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000
FXUS62 KILM 291926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NE/NC
GOMEX TO WEAKEN AND START MOVING ASHORE IN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL THUS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE
AND BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE MID LEVELS. LOW LEVEL WILL LAG
BEHIND BUT SHOULD STILL KICK IN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME RAIN
CHANCES WILL THUS RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM SOME MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF CHS CWA APPEARS
TO BE DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO LIGHT FORCING
AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON A
STRENGTHENING OF THE LIFT AND LESSENING OF THE DEWPOINT WILL FAVOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...KEY WEATHER CAPTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
REMAINS EARLY SUNDAY ARRIVAL...FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENCE...OF DEEP
COLUMN MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR PRESENTATIONS SHOW WELL THE UPPER
LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PUMPING VAPOR RICH AIR INTO
THE SE STATES. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL HOLD BOTH DAYS ALLOWING
THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SWAMPY...WHILE OPENING A
WINDOW OF MIGRATION OF MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES NNE INTO
THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM AFTERNOON
CLOUD BREAKS SHOULD HELP SPUR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO THE ELEVATED MOISTURE CONTENT AND CLOUDS...MAXIMUMS
WILL RUN NEAR TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE...WHILE MINIMUMS DROP NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SINCE NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
WEAKENED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED STILL LOOKS LIKELY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO
THE AREA.

RECENTLY DEGENERATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA WILL MEANDER
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN SIT AND SPIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...A
DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL STREAM UP INTO THE
CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. OBVIOUS
PWAT PLUME WILL ADVECT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THEN MAINTAIN OR
REASSERT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES SPUN OFF FROM THE RESIDUAL VORTICITY OF ERIKA WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD...AIDING LIFT EVEN THOUGH JET LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL.
HARD TO FIND ANY SPECIFIC SURFACE FORCING MECHANISMS...ALTHOUGH A
RESULTANT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTN...AND
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN EACH DAY TUE...WED...THU...AND FRI...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY MAY BE
THE LEAST ACTIVE OF THE STRETCH. WPC HAS 1-3 INCHES OF QPF DURING
THIS TIME...BUT ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...FOCUSED MOSTLY
ACROSS SC WHICH MAY GET INTO THE HIGHEST PWAT AIR. BY SATURDAY A
SURGE OF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING A REPRIEVE TO
THE ACTIVE WEATHER.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
RAIN. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE CIRRUS LEVEL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL SHOW LOWERING
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CAP THE FALL TO MVFR THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS DO
FALL TO IFR AT MYR, CRE, AND EVEN ILM. AT TIME FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE
BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE. WILL ALSO CARRY VCSH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ALONG SC COAST BUT THE RAIN ITSELF NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER
ANY FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED THE SCEC A BIT EARLY AS SEAS HAVE
DECREASED TO 3 FT AT NEAR SHORE BUOY 41110 AND 4.5 FT ALL THE WAY
OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY 41035. CONDITIONS ARE STILL QUITE
CHOPPY WITH EVEN THE LATTER BUOY SHOWING A WAVE POWER PEAK AT JUST
5 SECONDS. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND THE LOCAL GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS WILL DO THE
SAME.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...A VEERING WIND DIRECTION PROFILE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS
A RETURN FLOW. THE FETCH LENGTH OF WINDS ONSHORE IS A LONG AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE TO THE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS.
SEAS EAST 3-4 FEET RUNNING EVERY 9-10 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED LIGHT
TO MODERATE CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DOT THE 0-20NM MARINE
WATERS BOTH DAYS AND MARINERS SHOULD MAINTAIN RADAR UPDATES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA SOUTH OF FLORIDA WILL DRIVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH FLUCTUATIONS TO NE AND SE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
THOUGH...SO WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10
KTS...BUT WILL BE BELOW THIS THRESHOLDS MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...NO
SWELL FROM ERIKA WILL ADVECT LOCALLY...SO THE WEAKENING SWELL
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MBB/DL


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000
FXUS62 KRAH 291900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY...AND AS EARLIER
NOTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS...THOUGH...SHOW A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING BELOW ABOUT 700MB. WITH LOW K INDICES
OVERNIGHT AND THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST OF A PERSISTENT 850MB THETA-E
TROUGH...DESPITE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA GRADUALLY MOVING
NORTH THAT IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES THE DRIER MEAN AIR
MASS TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT WHICH RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR WRF WOULD SUGGEST HOLDING TOGETHER JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ THIS EVENING. WILL NOTE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRENCE IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY BE BARELY PERCEPTIBLE DUE TO THE DRY AIR FORECAST
ON THE GFS BUFR SOUNDING FOR KFAY THIS EVENING DESPITE MOISTENING
ALOFT.

THE FORECAST OF OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OF SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGES OF AREAS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EXPECTED ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS THE TEMPTATION IS TO FORECAST LOWS AT LEAST ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE
CURRENT DEW POINTS WILL COMPROMISE WITH A BLEND OF THE HIGHER MAV
AND LOWER MET MOS. OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A RESULT...LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

THE GFS AND NAM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GULF INTO AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. OVERALL MOISTENING OF THE
AIR MASS CONTINUES...AND BY 00Z MONDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT TO JUST
OVER 1.75 INCHES TOWARD INTERSTATE 95. THE 850MB THETA-E TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT SLOWLY RETREATS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH K INDICES FINALLY ABOVE 30 THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A 55 TO 60KT 300MB JET MAXIMUM MOVES
OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 35KT 500MB
JETLET.

DESPITE THE AIR MASS MOISTENING AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...THE
PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN LIMITED LIFT...AND THE
BROAD...RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPIATATION. THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE ESSENTIALLY NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE PATCHY SPRINKLES BEFORE THEN...BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW 700MB MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW THE 700MB LAYER
MOISTENING GRADUALLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY 00Z
MONDAY THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KAFP TO KRWI...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. IN GENERAL THINK THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS AS
THOSE LEVELS MOISTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO
PROVIDE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND LIFT ARE FORECAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH MOST MOS GUIDANCE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL BLEND THE GFS AND NAM OUTPUT IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT KVUJ TO KRWI...LOW CHANCES NORTH OF THERE. PROS FOR
SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. CONS ARE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
CONCERNS OVER HOW FAST THE LOW-LEVELS ARE ABLE TO MOISTEN. SOME
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW HARDLY ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...
AND WHERE THERE IS QPF ON THE GFS AND NAM IT IS MOSTLY PRETTY LIGHT.
WHERE RAIN IS ABLE TO OCCUR...IF IT IS ABLE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SEEM TO INDICATE AN AIR MASS CAPPED FOR
THUNDER SO WILL JUST NOTE SHOWERS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES
FORECAST ABOUT 100-200J/KG OF MARGINAL CAPE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY 84 TO 88. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE ORIGINATED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS TREK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (BEST CHANCES
SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY) AS THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY GETS
PICKED UP AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS OVER THE NORTHEAST US/SOUTHEAST CANADA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...ERIKA HAS WEAKENED INTO
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ONLY HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF REDEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT REEMERGES AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT ERIKA IS
LOOKING TO BEST LESS AND LESS A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE DRAWN UP TOWARDS OUR REGION
(ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA)...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED (MOSTLY
DIURNAL) SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGARDLESS...PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS IT IS HARD TO FAVOR ONE DAY
OVER ANOTHER. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY...AND AS EARLIER
NOTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS...THOUGH...SHOW A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING BELOW ABOUT 700MB. WITH LOW K INDICES
OVERNIGHT AND THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST OF A PERSISTENT 850MB THETA-E
TROUGH...DESPITE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA GRADUALLY MOVING
NORTH THAT IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES THE DRIER MEAN AIR
MASS TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT WHICH RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR WRF WOULD SUGGEST HOLDING TOGETHER JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ THIS EVENING. WILL NOTE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRENCE IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER...ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY BE BARELY PERCEPTIBLE DUE TO THE DRY AIR FORECAST
ON THE GFS BUFR SOUNDING FOR KFAY THIS EVENING DESPITE MOISTENING
ALOFT.

