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000
FXUS62 KRAH 301414
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1012 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST WHILE WEAK
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR
A MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
65-70...A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS SEWD AMD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF
EASTERN MANITOBA. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSUE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. WHILE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME ENCOMPASSED BY MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDINESS...BOUNDED BY A BROKEN MID-CLOUD LAYER ON OUR WESTERN
FLANKS...WITH ENCROACHING LOW CLOUD DECK ON THE EASTERN FLANKS.
BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON OUR WESTERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA
EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
CEILINGS AT KRWI THROUGH 13-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED CLEARING OF MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST BEHIND
A TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS



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000
FXUS62 KMHX 301347
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
947 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 940 AM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE AS PRECIP SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS MORNING.HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE MORE AMS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER JUST
OFF THE SRN OBX TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT SE
OF HAT AND MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE GRADIENT PINCHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
OVERALL THOUGH PLEASANT WX EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NC TONIGHT WITH
MOCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID AND UPR 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

$$

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THUS SCAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER THIS MORNING THE
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTED IN NORTH WINDS 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. N-NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...
AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301145
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT
CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI
MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH
POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA
EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
CEILINGS AT KRWI THROUGH 13-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED CLEARING OF MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST BEHIND
A TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS



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000
FXUS62 KILM 301048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST
AND IS NEARLY OFFSHORE VIA LATEST BUOY AND COASTAL OBS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ITS SSE PROGRESSION AND WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY DAYBREAK THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION NOT TOO FAR
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY.
MORE PCPN THEN EXPECTED CONTINUES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL
BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING
AND OFFSHORE BY NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS WITH THE
EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT.
THE NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP CLOUDY
SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT CONTINUED
THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY
DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE THINKING IS
THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...BUT ONLY
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AROUND MID MORNING. SKIES WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PUSH SSE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE AFTER THE CFP AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OFFSHORE...BECOMING ORIENTED NE-SW. WEAK SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL THUS KEEP A SEMI-
TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THUS...WILL KEEP NNE TO NE
WINDS AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THIS WEAK SFC LOW.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT AND BE COMPRISED INITIALLY OF
SW-W WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOMING N-NE WIND DRIVEN. A MORE SOLID 3 TO
4 FT WILL EXIST OVER THE ILM NC WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 3 TO 6 SECONDS. POST FRONTAL
PCPN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY NOON. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW
LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD ALSO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301048
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST
AND IS NEARLY OFFSHORE VIA LATEST BUOY AND COASTAL OBS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ITS SSE PROGRESSION AND WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY DAYBREAK THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION NOT TOO FAR
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY.
MORE PCPN THEN EXPECTED CONTINUES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL
BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING
AND OFFSHORE BY NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS WITH THE
EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT.
THE NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP CLOUDY
SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT CONTINUED
THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY
DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE THINKING IS
THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...BUT ONLY
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AROUND MID MORNING. SKIES WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PUSH SSE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE AFTER THE CFP AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OFFSHORE...BECOMING ORIENTED NE-SW. WEAK SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL THUS KEEP A SEMI-
TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THUS...WILL KEEP NNE TO NE
WINDS AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
FOR THE ILM NC WATERS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THIS WEAK SFC LOW.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT AND BE COMPRISED INITIALLY OF
SW-W WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOMING N-NE WIND DRIVEN. A MORE SOLID 3 TO
4 FT WILL EXIST OVER THE ILM NC WATERS...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR
NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 3 TO 6 SECONDS. POST FRONTAL
PCPN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY NOON. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW
LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD ALSO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 301033
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILM CWA USING KLTX SRM/V PRODUCTS AT THE
0.5 DEGREE SLICE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST FROM THE ILM NC COUNTIES...AND EXTENDS FROM
MYRTLE BEACH SW TO TRIO OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. CONTINUED SSE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT OFF THE ILM SC COAST AND
LIKELY REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BOTH THE NC AND SC COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY. MORE PCPN THEN
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE
CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF
THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS
WITH THE EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA QUITE DIFFERENT. THE
NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP
CLOUDY SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT
CONTINUED THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...BASICALLY DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE THINKING IS THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A
BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...BUT ONLY
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AROUND MID MORNING. SKIES WILL SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PUSH SSE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE AROUND
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE AFTER THE CFP AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE...BECOMING ORIENTED NE-SW. WEAK SFC
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL THUS KEEP A
SEMI-TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP NNE TO NE WINDS AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THIS SFC LOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT AND BE COMPRISED
INITIALLY OF SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOMING N-NE WIND DRIVEN. A
MORE SOLID 3 TO 4 FT WILL EXIST OVER THE ILM NC WATERS...FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 3 TO 6 SECONDS. POST
FRONTAL PCPN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK LOW LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KMHX 300957
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
557 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...MADE SOME CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TO
INIT TEMPS LOWER FOR NRN OBX. CURRENTLY SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE WITH A DECENT HIGH PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORN THEN GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE MORE AMS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER JUST
OFF THE SRN OBX TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT SE
OF HAT AND MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE GRADIENT PINCHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
OVERALL THOUGH PLEASANT WX EXPECTED ACRS ERN NC TONIGHT WITH
MOCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID AND UPR 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

$$

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...MAIN CHANGE ON UPDATE TO ISSUE SCA FOR THE NRN
AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OCRACOKE
INLET THROUGH NOON TODAY...AS SEAS ACRS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
HAVE INCREASED TO 4 TO 7 FEET.

SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTED IN NORTH WINDS 15-2O
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. N-NE WINDS
CONT IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT AGAIN WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF







000
FXUS62 KILM 300828
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILM CWA USING KLTX SRM/V PRODUCTS AT THE
0.5 DEGREE SLICE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST FROM THE ILM NC COUNTIES...AND EXTENDS FROM
MYRTLE BEACH SW TO TRIO OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. CONTINUED SSE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT OFF THE ILM SC COAST AND
LIKELY REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BOTH THE NC AND SC COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY. MORE PCPN THEN
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE
CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF
THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS
WITH THE EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA QUITE DIFFERENT. THE
NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP
CLOUDY SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT
CONTINUED THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...BASICALLY DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE THINKING IS THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A
BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PUSH SSE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OFFSHORE AROUND
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE AFTER THE CFP AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE...BECOMING ORIENTED NE-SW. WEAK SFC
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL THUS KEEP A
SEMI-TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP NNE TO NE WINDS AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THIS SFC LOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT AND BE COMPRISED
INITIALLY OF SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES BECOMING N-NE WIND DRIVEN. A
MORE SOLID 3 TO 4 FT WILL EXIST OVER THE ILM NC WATERS...FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 3 TO 6 SECONDS. POST
FRONTAL PCPN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK LOW LATER TONIGHT...SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH







000
FXUS62 KILM 300758
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILM CWA USING KLTX SRM/V PRODUCTS AT THE
0.5 DEGREE SLICE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME....THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST FROM THE ILM NC COUNTIES...AND EXTENDS FROM
MYRTLE BEACH SW TO TRIO OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. CONTINUED SSE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL TAKE IT OFF THE ILM SC COAST AND
LIKELY REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF BOTH THE NC AND SC COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT...FROM SW TO NE...TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY. MORE PCPN THEN
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE
CELLS EXHIBITING LIGHTNING. POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH THE LAST OF
THE PCPN OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON TODAY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS
WITH THE EXTENT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA QUITE DIFFERENT. THE
NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR BOTH CLOUDS AND PCPN
CHANCES AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS. DID KEEP
CLOUDY SKIES WELL INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT
CONTINUED THE PARTIAL CLEARING TREND INLAND. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY
CLEAR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH POPS REMAINING OFF THE COAST AS MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS...BASICALLY DID A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE THINKING IS THE NAM BEING TOO LOW AND THE GFS RUNNING A
BIT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH








000
FXUS62 KRAH 300742
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT
CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI
MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH
POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA
EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...

VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300728
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT
CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI
MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH
POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA
EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...

VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL/BLAES
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300728
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM THU...CURRENTLY SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS CONT ACRS THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD OFF THE SRN COASTAL AREAS WITH A
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE OBX WITH N WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK BUT THERE CUD BE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORN THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BUT
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE MORE AMS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER JUST
OFF THE SRN OBX TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT SE
OF HAT AND MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE GRADIENT PINCHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
OVERALL THOUGH PLEASANT WX EXPECTED ACRS ERN NC TONIGHT WITH
MOCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID AND UPR 50S ON THE COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORN MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
5-10 KT RANGE WITH VFR CONDS CONTG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THU...SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN NORTH WINDS TODAY 10-2O KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ACRS THE
NRN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. N-NE WINDS CONT IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACRS
THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF







000
FXUS62 KILM 300722
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY WHILE FRIDAY TURNS A BIT
COOLER. SATURDAY WILL TURN ABRUPTLY COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND A WINTER-LIKE CHILL IN THE AFTERNOON BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE
ALMOST AS COLD BUT NOT AS WINDY AND BOTH NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LOWS IN THE 30S, SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLDER OF THE TWO. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT.
ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE
FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS SHORTLY. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES THIS
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO THE PERIOD SOON THEREAFTER. DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGHINESS AND A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL YIELD A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WHILE THE
AFTERNOON REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE A VERY
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO
THE TUNE OF A 36S-1 VORT MAX JUST EAST OF A NORTHERN JET OF 80KT AT
500MB AND 120KT AT 250MB. WITH SUCH ENERGY ALOFT IT FOLLOWS THAT
SOME DOWNRIGHT COLD AIR WILL BE BEING DRAWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE
COLD BLAST IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THIS MEGA-VORT IS NOT
YET BEING SAMPLED BY THE DENSE UPPER AIR OF THE U.S. SO THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WHAT SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL RESULT. THIS MAINLY BEING RELEVANT SINCE THE
CURRENTLY DISCOUNTED WRF BRINGS IN A PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE CAPE FEAR COAST. BARRING THAT THE FORECAST IS MORE
SLANTED TOWARDS GFS/EC/PREV FCST. SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUNDAY IS THE POST COLD ADVECTION DAY WHEREIN
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION HAS
ALREADY TYPICALLY REVERSED BY THIS TIME THE MIXING IS SHALLOWER AND
TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ARE ALMOST AS LARGE AS THE PRIOR
DAY BUT NOT QUITE. ALL OF THIS SHOULD APPLY ON SUNDAY. SIMILARLY THE
STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAD COOLING...AS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF AN
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY THE SECOND NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LINGERING FEW MPH OF NE WINDS THAT MAY SPARE INLAND ZONES FREEZING
TEMPS WHEREAS WEAK OCEAN INFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR UPPER 30S COAST. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS HESITANT TO GET EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
PRECLUDING BONA FIDE RETURN FLOW AND SO THE CLIMO TEMPS SEEN IN MOS
BULLETINS SEEM TOO OPTIMISTIC...AND HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES. THE ACTUAL RETURN FLOW SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE RETURN FLOW BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTENING MAY STILL BE DEDICATED TO PW RECOVERY FROM THE
COLD AIRMASS AS OPPOSED TO ACTUAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED FAIRLY FAR OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A FLAT/ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING MUCH OF
ITS LENGTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO BOOST THE
GRADIENT AND THE RESULTING NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RUN CLOSE TO
CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS. AS THIS LOW CONGEALS INTO A MORE CIRCULAR
SYSTEM AND PULLS AWAY TO THE NE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF LULL AS THE NEXT LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINE THE PERIOD
HOWEVER. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL AND A
BLAST OF COLD AIR AND SURGE IN GRADIENT WILL GET UNDERWAY
IMMEDIATELY ON SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES YET AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR BALLOONS. THIS WILL CHANGE
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT A GALE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG MIXING
OF THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER SSTS. STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME...WHICH WOULD BE A BIT LONGER FUSED THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG EARLY
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
MARKED ABATING TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE RAPID
NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE STILL DEEPENING LOW THAT AFFECTED US
DIRECTLY DURING THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT AS IT APPEARS NOW THERE MAY
BE NO HEADLINES NEEDED BY MIDDAY OR SO. FOR MUCH OF MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE UP AND DOWN THE CAROLINAS WITH A LATE DAY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. N WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND GROW
LIGHTER.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH









000
FXUS62 KRAH 300721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
321 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT
CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI
MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH
POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&
.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...

VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 300645
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT.
ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE
FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS SHORTLY. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES THIS
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ARE
IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE
SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
STRONG N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT
IN CONTINUED CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR
SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL
DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580
DEM BY MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP
INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT
WILL BE SUN NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST. INTI ALLY THE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN AHEAD OF IT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLDER
AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THIS WILL
PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND DAY BREAK.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA
HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED
OF 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND
WIND-SEAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY
THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE
NE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS
HOLDING ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE WARMER WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL
N-NE WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH






000
FXUS62 KILM 300634
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
234 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT.
ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE
FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS SHORTLY. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES THIS
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ARE
IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE
SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
STRONG N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT
IN CONTINUED CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR
SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL
DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580
DEM BY MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP
INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT
WILL BE SUN NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF
A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST
AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE
DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA
4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN
THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR
PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST. INTI ALLY THE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN AHEAD OF IT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLDER
AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THIS WILL
PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND DAY BREAK.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA
HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED
OF 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND
WIND-SEAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY
THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE
NE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS
HOLDING ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE WARMER WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL
N-NE WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KRAH 300626
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
226 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAVING MOVED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN... WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT (INDICATED BY A FALL-
OFF IN DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE THETA-E IN ITS WAKE) IS A BIT FURTHER
NW... STRETCHING ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL VORTICITY
SWEEPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH... AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90+ KT JET TO OUR
NNE... APPEAR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REBIRTH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT... WELL MODELED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THE RAP
ALONG WITH THE HI RES WRF ARW/NMM MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW CWA FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE SHIFTING RAIN JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 07Z OR 08Z. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES WITH TIMING
AND TO INCREASE COVERAGE... BUT OTHERWISE THE GENERAL PATH OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXTRAPOLATION OF OBSERVED AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
ALONG WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE GLAMP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOWS FROM 44 NW TO 56 SE... WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
FROM NW TO SE AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&
.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...

VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300453
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...CURRENTLY SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS CONT ACRS THE
CWA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD NOW ALONG SRN COASTAL AREAS FROM
NEAR HAT TO OAJ. PRETTY GOOD SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN
OBX WITH N WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KT CURRENTLY AT DUCK. NO SIG
CHANGES TO FCST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FCST FOR CWA OVERNIGHT
MAINLY SHRA BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ISOLD TSRA ASSOC
WITH STGR CONVECTION. MAINLY CHANGES TO INIT TEMPS WITH CURRENT
CONDS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT FROM THE LWR TO MID 50S INLAND TO
THE LOWER 60S COAST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THRU
SUNRISE THIS MORN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 2O KT WITH
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SW WINDS 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO N TO NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER
WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/RSB/BTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/RSB/BTC/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 300453
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...CURRENTLY SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS CONT ACRS THE
CWA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD NOW ALONG SRN COASTAL AREAS FROM
NEAR HAT TO OAJ. PRETTY GOOD SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN
OBX WITH N WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KT CURRENTLY AT DUCK. NO SIG
CHANGES TO FCST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FCST FOR CWA OVERNIGHT
MAINLY SHRA BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ISOLD TSRA ASSOC
WITH STGR CONVECTION. MAINLY CHANGES TO INIT TEMPS WITH CURRENT
CONDS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT FROM THE LWR TO MID 50S INLAND TO
THE LOWER 60S COAST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THRU
SUNRISE THIS MORN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 2O KT WITH
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SW WINDS 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO N TO NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER
WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/RSB/BTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/RSB/BTC/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 300220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT HAVE
MIGRATED INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOTED A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME SHOWERS
TO THE SW. SO KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES. ALSO HAVE OBSERVED BRIEF WIND GUSTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
TEMPS FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND PVA WILL PROVIDE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THRU THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING BUT CUD BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE
QUARTER INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY ALSO PULL DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
CHANCES FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A LINGERING SHOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY.

BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LATE ARRIVING SO TEMPS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH E NC LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO IFR
WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. EXPECT RAPID
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH WINDS NORTHERLY IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...A SHOT-FUSED MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ADDED ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN WATERS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. NORTH WINDS COULD GUST TO
AROUND 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SW WINDS 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO N TO NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER
WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/TL
MARINE...RSB/BTC/LEP







000
FXUS62 KILM 300213
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1013 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT.
ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE
FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS SHORTLY. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES THIS
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ARE
IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE
SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
STRONG N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT
IN CONTINUED CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR
SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL
DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580
DEM BY MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP
INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT
WILL BE SUN NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AFFECTING
KFLO...AND POSSIBLY KLBT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST...INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST. INTI ALLY THE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN AHEAD OF IT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLDER
AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THIS WILL
PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND DAY BREAK.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA
HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED
OF 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND
WIND-SEAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY
THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE
NE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS
HOLDING ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE WARMER WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL
N-NE WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/III





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300105
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
905 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY... AND AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... WILL
RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAVING MOVED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN... WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT (INDICATED BY A FALL-
OFF IN DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE THETA-E IN ITS WAKE) IS A BIT FURTHER
NW... STRETCHING ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL VORTICITY
SWEEPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH... AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90+ KT JET TO OUR
NNE... APPEAR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REBIRTH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT... WELL MODELED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THE RAP
ALONG WITH THE HI RES WRF ARW/NMM MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW CWA FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE SHIFTING RAIN JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 07Z OR 08Z. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES WITH TIMING
AND TO INCREASE COVERAGE... BUT OTHERWISE THE GENERAL PATH OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXTRAPOLATION OF OBSERVED AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
ALONG WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE GLAMP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOWS FROM 44 NW TO 56 SE... WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
FROM NW TO SE AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&
.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST"

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988


&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS WILL ONLY LAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z OR SO AT
KRWI AND KFAY THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST THROUGHOUT THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT KFAY AND KRWI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-02Z BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT. WINDS ELSEWHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NNE AND DROP OFF IN SPEED... TO LESS
THAN 6KT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

THEN... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. HOWEVER... THE TRACK
OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION AS ARE THE RESULTANT CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. GUSTY NW WINDS AT 15-25KT EXPECTED IN THE
REAR OF THE STORM SYSTEM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL/GIH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...PWB




000
FXUS62 KILM 292358
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
758 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH
CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE FRONT IS STILL NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS
BEGINNING IN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES
THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT
TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS
AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB.
DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER
INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED
DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC
WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ARE
IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE
SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN
STRONG N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT
IN CONTINUED CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR
SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL
DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT
TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580
DEM BY MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP
INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT
WILL BE SUN NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR WEST...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AFFECTING
KFLO...AND POSSIBLY KLBT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OVERALL EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST...INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH
REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST. INTI ALLY THE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN AHEAD OF IT
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLDER
AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THIS WILL
PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND DAY BREAK.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA
HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED
OF 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND
WIND-SEAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY
THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE
NE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS
HOLDING ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE WARMER WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL
N-NE WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK
DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/III





000
FXUS62 KRAH 292338
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
735 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT..WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM MT
AIRY TO ASHEVILLE...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH HIT
THE SKIDS. EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS LEAVE LITTLE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...ANA-
FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND
PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. INITIALLY...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST"

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988


&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS WILL ONLY LAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z OR SO AT
KRWI AND KFAY THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST THROUGHOUT THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT KFAY AND KRWI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-02Z BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT. WINDS ELSEWHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NNE AND DROP OFF IN SPEED... TO LESS
THAN 6KT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

THEN... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. HOWEVER... THE TRACK
OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION AS ARE THE RESULTANT CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. GUSTY NW WINDS AT 15-25KT EXPECTED IN THE
REAR OF THE STORM SYSTEM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...PWB




000
FXUS62 KMHX 292315
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING AS BULK OF ACTIVITY STILL IN PIEDMONT OF NC. NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE BRINGS IN SHOWERS BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM...WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN FALLING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND PVA WILL PROVIDE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THRU THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING BUT CUD BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE
QUARTER INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY ALSO PULL DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
CHANCES FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A LINGERING SHOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY.

BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LATE ARRIVING SO TEMPS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH E NC LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO IFR
WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. EXPECT RAPID
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH WINDS NORTHERLY IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO N TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH
WINDS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/TL
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/TL
MARINE...RSB/BTC









000
FXUS62 KRAH 291954
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT..WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM MT
AIRY TO ASHEVILLE...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH HIT
THE SKIDS. EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS LEAVE LITTLE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...ANA-
FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND
PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. INITIALLY...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST"

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEST-
EAST CLEARING BETWEEN 06 TO 15Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291944
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
344 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PVA WILL PROVIDE
FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THRU THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY
FAST MOVING BUT CUD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONGER CONVECTION MAY ALSO PULL DOWN SOME GUSTY
WINDS AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT CHANCES FOR STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A
LINGERING SHOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY.

BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LATE ARRIVING SO TEMPS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT COMING THRU
THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF PREDOMINATE MVFR BY LATE EVENING
THRU EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS WITH VFR RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS MAY
GUST 15KT AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5
FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...RSB/BTC
MARINE...RSB/BTC







000
FXUS62 KRAH 291924
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT..WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM MT
AIRY TO ASHEVILLE...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH HIT
THE SKIDS. EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS LEAVE LITTLE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...ANA-
FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND
PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. INITIALLY...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX READINGS IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEST-
EAST CLEARING BETWEEN 06 TO 15Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KILM 291900
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE
VICINITY OF CLT...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN
THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SOME AS IT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL
ABOUT 3 HOURS AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE.
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE
ANTICIPATED COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING
POST FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED BY
THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB. DO NOT
THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER INCH AT
MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED DISTRIBUTION
AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC WITH LOWEST
ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS
THE RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE
OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE
STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.

DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP
PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO
VERY STRONG COOLING.

RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS
ARE IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO
PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5
HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH CLOUDS
AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE SEASON.

DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN STRONG
N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT IN CONTINUED
CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW
30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS COLUMN DRIES OUT
FURTHER.

AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580 DEM BY
MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP INTO THE
60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE SUN
NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE 30S
MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE
LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY AROUND 10 KTS. TONIGHT...FRONT
PUSHES FAIRLY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERMITTENT
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY VFR. POST
FRONTAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SKIES SCATTERING
SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST.
INTI ALLY THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
AHEAD OF IT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD COLDER AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
AROUND DAY BREAK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING
FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE
THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA HEIGHTS
MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED OF 1-1.5
FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND WIND-SEAS.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY THURSDAY.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS
UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH
GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE NE
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS HOLDING ON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL N-NE WINDS WILL
BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/III





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291859
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT..WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM MT
AIRY TO ASHEVILLE...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH HIT
THE SKIDS. EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS LEAVE LITTLE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...ANA-
FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND
PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. INITIALLY...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEST-
EAST CLEARING BETWEEN 06 TO 15Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291850
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PVA WILL PROVIDE
FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THRU THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY
FAST MOVING BUT CUD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONGER CONVECTION MAY ALSO PULL DOWN SOME GUSTY
WINDS AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT CHANCES FOR STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A
LINGERING SHOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY.

BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LATE ARRIVING SO TEMPS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING
OF THE CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THU MORN. LOW
TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-
MID 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPR 60S...COULD SEE
SOME SHRA OVER CSTL WTRS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG SHORT
WAVE.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC LOW
PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST E OF ERN NC WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND LIFT INDICATED JUST N OF MID LVL LOW.  WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL AREAS...HIGHEST N AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS
CONT. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY SAT TO MID/UPR 50S AS APPEARS
THE STRONG CAA DOES NOT KICK IN TIL LATE.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS
SOUND SIDE FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
REALLY DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUN WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR
THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

$$

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT COMING THRU
THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF PREDOMINATE MVFR BY LATE EVENING
THRU EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS WITH VFR RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS MAY
GUST 15KT AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF SHRA
AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR WILL RETURN LATE SAT AND
CONT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5
FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT. WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT WEAK HIGH
PRES IS REPLACED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING VERY STRONG UPR TRF/LOW. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE
AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SAT AFTN AND EVENING
AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WILL SEE
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN HAVE
SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG NW
WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING AOA 10 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...BTC/RF
MARINE...BTC/RF







000
FXUS62 KILM 291814
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
214 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE
VICINITY OF CLT...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME
AS IT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT
3 HOURS AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST
FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES
WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED BY
THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB. DO NOT
THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER INCH AT
MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED DISTRIBUTION
AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC WITH LOWEST
ACROSS COASTAL SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING...MAINLY AROUND 10 KTS. TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PREDOMINATELY VFR. POST FRONTAL...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SKIES SCATTERING SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST BY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST.
INTI ALLY THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
AHEAD OF IT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD COLDER AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
AROUND DAY BREAK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING
FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KRAH 291804
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENSIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 13Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST CROSSED THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO WESTERN NC...WITH ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP LAGGING EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
WITH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH EXPECTED FROPA
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3
HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

THE SLOWER TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH AN OPAQUE
CIRRUS SHIELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.

THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. POST FRONATAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEST-
EAST CLEARING BETWEEN 06 TO 15Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291417
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1017 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER WARM FALL AFTERNOON IN STORE AS DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF DOWNSTREAM FULL AMPLITUDE TROF AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY. NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY GIVEN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS, BUT HIGHS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S COASTAL SXNS. ANY PRECIP
ACCOMPANYING THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AS AN INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE TO LIKELY ACRS NW SXNS THIS EVE AND
ERN SXNS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND PVA MOVES EWD ACRS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WITH
LWR 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LWR 60S IMMEDIATE COASTAL SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING
OF THE CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THU MORN WITH
LINGERING SHRA COAST ENDING BY AROUND NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM W
TO E WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65 TO 70. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE HELD
UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S...COULD SEE SOME SHRA OVER CSTL WTRS IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC LOW
PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST E OF ERN NC WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND LIFT INDICATED JUST N OF MID LVL LOW.  WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL AREAS...HIGHEST N AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS
CONT. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY SAT TO MID/UPR 50S AS APPEARS
THE STRONG CAA DOES NOT KICK IN TIL LATE.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS
SOUND SIDE FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
REALLY DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUN WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR
THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

$$

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL A BIT OF PATCHY FOG AT OAJ BUT THIS SHUD LIFT SHORTLY WITH
VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. SCT TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDS PSBL TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SHRA SHOULD BE E OF TAF SITES BY EARLY THU MON WITH
VFR EXPECTED AS SKIES CLR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT
WITH CHC OF SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR WILL RETURN
LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH SWLY WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT TODAY. SW
WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH SEAS CONTG AT 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT WEAK HIGH PRES IS REPLACED
BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING VERY
STRONG UPR TRF/LOW. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SAT AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WILL SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW
WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS.
CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING AOA 10 FT
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC/CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/BTC
MARINE...JAC/RF/BTC







000
FXUS62 KRAH 291317
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 13Z SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST CROSSED THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
WESTERN NC...WITH ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP LAGGING EVER SO SLIGHTLY. WITH
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH EXPECTED FROPA
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3
HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

THE SLOWER TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH AN OPAQUE
CIRRUS SHIELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.

THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS OVER EASTERN SC WILL MAKE
LITTLE ADDITIONAL NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS OWING TO A VEERING OF THE
SURFACE WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SUCH THAT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF FAY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS - AND ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS - MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
ONLY AROUND 2-5 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LONGEST AT EASTERN
SITES. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE
EAST...AS THE SLOW APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOISTURE BACK UP
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT.

OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL
VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291055
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL
SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED
GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT
REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.

THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN
LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS OVER EASTERN SC WILL MAKE
LITTLE ADDITIONAL NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS OWING TO A VEERING OF THE
SURFACE WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SUCH THAT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF FAY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS - AND ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS - MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
ONLY AROUND 2-5 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LONGEST AT EASTERN
SITES. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE
EAST...AS THE SLOW APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOISTURE BACK UP
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT.

OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL
VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 291053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER/FASTER NAM
OVER THE GFS FOR THE ESE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...CROSSING THE
ILM CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFF THE ILM CWA
COASTLINE AND THRU THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE WEAK
MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THE UPPER TROF NEVER REALLY AMPLIFIES
ENOUGH TO TAP/ACCESS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO AID PCPN
DEVELOPMENT AND/OR COVERAGE. THUS...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT WILL BE WORKED ON AS WELL AS THE AVBL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION TO NOT GOING ANY HIER THAN
CHANCE POPS IS THE RATHER WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT. FRONTAL DYNAMICS
ITSELF WITH LIKELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER TO AID PCPN ACTIVITY. WITH
THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE CFP...THIN TO OPAQUE CLOUDINESS WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM REACHING WELL
INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE FA
ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THUS MAY HAVE A SHOT OF
BEING BROKEN.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
WILMINGTON........82 1984
FLORENCE..........84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH...83/1991

AFTER THE CFP...LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT PCPN LIKELY ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS EVENTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE CFP.
THINKING IS THE BEST CAA SURGE TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
DAYLIGHT THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG/STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AT THIS POINT. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FROM 12-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
HONE THE TIMING DOWN WITH THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 02Z OR SO. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL BE NARROW...LASTING ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY MORNING THRU FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS/PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AND THE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A NEW AND COOLER AIR
MASS.

VARIOUS MODELS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT SUPPORT A SW-WSW
WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS AT 10
TO AROUND 15 KT. DURING THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND FINALLY OFFSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW-WSW TO W AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FURTHER VEERING TO THE NW IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA...AND
FROM THE NORTH AS THE CAA SURGE OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR MINIMUM SPEEDS THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AFTER FROPA...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO A
SOLID 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 KT BY/AFTER DAYBREAK THU DUE TO THE CAA
SURGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 3 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...WITH AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9
SECOND PERIODS REMAINING PRESENT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...HDL





000
FXUS62 KILM 291031
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
621 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER/FASTER NAM
OVER THE GFS FOR THE ESE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...CROSSING THE
ILM CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFF THE ILM CWA
COASTLINE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THE UPPER
TROF NEVER REALLY AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO TAP/ACCESS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND/OR COVERAGE. THUS...MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL BE WORKED ON AS WELL AS THE AVBL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION TO NOT GOING ANY HIER
WITH POPS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS THE RATHER WEAK DYNAMICS
ALOFT. FRONTAL DYNAMICS ITSELF WITH LIKELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER TO
AID PCPN ACTIVITY. WITH THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE CFP...THIN TO
OPAQUE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE FA ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THUS
MAY HAVE A SHOT OF BREAKING THEM...

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

AFTER THE CFP...LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT PCPN LIKELY ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS EVENTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE CFP.
THINKING IS THE BEST CAA SURGE TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
DAYLIGHT THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG/STRATUS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AT THIS POINT. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FROM 12-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
HONE THE TIMING DOWN WITH THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 02Z OR SO. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL BE NARROW...LASTING ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY MORNING THRU FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS/PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AND THE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A NEW AND COOLER AIR
MASS.

