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000
FXUS62 KILM 031214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
814 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND TODAY. BACK-SWELL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS AND BEACHES THRU TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY...ITS CENTER WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...MAY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W MID-LEVEL TROFS MOVING THROUGH
IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...BELOW 700MB...
WHEN EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND/OR TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE
UPPER FEATURES PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS
SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MVFR DUE TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH AREAS
OF FOG CREATING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES. ANTICIPATE THIS TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO AND PREVAIL AS VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DO ANTICIPATE FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT
COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT
WINDS OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID
EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10
KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEGRADED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS/BEACHES OFF/OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND
HENCE THE 1 FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL
SEA BREEZE MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 031214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
814 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND TODAY. BACK-SWELL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS AND BEACHES THRU TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY...ITS CENTER WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...MAY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W MID-LEVEL TROFS MOVING THROUGH
IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...BELOW 700MB...
WHEN EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND/OR TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE
UPPER FEATURES PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS
SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MVFR DUE TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH AREAS
OF FOG CREATING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES. ANTICIPATE THIS TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO AND PREVAIL AS VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DO ANTICIPATE FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT
COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT
WINDS OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID
EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10
KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEGRADED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS/BEACHES OFF/OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND
HENCE THE 1 FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL
SEA BREEZE MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 031214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
814 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND TODAY. BACK-SWELL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS AND BEACHES THRU TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY...ITS CENTER WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...MAY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W MID-LEVEL TROFS MOVING THROUGH
IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...BELOW 700MB...
WHEN EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND/OR TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE
UPPER FEATURES PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS
SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MVFR DUE TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH AREAS
OF FOG CREATING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES. ANTICIPATE THIS TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO AND PREVAIL AS VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DO ANTICIPATE FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT
COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT
WINDS OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID
EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10
KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEGRADED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS/BEACHES OFF/OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND
HENCE THE 1 FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL
SEA BREEZE MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 031214
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
814 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND TODAY. BACK-SWELL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS AND BEACHES THRU TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY...ITS CENTER WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...MAY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W MID-LEVEL TROFS MOVING THROUGH
IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...BELOW 700MB...
WHEN EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND/OR TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE
UPPER FEATURES PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS
SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MVFR DUE TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH AREAS
OF FOG CREATING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES. ANTICIPATE THIS TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO AND PREVAIL AS VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. DO ANTICIPATE FEW/SCT CU TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR/IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT
COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT
WINDS OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID
EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10
KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEGRADED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS/BEACHES OFF/OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND
HENCE THE 1 FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL
SEA BREEZE MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 031113
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
713 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK THEN DRIFT
ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. ALSO MAY SEE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START...THEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM BUT DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS
MON NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S BEACHES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIC OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
DIURNAL VARIATION. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE
STILL INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. 03/00Z
NCEP SPAGHETTI`S INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF LOW POSITIONS ON
FRIDAY...WITH ECM ENS MEAN ALSO INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF LOW. DETERMINISTIC ECM/CMC INDICATE THE LOW
APPROACHING THE NC COAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LINGERING OFF
THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLIES WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP FCST THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WHATEVER
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF
ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
COAST WOULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG WILL LIFT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AGAIN GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOWERING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT SHUD
BE LESS PREVALENT UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND LIGHT BNDRY LAYER MIXING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FOR NOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 031113
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
713 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK THEN DRIFT
ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. ALSO MAY SEE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START...THEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM BUT DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS
MON NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S BEACHES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIC OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
DIURNAL VARIATION. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE
STILL INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. 03/00Z
NCEP SPAGHETTI`S INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF LOW POSITIONS ON
FRIDAY...WITH ECM ENS MEAN ALSO INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF LOW. DETERMINISTIC ECM/CMC INDICATE THE LOW
APPROACHING THE NC COAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LINGERING OFF
THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLIES WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP FCST THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WHATEVER
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF
ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
COAST WOULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG WILL LIFT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AGAIN GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND LOWERING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT SHUD
BE LESS PREVALENT UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD WEAK SHORT
WAVE AND LIGHT BNDRY LAYER MIXING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FOR NOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KRAH 031112
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
712 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIP CHANCES: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RETREATING OFFSHORE HIGH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN
NC...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES: INCREASE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY SHOULD COUNTERACT
SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. HIGH BOTH DAYS 77-
81...COOLEST ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG
A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK
FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN
INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STAY MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
(DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN PRECIP
FREE AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL
THAT MUCH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER
DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS DO BRING THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THUS
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED...LIKELY
TEMPERED SOME (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST) FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 712 AM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...AS THE HIGH RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 031112
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
712 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIP CHANCES: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RETREATING OFFSHORE HIGH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN
NC...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES: INCREASE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY SHOULD COUNTERACT
SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. HIGH BOTH DAYS 77-
81...COOLEST ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG
A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK
FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN
INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STAY MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
(DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN PRECIP
FREE AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL
THAT MUCH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER
DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS DO BRING THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THUS
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED...LIKELY
TEMPERED SOME (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST) FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 712 AM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...AS THE HIGH RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KILM 031020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND TODAY. BACK-SWELL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS AND BEACHES THRU TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY...ITS CENTER WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...MAY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W MID-LEVEL TROFS MOVING THROUGH
IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...BELOW 700MB...
WHEN EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND/OR TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE
UPPER FEATURES PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS
SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAINS RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT
WINDS OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID
EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10
KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEGRADED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS/BEACHES OFF/OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND
HENCE THE 1 FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL
SEA BREEZE MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 031020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND TODAY. BACK-SWELL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS AND BEACHES THRU TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY...ITS CENTER WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...MAY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W MID-LEVEL TROFS MOVING THROUGH
IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...BELOW 700MB...
WHEN EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND/OR TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE
UPPER FEATURES PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS
SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAINS RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT
WINDS OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID
EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10
KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEGRADED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS/BEACHES OFF/OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND
HENCE THE 1 FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL
SEA BREEZE MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 031020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND TODAY. BACK-SWELL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS AND BEACHES THRU TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY...ITS CENTER WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...MAY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W MID-LEVEL TROFS MOVING THROUGH
IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...BELOW 700MB...
WHEN EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND/OR TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE
UPPER FEATURES PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS
SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAINS RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT
WINDS OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID
EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10
KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEGRADED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS/BEACHES OFF/OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND
HENCE THE 1 FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL
SEA BREEZE MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 031020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND TODAY. BACK-SWELL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS AND BEACHES THRU TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY...ITS CENTER WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...MAY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W MID-LEVEL TROFS MOVING THROUGH
IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...BELOW 700MB...
WHEN EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND/OR TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE
UPPER FEATURES PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NW ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS
SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAINS RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE
OVERHEAD TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT
WINDS OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID
EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10
KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEGRADED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS/BEACHES OFF/OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND
HENCE THE 1 FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL
SEA BREEZE MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 030841
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
441 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W UPPER TROFS MOVING THROUGH IT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...IE. BELOW 700MB WHEN
EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...IN THAT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN
CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE UPPER FEATURES PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE
SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAINS RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE
SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT WINDS OR LESS.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF
THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY
HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND
DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL
LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10 KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEPLETED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS OFF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND HENCE THE 1
FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 030841
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
441 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W UPPER TROFS MOVING THROUGH IT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...IE. BELOW 700MB WHEN
EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...IN THAT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN
CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE UPPER FEATURES PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE
SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAINS RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BASICALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
TODAY...AND JUST EAST OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE
SFC PG WILL BECOME QUITE RELAXED...YIELDING 10 KT WINDS OR LESS.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF
THE HIGHS CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WILL LIKELY
HAVE A DECENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...AND PROGRESS INLAND
DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY TO MID EVENING. WINDS NEARSHORE WILL
LIKELY BECOME ESE-SSE AT 10 KT...POSSIBLY 10 TO 15 KT AT THE
HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT. BACK-SWELL FROM THE STACKED
LOW WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA WATERS WILL HAVE AN ENE 2 TO 3
FOOT 9-11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY
WILL BE DEPLETED AS IT PUSHES ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS PRIOR TO
AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS OFF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND HENCE THE 1
FOOT LOWER SEAS FORECAST. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
MAY PARTIALLY AFFECT THE INTEGRITY OF THIS SWELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 030825
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W UPPER TROFS MOVING THROUGH IT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...IE. BELOW 700MB WHEN
EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...IN THAT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN
CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE UPPER FEATURES PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE
SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 030825
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W UPPER TROFS MOVING THROUGH IT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...IE. BELOW 700MB WHEN
EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...IN THAT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN
CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE UPPER FEATURES PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE
SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 030825
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
425 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...SYNOPTICALLY...I WILL CALL IT A DIRTY UPPER
RIDGE AFFECTING THE FA THIS PERIOD. MEANING...ITS NOT ALL THAT
AMPLIFIED AND YOU HAVE WEAK S/W UPPER TROFS MOVING THROUGH IT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS EXISTS...IE. BELOW 700MB WHEN
EITHER LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...IN THAT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN
CU/SC/AC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THESE UPPER FEATURES PUSH
ACROSS THE FA. THE 1ST ONE IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE
SE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO PCPN EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS AS SEEN WITH VARIOUS PROGGED
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK 80 WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 60S...A DECENT
SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND FOR A GOOD
WAYS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
ESPECIALLY WITH SFC MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE E-SE FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS...WITH
THE THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WINDS LIKELY WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 030744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 030744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 030744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 030744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 030744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 030744
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
344 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SURFACE
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WHILE ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE RESISTANCE FROM
THE REMAINS OF A WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THIS WILL
BE OVERPOWERED. AS FAR AS LOCAL WEATHER GOES THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS ALONG THE COAST RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST WILL MAINTAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SOME NEAR SHORE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH 2
FT SEAS ON MON TO 2 TO 3 FT TUE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL RETREAT ON WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH.
THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW MEANS THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ALTHOUGH
THE DIRECTION REMAINS A QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHEAST WED AND REMAINING NORTHEAST THU. GRADIENT SHOULD
START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE INCREASE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE A LOT. WILL SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING LATE BUT
STILL HAVE SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEAST FETCH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT WED MORNING
TO 3 TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK THEN DRIFT
ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START...THEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM BUT DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS
MON NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S BEACHES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIC OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
DIURNAL VARIATION. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE
STILL INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. 03/00Z
NCEP SPAGHETTI`S INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF LOW POSITIONS ON
FRIDAY...WITH ECM ENS MEAN ALSO INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF LOW. DETERMINISTIC ECM/CMC INDICATE THE LOW
APPROACHING THE NC COAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LINGERING OFF
THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLIES WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP FCST THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WHATEVER
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF
ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
COAST WOULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FOR NOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK THEN DRIFT
ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START...THEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM BUT DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS
MON NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S BEACHES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIC OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
DIURNAL VARIATION. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE
STILL INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. 03/00Z
NCEP SPAGHETTI`S INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF LOW POSITIONS ON
FRIDAY...WITH ECM ENS MEAN ALSO INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF LOW. DETERMINISTIC ECM/CMC INDICATE THE LOW
APPROACHING THE NC COAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LINGERING OFF
THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLIES WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP FCST THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WHATEVER
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF
ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
COAST WOULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FOR NOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK THEN DRIFT
ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START...THEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM BUT DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS
MON NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S BEACHES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIC OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
DIURNAL VARIATION. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE
STILL INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. 03/00Z
NCEP SPAGHETTI`S INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF LOW POSITIONS ON
FRIDAY...WITH ECM ENS MEAN ALSO INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF LOW. DETERMINISTIC ECM/CMC INDICATE THE LOW
APPROACHING THE NC COAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LINGERING OFF
THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLIES WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP FCST THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WHATEVER
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF
ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
COAST WOULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FOR NOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK THEN DRIFT
ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START...THEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM BUT DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS
MON NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S BEACHES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIC OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
DIURNAL VARIATION. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE
STILL INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. 03/00Z
NCEP SPAGHETTI`S INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF LOW POSITIONS ON
FRIDAY...WITH ECM ENS MEAN ALSO INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF LOW. DETERMINISTIC ECM/CMC INDICATE THE LOW
APPROACHING THE NC COAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LINGERING OFF
THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLIES WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP FCST THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WHATEVER
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF
ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
COAST WOULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FOR NOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK THEN DRIFT
ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START...THEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES
MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM BUT DRY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS
MON NIGHT ON THE COOL SIDE...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO UPR 50S BEACHES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIC OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S BEACHES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
DIURNAL VARIATION. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE
STILL INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. 03/00Z
NCEP SPAGHETTI`S INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF LOW POSITIONS ON
FRIDAY...WITH ECM ENS MEAN ALSO INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF LOW. DETERMINISTIC ECM/CMC INDICATE THE LOW
APPROACHING THE NC COAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW LINGERING OFF
THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLIES WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP FCST THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. WHATEVER
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF
ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
COAST WOULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FT FOR NOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIP CHANCES: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RETREATING OFFSHORE HIGH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN
NC...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES: INCREASE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY SHOULD COUNTERACT
SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. HIGH BOTH DAYS 77-
81...COOLEST ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG
A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK
FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN
INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STAY MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
(DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN PRECIP
FREE AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL
THAT MUCH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER
DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS DO BRING THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THUS
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED...LIKELY
TEMPERED SOME (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST) FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...
GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD TO KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRECIP CHANCES: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RETREATING OFFSHORE HIGH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN
NC...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES: INCREASE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY SHOULD COUNTERACT
SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. HIGH BOTH DAYS 77-
81...COOLEST ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG
A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK
FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN
INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STAY MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
(DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN PRECIP
FREE AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN
THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL
THAT MUCH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER
DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF
ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS DO BRING THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THUS
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED...LIKELY
TEMPERED SOME (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST) FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...
GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD TO KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KILM 030656 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 030656 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KILM 030656 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 030656 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED TO INCLUDE LLWS.
AS OF 07Z...VAD WIND PROFILE AT 88D COASTAL RADARS AT
MHX...LTX...CLX...ALL INDICATE 220-240 WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...AT
1K AND 2K FT. WITH BASICALLY CALM WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL TAFS TO INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THRU 12-13Z.

