000
FXUS62 KILM 191913
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THROUGH MIDDLE EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS OUR ZONES WEST OF I-95
WHERE ONE IMPULSE ALOFT EVIDENT IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS MOVING EAST OVER
CENTRAL SC...WILL SERVE AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTION BY PROVIDING
UPPER SUPPORT THROUGH THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING.
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE THE RAIN MAKERS GENERALLY SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD NUDGE. THE EASTERN 1/3 OF OUR ZONES
HAVE BECOME MORE STABILIZED BY THE DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A LESS BUOYANT LOW-LEVEL MARINE LAYER...SO
HIGHEST POPS TO PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT PERIOD.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NNE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF A MID
LEVEL TROUGH...SHIFTING CONVECTIVE FOCUS GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT. THINK DIURNAL SURFACE COOLING AFTER EVENING MAY
DECREASE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVERALL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE UPPER
SUPPORT AND PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES INTO THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE COASTAL ZONES
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY....STORM MOTION WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO EAST
TRAJECTORY...WITH BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE COAST.
TIMING OF QPF FIELDS BRINGS THE BEST RAINFALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OUR
COASTAL LOCATIONS MAINLY JUST AFTER 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS AND THE
TIMING THEREOF AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST DAY...MONDAY. THE MID
LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA REGION WITH A BROAD
WEAKNESS ALONG THE EAST COAST AT LEAST FROM FLORIDA NORTH TO THE
DELMARVA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING NEAR ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE FORCING
WILL BASICALLY CONSIST OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING...A BROAD
DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE 700-300MB LAYER...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
VIA THE SEA BREEZE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS.

INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WEST
OF OUR AREA AND THE DEFORMATION. THESE APPEAR TO BE THE PRODUCT OF
THIS BROAD ZONE. HOWEVER THIS AREA OF FORCING...WHILE STILL PRESENT
IN A WEAKER STATE MONDAY AND OVER OUR AREA...MOVES LITTLE AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE AS MUCH ORGANIZED CONFECTION...MORESO OF WHAT WE ARE
SEEING TODAY. MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY WITH PW
VALUES DROPPING SOMEWHAT AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN LOWER POP VALUES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT I FOLLOWED A
CONSISTENT TREND OF LOWER VALUES MET NUMBERS MONDAY VIA HIGHER POPS
AND WARMER NUMBERS TUESDAY...MAV NUMBERS.



&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY WITH THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AS WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE HOLD ON. THE LATTER WILL BE WEAKENING HOWEVER AND LARGE
SCALE WEAK FORCING MAY KICK IN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION BORNE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ESPECIALLY WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO...YIELDING EXTRA INSTABILITY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE WITH UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT BOTH IMPINGING UPON THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE SPEED AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ENSUING COOLER/DRIER AIR IS NOT AGREED
UPON BY MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED 00Z EC SEEMS
AT ODDS WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS/GEM. THE QUICKER SOLUTIONS OF
CONTINUITY HAVE BEEN PRESERVED...IMPLYING THAT SOME CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR WILL WORKING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE
THE PATTERN OF REDEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION DURING THE TAF PERIOD
AS WE HAVE SEEN DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.  INITIALLY...THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY WITH A SHIFT EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.  THE EXACT TIMING THAT EACH TERMINAL WILL BE AFFECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS SOMEWHAT UP TO CHANCE SO PILOTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO DEAL WITH THE ATTENDANT MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT ALMOST ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  OUTSIDE CONVECTION
EXPECT S WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE
NEARER THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH
THEY HAVE BEEN A BIT LIGHTER THAN FORECAST...ASIDE FROM LOCAL
GUSTY INSHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. THUS THINK SEAS
WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN A 2-3 FOOT RANGE MOST WATERS...POSSIBLY
NEAR 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WHERE PERSISTENCE
OF SSE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS PF 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE...WILL
BE MADE UP OF 2-3 FOOT SSE WAVES EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...AND 1-2 FOOT
ESE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO GET A
RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT SINCE A FEW STRONG TSTMS COULD DOT
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH IF ANYTHING...A SLIGHT TURN IN THE WINDS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN STRAIGHT SOUTHERLY
MONDAY. OVERALL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SUMMERTIME SPEEDS IN A
10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL ALSO DISPLAY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
VARIABILITY WITH 2-4 FEET AS PERIODS REMAIN DOMINATED BY WIND WAVES.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE MAIN PLAYER AT LEAST INITIALLY.
THE INCREASED DURATION OF FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LONGER PERIOD
SWELL ENERGY TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS A
RESULT THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL WAVE PERIOD WHILE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IS ON THE RISE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SCEC-WORTHY 5 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER EDGES OF THE FCST ZONES BY
THURSDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY COULD VEER THE WIND
SLIGHTLY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE COMING THROUGH AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT A SLOWER SOLUTION SEEMS LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RAN

000
FXUS62 KRAH 191904
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT...AND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

OVERVIEW:
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT...AND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCES ROTATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH WEAK/SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS THREAT OF SHOWERS WITHIN AN AXIS OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS (PWATS 1.6-1.8")POOLING ATOP THE AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT:
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY...AND HAS LARGELY CONVECTIVELY
STABILIZED THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.  AS SUCH...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE FROM TRAINING SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HI-RES CAM MODELS SHOW A RAPID DROP OFF IN COVERAGE AS BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:
MUCH OF THE SAME ON MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
AND BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLY START OF CONVECTION WILL CURB
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...BUT LIKE TODAY EXPECT A DIURNAL
FLAREUP WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF TRAINING STORM AND ASSOCIATED
MINOR FLOODING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND RADAR COVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. MORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE (CAUSING ALL OF THE RAIN TODAY AND MONDAY)
WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST...AS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE SUPPRESSED DUE TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OF THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL START TO
RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALL OF THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO AN
EVEN FURTHER DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH
PWAT VALUES HOVERING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR SO. THEREFORE...AM STILL
EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
(MAINLY DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES) WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT OVERALL THE TREND HAS BEEN WITH A QUICKER
PASSAGE. IN FACT...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY...ALMOST 12-18
HOURS EARLIER THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW POPS HIGHEST POPS CONCENTRATED DURING THE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THEN DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS OF NOW...IT NOW APPEARS THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND (GENERALLY IN THE 70S).



&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES....WITH PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
RE-DEVELOPING.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LIFR TO IFR MORNING CIGS...
 BECOMING VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST POPS/GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 191835
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THE FAR WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS THUS FAR
TODAY. SHEAR IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS MODERATE SO THINK THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE VERY WET AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
PROJECTED STORM MOTIONS OF ONLY AROUND 8 KNOTS. POPS WILL BE IN
THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR
MAY AS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AREA-
WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY AND COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A RATHER WET DAY ON
MONDAY. POPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY AREA-WIDE WITH
QPF TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BUT LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER GIVEN
SLOW STORM MOTIONS GIVEN A VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS ANY BRIEF SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 154 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SO WILL HAVE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH INCREASING POPS STARTING
THURSDAY. MODELS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD DRYING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AS
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THUS
FAR. THINK KOAJ AND KISO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT MVFR AND
PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALL HINTS AT A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL PROJECT THAT IN THE NEW TAF CYCLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE FORECAST AS
WINDS REMAIN LOCKED IN THE SE/S DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF GENERALLY
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
2 TO 4 FEET OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PER LATEST WAVEWATCH. WINDS AND SEAS MAY
INCREASE BRIEFLY IN CONVECTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 201 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK TO KEEP
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC

000
FXUS62 KRAH 191806
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT...AND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1019 AM SUNDAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT...AND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCES ROTATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS THREAT OF SHOWERS WITHIN AN AXIS OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS (PWATS 1.6-1.8")POOLING ATOP THE AREA.

WHILE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MODULATE DAYTIME HEATING...WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...AND WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL FLAREUPS IN CONVECTION. WEAK
SHEAR OF 15 KTS OF LESS WILL YIELD A LOW-END/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER... CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. THE HEAVY
RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL BE MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOOK FOR THE HIGHEST POPS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND NORTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON TIMING OF CONVECTION WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT
STILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES... AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE ORDER OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH NOTABLE DRYING IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CAN AGAIN OCCUR... ESPECIALLY FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
TO THE COAST. QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 WILL BE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY 1.5
INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE TEMPERED BY THE
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WITH READINGS MOSTLY 78-84.

MORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOSTLY DISSIPATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 256 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
PWATS 1.5" OR GREATER OVER THE AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY... WITH
WEAK SHEAR... WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF GENERAL PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS... POTENTIALLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCED LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE STILL REMAINS HIGH OVER THE AREA... CONTINUING TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S... AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD... REACHING OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DIP IN TO THE REGION LATE
WEEK. THE GFS HAS REMAINED SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THE LAST FEW
RUNS... DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND MOVING IT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST... AND DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT... ENSEMBLE MEANS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY... TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES....WITH PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
RE-DEVELOPING.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LIFR TO IFR MORNING CIGS...
 BECOMING VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST POPS/GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KILM 191732
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 132 PM SUNDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOWING A MYRIAD OF UPPER
IMPULSES CURRENTLY DROPPING SLOWLY ESE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COOL POOL APPROACHING THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND MAY HEATING WAS ALLOWING
RESPONSIVE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING VERY QUICKLY. ONE IMPULSE APPEARS POISED TO INCREASE
CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES INTO THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON WHILE
ACTIVITY OVER OUR NE NC ZONES LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
IMPULSE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE CONVECTION
ENTERING OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
ITS MOVEMENT AND THEY MAY BE STRONGER AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM
DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING AND 700 MB TEMPS COOL A DEGREE OR TWO.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POP VALUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AS THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT
IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COMBINATION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC REGIME
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT IN PLACE
OFFSHORE...PUMPING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO...ITS ALSO A SETUP THAT
FEATURES DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT...EXCEPT
THAT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN "TYPICAL" DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WILL ENHANCE LAPSE RATES...WHILE MODERATE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPULSE WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT. WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE 1000 -
2000 J/KG...EVEN WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER CONVECTION SHOULD TRIGGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTN ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LINGER MANY HOURS AFTER NIGHTFALL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TAP REMNANT ELEVATED CAPE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
PERSIST.

WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY...THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL OUTCOMES ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. FEEL THE SLOWER GFS MAY BE
CORRECT DUE TO THE ALREADY SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...SO
ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED LIFT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THUS WILL CARRY
HIGH CHC POP TUESDAY AFTN. IF THE FASTER SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAY LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TUESDAY.

TEMPS MON/TUE WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MONDAY...AND THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE HELD UP
BY CLOUD COVER...FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BERMUDA-TYPE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL CREATE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FIRST TWO DAYS...WED/THU...ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. ATTM EXPECT THE IMPULSE TO
BE OFFSHORE...SO SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND BENEATH
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL BUMP TEMPS AND LOWER OVERALL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH THETA-E RIDGING CONTINUING AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S...TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD WED/THU...AND
FOCUSED ON THE USUAL BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH)...WILL CARRY SCHC POP ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA SINCE
IT WOULD BE SUPERFLUOUS TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPATIAL EXTENT OF
COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST...LEADING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
CROSS FRIDAY AFTN. WOULD EXPECT FROPA TO SLOW WITH LATER MODEL RUNS
DUE TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND THE KNOWN MODEL BIAS TO
BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY. WILL CONTINUE INHERITED LOW-CHC POP
FRIDAY AND SCHC SATURDAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE
THE PATTERN OF REDEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION DURING THE TAF PERIOD
AS WE HAVE SEEN DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.  INITIALLY...THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY WITH A SHIFT EAST AND NORTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.  THE EXACT TIMING THAT EACH TERMINAL WILL BE AFFECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS SOMEWHAT UP TO CHANCE SO PILOTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO DEAL WITH THE ATTENDANT MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT ALMOST ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  OUTSIDE CONVECTION
EXPECT S WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE
NEARER THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 132 PM SUNDAY...SEAS AROUND 2 FEET WILL BUILD TO 3 FT AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT OUT 20 MILES BY THIS EVENING...AS PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PREVAIL AND INCREASE A BIT
THROUGH AFTERNOON. SPECTRAL WAVE DATA FROM THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY IS EMBODIED IN A
9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
4-5 SECOND SOUTH WIND WAVES BUILD ON TOP. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED
BUT MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR FIX BEFORE HEADING OUT...AS TSTMS
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE VARIABILITY IN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS ITS
CONTROL OVER THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF AS
PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION DURING
THE PERIOD. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A SOUTHERLY 5 SEC WIND
CHOP OF 3-4 FT...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS BERMUDA HIGH HAS ALLOWED A
2FT/10SEC SE SWELL TO DEVELOP IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM AS WELL. THESE
TWO WAVE GROUPS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE 2-4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN
ITS POSITION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...KEEPING S/SW RETURN FLOW ONGOING
ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. WHILE A WEAK SE SWELL WILL BE
EVIDENT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM THROUGH MID-WEEK...IT WILL FEATURE
A SLOWLY DECAYING AMPLITUDE...ALLOWING SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND-WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A SHORTER AVERAGE PERIOD. AS THE SWELL DECAYS...3-6
FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES BECOME DOMINANT...AND THESE SHORTER PERIODS
HELP WAVE AMPLITUDES GROW WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
OF 2-4 FT WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN/MJC

000
FXUS62 KMHX 191651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE.
AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS LOOKS LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR AWHILE AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. THINK
THE REST OF THE AREA MAY SEE A LULL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER IN THESE AREAS.
WITH NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...HAD ALREADY RAISED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND THIS STILL LOOKS
GOOD. PARAMETERS FROM MORNING SOUNDING DID SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH LI VALUES PROJECTED AROUND -5 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ABOUT 1400 J/KG CAPE. SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...SO THINK
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ENHANCED BY
THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING OVERALL AMS MOISTURE WITH
PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR 60S UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS.
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT...THOUGH
AT THIS TIME THINK BIGGEST THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING
TUESDAY. EXPECT SEABREEZE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND WARM...THOUGH
MODELS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIP INLAND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM NATURE WITH MUCH COOLER AIR DIGGING
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT WITH N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AS
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THUS
FAR. THINK KOAJ AND KISO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT MVFR AND
PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALL HINTS AT A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL PROJECT THAT IN THE NEW TAF CYCLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUE...WITH
BEST CHANCES MON. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MID TO LATE WEEK. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...MADE ALMOST NO CHANGES TO CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST AS SE/S WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
S/SSW FLOW 10-20KT PERSISTING AND SEAS REMAINING 2-5FT. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT DUE TO
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KILM 191609
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1209 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1208 PM SUNDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOWING A MYRIAD OF UPPER
IMPULSES CURRENTLY DROPPING SLOWLY ESE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COOL POOL APPROACHING THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND MAY HEATING WAS ALLOWING
RESPONSIVE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING VERY QUICKLY. ONE IMPULSE APPEARS POISED TO INCREASE
CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES INTO THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON WHILE
ACTIVITY OVER OUR NE NC ZONES LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
IMPULSE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE CONVECTION
ENTERING OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
ITS MOVEMENT AND THEY MAY BE STRONGER AS WE APPROACH MAXIMUM
DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING AND 700 MB TEMPS COOL A DEGREE OR TWO.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POP VALUES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AS THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT
IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COMBINATION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC REGIME
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT IN PLACE
OFFSHORE...PUMPING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO...ITS ALSO A SETUP THAT
FEATURES DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT...EXCEPT
THAT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN "TYPICAL" DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WILL ENHANCE LAPSE RATES...WHILE MODERATE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPULSE WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT. WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE 1000 -
2000 J/KG...EVEN WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER CONVECTION SHOULD TRIGGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTN ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LINGER MANY HOURS AFTER NIGHTFALL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TAP REMNANT ELEVATED CAPE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
PERSIST.

WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY...THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL OUTCOMES ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. FEEL THE SLOWER GFS MAY BE
CORRECT DUE TO THE ALREADY SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...SO
ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED LIFT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THUS WILL CARRY
HIGH CHC POP TUESDAY AFTN. IF THE FASTER SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAY LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TUESDAY.

TEMPS MON/TUE WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MONDAY...AND THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE HELD UP
BY CLOUD COVER...FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BERMUDA-TYPE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL CREATE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FIRST TWO DAYS...WED/THU...ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. ATTM EXPECT THE IMPULSE TO
BE OFFSHORE...SO SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND BENEATH
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL BUMP TEMPS AND LOWER OVERALL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH THETA-E RIDGING CONTINUING AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S...TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD WED/THU...AND
FOCUSED ON THE USUAL BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH)...WILL CARRY SCHC POP ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA SINCE
IT WOULD BE SUPERFLUOUS TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPATIAL EXTENT OF
COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST...LEADING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
CROSS FRIDAY AFTN. WOULD EXPECT FROPA TO SLOW WITH LATER MODEL RUNS
DUE TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND THE KNOWN MODEL BIAS TO
BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY. WILL CONTINUE INHERITED LOW-CHC POP
FRIDAY AND SCHC SATURDAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 16Z...THE ATMOSPHERE IS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF INLAND
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE REDUCED
VSBY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE COAST. OTHERWISE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 11-16 KT DURING THE DAY...HIGHEST COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1208 PM SUNDAY...SEAS AROUND 2 FEET WILL BUILD TO 3 FT AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT OUT 20 MILES BY THIS EVENING...AS PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PREVAIL AND INCREASE A BIT
THROUGH AFTERNOON. SPECTRAL WAVE DATA FROM THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY IS EMBODIED IN A
9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
4-5 SECOND SOUTH WIND WAVES BUILD ON TOP. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED
BUT MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR FIX BEFORE HEADING OUT...AS TSTMS
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE VARIABILITY IN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS ITS
CONTROL OVER THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF AS
PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION DURING
THE PERIOD. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A SOUTHERLY 5 SEC WIND
CHOP OF 3-4 FT...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS BERMUDA HIGH HAS ALLOWED A
2FT/10SEC SE SWELL TO DEVELOP IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM AS WELL. THESE
TWO WAVE GROUPS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE 2-4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN
ITS POSITION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...KEEPING S/SW RETURN FLOW ONGOING
ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. WHILE A WEAK SE SWELL WILL BE
EVIDENT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM THROUGH MID-WEEK...IT WILL FEATURE
A SLOWLY DECAYING AMPLITUDE...ALLOWING SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND-WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A SHORTER AVERAGE PERIOD. AS THE SWELL DECAYS...3-6
FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES BECOME DOMINANT...AND THESE SHORTER PERIODS
HELP WAVE AMPLITUDES GROW WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
OF 2-4 FT WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN

000
FXUS62 KRAH 191419
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1019 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT...AND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1019 AM SUNDAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT...AND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE VORT DISTURBANCES ROTATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS THREAT OF SHOWERS WITHIN AN AXIS OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS (PWATS 1.6-1.8")POOLING ATOP THE AREA.

WHILE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MODULATE DAYTIME HEATING...WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...AND WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL FLAREUPS IN CONVECTION. WEAK
SHEAR OF 15 KTS OF LESS WILL YIELD A LOW-END/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER... CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. THE HEAVY
RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL BE MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOOK FOR THE HIGHEST POPS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND NORTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON TIMING OF CONVECTION WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT
STILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES... AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE ORDER OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH NOTABLE DRYING IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CAN AGAIN OCCUR... ESPECIALLY FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
TO THE COAST. QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 WILL BE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY 1.5
INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE TEMPERED BY THE
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WITH READINGS MOSTLY 78-84.

MORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOSTLY DISSIPATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 256 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
PWATS 1.5" OR GREATER OVER THE AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY... WITH
WEAK SHEAR... WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF GENERAL PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS... POTENTIALLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCED LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE STILL REMAINS HIGH OVER THE AREA... CONTINUING TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S... AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD... REACHING OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DIP IN TO THE REGION LATE
WEEK. THE GFS HAS REMAINED SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THE LAST FEW
RUNS... DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND MOVING IT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST... AND DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT... ENSEMBLE MEANS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY... TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM SUNDAY...

IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...EASTERN TERMINALS
(KFAY AND KRWI) SHOULD HOLD AT VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A THREAT
OF THUNDER AT ALL TAF SITES....WITH PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LIFR TO IFR MORNING CIGS...
BECOMING MVFR DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING
STRATUS... FOG... IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL/STRICKLER

000
FXUS62 KILM 191341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
941 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SUNDAY...CURRENT CONVECTION IS GETTING FAVORABLE
ASSISTANCE FROM SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AS EVIDENCED IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL NC/SC BORDER WITH ANOTHER WEAKER FEATURE
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR MOVING EAST. VERY GRADUALLY WE SHOULD SEE
ACTIVITY OVER THE OCEAN AND IMMEDIATE COAST WEAKEN...WHILE INLAND
WE SHOULD EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY SUPPORTED BY
THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COOL POOL MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
PRESENTLY.

THE WEAK AND BAGGY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL HELP BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALMOST A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.60 INCHES AND 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND +12C...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO IGNITE PLENTY
OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN NO CAPPING INVERSION
ALOFT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
INLAND FROM THE COAST FOLLOWING THE BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE UPPER TROUGH. ONCE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION CRANKS
UP...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE AIR FROM THE NEARSHORE OCEAN WATERS
SHOULD CREATE A MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOW INSUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OR WIND
SPEEDS FOR STORM CELL ORGANIZATION. SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL HOWEVER. SINCE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING BUT WILL NOT END COMPLETELY AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE REMAINS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COMBINATION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC REGIME
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT IN PLACE
OFFSHORE...PUMPING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO...ITS ALSO A SETUP THAT
FEATURES DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT...EXCEPT
THAT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN "TYPICAL" DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WILL ENHANCE LAPSE RATES...WHILE MODERATE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPULSE WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT. WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE 1000 -
2000 J/KG...EVEN WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER CONVECTION SHOULD TRIGGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTN ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LINGER MANY HOURS AFTER NIGHTFALL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TAP REMNANT ELEVATED CAPE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
PERSIST.

WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY...THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL OUTCOMES ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. FEEL THE SLOWER GFS MAY BE
CORRECT DUE TO THE ALREADY SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...SO
ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED LIFT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THUS WILL CARRY
HIGH CHC POP TUESDAY AFTN. IF THE FASTER SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAY LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TUESDAY.

TEMPS MON/TUE WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MONDAY...AND THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE HELD UP
BY CLOUD COVER...FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BERMUDA-TYPE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL CREATE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FIRST TWO DAYS...WED/THU...ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. ATTM EXPECT THE IMPULSE TO
BE OFFSHORE...SO SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND BENEATH
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL BUMP TEMPS AND LOWER OVERALL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH THETA-E RIDGING CONTINUING AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S...TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD WED/THU...AND
FOCUSED ON THE USUAL BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH)...WILL CARRY SCHC POP ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA SINCE
IT WOULD BE SUPERFLUOUS TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPATIAL EXTENT OF
COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST...LEADING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
CROSS FRIDAY AFTN. WOULD EXPECT FROPA TO SLOW WITH LATER MODEL RUNS
DUE TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND THE KNOWN MODEL BIAS TO
BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY. WILL CONTINUE INHERITED LOW-CHC POP
FRIDAY AND SCHC SATURDAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT FLO/LBT WITHIN A BAND OF THICKER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
OVER FROM SATURDAY`S INLAND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PLENTY OF BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BECOME ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF INLAND
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE REDUCED
VSBY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE COAST ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IF
ANYTHING AFFECTS THE ILM/CRE/MYR IT COULD BE A LATE MORNING EVENT
RATHER THAN AFTERNOON LIKE FARTHER INLAND. OTHERWISE GENERALLY SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM ITS CENTER OVER NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA...AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WILL BOTH MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS... WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO SINKING AIR BEHIND THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE FRONT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE INTERIOR
CAROLINAS.

SEAS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 2 FEET...BUT MAY BUILD TO 3 AND EVEN 4 FT
OUT AT 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE BY THIS EVENING...ALL DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SPECTRAL WAVE
DATA FROM THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE WAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY IS EMBODIED IN A 9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE 4-5 SECOND SOUTH WIND WAVES BUILD
ON TOP.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE VARIABILITY IN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS ITS
CONTROL OVER THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF AS
PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION DURING
THE PERIOD. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A SOUTHERLY 5 SEC WIND
CHOP OF 3-4 FT...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS BERMUDA HIGH HAS ALLOWED A
2FT/10SEC SE SWELL TO DEVELOP IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM AS WELL. THESE
TWO WAVE GROUPS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE 2-4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN
ITS POSITION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...KEEPING S/SW RETURN FLOW ONGOING
ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. WHILE A WEAK SE SWELL WILL BE
EVIDENT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM THROUGH MID-WEEK...IT WILL FEATURE
A SLOWLY DECAYING AMPLITUDE...ALLOWING SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND-WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A SHORTER AVERAGE PERIOD. AS THE SWELL DECAYS...3-6
FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES BECOME DOMINANT...AND THESE SHORTER PERIODS
HELP WAVE AMPLITUDES GROW WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
OF 2-4 FT WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA/MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA/RAN

000
FXUS62 KMHX 191332
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING REVEALS A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ERN NC. THE LATEST RAP MODEL IS A BIT OVERDONE
ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LIMITED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR THIS
MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...AND GIVEN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST STORM MOTION IS ONLY
ABOUT 8 KNOTS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN SPOTS. ALSO GIVEN THE LARGE PROJECTED CAPE VALUES...WOULD
ANTICIPATE A GOOD OF LIGHTNING WITH THE HEAVIER CELLS. WITH SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...AND WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS
ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ENHANCED BY
THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING OVERALL AMS MOISTURE WITH
PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR 60S UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS.
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT...THOUGH
AT THIS TIME THINK BIGGEST THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING
TUESDAY. EXPECT SEABREEZE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND WARM...THOUGH
MODELS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIP INLAND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM NATURE WITH MUCH COOLER AIR DIGGING
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT WITH N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...MVFR TO OCNLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPECIALLY
AT THOSE THAT THOSE TAF SITES...LIKE EWN...THAT RECEIVED RAFL
YESTERDAY THROUGH 12Z. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCT
CONVECTION MAINLY DURG THE AFTERNOON CONTG INTO THE EVE HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUE...WITH
BEST CHANCES MON. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MID TO LATE WEEK. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SSE FLOW CONTINUES ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
S/SSW FLOW 10-20KT PERSISTING AND SEAS REMAINING 2-5FT. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT DUE TO
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CTC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 191145
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY...

A DECAYING MCV WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AROUND ROXBORO
AT 145 AM. THIS MCV PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS IT TRACKED
NNE FROM THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA INDICATED A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUED WITH
SOME MODERATE RAIN STILL LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF PERSON...
ALAMANCE... ORANGE AND DURHAM COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...
WITH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE TODAY AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
SOLID SHOT AT 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN... WITH LOCALLY 2 INCHES.

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH... OVER THE
VA/NC MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING THIS LATE HOUR OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO
AIDED IN THE ESE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO OF NOTE...
CONVECTION EXTENDED BACK INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE A WEAKENING TREND FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM
AGAIN AS THE VORT MAX PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON... LASTING INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS
AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE HEATING TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 1.25 TO 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NC.
MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD RESULT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING... WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EAST. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD SEE
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MODELS INDICATE MORE LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE/SHOWERS LIMITING
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR OF 15 KTS OF LESS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER... CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LOWERING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT... BUT NOT TO
THE POINT OF A THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT. NO WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE READINGS AROUND 75 SHOULD
AGAIN PREVAIL. HIGHS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 82-83 OVER FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

OF ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD BE LOW STRATUS AND FOG... PARTICULARLY
OVER THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT
STILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES... AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE ORDER OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH NOTABLE DRYING IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CAN AGAIN OCCUR... ESPECIALLY FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
TO THE COAST. QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 WILL BE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY 1.5
INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE TEMPERED BY THE
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WITH READINGS MOSTLY 78-84.

MORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOSTLY DISSIPATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 256 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
PWATS 1.5" OR GREATER OVER THE AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY... WITH
WEAK SHEAR... WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF GENERAL PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS... POTENTIALLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCED LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE STILL REMAINS HIGH OVER THE AREA... CONTINUING TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S... AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD... REACHING OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DIP IN TO THE REGION LATE
WEEK. THE GFS HAS REMAINED SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THE LAST FEW
RUNS... DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND MOVING IT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST... AND DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT... ENSEMBLE MEANS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY... TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM SUNDAY...

IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...EASTERN TERMINALS
(KFAY AND KRWI) SHOULD HOLD AT VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A THREAT
OF THUNDER AT ALL TAF SITES....WITH PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LIFR TO IFR MORNING CIGS...
BECOMING MVFR DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING
STRATUS... FOG... IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL/STRICKLER

000
FXUS62 KILM 191028
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COMBINATION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...WILL CREATE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION THIS MORNING
SHOWS A SWIRL OF VORTICITY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND
SANDHILLS REGION OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS LIKELY WHAT HAS PRODUCED
THE EXPLOSION OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS DARLINGTON
AND FLORENCE COUNTIES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM
RADAR ARE AS HIGH AS 1.23 INCHES IN THE STAR FORK BRANCH JUST SOUTH
OF DARLINGTON RACEWAY. SIMILAR TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN DARLINGTON COUNTY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MARLBORO COUNTY.

A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SWIRL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM
MCCLELLANVILLE INTO GEORGETOWN AND ON NORTH INTO MYRTLE BEACH. POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

IT IS CURRENTLY NOT KNOWN HOW MUCH (IF ANY) SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WHAT ITS IMPACT MIGHT BE
ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FARTHER UPSTREAM THERE APPEARS TO BE ACTIVE
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE THAT
ADVECTION OF THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD BRING TOWARD THIS PART OF THE
CAROLINAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE NOT ADJUSTED
AFTERNOON POPS DOWNWARD. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS
EITHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A
WEAK AND BAGGY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
HELP BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALMOST A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.60 INCHES AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
+12C...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO IGNITE PLENTY OF
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN NO CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN INLAND FROM THE
COAST FOLLOWING THE BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH.
ONCE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION CRANKS UP...SUBSIDENCE AND
STABLE AIR FROM THE NEARSHORE OCEAN WATERS SHOULD CREATE A MINIMUM
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS LEAVES THIS MORNING FOR
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOW INSUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OR WIND
SPEEDS FOR STORM CELL ORGANIZATION. SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL HOWEVER. SINCE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING BUT WILL NOT END COMPLETELY AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE REMAINS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COMBINATION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC REGIME
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT IN PLACE
OFFSHORE...PUMPING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO...ITS ALSO A SETUP THAT
FEATURES DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT...EXCEPT
THAT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN "TYPICAL" DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WILL ENHANCE LAPSE RATES...WHILE MODERATE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPULSE WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT. WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE 1000 -
2000 J/KG...EVEN WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER CONVECTION SHOULD TRIGGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTN ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LINGER MANY HOURS AFTER NIGHTFALL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TAP REMNANT ELEVATED CAPE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
PERSIST.

WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY...THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL OUTCOMES ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. FEEL THE SLOWER GFS MAY BE
CORRECT DUE TO THE ALREADY SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...SO
ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED LIFT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THUS WILL CARRY
HIGH CHC POP TUESDAY AFTN. IF THE FASTER SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAY LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TUESDAY.

TEMPS MON/TUE WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MONDAY...AND THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE HELD UP
BY CLOUD COVER...FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BERMUDA-TYPE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL CREATE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FIRST TWO DAYS...WED/THU...ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. ATTM EXPECT THE IMPULSE TO
BE OFFSHORE...SO SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND BENEATH
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL BUMP TEMPS AND LOWER OVERALL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH THETA-E RIDGING CONTINUING AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S...TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD WED/THU...AND
FOCUSED ON THE USUAL BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH)...WILL CARRY SCHC POP ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA SINCE
IT WOULD BE SUPERFLUOUS TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPATIAL EXTENT OF
COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST...LEADING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
CROSS FRIDAY AFTN. WOULD EXPECT FROPA TO SLOW WITH LATER MODEL RUNS
DUE TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND THE KNOWN MODEL BIAS TO
BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY. WILL CONTINUE INHERITED LOW-CHC POP
FRIDAY AND SCHC SATURDAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT FLO/LBT WITHIN A BAND OF THICKER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
OVER FROM SATURDAY`S INLAND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PLENTY OF BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BECOME ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF INLAND
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE REDUCED
VSBY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE COAST ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IF
ANYTHING AFFECTS THE ILM/CRE/MYR IT COULD BE A LATE MORNING EVENT
RATHER THAN AFTERNOON LIKE FARTHER INLAND. OTHERWISE GENERALLY SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM ITS
CENTER OVER NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA
WILL BOTH MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS... WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SINKING AIR BEHIND THE
DAYTIME SEABREEZE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO DRIFT
EAST OVER THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS.

SEAS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 2 FEET...BUT MAY BUILD TO 3 AND EVEN 4 FT
OUT AT 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE BY THIS EVENING...ALL DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SPECTRAL WAVE
DATA FROM THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE WAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY IS EMBODIED IN A 9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE 4-5 SECOND SOUTH WIND WAVES BUILD
ON TOP.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE VARIABILITY IN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS ITS
CONTROL OVER THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF AS
PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION DURING
THE PERIOD. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A SOUTHERLY 5 SEC WIND
CHOP OF 3-4 FT...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS BERMUDA HIGH HAS ALLOWED A
2FT/10SEC SE SWELL TO DEVELOP IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM AS WELL. THESE
TWO WAVE GROUPS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE 2-4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN
ITS POSITION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...KEEPING S/SW RETURN FLOW ONGOING
ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. WHILE A WEAK SE SWELL WILL BE
EVIDENT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM THROUGH MID-WEEK...IT WILL FEATURE
A SLOWLY DECAYING AMPLITUDE...ALLOWING SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND-WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A SHORTER AVERAGE PERIOD. AS THE SWELL DECAYS...3-6
FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES BECOME DOMINANT...AND THESE SHORTER PERIODS
HELP WAVE AMPLITUDES GROW WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
OF 2-4 FT WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA

000
FXUS62 KMHX 191003
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
603 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...MADE MINOR TEMP AND POP CHANGES TO
INITIALIZE UPDATE OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. A WEAK MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL AMS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH A SLY FLOW AND MODELS INDICATE PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES. EVEN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDS MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT DURG MAX HTG AND LEFT
OVER TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SEABREEZE...AND WARM FRONT WILL AID
IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAFL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING OF TSTM CELLS ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE INLAND
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOWER 80S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S OBX UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ENHANCED BY
THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING OVERALL AMS MOISTURE WITH
PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR 60S UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS.
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT...THOUGH
AT THIS TIME THINK BIGGEST THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING
TUESDAY. EXPECT SEABREEZE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND WARM...THOUGH
MODELS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIP INLAND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM NATURE WITH MUCH COOLER AIR DIGGING
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT WITH N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...MVFR TO OCNLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPECIALLY
AT THOSE THAT THOSE TAF SITES...LIKE EWN...THAT RECEIVED RAFL
YESTERDAY THROUGH 12Z. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCT
CONVECTION MAINLY DURG THE AFTERNOON CONTG INTO THE EVE HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUE...WITH
BEST CHANCES MON. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MID TO LATE WEEK. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES. CURRENTLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW 10
KT OR LESS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND SEAS 2-4 FT. PRES GRAD TGTNS
SOME WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT ACRS ALL OF THE
CSTL WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 3-5 FT. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS...SEAS...AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. A SCA IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
S/SSW FLOW 10-20KT PERSISTING AND SEAS REMAINING 2-5FT. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT DUE TO
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KMHX 190734
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL AMS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH A SLY FLOW AND MODELS INDICATE PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES. EVEN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT DURG MAX HTG AND LEFT OVER
TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SEABREEZE...AND WARM FRONT WILL AID IN
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAFL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING OF TSTM CELLS ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE INLAND
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LOWER 80S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S OBX UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ENHANCED BY
THE UPR LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING OVERALL AMS MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPR 60S UNDER MOCLDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS
PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS.
ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT...THOUGH
AT THIS TIME THINK BIGGEST THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING
TUESDAY. EXPECT SEABREEZE TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND WARM...THOUGH
MODELS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIP INLAND. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
TAKING ON A MORE STRATIFORM NATURE WITH MUCH COOLER AIR DIGGING
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SAT WITH N/NE FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MVFR TO OCNLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPECIALLY
AT THOSE THAT THOSE TAF SITES...LIKE EWN...THAT RECEIVED RAFL
YESTERDAY. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCT CONVECTION
MAINLY DURG THE AFTERNOON CONTG INTO THE EVE HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUE...WITH
BEST CHANCES MON. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MID TO LATE WEEK. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND SEAS 2-4 FT. PRES GRAD TGTNS SOME WITH
SLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT ACRS ALL OF THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 3-5 FT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. A SCA IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
S/SSW FLOW 10-20KT PERSISTING AND SEAS REMAINING 2-5FT. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT DUE TO
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KILM 190724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COMBINATION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT...WILL CREATE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A SOUTH
WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK AND BAGGY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL HELP BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALMOST A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.60 INCHES
AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +12C...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO
IGNITE PLENTY OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN NO CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN INLAND FROM THE COAST FOLLOWING THE BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH. ONCE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION
CRANKS UP...SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE AIR FROM THE NEARSHORE OCEAN
WATERS SHOULD CREATE A MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE
COAST. THIS LEAVES THIS MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOW INSUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OR WIND
SPEEDS FOR STORM CELL ORGANIZATION. SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL HOWEVER. SINCE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING BUT WILL NOT END COMPLETELY AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THE
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE REMAINS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COMBINATION OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC REGIME
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT IN PLACE
OFFSHORE...PUMPING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO...ITS ALSO A SETUP THAT
FEATURES DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS CASE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT...EXCEPT
THAT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN "TYPICAL" DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WILL ENHANCE LAPSE RATES...WHILE MODERATE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPULSE WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT. WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE 1000 -
2000 J/KG...EVEN WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER CONVECTION SHOULD TRIGGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTN ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LINGER MANY HOURS AFTER NIGHTFALL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TAP REMNANT ELEVATED CAPE ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
PERSIST.

WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY...THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL OUTCOMES ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. FEEL THE SLOWER GFS MAY BE
CORRECT DUE TO THE ALREADY SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...SO
ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED LIFT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THUS WILL CARRY
HIGH CHC POP TUESDAY AFTN. IF THE FASTER SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAY LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TUESDAY.

TEMPS MON/TUE WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MONDAY...AND THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE HELD UP
BY CLOUD COVER...FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND BERMUDA-TYPE
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL CREATE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FIRST TWO DAYS...WED/THU...ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. ATTM EXPECT THE IMPULSE TO
BE OFFSHORE...SO SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND BENEATH
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL BUMP TEMPS AND LOWER OVERALL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH THETA-E RIDGING CONTINUING AND
TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 80S...TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD WED/THU...AND
FOCUSED ON THE USUAL BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH)...WILL CARRY SCHC POP ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA SINCE
IT WOULD BE SUPERFLUOUS TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN SPATIAL EXTENT OF
COVERAGE THIS FAR OUT.

LATE IN THE WEEK...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST...LEADING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
CROSS FRIDAY AFTN. WOULD EXPECT FROPA TO SLOW WITH LATER MODEL RUNS
DUE TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND THE KNOWN MODEL BIAS TO
BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY. WILL CONTINUE INHERITED LOW-CHC POP
FRIDAY AND SCHC SATURDAY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT FLO/LBT WITHIN A BAND OF THICKER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
OVER FROM SATURDAY`S INLAND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PLENTY OF BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BECOME ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF INLAND
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE REDUCED
VSBY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE COAST ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IF
ANYTHING AFFECTS THE ILM/CRE/MYR IT COULD BE A LATE MORNING EVENT
RATHER THAN AFTERNOON LIKE FARTHER INLAND. OTHERWISE GENERALLY SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM ITS CENTER OVER NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA...AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WILL BOTH MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...
WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING MAY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SINKING AIR
BEHIND THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS.

SEAS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 2 FEET...BUT MAY BUILD TO 3 AND EVEN 4 FT
OUT AT 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE BY THIS EVENING...ALL DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SPECTRAL WAVE
DATA FROM THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE WAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY IS EMBODIED IN A 9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE 4-5 SECOND SOUTH WIND WAVES BUILD
ON TOP.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LITTLE VARIABILITY IN MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETAINS ITS
CONTROL OVER THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF AS
PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION DURING
THE PERIOD. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A SOUTHERLY 5 SEC WIND
CHOP OF 3-4 FT...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS BERMUDA HIGH HAS ALLOWED A
2FT/10SEC SE SWELL TO DEVELOP IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM AS WELL. THESE
TWO WAVE GROUPS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE 2-4 FT SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN
ITS POSITION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...KEEPING S/SW RETURN FLOW ONGOING
ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. WHILE A WEAK SE SWELL WILL BE
EVIDENT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM THROUGH MID-WEEK...IT WILL FEATURE
A SLOWLY DECAYING AMPLITUDE...ALLOWING SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND-WAVE
DOMINATED WITH A SHORTER AVERAGE PERIOD. AS THE SWELL DECAYS...3-6
FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES BECOME DOMINANT...AND THESE SHORTER PERIODS
HELP WAVE AMPLITUDES GROW WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
OF 2-4 FT WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW

000
FXUS62 KRAH 190658
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY...

A DECAYING MCV WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AROUND ROXBORO
AT 145 AM. THIS MCV PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS IT TRACKED
NNE FROM THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA INDICATED A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUED WITH
SOME MODERATE RAIN STILL LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF PERSON...
ALAMANCE... ORANGE AND DURHAM COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...
WITH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE TODAY AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
SOLID SHOT AT 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN... WITH LOCALLY 2 INCHES.