VARIOUS MODELS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT SUPPORT A SW-WSW
WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS AT 10
TO AROUND 15 KT. DURING THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND OFFSHORE AFTER MID
NIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER FROM WSW TO W AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...VEERING TO THE NW IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA...AND FROM THE
NORTH AS THE CAA OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR MINIMUM SPEEDS THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AFTER FROPA...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT BY DAYBREAK THU DUE TO THE CAA SURGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL MAINLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 3 TO 6
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AN
UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS
REMAINING PRESENT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KMHX 290916
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
516 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 515 AM WED...ONLY CHANGES TO INIT T/TD. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONT TO SEE WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER PRESENT. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S COASTAL SXNS. PRECIP MOVES INTO NW
COASTAL PLAINS AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AS AN INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE TO LIKELY ACRS NW SXNS THIS EVE AND
ERN SXNS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND PVA MOVES EWD ACRS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WITH
LWR 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LWR 60S IMMEDIATE COASTAL SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING
OF THE CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THU MORN WITH
LINGERING SHRA COAST ENDING BY AROUND NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM W
TO E WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65 TO 70. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE HELD
UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S...COULD SEE SOME SHRA OVER CSTL WTRS IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC LOW
PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST E OF ERN NC WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND LIFT INDICATED JUST N OF MID LVL LOW.  WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL AREAS...HIGHEST N AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS
CONT. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY SAT TO MID/UPR 50S AS APPEARS
THE STRONG CAA DOES NOT KICK IN TIL LATE.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS
SOUND SIDE FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
REALLY DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUN WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR
THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AND SOME PTCHY FOG TWD MORN IF WINDS DECOUPLE HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MENTION
OF LLWS EARLY THIS MORN AS SW LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDS PSBL TONIGHT AT THE
TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SHRA SHOULD BE E OF TAF SITES BY EARLY THU MON WITH
VFR EXPECTED AS SKIES CLR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT
WITH CHC OF SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR WILL RETURN
LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM WED...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. PRES GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SWLY WINDS 10-20 KT
AND SEAS 2-4 FT TODAY. SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH SEAS CONTG AT 2-4
FT.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT WEAK HIGH PRES IS REPLACED
BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING VERY
STRONG UPR TRF/LOW. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SAT AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WILL SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW
WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS.
CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING AOA 10 FT
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF







000
FXUS62 KILM 290901
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
501 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER/FASTER NAM
OVER THE GFS FOR THE ESE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...CROSSING THE
ILM CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFF THE ILM CWA
COASTLINE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THE UPPER
TROF NEVER REALLY AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO TAP/ACCESS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND/OR COVERAGE. THUS...MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL BE WORKED ON AS WELL AS THE AVBL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION TO NOT GOING ANY HIER
WITH POPS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS THE RATHER WEAK DYNAMICS
ALOFT. FRONTAL DYNAMICS ITSELF WITH LIKELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER TO
AID PCPN ACTIVITY. WITH THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE CFP...THIN TO
OPAQUE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE FA ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THUS
MAY HAVE A SHOT OF BREAKING THEM...

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

AFTER THE CFP...LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT PCPN LIKELY ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS EVENTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE CFP.
THINKING IS THE BEST CAA SURGE TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
DAYLIGHT THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR FROM LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR DURING DAYLIGHTS WED HRS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

ANTICIPATE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD CEILING OVER WIDESPREAD FOG. ACTIVE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM BUT WILL
ALLOW A LOW STRATUS SCT-BKN DECK WITH BASES AT 5H TO 1K FOOT THRU
14Z. 1-2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM...INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. BKN CU-SC CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE SHRA ACROSS THE FA AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACH THE FA LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN AND AS A RESULT WILL ENTERTAIN VICINITY SHRA
FOR NOW AFTER 00Z 10/30. WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WESTERLY THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE 6-12Z THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST. VFR
LATER THU THRU FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS/PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...AND THE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A NEW AND COOLER AIR
MASS.

VARIOUS MODELS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT SUPPORT A SW-WSW
WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SPEEDS AT 10
TO AROUND 15 KT. DURING THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND OFFSHORE AFTER MID
NIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER FROM WSW TO W AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...VEERING TO THE NW IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA...AND FROM THE
NORTH AS THE CAA OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR MINIMUM SPEEDS THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AFTER FROPA...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO A SOLID 15 TO
POSSIBLY 20 KT BY DAYBREAK THU DUE TO THE CAA SURGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL MAINLY RUN 2 TO 4 FT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 3 TO 6
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AN
UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS
REMAINING PRESENT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 290843
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
443 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...PREFER THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER/FASTER NAM
OVER THE GFS FOR THE ESE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...CROSSING THE
ILM CWA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING OFF THE ILM CWA
COASTLINE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES. THE UPPER
TROF NEVER REALLY AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO TAP/ACCESS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND/OR COVERAGE. THUS...MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL BE WORKED ON AS WELL AS THE AVBL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. IN ADDITION TO NOT GOING ANY HIER
WITH POPS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS THE RATHER WEAK DYNAMICS
ALOFT. FRONTAL DYNAMICS ITSELF WITH LIKELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER TO
AID PCPN ACTIVITY. WITH THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE CFP...THIN TO
OPAQUE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE FA ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND THUS
MAY HAVE A SHOT OF BREAKING THEM...

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

AFTER THE CFP...LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THU HOURS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT PCPN LIKELY ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS EVENTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE CFP.
THINKING IS THE BEST CAA SURGE TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
DAYLIGHT THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR FROM LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR DURING DAYLIGHTS WED HRS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

ANTICIPATE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD CEILING OVER WIDESPREAD FOG. ACTIVE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM BUT WILL
ALLOW A LOW STRATUS SCT-BKN DECK WITH BASES AT 5H TO 1K FOOT THRU
14Z. 1-2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM...INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. BKN CU-SC CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE SHRA ACROSS THE FA AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACH THE FA LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN AND AS A RESULT WILL ENTERTAIN VICINITY SHRA
FOR NOW AFTER 00Z 10/30. WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WESTERLY THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE 6-12Z THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST. VFR
LATER THU THRU FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 290748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP COMPLEMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY THEN TURNS
BLUSTERY WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD THAT WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. A VERY
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY
THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR PUSHING IN RAPIDLY FROM POINTS
NORTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOCALES MAY SEE SOME MORNING SPRINKLES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL DESPITE THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING BACK AND A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT LINE OF VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
STILL DIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
MANAGE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BUT IT ALL APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH IS QUITE NEAR CLIMO...BUT WILL HAVE A COOLISH FEEL
AFTER THE WARM FEW DAYS PRECEDING THE SHORT TERM. THE COLUMN REMAINS
QUITE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE DYNAMICS TAKING SHAPE ALOFT
WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG. THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND BECOMES ONE OF THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
CENTERS I CAN REMEMBER SEEING IN QUITE A WHILE LOCALLY. AHEAD OF IT
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WRF IS
NOTABLY SLOWER AND HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE GFS IS USUALLY
TOO FAST TO BRING THE COLD AIR ESP WHEN IT HAS TO NEGOTIATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN SO...FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL VERIFY. BY 12Z SATURDAY IT HAS ALREADY
SWUNG SOME FRIGHTFULLY STRONG CAA THROUGH THE REGION AND HAS A
POCKET OF 850MB -5C OVER WESTERN ZONES. THE (OLDER 12Z) ECMWF ARGUES
FOR FASTER AS WELL. IN THE END IT WILL LIKELY TAKE BETTER SAMPLING
OF THE MAIN VORT BY UA STATIONS TO RESOLVE THESE DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES WITH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER ON SATURDAY. EXTREME VORT CENTER PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTH. SO STRONG IN FACT THAT IT MAY WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NRN ZONES OUT OF AN OTHERWISE DRY COLUMN. MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SEEMINGLY STRUGGLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN SHOWING
HIGHS A `MERE` 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO/LOW 60S. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -2C TO -5C THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY EVEN A WELL MIXED AFTERNOON MAY STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AND IT WILL BE WELL MIXED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. BL
WINDS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WHICH COULD REPRESENT PEAK GUSTS FOR
SOME DOWNRIGHT NASTY WIND CHILLS. THE  MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD ABATES
ON SUNDAY FROM AN ADVECTION STANDPOINT BUT SHALLOWER MIXING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL YIELD HUGE TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO.
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST...EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES MAY NOT. THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT MAKING FOR MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL THUS BE SLOW, MORE A PROCESS OF SOLAR
HEATING THAN THERMAL ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR FROM LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR DURING DAYLIGHTS WED HRS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

ANTICIPATE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD CEILING OVER WIDESPREAD FOG. ACTIVE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM BUT WILL
ALLOW A LOW STRATUS SCT-BKN DECK WITH BASES AT 5H TO 1K FOOT THRU
14Z. 1-2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM...INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. BKN CU-SC CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE SHRA ACROSS THE FA AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACH THE FA LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN AND AS A RESULT WILL ENTERTAIN VICINITY SHRA
FOR NOW AFTER 00Z 10/30. WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WESTERLY THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE 6-12Z THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST. VFR
LATER THU THRU FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SIT OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WAITING FOR A STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY PROBLEMATIC AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WELL-OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT A
MAINTAINED WIND SPEED WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT STRONG SYSTEM ACTUALLY CAUSES LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH. FLAGS
LIKELY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTH ON SATURDAY. A NEW LOW CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING THEN
ENSUES WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE. ADVISORY
APPEARS LIKELY AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TOUGH TO RULE OUT. FLAGS
SHOULD CARRY INTO PART OF SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE WANING AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY ACCELERATES WHILE DEEPENING. IT MAY SEND SOME
BACKSWELL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL








000
FXUS62 KRAH 290743
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL
SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED
GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT
REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 18-
21Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 21-23Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 23-02Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.

THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD  EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN
LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290715
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.  WHILE
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING FROM THE
TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH
TYPICAL PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM
MID/UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL CONT TO SEE WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL
SWLY FLOW BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND THE
UPPER 70S COASTAL SXNS. PRECIP MOVES INTO NW COASTAL PLAINS AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AS AN INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE TO LIKELY ACRS NW SXNS THIS EVE AND
ERN SXNS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND PVA TRANSLATES EWD ACRS
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WITH
LWR 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LWR 60S IMMEDIATE COASTAL SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING
OF THE CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THU MORN WITH
LINGERING SHRA COAST ENDING BY AROUND NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM W
TO E WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65 TO 70. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE HELD
UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S...COULD SEE SOME SHRA OVER CSTL WTRS IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC LOW
PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST E OF ERN NC WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND LIFT INDICATED JUST N OF MID LVL LOW.  WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL AREAS...HIGHEST N AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS
CONT. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY SAT TO MID/UPR 50S AS APPEARS
THE STRONG CAA DOES NOT KICK IN TIL LATE.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS
SOUND SIDE FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
REALLY DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUN WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR
THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AND SOME PTCHY FOG TWD MORN IF WINDS DECOUPLE HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MENTION
OF LLWS EARLY THIS MORN AS SW LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDS PSBLE TONIGHT ACRS
THE TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SHRA SHOULD BE E OF TAF SITES BY EARLY THU MON WITH
VFR EXPECTED AS SKIES CLR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT
WITH CHC OF SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR WILL RETURN
LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SWLY WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT
TODAY. SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH SEAS CONTG AT 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT WEAK HIGH PRES IS REPLACED
BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING VERY
STRONG UPR TRF/LOW. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SAT AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WILL SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW
WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS.
CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING AOA 10 FT
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF







000
FXUS62 KRAH 290711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 933 PM TUESDAY...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT THOUGH STEADY SSW FOW OVER CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS ALREADY
EVIDENT AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE 50S. LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF A BAND OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH MOVES
STEADILY THOUGH SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL YIELD OVERNIGHT TEMPS 6-9 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290631
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
231 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 933 PM TUESDAY...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT THOUGH STEADY SSW FOW OVER CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS ALREADY
EVIDENT AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE 50S. LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF A BAND OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH MOVES
STEADILY THOUGH SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL YIELD OVERNIGHT TEMPS 6-9 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 40M WITH THE
FRONT...STARTING OUT AROUND 1335M EACH DAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL REGION-WIDE.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH IT
CLOSING OFF OVER US ON SATURDAY....WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT AND RATHER CHILLY SHOWERS WILL BE GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS ITS ORIGIN AND DATA COVERAGE.  HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE COULD BE HIGHER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A COASTAL LOW SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS AND THEN LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US...SETTLING OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING.
THICKNESSES FALLING TO NEAR 1305M WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...ESPECIALLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THUS...AS HAS
BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PRIOR FORECASTS...A FROST AND/OR FREEZE APPEARS
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 290624
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
224 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY
THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR FROM LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR DURING DAYLIGHTS WED HRS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD DUE TO POSSIBLE -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

ANTICIPATE A LOW STRATUS CLOUD CEILING OVER WIDESPREAD FOG. ACTIVE
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM BUT WILL
ALLOW A LOW STRATUS SCT-BKN DECK WITH BASES AT 5H TO 1K FOOT THRU
14Z. 1-2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM...INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. BKN CU-SC CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE SHRA ACROSS THE FA AS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACH THE FA LATE IN THE ISSUANCE PERIOD.
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN AND AS A RESULT WILL ENTERTAIN VICINITY SHRA
FOR NOW AFTER 00Z 10/30. WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WESTERLY THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE 6-12Z THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE COAST. VFR
LATER THU THRU FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT
OF THE N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290447
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/DEW POINT
TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS CONT MOVING IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH MILD TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL SEEMS
LIMITED DUE TO INCRG HIGH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT
DECOUPLING. NO CHANGE TO LOWS WHICH ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MID 50S
WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL SXNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM TEMPS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW...LOOKS LIKE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SC ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGE TO
COOLER WEATHER PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT DEEP SWATH
OF MOISTURE AND PVA. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
THU MORNING OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS TEMPS (MID 60S)
ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEMPS THU NIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND
50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID 60S.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT
THE REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES
WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AS UPPER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LOWS REACHING AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL BUT THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

WELL BLO NORMAL/COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY
THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUING MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AND SOME PTCHY FOG TWD MORN IF WINDS DECOUPLE HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MENTION
OF LLWS OVERNIGHT AS SW LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THU AND FRI
AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA. UPPER LOW PUSHES THRU THE AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG/COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
LATE SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NW
WINDS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SWLY WINDS INCRG
TO 10-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4 FT. THESE CONDS CONTINUE ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SHIFT NW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE
MARINE AREA WED NIGHT. SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. A SECONDARY AND VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT WAVE
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12FT IN THIS SURGE BUT
CUD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD/LEP







000
FXUS62 KILM 290238
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1038 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY
THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO AREAS OF FOG/LOW CIGS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
JUST TO THE WEST...MOVING EASTWARD. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...ANTICIPATE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH...COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS VS
FOG AS WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED. GIVEN
LOWERED CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT BOTH FOG/STRATUS IN GOING FORECAST.
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:40 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT
OF THE N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/III/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/DEW POINT
TRENDS. CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT MORE MILD AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ALSO...THE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN AND IF SOUTHERLY WINDS DO NOT DECOUPLE.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM TEMPS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW...LOOKS LIKE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SC ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGE TO
COOLER WEATHER PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT DEEP SWATH
OF MOISTURE AND PVA. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
THU MORNING OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS TEMPS (MID 60S)
ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEMPS THU NIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND
50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID 60S.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT
THE REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES
WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AS UPPER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LOWS REACHING AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL BUT THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

WELL BLO NORMAL/COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY
THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUING MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE US WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
MAYBE FOG IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. INCLUDED LLWS OVERNIGHT AS SW LLJ
INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THU AND FRI
AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA. UPPER LOW PUSHES THRU THE AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG/COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
LATE SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NW
WINDS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...NO CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. LATEST OBS SHOW
S/SW WINDS 5-15KT WITH SEAS 1-2FT. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
2-4FT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SHIFT NW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE
MARINE AREA WED NIGHT. SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. A SECONDARY AND VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT WAVE
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12FT IN THIS SURGE BUT
CUD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/CQD/LEP







000
FXUS62 KRAH 290131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
933 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 933 PM TUESDAY...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT THOUGH STEADY SSW FOW OVER CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS ALREADY
EVIDENT AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE 50S. LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF A BAND OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH MOVES
STEADILY THOUGH SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL YIELD OVERNIGHT TEMPS 6-9 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 40M WITH THE
FRONT...STARTING OUT AROUND 1335M EACH DAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL REGION-WIDE.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH IT
CLOSING OFF OVER US ON SATURDAY....WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT AND RATHER CHILLY SHOWERS WILL BE GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS ITS ORIGIN AND DATA COVERAGE.  HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE COULD BE HIGHER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A COASTAL LOW SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS AND THEN LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US...SETTLING OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING.
THICKNESSES FALLING TO NEAR 1305M WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...ESPECIALLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THUS...AS HAS
BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PRIOR FORECASTS...A FROST AND/OR FREEZE APPEARS
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KRWI AND KFAY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SPRINKLES OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
REACHING THE KINT/KGSO AREAS BETWEEN 18Z-21Z... THEN KRDU AROUND
23Z... AND KFAY AND KRWI AROUND 00Z/29.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
LATER WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL/PWB




000
FXUS62 KILM 282355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER
TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY
THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO AREAS OF FOG/LOW CIGS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS PREVAIL THIS
EVENING...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
JUST TO THE WEST...MOVING EASTWARD. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...ANTICIPATE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH...COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS VS
FOG AS WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED. GIVEN
LOWERED CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT BOTH FOG/STRATUS IN GOING FORECAST.
AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT CONTINUE
OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT
OF THE N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/III/RGZ





000
FXUS62 KRAH 282336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST A STEADY 5KT SWLY WIND. LOWS
IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 40M WITH THE
FRONT...STARTING OUT AROUND 1335M EACH DAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL REGION-WIDE.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH IT
CLOSING OFF OVER US ON SATURDAY....WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT AND RATHER CHILLY SHOWERS WILL BE GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS ITS ORIGIN AND DATA COVERAGE.  HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE COULD BE HIGHER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A COASTAL LOW SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS AND THEN LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US...SETTLING OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING.
THICKNESSES FALLING TO NEAR 1305M WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...ESPECIALLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THUS...AS HAS
BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PRIOR FORECASTS...A FROST AND/OR FREEZE APPEARS
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KRWI AND KFAY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SPRINKLES OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
REACHING THE KINT/KGSO AREAS BETWEEN 18Z-21Z... THEN KRDU AROUND
23Z... AND KFAY AND KRWI AROUND 00Z/29.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
LATER WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL/PWB




000
FXUS62 KMHX 282305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM TUE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH EVENING UPDATE. UPDATED
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT DIURNAL TRENDS. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING WITH MOIST BL. AT THIS TIME THINK LIGHT S/SWLY WINDS WILL
INHIBIT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MORE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SWLY
FLOW AND HIGHER TD`S AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM TEMPS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW...LOOKS LIKE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SC ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALLING THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGE TO
COOLER WEATHER PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT DEEP SWATH
OF MOISTURE AND PVA. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
THU MORNING OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS TEMPS (MID 60S)
ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEMPS THU NIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND
50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID 60S.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT
THE REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES
WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AS UPPER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LOWS REACHING AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL BUT THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

WELL BLO NORMAL/COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY
THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUING MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE US WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
MAYBE FOG IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. INCLUDED LLWS OVERNIGHT AS SW LLJ
INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THU AND FRI
AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA. UPPER LOW PUSHES THRU THE AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG/COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
LATE SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NW
WINDS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-10KT WITH SEAS
1-2FT. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
10-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4FT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SHIFT NW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE
MARINE AREA WED NIGHT. SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. A SECONDARY AND VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT WAVE
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12FT IN THIS SURGE BUT
CUD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KILM 281914
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING...BUT STILL GIVING US STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG EXPECTED...HOWEVER
WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO IT MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED.
THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE
N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/III








000
FXUS62 KILM 281912
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A
FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST
A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

LOCATION         WED OCT 29
WILMINGTON        82 1984
FLORENCE          84/1974
N. MYRTLE BEACH   83/1991

SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A
BIT OF A DRY STRETCH.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY
SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE
STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT.

WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE
BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP
VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL
BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH
TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER
LIGHT NW WINDS.

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING
CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND
COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON
MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING...BUT STILL GIVING US STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG EXPECTED...HOWEVER
WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO IT MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED.
THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND
FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E
OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP
THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS
EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY
THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY
AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO
EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY
SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER
TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM.

AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE
N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/III





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281909
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST A STEADY 5KT SWLY WIND. LOWS
IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 40M WITH THE
FRONT...STARTING OUT AROUND 1335M EACH DAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL REGION-WIDE.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH IT
CLOSING OFF OVER US ON SATURDAY....WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT AND RATHER CHILLY SHOWERS WILL BE GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS ITS ORIGIN AND DATA COVERAGE.  HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE COULD BE HIGHER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A COASTAL LOW SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS AND THEN LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US...SETTLING OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING.
THICKNESSES FALLING TO NEAR 1305M WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...ESPECIALLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THUS...AS HAS
BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PRIOR FORECASTS...A FROST AND/OR FREEZE APPEARS
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH:

        MAX         HI-MIN

RDU     86/1919     69/1984
GSO     86/1919     64/1919
FAY     87/1919     65/2010


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO
THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOWING BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WED 18Z-THU 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...WITH COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK
INTO MO/AR/TX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT OBS SHOW LINGERING AREA
OF PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NE SC/SE NC COAST. NARRE SHOWS FOG
SPREADING UP THE COAST...THOUGH BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS
TO BE FINALLY DISSIPATING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WITH MOIST
BL. AT THIS TIME THINK LIGHT S/SWLY WINDS WILL INHIBIT FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MORE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SWLY FLOW...LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM TEMPS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW...LOOKS LIKE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SC ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALLING THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGE TO
COOLER WEATHER PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT DEEP SWATH
OF MOISTURE AND PVA. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
THU MORNING OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS TEMPS (MID 60S)
ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEMPS THU NIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND
50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID 60S.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT
THE REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES
WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AS UPPER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LOWS REACHING AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL BUT THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

WELL BLO NORMAL/COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY
THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUING MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE US WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE
FOG...IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THU AND FRI
AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA. UPPER LOW PUSHES THRU THE AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG/COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
LATE SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NW
WINDS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-10KT WITH SEAS
1-2FT. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
10-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4FT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SHIFT NW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE
MARINE AREA WED NIGHT. SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. A SECONDARY AND VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT WAVE
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12FT IN THIS SURGE BUT
CUD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28:

NEW BERN (CRAVEN COUNTY AIRPORT)...85 IN 1984
CHERRY POINT MCAS..................85 IN 1984
JACKSONVILLE EOC (CO-OP SITE)......85 IN 2010
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT...81 IN 2009
BEAUFORT (MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD)...79 IN 2010

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BM/BTC/RF
MARINE...CQD/BTC
CLIMATE...HSA









000
FXUS62 KRAH 281841
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST A STEADY 5KT SWLY WIND. LOWS
IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM TUESDAY...

TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY ON
SATURDAY... BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW... AND LIMITED ANTECEDENT MOISTURE... POINT TO A DRY
PASSAGE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS A 1032 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY... BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FROST LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING... WITH A PROBABLE FREEZE ACROSS
TEH PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST... AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH:

        MAX         HI-MIN

RDU     86/1919     69/1984
GSO     86/1919     64/1919
FAY     87/1919     65/2010


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO
THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOWING BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WED 18Z-THU 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KILM 281802
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ABOVE 300 MB LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS BUT ANY THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS
DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER
OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY
EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR
SOME TIME HOWEVER.

COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY
MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A
SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.

MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID
50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON
HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST
TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED
FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND
PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.

MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS
EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR
JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP
WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60.
ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO
WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING...BUT STILL GIVING US STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG EXPECTED...HOWEVER
WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...SO IT MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE
GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING.
INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN
NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE
DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO
RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15
KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281756
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
156 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. CLEAR SKIES...A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S MOST LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE COAST. SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD
TIE OR EXCEED RECORDS FOR THIS DATE. THOSE SITES ARE LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROF...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. FORECASTING LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WITH MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED.  SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO VERY MILD TEMPS WITH MAINLY
LOWER 80S INLAND TO UPR 70S BEACHES. THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY WED WITH JUST SMALL CHC DEEP INLAND LATE. FRONT WILL CROSS WED
NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. CONT PREV FCST OF CHC POPS ALL AREAS
WED NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING ALONG THE CST THU MORN. CAA IN WAKE OF
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS MAINLY 65 TO 70 ON THU. POTENT UPR TRF
WILL SWING THRU FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING IN
BEHIND IT. ADDED SLIGHT POPS NRN TIER LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT
JUST AHEAD OF SHRT WAVE AS FORCING LOOKS GOOD AND MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHRA DESPITE DRY AIRMASS. MAIN STORY THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH SAT AND SUN.
LOWS INLAND WILL BE IN THE 30S SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH FROST
THREAT ESPCLY SUN NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE MON AS HGTS ALOFT RISE WITH 60 TO 65 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE US WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE FOG...IF WINDS BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

VFR IN THE SHORT TERM. LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
LATER THU AND FRI AS INIT HIGH PRES CROSSES. STRONG SHRT WAVE WILL
CROSS JUST TO THE N FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH SMALL CHC OF LIGHT
SHRA NRN TIER...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHLD REMAIN VFR. STRONG/COLD HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN LATER SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND BREEZY NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW PRED S/SW WINDS 10KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 1-2FT. SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING MOVES
EAST TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL CONT WED AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. NNE WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP IN
WAKE OF FRONT LATE WED NIGHT AND CONT INTO FRI. THESE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. CANT
RULE OUT SOME 6 FT SEAS PER LOCAL SWAN BUT WILL CAP AT 5 FT FOR NOW.
SECONDARY FRONT ASSOC WITH STRONG UPR TRF WILL CROSS LATER FRI NIGHT
WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BY SAT MORN AND CONT THRU
THE DAY. POSS MARGINAL GALES CNTRL AND NRN WTRS IN GUSTS SAT WITH
SEAS OVER OUTER WTRS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28:

NEW BERN (CRAVEN COUNTY AIRPORT)...85 IN 1984
CHERRY POINT MCAS..................85 IN 1984
JACKSONVILLE EOC (CO-OP SITE)......85 IN 2010
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT...81 IN 2009
BEAUFORT (MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD)...79 IN 2010

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/CQD
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KRAH 281741
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM TUESDAY...

OVERVIEW: DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL DRIFT EAST
TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SEWD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.

TODAY: LINGERING DRY AIR RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
OVERWHELMED BY STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WHICH IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY...EVIDENT BY THE BANK OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND EASTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRR GUIDANCE OVERCAST INDICATE THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT/DISPERSE (NOT UNTIL BETWEEN 15-17Z) OWING TO A STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION FROM LAST NIGHTS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE SLOW TO WARM IN THE AREAS
WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS LINGER LONGEST...MAKING FOR A HODGEPODGE OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER FROM 18Z ONWARD...ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE SURGE...BUT LIKELY
A LITTLE TOO LATE TO MAKE A RUN AT RECORD HIGHS AT FAY AND RDU.
HIGHS 79 TO 84.

TONIGHT: AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST SSW STIRRING IN THE 55-60 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY FALL OVER CENTRAL NC...ON THE ORDER OF
ABOUT 50 METERS/12 HR THROUGH THE DAY WED...DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH
ALOFT THAT SPANS BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL US THIS MORNING. WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY WED...THE NORTHERN ONE...AND PRECEDING
DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BROKEN BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS. DESPITE
THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
WILL OTHERWISE HINDER BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60S DURING FROPA
NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING OVER THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT...MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY BOTH MULTI-
LAYERED...MOSTLY CLOUDINESS...AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS ON AVERAGE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLEARING AND COOLER AS THE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EAST AND POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA SPREAD EAST INTO
NC. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM TUESDAY...

TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY ON
SATURDAY... BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW... AND LIMITED ANTECEDENT MOISTURE... POINT TO A DRY
PASSAGE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS A 1032 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY... BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FROST LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING... WITH A PROBABLE FREEZE ACROSS
TEH PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST... AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH:

        MAX         HI-MIN

RDU     86/1919     69/1984
GSO     86/1919     64/1919
FAY     87/1919     65/2010


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO
THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOWING BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WED 18Z-THU 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. CLEAR SKIES...A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S MOST LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE COAST. SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD
TIE OR EXCEED RECORDS FOR THIS DATE. THOSE SITES ARE LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROF...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. FORECASTING LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
WITH MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED.  SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO VERY MILD TEMPS WITH MAINLY
LOWER 80S INLAND TO UPR 70S BEACHES. THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY WED WITH JUST SMALL CHC DEEP INLAND LATE. FRONT WILL CROSS WED
NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. CONT PREV FCST OF CHC POPS ALL AREAS
WED NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING ALONG THE CST THU MORN. CAA IN WAKE OF
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS MAINLY 65 TO 70 ON THU. POTENT UPR TRF
WILL SWING THRU FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING IN
BEHIND IT. ADDED SLIGHT POPS NRN TIER LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT
JUST AHEAD OF SHRT WAVE AS FORCING LOOKS GOOD AND MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHRA DESPITE DRY AIRMASS. MAIN STORY THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH SAT AND SUN.
LOWS INLAND WILL BE IN THE 30S SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH FROST
THREAT ESPCLY SUN NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE MON AS HGTS ALOFT RISE WITH 60 TO 65 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM TUE...VFR IN THE SHORT TERM. LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
LATER THU AND FRI AS INIT HIGH PRES CROSSES. STRONG SHRT WAVE WILL
CROSS JUST TO THE N FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT WITH SMALL CHC OF LIGHT
SHRA NRN TIER...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHLD REMAIN VFR. STRONG/COLD HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN LATER SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND BREEZY NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW PRED S/SW WINDS 10KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 1-2FT. SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING MOVES
EAST TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL CONT WED AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. NNE WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP IN
WAKE OF FRONT LATE WED NIGHT AND CONT INTO FRI. THESE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. CANT
RULE OUT SOME 6 FT SEAS PER LOCAL SWAN BUT WILL CAP AT 5 FT FOR NOW.
SECONDARY FRONT ASSOC WITH STRONG UPR TRF WILL CROSS LATER FRI NIGHT
WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BY SAT MORN AND CONT THRU
THE DAY. POSS MARGINAL GALES CNTRL AND NRN WTRS IN GUSTS SAT WITH
SEAS OVER OUTER WTRS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28:

NEW BERN (CRAVEN COUNTY AIRPORT)...85 IN 1984
CHERRY POINT MCAS..................85 IN 1984
JACKSONVILLE EOC (CO-OP SITE)......85 IN 2010
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT...81 IN 2009
BEAUFORT (MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD)...79 IN 2010

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA/CQD
CLIMATE...HSA







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