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000
FXUS62 KILM 011146
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TODAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
FORMING OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BEYOND. SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD ATTM...WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT
AND PUSH OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE FA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS
NORTH OF THE FA TODAY...WITH IT QUICKLY LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE
FA BY TONIGHT. INITIALLY...THE SSE-S RETURN FLOW WILL BE LIGHT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COLD DENSE AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE BETTER WAA WILL OCCUR AT ALL
LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...AND REDEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL S/W TROF TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC LOW. THE EASTWARD MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE MON. WITH BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING TAPPED WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TO REMAIN FAR TOO MILD FOR
ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PCPN ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
DROP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT AS THE WAA ENGULFS THE FA OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY EITHER HOLD STEADY OR LIKELY CLIMB DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM NOW MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES ACROSS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH A VERY BREEZY AND COLD TWELVE HOURS OR SO.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MAV HAS 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR 21 UTC
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN WILMINGTON. WE DONT SEE THESE VALUES SHOW UP
VERY MUCH OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 50 DEGREES. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEUTRAL ADVECTION AT 850MB BUT A SECONDARY VORT WILL ALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROBLEMATIC SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS TO SHEAR OUT THE
SHORTWAVE AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. I HAVE ONCE AGAIN DECREASED POPS INCREMENTALLY TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. IN FACT...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ANY POPS IN THE PERIOD MAY
BE RELEGATED TO THE STRONG TRAILING SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS
AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE AS TIME-HEIGHT
ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND AS A RESULT WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...WITH VCSH/-RA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO AOB 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL/PATCHY FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WILL OBSERVE BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO START THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RATHER
QUICKLY. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING LIGHT SE-S RETURN FLOW TO INITIALLY COMMENCE.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
DRAMATICALLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE
INTENSIFYING LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE
LOOKING AT S-SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...IE.MME AND
MMG RESPECTIVELY GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY. ONLY CHANGE TO
THE SCA WILL BE TO COMMENCE IT AN HOUR EARLIER AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WITH WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INCREASING DAYTIME MON...A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THEY TOO WILL BE
AT THEIR LOWEST HEIGHTS THIS MORNING AT 1 TO 2 FT. LOOK FOR THEM
TO BUILD SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT. SIG SEAS WILL
EXPLODE TO THE UPSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY DAYBREAK MON. NO
APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL OUT THERE...THUS SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...IT WILL BE A ROUGH AND TUMBLE 12-18 HOURS FOR
THE MARINE COMMUNITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
STRONG FRONT THAT WILL STILL BE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL POWER ACROSS
AROUND MIDDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING. WITH DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS UP TO
850MB...GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS MARINE
BULLETIN FOR 41013 HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED GALES. I HAVE
RAISED A GALE WATCH FROM 1200 UTC MONDAY THROUGH 0600 UTC TUESDAY.
AS QUICKLY AS WINDS RAMP UP...THEY SEEMINGLY DROP AS QUICKLY AND BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE U.S. IRONICALLY ENOUGH...SEAS WONT BE THAT HIGH
CONSIDERING THE POWERFUL WINDS DUE TO THE CHANGEABLE NATURE OF THE
FETCH AND LACKING LONGEVITY. EXPECT 4-10 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL
BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND THE DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
FIELDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. SEAS
INCREASE FROM 1-2 FEET EARLY TO 3-5 FEET LATER THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 011146
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TODAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
FORMING OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BEYOND. SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD ATTM...WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT
AND PUSH OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE FA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS
NORTH OF THE FA TODAY...WITH IT QUICKLY LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE
FA BY TONIGHT. INITIALLY...THE SSE-S RETURN FLOW WILL BE LIGHT
INTO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COLD DENSE AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE BETTER WAA WILL OCCUR AT ALL
LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...AND REDEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL S/W TROF TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC LOW. THE EASTWARD MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE MON. WITH BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING TAPPED WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TO REMAIN FAR TOO MILD FOR
ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PCPN ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
DROP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT AS THE WAA ENGULFS THE FA OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY EITHER HOLD STEADY OR LIKELY CLIMB DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM NOW MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES ACROSS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH A VERY BREEZY AND COLD TWELVE HOURS OR SO.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MAV HAS 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR 21 UTC
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN WILMINGTON. WE DONT SEE THESE VALUES SHOW UP
VERY MUCH OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 50 DEGREES. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEUTRAL ADVECTION AT 850MB BUT A SECONDARY VORT WILL ALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROBLEMATIC SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS TO SHEAR OUT THE
SHORTWAVE AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. I HAVE ONCE AGAIN DECREASED POPS INCREMENTALLY TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. IN FACT...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ANY POPS IN THE PERIOD MAY
BE RELEGATED TO THE STRONG TRAILING SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS
AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE AS TIME-HEIGHT
ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND AS A RESULT WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...WITH VCSH/-RA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO AOB 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL/PATCHY FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WILL OBSERVE BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO START THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RATHER
QUICKLY. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING LIGHT SE-S RETURN FLOW TO INITIALLY COMMENCE.
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL
DRAMATICALLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE
INTENSIFYING LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE
LOOKING AT S-SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...IE.MME AND
MMG RESPECTIVELY GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY. ONLY CHANGE TO
THE SCA WILL BE TO COMMENCE IT AN HOUR EARLIER AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WITH WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INCREASING DAYTIME MON...A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THEY TOO WILL BE
AT THEIR LOWEST HEIGHTS THIS MORNING AT 1 TO 2 FT. LOOK FOR THEM
TO BUILD SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT. SIG SEAS WILL
EXPLODE TO THE UPSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY DAYBREAK MON. NO
APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL OUT THERE...THUS SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...IT WILL BE A ROUGH AND TUMBLE 12-18 HOURS FOR
THE MARINE COMMUNITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
STRONG FRONT THAT WILL STILL BE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL POWER ACROSS
AROUND MIDDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING. WITH DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS UP TO
850MB...GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS MARINE
BULLETIN FOR 41013 HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED GALES. I HAVE
RAISED A GALE WATCH FROM 1200 UTC MONDAY THROUGH 0600 UTC TUESDAY.
AS QUICKLY AS WINDS RAMP UP...THEY SEEMINGLY DROP AS QUICKLY AND BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE U.S. IRONICALLY ENOUGH...SEAS WONT BE THAT HIGH
CONSIDERING THE POWERFUL WINDS DUE TO THE CHANGEABLE NATURE OF THE
FETCH AND LACKING LONGEVITY. EXPECT 4-10 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL
BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND THE DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
FIELDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. SEAS
INCREASE FROM 1-2 FEET EARLY TO 3-5 FEET LATER THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL





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000
FXUS62 KMHX 011140
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST ACROSS
THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST
OF THE CWA AS HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH AND THICKEN FROM THE WEST.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK TO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATER THIS
EVENING. WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING THE LOW/MID
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE STARTS TO ARRIVE THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND VERY STRONG MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND RAMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE AT THAT POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH SEEM LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE 48 TO 52 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE MONDAY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
MIDWESTERN STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA/MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASE ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST MID
AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE
QUART TO ONE HALF INCH AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL
END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE
COAST. 03Z SREF PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 18-21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING. NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING
THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON IN POST-FRONTAL
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY
COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S INLAND TO
LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND
1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY BUILD BACK NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S SOUTH.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM THOUGH SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OFF THE COAST
NEAR THE GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN POPS INCREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OPERATIONAL GEM SUGGESTS LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA THOUGH LACKS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. GFS ENSEMBLES AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS KEEPS MOST MOISTURE OFF THE COAST WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SC/NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS DROP OFF
QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 0.40 INCHES WITH A VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER...BELOW 700 MB. GIVEN ITS LATE DAY 5/6 AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY SEEING THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CONFIDENCE INCREASING TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY 00Z THEN AS THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AFTER ABOUT 06Z...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
DROP TO MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND VSBYS AROUND 5 MILES INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND MAY SEE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...RECONFIGURED SOME OF THE HEADLINES TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT THINKING. NOW HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
SOUNDS FOR MONDAY. GALE WARNING NOW UP FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS...BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND LATER IN
THE DAY.

WINDS GENERALLY SW/W ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS
MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTING TO 21 KNOTS AT
DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET BUT HAVE BEEN SEEING
SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY AS WATER TEMPERATURES THERE
ARE AT 71 DEGREES. THINK THIS IS A FAIRLY LOCALIZED PHENOMENON AND
STILL THINK THOSE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. PER LOCAL SWAN MODEL...SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10
FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS BY LATER TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. POST- FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED WITH THIS
MORNINGS PACKAGE. NW WINDS 25-35 KT MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...ESP FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH
III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH
APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 011140
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST ACROSS
THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST
OF THE CWA AS HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH AND THICKEN FROM THE WEST.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK TO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATER THIS
EVENING. WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING THE LOW/MID
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE STARTS TO ARRIVE THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND VERY STRONG MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND RAMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE AT THAT POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH SEEM LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE 48 TO 52 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE MONDAY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
MIDWESTERN STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA/MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASE ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST MID
AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE
QUART TO ONE HALF INCH AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL
END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE
COAST. 03Z SREF PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 18-21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING. NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING
THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON IN POST-FRONTAL
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY
COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S INLAND TO
LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND
1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY BUILD BACK NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S SOUTH.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM THOUGH SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OFF THE COAST
NEAR THE GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN POPS INCREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OPERATIONAL GEM SUGGESTS LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA THOUGH LACKS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. GFS ENSEMBLES AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS KEEPS MOST MOISTURE OFF THE COAST WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SC/NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS DROP OFF
QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 0.40 INCHES WITH A VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER...BELOW 700 MB. GIVEN ITS LATE DAY 5/6 AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY SEEING THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CONFIDENCE INCREASING TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY 00Z THEN AS THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AFTER ABOUT 06Z...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
DROP TO MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND VSBYS AROUND 5 MILES INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND MAY SEE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...RECONFIGURED SOME OF THE HEADLINES TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT THINKING. NOW HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
SOUNDS FOR MONDAY. GALE WARNING NOW UP FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS...BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND LATER IN
THE DAY.

WINDS GENERALLY SW/W ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS
MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTING TO 21 KNOTS AT
DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET BUT HAVE BEEN SEEING
SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY AS WATER TEMPERATURES THERE
ARE AT 71 DEGREES. THINK THIS IS A FAIRLY LOCALIZED PHENOMENON AND
STILL THINK THOSE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. PER LOCAL SWAN MODEL...SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10
FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS BY LATER TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. POST- FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED WITH THIS
MORNINGS PACKAGE. NW WINDS 25-35 KT MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...ESP FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH
III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH
APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KRAH 011138
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
637 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WHILE THE BLANKET OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEMPER INSOLATION A BIT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD AID
IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A GOOD 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW...LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF INTENSE 180-200 H5
FALLS...WILL TRACK EWD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE ...MOVING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY MORNING. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY
LLJ...WILL SUPPORT A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS AS AN
EASTWARD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS  THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z IN THE WEST TO 15Z IN THE EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE... LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL DRY AIR RACING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~6.5 C/KM WITH
MUCAPE OF ONLY 100-150 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THUS VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER.   EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN AND STRONG WAA. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
...RISING INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SHIFT
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 15Z MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD MARK THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD/CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT AND LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LAGGING A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD.

STRONG POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN
WEST TO EAST CLEARING AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER AND 25-30KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
OCCUR AT OR BEFORE SOLAR NOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW TO UPPER
50S/NEAR 60 SE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 40S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD HELP FOR
A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT MOVING
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT 300MB JET MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A 500MB JET JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND IN VICINITY OF THE JETS ALOFT BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS PROVIDE FOR SOME MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLUMN DRYING TO FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA IS IN AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH WITH K INDICES
NEGATIVE...AND THE MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT CURRENTLY GET BELOW ABOUT
-20C AND THE AIR MASS BELOW THAT IS QUITE DRY. A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY
BROKEN CLOUDS IS ONLY ANTICIPATED EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON INCREASING SUN. SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT 500MB
JET JUST TO OUR NORTH AND JUST MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
NORMAL...45 TO 50 FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ON THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER SOME PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FEW
VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH SUPPRESSES
THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKS SUCH THAT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WOULD RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL
CLOSE...THOUGH...AND FOR WHAT THEY ARE WORTH THE CANADIAN AND THE
DGEX ARE STILL FARTHER NORTH AND WET FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT
LEAST FOR THURSDAY. THE HIGHER QPF MODELS HAVE PARTIAL THICKNESSES
THAT WOULD BE LIQUID ON THURSDAY FOR THE AREA...WHILE THE DRIER
GUIDANCE IS COLDER. THE GFS HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED THE COLDER
WAY...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY ON THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE TRIAD.

COMPLICATING THINGS...THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A CORRESPONDINGLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A NOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SURFACE
LOW TRACK. LIKE THE CANADIAN AND THE DGEX...THICKNESSES ARE WARM FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR SETTLES IN. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION MAY...OVERALL...HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY LOWER...WITH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER IN EACH OF ITS LAST
FOUR RUNS...GFS ENSEMBLES ON THURSDAY STILL HAVE SOME MEMBERS WITH A
MORE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRECIPITATION. THE PRUDENT COURSE FOR
THURSDAY IS TO MAINTAIN SOME CHANCES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES WEST OF
ABOUT U.S. 1 AND CHANCES EAST...KEEPING PRECIPITATION LIQUID AND
CONFINED TO THURSDAY UNTIL OVERALL FEATURES RESOLVE THEMSELVES MORE
CLEARLY. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THICKNESSES AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED DEGREE OF ANY MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S. THERE HAVE BEEN
HUGE SWINGS IN MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...40S TO 50S AND BACK
AGAIN...AND 40S TO 50S TO 30S IN THE TRIAD ON PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF
THE ECMWF MOS. BY FRIDAY SOME CONFIDENCE THAT MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 30S MODERATING SOME FOR SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AND
MOSTLY IN THE 40S THEN...AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE 40M TO 50M
VERSUS VALUES OF AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AT 10 TO 15KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON.  AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES VIA STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-
06Z MON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DANGEROUS W/NW CROSSWINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS.  A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL
PERSIST MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010920
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
420 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN TO IOWA. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATER THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE STARTS TO ARRIVE THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND VERY STRONG MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND RAMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE AT THAT POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH SEEM LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE 48 TO 52 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE MONDAY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
MIDWESTERN STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA/MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASE ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST MID
AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE
QUART TO ONE HALF INCH AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL
END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE
COAST. 03Z SREF PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 18-21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING. NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING
THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON IN POST-FRONTAL
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY
COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S INLAND TO
LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND
1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY BUILD BACK NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S SOUTH.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM THOUGH SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OFF THE COAST
NEAR THE GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN POPS INCREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OPERATIONAL GEM SUGGESTS LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA THOUGH LACKS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. GFS ENSEMBLES AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS KEEPS MOST MOISTURE OFF THE COAST WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SC/NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS DROP OFF
QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 0.40 INCHES WITH A VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER...BELOW 700 MB. GIVEN ITS LATE DAY 5/6 AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY SEEING THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS DELAYING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED JUST A LOWER OF
CEILINGS TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY 01Z OR SO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND MAY SEE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...WINDS GENERALLY SW/W/NW ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT
GUSTING TO 17 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FEET BUT HAVE BEEN SEEING SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY AS
WATER TEMPERATURES THERE ARE AT 71 DEGREES. THINK THIS IS A FAIRLY
LOCALIZED PHENOMENON AND THAT THOSE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HAVE INITIATED A GALE WATCH FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND
AND COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTHWARD BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT. PER LOCAL SWAN MODEL...SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
10 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS BY LATER TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. POST- FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED WITH THIS
MORNINGS PACKAGE. NW WINDS 25-35 KT MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...ESP FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH
III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH
APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010920
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
420 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN TO IOWA. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATER THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE STARTS TO ARRIVE THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND VERY STRONG MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND RAMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE AT THAT POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH SEEM LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE 48 TO 52 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE MONDAY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
MIDWESTERN STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA/MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASE ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST MID
AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE
QUART TO ONE HALF INCH AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL
END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE
COAST. 03Z SREF PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 18-21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING. NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING
THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON IN POST-FRONTAL
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY
COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S INLAND TO
LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND
1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY BUILD BACK NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S SOUTH.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM THOUGH SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OFF THE COAST
NEAR THE GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN POPS INCREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OPERATIONAL GEM SUGGESTS LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA THOUGH LACKS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. GFS ENSEMBLES AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS KEEPS MOST MOISTURE OFF THE COAST WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SC/NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS DROP OFF
QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 0.40 INCHES WITH A VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER...BELOW 700 MB. GIVEN ITS LATE DAY 5/6 AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY SEEING THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS DELAYING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED JUST A LOWER OF
CEILINGS TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY 01Z OR SO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND MAY SEE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...WINDS GENERALLY SW/W/NW ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT
GUSTING TO 17 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5
FEET BUT HAVE BEEN SEEING SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY AS
WATER TEMPERATURES THERE ARE AT 71 DEGREES. THINK THIS IS A FAIRLY
LOCALIZED PHENOMENON AND THAT THOSE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HAVE INITIATED A GALE WATCH FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND
AND COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTHWARD BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT. PER LOCAL SWAN MODEL...SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
10 FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS BY LATER TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. POST- FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED WITH THIS
MORNINGS PACKAGE. NW WINDS 25-35 KT MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...ESP FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH
III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH
APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KILM 010829
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TODAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
FORMING OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BEYOND. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD ATTM...WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AND
PUSH OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS NORTH OF THE FA
TODAY...WITH IT QUICKLY LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE FA BY TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...THE SSE-S RETURN FLOW WILL BE LIGHT INTO THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD DENSE AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...THE BETTER WAA WILL OCCUR AT ALL LEVELS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS CF IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTENSIFYING LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND REDEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL S/W TROF TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW. THE EASTWARD
MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE
MON. WITH BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAPPED WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TO
REMAIN FAR TOO MILD FOR ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PCPN ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
DROP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT AS THE WAA ENGULFS THE FA OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY EITHER HOLD STEADY OR LIKELY CLIMB DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM NOW MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES ACROSS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH A VERY BREEZY AND COLD TWELVE HOURS OR SO.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MAV HAS 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR 21 UTC
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN WILMINGTON. WE DONT SEE THESE VALUES SHOW UP
VERY MUCH OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 50 DEGREES. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEUTRAL ADVECTION AT 850MB BUT A SECONDARY VORT WILL ALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROBLEMATIC SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS TO SHEAR OUT THE
SHORTWAVE AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. I HAVE ONCE AGAIN DECREASED POPS INCREMENTALLY TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. IN FACT...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ANY POPS IN THE PERIOD MAY
BE RELEGATED TO THE STRONG TRAILING SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD.
A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN CALM
THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS AROUND 12K THROUGH
18Z. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING...CEILINGS MAY DROP TO
NEAR MVFR LEVELS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT ALL LEVELS. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LIQUID PCPN AHEAD OF IT WILL HAVE REACHED THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS ISSUANCE PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ALLOWING SE-S
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF
IT...WILL RESULT WITH INCREASING SSW-SW WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WILL OBSERVE BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO START THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY.
CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING LIGHT SE-S RETURN FLOW TO INITIALLY COMMENCE. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL DRAMATICALLY
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING AT S-SSW
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...IE.MME AND MMG RESPECTIVELY
...GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY. ONLY CHANGE TO THE SCA WILL BE
TO COMMENCE IT AN HOUR EARLIER AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH WIND SPEEDS
FURTHER INCREASING DAYTIME MON...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THEY TOO WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST HEIGHTS THIS
MORNING AT 1 TO 2 FT. LOOK FOR THEM TO BUILD SLIGHTLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT. SIG SEAS WILL EXPLODE TO THE UPSIDE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY DAYBREAK MON. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL OUT THERE...THUS
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN
WAVES.


SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...IT WILL BE A ROUGH AND TUMBLE 12-18 HOURS FOR
THE MARINE COMMUNITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
STRONG FRONT THAT WILL STILL BE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL POWER ACROSS
AROUND MIDDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING. WITH DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS UP TO
850MB...GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS MARINE
BULLETIN FOR 41013 HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED GALES. I HAVE
RAISED A GALE WATCH FROM 1200 UTC MONDAY THROUGH 0600 UTC TUESDAY.
AS QUICKLY AS WINDS RAMP UP...THEY SEEMINGLY DROP AS QUICKLY AND BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE U.S. IRONICALLY ENOUGH...SEAS WONT BE THAT HIGH
CONSIDERING THE POWERFUL WINDS DUE TO THE CHANGEABLE NATURE OF THE
FETCH AND LACKING LONGEVITY. EXPECT 4-10 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET TUESDAY.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL
BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND THE DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
FIELDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. SEAS
INCREASE FROM 1-2 FEET EARLY TO 3-5 FEET LATER THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 010829
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TODAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
FORMING OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BEYOND. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD ATTM...WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AND
PUSH OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS NORTH OF THE FA
TODAY...WITH IT QUICKLY LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE FA BY TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...THE SSE-S RETURN FLOW WILL BE LIGHT INTO THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD DENSE AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...THE BETTER WAA WILL OCCUR AT ALL LEVELS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS CF IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTENSIFYING LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND REDEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL S/W TROF TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW. THE EASTWARD
MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE
MON. WITH BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAPPED WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TO
REMAIN FAR TOO MILD FOR ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PCPN ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
DROP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT AS THE WAA ENGULFS THE FA OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY EITHER HOLD STEADY OR LIKELY CLIMB DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM NOW MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES ACROSS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH A VERY BREEZY AND COLD TWELVE HOURS OR SO.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MAV HAS 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR 21 UTC
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN WILMINGTON. WE DONT SEE THESE VALUES SHOW UP
VERY MUCH OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 50 DEGREES. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEUTRAL ADVECTION AT 850MB BUT A SECONDARY VORT WILL ALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROBLEMATIC SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS TO SHEAR OUT THE
SHORTWAVE AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. I HAVE ONCE AGAIN DECREASED POPS INCREMENTALLY TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. IN FACT...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ANY POPS IN THE PERIOD MAY
BE RELEGATED TO THE STRONG TRAILING SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD.
A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN CALM
THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS AROUND 12K THROUGH
18Z. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING...CEILINGS MAY DROP TO
NEAR MVFR LEVELS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT ALL LEVELS. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LIQUID PCPN AHEAD OF IT WILL HAVE REACHED THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS ISSUANCE PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ALLOWING SE-S
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF
IT...WILL RESULT WITH INCREASING SSW-SW WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WILL OBSERVE BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO START THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY.
CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING LIGHT SE-S RETURN FLOW TO INITIALLY COMMENCE. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL DRAMATICALLY
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING AT S-SSW
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...IE.MME AND MMG RESPECTIVELY
...GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY. ONLY CHANGE TO THE SCA WILL BE
TO COMMENCE IT AN HOUR EARLIER AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH WIND SPEEDS
FURTHER INCREASING DAYTIME MON...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THEY TOO WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST HEIGHTS THIS
MORNING AT 1 TO 2 FT. LOOK FOR THEM TO BUILD SLIGHTLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT. SIG SEAS WILL EXPLODE TO THE UPSIDE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY DAYBREAK MON. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL OUT THERE...THUS
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN
WAVES.


SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...IT WILL BE A ROUGH AND TUMBLE 12-18 HOURS FOR
THE MARINE COMMUNITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
STRONG FRONT THAT WILL STILL BE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL POWER ACROSS
AROUND MIDDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING. WITH DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS UP TO
850MB...GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS MARINE
BULLETIN FOR 41013 HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED GALES. I HAVE
RAISED A GALE WATCH FROM 1200 UTC MONDAY THROUGH 0600 UTC TUESDAY.
AS QUICKLY AS WINDS RAMP UP...THEY SEEMINGLY DROP AS QUICKLY AND BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE U.S. IRONICALLY ENOUGH...SEAS WONT BE THAT HIGH
CONSIDERING THE POWERFUL WINDS DUE TO THE CHANGEABLE NATURE OF THE
FETCH AND LACKING LONGEVITY. EXPECT 4-10 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET TUESDAY.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL
BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND THE DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
FIELDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. SEAS
INCREASE FROM 1-2 FEET EARLY TO 3-5 FEET LATER THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR








000
FXUS62 KRAH 010755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
253 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WHILE THE BLANKET OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEMPER INSOLATION A BIT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD AID
IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A GOOD 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE E-SEWD
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW...LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF INTENSE 180-200 H5
FALLS...WILL TRACK EWD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE ...MOVING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY MORNING. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY
LLJ...WILL SUPPORT A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS AS AN
EASTWARD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS  THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z IN THE WEST TO 15Z IN THE EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE... LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL DRY AIR RACING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~6.5 C/KM WITH
MUCAPE OF ONLY 100-150 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THUS VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER.   EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN AND STRONG WAA. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
...RISING INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SHIFT
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 15Z MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD MARK THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD/CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT AND LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LAGGING A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD.

STRONG POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN
WEST TO EAST CLEARING AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER AND 25-30KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
OCCUR AT OR BEFORE SOLAR NOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW TO UPPER
50S/NEAR 60 SE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 40S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD HELP FOR
A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT MOVING
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT 300MB JET MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A 500MB JET JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND IN VICINITY OF THE JETS ALOFT BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS PROVIDE FOR SOME MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLUMN DRYING TO FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA IS IN AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH WITH K INDICES
NEGATIVE...AND THE MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT CURRENTLY GET BELOW ABOUT
-20C AND THE AIR MASS BELOW THAT IS QUITE DRY. A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY
BROKEN CLOUDS IS ONLY ANTICIPATED EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON INCREASING SUN. SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT 500MB
JET JUST TO OUR NORTH AND JUST MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
NORMAL...45 TO 50 FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ON THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER SOME PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FEW
VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH SUPPRESSES
THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKS SUCH THAT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WOULD RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL
CLOSE...THOUGH...AND FOR WHAT THEY ARE WORTH THE CANADIAN AND THE
DGEX ARE STILL FARTHER NORTH AND WET FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT
LEAST FOR THURSDAY. THE HIGHER QPF MODELS HAVE PARTIAL THICKNESSES
THAT WOULD BE LIQUID ON THURSDAY FOR THE AREA...WHILE THE DRIER
GUIDANCE IS COLDER. THE GFS HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED THE COLDER
WAY...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY ON THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE TRIAD.

COMPLICATING THINGS...THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A CORRESPONDINGLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A NOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SURFACE
LOW TRACK. LIKE THE CANADIAN AND THE DGEX...THICKNESSES ARE WARM FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR SETTLES IN. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION MAY...OVERALL...HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY LOWER...WITH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER IN EACH OF ITS LAST
FOUR RUNS...GFS ENSEMBLES ON THURSDAY STILL HAVE SOME MEMBERS WITH A
MORE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRECIPITATION. THE PRUDENT COURSE FOR
THURSDAY IS TO MAINTAIN SOME CHANCES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES WEST OF
ABOUT U.S. 1 AND CHANCES EAST...KEEPING PRECIPITATION LIQUID AND
CONFINED TO THURSDAY UNTIL OVERALL FEATURES RESOLVE THEMSELVES MORE
CLEARLY. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THICKNESSES AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED DEGREE OF ANY MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S. THERE HAVE BEEN
HUGE SWINGS IN MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...40S TO 50S AND BACK
AGAIN...AND 40S TO 50S TO 30S IN THE TRIAD ON PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF
THE ECMWF MOS. BY FRIDAY SOME CONFIDENCE THAT MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 30S MODERATING SOME FOR SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AND
MOSTLY IN THE 40S THEN...AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE 40M TO 50M
VERSUS VALUES OF AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21-00Z
WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AT 10 TO 15KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON.  AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES VIA STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-
06Z MON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DANGEROUS W/NW CROSSWINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS.  A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL
PERSIST MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
253 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WHILE THE BLANKET OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEMPER INSOLATION A BIT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD AID
IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A GOOD 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE E-SEWD
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW...LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF INTENSE 180-200 H5
FALLS...WILL TRACK EWD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE ...MOVING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY MORNING. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY
LLJ...WILL SUPPORT A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS AS AN
EASTWARD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS  THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z IN THE WEST TO 15Z IN THE EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE... LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL DRY AIR RACING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~6.5 C/KM WITH
MUCAPE OF ONLY 100-150 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THUS VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER.   EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN AND STRONG WAA. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
...RISING INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SHIFT
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 15Z MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD MARK THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD/CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT AND LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LAGGING A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD.

STRONG POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN
WEST TO EAST CLEARING AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER AND 25-30KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
OCCUR AT OR BEFORE SOLAR NOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW TO UPPER
50S/NEAR 60 SE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 40S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD HELP FOR
A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT MOVING
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT 300MB JET MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A 500MB JET JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND IN VICINITY OF THE JETS ALOFT BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS PROVIDE FOR SOME MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLUMN DRYING TO FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA IS IN AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH WITH K INDICES
NEGATIVE...AND THE MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT CURRENTLY GET BELOW ABOUT
-20C AND THE AIR MASS BELOW THAT IS QUITE DRY. A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY
BROKEN CLOUDS IS ONLY ANTICIPATED EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON INCREASING SUN. SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT 500MB
JET JUST TO OUR NORTH AND JUST MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
NORMAL...45 TO 50 FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ON THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER SOME PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FEW
VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH SUPPRESSES
THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKS SUCH THAT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WOULD RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL
CLOSE...THOUGH...AND FOR WHAT THEY ARE WORTH THE CANADIAN AND THE
DGEX ARE STILL FARTHER NORTH AND WET FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT
LEAST FOR THURSDAY. THE HIGHER QPF MODELS HAVE PARTIAL THICKNESSES
THAT WOULD BE LIQUID ON THURSDAY FOR THE AREA...WHILE THE DRIER
GUIDANCE IS COLDER. THE GFS HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED THE COLDER
WAY...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY ON THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE TRIAD.

COMPLICATING THINGS...THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A CORRESPONDINGLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A NOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SURFACE
LOW TRACK. LIKE THE CANADIAN AND THE DGEX...THICKNESSES ARE WARM FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR SETTLES IN. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION MAY...OVERALL...HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY LOWER...WITH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER IN EACH OF ITS LAST
FOUR RUNS...GFS ENSEMBLES ON THURSDAY STILL HAVE SOME MEMBERS WITH A
MORE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRECIPITATION. THE PRUDENT COURSE FOR
THURSDAY IS TO MAINTAIN SOME CHANCES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES WEST OF
ABOUT U.S. 1 AND CHANCES EAST...KEEPING PRECIPITATION LIQUID AND
CONFINED TO THURSDAY UNTIL OVERALL FEATURES RESOLVE THEMSELVES MORE
CLEARLY. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THICKNESSES AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED DEGREE OF ANY MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S. THERE HAVE BEEN
HUGE SWINGS IN MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...40S TO 50S AND BACK
AGAIN...AND 40S TO 50S TO 30S IN THE TRIAD ON PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF
THE ECMWF MOS. BY FRIDAY SOME CONFIDENCE THAT MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 30S MODERATING SOME FOR SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AND
MOSTLY IN THE 40S THEN...AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE 40M TO 50M
VERSUS VALUES OF AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21-00Z
WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AT 10 TO 15KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON.  AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES VIA STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-
06Z MON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DANGEROUS W/NW CROSSWINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS.  A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL
PERSIST MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
253 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEAK MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WHILE THE BLANKET OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEMPER INSOLATION A BIT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD AID
IN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES A GOOD 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 50S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE E-SEWD
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW...LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF INTENSE 180-200 H5
FALLS...WILL TRACK EWD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE ...MOVING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY MORNING. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY
LLJ...WILL SUPPORT A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS AS AN
EASTWARD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE EAST ACROSS  THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z IN THE WEST TO 15Z IN THE EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE... LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL DRY AIR RACING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~6.5 C/KM WITH
MUCAPE OF ONLY 100-150 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THUS VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER.   EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN AND STRONG WAA. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
...RISING INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SHIFT
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 15Z MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD MARK THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD/CATEGORICAL POPS...WITH
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT AND LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LAGGING A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD.

STRONG POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN
WEST TO EAST CLEARING AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER AND 25-30KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
OCCUR AT OR BEFORE SOLAR NOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NW TO UPPER
50S/NEAR 60 SE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 40S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD HELP FOR
A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT MOVING
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT 300MB JET MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A 500MB JET JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND IN VICINITY OF THE JETS ALOFT BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS PROVIDE FOR SOME MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLUMN DRYING TO FOLLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA IS IN AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH WITH K INDICES
NEGATIVE...AND THE MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT CURRENTLY GET BELOW ABOUT
-20C AND THE AIR MASS BELOW THAT IS QUITE DRY. A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY
BROKEN CLOUDS IS ONLY ANTICIPATED EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON INCREASING SUN. SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT 500MB
JET JUST TO OUR NORTH AND JUST MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
NORMAL...45 TO 50 FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED
ON THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER SOME PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FEW
VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH SUPPRESSES
THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKS SUCH THAT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WOULD RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL
CLOSE...THOUGH...AND FOR WHAT THEY ARE WORTH THE CANADIAN AND THE
DGEX ARE STILL FARTHER NORTH AND WET FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AT
LEAST FOR THURSDAY. THE HIGHER QPF MODELS HAVE PARTIAL THICKNESSES
THAT WOULD BE LIQUID ON THURSDAY FOR THE AREA...WHILE THE DRIER
GUIDANCE IS COLDER. THE GFS HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED THE COLDER
WAY...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY ON THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE TRIAD.

COMPLICATING THINGS...THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A CORRESPONDINGLY
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A NOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SURFACE
LOW TRACK. LIKE THE CANADIAN AND THE DGEX...THICKNESSES ARE WARM FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR SETTLES IN. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION MAY...OVERALL...HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY LOWER...WITH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER IN EACH OF ITS LAST
FOUR RUNS...GFS ENSEMBLES ON THURSDAY STILL HAVE SOME MEMBERS WITH A
MORE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRECIPITATION. THE PRUDENT COURSE FOR
THURSDAY IS TO MAINTAIN SOME CHANCES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES WEST OF
ABOUT U.S. 1 AND CHANCES EAST...KEEPING PRECIPITATION LIQUID AND
CONFINED TO THURSDAY UNTIL OVERALL FEATURES RESOLVE THEMSELVES MORE
CLEARLY. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THICKNESSES AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED DEGREE OF ANY MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S. THERE HAVE BEEN
HUGE SWINGS IN MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...40S TO 50S AND BACK
AGAIN...AND 40S TO 50S TO 30S IN THE TRIAD ON PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF
THE ECMWF MOS. BY FRIDAY SOME CONFIDENCE THAT MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 30S MODERATING SOME FOR SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AND
MOSTLY IN THE 40S THEN...AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE 40M TO 50M
VERSUS VALUES OF AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21-00Z
WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AT 10 TO 15KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON.  AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES VIA STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-
06Z MON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DANGEROUS W/NW CROSSWINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS.  A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL
PERSIST MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 010613
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
113 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD.
A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN CALM
THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS AROUND 12K THROUGH
18Z. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING...CEILINGS MAY DROP TO
NEAR MVFR LEVELS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT ALL LEVELS. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LIQUID PCPN AHEAD OF IT WILL HAVE REACHED THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS ISSUANCE PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ALLOWING SE-S
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF
IT...WILL RESULT WITH INCREASING SSW-SW WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 010613
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
113 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD.
A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN CALM
THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS AROUND 12K THROUGH
18Z. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING...CEILINGS MAY DROP TO
NEAR MVFR LEVELS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT ALL LEVELS. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LIQUID PCPN AHEAD OF IT WILL HAVE REACHED THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS ISSUANCE PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ALLOWING SE-S
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF
IT...WILL RESULT WITH INCREASING SSW-SW WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 010613
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
113 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD.
A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN CALM
THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS AROUND 12K THROUGH
18Z. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING...CEILINGS MAY DROP TO
NEAR MVFR LEVELS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT ALL LEVELS. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LIQUID PCPN AHEAD OF IT WILL HAVE REACHED THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS ISSUANCE PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ALLOWING SE-S
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF
IT...WILL RESULT WITH INCREASING SSW-SW WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 010613
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
113 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD.
A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN CALM
THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS AROUND 12K THROUGH
18Z. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING...CEILINGS MAY DROP TO
NEAR MVFR LEVELS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT ALL LEVELS. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LIQUID PCPN AHEAD OF IT WILL HAVE REACHED THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS ISSUANCE PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ALLOWING SE-S
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF
IT...WILL RESULT WITH INCREASING SSW-SW WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010546
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 25-32 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS THE CLOUDS APPROACH
AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS DELAYING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED JUST A LOWER OF
CEILINGS TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY 01Z OR SO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FEET...EXCEPT 6 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. THAT IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3
FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/CTC/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010546
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 25-32 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS THE CLOUDS APPROACH
AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS DELAYING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED JUST A LOWER OF
CEILINGS TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY 01Z OR SO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FEET...EXCEPT 6 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. THAT IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3
FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/CTC/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010546
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 25-32 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS THE CLOUDS APPROACH
AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS DELAYING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED JUST A LOWER OF
CEILINGS TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY 01Z OR SO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FEET...EXCEPT 6 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. THAT IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3
FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/CTC/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010546
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 25-32 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS THE CLOUDS APPROACH
AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS DELAYING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INDICATED JUST A LOWER OF
CEILINGS TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY 01Z OR SO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FEET...EXCEPT 6 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. THAT IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3
FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/CTC/TL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 010532
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21-00Z
WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AT 10 TO 15KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON.  AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES VIA STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-
06Z MON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DANGEROUS W/NW CROSSWINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS.  A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL
PERSIST MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010532
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21-00Z
WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING S/SW AT 10 TO 15KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON.  AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES VIA STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-
06Z MON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15 TO 18Z AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DANGEROUS W/NW CROSSWINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS.  A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL
PERSIST MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KMHX 010341
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. AS CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS EXCEPT FOR DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...SHOWING BTW 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEREFORE THE SCA OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON
NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS
TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010341
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. AS CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS EXCEPT FOR DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...SHOWING BTW 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEREFORE THE SCA OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON
NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS
TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010341
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. AS CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS EXCEPT FOR DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...SHOWING BTW 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEREFORE THE SCA OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON
NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS
TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010341
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. AS CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS EXCEPT FOR DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...SHOWING BTW 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEREFORE THE SCA OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON
NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS
TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010341
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. AS CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS EXCEPT FOR DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...SHOWING BTW 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEREFORE THE SCA OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON
NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS
TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010341
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MOSTLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. AS CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS EXCEPT FOR DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...SHOWING BTW 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEREFORE THE SCA OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON
NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH
SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS
TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 010305
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT 10-15 KT
BY 18Z SUN AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-21Z...ASSUMING INCREASING MID-LEVEL (10-
15 KFT) CEILINGS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER INSOLATION/MIXING. MVFR
CEILINGS (2000-3000 FT AGL) WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 21-00Z AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AND ~00Z AT RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 00-06Z MON AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-12Z MON...PERSISTING THROUGH 12-18Z MON AT
EASTERN TERMINALS. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH W/NW
WINDS BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT MID
TO LATE MON AFTERNOON (~21Z). A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL PERSIST
MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010305
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT 10-15 KT
BY 18Z SUN AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-21Z...ASSUMING INCREASING MID-LEVEL (10-
15 KFT) CEILINGS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER INSOLATION/MIXING. MVFR
CEILINGS (2000-3000 FT AGL) WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 21-00Z AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AND ~00Z AT RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 00-06Z MON AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-12Z MON...PERSISTING THROUGH 12-18Z MON AT
EASTERN TERMINALS. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH W/NW
WINDS BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT MID
TO LATE MON AFTERNOON (~21Z). A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL PERSIST
MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010305
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT 10-15 KT
BY 18Z SUN AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-21Z...ASSUMING INCREASING MID-LEVEL (10-
15 KFT) CEILINGS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER INSOLATION/MIXING. MVFR
CEILINGS (2000-3000 FT AGL) WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 21-00Z AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AND ~00Z AT RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 00-06Z MON AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-12Z MON...PERSISTING THROUGH 12-18Z MON AT
EASTERN TERMINALS. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH W/NW
WINDS BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT MID
TO LATE MON AFTERNOON (~21Z). A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL PERSIST
MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010305
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW AT 10-15 KT
BY 18Z SUN AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-21Z...ASSUMING INCREASING MID-LEVEL (10-
15 KFT) CEILINGS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER INSOLATION/MIXING. MVFR
CEILINGS (2000-3000 FT AGL) WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 21-00Z AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AND ~00Z AT RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 00-06Z MON AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-12Z MON...PERSISTING THROUGH 12-18Z MON AT
EASTERN TERMINALS. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH W/NW
WINDS BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT MID
TO LATE MON AFTERNOON (~21Z). A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL PERSIST
MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
BLS SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
BLS SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
BLS SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
BLS SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
BLS SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
BLS SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
BLS SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 957 PM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT RANGED INTO THE 40S IN THE SW... WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAD REACHED. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REACH INTO THE TRIAD BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT... THEN REACH EASTERN SECTIONS BEFORE 300 AM. THIS INCREASE
IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S). TEMPERATURES
IN THE NE ZONES (THE LAST TO SEE THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK)
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 100 AM TO 300 AM (MID TO UPPER 20S)... THE
RISE A BIT BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
BLS SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 010232
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
932 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR      AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 010232
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
932 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR      AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 010232
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
932 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR      AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 010232
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
932 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR      AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 010232
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
932 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR      AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 010232
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
932 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ACCORDING TO MESONET DATA YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.5
TO 1 MILE INLAND FOR THE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIVING INTO THE 30S. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERING THE IMPACT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HAVE. ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS 930 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT THE MODELS IS THE FIRST
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS QUITE AS COLD AS THE
GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I HAVE LOWERED
OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT
SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF W WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BESIDES THIS MINOR CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS...

ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND BOTH DEAL WITH
NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE
A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM
THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR      AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KMHX 010028
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES FOR INIT CONDS T/TD/WIND AS
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RAD COOLING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...WINDS GENERALLY W-NW 10-20 KT THIS EVE WITH SEAS 4-7
FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS AT 7 PM...THUS CONT SCA N
OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING THEN SEAS GRAD SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
ACRS THE OUTER WTRS. BY LATE TONIGHT EXPECT LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3
FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010028
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES FOR INIT CONDS T/TD/WIND AS
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RAD COOLING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...WINDS GENERALLY W-NW 10-20 KT THIS EVE WITH SEAS 4-7
FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS AT 7 PM...THUS CONT SCA N
OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING THEN SEAS GRAD SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
ACRS THE OUTER WTRS. BY LATE TONIGHT EXPECT LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3
FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010028
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES FOR INIT CONDS T/TD/WIND AS
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RAD COOLING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...WINDS GENERALLY W-NW 10-20 KT THIS EVE WITH SEAS 4-7
FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS AT 7 PM...THUS CONT SCA N
OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING THEN SEAS GRAD SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
ACRS THE OUTER WTRS. BY LATE TONIGHT EXPECT LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3
FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010028
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES FOR INIT CONDS T/TD/WIND AS
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RAD COOLING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...WINDS GENERALLY W-NW 10-20 KT THIS EVE WITH SEAS 4-7
FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS AT 7 PM...THUS CONT SCA N
OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING THEN SEAS GRAD SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
ACRS THE OUTER WTRS. BY LATE TONIGHT EXPECT LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3
FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010020
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES FOR INIT CONDS T/TD/WIND AS
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RAD COOLING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM...WINDS GENERALLY W-NW LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVE BUT SEAS
REMAIN 4-7 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS AT 7 PM...THUS
CONT SCA N OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING THEN SEAS GRAD SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT ACRS THE OUTER WTRS. BY LATE TONIGHT EXPECT LIGHT W
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT
COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS
MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010020
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES FOR INIT CONDS T/TD/WIND AS
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RAD COOLING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM...WINDS GENERALLY W-NW LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVE BUT SEAS
REMAIN 4-7 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS AT 7 PM...THUS
CONT SCA N OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING THEN SEAS GRAD SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT ACRS THE OUTER WTRS. BY LATE TONIGHT EXPECT LIGHT W
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT
COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS
MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010020
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES FOR INIT CONDS T/TD/WIND AS
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RAD COOLING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT THEN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM...WINDS GENERALLY W-NW LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVE BUT SEAS
REMAIN 4-7 FT ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS AT 7 PM...THUS
CONT SCA N OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING THEN SEAS GRAD SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT ACRS THE OUTER WTRS. BY LATE TONIGHT EXPECT LIGHT W
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW WINDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE ON NEXT
COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTN WITH SEAS
MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD
EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/TL






000
FXUS62 KILM 010018 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
713 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT
THE MODELS IS THE FIRST EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS
QUITE AS COLD AS THE GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. I HAVE LOWERED OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM
READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS
STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
AND BOTH DEAL WITH NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES.
ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT
SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 010018 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
713 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT
THE MODELS IS THE FIRST EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS
QUITE AS COLD AS THE GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. I HAVE LOWERED OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM
READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS
STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
AND BOTH DEAL WITH NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES.
ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT
SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 010018 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
713 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT
THE MODELS IS THE FIRST EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS
QUITE AS COLD AS THE GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. I HAVE LOWERED OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM
READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS
STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
AND BOTH DEAL WITH NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES.
ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT
SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 312344
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT
THE MODELS IS THE FIRST EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS
QUITE AS COLD AS THE GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. I HAVE LOWERED OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM
READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS
STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
AND BOTH DEAL WITH NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES.
ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT
SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KILM 312344
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING
OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...TYPICALLY ONE OF THE EASIEST TIMES TO BEAT
THE MODELS IS THE FIRST EVENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE REMNANT COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND I AM HESITANT TO EVEN FORECAST LOWS
QUITE AS COLD AS THE GFS MOS WHICH HAS MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. I HAVE LOWERED OUR FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ONLY 5-8 DEGREES COLDER THAN 630 PM
READINGS. THE REMNANT SEABREEZE CIRCULATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS
STILL BLOWING AT THE BEACHES BUT SHOULD DIE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE
HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS
OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR
SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE
ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S 6-8 KT AT KCRE/KMYR...A STRONG INVERSION WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS REFLECT
LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS OF 13K THROUGH 18Z. ACTUAL CEILINGS MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 09Z AND MAY BE HIGHER AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
FROM 16-18Z WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KT AS CEILINGS IMPROVE TO 20K
OR SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...ONLY TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
AND BOTH DEAL WITH NEARSHORE EFFECTS: THE REMNANT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO DIE AWAY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES.
ALSO...NEARSHORE SEAS WERE A LITTLE HIGH IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON 6:00 PM DATA FROM THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY OF 1 FOOT
SEAS IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS
SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING.
2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING
TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 312034
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING OFF
THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR
NE SC AND SE NC AS THE HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION
OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE
TO LEVEL OFF OR SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND
ON THE OTHER HAND WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
SUB-FREEZING READINGS LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN
MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8
KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE
RAIN WED.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED
MATEYS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS
DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS
BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND
PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING. 2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY
9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING
SWELL. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 312034
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING OFF
THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR
NE SC AND SE NC AS THE HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION
OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE
TO LEVEL OFF OR SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND
ON THE OTHER HAND WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
SUB-FREEZING READINGS LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN
MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8
KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE
RAIN WED.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED
MATEYS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS
DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS
BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND
PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING. 2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY
9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING
SWELL. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 312034
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING OFF
THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR
NE SC AND SE NC AS THE HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION
OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE
TO LEVEL OFF OR SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND
ON THE OTHER HAND WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
SUB-FREEZING READINGS LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN
MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8
KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE
RAIN WED.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED
MATEYS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS
DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS
BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND
PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING. 2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY
9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING
SWELL. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 312034
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING OFF
THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR
NE SC AND SE NC AS THE HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION
OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE
TO LEVEL OFF OR SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND
ON THE OTHER HAND WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
SUB-FREEZING READINGS LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN
MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT
PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE
DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER
THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME.
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE
STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD
SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A
SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA
LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE
PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE
HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW
INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H
FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5
DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE.

NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW
CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8
KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE
RAIN WED.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED
MATEYS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS
DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS
BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND
PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING. 2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY
9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING
SWELL. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF
THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND
SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR
AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY
PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF
MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY
BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A
STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT
GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10
KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND
WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KRAH 312033
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW THE
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SPREAD EAST.  MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE THICKER OVER THE
WEST.  THUS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BEFORE THE COOLING LEVELS OFF WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM IN THE EAST...SO
WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV/MET VALUES...WITH SOME MID 20S EAST
TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM SATURDAY...

DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY... PROVIDING COMPARATIVELY WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
HANDLING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY... AND THE TRAILING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ECMWF REMAINS SUPPRESSED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SECOND NORTHERN
STREAM ONE... AND PUSHES THE LOW EASTWARD OUT TO SEA WITH NO LOCAL
IMPACTS... WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA... RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. WITH NO STRONG CONSENSUS TO DRIVE A
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST... WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY... WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 312031
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW THE
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SPREAD EAST.  MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE THICKER OVER THE
WEST.  THUS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BEFORE THE COOLING LEVELS OFF WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM IN THE EAST...SO
WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV/MET VALUES...WITH SOME MID 20S EAST
TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 312031
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW THE
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SPREAD EAST.  MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE THICKER OVER THE
WEST.  THUS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BEFORE THE COOLING LEVELS OFF WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM IN THE EAST...SO
WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV/MET VALUES...WITH SOME MID 20S EAST
TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 312031
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW THE
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SPREAD EAST.  MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE THICKER OVER THE
WEST.  THUS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BEFORE THE COOLING LEVELS OFF WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM IN THE EAST...SO
WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV/MET VALUES...WITH SOME MID 20S EAST
TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 312031
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW THE
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SPREAD EAST.  MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE THICKER OVER THE
WEST.  THUS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BEFORE THE COOLING LEVELS OFF WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM IN THE EAST...SO
WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV/MET VALUES...WITH SOME MID 20S EAST
TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MODERATION AS THICKNESSES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 1320M
WHICH IS 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO OVERCOME SOME
OF THE LOSS OF HEATING...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MAYBE TOUCHING 60 IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.   PW VALUES
STAY BELOW 1.25"...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WOULD LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM/GFS QPF TOTALS WHICH
ARE HIGHER AND GIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN TOTAL.  WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...THOUGH
THE GFS PRODUCES 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS IT STEEPENS MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO  AROUND 6 C/KM.  THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS...BUT IF THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER IT SHOULD
BE IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG 150+ METER HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-35KT
IN THE DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL MIXED LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MODELS CAN OFTEN OVERDO THESE GRADIENT WINDS.  WILL CAP WIND GUSTS
AT 30KT FOR NOW.

TEMPS MAY COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WILL LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY REACH THE 60S BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 312000
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. MCLR SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS WITH SOME MID 20S
COOLER SPOTS. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LVL OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER
LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT
FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIF OVER SRN AND
INLAND AREAS AND THIS SHLD SPREAD TO OBX AND ADJACENT CSTL WTRS
THRU THE EVENING. WL CONT SCA N OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING AS
SEAS WILL ONLY GRAD SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OUTER WTRS. BY LATE TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN
ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER
SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL










000
FXUS62 KMHX 312000
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. MCLR SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS WITH SOME MID 20S
COOLER SPOTS. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LVL OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH LOW LVL
FLOW BECOMING SW OVER THE AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH SOME FILTERED SUN SHLD SEE TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LVLS WITH AROUND 50 FAR NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER COASTER
TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REMAINS GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH PA AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB SW
JET INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON- DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 60 PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE... AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND A HALF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
OVER LAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS AROUND 60 WILL BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS AROUND 20 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL
TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW TD
VALS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

31/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CONUS
AND MOVING INTO THE GOM...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PHASING IT WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM THEN WOULD MOVE NE UP THE SE COAST WITH THIS
PATTERN. CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE GFS ITSELF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DRY BUT COLD PATTERN THUR NIGHT AND
FRI...THOUGH ECENS MEAN INDICATES A WETTER SOLN THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUN SO ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC ECM.
DUE TO ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THUR/THUR NIGHT IN LINE WITH WPC POP FCST. TOO EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY WHAT P-TYPE WILL BE...THOUGH WILL BASE FCST ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND INDICATE RA IN GRIDS WITH SLGT CH SN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
PRESENT TO THE N AND W.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER
LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT
FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE S TO SW LATE SUN NIGHT IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY ON MONDAY WHILE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIF OVER SRN AND
INLAND AREAS AND THIS SHLD SPREAD TO OBX AND ADJACENT CSTL WTRS
THRU THE EVENING. WL CONT SCA N OF OCRACOKE THRU THE EVENING AS
SEAS WILL ONLY GRAD SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OUTER WTRS. BY LATE TONIGHT
EXPECT LIGHT W WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT N AND 1 TO 2 FT S. SW
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN
ADVANCE ON NEXT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHLD REACH 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE
AFTN WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS REACHING 4 FT OUTER
SRN/CNTRL WTRS TWRD EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 25-35 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 10-14 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SRN/CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY
MORNING. SW GALES LOOK PROBABLY FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS RESIDE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MAY HAVE GALES ACROSS ALL THE WATERS INCLUDING THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. USED A BLEND OF NWPS/WAVE WATCH IV/PREVIOUS FCST SUN
NIGHT THEN MAINLY WAVEWATCH IV MON EVENING AS THIS DOES BEST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFTING TO SW
BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
THUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL











000
FXUS62 KRAH 311935
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW THE
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SPREAD EAST.  MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE THICKER OVER THE
WEST.  THUS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BEFORE THE COOLING LEVELS OFF WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM IN THE EAST...SO
WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV/MET VALUES...WITH SOME MID 20S EAST
TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311935
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW THE
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SPREAD EAST.  MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE THICKER OVER THE
WEST.  THUS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BEFORE THE COOLING LEVELS OFF WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM IN THE EAST...SO
WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV/MET VALUES...WITH SOME MID 20S EAST
TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311935
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW THE
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SPREAD EAST.  MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE THICKER OVER THE
WEST.  THUS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BEFORE THE COOLING LEVELS OFF WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM IN THE EAST...SO
WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV/MET VALUES...WITH SOME MID 20S EAST
TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311935
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW THE
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SPREAD EAST.  MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE THICKER OVER THE
WEST.  THUS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BEFORE THE COOLING LEVELS OFF WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS.  GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM IN THE EAST...SO
WILL TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV/MET VALUES...WITH SOME MID 20S EAST
TO AROUND 30 IN THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.  STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO LESS THAN
0.15" ON MANY OF THE REGIONAL RAOBS.  MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPANDING
ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS
OVER CENTRAL NC. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN LINE WITH THE OBSERVED
MORNING 1000-850MB THICKNESS (1272M AT KGSO) AND SLIGHT RECOVERY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  MID 40S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST. -BLS

TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO
STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE
DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND
BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF
ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.  STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO LESS THAN
0.15" ON MANY OF THE REGIONAL RAOBS.  MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPANDING
ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS
OVER CENTRAL NC. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN LINE WITH THE OBSERVED
MORNING 1000-850MB THICKNESS (1272M AT KGSO) AND SLIGHT RECOVERY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  MID 40S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST. -BLS

TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO
STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE
DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND
BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF
ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OR WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
DAY...INCREASING TO 8-12KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TOWARD 20KT POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KGSO AND KINT.

OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY.  RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS...AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET SURGES ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1248 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY. TYPICAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX READINGS
OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS APPEARS
LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES OF
TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN
WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN
WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO
TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER
6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8
KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE
RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM SATURDAY...SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 4.5 FT
ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS
AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS
DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 311722
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1222 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A
COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK
IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY.
TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX
READINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS
APPEARS LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES
OF TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN
WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO
TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER
6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8
KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE
RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...APPEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS...NOT SUSTAINED...ARE MELLOWING
WITHIN A 17 KT-21 KT RANGE. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 5
FEET ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS
AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS
DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL









000
FXUS62 KILM 311722
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1222 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A
COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK
IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY.
TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX
READINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS
APPEARS LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES
OF TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN
WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO
TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER
6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8
KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE
RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...APPEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS...NOT SUSTAINED...ARE MELLOWING
WITHIN A 17 KT-21 KT RANGE. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 5
FEET ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS
AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS
DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL










000
FXUS62 KMHX 311720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1220 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST TODAY. GUSTY MORNING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER
LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT
FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...ADJUSTED END TIME OF SCA...HAVE IT ENDING
A BIT SOONER S OF OCRACOKE AND EXTENDED IT THRU THE EVENING N OF
OCRACOKE. NW WINDS STILL STRONG CNTRL AND NRN WTRS BUT SHLD
DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS E. SEAS RUNNING 7 TO 9
FEET WELL OFF OBX AND WILL PROB TAKE TIL LATE EVENING BEFORE DROP
BELOW 6 FT. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE WRLY
LATE. SEAS SHLD AVG 1 TO 2 FT S AND 2 TO 4 FT CNTRL AND N BY LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 311720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1220 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST TODAY. GUSTY MORNING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRAD
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER
LOWER LVLS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW DEWPTS TONIGHT SHLD LIMIT THREAT
FOR ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...ADJUSTED END TIME OF SCA...HAVE IT ENDING
A BIT SOONER S OF OCRACOKE AND EXTENDED IT THRU THE EVENING N OF
OCRACOKE. NW WINDS STILL STRONG CNTRL AND NRN WTRS BUT SHLD
DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS E. SEAS RUNNING 7 TO 9
FEET WELL OFF OBX AND WILL PROB TAKE TIL LATE EVENING BEFORE DROP
BELOW 6 FT. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE WRLY
LATE. SEAS SHLD AVG 1 TO 2 FT S AND 2 TO 4 FT CNTRL AND N BY LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG






000
FXUS62 KRAH 311531
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.  STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO LESS THAN
0.15" ON MANY OF THE REGIONAL RAOBS.  MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPANDING
ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS
OVER CENTRAL NC. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN LINE WITH THE OBSERVED
MORNING 1000-850MB THICKNESS (1272M AT KGSO) AND SLIGHT RECOVERY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  MID 40S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST. -BLS

TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO
STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE
DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND
BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF
ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES STILL SHOWED A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE A COUPLE OF KNOTS
LIGHTER...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TAFS REFLECT GUSTS IN THE TEENS
KNOTS THAT ARE ON THE HIGHER END OF WHAT MAY OCCUR WITH MIXING THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO
SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311531
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.  STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO LESS THAN
0.15" ON MANY OF THE REGIONAL RAOBS.  MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPANDING
ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS
OVER CENTRAL NC. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN LINE WITH THE OBSERVED
MORNING 1000-850MB THICKNESS (1272M AT KGSO) AND SLIGHT RECOVERY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  MID 40S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST. -BLS

TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO
STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT 25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE
DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND
BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF
ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES STILL SHOWED A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE A COUPLE OF KNOTS
LIGHTER...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TAFS REFLECT GUSTS IN THE TEENS
KNOTS THAT ARE ON THE HIGHER END OF WHAT MAY OCCUR WITH MIXING THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO
SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KILM 311458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A
COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK
IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY.
TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX
READINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS
APPEARS LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES
OF TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN
WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO
TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER
6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...APPEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS...NOT SUSTAINED...ARE MELLOWING
WITHIN A 17 KT-21 KT RANGE. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 5
FEET ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS
AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS
DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 311458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A
COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK
IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY.
TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX
READINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS
APPEARS LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES
OF TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN
WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO
TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER
6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...APPEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS...NOT SUSTAINED...ARE MELLOWING
WITHIN A 17 KT-21 KT RANGE. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 5
FEET ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS
AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS
DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 311458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A
COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK
IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY.
TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX
READINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS
APPEARS LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES
OF TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN
WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO
TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER
6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...APPEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS...NOT SUSTAINED...ARE MELLOWING
WITHIN A 17 KT-21 KT RANGE. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 5
FEET ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS
AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS
DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 311458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A
COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK
IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY.
TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX
READINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS
APPEARS LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES
OF TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN
WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO
TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER
6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...APPEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS...NOT SUSTAINED...ARE MELLOWING
WITHIN A 17 KT-21 KT RANGE. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 5
FEET ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS
AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS
DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 311430
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST TODAY. GUSTY MORNING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD 25 KT GUST WORDING
TO SOUNDS AND SRN WTRS THRU MORN PER OBS..OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THRU AFTN.

PREV DISC...BASED ON LATEST BATCH OF MARINE OBSERVATIONS...HAVE
OPTED TO DROP GALE WARNINGS AND GO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL GET A FEW GUSTS
INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 7-10 FOOT RANGE UP NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH
BUT PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN MODEL...WILL SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
THIS EVENING...AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...RF/CTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 311430
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREV DISC...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST TODAY. GUSTY MORNING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD 25 KT GUST WORDING
TO SOUNDS AND SRN WTRS THRU MORN PER OBS..OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THRU AFTN.

PREV DISC...BASED ON LATEST BATCH OF MARINE OBSERVATIONS...HAVE
OPTED TO DROP GALE WARNINGS AND GO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL GET A FEW GUSTS
INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 7-10 FOOT RANGE UP NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH
BUT PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN MODEL...WILL SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
THIS EVENING...AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...RF/CTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 311207
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. GUSTY
MORNING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST BATCH OF MARINE
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO DROP GALE WARNINGS AND GO WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
STILL GET A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
AS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 7-10 FOOT RANGE UP
NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH BUT PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN MODEL...WILL
SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KMHX 311207
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. GUSTY
MORNING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST BATCH OF MARINE
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO DROP GALE WARNINGS AND GO WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
STILL GET A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
AS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 7-10 FOOT RANGE UP
NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH BUT PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN MODEL...WILL
SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KMHX 311207
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. GUSTY
MORNING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST BATCH OF MARINE
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO DROP GALE WARNINGS AND GO WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
STILL GET A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
AS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 7-10 FOOT RANGE UP
NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH BUT PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN MODEL...WILL
SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KMHX 311207
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY. GUSTY
MORNING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST BATCH OF MARINE
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO DROP GALE WARNINGS AND GO WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
STILL GET A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
AS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 7-10 FOOT RANGE UP
NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH BUT PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN MODEL...WILL
SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KRAH 311132
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
631 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

ASIDE FROM SOME JET-STREAK CIRRUS OVER PART OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES...CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE JET ALOFT IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN
MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 12000FT TO 15000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CLOUD BASES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE AIR MASS
BELOW 700MB REMAINS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL WHICH TENDS TO DO PRETTY WELL WITH THE ONSET AND
COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI AND EAST TAKING LONGER TO GET AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE.

GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME STIRRING OF THE WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ANTICIPATE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. UNDER GOOD
SUNSHINE...1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...HIGHEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESSES WILL BE GREATER AND WINDS BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SOONER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT
25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO
THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES STILL SHOWED A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE A COUPLE OF KNOTS
LIGHTER...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TAFS REFLECT GUSTS IN THE TEENS
KNOTS THAT ARE ON THE HIGHER END OF WHAT MAY OCCUR WITH MIXING THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO
SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311132
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
631 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

ASIDE FROM SOME JET-STREAK CIRRUS OVER PART OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES...CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE JET ALOFT IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN
MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 12000FT TO 15000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CLOUD BASES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE AIR MASS
BELOW 700MB REMAINS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL WHICH TENDS TO DO PRETTY WELL WITH THE ONSET AND
COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI AND EAST TAKING LONGER TO GET AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE.

GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME STIRRING OF THE WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ANTICIPATE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. UNDER GOOD
SUNSHINE...1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...HIGHEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESSES WILL BE GREATER AND WINDS BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SOONER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT
25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO
THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES STILL SHOWED A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AROUND DAYBREAK...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE A COUPLE OF KNOTS
LIGHTER...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TAFS REFLECT GUSTS IN THE TEENS
KNOTS THAT ARE ON THE HIGHER END OF WHAT MAY OCCUR WITH MIXING THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO
SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KILM 311123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS
A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. LATEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. DO EXPECT
WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DURING MIDDAY AS THE INLAND
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 311123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS
A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. LATEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. DO EXPECT
WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DURING MIDDAY AS THE INLAND
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 311123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS
A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. LATEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. DO EXPECT
WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DURING MIDDAY AS THE INLAND
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 311123
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS
A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. LATEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. DO EXPECT
WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DURING MIDDAY AS THE INLAND
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 311037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
537 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS
A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
ACTIVE AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE
N BY SUNRISE SAT...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT BY
SUNRISE. N TO NNE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST.

THE ATM REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIKELY 10
DEGREES OR MORE...THUS NEGATING ANY FOG FORMATION. ATM COLUMN TO
FURTHER DRY OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNITE THRU SAT...WITH PWS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.15 INCHES. THUS...OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES...NO CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. LATEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. DO EXPECT
WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DURING MIDDAY AS THE INLAND
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 311037
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
537 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS
A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
ACTIVE AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE
N BY SUNRISE SAT...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT BY
SUNRISE. N TO NNE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST.

THE ATM REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIKELY 10
DEGREES OR MORE...THUS NEGATING ANY FOG FORMATION. ATM COLUMN TO
FURTHER DRY OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNITE THRU SAT...WITH PWS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.15 INCHES. THUS...OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES...NO CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. LATEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN IN
THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. DO EXPECT
WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DURING MIDDAY AS THE INLAND
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR






000
FXUS62 KMHX 310855
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EAST TODAY. GUSTY MORNING WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE AXIS
OF THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT. AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS SHOULD
START TO SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...HAVE REPLACED THE GALE WARNING WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30S...WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 7 AM. WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO GO WITH SCA EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME AS THE SECONDARY SURGE
WANES AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7-9
FEET NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING RAPIDLY AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR AMZ131-136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 310855
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EAST TODAY. GUSTY MORNING WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE AXIS
OF THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT. AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS SHOULD
START TO SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...HAVE REPLACED THE GALE WARNING WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30S...WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 7 AM. WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO GO WITH SCA EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME AS THE SECONDARY SURGE
WANES AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7-9
FEET NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING RAPIDLY AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR AMZ131-136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 310855
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EAST TODAY. GUSTY MORNING WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE AXIS
OF THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT. AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS SHOULD
START TO SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...HAVE REPLACED THE GALE WARNING WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30S...WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 7 AM. WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO GO WITH SCA EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME AS THE SECONDARY SURGE
WANES AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7-9
FEET NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING RAPIDLY AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR AMZ131-136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 310855
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EAST TODAY. GUSTY MORNING WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE AXIS
OF THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AT AROUND 700 MB SO EXPECT SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE. WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR PERHAPS RISING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND BECOMES
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC...WITH PWATS BUILDING ABOVE 1 INCH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUD BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
VA/MD/DE MONDAY MORNING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS.
RAIN CHANCE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. 03Z SREF
PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AROUND
21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z TUESDAY. REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A FAIRLY DRY SNOW GROWTH REGION THAT
DOES NOT WARRANT FROZEN P-TYPE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON
IN POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A DRY COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST THEN WASHOUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME GFS ENSEMBLES
AND A CLUSTER OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST. THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A DRY
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN NC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS DAY 6/7 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT. AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS SHOULD
START TO SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OFF THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...HAVE REPLACED THE GALE WARNING WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30S...WILL EXTEND THE GALE WARNING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 7 AM. WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO GO WITH SCA EVERYWHERE AT THAT TIME AS THE SECONDARY SURGE
WANES AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 7-9
FEET NORTH AND 4-6 FEET SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING RAPIDLY AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT...ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT BOATING DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS
SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. NW WINDS 25-30 KT
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z
WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR AMZ131-136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KILM 310804
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS
NEAR TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS A
SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
ACTIVE AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE
N BY SUNRISE SAT...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT BY
SUNRISE. N TO NNE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST.

THE ATM REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIKELY 10
DEGREES OR MORE...THUS NEGATING ANY FOG FORMATION. ATM COLUMN TO
FURTHER DRY OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNITE THRU SAT...WITH PWS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.15 INCHES. THUS...OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES...NO CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 310804
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS
NEAR TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS A
SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
ACTIVE AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE
N BY SUNRISE SAT...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT BY
SUNRISE. N TO NNE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST.

THE ATM REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIKELY 10
DEGREES OR MORE...THUS NEGATING ANY FOG FORMATION. ATM COLUMN TO
FURTHER DRY OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNITE THRU SAT...WITH PWS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.15 INCHES. THUS...OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES...NO CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 310804
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS
NEAR TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS A
SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
ACTIVE AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE
N BY SUNRISE SAT...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT BY
SUNRISE. N TO NNE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST.

THE ATM REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIKELY 10
DEGREES OR MORE...THUS NEGATING ANY FOG FORMATION. ATM COLUMN TO
FURTHER DRY OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNITE THRU SAT...WITH PWS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.15 INCHES. THUS...OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES...NO CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 310804
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS
NEAR TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP
FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR
HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND
INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS A
SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO
THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
ACTIVE AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE
N BY SUNRISE SAT...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT BY
SUNRISE. N TO NNE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST.

THE ATM REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIKELY 10
DEGREES OR MORE...THUS NEGATING ANY FOG FORMATION. ATM COLUMN TO
FURTHER DRY OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNITE THRU SAT...WITH PWS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.15 INCHES. THUS...OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES...NO CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND
MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM
OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC
PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE
SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT
TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3
FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE
FEAR.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR







000
FXUS62 KRAH 310802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

ASIDE FROM SOME JET-STREAK CIRRUS OVER PART OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES...CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE JET ALOFT IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN
MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 12000FT TO 15000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CLOUD BASES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE AIR MASS
BELOW 700MB REMAINS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL WHICH TENDS TO DO PRETTY WELL WITH THE ONSET AND
COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI AND EAST TAKING LONGER TO GET AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE.

GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME STIRRING OF THE WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ANTICIPATE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. UNDER GOOD
SUNSHINE...1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...HIGHEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESSES WILL BE GREATER AND WINDS BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SOONER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT
25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO
THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF
RAIN ARE LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT
BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

ASIDE FROM SOME JET-STREAK CIRRUS OVER PART OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES...CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE JET ALOFT IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN
MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 12000FT TO 15000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CLOUD BASES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE AIR MASS
BELOW 700MB REMAINS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL WHICH TENDS TO DO PRETTY WELL WITH THE ONSET AND
COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI AND EAST TAKING LONGER TO GET AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE.

GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME STIRRING OF THE WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ANTICIPATE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. UNDER GOOD
SUNSHINE...1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...HIGHEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESSES WILL BE GREATER AND WINDS BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SOONER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT
25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO
THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF
RAIN ARE LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT
BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

ASIDE FROM SOME JET-STREAK CIRRUS OVER PART OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES...CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE JET ALOFT IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN
MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 12000FT TO 15000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CLOUD BASES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE AIR MASS
BELOW 700MB REMAINS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL WHICH TENDS TO DO PRETTY WELL WITH THE ONSET AND
COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI AND EAST TAKING LONGER TO GET AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE.

GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME STIRRING OF THE WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ANTICIPATE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. UNDER GOOD
SUNSHINE...1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...HIGHEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESSES WILL BE GREATER AND WINDS BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SOONER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT
25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO
THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF
RAIN ARE LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT
BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

ASIDE FROM SOME JET-STREAK CIRRUS OVER PART OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES...CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE JET ALOFT IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN
MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 12000FT TO 15000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CLOUD BASES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE AIR MASS
BELOW 700MB REMAINS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL WHICH TENDS TO DO PRETTY WELL WITH THE ONSET AND
COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI AND EAST TAKING LONGER TO GET AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE.

GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME STIRRING OF THE WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ANTICIPATE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. UNDER GOOD
SUNSHINE...1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...HIGHEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESSES WILL BE GREATER AND WINDS BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SOONER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT
25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO
THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY: MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WEAK DPVA WILL RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER GRADUAL MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY DRY ~10KFT SUB-
CLOUD LAYER LEFT(REMAINS OF THE MODERATING CP AIRMASS)WILL KEEP IT
DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FEED
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW....MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED 180-200 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. STRONG DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE...LIMITED BY THE
INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL SLOT RACING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE NO PLANS
TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-6.8 C/KM)WITH LESS THAN <200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OCCURRING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WAA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WILL BE STRONG POST-
FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH BREEZY/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING 38-40KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER(SIMILAR TO IF NOT STRONGER THAN THE GUSTS WE HAD
YESTERDAY). LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
YET ANOTHER CP AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MORNING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IF PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AOA 1270M VERIFY AND WE DECOUPLE AS MODELS SUGGEST...EXPECT LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PASS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AS A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ONLY ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER EXPECTED
BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE...IN THE FAST AND SLOWLY
BACKING FLOW ALOFT BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE GULF COAST AND LIMITING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MEX MOS
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS PERIOD.

GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY OBVIOUS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OR SO WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SUPPRESSES THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW FORECAST BY BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP OVER OLD MEXICO...KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...IS NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH SUCH THAT THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. THE
GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD BE LIQUID AS GFS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES ARE WELL INTO THE RAIN REGIME AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY...THE PRUDENT COURSE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...A CHANCE OF RAIN
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES LOWEST AND BASICALLY NEAR SLIGHT IN THE TRIAD TO HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB TO KRWI. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES EXACTLY THERE WOULD BE CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE LINGERING MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A DRY ECMWF WITH NEAR
SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A DRY PREVIOUS
FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A DRY CURRENT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH TURNING CHILLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAN
ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES COOL AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND...DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN OTHER DETAILS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...AND HPC AND MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF
RAIN ARE LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT
BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310614
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

ASIDE FROM SOME JET-STREAK CIRRUS OVER PART OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES...CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE JET ALOFT IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN
MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 12000FT TO 15000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CLOUD BASES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE AIR MASS
BELOW 700MB REMAINS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL WHICH TENDS TO DO PRETTY WELL WITH THE ONSET AND
COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI AND EAST TAKING LONGER TO GET AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE.

GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME STIRRING OF THE WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ANTICIPATE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. UNDER GOOD
SUNSHINE...1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...HIGHEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESSES WILL BE GREATER AND WINDS BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SOONER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT
25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO
THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF
RAIN ARE LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT
BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310614
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

ASIDE FROM SOME JET-STREAK CIRRUS OVER PART OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES...CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE JET ALOFT IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN
MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 12000FT TO 15000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT
BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CLOUD BASES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE AIR MASS
BELOW 700MB REMAINS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD
COVER MODEL WHICH TENDS TO DO PRETTY WELL WITH THE ONSET AND
COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS FROM KFAY TO
KRWI AND EAST TAKING LONGER TO GET AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE.

GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME STIRRING OF THE WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ANTICIPATE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE TEENS KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. UNDER GOOD
SUNSHINE...1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...HIGHEST
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESSES WILL BE GREATER AND WINDS BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SOONER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SOMEWHAT QUICKLY
THIS EVENING THEN TEND TO STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT
25 TO 30 NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND BY THE TIME DEW POINTS WOULD FALL TO
THOSE LEVELS THE FREQUENCY OF ANY MODEST GUSTS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A FEW JET-STREAK CIRRUS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT MORE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO APPEAR IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...FROM AROUND 03Z AND LATER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
KNOTS WITH INITIAL MIXING THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF ANY
GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF
RAIN ARE LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST AOA 50KT
BY 2500FT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KILM 310555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...CLEAR AND COLD THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NO FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS
EVENING...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CLEAR SKIES NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S SO FAR BUT WITH CONTINUED MIXING WE WILL SEE
A MORE GRADUAL DECLINE THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. FORECAST GOOD TO
GO...NO CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT CLEAR...COLD AND DRY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY GOOD
DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER
MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR OUR
COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS MORE TO
TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING
SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP
MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE
CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE
AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
CWA...SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN
UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP
TO CATEGORICAL.

STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM
WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING
AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER ON TUE.

THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW
JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI...
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN
BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
ACTIVE AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE
N BY SUNRISE SAT...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT BY
SUNRISE. N TO NNE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST.

THE ATM REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIKELY 10
DEGREES OR MORE...THUS NEGATING ANY FOG FORMATION. ATM COLUMN TO
FURTHER DRY OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNITE THRU SAT...WITH PWS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.15 INCHES. THUS...OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES...NO CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUED NW WINDS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS MOST LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NO CHANGES WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS
TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE
GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND SPEED TREND INTO
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO
30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE...
BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15
KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...BJR
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KILM 310555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...CLEAR AND COLD THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NO FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS
EVENING...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CLEAR SKIES NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S SO FAR BUT WITH CONTINUED MIXING WE WILL SEE
A MORE GRADUAL DECLINE THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. FORECAST GOOD TO
GO...NO CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT CLEAR...COLD AND DRY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY GOOD
DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER
MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR OUR
COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS MORE TO
TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING
SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP
MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE
CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE
AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
CWA...SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN
UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP
TO CATEGORICAL.

STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM
WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING
AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER ON TUE.

THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW
JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI...
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN
BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
ACTIVE AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE
N BY SUNRISE SAT...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT BY
SUNRISE. N TO NNE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST.

THE ATM REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LIKELY 10
DEGREES OR MORE...THUS NEGATING ANY FOG FORMATION. ATM COLUMN TO
FURTHER DRY OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNITE THRU SAT...WITH PWS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.15 INCHES. THUS...OTHER THAN THIN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES...NO CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUED NW WINDS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS MOST LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NO CHANGES WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS
TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE
GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND SPEED TREND INTO
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO
30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE...
BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15
KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...BJR
AVIATION...DCH





000
FXUS62 KMHX 310546
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO AND BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SECONDARY CAA
SURGE NOW WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST. WINDS HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND PREVIOUS UPDATE RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHICH LOOKS GOOD. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWRD THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND OVER THE AREA. ATMS IS VERY DRY AND
EXPECT CLR SKIES THRU MID DAY AND THEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTN AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MSUNNY SKIES
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 45 TO 50 DGR RANGE MOST AREAS...WITH
AROUND 40 FOR NE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER
COASTER TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REPRESENT A
NON- DIURNAL TREND AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND WEST- SOUTHWEST WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING MODERATE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. LOWS IN THE
20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE A LEVELING OFF AND BEGINNING A
WARMING TREND PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASING THICKNESSES YIELDING MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS HAS IMPROVED FURTHER FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN VA/MD/DE
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS 850MB SW JET
INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
RISING TO THE MID/UPPER 50S PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S REALIZED EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
NE POTIONS OF THE FA EARLY MON EVENING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY
ENDS THOUGH NO IMPACTS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

30/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES AREA OVER THE GOM WED AND MOVE IT
NORTHEAST UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED INTO THUR. HOWEVER A GLANCE AT
THE GFSENS MEAN INDICATES VERY LARGE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO MSLP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN. ECMWF
HAS NO GULF LOW AND A DEEPER ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THUR
WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NC COAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE MID WEEK. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS LURKING JUST TO THE
WEST AND NORTH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL WINTRY
WEATHER...THOUGH NO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS LONG RANGE AND ONLY
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IT TO MOM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT. AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS SHOULD
START TO SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W AND THEN NW
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SAT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...SECONDARY CAA SURGE WORKING ITS WAY DOWN
THE COAST CURRENTLY WITH GUSTS TO 26 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET...34
KNOTS AT HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION AND 35 KNOTS AT DIAMOND
BUOY. SEAS ARE AS HIGH AS 10 FEET AT THE BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF
OREGON INLET. WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING MOST OF AREA WITH SCA
ALB SOUND AND RIVERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH
THE WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WEST LATE SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS INC TO SCA LEVELS...POSSIBLY GALES IN THE
OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS MON AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING TO
NW BY MON EVENING. GALES LOOK PROBABLY MON EVENING FOR ALL THE
WATERS AND POTENTIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDS AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TO THE NORTH PULLS DOWN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY ESP NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT
IN LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS FOR WRN PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT
RIVERS AND ABOVE NORMAL WATER ON SOUND SIDE OF OBX. AT THIS TIME
APPEARS WATER LEVEL CHANGES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET
AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ131-136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-150-
     152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 310546
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO AND BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SECONDARY CAA
SURGE NOW WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST. WINDS HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND PREVIOUS UPDATE RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHICH LOOKS GOOD. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWRD THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND OVER THE AREA. ATMS IS VERY DRY AND
EXPECT CLR SKIES THRU MID DAY AND THEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTN AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MSUNNY SKIES
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 45 TO 50 DGR RANGE MOST AREAS...WITH
AROUND 40 FOR NE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER
COASTER TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REPRESENT A
NON- DIURNAL TREND AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND WEST- SOUTHWEST WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING MODERATE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. LOWS IN THE
20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE A LEVELING OFF AND BEGINNING A
WARMING TREND PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASING THICKNESSES YIELDING MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS HAS IMPROVED FURTHER FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN VA/MD/DE
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS 850MB SW JET
INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
RISING TO THE MID/UPPER 50S PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S REALIZED EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
NE POTIONS OF THE FA EARLY MON EVENING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY
ENDS THOUGH NO IMPACTS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

30/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES AREA OVER THE GOM WED AND MOVE IT
NORTHEAST UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED INTO THUR. HOWEVER A GLANCE AT
THE GFSENS MEAN INDICATES VERY LARGE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO MSLP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN. ECMWF
HAS NO GULF LOW AND A DEEPER ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THUR
WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NC COAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE MID WEEK. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS LURKING JUST TO THE
WEST AND NORTH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL WINTRY
WEATHER...THOUGH NO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS LONG RANGE AND ONLY
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IT TO MOM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT. AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS SHOULD
START TO SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W AND THEN NW
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SAT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...SECONDARY CAA SURGE WORKING ITS WAY DOWN
THE COAST CURRENTLY WITH GUSTS TO 26 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET...34
KNOTS AT HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION AND 35 KNOTS AT DIAMOND
BUOY. SEAS ARE AS HIGH AS 10 FEET AT THE BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF
OREGON INLET. WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING MOST OF AREA WITH SCA
ALB SOUND AND RIVERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH
THE WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WEST LATE SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS INC TO SCA LEVELS...POSSIBLY GALES IN THE
OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS MON AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING TO
NW BY MON EVENING. GALES LOOK PROBABLY MON EVENING FOR ALL THE
WATERS AND POTENTIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDS AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TO THE NORTH PULLS DOWN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY ESP NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT
IN LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS FOR WRN PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT
RIVERS AND ABOVE NORMAL WATER ON SOUND SIDE OF OBX. AT THIS TIME
APPEARS WATER LEVEL CHANGES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET
AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ131-136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-150-
     152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KRAH 310326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1023 PM FRIDAY...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A POTENTIAL WEATHER
HAZARD...

A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. IT CONTINUED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION WITH A RAPIDLY
SLACKING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NC. THE STRONG NW WINDS OF EARLIER
TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS... WITH
ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH LINGERING AT 1000 PM. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIE OFF TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 MPH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY SUB FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT. FROST POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS
LEAVES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR STRONG COOLING OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE CLEAR
SKIES AND DEVELOPING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.  12Z THICKNESSES DOWN NEAR 1280M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE
SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.  WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST. -BLS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THANKS TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT MIXING COUPLED WITH THE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VIA DEPARTURE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND... BECOMING MORE VARIABLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BSD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1023 PM FRIDAY...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A POTENTIAL WEATHER
HAZARD...

A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. IT CONTINUED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION WITH A RAPIDLY
SLACKING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NC. THE STRONG NW WINDS OF EARLIER
TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS... WITH
ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH LINGERING AT 1000 PM. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIE OFF TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 MPH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY SUB FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT. FROST POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS
LEAVES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR STRONG COOLING OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE CLEAR
SKIES AND DEVELOPING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.  12Z THICKNESSES DOWN NEAR 1280M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE
SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.  WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST. -BLS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THANKS TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT MIXING COUPLED WITH THE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VIA DEPARTURE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND... BECOMING MORE VARIABLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BSD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1023 PM FRIDAY...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A POTENTIAL WEATHER
HAZARD...

A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. IT CONTINUED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION WITH A RAPIDLY
SLACKING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NC. THE STRONG NW WINDS OF EARLIER
TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS... WITH
ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH LINGERING AT 1000 PM. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIE OFF TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 MPH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY SUB FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT. FROST POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS
LEAVES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR STRONG COOLING OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE CLEAR
SKIES AND DEVELOPING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.  12Z THICKNESSES DOWN NEAR 1280M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE
SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.  WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST. -BLS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THANKS TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT MIXING COUPLED WITH THE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VIA DEPARTURE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND... BECOMING MORE VARIABLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BSD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1023 PM FRIDAY...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A POTENTIAL WEATHER
HAZARD...

A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. IT CONTINUED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION WITH A RAPIDLY
SLACKING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NC. THE STRONG NW WINDS OF EARLIER
TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS... WITH
ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH LINGERING AT 1000 PM. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIE OFF TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 MPH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY SUB FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT. FROST POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS
LEAVES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR STRONG COOLING OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE CLEAR
SKIES AND DEVELOPING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.  12Z THICKNESSES DOWN NEAR 1280M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE
SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.  WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST. -BLS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THANKS TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT MIXING COUPLED WITH THE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VIA DEPARTURE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND... BECOMING MORE VARIABLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BSD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310254
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...A SHARP TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
WITH STRONG CAA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE EXITING TROUGH AND APPROACHING HIGH...THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS
MAKING CONDITIONS BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE WATER. THIS MIXING WILL INHIBIT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO THEIR
POTENTIAL AS DEW POINT VALUES ARE IN THE TEENS. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
BUMPED UP LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...AROUND MID 20S INLAND TO
AROUND 30 ALONG THE BEACHES. NW WIND BETWEEN 5-10KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWRD THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND OVER THE AREA. ATMS IS VERY DRY AND
EXPECT CLR SKIES THRU MID DAY AND THEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTN AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MSUNNY SKIES
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 45 TO 50 DGR RANGE MOST AREAS...WITH
AROUND 40 FOR NE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER
COASTER TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REPRESENT A
NON- DIURNAL TREND AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND WEST- SOUTHWEST WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING MODERATE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. LOWS IN THE
20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE A LEVELING OFF AND BEGINNING A
WARMING TREND PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASING THICKNESSES YIELDING MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS HAS IMPROVED FURTHER FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN VA/MD/DE
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS 850MB SW JET
INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
RISING TO THE MID/UPPER 50S PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S REALIZED EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
NE POTIONS OF THE FA EARLY MON EVENING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY
ENDS THOUGH NO IMPACTS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

30/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES AREA OVER THE GOM WED AND MOVE IT
NORTHEAST UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED INTO THUR. HOWEVER A GLANCE AT
THE GFSENS MEAN INDICATES VERY LARGE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO MSLP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN. ECMWF
HAS NO GULF LOW AND A DEEPER ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THUR
WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NC COAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE MID WEEK. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS LURKING JUST TO THE
WEST AND NORTH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL WINTRY
WEATHER...THOUGH NO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS LONG RANGE AND ONLY
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IT TO MOM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SKC FOR TAF SITES
THROUGH PERIOD. CAA SCU WILL AFFECT NE PORTIONS OF AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE REST OF PERIOD WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM NW. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY BACK TO W SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W AND THEN NW
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SAT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...AS PREDICTED THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN NW
WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OBX. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA AS SEEN WELL UPSTREAM OF THE REGION.
BASED ON OBS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA WE ANTICIPATE GUSTS OF
30-40KTS AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS NOT AS STRONG. THUS WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING MOST OF
AREA WITH SCA ALB SOUND AND RIVERS. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED DOWN A BIT BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...BUT HOLDING OFF WATCHING THE TREND OF THE CURRENT SURGE. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GALES ARE LOOKING MARGINAL FOR SRN TIER AND
POSS PAMLICO SOUND. BLENDED WAVEWATCH AND SWAN FOR SEAS AS SWAN
TENDS TO BE TOO HIGH WITH NW WIND EVENTS...STILL SHLD SEE 8 TO 10
FEET FAR OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THE HIGH WILL BUILD TWRD THE
COAST SATURDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS DURING
THE AFTN. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 6 FT
FAR OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS THRU THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH
THE WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WEST LATE SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS INC TO SCA LEVELS...POSSIBLY GALES IN THE
OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS MON AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING TO
NW BY MON EVENING. GALES LOOK PROBABLY MON EVENING FOR ALL THE
WATERS AND POTENTIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDS AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TO THE NORTH PULLS DOWN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY ESP NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT
IN LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS FOR WRN PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT
RIVERS AND ABOVE NORMAL WATER ON SOUND SIDE OF OBX. AT THIS TIME
APPEARS WATER LEVEL CHANGES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET
AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL/LEP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF






000
FXUS62 KILM 310241
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
941 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...CLEAR AND COLD THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NO FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS
EVENING...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CLEAR SKIES NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S SO FAR BUT WITH CONTINUED MIXING WE WILL SEE
A MORE GRADUAL DECLINE THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. FORECAST GOOD TO
GO...NO CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT CLEAR...COLD AND DRY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY GOOD
DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER
MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR OUR
COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS MORE TO
TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING
SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP
MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE
CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE
AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
CWA...SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN
UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP
TO CATEGORICAL.

STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM
WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING
AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER ON TUE.

THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW
JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI...
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN
BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. NW WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
DECREASE TO AOB 5 KT BY SUNRISE. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AROUND SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AT LEAST 8 DEGREES OR MORE ENSURE NO
FOG DEVELOPMENT. N WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W-SW
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME
INCREASING CI EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUED NW WINDS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS MOST LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NO CHANGES WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS
TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE
GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND SPEED TREND INTO
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO
30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE...
BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15
KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...BJR
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 310241
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
941 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...CLEAR AND COLD THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NO FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS
EVENING...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CLEAR SKIES NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S SO FAR BUT WITH CONTINUED MIXING WE WILL SEE
A MORE GRADUAL DECLINE THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. FORECAST GOOD TO
GO...NO CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT CLEAR...COLD AND DRY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY GOOD
DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER
MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR OUR
COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS MORE TO
TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING
SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP
MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE
CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE
AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
CWA...SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN
UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP
TO CATEGORICAL.

STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM
WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING
AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER ON TUE.

THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW
JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI...
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN
BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. NW WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
DECREASE TO AOB 5 KT BY SUNRISE. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AROUND SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AT LEAST 8 DEGREES OR MORE ENSURE NO
FOG DEVELOPMENT. N WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W-SW
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME
INCREASING CI EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUED NW WINDS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS MOST LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NO CHANGES WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS
TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE
GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND SPEED TREND INTO
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO
30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE...
BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15
KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...BJR
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 310241
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
941 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...CLEAR AND COLD THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NO FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS
EVENING...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CLEAR SKIES NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S SO FAR BUT WITH CONTINUED MIXING WE WILL SEE
A MORE GRADUAL DECLINE THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. FORECAST GOOD TO
GO...NO CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT CLEAR...COLD AND DRY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY GOOD
DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER
MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR OUR
COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS MORE TO
TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING
SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP
MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE
CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE
AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
CWA...SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN
UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP
TO CATEGORICAL.

STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM
WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING
AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER ON TUE.

THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW
JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI...
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN
BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. NW WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
DECREASE TO AOB 5 KT BY SUNRISE. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AROUND SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AT LEAST 8 DEGREES OR MORE ENSURE NO
FOG DEVELOPMENT. N WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W-SW
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME
INCREASING CI EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUED NW WINDS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS MOST LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NO CHANGES WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS
TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE
GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND SPEED TREND INTO
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO
30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE...
BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15
KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...BJR
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 310241
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
941 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...CLEAR AND COLD THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NO FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS
EVENING...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CLEAR SKIES NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S SO FAR BUT WITH CONTINUED MIXING WE WILL SEE
A MORE GRADUAL DECLINE THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. FORECAST GOOD TO
GO...NO CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT CLEAR...COLD AND DRY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY GOOD
DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER
MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR OUR
COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS MORE TO
TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING
SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP
MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE
CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE
AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
CWA...SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN
UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP
TO CATEGORICAL.

STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM
WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING
AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER ON TUE.

THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW
JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI...
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN
BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. NW WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
DECREASE TO AOB 5 KT BY SUNRISE. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AROUND SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AT LEAST 8 DEGREES OR MORE ENSURE NO
FOG DEVELOPMENT. N WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W-SW
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME
INCREASING CI EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUED NW WINDS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS MOST LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NO CHANGES WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS
TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE
GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND SPEED TREND INTO
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO
30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE...
BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15
KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...BJR
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310037
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
736 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT/COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING.  NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF ANYWHERE FROM 20-30MPH
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE TREND IN GUSTS WILL BE
DOWNWARD...MIXING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST SUNSET...WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  THE 1034MB HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE BUILDING EASTWARD
AND AS WINDS WEAKEN ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT COULD
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE FOR A FEW HOURS.  IF SO...12Z THICKNESSES
SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUPPORT LOWS REACHING THE LOWER
20S...WITH MID AND UPPER 20S TO EAST WHERE WIND WILL STAY UP LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.  12Z THICKNESSES DOWN NEAR 1280M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE
SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.  WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST. -BLS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THANKS TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT MIXING COUPLED WITH THE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VIA DEPARTURE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND... BECOMING MORE VARIABLE LATE
IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BSD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 302337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
637 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM FRIDAY...ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR NE SECTIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND VERIFYING SFC OBS INDICATE
PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE WITH DIMINISHING CAA SCU
FIELD. BREEZY CONDITIONS KEEPING TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY AND
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...CLOUDS OVER ERN TIER WILL GRAD SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN AND DISSIPATE WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU SUNSET ALL AREAS AND CONT ALL NIGHT FOR
THE COAST. OVER INLAND AREAS WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 20S COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
20S BEACHES. APPARENT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWRD THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND OVER THE AREA. ATMS IS VERY DRY AND
EXPECT CLR SKIES THRU MID DAY AND THEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTN AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MSUNNY SKIES
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 45 TO 50 DGR RANGE MOST AREAS...WITH
AROUND 40 FOR NE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER
COASTER TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REPRESENT A
NON- DIURNAL TREND AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND WEST- SOUTHWEST WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING MODERATE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. LOWS IN THE
20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE A LEVELING OFF AND BEGINNING A
WARMING TREND PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASING THICKNESSES YIELDING MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS HAS IMPROVED FURTHER FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN VA/MD/DE
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS 850MB SW JET
INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
RISING TO THE MID/UPPER 50S PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S REALIZED EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
NE POTIONS OF THE FA EARLY MON EVENING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY
ENDS THOUGH NO IMPACTS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

30/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES AREA OVER THE GOM WED AND MOVE IT
NORTHEAST UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED INTO THUR. HOWEVER A GLANCE AT
THE GFSENS MEAN INDICATES VERY LARGE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO MSLP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN. ECMWF
HAS NO GULF LOW AND A DEEPER ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THUR
WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NC COAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE MID WEEK. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS LURKING JUST TO THE
WEST AND NORTH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL WINTRY
WEATHER...THOUGH NO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS LONG RANGE AND ONLY
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IT TO MOM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SKC FOR TAF SITES
THROUGH PERIOD. CAA SCU WILL AFFECT NE PORTIONS OF AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE REST OF PERIOD WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM NW. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY BACK TO W SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W AND THEN NW
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SAT/...
AS OF 600 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. CURRENT OBS INDICATE
WINDS AND GUSTS BELOW 30 KT...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA WILL DEVELOP
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG PRES RISES UPSTREAM AND OBS OF GUSTS 30
TO 40 KT OVER CHES BAY...THUS WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING MOST OF
AREA WITH SCA ALB SOUND AND RIVERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS 225 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT KEEPING GRDNT TIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHLD PEAK
AROUND 6Z WITH SPEEDS 25 TO 35 KTS. WILL CONT CURRENT HEADLINES
HOWEVER GALES ARE LOOKING MARGINAL FOR SRN TIER AND POSS PAMLICO
SOUND. BLENDED WAVEWATCH AND SWAN FOR SEAS AS SWAN TENDS TO BE
TOO HIGH WITH NW WIND EVENTS...STILL SHLD SEE 8 TO 10 FEET FAR
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THE HIGH WILL BUILD TWRD THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS DURING THE
AFTN. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 6 FT FAR
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS THRU THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH
THE WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WEST LATE SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS INC TO SCA LEVELS...POSSIBLY GALES IN THE
OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS MON AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING TO
NW BY MON EVENING. GALES LOOK PROBABLY MON EVENING FOR ALL THE
WATERS AND POTENTIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDS AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TO THE NORTH PULLS DOWN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY ESP NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THE GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT
IN LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS FOR WRN PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT
RIVERS AND ABOVE NORMAL WATER ON SOUND SIDE OF OBX. AT THIS TIME
APPEARS WATER LEVEL CHANGES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET
AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...RF/TL /JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD...RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 302337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
637 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM FRIDAY...ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR NE SECTIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND VERIFYING SFC OBS INDICATE
PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE WITH DIMINISHING CAA SCU
FIELD. BREEZY CONDITIONS KEEPING TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY AND
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...CLOUDS OVER ERN TIER WILL GRAD SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN AND DISSIPATE WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU SUNSET ALL AREAS AND CONT ALL NIGHT FOR
THE COAST. OVER INLAND AREAS WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 20S COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
20S BEACHES. APPARENT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWRD THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND OVER THE AREA. ATMS IS VERY DRY AND
EXPECT CLR SKIES THRU MID DAY AND THEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTN AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MSUNNY SKIES
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 45 TO 50 DGR RANGE MOST AREAS...WITH
AROUND 40 FOR NE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER
COASTER TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REPRESENT A
NON- DIURNAL TREND AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND WEST- SOUTHWEST WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING MODERATE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. LOWS IN THE
20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE A LEVELING OFF AND BEGINNING A
WARMING TREND PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASING THICKNESSES YIELDING MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS HAS IMPROVED FURTHER FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN VA/MD/DE
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS 850MB SW JET
INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
RISING TO THE MID/UPPER 50S PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S REALIZED EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
NE POTIONS OF THE FA EARLY MON EVENING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY
ENDS THOUGH NO IMPACTS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

30/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES AREA OVER THE GOM WED AND MOVE IT
NORTHEAST UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED INTO THUR. HOWEVER A GLANCE AT
THE GFSENS MEAN INDICATES VERY LARGE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO MSLP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN. ECMWF
HAS NO GULF LOW AND A DEEPER ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THUR
WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NC COAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE MID WEEK. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS LURKING JUST TO THE
WEST AND NORTH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL WINTRY
WEATHER...THOUGH NO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS LONG RANGE AND ONLY
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IT TO MOM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SKC FOR TAF SITES
THROUGH PERIOD. CAA SCU WILL AFFECT NE PORTIONS OF AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE REST OF PERIOD WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM NW. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY BACK TO W SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W AND THEN NW
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SAT/...
AS OF 600 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. CURRENT OBS INDICATE
WINDS AND GUSTS BELOW 30 KT...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA WILL DEVELOP
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG PRES RISES UPSTREAM AND OBS OF GUSTS 30
TO 40 KT OVER CHES BAY...THUS WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING MOST OF
AREA WITH SCA ALB SOUND AND RIVERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS 225 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT KEEPING GRDNT TIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHLD PEAK
AROUND 6Z WITH SPEEDS 25 TO 35 KTS. WILL CONT CURRENT HEADLINES
HOWEVER GALES ARE LOOKING MARGINAL FOR SRN TIER AND POSS PAMLICO
SOUND. BLENDED WAVEWATCH AND SWAN FOR SEAS AS SWAN TENDS TO BE
TOO HIGH WITH NW WIND EVENTS...STILL SHLD SEE 8 TO 10 FEET FAR
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THE HIGH WILL BUILD TWRD THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS DURING THE
AFTN. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 6 FT FAR
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS THRU THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH
THE WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WEST LATE SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS INC TO SCA LEVELS...POSSIBLY GALES IN THE
OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS MON AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING TO
NW BY MON EVENING. GALES LOOK PROBABLY MON EVENING FOR ALL THE
WATERS AND POTENTIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDS AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TO THE NORTH PULLS DOWN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY ESP NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THE GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT
IN LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS FOR WRN PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT
RIVERS AND ABOVE NORMAL WATER ON SOUND SIDE OF OBX. AT THIS TIME
APPEARS WATER LEVEL CHANGES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET
AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...RF/TL /JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD...RF







000
FXUS62 KILM 302330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING DOWN INTO THE MID 40S SO FAR BUT WITH
CONTINUED MIXING WE WILL SEE A MORE GRADUAL DECLINE THAN OTHERWISE
EXPECTED. FORECAST GOOD TO GO...NO CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE.
EXPECT CLEAR...COLD AND DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL PEEL OFF INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT AS MIXING OFFSETS IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH EVENING.
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY GOOD
DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER
MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR OUR
COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS MORE TO
TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING
SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP
MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE
CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE
AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
CWA...SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN
UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP
TO CATEGORICAL.

STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM
WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING
AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER ON TUE.

THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW
JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI...
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN
BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. NW WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
DECREASE TO AOB 5 KT BY SUNRISE. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AROUND SUNRISE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AT LEAST 8 DEGREES OR MORE ENSURE NO
FOG DEVELOPMENT. N WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W-SW
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME
INCREASING CI EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE.
POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUED NW WINDS IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS MOST LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NO CHANGES WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS
TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE
GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND SPEED TREND INTO
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO
30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE...
BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15
KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...BJR
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR





000
FXUS62 KILM 302045
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL PEEL OFF INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT AS MIXING
OFFSETS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH
EVENING. DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY
GOOD DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S
OVER MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR
OUR COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS
MORE TO TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING
SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP
MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE
CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE
AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
CWA...SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN
UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP
TO CATEGORICAL.

STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM
WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING
AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER ON TUE.

THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW
JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI...
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN
BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER THEY WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 6-7 KTS MOST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE MODERATE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
THINGS MIXING. SATURDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND
SPEED TREND INTO PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP THE ADVISORY AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO
30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE...
BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15
KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...BJR
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 302045
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL PEEL OFF INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT AS MIXING
OFFSETS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH
EVENING. DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY
GOOD DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S
OVER MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR
OUR COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS
MORE TO TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING
SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP
MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE
CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE
AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
CWA...SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN
UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY
SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP
TO CATEGORICAL.

STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND
RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM
WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH
INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING
AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER ON TUE.

THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...
MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL
DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED
FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW
JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI...
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN
BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER THEY WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 6-7 KTS MOST OF THE
NIGHT AS THE MODERATE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
THINGS MIXING. SATURDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE RAIN WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND
SPEED TREND INTO PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP THE ADVISORY AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO
TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO
30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE...
BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15
KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED
MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...BJR
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR








000
FXUS62 KRAH 302040
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT/COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING.  NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF ANYWHERE FROM 20-30MPH
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE TREND IN GUSTS WILL BE
DOWNWARD...MIXING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST SUNSET...WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  THE 1034MB HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE BUILDING EASTWARD
AND AS WINDS WEAKEN ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT COULD
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE FOR A FEW HOURS.  IF SO...12Z THICKNESSES
SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUPPORT LOWS REACHING THE LOWER
20S...WITH MID AND UPPER 20S TO EAST WHERE WIND WILL STAY UP LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS.  12Z THICKNESSES DOWN NEAR 1280M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE
SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE COOLEST IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.  WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S EAST TO AROUND 30
WEST. -BLS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING
TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT
ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE
ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS (CROSSWINDS FOR MANY RUNWAYS) OF
ANYWHERE FROM 25KT TO 35KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.  THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED STRATOCU WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED FROM KRDU NORTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 302040
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT/COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING.  NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF ANYWHERE FROM 20-30MPH
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE TREND IN GUSTS WILL