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000
FXUS62 KILM 260544
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MIGRATE OVERHEAD INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL MID WEEK...POSSIBLY LINGERING AT THE COAST
INTO FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM...OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...
LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06 UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN
DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MARINE INFLUENCE
ALONG THE BEACHES DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WON`T MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY AND ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN FACT IT IS DISTRESSING HOW DRY THE AIR BECOMES AROUND
900 MB (~3000 FT AGL) AS THERE IS THE VERY REAL POTENTIAL THIS
BONE-DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS -10C TO -20C GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. AS IT IS NOW I HAVE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO FALL
TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY AND AS LOW AS 40 ON
MONDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR LIKELY TOUCHING/EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES. CLOSER TO THE COAST MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER. RECENT MOS BIAS STATISTICS SHOWS GFS MOS HAS BEEN
RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGHS...AND A DEGREE OR LESS TOO
WARM WITH LOWS. THE NAM MOS HAS LESS RECENT ACCUMULATED BIAS
EXCEPT AT LBT AND CRE WHERE ITS HIGHS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM
RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL HOLD TRUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
BOTH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKENING. THE WAY WILL THEN BE
PAVED THURSDAY FOR MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND A VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY CROSS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING.
THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RATHER BAGGY AND
DISORGANIZED AND THIS MOISTURE WHILE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE MAY
LINGER OVER PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...WAITING FOR A LARGER
PIECE OF ENERGY TO KICK IT OFFSHORE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/HALLOWEEN MORNING. THE 00Z ECWMF IS A NEW AND
RATHER EXTREME SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND LARGE CUTOFF
OVER TN...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOCAL WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR POSSIBLY MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER THIS HIGHS IN THE 80S. THURSDAYS HIGH MAY BE
HELD IN CHECK SLIGHTLY BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. AGAIN THIS MAY BE MODIFIED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BECOMING WEST THIS MORNING. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT ANY FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT RACES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AOB 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM...GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS.

THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO
15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1 FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING...THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH AS
HIGH AS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER CLOCKWISE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A SMALL WIND CHOP INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING UP ON TOP OF A WEAK
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS QUITE TAME.
AS SUCH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NO LARGE THAN 2 FT. AS BOTH RETREAT AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
VEER TO WESTERLY  BUT NO INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE DECELERATING FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND HOW MUCH FARTHER IT PROGRESSES FROM THERE
IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/RJD










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000
FXUS62 KMHX 260541
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO A
DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY
DECOUPLED INLAND THIS EVENING BUT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
LATE SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT BREEZE DEVELOPING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEWPOINT FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO
FORCING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON FRONT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING. THUS
NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY SUNDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 20 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 138 PM SAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE A FRONT APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUN/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT THIS
EVENING IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PER LATEST NWPS/SWAN LOCAL WAVE MODEL...2 TO 3 FT SEAS
THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 217 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...JBM/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 260451
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1250 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO A
DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY
DECOUPLED INLAND THIS EVENING BUT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
LATE SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT BREEZE DEVELOPING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEWPOINT FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO
FORCING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON FRONT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING.
THUS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO
20 KT AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 138 PM SAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE A FRONT APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUN/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT THIS
EVENING IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PER LATEST NWPS/SWAN LOCAL WAVE MODEL...2 TO 3 FT SEAS
THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 217 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260451
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1250 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO A
DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY
DECOUPLED INLAND THIS EVENING BUT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
LATE SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT BREEZE DEVELOPING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEWPOINT FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO
FORCING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON FRONT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING.
THUS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO
20 KT AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 138 PM SAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE A FRONT APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUN/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT THIS
EVENING IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PER LATEST NWPS/SWAN LOCAL WAVE MODEL...2 TO 3 FT SEAS
THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 217 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
WATERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME/JBM







  [top]

000
FXUS62 KRAH 260438
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY... AS THE FRONT
MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE NOT A CRITICAL FORECAST...A CHALLENGING FORECAST JUST THE SAME
AS DIFFERENCE IN A LITTLE WIND/MIXING AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS
CREATING A WIDE VARIANCE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

WHERE A STEADY SWLY WIND OCCURRING...EVENING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S COMMON. CONVERSELY WHERE THE SFC WIND HAS
DECOUPLED...TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 BEING REPORTED. THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT SHOULD CAUSE A
LIGHT SW-WLY FLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. FARTHER EAST
OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING SFC WINDS BECOME CALM. THUS...EXPECT COOLEST MIN TEMPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
WARMEST MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS MID 40S EAST-LOWER 50S WEST-NW. -WSS


SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

WARM AND DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. SINCE THE
STRONGEST WAA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY... THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS UPCOMING PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S MONDAY... WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS (EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

...INCREASING ODDS OF THE FIRST FREEZE BY NEXT WEEKEND...

...PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK... THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A GOOD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR... DRIVEN BY A
1035+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE A LOT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED
LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE REMNANTS OF ANA AS IT DRIVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE EUROPEAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEPER AND MORE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY SAT-SUN... WHILE THE GFS
IS NOT AS STRONG. REGARDLESS... A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST AT LEAST A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MORE EXTREME EUROPEAN MAY STILL DEVELOP... BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR
FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL CENTRAL
NC TERMINAL FORECAST SITES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEPLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR. A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHWARD INTO NRN AND NE NC TODAY...
FORCING CURRENT VERY LIGHT WIND MAINLY FROM THE SW TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT 8-12 KTS SUSTAINED AREAWIDE. SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST
AS HIGH AS 15-22 KTS ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI STARTING MID MORNING AND
CONTINUING UNTIL MID AFTERNOON... WHEN GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 23Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST... ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY WED MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260438
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY... AS THE FRONT
MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE NOT A CRITICAL FORECAST...A CHALLENGING FORECAST JUST THE SAME
AS DIFFERENCE IN A LITTLE WIND/MIXING AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS
CREATING A WIDE VARIANCE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

WHERE A STEADY SWLY WIND OCCURRING...EVENING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S COMMON. CONVERSELY WHERE THE SFC WIND HAS
DECOUPLED...TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 BEING REPORTED. THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT SHOULD CAUSE A
LIGHT SW-WLY FLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. FARTHER EAST
OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING SFC WINDS BECOME CALM. THUS...EXPECT COOLEST MIN TEMPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
WARMEST MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS MID 40S EAST-LOWER 50S WEST-NW. -WSS


SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

WARM AND DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. SINCE THE
STRONGEST WAA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY... THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS UPCOMING PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S MONDAY... WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS (EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

...INCREASING ODDS OF THE FIRST FREEZE BY NEXT WEEKEND...

...PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK... THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A GOOD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR... DRIVEN BY A
1035+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE A LOT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED
LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE REMNANTS OF ANA AS IT DRIVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE EUROPEAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEPER AND MORE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY SAT-SUN... WHILE THE GFS
IS NOT AS STRONG. REGARDLESS... A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST AT LEAST A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MORE EXTREME EUROPEAN MAY STILL DEVELOP... BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR
FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL CENTRAL
NC TERMINAL FORECAST SITES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEPLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR. A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHWARD INTO NRN AND NE NC TODAY...
FORCING CURRENT VERY LIGHT WIND MAINLY FROM THE SW TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT 8-12 KTS SUSTAINED AREAWIDE. SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST
AS HIGH AS 15-22 KTS ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI STARTING MID MORNING AND
CONTINUING UNTIL MID AFTERNOON... WHEN GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 23Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST... ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY WED MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 260215
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FINALLY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM...OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06 UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN
DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MARINE INFLUENCE
ALONG THE BEACHES DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WON`T MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY AND ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN FACT IT IS DISTRESSING HOW DRY THE AIR BECOMES AROUND
900 MB (~3000 FT AGL) AS THERE IS THE VERY REAL POTENTIAL THIS
BONE-DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS -10C TO -20C GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. AS IT IS NOW I HAVE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO FALL
TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY AND AS LOW AS 40 ON
MONDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR LIKELY TOUCHING/EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES. CLOSER TO THE COAST MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER. RECENT MOS BIAS STATISTICS SHOWS GFS MOS HAS BEEN
RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGHS...AND A DEGREE OR LESS TOO
WARM WITH LOWS. THE NAM MOS HAS LESS RECENT ACCUMULATED BIAS
EXCEPT AT LBT AND CRE WHERE ITS HIGHS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM
RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL HOLD TRUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
BOTH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKENING. THE WAY WILL THEN BE
PAVED THURSDAY FOR MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND A VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY CROSS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING.
THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RATHER BAGGY AND
DISORGANIZED AND THIS MOISTURE WHILE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE MAY
LINGER OVER PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...WAITING FOR A LARGER
PIECE OF ENERGY TO KICK IT OFFSHORE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/HALLOWEEN MORNING. THE 00Z ECWMF IS A NEW AND
RATHER EXTREME SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND LARGE CUTOFF
OVER TN...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOCAL WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR POSSIBLY MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER THIS HIGHS IN THE 80S. THURSDAYS HIGH MAY BE
HELD IN CHECK SLIGHTLY BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. AGAIN THIS MAY BE MODIFIED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AOB 5
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION. AS
A COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AOB 10 KT AT
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM...GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS.

THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO
15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1 FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING...THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH AS
HIGH AS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER CLOCKWISE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A SMALL WIND CHOP INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING UP ON TOP OF A WEAK
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS QUITE TAME.
AS SUCH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NO LARGE THAN 2 FT. AS BOTH RETREAT AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
VEER TO WESTERLY  BUT NO INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE DECELERATING FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND HOW MUCH FARTHER IT PROGRESSES FROM THERE
IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR








000
FXUS62 KILM 260215
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FINALLY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM...OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06 UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN
DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MARINE INFLUENCE
ALONG THE BEACHES DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WON`T MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY AND ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN FACT IT IS DISTRESSING HOW DRY THE AIR BECOMES AROUND
900 MB (~3000 FT AGL) AS THERE IS THE VERY REAL POTENTIAL THIS
BONE-DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS -10C TO -20C GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. AS IT IS NOW I HAVE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO FALL
TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY AND AS LOW AS 40 ON
MONDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR LIKELY TOUCHING/EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES. CLOSER TO THE COAST MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER. RECENT MOS BIAS STATISTICS SHOWS GFS MOS HAS BEEN
RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGHS...AND A DEGREE OR LESS TOO
WARM WITH LOWS. THE NAM MOS HAS LESS RECENT ACCUMULATED BIAS
EXCEPT AT LBT AND CRE WHERE ITS HIGHS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM
RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL HOLD TRUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
BOTH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKENING. THE WAY WILL THEN BE
PAVED THURSDAY FOR MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND A VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY CROSS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING.
THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RATHER BAGGY AND
DISORGANIZED AND THIS MOISTURE WHILE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE MAY
LINGER OVER PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...WAITING FOR A LARGER
PIECE OF ENERGY TO KICK IT OFFSHORE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/HALLOWEEN MORNING. THE 00Z ECWMF IS A NEW AND
RATHER EXTREME SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND LARGE CUTOFF
OVER TN...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOCAL WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR POSSIBLY MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER THIS HIGHS IN THE 80S. THURSDAYS HIGH MAY BE
HELD IN CHECK SLIGHTLY BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT STILL A BIT
ABOVE CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. AGAIN THIS MAY BE MODIFIED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AOB 5
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION. AS
A COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AOB 10 KT AT
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM...GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 2 PM FOLLOWS.

THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO
15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1 FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING...THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH AS
HIGH AS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER CLOCKWISE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A SMALL WIND CHOP INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING UP ON TOP OF A WEAK
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS QUITE TAME.
AS SUCH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NO LARGE THAN 2 FT. AS BOTH RETREAT AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
VEER TO WESTERLY  BUT NO INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE DECELERATING FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND HOW MUCH FARTHER IT PROGRESSES FROM THERE
IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR








000
FXUS62 KRAH 260153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE NOT A CRITICAL FORECAST...A CHALLENGING FORECAST JUST THE SAME
AS DIFFERENCE IN A LITTLE WIND/MIXING AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS
CREATING A WIDE VARIANCE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

WHERE A STEADY SWLY WIND OCCURRING...EVENING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S COMMON. CONVERSELY WHERE THE SFC WIND HAS
DECOUPLED...TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 BEING REPORTED. THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT SHOULD CAUSE A
LIGHT SW-WLY FLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. FARTHER EAST
OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING SFC WINDS BECOME CALM. THUS...EXPECT COOLEST MIN TEMPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
WARMEST MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS MID 40S EAST-LOWER 50S WEST-NW. -WSS


SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

WARM AND DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. SINCE THE
STRONGEST WAA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY... THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS UPCOMING PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S MONDAY... WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS (EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

...INCREASING ODDS OF THE FIRST FREEZE BY NEXT WEEKEND...

...PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK... THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A GOOD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR... DRIVEN BY A
1035+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE A LOT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED
LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE REMNANTS OF ANA AS IT DRIVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE EUROPEAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEPER AND MORE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY SAT-SUN... WHILE THE GFS
IS NOT AS STRONG. REGARDLESS... A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST AT LEAST A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MORE EXTREME EUROPEAN MAY STILL DEVELOP... BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR
FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...AND WHILE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR...WINDS MAY
REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY AT 3-6 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE WINDS COULD
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME. WITH THE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
LOW LINGERING OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTS SHOULD ABATE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE NOT A CRITICAL FORECAST...A CHALLENGING FORECAST JUST THE SAME
AS DIFFERENCE IN A LITTLE WIND/MIXING AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS
CREATING A WIDE VARIANCE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

WHERE A STEADY SWLY WIND OCCURRING...EVENING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S-
LOWER 60S COMMON. CONVERSELY WHERE THE SFC WIND HAS
DECOUPLED...TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 BEING REPORTED. THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT SHOULD CAUSE A
LIGHT SW-WLY FLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. FARTHER EAST
OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING SFC WINDS BECOME CALM. THUS...EXPECT COOLEST MIN TEMPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
WARMEST MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS MID 40S EAST-LOWER 50S WEST-NW. -WSS


SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

WARM AND DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. SINCE THE
STRONGEST WAA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY... THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS UPCOMING PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S MONDAY... WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS (EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

...INCREASING ODDS OF THE FIRST FREEZE BY NEXT WEEKEND...

...PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK... THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A GOOD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR... DRIVEN BY A
1035+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE A LOT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED
LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE REMNANTS OF ANA AS IT DRIVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE EUROPEAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEPER AND MORE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY SAT-SUN... WHILE THE GFS
IS NOT AS STRONG. REGARDLESS... A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST AT LEAST A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MORE EXTREME EUROPEAN MAY STILL DEVELOP... BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR
FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...AND WHILE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR...WINDS MAY
REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY AT 3-6 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE WINDS COULD
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME. WITH THE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
LOW LINGERING OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTS SHOULD ABATE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260151
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO A
DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY
DECOUPLED INLAND THIS EVENING BUT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
LATE SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT BREEZE DEVELOPING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEWPOINT FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO
FORCING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON FRONT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING.
THUS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO
20 KT AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 138 PM SAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE A FRONT APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUN/...
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT THIS
EVENING IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PER LATEST NWPS/SWAN LOCAL WAVE MODEL...2 TO 3 FT SEAS
THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 217 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME







000
FXUS62 KILM 252322
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FINALLY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06
UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS
RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MARINE INFLUENCE
ALONG THE BEACHES DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WON`T MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY AND ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN FACT IT IS DISTRESSING HOW DRY THE AIR BECOMES AROUND
900 MB (~3000 FT AGL) AS THERE IS THE VERY REAL POTENTIAL THIS
BONE-DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS -10C TO -20C GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. AS IT IS NOW I HAVE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO
FALL TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY AND AS LOW AS 40 ON MONDAY...
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR LIKELY TOUCHING/EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES. CLOSER TO THE COAST MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER. RECENT MOS BIAS STATISTICS SHOWS GFS MOS HAS BEEN
RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGHS...AND A DEGREE OR LESS TOO
WARM WITH LOWS. THE NAM MOS HAS LESS RECENT ACCUMULATED BIAS
EXCEPT AT LBT AND CRE WHERE ITS HIGHS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM
RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
HOLD TRUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH BOTH FEATURES WILL BE BOTH
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKENING. THE WAY WILL THEN BE
PAVED THURSDAY FOR MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND A VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY CROSS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING.
THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RATHER BAGGY AND
DISORGANIZED AND THIS MOISTURE WHILE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE MAY
LINGER OVER PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...WAITING FOR A LARGER
PIECE OF ENERGY TO KICK IT OFFSHORE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/HALLOWEEN MORNING. THE 00Z ECWMF IS A NEW AND
RATHER EXTREME SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND LARGE CUTOFF
OVER TN...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOCAL WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR POSSIBLY MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER THIS HIGHS IN THE 80S. THURSDAYS HIGH MAY
BE HELD IN CHECK SLIGHTLY BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT STILL A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN THIS MAY BE MODIFIED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN AS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AOB 5
KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION. AS
A COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AOB 10 KT AT
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES
AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1
FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING...THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH AS
HIGH AS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER CLOCKWISE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A SMALL WIND CHOP INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING UP ON TOP OF A WEAK
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS QUITE TAME.
AS SUCH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NO LARGE THAN 2 FT. AS BOTH RETREAT AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
VEER TO WESTERLY  BUT NO INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE DECELERATING FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND HOW MUCH FARTHER IT PROGRESSES FROM THERE
IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR








000
FXUS62 KRAH 252319
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
719 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID WEEK... BEFORE A
TURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB
DATA)... ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PRIOR DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO
AT 15Z) DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIGHT W/NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD
COOLING...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM
WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

WARM AND DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. SINCE THE
STRONGEST WAA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY... THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS UPCOMING PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S MONDAY... WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS (EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

...INCREASING ODDS OF THE FIRST FREEZE BY NEXT WEEKEND...

...PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK... THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A GOOD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR... DRIVEN BY A
1035+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE A LOT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED
LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE REMNANTS OF ANA AS IT DRIVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE EUROPEAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEPER AND MORE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY SAT-SUN... WHILE THE GFS
IS NOT AS STRONG. REGARDLESS... A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST AT LEAST A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MORE EXTREME EUROPEAN MAY STILL DEVELOP... BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR
FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...AND WHILE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR...WINDS MAY
REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY AT 3-6 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE WINDS COULD
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME. WITH THE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
LOW LINGERING OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTS SHOULD ABATE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 252235
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY MID CLOUD CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE COULD MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE AS A DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES OTHERWISE EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A
LITTLE BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A
LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE
WIND FIELDS (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEWPOINT FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO
FORCING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON FRONT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING.
THUS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO
20 KT AT TIMES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 138 PM SAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE A FRONT APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUN/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT THIS
EVENING IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PER LATEST NWPS/SWAN LOCAL WAVE MODEL...2 TO 3 FT SEAS
THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 217 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME







000
FXUS62 KRAH 251918
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID WEEK... BEFORE A
TURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB
DATA)... ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PRIOR DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO
AT 15Z) DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIGHT W/NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD
COOLING...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM
WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

WARM AND DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. SINCE THE
STRONGEST WAA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY... THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS UPCOMING PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S MONDAY... WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS (EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

...INCREASING ODDS OF THE FIRST FREEZE BY NEXT WEEKEND...

...PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK... THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A GOOD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR... DRIVEN BY A
1035+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE A LOT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED
LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE REMNANTS OF ANA AS IT DRIVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE EUROPEAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEPER AND MORE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY SAT-SUN... WHILE THE GFS
IS NOT AS STRONG. REGARDLESS... A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST AT LEAST A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MORE EXTREME EUROPEAN MAY STILL DEVELOP... BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR
FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET SUN EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251918
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID WEEK... BEFORE A
TURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB
DATA)... ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PRIOR DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO
AT 15Z) DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIGHT W/NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD
COOLING...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM
WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

WARM AND DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. SINCE THE
STRONGEST WAA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY... THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS UPCOMING PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S MONDAY... WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS (EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

...INCREASING ODDS OF THE FIRST FREEZE BY NEXT WEEKEND...

...PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK... THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A GOOD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR... DRIVEN BY A
1035+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE A LOT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED
LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE REMNANTS OF ANA AS IT DRIVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE EUROPEAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEPER AND MORE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY SAT-SUN... WHILE THE GFS
IS NOT AS STRONG. REGARDLESS... A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST AT LEAST A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MORE EXTREME EUROPEAN MAY STILL DEVELOP... BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR
FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET SUN EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251917
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID WEEK... BEFORE A
TURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB
DATA)... ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PRIOR DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO
AT 15Z) DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIGHT W/NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD
COOLING...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM
WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

WARM AND DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. SINCE THE
STRONGEST WAA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY... THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS UPCOMING PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S MONDAY... WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS (EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

...INCREASING ODDS OF THE FIRST FREEZE BY NEXT WEEKEND...

...PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK... THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A GOOD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR... DRIVEN BY A
1035+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE A LOT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED
LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE REMNANTS OF ANA AS IT DRIVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE EUROPEAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEPER AND MORE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY SAT-SUN... WHILE THE GFS
IS NOT AS STRONG. REGARDLESS... A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST AT LEAST A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MORE EXTREME EUROPEAN MAY STILL DEVELOP... BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR
FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET SUN EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251917
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID WEEK... BEFORE A
TURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB
DATA)... ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PRIOR DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO
AT 15Z) DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIGHT W/NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD
COOLING...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM
WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

WARM AND DRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW A SW FLOW TO RETURN
TO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. SINCE THE
STRONGEST WAA IS EXPECTED TUESDAY... THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS UPCOMING PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S MONDAY... WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS (EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...

...INCREASING ODDS OF THE FIRST FREEZE BY NEXT WEEKEND...

...PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
FOR OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK... THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A GOOD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR... DRIVEN BY A
1035+ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE A LOT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED
LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE REMNANTS OF ANA AS IT DRIVES INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE EUROPEAN AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEPER AND MORE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY SAT-SUN... WHILE THE GFS
IS NOT AS STRONG. REGARDLESS... A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST AT LEAST A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE MORE EXTREME EUROPEAN MAY STILL DEVELOP... BUT IS STILL
CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE... THE PROBABILITY OF THE FIRST KILLING FROST OR
FREEZE FOR OUR REGION IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY... WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
POTENTIALLY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES IF NOT MORE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET SUN EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251916
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND REACH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE
TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY AND PERHAPS LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEWPOINT FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO
FORCING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON FRONT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WIND
GUIDANCE INDICATES SPEEDS OF 4 T0 6 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE VSBY GUIDANCE AND LOCAL FOG
INDEX ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 138 PM SAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE A FRONT APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUN/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TODAY. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH COLD FRONT ADVANCING TO NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT W/WNW TO BECOME NW AT 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KNOTS
BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. PER LATEST NWPS/SWAN LOCAL WAVE MODEL...EXPECT SEAS
WILL NOT EXCEED 4 OR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY 5 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 217 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251916
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND REACH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE
TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY AND PERHAPS LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEWPOINT FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO
FORCING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON FRONT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WIND
GUIDANCE INDICATES SPEEDS OF 4 T0 6 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE VSBY GUIDANCE AND LOCAL FOG
INDEX ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 138 PM SAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE A FRONT APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUN/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TODAY. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH COLD FRONT ADVANCING TO NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT W/WNW TO BECOME NW AT 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KNOTS
BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. PER LATEST NWPS/SWAN LOCAL WAVE MODEL...EXPECT SEAS
WILL NOT EXCEED 4 OR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY 5 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 217 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KILM 251838
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
238 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FINALLY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06
UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS
RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MARINE INFLUENCE
ALONG THE BEACHES DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WON`T MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY AND ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN FACT IT IS DISTRESSING HOW DRY THE AIR BECOMES AROUND
900 MB (~3000 FT AGL) AS THERE IS THE VERY REAL POTENTIAL THIS
BONE-DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS -10C TO -20C GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. AS IT IS NOW I HAVE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO
FALL TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY AND AS LOW AS 40 ON MONDAY...
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR LIKELY TOUCHING/EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES. CLOSER TO THE COAST MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER. RECENT MOS BIAS STATISTICS SHOWS GFS MOS HAS BEEN
RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGHS...AND A DEGREE OR LESS TOO
WARM WITH LOWS. THE NAM MOS HAS LESS RECENT ACCUMULATED BIAS
EXCEPT AT LBT AND CRE WHERE ITS HIGHS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM
RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
HOLD TRUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH BOTH FEATURES WILL BE BOTH
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKENING. THE WAY WILL THEN BE
PAVED THURSDAY FOR MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND A VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY CROSS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING.
THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RATHER BAGGY AND
DISORGANIZED AND THIS MOISTURE WHILE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE MAY
LINGER OVER PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...WAITING FOR A LARGER
PIECE OF ENERGY TO KICK IT OFFSHORE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/HALLOWEEN MORNING. THE 00Z ECWMF IS A NEW AND
RATHER EXTREME SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND LARGE CUTOFF
OVER TN...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOCAL WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR POSSIBLY MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER THIS HIGHS IN THE 80S. THURSDAYS HIGH MAY
BE HELD IN CHECK SLIGHTLY BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT STILL A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN THIS MAY BE MODIFIED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN AS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS...SW-NW AT TIMES...EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE S-SW WINDS DUE TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT KCRE/KMYR.
SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE W-NW.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT 14-15Z WITH CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES
AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1
FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING...THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH AS
HIGH AS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER CLOCKWISE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A SMALL WIND CHOP INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING UP ON TOP OF A WEAK
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS QUITE TAME.
AS SUCH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NO LARGE THAN 2 FT. AS BOTH RETREAT AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
VEER TO WESTERLY  BUT NO INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE DECELERATING FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND HOW MUCH FARTHER IT PROGRESSES FROM THERE
IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 251838
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
238 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FINALLY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06
UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS
RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MARINE INFLUENCE
ALONG THE BEACHES DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WON`T MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY AND ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN FACT IT IS DISTRESSING HOW DRY THE AIR BECOMES AROUND
900 MB (~3000 FT AGL) AS THERE IS THE VERY REAL POTENTIAL THIS
BONE-DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS -10C TO -20C GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. AS IT IS NOW I HAVE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO
FALL TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY AND AS LOW AS 40 ON MONDAY...
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR LIKELY TOUCHING/EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES. CLOSER TO THE COAST MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER. RECENT MOS BIAS STATISTICS SHOWS GFS MOS HAS BEEN
RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGHS...AND A DEGREE OR LESS TOO
WARM WITH LOWS. THE NAM MOS HAS LESS RECENT ACCUMULATED BIAS
EXCEPT AT LBT AND CRE WHERE ITS HIGHS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM
RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
HOLD TRUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH BOTH FEATURES WILL BE BOTH
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKENING. THE WAY WILL THEN BE
PAVED THURSDAY FOR MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND A VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY CROSS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING.
THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RATHER BAGGY AND
DISORGANIZED AND THIS MOISTURE WHILE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE MAY
LINGER OVER PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...WAITING FOR A LARGER
PIECE OF ENERGY TO KICK IT OFFSHORE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/HALLOWEEN MORNING. THE 00Z ECWMF IS A NEW AND
RATHER EXTREME SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND LARGE CUTOFF
OVER TN...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOCAL WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR POSSIBLY MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER THIS HIGHS IN THE 80S. THURSDAYS HIGH MAY
BE HELD IN CHECK SLIGHTLY BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT STILL A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN THIS MAY BE MODIFIED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN AS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS...SW-NW AT TIMES...EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE S-SW WINDS DUE TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT KCRE/KMYR.
SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE W-NW.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT 14-15Z WITH CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES
AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1
FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING...THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH AS
HIGH AS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER CLOCKWISE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A SMALL WIND CHOP INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING UP ON TOP OF A WEAK
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS QUITE TAME.
AS SUCH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NO LARGE THAN 2 FT. AS BOTH RETREAT AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
VEER TO WESTERLY  BUT NO INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE DECELERATING FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND HOW MUCH FARTHER IT PROGRESSES FROM THERE
IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 251759
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
159 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06
UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS
RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONG-WAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONG-WAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS...SW-NW AT TIMES...EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE S-SW WINDS DUE TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT KCRE/KMYR.
SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE W-NW.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT 14-15Z WITH CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES
AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1
FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS EARLY
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL
REACH 15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO
NE BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS...BUT WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2
FT SEAS...WITH SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 251759
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
159 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06
UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS
RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONG-WAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONG-WAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS...SW-NW AT TIMES...EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE S-SW WINDS DUE TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT KCRE/KMYR.
SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE W-NW.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT 14-15Z WITH CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES
AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1
FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS EARLY
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL
REACH 15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO
NE BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHEST WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS...BUT WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2
FT SEAS...WITH SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KRAH 251756
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
156 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB
DATA)... ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PRIOR DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO
AT 15Z) DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIGHT W/NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD
COOLING...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM
WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET SUN EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251756
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
156 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB
DATA)... ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PRIOR DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO
AT 15Z) DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIGHT W/NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD
COOLING...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM
WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET SUN EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB
DATA)... ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PRIOR DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO
AT 15Z) DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIGHT W/NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD
COOLING...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM
WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S. -VINCENT

SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET SUN EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB
DATA)... ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PRIOR DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO
AT 15Z) DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIGHT W/NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD
COOLING...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM
WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S. -VINCENT

SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUN/SUN
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MON. COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AS WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THAT MOS GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST TO THE LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT
~15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL
NC/VA FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET SUN EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AREA-WIDE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WIND
GUIDANCE INDICATES SPEEDS OF 4 T0 6 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE VSBY GUIDANCE AND LOCAL FOG
INDEX ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WINDS CONTINUE NNW/NW AT NOW 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
BACK TO A MORE W/SW DIRECTION TONIGHT AND INCREASE AS GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACH COLD FRONT INCREASES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD
CONTINUE IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CTC/HSA







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AREA-WIDE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WIND
GUIDANCE INDICATES SPEEDS OF 4 T0 6 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE VSBY GUIDANCE AND LOCAL FOG
INDEX ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WINDS CONTINUE NNW/NW AT NOW 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
BACK TO A MORE W/SW DIRECTION TONIGHT AND INCREASE AS GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACH COLD FRONT INCREASES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD
CONTINUE IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CTC/HSA







000
FXUS62 KRAH 251559
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1158 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB DATA)...
ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PRIOR
DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO AT 15Z) DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE
OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A LIGHT W/NW
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THIS
WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD COOLING...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. -VINCENT

FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STABLE MID LEVELS
WILL PERSIST OVER NC. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE
NC SUN... HOWEVER THE DIP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED TO FAR NRN AND NE NC. IN FACT...
THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER SUN
THAN SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... PERHAPS TOUCHING
80 IN THE SC BORDER COUNTIES... WITH SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT... AND THE CALMING AIR AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL FACILITATE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... FAVORING LOWS A TAD BELOW NORMAL...
40-47. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE SUN MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO
~10 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 251528
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1128 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM SATURDAY...ALOFT VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 0.3 TO 0.4 INCH RANGE
WHICH IS WELL BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE AT
CHS AND GSO.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS PROJECTED BY THE 13 UTC RUN OF
THE HRRR MAINLY SOUTH OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THE SEA BREEZE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
10 TO 15 MILES BEFORE SUNSET.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT THE HIGHS TODAY TO REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT FOR LOW
70S AT THE BEACHES WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE SEA BREEZE.

NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PATCHY GROUND
FOG THAT IS OCCURRING...FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
BURN-OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER
MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS BY 17Z. JUST SCT
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS AND A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING
LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE COAST WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK TO THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SEA- BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY TO 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST
WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 251345
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
945 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED OFF
THE COAST AND VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 0.3 TO 0.4 INCH RANGE WHICH IS WELL
BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE AT CHS AND GSO.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS PROJECTED BY THE 11 UTC RUN
OF THE HRRR MAINLY BETWEEN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER. THE SEA BREEZE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND 10 TO 15
MILES BEFORE SUNSET.

WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE EXPECT THE HIGHS TODAY TO REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT FOR LOW
70S AT THE BEACHES WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE SEA BREEZE.

NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS PERIOD. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS
OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PATCHY GROUND
FOG THAT IS OCCURRING...FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
BURN-OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER
MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS BY 17Z. JUST SCT
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS AND A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE COAST WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY TO 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST
WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP
TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251343
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH N/NW
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH FORECAST MAXIMUM
VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 70S AREA-WIDE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...IFR FOG AT KPGV AND MVFR AT KISO EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY NEXT HOUR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD
ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SAT...WINDS ARE GENERALLY N/NW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ON
ALL AREA WATERS WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW
AND INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CTC/HSA







000
FXUS62 KILM 251144
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
744 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO SUNDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF
NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS HAS VIRTUALLY
ELIMINATED THE PATCHY FOG.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER LESSER DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVE AND
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY.

THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...KEEPING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THERE IS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 8 KFT.
THUS...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE.

NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK ON THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WE SHOULD SEE A
QUICK TURN AROUND IN TEMPS THIS MORNING. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE
NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COMMONLY BE IN THE MID 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE
SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME. WE EXPECT THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE MOVING INLAND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING
TEMPS NEARER TO THE COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER MIXED
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO ELEVATE TEMPS...THUS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD BE MOST COMMON...CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING. AT THE BEACHES...READINGS WILL LIKELY NOT
DROP BELOW THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TO TAKE SOME POETIC LICENSE FROM KENNY
CHESNEY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE "NO CLOUDS...NO PRECIP...NO
PROBLEMS"...WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE
RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH
CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SCOOTS OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH
DAYS...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
HOWEVER...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AROUND 50...WITH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PATCHY GROUND
FOG THAT IS OCCURRING...FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
BURN-OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER
MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS BY 17Z. JUST SCT
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS AND A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. N TO NW WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO
A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK TO SW AS A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL VEER
WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE TO 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...RJD/JDW







000
FXUS62 KILM 251144
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
744 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO SUNDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF
NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS HAS VIRTUALLY
ELIMINATED THE PATCHY FOG.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER LESSER DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVE AND
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY.

THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...KEEPING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THERE IS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 8 KFT.
THUS...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE.

NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK ON THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WE SHOULD SEE A
QUICK TURN AROUND IN TEMPS THIS MORNING. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE
NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COMMONLY BE IN THE MID 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE
SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME. WE EXPECT THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE MOVING INLAND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING
TEMPS NEARER TO THE COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER MIXED
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO ELEVATE TEMPS...THUS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD BE MOST COMMON...CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING. AT THE BEACHES...READINGS WILL LIKELY NOT
DROP BELOW THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TO TAKE SOME POETIC LICENSE FROM KENNY
CHESNEY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE "NO CLOUDS...NO PRECIP...NO
PROBLEMS"...WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE
RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH
CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SCOOTS OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH
DAYS...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
HOWEVER...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AROUND 50...WITH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PATCHY GROUND
FOG THAT IS OCCURRING...FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
BURN-OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER
MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS BY 17Z. JUST SCT
CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS AND A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. N TO NW WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO
A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK TO SW AS A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL VEER
WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE TO 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...RJD/JDW







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
731 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PTS NEXT
FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
SHRT WV RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...AND SFC HIGH PRES
EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM W. MAX INSOLATION AND LIGHT W WINDS SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS TO 73-75 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...IFR FOG AT KPGV AND MVFR AT KISO EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY NEXT HOUR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD
ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW AND INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
731 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PTS NEXT
FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
SHRT WV RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...AND SFC HIGH PRES
EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM W. MAX INSOLATION AND LIGHT W WINDS SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS TO 73-75 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...IFR FOG AT KPGV AND MVFR AT KISO EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY NEXT HOUR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD
ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW AND INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
731 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PTS NEXT
FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
SHRT WV RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...AND SFC HIGH PRES
EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM W. MAX INSOLATION AND LIGHT W WINDS SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS TO 73-75 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...IFR FOG AT KPGV AND MVFR AT KISO EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY NEXT HOUR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD
ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW AND INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
731 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PTS NEXT
FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
SHRT WV RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...AND SFC HIGH PRES
EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM W. MAX INSOLATION AND LIGHT W WINDS SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS TO 73-75 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...IFR FOG AT KPGV AND MVFR AT KISO EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY NEXT HOUR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD
ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW AND INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA








000
FXUS62 KRAH 251103
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL PUSH SE OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS
MORNING... LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE SW... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN ALSO FROM THE SW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS
INCLUDING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORT DEEP DRY AIR OVER NC TODAY
WITH STABLE MID LEVELS. PLENTIFUL SUN AND THICKNESSES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 72-76.
STRONG VORTICITY DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE BASE OF A LOW CROSSING SE CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
(NOW OVER THE MIDWEST) TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NC TONIGHT. SURFACE
FLOW FROM THE WEST OR WSW WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH THE TIGHTENING
MSLP GRADIENT... HOWEVER THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE
FROM 850-750 MB DROPPING SE THROUGH NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE AT THIS LEVEL... HOWEVER THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER... AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE LARGE PART OF TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STIRRED NEAR-SURFACE AIR
ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 45-50.

FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STABLE MID LEVELS
WILL PERSIST OVER NC. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE
NC SUN... HOWEVER THE DIP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED TO FAR NRN AND NE NC. IN FACT...
THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER SUN
THAN SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... PERHAPS TOUCHING
80 IN THE SC BORDER COUNTIES... WITH SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT... AND THE CALMING AIR AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL FACILITATE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... FAVORING LOWS A TAD BELOW NORMAL...
40-47. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION: SHALLOW PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT RWI THIS
MORNING UNTIL AROUND 13Z... PRODUCING PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR FROM THE
LOW LEVELS ON UP WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD COVER... AND ONLY SCATTERED TO
BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 6 000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED FROM MID
EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NC FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT... COMING FROM A
SW/W/NW DIRECTION UNDER 6 KTS TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT MAINLY
NW TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY SUN MORNING... SMALL CHANCE OF PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG AT ALL SITES AROUND 12Z SUN... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH INITIAL DRY FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE NW TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251103
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL PUSH SE OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS
MORNING... LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE SW... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN ALSO FROM THE SW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS
INCLUDING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORT DEEP DRY AIR OVER NC TODAY
WITH STABLE MID LEVELS. PLENTIFUL SUN AND THICKNESSES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 72-76.
STRONG VORTICITY DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE BASE OF A LOW CROSSING SE CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
(NOW OVER THE MIDWEST) TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NC TONIGHT. SURFACE
FLOW FROM THE WEST OR WSW WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH THE TIGHTENING
MSLP GRADIENT... HOWEVER THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE
FROM 850-750 MB DROPPING SE THROUGH NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE AT THIS LEVEL... HOWEVER THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER... AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE LARGE PART OF TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STIRRED NEAR-SURFACE AIR
ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 45-50.

FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STABLE MID LEVELS
WILL PERSIST OVER NC. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE
NC SUN... HOWEVER THE DIP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED TO FAR NRN AND NE NC. IN FACT...
THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER SUN
THAN SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... PERHAPS TOUCHING
80 IN THE SC BORDER COUNTIES... WITH SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT... AND THE CALMING AIR AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL FACILITATE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... FAVORING LOWS A TAD BELOW NORMAL...
40-47. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION: SHALLOW PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT RWI THIS
MORNING UNTIL AROUND 13Z... PRODUCING PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR FROM THE
LOW LEVELS ON UP WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD COVER... AND ONLY SCATTERED TO
BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 6 000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED FROM MID
EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES
NC FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT... COMING FROM A
SW/W/NW DIRECTION UNDER 6 KTS TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT MAINLY
NW TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY SUN MORNING... SMALL CHANCE OF PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG AT ALL SITES AROUND 12Z SUN... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH INITIAL DRY FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE NW TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 251026
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO SUNDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF
NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS HAS VIRTUALLY
ELIMINATED THE PATCHY FOG.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER LESSER DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVE AND
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY.

THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...KEEPING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THERE IS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 8 KFT.
THUS...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE.

NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK ON THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WE SHOULD SEE A
QUICK TURN AROUND IN TEMPS THIS MORNING. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE
NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COMMONLY BE IN THE MID 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE
SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME. WE EXPECT THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE MOVING INLAND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING
TEMPS NEARER TO THE COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER MIXED
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO ELEVATE TEMPS...THUS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD BE MOST COMMON...CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING. AT THE BEACHES...READINGS WILL LIKELY NOT
DROP BELOW THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TO TAKE SOME POETIC LICENSE FROM KENNY
CHESNEY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE "NO CLOUDS...NO PRECIP...NO
PROBLEMS"...WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE
RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH
CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SCOOTS OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH
DAYS...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
HOWEVER...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AROUND 50...WITH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING AS LOWER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN WINDS ARE VIRTUALLY CALM. THUS...HAVE
ADDED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT KLBT. LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR
MAY SEE S-SW WINDS AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO
DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. N TO NW WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO
A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK TO SW AS A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL VEER
WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE TO 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR/RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW














000
FXUS62 KMHX 250806
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
SHRT WV RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...AND SFC HIGH PRES
EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM W. MAX INSOLATION AND LIGHT W WINDS SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS TO 73-75 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...PROBLEM AREA WILL BE KPGV THROUGH EARLY
MORNING WITH STEAM FOG PRODUCING PERIOD OF IFR/OCNL LIFR. PREVAILING
VFR EXPECTED REST OF AREA WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY PSBL AT
KISO 09Z-12Z. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW AND INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA








000
FXUS62 KILM 250721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
321 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY WITH
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDERWAY...
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMN WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED...OWING TO THE
TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE FOG THAT HAS MANAGED TO FORM. ANY PATCHY
FOG WILL  DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER LESSER DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVE AND
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY.

THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...KEEPING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THERE IS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 8 KFT.
THUS...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE.

NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...
COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK ON THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WE SHOULD SEE A
QUICK TURN AROUND IN TEMPS THIS MORNING. IN MANY CASES THE DIURNAL
RANGE WILL BE NEAR 30 DEGREES TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMONLY
BE IN THE MID 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE SOME
INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME. WE EXPECT THE
SEABREEZE WILL BE MOVING INLAND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING
TEMPS NEARER TO THE COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. A BETTER MIXED
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO ELEVATE TEMPS...THUS LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD BE MOST COMMON. AT THE BEACHES...
READINGS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TO TAKE SOME POETIC LICENSE FROM KENNY
CHESNEY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE "NO CLOUDS...NO PRECIP...NO
PROBLEMS"...WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE
RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH
CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SCOOTS OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH
DAYS...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
HOWEVER...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AROUND 50...WITH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN.

500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND
NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE
WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR
60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING
THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE
IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST
COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING AS LOWER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN WINDS ARE VIRTUALLY CALM. THUS...HAVE
ADDED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT KLBT. LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR
MAY SEE S-SW WINDS AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO
DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. N TO NW WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO
A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK TO SW AS A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL VEER
WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE TO 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY
REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO
THIS EVE...BUILDING UP TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE
PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH
15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT
THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE
BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT
WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM
THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND
WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND
10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM
THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS
A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD
MARINE...RJD/JDW











000
FXUS62 KRAH 250711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL PUSH SE OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS
MORNING... LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE SW... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN ALSO FROM THE SW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS
INCLUDING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORT DEEP DRY AIR OVER NC TODAY
WITH STABLE MID LEVELS. PLENTIFUL SUN AND THICKNESSES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 72-76.
STRONG VORTICITY DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE BASE OF A LOW CROSSING SE CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
(NOW OVER THE MIDWEST) TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NC TONIGHT. SURFACE
FLOW FROM THE WEST OR WSW WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH THE TIGHTENING
MSLP GRADIENT... HOWEVER THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE
FROM 850-750 MB DROPPING SE THROUGH NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE AT THIS LEVEL... HOWEVER THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER... AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE LARGE PART OF TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STIRRED NEAR-SURFACE AIR
ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 45-50.

FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STABLE MID LEVELS
WILL PERSIST OVER NC. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE
NC SUN... HOWEVER THE DIP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED TO FAR NRN AND NE NC. IN FACT...
THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER SUN
THAN SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... PERHAPS TOUCHING
80 IN THE SC BORDER COUNTIES... WITH SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT... AND THE CALMING AIR AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL FACILITATE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... FAVORING LOWS A TAD BELOW NORMAL...
40-47. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW LEVELS ON UP WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD COVER... AND ONLY
SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 6 000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM THE NORTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION: WE ARE
WATCHING OUT FOR POTENTIAL SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFFECTING RWI
EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT... COMING FROM A SW/W/NW
DIRECTION UNDER 6 KTS TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT MAINLY NW
TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN AT ALL SITES 09Z-13Z SUN... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH INITIAL DRY FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE NW TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 250550
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN CLEARING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES WHERE A LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...PROBLEM AREA WILL BE KPGV THROUGH EARLY
MORNING WITH STEAM FOG PRODUCING PERIOD OF IFR/OCNL LIFR. PREVAILING
VFR EXPECTED REST OF AREA WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY PSBL AT
KISO 09Z-12Z. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT AND
BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JME
NEAR TERM...CGG/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...CGG/JME/TL/JBM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 250546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL PUSH SE OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS
MORNING... LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE SW... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN ALSO FROM THE SW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS
INCLUDING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORT DEEP DRY AIR OVER NC TODAY
WITH STABLE MID LEVELS. PLENTIFUL SUN AND THICKNESSES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 72-76.
STRONG VORTICITY DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE BASE OF A LOW CROSSING SE CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
(NOW OVER THE MIDWEST) TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NC TONIGHT. SURFACE
FLOW FROM THE WEST OR WSW WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH THE TIGHTENING
MSLP GRADIENT... HOWEVER THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE
FROM 850-750 MB DROPPING SE THROUGH NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE AT THIS LEVEL... HOWEVER THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER... AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE LARGE PART OF TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STIRRED NEAR-SURFACE AIR
ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 45-50.

FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STABLE MID LEVELS
WILL PERSIST OVER NC. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE
NC SUN... HOWEVER THE DIP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED TO FAR NRN AND NE NC. IN FACT...
THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER SUN
THAN SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... PERHAPS TOUCHING
80 IN THE SC BORDER COUNTIES... WITH SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT... AND THE CALMING AIR AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL FACILITATE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... FAVORING LOWS A TAD BELOW NORMAL...
40-47. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THEN A
BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH OR
SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX OUT
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS SHOULD
BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 28...
WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL RECORDED
IN 1919.

SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC...
AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE
LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR
LATITUDE YET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW LEVELS ON UP WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD COVER... AND ONLY
SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 6 000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM THE NORTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION: WE ARE
WATCHING OUT FOR POTENTIAL SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFFECTING RWI
EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT... COMING FROM A SW/W/NW
DIRECTION UNDER 6 KTS TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT MAINLY NW
TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN AT ALL SITES 09Z-13Z SUN... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH INITIAL DRY FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE NW TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 250523
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED BY THE
MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF.

CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD
CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING
CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP
TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS
LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE
FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
JUST OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
BOTH PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE
DEEP OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
DIPPING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
GIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LIKELY COMING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-
IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW
SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND
THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.
COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING AS LOWER DEWPOINTS
REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN WINDS ARE VIRTUALLY CALM. THUS...HAVE
ADDED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. LIFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT KLBT. LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR
MAY SEE S-SW WINDS AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO
DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF. AHEAD OF THIS
SFC TROF...W-NW WINDS MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KT. THIS SFC TROF
PASSAGE TO OCCUR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT WILL YIELD NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED VERY WELL BY GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY WITH WAVEWATCH3 DURING THE PAST 24+ HRS. PARTICULARLY
THE 1-2+ FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10+ SECOND PERIODS.
THIS WAS DEFINITELY FELT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE
SURF BREAKS WERE OBSERVED AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PRODUCED A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BEACHES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY
MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
VEERING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE
DAY IF NOT BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OFF THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS
WILL REMAIN AT 2 FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR/RJD






000
FXUS62 KRAH 250453
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM FRIDAY...

WELL DEFINED S/W CROSSING SC EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
VERIFYING A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST (TOO SLOW) PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LOOP. THIS FEATURE PROJECTED TO DRIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT. THIS PLACES
THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY TO
OUR SE.

IR SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS CIRRUS SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS UPPER DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO WANE. AS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRIFTS SEWD AWAY FROM OUR REGION...EXPECT THIS
DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND TO CONTINUE.

UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME...TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO COOL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH UPPER 30S HIGHLY PROBABLE AT THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX
OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS
SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER
28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL
RECORDED IN 1919.

SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC...
AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE
LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR
LATITUDE YET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW LEVELS ON UP WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD COVER... AND ONLY
SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 6 000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM THE NORTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION: WE ARE
WATCHING OUT FOR POTENTIAL SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFFECTING RWI
EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT... COMING FROM A SW/W/NW
DIRECTION UNDER 6 KTS TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT MAINLY NW
TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN AT ALL SITES 09Z-13Z SUN... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH INITIAL DRY FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE NW TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 250443
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN CLEARING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES WHERE A LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH BASES 15,000-20,000 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT AND
BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JME
NEAR TERM...CGG/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...CGG/JME/TL/JBM







000
FXUS62 KILM 250307
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1107 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED BY THE
MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF.

CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD
CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING
CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP
TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS
LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE
FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
JUST OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
BOTH PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE
DEEP OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
DIPPING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
GIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LIKELY COMING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-
IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW
SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND
THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.
COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SAT MORNING...CIRRUS COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AND SKC WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT N-NW WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...REMAINING AOB 8 KT.
COULD SEE A MORE S-SW WIND AT KCRE/KMYR AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF. AHEAD OF THIS
SFC TROF...W-NW WINDS MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KT. THIS SFC TROF
PASSAGE TO OCCUR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT WILL YIELD NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED VERY WELL BY GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY WITH WAVEWATCH3 DURING THE PAST 24+ HRS. PARTICULARLY
THE 1-2+ FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10+ SECOND PERIODS.
THIS WAS DEFINITELY FELT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE
SURF BREAKS WERE OBSERVED AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PRODUCED A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BEACHES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY
MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR






000
FXUS62 KMHX 250131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
931 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN CLEARING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES WHERE A LIGHT
BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH BASES 15,000-20,000 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 3
TO 5 FT SEAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT AND BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4
FT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JME
NEAR TERM...CGG/JME
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...CGG/JME/TL







000
FXUS62 KRAH 250110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
910 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM FRIDAY...

WELL DEFINED S/W CROSSING SC EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
VERIFYING A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST (TOO SLOW) PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LOOP. THIS FEATURE PROJECTED TO DRIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT. THIS PLACES
THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY TO
OUR SE.

IR SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS CIRRUS SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS UPPER DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO WANE. AS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRIFTS SEWD AWAY FROM OUR REGION...EXPECT THIS
DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND TO CONTINUE.

UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME...TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO COOL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH UPPER 30S HIGHLY PROBABLE AT THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX
OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS
SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER
28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL
RECORDED IN 1919.

SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC...
AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE
LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR
LATITUDE YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 4-8 KTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
-VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 250043
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
843 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED  BY THE
MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF.

CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD
CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING
CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP
TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS
LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE
FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH
PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP
OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE
THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SAT MORNING...CIRRUS COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AND SKC WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT N-NW WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...REMAINING AOB 8 KT.
COULD SEE A MORE S-SW WIND AT KCRE/KMYR AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 AM FRIDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF. AHEAD OF THIS
SFC TROF...W-NW WINDS MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KT. THIS SFC TROF
PASSAGE TO OCCUR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT WILL YIELD NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP
TO 15 KT LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED VERY WELL BY GUIDANCE
...ESPECIALLY WITH WAVEWATCH3 DURING THE PAST 24+ HRS. PARTICULARLY
THE 1-2+ FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10+ SECOND PERIODS.
THIS WAS DEFINITELY FELT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SURF
BREAKS WERE OBSERVED AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PRODUCED A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK FOR BEACHES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 250033
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
833 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED  BY THE
MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY
THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF.

CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD
CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING
CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP
TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL
APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS
LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF
PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE
FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS
PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH
PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP
OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE
THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SAT MORNING...CIRRUS COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AND SKC WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT N-NW WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...REMAINING AOB 8 KT.
COULD SEE A MORE S-SW WIND AT KCRE/KMYR AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 242322
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH
PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP
OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE
THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY SAT MORNING...CIRRUS COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH AND SKC WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT N-NW WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...REMAINING AOB 8 KT.
COULD SEE A MORE S-SW WIND AT KCRE/KMYR AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR








000
FXUS62 KRAH 242314
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY... DPVA
ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE CONFINED
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED BY RAPID
COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY ON THE
GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GENERALLY 40-45. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX
OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS
SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER
28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL
RECORDED IN 1919.

SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC...
AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE
LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR
LATITUDE YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 4-8 KTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
-VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 242200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF 15000-20000 FT CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES WHERE A
LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH BASES 15,000-20,000 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 3
TO 5 FT SEAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT AND BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4
FT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JME
NEAR TERM...CGG/JME
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...CGG/JME/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 241911 CCA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MAY CONTINUE TO BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 3-5 FEET WILL START THE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT
HAS BEEN BRINGING TIGHTER GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
FLOW WILL BE WEAK WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH THE HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE SOUTH...TURNING THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DRY
COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL














000
FXUS62 KRAH 241902
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY... DPVA
ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE CONFINED
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED BY RAPID
COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY ON THE
GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GENERALLY 40-45. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX
OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS
SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER
28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL
RECORDED IN 1919.

SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC...
AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE
LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR
LATITUDE YET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM
CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 241849 CCA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MAY CONTINUE TO BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 3-5 FEET WILL START THE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT
HAS BEEN BRINGING TIGHTER GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
FLOW WILL BE WEAK WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH THE HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE SOUTH...TURNING THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DRY
COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ150-     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL











000
FXUS62 KMHX 241846
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1229 PM FRI...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT
MIDDAY WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIR MASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1232 PM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS...10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
RUN TO EXPIRATION IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OR SEAS TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL WATERS AS
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT.

WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RUN 15 TO 20
KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DRY
COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KILM 241832
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL
MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON
THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK
SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST
OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH
PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP
OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE
THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS
IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE
IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE LIGHT AND DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN...THUS VRB05KT
IS INDICATED IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH PASSES. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
TERMINALS. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY ATTM TO SUPPORT FOG OVERNIGHT
DESPITE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AFTER SUNRISE
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF
THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2
FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 241800
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR
40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE LIGHT AND DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN...THUS VRB05KT
IS INDICATED IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH PASSES. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
TERMINALS. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY ATTM TO SUPPORT FOG OVERNIGHT
DESPITE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AFTER SUNRISE
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/SRP






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241635
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1235 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1229 PM FRI...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT
MIDDAY WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1232 PM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS...10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
RUN TO EXPIRATION IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OR SEAS TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL WATERS AS
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT.

WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RUN 15 TO 20
KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG








000
FXUS62 KRAH 241635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY...
DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED
BY RAPID COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY
ON THE GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM
CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241439
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1039 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY...
DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED
BY RAPID COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY
ON THE GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM
CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241439
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1039 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY...
DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED
BY RAPID COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY
ON THE GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM
CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 241350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM FRIDAY...LARGE MID/UPPER LOW PERSISTS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
CURRENT AIR-MASS IS MOISTURE STARVED...THUS OTHER THAN SOME PASSING
CLOUDS ALOFT IT/S MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...A VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND AT TIMES ONLY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE
CLOUD COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD.
EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED FORCING WITH THIS
RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS
AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LGT
NORTHERLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND LGT/VRBL AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THE ENTIRE
VALID PERIOD. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS EVNG/OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH PASSES AS WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM FRIDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT...PRIMARILY FROM LONG PERIOD SWELLS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2
TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY DUE TO
SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241333
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 925 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY.
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SOUNDINGS AND SEEN STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTH ON SATELLITE PICTURES. PARTIAL SUN AND WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV...THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 932 AM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. TIGHT
GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUIDLING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY WHEN THE LOOSENING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WIND AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RUN 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG











000
FXUS62 KMHX 241138
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AREA FROM W TODAY...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS AREA WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SHRT WV FROM W-NW. AFTER A COOL
START...LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM UPR 60S OBX TO
LOW 70S INLAND EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV...THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW WELL TO NE AND HIGH TO
W. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES AWA FROM AREA.

LOCAL NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH SEAS...AND KEPT PREVIOUS FCST
WHICH IS SLIGHTL HIGHER THAN WW3. HEGHTS TO AROUND 6 FT WILL PERSIST
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO THIS
AFTN...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG








000
FXUS62 KILM 241131
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...A VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND AT TIMES ONLY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE
CLOUD COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD.
EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED FORCING WITH THIS
RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS
AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LGT
NORTHERLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND LGT/VRBL AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THE ENTIRE
VALID PERIOD. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS EVNG/OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH PASSES AS WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2
TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY DUE TO
SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KRAH 241128
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND ON OUR WEATHER IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC... LEAVING A VERY WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS SEPARATING TWO WEAK RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SW TODAY. ALOFT... THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN TO MS/AL AND A STRONG
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR CHICAGO WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AS THESE FEATURES TRACK ESE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILKY
INSOLATION... PUSHING TEMPS UP TO MAXES OF 70-73... CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING FORECAST THICKNESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT... THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART...
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT MAINLY NORTH WINDS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER W TX AND LA BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NE TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. LOWS TONIGHT 39-45... ON THE LOW END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT
AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT
PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR
CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING...
AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO
OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR
LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 241038
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...A VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND AT TIMES ONLY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE
CLOUD COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD.
EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED FORCING WITH THIS
RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS
AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY FOG
FORMATION. EXPECT MORE CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
N-NW AOB 5 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING VRBL THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM
AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2
TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY DUE TO
SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/RJD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 240903
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
447 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AREA FROM W TODAY...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS AREA WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SHRT WV FROM W-NW. AFTER A COOL
START...LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM UPR 60S OBX TO
LOW 70S INLAND EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV. LIGHT NW WINDS TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW WELL TO NE AND HIGH TO
W. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES AWA FROM AREA.

LOCAL NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH SEAS...AND KEPT PREVIOUS FCST
WHICH IS SLIGHTL HIGHER THAN WW3. HEGHTS TO AROUND 6 FT WILL PERSIST
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO THIS
AFTN...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG











000
FXUS62 KMHX 240847
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
447 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AREA FROM W TODAY...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS AREA WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SHRT WV FROM W-NW. AFTER A COOL
START...LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM UPR 60S OBX TO
LOW 70S INLAND EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV. LIGHT NW WINDS TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW WELL TO NE AND HIGH TO
W. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES AWA FROM AREA.

LOCAL NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH SEAS...AND KEPT PREVIOUS FCST
WHICH IS SLIGHTL HIGHER THAN WW3. HEGHTS TO AROUND 6 FT WILL PERSIST
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO THIS
AFTN...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 240758
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT
TRENDS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW LOCATIONS. REST OF FCST ON TRACK
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AT SFC BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATE AHEAD OF SHRT WV.

PREV DISC...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV. LIGHT NW WINDS TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY....NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM THU...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIF THIS EVENING HOWEVER
ALL GDNCE SHOWS SPEEDS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS NRN AND CNTRL WTRS
OVERNIGHT. BACKSWELL FROM DEPARTING LOW WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
N OF HAT INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH DURING FRI
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240719
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND ON OUR WEATHER IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC... LEAVING A VERY WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS SEPARATING TWO WEAK RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SW TODAY. ALOFT... THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN TO MS/AL AND A STRONG
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR CHICAGO WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AS THESE FEATURES TRACK ESE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILKY
INSOLATION... PUSHING TEMPS UP TO MAXES OF 70-73... CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING FORECAST THICKNESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT... THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART...
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT MAINLY NORTH WINDS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER W TX AND LA BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NE TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. LOWS TONIGHT 39-45... ON THE LOW END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT
AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT
PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR
CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING...
AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO
OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR
LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 240707
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL APPROACH
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND AT
TIMES ONLY VERY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE CLOUD
COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY... ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED
FORCING WITH THIS RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE UPPER LEVELS AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL
MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE
SAME CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S
WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY FOG
FORMATION. EXPECT MORE CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
N-NW AOB 5 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING VRBL THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM
AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP
SEAS ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 2 TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY
DUE TO SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/RJD







000
FXUS62 KRAH 240644
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND ON OUR WEATHER IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC... LEAVING A VERY WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS SEPARATING TWO WEAK RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SW TODAY. ALOFT... THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN TO MS/AL AND A STRONG
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR CHICAGO WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AS THESE FEATURES TRACK ESE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILKY
INSOLATION... PUSHING TEMPS UP TO MAXES OF 70-73... CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING FORECAST THICKNESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT... THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART...
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT MAINLY NORTH WINDS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER W TX AND LA BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NE TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. LOWS TONIGHT 39-45... ON THE LOW END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE
ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS
THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF
TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT
AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT
PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR
CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING...
AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO
OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR
LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




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