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000
FXUS62 KRAH 241843
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
243 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VEERING AROUND FROM SE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL YIELD WARM MOIST AIR
ADVECTING INTO SW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...INCREASING TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS AND LOW STRATUS COVERAGE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW AND WEST...AS THE
WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER...THUS EXPECT THE LOWEST TEMPS...MID 40S...IN THE NE AND
HIGHEST...LOW TO MID 50S...IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY: THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY OF 500-1500 J/KG AND  SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS
FRIDAY AFT/EVE. THE SPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SHOULD SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO
SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...WITH SRH VALUES IN THE 100-300 M2/S2
RANGE WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION COMMENCES AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE
NW. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
NW...UPPER 40S...AND HIGHEST WHERE THE FROPA AND CLEARING HAPPEN
LATER...MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...

FORECAST PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THE PERIOD.

GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING SOME GREAT WEATHER ON SATURDAY
WITH A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MIX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 78 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND 82
IN THE SOUTHWEST. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH DURING MID AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LATEST SET OF GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE ON SUNDAY
CWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC ALL PUSH THE FRONT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LINGER FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. STILL NOT READY TO FULLY COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO BUT
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS AND THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS ARE NOW FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED BEGINNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. A STRONG SYSTEM/CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK....WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
AFFECTING OUR AREA MOSTLY LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY. DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE WORKED OUT
WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP PRECIP
CHANCES LATE MONDAY... WITH THE BEST TIME FRAME LOOKING TO BE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND TIME OF
YEAR...SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...
ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHEN IS TOUGH TO DETERMINE RIGHT NOW. TEMPS SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT INCREASING LOW STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
LIFR...RANGE FROM THE SW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN TERMINALS...KINT AND KGSO...EARLY.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241834
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
234 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VEERING AROUND FROM NE
TO SE DURING THE DAY...THEN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL YIELD WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO SW PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NC...INCREASING TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND LOW STRATUS.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW AND WEST...AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND CLOUD COVER... THUS EXPECT THE LOWEST
TEMPS...MID 40S...IN THE NE AND HIGHEST...LOW TO MID 50S...IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: EARLY MORNING SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS...AND
STRATUS...BOTH INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WHERE IT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...AMIDST AN OTHERWISE WARMING AND BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON FRI. THE COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE PRIMARY LOW REFERENCED IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL START THE DAY WELL TO OUR WEST/WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS; AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A SECONDARY WEAK TRIPLE POINT
SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM
WESTERN NC TO NORTH-CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM (GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS)...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
CROSS CENTRAL NC MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AMIDST THE
AFOREMENTIONED STEEP MID LAPSE RATES AND 40-45 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS/SRH IN
THE 100-300 M2/S2 RANGE (STRONGEST NMM)...WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW
TORNADO PROBABILITY - PARTICULARLY INVOF ANY REMNANT DIABATICALLY-
INDUCED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL NC FROM EARLIER DAY
CLOUDS/CONVECTION...AND IN VA INVOF THE PASSING TRIPLE POINT LOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON LOW PREDICTABILITY
LOCATION/EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL USHER A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NC FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...

FORECAST PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THE PERIOD.

GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING SOME GREAT WEATHER ON SATURDAY
WITH A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MIX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 78 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND 82
IN THE SOUTHWEST. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH DURING MID AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LATEST SET OF GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE ON SUNDAY
CWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC ALL PUSH THE FRONT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LINGER FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. STILL NOT READY TO FULLY COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO BUT
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS AND THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS ARE NOW FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED BEGINNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. A STRONG SYSTEM/CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK....WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
AFFECTING OUR AREA MOSTLY LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY. DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE WORKED OUT
WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP PRECIP
CHANCES LATE MONDAY... WITH THE BEST TIME FRAME LOOKING TO BE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND TIME OF
YEAR...SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...
ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHEN IS TOUGH TO DETERMINE RIGHT NOW. TEMPS SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT INCREASING LOW STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
LIFR...RANGE FROM THE SW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN TERMINALS...KINT AND KGSO...EARLY.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC/MWS
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...KC



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000
FXUS62 KMHX 241748
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
148 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BECOMING MVFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST AS
THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL APPROX START AROUND 9Z...BRING CEILING CONDITION TO MVFR
APPROX 13Z THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S/SW
10-15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. AS RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...DROPPED SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY
WITH UPDATE. DIAMOND BUOY NOT AVBL SINCE 9 AM BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING AND EXPECT SEAS BELOW 6 FT REST OF AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME





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000
FXUS62 KILM 241726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN STRONG UPPER LOW FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...FULL-BORE SUNSHINE-MINUTES RACKING UP ON
THE SOLAR COUNTER TODAY. THIN SHREDS OF CIRRUS MAY SAIL OVERHEAD
LATER IN THE DAY BUT NO IMPACTS OFF-SETTING A SUNNY FORECAST WITH
MAXIMUMS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE. COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY HOLD IN THE
UPPER 60SS DUE TO CHILLY INSHORE SSTS...AND THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATING OFFSHORE WILL GUIDE WINDS ONSHORE INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCAL MARINE-INFLUENCED COOLING.

FAIR CONDITIONS INTO EVENING AND SETTLING OF THE MARINE AIR UNDER
CLEAR SKIES COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN PROTECTED POCKETS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS WELL AS
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE REALIZED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND
AN A-TYPICAL HOURLY TEMP CURVE APPEARS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE COULD TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 9Z...AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM GGE TO MYR TO SUT TO COASTAL NEW HANOVER AND
PENDER COUNTIES INTO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO...IT THEN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT. THE NAM IS HINTING A SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

FRIDAY...MODERATELY POTENT VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...LOW CERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOW TOPPED
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE...JUST UNLIKELY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRECIPITATION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE
TO SE...COMING AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10
KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4
FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WTIH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...DROPPED SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY
WITH UPDATE. DIAMOND BUOY NOT AVBL SINCE 9 AM BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING AND EXPECT SEAS BELOW 6 FT REST OF AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WTIH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...DROPPED SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY
WITH UPDATE. DIAMOND BUOY NOT AVBL SINCE 9 AM BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING AND EXPECT SEAS BELOW 6 FT REST OF AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WTIH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...DROPPED SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY
WITH UPDATE. DIAMOND BUOY NOT AVBL SINCE 9 AM BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING AND EXPECT SEAS BELOW 6 FT REST OF AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WTIH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...DROPPED SCA FOR NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY
WITH UPDATE. DIAMOND BUOY NOT AVBL SINCE 9 AM BUT WINDS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING AND EXPECT SEAS BELOW 6 FT REST OF AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KRAH 241717
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
117 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VEERING AROUND FROM NE
TO SE DURING THE DAY...THEN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL YIELD WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO SW PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NC...INCREASING TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND LOW STRATUS.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW AND WEST...AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND CLOUD COVER... THUS EXPECT THE LOWEST
TEMPS...MID 40S...IN THE NE AND HIGHEST...LOW TO MID 50S...IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: EARLY MORNING SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS...AND
STRATUS...BOTH INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WHERE IT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...AMIDST AN OTHERWISE WARMING AND BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON FRI. THE COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE PRIMARY LOW REFERENCED IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL START THE DAY WELL TO OUR WEST/WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS; AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A SECONDARY WEAK TRIPLE POINT
SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM
WESTERN NC TO NORTH-CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM (GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS)...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
CROSS CENTRAL NC MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AMIDST THE
AFOREMENTIONED STEEP MID LAPSE RATES AND 40-45 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS/SRH IN
THE 100-300 M2/S2 RANGE (STRONGEST NMM)...WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW
TORNADO PROBABILITY - PARTICULARLY INVOF ANY REMNANT DIABATICALLY-
INDUCED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL NC FROM EARLIER DAY
CLOUDS/CONVECTION...AND IN VA INVOF THE PASSING TRIPLE POINT LOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON LOW PREDICTABILITY
LOCATION/EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL USHER A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NC FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  -MWS

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MILD SURFACE HIGH
SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LOWER MS VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. A COMPACT UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN S/W RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...THINK THIS WIL CURTAIL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
70S. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK..IF NOT LONGER OWING TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARDS GREENLAND THAT WILL HAMPER THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY
TOO HIGH TO ELABORATE ON FORECAST SPECIFICS/DETAILS...GIVEN SUCH A
POTENT SYSTEM WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPRING
CONVECTIVE SEASON OF LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY...CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE TO
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROSPECTS OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT INCREASING LOW STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
LIFR...RANGE FROM THE SW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN TERMINALS...KINT AND KGSO...EARLY.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS/CBL
LONG TERM... CBL
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KILM 241516
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1116 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN STRONG UPPER LOW FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 AM THURSDAY...FULL-BORE SUNSHINE-MINUTES RACKING UP ON
THE SOLAR COUNTER TODAY. THIN SHREDS OF CIRRUS MAY SAIL OVERHEAD
LATER IN THE DAY BUT NO IMPACTS OFF-SETTING A SUNNY FORECAST WITH
MAXIMUMS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE. COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY HOLD IN THE
UPPER 60SS DUE TO CHILLY INSHORE SSTS...AND THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATING OFFSHORE WILL GUIDE WINDS ONSHORE INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCAL MARINE-INFLUENCED COOLING.

FAIR CONDITIONS INTO EVENING AND SETTLING OF THE MARINE AIR UNDER
CLEAR SKIES COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN PROTECTED POCKETS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS WELL AS
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE REALIZED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND
AN A-TYPICAL HOURLY TEMP CURVE APPEARS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE COULD TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 9Z...AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM GGE TO MYR TO SUT TO COASTAL NEW HANOVER AND
PENDER COUNTIES INTO DAYBREAK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 15Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 18
HOURS OR SO...IT THEN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULTANT.
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH A POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. A
CIRRUS CEILING WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE
TO SE...COMING AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10
KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4
FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241450
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1050 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...HIGH AND DRY FCST ON TRACK AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY
N-NE WINDS STILL PRODUCING SCA CONDITIONS OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS...THUS WILL CONTINUE SCA INTO AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241450
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1050 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...HIGH AND DRY FCST ON TRACK AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY
N-NE WINDS STILL PRODUCING SCA CONDITIONS OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS...THUS WILL CONTINUE SCA INTO AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241436
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1034 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VEERING AROUND FROM NE
TO SE DURING THE DAY...THEN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL YIELD WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO SW PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NC...INCREASING TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND LOW STRATUS.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW AND WEST...AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND CLOUD COVER... THUS EXPECT THE LOWEST
TEMPS...MID 40S...IN THE NE AND HIGHEST...LOW TO MID 50S...IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: EARLY MORNING SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS...AND
STRATUS...BOTH INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WHERE IT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...AMIDST AN OTHERWISE WARMING AND BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON FRI. THE COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE PRIMARY LOW REFERENCED IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL START THE DAY WELL TO OUR WEST/WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS; AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A SECONDARY WEAK TRIPLE POINT
SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM
WESTERN NC TO NORTH-CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM (GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS)...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
CROSS CENTRAL NC MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AMIDST THE
AFOREMENTIONED STEEP MID LAPSE RATES AND 40-45 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS/SRH IN
THE 100-300 M2/S2 RANGE (STRONGEST NMM)...WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW
TORNADO PROBABILITY - PARTICULARLY INVOF ANY REMNANT DIABATICALLY-
INDUCED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL NC FROM EARLIER DAY
CLOUDS/CONVECTION...AND IN VA INVOF THE PASSING TRIPLE POINT LOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON LOW PREDICTABILITY
LOCATION/EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL USHER A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NC FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  -MWS

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MILD SURFACE HIGH
SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LOWER MS VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. A COMPACT UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN S/W RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...THINK THIS WIL CURTAIL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
70S. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK..IF NOT LONGER OWING TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARDS GREENLAND THAT WILL HAMPER THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY
TOO HIGH TO ELABORATE ON FORECAST SPECIFICS/DETAILS...GIVEN SUCH A
POTENT SYSTEM WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPRING
CONVECTIVE SEASON OF LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY...CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE TO
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROSPECTS OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST THREE
QUARTERS OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH...NNE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS BY MIDDAY...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY...THIS
AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE. PASSING
MID CLOUDS (BETWEEN 10 AND 15 THOUSAND FEET) IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SKIRT THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED APPROACH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR-MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI...LOWEST AND MOST LIKELY
AT TRIAD TERMINALS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND THUNDERSTORMS - ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK..AND WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS/CBL
LONG TERM... CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241434
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1034 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VEERING AROUND FROM NE
TO SE DURING THE DAY...THEN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL YIELD WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO SW PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NC...INCREASING TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND LOW STRATUS.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NW AND WEST...AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND CLOUD COVER... THUS EXPECT THE LOWEST
TEMPS...MID 40S...IN THE NE AND HIGHEST...LOW TO MID 50S...IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: EARLY MORNING SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS...AND
STRATUS...BOTH INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WHERE IT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...AMIDST AN OTHERWISE WARMING AND BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON FRI. THE COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE PRIMARY LOW REFERENCED IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL START THE DAY WELL TO OUR WEST/WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS; AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A SECONDARY WEAK TRIPLE POINT
SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM
WESTERN NC TO NORTH-CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM (GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS)...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
CROSS CENTRAL NC MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AMIDST THE
AFOREMENTIONED STEEP MID LAPSE RATES AND 40-45 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS/SRH IN
THE 100-300 M2/S2 RANGE (STRONGEST NMM)...WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW
TORNADO PROBABILITY - PARTICULARLY INVOF ANY REMNANT DIABATICALLY-
INDUCED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL NC FROM EARLIER DAY
CLOUDS/CONVECTION...AND IN VA INVOF THE PASSING TRIPLE POINT LOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON LOW PREDICTABILITY
LOCATION/EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL USHER A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NC FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  -MWS

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MILD SURFACE HIGH
SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LOWER MS VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. A COMPACT UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN S/W RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...THINK THIS WIL CURTAIL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
70S. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK..IF NOT LONGER OWING TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARDS GREENLAND THAT WILL HAMPER THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY
TOO HIGH TO ELABORATE ON FORECAST SPECIFICS/DETAILS...GIVEN SUCH A
POTENT SYSTEM WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPRING
CONVECTIVE SEASON OF LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY...CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE TO
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROSPECTS OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST THREE
QUARTERS OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH...NNE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS BY MIDDAY...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY...THIS
AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE. PASSING
MID CLOUDS (BETWEEN 10 AND 15 THOUSAND FEET) IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SKIRT THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED APPROACH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR-MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI...LOWEST AND MOST LIKELY
AT TRIAD TERMINALS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND THUNDERSTORMS - ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK..AND WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS/CBL
LONG TERM... CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241146
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

A REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...EVIDENT AS A RADAR FINE LINE ON
KAKQ/KRAX/KMHX BETWEEN 00-06Z...HAD SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. THIS BOUNDARY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A 1021 MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN MI...WHICH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY...AND RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OF WED. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO START...BECOMING MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS A RESULT OF A BAND OF 10-15
THOUSAND FT MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY FORECAST TO
SKIRT IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SOME PASSING THIN CIRRUS OVER THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE AREA-WIDE ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING
AND PROMOTE A DEVELOPING RETURN/SOUTHERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY JUST
ABOVE A STABLE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS...LOWEST AND WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
APT TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AS
MOISTENING AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND INVOF THE BOUNDARY DRIVE
WEAK/SHALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AMIDST A LIFT-INDUCING REGIME OF
LOW LEVEL WAA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH). WIDE RANGING LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AXIS AND PERIODS OF CALM OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: EARLY MORNING SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS...AND
STRATUS...BOTH INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WHERE IT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...AMIDST AN OTHERWISE WARMING AND BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON FRI. THE COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE PRIMARY LOW REFERENCED IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL START THE DAY WELL TO OUR WEST/WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS; AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A SECONDARY WEAK TRIPLE POINT
SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM
WESTERN NC TO NORTH-CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM (GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS)...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
CROSS CENTRAL NC MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AMIDST THE
AFOREMENTIONED STEEP MID LAPSE RATES AND 40-45 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS/SRH IN
THE 100-300 M2/S2 RANGE (STRONGEST NMM)...WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW
TORNADO PROBABILITY - PARTICULARLY INVOF ANY REMNANT DIABATICALLY-
INDUCED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL NC FROM EARLIER DAY
CLOUDS/CONVECTION...AND IN VA INVOF THE PASSING TRIPLE POINT LOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON LOW PREDICTABILITY
LOCATION/EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL USHER A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NC FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  -MWS

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MILD SURFACE HIGH
SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LOWER MS VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. A COMPACT UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN S/W RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...THINK THIS WIL CURTAIL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
70S. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK..IF NOT LONGER OWING TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARDS GREENLAND THAT WILL HAMPER THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY
TOO HIGH TO ELABORATE ON FORECAST SPECIFICS/DETAILS...GIVEN SUCH A
POTENT SYSTEM WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPRING
CONVECTIVE SEASON OF LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY...CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE TO
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROSPECTS OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST THREE
QUARTERS OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH...NNE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS BY MIDDAY...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY...THIS
AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE. PASSING
MID CLOUDS (BETWEEN 10 AND 15 THOUSAND FEET) IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SKIRT THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED APPROACH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR-MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI...LOWEST AND MOST LIKELY
AT TRIAD TERMINALS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND THUNDERSTORMS - ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK..AND WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/CBL
LONG TERM... CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 241053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW
DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. THERE WAS A RATHER LARGE RANGE IN
TEMPS AT SUNRISE...LOWER TO MID 40S WERE MOST COMMON ALONG AND N OF
A LINE FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BEGIN THE DAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH JUST A FEW COOLER POCKETS OF MID 40S. BRIGHT LATE
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE RATHER SHORT ORDER OF THE MORNING CHILL...
BUT WE WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF HIGHS REACHED WED AFTERNOON...AND
THE SHORTFALL WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND
THIS EVE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AS SE TO S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A
LITTLE STRONG FOR FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL MENTION PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS
OR SO...IT THEN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULTANT.
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH A POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. A
CIRRUS CEILING WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43









000
FXUS62 KMHX 241050
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 241050
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KILM 241041
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW
DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. THERE WAS A RATHER LARGE RANGE IN
TEMPS AT SUNRISE...LOWER TO MID 40S WERE MOST COMMON ALONG AND N OF
A LINE FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BEGIN THE DAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH JUST A FEW COOLER POCKETS OF MID 40S. BRIGHT LATE
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE RATHER SHORT ORDER OF THE MORNING CHILL...
BUT WE WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF HIGHS REACHED WED AFTERNOON...AND
THE SHORTFALL WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND
THIS EVE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AS SE TO S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A
LITTLE STRONG FOR FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL MENTION PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT FOG AT
KCRE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE KCRE HAD SOME MVFR/IFR FOG
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE CLOSE...BUT
VARYING RESTRICTIONS HAVE LEAD TO A LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 240823
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. BRIGHT LATE APRIL SUNSHINE WILL GO TO
WORK ON TEMPS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE DAY WELL DOWN IN THE 40S. THE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AS SE TO
S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE STRONG FOR
FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WILL BEGIN MENTIONING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT FOG AT
KCRE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE KCRE HAD SOME MVFR/IFR FOG
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE CLOSE...BUT
VARYING RESTRICTIONS HAVE LEAD TO A LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL













000
FXUS62 KILM 240741
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. BRIGHT LATE APRIL SUNSHINE WILL GO TO
WORK ON TEMPS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE DAY WELL DOWN IN THE 40S. THE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AS SE TO
S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE STRONG FOR
FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WILL BEGIN MENTIONING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT FOG AT
KCRE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE KCRE HAD SOME MVFR/IFR FOG
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE CLOSE...BUT
VARYING RESTRICTIONS HAVE LEAD TO A LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER EAST IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE
WIND-WAVE DOMINATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUILDING TO 3-4 FT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN IN THE
OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NW TO W-SW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY
LATE SUNDAY AND INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10-15
KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES
MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL










000
FXUS62 KMHX 240716
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESAPEAKE LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 240716
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESAPEAKE LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240714
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
314 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

A REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...EVIDENT AS A RADAR FINE LINE ON
KAKQ/KRAX/KMHX BETWEEN 00-06Z...HAD SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. THIS BOUNDARY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A 1021 MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN MI...WHICH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY...AND RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OF WED. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO START...BECOMING MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS A RESULT OF A BAND OF 10-15
THOUSAND FT MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY FORECAST TO
SKIRT IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SOME PASSING THIN CIRRUS OVER THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE AREA-WIDE ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING
AND PROMOTE A DEVELOPING RETURN/SOUTHERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY JUST
ABOVE A STABLE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS...LOWEST AND WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
APT TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AS
MOISTENING AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND INVOF THE BOUNDARY DRIVE
WEAK/SHALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AMIDST A LIFT-INDUCING REGIME OF
LOW LEVEL WAA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH). WIDE RANGING LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AXIS AND PERIODS OF CALM OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: EARLY MORNING SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS...AND
STRATUS...BOTH INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WHERE IT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED...AMIDST AN OTHERWISE WARMING AND BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON FRI. THE COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE PRIMARY LOW REFERENCED IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL START THE DAY WELL TO OUR WEST/WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS; AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A SECONDARY WEAK TRIPLE POINT
SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM
WESTERN NC TO NORTH-CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM (GOOD
THERMODYNAMICS)...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
CROSS CENTRAL NC MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AMIDST THE
AFOREMENTIONED STEEP MID LAPSE RATES AND 40-45 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS/SRH IN
THE 100-300 M2/S2 RANGE (STRONGEST NMM)...WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW
TORNADO PROBABILITY - PARTICULARLY INVOF ANY REMNANT DIABATICALLY-
INDUCED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL NC FROM EARLIER DAY
CLOUDS/CONVECTION...AND IN VA INVOF THE PASSING TRIPLE POINT LOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON LOW PREDICTABILITY
LOCATION/EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING WILL USHER A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NC FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  -MWS

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MILD SURFACE HIGH
SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LOWER MS VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. A COMPACT UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN S/W RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...THINK THIS WIL CURTAIL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
70S. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK..IF NOT LONGER OWING TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARDS GREENLAND THAT WILL HAMPER THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY
TOO HIGH TO ELABORATE ON FORECAST SPECIFICS/DETAILS...GIVEN SUCH A
POTENT SYSTEM WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPRING
CONVECTIVE SEASON OF LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY...CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE TO
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROSPECTS OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...NNE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS BY MIDDAY...
THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY...THIS AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS
EVENING ELSEWHERE. PASSING MID CLOUDS (BETWEEN 10 AND 15 THOUSAND
FEET) IN WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
APPROACH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI...LOWEST
AND MOST LIKELY AT TRIAD TERMINALS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND
THUNDERSTORMS - ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK..AND
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/CBL
LONG TERM... CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240702
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
301 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

A REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...EVIDENT AS A RADAR FINE LINE ON
KAKQ/KRAX/KMHX BETWEEN 00-06Z...HAD SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. THIS BOUNDARY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A 1021 MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN MI...WHICH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY...AND RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OF WED. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO START...BECOMING MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS A RESULT OF A BAND OF 10-15
THOUSAND FT MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY FORECAST TO
SKIRT IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SOME PASSING THIN CIRRUS OVER THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE AREA-WIDE ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING
AND PROMOTE A DEVELOPING RETURN/SOUTHERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY JUST
ABOVE A STABLE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS...LOWEST AND WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
APT TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AS
MOISTENING AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND INVOF THE BOUNDARY DRIVE
WEAK/SHALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AMIDST A LIFT-INDUCING REGIME OF
LOW LEVEL WAA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH). WIDE RANGING LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AXIS AND PERIODS OF CALM OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:
A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY
BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS
MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH
THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...
THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA
WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE
UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MILD SURFACE HIGH
SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LOWER MS VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. A COMPACT UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIVE A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN S/W RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...THINK THIS WIL CURTAIL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
70S. LOWS IN THE 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK..IF NOT LONGER OWING TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARDS GREENLAND THAT WILL HAMPER THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS...WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY
TOO HIGH TO ELABORATE ON FORECAST SPECIFICS/DETAILS...GIVEN SUCH A
POTENT SYSTEM WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPRING
CONVECTIVE SEASON OF LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY...CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE TO
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROSPECTS OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...NNE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS BY MIDDAY...
THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY...THIS AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS
EVENING ELSEWHERE. PASSING MID CLOUDS (BETWEEN 10 AND 15 THOUSAND
FEET) IN WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
APPROACH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI...LOWEST
AND MOST LIKELY AT TRIAD TERMINALS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND
THUNDERSTORMS - ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK..AND
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRD/CBL
LONG TERM... CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240652
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

A REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...EVIDENT AS A RADAR FINE LINE ON
KAKQ/KRAX/KMHX BETWEEN 00-06Z...HAD SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. THIS BOUNDARY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A 1021 MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN MI...WHICH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY...AND RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OF WED. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO START...BECOMING MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AS A RESULT OF A BAND OF 10-15
THOUSAND FT MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY FORECAST TO
SKIRT IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SOME PASSING THIN CIRRUS OVER THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL ARRIVE AREA-WIDE ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING
AND PROMOTE A DEVELOPING RETURN/SOUTHERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY JUST
ABOVE A STABLE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION)...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS...LOWEST AND WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
APT TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AS
MOISTENING AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND INVOF THE BOUNDARY DRIVE
WEAK/SHALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AMIDST A LIFT-INDUCING REGIME OF
LOW LEVEL WAA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH). WIDE RANGING LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AXIS AND PERIODS OF CALM OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...TO LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY
BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS
MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH
THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...
THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA
WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE
UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING OUR PRECIP TO AN END. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. ANOTHER REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...NNE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS BY MIDDAY...
THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY...THIS AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS
EVENING ELSEWHERE. PASSING MID CLOUDS (BETWEEN 10 AND 15 THOUSAND
FEET) IN WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
APPROACH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI...LOWEST
AND MOST LIKELY AT TRIAD TERMINALS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND
THUNDERSTORMS - ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK..AND
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM... KRD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 240648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESY LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 240648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESY LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 240648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESY LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 240648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESY LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KRAH 240558
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
158 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010PM...

TONIGHT...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE CALM CLEAR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER HAVE ALREADY DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH WINDS ABOUT 3KT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
TOWARD THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 40S IN THE URBAN AREAS. THOUGH THE
TEMPS WILL BE COOL...FROST IS UNLIKELY EXCEPT IN VERY ISOLATED AREAS
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

THURSDAY...
A SIMILAR HIGH PRESSURE REGIME SHOULD BE IN PLACE. THUS
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COOLER
TEMPS IN THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO LOWER LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES THAN WERE OBSERVED TODAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR...AND WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO VEER FROM THE ENE IN THE MORNING TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE
DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL S-SW
FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. ALOFT...UPPER WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. THUS...SHOULD SEE INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUD COVERAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DAYBREAK. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MILDER TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SLY WIND. MIN TEMPS MID 40S NE TO LOWER 50S SW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY
BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS
MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH
THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...
THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA
WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE
UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING OUR PRECIP TO AN END. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. ANOTHER REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND RESULT IN A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH...NNE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS BY MIDDAY...
THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY...THIS AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS
EVENING ELSEWHERE. PASSING MID CLOUDS (BETWEEN 10 AND 15 THOUSAND
FEET) IN WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
APPROACH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI...LOWEST
AND MOST LIKELY AT TRIAD TERMINALS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND
THUNDERSTORMS - ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK..AND
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/JET
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM... KRD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 240557
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
156 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE FURTHER REFINED TEMPERATURE CURVE IN
THE GRIDDED DATABASE...THIS TIME DOWNWARD...TO ACCOUNT FOR QUICK
EVENING COOL-DOWN. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE TEXT ZONE PRODUCT
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT A CLEAR AND VERY COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A
UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS.
MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO
ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE
40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE
BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE
LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES
CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT FOG AT
KCRE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE KCRE HAD SOME MVFR/IFR FOG
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE CLOSE...BUT
VARYING RESTRICTIONS HAVE LEAD TO A LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS STILL AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS. NO FURTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY
FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP AND SEA-HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE NORTH WITH
MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE. WEAK SE
SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP. NO TSTMS
OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 240437
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...RADAR IS INDICATING A WEAK FEATURE MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST REGION OF EASTERN NC LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND
INCREASE. NO CLOUDS OR WEATHER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT THE
MODELS ARE TREATING IT AS A SORT OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS AS
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THIS
SURGE IN WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE BRIEF BUT WILL BE STRONGER AND
MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE WATERS. WINDS OVER LAND MAY ACTUALLY
DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH THE
NORMALLY COLDER SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 30S WITH LOWER 40S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC. WITH
FAIRLY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS EXPECTED PER LATEST 00Z MOS
WOULD NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS MODERATE FLOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4-7 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE
EARLY THIS MORNING SO NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL THU AFTN AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RSB/JBM/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/JME
MARINE...RSB/JBM/JME/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...JBM






000
FXUS62 KILM 240212
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1012 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE FURTHER REFINED TEMPERATURE CURVE
IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE...THIS TIME DOWNWARD...TO ACCOUNT FOR
QUICK EVENING COOL-DOWN. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE TO THE TEXT ZONE
PRODUCT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT A CLEAR AND VERY COOL
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A
UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS.
MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO
ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE
40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE
BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE
LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES
CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY LOW LEVELS.
THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AOB 10
KTS...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS STILL AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS. NO FURTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY
FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP AND SEA-HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE NORTH WITH
MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE. WEAK SE
SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP. NO TSTMS
OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK/JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK






000
FXUS62 KRAH 240211
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010PM...

TONIGHT...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE CALM CLEAR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER HAVE ALREADY DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH WINDS ABOUT 3KT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
TOWARD THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 40S IN THE URBAN AREAS. THOUGH THE
TEMPS WILL BE COOL...FROST IS UNLIKELY EXCEPT IN VERY ISOLATED AREAS
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

THURSDAY...
A SIMILAR HIGH PRESSURE REGIME SHOULD BE IN PLACE. THUS
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COOLER
TEMPS IN THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO LOWER LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES THAN WERE OBSERVED TODAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR...AND WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO VEER FROM THE ENE IN THE MORNING TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE
DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL S-SW
FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. ALOFT...UPPER WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. THUS...SHOULD SEE INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUD COVERAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPEMENT OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DAYBREAK. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MILDER TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SLY WIND. MIN TEMPS MID 40S NE TO LOWER 50S SW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY
BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS
MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH
THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...
THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA
WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE
UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING OUR PRECIP TO AN END. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. ANOTHER REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE)... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS... EXPECT WINDS
WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND CONTINUE SO THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LASTING INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT... WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...WSS/JET
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM... KRD
AVIATION...BSD/KC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 240201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED
TEMPS DOWN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS HIT HARD THIS EVENING UNDER
A DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE AND CLEAR SKIES. ALSO ADJUSTED RH VALUES UP
A BIT AS THE DOWN-SLOPPING HAS SUBSIDED GIVEN CALM WINDS. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO FALL WITH RH VALUES
NOT TRULY PLUMMETING UNTIL WINDS PICK UP A BIT LATER TONIGHT. SO HAVE
MODIFIED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF
GDNC FOR LOW TEMPS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. COMPLETE DECOUPLING NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH A VERY
LIGHT NW/N WIND AND SMALL T/TD SPREAD. SO DESPITE FCST LOWS IN THE
UPR 30S FOR SOME INLAND AREAS, WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS
UNLIKELY ALTHO A FEW AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WELL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM
WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY
FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NWLY FLOW
AROUND 5-10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FURTHER OUT IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE 2-4FT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NE/E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY CAA SURGE MOVING DOWN THE NC COAST LATER THIS EVENING
WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL THU AFTN AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RSB/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/BM
MARINE...RSB/JBM/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 240201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED
TEMPS DOWN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS HIT HARD THIS EVENING UNDER
A DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE AND CLEAR SKIES. ALSO ADJUSTED RH VALUES UP
A BIT AS THE DOWN-SLOPPING HAS SUBSIDED GIVEN CALM WINDS. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO FALL WITH RH VALUES
NOT TRULY PLUMMETING UNTIL WINDS PICK UP A BIT LATER TONIGHT. SO HAVE
MODIFIED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF
GDNC FOR LOW TEMPS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. COMPLETE DECOUPLING NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH A VERY
LIGHT NW/N WIND AND SMALL T/TD SPREAD. SO DESPITE FCST LOWS IN THE
UPR 30S FOR SOME INLAND AREAS, WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS
UNLIKELY ALTHO A FEW AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WELL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM
WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY
FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NWLY FLOW
AROUND 5-10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FURTHER OUT IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE 2-4FT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NE/E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY CAA SURGE MOVING DOWN THE NC COAST LATER THIS EVENING
WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL THU AFTN AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RSB/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/BM
MARINE...RSB/JBM/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...JBM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 232356
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
756 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE VA
BORDER...TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE
CRITERIA FOR A FROST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY LOWER THAN THE FORECAST
LOWS...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VEERING AROUND FROM
NE TO SE DURING THE DAY...THEN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP A BIT BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA...SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S NORTH/NORTHEAST TO MID 70S SW. WITH THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MID 40S NE TO LOW
50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY
BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS
MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH
THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...
THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA
WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE
UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING OUR PRECIP TO AN END. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. ANOTHER REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE)... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS... EXPECT WINDS
WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND CONTINUE SO THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LASTING INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT... WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM... KRD
AVIATION...BSD/KC




000
FXUS62 KILM 232348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:45 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN
THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES TO THE TEXT ZONE
PRODUCT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A
UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS.
MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO
ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE
40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE
BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE
LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES
CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY LOW LEVELS.
THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AOB 10
KTS...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:45 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS DOWN TO AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE
WATERS SO HAVE CAPPED THEM ACCORDINGLY IN THE LATEST UPDATE. THAT
IS THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY
FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP AND SEA-HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE NORTH WITH
MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE. WEAK SE
SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP. NO TSTMS
OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK/JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 232324
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
724 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A
COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS. MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR
NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO
BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH
ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY LOW LEVELS.
THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AOB 10
KTS...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE
SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP
AND SEA-HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE
NORTH WITH MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
ADVISORIES EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE.
WEAK SE SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP.
NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 232318
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
718 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC TROF WILL MOVE OFF COAST THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A RENEWED
SURGE OF CAA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF
GDNC FOR LOW TEMPS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. COMPLETE DECOUPLING NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH A VERY
LIGHT NW/N WIND AND SMALL T/TD SPREAD. SO DESPITE FCST LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S FOR SOME INLAND AREAS, WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS
UNLIKELY ALTHO A FEW AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WELL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM
WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY
FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NE/E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MARINE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY CAA SURGE MOVING DOWN
THE NC COAST LATER THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT
INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL THU AFTN
AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/RSB/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 232007
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
407 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE VA
BORDER...TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE
CRITERIA FOR A FROST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY LOWER THAN THE FORECAST
LOWS...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VEERING AROUND FROM
NE TO SE DURING THE DAY...THEN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP A BIT BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA...SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S NORTH/NORTHEAST TO MID 70S SW. WITH THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MID 40S NE TO LOW
50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY
BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS
MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH
THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...
THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA
WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE
UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING OUR PRECIP TO AN END. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. ANOTHER REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG (10-15 KTS) AND GUSTY (20-25 KTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ABATING AFTER SUNSET AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION COMMENCES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THOUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND RAIN
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT 12-18 MPH WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20-25 MPH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 21-27 PERCENT...AND SOMEWHAT LOW FINE FUEL
MOISTURE IN THE 7-8% RANGE...WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ADVERSE FIRE
BEHAVIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN PRE-
SUPPRESSION FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE RH WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THU...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...HOWEVER
THE FINE FUELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN DRIER. THEREFORE...THOSE
INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM... KRD
AVIATION...KC
FIRE WEATHER...KC/HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 231944
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
343 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...SECONDARY TROF/FRONT WILL MOVE OFF COAST THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT SCU OVER NE HALF OF AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF GDNC FOR TEMPS
OVER INLAND AREAS WITH DECOUPLING WINDS EXPECTED LATE. FCST UPR 30S
FOR SRN COASTAL PLAINS AREAS. SOME ISOLATED FROST PSBL BUT NOT
ENOUGH THREAT TO METION IN FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...SECONDARY CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20
KT OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VRBL THU AFTN AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.
&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BM
MARINE...RSB/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231944
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
343 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...SECONDARY TROF/FRONT WILL MOVE OFF COAST THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT SCU OVER NE HALF OF AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF GDNC FOR TEMPS
OVER INLAND AREAS WITH DECOUPLING WINDS EXPECTED LATE. FCST UPR 30S
FOR SRN COASTAL PLAINS AREAS. SOME ISOLATED FROST PSBL BUT NOT
ENOUGH THREAT TO METION IN FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...SECONDARY CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20
KT OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VRBL THU AFTN AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.
&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BM
MARINE...RSB/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM







000
FXUS62 KILM 231939
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A
COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS. MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR
NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO
BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH
ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW
WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE-
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT
AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES.

FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN
FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM
HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING
OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP
WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR
AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN
PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
TODAY WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z...REMAINING AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE
SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP
AND SEA-HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE
NORTH WITH MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
ADVISORIES EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE.
WEAK SE SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP.
NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS
ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE
THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/BJR
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK









000
FXUS62 KRAH 231900 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE VA
BORDER...TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE
CRITERIA FOR A FROST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY LOWER THAN THE FORECAST
LOWS...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VEERING AROUND FROM
NE TO SE DURING THE DAY...THEN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP A BIT BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA...SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S NORTH/NORTHEAST TO MID 70S SW. WITH THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MID 40S NE TO LOW
50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY
BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS
MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT
SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH
THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...
THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA
WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE
UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING OUR PRECIP TO AN END. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. ANOTHER REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG (10-15 KTS) AND GUSTY (20-25 KTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ABATING AFTER SUNSET AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION COMMENCES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THOUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND RAIN
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT 12-18 MPH WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20-25 MPH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 21-27 PERCENT...AND SOMEWHAT LOW FINE FUEL
MOISTURE IN THE 7-8% RANGE...WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ADVERSE FIRE
BEHAVIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN PRE-
SUPPRESSION FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE RH WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THU...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...HOWEVER
THE FINE FUELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN DRIER. THEREFORE...THOSE
INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM... KRD
AVIATION...KC
FIRE WEATHER...KC/HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 231842
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPDATED TO DROP SCA FOR S OF OCRACOKE INLET AND
EXPIRATION OF SCA PAMLICO SOUND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. RIVER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.8 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231842
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPDATED TO DROP SCA FOR S OF OCRACOKE INLET AND
EXPIRATION OF SCA PAMLICO SOUND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. RIVER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.8 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...UPDATED FOR VARIABLE WINDS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT THAT AREA HAS ALLOWED LOCAL WINDS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL PERSIST SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL SECONDARY TROF MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW THROUGHOUT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. RIVER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.8 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 231726
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
126 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC AND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE DECREASING DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...
AND NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS...GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER. STILL EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE VA
BORDER...TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE
CRITERIA FOR A FROST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY LOWER THAN THE FORECAST
LOWS...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY. -KC

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER GENERALLY CLEAR DAY EXPECTED... WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO KNOCK
THICKNESSES BACK DOWN TO READINGS NEARLY 30 M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS OF 67-73. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
CENTRAL NC FROM THE SW LATE THU NIGHT... RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE SW AND QUICKLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SW TO NE. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RAMPS UP AROUND
295K ESPECIALLY IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA... SO WILL TREND TOWARD
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE AND MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE
FAR SW CWA (INCLUDING WINSTON-SALEM / ASHEBORO / ALBEMARLE /
WADESBORO / LAURINBURG) LATE THU NIGHT. MILDER LOWS OF 46-53. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
ACTUALLY DIVERGED A BIT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING AND
SUBSEQUENT QPF.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER SOLUTION...WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
MIDDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWERS
EARLIER IN THE DAY LESS POTENTIAL FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE ECWMF HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A SLOWER SOLUTION BUT BETTER
HEATING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WEAK BUT SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH COMBINED WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 75-81 RANGE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY...MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST. DEEP LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-
35KT...THOUGH STRONGEST TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM BETTER INSTABILITY.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN THE MARGINAL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY...BUT THE SLOWER TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND STRONGER
DCVA WOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE.  GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND DRYING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END.  A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS THE MAIN
SENSIBLE IMPACT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEK IS FORECAST TRANSITION
TO A MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN BLOCKED FLOW NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DONT YET AGREE ON THE DEGREE OF BLOCKING IN THE FLOW.
IN GENERAL...A STRONG TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST STATES BY MONDAY.....WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN.   THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE WHERE A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH ENDS UP ON SUNDAY AND THEN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP SPREADS EAST ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SUGGEST THE FRONT
WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE AND SLIP BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF NC.  PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TEMPS DURING THE TIME
FRAME WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY GROWS INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP GROW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG (10-15 KTS) AND GUSTY (20-25 KTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ABATING AFTER SUNSET AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION COMMENCES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THOUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND RAIN
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT 12-18 MPH WILL OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20-25 MPH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 21-27 PERCENT...AND SOMEWHAT LOW FINE FUEL
MOISTURE IN THE 7-8% RANGE...WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ADVERSE FIRE
BEHAVIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL REISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER...AND WILL CONTINUE
THE HEADLINE IN PRE-SUPPRESSION FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE RH WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THU...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...HOWEVER
THE FINE FUELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN DRIER. THEREFORE...THOSE
INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM... SMITH
AVIATION...KC
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 231719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO BUMP-UP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR
THE COAST IN OFFSHORE AND DOWN-SLOPED WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP
EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
TODAY WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z...REMAINING AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE AND IN ITS
WINDS NW. THERE WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT
TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT
GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/MJC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
115 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...UPDATED FOR VARIABLE WINDS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT THAT AREA HAS ALLOWED LOCAL WINDS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL PERSIST SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL SECONDARY TROF MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW THROUGHOUT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
115 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...UPDATED FOR VARIABLE WINDS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT THAT AREA HAS ALLOWED LOCAL WINDS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL PERSIST SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL SECONDARY TROF MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW THROUGHOUT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KILM 231714
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...AHEAD AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO BUMP-UP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR
THE COAST IN OFFSHORE AND DOWN-SLOPED WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP
EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
TODAY WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z...REMAINING AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE AND IN ITS
WINDS NW. THERE WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT
TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT
GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/MJC







000
FXUS62 KILM 231557
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1157 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1157 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO BUMP-UP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR
THE COAST IN OFFSHORE AND DOWN-SLOPED WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP
EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 16Z...PATCHY AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEARING DOWN ON OUR CWA...SO
ANY LINGERING RESTRICTIONS AFTER 12Z WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE
DRIER AIR BEGINS INFILTRATING OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD
OF TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KMYR BASED ON 11-3.9U IMAGERY...AND TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING FROPA THIS
MORNING AS WEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS BECOME N-NW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CAROLINAS. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME
N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1157 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE AND IN ITS
WINDS NW. THERE WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT
TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT
GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231550
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1150 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...SCALED BACK ON HIGHER SEAS FOR NRN HALF OF
WATERS THIS AFTN AS BUOYS OFF NRN OBX STILL REPORTING ONLY 3-4 FT.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231550
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1150 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...SCALED BACK ON HIGHER SEAS FOR NRN HALF OF
WATERS THIS AFTN AS BUOYS OFF NRN OBX STILL REPORTING ONLY 3-4 FT.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231550
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1150 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...SCALED BACK ON HIGHER SEAS FOR NRN HALF OF
WATERS THIS AFTN AS BUOYS OFF NRN OBX STILL REPORTING ONLY 3-4 FT.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231550
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1150 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...SCALED BACK ON HIGHER SEAS FOR NRN HALF OF
WATERS THIS AFTN AS BUOYS OFF NRN OBX STILL REPORTING ONLY 3-4 FT.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KRAH 231351
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
951 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC AND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SEE DECREASING DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...
AND NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS...GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER. STILL EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE VA
BORDER...TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURE
CRITERIA FOR A FROST ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY LOWER THAN THE FORECAST
LOWS...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY. -KC

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER GENERALLY CLEAR DAY EXPECTED... WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO KNOCK
THICKNESSES BACK DOWN TO READINGS NEARLY 30 M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS OF 67-73. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
CENTRAL NC FROM THE SW LATE THU NIGHT... RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE SW AND QUICKLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SW TO NE. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RAMPS UP AROUND
295K ESPECIALLY IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA... SO WILL TREND TOWARD
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE AND MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE
FAR SW CWA (INCLUDING WINSTON-SALEM / ASHEBORO / ALBEMARLE /
WADESBORO / LAURINBURG) LATE THU NIGHT. MILDER LOWS OF 46-53. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
ACTUALLY DIVERGED A BIT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING AND
SUBSEQUENT QPF.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER SOLUTION...WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
MIDDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWERS
EARLIER IN THE DAY LESS POTENTIAL FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE ECWMF HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A SLOWER SOLUTION BUT BETTER
HEATING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WEAK BUT SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH COMBINED WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 75-81 RANGE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY...MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST. DEEP LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-
35KT...THOUGH STRONGEST TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM BETTER INSTABILITY.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN THE MARGINAL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY...BUT THE SLOWER TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND STRONGER
DCVA WOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE.  GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND DRYING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END.  A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS THE MAIN
SENSIBLE IMPACT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEK IS FORECAST TRANSITION
TO A MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN BLOCKED FLOW NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DONT YET AGREE ON THE DEGREE OF BLOCKING IN THE FLOW.
IN GENERAL...A STRONG TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST STATES BY MONDAY.....WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN.   THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE WHERE A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH ENDS UP ON SUNDAY AND THEN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP SPREADS EAST ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SUGGEST THE FRONT
WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE AND SLIP BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF NC.  PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TEMPS DURING THE TIME
FRAME WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY GROWS INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP GROW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH FEW TO NO
CLOUDS AND NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NW. OF SOME CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE SHIFT OF WINDS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO NORTHWESTERLY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-16 KTS MAY
GUST UP TO 20-25 KTS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT GSO/RDU/RWI/FAY TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOON AFTER 22Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING: CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THU EVENING
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW THU NIGHT... BRINGING WINDS FROM THE SW
AND A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM FROM
FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
BY FRI EVENING... WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW... BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. -GIH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT 12-18 MPH WILL
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO AS HIGH AS 22-29 MPH. THESE WINDS... COMBINED
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 21-27 PERCENT... AND
SOMEWHAT LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE IN THE 7-8% RANGE... WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY. WILL REISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER... AND WILL
CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN PRE-SUPPRESSION FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE RH WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THU... WITH LIGHTER WINDS... HOWEVER
THE FINE FUELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN DRIER. THEREFORE... THOSE
INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM... SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 231314
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
913 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231314
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
913 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231314
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
913 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231314
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
913 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KILM 231128
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
728 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 8 AM AND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DOWN
INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR
SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEARING DOWN ON OUR CWA...SO ANY
LINGERING RESTRICTIONS AFTER 12Z WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE DRIER
AIR BEGINS INFILTRATING OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF TEMPO
IFR CIGS AT KMYR BASED ON 11-3.9U IMAGERY...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING FROPA THIS MORNING AS WEST
WINDS AOB 8 KTS BECOME N-NW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE BY 00Z THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NW. THERE
WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP
UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW
AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR









000
FXUS62 KRAH 231117
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
AND HIGHER-DEWPOINT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT... BUT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WNW
THEN NW. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX PASSAGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST SECTIONS... BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR
TODAY WITH A DRY AND STABLE COLUMN NOTED UPSTREAM AND ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THICKNESSES INDICATE HIGHS OF 68-74. BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 13-18 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH THE DROP IN HUMIDITY TO AROUND
25% WILL BRING ABOUT A RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW). CONTINUED CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT 37-44...
COLDEST IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES AND IN OUTLYING AREAS OF NRN
PIEDMONT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHES OF FROST IN THESE
ISOLATED SPOTS... BUT EVEN THESE COLDER LOWS ARE A BIT ABOVE WHAT WE
NORMALLY NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY... SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW A
REASSESS THE NEED LATER TODAY.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER GENERALLY CLEAR DAY EXPECTED... WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO KNOCK
THICKNESSES BACK DOWN TO READINGS NEARLY 30 M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS OF 67-73. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
CENTRAL NC FROM THE SW LATE THU NIGHT... RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE SW AND QUICKLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SW TO NE. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RAMPS UP AROUND
295K ESPECIALLY IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA... SO WILL TREND TOWARD
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE AND MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE
FAR SW CWA (INCLUDING WINSTON-SALEM / ASHEBORO / ALBEMARLE /
WADESBORO / LAURINBURG) LATE THU NIGHT. MILDER LOWS OF 46-53. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
ACTUALLY DIVERGED A BIT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING AND
SUBSEQUENT QPF.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER SOLUTION...WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
MIDDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWERS
EARLIER IN THE DAY LESS POTENTIAL FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE ECWMF HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A SLOWER SOLUTION BUT BETTER
HEATING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WEAK BUT SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH COMBINED WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 75-81 RANGE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY...MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST. DEEP LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-
35KT...THOUGH STRONGEST TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM BETTER INSTABILITY.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN THE MARGINAL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY...BUT THE SLOWER TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND STRONGER
DCVA WOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE.  GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND DRYING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END.  A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS THE MAIN
SENSIBLE IMPACT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEK IS FORECAST TRANSITION
TO A MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN BLOCKED FLOW NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DONT YET AGREE ON THE DEGREE OF BLOCKING IN THE FLOW.
IN GENERAL...A STRONG TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST STATES BY MONDAY.....WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN.   THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE WHERE A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH ENDS UP ON SUNDAY AND THEN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP SPREADS EAST ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SUGGEST THE FRONT
WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE AND SLIP BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF NC.  PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TEMPS DURING THE TIME
FRAME WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY GROWS INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP GROW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH FEW TO NO
CLOUDS AND NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NW. OF SOME CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE SHIFT OF WINDS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO NORTHWESTERLY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-16 KTS MAY
GUST UP TO 20-25 KTS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT GSO/RDU/RWI/FAY TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOON AFTER 22Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING: CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THU EVENING
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW THU NIGHT... BRINGING WINDS FROM THE SW
AND A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM FROM
FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
BY FRI EVENING... WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW... BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. -GIH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT 12-18 MPH WILL
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO AS HIGH AS 22-29 MPH. THESE WINDS... COMBINED
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 21-27 PERCENT... AND
SOMEWHAT LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE IN THE 7-8% RANGE... WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY. WILL REISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER... AND WILL
CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN PRE-SUPPRESSION FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE RH WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THU... WITH LIGHTER WINDS... HOWEVER
THE FINE FUELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN DRIER. THEREFORE... THOSE
INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM... SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KILM 231031
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 8 AM AND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DOWN
INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR
SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SKC ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS QUICKLY EXITING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LIGHT WSW WINDS TO N AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NW. THERE
WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP
UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW
AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
615 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
615 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KILM 230814 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DOWN
INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR
SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WILL
REISSUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS SOILS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SKC ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS QUICKLY EXITING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LIGHT WSW WINDS TO N AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NW. THERE
WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KT. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP
UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW
AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL












000
FXUS62 KILM 230753
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DOWN
INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR
SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WILL
REISSUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS SOILS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SKC ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS QUICKLY EXITING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LIGHT WSW WINDS TO N AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO N. THERE WILL
BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KT. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A
FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT
THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 230752
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
352 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT
WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 230752
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
352 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT
WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BTC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230732
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
AND HIGHER-DEWPOINT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT... BUT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WNW
THEN NW. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX PASSAGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST SECTIONS... BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR
TODAY WITH A DRY AND STABLE COLUMN NOTED UPSTREAM AND ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THICKNESSES INDICATE HIGHS OF 68-74. BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 13-18 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH THE DROP IN HUMIDITY TO AROUND
25% WILL BRING ABOUT A RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW). CONTINUED CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT 37-44...
COLDEST IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES AND IN OUTLYING AREAS OF NRN
PIEDMONT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHES OF FROST IN THESE
ISOLATED SPOTS... BUT EVEN THESE COLDER LOWS ARE A BIT ABOVE WHAT WE
NORMALLY NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY... SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW A
REASSESS THE NEED LATER TODAY.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER GENERALLY CLEAR DAY EXPECTED... WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO KNOCK
THICKNESSES BACK DOWN TO READINGS NEARLY 30 M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS OF 67-73. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
CENTRAL NC FROM THE SW LATE THU NIGHT... RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE SW AND QUICKLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SW TO NE. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RAMPS UP AROUND
295K ESPECIALLY IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA... SO WILL TREND TOWARD
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE AND MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE
FAR SW CWA (INCLUDING WINSTON-SALEM / ASHEBORO / ALBEMARLE /
WADESBORO / LAURINBURG) LATE THU NIGHT. MILDER LOWS OF 46-53. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
ACTUALLY DIVERGED A BIT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING AND
SUBSEQUENT QPF.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER SOLUTION...WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
MIDDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWERS
EARLIER IN THE DAY LESS POTENTIAL FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE ECWMF HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A SLOWER SOLUTION BUT BETTER
HEATING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WEAK BUT SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH COMBINED WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 75-81 RANGE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY...MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST. DEEP LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-
35KT...THOUGH STRONGEST TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM BETTER INSTABILITY.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN THE MARGINAL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY...BUT THE SLOWER TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND STRONGER
DCVA WOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE.  GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND DRYING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END.  A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS THE MAIN
SENSIBLE IMPACT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEK IS FORECAST TRANSITION
TO A MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN BLOCKED FLOW NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DONT YET AGREE ON THE DEGREE OF BLOCKING IN THE FLOW.
IN GENERAL...A STRONG TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST STATES BY MONDAY.....WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN.   THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE WHERE A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH ENDS UP ON SUNDAY AND THEN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP SPREADS EAST ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SUGGEST THE FRONT
WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE AND SLIP BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF NC.  PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TEMPS DURING THE TIME
FRAME WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY GROWS INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP GROW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS FROM THE WNW WILL
SWEEP ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... WHERE THE SURFACE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH... THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... PRIOR TO 08Z AT
INT/GSO... 09Z AT RDU/RWI... AND BEFORE 10Z AT FAY. AFTER THESE
TIMES... HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS AND NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. OF SOME CONCERN
HOWEVER IS THE SHIFT OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT ALL SITES (FROM NW TO SE) 07Z-10Z. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 12-16 KTS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KTS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT GSO/RDU/RWI/FAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOON AFTER 22Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING: CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THU
EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW THU NIGHT... BRINGING WINDS
FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORM FROM FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH BY FRI EVENING... WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. -GIH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT 12-18 MPH WILL
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO AS HIGH AS 22-29 MPH. THESE WINDS... COMBINED
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 21-27 PERCENT... AND
SOMEWHAT LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE IN THE 7-8% RANGE... WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY. WILL REISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER... AND WILL
CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN PRE-SUPPRESSION FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE RH WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THU... WITH LIGHTER WINDS... HOWEVER
THE FINE FUELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN DRIER. THEREFORE... THOSE
INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM... SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230729
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
AND HIGHER-DEWPOINT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT... BUT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WNW
THEN NW. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX PASSAGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST SECTIONS... BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR
TODAY WITH A DRY AND STABLE COLUMN NOTED UPSTREAM AND ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THICKNESSES INDICATE HIGHS OF 68-74. BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 13-18 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH THE DROP IN HUMIDITY TO AROUND
25% WILL BRING ABOUT A RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW). CONTINUED CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT 37-44...
COLDEST IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES AND IN OUTLYING AREAS OF NRN
PIEDMONT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHES OF FROST IN THESE
ISOLATED SPOTS... BUT EVEN THESE COLDER LOWS ARE A BIT ABOVE WHAT WE
NORMALLY NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY... SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW A
REASSESS THE NEED LATER TODAY.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER GENERALLY CLEAR DAY EXPECTED... WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO KNOCK
THICKNESSES BACK DOWN TO READINGS NEARLY 30 M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS OF 67-73. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
CENTRAL NC FROM THE SW LATE THU NIGHT... RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE SW AND QUICKLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SW TO NE. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RAMPS UP AROUND
295K ESPECIALLY IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA... SO WILL TREND TOWARD
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE AND MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE
FAR SW CWA (INCLUDING WINSTON-SALEM / ASHEBORO / ALBEMARLE /
WADESBORO / LAURINBURG) LATE THU NIGHT. MILDER LOWS OF 46-53. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
ACTUALLY DIVERGED A BIT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING AND
SUBSEQUENT QPF.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER SOLUTION...WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
MIDDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWERS
EARLIER IN THE DAY LESS POTENTIAL FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE ECWMF HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A SLOWER SOLUTION BUT BETTER
HEATING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WEAK BUT SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH COMBINED WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 75-81 RANGE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY...MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST. DEEP LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-
35KT...THOUGH STRONGEST TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM BETTER INSTABILITY.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN THE MARGINAL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY...BUT THE SLOWER TREND WITH THE ECMWF AND STRONGER
DCVA WOULD SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE.  GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND DRYING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END.  A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH BUT REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS THE MAIN
SENSIBLE IMPACT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEK IS FORECAST TRANSITION
TO A MORE AMPLIFIED AND EVEN BLOCKED FLOW NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DONT YET AGREE ON THE DEGREE OF BLOCKING IN THE FLOW.
IN GENERAL...A STRONG TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST STATES BY MONDAY.....WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN.   THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE WHERE A FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH ENDS UP ON SUNDAY AND THEN HOW
QUICKLY PRECIP SPREADS EAST ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SUGGEST THE FRONT
WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE AND SLIP BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF NC.  PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TEMPS DURING THE TIME
FRAME WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY GROWS INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP GROW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS FROM THE WNW WILL
SWEEP ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... WHERE THE SURFACE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH... THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... PRIOR TO 08Z AT
INT/GSO... 09Z AT RDU/RWI... AND BEFORE 10Z AT FAY. AFTER THESE
TIMES... HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS AND NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. OF SOME CONCERN
HOWEVER IS THE SHIFT OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT ALL SITES (FROM NW TO SE) 07Z-10Z. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 12-16 KTS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KTS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT GSO/RDU/RWI/FAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOON AFTER 22Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING: CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THU
EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW THU NIGHT... BRINGING WINDS
FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORM FROM FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH BY FRI EVENING... WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. -GIH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. IN COORDINATION
WITH WAKEFIELD AND BLACKSBURG - AND THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS... WE
WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM... SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 230715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20
MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE
TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25% FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20
MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE
TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25% FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20
MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE
TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25% FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20
MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE
TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25% FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KRAH 230708
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
AND HIGHER-DEWPOINT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT... BUT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
WITH RAPID DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WNW
THEN NW. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX PASSAGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC COAST MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST SECTIONS... BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR
TODAY WITH A DRY AND STABLE COLUMN NOTED UPSTREAM AND ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THICKNESSES INDICATE HIGHS OF 68-74. BRISK WINDS FROM THE
NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 13-18 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH THE DROP IN HUMIDITY TO AROUND
25% WILL BRING ABOUT A RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW). CONTINUED CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT 37-44...
COLDEST IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES AND IN OUTLYING AREAS OF NRN
PIEDMONT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHES OF FROST IN THESE
ISOLATED SPOTS... BUT EVEN THESE COLDER LOWS ARE A BIT ABOVE WHAT WE
NORMALLY NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY... SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW A
REASSESS THE NEED LATER TODAY.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: ANOTHER GENERALLY CLEAR DAY EXPECTED... WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH TO KNOCK
THICKNESSES BACK DOWN TO READINGS NEARLY 30 M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS OF 67-73. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
CENTRAL NC FROM THE SW LATE THU NIGHT... RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE SW AND QUICKLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SW TO NE. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RAMPS UP AROUND
295K ESPECIALLY IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA... SO WILL TREND TOWARD
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AREAWIDE AND MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE
FAR SW CWA (INCLUDING WINSTON-SALEM / ASHEBORO / ALBEMARLE /
WADESBORO / LAURINBURG) LATE THU NIGHT. MILDER LOWS OF 46-53. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

TO BE UPDATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

TRAILING END OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...BUT DIURNAL TIMING WILL BE
FAVORABLE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80...TO PRODUCE RESPECTABLE
INSTABILITY (CAPES >1000J) WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FRONT REACHES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MINS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S. SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN MILD...NEAR 80
AGAIN...DUE TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONGER...BUT
DRY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SETTLES
SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STALL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHETHER WE LOCK IN THE COOL AIR AND GET
SOME OVERRUNNING OR WHETHER ITS SCOURED OUT AND WE WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL INTRODUCE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND LET THE FORECAST EVOLVE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS FROM THE WNW WILL
SWEEP ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... WHERE THE SURFACE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH... THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... PRIOR TO 08Z AT
INT/GSO... 09Z AT RDU/RWI... AND BEFORE 10Z AT FAY. AFTER THESE
TIMES... HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS AND NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. OF SOME CONCERN
HOWEVER IS THE SHIFT OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT ALL SITES (FROM NW TO SE) 07Z-10Z. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 12-16 KTS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KTS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT GSO/RDU/RWI/FAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOON AFTER 22Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING: CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THU
EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW THU NIGHT... BRINGING WINDS
FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORM FROM FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH BY FRI EVENING... WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. -GIH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. IN COORDINATION
WITH WAKEFIELD AND BLACKSBURG - AND THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS... WE
WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM... MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KILM 230554
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
153 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING AND DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY PASS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A
SLIGHT COOL-DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HAVE MOVED UP
TIMING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL END AND HAVE DROPPED ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...ALONG WITH PRETTY MUCH ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
EXPECT REMAINDER OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO FOLLOW.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS
IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.

OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SKC ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS QUICKLY EXITING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LIGHT WSW WINDS TO N AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS PUSH
OFF THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT
WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING
MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR
THE MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO
THE WEST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR
JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY.
SEAS GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY
DROPPING SLIGHTLY SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/RJD









000
FXUS62 KRAH 230512
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUESDAY...

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE PIEDMONT.
BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERED THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AT MID AFTERNOON DISSIPATED AS IT ENCOUNTERED A MUCH DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. SFC COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD ENTER THE NW PIEDMONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS
SFC FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS SEWD QUICKLY...EXITING OUR SE COUNTIES
BY 2-3 AM. LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 25KTS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE NW FLOW COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH WILL AID TO DISSIPATE/DIMINISH CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLEARING
TREND NOW OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT TO SPREAD
EWD OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWED TO COOL THIS EVENING AND THIS TREND
SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN
BY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS DRYING
PROCESS ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD LATE. A RATHER QUICK RETURN SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY (BUT WITH MUCH LESS VELOCITY 8-12 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON). THIS INFORMATION WILL BE COLLABORATED WITH
THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS.

OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 30
YEAR NORMALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SUNNY
AND WINDY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (SE). CLEAR
AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NE TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

TRAILING END OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...BUT DIURNAL TIMING WILL BE
FAVORABLE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80...TO PRODUCE RESPECTABLE
INSTABILITY (CAPES >1000J) WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FRONT REACHES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MINS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S. SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN MILD...NEAR 80
AGAIN...DUE TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONGER...BUT
DRY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SETTLES
SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STALL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHETHER WE LOCK IN THE COOL AIR AND GET
SOME OVERRUNNING OR WHETHER ITS SCOURED OUT AND WE WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL INTRODUCE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND LET THE FORECAST EVOLVE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS FROM THE WNW WILL
SWEEP ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... WHERE THE SURFACE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH... THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... PRIOR TO 08Z AT
INT/GSO... 09Z AT RDU/RWI... AND BEFORE 10Z AT FAY. AFTER THESE
TIMES... HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS AND NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. OF SOME CONCERN
HOWEVER IS THE SHIFT OF WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT ALL SITES (FROM NW TO SE) 07Z-10Z. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 12-16 KTS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KTS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT GSO/RDU/RWI/FAY
TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOON AFTER 22Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING: CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THU
EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW THU NIGHT... BRINGING WINDS
FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS... WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FRI MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORM FROM FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH BY FRI EVENING... WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. -GIH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. IN COORDINATION
WITH WAKEFIELD AND BLACKSBURG - AND THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS... WE
WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM... MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 230432
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN NC WILL CLEAR OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH AFTER 06Z. CLEARING AND GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP
MIN TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND MID 50S COAST ON A NW
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT IN A FRESHENING NW FLOW. THESE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH SCA CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE NRN
WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC/JME
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230432
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN NC WILL CLEAR OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH AFTER 06Z. CLEARING AND GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP
MIN TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND MID 50S COAST ON A NW
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT IN A FRESHENING NW FLOW. THESE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH SCA CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE NRN
WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC/JME
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230432
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN NC WILL CLEAR OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH AFTER 06Z. CLEARING AND GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP
MIN TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND MID 50S COAST ON A NW
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT IN A FRESHENING NW FLOW. THESE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH SCA CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE NRN
WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC/JME
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230432
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN NC WILL CLEAR OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH AFTER 06Z. CLEARING AND GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP
MIN TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND MID 50S COAST ON A NW
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT IN A FRESHENING NW FLOW. THESE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH SCA CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE NRN
WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC/JME
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...JBM







000
FXUS62 KILM 230229
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1029 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COOLING AND
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY PASS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-
DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HAVE MOVED
UP TIMING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL END AND HAVE DROPPED ANY MENTION
OF THUNDER...ALONG WITH PRETTY MUCH ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
EXPECT REMAINDER OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO FOLLOW.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS
IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.

OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
AND CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE INLAND SITES...POSSIBLY HOLDING TOGETHER
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST...BUT COVERAGE OVERALL WILL BE
LIMITED. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS 15-20 KTS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES ALONG WITH
KLBT...WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AT KFLO. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS PUSH
OFF THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT
WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING
MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO THE WEST AT TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY
WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/SHK





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230216
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUESDAY...

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE PIEDMONT.
BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AS IT ENTERED THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AT MID AFTERNOON DISSIPATED AS IT ENCOUNTERED A MUCH DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. SFC COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD ENTER THE NW PIEDMONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THIS
SFC FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS SEWD QUICKLY...EXITING OUR SE COUNTIES
BY 2-3 AM. LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OVERNIGHT
THOUGH THE STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 25KTS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE NW FLOW COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH WILL AID TO DISSIPATE/DIMINISH CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLEARING
TREND NOW OCCURRING IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT TO SPREAD
EWD OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWED TO COOL THIS EVENING AND THIS TREND
SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN
BY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS DRYING
PROCESS ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD LATE. A RATHER QUICK RETURN SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY (BUT WITH MUCH LESS VELOCITY 8-12 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON). THIS INFORMATION WILL BE COLLABORATED WITH
THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS.

OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 30
YEAR NORMALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SUNNY
AND WINDY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (SE). CLEAR
AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NE TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

TRAILING END OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...BUT DIURNAL TIMING WILL BE
FAVORABLE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80...TO PRODUCE RESPECTABLE
INSTABILITY (CAPES >1000J) WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FRONT REACHES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MINS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S. SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN MILD...NEAR 80
AGAIN...DUE TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONGER...BUT
DRY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SETTLES
SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STALL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHETHER WE LOCK IN THE COOL AIR AND GET
SOME OVERRUNNING OR WHETHER ITS SCOURED OUT AND WE WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL INTRODUCE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND LET THE FORECAST EVOLVE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

A BROKEN BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS NEAR KFAY... WHERE A BRIEF SHOWER
AND/OR WIND GUST OR TWO OF UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM (VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS ANY
PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT). A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... ALLOWING WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION... WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE SUSTAINED... WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE... STRONGEST EAST (KRWI/KRDU/KFAY). OTHERWISE... EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS/MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THU NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
(WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY)... FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
ON SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. IN COORDINATION
WITH WAKEFIELD AND BLACKSBURG - AND THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS... WE
WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM... MLM
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 230138
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT PROGRESSIVE MID
LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACRS THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING AND GOOD
POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID
50S COAST ON A NW BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25
MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KMHX 230138
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT PROGRESSIVE MID
LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACRS THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING AND GOOD
POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID
50S COAST ON A NW BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25
MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KRAH 222354
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
754 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRACKING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. DCVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MARGINAL
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z-23Z IN THE TRIAD AND 20-01Z IN THE TRIANGLE AND
COASTAL PLAIN...SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRW-NMM INDICATE. ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDER
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

THE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT IS STABLE AND
BRINGING IN LOW DEW POINTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL QUICKLY DRY
OUT THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE DRY AIR IS MIXED FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SOON AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. -SSR/VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN
BY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS DRYING
PROCESS ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
BECOMES POSITIONED OVERHEAD LATE. A RATHER QUICK RETURN SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY (BUT WITH MUCH LESS VELOCITY 8-12 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON). THIS INFORMATION WILL BE COLLABORATED WITH
THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS.

OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE 30
YEAR NORMALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SUNNY
AND WINDY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (SE). CLEAR
AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NE TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

TRAILING END OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...BUT DIURNAL TIMING WILL BE
FAVORABLE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80...TO PRODUCE RESPECTABLE
INSTABILITY (CAPES >1000J) WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
FRONT REACHES THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MINS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID 50S. SATURDAY WE WILL REMAIN MILD...NEAR 80
AGAIN...DUE TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONGER...BUT
DRY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PRESSED SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SETTLES
SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL STALL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHETHER WE LOCK IN THE COOL AIR AND GET
SOME OVERRUNNING OR WHETHER ITS SCOURED OUT AND WE WARM UP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL INTRODUCE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND LET THE FORECAST EVOLVE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

A BROKEN BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS NEAR KFAY... WHERE A BRIEF SHOWER
AND/OR WIND GUST OR TWO OF UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM (VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS ANY
PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT). A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... ALLOWING WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION... WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE SUSTAINED... WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE... STRONGEST EAST (KRWI/KRDU/KFAY). OTHERWISE... EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS/MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THU NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
(WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY)... FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
ON SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...
AS OF 207 PM TUESDAY...

...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY
FOR 900 AM THROUGH 700 PM...-VINCENT

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 30 BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT. IN COORDINATION
WITH WAKEFIELD AND BLACKSBURG - AND THE FORESTRY OFFICIALS... WE
WILL ISSUE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM... MLM
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KILM 222342
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A COOLING AND DRYING TREND
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS
ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY
VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS. NO
LIGHTNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
POSSIBILITY ON THE LATEST UPDATE. NO REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 20 KTS YET. EARLIER THOUGHT THAT WE COULD SEE SOME FLARE UPS
WHEN THIS LINE OF CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...BUT THAT CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED SO DO NOT EXPECT MICH
FROM THIS INTERACTION EITHER. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT THOUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE
CAROLINA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THE
AIRMASS IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. A 300 MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL BECOME FAVORABLY LOCATED FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING
TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-8 PM. GIVEN A DEEP DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEARLY 7000 FEET
THICK...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE COAST...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE.
FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.

OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
AND CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE INLAND SITES...POSSIBLY HOLDING TOGETHER
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST...BUT COVERAGE OVERALL WILL BE
LIMITED. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS 15-20 KTS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES ALONG WITH
KLBT...WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AT KFLO. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENED NEARSHORE BY
THE ADDITION OF THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE. IN FACT AT 3 PM WINDS WERE
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 21 KNOTS AT TOPSAIL
BEACH NC. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFF THE COAST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL VEER WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING MORE
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO THE WEST AT TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY
WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/TRA/SHK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 222334
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
734 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF IS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACRS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING.
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE WAVE AND SFC TROF MOVE THRU
THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIP MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AND
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING SEABREEZE BNDRY SO WONT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE POPS AS YET.
CHANCES FOR TSTMS ALSO LOOKING VERY LIMITED GIVEN DAYTIME HEAT
LOSS AND WEAK FORCING BUT WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION THIS
UPDATE FOR NOW.

DECENT POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND
TO MID 50S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE ONLY VCSH MENTION IN TAFS WITH THIS
FCST. SHORT DURATION MVFR PSBLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS TO
OCCUR ON STATION.

THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A NW
FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT INTO WED. LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
EVENING...BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JBM/BTC
MARINE...CGG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KILM 222330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A COOLING AND DRYING TREND
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS
ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. A 300 MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL BECOME FAVORABLY LOCATED FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING
TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-8 PM. GIVEN A DEEP DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEARLY 7000 FEET
THICK...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE COAST...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE.
FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.

OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.

I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
AND CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE INLAND SITES...POSSIBLY HOLDING TOGETHER
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST...BUT COVERAGE OVERALL WILL BE
LIMITED. AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS 15-20 KTS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES ALONG WITH
KLBT...WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AT KFLO. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENED
NEARSHORE BY THE ADDITION OF THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE. IN FACT AT 3 PM
WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 21 KNOTS AT
TOPSAIL BEACH NC. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFF THE COAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL VEER WINDS
MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING MORE
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO THE WEST AT TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY
WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 222012
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AREA
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS WILL
MOVE IN FROM W-NW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD COAST WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY OVER AREA...AND ADJUSTED POPS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH
40 POPS FOR WRN SECTIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AND 30% FOR COAST. SVR
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT STRONGER WIND GUSTS PSBL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDEX VALUES UP TO 44 KT.

LINGERING SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS ALONG COAST 03Z-06Z...THEN CLEARING IN
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A TSTM WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE ONLY VCSH
MENTION IN TAFS WITH THIS FCST. PERIOD OF MVFR PSBLY WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT INTO WED.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT
THIS EVENING...BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SW FLOW 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JBM
MARINE...CGG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...BTC/JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 222012
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AREA
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS WILL
MOVE IN FROM W-NW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD COAST WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY OVER AREA...AND ADJUSTED POPS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH
40 POPS FOR WRN SECTIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AND 30% FOR COAST. SVR
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT STRONGER WIND GUSTS PSBL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDEX VALUES UP TO 44 KT.

LINGERING SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS ALONG COAST 03Z-06Z...THEN CLEARING IN
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A TSTM WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE ONLY VCSH
MENTION IN TAFS WITH THIS FCST. PERIOD OF MVFR PSBLY WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT INTO WED.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT
THIS EVENING...BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SW FLOW 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JBM
MARINE...CGG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...BTC/JME







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