000
FXUS62 KMHX 182236
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
636 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND..

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING. NO CHANGE IN CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR FORECAST
AREA.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT. FRONT THAT WAS
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WET LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM SAT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOIST AIR TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY INCREASING SO WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACHES 2 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING ON
TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TAKING ON A
MORE STRATIFORM CHARACTER WITH MUCH COOLER AIR PLUNGING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
TAFS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...CURRENT OBS SHOW LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNSET WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED WIND AND SEAS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SSW FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BORDERLINE SCA
SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT JUST
BELOW PER LATEST WAVE MODELS. LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/CTC
MARINE...HSA/CGG/CTC

000
FXUS62 KILM 181912
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH DAY AND NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR MIDDLE MAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK...BRINGING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MANNER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE SREF IS AGGRESSIVE ON QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY
0000 UTC AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FREE OF ACTIVITY AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND THE DISPLACEMENT FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING TAKES ITS
TOLL. THERE REMAINS A DEFINITE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY
SO I HAVE INCREMENTALLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LACK OF THUNDER PROBABLY WARRANTS A CHANGE IN WEATHER TYPE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER BEING MORE APPROPRIATE.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND NO WEAK FRONTS AROUND TO DISTORT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES THAN MOS IS ADVERTISING APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST STRATEGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BATCHES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS TWISTING AND CURLING WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COLUMN MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE AND
WE MAY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF H7 COOLING AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE A LARGER DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION BREWS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SCATTERED TO
LIKELY POP VALUES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THESE ANTICIPATED
INGREDIENTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE KEEPING
NIGHT TIME READINGS VERY MILD. AN H7 COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND-SHIFT AND DRYING ALOFT LATE MONDAY AND HAVE TAPERED POP VALUES
INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS/QPF BOTH DAYS ADDS UP
TO A 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...AND POTENTIALLY 1-2
INCHES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND FAR INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS
WILL BE WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PRONOUNCED SHEAR AXIS.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT ALREADY OFFSHORE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER
QUIET AFTERNOON WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
ALONG THE COAST FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION.
GIVEN HOW WEAK THE FLOW IS WILL SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS. WITH THIS
FEATURE OUT OF THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY EXPECT A FURTHER WARMUP AND
MERELY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW FROM ANY ACTIVITY FROM THE PRIOR AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL
UPTICK IN MID LEVEL SWRLY FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF TROUGINESS
STRENGTHENING OVER OH/UPPER MS VALLEYS. THURSDAY THUS BEGINS AN
UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN. THE
ACTUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND IMPACT THE INLAND TERMINALS DIRECTLY AND AFFECT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
THE PERIOD FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AT LBT/FLO.  LINGERING CLOUDS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRIGGERING THE STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT.  OUTSIDE STORMS...S TO SW
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS IS THE SEA BREEZE AND THIS IS TYPICAL OF A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THROUGH
850MB...SHOW ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 16
KNOTS...UP FROM ABOUT TEN KNOTS. THIS WILL WARRANT AN INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST TO A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE FROM AROUND TWO FEET TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT NO HEADLINES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 4 FT SEAS WILL
MARK A GOOD PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST TOWARD THE COAST AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND INTERACT. SEAS WILL BE COMPOSED OF GROWING S WAVES
WITH PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS AND LOW-AMPLITUDE ESE SWELL WAVES.
MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER GETTING A FIX ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
HEADING OUT SINCE TSTMS MAY DOT THE WATERS...FAVORED MOSTLY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERVADE THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE
NORTH. THIS COULD ALSO STEER JUST ENOUGH SWELL ENERGY INTO THE
REGION TO BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR TWO.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RAN/SHK

000
FXUS62 KILM 181908
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH DAY AND NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR MIDDLE MAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK...BRINGING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MANNER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE SREF IS AGGRESSIVE ON QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY
0000 UTC AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FREE OF ACTIVITY AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND THE DISPLACEMENT FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING TAKES ITS
TOLL. THERE REMAINS A DEFINITE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY
SO I HAVE INCREMENTALLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LACK OF THUNDER PROBABLY WARRANTS A CHANGE IN WEATHER TYPE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER BEING MORE APPROPRIATE.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND NO WEAK FRONTS AROUND TO DISTORT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES THAN MOS IS ADVERTISING APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST STRATEGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BATCHES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS TWISTING AND CURLING WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COLUMN MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE AND
WE MAY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF H7 COOLING AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE A LARGER DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION BREWS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SCATTERED TO
LIKELY POP VALUES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THESE ANTICIPATED
INGREDIENTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE KEEP NIGHT
TIME READINGS VERY MILD. AN H7 COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND-SHIFT
AND DRYING ALOFT LATE MONDAY AND HAVE TAPERED POP VALUES INTO VERY
EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS/QPF BOTH DAYS ADDS UP TO A
1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...AND POTENTIALLY 1-2
INCHES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND FAR INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS
WILL BE WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PRONOUNCED SHEAR AXIS.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT ALREADY OFFSHORE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER
QUIET AFTERNOON WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
ALONG THE COAST FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION.
GIVEN HOW WEAK THE FLOW IS WILL SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS. WITH THIS
FEATURE OUT OF THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY EXPECT A FURTHER WARMUP AND
MERELY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW FROM ANY ACTIVITY FROM THE PRIOR AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL
UPTICK IN MID LEVEL SWRLY FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF TROUGINESS
STRENGTHENING OVER OH/UPPER MS VALLEYS. THURSDAY THUS BEGINS AN
UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN. THE
ACTUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND IMPACT THE INLAND TERMINALS DIRECTLY AND AFFECT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
THE PERIOD FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AT LBT/FLO.  LINGERING CLOUDS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRIGGERING THE STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT.  OUTSIDE STORMS...S TO SW
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS IS THE SEA BREEZE AND THIS IS TYPICAL OF A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THROUGH
850MB...SHOW ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 16
KNOTS...UP FROM ABOUT TEN KNOTS. THIS WILL WARRANT AN INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST TO A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE FROM AROUND TWO FEET TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT NO HEADLINES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 4 FT SEAS WILL
MARK A GOOD PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST TOWARD THE COAST AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND INTERACT. SEAS WILL BE COMPOSED OF GROWING S WAVES
WITH PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS AND LOW-AMPLITUDE ESE SWELL WAVES.
MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER GETTING A FIX ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
HEADING OUT SINCE TSTMS MAY DOT THE WATERS...FAVORED MOSTLY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERVADE THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE
NORTH. THIS COULD ALSO STEER JUST ENOUGH SWELL ENERGY INTO THE
REGION TO BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR TWO.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RAN/SHK

000
FXUS62 KRAH 181859
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS...MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY
SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
TODAY....AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...WITH A POOL OF 1.6-1.8" PWATS (2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL)BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THERE WILL NOT BE A SHORTAGE OF FORCING MECHANISMS WITH THE
INTERACTION OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAKING FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ...DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING
OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION... THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S
SEABREEZE...AND EXPECTATIONS OF ANOTHER ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE BEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR
OF 20KTS OF LESS SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/PULSE STORMS THAT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY THREAT COULD BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS.
MODELS SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE REALLY SHEARING APART
APART...WHILE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS
IN THE WEST AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.


SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
A LOT OF SIMILARITIES BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY...MINUS THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD INITIALLY BE GREATEST IN THE WEST WITH
THE ENCROACHING REMNANTS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PEAKING DURING DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
SUSTAIN ITSELF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ACTUALLY SUGGEST LESS INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY..HINDERED PERHAPS
BY MORE ROBUST CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR OF 15KTS
OF LESS...EXPECT DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS TO RENDER A NON-ZERO
SEVERE THREAT. A HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF
HWY 64) TO MID 70S W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
PERVASIVE. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 1.75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY...SOME MINOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN
AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT...WITH GENERALLY LOWER 80S
EXPECTED.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
START TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALL OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
DRYING...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR SO.
THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH AN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
(BUT WILL STILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS
REACHED)...WITH POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

AREA OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AT KINT INVOF OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE THREAT OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 181756
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
156 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 133 PM SAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT. FRONT THAT
WAS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH WET LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE RANGE TONIGHT. BIGGEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM SAT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOIST AIR TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY INCREASING SO WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACHES 2 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING ON
TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TAKING ON A
MORE STRATIFORM CHARACTER WITH MUCH COOLER AIR PLUNGING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM SAT...SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER TAFS.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH
EASTERLY WIND OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNSET WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOOSE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED WIND AND SEAS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
NO FLAGS EXPECTED.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SSW FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BORDERLINE SCA
SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT JUST
BELOW PER LATEST WAVE MODELS. LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC

000
FXUS62 KRAH 181746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
 A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...

A BAGGY MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS...MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.  IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY....AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A POOL OF
1.6-1.8" PWATS (2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS.

THERE WILL NOT BE A SHORTAGE OF FORCING MECHANISMS TODAY WITH
THE INTERACTION OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAKING
FOR AN ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER DAY. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM INDIVIDUAL S/W DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ...DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND AIDED BY
SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION... THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND EXPECTATIONS OF ANOTHER
ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR
OF 20KTS OF LESS SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/PULSE STORMS THAT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY THREAT COULD BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS.

TEMPERATURES...WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF
HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH TIME... WITH THE HIGHEST POP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LIKELY TO BE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH NEAR 80... BUT CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WHEN
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

AREA OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AT KINT INVOF OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE THREAT OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 181739
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM SAT...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NC. SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE INLAND COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM SAT...SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER TAFS.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1022 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS HATTERAS NORTH AND S
WINDS AOB 10 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S
10-15 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD

000
FXUS62 KILM 181727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MANNER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE SREF IS AGGRESSIVE ON QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY
0000 UTC AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FREE OF ACTIVITY AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND THE DISPLACEMENT FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING TAKES ITS
TOLL. THERE REMAINS A DEFINITE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY
SO I HAVE INCREMENTALLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LACK OF THUNDER PROBABLY WARRANTS A CHANGE IN WEATHER TYPE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER BEING MORE APPROPRIATE.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND NO WEAK FRONTS AROUND TO DISTORT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES THAN MOS IS ADVERTISING APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST STRATEGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND IMPACT THE INLAND TERMINALS DIRECTLY AND AFFECT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
THE PERIOD FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AT LBT/FLO.  LINGERING CLOUDS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRIGGERING THE STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT.  OUTSIDE STORMS...S TO SW
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SATURDAY...THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS IS THE SEA BREEZE AND THIS IS TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THROUGH 850MB...SHOW
ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 16 KNOTS...UP FROM ABOUT
TEN KNOTS. THIS WILL WARRANT AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST TO A RANGE
OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
FROM AROUND TWO FEET TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN

000
FXUS62 KILM 181452
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1052 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WESTERN ZONES THE FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS BROAD
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SHOULD PROVIDE THE CATALYST. NO CHANGES TO
POPS...WHICH REPRESENT THE CURRENT TRENDS WELL OR EXPECTED MAX
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AFTER ANY RESIDUAL MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THIS
AM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD.  THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
AT LBT/FLO.  AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH THE EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS.  WINDS SHOULD BE S TO
SW 5 TO 10 KT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH SIX KNOTS AND JUST OVER TWO FEET
AT 41013. NO CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH SEAS TWO FEET OR SO. ANY CONVECTION
THAT MAY DISTORT WINDS TEMPORARILY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN

000
FXUS62 KMHX 181421
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM SAT...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NC. SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE INLAND COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z OTRW
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT SPLY ACROSS AREAS RECEIVING RAFL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1022 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS HATTERAS NORTH AND S
WINDS AOB 10 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S
10-15 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 181344
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
943 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...

A BAGGY MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS...MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.  IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY....AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A POOL OF
1.6-1.8" PWATS (2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS.

THERE WILL NOT BE A SHORTAGE OF FORCING MECHANISMS TODAY WITH
THE INTERACTION OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAKING
FOR AN ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER DAY. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM INDIVIDUAL S/W DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ...DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND AIDED BY
SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION... THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND EXPECTATIONS OF ANOTHER
ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR
OF 20KTS OF LESS SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/PULSE STORMS THAT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY THREAT COULD BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS.

TEMPERATURES...WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF
HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH TIME... WITH THE HIGHEST POP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LIKELY TO BE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH NEAR 80... BUT CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WHEN
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

AREA OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND IMPACTING KINT HAS DEVELOPED INVOF THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE. EXPECT THESE CEILING TO LIFT TO VFR BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR IN LINGERING
SHOWERS.


LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KILM 181139
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH. FLOW AT PRESENT IS ACTUALLY
MAINLY FROM THE SW...BUT A SLIGHT RE- ORIENTATION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN EXTRA KICK INLAND TO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL START DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUS BRINGING WITH IT A GREATER
MARINE INFLUENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
RECENTLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL STILL COME IN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ODDS WILL REMAIN MODEST IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ADVANCES UPON THE AREA. MOST
PLACES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AFTER ANY RESIDUAL MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THIS
AM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD.  THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
AT LBT/FLO.  AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH THE EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS.  WINDS SHOULD BE S TO
SW 5 TO 10 KT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL
TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR-SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BRINGS NEAR-SHORE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT 2 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD GET
CHOPPY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...RAN

000
FXUS62 KRAH 181041
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
641 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TN/KY AT 06Z THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY
INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 06Z WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN TN/KY
OR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUN. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PRECIP CHANCES:
EXPECT AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOC/W THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND PRIMARILY
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE (INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT)
LATER THIS AFT/EVE. SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...
THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND A LINGERING (ALBEIT
WEAK) FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE REMNANT BOUNDARIES...A ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
COVERAGE IN EAST/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES MID/LATE AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM 50-60% IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT TO 30% IN THE EAST/SE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM
60-70% WEST TO 40% EAST. 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING ALONG...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN INSUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (15 KT OR LESS) AND LOW DCAPE.

TEMPERATURES:
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST
EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH TIME... WITH THE HIGHEST POP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LIKELY TO BE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH NEAR 80... BUT CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WHEN
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY IN VICINITY
OF THE INTS/GSO TERMINASL. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 181016
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH. FLOW AT PRESENT IS ACTUALLY
MAINLY FROM THE SW...BUT A SLIGHT RE- ORIENTATION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN EXTRA KICK INLAND TO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL START DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUS BRINGING WITH IT A GREATER
MARINE INFLUENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
RECENTLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL STILL COME IN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ODDS WILL REMAIN MODEST IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ADVANCES UPON THE AREA. MOST
PLACES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBT/KFLO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12 KTS. ISOLATED
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PCPN IN
THE TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL
TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR-SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BRINGS NEAR-SHORE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT 2 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD GET
CHOPPY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW

000
FXUS62 KMHX 181011
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
611 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WILL CONT ACROSS
NRN SXNS THIS MORN INVOF OF FRONT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
ON UPDATE. INCREASED POPS SOME AND STARTED TSRA SOONER AT 16Z.

PREV DISC...WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A
SELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST CHC
POPS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS NRN AREAS INVOF OF THE FRONT AND DURG
MAX HTG. SLGTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER MOCLDY SKIES. HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE MID 70S TO ARND 80
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z OTRW
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT SPLY ACROSS AREAS RECEIVING RAFL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS HATTERAS NORTH AND S
WINDS AOB 10 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S
10-15 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180753
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TN/KY AT 06Z THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY
INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 06Z WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN TN/KY
OR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUN. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PRECIP CHANCES:
EXPECT AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOC/W THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND PRIMARILY
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE (INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT)
LATER THIS AFT/EVE. SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...
THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND A LINGERING (ALBEIT
WEAK) FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE REMNANT BOUNDARIES...A ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
COVERAGE IN EAST/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES MID/LATE AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM 50-60% IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT TO 30% IN THE EAST/SE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM
60-70% WEST TO 40% EAST. 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING ALONG...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN INSUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (15 KT OR LESS) AND LOW DCAPE.

TEMPERATURES:
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST
EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH TIME... WITH THE HIGHEST POP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LIKELY TO BE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH NEAR 80... BUT CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WHEN
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 180735
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH. FLOW AT
PRESENT IS ACTUALLY MAINLY FROM THE SW...BUT A SLIGHT RE-ORIENTATION
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN EXTRA KICK INLAND
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL START DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING. AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUS BRINGING WITH IT A
GREATER MARINE INFLUENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
RECENTLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL STILL COME IN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ODDS WILL REMAIN MODEST IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ADVANCES UPON THE AREA. MOST
PLACES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBT/KFLO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12 KTS. ISOLATED
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PCPN IN
THE TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR-SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BRINGS NEAR-SHORE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15
KTS. SEAS WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT 2 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD GET CHOPPY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK
MARINE...REK/JDW

000
FXUS62 KMHX 180722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
LATE TODAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN
SXNS EARLY THIS MORN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SHRA.
WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A SELY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST CHC POPS TODAY WILL
BE ACROSS NRN AREAS INVOF OF THE FRONT AND DURG MAX HTG. SLGTLY
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER MOCLDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE MID 70S TO ARND 80 IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH TODAY WITH WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z OTRW PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS OCRACOKE NORTH
AND SE 10 KT TO THE SOUTH WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S 10-15
KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT UP TO
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180720
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TN/KY AT 06Z THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY
INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 06Z WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN TN/KY
OR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUN. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PRECIP CHANCES:
EXPECT AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOC/W THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND PRIMARILY
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE (INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT)
LATER THIS AFT/EVE. SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...
THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND A LINGERING (ALBEIT
WEAK) FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE REMNANT BOUNDARIES...A ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
COVERAGE IN EAST/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES MID/LATE AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM 50-60% IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT TO 30% IN THE EAST/SE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM
60-70% WEST TO 40% EAST. 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING ALONG...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN INSUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (15 KT OR LESS) AND LOW DCAPE.

TEMPERATURES:
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST
EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80... BUT
CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TN/KY AT 06Z THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY
INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 06Z WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN TN/KY
OR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUN. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PRECIP CHANCES:
EXPECT AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOC/W THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND PRIMARILY
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE (INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT)
LATER THIS AFT/EVE. SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...
THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND A LINGERING (ALBEIT
WEAK) FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE REMNANT BOUNDARIES...A ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
COVERAGE IN EAST/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES MID/LATE AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM 50-60% IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT TO 30% IN THE EAST/SE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM
60-70% WEST TO 40% EAST. 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING ALONG...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN INSUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (15 KT OR LESS) AND LOW DCAPE.

TEMPERATURES:
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST
EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80... BUT
CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180648
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...

THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHED NORTHEASTERN NC EARLIER TODAY HAS
ESSENTIALLY STALLED...AND CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRIMARILY FOCUSED
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...AND
HAS DRIFTED NORTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED...WITH THE
STRONGEST CELL OVER EASTERN WAYNE NOW DRIFTING EAST SINCE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE SEABREEZE.  DESPITE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING (PW UP TO 1.25")...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT/MOISTENING TO TAP INTO THE
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD RESIDE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.  THE REMNANT VORTEX FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN US
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NC OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST NOT TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE
UNTIL SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN NC TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO AID ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PRIMARILY TOWARD
09-12Z.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVERNIGHT WITH VARIOUS
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES LINGERING...AND BRING IN A LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 12Z.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THOUGH IF PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY
OVER EASTERN AREAS.  LOWS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS..THOUGH SOME LOWER 60S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST IF
CLEARING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING VARIOUS WRF OUTPUT...ON A LARGE
SCALE...MEAN RH INCREASES TO A MAXIMUM DURING THE PERIOD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND TO ABOUT U.S. 1
OR SO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...850MB THETA-E IS GREATEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT
FOCUSED OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEST
COMPARED TO EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...INSTEAD OF
TRYING TO INTERPRET THE VARIETY OF WRF TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARD LARGE-SCALE FEATURES.
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BECOMING LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO
AROUND U.S. 1 BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLOSER TO 850MB LOW PRESSURE.
THE LEAST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ...WHERE OVERALL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LEAST...CLOSER ALSO TO THE 850MB RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE. THE GFS HAS FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE AROUND 0.75
INCH FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY   THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80... BUT
CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 180604
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
204 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2:00 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN A ROUGHLY CAPE LOOKOUT TO RDU
LINE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED BY THE KLTX 88D ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS LINE...WITH MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE ILM CWA. WITH A
LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE ILM CWA...DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...POPS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OVERNITE
FORECAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE PATCHY
GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS DUE TO HIER...60+...DEWPOINTS HAVING
ADVECTED ACROSS THE FA...AND WITH WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING FOR
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBT/KFLO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12 KTS. ISOLATED
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PCPN IN
THE TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
LOOKOUT THIS EVENING...AND WILL BEGIN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS HAS NEARLY DECAYED IN ITS ENTIRETY. THIS LEAVES
RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH TO RESUME PRIMARY CONTROL
OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT TO
YIELD MAINLY A SW WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 10-15 KT ILM SC
WATERS. THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR MAY ACTUALLY OBSERVE 5 KT OR
LESS DUE TO THE FRONTS PROXIMITY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH ITS MAKE-UP A COMBINATION OF A 1.0 TO 1.5
FOOT SE GROUNDSWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND LOCALLY PRODUCED 4
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...DCH/MJC/REK/MBB

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...

THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHED NORTHEASTERN NC EARLIER TODAY HAS
ESSENTIALLY STALLED...AND CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRIMARILY FOCUSED
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...AND
HAS DRIFTED NORTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED...WITH THE
STRONGEST CELL OVER EASTERN WAYNE NOW DRIFTING EAST SINCE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE SEABREEZE.  DESPITE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING (PW UP TO 1.25")...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT/MOISTENING TO TAP INTO THE
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD RESIDE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.  THE REMNANT VORTEX FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN US
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NC OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST NOT TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE
UNTIL SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN NC TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO AID ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PRIMARILY TOWARD
09-12Z.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVERNIGHT WITH VARIOUS
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES LINGERING...AND BRING IN A LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 12Z.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THOUGH IF PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY
OVER EASTERN AREAS.  LOWS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS..THOUGH SOME LOWER 60S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST IF
CLEARING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING VARIOUS WRF OUTPUT...ON A LARGE
SCALE...MEAN RH INCREASES TO A MAXIMUM DURING THE PERIOD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND TO ABOUT U.S. 1
OR SO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...850MB THETA-E IS GREATEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT
FOCUSED OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEST
COMPARED TO EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...INSTEAD OF
TRYING TO INTERPRET THE VARIETY OF WRF TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARD LARGE-SCALE FEATURES.
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BECOMING LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO
AROUND U.S. 1 BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLOSER TO 850MB LOW PRESSURE.
THE LEAST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ...WHERE OVERALL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LEAST...CLOSER ALSO TO THE 850MB RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE. THE GFS HAS FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE AROUND 0.75
INCH FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT H850 A TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO TN AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH FROM AN OFFSHORE HIGH. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE STRENGTH AND CHARACTER OF THE SHORTWAVE LOW...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE TWO. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND
DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN SD...EXTENDING SSE
THROUGH CENTRAL OK/TX...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WARM MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FUELING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN
THE WEAK STEERING FLOW EXPECTED. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE IS OF THE
TALL AND SKINNY VARIETY...WITH VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF MAINLY 10-20
KTS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FROM POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HAVE DECREASED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS STILL LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONTINUE
TO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS. A MIDWEST LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME AND THE TROUGH
BECOMES ORIENTED MORE SW TO NE...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION MOVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...DECREASING AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KMHX 180516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
116 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM LATE
SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM SATURDAY...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
NERN SXNS EARLY THIS MORN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY SHRA.
NO SIG CHANGES.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TO THE
US64 CORRIDOR PROVIDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
MODELS NOT BEST AS IT HAS BEEN OVERDOING PCPN OF LATE BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATION ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLS AS WEAK TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS INLAND AND NRN TIER
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BETTER INSTABILITY SO EXPECTING A BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW WITH MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE ON MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY AND NO POP FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AGAIN POPS
RAMPING UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING NRN RTES...ALONG THE US64/264
CORRIDORS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND WEAK
TROUGHING APPROACH FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
LIGHT FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PCPN THIS EVENING. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DROPS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORN WITH ELY
FLOW MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS OCRACOKE NORTH AND SE FLOW AOB 10 KT TO
THE SOUTH WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FEATURE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND MOST DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. PER
LATEST WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS...WAVES SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE...BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC/HSA/SK
MARINE...JAC/CTC/HSA/SK

000
FXUS62 KILM 180357
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1157 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM FRIDAY...CONTINUED TO MODIFY SFC PARAMETERS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECAYING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE FA.
AND AS BEFORE...MESHED THESE CHANGES WITH THE ONGOING SAT PRE-
DAWN HR FORECAST. THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN A
ROUGHLY CAPE LOOKOUT TO RDU LINE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED
BY THE KLTX 88D ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE...WITH MOVEMENT AWAY
FROM THE ILM CWA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE ILM CWA...
DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...POPS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OVERNITE FORECAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE PATCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS DUE
TO HIER...60+...DEWPOINTS HAVING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FA...AND
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING FOR SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
ENHANCED NEAR SFC WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS INLAND...KLBT/KFLO...ALONG WITH FOG-PRONE KCRE. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN HOURS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM FRIDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT THIS EVENING...AND WILL BEGIN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS NEARLY DECAYED IN ITS ENTIRETY. THIS
LEAVES RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH TO RESUME PRIMARY
CONTROL OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT TO YIELD MAINLY A SW WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY
10-15 KT ILM SC WATERS. THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR MAY ACTUALLY
OBSERVE 5 KT OR LESS DUE TO THE FRONTS PROXIMITY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH ITS MAKE-UP A COMBINATION
OF A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT SE GROUNDSWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND
LOCALLY PRODUCED 4 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KMHX 180210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM LATE
SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...ONLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST PLAIN LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TO THE US64 CORRIDOR
PROVIDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS NOT BEST
AS IT HAS BEEN OVERDOING PCPN OF LATE BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLT
CHC/CHC POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATION ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLS AS WEAK TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS INLAND AND NRN TIER
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BETTER INSTABILITY SO EXPECTING A BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW WITH MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE ON MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY AND NO POP FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AGAIN POPS
RAMPING UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING NRN RTES...ALONG THE US64/264
CORRIDORS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND WEAK
TROUGHING APPROACH FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
LIGHT FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PCPN THIS EVENING. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DROPS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH ELY FLOW MAINLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OCRACOKE NORTH AND SE FLOW AOB 10 KT TO THE SOUTH WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FEATURE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND MOST DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. PER
LATEST WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS...WAVES SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE...BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/SK/CTC
MARINE...HSA/SK/CTC

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180202
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN NC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA ON SUNDAY...BENEATH A TROUGH ALOFT THAT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...

THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHED NORTHEASTERN NC EARLIER TODAY HAS
ESSENTIALLY STALLED...AND CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRIMARILY FOCUSED
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...AND
HAS DRIFTED NORTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED...WITH THE
STRONGEST CELL OVER EASTERN WAYNE NOW DRIFTING EAST SINCE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE SEABREEZE.  DESPITE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING (PW UP TO 1.25")...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT/MOISTENING TO TAP INTO THE
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD RESIDE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.  THE REMNANT VORTEX FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN US
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NC OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST NOT TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE
UNTIL SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN NC TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO AID ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PRIMARILY TOWARD
09-12Z.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVERNIGHT WITH VARIOUS
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES LINGERING...AND BRING IN A LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 12Z.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THOUGH IF PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY
OVER EASTERN AREAS.  LOWS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS..THOUGH SOME LOWER 60S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST IF
CLEARING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING VARIOUS WRF OUTPUT...ON A LARGE
SCALE...MEAN RH INCREASES TO A MAXIMUM DURING THE PERIOD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND TO ABOUT U.S. 1
OR SO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...850MB THETA-E IS GREATEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT
FOCUSED OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEST
COMPARED TO EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...INSTEAD OF
TRYING TO INTERPRET THE VARIETY OF WRF TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARD LARGE-SCALE FEATURES.
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BECOMING LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO
AROUND U.S. 1 BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLOSER TO 850MB LOW PRESSURE.
THE LEAST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ...WHERE OVERALL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LEAST...CLOSER ALSO TO THE 850MB RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE. THE GFS HAS FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE AROUND 0.75
INCH FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT H850 A TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO TN AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH FROM AN OFFSHORE HIGH. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE STRENGTH AND CHARACTER OF THE SHORTWAVE LOW...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE TWO. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND
DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN SD...EXTENDING SSE
THROUGH CENTRAL OK/TX...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WARM MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FUELING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN
THE WEAK STEERING FLOW EXPECTED. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE IS OF THE
TALL AND SKINNY VARIETY...WITH VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF MAINLY 10-20
KTS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FROM POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HAVE DECREASED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS STILL LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONTINUE
TO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS. A MIDWEST LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME AND THE TROUGH
BECOMES ORIENTED MORE SW TO NE...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION MOVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...DECREASING AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE FOLLOWING THREE RELATIVELY SHORT-DURATION
EXCEPTIONS: 1) VICINITY SHOWERS AT TRIAD TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO... 2) MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SAT MORNING...
PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE VICINITY OF TRIAD
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND 3) A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING...WITH THE RELATIVE
HIGHEST CHANCE/COVERAGE NORTH OF KFAY.  THOUGH THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE SCATTERED ABOUT SAT AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MULTI-HOUR PREVAILING
CONDITION OF SUCH AT THIS TIME RANGE.  -MWS

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE...BECOMING LIKELY IN THE TRIAD BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING AT LEAST TO KRDU BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALONG WITH THE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BRING...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST TOWARD KINT AND KGSO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF THOSE
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. PERIODS
OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...OR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER MIXING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  -DJF

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MWS/DJF

000
FXUS62 KILM 180020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
820 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...MODIFIED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS ACROSS THE
ILM CWA DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND ITS EXTENT INLAND.
THIS WAS DONE PRIMARILY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...THEN
MESHING THESE CHANGED METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS WITH THE GOING
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION..THE LATEST KLTX 88D
INDICATES NO ECHOES ACROSS THE FA...AND THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ALL
POPS THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A LACK
OF FORCING... DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...ALL POINTING NEGATIVE FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FA
OVERNIGHT. THE FA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
WHICH IS PROGGED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE PATCHY GROUND FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP
AND GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF
WHICH THE FORCING INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
ENHANCED NEAR SFC WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS INLAND...KLBT/KFLO...ALONG WITH FOG-PRONE KCRE. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN HOURS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...MODELS PROG THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL DECAY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THIS
LEAVES RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH TO RESUME PRIMARY
CONTROL OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT TO YIELD SSW 10-15 KT WINDS TO VEER TO SW AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
OCCASIONALLY 3 FT. SIG. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF A 1.0 TO
1.5 FOOT SE GROUNDSWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND LOCALLY PRODUCED
4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180019
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
819 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN NC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA ON SUNDAY...BENEATH A TROUGH ALOFT THAT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND OHIO...THEN BENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
COASTAL PLAIN...INSTABILITY WAS HIGHEST WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500J/KG ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE WAS MEAGER...AND WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD
YET TO FALL AS FAR AS THE RAP FORECAST...THEY STILL HAVE FALLEN
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S OVER MOST PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OUTPUT
OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...AND CONSIDERING THE NAM APPEARS
SO OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH ITS FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE RAP AND GFS OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE BETTER CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT KTDF TO KRWI. THIS IS WHERE THE RAP SHOWS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING AROUND AND AFTER 00Z...SUPPORTED MOST BY THE LOCAL
RALEIGH WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. IN THE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT IN PARTICULAR...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN ONLY NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER THERE AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE
NAM...ARE QUITE HIGH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE NAM ALSO FORECASTS SURFACE
DEW POINTS GETTING NEAR 70 OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY
21Z...WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY. UNDER A CONTINUING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING EAST...WILL ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL
REDUCTION IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING VARIOUS WRF OUTPUT...ON A LARGE
SCALE...MEAN RH INCREASES TO A MAXIMUM DURING THE PERIOD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND TO ABOUT U.S. 1
OR SO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...850MB THETA-E IS GREATEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT
FOCUSED OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEST
COMPARED TO EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...INSTEAD OF
TRYING TO INTERPRET THE VARIETY OF WRF TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARD LARGE-SCALE FEATURES.
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BECOMING LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO
AROUND U.S. 1 BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLOSER TO 850MB LOW PRESSURE.
THE LEAST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ...WHERE OVERALL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LEAST...CLOSER ALSO TO THE 850MB RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE. THE GFS HAS FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE AROUND 0.75
INCH FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT H850 A TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO TN AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH FROM AN OFFSHORE HIGH. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE STRENGTH AND CHARACTER OF THE SHORTWAVE LOW...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE TWO. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND
DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN SD...EXTENDING SSE
THROUGH CENTRAL OK/TX...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WARM MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FUELING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN
THE WEAK STEERING FLOW EXPECTED. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE IS OF THE
TALL AND SKINNY VARIETY...WITH VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF MAINLY 10-20
KTS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FROM POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HAVE DECREASED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS STILL LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONTINUE
TO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS. A MIDWEST LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME AND THE TROUGH
BECOMES ORIENTED MORE SW TO NE...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION MOVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...DECREASING AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE FOLLOWING THREE RELATIVELY SHORT-DURATION
EXCEPTIONS: 1) VICINITY SHOWERS AT TRIAD TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO... 2) MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SAT MORNING...
PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE VICINITY OF TRIAD
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND 3) A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING...WITH THE RELATIVE
HIGHEST CHANCE/COVERAGE NORTH OF KFAY.  THOUGH THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE SCATTERED ABOUT SAT AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MULTI-HOUR PREVAILING
CONDITION OF SUCH AT THIS TIME RANGE.  -MWS

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE...BECOMING LIKELY IN THE TRIAD BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING AT LEAST TO KRDU BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALONG WITH THE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BRING...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST TOWARD KINT AND KGSO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF THOSE
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. PERIODS
OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...OR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER MIXING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  -DJF

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MWS/DJF

000
FXUS62 KILM 172359
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP
AND GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF
WHICH THE FORCING INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
ENHANCED NEAR SFC WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS INLAND...KLBT/KFLO...ALONG WITH FOG-PRONE KCRE. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN HOURS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS.
WAVEWATCH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH PRECLUDING ANY WIND SHIFT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KMHX 172308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM LATE
SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM FRIDAY...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA A PRESENT SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP EARLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TO
THE US64 CORRIDOR PROVIDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS NOT BEST AS IT HAS BEEN OVERDOING PCPN OF LATE BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATION ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLS AS WEAK TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS INLAND AND NRN TIER
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BETTER INSTABILITY SO EXPECTING A BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW WITH MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE ON MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY AND NO POP FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AGAIN POPS
RAMPING UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING NRN RTES...ALONG THE US64/264
CORRIDORS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND WEAK
TROUGHING APPROACH FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
LIGHT FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PCPN THIS EVENING. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DROPS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM FRIDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH ELY FLOW MAINLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OCRACOKE NORTH AND SWLY FLOW AOB 15 KT TO THE SOUTH WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FEATURE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND MOST DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. PER
LATEST WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS...WAVES SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE...BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/SK/CTC
MARINE...HSA/SK/CTC

000
FXUS62 KMHX 172025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM LATE
SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS
EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE ADVECTING INLAND.
FULL POTENTIAL INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE REALIZED WITH SPC MESO-
ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WEST OF A BEAUFORT TO
PLYMOUTH LINE MOST LIKELY DUE TO DEWPOINTS DROPPING A LITTLE LOWER
THAN EXPECTED. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOL-SCT CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TO THE US64
CORRIDOR PROVIDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
NOT BEST AS IT HAS BEEN OVERDOING PCPN OF LATE BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SLT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATION ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLS AS WEAK TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS INLAND AND NRN TIER
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BETTER INSTABILITY SO EXPECTING A BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW WITH MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE ON MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY AND NO POP FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AGAIN POPS
RAMPING UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES MAY BRING ISOL TO SCT TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING INLAND AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING NRN
RTES...ALONG THE US64/264 CORRIDORS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGHING APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PCPN THIS EVENING.
ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DROPS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELY FLOW MAINLY 10
KTS OR LESS OCRACOKE NORTH AND SWLY FLOW AOB 15 KT TO THE SOUTH
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FEATURE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND MOST DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. PER
LATEST WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS...WAVES SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE...BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK

000
FXUS62 KILM 171931
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
331 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP
AND GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF
WHICH THE FORCING INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...AND LIKELY
INCREASE...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AS WELL. AFTER DAYBREAK...CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS.
WAVEWATCH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH PRECLUDING ANY WIND SHIFT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/SHK

000
FXUS62 KRAH 171855
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA WILL SAG SOUTH AND BE LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND OHIO...THEN BENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
COASTAL PLAIN...INSTABILITY WAS HIGHEST WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500J/KG ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE WAS MEAGER...AND WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD
YET TO FALL AS FAR AS THE RAP FORECAST...THEY STILL HAVE FALLEN
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S OVER MOST PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OUTPUT
OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...AND CONSIDERING THE NAM APPEARS
SO OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH ITS FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE RAP AND GFS OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE BETTER CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT KTDF TO KRWI. THIS IS WHERE THE RAP SHOWS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING AROUND AND AFTER 00Z...SUPPORTED MOST BY THE LOCAL
RALIEGH WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. IN THE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT IN PARTICULAR...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN ONLY NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER THERE AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE
NAM...ARE QUITE HIGH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE NAM ALSO FORECASTS SURFACE
DEW POINTS GETTING NEAR 70 OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY
21Z...WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY. UNDER A CONTINUING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING EAST...WILL ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL
REDUCTION IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING VARIOUS WRF OUTPUT...ON A LARGE
SCALE...MEAN RH INCREASES TO A MAXIMUM DURING THE PERIOD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND TO ABOUT U.S. 1
OR SO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...850MB THETA-E IS GREATEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT
FOCUSED OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEST
COMPARED TO EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...INSTEAD OF
TRYING TO INTERPRET THE VARIETY OF WRF TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARD LARGE-SCALE FEATURES.
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BECOMING LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO
AROUND U.S. 1 BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLOSER TO 850MB LOW PRESSURE.
THE LEAST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ...WHERE OVERALL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LEAST...CLOSER ALSO TO THE 850MB RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE. THE GFS HAS FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE AROUND 0.75
INCH FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT H850 A TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO TN AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH FROM AN OFFSHORE HIGH. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE STRENGTH AND CHARACTER OF THE SHORTWAVE LOW...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE TWO. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND
DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN SD...EXTENDING SSE
THROUGH CENTRAL OK/TX...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WARM MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FUELING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN
THE WEAK STEERING FLOW EXPECTED. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE IS OF THE
TALL AND SKINNY VARIETY...WITH VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF MAINLY 10-20
KTS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FROM POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HAVE DECREASED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS STILL LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONTINUE
TO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS. A MIDWEST LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME AND THE TROUGH
BECOMES ORIENTED MORE SW TO NE...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION MOVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...DECREASING AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID
TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE TRIAD
AND KRWI...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS KRDU...WITH LESSER POTENTIAL
TOWARD KFAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN AN AIR MASS THAT GRADUALLY MOISTENS
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS AT KINT...KGSO...AND KRWI...BUT THE SREF MODEL
PROBABILITIES OF CLOUDS BELOW 1000FT ARE HIGHEST JUST NORTHEAST OF
KRWI TOWARD KIXA...KASJ...AND KEDE AND WERE ONLY NOTED WITH FEW IN
THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE...BECOMING LIKELY IN THE TRIAD BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING AT LEAST TO KRDU BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALONG WITH THE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BRING...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST TOWARD KINT AND KGSO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF THOSE
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. PERIODS
OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...OR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER MIXING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...DJF

000
FXUS62 KILM 171723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP AND
GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I
HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF WHICH THE FORCING
INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM
ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.

COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.

HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...AND LIKELY
INCREASE...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AS WELL. AFTER DAYBREAK...CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS PREVAILS.
WAVEWATCH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH PRECLUDING ANY WIND SHIFT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 171513
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1113 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ACROSS
EASTERN NC THIS MORNING AND HAS STALLED FROM APPROX HATTERAS
VILLAGE TO GREENVILLE. LIGHT N/NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF
THE FRONT WITH W/SW PERSISTING TO THE SOUTH. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT RESIDED OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING IS DISSIPATING FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
SEE TEMPS RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS.
THIS WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODIFIED 12Z
KMHX SOUNDING INDICATE LI`S TO -7C AND CAPE TO AROUND 2200 J/KG.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING ALOFT BUT SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS RATHER
WEAK...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 10 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TODAY BUT FREEZING LEVEL IS ON THE LOWER
END...AROUND 11700 FT...AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS CLOUD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND SMALL HAIL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WARMEST SOUTHERN AREAS...TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN A FOCUSING MECH
FOR SCT CONVECTION. WEAK SHTWV ENERGY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL RMN ON THE CLDY SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR AMD MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME
COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAKING FOR AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE
NORTH MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...WILL ADD VCTS TO TAF SITES FROM 18Z THIS
AFTN TO 00Z THIS EVE ON UPDATE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY MAY
PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND SITES. LGT SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ELY BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN NC SAT THROUGH MON RESULTING IN SCT CONVECTION.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM FRIDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
EASTERN NC THIS MORNING AND HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS. N/NE WINDS AOB 15 KT WILL BECOME E LATE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE SW WINDS AOB 15 KT WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY NORTH
OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT WHILE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST. BY SUN MORNING
EXPECT ALL WINDS TO BECOME S/SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN MON WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON
NIGHT. S/SW WINDS 10-20KT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH SEAS 3-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...SK/CQD

000
FXUS62 KILM 171436
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM FRIDAY...ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. 0600 GFS STILL SHOWS SOME LIMITED/SHALLOW
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHICH IS SEA BREEZE DRIVEN. FURTHER
NORTH ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED BUT FOR THE
MOST PART IS NORTH OF OUR AREA. 0900 RAP GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS THE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. OVERALL THERE IS NO REASON TO REMOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BUT WITH THE 1200 UTC MHX SOUNDING SHOWING A CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES F...IT WILL BE LATE. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.

COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.

HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
INLAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
TEETERING MVFR/IFR FOG AT KLBT. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR AREA-WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10
KTS EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...AND
LIKELY INCREASE...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM FRIDAY...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. NO CHANGES WARRANTED. SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS IN FULL
FORCE WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL

000
FXUS62 KRAH 171406
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1006 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER AROUND OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1005 AM FRIDAY...

REST OF TODAY:
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FRONT OFFSHORE SAGGING SOUTH EAST OF NORFOLK BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHILE A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH TURNED MANY
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 WAS PRETTY
DIFFUSE. SKIES HAD CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
BEHIND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO FORECASDT MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW SURFACE DEW
POINTS REACT TO MIXING...AS THE RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE DRYING
SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ALMOST INTO THE 40S...
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS...AT LEAST
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COUPLE OF THINGS ARE IN FAVOR OF THE RAP...
WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF DEW POINTS ALREADY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS BEING MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE
IN THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WERE ONLY AROUND AN INCH AT BOTH KGSO AND KRNK...
COMPARED TO THE NEARLY 1.5 INCHES FORECAST BY THIS TIME BY THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN ON THE MORE MOIST BUFR
SOUNDINGS OF THE NAM AND GFS...MODEST CAPPING EXISTS AROUND 750MB...
PARTICULARLY ON THE GFS. WITH LIMITED FORCING ALOFT...THINK ANY DEEP
CONVECTION WILL NEED TO GENERATE OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND MOVE IN...DELAYING CHANCES AND PUSHING THEM A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH. THE LATEST HRRR WRF SHOWS ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
ABOUT U.S. 64 AFTER 20Z...AND THE LOCAL WRF IS VERY SIMILAR. RAISED
MAXES ABOUT A DEGREE IN MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN MORE SUN...TWO TO THREE
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT IN EXPECTED DRIER CONDITIONS AND
MORE SUN. -DJF

TONIGHT:
WITH WEAK S/W RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... EXPECT
ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DWINDLE WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS... WILL TREND POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANNOT
RULE OUT ANY LOCALIZED AREA OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEPENDING ON IF
AND WHERE ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIP FALLS TODAY. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY:
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING...
WHILE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS ON SATURDAY (WITH THE NAM TRYING TO HOLD
IT OFF MORE). THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A WETTER SOLUTION.
MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STILL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK (LESS
THAN 20 KTS AGAIN)... RESULTING IN A LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN.
HOWEVER... WE MAY HAVE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOTION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND EXPECTED GREATER COVERAGE.
THUS... WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE HWO. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE LOWER WITH THE FRONT TO
THE NORTH TRYING TO OOZE DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S
NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA... CLOSER
TO THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THUS.. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 AM FRIDAY...

WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD SETTING UP FOR CENTRAL NC WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING DRIFTING  SLOWLY
SEWD INTO EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH WEST-TO-EAST IN VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER.
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL SLY
FLOW...MADE EVIDENT BY 850MB FLOW INCREASING FROM 15 KTS SATURDAY
EVENING TO 25-30KTS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE
OFF THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF INTO THE CAROLINAS...INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MID-UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION. THUS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF FOR NORTH WITH SOLID
CHANCE POPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
OVERCAST SKIES AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS LOWER 80S
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DRIFT EAST WITH TIME BUT HELP
TO FOCUS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 1 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN VICINITY
OF THE VA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING. THUS STILL FAVOR HIGHER POPS
(LIKELY) ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHANCE OR LOW END LIKELY SOUTH. MONDAY MAX TEMPS AGAIN HAMPERED BY
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. MIN TEMPS MID 60S.

PRESENCE OF THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL AID TO
FOCUS MOST OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.6-1.75 INCHES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HPC HAS AN AREA OF THE
NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN VA OUTLINED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES (EQUIVALENT TO
A MONTHS WORTH OF RAIN) POSSIBLE NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY...WENT A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS 2-2.5 INCHES IN
THIS REGION. HOWEVER THIS SET-UP USUALLY LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SO COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION. PLAN TO MENTION
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID TO DRY OUT THE AIR MASS. A SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EVERYWHERE TO COVER THREAT
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THE
EARLY SUMMER PATTERN IN THE LOW-MID 80S.

BY THURSDAY...GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS EWD MOVEMENT OF A
S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY. FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF AT THIS TIME.
THUS...WILL LOWER POPS THURSDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND HIGHS TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID
80S. MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1005 AM FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL RESULT FROM ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM TRIAD TERMINALS
TO KRDU AND KRWI AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WILL KEEP ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS
MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...GIVEN
BOTH THE TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WILL GO WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ACROSS THE THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES... WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT KFAY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... BEFORE OUTFLOW FROM ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS FOR KFAY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND DWINDLE IN COVERAGE
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE RAIN FALLS
AND THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER INCREASE. SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A MOIST AIR MASS AS WELL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS/DJF

000
FXUS62 KILM 171145
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
745 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S MOST LOCATIONS AND MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONVECTIVE INDICES AS DERIVED FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS APPROACH THE
AREA.

WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.

COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.

HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
INLAND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
TEETERING MVFR/IFR FOG AT KLBT. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...GIVING WAY TO VFR AREA-WIDE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10
KTS EXPECTED TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...AND
LIKELY INCREASE...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/III

000
FXUS62 KRAH 171032
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
632 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER AROUND OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY:
A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY DAYBREAK... LEAVING WEAK S/W RIDING TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE CURRENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN
THE TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE. MORE OF A CONCERN IS THE
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA (WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED
MORE WEST TO EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON) ALONG WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW THAT
HAS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM CONVECTION ACROSS
WV/VA EARLIER TODAY. MEANWHILE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT (WHICH IS
STILL STALLED OUT FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC). THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY GET A PUSHED
SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. EXPECT THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THOUGH. THUS... THINK THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WRT TO PRECIP CHANCES... OVERALL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE BETTER TODAY... WITH PW`S APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES. HOWEVER... WITH S/W RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY... UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT GREAT. HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH
THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY... INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW.
THUS... WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POP (30-40 PERCENT) CENTERED NEAR A
LINE FROM EXX TO RDU AND RWI... WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH OF THIS LINE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. IN
ADDITION... WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. WRT TO A SVR POTENTIAL... MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 700-1500 J/KG RANGE... BUT 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WEAK (LESS THAN 20 KTS).
THUS... ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW... WITH NOT EVEN
A 5 PERCENT MENTION FROM SPC. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA A BIT BY THE EXTRA MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER....
WITH THE BEST HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THUS... WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.

TONIGHT:
WITH WEAK S/W RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... EXPECT
ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DWINDLE WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS... WILL TREND POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANNOT
RULE OUT ANY LOCALIZED AREA OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEPENDING ON IF
AND WHERE ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIP FALLS TODAY. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY:
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING...
WHILE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS ON SATURDAY (WITH THE NAM TRYING TO HOLD
IT OFF MORE). THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A WETTER SOLUTION.
MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STILL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK (LESS
THAN 20 KTS AGAIN)... RESULTING IN A LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN.
HOWEVER... WE MAY HAVE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOTION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND EXPECTED GREATER COVERAGE.
THUS... WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE HWO. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE LOWER WITH THE FRONT TO
THE NORTH TRYING TO OOZE DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S
NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA... CLOSER
TO THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THUS.. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 AM FRIDAY...

WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD SETTING UP FOR CENTRAL NC WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING DRIFTING  SLOWLY
SEWD INTO EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH WEST-TO-EAST IN VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER.
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL SLY
FLOW...MADE EVIDENT BY 850MB FLOW INCREASING FROM 15 KTS SATURDAY
EVENING TO 25-30KTS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE
OFF THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF INTO THE CAROLINAS...INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MID-UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION. THUS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF FOR NORTH WITH SOLID
CHANCE POPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
OVERCAST SKIES AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS LOWER 80S
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DRIFT EAST WITH TIME BUT HELP
TO FOCUS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 1 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN VICINITY
OF THE VA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING. THUS STILL FAVOR HIGHER POPS
(LIKELY) ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHANCE OR LOW END LIKELY SOUTH. MONDAY MAX TEMPS AGAIN HAMPERED BY
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. MIN TEMPS MID 60S.

PRESENCE OF THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL AID TO
FOCUS MOST OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.6-1.75 INCHES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HPC HAS AN AREA OF THE
NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN VA OUTLINED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES (EQUIVALENT TO
A MONTHS WORTH OF RAIN) POSSIBLE NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY...WENT A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS 2-2.5 INCHES IN
THIS REGION. HOWEVER THIS SET-UP USUALLY LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SO COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION. PLAN TO MENTION
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID TO DRY OUT THE AIR MASS. A SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EVERYWHERE TO COVER THREAT
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THE
EARLY SUMMER PATTERN IN THE LOW-MID 80S.

BY THURSDAY...GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS EWD MOVEMENT OF A
S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY. FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF AT THIS TIME.
THUS...WILL LOWER POPS THURSDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND HIGHS TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID
80S. MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL RESULT FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/REMNANT OUTFLOW THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TRIAD TERMINALS TO KRDU AND KRWI AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WILL KEEP
ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING... GIVEN BOTH THE TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL GO WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN TAF SITES... WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND AT KFAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... BEFORE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS FOR KFAY AS
WELL. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND DWINDLE IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER... WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIVEN BY WHERE THE
RAIN FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER INCREASE. SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A MOIST AIR MASS AS WELL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/DJF
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS

000
FXUS62 KILM 171015
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S MOST LOCATIONS AND MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR
NORTH BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONVECTIVE INDICES AS DERIVED FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS APPROACH THE
AREA.

WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.

COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.

HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME SCT CU DURING
THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST FOLLOWING AFTN SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 00Z BEGINNING AT THE INLAND TERMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/III

000
FXUS62 KMHX 170945
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
TODAY THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO INIT TEMPS OTRW NO CHANGES.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN SXNS EARLY THEN BECOME
STNRY ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. INCRG AMS MSTR AND INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WARM DAY
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 80S INLAND WITH LWR AND
MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT. OBX AND IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS MID AND UPR
70S. SKIES WILL BE MOCLDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN A FOCUSING MECH
FOR SCT CONVECTION. WEAK SHTWV ENERGY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL RMN ON THE CLDY SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR AMD MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME
COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAKING FOR AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE
NORTH MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...WILL ADD VCTS TO TAF SITES FROM 18Z THIS
AFTN TO 00Z THIS EVE ON UPDATE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY MAY
PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
INLAND SITES. LGT SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ELY BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE S INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN NC SAT THROUGH MON RESULTING IN SCT CONVECTION.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND
SEAS 2-5 FT EARLY THIS MORN. WINDS BECOME NE THEN E 10-15 KT
BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH SHOULD STALL ARND CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTN. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 2-5 FT RANGE ACRS THE CSTL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY NORTH
OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT WHILE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST. BY SUN MORNING
EXPECT ALL WINDS TO BECOME S/SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN MON WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON
NIGHT. S/SW WINDS 10-20KT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH SEAS 3-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 170718
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER AROUND OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY:
A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY DAYBREAK... LEAVING WEAK S/W RIDING TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE CURRENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN
THE TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE. MORE OF A CONCERN IS THE
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA (WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED
MORE WEST TO EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON) ALONG WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW THAT
HAS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM CONVECTION ACROSS
WV/VA EARLIER TODAY. MEANWHILE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT (WHICH IS
STILL STALLED OUT FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC). THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY GET A PUSHED
SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. EXPECT THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THOUGH. THUS... THINK THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WRT TO PRECIP CHANCES... OVERALL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE BETTER TODAY... WITH PW`S APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES. HOWEVER... WITH S/W RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY... UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT GREAT. HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH
THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY... INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW.
THUS... WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POP (30-40 PERCENT) CENTERED NEAR A
LINE FROM EXX TO RDU AND RWI... WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH OF THIS LINE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. IN
ADDITION... WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON. WRT TO A SVR POTENTIAL... MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 700-1500 J/KG RANGE... BUT 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WEAK (LESS THAN 20 KTS).
THUS... ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW... WITH NOT EVEN
A 5 PERCENT MENTION FROM SPC. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA A BIT BY THE EXTRA MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER....
WITH THE BEST HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THUS... WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.

TONIGHT:
WITH WEAK S/W RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... EXPECT
ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DWINDLE WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS... WILL TREND POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANNOT
RULE OUT ANY LOCALIZED AREA OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEPENDING ON IF
AND WHERE ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIP FALLS TODAY. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY:
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WHILE OPENING UP AND WEAKENING...
WHILE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS ON SATURDAY (WITH THE NAM TRYING TO HOLD
IT OFF MORE). THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A WETTER SOLUTION.
MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STILL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK (LESS
THAN 20 KTS AGAIN)... RESULTING IN A LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN.
HOWEVER... WE MAY HAVE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOTION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND EXPECTED GREATER COVERAGE.
THUS... WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE HWO. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE LOWER WITH THE FRONT TO
THE NORTH TRYING TO OOZE DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S
NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA... CLOSER
TO THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THUS.. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 AM FRIDAY...

WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD SETTING UP FOR CENTRAL NC WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING DRIFTING  SLOWLY
SEWD INTO EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH WEST-TO-EAST IN VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER.
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL SLY
FLOW...MADE EVIDENT BY 850MB FLOW INCREASING FROM 15 KTS SATURDAY
EVENING TO 25-30KTS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE
OFF THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF INTO THE CAROLINAS...INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MID-UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION. THUS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST...AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF FOR NORTH WITH SOLID
CHANCE POPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY
OVERCAST SKIES AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS LOWER 80S
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY OPENS UP
AND DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DRIFT EAST WITH TIME BUT HELP
TO FOCUS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 1 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STALLED SFC BOUNDARY IN VICINITY
OF THE VA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING. THUS STILL FAVOR HIGHER POPS
(LIKELY) ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...TRENDING TO HIGH
CHANCE OR LOW END LIKELY SOUTH. MONDAY MAX TEMPS AGAIN HAMPERED BY
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. MIN TEMPS MID 60S.

PRESENCE OF THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL AID TO
FOCUS MOST OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.6-1.75 INCHES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HPC HAS AN AREA OF THE
NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN VA OUTLINED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES (EQUIVALENT TO
A MONTHS WORTH OF RAIN) POSSIBLE NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY...WENT A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS 2-2.5 INCHES IN
THIS REGION. HOWEVER THIS SET-UP USUALLY LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SO COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION. PLAN TO MENTION
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID TO DRY OUT THE AIR MASS. A SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EVERYWHERE TO COVER THREAT
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THE
EARLY SUMMER PATTERN IN THE LOW-MID 80S.

BY THURSDAY...GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS EWD MOVEMENT OF A
S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY. FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF AT THIS TIME.
THUS...WILL LOWER POPS THURSDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND HIGHS TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID
80S. MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL RESULT FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/REMNANT OUTFLOW THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TRIAD TERMINALS TO KRDU AND KRWI. IN ADDITION...
CANNOT RULE OUT A STAY SHOWERS OR TWO EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM THESE POSSIBLE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... GIVEN BOTH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA NOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING (WHICH SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON)
WILL GO WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES... WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT KFAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON... BEFORE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY
RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS FOR KFAY AS WELL.

LOOKING AHEAD: AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER INCREASE. SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A MOIST AIR MASS AS WELL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/DJF
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS

000
FXUS62 KILM 170707
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS A
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONVECTIVE INDICIES AS DERIVED FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS APPROACH THE
AREA.

WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SAT AND SUN. FOR SAT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BUT COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED.

COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WEAK 5H
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCH BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE HELP GENERATE CONVECTION.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEPER
CONVECTION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR AND LACK OF STRONG JETTING SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.

HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH WARM ADVECTION BEING
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS IN BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE ARE MON...ONCE AGAIN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS THE CASE
ON SUN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LACKING SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

PRECIP CHANCES START TO DECREASE TUE AS 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS IN. REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE 5H RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 12FT TUE EXPANDING
THROUGH THU AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ABOVE 15K FT MAY KEEP CIRRUS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE WELL BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD SO IT IS NOT A FACTOR AT THIS POINT.

HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO MON AND TUE BUT CLIMB
WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME SCT CU DURING
THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST FOLLOWING AFTN SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 00Z BEGINNING AT THE INLAND TERMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEAST SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KMHX 170705
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
TODAY THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN SXNS
EARLY TODAY THEN BECOME STNRY ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. INCRG AMS
MSTR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION TO
DVLP ALONG THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPTED WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPR 80S INLAND WITH LWR AND MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT. OBX AND
IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS MID AND UPR 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOCLDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN A FOCUSING MECH
FOR SCT CONVECTION. WEAK SHTWV ENERGY WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTL FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL RMN ON THE CLDY SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LWR AMD MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME
COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAKING FOR AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS SAT
AND SUN AFTERNOONS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE
NORTH MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ISOLD TO
SCT CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA
ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND SITES. LGT SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ELY BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE S INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN NC SAT THROUGH MON RESULTING IN SCT CONVECTION.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN GOOD MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2-5 FT EARLY
THIS MORN. WINDS BECOME NE THEN E 10-15 KT BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH SHOULD STALL ARND CAPE HATTERAS. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 2-5 FT
RANGE ACRS THE CSTL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SATURDAY NORTH
OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT WHILE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST. BY SUN MORNING
EXPECT ALL WINDS TO BECOME S/SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT.
EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN MON WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON
NIGHT. S/SW WINDS 10-20KT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH SEAS 3-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CQD/JME
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 170543
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
142 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA HAS
MADE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO BEND AROUND THE APPALACHIANS AND SURGE SOUTH TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN NC LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...THE INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL VA HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED JUST NORTH OF ROANOKE RAPIDS.  A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING ALONG A MORE PRONOUNCED AXIS OF 850MB
MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS NOW BEGINNING TO REEMERGE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS OF VIRGINIA.  IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION...OR WHAT
HOLDS TOGETHER OF IT...WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINA OVERNIGHT...WHILE ITS OUTFLOW MAY SLIP SOUTH AND MERGE WITH
THE PREEXISTING BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC...BASED OVER 00Z RAOBS AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS...FEATURES RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT RATHER DRY
AIR ABOVE THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION.  THUS...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE LIFT FROM THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES
WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 AND 850MB.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHTER CHANCE POP BUT RESTRICT IT TO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND
RUC 300MB VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHWESTERN NC...AND WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NC OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER WESTERN NC IN THE
ASHEVILLE VICINITY. WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS LATER TONIGHT.  THE CURRENT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FAVORS THE COOLEST LOWS IN THIS AREA...SO ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

A RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA REMAINS IN A FAIRLY MOIST OVERALL AIR MASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LINGERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RELATIVE TO
THE REST OF THE REGION...AN 850MB THETA-E PERSISTS OVER AND NEAR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...POSSIBLY INTO
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS
ALOFT ARE GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE...AND LIFT SEEMS TO BE
MAXIMIZED DIURNALLY UNDER MAXIMUM HEATING WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 500-1500J/KG...HIGHEST TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. 0-6KM SHEAR IS
WEAK...TEENS KNOTS OR LESS...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE IS SLENDER
AS THE 800-600MB LAYER IS FORECAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE
NAM AND THE GFS SHOW SOME QPF...AND WILL FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KEXX TO KGSB CLOSER
TO ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WHERE K VALUES ARE FORECAST HIGHEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. LEANED NEAR THE WARMER MET AND ECMWF MOS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STALL OVER TN AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS PERIOD...
WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE MODELS HANDLE THE CHARACTER OF THE
LOW DIFFERENTLY...DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL YIELD
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS STARTS MOVING EAST. AT THE SURFACE...
THE GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND AND DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH TX...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE LOW OVER
IN/KY ON SATURDAY...WILL EXTEND EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. WARM
MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS CUTS OFF THE LOW OVER KY WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF INDICATES A S/W TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NC. BOTH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG AT THIS TIME...THUS
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
IN MOVING THE LOW OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
GENERATED VIA BUFKIT INDICATING TALL SKINNY CAPE. COMBINED WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-15 KTS EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE
MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGHEST PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S NW AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AS THE LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVES NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT IN AT THE MID
LEVELS WITH DECREASING RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST DURING THIS
TIME...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 80S...DECREASING A FEW DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL RESULT FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/REMNANT OUTFLOW THIS
AFTERNOON FROM TRIAD TERMINALS TO KRDU AND KRWI. IN ADDITION...
CANNOT RULE OUT A STAY SHOWERS OR TWO EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM THESE POSSIBLE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... GIVEN BOTH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA NOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING (WHICH SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON)
WILL GO WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES... WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT KFAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON... BEFORE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY
RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS FOR KFAY AS WELL.

LOOKING AHEAD: AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER INCREASE. SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A MOIST AIR MASS AS WELL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...BSD/MWS

000
FXUS62 KILM 170541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A MILD EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD UNDERWAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE PREVAILS. AIDING THE MILD REGIME ARE
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE EVIDENT IN VAPOR
ANIMATIONS MOVING E OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CONVECTION WAS
CONFINED MAINLY IN THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING.

PARTIAL BUT NOT FULL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SERIES
OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES ALOFT PRODUCE VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS. THIS COUPLED WITH SW LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW DROPPING TEMPERATURE TREND WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND LOW
TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE HAS MINS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECAST AND A FEW TWEAKS UPWARD ARE PLANNED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO MIN TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP IT WARM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT STALLS OUT COMPLETELY. THE
FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY SW...AND S BELOW 5 KFT ON SAT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

A SHARP SEABREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON
FRI...RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE RATHER DEEP...BUT WEAK...WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MUCH BETTER PROGRESS INLAND ON SAT
GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW.

IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. EITHER WAY...BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE
80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE. THE BEACHES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS WILL BE
WARMEST ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL LINGER AND DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISPLACE FRI...WILL INCLUDE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FRI EVE ACROSS PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SAT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES BECOME SIGNIFICANT...IN
EXCESS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...INDICATIVE OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 7 DEG C/KM WHICH SHOULD
HINDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. STILL...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE
95. WILL CARRY UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE SUN/MON.
UPPER IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY AROUND BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL TRACK
NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN AND MON. THIS OCCURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES...OR NEARLY 2 SD`S
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID
60S...SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BOTH SUN AND MON AFTN. ML LAPSE
RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL HOWEVER...5-6 C/KM...SO WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD...SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.

BY TUESDAY...UPPER VORT SWINGS OFFSHORE LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. WHILE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE MOIST...OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASED ON TUESDAY...AND EVEN MORESO WED/THU WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S. A SLIGHT WARM UP MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME SCT CU DURING
THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST FOLLOWING AFTN SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 00Z BEGINNING AT THE INLAND TERMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SW WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE. THIS WILL LEAVE
A SW RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO THE MORNING.
SEAS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF SSW WIND-CHOP AND
WEAK LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES. NO TSTMS OR FOG CONCERNS OVER THE
0-20NM WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF THE WATERS FRI NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE N.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE CREATES PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WHILE
MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION/SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING
THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH E/SE SWELL WILL SLOWLY GROW IN AMPLITUDE
WITH AN INCREASING PERIOD DURING THE EXTENDED...TO
2-3FT/10SEC...WAVES WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A S/SW WIND WAVE
OVERLAYING THE E/SE SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ

000
FXUS62 KMHX 170500
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...MINOR INITIAL TEMP CHANGES OTHERWISE REMOVED
MENTION OF PRECIP UNTIL MORN.

PREV DISC...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TN BRINGING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED ACROSS PA EXTENDING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
600-800MB LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE SLGT CHC POPS SWD TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 264 CORRIDOR. IN
ADDITION...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG INTO THE NRN
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PULL OFFSHORE FRI WITH
WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT THE KINSTON TO HATTERAS LINE DURING THE DAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PW`S
TO AROUND 1.5" AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SRN AREAS
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ONLY SEE
MID 80S. WINDS SHIFT FRONT NORTH TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND EXPECT THE MOST DRASTIC COOL DOWN TO BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX WHERE HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN
THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BECOME COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. PRE-FRONTAL FAIR WX WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINING TO N. SHRT
WV APPROACHING FROM W-SW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH S TOWARD AREA FRI MORNING AND
ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE
MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING INLAND SITES. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT W FRI AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SAGS OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH AND WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS 2-5 FT EARLY THIS MORN. PRES GRAD WILL CONT TO RELAX AS WEAK
BNDRY APPROACHES FROM THE N.

PREV DISC...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE WATERS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED
TO REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND 12Z...THEN STALL AROUND CAPE
HATTERAS FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15
KT...AND BLO 10 KT FRI INVOF THE FRONT. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BE NORTH...SHIFTING THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN
SWLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
FRI AND WAVEWATCH BRINGS SEAS BLO 6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT FOR FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
SATURDAY NORTH OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 15
GUSTING TO 20 KT ALL WATERS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHERLY 15 GUSTING
TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JAC/SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JAC/JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/SK/DAG

000
FXUS62 KMHX 170145
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
945 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM THURS...ADJUSTED INIT TEMP GRIDS AS DROPPING A BIT
FASTER THEN PREV FCST...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH SMALL POP LATE
NORTH AS WEAK BNDRY DROPS INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISC...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TN BRINGING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED ACROSS PA EXTENDING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
600-800MB LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE SLT CHC POPS SWD TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 264 CORRIDOR. IN
ADDITION...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG INTO THE NRN
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PULL OFFSHORE FRI WITH
WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT THE KINSTON TO HATTERAS LINE DURING THE DAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PW`S
TO AROUND 1.5" AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SRN AREAS
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ONLY SEE
MID 80S. WINDS SHIFT FRONT NORTH TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND EXPECT THE MOST DRASTIC COOL DOWN TO BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX WHERE HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN
THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BECOME COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. PRE-FRONTAL FAIR WX WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINING TO N. SHRT WV
APPROACHING FROM W-SW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH S TOWARD AREA FRI MORNING AND ADDITIONAL
SHRT WV ENERGY MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY
IMPACTING INLAND SITES. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT
THEN SHIFT W FRI AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGS OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH AND WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM THURS...WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WEAK
BNDRY APPROACHES FROM THE N. BASED ON BUOYS TO THE S THINK SEAS ARE
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS SO WILL DROP THE SCA.

PREV DISC...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE WATERS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED
TO REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND 12Z...THEN STALL AROUND CAPE
HATTERAS FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15
KT...AND BLO 10 KT FRI INVOF THE FRONT. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BE NORTH...SHIFTING THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN
SWLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
FRI AND WAVEWATCH BRINGS SEAS BLO 6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT FOR FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
SATURDAY NORTH OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 15
GUSTING TO 20 KT ALL WATERS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHERLY 15 GUSTING
TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/RF
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/RF

000
FXUS62 KRAH 170144
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA HAS
MADE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO BEND AROUND THE APPALACHIANS AND SURGE SOUTH TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN NC LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...THE INITIAL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL VA HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED JUST NORTH OF ROANOKE RAPIDS.  A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING ALONG A MORE PRONOUNCED AXIS OF 850MB
MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS NOW BEGINNING TO REEMERGE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS OF VIRGINIA.  IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION...OR WHAT
HOLDS TOGETHER OF IT...WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINA OVERNIGHT...WHILE ITS OUTFLOW MAY SLIP SOUTH AND MERGE WITH
THE PREEXISTING BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC...BASED OVER 00Z RAOBS AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS...FEATURES RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT RATHER DRY
AIR ABOVE THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION.  THUS...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE LIFT FROM THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES
WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 AND 850MB.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHTER CHANCE POP BUT RESTRICT IT TO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND
RUC 300MB VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHWESTERN NC...AND WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NC OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER WESTERN NC IN THE
ASHEVILLE VICINITY. WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS LATER TONIGHT.  THE CURRENT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FAVORS THE COOLEST LOWS IN THIS AREA...SO ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

A RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA REMAINS IN A FAIRLY MOIST OVERALL AIR MASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LINGERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RELATIVE TO
THE REST OF THE REGION...AN 850MB THETA-E PERSISTS OVER AND NEAR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...POSSIBLY INTO
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS
ALOFT ARE GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE...AND LIFT SEEMS TO BE
MAXIMIZED DIURNALLY UNDER MAXIMUM HEATING WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 500-1500J/KG...HIGHEST TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. 0-6KM SHEAR IS
WEAK...TEENS KNOTS OR LESS...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE IS SLENDER
AS THE 800-600MB LAYER IS FORECAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE
NAM AND THE GFS SHOW SOME QPF...AND WILL FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KEXX TO KGSB CLOSER
TO ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WHERE K VALUES ARE FORECAST HIGHEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. LEANED NEAR THE WARMER MET AND ECMWF MOS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STALL OVER TN AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS PERIOD...
WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE MODELS HANDLE THE CHARACTER OF THE
LOW DIFFERENTLY...DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL YIELD
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS STARTS MOVING EAST. AT THE SURFACE...
THE GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND AND DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH TX...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE LOW OVER
IN/KY ON SATURDAY...WILL EXTEND EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. WARM
MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS CUTS OFF THE LOW OVER KY WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF INDICATES A S/W TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NC. BOTH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG AT THIS TIME...THUS
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
IN MOVING THE LOW OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
GENERATED VIA BUFKIT INDICATING TALL SKINNY CAPE. COMBINED WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-15 KTS EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE
MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGHEST PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S NW AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AS THE LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVES NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT IN AT THE MID
LEVELS WITH DECREASING RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST DURING THIS
TIME...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 80S...DECREASING A FEW DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM THURSDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL RESULT FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ALONG A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM TRIAD
TERMINALS TO KRDU AND KRWI. THERE IS ALSO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF A
SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI BETWEEN 03-09Z TONIGHT...WHERE AND
WHEN A LIFT-PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN VA MAY SETTLE. CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING ANY OF THE
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS IS RELATIVELY LOW...HOWEVER...SO ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR FRI AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OWING TO THE
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH...AND WILL
VEER FROM GENERALLY WESTERLY THIS EVENING TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY ON FRI.

LOOKING AHEAD: AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER INCREASE. ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND IN A
MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS/DJF

000
FXUS62 KILM 170108
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
908 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...A MILD EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD UNDERWAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE PREVAILS. AIDING
THE MILD REGIME ARE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE
EVIDENT IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS MOVING E OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MAINLY IN THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING.

PARTIAL BUT NOT FULL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SERIES
OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES ALOFT PRODUCE VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS. THIS COUPLED WITH SW LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW DROPPING TEMPERATURE TREND WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND LOW
TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE HAS MINS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECAST AND A FEW TWEAKS UPWARD ARE PLANNED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO MIN TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP IT WARM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT STALLS OUT COMPLETELY. THE
FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY SW...AND S BELOW 5 KFT ON SAT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

A SHARP SEABREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON
FRI...RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE RATHER DEEP...BUT WEAK...WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MUCH BETTER PROGRESS INLAND ON SAT
GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW.

IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. EITHER WAY...BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE
80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE. THE BEACHES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS WILL BE
WARMEST ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL LINGER AND DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISPLACE FRI...WILL INCLUDE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FRI EVE ACROSS PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SAT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES BECOME SIGNIFICANT...IN
EXCESS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...INDICATIVE OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 7 DEG C/KM WHICH SHOULD
HINDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. STILL...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE
95. WILL CARRY UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE SUN/MON.
UPPER IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY AROUND BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL TRACK
NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN AND MON. THIS OCCURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES...OR NEARLY 2 SD`S
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID
60S...SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BOTH SUN AND MON AFTN. ML LAPSE
RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL HOWEVER...5-6 C/KM...SO WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD...SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.

BY TUESDAY...UPPER VORT SWINGS OFFSHORE LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. WHILE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE MOIST...OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASED ON TUESDAY...AND EVEN MORESO WED/THU WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S. A SLIGHT WARM UP MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN CIRRUS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT FOG FORMATION...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT/KFLO WHERE THE WINDS MAY BECOME
CALM/LIGHT JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
SCT CU DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. ALONG THE
COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH THESE TERMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FARTHER TO THE
NE. THIS WILL LEAVE A SW RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING
INTO THE MORNING. SEAS MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE IN A MIX OF SSW
WIND-CHOP AND WEAK LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES. NO TSTMS OR FOG CONCERNS
OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF THE WATERS FRI NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE N.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE CREATES PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WHILE
MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION/SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING
THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH E/SE SWELL WILL SLOWLY GROW IN AMPLITUDE
WITH AN INCREASING PERIOD DURING THE EXTENDED...TO
2-3FT/10SEC...WAVES WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A S/SW WIND WAVE
OVERLAYING THE E/SE SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 170007
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
807 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
INDIANA AND OHIO TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW YORK...WITH A NOTICEABLE
SURFACE TROUGH WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. IT WAS ALONG
AND NEAR THIS TROUGH WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY GREATER 0-6KM
SHEAR AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO 1500J/KG ON THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...CIN CONTINUED TO
DOMINATE...WITH NUMEROUS HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

OVERNIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BUFR SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN
DECENT LOW-LEVEL STABILITY...BUT THE SAME SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND THE GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...BETWEEN 800MB AND 600MB. MLCAPE IS NOT COMPUTED ON THE
GUIDANCE UNTIL AFTER 00Z...WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE
CLOSER APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND LIFTED INDICES GENERALLY
FALL TO AROUND 0C. K INDICES INCREASE FROM LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO
ABOVE 30 OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES...AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID MAY. WHILE THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN STABLE...AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALOFT...AND WITH THE POSSIBLE APPROACH OF OUTFLOW FROM THE
NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR. MOS GUIDANCE
POPS FROM THE MAV AND MET HAVE BOTH INCREASED NOTICEABLY...MOSTLY IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE HAS NOTED A
FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE AREA FROM KFAY TO
KCTZ. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE TRIAD EAST ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...UNDER A
PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERALL...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

A RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA REMAINS IN A FAIRLY MOIST OVERALL AIR MASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LINGERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RELATIVE TO
THE REST OF THE REGION...AN 850MB THETA-E PERSISTS OVER AND NEAR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...POSSIBLY INTO
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS
ALOFT ARE GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE...AND LIFT SEEMS TO BE
MAXIMIZED DIURNALLY UNDER MAXIMUM HEATING WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 500-1500J/KG...HIGHEST TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. 0-6KM SHEAR IS
WEAK...TEENS KNOTS OR LESS...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE IS SLENDER
AS THE 800-600MB LAYER IS FORECAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE
NAM AND THE GFS SHOW SOME QPF...AND WILL FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KEXX TO KGSB CLOSER
TO ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WHERE K VALUES ARE FORECAST HIGHEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. LEANED NEAR THE WARMER MET AND ECMWF MOS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STALL OVER TN AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THIS PERIOD...
WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE MODELS HANDLE THE CHARACTER OF THE
LOW DIFFERENTLY...DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL YIELD
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS STARTS MOVING EAST. AT THE SURFACE...
THE GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND AND DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY. WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH
THROUGH TX...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS...WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE LOW OVER
IN/KY ON SATURDAY...WILL EXTEND EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. WARM
MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS CUTS OFF THE LOW OVER KY WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF INDICATES A S/W TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NC. BOTH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG AT THIS TIME...THUS
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
IN MOVING THE LOW OUT MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
GENERATED VIA BUFKIT INDICATING TALL SKINNY CAPE. COMBINED WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-15 KTS EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE
MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGHEST PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S NW AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AS THE LOW/SHORTWAVE MOVES NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT IN AT THE MID
LEVELS WITH DECREASING RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST DURING THIS
TIME...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 80S...DECREASING A FEW DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM THURSDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL RESULT FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ALONG A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM TRIAD
TERMINALS TO KRDU AND KRWI. THERE IS ALSO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF A
SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI BETWEEN 03-09Z TONIGHT...WHERE AND
WHEN A LIFT-PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN VA MAY SETTLE. CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING ANY OF THE
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS IS RELATIVELY LOW...HOWEVER...SO ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR FRI AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OWING TO THE
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH...AND WILL
VEER FROM GENERALLY WESTERLY THIS EVENING TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY ON FRI.

LOOKING AHEAD: AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER INCREASE. ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND IN A
MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS/DJF

000
FXUS62 KMHX 162354
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
754 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM THURS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS FOR
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS
WASHING OUT...WHILE A GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR THE
WAKEFIELD VA RADAR PUSHES SOUTH NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. CONVECTION
TRIED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING GUST FRONT BUT HAS
NOT INITIATED FOR SOME WHILE AND DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE A FOCUS
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TN BRINGING INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS PA EXTENDING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
600-800MB LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE SLT CHC POPS SWD TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 264 CORRIDOR.
IN ADDITION...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG INTO THE
NRN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SWLY FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PULL OFFSHORE FRI WITH
WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT THE KINSTON TO HATTERAS LINE DURING THE DAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PW`S
TO AROUND 1.5" AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SRN AREAS
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESSES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ONLY SEE
MID 80S. WINDS SHIFT FRONT NORTH TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND EXPECT THE MOST DRASTIC COOL DOWN TO BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX WHERE HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN
THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BECOME COMPRESSED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT TO THE NORTH
MONDAY. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECTING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY...LOWERING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THEN WARMING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
LOWS WILL BE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. PRE-FRONTAL FAIR WX WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINING TO N. SHRT WV
APPROACHING FROM W-SW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH S TOWARD AREA FRI MORNING AND ADDITIONAL
SHRT WV ENERGY MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY
IMPACTING INLAND SITES. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT
THEN SHIFT W FRI AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGS OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS...AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH AND WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SW WINDS
10-15 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS CONTINUING FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN 4-5
FT WIND-WAVE SEAS AND 2-4 FT MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE WATERS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED
TO REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND 12Z...THEN STALL AROUND CAPE
HATTERAS FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15
KT...AND BLO 10 KT FRI INVOF THE FRONT. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BE NORTH...SHIFTING THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN SWLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND FRI AND WAVEWATCH BRINGS SEAS BLO 6 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT FOR
FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY..A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
SATURDAY NORTH OF THE FRONT MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 15
GUSTING TO 20 KT ALL WATERS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHERLY 15 GUSTING
TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG

000
FXUS62 KILM 162328
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
728 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CREATE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRIER AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...VERY WARM SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST PLACES. WILMINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ALONG
WITH ELIZABETHTOWN AND FEW OTHER PLACES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA.
CLOUDS WERE SLIGHTLY THICKER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
HELPING TO STABILIZE THE RISING TEMPS THERE AND KEEPING MOST TEMPS
JUST BELOW 90. A GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS  HELPED THE HEATING PROCESS AND KEPT SEA
BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS IT PENETRATED INLAND A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS DROPPED A FEW DEGREES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD FILTERING
OUT THE SUN AT TIMES AND THE WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER. CLOUDS WERE
SLIGHTLY THICKER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
STABILIZE THE RISING TEMPS THERE.

SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE.  LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS
AND MOISTURE PROFILES...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RISING. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP IT WARM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE
ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT STALLS OUT COMPLETELY. THE
FRONT SHOULD TEND TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY SW...AND S BELOW 5 KFT ON SAT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

A SHARP SEABREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON
FRI...RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE RATHER DEEP...BUT WEAK...WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MUCH BETTER PROGRESS INLAND ON SAT
GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW.

IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. EITHER WAY...BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE
80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRI...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE. THE BEACHES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS WILL BE
WARMEST ON FRI...PERHAPS REACHING 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT.

GIVEN SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL LINGER AND DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISPLACE FRI...WILL INCLUDE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FRI EVE ACROSS PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SAT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES BECOME SIGNIFICANT...IN
EXCESS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...INDICATIVE OF GOOD INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 7 DEG C/KM WHICH SHOULD
HINDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. STILL...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE
95. WILL CARRY UP TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THIS TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE SUN/MON.
UPPER IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY AROUND BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL TRACK
NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN AND MON. THIS OCCURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES...OR NEARLY 2 SD`S
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID
60S...SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BOTH SUN AND MON AFTN. ML LAPSE
RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL HOWEVER...5-6 C/KM...SO WHILE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD...SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.

BY TUESDAY...UPPER VORT SWINGS OFFSHORE LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES. WHILE
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE MOIST...OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
DECREASED ON TUESDAY...AND EVEN MORESO WED/THU WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
60S. A SLIGHT WARM UP MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN CIRRUS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT FOG FORMATION...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT/KFLO WHERE THE WINDS MAY BECOME
CALM/LIGHT JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT VFR ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
SCT CU DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. ALONG THE
COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH THESE TERMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR NC
WATERS THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE A SW RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO
THE MORNING. SEAS OVER SC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
WITH SW WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW TO SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE SHOULD KEEP WINDS 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF THE WATERS FRI NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
BACK TO THE N.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE CREATES PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WHILE
MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION/SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING
THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH E/SE SWELL WILL SLOWLY GROW IN AMPLITUDE
WITH AN INCREASING PERIOD DURING THE EXTENDED...TO
2-3FT/10SEC...WAVES WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH A S/SW WIND WAVE
OVERLAYING THE E/SE SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...RJD/JDW/RGZ