THE FORECAST OF OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE OF SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGES OF AREAS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EXPECTED ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS THE TEMPTATION IS TO FORECAST LOWS AT LEAST ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE
CURRENT DEW POINTS WILL COMPROMISE WITH A BLEND OF THE HIGHER MAV
AND LOWER MET MOS. OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A RESULT...LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

THE GFS AND NAM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GULF INTO AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. OVERALL MOISTENING OF THE
AIR MASS CONTINUES...AND BY 00Z MONDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT TO JUST
OVER 1.75 INCHES TOWARD INTERSTATE 95. THE 850MB THETA-E TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT SLOWLY RETREATS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH K INDICES FINALLY ABOVE 30 THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A 55 TO 60KT 300MB JET MAXIMUM MOVES
OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 35KT 500MB
JETLET.

DESPITE THE AIR MASS MOISTENING AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...THE
PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN LIMITED LIFT...AND THE
BROAD...RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPIATATION. THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE ESSENTIALLY NO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE PATCHY SPRINKLES BEFORE THEN...BUT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW 700MB MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW THE 700MB LAYER
MOISTENING GRADUALLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY 00Z
MONDAY THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KAFP TO KRWI...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. IN GENERAL THINK THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS AS
THOSE LEVELS MOISTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO
PROVIDE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND LIFT ARE FORECAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH MOST MOS GUIDANCE POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL BLEND THE GFS AND NAM OUTPUT IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT KVUJ TO KRWI...LOW CHANCES NORTH OF THERE. PROS FOR
SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. CONS ARE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
CONCERNS OVER HOW FAST THE LOW-LEVELS ARE ABLE TO MOISTEN. SOME
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW HARDLY ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL...
AND WHERE THERE IS QPF ON THE GFS AND NAM IT IS MOSTLY PRETTY LIGHT.
WHERE RAIN IS ABLE TO OCCUR...IF IT IS ABLE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SEEM TO INDICATE AN AIR MASS CAPPED FOR
THUNDER SO WILL JUST NOTE SHOWERS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES
FORECAST ABOUT 100-200J/KG OF MARGINAL CAPE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY 84 TO 88. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE ORIGINATED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS TREK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (BEST CHANCES
SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY) AS THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY GETS
PICKED UP AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS OVER THE NORTHEAST US/SOUTHEAST CANADA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING FOR PRECIP. IN ADDITION...ERIKA HAS WEAKENED INTO
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ONLY HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF REDEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT REEMERGES AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT ERIKA IS
LOOKING TO BEST LESS AND LESS A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY STILL BE DRAWN UP TOWARDS OUR REGION
(ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA)...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED (MOSTLY
DIURNAL) SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGARDLESS...PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS IT IS HARD TO FAVOR ONE DAY
OVER ANOTHER. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...DJF


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 291831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS HIGH PRES TO
THE N SETTLES S OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE TO THE SE WILL
MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THIS SHLD KEEP SHRA MAINLY OVER
WATER OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS WITH LOWER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GRDNT WL LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DRIFT NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. WILL SEE
THE NE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS CURRENTLY GRAD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR
LESS BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE AREA
SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE. EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID
DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE. SEAS WILL CONT 3 TO 5 FT THRU
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...BVM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS HIGH PRES TO
THE N SETTLES S OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE TO THE SE WILL
MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THIS SHLD KEEP SHRA MAINLY OVER
WATER OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS WITH LOWER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GRDNT WL LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DRIFT NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. WILL SEE
THE NE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS CURRENTLY GRAD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR
LESS BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE AREA
SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE. EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID
DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE. SEAS WILL CONT 3 TO 5 FT THRU
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...BVM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED UNDER 10KT SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIKELY BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KFAY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A PERIOD OF A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND...
BEFORE MIXING THERE RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY WIND BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS TO WEAKEN SOME WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH...MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A DRY AIR MASS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS VFR. SHOULD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL DRYING OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO DAWN
MONDAY IN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...AVIATION
INTERESTS CAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KILM 291737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL APPROACH FLORIDA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...A RATHER NICE SATURDAY FORECAST AS LONG AS
ONE DOESN`T MIND THE SUNLIGHT BEING INCREASINGLY FILTERED BY A
GROWING CANOPY OF CIRRUS. THE DEWPOINT HAS CREPT UP FROM YESTERDAY
AND THE HRRR HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SHOWERS MATERIALIZE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SUCCESSIVE RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME-ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD
BE NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 18Z...MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE CIRRUS LEVEL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL SHOW LOWERING
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CAP THE FALL TO MVFR THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS DO
FALL TO IFR AT MYR, CRE, AND EVEN ILM. AT TIME FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE
BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE. WILL ALSO CARRY VCSH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ALONG SC COAST BUT THE RAIN ITSELF NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER
ANY FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL RATHER
CHOPPY AND WILL LEAVE SCEC AS-IS IN THE CONTINUED MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 291737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL APPROACH FLORIDA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...A RATHER NICE SATURDAY FORECAST AS LONG AS
ONE DOESN`T MIND THE SUNLIGHT BEING INCREASINGLY FILTERED BY A
GROWING CANOPY OF CIRRUS. THE DEWPOINT HAS CREPT UP FROM YESTERDAY
AND THE HRRR HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SHOWERS MATERIALIZE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SUCCESSIVE RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME-ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD
BE NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 18Z...MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE CIRRUS LEVEL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL SHOW LOWERING
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CAP THE FALL TO MVFR THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS DO
FALL TO IFR AT MYR, CRE, AND EVEN ILM. AT TIME FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE
BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE. WILL ALSO CARRY VCSH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ALONG SC COAST BUT THE RAIN ITSELF NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER
ANY FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL RATHER
CHOPPY AND WILL LEAVE SCEC AS-IS IN THE CONTINUED MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 291737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL APPROACH FLORIDA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...A RATHER NICE SATURDAY FORECAST AS LONG AS
ONE DOESN`T MIND THE SUNLIGHT BEING INCREASINGLY FILTERED BY A
GROWING CANOPY OF CIRRUS. THE DEWPOINT HAS CREPT UP FROM YESTERDAY
AND THE HRRR HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SHOWERS MATERIALIZE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SUCCESSIVE RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME-ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD
BE NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 18Z...MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE CIRRUS LEVEL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL SHOW LOWERING
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL
CAP THE FALL TO MVFR THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS DO
FALL TO IFR AT MYR, CRE, AND EVEN ILM. AT TIME FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE
BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE. WILL ALSO CARRY VCSH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ALONG SC COAST BUT THE RAIN ITSELF NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER
ANY FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL RATHER
CHOPPY AND WILL LEAVE SCEC AS-IS IN THE CONTINUED MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291709
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BVM/TL
MARINE...RF/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291709
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BVM/TL
MARINE...RF/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291709
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BVM/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291638
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291638
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291638
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291638
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 291426
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...A RATHER NICE SATURDAY FORECAST AS LONG AS
ONE DOESN`T MIND THE SUNLIGHT BEING INCREASINGLY FILTERED BY A
GROWING CANOPY OF CIRRUS. THE DEWPOINT HAS CREPT UP FROM YESTERDAY
AND THE HRRR HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SHOWERS MATERIALIZE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SUCCESSIVE RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME-ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD
BE NON-MEASUREABLE SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WILL TRY TO BRING UP MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD
TO GIVE US ANY WEATHER. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL RATHER
CHOPPY AND WILL LEAVE SCEC AS-IS IN THE CONTINUED MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 291426
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...A RATHER NICE SATURDAY FORECAST AS LONG AS
ONE DOESN`T MIND THE SUNLIGHT BEING INCREASINGLY FILTERED BY A
GROWING CANOPY OF CIRRUS. THE DEWPOINT HAS CREPT UP FROM YESTERDAY
AND THE HRRR HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SHOWERS MATERIALIZE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SUCCESSIVE RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME-ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD
BE NON-MEASUREABLE SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WILL TRY TO BRING UP MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD
TO GIVE US ANY WEATHER. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL RATHER
CHOPPY AND WILL LEAVE SCEC AS-IS IN THE CONTINUED MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED
FRONT CONTS TO PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA
ARE A BIT CLOSER TO OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT
MAJORITY WILL REMAIN OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN
NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED
FRONT CONTS TO PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA
ARE A BIT CLOSER TO OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT
MAJORITY WILL REMAIN OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN
NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291307
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
BETWEEN 7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF/WSS
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291307
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
BETWEEN 7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF/WSS
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291307
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
BETWEEN 7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF/WSS
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291307
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH AN 850MB RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIMITED 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION...MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES
INDICATED THE INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WELL...STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD
COVER...SPREADS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUDS EXPECTED EVEN
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z TO 20Z.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT THIN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER. AS SUN BECOMES MORE FILTERED OVER TIME WITH
LIKELY A GREATER DEGREE OF OPAQUE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS...THE EFFECT
SHOULD DAMPEN THE TEMPERATURE RISE. STILL...DID NOT LOWER MAXES TOO
MUCH...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH THIN SPOTS
TO GET WARMING SUFFICIENT FOR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE BEYOND THIS WRITING AT AN EARLY SUN TIME. RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING ONLY ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR BELOW 500MB AND
A VERY CAPPED AIR MASS.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
BETWEEN 7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF/WSS
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KILM 291059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
658 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING
AT A PCPN-FREE FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...JUST OFF THE
ILM CWA COASTLINE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE
ORIENTED NE-SW AND RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES
BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE ROMAINE. WEAK SFC LOW PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MOVE NE TO CAPE HATTERAS
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT MAY ATLEAST
REACH THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. VARIOUS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE A DRY LEVEL
BETWEEN 850MB AND 400MB INITIALLY WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 1 INCH.
MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN LATER
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY
OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT...WITH PROGGED PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50
INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO EXACERBATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. TRIGGERS TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL
OCCUR DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