PREVIOUS........................................................
AS OF 06Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030627
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
227 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BTC
MARINE...JME/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030627
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
227 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BTC
MARINE...JME/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030627
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
227 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BTC
MARINE...JME/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030627
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
227 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT ERRATICALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY UNDER
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...OR EVEN COOLER WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS OVER COLD
SOUND/OCEAN WATER TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE CALM/LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WONT BE AS COOL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED AMID BNDRY LAYER TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. EXPECT LOWS
LARGELY IN THE 50-55F RANGE BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS AND A BIT MILDER NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LIGHT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELL 5-7 FT OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BLO 6 FT EXPECTED
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2
TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BTC
MARINE...JME/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030528
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS, RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED, ESPECIALLY OBX WHERE TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S AND CUD SEE A RECORD LOW
AT HSE (41F - 1966). ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
EXPECTED AS A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SFC RIDGE OVER THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ELEVATED SEAS 5-8 FT CONTINUE
NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SW WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY AOB 10KT WITH LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...BTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...BTC/JME
MARINE...BTC/JME/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030528
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS, RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED, ESPECIALLY OBX WHERE TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S AND CUD SEE A RECORD LOW
AT HSE (41F - 1966). ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
EXPECTED AS A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SFC RIDGE OVER THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ELEVATED SEAS 5-8 FT CONTINUE
NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SW WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY AOB 10KT WITH LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...BTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...BTC/JME
MARINE...BTC/JME/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030528
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS, RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED, ESPECIALLY OBX WHERE TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S AND CUD SEE A RECORD LOW
AT HSE (41F - 1966). ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
EXPECTED AS A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SFC RIDGE OVER THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ELEVATED SEAS 5-8 FT CONTINUE
NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SW WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY AOB 10KT WITH LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...BTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...BTC/JME
MARINE...BTC/JME/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030528
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
128 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS, RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED, ESPECIALLY OBX WHERE TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S AND CUD SEE A RECORD LOW
AT HSE (41F - 1966). ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
EXPECTED AS A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
PATCHY, SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SFC RIDGE OVER THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER ELEVATED SEAS 5-8 FT CONTINUE
NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SW WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY AOB 10KT WITH LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...BTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...BTC/JME
MARINE...BTC/JME/LEP