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH... OVER THE
VA/NC MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING THIS LATE HOUR OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO
AIDED IN THE ESE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO OF NOTE...
CONVECTION EXTENDED BACK INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE A WEAKENING TREND FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM
AGAIN AS THE VORT MAX PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON... LASTING INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS
AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE HEATING TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 1.25 TO 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NC.
MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD RESULT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING... WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EAST. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD SEE
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MODELS INDICATE MORE LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE/SHOWERS LIMITING
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR OF 15 KTS OF LESS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER... CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LOWERING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT... BUT NOT TO
THE POINT OF A THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT. NO WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE READINGS AROUND 75 SHOULD
AGAIN PREVAIL. HIGHS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 82-83 OVER FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

OF ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD BE LOW STRATUS AND FOG... PARTICULARLY
OVER THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT
STILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES... AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE ORDER OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH NOTABLE DRYING IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CAN AGAIN OCCUR... ESPECIALLY FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
TO THE COAST. QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 WILL BE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY 1.5
INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE TEMPERED BY THE
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WITH READINGS MOSTLY 78-84.

MORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOSTLY DISSIPATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 256 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
PWATS 1.5" OR GREATER OVER THE AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY... WITH
WEAK SHEAR... WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF GENERAL PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS... POTENTIALLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCED LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE STILL REMAINS HIGH OVER THE AREA... CONTINUING TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S... AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD... REACHING OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DIP IN TO THE REGION LATE
WEEK. THE GFS HAS REMAINED SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THE LAST FEW
RUNS... DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND MOVING IT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST... AND DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT... ENSEMBLE MEANS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY... TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY...

IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE EXCEPT MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AROUND KFAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST THIS MORNING... THEN AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.. OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO LIFR
IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LIFR TO IFR MORNING CIGS...
BECOMING MVFR DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING
STRATUS... FOG... IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS/BADGETT

000
FXUS62 KRAH 190635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY...

A DECAYING MCV WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AROUND ROXBORO
AT 145 AM. THIS MCV PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS IT TRACKED
NNE FROM THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA INDICATED A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUED WITH
SOME MODERATE RAIN STILL LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF PERSON...
ALAMANCE... ORANGE AND DURHAM COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...
WITH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE TODAY AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
SOLID SHOT AT 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN... WITH LOCALLY 2 INCHES.

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH... OVER THE
VA/NC MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING THIS LATE HOUR OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO
AIDED IN THE ESE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO OF NOTE...
CONVECTION EXTENDED BACK INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE A WEAKENING TREND FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM
AGAIN AS THE VORT MAX PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON... LASTING INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS
AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE HEATING TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 1.25 TO 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NC.
MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD RESULT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING... WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EAST. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD SEE
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MODELS INDICATE MORE LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE/SHOWERS LIMITING
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR OF 15 KTS OF LESS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER... CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LOWERING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT... BUT NOT TO
THE POINT OF A THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT. NO WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE READINGS AROUND 75 SHOULD
AGAIN PREVAIL. HIGHS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 82-83 OVER FROM
FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

OF ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD BE LOW STRATUS AND FOG... PARTICULARLY
OVER THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ZONES IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT
STILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES... AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE ORDER OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH NOTABLE DRYING IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CAN AGAIN OCCUR... ESPECIALLY FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
TO THE COAST. QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 WILL BE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY 1.5
INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE TEMPERED BY THE
CLOUDS/MOISTURE WITH READINGS MOSTLY 78-84.

MORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOSTLY DISSIPATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
START TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALL OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
DRYING...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR SO.
THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH AN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
(BUT WILL STILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS
REACHED)...WITH POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY...

IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE EXCEPT MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AROUND KFAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST THIS MORNING... THEN AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.. OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO LIFR
IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LIFR TO IFR MORNING CIGS...
BECOMING MVFR DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING
STRATUS... FOG... IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS/BADGETT

000
FXUS62 KRAH 190608
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY...

A DECAYING MCV WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AROUND ROXBORO
AT 145 AM. THIS MCV PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS IT TRACKED
NNE FROM THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA INDICATED A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUED WITH
SOME MODERATE RAIN STILL LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF PERSON...
ALAMANCE... ORANGE AND DURHAM COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...
WITH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE TODAY AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
SOLID SHOT AT 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN... WITH LOCALLY 2 INCHES.

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH... OVER THE
VA/NC MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING THIS LATE HOUR OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO
AIDED IN THE ESE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO OF NOTE...
CONVECTION EXTENDED BACK INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THERE MAY BE A WEAKENING TREND FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM
AGAIN AS THE VORT MAX PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON... LASTING INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS
AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE HEATING TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 1.25 TO 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NC.
MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD RESULT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING... WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EAST. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD SEE
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MODELS INDICATE MORE LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE/SHOWERS LIMITING
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR OF 15 KTS OF LESS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER... CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LOWERING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT... BUT NOT TO
THE POINT OF A THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT. NO WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE READINGS AROUND 70 SHOULD
AGAIN PREVAIL. HIGHS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 80 OVER FROM FAYETTEVILLE
TO GOLDSBORO BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 1.75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY...SOME MINOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN
AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT...WITH GENERALLY LOWER 80S
EXPECTED.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
START TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALL OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
DRYING...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR SO.
THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH AN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
(BUT WILL STILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS
REACHED)...WITH POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY...

IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE EXCEPT MVFR TO VFR
CIGS AROUND KFAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST THIS MORNING... THEN AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.. OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO LIFR
IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LIFR TO IFR MORNING CIGS...
BECOMING MVFR DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING
STRATUS... FOG... IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS/BADGETT

000
FXUS62 KMHX 190508
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
108 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND..

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...TWEAKED INITIAL TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. ALSO...LOWERED POPS TO SLGT CHC SHRA ALL BUT EXTREME ERN
AREAS WITH OFFSHORE SCT CONVECTION WHICH MAY WORK NWD ACRS THE ERN
PAMLICO SOUND AND SERN OBX AREAS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT. FRONT THAT WAS
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WET LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM SAT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOIST AIR TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY INCREASING SO WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACHES 2 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING ON
TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TAKING ON A
MORE STRATIFORM CHARACTER WITH MUCH COOLER AIR PLUNGING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT RECEIVED RAFL YESTERDAY. OTRW VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCT CONVECTION MAINLY DURG THE
AFTERNOON CONTG INTO THE EVE HOURS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER TAF
SITES. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDER. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...CURRENTLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA WITH 10-15 KT WS FROM OREGON INLET N...AND 10 KT OR
LESS SOUTH.

CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED WIND AND SEAS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SSW FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BORDERLINE SCA
SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT JUST
BELOW PER LATEST WAVE MODELS. LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/CTC/HSA
MARINE...CGG/JAC/CTC/HSA

000
FXUS62 KILM 190322
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1122 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH DAY AND NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR MIDDLE MAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK...BRINGING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...1 ACROSS THE
WESTERN ILM CWA...AND THE OTHER JUST NORTH OF THE ILM CWA...WILL
BOTH CONTINUE THE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING TREND AS NOTED BY THE KLTX
AND SURROUNDING 88DS. A SFC BASED MARINE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE FA WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT...MEANING THE DEPTH OF THIS AIR
MASS TRANSPORTED INLAND BY THE SEA BREEZE WILL DECREASE. PCPN
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE ILM CWA HAS REMAINED STEADY OR HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THIS PCPN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AIDED BY
FORCING/DYNAMICS FROM A MID-LEVEL VORT...THAT WAS ONCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN U.S. DURING
THE PAST MID-WEEK PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE ILM CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING CONVECTION MAKING IT TO THE FA. IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIR
MASS HAVING BEEN DEPLETED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALONG WITH A
MODERATING SFC BASED MARINE LAYER. WILL INDICATE NO POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FA. THIS A RESULT OF SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...PROGGED SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 5 DEGREES...WINDS LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA...AND AVBL MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP THE RADIATIONAL FOG COVERAGE TO
A MINIMUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BATCHES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS TWISTING AND CURLING WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COLUMN MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE AND
WE MAY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF H7 COOLING AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE A LARGER DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION BREWS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SCATTERED TO
LIKELY POP VALUES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THESE ANTICIPATED
INGREDIENTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE KEEPING
NIGHT TIME READINGS VERY MILD. AN H7 COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND-SHIFT AND DRYING ALOFT LATE MONDAY AND HAVE TAPERED POP VALUES
INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS/QPF BOTH DAYS ADDS UP
TO A 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...AND POTENTIALLY 1-2
INCHES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND FAR INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS
WILL BE WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PRONOUNCED SHEAR AXIS.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT ALREADY OFFSHORE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER
QUIET AFTERNOON WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
ALONG THE COAST FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION.
GIVEN HOW WEAK THE FLOW IS WILL SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS. WITH THIS
FEATURE OUT OF THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY EXPECT A FURTHER WARMUP AND
MERELY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW FROM ANY ACTIVITY FROM THE PRIOR AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL
UPTICK IN MID LEVEL SWRLY FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF TROUGHINESS
STRENGTHENING OVER OH/UPPER MS VALLEYS. THURSDAY THUS BEGINS AN
UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN. THE
ACTUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AT
INLAND TERMINALS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO LOWERED CIGS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PLENTY OF SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND SHOWERS/ISOLATED CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH WILL NOT REACH THE COASTAL SITES.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED CIGS WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AOB 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1111 PM SATURDAY...LOWERED POPS RELATED TO THE CONVECTION
TRYING TO REMAIN TOGETHER AS IT MOVES OFF THE NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA MAINLAND INTO THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. RATHER THICK SFC
BASED STABLE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS A WHOLE...AS WELL AS ITS SUSTAINABILITY
AFTER MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE RETURNING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SE-S WIND AROUND 10 KT...OCCASIONALLY
15 KT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2
FT...EXCEPT UP TO 3 FT FAR THE ILM SC WATERS. A 1 TO 2 FOOT
PSEUDO EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL
DOMINATE SIG. SEAS...WITH ONLY A 1-2 FOOT CONTRIBUTION FROM A 3
TO 4 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT NO HEADLINES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 4 FT SEAS WILL
MARK A GOOD PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST TOWARD THE COAST AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND INTERACT. SEAS WILL BE COMPOSED OF GROWING S WAVES
WITH PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS AND LOW-AMPLITUDE ESE SWELL WAVES.
MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER GETTING A FIX ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
HEADING OUT SINCE TSTMS MAY DOT THE WATERS...FAVORED MOSTLY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERVADE THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE
NORTH. THIS COULD ALSO STEER JUST ENOUGH SWELL ENERGY INTO THE
REGION TO BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR TWO.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 190204
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1004 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND..

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...NO CHANGE IN CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR FORECAST
AREA.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT. FRONT THAT WAS
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WET LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM SAT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOIST AIR TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY INCREASING SO WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACHES 2 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING ON
TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TAKING ON A
MORE STRATIFORM CHARACTER WITH MUCH COOLER AIR PLUNGING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER TAF SITES.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...CURRENT OBS SHOW LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED WIND AND SEAS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SSW FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BORDERLINE SCA
SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT JUST
BELOW PER LATEST WAVE MODELS. LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/CTC
MARINE...HSA/CGG/CTC

000
FXUS62 KRAH 190201
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO VA ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

CONVECTION HAS BECOME ALMOST ENTIRELY CONFINED TO SHORT LINE SEGMENT
ARCHING FROM BURLINGTON TO HILLSBOROUGH TO APEX...WITH SOME SIGNS OF
BUILDING FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD FUQUAY-VARINA.  THE ENTIRE SEGMENT
IS PUSHING NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A VORT MAX (CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD) WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT.  AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE ALL EVENING...THE STORMS ARE STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40MPH...BUT SEVERE CRITERIA HAS NOT BEEN
ATTAINABLE.  THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 250 J/KG OF CAPE.  HOWEVER...THIS AREA WAS PARTIALLY
WORKED OVER EARLIER IN THE EVENING...AND THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNKEN SOUTH TOWARD
KRWI/KRDU/KTDF AS A RESULT.  THUS...THE ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AS IT MOVES NORTH.  FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN
A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM SO FAR...WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF
NEAR 2 INCHES OBSERVED IN WAYNE COUNTY.

ONCE THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION IS OVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE
LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.  RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERSISTENT 25-30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...STRONGEST IN THE WEST... WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND (VEERING WINDS) AND PW OVER 1.4
INCHES...MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR
LINGERING BOUNDARIES.  LATE TONIGHT...THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTHEAST FROM
KENTUCKY/INDIANA...APPROACHING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 12Z.
SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...IT SEEMS THE BEST APPROACH WILL BE TO HAVE
CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD AND
INTO LIKELY CATEGORY BEYOND 12Z. TEMPS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STEADY
OR DROP JUST A FEW DEGREES...HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  -SMITH

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
A LOT OF SIMILARITIES BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY...MINUS THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD INITIALLY BE GREATEST IN THE WEST WITH
THE ENCROACHING REMNANTS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PEAKING DURING DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
SUSTAIN ITSELF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ACTUALLY SUGGEST LESS INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY..HINDERED PERHAPS
BY MORE ROBUST CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR OF 15KTS
OF LESS...EXPECT DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS TO RENDER A NON-ZERO
SEVERE THREAT. A HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF
HWY 64) TO MID 70S W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
PERVASIVE. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 1.75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY...SOME MINOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN
AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT...WITH GENERALLY LOWER 80S
EXPECTED.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
START TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALL OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
DRYING...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR SO.
THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH AN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
(BUT WILL STILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS
REACHED)...WITH POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED BY A STATIONARY
FRONT AND MULTITUDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...PRIMARILY
AT KGSO/KRDU/KFAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. INITIALLY VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MVFR-IFR DUE TO
LOWERING/DEVELOPING CEILINGS - LOWEST WEST (KINT/KGSO) - OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH MVFR
RANGE...TO VFR BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOW
APPROACH OF A LIFT-INDUCING AND MOISTURE-FOCUSING TROUGH ALOFT FROM
THE WEST WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NUMEROUS AGAIN WITH HEATING ON
SUNDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A MULTI-HOUR PREVAILING CONDITION OF SUCH BEYOND THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AND HAVE ELECTED TO CONVEY THE THREAT WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  -MWS

LOOKING AHEAD: A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE THREAT OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.  -CBL

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS/CBL

000
FXUS62 KRAH 190021
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
821 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO VA ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS...MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY
SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
TODAY....AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...WITH A POOL OF 1.6-1.8" PWATS (2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL)BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THERE WILL NOT BE A SHORTAGE OF FORCING MECHANISMS WITH THE
INTERACTION OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAKING FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ...DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING
OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION... THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S
SEABREEZE...AND EXPECTATIONS OF ANOTHER ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE BEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR
OF 20KTS OF LESS SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/PULSE STORMS THAT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY THREAT COULD BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS.
MODELS SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE REALLY SHEARING APART
APART...WHILE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS
IN THE WEST AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.


SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
A LOT OF SIMILARITIES BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY...MINUS THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD INITIALLY BE GREATEST IN THE WEST WITH
THE ENCROACHING REMNANTS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PEAKING DURING DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
SUSTAIN ITSELF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ACTUALLY SUGGEST LESS INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY..HINDERED PERHAPS
BY MORE ROBUST CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR OF 15KTS
OF LESS...EXPECT DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS TO RENDER A NON-ZERO
SEVERE THREAT. A HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF
HWY 64) TO MID 70S W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
PERVASIVE. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 1.75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY...SOME MINOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN
AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT...WITH GENERALLY LOWER 80S
EXPECTED.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
START TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALL OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
DRYING...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR SO.
THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH AN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
(BUT WILL STILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS
REACHED)...WITH POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED BY A STATIONARY
FRONT AND MULTITUDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...PRIMARILY
AT KGSO/KRDU/KFAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. INITIALLY VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MVFR-IFR DUE TO
LOWERING/DEVELOPING CEILINGS - LOWEST WEST (KINT/KGSO) - OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH MVFR
RANGE...TO VFR BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOW
APPROACH OF A LIFT-INDUCING AND MOISTURE-FOCUSING TROUGH ALOFT FROM
THE WEST WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NUMEROUS AGAIN WITH HEATING ON
SUNDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A MULTI-HOUR PREVAILING CONDITION OF SUCH BEYOND THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AND HAVE ELECTED TO CONVEY THE THREAT WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  -MWS

LOOKING AHEAD: A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE THREAT OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.  -CBL

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS/CBL

000
FXUS62 KILM 182335
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH DAY AND NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR MIDDLE MAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK...BRINGING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...2 AREAS OF CONVECTION NOTED BY THE KLTX
88D. OVERALL...SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS AND WILL
AFFECT THE FA THIS EVENING...COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION CONSISTS OF A BROKEN
LINE OF N TO S ORIENTED ACTIVITY SPEWED ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE SOME HEADWAY
TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT LIKELY WEAKEN AND/OR DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE SEA BREEZE AND INTO A SFC BASED MARINE STABLE
AIR MASS. THIS PCPN ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY
FORCING/DYNAMICS FROM A MID-LEVEL VORT ALOFT...THAT WAS ONCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN
U.S. DURING THE PAST MID-WEEK PERIOD. POPS WILL PEAK EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN TAILOR THEM BACK TO ISOLATED TO CHANCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE LACK OF THE DAYS INSOLATION. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MAY INEVITABLY NOT OBSERVE MUCH IF ANY PCPN FROM
THIS CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COAST.

THE 2ND AREA OR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LIES ACROSS EASTERN NC 1
TO 2 COUNTIES NE OF THE ILM CWA...WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NE AWAY
FROM THE ILM CWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT FROM THE EARLIER MENTIONED VORT. HOWEVER
     MODELS DO NOT ILLUSTRATE THIS CONVECTION BACK-FILLING ACROSS
THE ILM NC COUNTIES...AND THUS WILL MAINLY CONCENTRATE ON THE 1ST
AREA OF PCPN DISCUSSED EARLIER.

PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT...WHICH INCLUDES
A RATHER THICK VEIL OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
HINDER ANY WIDESPREAD/AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN
ACROSS AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL TODAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. NO TWEAKING TO THE CURRENT
MIN TEMP FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MANNER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE SREF IS AGGRESSIVE ON QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY
0000 UTC AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FREE OF ACTIVITY AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND THE DISPLACEMENT FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING TAKES ITS
TOLL. THERE REMAINS A DEFINITE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY
SO I HAVE INCREMENTALLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LACK OF THUNDER PROBABLY WARRANTS A CHANGE IN WEATHER TYPE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER BEING MORE APPROPRIATE.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND NO WEAK FRONTS AROUND TO DISTORT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES THAN MOS IS ADVERTISING APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST STRATEGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BATCHES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS TWISTING AND CURLING WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COLUMN MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE AND
WE MAY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF H7 COOLING AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE A LARGER DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION BREWS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SCATTERED TO
LIKELY POP VALUES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THESE ANTICIPATED
INGREDIENTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE KEEPING
NIGHT TIME READINGS VERY MILD. AN H7 COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND-SHIFT AND DRYING ALOFT LATE MONDAY AND HAVE TAPERED POP VALUES
INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS/QPF BOTH DAYS ADDS UP
TO A 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...AND POTENTIALLY 1-2
INCHES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND FAR INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS
WILL BE WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PRONOUNCED SHEAR AXIS.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT ALREADY OFFSHORE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER
QUIET AFTERNOON WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
ALONG THE COAST FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION.
GIVEN HOW WEAK THE FLOW IS WILL SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS. WITH THIS
FEATURE OUT OF THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY EXPECT A FURTHER WARMUP AND
MERELY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW FROM ANY ACTIVITY FROM THE PRIOR AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL
UPTICK IN MID LEVEL SWRLY FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF TROUGHINESS
STRENGTHENING OVER OH/UPPER MS VALLEYS. THURSDAY THUS BEGINS AN
UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN. THE
ACTUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AT
INLAND TERMINALS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO LOWERED CIGS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PLENTY OF SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND SHOWERS/ISOLATED CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH WILL NOT REACH THE COASTAL SITES.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED CIGS WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AOB 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...ONLY MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO CUT BACK ON THE
POPS RELATED TO THE CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND INTO THE
ILM COASTAL WATERS. RATHER THICK SFC BASED STABLE MARINE LAYER
CONTINUES TO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OR
SUSTAINABILITY AFTER MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND. THIS ALSO CAN BE
SEEN OVER LAND WHEN THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND FOLLOWED BY A
SFC BASED STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHES THROUGH
THE SEA BREEZE AND INTO THIS STABLE MARINE LAYER...NOT AS THICK
COMPARED TO THE SOURCE REGION...STILL WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES
BUT JUST NOT AS POETIC WHEN ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATES AFTER
MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND. LATEST WINDS AND SIG SEAS LOOK AOK WITH
ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS IS THE SEA BREEZE AND THIS IS TYPICAL OF A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THROUGH
850MB...SHOW ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 16
KNOTS...UP FROM ABOUT TEN KNOTS. THIS WILL WARRANT AN INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST TO A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE FROM AROUND TWO FEET TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT NO HEADLINES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 4 FT SEAS WILL
MARK A GOOD PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST TOWARD THE COAST AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND INTERACT. SEAS WILL BE COMPOSED OF GROWING S WAVES
WITH PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS AND LOW-AMPLITUDE ESE SWELL WAVES.
MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER GETTING A FIX ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
HEADING OUT SINCE TSTMS MAY DOT THE WATERS...FAVORED MOSTLY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERVADE THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE
NORTH. THIS COULD ALSO STEER JUST ENOUGH SWELL ENERGY INTO THE
REGION TO BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR TWO.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL

000
FXUS62 KILM 182306
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH DAY AND NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR MIDDLE MAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK...BRINGING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...2 AREAS OF CONVECTION NOTED BY THE KLTX
88D. OVERALL...SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS AND WILL
AFFECT THE FA THIS EVENING...COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION CONSISTS OF A BROKEN
LINE OF N TO S ORIENTED ACTIVITY SPEWED ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE SOME HEADWAY
TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT LIKELY WEAKEN AND/OR DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE SEA BREEZE AND INTO A SFC BASED MARINE STABLE
AIR MASS. THIS PCPN ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY
FORCING/DYNAMICS FROM A MID-LEVEL VORT ALOFT...THAT WAS ONCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN
U.S. DURING THE PAST MID-WEEK PERIOD. POPS WILL PEAK EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN TAILOR THEM BACK TO ISOLATED TO CHANCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE LACK OF THE DAYS INSOLATION. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MAY INEVITABLY NOT OBSERVE MUCH IF ANY PCPN FROM
THIS CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COAST.

THE 2ND AREA OR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LIES ACROSS EASTERN NC 1
TO 2 COUNTIES NE OF THE ILM CWA...WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NE AWAY
FROM THE ILM CWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT FROM THE EARLIER MENTIONED VORT. HOWEVER
...MODELS DO NOT ILLUSTRATE THIS CONVECTION BACK-FILLING ACROSS
THE ILM NC COUNTIES...AND THUS WILL MAINLY CONCENTRATE ON THE 1ST
AREA OF PCPN DISCUSSED EARLIER.

PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT...WHICH INCLUDES
A RATHER THICK VEIL OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
HINDER ANY WIDESPREAD/AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN
ACROSS AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL TODAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. NO TWEAKING TO THE CURRENT
MIN TEMP FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MANNER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE SREF IS AGGRESSIVE ON QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY
0000 UTC AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FREE OF ACTIVITY AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND THE DISPLACEMENT FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING TAKES ITS
TOLL. THERE REMAINS A DEFINITE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY
SO I HAVE INCREMENTALLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LACK OF THUNDER PROBABLY WARRANTS A CHANGE IN WEATHER TYPE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER BEING MORE APPROPRIATE.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND NO WEAK FRONTS AROUND TO DISTORT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES THAN MOS IS ADVERTISING APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST STRATEGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BATCHES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS TWISTING AND CURLING WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COLUMN MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE AND
WE MAY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF H7 COOLING AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE A LARGER DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION BREWS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SCATTERED TO
LIKELY POP VALUES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THESE ANTICIPATED
INGREDIENTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE KEEPING
NIGHT TIME READINGS VERY MILD. AN H7 COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND-SHIFT AND DRYING ALOFT LATE MONDAY AND HAVE TAPERED POP VALUES
INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS/QPF BOTH DAYS ADDS UP
TO A 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...AND POTENTIALLY 1-2
INCHES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND FAR INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS
WILL BE WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PRONOUNCED SHEAR AXIS.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT ALREADY OFFSHORE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER
QUIET AFTERNOON WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
ALONG THE COAST FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION.
GIVEN HOW WEAK THE FLOW IS WILL SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS. WITH THIS
FEATURE OUT OF THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY EXPECT A FURTHER WARMUP AND
MERELY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW FROM ANY ACTIVITY FROM THE PRIOR AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL
UPTICK IN MID LEVEL SWRLY FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF TROUGHINESS
STRENGTHENING OVER OH/UPPER MS VALLEYS. THURSDAY THUS BEGINS AN
UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN. THE
ACTUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND IMPACT THE INLAND TERMINALS DIRECTLY AND AFFECT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
THE PERIOD FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AT LBT/FLO.  LINGERING CLOUDS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRIGGERING THE STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT.  OUTSIDE STORMS...S TO SW
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...ONLY MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO CUT BACK ON THE
POPS RELATED TO THE CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND INTO THE
ILM COASTAL WATERS. RATHER THICK SFC BASED STABLE MARINE LAYER
CONTINUES TO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OR
SUSTAINABILITY AFTER MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND. THIS ALSO CAN BE
SEEN OVER LAND WHEN THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND FOLLOWED BY A
SFC BASED STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE CONVECTION THAT PUSHES THROUGH
THE SEA BREEZE AND INTO THIS STABLE MARINE LAYER...NOT AS THICK
COMPARED TO THE SOURCE REGION...STILL WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES
BUT JUST NOT AS POETIC WHEN ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATES AFTER
MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND. LATEST WINDS AND SIG SEAS LOOK AOK WITH
ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS IS THE SEA BREEZE AND THIS IS TYPICAL OF A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THROUGH
850MB...SHOW ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 16
KNOTS...UP FROM ABOUT TEN KNOTS. THIS WILL WARRANT AN INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST TO A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE FROM AROUND TWO FEET TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT NO HEADLINES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 4 FT SEAS WILL
MARK A GOOD PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST TOWARD THE COAST AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND INTERACT. SEAS WILL BE COMPOSED OF GROWING S WAVES
WITH PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS AND LOW-AMPLITUDE ESE SWELL WAVES.
MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER GETTING A FIX ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
HEADING OUT SINCE TSTMS MAY DOT THE WATERS...FAVORED MOSTLY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERVADE THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE
NORTH. THIS COULD ALSO STEER JUST ENOUGH SWELL ENERGY INTO THE
REGION TO BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR TWO.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 182236
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
636 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND..

