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000
FXUS62 KMHX 192036 CCA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SE STATES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY INITIALLY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE AREA LATER ON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHUD ALSO HELP LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S WITH A BIT COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MILDER AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPAWN WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SATURDAY. SUBTLE LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WITH PERHAPS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO
BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON BUT CANT
RULE OUT PRECIP ANYTIME OF DAY. THE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD
COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RISES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED MOST OF
SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN THE COAST FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS AND INCREASED THEM
SOMEWHAT... AS MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP. TOUGH TEMP FORECAST MON...AS CAD WILL BE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THINK THAT
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 50S COASTAL PLAIN...AND INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY THEN
SOUTHERLY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.

DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS INC AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE
MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID- ATLANTIC. AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING DIGGING JET...AND LARGE SCALE
OMEGA/FGEN WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG
AND E OF HWY 17 AS EXPECTING TO SEE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP
AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM
SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES DUE TO BACKED
SSE SFC FLOW. THOUGH IT REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...THERE COULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM PRODUCING LOCALIZED HIGH WIND GUSTS
OR AN ISO TORNADO GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM TUE NIGHT WITH VALUES HOLDING IN
THE 50S AND EVEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO THE 60S.

PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY WED
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND DEEP LAYER SWRLY DRYING OF THE
COLUMN INTRUDES. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SOAR INTO THE 1380-1390M
RANGE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 70. HAVE CAPPED HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 60S AS AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HIGHS.

DRY AND COOLER WITH NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS COLUMN MOISTENING INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABV VFR LEVELS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. ANY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY SHUD HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY ADVERSE EFFECT ON VISIBILITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES
UP THE SE COAST. SUB- VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS FLOW WILL BE WEAK IN KICKING OUT ANY
LEFTOVER MOISTURE. STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE AND VEER SLIGHTLY THRU SATURDAY
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. 2-3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD SLOWLY TO 3-4 FT ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...WINDS REMAIN NE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NE WINDS WILL BACK E THEN SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COASTAL LOW AS NE/E GRADIENT IS PINCHED AS THE LOW RIDES
UP THE COAST. WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND EXPECT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT AND CROSSES THE WATERS
WED. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INC DRAMATICALLY LATE TUE NIGHT
AND ESP WED BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY WED EVENING. WINDS COULD BE
IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WED INTO THUR.
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATE THUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL












000
FXUS62 KMHX 192036 CCA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SE STATES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY INITIALLY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE AREA LATER ON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHUD ALSO HELP LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S WITH A BIT COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MILDER AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPAWN WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SATURDAY. SUBTLE LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WITH PERHAPS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO
BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON BUT CANT
RULE OUT PRECIP ANYTIME OF DAY. THE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD
COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RISES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED MOST OF
SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN THE COAST FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS AND INCREASED THEM
SOMEWHAT... AS MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP. TOUGH TEMP FORECAST MON...AS CAD WILL BE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THINK THAT
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 50S COASTAL PLAIN...AND INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY THEN
SOUTHERLY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.

DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS INC AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE
MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID- ATLANTIC. AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING DIGGING JET...AND LARGE SCALE
OMEGA/FGEN WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG
AND E OF HWY 17 AS EXPECTING TO SEE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP
AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM
SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES DUE TO BACKED
SSE SFC FLOW. THOUGH IT REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...THERE COULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM PRODUCING LOCALIZED HIGH WIND GUSTS
OR AN ISO TORNADO GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM TUE NIGHT WITH VALUES HOLDING IN
THE 50S AND EVEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO THE 60S.

PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY WED
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND DEEP LAYER SWRLY DRYING OF THE
COLUMN INTRUDES. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SOAR INTO THE 1380-1390M
RANGE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 70. HAVE CAPPED HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 60S AS AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HIGHS.

DRY AND COOLER WITH NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS COLUMN MOISTENING INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABV VFR LEVELS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. ANY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY SHUD HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY ADVERSE EFFECT ON VISIBILITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES
UP THE SE COAST. SUB- VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS FLOW WILL BE WEAK IN KICKING OUT ANY
LEFTOVER MOISTURE. STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE AND VEER SLIGHTLY THRU SATURDAY
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. 2-3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD SLOWLY TO 3-4 FT ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...WINDS REMAIN NE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NE WINDS WILL BACK E THEN SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COASTAL LOW AS NE/E GRADIENT IS PINCHED AS THE LOW RIDES
UP THE COAST. WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND EXPECT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT AND CROSSES THE WATERS
WED. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INC DRAMATICALLY LATE TUE NIGHT
AND ESP WED BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY WED EVENING. WINDS COULD BE
IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WED INTO THUR.
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATE THUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL













000
FXUS62 KMHX 192030
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SE STATES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY INITIALLY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE AREA LATER ON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHUD ALSO HELP LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S WITH A BIT COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MILDER AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPAWN WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SATURDAY. SUBTLE LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WITH PERHAPS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO
BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON BUT CANT
RULE OUT PRECIP ANYTIME OF DAY. THE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD
COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RISES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED MOST OF
SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN THE COAST FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS AND INCREASED THEM
SOMEWHAT... AS MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP. TOUGH TEMP FORECAST MON...AS CAD WILL BE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THINK THAT
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 50S COASTAL PLAIN...AND INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY THEN
SOUTHERLY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.

DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS INC AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE
MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID- ATLANTIC. AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING DIGGING JET...AND LARGE SCALE
OMEGA/FGEN WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG
AND E OF HWY 17 AS EXPECTING TO SEE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP
AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM
SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES DUE TO
BACKED SSE SFC FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM TUE NIGHT WITH VALUES
HOLDING IN THE 50S AND EVEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO THE 60S.

PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY WED
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND DEEP LAYER SWRLY DRYING OF
THE COLUMN INTRUDES. THOUGH IT REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM PRODUCING LOCALIZED HIGH
WIND GUSTS OR AN ISO TORNADO GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SOAR INTO THE
1380-1390M RANGE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 70. HAVE
CAPPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S AS AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HIGHS.

DRY AND COOLER WITH NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS COLUMN MOISTENING INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABV VFR LEVELS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. ANY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY SHUD HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY ADVERSE EFFECT ON VISIBILITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES
UP THE SE COAST. SUB- VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS FLOW WILL BE WEAK IN KICKING OUT ANY
LEFTOVER MOISTURE. STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE AND VEER SLIGHTLY THRU SATURDAY
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. 2-3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD SLOWLY TO 3-4 FT ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...WINDS REMAIN NE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NE WINDS WILL BACK E THEN SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COASTAL LOW AS NE/E GRADIENT IS PINCHED AS THE LOW RIDES
UP THE COAST. WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND EXPECT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT AND CROSSES THE WATERS
WED. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INC DRAMATICALLY LATE TUE NIGHT
AND ESP WED BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY WED EVENING. WINDS COULD BE
IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WED INTO THUR.
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATE THUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 192030
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SE STATES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY INITIALLY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE AREA LATER ON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHUD ALSO HELP LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S WITH A BIT COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MILDER AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPAWN WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SATURDAY. SUBTLE LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WITH PERHAPS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO
BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON BUT CANT
RULE OUT PRECIP ANYTIME OF DAY. THE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD
COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RISES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED MOST OF
SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN THE COAST FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS AND INCREASED THEM
SOMEWHAT... AS MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP. TOUGH TEMP FORECAST MON...AS CAD WILL BE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THINK THAT
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 50S COASTAL PLAIN...AND INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY THEN
SOUTHERLY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.

DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS INC AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE
MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID- ATLANTIC. AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING DIGGING JET...AND LARGE SCALE
OMEGA/FGEN WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG
AND E OF HWY 17 AS EXPECTING TO SEE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP
AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM
SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES DUE TO
BACKED SSE SFC FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM TUE NIGHT WITH VALUES
HOLDING IN THE 50S AND EVEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO THE 60S.

PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY WED
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND DEEP LAYER SWRLY DRYING OF
THE COLUMN INTRUDES. THOUGH IT REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM PRODUCING LOCALIZED HIGH
WIND GUSTS OR AN ISO TORNADO GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SOAR INTO THE
1380-1390M RANGE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 70. HAVE
CAPPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S AS AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HIGHS.

DRY AND COOLER WITH NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS COLUMN MOISTENING INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABV VFR LEVELS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. ANY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY SHUD HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY ADVERSE EFFECT ON VISIBILITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES
UP THE SE COAST. SUB- VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS FLOW WILL BE WEAK IN KICKING OUT ANY
LEFTOVER MOISTURE. STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE AND VEER SLIGHTLY THRU SATURDAY
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. 2-3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD SLOWLY TO 3-4 FT ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...WINDS REMAIN NE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NE WINDS WILL BACK E THEN SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COASTAL LOW AS NE/E GRADIENT IS PINCHED AS THE LOW RIDES
UP THE COAST. WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND EXPECT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT AND CROSSES THE WATERS
WED. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INC DRAMATICALLY LATE TUE NIGHT
AND ESP WED BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY WED EVENING. WINDS COULD BE
IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WED INTO THUR.
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATE THUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL









  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 192025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BEGIN TO WEDGE STRONGLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT
MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ITS MOST
DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED ON SAT.

HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY ENCROACHING FROM THE W AND SW AND
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE MID AND LATE EVE
HOURS...BECOMING CLOUDY BY/AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BELOW 1500-2000 FT WILL BE NE TO ENE TONIGHT. ABOVE THAT
SHALLOW LAYER...THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST WSW
FLOW. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS
STUBBORNLY HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DRY AIR IS CERTAINLY WELL REPRESENTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED
ONSHORE AND SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN DEWPOINTS RECOVER
INTO THE 30S. MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW SOON THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
SHOW POPS RAMPING UP TOWARD MORNING...BUT REMAINING IN THE GOOD
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
RESERVED FOR SAT.

LOW TEMPS ALSO A CHALLENGE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED...BUT DRY AIR COUPLED WITH MAINLY THIN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVE WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THUS...WE MAY END UP WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS TEMPS SHOULD
TEND TO STABILIZE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING LIGHT
RAINFALL DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN DROP TEMPS AT THE
SURFACE NEAR DAWN. WILL FORECAST A SHARP DROP IN EVE TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S...BUT MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR BASIN WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO THICKEN. THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER THAN A CHILLY LIQUID RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE ESE OR SE ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS TIL NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
LATER THIS EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43/RJD






000
FXUS62 KILM 192025
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BEGIN TO WEDGE STRONGLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT
MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ITS MOST
DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED ON SAT.

HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY ENCROACHING FROM THE W AND SW AND
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE MID AND LATE EVE
HOURS...BECOMING CLOUDY BY/AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BELOW 1500-2000 FT WILL BE NE TO ENE TONIGHT. ABOVE THAT
SHALLOW LAYER...THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST WSW
FLOW. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE LATE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS
STUBBORNLY HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DRY AIR IS CERTAINLY WELL REPRESENTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED
ONSHORE AND SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN DEWPOINTS RECOVER
INTO THE 30S. MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW SOON THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
SHOW POPS RAMPING UP TOWARD MORNING...BUT REMAINING IN THE GOOD
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
RESERVED FOR SAT.

LOW TEMPS ALSO A CHALLENGE AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED...BUT DRY AIR COUPLED WITH MAINLY THIN CLOUD
COVER THIS EVE WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THUS...WE MAY END UP WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS TEMPS SHOULD
TEND TO STABILIZE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING LIGHT
RAINFALL DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN DROP TEMPS AT THE
SURFACE NEAR DAWN. WILL FORECAST A SHARP DROP IN EVE TEMPS WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S...BUT MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
FEAR BASIN WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO THICKEN. THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE OTHER THAN A CHILLY LIQUID RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND CLOUDY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SURFACE WAVES PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE FIRST
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING 5H
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW IS RATHER UNINSPIRING BUT DOES
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
DOWN THE COAST ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFT...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERE IS A PERIOD SAT INTO SAT
EVENING WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...IS
PRESENT. ALTHOUGH POP REMAINS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
TOTAL QPF WILL BE LOW. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONFINED TO THE COAST. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVE
EAST SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
DRYING OCCURS ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUIET MOIST WITH THE WEDGE
HOLDING STRONG. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH
HIGHS RUNNING BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. ALTHOUGH NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT AND CURRENTLY BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE PERIOD
WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES PUSHING DOWN THE COAST AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN AN AREA OF INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEED 1.25 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LEAD TO
RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED IN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW JUST OFF SHORE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH BY MON
AFTERNOON THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GET PUSHED INLAND SLIGHTLY
DRIVING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BUT FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A TREND OF WARMING ALONG THE COAST. PCP MAY BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND COASTAL CAROLINAS END UP
IN A NW FLOW ON THE BACK END INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER WARMER
AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEREFORE
SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE MON MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPER
WARMER AIR BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST AND THEN COOLER AIR THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUES INTO WED BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED. THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY AND DAMP TO WET
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER THURS INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOL BUT WILL WARM AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT
PUSHES INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
MON BETWEEN COOLER TEMPS INLAND...IN THE 40S MOST PLACES...TO
POSSIBLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUES THE WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 MOST PLACES FOR TUES AND WED UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE ESE OR SE ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS TIL NEAR SUNSET.
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
LATER THIS EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES/LOWS PASS
EAST OF THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EXCEPTION WILL BE
LOCATIONS SHELTERED TO NORTHEAST FLOW OR WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
HERE SEAS WOULD BE 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE WATERS
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BUT OVERALL EXPECT MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO OFF SHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST BUT A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUES.

AS THIS LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TUES INTO WED WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. WNA
SHOWS SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND POSSIBLE UP TO 7
TO 8 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
WED AND LASTING INTO THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43/RJD






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KRAH 191959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN UNTIL A STRONGER
LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE
FROM A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME
NORTHEASTERLIES ALONG THE COAST AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S AS HEATING BEGINS TO WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES TO WARM WITH FORECASTED MAX TEMPS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST AS OBSERVED TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THERE.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOME
CEILINGS FIRST APPEARING ABOVE 15 KFT BUT THEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 KFT OR JUST BELOW AROUND DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ANY PRECIPIATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION FOR THE LOW IS CONCERNED...CLOUDS WILL HOLD
OFF THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...AND THUS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECT HERE WITH VALUES RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 30S WITH SOME COLDER POCKETS POSSIBLE IN THE RURAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM OUR SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
TRENDED THIS SYSTEM TO BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO THIS AND
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED BACK ON POPS AND QPF FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CHANCES WITH SOME BRIEF LIKELIES ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
SEVERELY HANDICAPS ANY THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRIAD THAT WAS
POTENTIALLY BEING SHOWN BY PRIOR MODEL RUNS. FIRST...THERE MAY NOT
EVEN BE PRECIPIATION AT ALL IN THIS AREA. IF PRECIPIATION DOES IN
FACT OCCUR HERE...THE BEST OMEGA IS IN THE 700 MB LEVEL AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHES ABOVE THAT. THUS CURRENT MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH
WAS THE MOST BULLISH ON THE SITUATION...NEARLY SATURATES IN THE 800-
600 MB LEVEL BUT LESS SO ABOVE THAT INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
INCLUDE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE MIX AND CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT
ANY FALLING PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID.

THE CONCLUDING UPSHOT OF THE DAY WILL BE AN OVERCAST DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
STARTING TO MOVE INTO POSITION TO EVENTUALLY FORM A CAD WEDGE BUT
INITIALLY WILL HELP AID SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH TAKE OVER BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD
BE A WARMER DAY THAN SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING SOUTHERN LOW WILL
BRING DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 40 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPIATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT: COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR SERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SSW THROUGH CENTRAL NC
SUN NIGHT/MON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
TRACK EAST AND DIG THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS SUN... THEN KICK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/MIDSOUTH/SRN APP
REGION... DAMPENING IN THE PROCESS AS NRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO
DIG AND PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL WEAKENING WAVE AND RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
HELP SATURATE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FIRST SUN NIGHT... THEN AS THE
700-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 290K-295K...
EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SSW AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES. MODEL TIMING AND THEIR RECENT SLOWING TRENDS SUGGEST A
MID EVENING ONSET TIME IN THE SW... SPREADING NNE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE MORE STEEPLY
SLOPED PORTION OF THE COLD DOME SURFACE OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND
WILL RAISE POPS HERE TO LIKELY... AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE NEEDED STARTING OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. HIGH
COVERAGE (70-80%) OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... AND INTO NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH
PRECIP THEN TAPERING DOWN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LESS OVER CENTRAL NC
FROM SW TO NE MON AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE RETREATING MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE... RESULTING IN
TOP-DOWN DRYING. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN COOL/MOIST AND STABLE... AS THE DAMMING
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM... REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OR SOUNDS LATE MON. WILL RETAIN
OVERCAST SKIES (LOW CLOUDS PLUS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE DIGGING
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH YIELDS INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW INTO NC)
AND LOW CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN
THIS REGIME. THICKNESSES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL-LIQUID
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY GIVEN AN
EXPECTED STRONG COLD DOME... AND WILL NOT INDICATE A DRASTIC WARMUP
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT... ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BUDGE
LITTLE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT. LOWS SUN NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S... AND HIGHS MON IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER
50S (ALTHOUGH THIS DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS MAY BE TOO LARGE IF WE SEE
STEADY PRECIP INTO THE WEDGE ALL DAY LONG). LOWS MON NIGHT FROM
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN FOR
MID WEEK... ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO QUIETER WEATHER APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

WE`LL START THIS PERIOD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHIFTING EASTWARD YET STILL EXTENDING SE DOWN
THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE THE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE SITS
OVER COASTAL NC EXTENDING BACK THROUGH NRN GA TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUE... THEN DRIFT NE AS ITS LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES WED. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEDGE
FRONT WELL INLAND TUE EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW PUSHES INTO SW NC
(MORE PROMINENT ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS). TRYING TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION OF WEDGE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER-STAGE DAMMING
EVENTS IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT... GIVEN THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE
PUSHING OVER AND JUST OFF THE MARITIMES BUT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
STRENGTH NEAR 1030 MB. WILL FOLLOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANINGS OF
SUCH EVENTS AND KEEP A COOL STABLE REGIME IN THE NW PIEDMONT... AS
IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS. WE SHOULD SEE THE RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP EXTEND INTO TUE... CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST BUT WITH MARGINAL/WEAK
FORCING FEATURES. STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO WED... INCLUDING
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE JUST TO OUR SW.
WILL STICK WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR NOW. THE GFS/ECMWF
STILL INDICATE THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPING ENE THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME WED (WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS)...
AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/TRACK OF VORTICITY CENTERS AND THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW... WE MAY STILL SEE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IF WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY INSTABILITY...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE EVENING OF
CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS
TUE/WED ARE TRICKY AND DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE... AS A MINOR
SWING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH THE WEDGE FRONT OR LOW TRACKS WILL
GREATLY ALTER TEMPS. WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME DAMMING AIR MASS
HOLDING IN THE NW CWA... EXPECT HIGHS TUE FROM 49 NW TO 61 SE.
MINIMAL DROP TUE NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
POSSIBLE ERODING WEDGE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA... AND WILL GO
WITH LOWS OF 44-52. HIGHS 52 NW TO 61 SE WED WITH ALL BUT POSSIBLY
THE NW CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS SHOULD THEN FALL OFF WED
EVENING/NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING AND COOL AIR ADVECTION... TO
LOWS OF 33-38. CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRI APPEAR FAIR WITH A WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHERN-STREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CHRISTMAS DAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND MID TO UPPER
50S FRI. LOWS IN THE 30S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 191959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN UNTIL A STRONGER
LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE
FROM A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME
NORTHEASTERLIES ALONG THE COAST AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S AS HEATING BEGINS TO WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES TO WARM WITH FORECASTED MAX TEMPS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST AS OBSERVED TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THERE.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOME
CEILINGS FIRST APPEARING ABOVE 15 KFT BUT THEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 KFT OR JUST BELOW AROUND DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ANY PRECIPIATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION FOR THE LOW IS CONCERNED...CLOUDS WILL HOLD
OFF THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...AND THUS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECT HERE WITH VALUES RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 30S WITH SOME COLDER POCKETS POSSIBLE IN THE RURAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM OUR SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
TRENDED THIS SYSTEM TO BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO THIS AND
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED BACK ON POPS AND QPF FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CHANCES WITH SOME BRIEF LIKELIES ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
SEVERELY HANDICAPS ANY THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRIAD THAT WAS
POTENTIALLY BEING SHOWN BY PRIOR MODEL RUNS. FIRST...THERE MAY NOT
EVEN BE PRECIPIATION AT ALL IN THIS AREA. IF PRECIPIATION DOES IN
FACT OCCUR HERE...THE BEST OMEGA IS IN THE 700 MB LEVEL AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHES ABOVE THAT. THUS CURRENT MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH
WAS THE MOST BULLISH ON THE SITUATION...NEARLY SATURATES IN THE 800-
600 MB LEVEL BUT LESS SO ABOVE THAT INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
INCLUDE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE MIX AND CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT
ANY FALLING PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID.

THE CONCLUDING UPSHOT OF THE DAY WILL BE AN OVERCAST DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
STARTING TO MOVE INTO POSITION TO EVENTUALLY FORM A CAD WEDGE BUT
INITIALLY WILL HELP AID SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH TAKE OVER BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD
BE A WARMER DAY THAN SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING SOUTHERN LOW WILL
BRING DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 40 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPIATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT: COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR SERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SSW THROUGH CENTRAL NC
SUN NIGHT/MON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
TRACK EAST AND DIG THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS SUN... THEN KICK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/MIDSOUTH/SRN APP
REGION... DAMPENING IN THE PROCESS AS NRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO
DIG AND PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL WEAKENING WAVE AND RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
HELP SATURATE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FIRST SUN NIGHT... THEN AS THE
700-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 290K-295K...
EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SSW AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES. MODEL TIMING AND THEIR RECENT SLOWING TRENDS SUGGEST A
MID EVENING ONSET TIME IN THE SW... SPREADING NNE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE MORE STEEPLY
SLOPED PORTION OF THE COLD DOME SURFACE OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND
WILL RAISE POPS HERE TO LIKELY... AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE NEEDED STARTING OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. HIGH
COVERAGE (70-80%) OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... AND INTO NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH
PRECIP THEN TAPERING DOWN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LESS OVER CENTRAL NC
FROM SW TO NE MON AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE RETREATING MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE... RESULTING IN
TOP-DOWN DRYING. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN COOL/MOIST AND STABLE... AS THE DAMMING
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM... REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OR SOUNDS LATE MON. WILL RETAIN
OVERCAST SKIES (LOW CLOUDS PLUS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE DIGGING
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH YIELDS INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW INTO NC)
AND LOW CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN
THIS REGIME. THICKNESSES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL-LIQUID
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY GIVEN AN
EXPECTED STRONG COLD DOME... AND WILL NOT INDICATE A DRASTIC WARMUP
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT... ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BUDGE
LITTLE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT. LOWS SUN NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S... AND HIGHS MON IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER
50S (ALTHOUGH THIS DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS MAY BE TOO LARGE IF WE SEE
STEADY PRECIP INTO THE WEDGE ALL DAY LONG). LOWS MON NIGHT FROM
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN FOR
MID WEEK... ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO QUIETER WEATHER APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

WE`LL START THIS PERIOD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHIFTING EASTWARD YET STILL EXTENDING SE DOWN
THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE THE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE SITS
OVER COASTAL NC EXTENDING BACK THROUGH NRN GA TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUE... THEN DRIFT NE AS ITS LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES WED. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEDGE
FRONT WELL INLAND TUE EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW PUSHES INTO SW NC
(MORE PROMINENT ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS). TRYING TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION OF WEDGE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER-STAGE DAMMING
EVENTS IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT... GIVEN THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE
PUSHING OVER AND JUST OFF THE MARITIMES BUT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
STRENGTH NEAR 1030 MB. WILL FOLLOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANINGS OF
SUCH EVENTS AND KEEP A COOL STABLE REGIME IN THE NW PIEDMONT... AS
IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS. WE SHOULD SEE THE RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP EXTEND INTO TUE... CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST BUT WITH MARGINAL/WEAK
FORCING FEATURES. STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO WED... INCLUDING
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE JUST TO OUR SW.
WILL STICK WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR NOW. THE GFS/ECMWF
STILL INDICATE THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPING ENE THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME WED (WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS)...
AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/TRACK OF VORTICITY CENTERS AND THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW... WE MAY STILL SEE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IF WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY INSTABILITY...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE EVENING OF
CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS
TUE/WED ARE TRICKY AND DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE... AS A MINOR
SWING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH THE WEDGE FRONT OR LOW TRACKS WILL
GREATLY ALTER TEMPS. WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME DAMMING AIR MASS
HOLDING IN THE NW CWA... EXPECT HIGHS TUE FROM 49 NW TO 61 SE.
MINIMAL DROP TUE NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
POSSIBLE ERODING WEDGE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA... AND WILL GO
WITH LOWS OF 44-52. HIGHS 52 NW TO 61 SE WED WITH ALL BUT POSSIBLY
THE NW CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS SHOULD THEN FALL OFF WED
EVENING/NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING AND COOL AIR ADVECTION... TO
LOWS OF 33-38. CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRI APPEAR FAIR WITH A WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHERN-STREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CHRISTMAS DAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND MID TO UPPER
50S FRI. LOWS IN THE 30S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 191959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN UNTIL A STRONGER
LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE
FROM A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME
NORTHEASTERLIES ALONG THE COAST AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S AS HEATING BEGINS TO WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES TO WARM WITH FORECASTED MAX TEMPS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST AS OBSERVED TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THERE.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOME
CEILINGS FIRST APPEARING ABOVE 15 KFT BUT THEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 KFT OR JUST BELOW AROUND DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ANY PRECIPIATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION FOR THE LOW IS CONCERNED...CLOUDS WILL HOLD
OFF THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...AND THUS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECT HERE WITH VALUES RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 30S WITH SOME COLDER POCKETS POSSIBLE IN THE RURAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM OUR SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
TRENDED THIS SYSTEM TO BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO THIS AND
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED BACK ON POPS AND QPF FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CHANCES WITH SOME BRIEF LIKELIES ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
SEVERELY HANDICAPS ANY THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRIAD THAT WAS
POTENTIALLY BEING SHOWN BY PRIOR MODEL RUNS. FIRST...THERE MAY NOT
EVEN BE PRECIPIATION AT ALL IN THIS AREA. IF PRECIPIATION DOES IN
FACT OCCUR HERE...THE BEST OMEGA IS IN THE 700 MB LEVEL AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHES ABOVE THAT. THUS CURRENT MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH
WAS THE MOST BULLISH ON THE SITUATION...NEARLY SATURATES IN THE 800-
600 MB LEVEL BUT LESS SO ABOVE THAT INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
INCLUDE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE MIX AND CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT
ANY FALLING PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID.