000
FXUS62 KILM 030524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
124 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 030524
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
124 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...DYNAMICS FROM A CHANNELED VORT IN THE MID LEVELS AND
AVBL MOISTURE FROM THE SFC THRU 7H...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SCT
TO BKN DECK OF AC CLOUDS AT 8K THRU 10K FT FOR SEVERAL PRE- DAWN
SUN HRS. OTHERWISE...BY AND AFTER SUNRISE A SKC SKY WILL DOMINATE.
THE TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AC PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN...AND
WITH AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CALM WINDS...PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AFFECT OUR LOCAL TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT WORSE CASE
SCENARIO FOR TEMPO IR CONDITIONS FROM FOG FOR THE CRE AND POSSIBLY
MYR TERMINALS.

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS ITS
CENTER MOVES OFF THE NC COAST TODAY THRU TONIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS...
RESULTING IN A ESE-SSE WIND TRAJECTORY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC
PG REMAIN RELAXED TO MODEST AT BEST AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY. COULD SEE A DECENT PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE INLAND GIVEN THE 10 KT WINDS OR LESS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...IE. BELOW 700MB. FEW/SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU REMAINS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRE-DAWN MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 030521
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT COUPLED
WITH A MINOR S/W  CREATED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE S/W DEPARTING THE REGION...BULK OF CLOUDINESS
DISSIPATED NY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...POCKETS OF FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-3 MILES
WILL OCCUR..MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE
DEWPOINT SPREADS AT MID EVENING WERE LESS THAN 5 MILES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TO
AROUND 50 ON THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...
GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD TO KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030521
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT COUPLED
WITH A MINOR S/W  CREATED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE S/W DEPARTING THE REGION...BULK OF CLOUDINESS
DISSIPATED NY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...POCKETS OF FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-3 MILES
WILL OCCUR..MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE
DEWPOINT SPREADS AT MID EVENING WERE LESS THAN 5 MILES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TO
AROUND 50 ON THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...
GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD TO KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030521
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT COUPLED
WITH A MINOR S/W  CREATED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE S/W DEPARTING THE REGION...BULK OF CLOUDINESS
DISSIPATED NY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...POCKETS OF FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-3 MILES
WILL OCCUR..MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE
DEWPOINT SPREADS AT MID EVENING WERE LESS THAN 5 MILES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TO
AROUND 50 ON THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...
GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD TO KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030521
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT COUPLED
WITH A MINOR S/W  CREATED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE S/W DEPARTING THE REGION...BULK OF CLOUDINESS
DISSIPATED NY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...POCKETS OF FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-3 MILES
WILL OCCUR..MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE
DEWPOINT SPREADS AT MID EVENING WERE LESS THAN 5 MILES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TO
AROUND 50 ON THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 122 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...
GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD TO KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030218
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT COUPLED
WITH A MINOR S/W  CREATED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE S/W DEPARTING THE REGION...BULK OF CLOUDINESS
DISSIPATED NY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...POCKETS OF FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-3 MILES
WILL OCCUR..MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE
DEWPOINT SPREADS AT MID EVENING WERE LESS THAN 5 MILES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TO
AROUND 50 ON THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT... TO NEAR CALM TOWARD MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY... GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD
TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030218
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT COUPLED
WITH A MINOR S/W  CREATED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE S/W DEPARTING THE REGION...BULK OF CLOUDINESS
DISSIPATED NY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...POCKETS OF FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-3 MILES
WILL OCCUR..MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE
DEWPOINT SPREADS AT MID EVENING WERE LESS THAN 5 MILES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TO
AROUND 50 ON THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT... TO NEAR CALM TOWARD MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY... GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD
TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 030218
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT COUPLED
WITH A MINOR S/W  CREATED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE S/W DEPARTING THE REGION...BULK OF CLOUDINESS
DISSIPATED NY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...POCKETS OF FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-3 MILES
WILL OCCUR..MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE
DEWPOINT SPREADS AT MID EVENING WERE LESS THAN 5 MILES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TO
AROUND 50 ON THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT... TO NEAR CALM TOWARD MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY... GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD
TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KILM 030217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KILM 030217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 030217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KILM 030217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KILM 030217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KILM 030217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KMHX 030216
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1016 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISH AND SO TOO HAVE
WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. HATTERAS
HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 48 DEGREES AND MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
MORE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. INLAND...EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 40S. GIVEN SUCH CALM WINDS AND GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES TO SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID/LOWER 40S IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS INLAND. FEEL ACROSS THE OBX...LOWS WILL OCCUR
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW BY THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN MORNING...REDUCING VSBYS BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE. LATEST OBS
SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...GENERALLY
N/NE...5-10KT...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY STRONGER AROUND 15 KT ACROSS
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS 5-8FT CONTINUE NORTH OF
OCRACOKE...SOUTH OF OCRACOKE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 3-5FT. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. EXTENDED ENDING TIME
OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
WINDS SUN AOB 10KT WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KRAH 022343
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT... TO NEAR CALM TOWARD MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY... GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD
TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 022343
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT... TO NEAR CALM TOWARD MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY... GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD
TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 022343
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
743 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT... TO NEAR CALM TOWARD MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY... GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD
TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KILM 022314
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
714 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KILM 022314
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
714 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 022314
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
714 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KILM 022314
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
714 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH STEEP BUT CAPPED
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A HEALTHY DOSE
OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID IN
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE SURFACE
WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE INSHORE
WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM
PROBABLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:10 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LONGER
PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS THAT ARE EMANATING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KMHX 022308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS..ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN MORNING...REDUCING VSBYS BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY N/NE...5-15KT...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY STRONGER
15-20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS 5-9FT
CONTINUE NORTH OF OCRACOKE...SOUTH OF OCRACOKE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO 3-5FT SO ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. EXTENDED ENDING TIME
OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
WINDS SUN AOB 10KT WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA



000
FXUS62 KMHX 022308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS..ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN MORNING...REDUCING VSBYS BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY N/NE...5-15KT...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY STRONGER
15-20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS 5-9FT
CONTINUE NORTH OF OCRACOKE...SOUTH OF OCRACOKE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO 3-5FT SO ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. EXTENDED ENDING TIME
OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
WINDS SUN AOB 10KT WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 022308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS..ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN MORNING...REDUCING VSBYS BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY N/NE...5-15KT...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY STRONGER
15-20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS 5-9FT
CONTINUE NORTH OF OCRACOKE...SOUTH OF OCRACOKE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO 3-5FT SO ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. EXTENDED ENDING TIME
OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
WINDS SUN AOB 10KT WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA



000
FXUS62 KMHX 022308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS..ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN MORNING...REDUCING VSBYS BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM SAT...LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY N/NE...5-15KT...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY STRONGER
15-20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS 5-9FT
CONTINUE NORTH OF OCRACOKE...SOUTH OF OCRACOKE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO 3-5FT SO ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. EXTENDED ENDING TIME
OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
WINDS SUN AOB 10KT WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA




000
FXUS62 KILM 022221 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 022221 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 022221 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 022221 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 022221 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 022221 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UNSTABLE CU WILL DEPART THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS THERE IS SOME DRY AIR JUST
ABOUT THE SURFACE. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS IT
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KILM 022051 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SPARES CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 022051 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SPARES CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 022051 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SPARES CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 022051 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET LOW
IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND SPIN OFF
THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT WILL RAMP POP
UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE LOW REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A VERY MOIST REGION
NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED ADVECTION
SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT FROM INHERITED
DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SPARES CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 021954
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARBON AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET
LOW IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND
SPIN OFF THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT
WILL RAMP POP UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE
LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A
VERY MOIST REGION NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED ADVECTION SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A
BIT FROM INHERITED DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF
UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SPARES CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 021954
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY INFLUX COUPLED WITH
STEEP BUT CAPPED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAY SUNSHINE HAS LED TO A
HEALTHY DOSE OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD AID
IN GRADUALLY DISSOLVING THE CUMULUS THROUGH EVENING. OFFSHORE
SURFACE WIND HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED ALL THE WAY TO THE
INSHORE WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME FLAT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR...LEADING TO A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUMP UP DEWPOINTS AND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE...AND PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG SEEM PROBABLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

VORTICITY CENTER PRESENTLY DROPPING SE OVER EASTERN KY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z-12Z BRINGING A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...SURROUNDED OTHERWISE BY A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
FIRST LIGHT AROUND 8-9Z/4-5AM...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START BEFORE A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SUN
INTO MONDAY. VERY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALLOW A STRONG SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THE LAND HEATS UP AND OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOLER.

HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE MID LEVELS AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS IN THE NW-W FLOW. THE FIRST ONE WILL COME OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE SECOND ONE REACHES THE MOUNTAINS SUN NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COAST SUNNIER MON AFTN BUT
INLAND WILL SEE MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECT DEEP DRY
COLUMN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW H70 WITH SOME AFTN CU AND A
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD AID IN SOME CU WHICH
SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80
DURING THE AFTN AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT. COOLER OCEAN TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT A
SUB-TROPICAL OR HYBRID-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY IMPACT THE
LOCAL WEATHER LATE-WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TOWARDS
13C...WHICH COMBINES WITH THE HIGH THICKNESSES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
80S THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION TO THIS HOWEVER. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CARBON AND LIFT NORTH WHILE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM, AND A HYBRID TROPICAL/ET
LOW IS POSSIBLE MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN SIT AND
SPIN OFF THE COAST IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE IT REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST...BUT
WILL RAMP POP UPWARD THU/FRI ALONG THE COAST WHERE...EVEN IF THE
LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE...LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH FROM A
VERY MOIST REGION NEAR THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED ADVECTION SHOWERS. WILL ALSO CUT TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A
BIT FROM INHERITED DUE TO SHOWER CHANCES AND CONTINUED FLOW OFF
UPPER-60S WATER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SPARES CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...AND WIND-WAVE AND CHOP WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LONGER PERIOD WAVES OF 2-3 FEET EVERY 12-13 SECONDS
THAT ARE EMANATING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR INLETS AND THE ICW
CORRIDOR INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE EXTENDING WAY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE LIGHT N-NE AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT ON SHORE RETURN
FLOW...SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
OVERALL WILL KEEP PREVAILING WINDS LIGHT BUT WILL PRODUCE A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTN ENHANCING THE NEAR SHORE
WINDS AND PRODUCING WIND CHOP...PUSHING ON SHORE WINDS UP CLOSE
TO 15 KT. A LINGERING LONGER PERIOD NE BACKSWELL FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WINDWAVES TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FT SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM MARINE/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFTING
NORTH BEFORE STALLING EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY...BEFORE GETTING DISPLACED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE UP TO OFF THE SC COAST WED/THU. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A LONG PERIOD
OF EASTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY BECOMING NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KTS EACH DAY...BUT MAY INCREASE ON
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH THE RISING WIND
SPEEDS WILL DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-3 FT TUESDAY...TO 4-7 FT LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC/SGL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021921
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES
ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA/JME
MARINE...HSA/JME



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021921
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES
ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA/JME
MARINE...HSA/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021921
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES
ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA/JME
MARINE...HSA/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021921
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES
ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA/JME
MARINE...HSA/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021921
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
BAHAMAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY AROUND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDER
OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN GET PICKED AND MOVED
OUT TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHILE A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST WOULD EXACERBATE
THESE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES FROM EVOLVING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL
RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
EXTENDED ENDING TIME OF ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES
ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 315 PM SAT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA/JME
MARINE...HSA/JME




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KILM 021736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE MINUTES ONGOING BUT
SOME CUMULUS NOW POPPING ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND POINTS NORTHWARD
WHILE UPSTREAM CUMULUS APPEAR POISED TO ADVECT INTO THE SE NC
INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AS SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY AFTER A NIPPY START.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND FREEZING LEVEL AT AN
ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS
BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
SOUTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND
THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD... DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY
MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 021736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE MINUTES ONGOING BUT
SOME CUMULUS NOW POPPING ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND POINTS NORTHWARD
WHILE UPSTREAM CUMULUS APPEAR POISED TO ADVECT INTO THE SE NC
INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AS SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY AFTER A NIPPY START.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND FREEZING LEVEL AT AN
ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS
BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
SOUTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND
THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD... DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY
MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 021736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE MINUTES ONGOING BUT
SOME CUMULUS NOW POPPING ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND POINTS NORTHWARD
WHILE UPSTREAM CUMULUS APPEAR POISED TO ADVECT INTO THE SE NC
INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AS SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY AFTER A NIPPY START.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND FREEZING LEVEL AT AN
ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS
BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
SOUTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND
THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD... DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY
MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 021736
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE MINUTES ONGOING BUT
SOME CUMULUS NOW POPPING ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND POINTS NORTHWARD
WHILE UPSTREAM CUMULUS APPEAR POISED TO ADVECT INTO THE SE NC
INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AS SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY AFTER A NIPPY START.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND FREEZING LEVEL AT AN
ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS
BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY FOG WILL DISPERSE AFTER
DAYBREAK...GIVING WAY TO VFR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
SOUTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND
THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD... DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY
MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE
WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR
LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING.  EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST
EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN
AREAS.  WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN.  WILL JUST INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...NEW SET OF ZONES OUT SHORTLY. ALLOWED SMALL CRAFT
TO EXPIRE ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...NEW SET OF ZONES OUT SHORTLY. ALLOWED SMALL CRAFT
TO EXPIRE ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...NEW SET OF ZONES OUT SHORTLY. ALLOWED SMALL CRAFT
TO EXPIRE ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...NEW SET OF ZONES OUT SHORTLY. ALLOWED SMALL CRAFT
TO EXPIRE ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021651
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM SATURDAY...

THE LAST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAILING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST IS DROPPING SSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.  IT`S EARLY AND POOR TIMING DIURNALLY...ALONG WITH STRONGLY
CAPPED AND DRY RAOBS FROM KGSO/KMHX (PW DOWN NEAR HALF AN
INCH)...SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL USE DRY ADIABATIC MIXING FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN DEEP MIXING THROUGH 850MB...WHICH YIELDS 73-76 NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON NEWEST
GUIDANCE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021651
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM SATURDAY...

THE LAST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAILING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST IS DROPPING SSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.  IT`S EARLY AND POOR TIMING DIURNALLY...ALONG WITH STRONGLY
CAPPED AND DRY RAOBS FROM KGSO/KMHX (PW DOWN NEAR HALF AN
INCH)...SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL USE DRY ADIABATIC MIXING FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN DEEP MIXING THROUGH 850MB...WHICH YIELDS 73-76 NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON NEWEST
GUIDANCE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY...

SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE
VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY.  THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE
EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KILM 021635
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1235 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE MINUTES ONGOING BUT
SOME CUMULUS NOW POPPING ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND POINTS NORTHWARD
WHILE UPSTREAM CUMULUS APPEAR POISED TO ADVECT INTO THE SE NC
INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AS SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY AFTER A NIPPY START.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND FREEZING LEVEL AT AN
ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS
BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
SOUTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND
THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD... DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY
MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 021635
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1235 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE MINUTES ONGOING BUT
SOME CUMULUS NOW POPPING ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND POINTS NORTHWARD
WHILE UPSTREAM CUMULUS APPEAR POISED TO ADVECT INTO THE SE NC
INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AS SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY AFTER A NIPPY START.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND FREEZING LEVEL AT AN
ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS
BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
SOUTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND
THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD... DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY
MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021507
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM SATURDAY...

