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000
FXUS62 KRAH 281759
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
159 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT NEAR KFAY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE RAH
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT KFAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL/SE NC WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS (MARGINALLY) MORE SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW...AND SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF
HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH VALLEY
OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN
YIELDS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM BY FRI-SAT.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281759
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
159 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT NEAR KFAY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE RAH
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT KFAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL/SE NC WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS (MARGINALLY) MORE SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW...AND SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF
HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH VALLEY
OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN
YIELDS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM BY FRI-SAT.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 281741
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL
CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3






000
FXUS62 KILM 281741
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL
CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3






000
FXUS62 KILM 281741
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL
CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3






000
FXUS62 KILM 281741
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL
CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3





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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281727
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
127 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERN FCST. SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION ALG IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SPLY ALG THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH SCT CONVECTION DVLPG.
CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER
JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES
3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON
INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL CONFINED TO EWN/OAJ. THEREFORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTH WINDS...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTN...MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL/LEP
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 281727
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
127 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERN FCST. SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION ALG IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SPLY ALG THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH SCT CONVECTION DVLPG.
CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER
JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES
3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON
INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL CONFINED TO EWN/OAJ. THEREFORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTH WINDS...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTN...MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL/LEP
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281710
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERN FCST. SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION ALG IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SPLY ALG THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH SCT CONVECTION DVLPG.
CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER
JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES
3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON
INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTN...MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281710
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERN FCST. SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION ALG IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SPLY ALG THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH SCT CONVECTION DVLPG.
CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER
JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES
3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON
INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTN...MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 281526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1126 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1126 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1126 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1126 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KILM 281450
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1050 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OVERALL SCT SKIES THIS
MORNING...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3





000
FXUS62 KILM 281450
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1050 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...MORNING CLOUD COVER HAMPERING OTHERWISE
RAPID MORNING TEMPERATURE CLIMBS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER IS THINNING AND SOON SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RAMP UP.
H5 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN AROUND -7
DEGREES MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
FOLLOW MAINLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. STILL...THESE FACTORS COULD
BRING MORE OF A HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING ...AS HIGH SFC
CAPES AND UPPER COOLING OVERLAP. SPC RETAINS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
OUR AREA DUE TO GOOD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING AND
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ROBUST BULK
SHEAR PARAMETERS. WITH INCREASING SUN...IGNITION OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO INTERTWINE IN THE MIX TO ADD
LOW-LEVEL BOOSTS SO THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM INITIATION.

STORM MOTION AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE PARAMETERS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...THROUGH A FORWARD MOTION CLOSE TO 30
MPH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO INCREASE DOWNDRAFT POWER. ANYTIME
AFTER 18Z SEEMS FAIR GAME FOR DISCREET STRONG STORMS...THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THE MAIN VORT
SPOKE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SLATED LATE TONIGHT AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO CLEAR THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SC FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OVERALL SCT SKIES THIS
MORNING...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
SW-WSW WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO
NNE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DOUG/3




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281414
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF
STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM
SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BACK EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NAGS HEAD TO GREENVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7FT SOUTH. WILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 16Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING
SEAS 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281414
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF
STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM
SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BACK EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NAGS HEAD TO GREENVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7FT SOUTH. WILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 16Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING
SEAS 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 281401
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF
STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM
SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BACK EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NAGS HEAD TO GREENVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7FT SOUTH. WILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 18Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING
SEAS 6-7FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281401
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF
STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM
SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BACK EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NAGS HEAD TO GREENVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7FT SOUTH. WILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 18Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING
SEAS 6-7FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL






000
FXUS62 KILM 281132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF FRONT MUCH
OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.
WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM CWA. WHERE
HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS OCCURRENCE...IT
INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE
MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL
AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING
TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR
CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A
SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR
DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OVERALL SCT SKIES THIS
MORNING...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CHANCES INCREASE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SW-WSW
WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. DURING
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO NNE
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281130
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF THE COAST DURING THEN EVENING.

EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS... WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS...THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...IT
WILL SPELL THE END OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS EASTWARD
PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE APT TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES(SAMPSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SCOTLAND-HOKE). ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDER WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE
SUNSET...OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EASTERN PUSH OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR FEED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S
SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281130
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF THE COAST DURING THEN EVENING.

EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS... WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS...THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...IT
WILL SPELL THE END OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS EASTWARD
PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE APT TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES(SAMPSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SCOTLAND-HOKE). ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDER WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE
SUNSET...OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EASTERN PUSH OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR FEED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S
SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE
SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM
SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING
INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH
STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E
OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA
AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND
DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND OFF THE
COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BACK EDGE IS CURRENTLY THROUGH
RDU/FAY AREA. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-6FT SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ
GUSTS TO 25KT AND SEAS 4-6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW
WINDS 10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE
SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM
SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING
INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH
STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E
OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA
AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND
DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND OFF THE
COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BACK EDGE IS CURRENTLY THROUGH
RDU/FAY AREA. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-6FT SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ
GUSTS TO 25KT AND SEAS 4-6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW
WINDS 10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 280840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 440 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION...WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN
SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI
VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
WITH SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS
TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER
ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN
STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL












000
FXUS62 KMHX 280840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 440 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION...WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN
SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI
VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
WITH SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS
TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER
ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN
STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL












000
FXUS62 KMHX 280840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 440 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION...WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN
SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI
VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
WITH SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS
TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER
ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN
STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL












000
FXUS62 KMHX 280840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 440 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION...WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN
SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI
VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
WITH SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS
TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER
ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN
STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL












000
FXUS62 KILM 280830
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TWO TYPES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA TO DEAL WITH
THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD RESULT WITH INJURY AND/OR POSSIBLY
BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

THE 1ST DEALS WITH THE 3 H`S...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
90S. WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM
CWA. WHERE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS
OCCURRENCE...IT INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

THE 2ND DEALS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM
AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING
UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE
MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE
HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN
LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SW-WSW
WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. DURING
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO NNE
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 280830
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TWO TYPES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA TO DEAL WITH
THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD RESULT WITH INJURY AND/OR POSSIBLY
BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

THE 1ST DEALS WITH THE 3 H`S...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
90S. WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM
CWA. WHERE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS
OCCURRENCE...IT INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

THE 2ND DEALS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM
AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING
UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE
MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE
HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN
LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SW-WSW
WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. DURING
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
VEER FROM WSW TO NW INITIALLY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE N TO NNE
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AND FURTHER RELAX EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND ONLY DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE CFP.
WIND DRIVEN WAVES OR CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
SPECTRUM WITH DOMINATING PERIODS OF ONLY 5 TO 6 SECONDS. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 280816
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
416 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TWO TYPES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA TO DEAL WITH
THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD RESULT WITH INJURY AND/OR POSSIBLY
BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

THE 1ST DEALS WITH THE 3 H`S...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
90S. WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM
CWA. WHERE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS
OCCURRENCE...IT INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

THE 2ND DEALS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM
AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING
UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE
MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE
HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN
LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KILM 280816
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
416 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TWO TYPES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA TO DEAL WITH
THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD RESULT WITH INJURY AND/OR POSSIBLY
BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

THE 1ST DEALS WITH THE 3 H`S...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
90S. WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM
CWA. WHERE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS
OCCURRENCE...IT INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES.

THE 2ND DEALS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM
AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING
UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS
ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE
MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE
HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS
FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN
LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KMHX 280733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM ...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK TODAY...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY
17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS
EASTWARD. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN ATMOSPHERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 280733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM ...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK TODAY...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY
17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS
EASTWARD. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN ATMOSPHERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL










000
FXUS62 KILM 280710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF
ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID
80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP.

DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN
THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI
AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE
SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID
FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE
MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND
DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KRAH 280642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COAST DURING THEN EVENING.

EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS... WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS...THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...IT
WILL SPELL THE END OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS EASTWARD
PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE APT TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES(SAMPSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SCOTLAND-HOKE). ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDER WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE
SUNSET...OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EASTERN PUSH OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR FEED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S
SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...

BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COAST DURING THEN EVENING.

EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS... WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS...THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...IT
WILL SPELL THE END OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS EASTWARD
PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE APT TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES(SAMPSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SCOTLAND-HOKE). ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDER WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE
SUNSET...OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EASTERN PUSH OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR FEED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S
SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...

BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KILM 280607
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 280607
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 280607
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 280607
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH
THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS
AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
THIS AM.

FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270
DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280500
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...

A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.

IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW
IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR
TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED
IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON.
INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...

BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280500
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...

A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.

IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW
IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR
TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED
IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON.
INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...

BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TO THE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT
RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT
INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LIKELY INLAND. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW
FLOW AND HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...SW WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN
INCREASING TREND IN WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON
MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 280445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TO THE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT
RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT
INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LIKELY INLAND. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW
FLOW AND HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...SW WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN
INCREASING TREND IN WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON
MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KRAH 280214
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...

A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.

IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW
IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR
TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED
IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON.
INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...

GOOD INSTABILITY REMAINED LATE IN THE EVENING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...THE LEADING COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TENDED TO HEAD TOWARD THE BETTER MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES TOWARD UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND JUST
WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME PARAMETERS STILL FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION UPSTREAM TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE VARIES FROM DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA ON THE RAP MODEL...A STARK CHANGE FROM AFTERNOON RUNS...TO
STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
THE GUIDANCE TRENDS AND THE KGSO 00Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...UPDATED
TAFS TO BE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN CONDITIONS...BUT LEFT STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH A GUSTY WIND GIVEN CONTINUED
INSTABILITY...SURFACE WINDS REMAINING GUSTY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE WEST...AND ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN EVOLVING CONDITIONS.
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
AND RADAR TRENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KILM 280214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1014 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR




000
FXUS62 KILM 280214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1014 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR




000
FXUS62 KILM 280214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1014 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR




000
FXUS62 KILM 280214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1014 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
WILL SEE A THICKENING OF THE CLOUD COVER. ON THE FENCE WHETHER WE
WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES FROM IT. THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST FRINGES. IN ANY
CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW IMPACT EVENT...WITH ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP
IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RANGE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPDATE AS IT BECOMES CLEARER AS TO ITS STAYING
POWER. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280212
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TOT
HE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER
ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. LIGHT TO  MODERATE SW FLOW AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION REACHING AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING MTNS BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS INSTAB SLOWLY WEAKENS SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING
CONVECTION TIL LATER IN AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL ADD
VCTS TO EWN AND OAJ LATER MON AFTN. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...SW WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS
CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN INCREASING TREND IN
WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/HSA/JAC












000
FXUS62 KMHX 280212
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TOT
HE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER
ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. LIGHT TO  MODERATE SW FLOW AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION REACHING AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING MTNS BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS INSTAB SLOWLY WEAKENS SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING
CONVECTION TIL LATER IN AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL ADD
VCTS TO EWN AND OAJ LATER MON AFTN. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...SW WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS
CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN INCREASING TREND IN
WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/HSA/JAC













000
FXUS62 KRAH 280016
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...

A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.

IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY...

GOOD INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR
FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING
STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280016
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...

A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.

IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY...

GOOD INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR
FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING
STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KILM 272332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...CANCELED THE HEAT ADVISORY EARLY AS
CRITERIA WAS NOT BEING MET. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS HIT THE 105
DEGREE F HEAT INDEX LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY BRIEFLY. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT
A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE
HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION UNDER FULL SUN AND
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT
APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM
APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY
INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR




000
FXUS62 KILM 272332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...CANCELED THE HEAT ADVISORY EARLY AS
CRITERIA WAS NOT BEING MET. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS HIT THE 105
DEGREE F HEAT INDEX LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY BRIEFLY. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT
A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE
HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION UNDER FULL SUN AND
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT
APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM
APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY
INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR




000
FXUS62 KILM 272332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...CANCELED THE HEAT ADVISORY EARLY AS
CRITERIA WAS NOT BEING MET. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS HIT THE 105
DEGREE F HEAT INDEX LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY BRIEFLY. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT
A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE
HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION UNDER FULL SUN AND
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT
APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM
APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY
INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR




000
FXUS62 KILM 272332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...CANCELED THE HEAT ADVISORY EARLY AS
CRITERIA WAS NOT BEING MET. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS HIT THE 105
DEGREE F HEAT INDEX LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONLY BRIEFLY. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT
A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE
HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION UNDER FULL SUN AND
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT
APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM
APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY
INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTI-CELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR




000
FXUS62 KILM 272302
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR












000
FXUS62 KILM 272302
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR












000
FXUS62 KILM 272302
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR












000
FXUS62 KILM 272302
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...NOT MUCH HAPPENING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7-8KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...PERHAPS 5-6SM AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...WORST CAST. MONDAY...ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DROPPING IN DURING THE EVENING. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL APPROACH
3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
TWO INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR












000
FXUS62 KRAH 272256
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...

AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.

NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY...

GOOD INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR
FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING
STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 272256
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...

AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.

NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY...

GOOD INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR
FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING
STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 272256
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...

AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.

NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY...

GOOD INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR
FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING
STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 272256
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...

AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.

NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SUNDAY...

GOOD INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW IN GENERAL...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR
FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING
STORMS...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR
SOME CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST...AND AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 272235
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. STRONG CONVECTION APPROACHING WRN NC MTNS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN LATER BUT SVRL MDLS SHOW SOME ACTVTY POSS REACHING AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DROPPED POPS THRU MID TO LATE EVENING
THEN HAVE LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW TIER. MODERATE SW FLOW AND
HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO
80 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION REACHING AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING MTNS BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS INSTAB SLOWLY WEAKENS SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING
CONVECTION TIL LATER IN AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL ADD
VCTS TO EWN AND OAJ LATER MON AFTN. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 630 PM SUN...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH SW WINDS INCREASING THIS
EVENING AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WTRS.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/HSA/JAC









000
FXUS62 KMHX 272235
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. STRONG CONVECTION APPROACHING WRN NC MTNS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN LATER BUT SVRL MDLS SHOW SOME ACTVTY POSS REACHING AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DROPPED POPS THRU MID TO LATE EVENING
THEN HAVE LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW TIER. MODERATE SW FLOW AND
HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO
80 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION REACHING AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING MTNS BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS INSTAB SLOWLY WEAKENS SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING
CONVECTION TIL LATER IN AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL ADD
VCTS TO EWN AND OAJ LATER MON AFTN. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 630 PM SUN...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH SW WINDS INCREASING THIS
EVENING AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WTRS.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/HSA/JAC










000
FXUS62 KRAH 271943
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...

AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.

NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271943
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...

AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.

NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271943
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...

AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.

NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271943
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...

AFTER A COOL START OWING TO ABUNDANT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
IN AN AREA OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV...COINCIDENT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85
TEMPS AT KBNA. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NW TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN
NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2
RANGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NC...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN MCV MOVING ESE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AMIDST INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE FINALLY PICKED UP ON THIS POTENTIAL.
WILL ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AROUND
00Z.

NWP GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY
A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. THOUGH THERE REMAINS OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG)...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL FROM NWP GUIDANCE IS FOR THE CINH TO
WIN OUT AND CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH INVOF HWY 64 BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SENDING ONLY A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST NORTH) SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY
AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 271934
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPARSELY-LOCATED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK..ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE RISK OF
STRONG STORMS JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 271934
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH
DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC
EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING
VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS
ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION
UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING
WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT
OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT
TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE
SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR
IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO
AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM
FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-104F RANGE.

TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH
THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED
WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL
LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING
THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING
DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE
ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC
FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST.

ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER
ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT
HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPARSELY-LOCATED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK..ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE RISK OF
STRONG STORMS JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5
FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...
BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY
MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED
NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN
THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY
FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-
     053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR










000
FXUS62 KMHX 271934
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...CONVECTION IN EASTERN KY/SOUTHWEST VA WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING POSSIBLY BRUSHING
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH 03Z. NOT MUCH OVERNIGHT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION SO HAVE KEPT
IT DRY. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND TAF SITES PGV/ISO FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMININSHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN END AND NOT DO NOT MENTION VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
SITES (EWN/OAJ)...BASED ON THIS TRENDS. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WITH SW FLOW BTW 5-10 KTS....THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING
FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS...SCATTERED AT PGV
AND ISO...NUMEROUS CLOSER TO THE COAST AT OAJ AND EWN. STORMS
CLOSER TO THE COAST COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KNOTS ALONG WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 330 PM SUN...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20
KNOTS BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON
LATEST DATA IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50
KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...BM/JAC
MARINE...HSA/JAC






000
FXUS62 KRAH 271928
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
328 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLBY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 271928
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
328 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER
TREND NOTED IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z
MON. INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLBY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271915
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271915
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271915
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271915
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271808
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271808
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHOSE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT...MAY FORM IN-SITU
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KMTV TO KRDU TO KCTZ. IN
ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (AT KRWI) THROUGH 20Z. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN KY...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NC...LIKELY IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATE...BETWEEN 02-08Z. THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AT TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PROBABILITIES TOWARD KRDU/KRWI AND ESPECIALLY
KFAY. DESPITE THE PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL NC...A WELL-ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS (STRONGEST AT KRDU/KRWI) MAY
SURGE ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

A BREEZY WSW WIND EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER TO WEST OR WNW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC...WITH AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STORM AT KRWI AND KFAY...AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KILM 271726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS BECOME
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR ZONES HAS DIMINISHED.
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR AREA.
THE BROAD SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO
ACTIVITY IS ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR
MASS BY APPARENT FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR
AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPARSELY-LOCATED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK..ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE RISK OF
STRONG STORMS JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA BREEZE
ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN ADVISORY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND- WAVES
FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT 8-10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
 AVIATION...SGL/MJC






000
FXUS62 KILM 271726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS BECOME
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR ZONES HAS DIMINISHED.
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR AREA.
THE BROAD SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO
ACTIVITY IS ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR
MASS BY APPARENT FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR
AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPARSELY-LOCATED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK..ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE RISK OF
STRONG STORMS JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA BREEZE
ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN ADVISORY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND- WAVES
FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT 8-10
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
 AVIATION...SGL/MJC







000
FXUS62 KRAH 271637
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1236 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 271637
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1236 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 271637
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1236 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 271637
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1236 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

MCV AND OUTFLOW-RELATED ASCENT...AND ASSOCIATED MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG STORMS (WITH 40-45 KTS SAMPLED NEAR THE JOHNSTON/WAYNE CO
BORDER BY KRAX RECENTLY)...HAVE MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
RAH CWFA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 20Z PER NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE. ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED ARC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCV-RELATED STORMS...IN A ZONE OF QG FORCING FOR ASCENT...FORCED BY
BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AS WELL AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
OF THIS TRAILING...WEAKER CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
MID-HIGH CLOUD WILL THIN AND PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
HEATING TO DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...COINCIDENT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LEADING EDGE OF HOT/22C 12Z-OBSERVED H85 TEMPS AT
KBNA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE NORTHEAST/OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO NOT CLIMB AS
READILY/TO AROUND 90 DEGREES OR SO...OWING TO BOTH THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF H85 HEAT (AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING)
AND LINGERING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

IN FACT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE WAA REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST AND EARLIER RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC. IF SUCH A BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE WHAT NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WILL BE ALREADY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 250-400 MS/S2 RANGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC...FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL BE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL JET AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER MID WEST UPPER LOW EMERGES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENS KGSO AND KRNK 12Z-OBSERVED MID LEVEL
FLOW OF ALREADY RESPECTABLE 35-40 KTS...INTO THE 45-55 KT RANGE THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NC...PARTICULARLY
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WHETHER OR NOT STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES DURING THAT TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN-SITU OVER CENTRAL NC
INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT...AMIDST INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...THOUGH ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN NWP SOLUTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
INSTEAD SUGGESTS THAT INCIPIENT STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING...AND INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR DIMINISHES - AND WHEN CINH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED - DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...WILL ADVERTISE A
CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(INVOF THE BOUNDARY) THROUGH THIS EVENING - WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A MULTI-FACETED SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WOULD THEN POSE PRIMARILY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EXPECTED TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SVR RISK TOO WILL BE A CONDITIONAL ONE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...GIVEN OPPOSING SIGNALS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE (IE. STRONG AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW VERSUS STRONG CINH (NEAR 200
J/KG) THAT MAY PROVE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME).

REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE MUGGY AND QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KILM 271511
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 271511
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 271511
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 271511
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...SUSTAINING ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH LINGERING TEPID AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE SEA.
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 271500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH HOT
AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK
WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINE TO COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
NIGHT BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE THE SEA. WILL NEED TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY COULD MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE
CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 271500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH HOT
AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK
WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINE TO COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
NIGHT BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE THE SEA. WILL NEED TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY COULD MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE
CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 271500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH HOT
AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK
WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINE TO COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
NIGHT BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE THE SEA. WILL NEED TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY COULD MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE
CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 271500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM SUNDAY...A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS BECOMING
UNRAVELED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS LATE MORNING...AND AM
ANTICIPATING THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY...WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A FLORENCE SC TO LUMBERTON NC CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE IS SET
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AIR ALOFT DOMED OVER OUR REGION. THE BROAD
SCALE RIDGE LIKELY WINS OUT...AND ISOLATED TO NO ACTIVITY IS ON
TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A BROILING AIR MASS BY APPARENT
FEEL STANDARDS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND OVERALL HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 103 TO 108...HIGHEST SC INTERIOR AND LOWEST IMMEDIATE
COASTAL STRIPS.

THE LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
THE ENGINE THAT PROPELS A VIGOROUS SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND S
WINDS GUSTS ALONG BEACHES OF 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MID
AND PREVAILING INTO EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH HOT
AIR WILL SPELL MILD TO WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY DAYBREAK
WITH INCREASING SW WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. POPS/SHRA/TSTMS
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINE TO COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS
NIGHT BUOYANCY INCREASES OVER THE THE SEA. WILL NEED TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK IN THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY COULD MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE
CAPE FEAR REGION EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AS SUSTAINED 15-20 KT SW
WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE ALLOW 20 KT GUSTS TO BECOME COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT DROP IN SPEEDS...SO AT MINIMUM AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN
ADVISORY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEA ENERGY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND-
WAVES FROM THE SSW 3-4 FT AT 5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT AT
8-10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271407
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT IS DRIVING LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MID-STATE AT PRESENT. BELIEVE THIS LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO COVER ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
19Z. TAPERED POPS FROM AROUND 40% NORTH TO 20% SOUTH. EXPECT LINE
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MIDSTATE AT
PRESENT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY AFFECTED WILL BE PGV AND ISO...LESS
SO AT EWN AND OAJ. CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER ABOUT 19Z.

PREV DISC...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING HAS
MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NO FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271407
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT IS DRIVING LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MID-STATE AT PRESENT. BELIEVE THIS LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO COVER ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
19Z. TAPERED POPS FROM AROUND 40% NORTH TO 20% SOUTH. EXPECT LINE
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MIDSTATE AT
PRESENT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY AFFECTED WILL BE PGV AND ISO...LESS
SO AT EWN AND OAJ. CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER ABOUT 19Z.

PREV DISC...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING HAS
MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NO FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL







000
FXUS62 KILM 271207
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 271207
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 271207
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 271207
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











000
FXUS62 KILM 271204
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 271204
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG.

MOSTLY MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. EXPECT
THIS TO MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...GIVING WAY TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANTICIPATE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...POSSIBLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 271200
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KILM 271200
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING AND UNUSUALLY STRONG LATE JULY COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY FORCE SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST AND SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SUNDAY...UPDATES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MESO-SCALE VORTICY POISED TO SPIN AND GRAZE OUR NW
ZONES FROM A BENNETTSVILLE TO LUMBERTON CORRIDOR. ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDE SKY COVER INCREASES AND A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
AND NORTH OF THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EXCLUDING PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KRAH 271158
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/WAVES OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION--INITIALLY BY THE MCV ENTERING
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN PERHAPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
FORM UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-
70KT MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION.

MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
MIDDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN WEAKENING FASHION AS IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV
COULD RESULT IN A LULL IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
PERHAPS INCREASING THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...STRENGTHENING SHEAR OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS COUPLED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-
7.25 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT INSOLATION THROUGH AT LEAST LUNCH TIME...AND POSSIBLY ON
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEMPER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 90 TO 95....WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
HEAT INDICES 100 F OR LESS.  MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 271158
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/WAVES OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION--INITIALLY BY THE MCV ENTERING
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN PERHAPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
FORM UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-
70KT MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION.

MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
MIDDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN WEAKENING FASHION AS IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV
COULD RESULT IN A LULL IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
PERHAPS INCREASING THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...STRENGTHENING SHEAR OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS COUPLED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-
7.25 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT INSOLATION THROUGH AT LEAST LUNCH TIME...AND POSSIBLY ON
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEMPER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 90 TO 95....WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
HEAT INDICES 100 F OR LESS.  MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 271158
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/WAVES OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION--INITIALLY BY THE MCV ENTERING
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN PERHAPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
FORM UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-
70KT MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION.

MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
MIDDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN WEAKENING FASHION AS IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV
COULD RESULT IN A LULL IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
PERHAPS INCREASING THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...STRENGTHENING SHEAR OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS COUPLED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-
7.25 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT INSOLATION THROUGH AT LEAST LUNCH TIME...AND POSSIBLY ON
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEMPER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 90 TO 95....WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
HEAT INDICES 100 F OR LESS.  MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 271158
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/WAVES OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION--INITIALLY BY THE MCV ENTERING
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN PERHAPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
FORM UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-
70KT MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION.

MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
MIDDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN WEAKENING FASHION AS IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV
COULD RESULT IN A LULL IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
PERHAPS INCREASING THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...STRENGTHENING SHEAR OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS COUPLED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-
7.25 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT INSOLATION THROUGH AT LEAST LUNCH TIME...AND POSSIBLY ON
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEMPER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 90 TO 95....WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
HEAT INDICES 100 F OR LESS.  MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 271128
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/WAVES OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION--INITIALLY BY THE MCV ENTERING
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN PERHAPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
FORM UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-
70KT MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION.

MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
MIDDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN WEAKENING FASHION AS IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV
COULD RESULT IN A LULL IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
PERHAPS INCREASING THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...STRENGTHENING SHEAR OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS COUPLED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-
7.25 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT INSOLATION THROUGH AT LEAST LUNCH TIME...AND POSSIBLY ON
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEMPER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 90 TO 95....WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
HEAT INDICES 100 F OR LESS.  MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/NP/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 271128
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/WAVES OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION--INITIALLY BY THE MCV ENTERING
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN PERHAPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
FORM UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-
70KT MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION.

MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
MIDDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SHOULD
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN WEAKENING FASHION AS IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV
COULD RESULT IN A LULL IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
PERHAPS INCREASING THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...STRENGTHENING SHEAR OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS COUPLED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-
7.25 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT INSOLATION THROUGH AT LEAST LUNCH TIME...AND POSSIBLY ON
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEMPER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 90 TO 95....WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP
HEAT INDICES 100 F OR LESS.  MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...

AN MCV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINT
AND KGSO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY IF STORMS POSE A
THREAT.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY/KENTUCKY COULD POTENTIALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/NP/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KILM 271042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT. AT
THIS POINT...ALL OF THE ILM CWA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2
NC COUNTIES ARE UNDER THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE BEST DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS/MCC REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE FA WILL
HAVE TO BE DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOW THICK AND/OR OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS REMAIN AS
THEY CROSS THE ILM CWA COULD REDUCE TODAYS MAX TEMPS BY 1 TO 3
DEGREES...TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS OF COURSE REMAINS HOT BUT
COULD JEOPARDIZE THE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY IN AFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KILM 271042
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT. AT
THIS POINT...ALL OF THE ILM CWA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2
NC COUNTIES ARE UNDER THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE BEST DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS/MCC REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE FA WILL
HAVE TO BE DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOW THICK AND/OR OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS REMAIN AS
THEY CROSS THE ILM CWA COULD REDUCE TODAYS MAX TEMPS BY 1 TO 3
DEGREES...TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS OF COURSE REMAINS HOT BUT
COULD JEOPARDIZE THE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY IN AFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND LATER PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED INTO
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COMPLEX IS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVE FURTHER EAST AND IN FACT RADAR IS SHOWING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CANT RULE OUT THAT AREA GETTING
PRECIPITATION.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING
HAS MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NOT FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 612 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED INTO
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COMPLEX IS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVE FURTHER EAST AND IN FACT RADAR IS SHOWING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CANT RULE OUT THAT AREA GETTING
PRECIPITATION.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING
HAS MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NOT FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 612 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED INTO
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COMPLEX IS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVE FURTHER EAST AND IN FACT RADAR IS SHOWING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CANT RULE OUT THAT AREA GETTING
PRECIPITATION.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING
HAS MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NOT FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 612 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED INTO
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COMPLEX IS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVE FURTHER EAST AND IN FACT RADAR IS SHOWING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CANT RULE OUT THAT AREA GETTING
PRECIPITATION.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING
HAS MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NOT FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 612 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL







000
FXUS62 KILM 270820
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
420 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT. AT THIS
POINT...ALL OF THE ILM CWA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2 NC
COUNTIES ARE UNDER THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE BEST DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS/MCC REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE FA WILL
HAVE TO BE DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOW THICK AND/OR OPAQUE THESE CLOUDS REMAIN AS
THEY CROSS THE ILM CWA COULD REDUCE TODAYS MAX TEMPS BY 1 TO 3
DEGREES...TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS OF COURSE REMAINS HOT BUT
COULD JEOPARDIZE THE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY IN AFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE STORY TONIGHT THRU SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. A
TIGHTENING SFC PG WILL OCCUR WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR AN ACTIVE SW WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RANGE OF 75-80 DEGREES COMMON. LACK OF DYNAMICS IE.
FORCING...TO SUPPORT LET ALONE INITIATE CONVECTION REMAIN THE
STORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH NO POPS THRU DAYBREAK MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING SW WINDS AND
SLOWLY BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RULE THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A SCEC FOR TONIGHT AND MON PERIODS...OR POSSIBLY GO
STRAIGHT WITH A SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS ON THE CUSP OF PRODUCING SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LIKELY DURING MONDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL YIELD SW WINDS THAT INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
TODAY...AND 15 TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS SUSTAINED 25 KT
LATER TONIGHT. WILL ATLEAST HAVE FEW/OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TODAY...3 TO 5 FT
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR ACROSS FRYING PAN
SHOALS LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 3 TO 6 SECOND
PERIODS WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE PLAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. THE
ESE-SE DOMINATE GROUND SWELL OF THE PAST WEEK WILL REMAIN EVIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS JUST SMALLER IN HEIGHT...VIA CURRENT BUOY
DATA AND LATEST WAVEWATCH3 MODEL DATA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT
BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
BUT BY MID MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTION. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KMHX 270751
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO MODELS ALSO
PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL WRF
SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100
DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 154 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WILL SEE SPEEDS PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH SEAS PICKING UP TO 3 TO 4
FEET.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 270751
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO MODELS ALSO
PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL WRF
SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100
DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 154 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WILL SEE SPEEDS PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH SEAS PICKING UP TO 3 TO 4
FEET.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL









000
FXUS62 KILM 270730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT BY MID
AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MID
MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SEAS FROM 4
TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 270730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MON WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE FOR TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 20C RANGE
KEEP THE HEAT ON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE SEA BREEZE
CONFINED TO SMALL CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SE
BRUNSWICK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA.

STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON BUT COVERAGE IS
LOOKING LESS CERTAIN. A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST BEFORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING
MID LEVEL CAP. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. MLCAPE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY EXCEED
2500 J/KG...JUST AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL. FORECAST
AREA IS IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF JETTING ALOFT...THOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM PORTRAY A WEAKER JET
WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TAKING SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. JUST NOT SURE WHAT COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE
LIKE GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT. SPC SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.

SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE ON TAP FOR TUE...SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL HAS ARRIVED EARLY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH...MORE THAN -2 SD
FROM WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR THE END OF JULY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE INHERITED DRY BUT
NOT ZERO POP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H TROUGH AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...PREVENTING ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. INSTEAD DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS ON FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES INTO FRI. TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 5H
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BACKS FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE EXTENT OF THE INCREASE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. WHILE
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CANNOT SAY IF ANY WILL ACTUALLY EXIST GIVEN THE
TIME FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WED WITH SILENT POP THU/FRI
AND LOW CHC FOR SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 90 WHILE LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR THE WATERS AT SOME POINT
MON. EVENT MAY END UP AS A MARGINAL SCA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WINDS WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
COMBINED WITH INCREASING SPEEDS MON COULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT BY MID
AFTERNOON. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF PERIOD WITH PINCHED GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MID
MORNING TUE SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION.
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SEAS FROM 4
TO 6 FT PRE FRONT TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST AND
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KRAH 270715
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/WAVES OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION--INITIALLY BY THE MCV ENTERING
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN PERHAPS LATER BY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT FORM UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION.

MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BY MIDDAY.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORCING
WILL RESULT RE-NEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...STRENGTHENING SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS COUPLED WITH THE
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CHARACTERIZED
BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.25 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS OVERNIGHT BUT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
REGION...UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: ENOUGH RESIDUAL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR TO LIMIT
INSOLATION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TRIAD...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PROBABLE IN THE TRIANGLE
AREA FROM MID-LATE MORNING UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. IF THIS CLOUDINESS
MATERIALIZES...THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT TEMPS. HAVE SHADED MAX TEMPS
DOWN OF COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THUS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S STILL APPEAR
ON TRACK WITH HEAT INDICES 102-104 DEGREES LIKELY. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING
THE MOIST UNSTABLE REGIME SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. MCS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
ASSOCIATED DEBRIS CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH A STEADY 5-6KT SWLY
BREEZE WILL DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE IN LOW-LYING FOG PRONE AREAS LIKE KRWI.

POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN TIER TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE COVERAGE.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/NP/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270715
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/WAVES OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION--INITIALLY BY THE MCV ENTERING
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN PERHAPS LATER BY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT FORM UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION.

MCV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BY MIDDAY.
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORCING
WILL RESULT RE-NEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...STRENGTHENING SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS COUPLED WITH THE
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CHARACTERIZED
BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.25 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POPS OVERNIGHT BUT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
REGION...UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500-1000J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: ENOUGH RESIDUAL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR TO LIMIT
INSOLATION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TRIAD...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PROBABLE IN THE TRIANGLE
AREA FROM MID-LATE MORNING UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. IF THIS CLOUDINESS
MATERIALIZES...THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT TEMPS. HAVE SHADED MAX TEMPS
DOWN OF COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THUS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S STILL APPEAR
ON TRACK WITH HEAT INDICES 102-104 DEGREES LIKELY. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS MODELS HAVE PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING
THE MOIST UNSTABLE REGIME SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUMPING
EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. IN FACT IF THESE RECENT TRENDS
CONTINUE OF SHIFTING THE CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ANOTHER MODEL ITERATION OR TWO
BEFORE DECREASING POPS.

SEVERE THREAT: STRONG 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS EASTERN NC...ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER/MID 90S
SE. THE COOL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID/UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE OHIO/MS RIVER VALLEYS. AS A
RESULT...THE FRONT WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
MODELS INDICATE A WAVE(S) A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT BY THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE RANGE BY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. MCS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
ASSOCIATED DEBRIS CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH A STEADY 5-6KT SWLY
BREEZE WILL DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE IN LOW-LYING FOG PRONE AREAS LIKE KRWI.

POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN TIER TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE COVERAGE.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/NP/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KILM 270502
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
102 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 270502
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
102 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY
HRS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR ACROSS SITES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF
ALLOWING FOG TO TEMPORARILY DEVELOP. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS
SHOULD STAY AT 5 KT OR HIER LIMITING FOG FORMATION.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY PICK UP DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SFC PG. EXPECT SW 10G15KT EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS WILL
SEE WINDS BACK TO SSW 10G20KT FROM THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS KEEP
THIS INCREASED FLOW WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE INITIATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
AND ALSO THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. WHATS CONCERNING IS THE
MCC/MCS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ATTM. MODELS WANT TO
TAKE IT APART AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
LEFTOVER TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENG. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PASSAGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270458
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. ALSO...INDICATIONS THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY MORNING MAY INHIBIT INSOLATION UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INITIAL S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. W-NW FLOW
ALOFT HAS SPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...THICKEST OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. WHILE EXPECT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THIN WITH TIME...OPAQUENESS MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD VICINITY. ALSO...ARRIVAL
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING AT 02Z ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE AND CROSS THE SW VA/NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIZZLE AS IT ADVANCES EAST PAST THE MOUNTAINS BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR TO LIMIT INSOLATION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PROBABLE IN THE TRIANGLE AREA FROM MID-LATE MORNING UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. IF THIS CLOUDINESS MATERIALIZES...THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT TEMPS. HAVE SHADED MAX TEMPS DOWN OF COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THUS MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HEAT INDICES 102-
104 DEGREES LIKELY.

MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING OCCUR ALONG THE
VA BORDER COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MCV MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. -WSS

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND
NAM TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z MONDAY THEN MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z MON. DESPITE THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE
MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY QPF ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING IT AND LOW LEVEL NIGHT-TIME STABILITY.  ANY CONVECTION
THAT CAN GET GOING OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT STILL
WORTH CLOSE WATCHING. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS AND HIGH HEAT INDICES.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 94 NW TO AROUND 98
SE. WITH DWPTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE...HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-103 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN ZONES. WHILE THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WE HAVE
HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR CURRENT HWO. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -NP

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE
THROUGH NY AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT. THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95 FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. IN THIS FAVORED
REGION...MODELS ARE FORECASTING MUCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-
8.5 DEG/KM...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 DEG/KM. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. GIVEN THAT ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT CONVECTION...
WHERE IT DEVELOPS...TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE MUCH OVER CENTRAL NC. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION WILL FALL APART AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND/OR REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DEFINITELY EXISTS AND SHOULD IT DEVELOP
ITS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING WITH REGARD TO WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
ALSO...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (SHOULD IT OCCUR) MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN
LIMITING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO MID
90S SE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER...TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUE/WED NIGHTS AND LOW
TO MID 60S THU/FRI NIGHTS. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE NW FRI/SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST AND
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. MCS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
ASSOCIATED DEBRIS CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH A STEADY 5-6KT SWLY
BREEZE WILL DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE IN LOW-LYING FOG PRONE AREAS LIKE KRWI.

POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN TIER TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE COVERAGE.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/NP/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 270458
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. ALSO...INDICATIONS THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY MORNING MAY INHIBIT INSOLATION UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INITIAL S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. W-NW FLOW
ALOFT HAS SPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...THICKEST OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. WHILE EXPECT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THIN WITH TIME...OPAQUENESS MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD VICINITY. ALSO...ARRIVAL
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING AT 02Z ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE AND CROSS THE SW VA/NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIZZLE AS IT ADVANCES EAST PAST THE MOUNTAINS BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR TO LIMIT INSOLATION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PROBABLE IN THE TRIANGLE AREA FROM MID-LATE MORNING UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. IF THIS CLOUDINESS MATERIALIZES...THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT TEMPS. HAVE SHADED MAX TEMPS DOWN OF COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THUS MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HEAT INDICES 102-
104 DEGREES LIKELY.

MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING OCCUR ALONG THE
VA BORDER COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MCV MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. -WSS

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND
NAM TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z MONDAY THEN MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z MON. DESPITE THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE
MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY QPF ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING IT AND LOW LEVEL NIGHT-TIME STABILITY.  ANY CONVECTION
THAT CAN GET GOING OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT STILL
WORTH CLOSE WATCHING. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS AND HIGH HEAT INDICES.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 94 NW TO AROUND 98
SE. WITH DWPTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE...HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-103 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN ZONES. WHILE THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WE HAVE
HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR CURRENT HWO. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -NP

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE
THROUGH NY AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT. THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95 FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. IN THIS FAVORED
REGION...MODELS ARE FORECASTING MUCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-
8.5 DEG/KM...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 DEG/KM. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. GIVEN THAT ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT CONVECTION...
WHERE IT DEVELOPS...TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE MUCH OVER CENTRAL NC. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION WILL FALL APART AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND/OR REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DEFINITELY EXISTS AND SHOULD IT DEVELOP
ITS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING WITH REGARD TO WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
ALSO...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (SHOULD IT OCCUR) MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN
LIMITING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO MID
90S SE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER...TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUE/WED NIGHTS AND LOW
TO MID 60S THU/FRI NIGHTS. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE NW FRI/SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST AND
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. MCS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
ASSOCIATED DEBRIS CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH A STEADY 5-6KT SWLY
BREEZE WILL DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE IN LOW-LYING FOG PRONE AREAS LIKE KRWI.

POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN TIER TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS
LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE COVERAGE.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
EASTERN NC IN PROXIMITY TO KRWI AMD KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/NP/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 270433
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1234 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1227 AM SUN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN
KENTUCKY MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEAK FRONT
THAT MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY IS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S THIS MORNING. LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED AND WIND SPEEDS ARE PICKING UP AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM...SO ORGANIZED FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SUN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET. WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS THIS PAST
AFTERNOON IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM INCREASING WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 270433
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1234 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1227 AM SUN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN
KENTUCKY MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEAK FRONT
THAT MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY IS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S THIS MORNING. LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED AND WIND SPEEDS ARE PICKING UP AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM...SO ORGANIZED FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SUN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET. WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS THIS PAST
AFTERNOON IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM INCREASING WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 270433
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1234 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1227 AM SUN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN
KENTUCKY MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEAK FRONT
THAT MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY IS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S THIS MORNING. LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED AND WIND SPEEDS ARE PICKING UP AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM...SO ORGANIZED FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SUN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET. WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS THIS PAST
AFTERNOON IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM INCREASING WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 270433
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1234 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1227 AM SUN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN
KENTUCKY MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEAK FRONT
THAT MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY IS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S THIS MORNING. LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED AND WIND SPEEDS ARE PICKING UP AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM...SO ORGANIZED FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SUN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET. WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS THIS PAST
AFTERNOON IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM INCREASING WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC










000
FXUS62 KILM 270259
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1059 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 KTS ALONG THE
COAST...PRECLUDING ANY FOG. INLAND...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 07-08Z...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-11Z. SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PICK UP WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 270259
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1059 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MONDAY...CREATING VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON MONDAY. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...SOME CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE THAT WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT A MILD ONE ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTIALLY A RESULT OF SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AMIDST A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALSO BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH
TD VALUES LIMITING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. EXPECTING MIDDLE
70S AT DAYBREAK INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
CLOSER TO THE ICW/SEA...SUSTAINED SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS BOTH EXTREME HEAT/HEAT INDICES AND SPRING-LIKE
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE USHERED INTO THE AREA. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN
PLACE FOR ALL SOUTH CAROLINA INLAND COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
ROBESON...COLUMBUS...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL
ALSO FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AS WELL
WITH APPARENT TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEARING/AT/OR JUST ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES THANKS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 3. A STRONG AND VERY SPRING-LIKE DIGGING
TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE AREA IS NOT USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS
SUCH DURING THE MID-SUMMER MONTHS...THE SETUP IS BECOMING MUCH MORE
INTERESTING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 95+ TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY...WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN A TYPICAL
SETUP LIKE THIS FOR APRIL/MAY. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT LACK OF SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UNFAVORABLE
LOCATION/NATURE OF THE JET...FOCUS TURNS TO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA (MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING)...AND HAVE DECIDED TO UTILIZE GFS MORE IN
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN ANALYZING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES BY 18Z. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES TO
KICK-START MONDAY MORNING AND THUS AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. PER LATEST 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT THERMAL RIDGE IS
PRESENT...BUT AGAIN GIVEN ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY...AN ADJUSTED SKEW-T WOULD MAKE THIS OBSOLETE AND PRESENT ITSELF
AS A NEARLY-CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OTHER PARAMETERS...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP...WITH VALUES OF 6-7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE SHOWING TO BE ROUGHLY -6 TO -8. THIS WITH CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000+ AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WILL
CREATE QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE AREA. ALSO...DCAPE VALUES
WILL BE 300+...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ARE ILLUSTRATING A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SPEED
SHEAR VERSUS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SO WHILE EXPECT A LOW TORNADO
THREAT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE
CELLS/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION-WISE...WHILE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LIFT...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PLAY A ROLE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS WELL (LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING) AS IT
WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES CLOSER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BUT
BEING THAT THE EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL REMIND THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. ANY DECREASE/INCREASE IN SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
COULD CHANGE THINGS ENTIRELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FALL COMES EARLY THIS YEAR...OR SO IT
SEEMS...AS THE END OF JULY AND BEGINNING OF AUGUST FEATURE A PATTERN
RARELY SEEN IN MID-SUMMER. THIS FALL LIKE PATTERN IS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH...PROGGED TO REACH -4 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEN SITTING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
DRIER AIR...AS SHOWN BY PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1 INCH TUE-THU...AND A
THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL ALSO
STRUGGLE TO VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -2 SD`S...AND HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK...WILL KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRY TO BACK UP
TOWARDS THE COAST...CREATING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER POP
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 KTS ALONG THE
COAST...PRECLUDING ANY FOG. INLAND...BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE LIGHT FOG STARTING AROUND 07-08Z...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-11Z. SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PICK UP WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATING OFFSHORE...EQUATING TO A STEADY SW 10-15 KT TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A MIX
OF S WAVES OF 1-1.5 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 TO 2
FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ISOLATED AT BEST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT
WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST...LEAVING A RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...INCREASING SLOWLY TO 10-15
KTS BY THURSDAY. SEAS TUESDAY WILL BE 1-3 FT ON THE NW WINDS...BUT
THEN BECOME A MORE STEADY 2-3 FT LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE DOMINATING THE
WAVE SPECTRUM. SEAS THURSDAY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE
STRONGER WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-099-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SGL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270229
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. ALSO...INDICATIONS THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY MORNING MAY INHIBIT INSOLATION UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INITIAL S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. W-NW FLOW
ALOFT HAS SPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...THICKEST OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. WHILE EXPECT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THIN WITH TIME...OPAQUENESS MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD VICINITY. ALSO...ARRIVAL
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING AT 02Z ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE AND CROSS THE SW VA/NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIZZLE AS IT ADVANCES EAST PAST THE MOUNTAINS BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR TO LIMIT INSOLATION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PROBABLE IN THE TRIANGLE AREA FROM MID-LATE MORNING UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. IF THIS CLOUDINESS MATERIALIZES...THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT TEMPS. HAVE SHADED MAX TEMPS DOWN OF COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THUS MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HEAT INDICES 102-
104 DEGREES LIKELY.

MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING OCCUR ALONG THE
VA BORDER COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MCV MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. -WSS

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND
NAM TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z MONDAY THEN MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z MON. DESPITE THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE
MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY QPF ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING IT AND LOW LEVEL NIGHT-TIME STABILITY.  ANY CONVECTION
THAT CAN GET GOING OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT STILL
WORTH CLOSE WATCHING. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS AND HIGH HEAT INDICES.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 94 NW TO AROUND 98
SE. WITH DWPTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE...HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-103 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN ZONES. WHILE THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WE HAVE
HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR CURRENT HWO. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -NP

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE
THROUGH NY AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT. THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95 FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. IN THIS FAVORED
REGION...MODELS ARE FORECASTING MUCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-
8.5 DEG/KM...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 DEG/KM. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. GIVEN THAT ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT CONVECTION...
WHERE IT DEVELOPS...TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE MUCH OVER CENTRAL NC. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION WILL FALL APART AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND/OR REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DEFINITELY EXISTS AND SHOULD IT DEVELOP
ITS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING WITH REGARD TO WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
ALSO...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (SHOULD IT OCCUR) MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN
LIMITING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO MID
90S SE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER...TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUE/WED NIGHTS AND LOW
TO MID 60S THU/FRI NIGHTS. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE NW FRI/SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST AND
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONVECTION FURTHER UPSTREAM/WEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL HELP TO SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT (NO CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLY ROUGE
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST NEAR DAYBREAK). THIS COMBINED WITH
A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS OF A
CHANCE FOR SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY STILL SEE SOME MVFR VISBYS NEAR
DAYBREAK THOUGH... WITH FOG PRONE KRWI POSSIBLY SEE VISBYS RANGE
FROM LIFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW
THOUGH... SO WILL JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LOOK FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LATER IN THE DAY (MID MORNING ONWARD)...A BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL NC...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIME FRAME AND LOW CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION
OF CONVECTION AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... WE EXPECTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH....
POSSIBLY EVEN 25 MPH.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON
...ESP ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRDU TO KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/NP/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...BSD/NP



000
FXUS62 KRAH 270229
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. ALSO...INDICATIONS THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY MORNING MAY INHIBIT INSOLATION UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INITIAL S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. W-NW FLOW
ALOFT HAS SPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...THICKEST OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. WHILE EXPECT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THIN WITH TIME...OPAQUENESS MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD VICINITY. ALSO...ARRIVAL
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING AT 02Z ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE AND CROSS THE SW VA/NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIZZLE AS IT ADVANCES EAST PAST THE MOUNTAINS BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR TO LIMIT INSOLATION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PROBABLE IN THE TRIANGLE AREA FROM MID-LATE MORNING UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. IF THIS CLOUDINESS MATERIALIZES...THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT TEMPS. HAVE SHADED MAX TEMPS DOWN OF COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THUS MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HEAT INDICES 102-
104 DEGREES LIKELY.

MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING OCCUR ALONG THE
VA BORDER COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MCV MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. -WSS

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND
NAM TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z MONDAY THEN MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z MON. DESPITE THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE
MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY QPF ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING IT AND LOW LEVEL NIGHT-TIME STABILITY.  ANY CONVECTION
THAT CAN GET GOING OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT STILL
WORTH CLOSE WATCHING. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS AND HIGH HEAT INDICES.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 94 NW TO AROUND 98
SE. WITH DWPTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE...HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-103 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN ZONES. WHILE THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WE HAVE
HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR CURRENT HWO. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -NP

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE
THROUGH NY AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT. THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95 FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. IN THIS FAVORED
REGION...MODELS ARE FORECASTING MUCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-
8.5 DEG/KM...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 DEG/KM. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. GIVEN THAT ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT CONVECTION...
WHERE IT DEVELOPS...TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE MUCH OVER CENTRAL NC. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION WILL FALL APART AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND/OR REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DEFINITELY EXISTS AND SHOULD IT DEVELOP
ITS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING WITH REGARD TO WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
ALSO...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (SHOULD IT OCCUR) MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN
LIMITING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO MID
90S SE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER...TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUE/WED NIGHTS AND LOW
TO MID 60S THU/FRI NIGHTS. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE NW FRI/SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST AND
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONVECTION FURTHER UPSTREAM/WEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL HELP TO SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT (NO CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLY ROUGE
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST NEAR DAYBREAK). THIS COMBINED WITH
A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS OF A
CHANCE FOR SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY STILL SEE SOME MVFR VISBYS NEAR
DAYBREAK THOUGH... WITH FOG PRONE KRWI POSSIBLY SEE VISBYS RANGE
FROM LIFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW
THOUGH... SO WILL JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LOOK FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LATER IN THE DAY (MID MORNING ONWARD)...A BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL NC...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIME FRAME AND LOW CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION
OF CONVECTION AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... WE EXPECTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH....
POSSIBLY EVEN 25 MPH.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON
...ESP ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRDU TO KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/NP/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...BSD/NP



000
FXUS62 KRAH 270229
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. ALSO...INDICATIONS THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY MORNING MAY INHIBIT INSOLATION UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INITIAL S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. W-NW FLOW
ALOFT HAS SPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...THICKEST OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. WHILE EXPECT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THIN WITH TIME...OPAQUENESS MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD VICINITY. ALSO...ARRIVAL
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING AT 02Z ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE AND CROSS THE SW VA/NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIZZLE AS IT ADVANCES EAST PAST THE MOUNTAINS BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR TO LIMIT INSOLATION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PROBABLE IN THE TRIANGLE AREA FROM MID-LATE MORNING UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. IF THIS CLOUDINESS MATERIALIZES...THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT TEMPS. HAVE SHADED MAX TEMPS DOWN OF COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THUS MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HEAT INDICES 102-
104 DEGREES LIKELY.

MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING OCCUR ALONG THE
VA BORDER COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MCV MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. -WSS

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND
NAM TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z MONDAY THEN MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z MON. DESPITE THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE
MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY QPF ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING IT AND LOW LEVEL NIGHT-TIME STABILITY.  ANY CONVECTION
THAT CAN GET GOING OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT STILL
WORTH CLOSE WATCHING. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS TEMPS AND HIGH HEAT INDICES.
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 94 NW TO AROUND 98
SE. WITH DWPTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE...HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100-103 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN ZONES. WHILE THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WE HAVE
HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR CURRENT HWO. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -NP

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE NE
THROUGH NY AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT. THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95 FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. IN THIS FAVORED
REGION...MODELS ARE FORECASTING MUCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-
8.5 DEG/KM...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 DEG/KM. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. GIVEN THAT ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT CONVECTION...
WHERE IT DEVELOPS...TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE MUCH OVER CENTRAL NC. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION WILL FALL APART AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND/OR REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...ALTHOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DEFINITELY EXISTS AND SHOULD IT DEVELOP
ITS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING WITH REGARD TO WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
ALSO...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (SHOULD IT OCCUR) MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN
LIMITING CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO MID
90S SE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER...TO JUST WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUE/WED NIGHTS AND LOW
TO MID 60S THU/FRI NIGHTS. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE NW FRI/SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WEST AND
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONVECTION FURTHER UPSTREAM/WEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL HELP TO SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT (NO CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLY ROUGE
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST NEAR DAYBREAK). THIS COMBINED WITH
A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS OF A
CHANCE FOR SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY STILL SEE SOME MVFR VISBYS NEAR
DAYBREAK THOUGH... WITH FOG PRONE KRWI POSSIBLY SEE VISBYS RANGE
FROM LIFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW
THOUGH... SO WILL JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LOOK FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LATER IN THE DAY (MID MORNING ONWARD)...A BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL NC...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIME FRAME AND LOW CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION
OF CONVECTION AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER... WE EXPECTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH....
POSSIBLY EVEN 25 MPH.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND
ASSOC REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING/MONDAY AFTERNOON
...ESP ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRDU TO KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/NP/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...BSD/NP



000
FXUS62 KRAH 270229
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. ALSO...INDICATIONS THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY MORNING MAY INHIBIT INSOLATION UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INITIAL S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. W-NW FLOW
ALOFT HAS SPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...THICKEST OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. WHILE EXPECT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THIN WITH TIME...OPAQUENESS MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TO RESULT IN MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD VICINITY. ALSO...ARRIVAL
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY...BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING AT 02Z ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE AND CROSS THE SW VA/NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIZZLE AS IT ADVANCES EAST PAST THE MOUNTAINS BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR TO LIMIT INSOLATION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PROBABLE IN THE TRIANGLE AREA FROM MID-LATE MORNING UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON. IF THIS CLOUDINESS MATERIALIZES...THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT TEMPS. HAVE SHADED MAX TEMPS DOWN OF COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THUS MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S STILL APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HEAT INDICES 102-
104 DEGREES LIKELY.

MAY SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING OCCUR ALONG THE
VA BORDER COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING MCV MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. -WSS

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND
NAM TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z MONDAY THEN MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z MON. DESPITE THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE
MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY