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000
FXUS62 KRAH 010602
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010602
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010602
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 010538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM SUN...TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD FAIRLY LARGE THIS EVENING SO WILL SEE SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN PRECIPITATION...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE IF TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
INCREASES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OVER
COLD AIR DOME AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
VERTICAL PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS
JUST ABOVE THE NEAR SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS,
PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CUD
BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1221 AM SUN...LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO MVFR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NORTH. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY WIH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1224 AM SUN...NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 5
FEET WITH SOME ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER CENTRAL WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE IT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN E/SE AS A
COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG/CGG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM SUN...TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD FAIRLY LARGE THIS EVENING SO WILL SEE SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN PRECIPITATION...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE IF TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
INCREASES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OVER
COLD AIR DOME AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
VERTICAL PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS
JUST ABOVE THE NEAR SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS,
PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CUD
BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1221 AM SUN...LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO MVFR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NORTH. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY WIH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1224 AM SUN...NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 5
FEET WITH SOME ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER CENTRAL WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE IT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN E/SE AS A
COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG/CGG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 010538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM SUN...TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD FAIRLY LARGE THIS EVENING SO WILL SEE SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN PRECIPITATION...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE IF TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
INCREASES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OVER
COLD AIR DOME AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
VERTICAL PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS
JUST ABOVE THE NEAR SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS,
PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CUD
BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1221 AM SUN...LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO MVFR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NORTH. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY WIH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1224 AM SUN...NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 5
FEET WITH SOME ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER CENTRAL WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE IT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN E/SE AS A
COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG/CGG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 010538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM SUN...TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD FAIRLY LARGE THIS EVENING SO WILL SEE SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN PRECIPITATION...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE IF TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE
INCREASES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OVER
COLD AIR DOME AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
VERTICAL PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS
JUST ABOVE THE NEAR SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS,
PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CUD
BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1221 AM SUN...LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO MVFR OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NORTH. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY WIH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1224 AM SUN...NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 5
FEET WITH SOME ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WILL
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER CENTRAL WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE IT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN E/SE AS A
COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG/CGG



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 010526
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1225 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE
COAST TODAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF
THE DAY...LIFTING OUT TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TURN
MILDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING STRATIFORM RAIN
OF LIGHT INTENSITY COATED CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN GA
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
WITH T/TD SEPARATIONS OF 13-18 DEG F OVER CENTRAL NC...TO THE LOW
40S AND T/TD DELTAS OF EQUAL VALUES ACROSS NE SC. LATEST NEAR TERM
MODELS AND ALSO 00Z NAM DEPICTIONS INDICATE WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHARPENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SE NC AND NE SC. THESE CONSIDERATIONS
SUGGEST KEEPING THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE IS A
PRUDENT IDEA AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS
STILL AVAILABLE TO TAP. ACCRETIONS IF ANY STILL TO REMAIN MINOR
BUT EVEN A TRACE DRIVES AN ADVISORY AND PCPN ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA LOOKS BEST AFT 9Z AS IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE VIRGA TO OVER-
COME THE DRYISH LOW-LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
EVENING UPDATE...PRIMARILY JUST TWEAKS TO T/TD/RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER...WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ONGOING. THE
WARM NOSE IS VERY DEEP SO PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY
QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE MOST
OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. THE WEDGE MAY BRIEFLY LIFT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING IN THE EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY
FORECAST ON THE BACK END OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TO
12Z SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL
START TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25
KT DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
ALLOWS FOR FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/31










000
FXUS62 KILM 010526
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1225 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE
COAST TODAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF
THE DAY...LIFTING OUT TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TURN
MILDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING STRATIFORM RAIN
OF LIGHT INTENSITY COATED CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN GA
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
WITH T/TD SEPARATIONS OF 13-18 DEG F OVER CENTRAL NC...TO THE LOW
40S AND T/TD DELTAS OF EQUAL VALUES ACROSS NE SC. LATEST NEAR TERM
MODELS AND ALSO 00Z NAM DEPICTIONS INDICATE WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHARPENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SE NC AND NE SC. THESE CONSIDERATIONS
SUGGEST KEEPING THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE IS A
PRUDENT IDEA AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS
STILL AVAILABLE TO TAP. ACCRETIONS IF ANY STILL TO REMAIN MINOR
BUT EVEN A TRACE DRIVES AN ADVISORY AND PCPN ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA LOOKS BEST AFT 9Z AS IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE VIRGA TO OVER-
COME THE DRYISH LOW-LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
EVENING UPDATE...PRIMARILY JUST TWEAKS TO T/TD/RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER...WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ONGOING. THE
WARM NOSE IS VERY DEEP SO PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY
QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE MOST
OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. THE WEDGE MAY BRIEFLY LIFT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING IN THE EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY
FORECAST ON THE BACK END OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TO
12Z SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL
START TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25
KT DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
ALLOWS FOR FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/31









000
FXUS62 KRAH 010410
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1110 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

     A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010410
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1110 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

     A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010332
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

...A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010332
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

...A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010332
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

...A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010332
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

...A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SATURDAY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO OBS WHILE ALSO
MODIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CURVE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
LOWS WILL DROP BETWEEN 06-08Z AND SLOWLY CLIMB AFTER THIS POINT.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER NORTHEAST
FLOW...CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO. GIVEN THIS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT DROP TOO MUCH MORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S ALONG HE BEACHES TO THE MID-20S ACROSS THE NW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OVER
COLD AIR DOME AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
VERTICAL PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS
JUST ABOVE THE NEAR SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS,
PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CUD
BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OF MOISTURE OVER SHALLOW COLD DOME LEADS TO INCREASED CLOUDS
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS
LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
IT IS NOTED THAT WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...FEEL SOME
5-6FT SETS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS. SO
HAVE KEPT SCA UP FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 1AM/3AM RESPECTIVELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN E/SE AS A
COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SATURDAY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO OBS WHILE ALSO
MODIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CURVE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
LOWS WILL DROP BETWEEN 06-08Z AND SLOWLY CLIMB AFTER THIS POINT.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER NORTHEAST
FLOW...CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO. GIVEN THIS TEMPS SHOULD
NOT DROP TOO MUCH MORE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S ALONG HE BEACHES TO THE MID-20S ACROSS THE NW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OVER
COLD AIR DOME AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S
THIS EVENING AND WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
VERTICAL PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS
JUST ABOVE THE NEAR SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS,
PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CUD
BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OF MOISTURE OVER SHALLOW COLD DOME LEADS TO INCREASED CLOUDS
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS
LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
IT IS NOTED THAT WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SCA. HOWEVER...FEEL SOME
5-6FT SETS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS. SO
HAVE KEPT SCA UP FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 1AM/3AM RESPECTIVELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN E/SE AS A
COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG/LEP



000
FXUS62 KILM 010244
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
944 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY...LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL TURN MILDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING STRATIFORM RAIN
OF LIGHT INTENSITY COATED CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN GA
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
WITH T/TD SEPARATIONS OF 13-18 DEG F OVER CENTRAL NC...TO THE LOW
40S AND T/TD DELTAS OF EQUAL VALUES ACROSS NE SC. LATEST NEAR TERM
MODELS AND ALSO 00Z NAM DEPICTIONS INDICATE WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHARPENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SE NC AND NE SC. THESE CONSIDERATIONS
SUGGEST KEEPING THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE IS A
PRUDENT IDEA AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS
STILL AVAILABLE TO TAP. ACCRETIONS IF ANY STILL TO REMAIN MINOR
BUT EVEN A TRACE DRIVES AN ADVISORY AND PCPN ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA LOOKS BEST AFT 9Z AS IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE VIRGA TO OVER-
COME THE DRYISH LOW-LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
EVENING UPDATE...PRIMARILY JUST TWEAKS TO T/TD/RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER...WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL
GET BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE
FORECAST TO STAY NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A
LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TO
12Z SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL
START TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25
KT DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
ALLOWS FOR FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 010244
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
944 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY...LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL TURN MILDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING STRATIFORM RAIN
OF LIGHT INTENSITY COATED CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN GA
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
WITH T/TD SEPARATIONS OF 13-18 DEG F OVER CENTRAL NC...TO THE LOW
40S AND T/TD DELTAS OF EQUAL VALUES ACROSS NE SC. LATEST NEAR TERM
MODELS AND ALSO 00Z NAM DEPICTIONS INDICATE WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHARPENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SE NC AND NE SC. THESE CONSIDERATIONS
SUGGEST KEEPING THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE IS A
PRUDENT IDEA AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS
STILL AVAILABLE TO TAP. ACCRETIONS IF ANY STILL TO REMAIN MINOR
BUT EVEN A TRACE DRIVES AN ADVISORY AND PCPN ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA LOOKS BEST AFT 9Z AS IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE VIRGA TO OVER-
COME THE DRYISH LOW-LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
EVENING UPDATE...PRIMARILY JUST TWEAKS TO T/TD/RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER...WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL
GET BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE
FORECAST TO STAY NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A
LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TO
12Z SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL
START TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25
KT DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
ALLOWS FOR FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OUTER WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010154
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
845 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...NO
BIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OVER COLD
AIR DOME AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
VERTICAL PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS JUST
ABOVE THE NEAR SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CUD BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OF MOISTURE OVER SHALLOW COLD DOME LEADS TO INCREASED CLOUDS
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS
LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
RELAXES AND WINDS TURN E/SE AS A COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG/CTC
MARINE...BTC/DAG/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010154
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
845 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...NO
BIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OVER COLD
AIR DOME AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
VERTICAL PROFILES FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS JUST
ABOVE THE NEAR SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CUD BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OF MOISTURE OVER SHALLOW COLD DOME LEADS TO INCREASED CLOUDS
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS
LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
RELAXES AND WINDS TURN E/SE AS A COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG/CTC
MARINE...BTC/DAG/CTC



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010122
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
822 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

...LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: WINTER IS MOST CERTAINLY NOT OVER YET. MORE WINTRY
PRECIP... DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ATOP THE COLD WEDGING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NE... APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WE`LL MAINTAIN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW
(TRENDING TO BE FROM THE WEST) OVER NC. AT THE SURFACE... THE PARENT
HIGH PROVIDING THE CHILLY AIR WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT... ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST AND
COASTAL NC TO SHARPEN. THIS WILL CULMINATE IN A RESIDUAL STABLE COLD
POOL (AND MESOHIGH) OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS OF NC/SC
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AT 850 MB... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK FROM
NRN FL TO THE NORTH... RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING FLOW JUST ALOFT
AND AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN CENTRAL NC THERMAL
PROFILES. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO OUR NE SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT...
LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS: HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW... THE HRRR... AND DOWNSCALED NAM QPF AND
TIMING. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOW COVERAGE AND JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS. THEN AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS... EXPECT
PRECIP TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50-60% COVERAGE (AND THIS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IF LATER MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT) OVER THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY MORNING... SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY LIGHT QPF... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR DRY
POCKETS ALOFT. THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE LIFT. EXPECT TOTAL QPF GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.40...
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SE CWA TRENDING TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE NW CWA.

PRECIP TYPE: FOLLOWING THE TOP-DOWN PTYPE METHODOLOGY... EXPECT ANY
INITIAL PRECIP TO BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING ICE IN THE CLOUD)... TRENDING TO
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NRN/WRN CWA. THE ENCROACHING WARMER
SURFACE AIR (AS THE COLD DOME THINS ON THE EDGES) WILL RESULT IN AN
HOUR-BY-HOUR TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN FROM SE TO NW... WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT LAST DEPARTING FROM THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WET BULBS THERE RISE TO AROUND FREEZING. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RETREATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA... IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA AND CEASE TO PROVIDE A STEADY
SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MIGHT ENSURE CONTINUED GLAZE BUILD-
UP. SO WITH TIME... LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL SERVE TO LIMIT ICE
ACCRUAL... SUCH THAT SOME OF THE QPF IN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
EVENT WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF. THAT SAID HOWEVER... BASED ON FORECAST
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS... IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SURFACE COLD LAYER TO SUPPORT A LIGHT GLAZING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA... WITH THE GREATER
AMOUNTS (PERHAPS AT OR JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH) OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED NW CWA.

TEMPERATURES: READINGS WILL FOLLOW AN ATYPICAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 23-33... HIGHS SUNDAY OF 32-39 WEST OF
I-95 AND MAINLY 40S EAST OF I-95... AND LOWS SUN NIGHT 32-44...
ALTHOUGH TEMPS SUN EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD BE STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL COOL POOL STARTS TO MIX
OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WSW FLOW ALOFT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010122
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
822 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

...LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: WINTER IS MOST CERTAINLY NOT OVER YET. MORE WINTRY
PRECIP... DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ATOP THE COLD WEDGING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NE... APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WE`LL MAINTAIN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW
(TRENDING TO BE FROM THE WEST) OVER NC. AT THE SURFACE... THE PARENT
HIGH PROVIDING THE CHILLY AIR WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT... ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST AND
COASTAL NC TO SHARPEN. THIS WILL CULMINATE IN A RESIDUAL STABLE COLD
POOL (AND MESOHIGH) OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS OF NC/SC
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AT 850 MB... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK FROM
NRN FL TO THE NORTH... RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING FLOW JUST ALOFT
AND AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN CENTRAL NC THERMAL
PROFILES. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO OUR NE SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT...
LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS: HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW... THE HRRR... AND DOWNSCALED NAM QPF AND
TIMING. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOW COVERAGE AND JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS. THEN AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS... EXPECT
PRECIP TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50-60% COVERAGE (AND THIS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IF LATER MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT) OVER THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY MORNING... SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY LIGHT QPF... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR DRY
POCKETS ALOFT. THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE LIFT. EXPECT TOTAL QPF GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.40...
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SE CWA TRENDING TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE NW CWA.

PRECIP TYPE: FOLLOWING THE TOP-DOWN PTYPE METHODOLOGY... EXPECT ANY
INITIAL PRECIP TO BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING ICE IN THE CLOUD)... TRENDING TO
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NRN/WRN CWA. THE ENCROACHING WARMER
SURFACE AIR (AS THE COLD DOME THINS ON THE EDGES) WILL RESULT IN AN
HOUR-BY-HOUR TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN FROM SE TO NW... WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT LAST DEPARTING FROM THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WET BULBS THERE RISE TO AROUND FREEZING. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RETREATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA... IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA AND CEASE TO PROVIDE A STEADY
SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MIGHT ENSURE CONTINUED GLAZE BUILD-
UP. SO WITH TIME... LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL SERVE TO LIMIT ICE
ACCRUAL... SUCH THAT SOME OF THE QPF IN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
EVENT WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF. THAT SAID HOWEVER... BASED ON FORECAST
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS... IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SURFACE COLD LAYER TO SUPPORT A LIGHT GLAZING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA... WITH THE GREATER
AMOUNTS (PERHAPS AT OR JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH) OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED NW CWA.

TEMPERATURES: READINGS WILL FOLLOW AN ATYPICAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 23-33... HIGHS SUNDAY OF 32-39 WEST OF
I-95 AND MAINLY 40S EAST OF I-95... AND LOWS SUN NIGHT 32-44...
ALTHOUGH TEMPS SUN EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD BE STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL COOL POOL STARTS TO MIX
OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WSW FLOW ALOFT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS62 KILM 282334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
634 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY...LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL TURN MILDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 PM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS
INTACT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SE NC AND NE SC. LATEST SURFACE OBS
SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S ACCOMPANIED BY
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC WHERE PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE ALLOWING FOR VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WERE NOTED ACROSS NE SC ALSO ALTHOUGH MAINLY
LOWER 40 AIR TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS
EFFICIENT WEDGE BULB COOLING EFFECTS REMAIN QUITE POSSIBLE. ALSO
IT APPEARS THE COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OFFSHORE COULD SUPPLY
A CONTINUED FEED OF COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS SHARPENED...THUS AIDING THE -FZRA THREAT.
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA.
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB RIDGE MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A SOME TIME TO
MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER...WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL
GET BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE
FORECAST TO STAY NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A
LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND
BASED ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE
ADVISORY TO 12Z SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR
SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST
FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF
NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III/MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 282334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
634 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY...LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL TURN MILDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 PM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS
INTACT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SE NC AND NE SC. LATEST SURFACE OBS
SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S ACCOMPANIED BY
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC WHERE PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE ALLOWING FOR VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WERE NOTED ACROSS NE SC ALSO ALTHOUGH MAINLY
LOWER 40 AIR TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS
EFFICIENT WEDGE BULB COOLING EFFECTS REMAIN QUITE POSSIBLE. ALSO
IT APPEARS THE COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OFFSHORE COULD SUPPLY
A CONTINUED FEED OF COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS SHARPENED...THUS AIDING THE -FZRA THREAT.
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA.
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB RIDGE MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A SOME TIME TO
MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER...WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL
GET BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE
FORECAST TO STAY NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A
LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND
BASED ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE
ADVISORY TO 12Z SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR
SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST
FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF
NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III/MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 282334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
634 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY...LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL TURN MILDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 PM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS
INTACT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SE NC AND NE SC. LATEST SURFACE OBS
SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S ACCOMPANIED BY
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC WHERE PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE ALLOWING FOR VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WERE NOTED ACROSS NE SC ALSO ALTHOUGH MAINLY
LOWER 40 AIR TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS
EFFICIENT WEDGE BULB COOLING EFFECTS REMAIN QUITE POSSIBLE. ALSO
IT APPEARS THE COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OFFSHORE COULD SUPPLY
A CONTINUED FEED OF COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS SHARPENED...THUS AIDING THE -FZRA THREAT.
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA.
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB RIDGE MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A SOME TIME TO
MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER...WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL
GET BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE
FORECAST TO STAY NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A
LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND
BASED ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE
ADVISORY TO 12Z SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR
SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST
FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF
NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III/MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 282334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
634 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY...LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL TURN MILDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 PM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS
INTACT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SE NC AND NE SC. LATEST SURFACE OBS
SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S ACCOMPANIED BY
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC WHERE PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE ALLOWING FOR VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WERE NOTED ACROSS NE SC ALSO ALTHOUGH MAINLY
LOWER 40 AIR TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS
EFFICIENT WEDGE BULB COOLING EFFECTS REMAIN QUITE POSSIBLE. ALSO
IT APPEARS THE COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OFFSHORE COULD SUPPLY
A CONTINUED FEED OF COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS SHARPENED...THUS AIDING THE -FZRA THREAT.
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA.
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB RIDGE MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A SOME TIME TO
MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER...WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL
GET BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE
FORECAST TO STAY NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A
LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND
BASED ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE
ADVISORY TO 12Z SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR
SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST
FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF
NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III/MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 282252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
552 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DAY
OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LATE FEB SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
OVERPOWER MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO SET. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF
COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
850MB RIDGE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER....WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET
BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE FORECAST TO STAY
NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK
FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND BASED
ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE ADVISORY TO 12Z
SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL START TO
TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO
15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR
FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 282252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
552 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DAY
OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LATE FEB SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
OVERPOWER MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO SET. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF
COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
850MB RIDGE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER....WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET
BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE FORECAST TO STAY
NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK
FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND BASED
ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE ADVISORY TO 12Z
SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL START TO
TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO
15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR
FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 282252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
552 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DAY
OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LATE FEB SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
OVERPOWER MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO SET. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF
COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
850MB RIDGE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER....WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET
BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE FORECAST TO STAY
NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK
FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND BASED
ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE ADVISORY TO 12Z
SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL START TO
TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO
15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR
FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43








000
FXUS62 KILM 282252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
552 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DAY
OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LATE FEB SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
OVERPOWER MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO SET. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF
COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
850MB RIDGE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER....WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET
BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE FORECAST TO STAY
NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK
FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND BASED
ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE ADVISORY TO 12Z
SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL START TO
TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO
15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR
FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KILM 282045
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DAY
OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LATE FEB SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
OVERPOWER MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO SET. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF
COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
850MB RIDGE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER....WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 13 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOPS SE OF KCRE/KMYR DEVELOPING NWWD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
MORE LIKELY MIDNIGHT OR AFTERWARDS. TOWARDS 09Z CIGS WILL LOWER TO
POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. THESE IFR CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING IF
THE WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. WITH RAIN
FALLING INTO A COLD WEDGE AT KFLO/KLBT THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DEVELOPING MOST
LIKELY AFT 13-14Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND BASED
ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE ADVISORY TO 12Z
SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL START TO
TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO
15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR
FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 282045
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DAY
OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LATE FEB SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
OVERPOWER MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO SET. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF
COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
850MB RIDGE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER....WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 13 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY LOOPS SE OF KCRE/KMYR DEVELOPING NWWD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
MORE LIKELY MIDNIGHT OR AFTERWARDS. TOWARDS 09Z CIGS WILL LOWER TO
POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. THESE IFR CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING IF
THE WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. WITH RAIN
FALLING INTO A COLD WEDGE AT KFLO/KLBT THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DEVELOPING MOST
LIKELY AFT 13-14Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND BASED
ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE ADVISORY TO 12Z
SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL START TO
TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO
15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR
FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KMHX 282021
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH INVERTED TROF SHARPENING OFF THE
COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE NEAR
SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING
THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CUD BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST THRU THE EVENING THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE, AND
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR
DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
N/NE WINDS STILL BLOWING AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
DURING MID AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR
NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN
E/SE AS A COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 282021
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH INVERTED TROF SHARPENING OFF THE
COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE NEAR
SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING
THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CUD BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY EVENING THEN STRONG WAA WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OFF
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH LATE MORNING ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S
BY THE AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC, THUS
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE
AREA ACROSS ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
WED EVENING AND CROSS LATE WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED NIGHT. SYSTEM
LOOKS WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN
STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST LOW LEVELS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE
PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN. RAIN WILL END
THURSDAY EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO SATURDAY.
THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST THRU THE EVENING THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE, AND
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR
DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS
DRIER AIR SPREAD SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM
FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
N/NE WINDS STILL BLOWING AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
DURING MID AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR
NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN
E/SE AS A COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A
FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8
FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING NW THEN N DURING THE DAY
AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. USED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282013
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

...LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: WINTER IS MOST CERTAINLY NOT OVER YET. MORE WINTRY
PRECIP... DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ATOP THE COLD WEDGING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NE... APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WE`LL MAINTAIN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW
(TRENDING TO BE FROM THE WEST) OVER NC. AT THE SURFACE... THE PARENT
HIGH PROVIDING THE CHILLY AIR WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT... ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST AND
COASTAL NC TO SHARPEN. THIS WILL CULMINATE IN A RESIDUAL STABLE COLD
POOL (AND MESOHIGH) OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS OF NC/SC
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AT 850 MB... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK FROM
NRN FL TO THE NORTH... RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING FLOW JUST ALOFT
AND AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN CENTRAL NC THERMAL
PROFILES. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO OUR NE SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT...
LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS: HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW... THE HRRR... AND DOWNSCALED NAM QPF AND
TIMING. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOW COVERAGE AND JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS. THEN AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS... EXPECT
PRECIP TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50-60% COVERAGE (AND THIS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IF LATER MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT) OVER THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY MORNING... SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY LIGHT QPF... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR DRY
POCKETS ALOFT. THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE LIFT. EXPECT TOTAL QPF GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.40...
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SE CWA TRENDING TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE NW CWA.

PRECIP TYPE: FOLLOWING THE TOP-DOWN PTYPE METHODOLOGY... EXPECT ANY
INITIAL PRECIP TO BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING ICE IN THE CLOUD)... TRENDING TO
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NRN/WRN CWA. THE ENCROACHING WARMER
SURFACE AIR (AS THE COLD DOME THINS ON THE EDGES) WILL RESULT IN AN
HOUR-BY-HOUR TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN FROM SE TO NW... WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT LAST DEPARTING FROM THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WET BULBS THERE RISE TO AROUND FREEZING. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RETREATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA... IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA AND CEASE TO PROVIDE A STEADY
SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MIGHT ENSURE CONTINUED GLAZE BUILD-
UP. SO WITH TIME... LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL SERVE TO LIMIT ICE
ACCRUAL... SUCH THAT SOME OF THE QPF IN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
EVENT WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF. THAT SAID HOWEVER... BASED ON FORECAST
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS... IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SURFACE COLD LAYER TO SUPPORT A LIGHT GLAZING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA... WITH THE GREATER
AMOUNTS (PERHAPS AT OR JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH) OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED NW CWA.

TEMPERATURES: READINGS WILL FOLLOW AN ATYPICAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 23-33... HIGHS SUNDAY OF 32-39 WEST OF
I-95 AND MAINLY 40S EAST OF I-95... AND LOWS SUN NIGHT 32-44...
ALTHOUGH TEMPS SUN EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD BE STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL COOL POOL STARTS TO MIX
OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WSW FLOW ALOFT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 282013
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

...LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: WINTER IS MOST CERTAINLY NOT OVER YET. MORE WINTRY
PRECIP... DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ATOP THE COLD WEDGING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NE... APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WE`LL MAINTAIN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW
(TRENDING TO BE FROM THE WEST) OVER NC. AT THE SURFACE... THE PARENT
HIGH PROVIDING THE CHILLY AIR WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT... ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST AND
COASTAL NC TO SHARPEN. THIS WILL CULMINATE IN A RESIDUAL STABLE COLD
POOL (AND MESOHIGH) OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS OF NC/SC
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AT 850 MB... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK FROM
NRN FL TO THE NORTH... RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING FLOW JUST ALOFT
AND AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN CENTRAL NC THERMAL
PROFILES. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO OUR NE SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT...
LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS: HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW... THE HRRR... AND DOWNSCALED NAM QPF AND
TIMING. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOW COVERAGE AND JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS. THEN AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS... EXPECT
PRECIP TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50-60% COVERAGE (AND THIS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IF LATER MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT) OVER THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY MORNING... SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY LIGHT QPF... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR DRY
POCKETS ALOFT. THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE LIFT. EXPECT TOTAL QPF GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.40...
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SE CWA TRENDING TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE NW CWA.

PRECIP TYPE: FOLLOWING THE TOP-DOWN PTYPE METHODOLOGY... EXPECT ANY
INITIAL PRECIP TO BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING ICE IN THE CLOUD)... TRENDING TO
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NRN/WRN CWA. THE ENCROACHING WARMER
SURFACE AIR (AS THE COLD DOME THINS ON THE EDGES) WILL RESULT IN AN
HOUR-BY-HOUR TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN FROM SE TO NW... WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT LAST DEPARTING FROM THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WET BULBS THERE RISE TO AROUND FREEZING. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RETREATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA... IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA AND CEASE TO PROVIDE A STEADY
SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MIGHT ENSURE CONTINUED GLAZE BUILD-
UP. SO WITH TIME... LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL SERVE TO LIMIT ICE
ACCRUAL... SUCH THAT SOME OF THE QPF IN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
EVENT WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF. THAT SAID HOWEVER... BASED ON FORECAST
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS... IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SURFACE COLD LAYER TO SUPPORT A LIGHT GLAZING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA... WITH THE GREATER
AMOUNTS (PERHAPS AT OR JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH) OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED NW CWA.

TEMPERATURES: READINGS WILL FOLLOW AN ATYPICAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 23-33... HIGHS SUNDAY OF 32-39 WEST OF
I-95 AND MAINLY 40S EAST OF I-95... AND LOWS SUN NIGHT 32-44...
ALTHOUGH TEMPS SUN EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD BE STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL COOL POOL STARTS TO MIX
OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WSW FLOW ALOFT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
236 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH INVERTED TROF SHARPENING OFF THE
COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE NEAR
SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING
THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CUD BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST THRU THE EVENING THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE, AND
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR
DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
N/NE WINDS STILL BLOWING AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
DURING MID AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR
NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN
E/SE AS A COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER
MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6
FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...CCG/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
236 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH INVERTED TROF SHARPENING OFF THE
COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE NEAR
SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING
THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CUD BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST THRU THE EVENING THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE, AND
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR
DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
N/NE WINDS STILL BLOWING AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
DURING MID AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR
NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN
E/SE AS A COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER
MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6
FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...CCG/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
236 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH INVERTED TROF SHARPENING OFF THE
COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE NEAR
SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING
THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CUD BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST THRU THE EVENING THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE, AND
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR
DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
N/NE WINDS STILL BLOWING AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
DURING MID AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR
NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN
E/SE AS A COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER
MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6
FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...CCG/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
236 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH INVERTED TROF SHARPENING OFF THE
COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK THRU THE 30S THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
MAINLY OVER DEEP INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH WARMING TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE NEAR
SFC COLD AIR. HOWEVER ANY FREEZING PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SLIPPERY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING
THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 FOR NOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE NOON. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT, EXPECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES BUT
LOW QPF AMOUNTS...MAINLY LESS THAN .25" THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CUD BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL TROF/WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 40S WELL INLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS SURGE
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST THRU THE EVENING THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE, AND
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR
DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
N/NE WINDS STILL BLOWING AT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
DURING MID AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR
NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AND WINDS TURN
E/SE AS A COASTAL TROF MOVES INLAND ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN
THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER
MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6
FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A
TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...CCG/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281739
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUITE COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
30S/NEAR 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO LOW/MID 40S SOUTH. AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD DOWNSTREAM SHORT
WAVE. BRISK NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST THRU THE EVENING THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE, AND
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR
DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING WIND SPEEDS
IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...CCG/RF



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281739
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUITE COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
30S/NEAR 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO LOW/MID 40S SOUTH. AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD DOWNSTREAM SHORT
WAVE. BRISK NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST THRU THE EVENING THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE, AND
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR
DEEPER INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY SO EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING WIND SPEEDS
IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...CCG/RF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KILM 281732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST BY BROAD
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. CIRRUS WILL FIRST SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO THICKEN. MOST AREAS ARE
CLEARER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO DID BUMP HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL END UP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS/INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850MB
RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE 300-305K LAYER WILL LOWER CLOUD BASES TO 3K-5K FT BY EVENING.
LAYER BELOW 3K FT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD THE LOW LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP AND IT CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIP EARLY SUN MORNING AND TEMPS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NUMEROUS REASONS. THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH A HUNDREDTH OR TWO THE HIGHEST
CONCEIVABLE AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HELPING TO COOL/DRY
THE SURFACE LAYER AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING BUT T/TD SPREAD REMAINS
A QUESTION. CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
WHILE TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO WET BULB TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING INSTEAD OF JUST BELOW. SO WHILE EVAPORATION
COOLING WILL TRY TO DROP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING NOT SURE IF
IT WILL HAPPEN. BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS
INLAND SC COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS INLAND NC.
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SITUATION BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 13 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
LOOPS SE OF KCRE/KMYR DEVELOPING NWWD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS
COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
MIDNIGHT OR AFTERWARDS. TOWARDS 09Z CIGS WILL LOWER TO POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THESE
IFR CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING IF THE WARM FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. WITH RAIN FALLING INTO A
COLD WEDGE AT KFLO/KLBT THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DEVELOPING MOST LIKELY AFT 13-14Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH NEARSHORE
GRADIENT REMAINING PINCHED. 20 TO 25 KT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL
START TO EASE UP LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 281732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST BY BROAD
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. CIRRUS WILL FIRST SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO THICKEN. MOST AREAS ARE
CLEARER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO DID BUMP HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL END UP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS/INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850MB
RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE 300-305K LAYER WILL LOWER CLOUD BASES TO 3K-5K FT BY EVENING.
LAYER BELOW 3K FT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD THE LOW LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP AND IT CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIP EARLY SUN MORNING AND TEMPS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NUMEROUS REASONS. THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH A HUNDREDTH OR TWO THE HIGHEST
CONCEIVABLE AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HELPING TO COOL/DRY
THE SURFACE LAYER AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING BUT T/TD SPREAD REMAINS
A QUESTION. CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
WHILE TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO WET BULB TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING INSTEAD OF JUST BELOW. SO WHILE EVAPORATION
COOLING WILL TRY TO DROP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING NOT SURE IF
IT WILL HAPPEN. BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS
INLAND SC COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS INLAND NC.
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SITUATION BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 13 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
LOOPS SE OF KCRE/KMYR DEVELOPING NWWD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS
COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
MIDNIGHT OR AFTERWARDS. TOWARDS 09Z CIGS WILL LOWER TO POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THESE
IFR CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING IF THE WARM FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. WITH RAIN FALLING INTO A
COLD WEDGE AT KFLO/KLBT THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DEVELOPING MOST LIKELY AFT 13-14Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH NEARSHORE
GRADIENT REMAINING PINCHED. 20 TO 25 KT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL
START TO EASE UP LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 281732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST BY BROAD
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. CIRRUS WILL FIRST SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO THICKEN. MOST AREAS ARE
CLEARER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO DID BUMP HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL END UP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS/INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850MB
RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE 300-305K LAYER WILL LOWER CLOUD BASES TO 3K-5K FT BY EVENING.
LAYER BELOW 3K FT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD THE LOW LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP AND IT CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIP EARLY SUN MORNING AND TEMPS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NUMEROUS REASONS. THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH A HUNDREDTH OR TWO THE HIGHEST
CONCEIVABLE AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HELPING TO COOL/DRY
THE SURFACE LAYER AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING BUT T/TD SPREAD REMAINS
A QUESTION. CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
WHILE TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO WET BULB TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING INSTEAD OF JUST BELOW. SO WHILE EVAPORATION
COOLING WILL TRY TO DROP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING NOT SURE IF
IT WILL HAPPEN. BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS
INLAND SC COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS INLAND NC.
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SITUATION BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 13 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
LOOPS SE OF KCRE/KMYR DEVELOPING NWWD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS
COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
MIDNIGHT OR AFTERWARDS. TOWARDS 09Z CIGS WILL LOWER TO POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THESE
IFR CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING IF THE WARM FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. WITH RAIN FALLING INTO A
COLD WEDGE AT KFLO/KLBT THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DEVELOPING MOST LIKELY AFT 13-14Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH NEARSHORE
GRADIENT REMAINING PINCHED. 20 TO 25 KT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL
START TO EASE UP LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 281732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1232 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST BY BROAD
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. CIRRUS WILL FIRST SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO THICKEN. MOST AREAS ARE
CLEARER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO DID BUMP HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL END UP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS/INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850MB
RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE 300-305K LAYER WILL LOWER CLOUD BASES TO 3K-5K FT BY EVENING.
LAYER BELOW 3K FT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD THE LOW LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP AND IT CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIP EARLY SUN MORNING AND TEMPS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NUMEROUS REASONS. THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH A HUNDREDTH OR TWO THE HIGHEST
CONCEIVABLE AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HELPING TO COOL/DRY
THE SURFACE LAYER AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING BUT T/TD SPREAD REMAINS
A QUESTION. CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
WHILE TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO WET BULB TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING INSTEAD OF JUST BELOW. SO WHILE EVAPORATION
COOLING WILL TRY TO DROP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING NOT SURE IF
IT WILL HAPPEN. BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS
INLAND SC COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS INLAND NC.
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SITUATION BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 13 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
LOOPS SE OF KCRE/KMYR DEVELOPING NWWD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS
COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
MIDNIGHT OR AFTERWARDS. TOWARDS 09Z CIGS WILL LOWER TO POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THESE
IFR CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING IF THE WARM FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. TOO CLOSE TO CALL ATTM. WITH RAIN FALLING INTO A
COLD WEDGE AT KFLO/KLBT THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DEVELOPING MOST LIKELY AFT 13-14Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH NEARSHORE
GRADIENT REMAINING PINCHED. 20 TO 25 KT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL
START TO EASE UP LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 281528
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST BY BROAD
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. CIRRUS WILL FIRST SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO THICKEN. MOST AREAS ARE
CLEARER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO DID BUMP HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL END UP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS/INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850MB
RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE 300-305K LAYER WILL LOWER CLOUD BASES TO 3K-5K FT BY EVENING.
LAYER BELOW 3K FT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD THE LOW LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP AND IT CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIP EARLY SUN MORNING AND TEMPS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NUMEROUS REASONS. THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH A HUNDREDTH OR TWO THE HIGHEST
CONCEIVABLE AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HELPING TO COOL/DRY
THE SURFACE LAYER AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING BUT T/TD SPREAD REMAINS
A QUESTION. CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
WHILE TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO WET BULB TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING INSTEAD OF JUST BELOW. SO WHILE EVAPORATION
COOLING WILL TRY TO DROP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING NOT SURE IF
IT WILL HAPPEN. BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS
INLAND SC COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS INLAND NC.
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SITUATION BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH NEARSHORE
GRADIENT REMAINING PINCHED. 20 TO 25 KT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL
START TO EASE UP LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 281528
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST BY BROAD
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. CIRRUS WILL FIRST SPREAD OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO THICKEN. MOST AREAS ARE
CLEARER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO DID BUMP HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL END UP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS/INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850MB
RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE 300-305K LAYER WILL LOWER CLOUD BASES TO 3K-5K FT BY EVENING.
LAYER BELOW 3K FT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD THE LOW LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP AND IT CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH VERY LIGHT
PRECIP EARLY SUN MORNING AND TEMPS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NUMEROUS REASONS. THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID
PRECIP WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH A HUNDREDTH OR TWO THE HIGHEST
CONCEIVABLE AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HELPING TO COOL/DRY
THE SURFACE LAYER AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING BUT T/TD SPREAD REMAINS
A QUESTION. CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST
WHILE TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO WET BULB TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING INSTEAD OF JUST BELOW. SO WHILE EVAPORATION
COOLING WILL TRY TO DROP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING NOT SURE IF
IT WILL HAPPEN. BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS
INLAND SC COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS INLAND NC.
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SITUATION BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH NEARSHORE
GRADIENT REMAINING PINCHED. 20 TO 25 KT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL
START TO EASE UP LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP
AND GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281517
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281517
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281517
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281517
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281455
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
955 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAISED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES PER LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.
STILL QUITE COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO LOW/MID 40S SOUTH.
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE. BRISK NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 621 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING INTO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND
THICKEN TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST...BUT
WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING WIND SPEEDS
IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...CCG/RF
MARINE...CCG/RF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281204
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281204
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281204
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281204
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KILM 281147
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED
AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY
AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KMHX 281124
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
623 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 620 AM SAT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING BUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE VISIBILE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
AREA 5 TO 10 MPH.

PREV DISC...AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING DOWN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
TRYING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
AND ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 621 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING INTO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND
THICKEN TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST...BUT
WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING WIND SPEEDS
IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281124
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
623 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 620 AM SAT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING BUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE VISIBILE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
AREA 5 TO 10 MPH.

PREV DISC...AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING DOWN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
TRYING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
AND ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 621 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING INTO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND
THICKEN TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST...BUT
WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING WIND SPEEDS
IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280823
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280823
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280823
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280823
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 280823
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/31









000
FXUS62 KILM 280823
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD COLUMN.  MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH
UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.  FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO
ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES.  NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING
OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY
POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN
SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC.
JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF
POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE
APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE
UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST
ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN
SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE
WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO
MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA
MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS.
OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED
SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE
WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM
WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP
GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID
70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER
AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT.  SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E
WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY  NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES
WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE
ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY  NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/31










000
FXUS62 KRAH 280819
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280819
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280816
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280816
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280816
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280816
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280754
AFDMHX

ZCZC RDUWRKCGG 280737
TTAA00 KRDU DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280754
AFDMHX

ZCZC RDUWRKCGG 280737
TTAA00 KRDU DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280750
AFDMHX

ZCZC RDUWRKCGG 280737
TTAA00 KRDU DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280750
AFDMHX

ZCZC RDUWRKCGG 280737
TTAA00 KRDU DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 159 AM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY
AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING
WIND SPEEDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...BTC



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1237 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORHWEST BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS COOL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MID 30S IN IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA UNDER A NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY WILL WRAP UP THE ALREADY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT
NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND TO
UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH WAA OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/MOISTURE. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO
MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH
OVER EASTERN NC. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND FOR LOWERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S TUESDAY.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DELAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY. THE OPER
ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CANADIAN GEM
SO WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS IN THE FAR EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AND
HEDGE CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/WPC SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY, LEADING TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SMALL THREAT OF
SOME LOWER CIGS WITH NE FLOW SAT VEERING TO SE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON
NIGHT AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESP TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SAT...NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
RIVERS BUT BORDERLINE FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE
ALREADY 6+ FT OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS, SO A SCA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL LIKELY
POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL. NORTH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AT
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT
MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5
FT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-7 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL NEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MIDDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODIFIED THE 12Z
WAVEWATCH III A BIT FOR THE EXTENDED DUE TO GFS-BASED WINDS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TOO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/CTC/DAG/LEP
CLIMATE...BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1237 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORHWEST BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS COOL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MID 30S IN IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA UNDER A NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY WILL WRAP UP THE ALREADY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT
NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND TO
UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH WAA OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/MOISTURE. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO
MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH
OVER EASTERN NC. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND FOR LOWERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S TUESDAY.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DELAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY. THE OPER
ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CANADIAN GEM
SO WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS IN THE FAR EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AND
HEDGE CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/WPC SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY, LEADING TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SMALL THREAT OF
SOME LOWER CIGS WITH NE FLOW SAT VEERING TO SE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON
NIGHT AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESP TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SAT...NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
RIVERS BUT BORDERLINE FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE
ALREADY 6+ FT OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS, SO A SCA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL LIKELY
POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL. NORTH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AT
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT
MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5
FT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-7 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL NEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MIDDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODIFIED THE 12Z
WAVEWATCH III A BIT FOR THE EXTENDED DUE TO GFS-BASED WINDS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TOO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/CTC/DAG/LEP
CLIMATE...BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1237 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORHWEST BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS COOL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MID 30S IN IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA UNDER A NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY WILL WRAP UP THE ALREADY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT
NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND TO
UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH WAA OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/MOISTURE. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO
MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH
OVER EASTERN NC. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND FOR LOWERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S TUESDAY.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DELAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY. THE OPER
ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CANADIAN GEM
SO WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS IN THE FAR EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AND
HEDGE CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/WPC SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY, LEADING TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SMALL THREAT OF
SOME LOWER CIGS WITH NE FLOW SAT VEERING TO SE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON
NIGHT AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESP TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SAT...NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
RIVERS BUT BORDERLINE FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE
ALREADY 6+ FT OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS, SO A SCA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL LIKELY
POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL. NORTH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AT
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT
MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5
FT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-7 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL NEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MIDDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODIFIED THE 12Z
WAVEWATCH III A BIT FOR THE EXTENDED DUE TO GFS-BASED WINDS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TOO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/CTC/DAG/LEP
CLIMATE...BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1237 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORHWEST BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS COOL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MID 30S IN IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA UNDER A NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY WILL WRAP UP THE ALREADY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT
NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND TO
UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH WAA OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/MOISTURE. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO
MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH
OVER EASTERN NC. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND FOR LOWERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S TUESDAY.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DELAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY. THE OPER
ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CANADIAN GEM
SO WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS IN THE FAR EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AND
HEDGE CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/WPC SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY, LEADING TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SMALL THREAT OF
SOME LOWER CIGS WITH NE FLOW SAT VEERING TO SE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON
NIGHT AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESP TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SAT...NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
RIVERS BUT BORDERLINE FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE
ALREADY 6+ FT OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS, SO A SCA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL LIKELY
POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL. NORTH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AT
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT
MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5
FT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-7 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL NEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MIDDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODIFIED THE 12Z
WAVEWATCH III A BIT FOR THE EXTENDED DUE TO GFS-BASED WINDS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TOO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/CTC/DAG/LEP
CLIMATE...BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1237 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORHWEST BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS COOL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MID 30S IN IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA UNDER A NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY WILL WRAP UP THE ALREADY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT
NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND TO
UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH WAA OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/MOISTURE. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO
MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH
OVER EASTERN NC. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND FOR LOWERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S TUESDAY.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DELAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY. THE OPER
ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CANADIAN GEM
SO WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS IN THE FAR EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AND
HEDGE CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/WPC SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY, LEADING TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SMALL THREAT OF
SOME LOWER CIGS WITH NE FLOW SAT VEERING TO SE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON
NIGHT AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESP TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SAT...NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
RIVERS BUT BORDERLINE FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE
ALREADY 6+ FT OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS, SO A SCA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL LIKELY
POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL. NORTH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AT
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT
MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5
FT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-7 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL NEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MIDDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODIFIED THE 12Z
WAVEWATCH III A BIT FOR THE EXTENDED DUE TO GFS-BASED WINDS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TOO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/CTC/DAG/LEP
CLIMATE...BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1237 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORHWEST BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS COOL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MID 30S IN IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA UNDER A NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY WILL WRAP UP THE ALREADY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT
NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND TO
UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH WAA OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/MOISTURE. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO
MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH
OVER EASTERN NC. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND FOR LOWERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S TUESDAY.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DELAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY. THE OPER
ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CANADIAN GEM
SO WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS IN THE FAR EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AND
HEDGE CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/WPC SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY, LEADING TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SMALL THREAT OF
SOME LOWER CIGS WITH NE FLOW SAT VEERING TO SE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON
NIGHT AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESP TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SAT...NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
RIVERS BUT BORDERLINE FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE
ALREADY 6+ FT OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS, SO A SCA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL LIKELY
POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL. NORTH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AT
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT
MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5
FT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-7 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL NEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MIDDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODIFIED THE 12Z
WAVEWATCH III A BIT FOR THE EXTENDED DUE TO GFS-BASED WINDS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TOO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/CTC/DAG/LEP
CLIMATE...BTC




000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31






000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31







000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31






000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31






000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31






000
FXUS62 KILM 280537
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL YIELDING INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WHICH COULD CREATE MVFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/31






000
FXUS62 KILM 280257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 280257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KILM 280257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 280257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 280257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK MAY NOT DRIFT OFFSHORE AFTER
ALL. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. RECENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN UPWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND I HAVE MADE
UPWARD TWEAKS AT MOST LOCATIONS: 27-31 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND
29-32 OVER NE SOUTH CAROLINA...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DISCUSSION FROM
630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NE SURGE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURGE? 18Z NAM AND GFS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD BETWEEN 09-12Z (4-7 AM) TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS. A LOCAL RULE OF THUMB IS TO LOOK AT
CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER TO HELP
DIAGNOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDINESS -- AND ALL MODELS SHOW
DIVERGENCE ON THE 1000 MB SURFACE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT...
ANTICIPATING MAINLY 300 MB CIRRUS MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP
SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM
ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS
ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10
DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT
NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON
MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA
BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON
NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID
WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD
FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP
ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES
NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT.

COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD
FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND
WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS
INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS...SUSTAINED AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AS WELL AS LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
THIS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RAMPING UP MORE SLOWLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...DELAYING THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONGER WINDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THESE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 3-5
KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON
THE SOUTH EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4
TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW
IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT.
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS
SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN
ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE
LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO
15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES
WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 280257
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY
WEAT