THE LAST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAILING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST IS DROPPING SSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.  IT`S EARLY AND POOR TIMING DIURNALLY...ALONG WITH STRONGLY
CAPPED AND DRY RAOBS FROM KGSO/KMHX (PW DOWN NEAR HALF AN
INCH)...SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL USE DRY ADIABATIC MIXING FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN DEEP MIXING THROUGH 850MB...WHICH YIELDS 73-76 NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON NEWEST
GUIDANCE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021507
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM SATURDAY...

THE LAST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAILING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST IS DROPPING SSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.  IT`S EARLY AND POOR TIMING DIURNALLY...ALONG WITH STRONGLY
CAPPED AND DRY RAOBS FROM KGSO/KMHX (PW DOWN NEAR HALF AN
INCH)...SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...WILL USE DRY ADIABATIC MIXING FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN DEEP MIXING THROUGH 850MB...WHICH YIELDS 73-76 NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON NEWEST
GUIDANCE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN 4-5K FT STRATOCU DECK
THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THOUGH
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN 4-5K FT STRATOCU DECK
THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THOUGH
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN 4-5K FT STRATOCU DECK
THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THOUGH
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN 4-5K FT STRATOCU DECK
THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THOUGH
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN 4-5K FT STRATOCU DECK
THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THOUGH
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN 4-5K FT STRATOCU DECK
THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THOUGH
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 AM SAT...GENERAL TREND TODAY WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC




000
FXUS62 KILM 021334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
934 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM SATURDAY...SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY
AFTER A NIPPY START. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL
PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND
FREEZING LEVEL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR
ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DCH/III




000
FXUS62 KILM 021334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
934 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM SATURDAY...SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY
AFTER A NIPPY START. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL
PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND
FREEZING LEVEL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR
ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DCH/III



000
FXUS62 KILM 021334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
934 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM SATURDAY...SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY
AFTER A NIPPY START. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL
PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND
FREEZING LEVEL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR
ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DCH/III



000
FXUS62 KILM 021334
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
934 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MAINTAIN SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM SATURDAY...SPARKLING FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY UNDERWAY
AFTER A NIPPY START. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MAY SOLAR ANGLE WILL
PROMOTE COOKED-UP FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN THE LCL AND
FREEZING LEVEL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 5.5-6.5 KFT. RECENT WATER VAPOR
ANIMATIONS SHOW THIS BUMP UP IN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS PLAUSIBLE.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY HOWEVER STILL REMAINS ON TAP.

AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
MODERATE NW SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT NE-E
WIND WITH A FAINT SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WIND LIKELY AS MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEEDS INSHORE SEA SFC TEMPERATURES.

DRYISH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TONIGHT DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WILL
TRAVERSE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FANFARE...BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-20 THOUSAND FEET PASSING IN FRONT OF THE
WAXING MOON WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DAMP GROUND MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO PATCHES AND BANKS OF FOG INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...DCH/III




000
FXUS62 KILM 021136
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
736 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SATURDAY...GOOD NEWS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
WEAKLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST
WILL FINALLY GET KICKED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS WX MODELS CONFIRMING THIS.
SFC RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...ACCOMPANIED BY NW WINDS
ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. DECENT DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700 MB...WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
OVERALL...WILL LIKELY ADVERTISE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A WEAK CHANNELED S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AVBL
BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE
SCATTERED HIGH SC OR LOW AC TO OCCUR. AND THUS AT WORSE
CASE...PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION. SFC CONDITIONS UNDER
ANY CLEAR SKIES THAT OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF
PATCHY FOG.

OVERALL..USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE MAX/MIN TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 021136
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
736 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SATURDAY...GOOD NEWS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
WEAKLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST
WILL FINALLY GET KICKED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS WX MODELS CONFIRMING THIS.
SFC RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...ACCOMPANIED BY NW WINDS
ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. DECENT DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700 MB...WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
OVERALL...WILL LIKELY ADVERTISE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A WEAK CHANNELED S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AVBL
BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE
SCATTERED HIGH SC OR LOW AC TO OCCUR. AND THUS AT WORSE
CASE...PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION. SFC CONDITIONS UNDER
ANY CLEAR SKIES THAT OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF
PATCHY FOG.

OVERALL..USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE MAX/MIN TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL



000
FXUS62 KILM 021136
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
736 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SATURDAY...GOOD NEWS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
WEAKLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST
WILL FINALLY GET KICKED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS WX MODELS CONFIRMING THIS.
SFC RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...ACCOMPANIED BY NW WINDS
ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. DECENT DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700 MB...WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
OVERALL...WILL LIKELY ADVERTISE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A WEAK CHANNELED S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AVBL
BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE
SCATTERED HIGH SC OR LOW AC TO OCCUR. AND THUS AT WORSE
CASE...PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION. SFC CONDITIONS UNDER
ANY CLEAR SKIES THAT OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF
PATCHY FOG.

OVERALL..USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE MAX/MIN TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY INCREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CREATING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING FEW/SCT IN COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021130
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE(CURRENTLY OVER WV)
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z. WHILE DIURNAL IS NOT COMPLETELY
FAVORABLE... ASSOCIATED DPVA MAY COINCIDE JUST ENOUGH WITH PEAK
HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND RIGHT AROUND TYPICAL EARLY MAY
STANDARDS. AS SUCH...SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL SUPPORT A RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021130
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE(CURRENTLY OVER WV)
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z. WHILE DIURNAL IS NOT COMPLETELY
FAVORABLE... ASSOCIATED DPVA MAY COINCIDE JUST ENOUGH WITH PEAK
HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND RIGHT AROUND TYPICAL EARLY MAY
STANDARDS. AS SUCH...SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL SUPPORT A RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021130
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE(CURRENTLY OVER WV)
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z. WHILE DIURNAL IS NOT COMPLETELY
FAVORABLE... ASSOCIATED DPVA MAY COINCIDE JUST ENOUGH WITH PEAK
HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND RIGHT AROUND TYPICAL EARLY MAY
STANDARDS. AS SUCH...SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL SUPPORT A RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...COASTAL LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS FOR THE OBX
THIS MORNING. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 40S MOST AREAS ON THEIR
WAY TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPR 40S BEACHES.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY FG HAS DEVELOPED AT KPGV BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 11-12Z. MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN
4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS THOUGH WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...HAVE EXPIRED LAST REMAINING GALE WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH SCA. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE ALLIGATOR RIVER AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND FROM SCA AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW THRESHOLD
HERE. GENERAL TREND TODOAY WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...COASTAL LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS FOR THE OBX
THIS MORNING. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 40S MOST AREAS ON THEIR
WAY TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPR 40S BEACHES.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY FG HAS DEVELOPED AT KPGV BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 11-12Z. MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN
4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS THOUGH WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...HAVE EXPIRED LAST REMAINING GALE WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH SCA. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE ALLIGATOR RIVER AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND FROM SCA AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW THRESHOLD
HERE. GENERAL TREND TODOAY WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...COASTAL LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS FOR THE OBX
THIS MORNING. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 40S MOST AREAS ON THEIR
WAY TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPR 40S BEACHES.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY FG HAS DEVELOPED AT KPGV BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 11-12Z. MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN
4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS THOUGH WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...HAVE EXPIRED LAST REMAINING GALE WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH SCA. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE ALLIGATOR RIVER AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND FROM SCA AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW THRESHOLD
HERE. GENERAL TREND TODOAY WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 021100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...COASTAL LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS FOR THE OBX
THIS MORNING. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 40S MOST AREAS ON THEIR
WAY TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPR 40S BEACHES.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
MAY MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS
INCOMING WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER
RIDGE. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL
IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD
BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC
COAST COULD EXACERBATE COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY FG HAS DEVELOPED AT KPGV BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 11-12Z. MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN
4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS THOUGH WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...HAVE EXPIRED LAST REMAINING GALE WARNING AND
REPLACED WITH SCA. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE ALLIGATOR RIVER AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND FROM SCA AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW THRESHOLD
HERE. GENERAL TREND TODOAY WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS.
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KILM 021026
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SATURDAY...GOOD NEWS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
WEAKLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST
...WILL FINALLY GET KICKED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS WX MODELS
CONFIRMING THIS. SFC RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...ACCOMPANIED BY
NW WINDS ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD.
DECENT DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700
MB...WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. OVERALL...WILL LIKELY ADVERTISE A MOSTLY SUNNY
OR PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A WEAK CHANNELED S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AVBL
BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE
SCATTERED HIGH SC OR LOW AC TO OCCUR. AND THUS AT WORSE
CASE...PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION. SFC CONDITIONS UNDER
ANY CLEAR SKIES THAT OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF
PATCHY FOG.