OVERALL...OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED CU DURING TODAY...LOOK
FOR INCREASING OPAQUE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE
BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAYS HIGHS AND
TONIGHTS LOWS. DID HOWEVER STAY WITH A DRIER BIAS AT THE SFC...AND
IS REFLECTED WITH A LOWER HOURLY SFC DEWPOINT THRUOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE SOME EVEN DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT THIS AFTN...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ACROSS THE NW-N PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WILL TRY TO BRING UP MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD
TO GIVE US ANY WEATHER. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KILM 291059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
658 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING
AT A PCPN-FREE FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...JUST OFF THE
ILM CWA COASTLINE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE
ORIENTED NE-SW AND RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES
BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE ROMAINE. WEAK SFC LOW PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MOVE NE TO CAPE HATTERAS
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT MAY ATLEAST
REACH THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. VARIOUS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE A DRY LEVEL
BETWEEN 850MB AND 400MB INITIALLY WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 1 INCH.
MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN LATER
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY
OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT...WITH PROGGED PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50
INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO EXACERBATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. TRIGGERS TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL
OCCUR DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

OVERALL...OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED CU DURING TODAY...LOOK
FOR INCREASING OPAQUE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE
BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAYS HIGHS AND
TONIGHTS LOWS. DID HOWEVER STAY WITH A DRIER BIAS AT THE SFC...AND
IS REFLECTED WITH A LOWER HOURLY SFC DEWPOINT THRUOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE SOME EVEN DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT THIS AFTN...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ACROSS THE NW-N PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WILL TRY TO BRING UP MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD
TO GIVE US ANY WEATHER. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 291059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
658 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING
AT A PCPN-FREE FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...JUST OFF THE
ILM CWA COASTLINE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE
ORIENTED NE-SW AND RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES
BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE ROMAINE. WEAK SFC LOW PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MOVE NE TO CAPE HATTERAS
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT MAY ATLEAST
REACH THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. VARIOUS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE A DRY LEVEL
BETWEEN 850MB AND 400MB INITIALLY WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 1 INCH.
MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN LATER
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY
OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT...WITH PROGGED PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50
INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO EXACERBATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. TRIGGERS TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL
OCCUR DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

OVERALL...OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED CU DURING TODAY...LOOK
FOR INCREASING OPAQUE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE
BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAYS HIGHS AND
TONIGHTS LOWS. DID HOWEVER STAY WITH A DRIER BIAS AT THE SFC...AND
IS REFLECTED WITH A LOWER HOURLY SFC DEWPOINT THRUOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE SOME EVEN DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT THIS AFTN...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ACROSS THE NW-N PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WILL TRY TO BRING UP MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD
TO GIVE US ANY WEATHER. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 291054
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING
AT A PCPN-FREE FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...JUST OFF THE
ILM CWA COASTLINE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE
ORIENTED NE-SW AND RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES
BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE ROMAINE. WEAK SFC LOW PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MOVE NE TO CAPE HATTERAS
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT MAY ATLEAST
REACH THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. VARIOUS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE A DRY LEVEL
BETWEEN 850MB AND 400MB INITIALLY WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 1 INCH.
MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN LATER
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY
OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT...WITH PROGGED PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50
INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO EXACERBATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. TRIGGERS TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL
OCCUR DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

OVERALL...OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED CU DURING TODAY...LOOK
FOR INCREASING OPAQUE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE
BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAYS HIGHS AND
TONIGHTS LOWS. DID HOWEVER STAY WITH A DRIER BIAS AT THE SFC...AND
IS REFLECTED WITH A LOWER HOURLY SFC DEWPOINT THRUOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE SOME EVEN DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT THIS AFTN...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ACROSS THE NW-N PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 291054
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING
AT A PCPN-FREE FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...JUST OFF THE
ILM CWA COASTLINE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE
ORIENTED NE-SW AND RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES
BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE ROMAINE. WEAK SFC LOW PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MOVE NE TO CAPE HATTERAS
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT MAY ATLEAST
REACH THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. VARIOUS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE A DRY LEVEL
BETWEEN 850MB AND 400MB INITIALLY WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 1 INCH.
MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN LATER
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY
OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT...WITH PROGGED PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50
INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO EXACERBATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. TRIGGERS TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL
OCCUR DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

OVERALL...OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED CU DURING TODAY...LOOK
FOR INCREASING OPAQUE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE
BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAYS HIGHS AND
TONIGHTS LOWS. DID HOWEVER STAY WITH A DRIER BIAS AT THE SFC...AND
IS REFLECTED WITH A LOWER HOURLY SFC DEWPOINT THRUOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE SOME EVEN DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT THIS AFTN...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ACROSS THE NW-N PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291040
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
BETWEEN 7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291040
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
BETWEEN 7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290803 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290803 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE
EJECTION/PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING-- FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. MEANWHILE...AN
UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AND RE-CARVE THE TROUGH
WESTWARD...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BULGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. A STRONGLY POSITIVELY-TILTED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SEPARATE THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND ANOTHER FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AND IN ADVANCE OF)
ERIKA...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE FROM (AND THE OVERALL INFLUENCE OF)
ERIKA...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA EVOLVES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAS CONTINUED A WESTWARD TREND
WITH THE TRACK OF WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA...WITH THE PREFERRED NHC
TRACK NOW THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FL EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A POSITION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
GA BY WED. CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ERIKA...
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION MAY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH BOTH LAND AND A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OR IF IT SURVIVES... REGENERATION/
STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARM WATERS AND IN A
WEAKENING WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN GOM.

REGARDLESS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER...IN WHATEVER STATE IT MAY BE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL
NC BY THE MERGING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGES ALOFT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE COAST. AS SUCH...OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED INDIRECTLY BY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STREAMING
NNE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN BOTH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES - HIGHEST SOUTH IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO - PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW /ABOVE FOR HIGHS/LOWS DEPENDING ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 290759
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
359 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING AT
A PCPN-FREE FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...JUST OFF THE
ILM CWA COASTLINE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE
...ORIENTED NE-SW AND RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINES BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE ROMAINE. WEAK SFC LOW
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND RACE NE TO CAPE
HATTERAS TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT MAY
ATLEAST REACH THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY.
VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE A DRY
LEVEL BETWEEN 850MB AND 400MB INITIALLY WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 1
INCH. MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN
LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO...MAINLY OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT...WITH PROGGED PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
EXACERBATED SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. TRIGGERS TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA WILL OCCUR DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL...OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED CU DURING TODAY...LOOK FOR
INCREASING OPAQUE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE
BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAYS HIGHS AND
TONIGHTS LOWS. DID HOWEVER STAY WITH A DRIER BIAS AT THE
SFC...AND IS REFLECTED WITH A LOWER HOURLY SFC DEWPOINT THRUOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE SOME EVEN DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT THIS AFTN...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ACROSS THE NW-N PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PREDICTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 290759
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
359 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING AT
A PCPN-FREE FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...JUST OFF THE
ILM CWA COASTLINE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE
...ORIENTED NE-SW AND RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINES BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE ROMAINE. WEAK SFC LOW
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND RACE NE TO CAPE
HATTERAS TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT MAY
ATLEAST REACH THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY.
VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE A DRY
LEVEL BETWEEN 850MB AND 400MB INITIALLY WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 1
INCH. MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN
LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO...MAINLY OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT...WITH PROGGED PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
EXACERBATED SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. TRIGGERS TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ILM CWA WILL OCCUR DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL...OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED CU DURING TODAY...LOOK FOR
INCREASING OPAQUE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE
BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAYS HIGHS AND
TONIGHTS LOWS. DID HOWEVER STAY WITH A DRIER BIAS AT THE
SFC...AND IS REFLECTED WITH A LOWER HOURLY SFC DEWPOINT THRUOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE SOME EVEN DRIER AIR
TEMPORARILY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT THIS AFTN...WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ACROSS THE NW-N PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PREDICTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 290737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PREDICTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 290737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PREDICTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 290737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PREDICTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 290737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PREDICTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 290737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PREDICTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 290737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PREDICTED FROM THE HIGHER NE
WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW.

THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER
TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME
TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS
MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF
THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE
TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15
KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS
FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER
INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR
GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE
GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER
THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE
WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS
WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290736 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS SETUP WOULD
SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE). REGARDLESS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290736 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS SETUP WOULD
SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE). REGARDLESS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290736 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS SETUP WOULD
SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE). REGARDLESS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290736 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS SETUP WOULD
SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE). REGARDLESS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290736
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS SETUP WOULD
SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE). REGARDLESS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290736
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK S/W
RIDGE ALOFT WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THAT THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
BLOCK OUT THE SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH AND POINTS EAST AND
NORTH...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED
FRIDAY...SOLIDLY IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. PRESENCE OF THE
SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
SO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 LOOK ACHIEVABLE ONCE
AGAIN...NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN GULF S/W THOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ANY
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LACKING. WEAK (EMPHASIS ON WEAK) LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SATURDAY...

HAVE TRENDED FORECAST THIS PERIOD A LITTLE WETTER...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS NORTHERN GULF SYSTEM LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW...RESULTING IN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN-WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE NAM WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SANDHILLS. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER THE
SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE.
THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...UP TO 40
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY/SUNDAY
EVENING.

DUE TO EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN
A BIT OVER THE WEST AND SW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS
ARE LOWER/THICKER THAN EXPECTED OR SHOWER COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE BY
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...S/W LIFTS NEWD IMMEDIATELY WEST OF OUR REGION LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WEAK
SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MOIST LAYER. THUS...SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON
THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS SETUP WOULD
SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE). REGARDLESS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 290705
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES.
STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENG MESOSCALE INDUCED
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL INCREASING
TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE WINDS WILL
DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING CALM BY
MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHEAST
FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS WITH
WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 290705
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES.
STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENG MESOSCALE INDUCED
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL INCREASING
TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE WINDS WILL
DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING CALM BY
MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHEAST
FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS WITH
WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/SGL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290535
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM FRIDAY...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PATCHY AREAS OF
CUMULUS WERE DISSIPATING AND SPREADING OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE REGION WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THERE WAS ALSO A STREAM OF CIRRUS
RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MID
EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE MID 70S WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM PA/MD ACROSS NC INTO SC. WINDS WERE
LIGHT. OVERNIGHT... NO MAJOR ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE CIRRUS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT
AT TIMES REVEALING FAIR SKIES. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S (INCREDIBLY
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST) AND ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290535
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM FRIDAY...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PATCHY AREAS OF
CUMULUS WERE DISSIPATING AND SPREADING OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE REGION WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THERE WAS ALSO A STREAM OF CIRRUS
RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MID
EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE MID 70S WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM PA/MD ACROSS NC INTO SC. WINDS WERE
LIGHT. OVERNIGHT... NO MAJOR ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE CIRRUS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT
AT TIMES REVEALING FAIR SKIES. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S (INCREDIBLY
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST) AND ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 290520
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES.
STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
...VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENG MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 290520
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES.
STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
...VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENG MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 290520
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES.
STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
...VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENG MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 290520
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES.
STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
...VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENG MESOSCALE
INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL
INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE
WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING
CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING CALM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
STAY FAR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO THE VERY
OUTER MOST WATERS WITH WX OVER LAND. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS OVERALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING CALM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
STAY FAR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO THE VERY
OUTER MOST WATERS WITH WX OVER LAND. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS OVERALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING CALM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
STAY FAR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO THE VERY
OUTER MOST WATERS WITH WX OVER LAND. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS OVERALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING CALM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
STAY FAR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO THE VERY
OUTER MOST WATERS WITH WX OVER LAND. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS OVERALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KILM 290205
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES.
STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN LOW AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT KLBT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY
MVFR INTO GOING TAFS ATTM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/MBB