THE CONCLUDING UPSHOT OF THE DAY WILL BE AN OVERCAST DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
STARTING TO MOVE INTO POSITION TO EVENTUALLY FORM A CAD WEDGE BUT
INITIALLY WILL HELP AID SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH TAKE OVER BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD
BE A WARMER DAY THAN SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING SOUTHERN LOW WILL
BRING DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 40 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPIATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT: COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR SERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SSW THROUGH CENTRAL NC
SUN NIGHT/MON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
TRACK EAST AND DIG THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS SUN... THEN KICK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/MIDSOUTH/SRN APP
REGION... DAMPENING IN THE PROCESS AS NRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO
DIG AND PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL WEAKENING WAVE AND RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
HELP SATURATE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FIRST SUN NIGHT... THEN AS THE
700-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 290K-295K...
EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SSW AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES. MODEL TIMING AND THEIR RECENT SLOWING TRENDS SUGGEST A
MID EVENING ONSET TIME IN THE SW... SPREADING NNE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE MORE STEEPLY
SLOPED PORTION OF THE COLD DOME SURFACE OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND
WILL RAISE POPS HERE TO LIKELY... AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE NEEDED STARTING OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. HIGH
COVERAGE (70-80%) OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... AND INTO NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH
PRECIP THEN TAPERING DOWN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LESS OVER CENTRAL NC
FROM SW TO NE MON AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE RETREATING MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE... RESULTING IN
TOP-DOWN DRYING. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN COOL/MOIST AND STABLE... AS THE DAMMING
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM... REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OR SOUNDS LATE MON. WILL RETAIN
OVERCAST SKIES (LOW CLOUDS PLUS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE DIGGING
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH YIELDS INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW INTO NC)
AND LOW CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN
THIS REGIME. THICKNESSES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL-LIQUID
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY GIVEN AN
EXPECTED STRONG COLD DOME... AND WILL NOT INDICATE A DRASTIC WARMUP
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT... ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BUDGE
LITTLE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT. LOWS SUN NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S... AND HIGHS MON IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER
50S (ALTHOUGH THIS DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS MAY BE TOO LARGE IF WE SEE
STEADY PRECIP INTO THE WEDGE ALL DAY LONG). LOWS MON NIGHT FROM
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN FOR
MID WEEK... ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO QUIETER WEATHER APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

WE`LL START THIS PERIOD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHIFTING EASTWARD YET STILL EXTENDING SE DOWN
THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE THE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE SITS
OVER COASTAL NC EXTENDING BACK THROUGH NRN GA TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUE... THEN DRIFT NE AS ITS LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES WED. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEDGE
FRONT WELL INLAND TUE EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW PUSHES INTO SW NC
(MORE PROMINENT ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS). TRYING TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION OF WEDGE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER-STAGE DAMMING
EVENTS IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT... GIVEN THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE
PUSHING OVER AND JUST OFF THE MARITIMES BUT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
STRENGTH NEAR 1030 MB. WILL FOLLOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANINGS OF
SUCH EVENTS AND KEEP A COOL STABLE REGIME IN THE NW PIEDMONT... AS
IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS. WE SHOULD SEE THE RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP EXTEND INTO TUE... CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST BUT WITH MARGINAL/WEAK
FORCING FEATURES. STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO WED... INCLUDING
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE JUST TO OUR SW.
WILL STICK WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR NOW. THE GFS/ECMWF
STILL INDICATE THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPING ENE THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME WED (WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS)...
AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/TRACK OF VORTICITY CENTERS AND THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW... WE MAY STILL SEE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IF WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY INSTABILITY...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE EVENING OF
CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS
TUE/WED ARE TRICKY AND DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE... AS A MINOR
SWING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH THE WEDGE FRONT OR LOW TRACKS WILL
GREATLY ALTER TEMPS. WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME DAMMING AIR MASS
HOLDING IN THE NW CWA... EXPECT HIGHS TUE FROM 49 NW TO 61 SE.
MINIMAL DROP TUE NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
POSSIBLE ERODING WEDGE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA... AND WILL GO
WITH LOWS OF 44-52. HIGHS 52 NW TO 61 SE WED WITH ALL BUT POSSIBLY
THE NW CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS SHOULD THEN FALL OFF WED
EVENING/NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING AND COOL AIR ADVECTION... TO
LOWS OF 33-38. CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRI APPEAR FAIR WITH A WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHERN-STREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CHRISTMAS DAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND MID TO UPPER
50S FRI. LOWS IN THE 30S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 191959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN UNTIL A STRONGER
LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE
FROM A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME
NORTHEASTERLIES ALONG THE COAST AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S AS HEATING BEGINS TO WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES TO WARM WITH FORECASTED MAX TEMPS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST AS OBSERVED TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THERE.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOME
CEILINGS FIRST APPEARING ABOVE 15 KFT BUT THEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 KFT OR JUST BELOW AROUND DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ANY PRECIPIATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION FOR THE LOW IS CONCERNED...CLOUDS WILL HOLD
OFF THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...AND THUS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECT HERE WITH VALUES RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 30S WITH SOME COLDER POCKETS POSSIBLE IN THE RURAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM OUR SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
TRENDED THIS SYSTEM TO BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO THIS AND
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED BACK ON POPS AND QPF FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CHANCES WITH SOME BRIEF LIKELIES ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
SEVERELY HANDICAPS ANY THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRIAD THAT WAS
POTENTIALLY BEING SHOWN BY PRIOR MODEL RUNS. FIRST...THERE MAY NOT
EVEN BE PRECIPIATION AT ALL IN THIS AREA. IF PRECIPIATION DOES IN
FACT OCCUR HERE...THE BEST OMEGA IS IN THE 700 MB LEVEL AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHES ABOVE THAT. THUS CURRENT MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH
WAS THE MOST BULLISH ON THE SITUATION...NEARLY SATURATES IN THE 800-
600 MB LEVEL BUT LESS SO ABOVE THAT INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
INCLUDE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE MIX AND CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT
ANY FALLING PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID.

THE CONCLUDING UPSHOT OF THE DAY WILL BE AN OVERCAST DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
STARTING TO MOVE INTO POSITION TO EVENTUALLY FORM A CAD WEDGE BUT
INITIALLY WILL HELP AID SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH TAKE OVER BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD
BE A WARMER DAY THAN SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING SOUTHERN LOW WILL
BRING DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 40 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPIATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT: COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR SERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SSW THROUGH CENTRAL NC
SUN NIGHT/MON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
TRACK EAST AND DIG THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS SUN... THEN KICK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/MIDSOUTH/SRN APP
REGION... DAMPENING IN THE PROCESS AS NRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO
DIG AND PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL WEAKENING WAVE AND RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
HELP SATURATE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FIRST SUN NIGHT... THEN AS THE
700-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 290K-295K...
EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SSW AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES. MODEL TIMING AND THEIR RECENT SLOWING TRENDS SUGGEST A
MID EVENING ONSET TIME IN THE SW... SPREADING NNE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE MORE STEEPLY
SLOPED PORTION OF THE COLD DOME SURFACE OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND
WILL RAISE POPS HERE TO LIKELY... AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE NEEDED STARTING OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. HIGH
COVERAGE (70-80%) OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... AND INTO NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH
PRECIP THEN TAPERING DOWN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LESS OVER CENTRAL NC
FROM SW TO NE MON AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE RETREATING MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE... RESULTING IN
TOP-DOWN DRYING. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN COOL/MOIST AND STABLE... AS THE DAMMING
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM... REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OR SOUNDS LATE MON. WILL RETAIN
OVERCAST SKIES (LOW CLOUDS PLUS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE DIGGING
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH YIELDS INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW INTO NC)
AND LOW CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN
THIS REGIME. THICKNESSES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL-LIQUID
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY GIVEN AN
EXPECTED STRONG COLD DOME... AND WILL NOT INDICATE A DRASTIC WARMUP
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT... ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BUDGE
LITTLE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT. LOWS SUN NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S... AND HIGHS MON IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER
50S (ALTHOUGH THIS DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS MAY BE TOO LARGE IF WE SEE
STEADY PRECIP INTO THE WEDGE ALL DAY LONG). LOWS MON NIGHT FROM
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN FOR
MID WEEK... ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO QUIETER WEATHER APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

WE`LL START THIS PERIOD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHIFTING EASTWARD YET STILL EXTENDING SE DOWN
THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE THE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE SITS
OVER COASTAL NC EXTENDING BACK THROUGH NRN GA TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUE... THEN DRIFT NE AS ITS LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES WED. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEDGE
FRONT WELL INLAND TUE EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW PUSHES INTO SW NC
(MORE PROMINENT ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS). TRYING TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION OF WEDGE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER-STAGE DAMMING
EVENTS IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT... GIVEN THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE
PUSHING OVER AND JUST OFF THE MARITIMES BUT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
STRENGTH NEAR 1030 MB. WILL FOLLOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANINGS OF
SUCH EVENTS AND KEEP A COOL STABLE REGIME IN THE NW PIEDMONT... AS
IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS. WE SHOULD SEE THE RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP EXTEND INTO TUE... CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST BUT WITH MARGINAL/WEAK
FORCING FEATURES. STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO WED... INCLUDING
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE JUST TO OUR SW.
WILL STICK WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR NOW. THE GFS/ECMWF
STILL INDICATE THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPING ENE THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME WED (WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS)...
AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/TRACK OF VORTICITY CENTERS AND THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW... WE MAY STILL SEE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IF WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY INSTABILITY...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE EVENING OF
CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS
TUE/WED ARE TRICKY AND DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE... AS A MINOR
SWING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH THE WEDGE FRONT OR LOW TRACKS WILL
GREATLY ALTER TEMPS. WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME DAMMING AIR MASS
HOLDING IN THE NW CWA... EXPECT HIGHS TUE FROM 49 NW TO 61 SE.
MINIMAL DROP TUE NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
POSSIBLE ERODING WEDGE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA... AND WILL GO
WITH LOWS OF 44-52. HIGHS 52 NW TO 61 SE WED WITH ALL BUT POSSIBLY
THE NW CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS SHOULD THEN FALL OFF WED
EVENING/NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING AND COOL AIR ADVECTION... TO
LOWS OF 33-38. CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRI APPEAR FAIR WITH A WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHERN-STREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CHRISTMAS DAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND MID TO UPPER
50S FRI. LOWS IN THE 30S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 191959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN UNTIL A STRONGER
LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE
FROM A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME
NORTHEASTERLIES ALONG THE COAST AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S AS HEATING BEGINS TO WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES TO WARM WITH FORECASTED MAX TEMPS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST AS OBSERVED TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THERE.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOME
CEILINGS FIRST APPEARING ABOVE 15 KFT BUT THEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 KFT OR JUST BELOW AROUND DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ANY PRECIPIATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION FOR THE LOW IS CONCERNED...CLOUDS WILL HOLD
OFF THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...AND THUS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECT HERE WITH VALUES RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 30S WITH SOME COLDER POCKETS POSSIBLE IN THE RURAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM OUR SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
TRENDED THIS SYSTEM TO BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO THIS AND
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED BACK ON POPS AND QPF FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CHANCES WITH SOME BRIEF LIKELIES ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
SEVERELY HANDICAPS ANY THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRIAD THAT WAS
POTENTIALLY BEING SHOWN BY PRIOR MODEL RUNS. FIRST...THERE MAY NOT
EVEN BE PRECIPIATION AT ALL IN THIS AREA. IF PRECIPIATION DOES IN
FACT OCCUR HERE...THE BEST OMEGA IS IN THE 700 MB LEVEL AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHES ABOVE THAT. THUS CURRENT MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH
WAS THE MOST BULLISH ON THE SITUATION...NEARLY SATURATES IN THE 800-
600 MB LEVEL BUT LESS SO ABOVE THAT INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
INCLUDE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE MIX AND CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT
ANY FALLING PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID.

THE CONCLUDING UPSHOT OF THE DAY WILL BE AN OVERCAST DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
STARTING TO MOVE INTO POSITION TO EVENTUALLY FORM A CAD WEDGE BUT
INITIALLY WILL HELP AID SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH TAKE OVER BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD
BE A WARMER DAY THAN SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING SOUTHERN LOW WILL
BRING DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 40 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPIATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT: COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR SERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SSW THROUGH CENTRAL NC
SUN NIGHT/MON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
TRACK EAST AND DIG THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS SUN... THEN KICK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/MIDSOUTH/SRN APP
REGION... DAMPENING IN THE PROCESS AS NRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO
DIG AND PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL WEAKENING WAVE AND RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
HELP SATURATE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FIRST SUN NIGHT... THEN AS THE
700-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 290K-295K...
EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SSW AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES. MODEL TIMING AND THEIR RECENT SLOWING TRENDS SUGGEST A
MID EVENING ONSET TIME IN THE SW... SPREADING NNE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE MORE STEEPLY
SLOPED PORTION OF THE COLD DOME SURFACE OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND
WILL RAISE POPS HERE TO LIKELY... AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE NEEDED STARTING OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. HIGH
COVERAGE (70-80%) OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... AND INTO NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH
PRECIP THEN TAPERING DOWN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LESS OVER CENTRAL NC
FROM SW TO NE MON AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE RETREATING MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE... RESULTING IN
TOP-DOWN DRYING. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN COOL/MOIST AND STABLE... AS THE DAMMING
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM... REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OR SOUNDS LATE MON. WILL RETAIN
OVERCAST SKIES (LOW CLOUDS PLUS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE DIGGING
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH YIELDS INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW INTO NC)
AND LOW CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN
THIS REGIME. THICKNESSES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL-LIQUID
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY GIVEN AN
EXPECTED STRONG COLD DOME... AND WILL NOT INDICATE A DRASTIC WARMUP
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT... ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BUDGE
LITTLE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT. LOWS SUN NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S... AND HIGHS MON IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER
50S (ALTHOUGH THIS DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS MAY BE TOO LARGE IF WE SEE
STEADY PRECIP INTO THE WEDGE ALL DAY LONG). LOWS MON NIGHT FROM
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN FOR
MID WEEK... ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO QUIETER WEATHER APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

WE`LL START THIS PERIOD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHIFTING EASTWARD YET STILL EXTENDING SE DOWN
THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE THE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE SITS
OVER COASTAL NC EXTENDING BACK THROUGH NRN GA TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUE... THEN DRIFT NE AS ITS LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES WED. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEDGE
FRONT WELL INLAND TUE EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW PUSHES INTO SW NC
(MORE PROMINENT ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS). TRYING TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION OF WEDGE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER-STAGE DAMMING
EVENTS IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT... GIVEN THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE
PUSHING OVER AND JUST OFF THE MARITIMES BUT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
STRENGTH NEAR 1030 MB. WILL FOLLOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANINGS OF
SUCH EVENTS AND KEEP A COOL STABLE REGIME IN THE NW PIEDMONT... AS
IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS. WE SHOULD SEE THE RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP EXTEND INTO TUE... CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST BUT WITH MARGINAL/WEAK
FORCING FEATURES. STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO WED... INCLUDING
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE JUST TO OUR SW.
WILL STICK WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR NOW. THE GFS/ECMWF
STILL INDICATE THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPING ENE THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME WED (WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS)...
AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/TRACK OF VORTICITY CENTERS AND THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW... WE MAY STILL SEE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IF WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY INSTABILITY...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE EVENING OF
CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS
TUE/WED ARE TRICKY AND DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE... AS A MINOR
SWING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH THE WEDGE FRONT OR LOW TRACKS WILL
GREATLY ALTER TEMPS. WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME DAMMING AIR MASS
HOLDING IN THE NW CWA... EXPECT HIGHS TUE FROM 49 NW TO 61 SE.
MINIMAL DROP TUE NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
POSSIBLE ERODING WEDGE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA... AND WILL GO
WITH LOWS OF 44-52. HIGHS 52 NW TO 61 SE WED WITH ALL BUT POSSIBLY
THE NW CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS SHOULD THEN FALL OFF WED
EVENING/NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING AND COOL AIR ADVECTION... TO
LOWS OF 33-38. CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRI APPEAR FAIR WITH A WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHERN-STREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CHRISTMAS DAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND MID TO UPPER
50S FRI. LOWS IN THE 30S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 191959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN UNTIL A STRONGER
LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE
FROM A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST.
MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME
NORTHEASTERLIES ALONG THE COAST AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S AS HEATING BEGINS TO WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES TO WARM WITH FORECASTED MAX TEMPS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST AS OBSERVED TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THERE.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOME
CEILINGS FIRST APPEARING ABOVE 15 KFT BUT THEN GRADUALLY MAKING
THEIR WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 KFT OR JUST BELOW AROUND DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ANY PRECIPIATION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION FOR THE LOW IS CONCERNED...CLOUDS WILL HOLD
OFF THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...AND THUS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECT HERE WITH VALUES RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 30S WITH SOME COLDER POCKETS POSSIBLE IN THE RURAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM OUR SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
TRENDED THIS SYSTEM TO BE DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO THIS AND
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED BACK ON POPS AND QPF FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CHANCES WITH SOME BRIEF LIKELIES ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO
SEVERELY HANDICAPS ANY THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRIAD THAT WAS
POTENTIALLY BEING SHOWN BY PRIOR MODEL RUNS. FIRST...THERE MAY NOT
EVEN BE PRECIPIATION AT ALL IN THIS AREA. IF PRECIPIATION DOES IN
FACT OCCUR HERE...THE BEST OMEGA IS IN THE 700 MB LEVEL AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHES ABOVE THAT. THUS CURRENT MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH
WAS THE MOST BULLISH ON THE SITUATION...NEARLY SATURATES IN THE 800-
600 MB LEVEL BUT LESS SO ABOVE THAT INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
INCLUDE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE MIX AND CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT
ANY FALLING PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID.

THE CONCLUDING UPSHOT OF THE DAY WILL BE AN OVERCAST DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
STARTING TO MOVE INTO POSITION TO EVENTUALLY FORM A CAD WEDGE BUT
INITIALLY WILL HELP AID SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH TAKE OVER BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD
BE A WARMER DAY THAN SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING SOUTHERN LOW WILL
BRING DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 40 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPIATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT: COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR SERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SSW THROUGH CENTRAL NC
SUN NIGHT/MON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
TRACK EAST AND DIG THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS SUN... THEN KICK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/MIDSOUTH/SRN APP
REGION... DAMPENING IN THE PROCESS AS NRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO
DIG AND PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL WEAKENING WAVE AND RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
HELP SATURATE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FIRST SUN NIGHT... THEN AS THE
700-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 290K-295K...
EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SSW AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES. MODEL TIMING AND THEIR RECENT SLOWING TRENDS SUGGEST A
MID EVENING ONSET TIME IN THE SW... SPREADING NNE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE MORE STEEPLY
SLOPED PORTION OF THE COLD DOME SURFACE OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND
WILL RAISE POPS HERE TO LIKELY... AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE NEEDED STARTING OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. HIGH
COVERAGE (70-80%) OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... AND INTO NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH
PRECIP THEN TAPERING DOWN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LESS OVER CENTRAL NC
FROM SW TO NE MON AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE RETREATING MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE... RESULTING IN
TOP-DOWN DRYING. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN COOL/MOIST AND STABLE... AS THE DAMMING
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM... REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OR SOUNDS LATE MON. WILL RETAIN
OVERCAST SKIES (LOW CLOUDS PLUS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE DIGGING
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH YIELDS INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW INTO NC)
AND LOW CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN
THIS REGIME. THICKNESSES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL-LIQUID
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY GIVEN AN
EXPECTED STRONG COLD DOME... AND WILL NOT INDICATE A DRASTIC WARMUP
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT... ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BUDGE
LITTLE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT. LOWS SUN NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S... AND HIGHS MON IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER
50S (ALTHOUGH THIS DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS MAY BE TOO LARGE IF WE SEE
STEADY PRECIP INTO THE WEDGE ALL DAY LONG). LOWS MON NIGHT FROM
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN FOR
MID WEEK... ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO QUIETER WEATHER APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

WE`LL START THIS PERIOD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHIFTING EASTWARD YET STILL EXTENDING SE DOWN
THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE THE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE SITS
OVER COASTAL NC EXTENDING BACK THROUGH NRN GA TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUE... THEN DRIFT NE AS ITS LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES WED. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEDGE
FRONT WELL INLAND TUE EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW PUSHES INTO SW NC
(MORE PROMINENT ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS). TRYING TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION OF WEDGE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER-STAGE DAMMING
EVENTS IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT... GIVEN THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE
PUSHING OVER AND JUST OFF THE MARITIMES BUT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
STRENGTH NEAR 1030 MB. WILL FOLLOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANINGS OF
SUCH EVENTS AND KEEP A COOL STABLE REGIME IN THE NW PIEDMONT... AS
IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS. WE SHOULD SEE THE RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP EXTEND INTO TUE... CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST BUT WITH MARGINAL/WEAK
FORCING FEATURES. STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO WED... INCLUDING
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE JUST TO OUR SW.
WILL STICK WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR NOW. THE GFS/ECMWF
STILL INDICATE THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPING ENE THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME WED (WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS)...
AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/TRACK OF VORTICITY CENTERS AND THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW... WE MAY STILL SEE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IF WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY INSTABILITY...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE EVENING OF
CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS
TUE/WED ARE TRICKY AND DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE... AS A MINOR
SWING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH THE WEDGE FRONT OR LOW TRACKS WILL
GREATLY ALTER TEMPS. WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME DAMMING AIR MASS
HOLDING IN THE NW CWA... EXPECT HIGHS TUE FROM 49 NW TO 61 SE.
MINIMAL DROP TUE NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
POSSIBLE ERODING WEDGE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA... AND WILL GO
WITH LOWS OF 44-52. HIGHS 52 NW TO 61 SE WED WITH ALL BUT POSSIBLY
THE NW CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS SHOULD THEN FALL OFF WED
EVENING/NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING AND COOL AIR ADVECTION... TO
LOWS OF 33-38. CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRI APPEAR FAIR WITH A WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHERN-STREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CHRISTMAS DAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND MID TO UPPER
50S FRI. LOWS IN THE 30S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 191925
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
225 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SE STATES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY INITIALLY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE AREA LATER ON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHUD ALSO HELP LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S WITH A BIT COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MILDER AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPAWN WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SATURDAY. SUBTLE LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WITH PERHAPS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO
BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON BUT CANT
RULE OUT PRECIP ANYTIME OF DAY. THE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD
COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RISES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS COLUMN MOISTENING INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABV VFR LEVELS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. ANY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY SHUD HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY ADVERSE EFFECT ON VISIBILITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB- VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE AND VEER SLIGHTLY THRU SATURDAY
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. 2-3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD SLOWLY TO 3-4 FT ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK
BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES
ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT. WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 191925
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
225 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL MOVE THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION AND INTO SE STATES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY INITIALLY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE AREA LATER ON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHUD ALSO HELP LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S WITH A BIT COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MILDER AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPAWN WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SATURDAY. SUBTLE LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WITH PERHAPS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO
BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON BUT CANT
RULE OUT PRECIP ANYTIME OF DAY. THE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD
COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RISES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS COLUMN MOISTENING INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABV VFR LEVELS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. ANY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY SHUD HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY ADVERSE EFFECT ON VISIBILITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB- VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL INCREASE AND VEER SLIGHTLY THRU SATURDAY
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. 2-3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD SLOWLY TO 3-4 FT ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK
BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES
ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT. WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD






000
FXUS62 KRAH 191904
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY... AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY... WHILE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY... WHILE A STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
GULF COAST REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 943 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...AS EXPECTED...EARLIER CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY OVER CENTRAL NC. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COULD BEGIN TO
CREEP IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS OR MINUS 5 KT WINDS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THESE COULD VEER AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. -ELLIS

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT: COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR SERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SSW THROUGH CENTRAL NC
SUN NIGHT/MON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
TRACK EAST AND DIG THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS SUN... THEN KICK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/MIDSOUTH/SRN APP
REGION... DAMPENING IN THE PROCESS AS NRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO
DIG AND PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL WEAKENING WAVE AND RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
HELP SATURATE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FIRST SUN NIGHT... THEN AS THE
700-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 290K-295K...
EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SSW AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES. MODEL TIMING AND THEIR RECENT SLOWING TRENDS SUGGEST A
MID EVENING ONSET TIME IN THE SW... SPREADING NNE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE MORE STEEPLY
SLOPED PORTION OF THE COLD DOME SURFACE OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND
WILL RAISE POPS HERE TO LIKELY... AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE NEEDED STARTING OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. HIGH
COVERAGE (70-80%) OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... AND INTO NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH
PRECIP THEN TAPERING DOWN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LESS OVER CENTRAL NC
FROM SW TO NE MON AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE RETREATING MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE... RESULTING IN
TOP-DOWN DRYING. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN COOL/MOIST AND STABLE... AS THE DAMMING
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM... REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OR SOUNDS LATE MON. WILL RETAIN
OVERCAST SKIES (LOW CLOUDS PLUS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE DIGGING
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH YIELDS INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW INTO NC)
AND LOW CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN
THIS REGIME. THICKNESSES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL-LIQUID
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY GIVEN AN
EXPECTED STRONG COLD DOME... AND WILL NOT INDICATE A DRASTIC WARMUP
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT... ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BUDGE
LITTLE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT. LOWS SUN NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S... AND HIGHS MON IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER
50S (ALTHOUGH THIS DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS MAY BE TOO LARGE IF WE SEE
STEADY PRECIP INTO THE WEDGE ALL DAY LONG). LOWS MON NIGHT FROM
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN FOR
MID WEEK... ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO QUIETER WEATHER APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

WE`LL START THIS PERIOD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHIFTING EASTWARD YET STILL EXTENDING SE DOWN
THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE THE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE SITS
OVER COASTAL NC EXTENDING BACK THROUGH NRN GA TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUE... THEN DRIFT NE AS ITS LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES WED. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEDGE
FRONT WELL INLAND TUE EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW PUSHES INTO SW NC
(MORE PROMINENT ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS). TRYING TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION OF WEDGE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER-STAGE DAMMING
EVENTS IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT... GIVEN THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE
PUSHING OVER AND JUST OFF THE MARITIMES BUT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
STRENGTH NEAR 1030 MB. WILL FOLLOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANINGS OF
SUCH EVENTS AND KEEP A COOL STABLE REGIME IN THE NW PIEDMONT... AS
IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS. WE SHOULD SEE THE RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP EXTEND INTO TUE... CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST BUT WITH MARGINAL/WEAK
FORCING FEATURES. STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO WED... INCLUDING
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE JUST TO OUR SW.
WILL STICK WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR NOW. THE GFS/ECMWF
STILL INDICATE THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPING ENE THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME WED (WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS)...
AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/TRACK OF VORTICITY CENTERS AND THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW... WE MAY STILL SEE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IF WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY INSTABILITY...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE EVENING OF
CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS
TUE/WED ARE TRICKY AND DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE... AS A MINOR
SWING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH THE WEDGE FRONT OR LOW TRACKS WILL
GREATLY ALTER TEMPS. WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME DAMMING AIR MASS
HOLDING IN THE NW CWA... EXPECT HIGHS TUE FROM 49 NW TO 61 SE.
MINIMAL DROP TUE NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
POSSIBLE ERODING WEDGE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA... AND WILL GO
WITH LOWS OF 44-52. HIGHS 52 NW TO 61 SE WED WITH ALL BUT POSSIBLY
THE NW CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS SHOULD THEN FALL OFF WED
EVENING/NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING AND COOL AIR ADVECTION... TO
LOWS OF 33-38. CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRI APPEAR FAIR WITH A WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHERN-STREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CHRISTMAS DAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND MID TO UPPER
50S FRI. LOWS IN THE 30S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 191904
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY... AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY... WHILE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY... WHILE A STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
GULF COAST REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 943 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...AS EXPECTED...EARLIER CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY OVER CENTRAL NC. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COULD BEGIN TO
CREEP IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS OR MINUS 5 KT WINDS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THESE COULD VEER AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. -ELLIS

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT: COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FAR SERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SSW THROUGH CENTRAL NC
SUN NIGHT/MON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
TRACK EAST AND DIG THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS SUN... THEN KICK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/MIDSOUTH/SRN APP
REGION... DAMPENING IN THE PROCESS AS NRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO
DIG AND PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL WEAKENING WAVE AND RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS
HELP SATURATE THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FIRST SUN NIGHT... THEN AS THE
700-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND 290K-295K...
EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SSW AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES. MODEL TIMING AND THEIR RECENT SLOWING TRENDS SUGGEST A
MID EVENING ONSET TIME IN THE SW... SPREADING NNE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
THE BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE MORE STEEPLY
SLOPED PORTION OF THE COLD DOME SURFACE OVER THE PIEDMONT... AND
WILL RAISE POPS HERE TO LIKELY... AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE...
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE NEEDED STARTING OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. HIGH
COVERAGE (70-80%) OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MON MORNING... AND INTO NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON... WITH
PRECIP THEN TAPERING DOWN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LESS OVER CENTRAL NC
FROM SW TO NE MON AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES FROM THE SW
BEHIND THE RETREATING MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE... RESULTING IN
TOP-DOWN DRYING. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN COOL/MOIST AND STABLE... AS THE DAMMING
WEDGE SHOULD HOLD FIRM... REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OR SOUNDS LATE MON. WILL RETAIN
OVERCAST SKIES (LOW CLOUDS PLUS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE DIGGING
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH YIELDS INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW INTO NC)
AND LOW CHANCE POPS MON NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN
THIS REGIME. THICKNESSES AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL-LIQUID
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED WEDGE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY GIVEN AN
EXPECTED STRONG COLD DOME... AND WILL NOT INDICATE A DRASTIC WARMUP
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT... ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BUDGE
LITTLE FROM MON TO MON NIGHT GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT. LOWS SUN NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S... AND HIGHS MON IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER
50S (ALTHOUGH THIS DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS MAY BE TOO LARGE IF WE SEE
STEADY PRECIP INTO THE WEDGE ALL DAY LONG). LOWS MON NIGHT FROM
AROUND 40 NW TO UPPER 40S SE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN FOR
MID WEEK... ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO QUIETER WEATHER APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

WE`LL START THIS PERIOD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHIFTING EASTWARD YET STILL EXTENDING SE DOWN
THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NC... WHILE THE COASTAL/WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE SITS
OVER COASTAL NC EXTENDING BACK THROUGH NRN GA TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUE... THEN DRIFT NE AS ITS LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES WED. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEDGE
FRONT WELL INLAND TUE EVENING/NIGHT... AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW PUSHES INTO SW NC
(MORE PROMINENT ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS). TRYING TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION OF WEDGE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER-STAGE DAMMING
EVENTS IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT... GIVEN THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE
PUSHING OVER AND JUST OFF THE MARITIMES BUT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
STRENGTH NEAR 1030 MB. WILL FOLLOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANINGS OF
SUCH EVENTS AND KEEP A COOL STABLE REGIME IN THE NW PIEDMONT... AS
IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS. WE SHOULD SEE THE RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP EXTEND INTO TUE... CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST BUT WITH MARGINAL/WEAK
FORCING FEATURES. STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO WED... INCLUDING
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE JUST TO OUR SW.
WILL STICK WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR NOW. THE GFS/ECMWF
STILL INDICATE THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPING ENE THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME WED (WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS)...
AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/TRACK OF VORTICITY CENTERS AND THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW... WE MAY STILL SEE A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED IF WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY INSTABILITY...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THIS TIME
FRAME APPROACHES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE EVENING OF
CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD KEEP
SOME CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS
TUE/WED ARE TRICKY AND DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE... AS A MINOR
SWING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH THE WEDGE FRONT OR LOW TRACKS WILL
GREATLY ALTER TEMPS. WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME DAMMING AIR MASS
HOLDING IN THE NW CWA... EXPECT HIGHS TUE FROM 49 NW TO 61 SE.
MINIMAL DROP TUE NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
POSSIBLE ERODING WEDGE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA... AND WILL GO
WITH LOWS OF 44-52. HIGHS 52 NW TO 61 SE WED WITH ALL BUT POSSIBLY
THE NW CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS SHOULD THEN FALL OFF WED
EVENING/NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING AND COOL AIR ADVECTION... TO
LOWS OF 33-38. CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRI APPEAR FAIR WITH A WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHERN-STREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CHRISTMAS DAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND MID TO UPPER
50S FRI. LOWS IN THE 30S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 191758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1258 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 943 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...AS EXPECTED...EARLIER CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY OVER CENTRAL NC. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COULD BEGIN TO
CREEP IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS OR MINUS 5 KT WINDS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THESE COULD VEER AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. -ELLIS

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SPREADING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. WITH A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS IT
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT WE WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED
DAMMING EVENT DEVELOP.... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND HARDLY MOVING FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...
THINK WE COULD SEE OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY... BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER EAST AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NC ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END... WITH
ONLY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR E/SE.

A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE FORMED A DEEP TROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT... WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AS IT STANDS NOW...
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THOUGH). QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM THOUGH... AS FINER DETAILS LIKE
THIS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETREATING CAD BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD BE A HSLC TYPE OF SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR IT IS QUITE HARD TO GET THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT... WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAD
BOUNDARY RETREATS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 60S SE. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL NOT FALL MUCH... WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE/E. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WITH A RETURN TO
QUITE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 191758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1258 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 943 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...AS EXPECTED...EARLIER CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY OVER CENTRAL NC. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COULD BEGIN TO
CREEP IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS OR MINUS 5 KT WINDS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THESE COULD VEER AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. -ELLIS

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SPREADING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. WITH A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS IT
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT WE WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED
DAMMING EVENT DEVELOP.... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND HARDLY MOVING FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...
THINK WE COULD SEE OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY... BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER EAST AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NC ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END... WITH
ONLY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR E/SE.

A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE FORMED A DEEP TROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT... WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AS IT STANDS NOW...
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THOUGH). QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM THOUGH... AS FINER DETAILS LIKE
THIS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETREATING CAD BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD BE A HSLC TYPE OF SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR IT IS QUITE HARD TO GET THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT... WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAD
BOUNDARY RETREATS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 60S SE. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL NOT FALL MUCH... WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE/E. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WITH A RETURN TO
QUITE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARYING COMPONENTS OF NORTHERLY WIND AT
ROUGHLY 5 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS STARTING OUT IN THE 10-15 KFT RANGE. NEAR
DAYBREAK THESE CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN...MOST LIKELY INTO
THE 3-5 KFT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
GUSTING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTH...MAINLY
AT KFAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY PRECIPITATION. IF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN WITH THE WAVE...CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM: BEYOND THE POTENTIAL RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY
WITH A COASTAL LOW AND SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING. AFTER THAT
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 191751
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN A DEG
OR TWO AS NEAR FULL SUN LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50 TO 55 DEG RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS COLUMN MOISTENING INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABV VFR LEVELS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. ANY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY SHUD HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY ADVERSE EFFECT ON VISIBILITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND BECOME
CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY
10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT AT THAT SPEED THRU TONIGHT.
SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY
SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 191751
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN A DEG
OR TWO AS NEAR FULL SUN LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50 TO 55 DEG RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER AS COLUMN MOISTENING INCREASES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABV VFR LEVELS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. ANY
LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY SHUD HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY ADVERSE EFFECT ON VISIBILITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND BECOME
CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY
10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT AT THAT SPEED THRU TONIGHT.
SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY
SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KILM 191737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BUT NO RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY
SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FELT ON SAT.

MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY THIS EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN
WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
STILL...WE EXPECT THE CURVE TO LEVEL OFF WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL N TO AROUND 60 FAR S. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...BUT WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43/RJD












000
FXUS62 KILM 191737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BUT NO RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY
SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FELT ON SAT.

MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY THIS EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN
WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
STILL...WE EXPECT THE CURVE TO LEVEL OFF WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL N TO AROUND 60 FAR S. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...BUT WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43/RJD












000
FXUS62 KILM 191737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BUT NO RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY
SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FELT ON SAT.

MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY THIS EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN
WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
STILL...WE EXPECT THE CURVE TO LEVEL OFF WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL N TO AROUND 60 FAR S. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...BUT WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43/RJD












000
FXUS62 KILM 191737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BUT NO RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY
SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FELT ON SAT.

MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY THIS EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN
WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
STILL...WE EXPECT THE CURVE TO LEVEL OFF WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL N TO AROUND 60 FAR S. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...BUT WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43/RJD












000
FXUS62 KILM 191530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BUT NO RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE
DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY
SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FELT ON SAT.

MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY THIS EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN
WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
STILL...WE EXPECT THE CURVE TO LEVEL OFF WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL N TO AROUND 60 FAR S. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL DROP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S...BUT WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MODERATE. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT...
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43









000
FXUS62 KMHX 191511
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN A DEG
OR TWO AS NEAR FULL SUN LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50 TO 55 DEG RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES REST OF THE DAY. PRED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD HOLD
OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND BECOME
CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY
10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT AT THAT SPEED THRU TONIGHT.
SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY
SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/RF/CQD
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 191511
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN A DEG
OR TWO AS NEAR FULL SUN LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50 TO 55 DEG RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES REST OF THE DAY. PRED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD HOLD
OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND BECOME
CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY
10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT AT THAT SPEED THRU TONIGHT.
SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY
SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/RF/CQD
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 191511
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN A DEG
OR TWO AS NEAR FULL SUN LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50 TO 55 DEG RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES REST OF THE DAY. PRED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD HOLD
OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND BECOME
CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY
10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT AT THAT SPEED THRU TONIGHT.
SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY
SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/RF/CQD
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 191511
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN A DEG
OR TWO AS NEAR FULL SUN LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 50 TO 55 DEG RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES REST OF THE DAY. PRED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD HOLD
OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND BECOME
CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY
10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT AT THAT SPEED THRU TONIGHT.
SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY
SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/RF/CQD
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD






000
FXUS62 KRAH 191443
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
943 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 943 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...AS EXPECTED...EARLIER CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY OVER CENTRAL NC. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COULD BEGIN TO
CREEP IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS OR MINUS 5 KT WINDS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THESE COULD VEER AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. -ELLIS

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SPREADING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. WITH A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS IT
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT WE WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED
DAMMING EVENT DEVELOP.... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND HARDLY MOVING FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...
THINK WE COULD SEE OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY... BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER EAST AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NC ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END... WITH
ONLY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR E/SE.

A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE FORMED A DEEP TROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT... WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AS IT STANDS NOW...
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THOUGH). QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM THOUGH... AS FINER DETAILS LIKE
THIS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETREATING CAD BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD BE A HSLC TYPE OF SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR IT IS QUITE HARD TO GET THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT... WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAD
BOUNDARY RETREATS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 60S SE. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL NOT FALL MUCH... WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE/E. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WITH A RETURN TO
QUITE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES 6000-8000FT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 191443
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
943 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 943 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...AS EXPECTED...EARLIER CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED AND SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY OVER CENTRAL NC. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COULD BEGIN TO
CREEP IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS OR MINUS 5 KT WINDS THIS MORNING
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THESE COULD VEER AROUND TO
NORTH OR NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. -ELLIS

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SPREADING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. WITH A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS IT
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT WE WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED
DAMMING EVENT DEVELOP.... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND HARDLY MOVING FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...
THINK WE COULD SEE OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY... BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER EAST AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NC ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END... WITH
ONLY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR E/SE.

A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE FORMED A DEEP TROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT... WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AS IT STANDS NOW...
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THOUGH). QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM THOUGH... AS FINER DETAILS LIKE
THIS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETREATING CAD BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD BE A HSLC TYPE OF SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR IT IS QUITE HARD TO GET THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT... WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAD
BOUNDARY RETREATS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 60S SE. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL NOT FALL MUCH... WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE/E. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WITH A RETURN TO
QUITE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES 6000-8000FT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 191145
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...MID LVL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE AND EXPECT
MSUNNY SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

PREV DISC...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING TO THE N WILL CONT TO PRODUCE SCT
TO BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. THE MID LVLS DRY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AND EXPECT MSUNNY SKIES AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM MID/UPR 40S
NE TO LOW/MID 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...PATCHY FOG AT PGV WILL BE GONE SHORTLY OTHERWISE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PATCHY MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES REST OF THE DAY. PRED MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD
HOLD OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND
BECOME CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT LIGHT MAINLY NW WINDS
WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS LATER TODAY AND CONT AT THAT
SPEED THRU TONIGHT. SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD












000
FXUS62 KMHX 191145
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...MID LVL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE AND EXPECT
MSUNNY SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

PREV DISC...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING TO THE N WILL CONT TO PRODUCE SCT
TO BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. THE MID LVLS DRY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AND EXPECT MSUNNY SKIES AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM MID/UPR 40S
NE TO LOW/MID 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...PATCHY FOG AT PGV WILL BE GONE SHORTLY OTHERWISE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PATCHY MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES REST OF THE DAY. PRED MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD
HOLD OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND
BECOME CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT LIGHT MAINLY NW WINDS
WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS LATER TODAY AND CONT AT THAT
SPEED THRU TONIGHT. SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD












000
FXUS62 KMHX 191145
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...MID LVL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE AND EXPECT
MSUNNY SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

PREV DISC...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING TO THE N WILL CONT TO PRODUCE SCT
TO BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. THE MID LVLS DRY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AND EXPECT MSUNNY SKIES AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM MID/UPR 40S
NE TO LOW/MID 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...PATCHY FOG AT PGV WILL BE GONE SHORTLY OTHERWISE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PATCHY MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES REST OF THE DAY. PRED MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD
HOLD OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND
BECOME CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT LIGHT MAINLY NW WINDS
WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS LATER TODAY AND CONT AT THAT
SPEED THRU TONIGHT. SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD












000
FXUS62 KMHX 191145
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...MID LVL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE AND EXPECT
MSUNNY SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

PREV DISC...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING TO THE N WILL CONT TO PRODUCE SCT
TO BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. THE MID LVLS DRY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AND EXPECT MSUNNY SKIES AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM MID/UPR 40S
NE TO LOW/MID 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...PATCHY FOG AT PGV WILL BE GONE SHORTLY OTHERWISE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PATCHY MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES REST OF THE DAY. PRED MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD
HOLD OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND
BECOME CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT LIGHT MAINLY NW WINDS
WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS LATER TODAY AND CONT AT THAT
SPEED THRU TONIGHT. SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD












000
FXUS62 KRAH 191134
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
635 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK S/W RIDGE
AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE (FROM PARENT HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY)
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. MINOR 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH WEAK CAA
WILL MAINTAIN A  CHILLY AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE MID 50S SOUTHERN THIRD.

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SPREADING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. WITH A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS IT
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT WE WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED
DAMMING EVENT DEVELOP.... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND HARDLY MOVING FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...
THINK WE COULD SEE OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY... BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER EAST AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NC ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END... WITH
ONLY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR E/SE.

A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE FORMED A DEEP TROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT... WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AS IT STANDS NOW...
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THOUGH). QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM THOUGH... AS FINER DETAILS LIKE
THIS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETREATING CAD BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD BE A HSLC TYPE OF SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR IT IS QUITE HARD TO GET THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT... WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAD
BOUNDARY RETREATS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 60S SE. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL NOT FALL MUCH... WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE/E. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WITH A RETURN TO
QUITE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES 6000-8000FT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 191123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST
EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES
A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE BETTER-PERFORMING GFS
MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST PLACES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MODERATE. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW








000
FXUS62 KILM 191123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST
EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES
A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE BETTER-PERFORMING GFS
MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST PLACES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF
CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING
TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MODERATE. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 191119
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
619 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST
EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES
A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE BETTER-PERFORMING GFS
MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST PLACES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW






000
FXUS62 KILM 191119
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
619 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST
EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES
A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE BETTER-PERFORMING GFS
MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST PLACES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 190858
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE
BETTER-PERFORMING GFS MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST PLACES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW








000
FXUS62 KILM 190858
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE
BETTER-PERFORMING GFS MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST PLACES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW








000
FXUS62 KILM 190858
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE
BETTER-PERFORMING GFS MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST PLACES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW








000
FXUS62 KILM 190858
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY CREATING ONE
LAST NICE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN
AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE
BETTER-PERFORMING GFS MOS...GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MOST PLACES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT MAINLY CIRRUS OF
VARYING EXTENT AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THIS COVER WILL LEAD TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
STAGE ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL TO MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER
QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE
SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE
DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS
SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE
COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING.

RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS
DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION
MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET
ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS
SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET
LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST
FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS
RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND
MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS
WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
NATURE.

THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH
VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL
TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE
THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY.

STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS
DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 KT RANGE
TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS OVERNIGHT AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH
OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON
MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW
WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL
BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE
RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW








000
FXUS62 KRAH 190829
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
328 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK S/W RIDGE
AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE (FROM PARENT HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY)
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. MINOR 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH WEAK CAA
WILL MAINTAIN A  CHILLY AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE MID 50S SOUTHERN THIRD.

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SPREADING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. WITH A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS IT
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT WE WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED
DAMMING EVENT DEVELOP.... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND HARDLY MOVING FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...
THINK WE COULD SEE OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY... BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER EAST AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NC ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END... WITH
ONLY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR E/SE.

A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE FORMED A DEEP TROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT... WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AS IT STANDS NOW...
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THOUGH). QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM THOUGH... AS FINER DETAILS LIKE
THIS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETREATING CAD BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD BE A HSLC TYPE OF SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR IT IS QUITE HARD TO GET THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT... WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAD
BOUNDARY RETREATS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 60S SE. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL NOT FALL MUCH... WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE/E. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WITH A RETURN TO
QUITE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 190829
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
328 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK S/W RIDGE
AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE (FROM PARENT HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY)
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. MINOR 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH WEAK CAA
WILL MAINTAIN A  CHILLY AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE MID 50S SOUTHERN THIRD.

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SPREADING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. WITH A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS IT
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT WE WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED
DAMMING EVENT DEVELOP.... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND HARDLY MOVING FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...
THINK WE COULD SEE OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY... BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER EAST AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NC ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END... WITH
ONLY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR E/SE.

A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE FORMED A DEEP TROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT... WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AS IT STANDS NOW...
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THOUGH). QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM THOUGH... AS FINER DETAILS LIKE
THIS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETREATING CAD BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD BE A HSLC TYPE OF SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR IT IS QUITE HARD TO GET THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT... WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAD
BOUNDARY RETREATS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 60S SE. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL NOT FALL MUCH... WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE/E. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WITH A RETURN TO
QUITE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 190829
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
328 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK S/W RIDGE
AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE (FROM PARENT HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY)
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. MINOR 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH WEAK CAA
WILL MAINTAIN A  CHILLY AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE MID 50S SOUTHERN THIRD.

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SPREADING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. WITH A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS IT
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT WE WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED
DAMMING EVENT DEVELOP.... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND HARDLY MOVING FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...
THINK WE COULD SEE OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY... BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER EAST AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NC ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END... WITH
ONLY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR E/SE.

A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE FORMED A DEEP TROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT... WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AS IT STANDS NOW...
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THOUGH). QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM THOUGH... AS FINER DETAILS LIKE
THIS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETREATING CAD BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD BE A HSLC TYPE OF SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR IT IS QUITE HARD TO GET THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT... WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAD
BOUNDARY RETREATS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 60S SE. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL NOT FALL MUCH... WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE/E. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WITH A RETURN TO
QUITE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 190829
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
328 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK S/W RIDGE
AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE (FROM PARENT HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY)
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. MINOR 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH WEAK CAA
WILL MAINTAIN A  CHILLY AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE MID 50S SOUTHERN THIRD.

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY... WHILE BRIEF MID LEVEL S/W
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MID MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS... GIVEN WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUN ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL... FROM
AROUND 50 N TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
S/W DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SPREADING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. WITH A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH STILL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS IT
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT WE WILL SEE A PRONOUNCED
DAMMING EVENT DEVELOP.... WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND HARDLY MOVING FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...
THINK WE COULD SEE OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WARM UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY... BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER EAST AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NC ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END... WITH
ONLY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAINING. LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR E/SE.

A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE FORMED A DEEP TROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE DEEP
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT... WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AS IT STANDS NOW...
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THOUGH). QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHERE A
POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM THOUGH... AS FINER DETAILS LIKE
THIS ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETREATING CAD BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD BE A HSLC TYPE OF SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR IT IS QUITE HARD TO GET THE NEEDED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT... WITH THINGS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAD
BOUNDARY RETREATS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 60S SE. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL NOT FALL MUCH... WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE/E. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY... WITH A RETURN TO
QUITE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S... WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 190816
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK S/W RIDGE
AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE (FROM PARENT HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY)
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. MINOR 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH WEAK CAA
WILL MAINTAIN A  CHILLY AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE MID 50S SOUTHERN THIRD.

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 190816
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK S/W RIDGE
AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE (FROM PARENT HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY)
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. MINOR 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH WEAK CAA
WILL MAINTAIN A  CHILLY AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE MID 50S SOUTHERN THIRD.

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190816
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK S/W RIDGE
AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE (FROM PARENT HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY)
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. MINOR 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH WEAK CAA
WILL MAINTAIN A  CHILLY AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE MID 50S SOUTHERN THIRD.

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190816
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

TODAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK S/W RIDGE
AND ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE (FROM PARENT HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY)
BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. MINOR 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WITH WEAK CAA
WILL MAINTAIN A  CHILLY AIR MASS WITH HIGH TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE MID 50S SOUTHERN THIRD.

TONIGHT...A S/W LIFTING E-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST-SW. MODEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE MAY CAUSE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW-MID 30S THOUGH SOME PLACES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY THEREAFTER DUE TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

S/W CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY
SATURDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT THROUGH THE
COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 700MB AND MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO 48-72 HOURS AGO WITH SOME NEAR TERM MODELS
NOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. PER
LATEST MOISTURE PROFILES AND LIFT...FELL THAT A FEW HUNDREDTHS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BACK INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
MAINTAINED A LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH. FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
RDU..CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. AGAIN...WHAT PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS VARYING BETWEEN A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP IN THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND DAYBREAK...COINCIDING WITH THE BEST
LIFT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGESTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND
POSSIBLY THE ROXBORO AREAS...MAINLY WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP INTENSITY IS
OCCURRING. WHILE BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES NORTH OF TEH I-85/40
CORRIDOR IN THE TRIAD.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF PRECIP SATURDAY AND
WHETHER PRECIP DOES DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W SHOULD END THE THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY EVENING
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
ANTICIPATION OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (LOW-MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 190813
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING TO THE N WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. THE
MID LVLS DRY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AND EXPECT MSUNNY
SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOW LVL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM MID/UPR 40S NE TO LOW/MID 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM THRU DAYBREAK DECENT CVRG OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL CONT
AND SHLD TEND TO INHIBIT MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH MCLR SKIES.
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD HOLD OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT LIGHT
MAINLY NW WINDS WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS LATER TODAY
AND CONT AT THAT SPEED THRU TONIGHT. SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET
SRN TIER OVER NRN WTRS MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER
WATERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 190813
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING TO THE N WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. THE
MID LVLS DRY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AND EXPECT MSUNNY
SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOW LVL THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM MID/UPR 40S NE TO LOW/MID 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM THRU DAYBREAK DECENT CVRG OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL CONT
AND SHLD TEND TO INHIBIT MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH MCLR SKIES.
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD HOLD OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT LIGHT
MAINLY NW WINDS WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS LATER TODAY
AND CONT AT THAT SPEED THRU TONIGHT. SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET
SRN TIER OVER NRN WTRS MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER
WATERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD









000
FXUS62 KRAH 190557
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM THURSDAY...

SATELLITE AND MOST DATA CONFIRM PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER TN/NC. THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE NW. SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS ARE ON TARGET
FOR 30-35 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190557
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY... THEN TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM THURSDAY...

SATELLITE AND MOST DATA CONFIRM PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER TN/NC. THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE NW. SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS ARE ON TARGET
FOR 30-35 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. FEWER CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO MOISTEN THIS LEVEL...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN THE 14Z-20Z
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS
ONE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL
NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 190541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING A
CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +6C SHOULD
SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM
TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5000-7000 FT
RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF MODEL RH AND
ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD HAVE
TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS
THEY PRESS EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
NEAR THE COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 190541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING A
CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +6C SHOULD
SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM
TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5000-7000 FT
RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF MODEL RH AND
ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD HAVE
TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS
THEY PRESS EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
NEAR THE COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 190541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING A
CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +6C SHOULD
SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM
TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5000-7000 FT
RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF MODEL RH AND
ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD HAVE
TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS
THEY PRESS EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
NEAR THE COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 190541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1241 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING A
CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +6C SHOULD
SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM
TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 5000-7000 FT
RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF MODEL RH AND
ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD HAVE
TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS
THEY PRESS EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
NEAR THE COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM WITH CONTINUED SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...MORE CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE
CAROLINAS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE
LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CIGS 10-15KFT
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/MBB




000
FXUS62 KMHX 190529
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1229 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRI...NO CHANGES WITH SKIES AVG OUT PC AS BATCHES OF
MID LVL CLDS CROSS IN ASSOC WITH SHRT WAVE CROSSING TO THE N. SHLD
SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE 30
TO 35 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
     LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM THRU DAYBREAK, DECENT CVRG OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL CONT
AND SHLD TEND TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH MCLR SKIES. MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY
PRECIP SHLD HOLD OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRI...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISC...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH N WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODELS
AND WAVEWATCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JME/BM









000
FXUS62 KMHX 190529
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1229 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRI...NO CHANGES WITH SKIES AVG OUT PC AS BATCHES OF
MID LVL CLDS CROSS IN ASSOC WITH SHRT WAVE CROSSING TO THE N. SHLD
SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE 30
TO 35 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
     LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM THRU DAYBREAK, DECENT CVRG OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL CONT
AND SHLD TEND TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH MCLR SKIES. MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY
PRECIP SHLD HOLD OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRI...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISC...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH N WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODELS
AND WAVEWATCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JME/BM










000
FXUS62 KRAH 190328
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM THURSDAY...

SATELLITE AND MOST DATA CONFIRM PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER TN/NC. THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE NW. SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS ARE ON TARGET
FOR 30-35 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ASIDE FROM LINGERING 6-8 KFT CEILINGS
THIS EVENING...EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT.

LOOKING AHEAD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST...FALLING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR FROM
THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY (LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY) AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS...HEAVY SHOWERS...AND STRONG WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY LATE TUE INTO WED AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190328
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM THURSDAY...

SATELLITE AND MOST DATA CONFIRM PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER TN/NC. THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE NW. SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS ARE ON TARGET
FOR 30-35 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ASIDE FROM LINGERING 6-8 KFT CEILINGS
THIS EVENING...EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT.

LOOKING AHEAD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST...FALLING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR FROM
THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY (LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY) AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS...HEAVY SHOWERS...AND STRONG WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY LATE TUE INTO WED AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190328
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM THURSDAY...

SATELLITE AND MOST DATA CONFIRM PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER TN/NC. THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE NW. SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS ARE ON TARGET
FOR 30-35 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ASIDE FROM LINGERING 6-8 KFT CEILINGS
THIS EVENING...EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT.

LOOKING AHEAD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST...FALLING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR FROM
THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY (LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY) AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS...HEAVY SHOWERS...AND STRONG WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY LATE TUE INTO WED AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190328
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM THURSDAY...

SATELLITE AND MOST DATA CONFIRM PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING OVER TN/NC. THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS IN THE NW. SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS ARE ON TARGET
FOR 30-35 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ASIDE FROM LINGERING 6-8 KFT CEILINGS
THIS EVENING...EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT.

LOOKING AHEAD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST...FALLING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR FROM
THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY (LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY) AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS...HEAVY SHOWERS...AND STRONG WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY LATE TUE INTO WED AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 190225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES IS PUSHING A CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +6C SHOULD SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE
ACROSS FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATCUMULUS IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF
MODEL RH AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED THROUGHOUT
THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS THEY PRESS
EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR THE
COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET
CURRENTLY. WAVE SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 190225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES IS PUSHING A CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +6C SHOULD SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE
ACROSS FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATCUMULUS IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF
MODEL RH AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED THROUGHOUT
THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS THEY PRESS
EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR THE
COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET
CURRENTLY. WAVE SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 190225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES IS PUSHING A CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +6C SHOULD SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE
ACROSS FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATCUMULUS IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF
MODEL RH AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED THROUGHOUT
THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS THEY PRESS
EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR THE
COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET
CURRENTLY. WAVE SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 190225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES IS PUSHING A CHILLY AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +6C SHOULD SLIP TO +4C BY DAYBREAK. A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL MOVE
ACROSS FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WILL SOME STRATCUMULUS IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED WEST OF I-95. ANALYSIS OF
MODEL RH AND ISENTROPIC FIELDS INDICATES THIS STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST TONIGHT -- A STRIPE OF HIGHER RH
(60-75 PERCENT IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER) SHOULD EXTEND DOWN TO THE
COAST BY 12Z FRI BUT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE NOTED THROUGHOUT
THE 290-300K THETA SURFACES CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING AS THEY PRESS
EASTWARD. SKY COVER FORECASTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR THE
COAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND.

ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS OVERNIGHT...STILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET
CURRENTLY. WAVE SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KMHX 190210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
910 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 910 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. ALOFT THE TAIL END OF A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE THROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL
PRODUCE PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT, THICKEST NORTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS WILL BE CALM BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THOUGH SUCH THAT FORECAST LOWS AROUND 30
INLAND AND MIDDLE 30S BEACHES WILL BE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
     LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD MID CLOUD
DECK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING EARLY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH N
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...CTC/JME/BM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 190210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
910 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 910 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. ALOFT THE TAIL END OF A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE THROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL
PRODUCE PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT, THICKEST NORTH. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS WILL BE CALM BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THOUGH SUCH THAT FORECAST LOWS AROUND 30
INLAND AND MIDDLE 30S BEACHES WILL BE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
     LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD MID CLOUD
DECK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING EARLY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH N
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...CTC/JME/BM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 190104
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
804 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST ON
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA AS IT TRACKS OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ASIDE FROM LINGERING 6-8 KFT CEILINGS
THIS EVENING...EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT.

LOOKING AHEAD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST...FALLING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR FROM
THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY (LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY) AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS...HEAVY SHOWERS...AND STRONG WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY LATE TUE INTO WED AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 182347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES TURNED
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH IS JUST
NOW DISSIPATING. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE ONLY MILDLY IMPEDED BY CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS AT OR BELOW THE
COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO: LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT
MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...A SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TURNED WIND
DIRECTIONS ONSHORE AT ALL THE BEACHES WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
THIS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
THE WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FROM THE NORTH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 182347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES TURNED
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH IS JUST
NOW DISSIPATING. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE ONLY MILDLY IMPEDED BY CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS AT OR BELOW THE
COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO: LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT
MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...A SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TURNED WIND
DIRECTIONS ONSHORE AT ALL THE BEACHES WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
THIS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
THE WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FROM THE NORTH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 182347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES TURNED
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH IS JUST
NOW DISSIPATING. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE ONLY MILDLY IMPEDED BY CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS AT OR BELOW THE
COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO: LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT
MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...A SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TURNED WIND
DIRECTIONS ONSHORE AT ALL THE BEACHES WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
THIS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
THE WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FROM THE NORTH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 182347
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND LOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE BEACHES TURNED
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH IS JUST
NOW DISSIPATING. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE ONLY MILDLY IMPEDED BY CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS AT OR BELOW THE
COOLEST MOS GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO: LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMALLY-COLDER POCOSIN SWAMPS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT
MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED
AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FOG CONCERNS. AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE PASSING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. THE
WINDS WILL BE N-NE LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES ON FRI.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...A SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TURNED WIND
DIRECTIONS ONSHORE AT ALL THE BEACHES WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
THIS SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
THE WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FROM THE NORTH DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEAS ARE 1 TO BARELY 2 FEET CURRENTLY. WAVE
SPECTRA OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN 11
SECOND SE SWELL AND 4 SECOND WIND CHOP.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





000
FXUS62 KMHX 182300
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. ALOFT THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL PRODUCE A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, THICKEST NORTH.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
WILL BE CALM. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THOUGH SUCH THAT FORECAST LOWS AROUND 30 INLAND AND MID 30S
BEACHES WILL BE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
     LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD MID CLOUD
DECK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING EARLY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH N WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...CTC/JME/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 182300
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. ALOFT THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL PRODUCE A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, THICKEST NORTH.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
WILL BE CALM. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THOUGH SUCH THAT FORECAST LOWS AROUND 30 INLAND AND MID 30S
BEACHES WILL BE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
     LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD MID CLOUD
DECK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING EARLY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH N WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...CTC/JME/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 182300
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. ALOFT THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL PRODUCE A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, THICKEST NORTH.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
WILL BE CALM. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THOUGH SUCH THAT FORECAST LOWS AROUND 30 INLAND AND MID 30S
BEACHES WILL BE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
     LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD MID CLOUD
DECK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING EARLY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH N WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...CTC/JME/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 182300
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. ALOFT THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL PRODUCE A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, THICKEST NORTH.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
WILL BE CALM. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THOUGH SUCH THAT FORECAST LOWS AROUND 30 INLAND AND MID 30S
BEACHES WILL BE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
     LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD MID CLOUD
DECK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING EARLY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH N WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...CTC/JME/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 182118
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
418 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AREA-
WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD REACH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. EXPECT
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 10K FEET OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
BROKEN DECK AND A 3 TO 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3
TO 5 FEET. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH N WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.



&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 182118
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
418 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AREA-
WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD REACH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. EXPECT
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 10K FEET OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
BROKEN DECK AND A 3 TO 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3
TO 5 FEET. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH N WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.



&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 182028
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 182028
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 182027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY AND
TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I
HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL
AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 182027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY AND
TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I
HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL
AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 182027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY AND
TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I
HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL
AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 182027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY AND
TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I
HAVE ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL
AS THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RAIN SAT...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE NOT ONLY BEEN GUIDING US TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION...
BUT NOW A DRIER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THAT...HAVE DECIDED TO DIAL BACK SOME ON BOTH POPS AND
QPF. NEVERTHELESS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW N TO NE
FLOW THROUGH 3 KFT TO BE TOPPED BY A DEEP W OR WSW FLOW. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND THIS ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DOES ALLOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INCREASE AND THE
COMBINATION DOES SUPPORT HIGH POPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST 3-5 KFT
DO SHOW INDICATIONS OF HANGING ONTO THE DRY AIR IN THIS RATHER
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AT THIS TIME WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL SHOW
INCREASING CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OF THE HIGH VARIETY WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT WILL BE SOLIDLY CLOUDY
LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO PARTIALLY ERODE FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
IN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE LEFT WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...
SAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN-FREE BUT STILL
RATHER CLOUDY WITH NO REAL IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
ROUTED OUT FOLLOWING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. THIS MAY CHANGE AS SOON AS
SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LEADS TO A LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT SITTING OFF THE COAST. FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE WET LOCALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND NOW THE
CMC IS ON BOARD. WILL RAISE POPS BUT NOT GO WITH QUITE THE BULLISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING OVERALL AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE BACKING OFF TREND SEEN IN MODELS WITH THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REACH
THE MOUNTAINS BY EVE BUT LOCALLY THIS SHOULD MEAN ONE DRY DAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS START TO IMPINGE UPON OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAX
OUT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LONG GONE/WELL
OFFSHORE BY MORNING. WEDNESDAY`S COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AND WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...N WINDS FRI WILL VEER TO NNE AND NE FRI
NIGHT WITH NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR SO INTO FRI NIGHT WITH 3 TO
4 FT SEAS BECOMING MORE COMMON DURING SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AN AREA OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD OFFER AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF A SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT THIS DOES NOT
PAN OUT THIS TIME. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE BUT NOT PICK UP
IN SPEED. BACKING WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 182024
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
THIS EVENING. A PATCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING FROM SOME OF THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA.  WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.  WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
TYPICALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS TO LOW/MID 30S AROUND URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDING MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
EVENING...SPREADS INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE...THESE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND
WET BULB ZERO VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND
PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
FRONT IS VERY STRONG WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED
AT 1KFT NEAR RDU ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS
FORECAST AT RDU AT 1.5KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A
NARROW WIND FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELD COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS
NOTED BY THE GFS LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT COULD SUPPORT
SOME HIGHER IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 182024
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
THIS EVENING. A PATCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING FROM SOME OF THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA.  WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.  WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
TYPICALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS TO LOW/MID 30S AROUND URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDING MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
EVENING...SPREADS INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE...THESE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND
WET BULB ZERO VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND
PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
FRONT IS VERY STRONG WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED
AT 1KFT NEAR RDU ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS
FORECAST AT RDU AT 1.5KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A
NARROW WIND FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELD COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS
NOTED BY THE GFS LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT COULD SUPPORT
SOME HIGHER IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 182017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDING MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
EVENING...SPREADS INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE...THESE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND
WET BULB ZERO VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND
PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
FRONT IS VERY STRONG WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED
AT 1KFT NEAR RDU ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS
FORECAST AT RDU AT 1.5KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A
NARROW WIND FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELD COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS
NOTED BY THE GFS LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT COULD SUPPORT
SOME HIGHER IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 182017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE
RIDING MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
EVENING...SPREADS INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE...THESE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND
WET BULB ZERO VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND
PTYPE ISSUES.

A SURFACE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING ABATES BUT A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
FRONT IS VERY STRONG WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED
AT 1KFT NEAR RDU ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS
FORECAST AT RDU AT 1.5KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A
NARROW WIND FOR DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELD COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS
NOTED BY THE GFS LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT COULD SUPPORT
SOME HIGHER IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN`T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 181955
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
SATURDAY`S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.

CAN`T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z)
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...



SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 181754
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1254 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...DECK OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S MOST AREAS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD REACH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. EXPECT
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 10K FEET OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
BROKEN DECK AND A 3 TO 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...THE EARLIER NORTHERLY SURGE HAS ENDED
WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER SEAS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO
10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 181754
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1254 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...DECK OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S MOST AREAS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD REACH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. EXPECT
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 10K FEET OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
BROKEN DECK AND A 3 TO 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...THE EARLIER NORTHERLY SURGE HAS ENDED
WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER SEAS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO
10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KRAH 181744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 181744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 181723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND
GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE
ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
THREAT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 181723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE UNDER A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM BY IN INTERVALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND
GFS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S. I HAVE
ADDED A MARGINAL RADIATIONAL COMPONENT WHICH LOWERS READINGS
SLIGHTLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS MINIMAL AS
THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
THREAT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR TEN KNOTS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERSIST THROUGH
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS...COMPRISED OF A VERY SUBTLE 10 SECOND SWELL
COMPONENT AND FOUR SECOND WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 181652
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INTERVALS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF
BRIGHTER SUNSHINE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...MOSTLY ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 181652
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INTERVALS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF
BRIGHTER SUNSHINE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...MOSTLY ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 181652
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INTERVALS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF
BRIGHTER SUNSHINE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...MOSTLY ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KILM 181652
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1150 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INTERVALS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF
BRIGHTER SUNSHINE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR MAINLY A CIRRUS CEILING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AFTER WHICH CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
NO WEATHER TO SPEAK ABOUT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE. FRIDAY...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN...WITH A BETTER CHANCE MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...MOSTLY ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL










000
FXUS62 KMHX 181434
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY STREAM INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE STRENGTH OF
A STRONG ZONAL FLOW. TWEAKED CLOUDS BACK A BIT IN THE GRIDS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWING THE INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW/MID 50S EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NORTHERLY SURGE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS AT MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AT BOTH DUCK PIER AND
DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. EXPECT THOSE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 10
KNOTS BY THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE
TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 181434
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY STREAM INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE STRENGTH OF
A STRONG ZONAL FLOW. TWEAKED CLOUDS BACK A BIT IN THE GRIDS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWING THE INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW/MID 50S EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NORTHERLY SURGE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS AT MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AT BOTH DUCK PIER AND
DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. EXPECT THOSE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 10
KNOTS BY THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE
TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KILM 181424
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
924 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INTERVALS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF
BRIGHTER SUNSHINE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...MOSTLY ON THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KRAH 181421
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...
GENERALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY MID SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 181421
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...
GENERALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY MID SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 181421
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...
GENERALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY MID SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 181421
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY...

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...
GENERALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY MID SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 181209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST ON TRACK WITH CAA SURGE THIS MORNING AND SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT NRN WATERS. NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 181209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST ON TRACK WITH CAA SURGE THIS MORNING AND SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT NRN WATERS. NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 181209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST ON TRACK WITH CAA SURGE THIS MORNING AND SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT NRN WATERS. NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 181209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST ON TRACK WITH CAA SURGE THIS MORNING AND SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT NRN WATERS. NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








000
FXUS62 KRAH 181138
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...
GENERALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY MID SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC



000
FXUS62 KRAH 181138
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...
GENERALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY MID SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC



000
FXUS62 KRAH 181138
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...
GENERALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY MID SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC



000
FXUS62 KRAH 181138
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...
GENERALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AREAS OF RAIN WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY MID SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC



000
FXUS62 KILM 181121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BIT OF COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY AND LOWER TO MID 30S
OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE
FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT WESTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO A MORE
MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR
TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 181121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BIT OF COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY AND LOWER TO MID 30S
OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE
FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT WESTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO A MORE
MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR
TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 181121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BIT OF COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY AND LOWER TO MID 30S
OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE
FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT WESTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO A MORE
MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR
TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 181121
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST BIT OF COLD ADVECTION
THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY AND LOWER TO MID 30S
OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE
FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT WESTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO A MORE
MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR
TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 181118
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW











000
FXUS62 KILM 181118
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A BIT OF FOG HAS POPPED UP JUST NOW...SHOULD NOT LAST
PAST 13Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. A BLANKET OF
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE IN AND OUT TODAY...SHOULD BE A NICE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY TODAY...BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD CEILING TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR
NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...REK/JDW












000
FXUS62 KMHX 180928
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 180928
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD






000
FXUS62 KRAH 180847
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
YET VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF
COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC



000
FXUS62 KRAH 180847
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
YET VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF
COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 180847
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
YET VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF
COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC



000
FXUS62 KRAH 180847
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...WHILE A SFC DRY AIR RIDGE AND PARENT HIGH ARE STILL IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO SUPPORT A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT
SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN THE MID LEVEL S/W ON
A MORE SLY TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PARENT HIGH A FEW
MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS STILL YIELDS A
HYBRID DAMMING EVENT THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS. S/W HAS RECENTLY ENTERED THE UPPER AIR RAWINSONDE
NETWORK SO THE 12Z MODEL RUN SHOULD GIVE AN INDICATION OF EVENTUAL
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM  REGARDLESS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
AREAS/WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAMP DAY. MOS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND AM RELUCTANT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY FROM CURRENT FORECAST (NEAR 40 NW TO UPPER 40S FAR SE). IF
RAIN COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING SPOTTY VERSUS WIDESPREAD...THEN COULD
SEE AN ADJUSTMENT IN MAX TEMPS TO VALUES COMPARABLE TO THE NAM MOS
(MID-UPPER 40S, NEAR 50 SE).

SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING S/W SHOULD AID TO
DIMINISH LIGHT PRECIP WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (AGAIN DUE TO THE MORE SLY
TRACK OF THE S/W). OTHERWISE CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MAJOR STORM MAY AFFECT THE SE U.S. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING CENTRAL NC) WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT
ON TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE FLIP-FLOPPED A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING A NARROW DRY AIR SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM INITIATING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO HAS ALSO BEEN
PICKED-UP BY THE LATEST ECMWF. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE SHIFT...PLAN TO
CONFINE POPS TO JUST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY...LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 7-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF RAIN MATERIALIZES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TAP GULF MOISTURE AND STREAM IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STRONG JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SE
U.S. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD SEE A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW STORMS CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. A BRIEF BUMP UP IN TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
THOUGH TRULY FRIGID AIR NOT SEEN IN OUR REGION THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
YET VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF
COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/KC




000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 180846
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
BIT OF COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL KEEP TODAYS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY
AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN QUITE FLAT...WITH FLOW ABOVE 850MB REMAINING STRAIGHT
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH LAYERS OF CIRRUS GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO A MORE MID-CLOUD DECK BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS NOT IF IT
WILL RAIN...BUT WHEN...AND HOW MUCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING...TO BE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY
DURING ITS TREK...A DECENT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS THETA-E RIDGING OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY
WILL START CLEAR AND DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE OH VLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
WEDGE-TYPE SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS OCCURS...DIFFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THE INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. LIFT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THE
300K LEVEL...BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHEN PRECIP WILL BEGIN LOCALLY. SREF PROBS
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ONSET TIME...AND FORECAST PROFILES HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINING EVEN BY 7AM SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE CUT BACK POP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND
FEEL THAT CHC AT BEST IS WARRANTED BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
HOWEVER...STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE WET AS COLUMN SATURATION AND
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 285K AND 300K CONTINUES. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...IT IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG...AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. STILL EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
DURING SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAN ON WPC QPF FOR THE EVENT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHUTS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND RAPID DRYING OCCURS THEREAFTER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
SO VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE BULK OF THE QPF
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY BENEATH THE WEDGE AND
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS EVEN BELOW THE COOLEST ECMWF
MOS NUMBERS. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOW 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL JUST
A BIT WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE SUN/MON WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN BY
D4/D5 GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO RAIN
CHANCES...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SUN/MON MOSTLY DRY LOCALLY. SHOULD NOTE THE GFS HAS A STRONG COASTAL
TROUGH ON MONDAY ON WHICH A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...SLINGING A
DECENT QPF EVENT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THIS HAS LIMITED
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS A NEW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. THUS WILL KEEP
THE INHERITED SCHC/LOW CHC SUN/MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.

THEREAFTER IT DOES APPEAR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
A DEEP TROUGH AND MOVE UP THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FOR TUE/WED /CHRISTMAS EVE/. THE STRENGTH OF FEATURES CANNOT BE
GLEANED WITH ANY CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...AND SPC IS ALREADY NOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. THE INHERITED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CALM OR
LGT SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LGT NW-N ALL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE PATCHY BR WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUPPORT DENSE FOG. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH N-NE
WINDS BECOMING LGT E IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL
IN THE EVENING. WITH WORSE CASE MID-LEVEL CIGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF
RIGHT AROUND 2 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A WEDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER...OR JUST EAST...OF
THE WATERS. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL DRIVE A SLOWLY TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...AND CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING FROM
THE N/NE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...BEFORE RISING
TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY WHILE VEERING MORE TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ON THE INCREASING WINDS...FROM 1-2 FT FRIDAY TO 3-4 FT
SATURDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...NE WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 KTS BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT LEAVING A PINCHED
GRADIENT THANKS TO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE N/NW AT
5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WITH 2-4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED...FALLING TO 1-3 FT LATE MONDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER AND MORE
OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW








000
FXUS62 KMHX 180823
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THICKER CI NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 937 PM WED...WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING EASTERN NC. AT
THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND SAT
EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...UPDATED SEAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WW3 WITH
BUILDING SEAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR MORNING. NW WINDS ARE
INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER CHES BAY AND DELMARVA COAST...THUS DO
EXPECT HIGHER WINDS BEHIND SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE NEAR MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CGG/JBM/CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 180823
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THICKER CI NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 937 PM WED...WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING EASTERN NC. AT
THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND SAT
EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...UPDATED SEAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WW3 WITH
BUILDING SEAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR MORNING. NW WINDS ARE
INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER CHES BAY AND DELMARVA COAST...THUS DO
EXPECT HIGHER WINDS BEHIND SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE NEAR MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CGG/JBM/CTC/CQD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 180823
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THICKER CI NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 937 PM WED...WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING EASTERN NC. AT
THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND SAT
EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...UPDATED SEAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WW3 WITH
BUILDING SEAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR MORNING. NW WINDS ARE
INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER CHES BAY AND DELMARVA COAST...THUS DO
EXPECT HIGHER WINDS BEHIND SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE NEAR MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CGG/JBM/CTC/CQD






000
FXUS62 KRAH 180817
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND IN TO THE
AREA... WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GOM LATE FRIDAY.. AND MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN IN
TO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY... AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE...
HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN ACROSS THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...
AND CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MODELS BRING A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE
CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY... AND DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
YET VARIABLE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS GULF
COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF STATES SATURDAY...TO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BSD/KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 180817
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

BRIEF S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL
S/W APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER... THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 METERS
LOWER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUN A GOOD 6
TO 9 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF S/W RIDGING AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... POSSIBLY BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTH AND EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER ON
FRIDAY... AROUND 5 METERS OR SO. HOWEVER... WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THINK WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THUS... EXPECT HIGH TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 55.

AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND BEGIN TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY MORNING NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SLEET OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.... AS ANY OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BRIEF AND OF NO
IMPACT. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 254 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND IN TO THE
AREA... WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GOM LATE FRIDAY.. AND MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN IN
TO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY... AND RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE...
HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN ACROSS THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...
AND