNING. A TRACE AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

THE CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS NOW BEEN ESTABLISHED...WITH
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF AFFECTING ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE U.S. AND THE COMPLEMENT LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PAINT A COLD AND
DRY PICTURE FOR THIS PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS...THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL NEARLY LIE OVERHEAD. IN THIS POSITION...ANY EMBEDDED
MID- LEVEL VORTS OR SHEARED VORTICITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP ANY
GULF MOISTURE AND FOR THE MOST PART ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHEN THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. IN ADDITION...THE ILM CWA WILL BE UNDER
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE ILM CWA LYING WITHIN THE LEFT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES
THEM...HENCE THE STRATO-CU AND ALTO- CU BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECKS
THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD. NO POPS
THIS PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE PCPN REMAINING NORTH OF THE ILM CWA
AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP A
PCPN- FREE FORECAST IS THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MOUNTAINS
THAT WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE.

MODELS INDICATE THE ILM CWA WILL LIE UNDER EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW
SFC AND ALOFT...WITH NO REAL LOCAL INFLUENCES FROM ANY SFC HIGHS OR
LOWS. WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING IS A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND CONTINUED
CAA...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF FURTHER AMPLIFYING. LOOKING AT THE OLD
FAITHFUL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELD...
THICKNESSES DROP FROM 532-536DAM THIS MORNING TO 530-534DAM BY WED
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CAA AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS MORE PRONOUNCED...
TAKE THE 850MB MODEL CONSENSUS TEMP FCST THAT BASICALLY RANGES FROM
-3 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS MORNING...AND DROPS TO ROUGHLY -9 TO -
11 DEGREES CELSIUS BY DAYBREAK WED. OVERALL...WILL STAY CLOSER TO
THE LOWER AVBL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY
BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES
WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA
FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24
HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT
IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW
RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START
MON MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST...WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXHIBITING WSW-W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LBT TERMINAL MAY
BRIEFLY OBSERVE GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT THRU 08Z BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TO 10 KT OR LESS THERE-AFTER. A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME
SHEARED VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND AVBL MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
CLOUD DECKS THRUOUT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THEIR RESPECTIVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR TERRITORY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS WILL BE THE GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THAT WILL GET BUSY AN HOUR
OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DURING DAYLIGHT TUE...THE CAA WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG AND PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ KT. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS...THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF A
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CAA SURGES. THIS
COLD/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVECTING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S WHICH
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BASICALLY BE 250-270 DEGREES AT 15 TO 25
KT...AND OCCASIONALLY 20 TO 30 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ALONG WITH LESS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND.

OF NOTE...THE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OFFSHORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WATERS THAT LIE BETWEEN CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE
THEY ARE PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE FOREMENTIONED WATERS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER FETCH FOR WHICH TO BUILD SEAS UPON. OVERALL...SEAS WILL RUN 3
TO 7 FT...WITH A FEW 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF
CAPE FEAR. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED
WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI
INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE
LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...MODEL SURGE FORECASTS FOR THE DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON GAGE ON THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...IS FORECAST TO
CLIMB ABOVE 5.5 FT MLLW LATER THIS MORNING. THIS LEVEL IS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD. SURGE FORECASTS INDICATE THE GAGE WILL
TOP 6.4 FT MLLW AT THE 10 AM HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
SHALLOW FLOODING TO OCCUR WITHIN A 4 HR WINDOW CENTERED AT HIGH
TIDE THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 091112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
612 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST
OF THE YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL MOISTURE...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS THIS MORNING. A TRACE AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

THE CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS NOW BEEN ESTABLISHED...WITH
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF AFFECTING ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE U.S. AND THE COMPLEMENT LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PAINT A COLD AND
DRY PICTURE FOR THIS PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS...THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL NEARLY LIE OVERHEAD. IN THIS POSITION...ANY EMBEDDED
MID- LEVEL VORTS OR SHEARED VORTICITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP ANY
GULF MOISTURE AND FOR THE MOST PART ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHEN THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. IN ADDITION...THE ILM CWA WILL BE UNDER
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE ILM CWA LYING WITHIN THE LEFT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES
THEM...HENCE THE STRATO-CU AND ALTO- CU BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECKS
THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD. NO POPS
THIS PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE PCPN REMAINING NORTH OF THE ILM CWA
AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP A
PCPN- FREE FORECAST IS THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MOUNTAINS
THAT WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE.

MODELS INDICATE THE ILM CWA WILL LIE UNDER EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW
SFC AND ALOFT...WITH NO REAL LOCAL INFLUENCES FROM ANY SFC HIGHS OR
LOWS. WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING IS A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND CONTINUED
CAA...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF FURTHER AMPLIFYING. LOOKING AT THE OLD
FAITHFUL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELD...
THICKNESSES DROP FROM 532-536DAM THIS MORNING TO 530-534DAM BY WED
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CAA AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS MORE PRONOUNCED...
TAKE THE 850MB MODEL CONSENSUS TEMP FCST THAT BASICALLY RANGES FROM
-3 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS MORNING...AND DROPS TO ROUGHLY -9 TO -
11 DEGREES CELSIUS BY DAYBREAK WED. OVERALL...WILL STAY CLOSER TO
THE LOWER AVBL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY
BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES
WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA
FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24
HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT
IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW
RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START
MON MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST...WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXHIBITING WSW-W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LBT TERMINAL MAY
BRIEFLY OBSERVE GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT THRU 08Z BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TO 10 KT OR LESS THERE-AFTER. A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME
SHEARED VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND AVBL MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
CLOUD DECKS THRUOUT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THEIR RESPECTIVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR TERRITORY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS WILL BE THE GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THAT WILL GET BUSY AN HOUR
OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DURING DAYLIGHT TUE...THE CAA WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG AND PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ KT. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS...THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF A
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CAA SURGES. THIS
COLD/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVECTING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S WHICH
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BASICALLY BE 250-270 DEGREES AT 15 TO 25
KT...AND OCCASIONALLY 20 TO 30 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ALONG WITH LESS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND.

OF NOTE...THE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OFFSHORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WATERS THAT LIE BETWEEN CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE
THEY ARE PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE FOREMENTIONED WATERS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER FETCH FOR WHICH TO BUILD SEAS UPON. OVERALL...SEAS WILL RUN 3
TO 7 FT...WITH A FEW 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF
CAPE FEAR. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED
WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI
INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE
LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...MODEL SURGE FORECASTS FOR THE DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON GAGE ON THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...IS FORECAST TO
CLIMB ABOVE 5.5 FT MLLW LATER THIS MORNING. THIS LEVEL IS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD. SURGE FORECASTS INDICATE THE GAGE WILL
TOP 6.4 FT MLLW AT THE 10 AM HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
SHALLOW FLOODING TO OCCUR WITHIN A 4 HR WINDOW CENTERED AT HIGH
TIDE THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 090927
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
427 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST
OF THE YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A TRACE AT BEST IS EXPECTED.

THE CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS NOW BEEN ESTABLISHED...WITH
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF AFFECTING ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE U.S. AND THE COMPLEMENT LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PAINT A COLD AND
DRY PICTURE FOR THIS PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS...THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL NEARLY LIE OVERHEAD. IN THIS POSITION...ANY EMBEDDED
MID- LEVEL VORTS OR SHEARED VORTICITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP ANY
GULF MOISTURE AND FOR THE MOST PART ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHEN THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. IN ADDITION...THE ILM CWA WILL BE UNDER
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE ILM CWA LYING WITHIN THE LEFT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES
THEM...HENCE THE STRATO-CU AND ALTO- CU BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECKS
THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD. NO POPS
THIS PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE PCPN REMAINING NORTH OF THE ILM CWA
AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP A
PCPN- FREE FORECAST IS THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MOUNTAINS
THAT WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE.

MODELS INDICATE THE ILM CWA WILL LIE UNDER EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW
SFC AND ALOFT...WITH NO REAL LOCAL INFLUENCES FROM ANY SFC HIGHS OR
LOWS. WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING IS A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND CONTINUED
CAA...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF FURTHER AMPLIFYING. LOOKING AT THE OLD
FAITHFUL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELD...
THICKNESSES DROP FROM 532-536DAM THIS MORNING TO 530-534DAM BY WED
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CAA AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS MORE PRONOUNCED...
TAKE THE 850MB MODEL CONSENSUS TEMP FCST THAT BASICALLY RANGES FROM
-3 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS MORNING...AND DROPS TO ROUGHLY -9 TO -
11 DEGREES CELSIUS BY DAYBREAK WED. OVERALL...WILL STAY CLOSER TO
THE LOWER AVBL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY
BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES
WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA
FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24
HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT
IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW
RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START
MON MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST...WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXHIBITING WSW-W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LBT TERMINAL MAY
BRIEFLY OBSERVE GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT THRU 08Z BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TO 10 KT OR LESS THERE-AFTER. A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME
SHEARED VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND AVBL MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
CLOUD DECKS THRUOUT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THEIR RESPECTIVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR TERRITORY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS WILL BE THE GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THAT WILL GET BUSY AN HOUR
OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DURING DAYLIGHT TUE...THE CAA WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG AND PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ KT. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS...THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF A
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CAA SURGES. THIS
COLD/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVECTING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S WHICH
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BASICALLY BE 250-270 DEGREES AT 15 TO 25
KT...AND OCCASIONALLY 20 TO 30 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ALONG WITH LESS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND.

OF NOTE...THE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OFFSHORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WATERS THAT LIE BETWEEN CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE
THEY ARE PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE FOREMENTIONED WATERS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER FETCH FOR WHICH TO BUILD SEAS UPON. OVERALL...SEAS WILL RUN 3
TO 7 FT...WITH A FEW 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF
CAPE FEAR. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED
WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI
INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE
LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODEL SURGE FORECASTS FOR THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON GAGE ON THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...IS FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 5.5 FT MLLW
THIS MORNING WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD. FORECASTS INDICATE THE
GAGE WILL TOP 6.2 FT MLLW AT THE 10 AM HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. AS
A RESULT...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 090854
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WITH INITIAL SHRT
WV AROUND BASE OF UPR LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF COAST NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PT CLDY SKIES FOLLOWING FOR PART OF
MORNING. SECONDARY SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SOME SCU/AC
DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME LIGHT QPF PSBL OVER WRN AND NRN SECTIONS WITH THIS
CLOUDINESS BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LVLS WILL NOT BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY PCPN REACHING GROUND WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW...THUS STICKING WITH DRY FCST. HIGHS MAINLY UPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDINESS WITH SHRT WV ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE INTO EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS INTO
MID TO UPR 20S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S OBX EVEN WITH WEST WINDS
5-15 MPH KEEPING MIXED ATMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE WED AND
WED NIGHT WHILE DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN US. PRED DRY
AND COLD WED AND THU. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT
MOST OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS WED IN THE LOW 40S AND 35-40 DEG THU...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z SOLUTIONS NOW SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN SHOWERS. ECMWF REMAINS
WARMER THEN THE GFS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PTYPE MAINLY
LIQUID WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS MORE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. WILL
CONTINUE SC -RA/-SN MENTION THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. VERY COLD 1035-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NNW SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...AND EVEN
COLDER FOR SUN. WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WILL KEEP SC MENTION OF
-SN SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH STRONG
FORCING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL NNW FLOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE PUSHING A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND DEVELOPING A
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST LATE MON AND TUE...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED SC POP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING FOR
KPGV AND KISO AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME DUE TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
WHERE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN EVENING. THIS FOG WILL SPREAD
TOWARD KEWN AND KOAJ NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AFTER 10Z AS WEST WINDS PICK UP WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON FRONT
OFFSHORE TO E-NE. SOME VFR CIG SCU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY WITH HEATING AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND WILL PERSIST INTO TUE
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT WED AND THU AFTERNOONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
AREA WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
SPEEDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES TO SCA. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER PORTIONS OF ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING BUT LATEST GDNC DOES NOT SUPPORT LONG ENOUGH PERIOD
FOR SCA ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CAA AS ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDS IN FROM NW.

WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE UNDERDONE BY 3-5 FT WITH LARGE
DANGEROUS SWELL OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND RELIED ON MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING
OCEAN OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSED NEAR KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE
ISLAND WITH HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 090830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 090829
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VERY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...ADDED SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG COAST REST
OF NIGHT AND AREAS OF FOG MENTION FOR INLAND SECTIONS. INITIAL
FRONT HAS REACHED COAST WITH INLAND BAND OF SHRA DISSIPATING...BUT
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN IS SPREADING UP ALONG COAST FROM SW. MOST OF
PCPN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH GROUND BUT ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT 20
POPS. CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT
RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL SPREAD MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17. AS LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ON
FRONT TO E-NE...WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE FOG
AFTER 4-5 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...SHRINKING BAND OF SHRA IS PUSHING E TWRD
CST LATE THIS EVENING ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. HAVE PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST
TO THE W IN WAKE OF SHRA HOWEVER AS W WINDS INCREASE LATER BEHIND
FRONT SHLD LIMIT DURATION OF ANY FOG. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH LOWS
AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE WED AND
WED NIGHT WHILE DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN US. PRED DRY
AND COLD WED AND THU. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT
MOST OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS WED IN THE LOW 40S AND 35-40 DEG THU...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z SOLUTIONS NOW SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN SHOWERS. ECMWF REMAINS
WARMER THEN THE GFS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PTYPE MAINLY
LIQUID WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS MORE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. WILL
CONTINUE SC -RA/-SN MENTION THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. VERY COLD 1035-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NNW SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...AND EVEN
COLDER FOR SUN. WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WILL KEEP SC MENTION OF
-SN SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH STRONG
FORCING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL NNW FLOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE PUSHING A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND DEVELOPING A
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST LATE MON AND TUE...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED SC POP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING FOR
KPGV AND KISO AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME DUE TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
WHERE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN EVENING. THIS FOG WILL SPREAD
TOWARD KEWN AND KOAJ NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AFTER 10Z AS WEST WINDS PICK UP WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON FRONT
OFFSHORE TO E-NE. SOME VFR CIG SCU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY WITH HEATING AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND WILL PERSIST INTO TUE
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT WED AND THU AFTERNOONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...HAD TO BUMP UP SEAS QUITE A BIT AS VERY
LARGE SWELLS CONT FROM DEPARTED LOW PRES. SEAS ARE ALMOST DOUBLE
WHAT WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING OVER NRN WTRS SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY CONT TO HAVE TO BUMP UP SEAS.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 ARE CLOSED NEAR
KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE ISLAND.

PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KILM 090815
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY AIR MASS IN THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS NOW
BEEN ESTABLISHED...WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF AFFECTING
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE U.S. AND THE COMPLEMENT LARGE
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL PAINT A COLD AND DRY PICTURE FOR THIS PERIOD AND
SUBSEQUENT PERIODS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL NEARLY LIE OVERHEAD. IN
THIS POSITION...ANY EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL VORTS OR SHEARED VORTICITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP ANY GULF MOISTURE AND FOR THE MOST PART
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHEN THEY MOVE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. IN
ADDITION...THE ILM CWA WILL BE UNDER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE
TO THE ILM CWA LYING WITHIN THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB
JET AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS
WILL HAVE TO RELY ON MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES THEM...HENCE THE
STRATO-CU AND ALTO- CU BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL
OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD. NO POPS THIS
PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE PCPN REMAINING NORTH OF THE ILM CWA AND
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP A PCPN-
FREE FORECAST IS THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MOUNTAINS THAT
WILL ACT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE.

MODELS INDICATE THE ILM CWA WILL LIE UNDER EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW
SFC AND ALOFT...WITH NO REAL LOCAL INFLUENCES FROM ANY SFC HIGHS OR
LOWS. WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING IS A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND CONTINUED
CAA...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROF FURTHER AMPLIFYING. LOOKING AT THE OLD
FAITHFUL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELD...
THICKNESSES DROP FROM 532-536DAM THIS MORNING TO 530-534DAM BY WED
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CAA AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS MORE PRONOUNCED...
TAKE THE 850MB MODEL CONSENSUS TEMP FCST THAT BASICALLY RANGES FROM
-3 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS MORNING...AND DROPS TO ROUGHLY -9 TO -
11 DEGREES CELSIUS BY DAYBREAK WED. OVERALL...WILL STAY CLOSER TO
THE LOWER AVBL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 5H CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST WED. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE
LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE CLUTCHES OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR. HIGHS WED AND THU STRUGGLE TO REACH 40...WITH LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. PERIOD WILL BE DRY
BUT PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER WED AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER THU.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN WED THROUGH THU GIVEN
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND THE ANTICIPATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH VALUES APPROACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES
WED NIGHT. WINDS DO START TO EASE UP LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE A FIXTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY THE AMPLITUDE VARYING. SURFACE HIGH IN THE AREA
FRI IS PUSHED SOUTH BY PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING...DRIVEN SOUTH BY CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. FRONT PASSES DRY BUT IS TRAILED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC
AIR. LATEST GFS/ECMWF HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING BY ALMOST 15C IN A 24
HOUR SPAN FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE EASING ON SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GUIDANCE IS
POINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...STARTING LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL ALSO
OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS WINTER.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING MON WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW LIMITED
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. SO EVEN IF SOME
PRECIP DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS EVENT
IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT NOT READY TO GO WITH A HIGH POP BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A SILENT 20 FOR MON. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
MON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE SLOW
RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC AIR MASSES MODIFY AND THE EXPECTED COLD START
MON MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST...WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXHIBITING WSW-W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LBT TERMINAL MAY
BRIEFLY OBSERVE GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT THRU 08Z BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TO 10 KT OR LESS THERE-AFTER. A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME
SHEARED VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND AVBL MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
CLOUD DECKS THRUOUT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THEIR RESPECTIVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR TERRITORY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS WILL BE THE GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THAT WILL GET BUSY AN HOUR
OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DURING DAYLIGHT TUE...THE CAA WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG AND PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ KT. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS...THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF A
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CAA SURGES. THIS
COLD/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ADVECTING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S WHICH
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE. WINDS WILL BASICALLY BE 250-270 DEGREES AT 15 TO 25
KT...AND OCCASIONALLY 20 TO 30 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SSTS ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...ALONG WITH LESS FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND.

OF NOTE...THE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OFFSHORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WATERS THAT LIE BETWEEN CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE
THEY ARE PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. WITH THIS IN MIND...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE FOREMENTIONED WATERS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER FETCH FOR WHICH TO BUILD SEAS UPON. OVERALL...SEAS WILL RUN 3
TO 7 FT...WITH A FEW 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF
CAPE FEAR. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WED WILL KEEP WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND 25 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ADVECTION STARTS TO WEAKEN ON
THU WHICH ALLOWS FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHEAST AND DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ON WED
WILL GRADUALLY START DECREASING LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA FRI IS PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH LATE FRI NIGHT BY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL INCREASE A LITTLE DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EXCEEDING 20 KT SAT AND 25 KT SAT NIGHT.
GUSTS LATE SAT NIGHT MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI
INTO SAT START BUILDING ON SAT...PEAKING IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE
LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KILM 090619
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC EXPRESS WILL INVADE THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MID WEEK
PERIOD THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE 1ST OF SEVERAL DRY ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT ONE
OCCURRING AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST OF THIS WINTER SEASON. ..AND WILL
PROVIDE THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE BAND OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
PRECEDING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED
DATABASE TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT
IT WILL HAVE ALL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT. AS EXPECTED QPF VALUES WERE ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH...TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING
ISSUES. AIR MASS REMAINS TOO WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIP HAVE
ENDED. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERTO FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST...WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXHIBITING WSW-W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LBT TERMINAL MAY
BRIEFLY OBSERVE GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT THRU 08Z BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TO 10 KT OR LESS THERE-AFTER. A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME
SHEARED VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND AVBL MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
CLOUD DECKS THRUOUT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THEIR RESPECTIVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR TERRITORY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS WILL BE THE GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THAT WILL GET BUSY AN HOUR
OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DURING DAYLIGHT TUE...THE CAA WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG AND PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ KT. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING IN PROGRESS ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND ADJOINING AREAS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 090619
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC EXPRESS WILL INVADE THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MID WEEK
PERIOD THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE 1ST OF SEVERAL DRY ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT ONE
OCCURRING AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST OF THIS WINTER SEASON. ..AND WILL
PROVIDE THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE BAND OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
PRECEDING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED
DATABASE TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT
IT WILL HAVE ALL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT. AS EXPECTED QPF VALUES WERE ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH...TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING
ISSUES. AIR MASS REMAINS TOO WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIP HAVE
ENDED. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERTO FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST...WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXHIBITING WSW-W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LBT TERMINAL MAY
BRIEFLY OBSERVE GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT THRU 08Z BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TO 10 KT OR LESS THERE-AFTER. A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME
SHEARED VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND AVBL MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
CLOUD DECKS THRUOUT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THEIR RESPECTIVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR TERRITORY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS WILL BE THE GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THAT WILL GET BUSY AN HOUR
OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DURING DAYLIGHT TUE...THE CAA WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG AND PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ KT. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING IN PROGRESS ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND ADJOINING AREAS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 090619
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC EXPRESS WILL INVADE THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MID WEEK
PERIOD THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE 1ST OF SEVERAL DRY ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT ONE
OCCURRING AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST OF THIS WINTER SEASON. ..AND WILL
PROVIDE THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE BAND OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
PRECEDING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED
DATABASE TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT
IT WILL HAVE ALL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT. AS EXPECTED QPF VALUES WERE ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH...TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING
ISSUES. AIR MASS REMAINS TOO WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIP HAVE
ENDED. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERTO FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST...WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXHIBITING WSW-W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LBT TERMINAL MAY
BRIEFLY OBSERVE GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT THRU 08Z BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TO 10 KT OR LESS THERE-AFTER. A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME
SHEARED VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND AVBL MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
CLOUD DECKS THRUOUT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THEIR RESPECTIVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR TERRITORY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS WILL BE THE GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THAT WILL GET BUSY AN HOUR
OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DURING DAYLIGHT TUE...THE CAA WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG AND PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ KT. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING IN PROGRESS ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND ADJOINING AREAS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 090617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...ADDED SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG COAST REST
OF NIGHT AND AREAS OF FOG MENTION FOR INLAND SECTIONS. INITIAL
FRONT HAS REACHED COAST WITH INLAND BAND OF SHRA DISSIPATING...BUT
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN IS SPREADING UP ALONG COAST FROM SW. MOST OF
PCPN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH GROUND BUT ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT 20
POPS. CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT
RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL SPREAD MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17. AS LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ON
FRONT TO E-NE...WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE FOG
AFTER 4-5 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...SHRINKING BAND OF SHRA IS PUSHING E TWRD
CST LATE THIS EVENING ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. HAVE PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST
TO THE W IN WAKE OF SHRA HOWEVER AS W WINDS INCREASE LATER BEHIND
FRONT SHLD LIMIT DURATION OF ANY FOG. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH LOWS
AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING FOR
KPGV AND KISO AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME DUE TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
WHERE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN EVENING. THIS FOG WILL SPREAD
TOWARD KEWN AND KOAJ NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AFTER 10Z AS WEST WINDS PICK UP WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON FRONT
OFFSHORE TO E-NE. SOME VFR CIG SCU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY WITH HEATING AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND WILL PERSIST INTO TUE
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...HAD TO BUMP UP SEAS QUITE A BIT AS VERY
LARGE SWELLS CONT FROM DEPARTED LOW PRES. SEAS ARE ALMOST DOUBLE
WHAT WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING OVER NRN WTRS SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY CONT TO HAVE TO BUMP UP SEAS.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 ARE CLOSED NEAR
KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE ISLAND.

PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



000
FXUS62 KMHX 090617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...ADDED SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG COAST REST
OF NIGHT AND AREAS OF FOG MENTION FOR INLAND SECTIONS. INITIAL
FRONT HAS REACHED COAST WITH INLAND BAND OF SHRA DISSIPATING...BUT
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN IS SPREADING UP ALONG COAST FROM SW. MOST OF
PCPN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH GROUND BUT ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT 20
POPS. CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT
RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL SPREAD MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17. AS LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ON
FRONT TO E-NE...WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE FOG
AFTER 4-5 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...SHRINKING BAND OF SHRA IS PUSHING E TWRD
CST LATE THIS EVENING ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. HAVE PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST
TO THE W IN WAKE OF SHRA HOWEVER AS W WINDS INCREASE LATER BEHIND
FRONT SHLD LIMIT DURATION OF ANY FOG. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH LOWS
AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING FOR
KPGV AND KISO AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME DUE TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
WHERE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN EVENING. THIS FOG WILL SPREAD
TOWARD KEWN AND KOAJ NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AFTER 10Z AS WEST WINDS PICK UP WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON FRONT
OFFSHORE TO E-NE. SOME VFR CIG SCU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY WITH HEATING AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND WILL PERSIST INTO TUE
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...HAD TO BUMP UP SEAS QUITE A BIT AS VERY
LARGE SWELLS CONT FROM DEPARTED LOW PRES. SEAS ARE ALMOST DOUBLE
WHAT WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING OVER NRN WTRS SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY CONT TO HAVE TO BUMP UP SEAS.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 ARE CLOSED NEAR
KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE ISLAND.

PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 090617
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...ADDED SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG COAST REST
OF NIGHT AND AREAS OF FOG MENTION FOR INLAND SECTIONS. INITIAL
FRONT HAS REACHED COAST WITH INLAND BAND OF SHRA DISSIPATING...BUT
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN IS SPREADING UP ALONG COAST FROM SW. MOST OF
PCPN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH GROUND BUT ENOUGH THREAT TO WARRANT 20
POPS. CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT
RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH
WILL SPREAD MAINLY WEST OF HWY 17. AS LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ON
FRONT TO E-NE...WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE FOG
AFTER 4-5 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...SHRINKING BAND OF SHRA IS PUSHING E TWRD
CST LATE THIS EVENING ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. HAVE PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST
TO THE W IN WAKE OF SHRA HOWEVER AS W WINDS INCREASE LATER BEHIND
FRONT SHLD LIMIT DURATION OF ANY FOG. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH LOWS
AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING FOR
KPGV AND KISO AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME DUE TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
WHERE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN EVENING. THIS FOG WILL SPREAD
TOWARD KEWN AND KOAJ NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AFTER 10Z AS WEST WINDS PICK UP WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON FRONT
OFFSHORE TO E-NE. SOME VFR CIG SCU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY WITH HEATING AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND WILL PERSIST INTO TUE
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...HAD TO BUMP UP SEAS QUITE A BIT AS VERY
LARGE SWELLS CONT FROM DEPARTED LOW PRES. SEAS ARE ALMOST DOUBLE
WHAT WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING OVER NRN WTRS SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY CONT TO HAVE TO BUMP UP SEAS.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 ARE CLOSED NEAR
KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE ISLAND.

PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090611
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
107 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUE...IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM MONDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KTS AT FAY; 35 KTS AT FBG; AND 37 KTS AT POB...HAS MOVED EAST
OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC/VA AND MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT...THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER
COMPACT CIRCULATION DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-UPPER FEATURE...ACROSS VA
AND NC...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER (FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB) SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z GSO RAOB...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...2
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 090611
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
107 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUE...IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM MONDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KTS AT FAY; 35 KTS AT FBG; AND 37 KTS AT POB...HAS MOVED EAST
OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC/VA AND MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT...THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER
COMPACT CIRCULATION DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-UPPER FEATURE...ACROSS VA
AND NC...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER (FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB) SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z GSO RAOB...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...2
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090325
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUE...IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM MONDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KTS AT FAY; 35 KTS AT FBG; AND 37 KTS AT POB...HAS MOVED EAST
OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC/VA AND MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT...THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER
COMPACT CIRCULATION DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE AND THE ACCOMPANYIGN SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-UPPER FEATURE...ACROSS VA
AND NC...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER (FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB) SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z GSO RAOB...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...2
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090325
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUE...IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM MONDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KTS AT FAY; 35 KTS AT FBG; AND 37 KTS AT POB...HAS MOVED EAST
OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC/VA AND MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT...THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER
COMPACT CIRCULATION DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE AND THE ACCOMPANYIGN SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-UPPER FEATURE...ACROSS VA
AND NC...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER (FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB) SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z GSO RAOB...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...2
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 090254
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...SHRINKING BAND OF SHRA IS PUSHING E TWRD
CST LATE THIS EVENING ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. HAVE PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST
TO THE W IN WAKE OF SHRA HOWEVER AS W WINDS INCREASE LATER BEHIND
FRONT SHLD LIMIT DURATION OF ANY FOG. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH LOWS
AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...WL MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG IN WAKE
OF SHRA INLAND LATE THIS EVENING. DURATION OF ANY FOG SHLD BE
FAIRLY BRIEF AS INCREASING W WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

PREV DISC...INCREASING W FLOW BEHIND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL
IMPACT TAF SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB
VFR POSS ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K
FEET. ANOTHER SHRT WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
AROUND 5K FT SO WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS
WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...HAD TO BUMP UP SEAS QUITE A BIT AS VERY
LARGE SWELLS CONT FROM DEPARTED LOW PRES. SEAS ARE ALMOST DOUBLE
WHAT WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING OVER NRN WTRS SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY CONT TO HAVE TO BUMP UP SEAS.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 ARE CLOSED NEAR
KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE ISLAND.

PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 090254
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...SHRINKING BAND OF SHRA IS PUSHING E TWRD
CST LATE THIS EVENING ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. HAVE PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST
TO THE W IN WAKE OF SHRA HOWEVER AS W WINDS INCREASE LATER BEHIND
FRONT SHLD LIMIT DURATION OF ANY FOG. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH LOWS
AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...WL MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG IN WAKE
OF SHRA INLAND LATE THIS EVENING. DURATION OF ANY FOG SHLD BE
FAIRLY BRIEF AS INCREASING W WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

PREV DISC...INCREASING W FLOW BEHIND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL
IMPACT TAF SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB
VFR POSS ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K
FEET. ANOTHER SHRT WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
AROUND 5K FT SO WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS
WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...HAD TO BUMP UP SEAS QUITE A BIT AS VERY
LARGE SWELLS CONT FROM DEPARTED LOW PRES. SEAS ARE ALMOST DOUBLE
WHAT WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING OVER NRN WTRS SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY CONT TO HAVE TO BUMP UP SEAS.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 ARE CLOSED NEAR
KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE ISLAND.

PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 090254
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...SHRINKING BAND OF SHRA IS PUSHING E TWRD
CST LATE THIS EVENING ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. HAVE PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST
TO THE W IN WAKE OF SHRA HOWEVER AS W WINDS INCREASE LATER BEHIND
FRONT SHLD LIMIT DURATION OF ANY FOG. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH LOWS
AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...WL MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG IN WAKE
OF SHRA INLAND LATE THIS EVENING. DURATION OF ANY FOG SHLD BE
FAIRLY BRIEF AS INCREASING W WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

PREV DISC...INCREASING W FLOW BEHIND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL
IMPACT TAF SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB
VFR POSS ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K
FEET. ANOTHER SHRT WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
AROUND 5K FT SO WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS
WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...HAD TO BUMP UP SEAS QUITE A BIT AS VERY
LARGE SWELLS CONT FROM DEPARTED LOW PRES. SEAS ARE ALMOST DOUBLE
WHAT WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING OVER NRN WTRS SO LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY CONT TO HAVE TO BUMP UP SEAS.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING OCEAN
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 ARE CLOSED NEAR
KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE ISLAND.

PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



000
FXUS62 KILM 090233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
933 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE BAND OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
PRECEDING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED
DATABASE TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT
IT WILL HAVE ALL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT. AS EXPECTED QPF VALUES WERE ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH...TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING
ISSUES. AIR MASS REMAINS TOO WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIP HAVE
ENDED. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERTO FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRANCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING IN PROGRESS ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND ADJOINING AREAS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK



000
FXUS62 KILM 090233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
933 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE BAND OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
PRECEDING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED
DATABASE TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT
IT WILL HAVE ALL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT. AS EXPECTED QPF VALUES WERE ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH...TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING
ISSUES. AIR MASS REMAINS TOO WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIP HAVE
ENDED. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERTO FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRANCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING IN PROGRESS ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND ADJOINING AREAS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 090233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
933 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE BAND OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
PRECEDING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED
DATABASE TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT
IT WILL HAVE ALL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT. AS EXPECTED QPF VALUES WERE ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH...TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING
ISSUES. AIR MASS REMAINS TOO WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIP HAVE
ENDED. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERTO FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRANCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING IN PROGRESS ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND ADJOINING AREAS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090044
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
744 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090044
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
744 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 090044
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
744 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KILM 082341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS. A LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A FAST CLIPPER
SYSTEM. LACK OF MOISTURE KEEPING PRECIP COVERAGE ON THE SPOTTY
SIDE SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF MODEST...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN ANY PLACE THAT SEES RAIN.
THIS IS TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AIR MASS WAY TOO
WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. MAIN CONCERN IS BRIEF PERIODS OF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING FROPA. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL
OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRANCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO INLAND. EXPECT A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A
20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP DUE TO THE
STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD DO
THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK/REK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK




000
FXUS62 KILM 082341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS. A LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A FAST CLIPPER
SYSTEM. LACK OF MOISTURE KEEPING PRECIP COVERAGE ON THE SPOTTY
SIDE SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF MODEST...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN ANY PLACE THAT SEES RAIN.
THIS IS TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AIR MASS WAY TOO
WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. MAIN CONCERN IS BRIEF PERIODS OF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING FROPA. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL
OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRANCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO INLAND. EXPECT A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A
20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP DUE TO THE
STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD DO
THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK/REK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK



000
FXUS62 KILM 082341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS. A LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A FAST CLIPPER
SYSTEM. LACK OF MOISTURE KEEPING PRECIP COVERAGE ON THE SPOTTY
SIDE SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF MODEST...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN ANY PLACE THAT SEES RAIN.
THIS IS TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AIR MASS WAY TOO
WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. MAIN CONCERN IS BRIEF PERIODS OF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING FROPA. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL
OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRANCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO INLAND. EXPECT A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A
20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP DUE TO THE
STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD DO
THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK/REK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 082307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
607 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...SHRA ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER
AS THEY APPROACH CSTL PLAIN. BASED ON RDR AND HIGH RES MDLS WILL
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING WRN TIER AS SHRA
MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOWS SHRA DISSIPATING A
BIT AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO CST SO WILL KEEP CHC POP THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40
BEACHES.

PREV DISC...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-
NMM/NSSL- WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET. ANOTHER SHRT
WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT SO
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 607 PM MONDAY...FSCA CONT CSTL WTRS TONIGHT...SEAS REMAIN
VERY LARGE IN SWELL N OF HAT...RAISED SEAS SEVERAL FEET OVER NRN
AND CENTRAL WTRS REST OF THE NIGHT AS WAVE GUIDANCE IS SEVERLY
UNDERDONE.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KILM 082257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
557 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER
REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO
INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP
DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 082257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
557 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER
REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO
INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP
DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KILM 082257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
557 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER
REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO
INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP
DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KMHX 082253
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
553 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...SHRA ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER
AS THEY APPROACH CSTL PLAIN. BASED ON RDR AND HIGH RES MDLS WILL
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING WRN TIER AS SHRA
MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOWS SHRA DISSIPATING A
BIT AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO CST SO WILL KEEP CHC POP THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40
BEACHES.

PREV DISC...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-
NMM/NSSL- WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET. ANOTHER SHRT
WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT SO
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH SCA CONT CSTL WTRS
TONIGHT...SEAS REMAIN VERY LARGE IN SWELL N OF HAT.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



000
FXUS62 KMHX 082253
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
553 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...SHRA ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER
AS THEY APPROACH CSTL PLAIN. BASED ON RDR AND HIGH RES MDLS WILL
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING WRN TIER AS SHRA
MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOWS SHRA DISSIPATING A
BIT AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO CST SO WILL KEEP CHC POP THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40
BEACHES.

PREV DISC...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-
NMM/NSSL- WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET. ANOTHER SHRT
WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT SO
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH SCA CONT CSTL WTRS
TONIGHT...SEAS REMAIN VERY LARGE IN SWELL N OF HAT.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 082253
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
553 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...SHRA ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER
AS THEY APPROACH CSTL PLAIN. BASED ON RDR AND HIGH RES MDLS WILL
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING WRN TIER AS SHRA
MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOWS SHRA DISSIPATING A
BIT AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO CST SO WILL KEEP CHC POP THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH AROUND 35 INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40
BEACHES.

PREV DISC...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-
NMM/NSSL- WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z- 06Z THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BAND OF SHRA WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES FIRST FEW HRS OF FCST WITH POSS SOME BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
ESPCLY AT PGV AND ISO. LATER TONIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE
WITH VFR EXPECTED AS ANY CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET. ANOTHER SHRT
WAVE WILL CROSS TUE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. MDLS SHOW GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT SO
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CIGS IN THIS RANGE. W WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH SCA CONT CSTL WTRS
TONIGHT...SEAS REMAIN VERY LARGE IN SWELL N OF HAT.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A NEW
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KRAH 082106
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 082106
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 082106
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 082106
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 082106
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 082105
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS
THE WRF-NMM/NSSL-WRF AND HRRR INDICATE A WEAKENING BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT LESS THAN 0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. MEAN RH
500-1000 MB INCREASES BUT THERE IS A LOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TO ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
LATEST MODELS NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ISSUE
A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COULD
OCCUR. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY:

TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF U.S...BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK
OF MOISTURE SOURCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER EASTERN NC
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHILLY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW AND CONTINUING
WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RISE/DEAMPLIFY...BUT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING
TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 08/12Z GFS AND 08/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER. ECMWF QUITE A BIT STRONGER
WITH FORCING...MOISTURE AND KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP LIQUID. WHILE GFS
LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH...IT BRINGS THE THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR E NC. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...IN TRACKING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ON
THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF
RA/SN MIX WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THE
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY TO AROUND -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1220-1230M RANGE. THIS CAN BRING VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S.

MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONG WAVE THOUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS/WIND AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS 1Z-6Z THEN FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND
DRIER/COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL TO MUCH DRY LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO
OVERCOME TUESDAY AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
SO EXPECTING DRY WEATHER WITH ANY CLOUD BASES TO BE AT VFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST.  STILL QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS IT
IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN AFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. A NEW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR
TUESDAY.

LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST
AND THE WAVE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL AS THEY ARE UNDERDONE
BY SEVERAL FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE
THIS EVENING BUT THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THIS WILL
HALT ANY FURTHER DECREASE IN SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT HIGHEST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND ALL WATERS TUESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT NOT CONVINCED FREQUENCY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A GALE WARNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. LATE TUESDAY GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET WITH PERIODS
SHORTENING UP ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. EXPECT NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH
AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER
COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KILM 082024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER
REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY
CREATING BRIEF MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND PREVAILING VFR. ON TUESDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO
INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP
DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 082024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER
REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY
CREATING BRIEF MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND PREVAILING VFR. ON TUESDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO
INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP
DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 082024
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER
REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY
CREATING BRIEF MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND PREVAILING VFR. ON TUESDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO
INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP
DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/SHK



000
FXUS62 KRAH 082023
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 081804
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO  A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. WITH 100-150M HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING OUR REGION...THE
BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
A BAND OF SHOWERS AS A LEAD FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SITTING IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z...AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.  WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S...MODELS BARELY SHOW ANY MLCAPE AT ALL.
HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CENTERED
JUST UPSTREAM OVER UPSTATE SC COMBINED WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TOP DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.  -22

TONIGHT...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS OVER
VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS
INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR PATCHY FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT
THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS
WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY
MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15
MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER
TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 20Z
AND 02Z...THEN TURN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND A WIND GUST TO 30-35MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS...THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. AS THE SHOWERS EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
THIS EVENING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN VA..WHICH MAY DRAW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CAUSE A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON
TUESDAY

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 081746
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. EASTERN NC IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT ABOUT TO
ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 19Z. STILL THINK
PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z BUT WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS AFTER 21Z AS THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE HIGH RES MODELS. WILL NOT TINKER WITH FORECAST
HIGHS AS COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE EXPECTING HIGHS IN LAND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH 45 TO 50 EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...FAST SHRT WV WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS MAINLY THIS EVENING. MID LVL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL MIXED PCPN BUT LOW LVLS AND SFC TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM AND WILL KEEP WORDING AS RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
CLEARING LATE WITH MID TEMPS MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20 POPS FOR RA/SN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED ATTM. CONTINUING CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH AXIS OF UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW
AND CONTINUING WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DEAMPLIFY BUT MEAN
HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW AVG AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 30S WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THUR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
THOUGH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER.

FRIDAY...DISAGREEMENT ARISES ON POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR
FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRES SYSTEM PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. LATEST 08/00Z ECMWF QUITE A BIT
STRONGER WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE. THIS SOLN OPENING BRIEFLY
OPENING UP THE GOM AND TAPPING INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS SOLN IS
ALSO WARMER...AND KEEPS BULK OF PRECIP LIQUID. OPERATIONAL GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND IS LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH BRINGS THREAT OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX FOR E NC. TAKING A LOOK AT THE NEW GFS PARALLEL...A
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PASSING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF E NC WOULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR WINTRY WEATHER. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
JUST 20 POPS WITH A RA/SN MIX THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC
OUTBREAK AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF AND MOST OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENS
MEMBERS INDICATING SHARPLY FALLING HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -25 DEGREES C AND THICKNESSES
BELOW 500M! THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY BREAK
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD IT VERIFY. EC MOS VALUES AS COLD AS
THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPS AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TEENS.
THE GFS IS A BIT WARMER WITH MAX T`S IN THE LOW 30S AND LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER TEENS. WILL PLAY CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND FORECAST
`MILDER` TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS/WIND AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS 1Z-6Z THEN FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND
DRIER/COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL TO MUCH DRY LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO
OVERCOME TUESDAY AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
SO EXPECTING DRY WEATHER WITH ANY CLOUD BASES TO BE AT VFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KNOTS. A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. A NEW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR
TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY COLD
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED ALL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE WINDS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS IN GUSTS TUESDAY WITH GOOD
COLD ADVECTION. VERY DANGEROUS SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 4 AM MON...VERY POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW 15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND
MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUED FOR WIND
AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS AND ADJACENT
RIVERS. A BREAK IN THE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY
THOUGH YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...GAGES AT CEDAR ISLAND...OCRACOKE AND AT
COAST GUARD HATTERAS ARE SHOWING WATER LEVELS ARE COMING DOWN
EASING THE SOUNDSIDE FLOODING THREAT BUT OCEAN OVERWASH WILL
STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS INTO TONIGHT SO CURRENT
WARNINGS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY LATER TODAY TO HANDLE
THE OVERWASH THREAT AT HIGH TIDE.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KILM 081721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1221 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TODAY. THE FIRST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
ONE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DURING WEDNESDAY. AFTER TODAY...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK TO TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHEN ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE
A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUE. SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TUE AND MAY
EVEN LEAD TO SOME VIRGA. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS
DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING
ARCTIC SURGE WILL DROP 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C TUE TO NEAR -13C
LATER WED.

COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ON TUE WILL KEEP HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER COLD AND LOWS
ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN LOWER
WED AND WED NIGHT DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE ON WED.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 40S WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND MID TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BUT THE LIMITED
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW SUGGESTS QPF WILL BE VERY LOW. PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE HELPS DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NOT
READY TO BUY INTO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT IS
6 DAYS OUT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY
CREATING BRIEF MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND PREVAILING VFR. ON TUESDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO
INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP
DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...A RESULT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED
SURFACE GRADIENT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS WED
MORNING...A PAUSE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF COLD ADVECTION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE VERY STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT WED NIGHT
DURING THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT NEAR
THE 20 NM BORDER...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
AMZ252...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
THU AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN END AND SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS
TO WEAKEN. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING TO UNDER 10 KT THU NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO
APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATER FRI NIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL BE FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 3 TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI AND 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 081549
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO  A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. WITH 100-150M HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING OUR REGION...THE
BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
A BAND OF SHOWERS AS A LEAD FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SITTING IN THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SOMETIME AROUND 20Z...AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.  WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S...MODELS BARELY SHOW ANY MLCAPE AT ALL.
HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CENTERED
JUST UPSTREAM OVER UPSTATE SC COMBINED WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TOP DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.  -22

TONIGHT...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS OVER
VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS
INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR PATCHY FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT
THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS
WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY
MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15
MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER
TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 081502
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS
COASTAL LOW HAS DEPARTED BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TODAY. EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
WHERE CLOUDS ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRUSH
BY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THINK
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z PER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF/NMM MODELS BUT WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS INLAND AFT 21Z IN A NOD TO THE FASTER DETERMINISTIC
GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF MODELS. WILL NOT TINKER WITH FORECAST HIGHS AS
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
BE EXPECTING HIGHS IN LAND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 45 TO 50
EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...FAST SHRT WV WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS MAINLY THIS EVENING. MID LVL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL MIXED PCPN BUT LOW LVLS AND SFC TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM AND WILL KEEP WORDING AS RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
CLEARING LATE WITH MID TEMPS MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20 POPS FOR RA/SN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED ATTM. CONTINUING CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH AXIS OF UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW
AND CONTINUING WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DEAMPLIFY BUT MEAN
HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW AVG AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 30S WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THUR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
THOUGH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER.

FRIDAY...DISAGREEMENT ARISES ON POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR
FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRES SYSTEM PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. LATEST 08/00Z ECMWF QUITE A BIT
STRONGER WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE. THIS SOLN OPENING BREIFLY
OPENING UP THE GOM AND TAPPING INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS SOLN IS
ALSO WARMER...AND KEEPS BULK OF PRECIP LIQUID. OPERATIONAL GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND IS LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH BRINGS THREAT OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX FOR E NC. TAKING A LOOK AT THE NEW GFS PARALLEL...A
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PASSING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF E NC WOULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR WINTRY WEATHER. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
JUST 20 POPS WITH A RA/SN MIX THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC
OUTBREAK AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF AND MOST OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENS
MEMBERS INDICATING SHARPLY FALLING HEIGHT ANOMOLIES. THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -25 DEGREES C AND THICKNESSES
BELOW 500M! THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY BREAK
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD IT VERIFY. EC MOS VALUES AS COLD AS
THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPS AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TEENS.
THE GFS IS A BIT WARMER WITH MAX T`S IN THE LOW 30S AND LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER TEENS. WILL PLAY CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND FORECAST
`MILDER` TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS AREA. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM W-NW WITH
ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT. SCT SHRA EXPECTED BUT CIGS ABOVE 3K FT.
PRECIP THREAT ENDING AND CLOUDS BECOMING SCT AFTER 06Z. GFS GDNC
IS INDICATING SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE BUT LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH WESTERLY WINDS...AND KEPT VFR WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KNOTS. A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...ALL GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
HAVE BEEN DROPPED DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS ARE NOW BELOW 35 KT. VERY DANGEROUS SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 10 FT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 4 AM MON...VERY POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW 15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND
MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUED FOR WIND
AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS AND ADJACENT
RIVERS. A BREAK IN THE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY
THOUGH YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 955 AM MONDAY...GAGES AT CEDAR ISLAND...OCRACOKE AND AT
COAST GUARD HATTERAS ARE SHOWING WATER LEVELS ARE COMING DOWN
EASING THE SOUNDSIDE FLOODING THREAT BUT OCEAN OVERWASH WILL
STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS INTO TONIGHT SO CURRENT
WARNINGS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY LATER TODAY TO HANDLE
THE OVERWASH THREAT AT HIGH TIDE.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KILM 081423
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
923 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TODAY. THE FIRST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
ONE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DURING WEDNESDAY. AFTER TODAY...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK TO TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHEN ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE MID MORNING UPDATE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. EXITING POWERFUL LOW TO THE NE WILL FIND THE
ILM CWA WITHIN A TEMPORARY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRANQUIL WX WILL
LAST THRU THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HRS OF TODAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL OCCUR THAT WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF THAT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE U.S. MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTROL ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR
MASSES TO DROP DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...INCLUDING THE ILM CWA.

MODELS INDICATE THE 1ST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING THIS
EVENING. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THIS AFTN...AND LIFTS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
AND IN THE PROCESS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS
MOST BENEFICIAL. HAVE GONE WITH THE NAM THAT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER BUT
NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH FORCING AND DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER VORT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS PROGGED TO RUN 4K TO 5K FT AT THE TIME WHEN THE PCPN
OCCURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR ANY POSSIBLE FROZEN
PCPN WITH THIS CFP. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WILL DROP FROM THE DAYS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY THIS EVENING. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FA UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING MON NIGHT WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DROPPING FROM THE 540S EARLY MON EVENING TO THE 520S BY
DAYBREAK TUE. VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS AND THUS HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THEIR CONSENSUS TO AT
OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUE. SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TUE AND MAY
EVEN LEAD TO SOME VIRGA. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS
DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING
ARCTIC SURGE WILL DROP 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C TUE TO NEAR -13C
LATER WED.

COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ON TUE WILL KEEP HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER COLD AND LOWS
ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN LOWER
WED AND WED NIGHT DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE ON WED.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 40S WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND MID TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BUT THE LIMITED
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW SUGGESTS QPF WILL BE VERY LOW. PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE HELPS DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NOT
READY TO BUY INTO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT IS
6 DAYS OUT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH VFR...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY CREATING BRIEF MVFR.
WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WARMER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS. THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND
PREVAILING VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
THIS MORNING WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...AND CONTINUES INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD DUE TO A CONTINUED
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINING WITH COLD/ARCTIC SURGES.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN THAT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SW WINDS
AND WEAK WAA DO PICKUP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTN...AND WILL FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ITS AFTER THE CFP
WHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND CAA OVERSPREADS THE FA. THE COLD SURGE WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG TONIGHT...RESULTING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS REACHING SCA VALUES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...THEN PICK BACK UP
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
AGAIN LEADING THE CHARGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...A RESULT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED
SURFACE GRADIENT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS WED
MORNING...A PAUSE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF COLD ADVECTION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE VERY STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT WED NIGHT
DURING THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT NEAR
THE 20 NM BORDER...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
AMZ252...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
THU AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN END AND SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS
TO WEAKEN. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING TO UNDER 10 KT THU NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO
APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATER FRI NIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL BE FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 3 TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI AND 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 081423
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
923 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TODAY. THE FIRST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
ONE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DURING WEDNESDAY. AFTER TODAY...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK TO TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHEN ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE MID MORNING UPDATE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. EXITING POWERFUL LOW TO THE NE WILL FIND THE
ILM CWA WITHIN A TEMPORARY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRANQUIL WX WILL
LAST THRU THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HRS OF TODAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL OCCUR THAT WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF THAT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE U.S. MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTROL ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR
MASSES TO DROP DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...INCLUDING THE ILM CWA.

MODELS INDICATE THE 1ST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING THIS
EVENING. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THIS AFTN...AND LIFTS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
AND IN THE PROCESS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS
MOST BENEFICIAL. HAVE GONE WITH THE NAM THAT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER BUT
NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH FORCING AND DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER VORT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS PROGGED TO RUN 4K TO 5K FT AT THE TIME WHEN THE PCPN
OCCURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR ANY POSSIBLE FROZEN
PCPN WITH THIS CFP. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WILL DROP FROM THE DAYS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY THIS EVENING. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FA UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING MON NIGHT WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DROPPING FROM THE 540S EARLY MON EVENING TO THE 520S BY
DAYBREAK TUE. VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS AND THUS HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THEIR CONSENSUS TO AT
OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUE. SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TUE AND MAY
EVEN LEAD TO SOME VIRGA. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS
DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING
ARCTIC SURGE WILL DROP 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C TUE TO NEAR -13C
LATER WED.

COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ON TUE WILL KEEP HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER COLD AND LOWS
ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN LOWER
WED AND WED NIGHT DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE ON WED.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 40S WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND MID TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BUT THE LIMITED
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW SUGGESTS QPF WILL BE VERY LOW. PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE HELPS DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NOT
READY TO BUY INTO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT IS
6 DAYS OUT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH VFR...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY CREATING BRIEF MVFR.
WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WARMER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS. THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND
PREVAILING VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
THIS MORNING WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...AND CONTINUES INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD DUE TO A CONTINUED
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINING WITH COLD/ARCTIC SURGES.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN THAT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SW WINDS
AND WEAK WAA DO PICKUP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTN...AND WILL FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ITS AFTER THE CFP
WHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND CAA OVERSPREADS THE FA. THE COLD SURGE WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG TONIGHT...RESULTING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS REACHING SCA VALUES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...THEN PICK BACK UP
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
AGAIN LEADING THE CHARGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...A RESULT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED
SURFACE GRADIENT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS WED
MORNING...A PAUSE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF COLD ADVECTION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE VERY STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT WED NIGHT
DURING THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT NEAR
THE 20 NM BORDER...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
AMZ252...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
THU AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN END AND SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS
TO WEAKEN. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING TO UNDER 10 KT THU NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO
APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATER FRI NIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL BE FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 3 TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI AND 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 081233
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
733 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...UPDATED TO DROP WIND ADVISORY OUTER BANKS
AND CARTERET COUNTY...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL BUT OUTER BANKS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...STRONG SFC LOW PRES APPROX 290 MILES E-SE
OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 40 MPH PER STLT TRACKING. RAIN HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS AND WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR
MAINLAND HYDE/DARE COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM...AND WILL DOWNGRADE
CARTERET AND OBX HYDE/DARE TO WIND ADVISORY RUNNING UNTIL 8AM/9AM.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
AROUND 32 DEGS MAINLY W OF HWY 17 FOR AN HOUR OR SO AROUND 7
AM...AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE FOR ELEVATED
ROADWAYS...AND PLAN TO HANDLE WITH SPS ISSUANCE.

FAST-MOVING SHRT WV WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN THIS AFTN
WITH CHC OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL PLAINS AFTER 3 PM.

INCREASING LOW LVL THICKNESSES WITH GOOD INSOLATION INTO EARLY
AFTN SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 52-54 INLAND WITH 46-50 FOR OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...FAST SHRT WV WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS MAINLY THIS EVENING. MID LVL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL MIXED PCPN BUT LOW LVLS AND SFC TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM AND WILL KEEP WORDING AS RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
CLEARING LATE WITH MID TEMPS MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20 POPS FOR RA/SN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED ATTM. CONTINUING CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH AXIS OF UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW
AND CONTINUING WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DEAMPLIFY BUT MEAN
HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW AVG AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 30S WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THUR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
THOUGH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER.

FRIDAY...DISAGREEMENT ARISES ON POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR
FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRES SYSTEM PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. LATEST 08/00Z ECMWF QUITE A BIT
STRONGER WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE. THIS SOLN OPENING BREIFLY
OPENING UP THE GOM AND TAPPING INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS SOLN IS
ALSO WARMER...AND KEEPS BULK OF PRECIP LIQUID. OPERATIONAL GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND IS LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH BRINGS THREAT OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX FOR E NC. TAKING A LOOK AT THE NEW GFS PARALLEL...A
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PASSING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF E NC WOULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR WINTRY WEATHER. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
JUST 20 POPS WITH A RA/SN MIX THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC
OUTBREAK AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF AND MOST OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENS
MEMBERS INDICATING SHARPLY FALLING HEIGHT ANOMOLIES. THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -25 DEGREES C AND THICKNESSES
BELOW 500M! THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY BREAK
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD IT VERIFY. EC MOS VALUES AS COLD AS
THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPS AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TEENS.
THE GFS IS A BIT WARMER WITH MAX T`S IN THE LOW 30S AND LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER TEENS. WILL PLAY CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND FORECAST
`MILDER` TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS AREA. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM W-NW WITH
ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT. SCT SHRA EXPECTED BUT CIGS ABOVE 3K FT.
PRECIP THREAT ENDING AND CLOUDS BECOMING SCT AFTER 06Z. GFS GDNC
IS INDICATING SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE BUT LOOKS OVERDONE
WITH WESTERLY WINDS...AND KEPT VFR WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KNOTS. A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...DROPPED SCA FOR ALB SOUND AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER...NO OTHER CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...STRONG SFC LOW PRES
APPROX 290 MILES E-SE OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 40 MPH PER
STLT TRACKING. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND WILL DOWNGRADE
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS DOWN ONE CATEGORY AT 4 AM...WITH SCA FOR
SOUNDS AND GALES OUTER WATERS UNTIL 10 AM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW SCA ALL WATERS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...BUT THEN SW
WINDS INCREASING MOST OF WATERS LATE AFTN INTO EVENING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
UP TO 15-20 FT EARLY THIS MORING WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-10 FT BY EARLY
AFTN...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR
HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR WIND AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS
AND ADJACENT RIVERS. A BREAK IN THE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR
ON THURSDAY THOUGH YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...GAGES AT CEDAR ISLAND...OCRACOKE AND AT
COAST GUARD HATTERAS ARE SHOWING WATER LEVELS RISING AGAIN SO NO
CHANGES TO WARNINGS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...WATER LEVELS DIMINISHING WITH DECREASING
WINDS AND SHIFT TO NW OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL SOME CONCERN FOR HIGH
TIDE AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR OBX HYDE/DARE AND CARTERET. WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR
CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES AS 911 CENTERS REPORT FLOODING HAS
ENDED.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KILM 081200
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE FIRST OF
TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
ONE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DURING WEDNESDAY. AFTER TODAY...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK TO TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHEN ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. EXITING POWERFUL LOW TO THE NE WILL FIND THE
ILM CWA WITHIN A TEMPORARY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRANQUIL WX WILL
LAST THRU THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HRS OF TODAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL OCCUR THAT WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF THAT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE U.S. MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTROL ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR
MASSES TO DROP DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...INCLUDING THE ILM CWA.

MODELS INDICATE THE 1ST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING THIS
EVENING. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THIS AFTN...AND LIFTS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
AND IN THE PROCESS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS
MOST BENEFICIAL. HAVE GONE WITH THE NAM THAT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER BUT
NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH FORCING AND DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER VORT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS PROGGED TO RUN 4K TO 5K FT AT THE TIME WHEN THE PCPN
OCCURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR ANY POSSIBLE FROZEN
PCPN WITH THIS CFP. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WILL DROP FROM THE DAYS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY THIS EVENING. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FA UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING MON NIGHT WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DROPPING FROM THE 540S EARLY MON EVENING TO THE 520S BY
DAYBREAK TUE. VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS AND THUS HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THEIR CONSENSUS TO AT
OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUE. SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TUE AND MAY
EVEN LEAD TO SOME VIRGA. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS
DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING
ARCTIC SURGE WILL DROP 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C TUE TO NEAR -13C
LATER WED.

COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ON TUE WILL KEEP HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER COLD AND LOWS
ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN LOWER
WED AND WED NIGHT DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE ON WED.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 40S WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND MID TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BUT THE LIMITED
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW SUGGESTS QPF WILL BE VERY LOW. PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE HELPS DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NOT
READY TO BUY INTO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT IS
6 DAYS OUT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH VFR...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY CREATING BRIEF MVFR.
WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN WARMER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS. THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND
PREVAILING VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...AND CONTINUES INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD DUE TO A CONTINUED
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINING WITH COLD/ARCTIC SURGES.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN THAT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SW WINDS
AND WEAK WAA DO PICKUP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTN...AND WILL FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ITS AFTER THE CFP
WHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND CAA OVERSPREADS THE FA. THE COLD SURGE WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG TONIGHT...RESULTING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS REACHING SCA VALUES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...THEN PICK BACK UP
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
AGAIN LEADING THE CHARGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...A RESULT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED
SURFACE GRADIENT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS WED
MORNING...A PAUSE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF COLD ADVECTION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE VERY STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT WED NIGHT
DURING THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT NEAR
THE 20 NM BORDER...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
AMZ252...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
THU AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN END AND SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS
TO WEAKEN. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING TO UNDER 10 KT THU NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO
APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATER FRI NIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL BE FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 3 TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI AND 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 081159
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD
AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS.

THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT
THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE...IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD
OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW
DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS.

FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK
DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS
AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE

COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-
30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 081159
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD
AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS.

THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT
THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE...IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD
OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW
DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS.

FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK
DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS
AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE

COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-
30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 081159
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD
AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS.

THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT
THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE...IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD
OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW
DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS.

FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK
DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS
AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE

COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-
30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KILM 081138
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE FIRST OF
TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
ONE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DURING WEDNESDAY. AFTER TODAY...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK TO TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHEN ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. EXITING POWERFUL LOW TO THE NE WILL FIND THE
ILM CWA WITHIN A TEMPORARY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRANQUIL WX WILL
LAST THRU THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HRS OF TODAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL OCCUR THAT WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF THAT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE U.S. MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTROL ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR
MASSES TO DROP DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...INCLUDING THE ILM CWA.

MODELS INDICATE THE 1ST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING THIS
EVENING. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THIS AFTN...AND LIFTS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
AND IN THE PROCESS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS
MOST BENEFICIAL. HAVE GONE WITH THE NAM THAT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER BUT
NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH FORCING AND DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER VORT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS PROGGED TO RUN 4K TO 5K FT AT THE TIME WHEN THE PCPN
OCCURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR ANY POSSIBLE FROZEN
PCPN WITH THIS CFP. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WILL DROP FROM THE DAYS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY THIS EVENING. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FA UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING MON NIGHT WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DROPPING FROM THE 540S EARLY MON EVENING TO THE 520S BY
DAYBREAK TUE. VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS AND THUS HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THEIR CONSENSUS TO AT
OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUE. SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TUE AND MAY
EVEN LEAD TO SOME VIRGA. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS
DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING
ARCTIC SURGE WILL DROP 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C TUE TO NEAR -13C
LATER WED.

COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ON TUE WILL KEEP HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER COLD AND LOWS
ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN LOWER
WED AND WED NIGHT DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE ON WED.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 40S WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND MID TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BUT THE LIMITED
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW SUGGESTS QPF WILL BE VERY LOW. PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE HELPS DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NOT
READY TO BUY INTO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT IS
6 DAYS OUT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POWERFUL OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE NE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PULL TO THE NE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. THE GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE CLOUD DECKS WILL
TRANSITION TO WNW TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KT WITH NO GUSTS ONCE SKIES
CLEAR. A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROF MIDDAY TODAY...AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
VORT WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULT IN A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW PRIOR
TO THE CFP MONDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE IN
QUESTION...MEANING WILL IT BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE SFC OR
JUST PLAIN RAIN. FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING...STRONG CAA WILL
ENSUE UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...AND CONTINUES INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD DUE TO A CONTINUED
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINING WITH COLD/ARCTIC SURGES.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN THAT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SW WINDS
AND WEAK WAA DO PICKUP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTN...AND WILL FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ITS AFTER THE CFP
WHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND CAA OVERSPREADS THE FA. THE COLD SURGE WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG TONIGHT...RESULTING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS REACHING SCA VALUES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...THEN PICK BACK UP
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
AGAIN LEADING THE CHARGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...A RESULT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED
SURFACE GRADIENT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS WED
MORNING...A PAUSE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF COLD ADVECTION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE VERY STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT WED NIGHT
DURING THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT NEAR
THE 20 NM BORDER...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
AMZ252...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
THU AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN END AND SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS
TO WEAKEN. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING TO UNDER 10 KT THU NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO
APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATER FRI NIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL BE FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 3 TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI AND 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 081138
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE FIRST OF
TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
ONE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DURING WEDNESDAY. AFTER TODAY...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK TO TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHEN ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. EXITING POWERFUL LOW TO THE NE WILL FIND THE
ILM CWA WITHIN A TEMPORARY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRANQUIL WX WILL
LAST THRU THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HRS OF TODAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL OCCUR THAT WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF THAT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE U.S. MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTROL ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR
MASSES TO DROP DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...INCLUDING THE ILM CWA.

MODELS INDICATE THE 1ST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING THIS
EVENING. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THIS AFTN...AND LIFTS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
AND IN THE PROCESS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS
MOST BENEFICIAL. HAVE GONE WITH THE NAM THAT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER BUT
NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH FORCING AND DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER VORT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS PROGGED TO RUN 4K TO 5K FT AT THE TIME WHEN THE PCPN
OCCURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR ANY POSSIBLE FROZEN
PCPN WITH THIS CFP. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WILL DROP FROM THE DAYS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY THIS EVENING. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FA UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING MON NIGHT WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DROPPING FROM THE 540S EARLY MON EVENING TO THE 520S BY
DAYBREAK TUE. VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS AND THUS HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THEIR CONSENSUS TO AT
OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUE. SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TUE AND MAY
EVEN LEAD TO SOME VIRGA. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS
DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING
ARCTIC SURGE WILL DROP 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C TUE TO NEAR -13C
LATER WED.

COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ON TUE WILL KEEP HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER COLD AND LOWS
ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN LOWER
WED AND WED NIGHT DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE ON WED.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 40S WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND MID TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BUT THE LIMITED
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW SUGGESTS QPF WILL BE VERY LOW. PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE HELPS DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NOT
READY TO BUY INTO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT IS
6 DAYS OUT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POWERFUL OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE NE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PULL TO THE NE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. THE GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE CLOUD DECKS WILL
TRANSITION TO WNW TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KT WITH NO GUSTS ONCE SKIES
CLEAR. A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROF MIDDAY TODAY...AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
VORT WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULT IN A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW PRIOR
TO THE CFP MONDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE IN
QUESTION...MEANING WILL IT BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE SFC OR
JUST PLAIN RAIN. FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING...STRONG CAA WILL
ENSUE UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...AND CONTINUES INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD DUE TO A CONTINUED
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINING WITH COLD/ARCTIC SURGES.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN THAT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SW WINDS
AND WEAK WAA DO PICKUP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTN...AND WILL FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ITS AFTER THE CFP
WHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND CAA OVERSPREADS THE FA. THE COLD SURGE WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG TONIGHT...RESULTING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS REACHING SCA VALUES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...THEN PICK BACK UP
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
AGAIN LEADING THE CHARGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...A RESULT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED
SURFACE GRADIENT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS WED
MORNING...A PAUSE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF COLD ADVECTION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE VERY STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT WED NIGHT
DURING THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT NEAR
THE 20 NM BORDER...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
AMZ252...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
THU AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN END AND SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS
TO WEAKEN. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING TO UNDER 10 KT THU NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO
APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATER FRI NIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL BE FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 3 TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI AND 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 081138
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE FIRST OF
TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
ONE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DURING WEDNESDAY. AFTER TODAY...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK TO TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHEN ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. EXITING POWERFUL LOW TO THE NE WILL FIND THE
ILM CWA WITHIN A TEMPORARY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC. THE CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRANQUIL WX WILL
LAST THRU THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HRS OF TODAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL OCCUR THAT WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF THAT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE U.S. MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
DOWN TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTROL ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR
MASSES TO DROP DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...INCLUDING THE ILM CWA.

MODELS INDICATE THE 1ST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING THIS
EVENING. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THIS AFTN...AND LIFTS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
AND IN THE PROCESS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS
MOST BENEFICIAL. HAVE GONE WITH THE NAM THAT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER BUT
NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH FORCING AND DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER VORT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS PROGGED TO RUN 4K TO 5K FT AT THE TIME WHEN THE PCPN
OCCURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR ANY POSSIBLE FROZEN
PCPN WITH THIS CFP. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WILL DROP FROM THE DAYS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY THIS EVENING. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FA UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING MON NIGHT WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DROPPING FROM THE 540S EARLY MON EVENING TO THE 520S BY
DAYBREAK TUE. VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS AND THUS HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THEIR CONSENSUS TO AT
OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUE. SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TUE AND MAY
EVEN LEAD TO SOME VIRGA. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS
DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING
ARCTIC SURGE WILL DROP 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C TUE TO NEAR -13C
LATER WED.

COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ON TUE WILL KEEP HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER COLD AND LOWS
ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN LOWER
WED AND WED NIGHT DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE ON WED.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 40S WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND MID TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BUT THE LIMITED
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW SUGGESTS QPF WILL BE VERY LOW. PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE HELPS DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NOT
READY TO BUY INTO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT IS
6 DAYS OUT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POWERFUL OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE NE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PULL TO THE NE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. THE GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE CLOUD DECKS WILL
TRANSITION TO WNW TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KT WITH NO GUSTS ONCE SKIES
CLEAR. A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROF MIDDAY TODAY...AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
VORT WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULT IN A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW PRIOR
TO THE CFP MONDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE IN
QUESTION...MEANING WILL IT BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE SFC OR
JUST PLAIN RAIN. FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING...STRONG CAA WILL
ENSUE UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS...AND CONTINUES INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD DUE TO A CONTINUED
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINING WITH COLD/ARCTIC SURGES.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN THAT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SW WINDS
AND WEAK WAA DO PICKUP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTN...AND WILL FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ITS AFTER THE CFP
WHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND CAA OVERSPREADS THE FA. THE COLD SURGE WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG TONIGHT...RESULTING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS REACHING SCA VALUES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...THEN PICK BACK UP
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
AGAIN LEADING THE CHARGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...A RESULT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED
SURFACE GRADIENT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS WED
MORNING...A PAUSE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF COLD ADVECTION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE VERY STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT WED NIGHT
DURING THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT NEAR
THE 20 NM BORDER...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
AMZ252...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
THU AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN END AND SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS
TO WEAKEN. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING TO UNDER 10 KT THU NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO
APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATER FRI NIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL BE FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 3 TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI AND 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KMHX 080917
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
417 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT ON TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...STRONG SFC LOW PRES APPROX 290 MILES E-SE
OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 40 MPH PER STLT TRACKING. RAIN HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS AND WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY FOR
MAINLAND HYDE/DARE COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM...AND WILL DOWNGRADE
CARTERET AND OBX HYDE/DARE TO WIND ADVISORY RUNNING UNTIL 8AM/9AM.

CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
AROUND 32 DEGS MAINLY W OF HWY 17 FOR AN HOUR OR SO AROUND 7
AM...AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE FOR ELEVATED
ROADWAYS...AND PLAN TO HANDLE WITH SPS ISSUANCE.

FAST-MOVING SHRT WV WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN THIS AFTN
WITH CHC OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL PLAINS AFTER 3 PM.

INCREASING LOW LVL THICKNESSES WITH GOOD INSOLATION INTO EARLY
AFTN SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 52-54 INLAND WITH 46-50 FOR OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...FAST SHRT WV WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS MAINLY THIS EVENING. MID LVL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL MIXED PCPN BUT LOW LVLS AND SFC TEMPS
APPEAR TOO WARM AND WILL KEEP WORDING AS RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
CLEARING LATE WITH MID TEMPS MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20 POPS FOR RA/SN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED ATTM. CONTINUING CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH AXIS OF UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW
AND CONTINUING WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DEAMPLIFY BUT MEAN
HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW AVG AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 30S WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THUR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
THOUGH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER.

FRIDAY...DISAGREEMENT ARISES ON POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR
FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRES SYSTEM PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. LATEST 08/00Z ECMWF QUITE A BIT
STRONGER WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE. THIS SOLN OPENING BREIFLY
OPENING UP THE GOM AND TAPPING INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS SOLN IS
ALSO WARMER...AND KEEPS BULK OF PRECIP LIQUID. OPERATIONAL GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND IS LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH BRINGS THREAT OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX FOR E NC. TAKING A LOOK AT THE NEW GFS PARALLEL...A
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PASSING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF E NC WOULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR WINTRY WEATHER. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
JUST 20 POPS WITH A RA/SN MIX THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC
OUTBREAK AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF AND MOST OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENS
MEMBERS INDICATING SHARPLY FALLING HEIGHT ANOMOLIES. THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -25 DEGREES C AND THICKNESSES
BELOW 500M! THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY BREAK
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD IT VERIFY. EC MOS VALUES AS COLD AS
THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPS AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TEENS.
THE GFS IS A BIT WARMER WITH MAX T`S IN THE LOW 30S AND LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER TEENS. WILL PLAY CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND FORECAST
`MILDER` TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS REST OF NIGHT AS
LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM
W-NW WITH ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT. SCT SHRA EXPECTED BUT CIGS ABOVE
3K FT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH BY 10Z.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KNOTS. A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...STRONG SFC LOW PRES APPROX 290 MILES E-SE
OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 40 MPH PER STLT TRACKING. WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND WILL DOWNGRADE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS DOWN
ONE CATEGORY AT 4 AM...WITH SCA FOR SOUNDS AND GALES OUTER WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SCA ALL WATERS LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN...BUT THEN SW WINDS INCREASING MOST OF WATERS
LATE AFTN INTO EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 15-20 FT EARLY THIS MORING
WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-10 FT BY EARLY AFTN...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE
6 FT OUTER PORTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR
HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR WIND AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS
AND ADJACENT RIVERS. A BREAK IN THE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR
ON THURSDAY THOUGH YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...WATER LEVELS DIMINISHING WITH DECREASING
WINDS AND SHIFT TO NW OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL SOME CONCERN FOR HIGH
TIDE AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR OBX HYDE/DARE AND CARTERET. WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR
CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES AS 911 CENTERS REPORT FLOODING HAS
ENDED.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 080846
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...STORM FORCE LOW APPROX 225 MILES E-SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 40 MPH PER STLT TRACKING...WITH WIND
AND RAIN CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE OVER ERN NC. RAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TO DIMINISH ALONG OBX AND EXTENDED LIKELY POPS THERE A FEW MORE
HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR WARMER OBS INLAND. LAMP GDNC
STILL INDICATING TEMPS DROPPING TO LOWER 30S NEAR 6-7 AM...THUS
KEPT MIN TEMP FCST AS IS. NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER AT 4 AM.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM...INTENSE LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE E AT A DECENT CLIP. RAIN IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING/ENDING INLAND AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONT TO SPREAD
E OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DIMINISH INLAND AND WILL
DROP MOST OF THE WIND ADVISORIES EXCEPT FOR MAINLAND DARE AND
MAINLAND HYDE. WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG FROM EASTERN CARTERET TO
OUTER BANKS SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 30 DEEP INLAND LATE AND COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY ICY DEVELOP BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD WILL BE AS
WINDS WILL LIKELY DRY A LOT OF THE ROADS BEFORE TEMPS DROP TO
FREEZING.

NO CHANGES TO CSTL FLOOD HEADLINES. WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH OVER
AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH WIND DIR EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS WATER LEVELS SHLD PEAK OVER SOUND
SIDE OF OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA IN THE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SEEN AND LIMITED MOISTURE. KEPT POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACRS WRN SXNS. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE LWR
AND MID 50S INLAND AND AROUND 50 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20 POPS FOR RA/SN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED ATTM. CONTINUING CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH AXIS OF UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHS TEMPS
STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THICKNESSES QUITE LOW
AND CONTINUING WESTERLY BREEZE MAKES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT/DEAMPLIFY BUT MEAN
HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW AVG AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 30S WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THUR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
THOUGH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER.

FRIDAY...DISAGREEMENT ARISES ON POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR
FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/LOW PRES SYSTEM PIVOTS AROUND
BASE OF DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. LATEST 08/00Z ECMWF QUITE A BIT
STRONGER WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE. THIS SOLN OPENING BREIFLY
OPENING UP THE GOM AND TAPPING INTO DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS SOLN IS
ALSO WARMER...AND KEEPS BULK OF PRECIP LIQUID. OPERATIONAL GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND IS LESS AMPLIFIED THOUGH BRINGS THREAT OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX FOR E NC. TAKING A LOOK AT THE NEW GFS PARALLEL...A
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PASSING THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF E NC WOULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR WINTRY WEATHER. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
JUST 20 POPS WITH A RA/SN MIX THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC
OUTBREAK AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF AND MOST OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENS
MEMBERS INDICATING SHARPLY FALLING HEIGHT ANOMOLIES. THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -25 DEGREES C AND THICKNESSES
BELOW 500M! THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY BREAK
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD IT VERIFY. EC MOS VALUES AS COLD AS
THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPS AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TEENS.
THE GFS IS A BIT WARMER WITH MAX T`S IN THE LOW 30S AND LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER TEENS. WILL PLAY CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND FORECAST
`MILDER` TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS REST OF NIGHT AS
LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM
W-NW WITH ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT. SCT SHRA EXPECTED BUT CIGS ABOVE
3K FT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH BY 10Z.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE
BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KNOTS. A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN OR SNOW.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...STORM FORCE LOW APPROX 225 MILES E-SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 35 KT PER STLT TRACKING. WINDS
DIMINISHING ACROSS WATERS AND DROPPED STORM WARNING TO GALE FOR
PAMLICO SOUND. KEPT STORM WARNING FOR OUTER WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER WRN AREAS SO
WILL LOWER GALES TO SCA FOR WRN RIVERS. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ALONG
IMD CST/CSTL WTRS SO GALE/STORM WARNINGS CONT. WINDS SHLD CONT TO
GRAD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN VERY ROUGH ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND
20 FT OUTER WTRS.

PREV DISC...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS OF EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
64 KT ACROSS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS THE LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTN...AND WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 20-24 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. NW WINDS 15-25 KT EARLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
BY AFTN. SEAS 8-14 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
SUBSIDE TO 6-10 FT IN THE AFTN. SEAS 5-9 FT ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT IN THE AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MON...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR
HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR WIND AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS
AND ADJACENT RIVERS. A BREAK IN THE HIGH WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR
ON THURSDAY THOUGH YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WATER LVLS LIKELY HAVE PEAKED OR ARE PEAKING
FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH INTENSE WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS THE COASTAL FLOODING
SHLD PEAK ON SOUNDSIDE OF OBX WITH WATER LVLS 3 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH
AS 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE HUGE WAVES ON THE OCEAN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
OCEAN OVERWASH ALONG THE NORTHERN BEACHES ESPCLY DURING NEXT HIGH
TIDE AROUND 7 AM.

PREV DISC...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF THE NC
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NE TO NW
WINDS, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND
BASIN THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FROM AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY
(INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS
ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. CRAVEN COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE WATER LEVEL RISES 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEREFORE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT HERE.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SHORE BREAK
IN EXCESS OF 10 FT COMBINED WITH WAVE RUNUP IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND AREAS OF OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ047-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ093-094.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KRAH 080834
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD
AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS.

THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT
THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE...IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD
OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW
DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS.

FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK
DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS
AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE

COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-
30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI
BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 080834
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD
AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS.

THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT
THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE...IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD
OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW
DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS.

FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK
DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS
AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE

COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-
30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI
BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 080834
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD
AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS.

THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT
THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE...IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD
OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW
DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS.

FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK
DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS
AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE

COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-
30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI
BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KILM 080833
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
333 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE FIRST OF
TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
THIS PERIOD. EXITING POWERFUL LOW TO THE NE WILL FIND THE ILM CWA
WITHIN A TEMPORARY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE
CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRANQUIL WX WILL LAST THRU
THE LATE MORNING OR THE MIDDAY HRS OF TODAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CHANGES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL OCCUR THAT WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF DURING THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT THAT WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE U.S. MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND DOWN TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND
FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTROL ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW COLD CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR MASSES TO DROP DOWN SOUTH INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...INCLUDING THE SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE THE 1ST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR DURING THIS
EVENING. A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF THIS AFTN...AND LIFTS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
AND IN THE PROCESS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS
MOST BENEFICIAL. HAVE GONE WITH THE NAM THAT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER BUT
NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH FORCING AND DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER VORT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS PROGGED TO RUN 4K TO 5K FT AT THE TIME WHEN THE PCPN
OCCURS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR ANY POSSIBLE FROZEN
PCPN WITH THIS CFP. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WILL DROP FROM THE DAYS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY THIS EVENING. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FA UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING MON NIGHT WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESS DROPPING FROM THE 540S EARLY MON EVENING TO THE 520S BY
DAYBREAK TUE. VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS AND THUS HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THEIR CONSENSUS TO AT
OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUE. SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TUE AND MAY
EVEN LEAD TO SOME VIRGA. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS
DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING
ARCTIC SURGE WILL DROP 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C TUE TO NEAR -13C
LATER WED.

COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ON TUE WILL KEEP HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER COLD AND LOWS
ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN LOWER
WED AND WED NIGHT DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE ON WED.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 40S WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND MID TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BUT THE LIMITED
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW SUGGESTS QPF WILL BE VERY LOW. PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE HELPS DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIRFOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NOT READY
TO BUY INTO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT IS 6
DAYS OUT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POWERFUL OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE NE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PULL TO THE NE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. THE GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE CLOUD DECKS WILL
TRANSITION TO WNW TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KT WITH NO GUSTS ONCE SKIES
CLEAR. A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROF MIDDAY TODAY...AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
VORT WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULT IN A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW PRIOR
TO THE CFP MONDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE IN
QUESTION...MEANING WILL IT BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE SFC OR
JUST PLAIN RAIN. FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING...STRONG CAA WILL
ENSUE UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOWERED GALES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
WATERS...AND CONTINUED IT INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD DUE TO A
TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINING WITH COLD/ARCTIC SURGES NEARLY EACH DAY
OR ONGOING.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN THAT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SW WINDS
AND WEAK WAA DO PICKUP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTN...AND WILL FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ITS AFTER THE CFP
WHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND CAA OVERSPREADS THE FA. THE COLD SURGE WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG TONIGHT...RESULTING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS REACHING SCA VALUES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE AT
THEIR LOWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN...THEN PICK BACK UP
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES
AGAIN LEADING THE CHARGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...A RESULT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED
SURFACE GRADIENT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS WED
MORNING...A PAUSE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF COLD ADVECTION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE VERY STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT WED NIGHT
DURING THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT NEAR
THE 20 NM BORDER...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
AMZ252...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
THU AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN END AND SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS
TO WEAKEN. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING TO UNDER 10 KT THU NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO
APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATER FRI NIGHT WITH
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL BE FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 3 TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2
TO 3 FT BY FRI AND 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 080730
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
227 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD
AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS.

THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT
THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE, IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD
OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW
DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS.

FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK
DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS
AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE

COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-
30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI
BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 080639
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...STORM FORCE LOW APPROX 225 MILES E-SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 40 MPH PER STLT TRACKING...WITH WIND
AND RAIN CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE OVER ERN NC. RAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TO DIMINISH ALONG OBX AND EXTENDED LIKELY POPS THERE A FEW MORE
HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR WARMER OBS INLAND. LAMP GDNC
STILL INDICATING TEMPS DROPPING TO LOWER 30S NEAR 6-7 AM...THUS
KEPT MIN TEMP FCST AS IS. NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER AT 4 AM.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM...INTENSE LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE E AT A DECENT CLIP. RAIN IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING/ENDING INLAND AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONT TO SPREAD
E OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DIMINISH INLAND AND WILL
DROP MOST OF THE WIND ADVISORIES EXCEPT FOR MAINLAND DARE AND
MAINLAND HYDE. WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG FROM EASTERN CARTERET TO
OUTER BANKS SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 30 DEEP INLAND LATE AND COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY ICY DEVELOP BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD WILL BE AS
WINDS WILL LIKELY DRY A LOT OF THE ROADS BEFORE TEMPS DROP TO
FREEZING.

NO CHANGES TO CSTL FLOOD HEADLINES. WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH OVER
AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH WIND DIR EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS WATER LEVELS SHLD PEAK OVER SOUND
SIDE OF OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA IN THE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SEEN AND LIMITED MOISTURE. KEPT POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACRS WRN SXNS. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE LWR
AND MID 50S INLAND AND AROUND 50 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MON INTO TUE AS AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A
SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SAT
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS BUT AGAIN ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

HIGHS MOST DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT EVEN COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY WHEN POTENTIAL
HIGHS COULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS REST OF NIGHT AS
LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM
W-NW WITH ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT. SCT SHRA EXPECTED BUT CIGS ABOVE
3K FT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH BY 10Z.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...STORM FORCE LOW APPROX 225 MILES E-SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 35 KT PER STLT TRACKING. WINDS
DIMINISHING ACROSS WATERS AND DROPPED STORM WARNING TO GALE FOR
PAMLICO SOUND. KEPT STORM WARNING FOR OUTER WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER WRN AREAS SO
WILL LOWER GALES TO SCA FOR WRN RIVERS. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ALONG
IMD CST/CSTL WTRS SO GALE/STORM WARNINGS CONT. WINDS SHLD CONT TO
GRAD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN VERY ROUGH ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND
20 FT OUTER WTRS.

PREV DISC...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS OF EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
64 KT ACROSS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS THE LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTN...AND WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 20-24 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. NW WINDS 15-25 KT EARLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
BY AFTN. SEAS 8-14 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
SUBSIDE TO 6-10 FT IN THE AFTN. SEAS 5-9 FT ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT IN THE AFTN.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR
HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR WIND AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS
AND ADJACENT RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WATER LVLS LIKELY HAVE PEAKED OR ARE PEAKING
FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH INTENSE WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS THE COASTAL FLOODING
SHLD PEAK ON SOUNDSIDE OF OBX WITH WATER LVLS 3 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH
AS 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE HUGE WAVES ON THE OCEAN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
OCEAN OVERWASH ALONG THE NORTHERN BEACHES ESPCLY DURING NEXT HIGH
TIDE AROUND 7 AM.

PREV DISC...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF THE NC
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NE TO NW
WINDS, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND
BASIN THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FROM AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY
(INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS
ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. CRAVEN COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE WATER LEVEL RISES 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEREFORE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT HERE.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SHORE BREAK
IN EXCESS OF 10 FT COMBINED WITH WAVE RUNUP IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND AREAS OF OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ047-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ093-094.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...RF/JME/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/JME/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



000
FXUS62 KMHX 080639
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...STORM FORCE LOW APPROX 225 MILES E-SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 40 MPH PER STLT TRACKING...WITH WIND
AND RAIN CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE OVER ERN NC. RAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TO DIMINISH ALONG OBX AND EXTENDED LIKELY POPS THERE A FEW MORE
HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR WARMER OBS INLAND. LAMP GDNC
STILL INDICATING TEMPS DROPPING TO LOWER 30S NEAR 6-7 AM...THUS
KEPT MIN TEMP FCST AS IS. NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER AT 4 AM.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM...INTENSE LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE E AT A DECENT CLIP. RAIN IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING/ENDING INLAND AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONT TO SPREAD
E OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DIMINISH INLAND AND WILL
DROP MOST OF THE WIND ADVISORIES EXCEPT FOR MAINLAND DARE AND
MAINLAND HYDE. WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG FROM EASTERN CARTERET TO
OUTER BANKS SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 30 DEEP INLAND LATE AND COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY ICY DEVELOP BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD WILL BE AS
WINDS WILL LIKELY DRY A LOT OF THE ROADS BEFORE TEMPS DROP TO
FREEZING.

NO CHANGES TO CSTL FLOOD HEADLINES. WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH OVER
AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH WIND DIR EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS WATER LEVELS SHLD PEAK OVER SOUND
SIDE OF OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA IN THE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SEEN AND LIMITED MOISTURE. KEPT POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACRS WRN SXNS. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE LWR
AND MID 50S INLAND AND AROUND 50 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MON INTO TUE AS AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A
SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SAT
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS BUT AGAIN ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

HIGHS MOST DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT EVEN COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY WHEN POTENTIAL
HIGHS COULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS REST OF NIGHT AS
LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM
W-NW WITH ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT. SCT SHRA EXPECTED BUT CIGS ABOVE
3K FT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH BY 10Z.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...STORM FORCE LOW APPROX 225 MILES E-SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 35 KT PER STLT TRACKING. WINDS
DIMINISHING ACROSS WATERS AND DROPPED STORM WARNING TO GALE FOR
PAMLICO SOUND. KEPT STORM WARNING FOR OUTER WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER WRN AREAS SO
WILL LOWER GALES TO SCA FOR WRN RIVERS. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ALONG
IMD CST/CSTL WTRS SO GALE/STORM WARNINGS CONT. WINDS SHLD CONT TO
GRAD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN VERY ROUGH ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND
20 FT OUTER WTRS.

PREV DISC...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS OF EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
64 KT ACROSS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS THE LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTN...AND WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 20-24 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. NW WINDS 15-25 KT EARLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
BY AFTN. SEAS 8-14 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
SUBSIDE TO 6-10 FT IN THE AFTN. SEAS 5-9 FT ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT IN THE AFTN.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR
HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR WIND AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS
AND ADJACENT RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WATER LVLS LIKELY HAVE PEAKED OR ARE PEAKING
FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH INTENSE WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS THE COASTAL FLOODING
SHLD PEAK ON SOUNDSIDE OF OBX WITH WATER LVLS 3 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH
AS 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE HUGE WAVES ON THE OCEAN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
OCEAN OVERWASH ALONG THE NORTHERN BEACHES ESPCLY DURING NEXT HIGH
TIDE AROUND 7 AM.

PREV DISC...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF THE NC
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NE TO NW
WINDS, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND
BASIN THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FROM AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY
(INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS
ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. CRAVEN COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE WATER LEVEL RISES 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEREFORE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT HERE.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SHORE BREAK
IN EXCESS OF 10 FT COMBINED WITH WAVE RUNUP IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND AREAS OF OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ047-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ093-094.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...RF/JME/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/JME/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 080639
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...STORM FORCE LOW APPROX 225 MILES E-SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 40 MPH PER STLT TRACKING...WITH WIND
AND RAIN CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE OVER ERN NC. RAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TO DIMINISH ALONG OBX AND EXTENDED LIKELY POPS THERE A FEW MORE
HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR WARMER OBS INLAND. LAMP GDNC
STILL INDICATING TEMPS DROPPING TO LOWER 30S NEAR 6-7 AM...THUS
KEPT MIN TEMP FCST AS IS. NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BUT WILL LIKELY LOWER AT 4 AM.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM...INTENSE LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE E AT A DECENT CLIP. RAIN IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING/ENDING INLAND AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONT TO SPREAD
E OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DIMINISH INLAND AND WILL
DROP MOST OF THE WIND ADVISORIES EXCEPT FOR MAINLAND DARE AND
MAINLAND HYDE. WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG FROM EASTERN CARTERET TO
OUTER BANKS SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 30 DEEP INLAND LATE AND COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY ICY DEVELOP BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD WILL BE AS
WINDS WILL LIKELY DRY A LOT OF THE ROADS BEFORE TEMPS DROP TO
FREEZING.

NO CHANGES TO CSTL FLOOD HEADLINES. WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH OVER
AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH WIND DIR EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS WATER LEVELS SHLD PEAK OVER SOUND
SIDE OF OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA IN THE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SEEN AND LIMITED MOISTURE. KEPT POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACRS WRN SXNS. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE LWR
AND MID 50S INLAND AND AROUND 50 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MON INTO TUE AS AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A
SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SAT
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS BUT AGAIN ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

HIGHS MOST DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT EVEN COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY WHEN POTENTIAL
HIGHS COULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TAF PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS REST OF NIGHT AS
LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM
W-NW WITH ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT. SCT SHRA EXPECTED BUT CIGS ABOVE
3K FT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH BY 10Z.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...STORM FORCE LOW APPROX 225 MILES E-SE OF
CAPE HATTERAS MOVING E-NE AT 35 KT PER STLT TRACKING. WINDS
DIMINISHING ACROSS WATERS AND DROPPED STORM WARNING TO GALE FOR
PAMLICO SOUND. KEPT STORM WARNING FOR OUTER WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER WRN AREAS SO
WILL LOWER GALES TO SCA FOR WRN RIVERS. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ALONG
IMD CST/CSTL WTRS SO GALE/STORM WARNINGS CONT. WINDS SHLD CONT TO
GRAD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN VERY ROUGH ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND
20 FT OUTER WTRS.

PREV DISC...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS OF EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
64 KT ACROSS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS THE LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTN...AND WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 20-24 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. NW WINDS 15-25 KT EARLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
BY AFTN. SEAS 8-14 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
SUBSIDE TO 6-10 FT IN THE AFTN. SEAS 5-9 FT ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT IN THE AFTN.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR
HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR WIND AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS
AND ADJACENT RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WATER LVLS LIKELY HAVE PEAKED OR ARE PEAKING
FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH INTENSE WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS THE COASTAL FLOODING
SHLD PEAK ON SOUNDSIDE OF OBX WITH WATER LVLS 3 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH
AS 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE HUGE WAVES ON THE OCEAN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
OCEAN OVERWASH ALONG THE NORTHERN BEACHES ESPCLY DURING NEXT HIGH
TIDE AROUND 7 AM.

PREV DISC...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF THE NC
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NE TO NW
WINDS, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND
BASIN THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FROM AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY
(INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS
ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. CRAVEN COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE WATER LEVEL RISES 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEREFORE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT HERE.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SHORE BREAK
IN EXCESS OF 10 FT COMBINED WITH WAVE RUNUP IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND AREAS OF OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ047-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-
     104.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ093-094.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...RF/JME/JBM
MARINE...JAC/RF/JME/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KILM 080612
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
112 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AND WIND
ADVISORY A BIT EARLY DUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. RAIN
HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PENDER COUNTY. WINDS HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED AND ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A WIDE-
SPREAD THREAT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. EXPECT MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 35
DEGREES...MILDEST AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZ LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POWERFUL OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE NE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PULL TO THE NE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. THE GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE CLOUD DECKS WILL
TRANSITION TO WNW TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KT WITH NO GUSTS ONCE SKIES
CLEAR. A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROF MIDDAY TODAY...AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
VORT WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
RESULT IN A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW PRIOR
TO THE CFP MONDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT
TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE IN
QUESTION...MEANING WILL IT BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE SFC OR
JUST PLAIN RAIN. FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING...STRONG CAA WILL
ENSUE UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...DUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING IN FAVOR OF A GALE WARNING...IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST. MARINE CONDITIONS DO REMAIN DANGEROUS
HOWEVER...AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE GALE WARNING WILL ALSO BE PULLED EARLIER IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 080550
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE
FEAR LIFTING EAST-NE. WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEPART THAN
EXPECTED...THIS MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE. SLOWER CLEARING WILL
AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING
FREEZING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS
ADDITIONAL TIME WILL ALSO ALLOW ADDITIONAL DRYING ON AREA ROADWAYS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. MIN TEMPS BY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 WEST TO
THE LOWER 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI
BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 080550
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE
FEAR LIFTING EAST-NE. WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEPART THAN
EXPECTED...THIS MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE. SLOWER CLEARING WILL
AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING
FREEZING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS
ADDITIONAL TIME WILL ALSO ALLOW ADDITIONAL DRYING ON AREA ROADWAYS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. MIN TEMPS BY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 WEST TO
THE LOWER 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI
BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 080550
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE
FEAR LIFTING EAST-NE. WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEPART THAN
EXPECTED...THIS MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE. SLOWER CLEARING WILL
AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING
FREEZING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS
ADDITIONAL TIME WILL ALSO ALLOW ADDITIONAL DRYING ON AREA ROADWAYS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. MIN TEMPS BY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 WEST TO
THE LOWER 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI
BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 080550
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE
FEAR LIFTING EAST-NE. WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEPART THAN
EXPECTED...THIS MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE. SLOWER CLEARING WILL
AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING
FREEZING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS
ADDITIONAL TIME WILL ALSO ALLOW ADDITIONAL DRYING ON AREA ROADWAYS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. MIN TEMPS BY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 WEST TO
THE LOWER 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI
BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 080550
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE
FEAR LIFTING EAST-NE. WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEPART THAN
EXPECTED...THIS MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE. SLOWER CLEARING WILL
AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING
FREEZING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS
ADDITIONAL TIME WILL ALSO ALLOW ADDITIONAL DRYING ON AREA ROADWAYS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. MIN TEMPS BY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 WEST TO
THE LOWER 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI
BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 080303
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE
FEAR LIFTING EAST-NE. WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEPART THAN
EXPECTED...THIS MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE. SLOWER CLEARING WILL
AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING
FREEZING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS
ADDITIONAL TIME WILL ALSO ALLOW ADDITIONAL DRYING ON AREA ROADWAYS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. MIN TEMPS BY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 WEST TO
THE LOWER 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 638 PM SUNDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF I-95...AND THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS THE REST OF THIS EVENING. IN
FACT...AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
NC INCLUDING ALL OF OUR 5 TAF SITES. THE ONLY OTHER LINGERING ISSUE
THIS EVENING IS THE GUSTY N WINDS THAT ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM KMEB-KHNZ...WHERE GUSTS AOA 18KT REMAIN. LOOK FOR THESE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS BY 08/07Z. OTHERWISE
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...WINDS ARE ALREADY BELOW 12KT AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW...LOOK FOR SW WINDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EACH
DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...RAH/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 080303
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SFC LOW EAST OF CAPE
FEAR LIFTING EAST-NE. WHILE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEPART THAN
EXPECTED...THIS MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE. SLOWER CLEARING WILL
AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP LONGER...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING
FREEZING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS
ADDITIONAL TIME WILL ALSO ALLOW ADDITIONAL DRYING ON AREA ROADWAYS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF
AN ISSUE. MIN TEMPS BY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 WEST TO
THE LOWER 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 638 PM SUNDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF I-95...AND THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS THE REST OF THIS EVENING. IN
FACT...AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
NC INCLUDING ALL OF OUR 5 TAF SITES. THE ONLY OTHER LINGERING ISSUE
THIS EVENING IS THE GUSTY N WINDS THAT ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM KMEB-KHNZ...WHERE GUSTS AOA 18KT REMAIN. LOOK FOR THESE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS BY 08/07Z. OTHERWISE
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...WINDS ARE ALREADY BELOW 12KT AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW...LOOK FOR SW WINDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EACH
DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...RAH/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 080254
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM...INTENSE LOW PRES SPINNING SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE E AT A DECENT CLIP. RAIN IS RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING/ENDING INLAND AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONT TO SPREAD
E OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DIMINISH INLAND AND WILL
DROP MOST OF THE WIND ADVISORIES EXCEPT FOR MAINLAND DARE AND
MAINLAND HYDE. WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG FROM EASTERN CARTERET TO
OUTER BANKS SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 30 DEEP INLAND LATE AND COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY ICY DEVELOP BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD WILL BE AS WINDS
WILL LIKELY DRY A LOT OF THE ROADS BEFORE TEMPS DROP TO FREEZING.

NO CHANGES TO CSTL FLOOD HEADLINES. WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH OVER
AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH WIND DIR EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS WATER LEVELS SHLD PEAK OVER SOUND
SIDE OF OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA IN THE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SEEN AND LIMITED MOISTURE. KEPT POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACRS WRN SXNS. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE LWR
AND MID 50S INLAND AND AROUND 50 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MON INTO TUE AS AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A
SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SAT
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS BUT AGAIN ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

HIGHS MOST DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT EVEN COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY WHEN POTENTIAL
HIGHS COULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...MIX OF VFR/MVFR NEXT CPL HRS WITH SOME RAIN
POSS MIXED WITH SLEET INLAND. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCT OUT AFT 06Z
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE CURRENT GUSTY NNW WINDS SHLD GRAD
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
VFR EXPECTED MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE WITH SOME SCT SHRA BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 3K FEET.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER WRN AREAS SO
WILL LOWER GALES TO SCA FOR WRN RIVERS. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ALONG
IMD CST/CSTL WTRS SO GALE/STORM WARNINGS CONT. WINDS SHLD CONT TO
GRAD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN VERY ROUGH ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND
20 FT OUTER WTRS.

PREV DISC...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS OF EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
64 KT ACROSS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS THE LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTN...AND WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 20-24 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. NW WINDS 15-25 KT EARLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
BY AFTN. SEAS 8-14 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
SUBSIDE TO 6-10 FT IN THE AFTN. SEAS 5-9 FT ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT IN THE AFTN.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR
HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR WIND AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS
AND ADJACENT RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 940 PM SUN...WATER LVLS LIKELY HAVE PEAKED OR ARE PEAKING
FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND. WITH INTENSE WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NW NEXT FEW HOURS THE COASTAL FLOODING
SHLD PEAK ON SOUNDSIDE OF OBX WITH WATER LVLS 3 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH
AS 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE HUGE WAVES ON THE OCEAN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
OCEAN OVERWASH ALONG THE NORTHERN BEACHES ESPCLY DURING NEXT HIGH
TIDE AROUND 7 AM.

PREV DISC...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF THE NC
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NE TO NW
WINDS, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND
BASIN THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FROM AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY
(INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS
ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. CRAVEN COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE WATER LEVEL RISES 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEREFORE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT HERE.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SHORE BREAK
IN EXCESS OF 10 FT COMBINED WITH WAVE RUNUP IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND AREAS OF OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ047-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ093-094.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...RF/JME
MARINE...JAC/RF/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KILM 080238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AND WIND
ADVISORY A BIT EARLY DUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. RAIN
HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PENDER COUNTY. WINDS HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED AND ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A WIDE-
SPREAD THREAT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. EXPECT MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 35
DEGREES...MILDEST AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...DUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING IN FAVOR OF A GALE WARNING...IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST. MARINE CONDITIONS DO REMAIN DANGEROUS
HOWEVER...AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE GALE WARNING WILL ALSO BE PULLED EARLIER IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 080238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AND WIND
ADVISORY A BIT EARLY DUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. RAIN
HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PENDER COUNTY. WINDS HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED AND ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A WIDE-
SPREAD THREAT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. EXPECT MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 35
DEGREES...MILDEST AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...DUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING IN FAVOR OF A GALE WARNING...IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST. MARINE CONDITIONS DO REMAIN DANGEROUS
HOWEVER...AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE GALE WARNING WILL ALSO BE PULLED EARLIER IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 080238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AND WIND
ADVISORY A BIT EARLY DUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. RAIN
HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PENDER COUNTY. WINDS HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED AND ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A WIDE-
SPREAD THREAT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. EXPECT MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 35
DEGREES...MILDEST AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...DUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING IN FAVOR OF A GALE WARNING...IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST. MARINE CONDITIONS DO REMAIN DANGEROUS
HOWEVER...AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE GALE WARNING WILL ALSO BE PULLED EARLIER IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 080238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AND WIND
ADVISORY A BIT EARLY DUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. RAIN
HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PENDER COUNTY. WINDS HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED AND ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A WIDE-
SPREAD THREAT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. EXPECT MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 35
DEGREES...MILDEST AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...DUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING IN FAVOR OF A GALE WARNING...IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST. MARINE CONDITIONS DO REMAIN DANGEROUS
HOWEVER...AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE GALE WARNING WILL ALSO BE PULLED EARLIER IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 080238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
938 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AND WIND
ADVISORY A BIT EARLY DUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. RAIN
HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PENDER COUNTY. WINDS HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED AND ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A WIDE-
SPREAD THREAT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. EXPECT MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 35
DEGREES...MILDEST AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...DUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING IN FAVOR OF A GALE WARNING...IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST. MARINE CONDITIONS DO REMAIN DANGEROUS
HOWEVER...AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE GALE WARNING WILL ALSO BE PULLED EARLIER IN FAVOR OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BY DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KMHX 072340
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH INTENSE LOW PRES OFFSHORE
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. ADDED MORE SLEET
MIXED WITH RAIN INLAND PER REPORTS WHERE SEEMS TO MATCH ENHANCED
BAND ON RDR. TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE
EVENING WHICH SHLD LIMIT ANY IMPACTS FROM THE SLEET. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E LATER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. TEMPS COULD DROP TO
AROUND FREEZING LATE INLAND AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHY ICY DEVELOP
BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD WILL BE AS WINDS WILL LIKELY DRY A LOT OF
THE ROADS.

NO CHANGES TO WIND/CSTL FLOOD HEADLINES. HAVE HAD WIND GUST TO 70
MPH AT CEDAR ISLAND WITH WATER LEVELS UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FOR DOWN EAST CARTERET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA IN THE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SEEN AND LIMITED MOISTURE. KEPT POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACRS WRN SXNS. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE LWR
AND MID 50S INLAND AND AROUND 50 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MON INTO TUE AS AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A
SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SAT
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS BUT AGAIN ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

HIGHS MOST DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT EVEN COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY WHEN POTENTIAL
HIGHS COULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...MIX OF VFR/MVFR NEXT CPL HRS WITH SOME RAIN
POSS MIXED WITH SLEET INLAND. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCT OUT AFT 06Z
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE CURRENT GUSTY NNW WINDS SHLD GRAD
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
VFR EXPECTED MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE BUT EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 3K FEET.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...NO SIGNIF CHANGES WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS
EVENING WITH INTENSE/DEEPENING LOW PRES SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT. STORM
WARNING CONTS FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND.
GALES ELSEWHERE. MANY BUOYS CURRENTLY GUSTING AOA 50 KTS.

POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE WATERS OF EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR HURRICANE FORCE 64 KT ACROSS
THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTN AS THE LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTN...AND WILL PEAK THIS EVENING AS
HIGH AS 20-24 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS RAPIDLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO
THE NE. NW WINDS 15-25 KT EARLY DIMINISH  TO 10-15 KT BY AFTN.
SEAS 8-14 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS SUBSIDE TO 6-10
FT IN THE AFTN. SEAS 5-9 FT ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT IN THE AFTN.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR
HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR WIND AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS
AND ADJACENT RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...ADDED PAMLICO COUNTY TO CSTL FLOOD ADVRY AS
GAGE AT ORIENTAL WAS RISING WITH STRONG N WINDS. AS WINDS BECOME
MORE NW LATER HIGHEST WTR LVLS SHLD BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD
OBX.

PREV DISC...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF THE NC
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NE TO NW
WINDS, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND
BASIN THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FROM AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY
(INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS
ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. CRAVEN COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE WATER LEVEL RISES 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEREFORE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT HERE.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SHORE BREAK
IN EXCESS OF 10 FT COMBINED WITH WAVE RUNUP IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND AREAS OF OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ046-047-080-081-
     092>094-098.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ093-094.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JAC/RF/LEP
MARINE...JAC/RF/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 072340
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH INTENSE LOW PRES OFFSHORE
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. ADDED MORE SLEET
MIXED WITH RAIN INLAND PER REPORTS WHERE SEEMS TO MATCH ENHANCED
BAND ON RDR. TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE
EVENING WHICH SHLD LIMIT ANY IMPACTS FROM THE SLEET. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E LATER TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. TEMPS COULD DROP TO
AROUND FREEZING LATE INLAND AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHY ICY DEVELOP
BUT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD WILL BE AS WINDS WILL LIKELY DRY A LOT OF
THE ROADS.

NO CHANGES TO WIND/CSTL FLOOD HEADLINES. HAVE HAD WIND GUST TO 70
MPH AT CEDAR ISLAND WITH WATER LEVELS UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FOR DOWN EAST CARTERET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA IN THE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SEEN AND LIMITED MOISTURE. KEPT POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACRS WRN SXNS. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE LWR
AND MID 50S INLAND AND AROUND 50 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LEADING TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TRY TO ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC CUT OFF
AS SOURCES FOR MOISTURE INFLOW WHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES MOSTLY GETS WRUNG OUT
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MON INTO TUE AS AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING WHEN CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TO BE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A
SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SAT
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS BUT AGAIN ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

HIGHS MOST DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT EVEN COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY WHEN POTENTIAL
HIGHS COULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...MIX OF VFR/MVFR NEXT CPL HRS WITH SOME RAIN
POSS MIXED WITH SLEET INLAND. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCT OUT AFT 06Z
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THE CURRENT GUSTY NNW WINDS SHLD GRAD
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
VFR EXPECTED MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE BUT EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 3K FEET.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...NO SIGNIF CHANGES WITH WINDS PEAKING THIS
EVENING WITH INTENSE/DEEPENING LOW PRES SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT. STORM
WARNING CONTS FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND.
GALES ELSEWHERE. MANY BUOYS CURRENTLY GUSTING AOA 50 KTS.

POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE WATERS OF EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR HURRICANE FORCE 64 KT ACROSS
THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTN AS THE LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTN...AND WILL PEAK THIS EVENING AS
HIGH AS 20-24 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS RAPIDLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO
THE NE. NW WINDS 15-25 KT EARLY DIMINISH  TO 10-15 KT BY AFTN.
SEAS 8-14 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS SUBSIDE TO 6-10
FT IN THE AFTN. SEAS 5-9 FT ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY
SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT IN THE AFTN.

LONG TERM /MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 220 PM SUN...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
15 TO 25 KT PREDOMINATING AND MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR
HIGHER. THUS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUED FOR WIND AND/OR SEAS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON THE SOUNDS
AND ADJACENT RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...ADDED PAMLICO COUNTY TO CSTL FLOOD ADVRY AS
GAGE AT ORIENTAL WAS RISING WITH STRONG N WINDS. AS WINDS BECOME
MORE NW LATER HIGHEST WTR LVLS SHLD BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD
OBX.

PREV DISC...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF OF THE NC
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NE TO NW
WINDS, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND
BASIN THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FROM AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY
(INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF HATTERAS
ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. CRAVEN COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE WATER LEVEL RISES 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEREFORE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT HERE.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SHORE BREAK
IN EXCESS OF 10 FT COMBINED WITH WAVE RUNUP IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND AREAS OF OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ046-047-080-081-
     092>094-098.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ093-094.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JAC/RF/LEP
MARINE...JAC/RF/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KRAH 072338
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 PM SUNDAY...

MSAS SHOWS A SUB-1000MB (~994MB) SURFACE LOW EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER DEEPENING TO NEAR 980MB EAST OF THE
OBX FORECAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST.  PRECIP RATES...A PERIOD MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET (AT TIMES ALL SLEET)...HAVE BEGUN TO
DECREASE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL LAIN NOW REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN. WHILE A VERY BRIEF BURST OF SLEET IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND EASTERN WILSON COUNTIES...THREAT/BULK OF WINTRY
MIX PRECIP HAS ENDED.  NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...IN
ADDITION TO THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH REPORTS ON SOME AREAS THAT IS.
SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WX ADVISORY BEFORE THE 6 PM EXPIRATION.

WE`LL SEE FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 30S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
THERE MAY BE SOME BLACK ICE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IF ROADS DO NOT DRY
OUT PRIOR TO THE CLEARING...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE
MONITORED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 638 PM SUNDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF I-95...AND THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS THE REST OF THIS EVENING. IN
FACT...AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
NC INCLUDING ALL OF OUR 5 TAF SITES. THE ONLY OTHER LINGERING ISSUE
THIS EVENING IS THE GUSTY N WINDS THAT ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM KMEB-KHNZ...WHERE GUSTS AOA 18KT REMAIN. LOOK FOR THESE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS BY 08/07Z. OTHERWISE
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...WINDS ARE ALREADY BELOW 12KT AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW...LOOK FOR SW WINDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EACH
DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...RAH/SMITH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 072338
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 PM SUNDAY...

MSAS SHOWS A SUB-1000MB (~994MB) SURFACE LOW EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER DEEPENING TO NEAR 980MB EAST OF THE
OBX FORECAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST.  PRECIP RATES...A PERIOD MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET (AT TIMES ALL SLEET)...HAVE BEGUN TO
DECREASE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL LAIN NOW REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN. WHILE A VERY BRIEF BURST OF SLEET IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND EASTERN WILSON COUNTIES...THREAT/BULK OF WINTRY
MIX PRECIP HAS ENDED.  NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...IN
ADDITION TO THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH REPORTS ON SOME AREAS THAT IS.
SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WX ADVISORY BEFORE THE 6 PM EXPIRATION.

WE`LL SEE FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 30S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
THERE MAY BE SOME BLACK ICE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IF ROADS DO NOT DRY
OUT PRIOR TO THE CLEARING...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE
MONITORED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 638 PM SUNDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF I-95...AND THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS THE REST OF THIS EVENING. IN
FACT...AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
NC INCLUDING ALL OF OUR 5 TAF SITES. THE ONLY OTHER LINGERING ISSUE
THIS EVENING IS THE GUSTY N WINDS THAT ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM KMEB-KHNZ...WHERE GUSTS AOA 18KT REMAIN. LOOK FOR THESE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS BY 08/07Z. OTHERWISE
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...WINDS ARE ALREADY BELOW 12KT AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW...LOOK FOR SW WINDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EACH
DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...RAH/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 072338
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 PM SUNDAY...

MSAS SHOWS A SUB-1000MB (~994MB) SURFACE LOW EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER DEEPENING TO NEAR 980MB EAST OF THE
OBX FORECAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST.  PRECIP RATES...A PERIOD MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET (AT TIMES ALL SLEET)...HAVE BEGUN TO
DECREASE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL LAIN NOW REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN. WHILE A VERY BRIEF BURST OF SLEET IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND EASTERN WILSON COUNTIES...THREAT/BULK OF WINTRY
MIX PRECIP HAS ENDED.  NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...IN
ADDITION TO THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH REPORTS ON SOME AREAS THAT IS.
SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WX ADVISORY BEFORE THE 6 PM EXPIRATION.

WE`LL SEE FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 30S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
THERE MAY BE SOME BLACK ICE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IF ROADS DO NOT DRY
OUT PRIOR TO THE CLEARING...AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE
MONITORED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

THERE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND ITS
KICKER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAVE TO A
STRONG SHOT OF DCVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SOUTHERLY
WIND...GUSTING TO 20-25KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMING AND MOISTEN...YIELDING STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
LOOSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
THIS ALL LIQUID DESPITE THE LAPSE RATES AND A PATTERN THAT OFTEN
FAVORS SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN THAT
CHANGES TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST VA (PER A LOOSE MODEL CONSENSUS).
THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SECOND BAND IS LOW AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT
OR LOW END CHANCE VALUES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEAST.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AND COLD ADVECTION
STARTS TO KICK IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...

COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE
OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT.

THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION
(NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST...
ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/
FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE.

OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU
AND AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 638 PM SUNDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF I-95...AND THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIGS THE REST OF THIS EVENING. IN
FACT...AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
NC INCLUDING ALL OF OUR 5 TAF SITES. THE ONLY OTHER LINGERING ISSUE
THIS EVENING IS THE GUSTY N WINDS THAT ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM KMEB-KHNZ...WHERE GUSTS AOA 18KT REMAIN. LOOK FOR THESE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS BY 08/07Z. OTHERWISE
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...WINDS ARE ALREADY BELOW 12KT AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW...LOOK FOR SW WINDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AFTER THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY PASSES BY...THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EACH
DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...RAH/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KILM 072337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...HAVE PARED BACK THE WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD
WATCH BASED ON PROGRESSION OF THE STORM. RAIN IS NOW CONFINED TO
THE CAPE FEAR REGION FROM BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
NORTHWARD. RAIN SHIELD WAS EARLIER MOVING RATHER SWIFTLY
EASTWARD...BUT HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW SCANS. WINDS INLAND
HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND ARE ALSO ON THE DECLINE ELSEWHERE.
FOR NOW ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY
ON TIME AT 10 PM. FROZEN PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR WET SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT AS NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WE DO NOT SEE THIS AS A THREAT. BIGGEST
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WHERE RAINS ARE STILL FALLING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

POWERFUL SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
PRESENTLY. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRACE SE NC AND NE SC WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO EVENING BEFORE PULLING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
POSTED...AS THE PUBLIC IMPACT OF POTENTIALLY DOWNED TREES REMAINS
VIABLE. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH AS WELL...WITH A FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF SE NC. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND RELATIVELY MILDER GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPS...SNOW
ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THUS NO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS PLANNED. COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO PULL AWAY PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...MINIMUMS 30-35 DEGREES MILDEST AT THE COAST. INTO EARLY
MONDAY WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND BEYOND. STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM...AFTER WHICH A GALE WARNING MAY BE HOISTED DEPENDING
UPON CONDITIONS. LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12
FEET...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 50 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A COASTAL STORM OFF
CAPE FEAR TRACKS NE...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DOWNGRADED TO A GALE OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS
OF 7-13 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FEET BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH WINDS EASING TO 15-25 KT FROM THE W. WIND DRIVEN
RAIN THIS EVENING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. FRYING PAN SHOALS REPORTED
A A PEAK GUST EARLIER TO 52 KT...MASONBORO BUOY 5NM OFF OF
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 52 KT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ105>110.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 072337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...HAVE PARED BACK THE WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD
WATCH BASED ON PROGRESSION OF THE STORM. RAIN IS NOW CONFINED TO
THE CAPE FEAR REGION FROM BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
NORTHWARD. RAIN SHIELD WAS EARLIER MOVING RATHER SWIFTLY
EASTWARD...BUT HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW SCANS. WINDS INLAND
HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND ARE ALSO ON THE DECLINE ELSEWHERE.
FOR NOW ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY
ON TIME AT 10 PM. FROZEN PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR WET SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT AS NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WE DO NOT SEE THIS AS A THREAT. BIGGEST
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WHERE RAINS ARE STILL FALLING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

POWERFUL SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
PRESENTLY. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRACE SE NC AND NE SC WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO EVENING BEFORE PULLING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
POSTED...AS THE PUBLIC IMPACT OF POTENTIALLY DOWNED TREES REMAINS
VIABLE. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH AS WELL...WITH A FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF SE NC. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND RELATIVELY MILDER GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPS...SNOW
ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THUS NO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS PLANNED. COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO PULL AWAY PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...MINIMUMS 30-35 DEGREES MILDEST AT THE COAST. INTO EARLY
MONDAY WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND BEYOND. STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM...AFTER WHICH A GALE WARNING MAY BE HOISTED DEPENDING
UPON CONDITIONS. LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12
FEET...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 50 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A COASTAL STORM OFF
CAPE FEAR TRACKS NE...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DOWNGRADED TO A GALE OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS
OF 7-13 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FEET BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH WINDS EASING TO 15-25 KT FROM THE W. WIND DRIVEN
RAIN THIS EVENING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. FRYING PAN SHOALS REPORTED
A A PEAK GUST EARLIER TO 52 KT...MASONBORO BUOY 5NM OFF OF
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 52 KT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ105>110.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 072337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...HAVE PARED BACK THE WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD
WATCH BASED ON PROGRESSION OF THE STORM. RAIN IS NOW CONFINED TO
THE CAPE FEAR REGION FROM BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
NORTHWARD. RAIN SHIELD WAS EARLIER MOVING RATHER SWIFTLY
EASTWARD...BUT HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW SCANS. WINDS INLAND
HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND ARE ALSO ON THE DECLINE ELSEWHERE.
FOR NOW ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY
ON TIME AT 10 PM. FROZEN PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR WET SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT AS NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WE DO NOT SEE THIS AS A THREAT. BIGGEST
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WHERE RAINS ARE STILL FALLING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

POWERFUL SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
PRESENTLY. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRACE SE NC AND NE SC WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO EVENING BEFORE PULLING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
POSTED...AS THE PUBLIC IMPACT OF POTENTIALLY DOWNED TREES REMAINS
VIABLE. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH AS WELL...WITH A FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF SE NC. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND RELATIVELY MILDER GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPS...SNOW
ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THUS NO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS PLANNED. COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO PULL AWAY PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...MINIMUMS 30-35 DEGREES MILDEST AT THE COAST. INTO EARLY
MONDAY WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND BEYOND. STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM...AFTER WHICH A GALE WARNING MAY BE HOISTED DEPENDING
UPON CONDITIONS. LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12
FEET...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 50 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A COASTAL STORM OFF
CAPE FEAR TRACKS NE...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DOWNGRADED TO A GALE OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS
OF 7-13 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FEET BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH WINDS EASING TO 15-25 KT FROM THE W. WIND DRIVEN
RAIN THIS EVENING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. FRYING PAN SHOALS REPORTED
A A PEAK GUST EARLIER TO 52 KT...MASONBORO BUOY 5NM OFF OF
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 52 KT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ105>110.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KILM 072304
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
603 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...POWERFUL SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR PRESENTLY. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRACE SE NC
AND NE SC WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO EVENING BEFORE PULLING
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY
PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN POSTED...AS THE PUBLIC IMPACT OF POTENTIALLY DOWNED
TREES REMAINS VIABLE. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WARRANTS CONTINUATION
OF THE FLOOD WATCH AS WELL...WITH A FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SE NC. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND RELATIVELY MILDER GROUND AND SURFACE
TEMPS...SNOW ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THUS NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED. COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL
ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO
PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...MINIMUMS 30-35 DEGREES MILDEST AT
THE COAST. INTO EARLY MONDAY WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND
THEREFORE MAY BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME
DECENT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
ANY PCP. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH
LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR
ABOVE THE SFC BUT FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD
FRONT. OVERALL WOULD NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF
SNOW MIXING IN BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL.
PCP WATER VALUES ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP
FORECAST ALL RAIN FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS
WILL REACH UP INTO THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A
COASTAL STORM OFF CAPE FEAR TRACKS NE...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
EXTEND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGRADED TO A GALE OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS OF 7-13 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5
TO 8 FEET BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH WINDS EASING TO 15-25 KT
FROM THE W. WIND DRIVEN RAIN THIS EVENING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. FRYING
PAN SHOALS REPORTED A A PEAK GUST EARLIER TO 52 KT...MASONBORO
BUOY 5NM OFF OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 52 KT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ053>056.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ105>110.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KILM 072304
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
603 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...POWERFUL SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR PRESENTLY. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRACE SE NC
AND NE SC WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO EVENING BEFORE PULLING
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY
PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN POSTED...AS THE PUBLIC IMPACT OF POTENTIALLY DOWNED
TREES REMAINS VIABLE. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WARRANTS CONTINUATION
OF THE FLOOD WATCH AS WELL...WITH A FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SE NC. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND RELATIVELY MILDER GROUND AND SURFACE
TEMPS...SNOW ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THUS NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED. COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL
ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO
PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...MINIMUMS 30-35 DEGREES MILDEST AT
THE COAST. INTO EARLY MONDAY WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND
THEREFORE MAY BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME
DECENT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
ANY PCP. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH
LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR
ABOVE THE SFC BUT FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD
FRONT. OVERALL WOULD NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF
SNOW MIXING IN BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL.
PCP WATER VALUES ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP
FORECAST ALL RAIN FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS
WILL REACH UP INTO THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A
COASTAL STORM OFF CAPE FEAR TRACKS NE...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
EXTEND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGRADED TO A GALE OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS OF 7-13 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5
TO 8 FEET BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH WINDS EASING TO 15-25 KT
FROM THE W. WIND DRIVEN RAIN THIS EVENING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. FRYING
PAN SHOALS REPORTED A A PEAK GUST EARLIER TO 52 KT...MASONBORO
BUOY 5NM OFF OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 52 KT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ053>056.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ105>110.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 072304
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
603 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...POWERFUL SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR PRESENTLY. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRACE SE NC
AND NE SC WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO EVENING BEFORE PULLING
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY
PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN POSTED...AS THE PUBLIC IMPACT OF POTENTIALLY DOWNED
TREES REMAINS VIABLE. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WARRANTS CONTINUATION
OF THE FLOOD WATCH AS WELL...WITH A FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SE NC. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND RELATIVELY MILDER GROUND AND SURFACE
TEMPS...SNOW ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THUS NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED. COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL
ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO
PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...MINIMUMS 30-35 DEGREES MILDEST AT
THE COAST. INTO EARLY MONDAY WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND
THEREFORE MAY BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME
DECENT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
ANY PCP. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH
LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR
ABOVE THE SFC BUT FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD
FRONT. OVERALL WOULD NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF
SNOW MIXING IN BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL.
PCP WATER VALUES ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP
FORECAST ALL RAIN FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS
WILL REACH UP INTO THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A
COASTAL STORM OFF CAPE FEAR TRACKS NE...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
EXTEND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGRADED TO A GALE OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS OF 7-13 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5
TO 8 FEET BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH WINDS EASING TO 15-25 KT
FROM THE W. WIND DRIVEN RAIN THIS EVENING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO
1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. FRYING
PAN SHOALS REPORTED A A PEAK GUST EARLIER TO 52 KT...MASONBORO
BUOY 5NM OFF OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 52 KT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ053>056.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ105>110.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities