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000
FXUS62 KRAH 032336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
736 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA
TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS HAS PREVENTED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM REALIZING
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP ISOLATED
STORMS IN CHECK THROUGH 19Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICTS SOME THINNING OF THE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PARTIAL SUN MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 21Z-02Z AS A MID LEVEL S/W CROSSES
INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR STORMS FOR SOME ROTATION AS LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-
35KTS IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER. WITH NEAR SFC FLOW MAINLY SLY
AND 850MB SW...DECENT SFC-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PLAUSIBLE.
WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING...ENOUGH SHEAR MAY EXIST
FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64.

EXPECT BULK OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS MAY
SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...

POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR
WEST-NW WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS LIFTING NEWD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL PASS TO OUR WEST-NW. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE... GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...BETWEEN 22Z-
03Z. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND STRENGTH OF 30-40KTS WILL CREATE DECENT
SHEAR WITH STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THIS SUGGEST
BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION RATHER THAN SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE.
STILL COULD SEE A STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL (SIZE OF A QUARTER OR LESS) WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

PARTIAL-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE PROMINENT...HOLDING MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S.

SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS PROBABLE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER.  AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE N...SO WILL THE
SFC BOUNDARY...MOVING N INTO VA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY...BASICALLY AREAS N OF HWY
64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR...WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT WITH HIGH PWAT (>1.75") AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. MODELS SHOW
THAT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTWARD...WITH PERHAPS MOST OF OUR CWA
WEST OF I-95 REMAINING DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SUGGEST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ESP INVOF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR-CLIMO POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE TRIAD THIS HOUR WILL
LAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE WANING. A WEAKER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING KRDU FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
PROBABLY WONT REACH THE VICINITY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. AT THE
MOMENT KFAY AND KRWI ARE IN THE RELATIVE CLEAR WITH NO UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. TRIAD SITES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK. ALL OTHER SITES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS BE PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW. GUSTY
WINDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY ONLY REACH 15 KTS IN THE TRIAD AND
KRDU BUT KFAY AND KRWI COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20 KTS UP UNTIL SUNSET.

LONG TERM: LONG TERM MODELS SHOW THE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDING OVER
CENTRAL NC...INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...ELLIS


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000
FXUS62 KMHX 032326
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...SMATTERING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAIN
OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST WEAK SFC FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
THRU THE EVENING THEN ACTIVITY SHUD WANE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS GREATLY DIMINISHED AS THE BNDRY LAYER STABILIZES
THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN UPR 70S COAST AND
LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MORE SOLID LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP UNDER
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNRISE AS SW
WINDS PICK UP IN WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA



000
FXUS62 KMHX 032326
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...SMATTERING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAIN
OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST WEAK SFC FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
THRU THE EVENING THEN ACTIVITY SHUD WANE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS GREATLY DIMINISHED AS THE BNDRY LAYER STABILIZES
THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN UPR 70S COAST AND
LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MORE SOLID LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP UNDER
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNRISE AS SW
WINDS PICK UP IN WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 032033
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AREA AND UPSTREAM AND GOOD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING..THUS CONTINUING LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES. ISOLATED SVR PSBL
WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. INITIAL ACTIVITY FIRING ON
STALLED FRONT OVER N AND SEA BREEZE SRN INLAND SECTIONS...WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAINLY WITH SHRT WV. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT MAIN
THREAT OF ACTIVITY SPREADING TO COAST LATE EVENING...WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING W TO E OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN UPR 70S
COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 032033
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AREA AND UPSTREAM AND GOOD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING..THUS CONTINUING LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES. ISOLATED SVR PSBL
WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. INITIAL ACTIVITY FIRING ON
STALLED FRONT OVER N AND SEA BREEZE SRN INLAND SECTIONS...WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAINLY WITH SHRT WV. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT MAIN
THREAT OF ACTIVITY SPREADING TO COAST LATE EVENING...WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING W TO E OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN UPR 70S
COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 032033
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AREA AND UPSTREAM AND GOOD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING..THUS CONTINUING LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES. ISOLATED SVR PSBL
WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. INITIAL ACTIVITY FIRING ON
STALLED FRONT OVER N AND SEA BREEZE SRN INLAND SECTIONS...WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAINLY WITH SHRT WV. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT MAIN
THREAT OF ACTIVITY SPREADING TO COAST LATE EVENING...WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING W TO E OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN UPR 70S
COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 032033
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AREA AND UPSTREAM AND GOOD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING..THUS CONTINUING LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES. ISOLATED SVR PSBL
WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. INITIAL ACTIVITY FIRING ON
STALLED FRONT OVER N AND SEA BREEZE SRN INLAND SECTIONS...WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAINLY WITH SHRT WV. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT MAIN
THREAT OF ACTIVITY SPREADING TO COAST LATE EVENING...WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING W TO E OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN UPR 70S
COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031938
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA
TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS HAS PREVENTED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM REALIZING
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP ISOLATED
STORMS IN CHECK THROUGH 19Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICTS SOME THINNING OF THE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PARTIAL SUN MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 21Z-02Z AS A MID LEVEL S/W CROSSES
INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR STORMS FOR SOME ROTATION AS LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-
35KTS IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER. WITH NEAR SFC FLOW MAINLY SLY
AND 850MB SW...DECENT SFC-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PLAUSIBLE.
WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING...ENOUGH SHEAR MAY EXIST
FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64.

EXPECT BULK OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS MAY
SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...

POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR
WEST-NW WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS LIFTING NEWD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL PASS TO OUR WEST-NW. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE... GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...BETWEEN 22Z-
03Z. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND STRENGTH OF 30-40KTS WILL CREATE DECENT
SHEAR WITH STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THIS SUGGEST
BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION RATHER THAN SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE.
STILL COULD SEE A STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL (SIZE OF A QUARTER OR LESS) WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

PARTIAL-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE PROMINENT...HOLDING MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S.

SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS PROBABLE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER.  AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE N...SO WILL THE
SFC BOUNDARY...MOVING N INTO VA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY...BASICALLY AREAS N OF HWY
64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR...WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT WITH HIGH PWAT (>1.75") AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. MODELS SHOW
THAT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTWARD...WITH PERHAPS MOST OF OUR CWA
WEST OF I-95 REMAINING DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SUGGEST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ESP INVOF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR-CLIMO POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 031938
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA
TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS HAS PREVENTED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM REALIZING
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP ISOLATED
STORMS IN CHECK THROUGH 19Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICTS SOME THINNING OF THE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PARTIAL SUN MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 21Z-02Z AS A MID LEVEL S/W CROSSES
INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR STORMS FOR SOME ROTATION AS LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-
35KTS IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER. WITH NEAR SFC FLOW MAINLY SLY
AND 850MB SW...DECENT SFC-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PLAUSIBLE.
WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING...ENOUGH SHEAR MAY EXIST
FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64.

EXPECT BULK OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS MAY
SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...

POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR
WEST-NW WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS LIFTING NEWD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL PASS TO OUR WEST-NW. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE... GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...BETWEEN 22Z-
03Z. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND STRENGTH OF 30-40KTS WILL CREATE DECENT
SHEAR WITH STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THIS SUGGEST
BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION RATHER THAN SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE.
STILL COULD SEE A STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL (SIZE OF A QUARTER OR LESS) WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

PARTIAL-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE PROMINENT...HOLDING MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S.

SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS PROBABLE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER.  AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE N...SO WILL THE
SFC BOUNDARY...MOVING N INTO VA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY...BASICALLY AREAS N OF HWY
64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR...WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT WITH HIGH PWAT (>1.75") AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. MODELS SHOW
THAT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTWARD...WITH PERHAPS MOST OF OUR CWA
WEST OF I-95 REMAINING DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SUGGEST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ESP INVOF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR-CLIMO POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031938
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA
TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS HAS PREVENTED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM REALIZING
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP ISOLATED
STORMS IN CHECK THROUGH 19Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICTS SOME THINNING OF THE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PARTIAL SUN MAY BE
ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 21Z-02Z AS A MID LEVEL S/W CROSSES
INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR STORMS FOR SOME ROTATION AS LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-
35KTS IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER. WITH NEAR SFC FLOW MAINLY SLY
AND 850MB SW...DECENT SFC-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PLAUSIBLE.
WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING...ENOUGH SHEAR MAY EXIST
FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64.

EXPECT BULK OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS MAY
SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...

POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR
WEST-NW WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS LIFTING NEWD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL PASS TO OUR WEST-NW. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE... GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...BETWEEN 22Z-
03Z. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND STRENGTH OF 30-40KTS WILL CREATE DECENT
SHEAR WITH STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THIS SUGGEST
BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION RATHER THAN SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE.
STILL COULD SEE A STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL (SIZE OF A QUARTER OR LESS) WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

PARTIAL-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE PROMINENT...HOLDING MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S.

SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS PROBABLE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER.  AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE N...SO WILL THE
SFC BOUNDARY...MOVING N INTO VA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY...BASICALLY AREAS N OF HWY
64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR...WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT WITH HIGH PWAT (>1.75") AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. MODELS SHOW
THAT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTWARD...WITH PERHAPS MOST OF OUR CWA
WEST OF I-95 REMAINING DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SUGGEST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ESP INVOF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR-CLIMO POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...WSS


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 031857
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NOW IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING
FROM WIND DAMAGE...WHICH SPC RATES AT 15 PERCENT. TRENDS SHOW THAT
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW UNDERWAY IS ACTUALLY PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SUPPRESSED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND THIS HAS KEPT A DAMPER ON STRONG CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE DEVELOPING AND THAT MAY HELP POP
SOME STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON...BUT SO FAR
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY WEAK WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING AND NO
STRONG WINDS. A SEVERE WATCH AREA REMAINS TO OUR S AND SW AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE EXTENDED UP OUR
WAY...ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BROADLY CYCLONIC YET RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE USUAL
SUSPECTS WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER FACTOR
WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXACT
TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN IFFY
PROPOSITION...BUT A COMBINATION OF  GUIDANCE...AND WATER VAPOR AND
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS ONE SUCH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY A THIRD
ONE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HOT BUT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WKND.

EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THIS WKND...BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST
OVER THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...TO PRODUCE A HOT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH UPR 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
VERY DRY-MID LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EVEN
AS AFTN CU BUILDS...SO BUILDUP WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY SHALLOW.
THE SEA BREEZE...AND ESPECIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH...MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART FIREWORKS FESTIVITIES SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE CLEAR AND DRY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 70S WELL INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE TN
VLY...AND WHILE THIS WILL STAY MOSTLY WEST OF OUR AREA...SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER
PVA. THIS WILL CREATE MORE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER AFTN CONVECTION
CHANCES...ALONG WITH KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...WITH MOST
PLACES HOVERING 1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90. CONTINUING HEIGHT
FALLS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY PERSIST CONVECTION WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DECREASED COVERAGE...AND MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AROUND 70...SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW
WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN
TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z
AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING FROM THE PRESENT 10
TO 15 KTS TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR AMZ252-256 THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR THOSE WATERS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR AMZ250...WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THAT ZONE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
OUT FOR THE REMAINDER.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DIRECTION WILL VARY LITTLE...SPEEDS SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS...HIGHEST LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE 10-
15 KTS SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT WEAKER.
ADDITIONALLY...NEAR SHORE WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
SEA BREEZE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE BEFORE RETURNING TO A SW DIRECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A
SW WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK/JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...99/REK/JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 031857
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS NOW IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING
FROM WIND DAMAGE...WHICH SPC RATES AT 15 PERCENT. TRENDS SHOW THAT
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW UNDERWAY IS ACTUALLY PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SUPPRESSED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND THIS HAS KEPT A DAMPER ON STRONG CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE DEVELOPING AND THAT MAY HELP POP
SOME STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON...BUT SO FAR
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY WEAK WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING AND NO
STRONG WINDS. A SEVERE WATCH AREA REMAINS TO OUR S AND SW AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE EXTENDED UP OUR
WAY...ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH
GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BROADLY CYCLONIC YET RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE USUAL
SUSPECTS WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER FACTOR
WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXACT
TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN IFFY
PROPOSITION...BUT A COMBINATION OF  GUIDANCE...AND WATER VAPOR AND
RADAR LOOPS SHOWS ONE SUCH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY A THIRD
ONE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HOT BUT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WKND.

EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THIS WKND...BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST
OVER THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...TO PRODUCE A HOT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH UPR 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
VERY DRY-MID LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EVEN
AS AFTN CU BUILDS...SO BUILDUP WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY SHALLOW.
THE SEA BREEZE...AND ESPECIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH...MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART FIREWORKS FESTIVITIES SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE CLEAR AND DRY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 70S WELL INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE TN
VLY...AND WHILE THIS WILL STAY MOSTLY WEST OF OUR AREA...SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER
PVA. THIS WILL CREATE MORE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER AFTN CONVECTION
CHANCES...ALONG WITH KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...WITH MOST
PLACES HOVERING 1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90. CONTINUING HEIGHT
FALLS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY PERSIST CONVECTION WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DECREASED COVERAGE...AND MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AROUND 70...SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW
WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN
TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z
AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING FROM THE PRESENT 10
TO 15 KTS TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR AMZ252-256 THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR THOSE WATERS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR AMZ250...WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THAT ZONE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
OUT FOR THE REMAINDER.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DIRECTION WILL VARY LITTLE...SPEEDS SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS...HIGHEST LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE 10-
15 KTS SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT WEAKER.
ADDITIONALLY...NEAR SHORE WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
SEA BREEZE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE BEFORE RETURNING TO A SW DIRECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A
SW WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK/JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...99/REK/JDW



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 031824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER.  AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE N...SO WILL THE
SFC BOUNDARY...MOVING N INTO VA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY...BASICALLY AREAS N OF HWY
64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR...WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT WITH HIGH PWAT (>1.75") AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. MODELS SHOW
THAT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTWARD...WITH PERHAPS MOST OF OUR CWA
WEST OF I-95 REMAINING DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SUGGEST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ESP INVOF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR-CLIMO POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 031824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER.  AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE N...SO WILL THE
SFC BOUNDARY...MOVING N INTO VA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY...BASICALLY AREAS N OF HWY
64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR...WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT WITH HIGH PWAT (>1.75") AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. MODELS SHOW
THAT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTWARD...WITH PERHAPS MOST OF OUR CWA
WEST OF I-95 REMAINING DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SUGGEST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ESP INVOF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR-CLIMO POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER.  AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE N...SO WILL THE
SFC BOUNDARY...MOVING N INTO VA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY...BASICALLY AREAS N OF HWY
64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR...WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT WITH HIGH PWAT (>1.75") AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. MODELS SHOW
THAT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTWARD...WITH PERHAPS MOST OF OUR CWA
WEST OF I-95 REMAINING DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SUGGEST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ESP INVOF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR-CLIMO POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER.  AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE N...SO WILL THE
SFC BOUNDARY...MOVING N INTO VA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY...BASICALLY AREAS N OF HWY
64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR...WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT WITH HIGH PWAT (>1.75") AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. MODELS SHOW
THAT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTWARD...WITH PERHAPS MOST OF OUR CWA
WEST OF I-95 REMAINING DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SUGGEST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ESP INVOF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR-CLIMO POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER.  AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE N...SO WILL THE
SFC BOUNDARY...MOVING N INTO VA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY...BASICALLY AREAS N OF HWY
64. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR...WITH INSTABILITY
LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. BUT WITH HIGH PWAT (>1.75") AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON
LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. MODELS SHOW
THAT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BEING THE PRIMARY FEATURE
OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTWARD...WITH PERHAPS MOST OF OUR CWA
WEST OF I-95 REMAINING DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SUGGEST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW GETTING
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ESP INVOF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO OUR EAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR-CLIMO POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-DIURNAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA EACH DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031752
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 031752
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031752
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL VARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM VFR IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO IFR/LOW END MVFR OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY KFAY.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...LEAVING
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILING/FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY (FOR MID
SUMMER STANDARDS). NEAR SFC SW WINDS WILL BE 9-13KTS WITH GUSTS 20-
25KTS PROBABLE...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTH
IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KRDU BETWEEN 21Z-
02Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 031745
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SPC HAS DROPPED OUR SC COUNTIES FROM THE
ENHANCED RISK CATEGORY ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN IN SLIGHT RISK AREA-
WIDE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW:

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE DATA AND AFTER AN
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER WE GET SOME MORE HEATING. SPC NOW HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX TODAY FOR OUR NC
COUNTIES...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF. MOST
PLACES SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN
THE WRF. THE LATTER HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING
ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A
BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE
GFS APPEARS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW
WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN
TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z
AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ
250 FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EVEN 41013
IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED. WILL LET THE
HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MUTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY
FOUND OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC
HEADLINES MAINLY AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO
TIGHTEN THE MOST. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW
APPEARS TO RELAX SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO
LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...99/REK/SHK



000
FXUS62 KILM 031745
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SPC HAS DROPPED OUR SC COUNTIES FROM THE
ENHANCED RISK CATEGORY ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN IN SLIGHT RISK AREA-
WIDE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW:

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE DATA AND AFTER AN
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER WE GET SOME MORE HEATING. SPC NOW HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX TODAY FOR OUR NC
COUNTIES...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF. MOST
PLACES SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN
THE WRF. THE LATTER HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING
ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A
BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE
GFS APPEARS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW
WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN
TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z
AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ
250 FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EVEN 41013
IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED. WILL LET THE
HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MUTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY
FOUND OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC
HEADLINES MAINLY AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO
TIGHTEN THE MOST. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW
APPEARS TO RELAX SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO
LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...99/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 031745
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SPC HAS DROPPED OUR SC COUNTIES FROM THE
ENHANCED RISK CATEGORY ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN IN SLIGHT RISK AREA-
WIDE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW:

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE DATA AND AFTER AN
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER WE GET SOME MORE HEATING. SPC NOW HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX TODAY FOR OUR NC
COUNTIES...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF. MOST
PLACES SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN
THE WRF. THE LATTER HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING
ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A
BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE
GFS APPEARS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW
WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN
TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z
AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ
250 FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EVEN 41013
IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED. WILL LET THE
HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MUTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY
FOUND OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC
HEADLINES MAINLY AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO
TIGHTEN THE MOST. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW
APPEARS TO RELAX SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO
LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...99/REK/SHK



000
FXUS62 KILM 031745
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SPC HAS DROPPED OUR SC COUNTIES FROM THE
ENHANCED RISK CATEGORY ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN IN SLIGHT RISK AREA-
WIDE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
FOLLOW:

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE DATA AND AFTER AN
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER WE GET SOME MORE HEATING. SPC NOW HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX TODAY FOR OUR NC
COUNTIES...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF. MOST
PLACES SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN
THE WRF. THE LATTER HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING
ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A
BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE
GFS APPEARS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW
WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN
TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z
AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ
250 FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EVEN 41013
IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED. WILL LET THE
HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MUTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY
FOUND OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC
HEADLINES MAINLY AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO
TIGHTEN THE MOST. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW
APPEARS TO RELAX SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO
LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...99/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031532
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1132 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL MAINTAIN A
BAND OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THAT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE EDGES
(ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST) AND LIFT/MORPH INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR
MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...
THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE...LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031532
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1132 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1132 AM FRIDAY...

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS  MID LEVEL S/W APPROACHES THEN
CROSSES THE REGION.

15Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WANING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
SINCE 14Z. THE MID LEVEL S/W CURRENTLY LIFTING E-NE OUT OF EASTERN
TN AND SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
FEATURE CROSSING DURING PRIME HEATING AND AIR MASS QUITE MOIST
(PRECIP WATER VALUES VARY BETWEEN 1.7-1.9 INCHES)...SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

850-700MB WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN PROJECTED BY THE
GFS...CLOSER TO THE NAM PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF
35KTS CROSSING AL-GA PER 12Z ANALYSIS WITH 50KT JET AT 700MB OVER
CENTRAL AL. THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED THE SHEAR OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN THE UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO HOME...THE ADDED SHEAR AND THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATED BANDS. IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE HAZARDS
WILL EITHER BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK STILL EXISTS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN CONTINUES AS THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND BETTER NEAR SURFACE HELICITY.

AFTERNOON TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM...MAY NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM THE WEST-SW BY EARLY EVENING AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS
FARTHER TO THE E-NE. EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO END PRIOR TO 03Z.
STILL...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD MAY TRIGGER/SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL MAINTAIN A
BAND OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THAT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE EDGES
(ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST) AND LIFT/MORPH INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR
MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...
THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE...LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST TIME FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST TIME FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 031431
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1031 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON LATEST
SHORT RANGE DATA AND AFTER AN ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER WE GET SOME MORE HEATING. SPC NOW
HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX TODAY FOR OUR
NC COUNTIES...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF. MOST
PLACES SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN
THE WRF. THE LATTER HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING
ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A
BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE
GFS APPEARS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW
WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN
TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z
AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD ONCE THE LATEST DATA COMES IN. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EVEN 41013
IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED. WILL LET THE
HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MUTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY
FOUND OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC
HEADLINES MAINLY AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO
TIGHTEN THE MOST. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW
APPEARS TO RELAX SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO
LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...99/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 031431
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1031 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON LATEST
SHORT RANGE DATA AND AFTER AN ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER WE GET SOME MORE HEATING. SPC NOW
HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX TODAY FOR OUR
NC COUNTIES...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF. MOST
PLACES SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN
THE WRF. THE LATTER HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING
ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A
BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE
GFS APPEARS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW
WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN
TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z
AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD ONCE THE LATEST DATA COMES IN. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EVEN 41013
IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED. WILL LET THE
HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MUTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY
FOUND OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC
HEADLINES MAINLY AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO
TIGHTEN THE MOST. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW
APPEARS TO RELAX SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO
LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...99/REK/SHK



000
FXUS62 KRAH 031200
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL MAINTAIN A
BAND OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THAT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE EDGES
(ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST) AND LIFT/MORPH INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR
MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...
THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE...LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 031200
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL MAINTAIN A
BAND OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THAT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE EDGES
(ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST) AND LIFT/MORPH INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR
MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...
THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE...LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 031200
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL MAINTAIN A
BAND OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THAT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE EDGES
(ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST) AND LIFT/MORPH INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR
MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...
THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE...LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 031200
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL MAINTAIN A
BAND OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THAT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE EDGES
(ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST) AND LIFT/MORPH INTO A CUMULUS
FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR
MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...
THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE...LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KILM 031159
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE MAIN FLOW. STILL EXPECT A
LULL LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE NEXT PLAYER IS ALREADY ENTERING
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS QUICK PROGRESSION MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE THREAT...DECREASING IT SOMEWHAT AS THE
ACTIVITY NEGATES SOME HEATING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF YET. CIGS
SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW WINDS EXPECTED
EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z AND AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE WIND FIELD
GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS TO AT
PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT CANT
DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER  OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW AND
COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN
LETTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT
DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 031159
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE MAIN FLOW. STILL EXPECT A
LULL LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE NEXT PLAYER IS ALREADY ENTERING
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS QUICK PROGRESSION MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE THREAT...DECREASING IT SOMEWHAT AS THE
ACTIVITY NEGATES SOME HEATING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF YET. CIGS
SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW WINDS EXPECTED
EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z AND AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE WIND FIELD
GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS TO AT
PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT CANT
DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER  OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW AND
COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN
LETTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT
DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 031159
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE MAIN FLOW. STILL EXPECT A
LULL LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE NEXT PLAYER IS ALREADY ENTERING
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS QUICK PROGRESSION MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE THREAT...DECREASING IT SOMEWHAT AS THE
ACTIVITY NEGATES SOME HEATING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF YET. CIGS
SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW WINDS EXPECTED
EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z AND AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE WIND FIELD
GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS TO AT
PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT CANT
DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER  OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW AND
COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN
LETTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT
DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 031159
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE MAIN FLOW. STILL EXPECT A
LULL LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE NEXT PLAYER IS ALREADY ENTERING
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS QUICK PROGRESSION MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE THREAT...DECREASING IT SOMEWHAT AS THE
ACTIVITY NEGATES SOME HEATING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF YET. CIGS
SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW WINDS EXPECTED
EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z AND AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE WIND FIELD
GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS TO AT
PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT CANT
DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER  OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW AND
COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN
LETTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT
DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031043
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST TIME FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031043
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST TIME FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 031032
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE MAIN FLOW. STILL EXPECT A
LULL LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE NEXT PLAYER IS ALREADY ENTERING
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS QUICK PROGRESSION MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE THREAT...DECREASING IT SOMEWHAT AS THE
ACTIVITY NEGATES SOME HEATING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...AND WHILE VFR PREVAILS...COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
     WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN
LETTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT
DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 031032
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE MAIN FLOW. STILL EXPECT A
LULL LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE NEXT PLAYER IS ALREADY ENTERING
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS QUICK PROGRESSION MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE THREAT...DECREASING IT SOMEWHAT AS THE
ACTIVITY NEGATES SOME HEATING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...AND WHILE VFR PREVAILS...COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
     WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN
LETTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT
DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 031032
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE MAIN FLOW. STILL EXPECT A
LULL LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE NEXT PLAYER IS ALREADY ENTERING
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS QUICK PROGRESSION MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE THREAT...DECREASING IT SOMEWHAT AS THE
ACTIVITY NEGATES SOME HEATING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...AND WHILE VFR PREVAILS...COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
     WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN
LETTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT
DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030842
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030842
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030842
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030842
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030842
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030842
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030842
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030842
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...

A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE ONLY MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE ASSOCIATED FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WSW TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED
L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO DIRECT UPSTREAM MCV/S
AND IMPULSES ACROSS NC AND VA...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED ONE
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY VALLEY THIS MORNING TO
WEST-CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-00Z. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY FOLLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AN APPARENT ONE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER OK THIS MORNING...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL ZONE --DEEP THROUGH THE 925-
850 MB LAYER PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL VWP DATA--
HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. THE MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO VA AND ALLOW A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ENVELOP CENTRAL NC TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND VA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION MIDDAY ONWARD...SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...OR AT
LEAST SEGMENTS THEREOF...WILL BE MODULATED SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE FRONT...AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS IT; THE ENE MIGRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY; AND LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN
ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 21-03Z...FROM
THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT...TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHEN 925
MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 150-250 M2/S2
RANGE THERE...SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO
TRACK TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SAT MORNING...HIGH PWAT VALUES
AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC ON SAT...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH AND A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
WARM...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW NC PIEDMONT...IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED SEASONABLY STRONG
SW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZATION...
AND DCAPE SHOULD BE HIGH WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 25 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED QPF SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT SEEMS JUSTIFIED. LOWS AGAIN AROUND
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030819
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
419 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. DURING PEAK HEATING THIS FRONT WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR
WILL BE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL
OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE
WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN NC TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2". WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER
16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
HAS FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030819
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
419 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. DURING PEAK HEATING THIS FRONT WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR
WILL BE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL
OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE
WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN NC TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2". WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER
16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
HAS FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030819
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
419 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. DURING PEAK HEATING THIS FRONT WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR
WILL BE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL
OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE
WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN NC TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2". WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER
16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
HAS FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED FROM
NEAR TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM. THIS
AREA STRETCHES ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A RECENT UPTICK IN
SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS OCCURRING WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION... VERY LITTLE CG LIGHTNING. WE WILL FOLLOW THE MESO-
ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND KEEP LIKELY POP GOING A BIT LONGER. TRENDS
DO SUGGEST LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM NEAR
CLAYTON TO WILSON AND SOUTH OF TARBORO IN A NARROW AXIS. SOME
TRAILING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY GET GOING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE WEST EDGE OF THE OUTFLOWS AS WELL BACK OVER IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE... THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED FROM
NEAR TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM. THIS
AREA STRETCHES ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A RECENT UPTICK IN
SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS OCCURRING WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION... VERY LITTLE CG LIGHTNING. WE WILL FOLLOW THE MESO-
ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND KEEP LIKELY POP GOING A BIT LONGER. TRENDS
DO SUGGEST LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM NEAR
CLAYTON TO WILSON AND SOUTH OF TARBORO IN A NARROW AXIS. SOME
TRAILING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY GET GOING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE WEST EDGE OF THE OUTFLOWS AS WELL BACK OVER IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE... THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE US NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH ON SATURDAY
BEFORE ESSENTIALLY CUTTING OFF FROM THE FLOW AND DRIFTING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.  THERE MAY BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW...ALBEIT WEAK...AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AMIDST PW OVER
1.75" SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY THE MONDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST SHIFT NORTH INTO
VA AND THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LESS OF A THREAT...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
REAR ITS HEAD...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY... THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EVENTUALLY YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A COLD FRONT DYING JUST TO OUR
NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY
AMPLIFIED AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KILM 030727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... POPS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN SHIFTS TO CONVECTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS ALL
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT
OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S EVENTS.
MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS ONCE
AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...AND WHILE VFR PREVAILS...COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 030727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... POPS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE PICTURE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN SHIFTS TO CONVECTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS ALL
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT
OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S EVENTS.
MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS ONCE
AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...AND WHILE VFR PREVAILS...COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
242 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC AND VA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED FROM
NEAR TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM. THIS
AREA STRETCHES ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A RECENT UPTICK IN
SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS OCCURRING WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION... VERY LITTLE CG LIGHTNING. WE WILL FOLLOW THE MESO-
ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND KEEP LIKELY POP GOING A BIT LONGER. TRENDS
DO SUGGEST LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM NEAR
CLAYTON TO WILSON AND SOUTH OF TARBORO IN A NARROW AXIS. SOME
TRAILING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY GET GOING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE WEST EDGE OF THE OUTFLOWS AS WELL BACK OVER IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE... THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT --AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE-- WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS THIS
MORNING. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MORPH AFTER
DAYBREAK INTO A CUMULUS FIELD...WHOSE BASES ARE APT TO FLIRT WITH
THE 3000 FT/MVFR THRESHOLD THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THOUGH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE 10-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY...AND AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE...BETWEEN 16Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY SUN-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN
OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KILM 030526
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT
DISAPPEARED SANS WAY UPSTREAM SO I HAVE DECREASED POPS DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.
IT WOULD APPEAR THE CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY HAVE
DIMINISHED DUE TO A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THJE STORM TRACK TO BEND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THUS LEAVING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECIVE CLUSTERS
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND VERY FAR SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM
THURSDAY`S ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED POPS IN PLAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MET ONCE AGAIN HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON COOLER HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY AND OPTED FOR THESE NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A BLEND
FOR SATURDAY`S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THU. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...AND WHILE VFR PREVAILS...COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING IS
ABATING RAPIDLY AS A TOUR OF THE LOCAL BUOYS SHOW A DECIDEDLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS. WILL HANG ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEAS WILL
REMAINED CHURNED UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS FOR TODAY WINDS REMAIN
BENIGN THEN CRANK UP AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
PROGRESSION DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 030526
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT
DISAPPEARED SANS WAY UPSTREAM SO I HAVE DECREASED POPS DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.
IT WOULD APPEAR THE CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY HAVE
DIMINISHED DUE TO A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THJE STORM TRACK TO BEND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THUS LEAVING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECIVE CLUSTERS
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND VERY FAR SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM
THURSDAY`S ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED POPS IN PLAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MET ONCE AGAIN HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON COOLER HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY AND OPTED FOR THESE NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A BLEND
FOR SATURDAY`S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THU. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...AND WHILE VFR PREVAILS...COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING IS
ABATING RAPIDLY AS A TOUR OF THE LOCAL BUOYS SHOW A DECIDEDLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS. WILL HANG ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEAS WILL
REMAINED CHURNED UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS FOR TODAY WINDS REMAIN
BENIGN THEN CRANK UP AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
PROGRESSION DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030526
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT
DISAPPEARED SANS WAY UPSTREAM SO I HAVE DECREASED POPS DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.
IT WOULD APPEAR THE CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY HAVE
DIMINISHED DUE TO A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THJE STORM TRACK TO BEND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THUS LEAVING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECIVE CLUSTERS
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND VERY FAR SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM
THURSDAY`S ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED POPS IN PLAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MET ONCE AGAIN HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON COOLER HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY AND OPTED FOR THESE NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A BLEND
FOR SATURDAY`S LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THU. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...AND WHILE VFR PREVAILS...COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING IS
ABATING RAPIDLY AS A TOUR OF THE LOCAL BUOYS SHOW A DECIDEDLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS. WILL HANG ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEAS WILL
REMAINED CHURNED UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS FOR TODAY WINDS REMAIN
BENIGN THEN CRANK UP AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
PROGRESSION DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030458
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS GETTING HANDLE ON
POPS/WX IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MAINLY WEAKENING CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN NC. WHILE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING, NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAMLICO
SOUND/CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM INDICATE THAT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY EAST
AND EXTEND THROUGH 12Z. WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO THROUGH FRIDAY. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S
AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES. STRONG
SW WINDS TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. MINOR TWEAKS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND 5 TO 8 FEET SOUTH. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/BTC/CTC/HSA/BM



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030458
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS GETTING HANDLE ON
POPS/WX IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MAINLY WEAKENING CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN NC. WHILE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING, NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAMLICO
SOUND/CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM INDICATE THAT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY EAST
AND EXTEND THROUGH 12Z. WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO THROUGH FRIDAY. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S
AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES. STRONG
SW WINDS TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. MINOR TWEAKS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND 5 TO 8 FEET SOUTH. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/BTC/CTC/HSA/BM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED FROM
NEAR TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM. THIS
AREA STRETCHES ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A RECENT UPTICK IN
SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS OCCURRING WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION... VERY LITTLE CG LIGHTNING. WE WILL FOLLOW THE MESO-
ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND KEEP LIKELY POP GOING A BIT LONGER. TRENDS
DO SUGGEST LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM NEAR
CLAYTON TO WILSON AND SOUTH OF TARBORO IN A NARROW AXIS. SOME
TRAILING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY GET GOING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE WEST EDGE OF THE OUTFLOWS AS WELL BACK OVER IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE... THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED FROM
NEAR TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM. THIS
AREA STRETCHES ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A RECENT UPTICK IN
SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS OCCURRING WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION... VERY LITTLE CG LIGHTNING. WE WILL FOLLOW THE MESO-
ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND KEEP LIKELY POP GOING A BIT LONGER. TRENDS
DO SUGGEST LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM NEAR
CLAYTON TO WILSON AND SOUTH OF TARBORO IN A NARROW AXIS. SOME
TRAILING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY GET GOING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE WEST EDGE OF THE OUTFLOWS AS WELL BACK OVER IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE... THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED FROM
NEAR TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM. THIS
AREA STRETCHES ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A RECENT UPTICK IN
SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS OCCURRING WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION... VERY LITTLE CG LIGHTNING. WE WILL FOLLOW THE MESO-
ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND KEEP LIKELY POP GOING A BIT LONGER. TRENDS
DO SUGGEST LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM NEAR
CLAYTON TO WILSON AND SOUTH OF TARBORO IN A NARROW AXIS. SOME
TRAILING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY GET GOING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE WEST EDGE OF THE OUTFLOWS AS WELL BACK OVER IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE... THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED FROM
NEAR TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM. THIS
AREA STRETCHES ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A RECENT UPTICK IN
SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS OCCURRING WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION... VERY LITTLE CG LIGHTNING. WE WILL FOLLOW THE MESO-
ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL MLCAPES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND KEEP LIKELY POP GOING A BIT LONGER. TRENDS
DO SUGGEST LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM NEAR
CLAYTON TO WILSON AND SOUTH OF TARBORO IN A NARROW AXIS. SOME
TRAILING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY GET GOING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE WEST EDGE OF THE OUTFLOWS AS WELL BACK OVER IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

OTHERWISE... THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND
WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN
VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030242
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH.
TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL
CONTINUING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HWY 70
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MUGGY LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
25-30 AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 5 TO 7 FEET
SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA/BM



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030242
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH.
TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL
CONTINUING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HWY 70
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MUGGY LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
25-30 AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 5 TO 7 FEET
SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA/BM




000
FXUS62 KILM 030240
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF THE COAST LATE
THIS EVE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR RUBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO OUR WSW REACHES THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAS BEGUN TO BACK
OFF...SHOWING LESS AND LESS IN THE WAY OF RENEWED CONVECTION. THUS
HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT INLAND.
ALONG THE COAST...HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION
FINALLY EXITS OR JUST SLOWLY DISSIPATES IN PLACE.

LOW LEVEL JETTING SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT...BUT
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN...
EXPECT WE WILL SEE LOW STRATUS DEVELOP AND EXPAND. THUS...IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EVEN AFTER THE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT.

THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 70S THIS EVE AND TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LOWER TO MID
70S.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GAUGE IN DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THU. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
BRING SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS...FURTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST JETTING...WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT AND SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 5 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN RAISED.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030240
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF THE COAST LATE
THIS EVE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR RUBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO OUR WSW REACHES THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAS BEGUN TO BACK
OFF...SHOWING LESS AND LESS IN THE WAY OF RENEWED CONVECTION. THUS
HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT INLAND.
ALONG THE COAST...HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION
FINALLY EXITS OR JUST SLOWLY DISSIPATES IN PLACE.

LOW LEVEL JETTING SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT...BUT
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN...
EXPECT WE WILL SEE LOW STRATUS DEVELOP AND EXPAND. THUS...IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EVEN AFTER THE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT.

THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 70S THIS EVE AND TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LOWER TO MID
70S.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GAUGE IN DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THU. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
BRING SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS...FURTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST JETTING...WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT AND SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 5 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN RAISED.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030200
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED FROM
NEAR TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND WAS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN VALLEY. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030200
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED FROM
NEAR TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND WAS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN VALLEY. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030159
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FROM NEAR
TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND WAS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030159
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

ONLY A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FROM NEAR
TROY TO NEAR CLAYTON... MOVING SLOWLY E-NE AT 1000 PM. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION HAS ROUGHLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND WAS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN VALLEY. THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE... CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE NOW EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KILM 030038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND
MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID
EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM.
MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH
BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND
MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID
EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM.
MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH
BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND
MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID
EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM.
MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH
BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND
MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID
EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM.
MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH
BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND
MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID
EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM.
MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH
BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND
MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID
EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM.
MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH
BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND
MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID
EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM.
MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH
BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND
MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID
EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM.
MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH
BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 030038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND
MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID
EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM.
MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH
BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW
MOVING 925-850MB TROUGH...ORIENTATED SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W WAS LIFTING E-NE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THIS CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNSET.

SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT 18Z THOUGH BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE 5-10KTS STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS.
WITH SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS...COULD SEE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...A MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW
MOVING 925-850MB TROUGH...ORIENTATED SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W WAS LIFTING E-NE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THIS CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNSET.

SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT 18Z THOUGH BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE 5-10KTS STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS.
WITH SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS...COULD SEE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...A MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW
MOVING 925-850MB TROUGH...ORIENTATED SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W WAS LIFTING E-NE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THIS CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNSET.

SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT 18Z THOUGH BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE 5-10KTS STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS.
WITH SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS...COULD SEE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...A MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW
MOVING 925-850MB TROUGH...ORIENTATED SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W WAS LIFTING E-NE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THIS CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNSET.

SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT 18Z THOUGH BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE 5-10KTS STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS.
WITH SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS...COULD SEE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...A MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS HOUR BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK
BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING IT UP PARTICULARLY WELL AND CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. TRIAD SITES AND KRWI WHICH IS GETTING
SOME EXTENDED PRECIPITATION MAY BE THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

LONG TERM: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KILM 022321
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
721 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY
DEEPER CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000
J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS
AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT
NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS THE STORMS
DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE AREA IN THE
4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME.

THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS
WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING
THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE
LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUES AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUES INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING
THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUES. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 022321
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
721 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY
DEEPER CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000
J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS
AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT
NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS THE STORMS
DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE AREA IN THE
4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME.

THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS
WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING
THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE
LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUES AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUES INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING
THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUES. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 022307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL CONTINUING LIKELY POPS INLAND BUT
DECREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
ADVISORIES WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 26 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA



000
FXUS62 KMHX 022307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL CONTINUING LIKELY POPS INLAND BUT
DECREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
ADVISORIES WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 26 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 022307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL CONTINUING LIKELY POPS INLAND BUT
DECREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
ADVISORIES WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 26 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021920
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIDING THRU THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE FIRST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BUT
MODEST SHEAR AND CAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS VIA WET MICROBURST WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT, BUT SOME LARGER HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A FEW TSTORMS
MAY LINGER THRU EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. MUGGY
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALCHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU MID AFTERNOON, THEN
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD EASTERN US
TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. CUD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND TROF. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER PAMLICO SOUND. FARTHER
NORTH AND FOR INLAND RIVERS, THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL
SUPPORT 10-20 KT WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021920
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIDING THRU THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE FIRST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BUT
MODEST SHEAR AND CAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS VIA WET MICROBURST WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT, BUT SOME LARGER HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A FEW TSTORMS
MAY LINGER THRU EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. MUGGY
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALCHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU MID AFTERNOON, THEN
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD EASTERN US
TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. CUD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND TROF. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER PAMLICO SOUND. FARTHER
NORTH AND FOR INLAND RIVERS, THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL
SUPPORT 10-20 KT WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021901
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW
MOVING 925-850MB TROUGH...ORIENTATED SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W WAS LIFTING E-NE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THIS CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNSET.

SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT 18Z THOUGH BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE 5-10KTS STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS.
WITH SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS...COULD SEE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...A MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021901
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW
MOVING 925-850MB TROUGH...ORIENTATED SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W WAS LIFTING E-NE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THIS CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNSET.

SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT 18Z THOUGH BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE 5-10KTS STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS.
WITH SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS...COULD SEE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...A MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021901
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW
MOVING 925-850MB TROUGH...ORIENTATED SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W WAS LIFTING E-NE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THIS CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNSET.

SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT 18Z THOUGH BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE 5-10KTS STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS.
WITH SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS...COULD SEE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...A MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021901
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH..AND STALL
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS
OVERHEAD...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AT MID AFTERNOON THANKS TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW
MOVING 925-850MB TROUGH...ORIENTATED SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W WAS LIFTING E-NE OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GROW IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THIS CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNSET.

SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT 18Z THOUGH BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE 5-10KTS STRONGER COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL PROJECTIONS.
WITH SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS...COULD SEE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...A MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER FRIDAY. BASED
ON CURRENT TIMING...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN NORMAL...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM.

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30KTS...
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO BROKEN
BANDS...PRODUCING STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN NORTH AS WELL AS
MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH SO SHOULD SEE A TEMP RANGE OF LOW-
MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTH. EARLIER INITIATION OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS (2-3 DEGREES
COOLER).

CURRENTLY APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX EXITS
OUR REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE/DIMINISH BETWEEN 7-10 PM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF OF A MOIST AIR MASS...A STALLED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND PERTURBATIONS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 021859
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
259 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000
J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS
AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS
THE STORMS DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE
AREA IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME.

THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS
WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING
THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE
LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUES AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUES INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS AROUND
10KT. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH DIRECTIONS OF S-W POSSIBLE.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING WEST OF KFLO.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT EARLY EVENING AND
COASTAL TERMINALS MID-LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THINK MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE JUST SHOWERS. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT WEST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING
THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUES. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III/MBB



000
FXUS62 KILM 021859
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
259 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000
J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS
AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS
THE STORMS DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE
AREA IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME.

THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS
WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING
THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE
LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUES AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUES INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS AROUND
10KT. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH DIRECTIONS OF S-W POSSIBLE.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING WEST OF KFLO.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT EARLY EVENING AND
COASTAL TERMINALS MID-LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THINK MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE JUST SHOWERS. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT WEST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING
THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUES. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 021859
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
259 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000
J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS
AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS
THE STORMS DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE
AREA IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME.

THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS
WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING
THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE
LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUES AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUES INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS AROUND
10KT. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH DIRECTIONS OF S-W POSSIBLE.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING WEST OF KFLO.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT EARLY EVENING AND
COASTAL TERMINALS MID-LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THINK MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE JUST SHOWERS. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT WEST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING
THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUES. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III/MBB



000
FXUS62 KILM 021859
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
259 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000
J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS
AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS
THE STORMS DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE
AREA IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME.

THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS
WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING
THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE
LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUES AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUES INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS AROUND
10KT. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH DIRECTIONS OF S-W POSSIBLE.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING WEST OF KFLO.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT EARLY EVENING AND
COASTAL TERMINALS MID-LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THINK MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE JUST SHOWERS. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT WEST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING
THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUES. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III/MBB




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC...WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT THIS
MEANS WEATHER-WISE IS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY/EVENING HOURS AND LESS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW`S IN THE 1.5-2
INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
SOME MINOR FLOODING RESULTING FROM DEVELOPING STORMS. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...CENTRAL NC IS UNDER JUST A GENERAL THUNDER THREAT FOR
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON MONDAY MAY BRING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK SHEAR. GIVEN HOW THINGS CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 021814
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
214 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000
J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS
AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS
THE STORMS DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE
AREA IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME.

THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS
WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING
THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE
LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES
LOCALLY, HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND
PERHAPS A NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD
DIMINISH RAINFALL COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE
THE FAVORED TRACK FOR VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS
TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG
TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS AROUND
10KT. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH DIRECTIONS OF S-W POSSIBLE.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING WEST OF KFLO.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT EARLY EVENING AND
COASTAL TERMINALS MID-LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THINK MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE JUST SHOWERS. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT WEST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING
THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES.
THIS SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021814
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
214 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000
J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS
AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL
SUPPORT NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS
THE STORMS DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE
INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE
AREA IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME.

THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS
WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING
THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE
LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES
LOCALLY, HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND
PERHAPS A NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD
DIMINISH RAINFALL COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE
THE FAVORED TRACK FOR VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS
TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG
TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS AROUND
10KT. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH DIRECTIONS OF S-W POSSIBLE.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING WEST OF KFLO.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT EARLY EVENING AND
COASTAL TERMINALS MID-LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THINK MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE JUST SHOWERS. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT WEST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING
THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES.
THIS SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES. IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS LIKELY.

A STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021726
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL
TRENDS BRINGING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED
SUNSHINE OCCURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS OF LATE MORNING
AND AND EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PARTIAL SUN WILL YIELD HIGHS OF UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...SIGNALS POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AROUND 30 KT
OF SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT O SUPPORT AT
LEAST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING SOME RATHER
ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF E NC. AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION FOR LARGE SCALE OMEGA...AND SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NC TO SOUTHEAST VA. MODELS
STILL INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL
INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S. IF MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND WITH ~25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...02/00Z GFS HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLTY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50 POPS EACH DAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPR 80S DURING THE DAY
AND LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST THINKING IS THAT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WASHING OUT. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
TYPE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU MID AFTERNOON, THEN
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD EASTERN US
TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. CUD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY) WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG EACH
NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE TODAY AND 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND SCA WILL LIKELY
BE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. THIS IS DUE TO SFC LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY HOWEVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAVERING ABOUT HERE. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST...AND TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST WINDS THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021726
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL
TRENDS BRINGING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED
SUNSHINE OCCURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS OF LATE MORNING
AND AND EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PARTIAL SUN WILL YIELD HIGHS OF UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...SIGNALS POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AROUND 30 KT
OF SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT O SUPPORT AT
LEAST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING SOME RATHER
ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF E NC. AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION FOR LARGE SCALE OMEGA...AND SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NC TO SOUTHEAST VA. MODELS
STILL INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL
INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S. IF MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND WITH ~25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...02/00Z GFS HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLTY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50 POPS EACH DAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPR 80S DURING THE DAY
AND LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST THINKING IS THAT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WASHING OUT. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
TYPE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU MID AFTERNOON, THEN
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD EASTERN US
TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. CUD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY) WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG EACH
NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE TODAY AND 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND SCA WILL LIKELY
BE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. THIS IS DUE TO SFC LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY HOWEVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAVERING ABOUT HERE. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST...AND TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST WINDS THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021726
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL
TRENDS BRINGING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED
SUNSHINE OCCURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS OF LATE MORNING
AND AND EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PARTIAL SUN WILL YIELD HIGHS OF UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...SIGNALS POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AROUND 30 KT
OF SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT O SUPPORT AT
LEAST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING SOME RATHER
ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF E NC. AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION FOR LARGE SCALE OMEGA...AND SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NC TO SOUTHEAST VA. MODELS
STILL INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL
INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S. IF MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND WITH ~25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...02/00Z GFS HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLTY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50 POPS EACH DAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPR 80S DURING THE DAY
AND LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST THINKING IS THAT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WASHING OUT. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
TYPE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU MID AFTERNOON, THEN
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD EASTERN US
TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. CUD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY) WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG EACH
NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE TODAY AND 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND SCA WILL LIKELY
BE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. THIS IS DUE TO SFC LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY HOWEVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAVERING ABOUT HERE. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST...AND TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST WINDS THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021726
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL
TRENDS BRINGING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED
SUNSHINE OCCURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS OF LATE MORNING
AND AND EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PARTIAL SUN WILL YIELD HIGHS OF UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...SIGNALS POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AROUND 30 KT
OF SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT O SUPPORT AT
LEAST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING SOME RATHER
ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF E NC. AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION FOR LARGE SCALE OMEGA...AND SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NC TO SOUTHEAST VA. MODELS
STILL INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL
INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S. IF MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND WITH ~25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...02/00Z GFS HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLTY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50 POPS EACH DAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPR 80S DURING THE DAY
AND LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST THINKING IS THAT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WASHING OUT. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
TYPE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU MID AFTERNOON, THEN
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD EASTERN US
TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. CUD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY) WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG EACH
NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE TODAY AND 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND SCA WILL LIKELY
BE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. THIS IS DUE TO SFC LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY HOWEVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAVERING ABOUT HERE. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST...AND TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST WINDS THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021459
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1059 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL
TRENDS BRINGING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED
SUNSHINE OCCURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS OF LATE MORNING
AND AND EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PARTIAL SUN WILL YIELD HIGHS OF UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...SIGNALS POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AROUND 30 KT
OF SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT O SUPPORT AT
LEAST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING SOME RATHER
ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF E NC. AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION FOR LARGE SCALE OMEGA...AND SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NC TO SOUTHEAST VA. MODELS
STILL INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL
INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S. IF MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND WITH ~25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...02/00Z GFS HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLTY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50 POPS EACH DAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPR 80S DURING THE DAY
AND LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST THINKING IS THAT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WASHING OUT. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
TYPE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST TODAY
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PICK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY) WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG EACH
NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE TODAY AND 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND SCA WILL LIKELY
BE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. THIS IS DUE TO SFC LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY HOWEVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAVERING ABOUT HERE. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST...AND TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST WINDS THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021459
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1059 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL
TRENDS BRINGING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED
SUNSHINE OCCURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS OF LATE MORNING
AND AND EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PARTIAL SUN WILL YIELD HIGHS OF UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...SIGNALS POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AROUND 30 KT
OF SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT O SUPPORT AT
LEAST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING SOME RATHER
ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF E NC. AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION FOR LARGE SCALE OMEGA...AND SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NC TO SOUTHEAST VA. MODELS
STILL INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL
INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S. IF MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND WITH ~25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...02/00Z GFS HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLTY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50 POPS EACH DAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPR 80S DURING THE DAY
AND LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST THINKING IS THAT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WASHING OUT. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
TYPE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST TODAY
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PICK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY) WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG EACH
NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE TODAY AND 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND SCA WILL LIKELY
BE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. THIS IS DUE TO SFC LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY HOWEVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAVERING ABOUT HERE. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST...AND TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST WINDS THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021441
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021441
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021441
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021441
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021441
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021441
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...

INITIAL WEAK S/W LIFTING NEWD AND EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
AT 14Z. EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH DRIED UP
AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO ERODE/DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER EASTERN TN. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY NEAR TERM
MODELS. PARTIAL SUN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX SHOULD ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION SO THAT WE SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE
THE 12Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATED TROUGH.

LATEST SPC MESO SCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODEST BULK SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 20-25KTS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SHEAR
MAY EXIST TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO FORM IN BROKEN BANDS WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE RISK FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED PRIOR TO 19Z...SOME
PLACES MAY SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KILM 021436
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1036 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...BROAD 5H TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON WV IMAGERY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN GA AT THE PRESENT TIME. PVA FROM THIS
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
WAVE DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. HEATING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 5 AND 6
C/KM...SO DESPITE PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND LINGERING
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS THINK MOST CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT BUT UNSURE AS TO HOW
MUCH THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
ROBUST THERE MAY BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY LEFT OVER
DESPITE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE ALL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL END UP WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. COMBINATION OF CIRRUS BLOW OFF
AND SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST FIRES HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH BY SUBTLE FLATTENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS WILL END UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 90S...AWAY FROM THE BEACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS
TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG
TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH/SEA
BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT TODAY. SPEEDS
WILL CREEP UP LATE IN THE DAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 KT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT
ACROSS NC WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS SC WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES.
THIS SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021436
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1036 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...BROAD 5H TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON WV IMAGERY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN GA AT THE PRESENT TIME. PVA FROM THIS
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
WAVE DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. HEATING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 5 AND 6
C/KM...SO DESPITE PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND LINGERING
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS THINK MOST CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT BUT UNSURE AS TO HOW
MUCH THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
ROBUST THERE MAY BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY LEFT OVER
DESPITE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE ALL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL END UP WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. COMBINATION OF CIRRUS BLOW OFF
AND SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST FIRES HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH BY SUBTLE FLATTENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS WILL END UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 90S...AWAY FROM THE BEACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS
TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG
TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH/SEA
BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT TODAY. SPEEDS
WILL CREEP UP LATE IN THE DAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 KT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT
ACROSS NC WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS SC WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES.
THIS SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 021436
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1036 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...BROAD 5H TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON WV IMAGERY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN GA AT THE PRESENT TIME. PVA FROM THIS
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
WAVE DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. HEATING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 5 AND 6
C/KM...SO DESPITE PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND LINGERING
BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS THINK MOST CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT BUT UNSURE AS TO HOW
MUCH THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
ROBUST THERE MAY BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY LEFT OVER
DESPITE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE ALL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL END UP WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. COMBINATION OF CIRRUS BLOW OFF
AND SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST FIRES HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH BY SUBTLE FLATTENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS WILL END UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 90S...AWAY FROM THE BEACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS
TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG
TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH/SEA
BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT TODAY. SPEEDS
WILL CREEP UP LATE IN THE DAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 KT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT
ACROSS NC WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS SC WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES.
THIS SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 021142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING
CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO
INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON
AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS.
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND
MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS
AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX
FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 021142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING
CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO
INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON
AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS.
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND
MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS
AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX
FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING
CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO
INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON
AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS.
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND
MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS
AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX
FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING
CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO
INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON
AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS.
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND
MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS
AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX
FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING
CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO
INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON
AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS.
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND
MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS
AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX
FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 021142
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING
CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO
INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON
AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS.
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND
MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT
GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN
BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS
AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX
FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
727 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT A QUICKLY-FOLLOWING AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SC UPSTATE...AND AN ASSOCIATED
MCV...WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE
MORNING-AROUND NOON. SKY COVERAGE IS APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH TIME SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE/MCV. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SUCH CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GLANCING PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER AT 12Z...AND ANOTHER
PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND
WESTERN TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ON
THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
727 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT A QUICKLY-FOLLOWING AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SC UPSTATE...AND AN ASSOCIATED
MCV...WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE
MORNING-AROUND NOON. SKY COVERAGE IS APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH TIME SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE/MCV. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SUCH CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GLANCING PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER AT 12Z...AND ANOTHER
PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND
WESTERN TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ON
THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
727 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT A QUICKLY-FOLLOWING AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SC UPSTATE...AND AN ASSOCIATED
MCV...WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE
MORNING-AROUND NOON. SKY COVERAGE IS APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH TIME SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE/MCV. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SUCH CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GLANCING PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER AT 12Z...AND ANOTHER
PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND
WESTERN TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ON
THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
727 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT A QUICKLY-FOLLOWING AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SC UPSTATE...AND AN ASSOCIATED
MCV...WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE
MORNING-AROUND NOON. SKY COVERAGE IS APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH TIME SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE/MCV. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SUCH CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GLANCING PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER AT 12Z...AND ANOTHER
PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND
WESTERN TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ON
THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
727 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT A QUICKLY-FOLLOWING AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SC UPSTATE...AND AN ASSOCIATED
MCV...WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE
MORNING-AROUND NOON. SKY COVERAGE IS APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH TIME SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE/MCV. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SUCH CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GLANCING PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER AT 12Z...AND ANOTHER
PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND
WESTERN TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ON
THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
727 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT A QUICKLY-FOLLOWING AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SC UPSTATE...AND AN ASSOCIATED
MCV...WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT BY LATE
MORNING-AROUND NOON. SKY COVERAGE IS APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH TIME SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE/MCV. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SUCH CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GLANCING PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER AT 12Z...AND ANOTHER
PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND
WESTERN TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ON
THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021114 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...YIELDING PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AMIDST CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
ASSOCIATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA...WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF BOTH AN
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IL AND A PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021114 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...YIELDING PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AMIDST CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
ASSOCIATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA...WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF BOTH AN
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IL AND A PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021114 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...YIELDING PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AMIDST CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
ASSOCIATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA...WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF BOTH AN
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IL AND A PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021114
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
614 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...YIELDING PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AMIDST CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
ASSOCIATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA...WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF BOTH AN
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IL AND A PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021114
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
614 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...YIELDING PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AMIDST CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
ASSOCIATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA...WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF BOTH AN
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IL AND A PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021114
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
614 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...YIELDING PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AMIDST CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
ASSOCIATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA...WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF BOTH AN
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IL AND A PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021114 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...

A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PRECEDING WAA-DRIVEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA/LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL PIVOT ESE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING...YIELDING PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AMIDST CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
ASSOCIATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA...WILL PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF BOTH AN
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IL AND A PROBABLE MCV FROM DEEP CONVECTION
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MO AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...AROUND 6 C/KM...SEASONABLY STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT MULTI-CELL
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH/MOVE ENE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY... AMIDST CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED RENEWED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OR MAINTENANCE FROM UPSTREAM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NEAR THE VA BORDER...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SYNOPTIC/DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH VA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE -
69-74.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...

WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MODULATE THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT AND LIKELY CAUSE IT TO SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ABOUT THE
FRONT(S); THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS; AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND CINH...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MULTI-
CELL STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR STORMS
TRAINING ALONG THE GENERALLY EAST TO WEST-ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY DISPLAY TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ROTATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OWING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE
BOUNDARY.

WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE NE OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE THE VA COAST FRI NIGHT...HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND MINIMAL CINH...DESPITE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/WEAK
INSTABILITY...WARRANTS A CONTINUED SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN US.  A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT AND
CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
CENTRAL NC.  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION EACH
DAY...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY THAT MAY SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY TO MORE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... AND THEN
TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.  HIGH PW AND MODEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PRECEDING DAYS.
HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DEBRIS CLOUDING...WITH MOSTLY MID
80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF WARMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A
LITTLE LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
YIELDS SOME REESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED
AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM THURSDAY...

CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS...AND VIRGA OR VFR SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC (INCLUDING RWI)
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE OR TWO WILL CROSS NC TODAY...AND ANOTHER LATE
TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING; AND SOME MAY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SSW
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OVER VA/NC AND RESULT
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI-MON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KILM 021029
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING
CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO
INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON
AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS.
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND
MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN TO SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE E TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE NEAR
THE START OF THE PERIOD.

BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ELEVATED SW WINDS...GIVEN 25 KT
JETTING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

VFR WITH WEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS
AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX
FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 021029
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING
CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO
INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON
AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS.
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
OR  JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY,
HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A
NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL
COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND
MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN TO SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE E TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE NEAR
THE START OF THE PERIOD.

BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ELEVATED SW WINDS...GIVEN 25 KT
JETTING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

VFR WITH WEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS
AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL
LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX
FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS.


SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...  A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME
GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE
LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS
TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS.
SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS
ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021016
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
616 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR
VICINITY OF I95 BUT DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS, POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING
INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA
BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED SUNSHINE
OCCURS BUT FOLLOWED GUIDANCE OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND
MID 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...SIGNALS POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AROUND 30 KT
OF SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT O SUPPORT AT
LEAST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING SOME RATHER
ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF E NC. AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION FOR LARGE SCALE OMEGA...AND SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NC TO SOUTHEAST VA. MODELS
STILL INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL
INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S. IF MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND WITH ~25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...02/00Z GFS HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLTY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50 POPS EACH DAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPR 80S DURING THE DAY
AND LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST THINKING IS THAT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WASHING OUT. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
TYPE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST TODAY
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PICK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY) WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG EACH
NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE TODAY AND 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND SCA WILL LIKELY
BE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. THIS IS DUE TO SFC LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY HOWEVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAVERING ABOUT HERE. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST...AND TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST WINDS THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021016
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
616 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR
VICINITY OF I95 BUT DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS, POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING
INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA
BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED SUNSHINE
OCCURS BUT FOLLOWED GUIDANCE OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND
MID 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...SIGNALS POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AROUND 30 KT
OF SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT O SUPPORT AT
LEAST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING SOME RATHER
ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF E NC. AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION FOR LARGE SCALE OMEGA...AND SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NC TO SOUTHEAST VA. MODELS
STILL INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL
INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S. IF MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND WITH ~25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...02/00Z GFS HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLTY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50 POPS EACH DAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPR 80S DURING THE DAY
AND LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST THINKING IS THAT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WASHING OUT. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
TYPE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST TODAY
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PICK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY) WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG EACH
NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE TODAY AND 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND SCA WILL LIKELY
BE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. THIS IS DUE TO SFC LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY HOWEVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAVERING ABOUT HERE. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST...AND TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST WINDS THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021016
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
616 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR
VICINITY OF I95 BUT DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS, POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING
INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA
BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED SUNSHINE
OCCURS BUT FOLLOWED GUIDANCE OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND
MID 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...SIGNALS POINTING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AROUND 30 KT
OF SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT O SUPPORT AT
LEAST MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WRF-NMM IS FORECASTING SOME RATHER
ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PROFILES SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS INDICATING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL FEATURE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF E NC. AREA WILL BE UNDER FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION FOR LARGE SCALE OMEGA...AND SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL NC TO SOUTHEAST VA. MODELS
STILL INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
LAYER MIX RATIOS AND PWS WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA AND ACT TO INC LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHAT. ECMWF STILL
INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES...A VERY MOIST ATMS EVEN FOR EARLY JULY. EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S. IF MORE SOLAR
INSOLATION OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AND WITH ~25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ATMS MOISTURE
CONTENT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...02/00Z GFS HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLTY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF IN KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED 30-50 POPS EACH DAY...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH UPR 80S DURING THE DAY
AND LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST THINKING IS THAT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WASHING OUT. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY PATTERN WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
TYPE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S DURING THE DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST TODAY
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PICK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY) WITH
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4 TERMINALS DURING HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MAY BE PERIODS OF FOG EACH
NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE SUBSEQUENT RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE TODAY AND 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND SCA WILL LIKELY
BE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. THIS IS DUE TO SFC LOW PRES INLAND AND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. 6 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY HOWEVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATERS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WAVERING ABOUT HERE. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST...AND TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST WINDS THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021016
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
616 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A SERIES OF "COLD FRONTS" MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR
VICINITY OF I95 BUT DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS, POCKETS OF BETTER HEATING
INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SEA
BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONVECTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SPC IS FORECASTING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE AREA
BUT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AOA 2" WET MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MBE
VECTOR FORECASTS SUPPORT TRAINING CELLS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH FILTERED SUNSHINE
OCCURS BUT FOLLOWED GUIDA