OVERALL..USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE MAX/MIN TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 021026
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM SATURDAY...GOOD NEWS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
WEAKLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST
...WILL FINALLY GET KICKED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS WX MODELS
CONFIRMING THIS. SFC RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...ACCOMPANIED BY
NW WINDS ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD.
DECENT DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700
MB...WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. OVERALL...WILL LIKELY ADVERTISE A MOSTLY SUNNY
OR PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A WEAK CHANNELED S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AVBL
BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE
SCATTERED HIGH SC OR LOW AC TO OCCUR. AND THUS AT WORSE
CASE...PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITION. SFC CONDITIONS UNDER
ANY CLEAR SKIES THAT OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF
PATCHY FOG.

OVERALL..USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE MAX/MIN TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...A SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS ONLY THRU MIDDAY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. IF ADJACENT LAND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH...A WEAK SEA
BREEZE COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...
DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT BY TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND AVERAGE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 020801
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
401 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...GOOD NEWS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
WEAKLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NC
COAST WILL FINALLY GET KICKED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS WX MODELS
CONFIRMING THIS. SFC RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...ACCOMPANIED
BY NW WINDS ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD.
DECENT DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ABOVE 700 MB...WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
OVERALL...WILL LIKELY ADVERTISE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A WEAK CHANNELED S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AVBL
BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SERIES FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SC OR AC TO OCCUR. THUS AT WORSE CASE PROVIDE A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITION. SFC CONDITIONS UNDER ANY CLEAR SKIES THAT
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...LOWERED SCA FOR ALL OF THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...HAVE ISSUED A SCEC FOR THE ILM NC WATERS ONLY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN
OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND
AVERAGE PERIODS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 020801
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
401 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...GOOD NEWS FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
WEAKLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NC
COAST WILL FINALLY GET KICKED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS WX MODELS
CONFIRMING THIS. SFC RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...ACCOMPANIED
BY NW WINDS ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD.
DECENT DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ABOVE 700 MB...WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF THE DAYTIME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
OVERALL...WILL LIKELY ADVERTISE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A WEAK CHANNELED S/W TROF EMBEDDED
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AVBL
BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SERIES FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SC OR AC TO OCCUR. THUS AT WORSE CASE PROVIDE A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITION. SFC CONDITIONS UNDER ANY CLEAR SKIES THAT
OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...LOWERED SCA FOR ALL OF THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...HAVE ISSUED A SCEC FOR THE ILM NC WATERS ONLY.

OVERALL...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SLOWLY RELAXING GRADIENT WILL
YIELD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE NW-N WINDS TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
FURTHER RELAX WITH N TO NE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING PEAKED EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT. WITH NO REAL GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF...AND MAINLY AN
OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES. LOOK FOR 4 TO 5 SECOND
AVERAGE PERIODS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COASTAL LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS FOR THE OBX
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 40S MOST AREAS ON
THEIR WAY TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPR 40S BEACHES.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONCENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY
MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE ULTIMATELY
BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST COULD EXACERBATE
COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS
EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED AND EXPECT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN A 4K FT STRATO
CU DECK IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT
NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES WITH SCA ENDING VARIOUS
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERAL TREND TODOAY WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT SEAS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER NC ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THE BEGINNING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NC COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COASTAL LOW PRES CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY N WINDS FOR THE OBX
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 40S MOST AREAS ON
THEIR WAY TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPR 40S BEACHES.

NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH PLEASANT SPRING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S INLAND WITH 60S
EASTERN AREAS/OBX. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME UPR LEVEL
ENERGY STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH E NC DURING PEAK
INSOLATION. EXPECT MAINLY AN INC IN BKN 4-5K FT STRATO CU DECK...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL 850-700MB MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS VALS A DEGREE OR SO WHICH WOULD PLACE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. A FEW MID 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...02/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. MODEL CONCENSUS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY
MEANDER OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE ULTIMATELY
BEING PICKED AND MOVED OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEKEND AS INCOMING WESTERLY
FLOW GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. WHATEVER THE
EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS WRT TO HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, AND A CLOSER PASS TO THE NC COAST COULD EXACERBATE
COASTAL IMPACTS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE THRU FRIDAY AS
EXPECTED, MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED AND EXPECT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN A 4K FT STRATO
CU DECK IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT
NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 333 AM SAT...HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES WITH SCA ENDING VARIOUS
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. GENERAL TREND TODOAY WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH LINGERING 6+ FOOT SEAS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

WINDS SUNDAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 3 FT LATE AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KILM 020730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A END OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING BERMUDA
WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO THE KY/TN VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FLATTENING
OUT WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WESTERLY. LATE IN THE
PERIOD HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS
DEVELOPING. DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE REGION FREE OF PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND BERMUDA HIGH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
SYSTEM WHICH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EMERGING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID TO LATE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU WITH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. LATE
WEEK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL
HYBRID SYSTEM OR A SEA BREEZE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE HYBRID COULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SILENT POP ALONG
THE NC COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD IS QUITE
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HYBRID SYSTEM AND ITS
STRENGTH/LOCATION.

THE TREND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
AS FAR AS NEXT WEEKS LOW IS CONCERNED. THE SYSTEM ITSELF...A CLOSED
LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MANY RUNS
NOW...BUT THE LOCATION AND TIMING HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT
A FEW DAYS AGO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAD THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OR
BRUSHING THE COAST WED...BUT THEY NOW SHOWING THIS HAPPENING FRI OR
EVEN LATER. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HAS BEEN THE
TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO KEEP THIS FEATURE WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS DEFINITELY
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH OFFSHORE OBS STILL
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON
SUN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...STRETCHING FROM BERMUDA WEST INTO THE
KY/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE DAILY SEA BREEZE MAY
PUSH SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WATERS TUE BUT ON WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW/WAVE EMERGING FROM FROM THE
BAHAMAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION AS
DOES THE STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS FEATURE. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
WED FORECAST IS QUITE LOW SO FOR NOW WILL SHOW WINDS BACKING TO
NORTHEAST WED FROM EAST ON TUE BUT KEEP SPEEDS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE SPEED RANGE...WHICH VARIES FROM 10 KT TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ON EXTENDED PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT TUE BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/DL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020701
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE(CURRENTLY OVER WV)
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z. WHILE DIURNAL IS NOT COMPLETELY
FAVORABLE... ASSOCIATED DPVA MAY COINCIDE JUST ENOUGH WITH PEAK
HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND RIGHT AROUND TYPICAL EARLY MAY
STANDARDS. AS SUCH...SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL SUPPORT A RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA... AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR...MAY SEE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z AS TOP SOIL IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM .

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020701
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE(CURRENTLY OVER WV)
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z. WHILE DIURNAL IS NOT COMPLETELY
FAVORABLE... ASSOCIATED DPVA MAY COINCIDE JUST ENOUGH WITH PEAK
HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND RIGHT AROUND TYPICAL EARLY MAY
STANDARDS. AS SUCH...SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL SUPPORT A RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA... AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR...MAY SEE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z AS TOP SOIL IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM .

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020701
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE(CURRENTLY OVER WV)
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z. WHILE DIURNAL IS NOT COMPLETELY
FAVORABLE... ASSOCIATED DPVA MAY COINCIDE JUST ENOUGH WITH PEAK
HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND RIGHT AROUND TYPICAL EARLY MAY
STANDARDS. AS SUCH...SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL SUPPORT A RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA... AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR...MAY SEE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z AS TOP SOIL IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM .

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020701
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCE(CURRENTLY OVER WV)
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z. WHILE DIURNAL IS NOT COMPLETELY
FAVORABLE... ASSOCIATED DPVA MAY COINCIDE JUST ENOUGH WITH PEAK
HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND RIGHT AROUND TYPICAL EARLY MAY
STANDARDS. AS SUCH...SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL SUPPORT A RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS
REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS
IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST
OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY
TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA... AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR...MAY SEE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z AS TOP SOIL IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM .

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KILM 020553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A END OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DERPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH OFFSHORE OBS STILL
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 020553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A END OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DERPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH OFFSHORE OBS STILL
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 020553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A END OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DERPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH OFFSHORE OBS STILL
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 020553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A END OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DERPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH OFFSHORE OBS STILL
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 020553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A END OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DERPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH OFFSHORE OBS STILL
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KILM 020553
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A END OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA...AND TAKING THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH IT. WINDS MAY
GO CALM ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG...IF SO THAN WOULD BE ONLY LOOKING AT 4-5SM BR
WORSE CASE. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE DERPARTING UPPER LOW.

FOR DAYTIME SAT...DIURNAL CU MAY POP UP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN AWAY FROM THE COAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAKENING GRADIENT TO YIELD INITIALLY NORTHERLY WINDS
5 TO 10 KT. BY EARLY-MID AFTN...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC COAST. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS LIKELY WILL GO CALM EVERYWHERE...MAY TAKE AN EXTRA
HR TO CALM CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH OFFSHORE OBS STILL
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020527
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA OVER. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM FRIDAY...

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z OVER SECTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CURVATURE...LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS TRANSITION ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TOP SOIL NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. WHILE
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING ANY DENSE FOG NOR IS THE LATEST
SREF SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES...HAVE TO
BELIEVE THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY (1-3MILES) IN
THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE THREAT GREATEST IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE
SKIES WILL CLEAR SOONER THAN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN
TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA... AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR...MAY SEE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z AS TOP SOIL IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM .

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/22
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020527
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA OVER. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM FRIDAY...

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z OVER SECTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CURVATURE...LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS TRANSITION ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TOP SOIL NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. WHILE
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING ANY DENSE FOG NOR IS THE LATEST
SREF SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES...HAVE TO
BELIEVE THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY (1-3MILES) IN
THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE THREAT GREATEST IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE
SKIES WILL CLEAR SOONER THAN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN
TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA... AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR...MAY SEE
POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z AS TOP SOIL IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM .

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU
DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE
WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/22
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020500
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AT
BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS AND
WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT SAT
AFTERNOON AND BKN VFR STRATO CU DEVELOPING

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...HAVE ENDED ALL GALES EXCEPT THE CENTRAL WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD/TL
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020500
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AT
BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS AND
WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT SAT
AFTERNOON AND BKN VFR STRATO CU DEVELOPING

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...HAVE ENDED ALL GALES EXCEPT THE CENTRAL WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD/TL
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020500
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AT
BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS AND
WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT SAT
AFTERNOON AND BKN VFR STRATO CU DEVELOPING

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...HAVE ENDED ALL GALES EXCEPT THE CENTRAL WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD/TL
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020500
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AT
BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS AND
WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT SAT
AFTERNOON AND BKN VFR STRATO CU DEVELOPING

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SAT...HAVE ENDED ALL GALES EXCEPT THE CENTRAL WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD/TL
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KILM 020230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A END OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  LOW AS ALL BUT
ENDED...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY
01Z...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED WITH A
ISOLATED CHANCE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND TRACKING EAST
NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH
SCATTERED CU. THE CU MAY FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A CEILING IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH OFFSHORE OBS STILL
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KILM 020230
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A END OF PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  LOW AS ALL BUT
ENDED...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY
01Z...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED WITH A
ISOLATED CHANCE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND TRACKING EAST
NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH
SCATTERED CU. THE CU MAY FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A CEILING IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH OFFSHORE OBS STILL
SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020217
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA OVER. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM FRIDAY...

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z OVER SECTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CURVATURE...LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS TRANSITION ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD PROGRESS SLOOOOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TOP SOIL NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. WHILE
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING ANY DENSE FOG NOR IS THE LATEST
SREF SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES...HAVE TO
BELIEVE THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY (1-3MILES) IN
THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE THREAT GREATEST IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE
SKIES WILL CLEAR SOONER THAN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN
TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR ANY SITE OTHER THAN KRWI TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/22
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020217
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA OVER. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM FRIDAY...

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z OVER SECTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CURVATURE...LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS TRANSITION ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD PROGRESS SLOOOOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TOP SOIL NEARLY
SATURATED AND SFC WINDS BECOME CALM AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR. WHILE
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING ANY DENSE FOG NOR IS THE LATEST
SREF SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES...HAVE TO
BELIEVE THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY (1-3MILES) IN
THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE THREAT GREATEST IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE
SKIES WILL CLEAR SOONER THAN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN
TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR ANY SITE OTHER THAN KRWI TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/22
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TAKES THE AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE LOW HAS INITIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. THESE AREAS
HAVE ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SO FEEL
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AT BEST OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OBX OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS...POPS
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE NOW 7-12FT...AND SOUTH 3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND LATEST RAP DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST...WHILE THE STRONGEST
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY IS NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC.  MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...30-35KT AT 850MB...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAS GIVEN WAY TO SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
THIS AFTERNOON PER RAP ANALYSIS. THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT WERE
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF BETTER FORCING/LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS.  THERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT SHOULD AID SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...MOST NOTABLY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN VA.  THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION REACHING THE
TRIAD AROUND 21Z BUT DWINDLING BEFORE MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AS HEATING...WHAT LITTLE WE HAVE HAD...IS LOST.  WILL TREND POPS
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR 5K FT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY.  A LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT
BUT TO THE WEST SOME PATCHY FOG SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS/DRYING ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
ARE NOT VERY HIGH...SO DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR ANY SITE OTHER THAN KRWI TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND LATEST RAP DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST...WHILE THE STRONGEST
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY IS NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC.  MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...30-35KT AT 850MB...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAS GIVEN WAY TO SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
THIS AFTERNOON PER RAP ANALYSIS. THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT WERE
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF BETTER FORCING/LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS.  THERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT SHOULD AID SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...MOST NOTABLY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN VA.  THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION REACHING THE
TRIAD AROUND 21Z BUT DWINDLING BEFORE MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AS HEATING...WHAT LITTLE WE HAVE HAD...IS LOST.  WILL TREND POPS
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR 5K FT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY.  A LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT
BUT TO THE WEST SOME PATCHY FOG SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS/DRYING ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
ARE NOT VERY HIGH...SO DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR ANY SITE OTHER THAN KRWI TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND LATEST RAP DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST...WHILE THE STRONGEST
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY IS NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC.  MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...30-35KT AT 850MB...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAS GIVEN WAY TO SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
THIS AFTERNOON PER RAP ANALYSIS. THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT WERE
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF BETTER FORCING/LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS.  THERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT SHOULD AID SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...MOST NOTABLY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN VA.  THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION REACHING THE
TRIAD AROUND 21Z BUT DWINDLING BEFORE MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AS HEATING...WHAT LITTLE WE HAVE HAD...IS LOST.  WILL TREND POPS
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR 5K FT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY.  A LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT
BUT TO THE WEST SOME PATCHY FOG SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS/DRYING ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
ARE NOT VERY HIGH...SO DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR ANY SITE OTHER THAN KRWI TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND LATEST RAP DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST...WHILE THE STRONGEST
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY IS NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC.  MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...30-35KT AT 850MB...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAS GIVEN WAY TO SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
THIS AFTERNOON PER RAP ANALYSIS. THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT WERE
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF BETTER FORCING/LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS.  THERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT SHOULD AID SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...MOST NOTABLY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN VA.  THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION REACHING THE
TRIAD AROUND 21Z BUT DWINDLING BEFORE MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AS HEATING...WHAT LITTLE WE HAVE HAD...IS LOST.  WILL TREND POPS
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR 5K FT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY.  A LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT
BUT TO THE WEST SOME PATCHY FOG SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS/DRYING ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
ARE NOT VERY HIGH...SO DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR ANY SITE OTHER THAN KRWI TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND LATEST RAP DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST...WHILE THE STRONGEST
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY IS NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC.  MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...30-35KT AT 850MB...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAS GIVEN WAY TO SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
THIS AFTERNOON PER RAP ANALYSIS. THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT WERE
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF BETTER FORCING/LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS.  THERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT SHOULD AID SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...MOST NOTABLY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN VA.  THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION REACHING THE
TRIAD AROUND 21Z BUT DWINDLING BEFORE MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AS HEATING...WHAT LITTLE WE HAVE HAD...IS LOST.  WILL TREND POPS
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR 5K FT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY.  A LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT
BUT TO THE WEST SOME PATCHY FOG SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS/DRYING ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
ARE NOT VERY HIGH...SO DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR ANY SITE OTHER THAN KRWI TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND LATEST RAP DATA SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST...WHILE THE STRONGEST
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY IS NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC.  MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...30-35KT AT 850MB...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAS GIVEN WAY TO SOME ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
THIS AFTERNOON PER RAP ANALYSIS. THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT WERE
OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF BETTER FORCING/LAPSE RATES...SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS.  THERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT SHOULD AID SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...MOST NOTABLY WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN VA.  THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS CONVECTION REACHING THE
TRIAD AROUND 21Z BUT DWINDLING BEFORE MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AS HEATING...WHAT LITTLE WE HAVE HAD...IS LOST.  WILL TREND POPS
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR 5K FT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY.  A LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT
BUT TO THE WEST SOME PATCHY FOG SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS/DRYING ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
ARE NOT VERY HIGH...SO DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...

ONE LAST RIBBON OF VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AROUND MIDDAY...AND ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SETS
IN.  WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FROM ROUGHLY ROXBORO TO CLINTON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHS 72-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

HIGHS PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES
WILL FULLY CLEAR.  DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...THE AIRMASS ACTUALLY MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AND LOWS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO TONIGHT...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME SPOTS WITH UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND A HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS MON-WED...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUT GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACT
THAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT OUR FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF 80 DEGREE DAYS...WITH HIGHS INCREASING ABOUT A
DEGREE OR SO A DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND...INCREASING
FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS THAT LOW HANGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DIMINISH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR ANY SITE OTHER THAN KRWI TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KILM 012350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE
AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A
END OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AN
UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  LOW AS ALL BUT
ENDED...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY
01Z...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED WITH A
ISOLATED CHANCE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND TRACKING EAST
NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH
SCATTERED CU. THE CU MAY FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A CEILING IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
OFFSHORE OBS STILL SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT. SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 012350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE
AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A
END OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AN
UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  LOW AS ALL BUT
ENDED...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY
01Z...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED WITH A
ISOLATED CHANCE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND TRACKING EAST
NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH
SCATTERED CU. THE CU MAY FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A CEILING IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
OFFSHORE OBS STILL SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT. SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KILM 012350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE
AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A
END OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AN
UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  LOW AS ALL BUT
ENDED...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY
01Z...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED WITH A
ISOLATED CHANCE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND TRACKING EAST
NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH
SCATTERED CU. THE CU MAY FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A CEILING IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
OFFSHORE OBS STILL SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT. SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/RGZ




000
FXUS62 KILM 012350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RETURNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE
AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS COME TO AN END. THIS HAS LED TO A
END OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE DROPPED REMAINING POPS AS A RESULT
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AN
UNSEASONALLY STRONG COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEP DRY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A LITTLE
LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NW-N FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BUT SOME PERIODS OF STRATO CU AND TEMPS REACHING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL. DEEP DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSION WILL LIMIT
CU DEPTH....BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY CREATE A FEW PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 5-7 KT FT WITH A
BIT MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY AFTN. WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHWR WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE SAT AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST.

THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. WITH SFC HIGH
NEARLY OVERHEAD THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTN WINDS. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE 50 TO
55 MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INFLUENCE THE
INITIAL DECLINE IN TEMPS SAT EVENING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUN
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS KEEPING TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S SATURDAY NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE REGIME FOR THE EXTENDED AS LARGE
500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH IT WILL ALSO SQUELCH MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES...OR
EVEN DIURNAL CLOUDINESS. OF COURSE...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENT LIFT TO
OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT PLAN TO KEEP POP SILENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED WATCHING IS A HYBRID
LOW PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING THIS INTO THE CAPE FEAR COAST FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP IT JUST OFF TO THE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST AND EXPECT ANY IMPACTS TO REMAIN OVER THE WATER.
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL RISE SLOWLY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...80S DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER THANKS TO PROLONGED
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  LOW AS ALL BUT
ENDED...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY
01Z...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED WITH A
ISOLATED CHANCE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND TRACKING EAST
NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH
SCATTERED CU. THE CU MAY FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A CEILING IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
OFFSHORE OBS STILL SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT. SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR THE NIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH LATEST UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEPENING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CATCHES UP WITH
IT. BOTH FEATURES SHOULD MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET SHOULD BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6 FT SEAS IN VERY SHORT PERIODS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR...WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. NW WINDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT EARLY WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15
KTS BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISHING MORE AS HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE PREVAILING
WINDS WILL EXIST. BY SUN NIGHT A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
CENTER OF HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE. AFTER A FEW LINGERING 5 FTERS IN
THE OUTER WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME VERY BENIGN DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT BY SAT AFTN AND DOWN TO 1 TO 3 FT MOST PLACES BY SUN.
GREATEST SEAS WILL BE IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFF SHORE FLOW BUT
SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE AREA
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE NC TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BEING ERODED WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH NORTH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MONDAY...WIND WILL BE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS LATE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1-2 FT EARLY MONDAY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RISING TO 5 FT
LATE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/RGZ



000
FXUS62 KMHX 012308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH
GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE NOW 7-11FT...AND SOUTH
3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MID-DAY SAT...WITH BREAKING WAVES 7-9FT. MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AND
BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY WITH THE CURRENT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WHICH IS PEAKING RIGHT NOW. MINOR WATER LEVEL
RISES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA
COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 012308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH
GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE NOW 7-11FT...AND SOUTH
3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MID-DAY SAT...WITH BREAKING WAVES 7-9FT. MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AND
BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY WITH THE CURRENT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WHICH IS PEAKING RIGHT NOW. MINOR WATER LEVEL
RISES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA
COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 012308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH
GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE NOW 7-11FT...AND SOUTH
3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MID-DAY SAT...WITH BREAKING WAVES 7-9FT. MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AND
BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY WITH THE CURRENT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WHICH IS PEAKING RIGHT NOW. MINOR WATER LEVEL
RISES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA
COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 012308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH
GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE NOW 7-11FT...AND SOUTH
3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.

ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TO
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS
FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT LATE
AND CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR NOW.

&&

COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MID-DAY SAT...WITH BREAKING WAVES 7-9FT. MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AND
BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY WITH THE CURRENT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WHICH IS PEAKING RIGHT NOW. MINOR WATER LEVEL
RISES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD/HSA
COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 012308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY  WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH MID/UPPER 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO MID WEEK PRODUCING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START OUT NEAR
AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ON SUNDAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 FRI...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG EARLY EACH MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NLY WINDS 20-30KT WITH
GUSTS 35-40KT. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING...WITH SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE NOW 7-11FT...AND SOUTH
3-5FT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
CONTINUE