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING. NO CHANGE IN CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR FORECAST
AREA.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT. FRONT THAT WAS
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WET LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM SAT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOIST AIR TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY INCREASING SO WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACHES 2 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING ON
TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TAKING ON A
MORE STRATIFORM CHARACTER WITH MUCH COOLER AIR PLUNGING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
TAFS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...CURRENT OBS SHOW LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNSET WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED WIND AND SEAS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SSW FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BORDERLINE SCA
SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT JUST
BELOW PER LATEST WAVE MODELS. LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/CTC
MARINE...HSA/CGG/CTC

000
FXUS62 KILM 181912
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH DAY AND NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR MIDDLE MAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK...BRINGING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MANNER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE SREF IS AGGRESSIVE ON QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY
0000 UTC AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FREE OF ACTIVITY AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND THE DISPLACEMENT FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING TAKES ITS
TOLL. THERE REMAINS A DEFINITE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY
SO I HAVE INCREMENTALLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LACK OF THUNDER PROBABLY WARRANTS A CHANGE IN WEATHER TYPE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER BEING MORE APPROPRIATE.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND NO WEAK FRONTS AROUND TO DISTORT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES THAN MOS IS ADVERTISING APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST STRATEGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BATCHES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS TWISTING AND CURLING WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COLUMN MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE AND
WE MAY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF H7 COOLING AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE A LARGER DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION BREWS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SCATTERED TO
LIKELY POP VALUES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THESE ANTICIPATED
INGREDIENTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE KEEPING
NIGHT TIME READINGS VERY MILD. AN H7 COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND-SHIFT AND DRYING ALOFT LATE MONDAY AND HAVE TAPERED POP VALUES
INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS/QPF BOTH DAYS ADDS UP
TO A 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...AND POTENTIALLY 1-2
INCHES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND FAR INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS
WILL BE WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PRONOUNCED SHEAR AXIS.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT ALREADY OFFSHORE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER
QUIET AFTERNOON WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
ALONG THE COAST FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION.
GIVEN HOW WEAK THE FLOW IS WILL SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS. WITH THIS
FEATURE OUT OF THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY EXPECT A FURTHER WARMUP AND
MERELY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW FROM ANY ACTIVITY FROM THE PRIOR AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL
UPTICK IN MID LEVEL SWRLY FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF TROUGINESS
STRENGTHENING OVER OH/UPPER MS VALLEYS. THURSDAY THUS BEGINS AN
UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN. THE
ACTUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND IMPACT THE INLAND TERMINALS DIRECTLY AND AFFECT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
THE PERIOD FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AT LBT/FLO.  LINGERING CLOUDS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRIGGERING THE STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT.  OUTSIDE STORMS...S TO SW
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS IS THE SEA BREEZE AND THIS IS TYPICAL OF A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THROUGH
850MB...SHOW ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 16
KNOTS...UP FROM ABOUT TEN KNOTS. THIS WILL WARRANT AN INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST TO A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE FROM AROUND TWO FEET TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT NO HEADLINES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 4 FT SEAS WILL
MARK A GOOD PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST TOWARD THE COAST AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND INTERACT. SEAS WILL BE COMPOSED OF GROWING S WAVES
WITH PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS AND LOW-AMPLITUDE ESE SWELL WAVES.
MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER GETTING A FIX ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
HEADING OUT SINCE TSTMS MAY DOT THE WATERS...FAVORED MOSTLY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERVADE THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE
NORTH. THIS COULD ALSO STEER JUST ENOUGH SWELL ENERGY INTO THE
REGION TO BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR TWO.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RAN/SHK

000
FXUS62 KILM 181908
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH DAY AND NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR MIDDLE MAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK...BRINGING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MANNER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE SREF IS AGGRESSIVE ON QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY
0000 UTC AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FREE OF ACTIVITY AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND THE DISPLACEMENT FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING TAKES ITS
TOLL. THERE REMAINS A DEFINITE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY
SO I HAVE INCREMENTALLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LACK OF THUNDER PROBABLY WARRANTS A CHANGE IN WEATHER TYPE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER BEING MORE APPROPRIATE.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND NO WEAK FRONTS AROUND TO DISTORT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES THAN MOS IS ADVERTISING APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST STRATEGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BATCHES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EVIDENT IN
VAPOR ANIMATIONS TWISTING AND CURLING WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COLUMN MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE AND
WE MAY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF H7 COOLING AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OF SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE A LARGER DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION BREWS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SCATTERED TO
LIKELY POP VALUES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THESE ANTICIPATED
INGREDIENTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE KEEP NIGHT
TIME READINGS VERY MILD. AN H7 COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND-SHIFT
AND DRYING ALOFT LATE MONDAY AND HAVE TAPERED POP VALUES INTO VERY
EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS/QPF BOTH DAYS ADDS UP TO A
1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...AND POTENTIALLY 1-2
INCHES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND FAR INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS
WILL BE WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PRONOUNCED SHEAR AXIS.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT ALREADY OFFSHORE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER
QUIET AFTERNOON WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT
ALONG THE COAST FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF CONVECTION.
GIVEN HOW WEAK THE FLOW IS WILL SHOW LOW END CHANCE POPS. WITH THIS
FEATURE OUT OF THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY EXPECT A FURTHER WARMUP AND
MERELY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW FROM ANY ACTIVITY FROM THE PRIOR AFTERNOON. A VERY GRADUAL
UPTICK IN MID LEVEL SWRLY FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF TROUGINESS
STRENGTHENING OVER OH/UPPER MS VALLEYS. THURSDAY THUS BEGINS AN
UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN. THE
ACTUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND IMPACT THE INLAND TERMINALS DIRECTLY AND AFFECT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
THE PERIOD FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AT LBT/FLO.  LINGERING CLOUDS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRIGGERING THE STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT.  OUTSIDE STORMS...S TO SW
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS IS THE SEA BREEZE AND THIS IS TYPICAL OF A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THROUGH
850MB...SHOW ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 16
KNOTS...UP FROM ABOUT TEN KNOTS. THIS WILL WARRANT AN INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST TO A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE FROM AROUND TWO FEET TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT NO HEADLINES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 4 FT SEAS WILL
MARK A GOOD PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST TOWARD THE COAST AND LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND INTERACT. SEAS WILL BE COMPOSED OF GROWING S WAVES
WITH PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS AND LOW-AMPLITUDE ESE SWELL WAVES.
MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER GETTING A FIX ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
HEADING OUT SINCE TSTMS MAY DOT THE WATERS...FAVORED MOSTLY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERVADE THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE
NORTH. THIS COULD ALSO STEER JUST ENOUGH SWELL ENERGY INTO THE
REGION TO BUILD SEAS A FOOT OR TWO.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RAN/SHK

000
FXUS62 KRAH 181859
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS...MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY
SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
TODAY....AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...WITH A POOL OF 1.6-1.8" PWATS (2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL)BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THERE WILL NOT BE A SHORTAGE OF FORCING MECHANISMS WITH THE
INTERACTION OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAKING FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ...DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING
OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION... THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S
SEABREEZE...AND EXPECTATIONS OF ANOTHER ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE BEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR
OF 20KTS OF LESS SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/PULSE STORMS THAT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY THREAT COULD BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS.
MODELS SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE REALLY SHEARING APART
APART...WHILE THE SFC FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS
IN THE WEST AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.


SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
A LOT OF SIMILARITIES BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY...MINUS THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD INITIALLY BE GREATEST IN THE WEST WITH
THE ENCROACHING REMNANTS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PEAKING DURING DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
SUSTAIN ITSELF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ACTUALLY SUGGEST LESS INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY..HINDERED PERHAPS
BY MORE ROBUST CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR OF 15KTS
OF LESS...EXPECT DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS TO RENDER A NON-ZERO
SEVERE THREAT. A HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN INSTANCES OF TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF
HWY 64) TO MID 70S W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
PERVASIVE. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEAR 1.75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY...SOME MINOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN
AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT...WITH GENERALLY LOWER 80S
EXPECTED.

PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
START TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALL OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
DRYING...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR SO.
THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP EACH DAY.
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH AN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
(BUT WILL STILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS
REACHED)...WITH POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

AREA OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AT KINT INVOF OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE THREAT OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 181756
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
156 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 133 PM SAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT. FRONT THAT
WAS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE
MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH WET LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP POPS
IN THE CHANCE RANGE TONIGHT. BIGGEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM SAT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOIST AIR TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY INCREASING SO WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WET AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACHES 2 INCHES LATE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING ON
TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. BY SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TAKING ON A
MORE STRATIFORM CHARACTER WITH MUCH COOLER AIR PLUNGING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM SAT...SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER TAFS.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH
EASTERLY WIND OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNSET WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOOSE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED WIND AND SEAS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
NO FLAGS EXPECTED.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SSW FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BORDERLINE SCA
SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT JUST
BELOW PER LATEST WAVE MODELS. LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC

000
FXUS62 KRAH 181746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
 A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...

A BAGGY MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS...MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.  IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY....AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A POOL OF
1.6-1.8" PWATS (2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS.

THERE WILL NOT BE A SHORTAGE OF FORCING MECHANISMS TODAY WITH
THE INTERACTION OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAKING
FOR AN ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER DAY. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM INDIVIDUAL S/W DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ...DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND AIDED BY
SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION... THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND EXPECTATIONS OF ANOTHER
ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR
OF 20KTS OF LESS SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/PULSE STORMS THAT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY THREAT COULD BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS.

TEMPERATURES...WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF
HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH TIME... WITH THE HIGHEST POP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LIKELY TO BE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH NEAR 80... BUT CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WHEN
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

AREA OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AT KINT INVOF OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE THREAT OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 181739
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM SAT...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NC. SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE INLAND COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM SAT...SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT WILL HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER TAFS.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1022 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS HATTERAS NORTH AND S
WINDS AOB 10 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S
10-15 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD

000
FXUS62 KILM 181727
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING AND DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT MANNER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE SREF IS AGGRESSIVE ON QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY
0000 UTC AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY FREE OF ACTIVITY AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE
AND THE DISPLACEMENT FROM THE BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING TAKES ITS
TOLL. THERE REMAINS A DEFINITE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY
SO I HAVE INCREMENTALLY LOWERED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LACK OF THUNDER PROBABLY WARRANTS A CHANGE IN WEATHER TYPE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER BEING MORE APPROPRIATE.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND NO WEAK FRONTS AROUND TO DISTORT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES THAN MOS IS ADVERTISING APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST STRATEGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND IMPACT THE INLAND TERMINALS DIRECTLY AND AFFECT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
THE PERIOD FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AT LBT/FLO.  LINGERING CLOUDS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRIGGERING THE STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT.  OUTSIDE STORMS...S TO SW
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM SATURDAY...THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS IS THE SEA BREEZE AND THIS IS TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THROUGH 850MB...SHOW
ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 16 KNOTS...UP FROM ABOUT
TEN KNOTS. THIS WILL WARRANT AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST TO A RANGE
OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
FROM AROUND TWO FEET TO 2-3 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN

000
FXUS62 KILM 181452
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1052 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WESTERN ZONES THE FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS BROAD
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SHOULD PROVIDE THE CATALYST. NO CHANGES TO
POPS...WHICH REPRESENT THE CURRENT TRENDS WELL OR EXPECTED MAX
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AFTER ANY RESIDUAL MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THIS
AM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD.  THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
AT LBT/FLO.  AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH THE EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS.  WINDS SHOULD BE S TO
SW 5 TO 10 KT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:30 AM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH SIX KNOTS AND JUST OVER TWO FEET
AT 41013. NO CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND TEN KNOTS WITH SEAS TWO FEET OR SO. ANY CONVECTION
THAT MAY DISTORT WINDS TEMPORARILY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN

000
FXUS62 KMHX 181421
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM SAT...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NC. SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE INLAND COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z OTRW
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT SPLY ACROSS AREAS RECEIVING RAFL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1022 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS HATTERAS NORTH AND S
WINDS AOB 10 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S
10-15 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 181344
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
943 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...

A BAGGY MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS...MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.  IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY....AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A POOL OF
1.6-1.8" PWATS (2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS.

THERE WILL NOT BE A SHORTAGE OF FORCING MECHANISMS TODAY WITH
THE INTERACTION OF BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAKING
FOR AN ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER DAY. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM INDIVIDUAL S/W DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ...DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND AIDED BY
SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION... THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND EXPECTATIONS OF ANOTHER
ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER WEAK SHEAR
OF 20KTS OF LESS SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/PULSE STORMS THAT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY THREAT COULD BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS.

TEMPERATURES...WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF
HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH TIME... WITH THE HIGHEST POP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LIKELY TO BE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH NEAR 80... BUT CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WHEN
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

AREA OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND IMPACTING KINT HAS DEVELOPED INVOF THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE. EXPECT THESE CEILING TO LIFT TO VFR BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR IN LINGERING
SHOWERS.


LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KILM 181139
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH. FLOW AT PRESENT IS ACTUALLY
MAINLY FROM THE SW...BUT A SLIGHT RE- ORIENTATION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN EXTRA KICK INLAND TO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL START DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUS BRINGING WITH IT A GREATER
MARINE INFLUENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
RECENTLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL STILL COME IN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ODDS WILL REMAIN MODEST IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ADVANCES UPON THE AREA. MOST
PLACES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AFTER ANY RESIDUAL MORNING FOG BURNS OFF THIS
AM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD.  THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
AT LBT/FLO.  AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH THE EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS.  WINDS SHOULD BE S TO
SW 5 TO 10 KT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL
TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR-SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BRINGS NEAR-SHORE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT 2 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD GET
CHOPPY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...RAN

000
FXUS62 KRAH 181041
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
641 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TN/KY AT 06Z THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY
INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 06Z WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN TN/KY
OR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUN. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PRECIP CHANCES:
EXPECT AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOC/W THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND PRIMARILY
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE (INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT)
LATER THIS AFT/EVE. SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...
THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND A LINGERING (ALBEIT
WEAK) FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE REMNANT BOUNDARIES...A ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
COVERAGE IN EAST/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES MID/LATE AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM 50-60% IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT TO 30% IN THE EAST/SE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM
60-70% WEST TO 40% EAST. 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING ALONG...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN INSUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (15 KT OR LESS) AND LOW DCAPE.

TEMPERATURES:
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST
EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH TIME... WITH THE HIGHEST POP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LIKELY TO BE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH NEAR 80... BUT CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WHEN
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY IN VICINITY
OF THE INTS/GSO TERMINASL. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 181016
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH. FLOW AT PRESENT IS ACTUALLY
MAINLY FROM THE SW...BUT A SLIGHT RE- ORIENTATION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN EXTRA KICK INLAND TO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL START DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUS BRINGING WITH IT A GREATER
MARINE INFLUENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
RECENTLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL STILL COME IN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ODDS WILL REMAIN MODEST IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ADVANCES UPON THE AREA. MOST
PLACES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBT/KFLO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12 KTS. ISOLATED
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PCPN IN
THE TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL
TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR-SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BRINGS NEAR-SHORE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT 2 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD GET
CHOPPY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK/BJR
MARINE...REK/JDW

000
FXUS62 KMHX 181011
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
611 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WILL CONT ACROSS
NRN SXNS THIS MORN INVOF OF FRONT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
ON UPDATE. INCREASED POPS SOME AND STARTED TSRA SOONER AT 16Z.

PREV DISC...WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A
SELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST CHC
POPS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS NRN AREAS INVOF OF THE FRONT AND DURG
MAX HTG. SLGTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER MOCLDY SKIES. HIGHS
EXPECTED FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE MID 70S TO ARND 80
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z OTRW
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT SPLY ACROSS AREAS RECEIVING RAFL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS HATTERAS NORTH AND S
WINDS AOB 10 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S
10-15 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180753
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TN/KY AT 06Z THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY
INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 06Z WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN TN/KY
OR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUN. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PRECIP CHANCES:
EXPECT AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOC/W THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND PRIMARILY
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE (INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT)
LATER THIS AFT/EVE. SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...
THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND A LINGERING (ALBEIT
WEAK) FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE REMNANT BOUNDARIES...A ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
COVERAGE IN EAST/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES MID/LATE AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM 50-60% IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT TO 30% IN THE EAST/SE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM
60-70% WEST TO 40% EAST. 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING ALONG...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN INSUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (15 KT OR LESS) AND LOW DCAPE.

TEMPERATURES:
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST
EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. THE HIGHEST POP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH TIME... WITH THE HIGHEST POP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LIKELY TO BE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH NEAR 80... BUT CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WHEN
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 180735
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH. FLOW AT
PRESENT IS ACTUALLY MAINLY FROM THE SW...BUT A SLIGHT RE-ORIENTATION
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE AN EXTRA KICK INLAND
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL START DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING. AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND THUS BRINGING WITH IT A
GREATER MARINE INFLUENCE EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS
RECENTLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL STILL COME IN A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS...AND AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ODDS WILL REMAIN MODEST IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ADVANCES UPON THE AREA. MOST
PLACES...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE MID 60S...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD DURING THE SHORT TERM...COMBINING WITH RICH THETA-E AIR ON
RETURN FLOW TO CREATE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH AFTN.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUALLY PUMP
WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES.
THIS IS A PATTERN WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 5H
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING LIFT AND PROMOTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES DUE TO A
COOL POOL ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IS
USUAL FOR THIS SETUP. WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S EACH
AFTN...MLCAPE WILL RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...FUELING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. SREF PROBS FOR 0.01"
RISE TO 100% (TYPICALLY A SIGNAL THAT QPF IS LIKELY) BOTH SUN AND
MON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FOR
THIS AREA BOTH AFTNS. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION LIMITED...BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR
WITHIN TSTMS DUE TO THE SATURATED COLUMN.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED...RESIDUAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO LIVE ON SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND
NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST SCHC EACH NIGHT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MINS EACH NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MID-MAY...FALLING INTO THE MID 60S...UPR 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS PERSIST
DURING THE EXTENDED AS BERMUDA HIGH SITS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BULGES FROM THE GULF COAST. WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...COMBINATION OF SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WED/THU. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGES OR COLD
FRONT IMPACTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WED/THU...BUT ALL
DAYS WILL BE CLIMO...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBT/KFLO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12 KTS. ISOLATED
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PCPN IN
THE TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED WELL TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR-SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BRINGS NEAR-SHORE WINDS UP TO AROUND 15
KTS. SEAS WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT 2 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY
COULD GET CHOPPY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG...S/SW WINDS AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE DIURNAL OR DIRECTIONAL
FLUCTUATION. WITH BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE...PERSISTENT EAST
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND IT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY LONG-PERIOD
SWELL...BECOMING 2-3 FT AT 10 SEC ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
S/SW WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED BERMUDA RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP PERSISTENT 10-15 KTS OF S/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE
LONG TEMPORAL DURATION OF THIS FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL
KEEP A 2FT/10 SEC SE SWELL IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH 3-4 FT SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. THESE TWO WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK
MARINE...REK/JDW

000
FXUS62 KMHX 180722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH
LATE TODAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN
SXNS EARLY THIS MORN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SHRA.
WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A SELY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST CHC POPS TODAY WILL
BE ACROSS NRN AREAS INVOF OF THE FRONT AND DURG MAX HTG. SLGTLY
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER MOCLDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE MID 70S TO ARND 80 IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT ENHANCED
BY WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN SXNS. SKIES RMN MOCLDY
WITH LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. BEST CHANCES
SUN STILL LOOK LIKE W OF HWY 17...WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50 POPS
RIGHT NOW. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG TSTM SUN INTO MON WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAVE WED AND WED NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THU FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID- LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND MID 70S/80 ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH TODAY WITH WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z OTRW PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUE/WED. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORN WITH ELY FLOW ARND 10 KTS OCRACOKE NORTH
AND SE 10 KT TO THE SOUTH WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE S 10-15
KT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT EXCEPT UP TO
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NRN AND CNTRL CSTL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED S/SWLY WINDS
10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6FT ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/CQD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180720
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TN/KY AT 06Z THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY
INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 06Z WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN TN/KY
OR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUN. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PRECIP CHANCES:
EXPECT AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOC/W THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND PRIMARILY
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE (INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT)
LATER THIS AFT/EVE. SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...
THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND A LINGERING (ALBEIT
WEAK) FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE REMNANT BOUNDARIES...A ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
COVERAGE IN EAST/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES MID/LATE AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM 50-60% IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT TO 30% IN THE EAST/SE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM
60-70% WEST TO 40% EAST. 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING ALONG...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN INSUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (15 KT OR LESS) AND LOW DCAPE.

TEMPERATURES:
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST
EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WAY. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH AN OVERALL MOIST COLUMN IN
PLACE GIVEN PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TODAY/TONIGHT AND THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND LESS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA...
EXPECT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN TODAY...AND WILL INDICATE
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 70-80% WEST/NW TO 50% FAR EAST/SE WHERE
THE RELATIVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LAG SOMEWHAT BEHIND PEAK HEATING IN ADDITION TO
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE BEST OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A GENERAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...
THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE (40-50%) GIVEN
A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS THAN TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SE COASTAL
PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW DCAPE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80... BUT
CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TN/KY AT 06Z THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY
INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 06Z WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN TN/KY
OR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUN. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND THE DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND A LOW-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PRECIP CHANCES:
EXPECT AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRIMARILY ASSOC/W THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND PRIMARILY
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE (INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT)
LATER THIS AFT/EVE. SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...INCLUDING OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION...
THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S SEABREEZE...AND A LINGERING (ALBEIT
WEAK) FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE REMNANT BOUNDARIES...A ROBUST SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
COVERAGE IN EAST/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 1 WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES MID/LATE AFTERNOON
RANGING FROM 50-60% IN THE FAR W/NW PIEDMONT TO 30% IN THE EAST/SE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM
60-70% WEST TO 40% EAST. 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION MOVING ALONG...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN INSUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (15 KT OR LESS) AND LOW DCAPE.

TEMPERATURES:
SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S E/SE (HIGHEST
EAST OF HWY 1/SOUTH OF HWY 64) TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
W/NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PERVASIVE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80... BUT
CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180648
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...

THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHED NORTHEASTERN NC EARLIER TODAY HAS
ESSENTIALLY STALLED...AND CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRIMARILY FOCUSED
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...AND
HAS DRIFTED NORTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED...WITH THE
STRONGEST CELL OVER EASTERN WAYNE NOW DRIFTING EAST SINCE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE SEABREEZE.  DESPITE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING (PW UP TO 1.25")...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT/MOISTENING TO TAP INTO THE
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD RESIDE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.  THE REMNANT VORTEX FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN US
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NC OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST NOT TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE
UNTIL SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN NC TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO AID ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PRIMARILY TOWARD
09-12Z.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVERNIGHT WITH VARIOUS
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES LINGERING...AND BRING IN A LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 12Z.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THOUGH IF PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY
OVER EASTERN AREAS.  LOWS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS..THOUGH SOME LOWER 60S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST IF
CLEARING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING VARIOUS WRF OUTPUT...ON A LARGE
SCALE...MEAN RH INCREASES TO A MAXIMUM DURING THE PERIOD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND TO ABOUT U.S. 1
OR SO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...850MB THETA-E IS GREATEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT
FOCUSED OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEST
COMPARED TO EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...INSTEAD OF
TRYING TO INTERPRET THE VARIETY OF WRF TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARD LARGE-SCALE FEATURES.
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BECOMING LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO
AROUND U.S. 1 BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLOSER TO 850MB LOW PRESSURE.
THE LEAST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ...WHERE OVERALL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LEAST...CLOSER ALSO TO THE 850MB RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE. THE GFS HAS FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE AROUND 0.75
INCH FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY   THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

THE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY 1+ INCHES LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80... BUT
CONVECTION WILL PUT A LID ON TEMPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME DRYING WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR REGION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S) TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER... A PRONOUNCED
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S (UPPER 80S SANDHILLS). LOWS WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID... 65-70.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT MAY MAKE A RUN AT CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY... KEEPING POP IN
THE "CHANCE" CATEGORY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND HUMID (65-70).
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED... WITH SOME MINIMAL COOLING SATURDAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 180604
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
204 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2:00 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN A ROUGHLY CAPE LOOKOUT TO RDU
LINE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED BY THE KLTX 88D ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS LINE...WITH MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE ILM CWA. WITH A
LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE ILM CWA...DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...POPS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OVERNITE
FORECAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE PATCHY
GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS DUE TO HIER...60+...DEWPOINTS HAVING
ADVECTED ACROSS THE FA...AND WITH WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING FOR
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KLBT/KFLO. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12 KTS. ISOLATED
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PCPN IN
THE TAFS ATTM AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z...BUT IT APPEARS THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
LOOKOUT THIS EVENING...AND WILL BEGIN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS HAS NEARLY DECAYED IN ITS ENTIRETY. THIS LEAVES
RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH TO RESUME PRIMARY CONTROL
OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT TO
YIELD MAINLY A SW WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 10-15 KT ILM SC
WATERS. THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR MAY ACTUALLY OBSERVE 5 KT OR
LESS DUE TO THE FRONTS PROXIMITY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH ITS MAKE-UP A COMBINATION OF A 1.0 TO 1.5
FOOT SE GROUNDSWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND LOCALLY PRODUCED 4
SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...DCH/MJC/REK/MBB

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...

THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHED NORTHEASTERN NC EARLIER TODAY HAS
ESSENTIALLY STALLED...AND CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRIMARILY FOCUSED
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...AND
HAS DRIFTED NORTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED...WITH THE
STRONGEST CELL OVER EASTERN WAYNE NOW DRIFTING EAST SINCE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE SEABREEZE.  DESPITE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING (PW UP TO 1.25")...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT/MOISTENING TO TAP INTO THE
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD RESIDE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.  THE REMNANT VORTEX FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN US
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NC OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST NOT TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE
UNTIL SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN NC TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO AID ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PRIMARILY TOWARD
09-12Z.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVERNIGHT WITH VARIOUS
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES LINGERING...AND BRING IN A LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 12Z.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THOUGH IF PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY
OVER EASTERN AREAS.  LOWS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS..THOUGH SOME LOWER 60S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST IF
CLEARING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING VARIOUS WRF OUTPUT...ON A LARGE
SCALE...MEAN RH INCREASES TO A MAXIMUM DURING THE PERIOD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND TO ABOUT U.S. 1
OR SO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...850MB THETA-E IS GREATEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT
FOCUSED OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEST
COMPARED TO EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...INSTEAD OF
TRYING TO INTERPRET THE VARIETY OF WRF TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARD LARGE-SCALE FEATURES.
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BECOMING LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO
AROUND U.S. 1 BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLOSER TO 850MB LOW PRESSURE.
THE LEAST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ...WHERE OVERALL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LEAST...CLOSER ALSO TO THE 850MB RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE. THE GFS HAS FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE AROUND 0.75
INCH FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT H850 A TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO TN AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH FROM AN OFFSHORE HIGH. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE STRENGTH AND CHARACTER OF THE SHORTWAVE LOW...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE TWO. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND
DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN SD...EXTENDING SSE
THROUGH CENTRAL OK/TX...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WARM MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FUELING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN
THE WEAK STEERING FLOW EXPECTED. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE IS OF THE
TALL AND SKINNY VARIETY...WITH VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF MAINLY 10-20
KTS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FROM POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HAVE DECREASED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS STILL LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONTINUE
TO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS. A MIDWEST LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME AND THE TROUGH
BECOMES ORIENTED MORE SW TO NE...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION MOVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...DECREASING AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...
PRIMARILY AT THE INT/GSO/RWI TERMINALS WHERE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LOW TEMP/DPT SPREADS AS OF 05Z.
ELSEWHERE...SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
TEMP/DPT SPREADS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESP AT THE INT/GSO/
RDU/RWI TERMINALS...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. -VINCENT


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KMHX 180516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
116 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM LATE
SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM SATURDAY...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
NERN SXNS EARLY THIS MORN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVERNIGHT MAINLY SHRA.
NO SIG CHANGES.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TO THE
US64 CORRIDOR PROVIDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
MODELS NOT BEST AS IT HAS BEEN OVERDOING PCPN OF LATE BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATION ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLS AS WEAK TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS INLAND AND NRN TIER
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BETTER INSTABILITY SO EXPECTING A BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW WITH MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE ON MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY AND NO POP FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AGAIN POPS
RAMPING UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING NRN RTES...ALONG THE US64/264
CORRIDORS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND WEAK
TROUGHING APPROACH FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
LIGHT FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PCPN THIS EVENING. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DROPS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORN WITH ELY
FLOW MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS OCRACOKE NORTH AND SE FLOW AOB 10 KT TO
THE SOUTH WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FEATURE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND MOST DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. PER
LATEST WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS...WAVES SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE...BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC/HSA/SK
MARINE...JAC/CTC/HSA/SK

000
FXUS62 KILM 180357
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1157 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM FRIDAY...CONTINUED TO MODIFY SFC PARAMETERS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECAYING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE FA.
AND AS BEFORE...MESHED THESE CHANGES WITH THE ONGOING SAT PRE-
DAWN HR FORECAST. THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN A
ROUGHLY CAPE LOOKOUT TO RDU LINE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED
BY THE KLTX 88D ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE...WITH MOVEMENT AWAY
FROM THE ILM CWA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE ILM CWA...
DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...POPS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OVERNITE FORECAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE PATCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS DUE
TO HIER...60+...DEWPOINTS HAVING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FA...AND
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING FOR SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
ENHANCED NEAR SFC WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS INLAND...KLBT/KFLO...ALONG WITH FOG-PRONE KCRE. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN HOURS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM FRIDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT THIS EVENING...AND WILL BEGIN LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS NEARLY DECAYED IN ITS ENTIRETY. THIS
LEAVES RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH TO RESUME PRIMARY
CONTROL OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT TO YIELD MAINLY A SW WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY
10-15 KT ILM SC WATERS. THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR MAY ACTUALLY
OBSERVE 5 KT OR LESS DUE TO THE FRONTS PROXIMITY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH ITS MAKE-UP A COMBINATION
OF A 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT SE GROUNDSWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND
LOCALLY PRODUCED 4 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KMHX 180210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM LATE
SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...ONLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST PLAIN LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TO THE US64 CORRIDOR
PROVIDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS NOT BEST
AS IT HAS BEEN OVERDOING PCPN OF LATE BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLT
CHC/CHC POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATION ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLS AS WEAK TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS INLAND AND NRN TIER
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BETTER INSTABILITY SO EXPECTING A BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW WITH MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE ON MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY AND NO POP FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AGAIN POPS
RAMPING UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING NRN RTES...ALONG THE US64/264
CORRIDORS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND WEAK
TROUGHING APPROACH FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
LIGHT FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PCPN THIS EVENING. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DROPS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH ELY FLOW MAINLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OCRACOKE NORTH AND SE FLOW AOB 10 KT TO THE SOUTH WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FEATURE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND MOST DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. PER
LATEST WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS...WAVES SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE...BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/SK/CTC
MARINE...HSA/SK/CTC

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180202
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN NC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA ON SUNDAY...BENEATH A TROUGH ALOFT THAT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...

THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHED NORTHEASTERN NC EARLIER TODAY HAS
ESSENTIALLY STALLED...AND CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRIMARILY FOCUSED
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...AND
HAS DRIFTED NORTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED...WITH THE
STRONGEST CELL OVER EASTERN WAYNE NOW DRIFTING EAST SINCE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE SEABREEZE.  DESPITE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING (PW UP TO 1.25")...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT/MOISTENING TO TAP INTO THE
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD RESIDE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION.  THE REMNANT VORTEX FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN US
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NC OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD FAR ENOUGH TO OUR WEST NOT TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE
UNTIL SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN NC TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO AID ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...PRIMARILY TOWARD
09-12Z.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OVERNIGHT WITH VARIOUS
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES LINGERING...AND BRING IN A LOW END
CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 12Z.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THOUGH IF PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY
OVER EASTERN AREAS.  LOWS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS..THOUGH SOME LOWER 60S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST IF
CLEARING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING VARIOUS WRF OUTPUT...ON A LARGE
SCALE...MEAN RH INCREASES TO A MAXIMUM DURING THE PERIOD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND TO ABOUT U.S. 1
OR SO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...850MB THETA-E IS GREATEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT
FOCUSED OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEST
COMPARED TO EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...INSTEAD OF
TRYING TO INTERPRET THE VARIETY OF WRF TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARD LARGE-SCALE FEATURES.
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BECOMING LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO
AROUND U.S. 1 BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLOSER TO 850MB LOW PRESSURE.
THE LEAST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ...WHERE OVERALL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LEAST...CLOSER ALSO TO THE 850MB RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE. THE GFS HAS FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE AROUND 0.75
INCH FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT H850 A TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO TN AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH FROM AN OFFSHORE HIGH. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE STRENGTH AND CHARACTER OF THE SHORTWAVE LOW...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE TWO. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND
DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN SD...EXTENDING SSE
THROUGH CENTRAL OK/TX...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WARM MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FUELING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN
THE WEAK STEERING FLOW EXPECTED. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE IS OF THE
TALL AND SKINNY VARIETY...WITH VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF MAINLY 10-20
KTS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FROM POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HAVE DECREASED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS STILL LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONTINUE
TO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS. A MIDWEST LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME AND THE TROUGH
BECOMES ORIENTED MORE SW TO NE...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION MOVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...DECREASING AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE FOLLOWING THREE RELATIVELY SHORT-DURATION
EXCEPTIONS: 1) VICINITY SHOWERS AT TRIAD TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO... 2) MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SAT MORNING...
PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE VICINITY OF TRIAD
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND 3) A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING...WITH THE RELATIVE
HIGHEST CHANCE/COVERAGE NORTH OF KFAY.  THOUGH THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE SCATTERED ABOUT SAT AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MULTI-HOUR PREVAILING
CONDITION OF SUCH AT THIS TIME RANGE.  -MWS

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE...BECOMING LIKELY IN THE TRIAD BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING AT LEAST TO KRDU BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALONG WITH THE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BRING...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST TOWARD KINT AND KGSO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF THOSE
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. PERIODS
OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...OR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER MIXING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  -DJF

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MWS/DJF

000
FXUS62 KILM 180020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
820 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...MODIFIED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS ACROSS THE
ILM CWA DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND ITS EXTENT INLAND.
THIS WAS DONE PRIMARILY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...THEN
MESHING THESE CHANGED METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS WITH THE GOING
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION..THE LATEST KLTX 88D
INDICATES NO ECHOES ACROSS THE FA...AND THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ALL
POPS THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A LACK
OF FORCING... DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...ALL POINTING NEGATIVE FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FA
OVERNIGHT. THE FA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...
WHICH IS PROGGED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE PATCHY GROUND FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP
AND GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF
WHICH THE FORCING INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
ENHANCED NEAR SFC WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS INLAND...KLBT/KFLO...ALONG WITH FOG-PRONE KCRE. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN HOURS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...MODELS PROG THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL DECAY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THIS
LEAVES RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH TO RESUME PRIMARY
CONTROL OF THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND
GRADIENT TO YIELD SSW 10-15 KT WINDS TO VEER TO SW AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
OCCASIONALLY 3 FT. SIG. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF A 1.0 TO
1.5 FOOT SE GROUNDSWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS...AND LOCALLY PRODUCED
4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 180019
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
819 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN NC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA ON SUNDAY...BENEATH A TROUGH ALOFT THAT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND OHIO...THEN BENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
COASTAL PLAIN...INSTABILITY WAS HIGHEST WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500J/KG ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE WAS MEAGER...AND WHILE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD
YET TO FALL AS FAR AS THE RAP FORECAST...THEY STILL HAVE FALLEN
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S OVER MOST PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OUTPUT
OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...AND CONSIDERING THE NAM APPEARS
SO OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH ITS FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE RAP AND GFS OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE BETTER CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT KTDF TO KRWI. THIS IS WHERE THE RAP SHOWS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING AROUND AND AFTER 00Z...SUPPORTED MOST BY THE LOCAL
RALEIGH WRF REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. IN THE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT IN PARTICULAR...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN ONLY NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER THERE AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE
NAM...ARE QUITE HIGH OVERNIGHT...BUT THE NAM ALSO FORECASTS SURFACE
DEW POINTS GETTING NEAR 70 OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY
21Z...WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY. UNDER A CONTINUING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING EAST...WILL ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL
REDUCTION IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE
DETAILS IN THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING VARIOUS WRF OUTPUT...ON A LARGE
SCALE...MEAN RH INCREASES TO A MAXIMUM DURING THE PERIOD LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND TO ABOUT U.S. 1
OR SO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...850MB THETA-E IS GREATEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE 850MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES TO AROUND 25KT
FOCUSED OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WEST
COMPARED TO EAST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS A RESULT...INSTEAD OF
TRYING TO INTERPRET THE VARIETY OF WRF TRENDS...HAVE FOLLOWED A
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LEANING MORE TOWARD LARGE-SCALE FEATURES.
THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...BECOMING LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO
AROUND U.S. 1 BY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLOSER TO 850MB LOW PRESSURE.
THE LEAST CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD KGSB AND KCTZ...WHERE OVERALL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LEAST...CLOSER ALSO TO THE 850MB RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE. THE GFS HAS FAIRLY ROBUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
TRIAD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT FOR
NOW WILL FORECAST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE AROUND 0.75
INCH FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE TIMING...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL AN ISSUE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT H850 A TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE
PARENT LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO TN AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH FROM AN OFFSHORE HIGH. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE STRENGTH AND CHARACTER OF THE SHORTWAVE LOW...THUS WILL
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE TWO. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND
DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN SD...EXTENDING SSE
THROUGH CENTRAL OK/TX...AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. WARM MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FUELING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN
THE WEAK STEERING FLOW EXPECTED. MODEL GENERATED MLCAPE IS OF THE
TALL AND SKINNY VARIETY...WITH VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF MAINLY 10-20
KTS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE MODE TO BE MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BIGGER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FROM POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIP AMOUNTS...HAVE DECREASED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS STILL LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONTINUE
TO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE ESE...WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORECAST PWAT VALUES. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE MID
LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS. A MIDWEST LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME AND THE TROUGH
BECOMES ORIENTED MORE SW TO NE...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION MOVING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...DECREASING AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE FOLLOWING THREE RELATIVELY SHORT-DURATION
EXCEPTIONS: 1) VICINITY SHOWERS AT TRIAD TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO... 2) MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SAT MORNING...
PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE VICINITY OF TRIAD
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND 3) A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING...WITH THE RELATIVE
HIGHEST CHANCE/COVERAGE NORTH OF KFAY.  THOUGH THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE SCATTERED ABOUT SAT AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MULTI-HOUR PREVAILING
CONDITION OF SUCH AT THIS TIME RANGE.  -MWS

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE...BECOMING LIKELY IN THE TRIAD BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING AT LEAST TO KRDU BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALONG WITH THE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BRING...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST TOWARD KINT AND KGSO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF THOSE
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. PERIODS
OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...OR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY...AND AGAIN AFTER MIXING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  -DJF

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MWS/DJF

000
FXUS62 KILM 172359
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEASURED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP
AND GLOBAL GFS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THIS TREND OF
WHICH THE FORCING INCLUDES THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...POSSIBLY A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...I HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER 0300 UTC. ENOUGH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL
DEGREES OF H5 COOLING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. SATURDAY
A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LURK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
VERY NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST ZONES. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE FAVORED
DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING...AND MOSTLY INLAND SINCE
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATE STANDARDS FOR MIDDLE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO ON MONDAY DESPITE
BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE SUPPORTIVE OF WARMER TEMPS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN
NORMALLY EXPECTED IN SUCH A SETUP AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO HINDER INSOLATION. THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST (ALTHOUGH NOT ACCORD TO GFS) LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING THE TREND TOWARDS
WARMTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD SEES
THE MID LVL RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED FROM THE N BY TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN CANADA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT`LL HAVE
THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AT LEAST WITH THE
RAPIDITY SHOWN BY THE GFS. EC AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWER SHOWING THAT
COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH NOT CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL FRIDAY TO
START RAMPING UP POPS AND TEMPERING THE WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
ENHANCED NEAR SFC WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
VSBYS INLAND...KLBT/KFLO...ALONG WITH FOG-PRONE KCRE. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH S-SW WINDS 8-12
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN HOURS...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS.
WAVEWATCH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH PRECLUDING ANY WIND SHIFT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS...BRINGING MODERATE SW WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS...AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY MAY INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF MODERATE SSW WIND-WAVES AND
SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-10 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LITTLE MEANINGFUL VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BORNE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH SPEEDS TENDING TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15KT RANGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD THE HIGH
BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND DEFORMED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. CURRENT
THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND SO THIS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR

000
FXUS62 KMHX 172308
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM LATE
SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM FRIDAY...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA A PRESENT SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP EARLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TO
THE US64 CORRIDOR PROVIDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS NOT BEST AS IT HAS BEEN OVERDOING PCPN OF LATE BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...THE SFC BOUNDARY PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATION ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLS AS WEAK TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC POPS INLAND AND NRN TIER
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN. FLOW
BECOMES SELY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BETTER INSTABILITY SO EXPECTING A BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW WITH MID 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COUPLED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS A WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE ON MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AROUND TUESDAY AND NO POP FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH AGAIN POPS
RAMPING UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

WITH NO REAL COOL AIR INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLY CONTINUING NRN RTES...ALONG THE US64/264
CORRIDORS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND WEAK
TROUGHING APPROACH FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUTSIDE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
LIGHT FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PCPN THIS EVENING. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DROPS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM FRIDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH ELY FLOW MAINLY 10 KTS
OR LESS OCRACOKE NORTH AND SWLY FLOW AOB 15 KT TO THE SOUTH WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FEATURE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND MOST DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. PER
LATEST WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS...WAVES SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE...BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/SK/CTC
MARINE...HSA/SK/CTC