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290119
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
912 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM FRIDAY...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PATCHY AREAS OF
CUMULUS WERE DISSIPATING AND SPREADING OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE REGION WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THERE WAS ALSO A STREAM OF CIRRUS
RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MID
EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE MID 70S WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM PA/MD ACROSS NC INTO SC. WINDS WERE
LIGHT. OVERNIGHT... NO MAJOR ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE CIRRUS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT
AT TIMES REVEALING FAIR SKIES. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
(INCREDIBLY COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST) AND ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290119
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
912 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM FRIDAY...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PATCHY AREAS OF
CUMULUS WERE DISSIPATING AND SPREADING OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE REGION WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THERE WAS ALSO A STREAM OF CIRRUS
RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MID
EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE MID 70S WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM PA/MD ACROSS NC INTO SC. WINDS WERE
LIGHT. OVERNIGHT... NO MAJOR ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE CIRRUS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT
AT TIMES REVEALING FAIR SKIES. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
(INCREDIBLY COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST) AND ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290054
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER... THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IF THE HIGH
CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH AND WINDS GO CALM... GIVEN THERE IS ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE. GIVEN ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS NEEDING TO
OCCUR... THINK THE THREAT FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS AT KRWI IS WAY TO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...
EXCEPT AT KFAY/KRWI... WHERE GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...77/30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290054
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER... THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IF THE HIGH
CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH AND WINDS GO CALM... GIVEN THERE IS ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE. GIVEN ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS NEEDING TO
OCCUR... THINK THE THREAT FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS AT KRWI IS WAY TO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...
EXCEPT AT KFAY/KRWI... WHERE GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...77/30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290054
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER... THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IF THE HIGH
CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH AND WINDS GO CALM... GIVEN THERE IS ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE. GIVEN ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS NEEDING TO
OCCUR... THINK THE THREAT FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS AT KRWI IS WAY TO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...
EXCEPT AT KFAY/KRWI... WHERE GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...77/30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290054
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER... THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IF THE HIGH
CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH AND WINDS GO CALM... GIVEN THERE IS ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE. GIVEN ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS NEEDING TO
OCCUR... THINK THE THREAT FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS AT KRWI IS WAY TO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...
EXCEPT AT KFAY/KRWI... WHERE GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WIND IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...77/30




000
FXUS62 KILM 282347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS
THE FORECAST GOES. STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN LOW AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT KLBT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY
MVFR INTO GOING TAFS ATTM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS
WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 282347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS
THE FORECAST GOES. STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN LOW AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT KLBT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY
MVFR INTO GOING TAFS ATTM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS
WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 282347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS
THE FORECAST GOES. STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN LOW AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT KLBT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY
MVFR INTO GOING TAFS ATTM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS
WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 282347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS
THE FORECAST GOES. STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN LOW AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT KLBT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY
MVFR INTO GOING TAFS ATTM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND OF
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS
WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE CONDITIONS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/MBB




000
FXUS62 KMHX 282245
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR UPDATE. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NNE
OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 282245
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR UPDATE. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NNE
OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA



000
FXUS62 KMHX 282245
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR UPDATE. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NNE
OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281915
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KILM 281914
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
314 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON
A NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN
PLACE. AREA-WIDE THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AND EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK
HEATING (THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND
HORRY). SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1
SM) THOUGH AS HINTED AT BY AVIATION FORECASTER THERE COULD BE SOME
MVFR-ISH MIST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY
INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW
70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VERY
NEARSHORE VEER TO EASTERLY NOTED IN BUOY 41110 NOTED IN SEA BREEZE
THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO PENETRATE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
BRUNSWICK AND FAR SRN NEW HANOVER BUT NOT EVEN THE MYRTLES. WITH
LOSS OF HEATING A NE WIND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME PREDOMINANT
DIRECTION WITH HIGH SITTING TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SMALL
TURN TO MORE OFFSHORE NEAR LAND SHOULD A WEAK LAND BREEZE DEVELOP
BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR IN MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL SCALE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 281914
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
314 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON
A NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN
PLACE. AREA-WIDE THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION AND EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK
HEATING (THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND
HORRY). SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1
SM) THOUGH AS HINTED AT BY AVIATION FORECASTER THERE COULD BE SOME
MVFR-ISH MIST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY
INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW
70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING
BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA.

MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME
BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE
OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP.
NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES
SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION.

NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO
TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT
WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER
AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL
SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE
EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK.

WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT
DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED.  WHILE THE
POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA.
ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE
IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2
INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED-
FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP
POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL
SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT
OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VERY
NEARSHORE VEER TO EASTERLY NOTED IN BUOY 41110 NOTED IN SEA BREEZE
THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO PENETRATE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
BRUNSWICK AND FAR SRN NEW HANOVER BUT NOT EVEN THE MYRTLES. WITH
LOSS OF HEATING A NE WIND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME PREDOMINANT
DIRECTION WITH HIGH SITTING TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SMALL
TURN TO MORE OFFSHORE NEAR LAND SHOULD A WEAK LAND BREEZE DEVELOP
BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR IN MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL SCALE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE
NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING
RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW
TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM
UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP
BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON
MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD
CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR/MBB



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281912
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
312 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281912
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
312 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281912
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
312 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281912
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
312 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. DRY
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
IN TO THE REGION FROM THE MIDATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KILM 281747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 281747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 281747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 281747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BUILDING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT GENERALLY SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT Z. SCT SKIES EXPECTED AT KFLO/KLBT.

WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NE AT 5 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE AT KLBT WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTEST. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND GROUND
TEMPS WARM THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ATTM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE
WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281630
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONT TO WORK IN
FROM THE NW. SHRA REMAINING WELL OFF THE COAST SO DROPPED POPS
OBX. LOWERED SKY COVER A BIT MORE CST WITH PC SKIES EXPECTED.
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTUREOFFSHORE.
SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281630
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONT TO WORK IN
FROM THE NW. SHRA REMAINING WELL OFF THE COAST SO DROPPED POPS
OBX. LOWERED SKY COVER A BIT MORE CST WITH PC SKIES EXPECTED.
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTUREOFFSHORE.
SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281630
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONT TO WORK IN
FROM THE NW. SHRA REMAINING WELL OFF THE COAST SO DROPPED POPS
OBX. LOWERED SKY COVER A BIT MORE CST WITH PC SKIES EXPECTED.
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTUREOFFSHORE.
SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281630
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONT TO WORK IN
FROM THE NW. SHRA REMAINING WELL OFF THE COAST SO DROPPED POPS
OBX. LOWERED SKY COVER A BIT MORE CST WITH PC SKIES EXPECTED.
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTUREOFFSHORE.
SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KILM 281418
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASUREABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE TODAY AT
10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. DESPITE SOME IFR CIGS SOUTH OF KMYR VFR
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HAVE SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SKIES EXPECTED
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE NE.
THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS OFFSHORE COULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE IS
VERY SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE HOWEVER...WOULD BE KMYR IN THE LATE
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5 KT
OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCE AT KLBT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
.



000
FXUS62 KILM 281418
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...HAVE SLIGHTLY
CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SKY COVER AND TEMPTED TO DO THE SAME
WITH RAIN CHANCES. NEITHER THE 12KM WRF, HRRR, OR RUC BRING ANYTHING
MEASUREABLE ONSHORE. WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO MONITOR CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS FORMATION OF NE RESULTANT SEABREEZE THAT MAY
GRAB AN OFFSHORE SHOWER AND FLING IT ASHORE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
BALD HEAD ISLAND/SOUTHPORT AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE TODAY AT
10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. DESPITE SOME IFR CIGS SOUTH OF KMYR VFR
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HAVE SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SKIES EXPECTED
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE NE.
THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS OFFSHORE COULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE IS
VERY SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE HOWEVER...WOULD BE KMYR IN THE LATE
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5 KT
OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCE AT KLBT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...   AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NE
SURGE OF DRY AIR CONTINUES...POSSIBLY STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT
HANDFUL OF HOURS BUT STARTING TO ABATE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS HAS
GOTTEN WAVE FACES RATHER STEEP BUT NOT QUITE SCEC-WORTHY IN HEIGHT.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
.




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281403
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER
BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281403
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER
BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281403
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER
BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281403
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER
BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281403
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER
BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281403
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 AM FRIDAY...

AREA IS UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC IS EXTENDING IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS... PW UNDER AN INCH...
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER
BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281311
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...CURRENT RDR SHOWS SHRA WELL OFF THE COAST
AND LATEST RAP/HRRR TEND TO KEEP SHRA E OF COAST THRU THE DAY.
BASED ON THIS DROPPED POPS FOR MAJORITY OF CST WITH JUST A BIT
NEAR CAPE HAT. SATL SHOWS MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SO
SIGNIF REDUCED INIT SKY COVER AND LOWERED LATER IN DAY AS WELL
WITH MOST AREAS AVERAGING OUT PC. NO SIGNIF CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH NO CHANGES TO FCST.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281311
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...CURRENT RDR SHOWS SHRA WELL OFF THE COAST
AND LATEST RAP/HRRR TEND TO KEEP SHRA E OF COAST THRU THE DAY.
BASED ON THIS DROPPED POPS FOR MAJORITY OF CST WITH JUST A BIT
NEAR CAPE HAT. SATL SHOWS MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SO
SIGNIF REDUCED INIT SKY COVER AND LOWERED LATER IN DAY AS WELL
WITH MOST AREAS AVERAGING OUT PC. NO SIGNIF CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH NO CHANGES TO FCST.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281311
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...CURRENT RDR SHOWS SHRA WELL OFF THE COAST
AND LATEST RAP/HRRR TEND TO KEEP SHRA E OF COAST THRU THE DAY.
BASED ON THIS DROPPED POPS FOR MAJORITY OF CST WITH JUST A BIT
NEAR CAPE HAT. SATL SHOWS MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SO
SIGNIF REDUCED INIT SKY COVER AND LOWERED LATER IN DAY AS WELL
WITH MOST AREAS AVERAGING OUT PC. NO SIGNIF CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH NO CHANGES TO FCST.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281311
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...CURRENT RDR SHOWS SHRA WELL OFF THE COAST
AND LATEST RAP/HRRR TEND TO KEEP SHRA E OF COAST THRU THE DAY.
BASED ON THIS DROPPED POPS FOR MAJORITY OF CST WITH JUST A BIT
NEAR CAPE HAT. SATL SHOWS MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SO
SIGNIF REDUCED INIT SKY COVER AND LOWERED LATER IN DAY AS WELL
WITH MOST AREAS AVERAGING OUT PC. NO SIGNIF CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH NO CHANGES TO FCST.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KILM 281152
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE TODAY AT
10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. DESPITE SOME IFR CIGS SOUTH OF KMYR VFR
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HAVE SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SKIES EXPECTED
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE NE.
THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS OFFSHORE COULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE IS
VERY SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE HOWEVER...WOULD BE KMYR IN THE LATE
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5 KT
OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCE AT KLBT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
.



000
FXUS62 KILM 281152
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE TODAY AT
10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. DESPITE SOME IFR CIGS SOUTH OF KMYR VFR
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HAVE SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SKIES EXPECTED
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE NE.
THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS OFFSHORE COULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE IS
VERY SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE HOWEVER...WOULD BE KMYR IN THE LATE
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5 KT
OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCE AT KLBT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
.




000
FXUS62 KILM 281152
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE TODAY AT
10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. DESPITE SOME IFR CIGS SOUTH OF KMYR VFR
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HAVE SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SKIES EXPECTED
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE NE.
THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS OFFSHORE COULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE IS
VERY SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE HOWEVER...WOULD BE KMYR IN THE LATE
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5 KT
OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCE AT KLBT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
.




000
FXUS62 KILM 281152
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE TODAY AT
10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. DESPITE SOME IFR CIGS SOUTH OF KMYR VFR
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HAVE SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SKIES EXPECTED
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE NE.
THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS OFFSHORE COULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE IS
VERY SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE HOWEVER...WOULD BE KMYR IN THE LATE
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5 KT
OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCE AT KLBT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
.




000
FXUS62 KILM 281152
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE TODAY AT
10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. DESPITE SOME IFR CIGS SOUTH OF KMYR VFR
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HAVE SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SKIES EXPECTED
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE NE.
THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS OFFSHORE COULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE IS
VERY SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE HOWEVER...WOULD BE KMYR IN THE LATE
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5 KT
OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCE AT KLBT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
.




000
FXUS62 KILM 281152
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
TO THE N OF THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE NE-ENE TODAY AT
10-15 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. DESPITE SOME IFR CIGS SOUTH OF KMYR VFR
WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HAVE SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS THROUGH MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SKIES EXPECTED
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE NE.
THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS OFFSHORE COULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT ALL OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE IS
VERY SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE HOWEVER...WOULD BE KMYR IN THE LATE
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5 KT
OR LESS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCE AT KLBT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
.



000
FXUS62 KILM 281115
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
715 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY REMAINING ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS NEAR
TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE MAIN
EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 15 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281102
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH
ONLY MINIMAL POPS NEAR THE COAST. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FILTER IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
PAMLICO SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A
WEAK LOW CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281102
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH
ONLY MINIMAL POPS NEAR THE COAST. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FILTER IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
PAMLICO SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A
WEAK LOW CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281102
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH
ONLY MINIMAL POPS NEAR THE COAST. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FILTER IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
PAMLICO SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A
WEAK LOW CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281102
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH
ONLY MINIMAL POPS NEAR THE COAST. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FILTER IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
PAMLICO SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A
WEAK LOW CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281046
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DRY DAY WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SE... AND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN NY/PA
NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH DEEPLY DRY AIR FILTERING IN... INCLUDING FALLING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN THROUGH THE 50S... AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES.
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE SE AND THE LACK OF BOTH
FORECAST CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEAK
SHEAR AXIS TO OUR WEST... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... BUT MOST
AREAS ESPECIALLY WEST SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S... VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT FAIR SKIES TONIGHT
WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS AROUND 60-65. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER
BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281046
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DRY DAY WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SE... AND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN NY/PA
NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH DEEPLY DRY AIR FILTERING IN... INCLUDING FALLING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN THROUGH THE 50S... AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES.
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE SE AND THE LACK OF BOTH
FORECAST CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEAK
SHEAR AXIS TO OUR WEST... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... BUT MOST
AREAS ESPECIALLY WEST SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S... VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT FAIR SKIES TONIGHT
WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS AROUND 60-65. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER
BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KILM 280917
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
517 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE
MAIN EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 20 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280917
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
517 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE
MAIN EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

HAVE ALSO GONE WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHERE ANY DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL EITHER STAY
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE ATL WATERS...OR THE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT PUSH N-NE FROM GA WILL SCOUR OUT A GOOD DEAL PRIOR TO PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS SHOULD NOW BE
ENCOMPASSED WITH A STEADY AND MODEST NE WIND. THE SFC PG FROM THE
RIDGING FROM THE 1020+ HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SOLID 15 KT SUSTAINED WIND...EXCEPT INITIALLY 15 TO 20
KT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. LOOKING AT KLTX VWP AND ADJACENT 88D
VWPS...WINDS 1K TO 2K FT OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING NE-ENE AT 20 TO
30 KT. WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20+ WIND
GUSTS. LOOK FOR A SOLID 15 KT NE WIND SPEED TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRIEFLY VEER TO THE ENE-E NEAR SHORE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO A RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 4 FT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD THRU THE PERIOD...AND 2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH THE UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND
SWELL AT 11-12 SECOND PERIODS REMAINING VISUALLY PRESENT. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOMEWHAT STALLED
SFC FRONT...WILL SWITCH TO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
506 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND
JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FILTER
IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A 20
PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDTIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COTINUE ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WHERE WINDS ARE IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE OVER ALL
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
506 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND
JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FILTER
IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A 20
PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDTIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COTINUE ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WHERE WINDS ARE IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE OVER ALL
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
506 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND
JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FILTER
IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A 20
PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDTIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COTINUE ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WHERE WINDS ARE IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE OVER ALL
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KILM 280853
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
453 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE
MAIN EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 280853
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
453 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE
MAIN EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280853
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
453 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE
MAIN EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280853
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
453 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE
MAIN EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280853
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
453 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE
MAIN EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280853
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
453 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HAVE STAYED WITH A DRIER BIAS FOR THIS
NEAR TERM FORECAST...AND KEPT THE THREAT FOR LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THE
MAIN EMPHASIS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MUCH DRIER PICTURE COMPARED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
AIR BETWEEN 350 MB AND 900 MB BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT AND INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SOMEWHAT STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW AND PARALLEL TO
THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
PERIOD. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED THE MODEST 1020+ SFC HIGH
BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO RIDGE OR
NOSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PUSHING DRIER AIR AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. ALREADY OBSERVING WIDESPREAD 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA...ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLY AROUND 60 THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WHERE MIXING OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC MAY OCCUR. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START JUST ALONG AND
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND SWITCH FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER OFF
THE MAINLAND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED SFC
FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MINS EXCEPT NEAR 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. STAYED
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER BIAS FOR TONIGHTS MINS USING THE LATEST
AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 280822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...OTHER THAN A SINGLE SHOWER NEAR
GEORGETOWN SC THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW CONVECTION-FREE. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE MAINTAINING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER INLAND. HRRR
DROPS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 3Z...SO THIS COULD WELL BE IT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FADING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND IS
NOW LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST.
NO LIGHTNING OVER LAND IS NOW IN EVIDENCE. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE AND WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NELY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE EXPECT THAT WE ARE DONE WITH STRONG CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT.
HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...MAXING OUT AT 20 PERCENT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST OFFSHORE...WITH COOL NE
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE
TODAY AS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY PARTIAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOCALLY.
THE COOL NE WIND COMBINED WITH THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGHS FROM
REACHING MUCH OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BENEFIT OF THESE COOLER TEMPS HAS BEEN A LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND HENCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...AND WEAK
IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES INLAND...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. WITH PWATS HIGH AND STORM
MOTION SLOW...SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED FLOODING COULD OCCUR BENEATH
ANY STRONGER SHOWER HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...AND A PRIMARILY DRY EVENING OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST WHERE SHOWERS OVER THE
WATER MAY ADVECT TOWARDS SHORE...AND A 20 POP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FOR CONSISTENCY AND POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP A BIT
FROM A STRAIGHT CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED STRATUS TONIGHT
HOWEVER...BUT LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 68 WELL INLAND...TO NEAR 72
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 280822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...OTHER THAN A SINGLE SHOWER NEAR
GEORGETOWN SC THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW CONVECTION-FREE. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE MAINTAINING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER INLAND. HRRR
DROPS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 3Z...SO THIS COULD WELL BE IT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FADING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND IS
NOW LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST.
NO LIGHTNING OVER LAND IS NOW IN EVIDENCE. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE AND WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NELY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE EXPECT THAT WE ARE DONE WITH STRONG CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT.
HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...MAXING OUT AT 20 PERCENT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST OFFSHORE...WITH COOL NE
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE
TODAY AS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY PARTIAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOCALLY.
THE COOL NE WIND COMBINED WITH THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGHS FROM
REACHING MUCH OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BENEFIT OF THESE COOLER TEMPS HAS BEEN A LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND HENCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...AND WEAK
IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES INLAND...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. WITH PWATS HIGH AND STORM
MOTION SLOW...SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED FLOODING COULD OCCUR BENEATH
ANY STRONGER SHOWER HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...AND A PRIMARILY DRY EVENING OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST WHERE SHOWERS OVER THE
WATER MAY ADVECT TOWARDS SHORE...AND A 20 POP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FOR CONSISTENCY AND POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP A BIT
FROM A STRAIGHT CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED STRATUS TONIGHT
HOWEVER...BUT LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 68 WELL INLAND...TO NEAR 72
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...OTHER THAN A SINGLE SHOWER NEAR
GEORGETOWN SC THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW CONVECTION-FREE. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE MAINTAINING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER INLAND. HRRR
DROPS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 3Z...SO THIS COULD WELL BE IT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FADING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND IS
NOW LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST.
NO LIGHTNING OVER LAND IS NOW IN EVIDENCE. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE AND WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NELY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE EXPECT THAT WE ARE DONE WITH STRONG CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT.
HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...MAXING OUT AT 20 PERCENT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST OFFSHORE...WITH COOL NE
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE
TODAY AS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY PARTIAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOCALLY.
THE COOL NE WIND COMBINED WITH THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGHS FROM
REACHING MUCH OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BENEFIT OF THESE COOLER TEMPS HAS BEEN A LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND HENCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...AND WEAK
IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES INLAND...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. WITH PWATS HIGH AND STORM
MOTION SLOW...SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED FLOODING COULD OCCUR BENEATH
ANY STRONGER SHOWER HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...AND A PRIMARILY DRY EVENING OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST WHERE SHOWERS OVER THE
WATER MAY ADVECT TOWARDS SHORE...AND A 20 POP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FOR CONSISTENCY AND POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP A BIT
FROM A STRAIGHT CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED STRATUS TONIGHT
HOWEVER...BUT LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 68 WELL INLAND...TO NEAR 72
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...OTHER THAN A SINGLE SHOWER NEAR
GEORGETOWN SC THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW CONVECTION-FREE. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE MAINTAINING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER INLAND. HRRR
DROPS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 3Z...SO THIS COULD WELL BE IT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FADING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND IS
NOW LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST.
NO LIGHTNING OVER LAND IS NOW IN EVIDENCE. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE AND WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NELY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE EXPECT THAT WE ARE DONE WITH STRONG CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT.
HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...MAXING OUT AT 20 PERCENT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST OFFSHORE...WITH COOL NE
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE
TODAY AS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY PARTIAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOCALLY.
THE COOL NE WIND COMBINED WITH THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGHS FROM
REACHING MUCH OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BENEFIT OF THESE COOLER TEMPS HAS BEEN A LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND HENCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...AND WEAK
IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES INLAND...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. WITH PWATS HIGH AND STORM
MOTION SLOW...SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED FLOODING COULD OCCUR BENEATH
ANY STRONGER SHOWER HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...AND A PRIMARILY DRY EVENING OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST WHERE SHOWERS OVER THE
WATER MAY ADVECT TOWARDS SHORE...AND A 20 POP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FOR CONSISTENCY AND POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP A BIT
FROM A STRAIGHT CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED STRATUS TONIGHT
HOWEVER...BUT LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 68 WELL INLAND...TO NEAR 72
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...OTHER THAN A SINGLE SHOWER NEAR
GEORGETOWN SC THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW CONVECTION-FREE. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE MAINTAINING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER INLAND. HRRR
DROPS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 3Z...SO THIS COULD WELL BE IT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FADING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND IS
NOW LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST.
NO LIGHTNING OVER LAND IS NOW IN EVIDENCE. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE AND WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NELY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE EXPECT THAT WE ARE DONE WITH STRONG CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT.
HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...MAXING OUT AT 20 PERCENT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST OFFSHORE...WITH COOL NE
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE
TODAY AS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY PARTIAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOCALLY.
THE COOL NE WIND COMBINED WITH THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGHS FROM
REACHING MUCH OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BENEFIT OF THESE COOLER TEMPS HAS BEEN A LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND HENCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...AND WEAK
IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES INLAND...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. WITH PWATS HIGH AND STORM
MOTION SLOW...SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED FLOODING COULD OCCUR BENEATH
ANY STRONGER SHOWER HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...AND A PRIMARILY DRY EVENING OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST WHERE SHOWERS OVER THE
WATER MAY ADVECT TOWARDS SHORE...AND A 20 POP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FOR CONSISTENCY AND POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP A BIT
FROM A STRAIGHT CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED STRATUS TONIGHT
HOWEVER...BUT LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 68 WELL INLAND...TO NEAR 72
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TRACKING THROUGH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...OTHER THAN A SINGLE SHOWER NEAR
GEORGETOWN SC THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW CONVECTION-FREE. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE MAINTAINING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER INLAND. HRRR
DROPS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 3Z...SO THIS COULD WELL BE IT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FADING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND IS
NOW LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST.
NO LIGHTNING OVER LAND IS NOW IN EVIDENCE. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE AND WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NELY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE EXPECT THAT WE ARE DONE WITH STRONG CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT.
HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...MAXING OUT AT 20 PERCENT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST OFFSHORE...WITH COOL NE
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE
TODAY AS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY PARTIAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOCALLY.
THE COOL NE WIND COMBINED WITH THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGHS FROM
REACHING MUCH OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BENEFIT OF THESE COOLER TEMPS HAS BEEN A LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND HENCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...AND WEAK
IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES INLAND...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. WITH PWATS HIGH AND STORM
MOTION SLOW...SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED FLOODING COULD OCCUR BENEATH
ANY STRONGER SHOWER HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...AND A PRIMARILY DRY EVENING OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST WHERE SHOWERS OVER THE
WATER MAY ADVECT TOWARDS SHORE...AND A 20 POP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FOR CONSISTENCY AND POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP A BIT
FROM A STRAIGHT CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED STRATUS TONIGHT
HOWEVER...BUT LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 68 WELL INLAND...TO NEAR 72
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH/OFF SHORE
ON SAT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUN LEAVING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW OFF SHORE ON SAT WILL BEGIN
TO VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN PROVIDING A STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND GUIDANCE SHOWING A DEEPENING OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY. WITH
SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD...EXPECT LIMITED
TO NO SHWR ACTIVITY WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH OVER INLAND NORTH CAROLINA INCREASE
UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVE AND UP CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
BY SUN AFTN IN A SLOW INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A WEAKENED ERIKA REACHING OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT BY NHC AND GUIDANCE IS EVEN FARTHER WEST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THEREFORE
WILL NEED TO ADJUST IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TRENDING DRIER IN OVERALL FORECAST AS LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW ERIKA OVER FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THEN TAKING A
TURN IN GEORGIA OR POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A GREATER EXTENDED EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW KEPT WITH LOWER
END CHC POPS AND WITH GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ERIKA STILL EXPECTED
MID WEEK...WED INTO THURS. IF ERIKA DOES TAKE A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH
MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME GUSTY ON SHORE WINDS AND
EXTENDED SWELL ENERGY PRODUCING SOME COASTAL IMPACTS BUT WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CERTAINTY. LATEST GFS KEEPS PCP WATER VALUES LOWER THAN 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD OVER NC WITH VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 2
INCHES ON NORTHERN STRETCH OF ERIKA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS BUT
TRACK WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AS SHE MAKES HER
WEST NORTHWEST. THE GFS WANTS TO PULL ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST
GETTING PULLED BY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL WENT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A BIT LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAISED MAX TEMPS A
BIT...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY OFF SHORE. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY ON
SHORE DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARY AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. LATEST FORECAST TRACKS
WEAKENED ERIKA OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY REACHING INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BASICALLY REMAINING 2 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LATEST FORECAST TRACKS ERIKA OVER FLORIDA
AND KEEPS TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME GETTING PULLED BY MID TO
UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. MAY SEE WINDS REMAIN E-NE ONLY
RISING UP TO 15 KTS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MAINLY EAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A DIMINISHING LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280805 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DRY DAY WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SE... AND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN NY/PA
NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH DEEPLY DRY AIR FILTERING IN... INCLUDING FALLING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN THROUGH THE 50S... AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES.
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE SE AND THE LACK OF BOTH
FORECAST CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEAK
SHEAR AXIS TO OUR WEST... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... BUT MOST
AREAS ESPECIALLY WEST SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S... VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT FAIR SKIES TONIGHT
WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS AROUND 60-65. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A
RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280805 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DRY DAY WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SE... AND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN NY/PA
NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH DEEPLY DRY AIR FILTERING IN... INCLUDING FALLING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN THROUGH THE 50S... AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES.
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE SE AND THE LACK OF BOTH
FORECAST CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEAK
SHEAR AXIS TO OUR WEST... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... BUT MOST
AREAS ESPECIALLY WEST SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S... VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT FAIR SKIES TONIGHT
WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS AROUND 60-65. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE
(DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...AND THE RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A
RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DRY DAY WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SE... AND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN NY/PA
NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH DEEPLY DRY AIR FILTERING IN... INCLUDING FALLING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN THROUGH THE 50S... AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES.
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE SE AND THE LACK OF BOTH
FORECAST CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEAK
SHEAR AXIS TO OUR WEST... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... BUT MOST
AREAS ESPECIALLY WEST SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY.
THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S... VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT FAIR SKIES TONIGHT
WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS AROUND 60-65. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY
IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING
THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1
INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW
HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND
ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE
WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE
WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH
A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH
THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF OUT-PACING THE PREFERRED
AMERICAN MODELS BY 6-12 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
NORTHEASTERN EXTENT INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN SW FLOW AND A WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SHOULD PROVE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INVOF THE YADKIN RIVER
AND ESPECIALLY WEST/IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR A
STILL RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PIEDMONT...AS THE S/W TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NC. NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND EFFECTIVELY
CAUSE THE PATTERN ALOFT TO RETROGRADE (DISCONTINUOUSLY)...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BULGE WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SEPARATE RIDGE ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND THE
RESULT IN RECENT MODEL RUNS IS A SLOWER AND MORE WEST AND SOUTHWARD
SUPPRESSED TRACK OF ERIKA.

ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OR AFFECTS ON CENTRAL NC WOULD
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID-WEEK...AND EVEN THAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
ON 1) ERIKA NOT DISSIPATING ENTIRELY AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND 2)
THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING THE
SYSTEM --OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT-- SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MINIMAL AFFECT FROM ERIKA...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMO FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHT-CHANCE DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUD