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000
FXUS62 KMHX 230729
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY HOWEVER NE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE INTERVALS
OF SCT/BKN SC ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LOW TO THE NE. INSOLATION
WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH MID 60S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE
THIS MORNING. MAY SEE FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO
18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH
MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND
SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR
SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 230706
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY HOWEVER NE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE INTERVALS
OF SCT/BKN SC ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LOW TO THE NE. INSOLATION
WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH MID 60S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM NW.
SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS
AROUND 70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE
THIS MORNING. MAY SEE FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO
18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW MOVING OUT
TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NW...THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...JBM/BTC






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000
FXUS62 KILM 230705
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
305 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY THIS
MORNING...HIGH AND DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR A
HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NW AND W THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND WE ARE
FORECASTING A SUNNY DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ABATE
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. FLAT TO SUBTLE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY BRING SOME CIRRUS
TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY LATER TODAY AND THIS MODIFICATION
PROCESS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE IN THE COMING DAYS. WE EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE NEAR THOSE OF WED...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...LOWER 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG ON LONGEST. UPPER 60S WILL BE MOST COMMON
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND CAPE FEAR COAST THROUGH WHITEVILLE AND
LUMBERTON AND POINTS NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
MID 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA ON
SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN DRY.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. SUBSIDENCE
AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNRISE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE RESULT...NNW TO NW
WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE
A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. THE DIRECTION
WILL VERY SLOWLY VEER TO NORTH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 4
FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43/RJD






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000
FXUS62 KRAH 230705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER NC...THOUGH WEAKENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...WITH VERY DRY AIR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  A FEW WIND GUSTS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND
THICKNESSES WILL START ABOUT 5M HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SUPPORTING
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE 66-70 RANGE.

TONIGHT...A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  CURRENTLY...IT DOESNT APPEAR THE CIRRUS WILL BE VERY
THICK...BUT IF IT IS THEN FORECAST LOWS OF 40-43 MAY BE TOO COLD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY..

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FORM THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
...WITH A DISTURBANCE POISED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED.  THICKNESSES RISE ANOTHER 10M BY FRIDAY
MORNING...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS
SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW
LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING
ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF
THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL.
EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT
SATURDAY`S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD
FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW... ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS
THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND
FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND
TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230636
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS
SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW
LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING
ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF
THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL.
EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT
SATURDAY`S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD
FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW... ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS
THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND
FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND
TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230552
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230552
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 230541
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
142 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TO
OFF THE NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC HAS
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. THE CLOUDS
CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N THRU E OF THE ILM
CWA AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF LIFTS TO THE NE. THEREFORE...WILL BE
LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE MASSAGED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS WITH SOME UPPER 30S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNRISE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR TO THE OCEAN
SFC AS 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK OCCUR ACROSS SSTS IN THE
70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND
4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1 FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND
PERIODS TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/RJD






000
FXUS62 KMHX 230522
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE AWAY FROM
THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLY. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
INLAND WE WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE
THIS MORNING. MAY SEE FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO
18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/BTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...CGG/RSB/JBM







000
FXUS62 KILM 230240
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TO
OFF THE NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC HAS
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. THE CLOUDS
CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N THRU E OF THE ILM
CWA AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF LIFTS TO THE NE. THEREFORE...WILL BE
LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE MASSAGED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS
LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS WITH SOME UPPER 30S ADVECTING INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR TO THE OCEAN
SFC AS 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK OCCUR ACROSS SSTS IN THE
70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND
4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1 FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND
PERIODS TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 230222
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS THIS UPDATE TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SOME LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS. THIS LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
TOWARDS MORNING. STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST LOCATIONS. A MID LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. ALONG THE NORTHEAST CWA FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT IT TO GRADUALLY ERODE TOWARDS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/RSB
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/JME/DAG
MARINE...CGG/RSB/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230222
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS THIS UPDATE TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SOME LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS. THIS LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
TOWARDS MORNING. STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST LOCATIONS. A MID LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. ALONG THE NORTHEAST CWA FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT IT TO GRADUALLY ERODE TOWARDS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/RSB
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/JME/DAG
MARINE...CGG/RSB/JBM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 230108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER A BREEZY DAY TODAY...THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY).
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST (INCLUDING KRWI)...WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST) BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER A BREEZY DAY TODAY...THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY).
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST (INCLUDING KRWI)...WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST) BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 230018
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
KEPT A VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR THE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS CHANCE WILL
END BY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT AND THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...RSB/JBM
MARINE...RSB/CGG/JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 230018
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
KEPT A VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR THE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS CHANCE WILL
END BY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT AND THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...RSB/JBM
MARINE...RSB/CGG/JBM





000
FXUS62 KILM 230010
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
810 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO OFF
NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING AT
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS MASSAGED BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN
INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS
...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA
UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR
AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR WITH 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK AND OCCURRING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN
THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS
SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1
FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS REMAINS
IDENTIFIABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR
OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER
OFF SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY
FARTHER OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS
IN OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 230010
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
810 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO OFF
NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING AT
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS MASSAGED BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN
INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS
...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA
UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR
AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR WITH 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK AND OCCURRING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN
THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS
SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1
FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS REMAINS
IDENTIFIABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR
OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER
OFF SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY
FARTHER OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS
IN OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 222346
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE THU/THU NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT...DEAMPLIFYING LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE TOP OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THU...WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND LITTLE MORE THAN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE
WEST LATE THU/THU NIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
12Z FRI. ANTICIPATE HIGH/LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER A BREEZY DAY TODAY...THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY).
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST (INCLUDING KRWI)...WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST) BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KILM 222217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER
THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF
SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER
OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 222217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER
THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF
SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER
OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221955
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 139 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT BETWEEN THE
MODELS BUT THOSE DIFFERENCES WONT AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWING MOISTURE BECOMING
SHALLOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND WEAK LIFT DIMINISHING. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO DECREASE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD MOVE OUT SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 209 PM WED...TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST DEEPENS AS IT LIFT UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH WIND REACHING UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AND WESTERN LOW
WILL SWING DOWN THE COAST TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WIND
MAY REACH AS HIGH AS GALE CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL STAY WITH SCA
HEADLINES DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...6 TO 7 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW...WITH WIND STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA...15 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM/DAG
MARINE...CGG/JBM






000
FXUS62 KILM 221908
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER
THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF
SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER
OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221908
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE THU/THU NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT...DEAMPLIFYING LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE TOP OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THU...WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND LITTLE MORE THAN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE
WEST LATE THU/THU NIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
12Z FRI. ANTICIPATE HIGH/LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN
ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
STALLED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NW BREEZE SUSTAINED AT 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET...THEN
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AFTER SUNRISE THU.

LOOKING AHEAD: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221853
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERIFYING WELL AND WILL LARGELY BE LEFT AS-
IS...ASIDE FROM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER (CLR-BKN GRADIENT)
FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIOR DISCUSSION
SUMS UP THE FORECAST SO WELL THAT IT WILL BE LEFT INTACT THROUGH THE
MORNING UPDATE. -VINCENT

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS... WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-7000
FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT...PARTICULARLY IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/AT KRDU AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE...NW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID
TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
LIGHT...STILL FROM THE NW...AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/MWS
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 221847
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 139 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT BETWEEN THE
MODELS BUT THOSE DIFFERENCES WONT AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWING MOISTURE BECOMING
SHALLOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND WEAK LIFT DIMINISHING. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO DECREASE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD MOVE OUT SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A
DRY REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE AGAIN
REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR CLIMO...LOW
TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 209 PM WED...TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST DEEPENS AS IT LIFT UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH WIND REACHING UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AND WESTERN LOW
WILL SWING DOWN THE COAST TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WIND
MAY REACH AS HIGH AS GALE CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL STAY WITH SCA
HEADLINES DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...6 TO 7 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW...WITH WIND STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA...15 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM
MARINE...CGG/JBM







000
FXUS62 KILM 221807
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
207 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SUNNY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE MAY SEE A CLOUD OR TWO OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER
TO 70 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE WINDS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTS AOA 20
KT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER
THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF
SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER
OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN









000
FXUS62 KMHX 221646
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUNDS COUNTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH MID
LEVEL TROUGH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN NORTHERN WATERS...15
TO 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 221646
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUNDS COUNTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH MID
LEVEL TROUGH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN NORTHERN WATERS...15
TO 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 221629
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUNDS COUNTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH MID
LEVEL TROUGH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL
HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN NORTHERN WATERS...15
TO 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221629
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUNDS COUNTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH MID
LEVEL TROUGH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL
HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN NORTHERN WATERS...15
TO 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221625
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1225 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
ANOTHER SURGE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES
HAVE CEILINGS OF 4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA
KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VS BY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SAC HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NW PS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NW PS/WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AM130-131-
     135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AM150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AM156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/JME
MARINE...BTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221625
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1225 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
ANOTHER SURGE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES
HAVE CEILINGS OF 4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA
KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VS BY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SAC HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NW PS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NW PS/WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AM130-131-
     135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AM150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AM156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/JME
MARINE...BTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KRAH 221436
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERIFYING WELL AND WILL LARGELY BE LEFT AS-
IS...ASIDE FROM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER (CLR-BKN GRADIENT)
FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIOR DISCUSSION
SUMS UP THE FORECAST SO WELL THAT IT WILL BE LEFT INTACT THROUGH THE
MORNING UPDATE. -VINCENT

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS... WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL AND UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NC THU. A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...ONE SPANNING
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THU NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-7000
FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT...PARTICULARLY IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/AT KRDU AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE...NW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID
TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
LIGHT...STILL FROM THE NW...AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 221426
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1026 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MILD AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SUNNY BREEZY AND COOL DAY TODAY
AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON BACK END OF POTENT MID TO
UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
OVERALL VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
TODAY. THEREFORE MAY SEE A CLOUD OR TWO OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT
OVERALL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL TRY AND OFFSET THE CAA TO BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO 70 TODAY...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH
TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS WELL AS VERY DRY
AIR. THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES THIS AFTN IN
MANY PLACES.

TONIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 40-45 DEGREES...WITH WIND
CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE 12Z-22Z WINDOW WHEN NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KT...PERHAPS EVEN 25 KT...ARE
EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT CONTINUES
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HOLD BASICALLY FOR OUTER RIM OF LOCAL WATERS
WHERE A FEW 5 FTERS EXIST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE FROM THE GUSTY
NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OR SO THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN. SEAS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF SHORE NW WIND...BUT
SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY
2-5 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE
TIED WITH WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE
RULE OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL EASE UP A LITTLE
TONIGHT BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AS LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
WATERS...WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN









000
FXUS62 KMHX 221346
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
946 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
ANOTHER SURGE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL
HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KRAH 221147
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
747 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS...WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL AND UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NC THU. A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...ONE SPANNING
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THU NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-7000
FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT...PARTICULARLY IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/AT KRDU AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE...NW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID
TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
LIGHT...STILL FROM THE NW...AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 221136
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE 12Z-22Z WINDOW WHEN NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KT...PERHAPS EVEN 25 KT...ARE
EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...XXXI
MARINE...8/3









000
FXUS62 KMHX 221045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WILL PRODUCE INTERVALS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY (TO 25 TO 30
MPH, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST) AS LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES
AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY INTERVALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS LARGELY IN THE MID 60S,
COOLEST NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL
HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
STAY WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT
GALE GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF
LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KILM 220957
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8/RAN
MARINE...8/3










000
FXUS62 KILM 220957
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8/RAN
MARINE...8/3










000
FXUS62 KILM 220955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KILM 220955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KILM 220735
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND
HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA.
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NO ADVISORIES FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS IN
PLACE BUT NW WINDS OF 20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4
FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE
TIED WITH WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE
RULE OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY
ARE EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW
SHOULD EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE
WEARS OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8







000
FXUS62 KRAH 220733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS...WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL AND UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NC THU. A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...ONE SPANNING
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THU NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220725
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS...WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 220721
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE THROUGH
OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PRODUCE INTERVALS OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NW WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY (TO 25 TO 30 MPH, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST) AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTERVALS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S, COOLEST NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS
AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED
CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
STAY WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT
GALE GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF
LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 220647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE THROUGH
OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PRODUCE INTERVALS OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NW WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY (TO 25 TO 30 MPH, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST) AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTERVALS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S, COOLEST NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS
AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED
CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORECE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
STAY WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT
GALE GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF
LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS
WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW
WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL







000
FXUS62 KRAH 220624
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220623
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 220526
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW DIVING SE THRU VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE GRAZING NORTHERN FORECAST AREA IN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST BEHIND THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
PASSED JUST OFF THE COAST. LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS
AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED
CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HASS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/JME/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220526
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW DIVING SE THRU VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE GRAZING NORTHERN FORECAST AREA IN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST BEHIND THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
PASSED JUST OFF THE COAST. LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS
AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED
CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HASS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/JME/TL







000
FXUS62 KILM 220508
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST SFC
PRESSURE PROG CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT TO DROP SE AND
PUSH THROUGH AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID-LATE EVENING. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS CFP...THE CAA SURGE IS PROGGED TO LAG 3 TO 6 HRS
BEHIND THE INITIAL CFP. THEREFORE...DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED
HRS...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN AND COMBINE WITH THE CAA SURGE TO
PRODUCE A NW WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATM WELL
MIXED WITH NO LIKELIHOOD OF FOG. THE MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE
ILM CWA WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL...ENOUGH FOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT BUT NO WHERE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED PCPN
OCCURRENCE. THIS ILLUSTRATED WELL WITH VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ILM CWA. OF NOTE...MODEST MID-
LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND RESULT IN SOME WEAK
UVVS...JUST NOT ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FOR PCPN. TWEAKED MIN
TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT SFC DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER RESPECTIVELY DUE
TO LATEST TRENDS. SUBSEQUENT SFC RH AND APPARENT TEMP FIELDS
ADJUSTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 108 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL HOLD OFF WITH RAISING A SCEC THIS
PACKAGE. BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...A BRIEF SCEC MAY BE NEEDED
COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT OR THE ENSUING 1 TO 2 PERIODS. MODEST CAA
SURGE DELAYED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING
SFC PG AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT...
INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT NW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LATE TONIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THE MIXING OF THESE WINDS
DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT WIND GUSTS FOR
EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT...WITH 5
FOOTERS APPEARING LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THE ENSUING 1 TO 2 PERIODS.
THEIR OCCURRENCE WILL BE OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF
THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT IN THE FORM OF
A GROUND SWELL. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...DCH/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...8







000
FXUS62 KILM 220508
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE CONTINUES TO BE THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST SFC
PRESSURE PROG CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT TO DROP SE AND
PUSH THROUGH AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID-LATE EVENING. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS CFP...THE CAA SURGE IS PROGGED TO LAG 3 TO 6 HRS
BEHIND THE INITIAL CFP. THEREFORE...DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED
HRS...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN AND COMBINE WITH THE CAA SURGE TO
PRODUCE A NW WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATM WELL
MIXED WITH NO LIKELIHOOD OF FOG. THE MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE
ILM CWA WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL...ENOUGH FOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT BUT NO WHERE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED PCPN
OCCURRENCE. THIS ILLUSTRATED WELL WITH VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ILM CWA. OF NOTE...MODEST MID-
LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND RESULT IN SOME WEAK
UVVS...JUST NOT ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FOR PCPN. TWEAKED MIN
TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT SFC DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER RESPECTIVELY DUE
TO LATEST TRENDS. SUBSEQUENT SFC RH AND APPARENT TEMP FIELDS
ADJUSTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE N AFT 6Z ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT-BKN070. NNW GUSTS TO 24KT AFT 14Z. CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 9Z
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. SCATTERED CU POSSIBLE WITH AFTN HEATING
SCT050-060. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING BUT LIKELY STAY
4-7 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 108 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL HOLD OFF WITH RAISING A SCEC THIS
PACKAGE. BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...A BRIEF SCEC MAY BE NEEDED
COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT OR THE ENSUING 1 TO 2 PERIODS. MODEST CAA
SURGE DELAYED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING
SFC PG AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT...
INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT NW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LATE TONIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THE MIXING OF THESE WINDS
DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT WIND GUSTS FOR
EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT...WITH 5
FOOTERS APPEARING LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THE ENSUING 1 TO 2 PERIODS.
THEIR OCCURRENCE WILL BE OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF
THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT IN THE FORM OF
A GROUND SWELL. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...DCH/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...8







000
FXUS62 KILM 220255
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1055 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST SFC PRESSURE
PROG CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT TO DROP SE AND PUSH THROUGH
AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID-LATE EVENING. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CFP...THE CAA SURGE IS PROGGED TO LAG 3 TO 6 HRS BEHIND THE
INITIAL CFP. THEREFORE...DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS...THE SFC PG
WILL TIGHTEN AND COMBINE WITH THE CAA SURGE TO PRODUCE A NW WIND
AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH MAINLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATM WELL MIXED WITH NO
LIKELIHOOD OF FOG. THE MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL...ENOUGH FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BUT NO
WHERE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED PCPN OCCURRENCE. THIS ILLUSTRATED
WELL WITH VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE ILM CWA. OF NOTE...MODEST MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FA AND RESULT IN SOME WEAK UVVS...JUST NOT ENUF MOISTURE TO
SQUEEZE OUT FOR PCPN. TWEAKED MIN TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT SFC
DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER RESPECTIVELY DUE TO LATEST TRENDS.
SUBSEQUENT SFC RH AND APPARENT TEMP FIELDS ADJUSTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WEAK RADIATIONAL INVERSION IS SETTING UP...BUT IT ONLY
SHOULD LAST THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP. WILL
TAKE  THE GUSTS OUT DUE TO THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE PASSAGE. A
BRIEF VFR STRATOCU CEILING IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...WILL HOLD OFF WITH RAISING A SCEC THIS
PACKAGE. BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...A BRIEF SCEC MAY BE NEEDED
COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT OR THE ENSUING 1 TO 2 PERIODS. MODEST CAA
SURGE DELAYED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING
SFC PG AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT...
INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT NW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LATE TONIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THE MIXING OF THESE WINDS
DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT WIND GUSTS FOR
EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT...WITH 5
FOOTERS APPEARING LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THE ENSUING 1 TO 2 PERIODS.
THEIR OCCURRENCE WILL BE OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF
THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT IN THE FORM OF
A GROUND SWELL. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 220255
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1055 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST SFC PRESSURE
PROG CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT TO DROP SE AND PUSH THROUGH
AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID-LATE EVENING. LIKE THE PREVIOUS
CFP...THE CAA SURGE IS PROGGED TO LAG 3 TO 6 HRS BEHIND THE
INITIAL CFP. THEREFORE...DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS...THE SFC PG
WILL TIGHTEN AND COMBINE WITH THE CAA SURGE TO PRODUCE A NW WIND
AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH MAINLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATM WELL MIXED WITH NO
LIKELIHOOD OF FOG. THE MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL...ENOUGH FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BUT NO
WHERE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED PCPN OCCURRENCE. THIS ILLUSTRATED
WELL WITH VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE ILM CWA. OF NOTE...MODEST MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FA AND RESULT IN SOME WEAK UVVS...JUST NOT ENUF MOISTURE TO
SQUEEZE OUT FOR PCPN. TWEAKED MIN TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT SFC
DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER RESPECTIVELY DUE TO LATEST TRENDS.
SUBSEQUENT SFC RH AND APPARENT TEMP FIELDS ADJUSTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WEAK RADIATIONAL INVERSION IS SETTING UP...BUT IT ONLY
SHOULD LAST THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP. WILL
TAKE  THE GUSTS OUT DUE TO THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE PASSAGE. A
BRIEF VFR STRATOCU CEILING IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...WILL HOLD OFF WITH RAISING A SCEC THIS
PACKAGE. BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...A BRIEF SCEC MAY BE NEEDED
COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT OR THE ENSUING 1 TO 2 PERIODS. MODEST CAA
SURGE DELAYED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING
SFC PG AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT...
INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT NW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LATE TONIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THE MIXING OF THESE WINDS
DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT WIND GUSTS FOR
EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT...WITH 5
FOOTERS APPEARING LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THE ENSUING 1 TO 2 PERIODS.
THEIR OCCURRENCE WILL BE OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF
THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT IN THE FORM OF
A GROUND SWELL. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM
THE GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/DL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 220231
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1031 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
NC CURRENTLY. DID HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
BUT THEY ARE PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND ARE WIDELY SCATTERED.
MADE MINOR POP TWEAK BACK TO 30 ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CWA. HIGH
BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 730PM TUESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BEHIND IT. INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WESTERLY
WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND 20 KT
LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RSB/TL/LEP
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220231
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1031 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
NC CURRENTLY. DID HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
BUT THEY ARE PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND ARE WIDELY SCATTERED.
MADE MINOR POP TWEAK BACK TO 30 ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CWA. HIGH
BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 730PM TUESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BEHIND IT. INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WESTERLY
WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND 20 KT
LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RSB/TL/LEP
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL







000
FXUS62 KRAH 220112
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
912 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY WHILE IT
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CLEAR THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADDITIONALLY THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WERE NOTED
NEAR THE VA BORDER AND THIS IS WHERE THE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO IN CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS 3500-5000FT...MAINLY
IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THIS
FEATURE MAY ALSO RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST (IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI)...BUT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...KRD/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 212357
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
757 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TRIAD REGION BY 22Z...THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS BY
00Z...AND EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 02Z. PER MESO-ANALYSIS
PLOTS...AIR MASS STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. HOWEVER LATEST RAP
AND HRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NE PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SOME OF THESE WRF MODELS
ARE NAM BASED WHICH IS WETTER MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...BELIEVE A 1:3 CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY
OF ROANOKE RAPIDS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO.

MARGINALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A N0NW
WIND GUSTING UP TO 20KTS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD
MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY DAYBREAK. MOS GUIDANCE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT RANGING IN THE MID 40S OVER THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CLEAR THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADDITIONALLY THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WERE NOTED
NEAR THE VA BORDER AND THIS IS WHERE THE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO IN CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS 3500-5000FT...MAINLY
IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THIS
FEATURE MAY ALSO RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST (IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI)...BUT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...KRD/WSS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 212330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP...SKY
COVER...AND TEMPS TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
SCALED BACK POPS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT LATEST GUIDANCE
AND GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WENT NO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AND ANY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
LIGHT.  MORE CONFIDENT THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER
THE AREA TO REFLECT THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OBSERVED
JUST TO OUR WEST THAT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 730PM TUESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE...JUST
MINOR TWEAKS IN THE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSING FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACCOMPANYING A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RSB/TL
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL







000
FXUS62 KILM 212330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE WILL BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING-WISE...LATEST SFC
PRESSURE PROG CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT TO DROP SE AND
PUSH THROUGH AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID-EVENING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS CFP...THE CAA SURGE IS PROGGED TO LAG 3 TO 6 HRS BEHIND
THE INITIAL CFP. AFTER MIDNIGHT WED AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED
HRS...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN AND COMBINE WITH THE CAA SURGE TO
PRODUCE A NW WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ATM WELL MIXED WITH NO LIKELIHOOD OF FOG. THE MOISTURE PROFILES
ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...ENOUGH FOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT BUT NO WHERE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED PCPN
OCCURRENCE. THIS SEEN WELL WITH VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ILM CWA. OF NOTE...MODEST
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND RESULT IN WEAK
UVVS...JUST NOT ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FOR PCPN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S TOWARD 80
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING LEFT BEHIND
DEEP SW-W FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN
VERY DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. OVERALL EXPECT A CLOUDLESS SKY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO OR CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES.

MID TO UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID
IN KEEPING A VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP.
A FEW CLOUDS MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN
IMPACTS OF THE FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER.
CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE 40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WEAK RADIATIONAL INVERSION IS SETTING UP...BUT IT ONLY
SHOULD LAST THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP. WILL
TAKE  THE GUSTS OUT DUE TO THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE PASSAGE. A
BRIEF VFR STRATOCU CEILING IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...WILL HOLD OFF WITH RAISING A SCEC THIS
PACKAGE. BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...ONE WILL BE NEEDED COMMENCING
LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THE ENSUING 1 TO 2 PERIODS. MODEST CAA SURGE
DELAYED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT...
INTENSIFIES AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT NW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LATE TONIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THE MIXING OF THESE WINDS
DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN... POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT...WITH 5
FOOTERS APPEARING LATE TONIGHT AND THE ENSUING PERIOD OR 2.
THEIR OCCURRENCE WILL BE OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF
THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT IN THE FORM OF
A GROUND SWELL. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6
SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH
MORE OF A SW WIND NEAR SHORE IN SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL
HOLD LESS THAN 3 FT WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AND
PLENTY OF COOL AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP TO 15-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS COOLER AIR BLOWS
OVER THE WARMER WATERS. WILL HOLD BACK FROM A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT AS WATERS NEAR SHORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND OFF SHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS BUT AS YOU GO JUST BEYOND 20 NM TOWARD THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
IN CAA OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A FEW 5 FTERS JUST NEAR THE 20 NM
MARK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP/DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL





000
FXUS62 KILM 212306
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE WILL BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING-WISE...LATEST SFC
PRESSURE PROG CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT TO DROP SE AND
PUSH THROUGH AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID-EVENING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS CFP...THE CAA SURGE IS PROGGED TO LAG 3 TO 6 HRS BEHIND
THE INITIAL CFP. AFTER MIDNIGHT WED AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED
HRS...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN AND COMBINE WITH THE CAA SURGE TO
PRODUCE A NW WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ATM WELL MIXED WITH NO LIKELIHOOD OF FOG. THE MOISTURE PROFILES
ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...ENOUGH FOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT BUT NO WHERE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED PCPN
OCCURRENCE. THIS SEEN WELL WITH VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ILM CWA. OF NOTE...MODEST
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND RESULT IN WEAK
UVVS...JUST NOT ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FOR PCPN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S TOWARD 80
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING LEFT BEHIND
DEEP SW-W FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN
VERY DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. OVERALL EXPECT A CLOUDLESS SKY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO OR CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES.

MID TO UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID
IN KEEPING A VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP.
A FEW CLOUDS MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN
IMPACTS OF THE FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER.
CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE 40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WEAK RADIATIONAL INVERSION IS SETTING UP...BUT IT ONLY
SHOULD LAST THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP. WILL
TAKE  THE GUSTS OUT DUE TO THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE PASSAGE. A
BRIEF VFR STRATOCU CEILING IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MORE OF A SW
WIND NEAR SHORE IN SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL HOLD LESS THAN 3
FT WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AND
PLENTY OF COOL AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP TO 15-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS COOLER AIR BLOWS
OVER THE WARMER WATERS. WILL HOLD BACK FROM A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT AS WATERS NEAR SHORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND OFF SHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS BUT AS YOU GO JUST BEYOND 20 NM TOWARD THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
IN CAA OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A FEW 5 FTERS JUST NEAR THE 20 NM
MARK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...










000
FXUS62 KILM 212306
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE WILL BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING-WISE...LATEST SFC
PRESSURE PROG CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT TO DROP SE AND
PUSH THROUGH AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID-EVENING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS CFP...THE CAA SURGE IS PROGGED TO LAG 3 TO 6 HRS BEHIND
THE INITIAL CFP. AFTER MIDNIGHT WED AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED
HRS...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN AND COMBINE WITH THE CAA SURGE TO
PRODUCE A NW WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ATM WELL MIXED WITH NO LIKELIHOOD OF FOG. THE MOISTURE PROFILES
ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...ENOUGH FOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT BUT NO WHERE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED PCPN
OCCURRENCE. THIS SEEN WELL WITH VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ILM CWA. OF NOTE...MODEST
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND RESULT IN WEAK
UVVS...JUST NOT ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FOR PCPN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S TOWARD 80
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING LEFT BEHIND
DEEP SW-W FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN
VERY DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. OVERALL EXPECT A CLOUDLESS SKY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO OR CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES.

MID TO UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID
IN KEEPING A VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP.
A FEW CLOUDS MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN
IMPACTS OF THE FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER.
CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE 40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WEAK RADIATIONAL INVERSION IS SETTING UP...BUT IT ONLY
SHOULD LAST THROUGH ABOUT 05-06Z AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP. WILL
TAKE  THE GUSTS OUT DUE TO THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE PASSAGE. A
BRIEF VFR STRATOCU CEILING IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MORE OF A SW
WIND NEAR SHORE IN SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL HOLD LESS THAN 3
FT WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AND
PLENTY OF COOL AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP TO 15-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS COOLER AIR BLOWS
OVER THE WARMER WATERS. WILL HOLD BACK FROM A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT AS WATERS NEAR SHORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND OFF SHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS BUT AS YOU GO JUST BEYOND 20 NM TOWARD THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
IN CAA OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A FEW 5 FTERS JUST NEAR THE 20 NM
MARK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...










000
FXUS62 KILM 212301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
701 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE WILL BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING-WISE...LATEST SFC
PRESSURE PROG CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT TO DROP SE AND
PUSH THROUGH AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID-EVENING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS CFP...THE CAA SURGE IS PROGGED TO LAG 3 TO 6 HRS BEHIND
THE INITIAL CFP. AFTER MIDNIGHT WED AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED
HRS...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN AND COMBINE WITH THE CAA SURGE TO
PRODUCE A NW WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ATM WELL MIXED WITH NO LIKELIHOOD OF FOG. THE MOISTURE PROFILES
ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...ENOUGH FOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT BUT NO WHERE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED PCPN
OCCURRENCE. THIS SEEN WELL WITH VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ILM CWA. OF NOTE...MODEST
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND RESULT IN WEAK
UVVS...JUST NOT ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FOR PCPN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S TOWARD 80
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING LEFT BEHIND
DEEP SW-W FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN
VERY DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. OVERALL EXPECT A CLOUDLESS SKY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO OR CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES.

MID TO UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID
IN KEEPING A VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP.
A FEW CLOUDS MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN
IMPACTS OF THE FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER.
CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE 40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A DRY COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR
PREVAILS INTO WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MORE OF A SW
WIND NEAR SHORE IN SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL HOLD LESS THAN 3
FT WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AND
PLENTY OF COOL AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP TO 15-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS COOLER AIR BLOWS
OVER THE WARMER WATERS. WILL HOLD BACK FROM A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT AS WATERS NEAR SHORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND OFF SHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS BUT AS YOU GO JUST BEYOND 20 NM TOWARD THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
IN CAA OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A FEW 5 FTERS JUST NEAR THE 20 NM
MARK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KILM 212301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
701 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE WILL BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING-WISE...LATEST SFC
PRESSURE PROG CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT TO DROP SE AND
PUSH THROUGH AND OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID-EVENING. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS CFP...THE CAA SURGE IS PROGGED TO LAG 3 TO 6 HRS BEHIND
THE INITIAL CFP. AFTER MIDNIGHT WED AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED
HRS...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN AND COMBINE WITH THE CAA SURGE TO
PRODUCE A NW WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
ATM WELL MIXED WITH NO LIKELIHOOD OF FOG. THE MOISTURE PROFILES
ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...ENOUGH FOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT BUT NO WHERE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED PCPN
OCCURRENCE. THIS SEEN WELL WITH VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ILM CWA. OF NOTE...MODEST
MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND RESULT IN WEAK
UVVS...JUST NOT ENUF MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FOR PCPN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S TOWARD 80
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING LEFT BEHIND
DEEP SW-W FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN
VERY DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. OVERALL EXPECT A CLOUDLESS SKY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO OR CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES.

MID TO UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID
IN KEEPING A VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP.
A FEW CLOUDS MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN
IMPACTS OF THE FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER.
CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE 40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A DRY COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR
PREVAILS INTO WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MORE OF A SW
WIND NEAR SHORE IN SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL HOLD LESS THAN 3
FT WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AND
PLENTY OF COOL AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP TO 15-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS COOLER AIR BLOWS
OVER THE WARMER WATERS. WILL HOLD BACK FROM A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT AS WATERS NEAR SHORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND OFF SHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS BUT AS YOU GO JUST BEYOND 20 NM TOWARD THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
IN CAA OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A FEW 5 FTERS JUST NEAR THE 20 NM
MARK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 212253
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP...SKY
COVER...AND TEMPS TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
SCALED BACK POPS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT LATEST GUIDANCE
AND GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WENT NO
HIGHR THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AND ANY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
LIGHT.  MORE CONFIDENT THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER
THE AREA TO REFLECT THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OBSERVED
JUST TO OUR WEST THAT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 130PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT
HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE...JUST
MINOR TWEAKS IN THE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSING FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACCOMPANYING A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 212253
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP...SKY
COVER...AND TEMPS TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
SCALED BACK POPS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT LATEST GUIDANCE
AND GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WENT NO
HIGHR THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AND ANY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
LIGHT.  MORE CONFIDENT THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER
THE AREA TO REFLECT THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OBSERVED
JUST TO OUR WEST THAT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 130PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT
HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE...JUST
MINOR TWEAKS IN THE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSING FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACCOMPANYING A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211945
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WHICH INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. MORE
CONFIDENT THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 130PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT
HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT. WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
SHIFT TO NW AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JME/TL











000
FXUS62 KRAH 211906
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
307 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TRIAD REGION BY 22Z...THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS BY
00Z...AND EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 02Z. PER MESO-ANALYSIS
PLOTS...AIR MASS STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. HOWEVER LATEST RAP
AND HRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NE PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SOME OF THESE WRF MODELS
ARE NAM BASED WHICH IS WETTER MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...BELIEVE A 1:3 CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY
OF ROANOKE RAPIDS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO.

MARGINALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A N0NW
WIND GUSTING UP TO 20KTS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD
MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY DAYBREAK. MOS GUIDANCE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT RANGING IN THE MID 40S OVER THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS
VEERING FROM THE WEST-SW TO THE N-NW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 8-12KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A LOW END VFR CEILING 3500-5000FT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND
KRWI. ENOUGH LIFT MAY OCCUR TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT A SHOWER WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF A TERMINAL IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE AERODROME FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR AFTER 04Z.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BLUSTERY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTS 18-23KTS
HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS
3500-5000FT IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT MORE SO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211904
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STEADY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 70S NORTH...AND MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED
(AS PER 12Z GSO SOUNDING)...ENOUGH LIFT GENERATED BY THE FRONT AND
ATTENDANT S/W MAY CAUSE A STRAY SHOWER OR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BLUSTERY AT TIMES AS LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. MIN TEMPS MID 40S WEST TO UPEPR 40S
EAST-SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS
VEERING FROM THE WEST-SW TO THE N-NW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 8-12KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A LOW END VFR CEILING 3500-5000FT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND
KRWI. ENOUGH LIFT MAY OCCUR TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT A SHOWER WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF A TERMINAL IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE AERODROME FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR AFTER 04Z.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BLUSTERY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTS 18-23KTS
HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS
3500-5000FT IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT MORE SO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 211830
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S TOWARD 80
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING LEFT BEHIND
DEEP SW-W FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN
VERY DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. OVERALL EXPECT A CLOUDLESS SKY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO OR CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES.

MID TO UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID
IN KEEPING A VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP.
A FEW CLOUDS MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN
IMPACTS OF THE FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER.
CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE 40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES TO OFF THE
JERSEY SHORE. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
ABOVE H85 WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY REACH A
HALF INCH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY 0.4 INCHES THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURGE
IN COOL SFC-LOW LEVEL AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SOMEWHAT HINDER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OF A
FACTOR THURSDAY NIGHT THUS MET/MAV MIGHT BE A CATEGORY TOO WARM MOST
LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF
FILLS AND MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY...THIS LEAVES AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK IMPULSES SERVING AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY DRY HOWEVER...WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW
0.75 INCHES THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FALLING TO AS LOW AS 0.30 INCHES
LATE IN THE WKND. IF THESE VERY LOW PWATS VERIFY...THEY WILL
APPROACH ALL-TIME LOW THRESHOLDS FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE AREA.
IN OTHER WORDS...NO PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL DRIVE
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE...AND THUS WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE TO CLIMO OR
ABOVE EACH DAY...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT
WEEK...WARMING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A DRY COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR
PREVAILS INTO WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMN IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MORE OF A SW
WIND NEAR SHORE IN SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL HOLD LESS THAN 3
FT WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AND
PLENTY OF COOL AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP TO 15-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS COOLER AIR BLOWS
OVER THE WARMER WATERS. WILL HOLD BACK FROM A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT AS WATERS NEAR SHORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND OFF SHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS BUT AS YOU GO JUST BEYOND 20 NM TOWARD THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
IN CAA OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A FEW 5 FTERS JUST NEAR THE 20 NM
MARK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL EQUATE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO THE 20
NM WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY...
THEN SUBSIDE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS DURING
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS EACH
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND...AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST...KEEPS RATHER UNIFORM FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES OFF THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE N/NE. THE
GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...LIGHT
SPEEDS...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL...WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT
1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE 3 FTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE 0-20NM WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL/SRP






000
FXUS62 KILM 211812
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
212 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S TOWARD 80
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING LEFT BEHIND
DEEP SW-W FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP
COLUMN VERY DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. OVERALL EXPECT A CLOUDLESS SKY
INTO THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO OR CLOSE TO 80 MOST
PLACES.

MID TO UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID
IN KEEPING A VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP.
A FEW CLOUDS MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN
IMPACTS OF THE FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER.
CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE 40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND
CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A DRY COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR
PREVAILS INTO WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH
THE COLUMN IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH
MORE OF A SW WIND NEAR SHORE IN SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL
HOLD LESS THAN 3 FT WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AND
PLENTY OF COOL AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP TO 15-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS COOLER AIR BLOWS
OVER THE WARMER WATERS. WILL HOLD BACK FROM A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT AS WATERS NEAR SHORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND OFF SHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS BUT AS YOU GO JUST BEYOND 20 NM TOWARD THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
IN CAA OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A FEW 5 FTERS JUST NEAR THE 20 NM
MARK.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 211730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
130 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 130PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT
HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG







000
FXUS62 KRAH 211712
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STEADY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 70S NORTH...AND MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED
(AS PER 12Z GSO SOUNDING)...ENOUGH LIFT GENERATED BY THE FRONT AND
ATTENDANT S/W MAY CAUSE A STRAY SHOWER OR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BLUSTERY AT TIMES AS LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. MIN TEMPS MID 40S WEST TO UPEPR 40S
EAST-SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS
VEERING FROM THE WEST-SW TO THE N-NW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 8-12KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A LOW END VFR CEILING 3500-5000FT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND
KRWI. ENOUGH LIFT MAY OCCUR TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT A SHOWER WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF A TERMINAL IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE AERODROME FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR AFTER 04Z.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BLUSTERY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTS 18-23KTS
HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS
3500-5000FT IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT MORE SO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 211601
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211601
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211601
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211601
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG






000
FXUS62 KRAH 211458
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STEADY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 70S NORTH...AND MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED
(AS PER 12Z GSO SOUNDING)...ENOUGH LIFT GENERATED BY THE FRONT AND
ATTENDANT S/W MAY CAUSE A STRAY SHOWER OR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BLUSTERY AT TIMES AS LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. MIN TEMPS MID 40S WEST TO UPEPR 40S
EAST-SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...

A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14
KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-15
THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT KRWI
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE ON THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 211421
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXITING SHORTWAVE LEAVING BEHIND DEEP SW-W
FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN VERY
DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WARMING THROUGH TODAY COMBINED WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 80S MOST PLACES.

PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID IN KEEPING A
VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP. A FEW CLOUDS
MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE
FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP
COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER. CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE
40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND WAVES AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 211421
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXITING SHORTWAVE LEAVING BEHIND DEEP SW-W
FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN VERY
DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WARMING THROUGH TODAY COMBINED WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 80S MOST PLACES.

PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID IN KEEPING A
VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP. A FEW CLOUDS
MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE
FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP
COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER. CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE
40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND WAVES AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211411
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...SHOWER THREAT ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAS
ENDED FOR THE DAY AS DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS
EASTERN NC. WITH FULL INSOLATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT COULD SEE SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU
THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO
NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG







000
FXUS62 KRAH 211146
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...

A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14
KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-15
THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT KRWI
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE ON THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211146
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...

A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14
KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-15
THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT KRWI
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE ON THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211146
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...

A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14
KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-15
THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT KRWI
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE ON THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KILM 211140
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 211140
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 211140
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KILM 211140
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211122
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
722 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE
SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AND
BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211122
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
722 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE
SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AND
BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211122
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
722 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE
SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AND
BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK





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