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000
FXUS62 KRAH 010758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AT 0730Z...AND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF NC THROUGH 12Z.
NORTH TO NE SFC WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BOTH
IN THE FEW HOUR WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AGAIN AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING BETWEEN 12-15Z...MAINLY EAST OF 1-95.

WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL
DOT THE SKY THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE PARENT S/W
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. CLEARING AND
HEIGHT RISES IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW...AND CAUSE A
1018 MB SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN OH TO STRENGTHEN A FEW MB AS IT
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC TODAY. ASSOCIATED NE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN COOLER (THAN TUE) TEMPERATURES...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
NEAR H85 SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CIRRUS IN NW FLOW ALOFT GRAZING THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. H85-925 FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE IN THAT LAYER DRIFTS OFF
THE SC COAST...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND CREEP TOWARD THE YADKIN BY DAYBREAK.
BASED ON CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL PROGS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE SOON OR THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLEAR AND CONTINUED
NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH NEAR THE VA/NC COAST
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT
RIDGING ALOFT (TO NEAR 1028 MB) GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z THU SUPPORTIVE OF MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES - COOLEST EAST...NEARER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE PRECEDING SFC HIGH DRIFTS TOWARD
BERMUDA... AND THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DOWNSTREAM OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST - FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONSEQUENTLY RESULT
IN A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE STRATOCUMULUS CENTERED AROUND H85
(REFERENCED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION) MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THU NIGHT WILL CAUSE CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH MILD AND BREEZY AT TIMES
CONDITIONS...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT THE RELATIVE DEEPEST SATURATION - IN THE LOWEST 5-6 THOUSAND
FT AND ENTIRELY ABOVE FREEZING - OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A
SMATTERING OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO QPF PER THE 00Z MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGIN LATE THURSDAY WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE EARLY ON FRIDAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO REACH 1390M FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT MAY RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-40MPH IF MIXING IS A DEEP AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DCVA AND COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TREND SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG FRONT AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
STILL A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE....BUT IN GENERAL THE
FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG
WESTERLIES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 40KT...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
POOR DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD LIMIT THE FRONTAL CONVECTION TO TO MAINLY
SHOWERS.  WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY..WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY HOLD IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY KNOCKED BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROP TO 1320M.  THIS SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME FROST.  A WARM
UP WILL THEN ENSUE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.  MOST OF
EARLY NEXT SHOULD BE DRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WE
REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HIGHS WILL
BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AT 0730Z...AND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF NC THROUGH 12Z.
NORTH TO NE SFC WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BOTH
IN THE FEW HOUR WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AGAIN AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING BETWEEN 12-15Z...MAINLY EAST OF 1-95.

WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL
DOT THE SKY THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE PARENT S/W
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. CLEARING AND
HEIGHT RISES IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW...AND CAUSE A
1018 MB SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN OH TO STRENGTHEN A FEW MB AS IT
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC TODAY. ASSOCIATED NE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN COOLER (THAN TUE) TEMPERATURES...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
NEAR H85 SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CIRRUS IN NW FLOW ALOFT GRAZING THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. H85-925 FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE IN THAT LAYER DRIFTS OFF
THE SC COAST...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND CREEP TOWARD THE YADKIN BY DAYBREAK.
BASED ON CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL PROGS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE SOON OR THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLEAR AND CONTINUED
NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH NEAR THE VA/NC COAST
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT
RIDGING ALOFT (TO NEAR 1028 MB) GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z THU SUPPORTIVE OF MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES - COOLEST EAST...NEARER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY...

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE PRECEDING SFC HIGH DRIFTS TOWARD
BERMUDA... AND THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DOWNSTREAM OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST - FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONSEQUENTLY RESULT
IN A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE STRATOCUMULUS CENTERED AROUND H85
(REFERENCED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION) MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THU NIGHT WILL CAUSE CLOUDS/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...WITH MILD AND BREEZY AT TIMES
CONDITIONS...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT THE RELATIVE DEEPEST SATURATION - IN THE LOWEST 5-6 THOUSAND
FT AND ENTIRELY ABOVE FREEZING - OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A
SMATTERING OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO QPF PER THE 00Z MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGIN LATE THURSDAY WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE EARLY ON FRIDAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO REACH 1390M FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT MAY RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-40MPH IF MIXING IS A DEEP AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DCVA AND COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TREND SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG FRONT AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
STILL A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE....BUT IN GENERAL THE
FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG
WESTERLIES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 40KT...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
POOR DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD LIMIT THE FRONTAL CONVECTION TO TO MAINLY
SHOWERS.  WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY..WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY HOLD IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY KNOCKED BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROP TO 1320M.  THIS SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME FROST.  A WARM
UP WILL THEN ENSUE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.  MOST OF
EARLY NEXT SHOULD BE DRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WE
REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HIGHS WILL
BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010749
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AT 0730Z...AND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF NC THROUGH 12Z.
NORTH TO NE SFC WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BOTH
IN THE FEW HOUR WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AGAIN AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING BETWEEN 12-15Z...MAINLY EAST OF 1-95.

WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL
DOT THE SKY THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE PARENT S/W
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. CLEARING AND
HEIGHT RISES IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW...AND CAUSE A
1018 MB SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN OH TO STRENGTHEN A FEW MB AS IT
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC TODAY. ASSOCIATED NE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN COOLER (THAN TUE) TEMPERATURES...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
NEAR H85 SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CIRRUS IN NW FLOW ALOFT GRAZING THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. H85-925 FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE IN THAT LAYER DRIFTS OFF
THE SC COAST...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND CREEP TOWARD THE YADKIN BY DAYBREAK.
BASED ON CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL PROGS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE SOON OR THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLEAR AND CONTINUED
NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH NEAR THE VA/NC COAST
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT
RIDGING ALOFT (TO NEAR 1028 MB) GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z THU SUPPORTIVE OF MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES - COOLEST EAST...NEARER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGIN LATE THURSDAY WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE EARLY ON FRIDAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO REACH 1390M FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT MAY RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-40MPH IF MIXING IS A DEEP AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DCVA AND COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TREND SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG FRONT AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
STILL A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE....BUT IN GENERAL THE
FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG
WESTERLIES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 40KT...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
POOR DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD LIMIT THE FRONTAL CONVECTION TO TO MAINLY
SHOWERS.  WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY..WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY HOLD IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY KNOCKED BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROP TO 1320M.  THIS SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME FROST.  A WARM
UP WILL THEN ENSUE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.  MOST OF
EARLY NEXT SHOULD BE DRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WE
REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HIGHS WILL
BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010749
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AT 0730Z...AND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF NC THROUGH 12Z.
NORTH TO NE SFC WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BOTH
IN THE FEW HOUR WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AGAIN AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING BETWEEN 12-15Z...MAINLY EAST OF 1-95.

WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL
DOT THE SKY THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE PARENT S/W
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. CLEARING AND
HEIGHT RISES IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW...AND CAUSE A
1018 MB SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN OH TO STRENGTHEN A FEW MB AS IT
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC TODAY. ASSOCIATED NE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN COOLER (THAN TUE) TEMPERATURES...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
NEAR H85 SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CIRRUS IN NW FLOW ALOFT GRAZING THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. H85-925 FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE IN THAT LAYER DRIFTS OFF
THE SC COAST...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND CREEP TOWARD THE YADKIN BY DAYBREAK.
BASED ON CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL PROGS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE SOON OR THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLEAR AND CONTINUED
NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH NEAR THE VA/NC COAST
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT
RIDGING ALOFT (TO NEAR 1028 MB) GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z THU SUPPORTIVE OF MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES - COOLEST EAST...NEARER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGIN LATE THURSDAY WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE EARLY ON FRIDAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO REACH 1390M FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT MAY RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-40MPH IF MIXING IS A DEEP AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DCVA AND COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TREND SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG FRONT AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
STILL A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE....BUT IN GENERAL THE
FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG
WESTERLIES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 40KT...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
POOR DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD LIMIT THE FRONTAL CONVECTION TO TO MAINLY
SHOWERS.  WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY..WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY HOLD IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY KNOCKED BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROP TO 1320M.  THIS SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME FROST.  A WARM
UP WILL THEN ENSUE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.  MOST OF
EARLY NEXT SHOULD BE DRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WE
REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HIGHS WILL
BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010749
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AT 0730Z...AND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF NC THROUGH 12Z.
NORTH TO NE SFC WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BOTH
IN THE FEW HOUR WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AGAIN AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING BETWEEN 12-15Z...MAINLY EAST OF 1-95.

WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL
DOT THE SKY THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE PARENT S/W
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. CLEARING AND
HEIGHT RISES IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW...AND CAUSE A
1018 MB SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN OH TO STRENGTHEN A FEW MB AS IT
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC TODAY. ASSOCIATED NE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN COOLER (THAN TUE) TEMPERATURES...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
NEAR H85 SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CIRRUS IN NW FLOW ALOFT GRAZING THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. H85-925 FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE IN THAT LAYER DRIFTS OFF
THE SC COAST...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND CREEP TOWARD THE YADKIN BY DAYBREAK.
BASED ON CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL PROGS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE SOON OR THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLEAR AND CONTINUED
NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH NEAR THE VA/NC COAST
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT
RIDGING ALOFT (TO NEAR 1028 MB) GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z THU SUPPORTIVE OF MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES - COOLEST EAST...NEARER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGIN LATE THURSDAY WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE EARLY ON FRIDAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO REACH 1390M FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT MAY RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-40MPH IF MIXING IS A DEEP AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DCVA AND COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TREND SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG FRONT AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
STILL A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE....BUT IN GENERAL THE
FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG
WESTERLIES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 40KT...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
POOR DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD LIMIT THE FRONTAL CONVECTION TO TO MAINLY
SHOWERS.  WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY..WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY HOLD IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY KNOCKED BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROP TO 1320M.  THIS SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME FROST.  A WARM
UP WILL THEN ENSUE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.  MOST OF
EARLY NEXT SHOULD BE DRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WE
REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HIGHS WILL
BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010749
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AT 0730Z...AND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF NC THROUGH 12Z.
NORTH TO NE SFC WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BOTH
IN THE FEW HOUR WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AGAIN AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING BETWEEN 12-15Z...MAINLY EAST OF 1-95.

WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL
DOT THE SKY THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE PARENT S/W
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. CLEARING AND
HEIGHT RISES IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW...AND CAUSE A
1018 MB SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN OH TO STRENGTHEN A FEW MB AS IT
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC TODAY. ASSOCIATED NE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN COOLER (THAN TUE) TEMPERATURES...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
NEAR H85 SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CIRRUS IN NW FLOW ALOFT GRAZING THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. H85-925 FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE IN THAT LAYER DRIFTS OFF
THE SC COAST...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND CREEP TOWARD THE YADKIN BY DAYBREAK.
BASED ON CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL PROGS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE SOON OR THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLEAR AND CONTINUED
NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH NEAR THE VA/NC COAST
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT
RIDGING ALOFT (TO NEAR 1028 MB) GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z THU SUPPORTIVE OF MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES - COOLEST EAST...NEARER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGIN LATE THURSDAY WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE EARLY ON FRIDAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO REACH 1390M FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT MAY RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-40MPH IF MIXING IS A DEEP AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS FORCING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DCVA AND COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TREND SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG FRONT AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
STILL A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE....BUT IN GENERAL THE
FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG
WESTERLIES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 40KT...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
POOR DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD LIMIT THE FRONTAL CONVECTION TO TO MAINLY
SHOWERS.  WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY..WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY HOLD IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY KNOCKED BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROP TO 1320M.  THIS SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME FROST.  A WARM
UP WILL THEN ENSUE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.  MOST OF
EARLY NEXT SHOULD BE DRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WE
REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM SECTOR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HIGHS WILL
BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AT 0730Z...AND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF NC THROUGH 12Z.
NORTH TO NE SFC WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BOTH
IN THE FEW HOUR WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND AGAIN AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING BETWEEN 12-15Z...MAINLY EAST OF 1-95.

WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF ALTOCUMULUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL
DOT THE SKY THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE PARENT S/W
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. CLEARING AND
HEIGHT RISES IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW...AND CAUSE A
1018 MB SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN OH TO STRENGTHEN A FEW MB AS IT
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS VA/NC TODAY. ASSOCIATED NE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN COOLER (THAN TUE) TEMPERATURES...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
NEAR H85 SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY SO TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CIRRUS IN NW FLOW ALOFT GRAZING THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. H85-925 FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTI-CYCLONE IN THAT LAYER DRIFTS OFF
THE SC COAST...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND CREEP TOWARD THE YADKIN BY DAYBREAK.
BASED ON CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL PROGS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE SOON OR THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLEAR AND CONTINUED
NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH NEAR THE VA/NC COAST
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BENEATH THE SUBSIDENT
RIDGING ALOFT (TO NEAR 1028 MB) GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z THU SUPPORTIVE OF MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES - COOLEST EAST...NEARER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 010723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT AND QUIET SPRING DAY
ASIDE FROM POLLEN STORMS EJECTING FROM LOCAL PINES. UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AND TENNESSEE VLY WILL
SEND OCCASIONAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD OF NE SC AND SE NC THIS MORNING. A
DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S OVER
INTERIOR SE NC TO THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS INLAND NE SC. NNE WIND
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND COOLISH NEAR SHORE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CAP BEACHES AT MID 60S. CLEAR AND COOL OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW SETTLING DEEP IN THE 40S MOST LOCALITIES...UPPER 40S
BEACHES AND VERY SOUTHERN NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME VERY NICE EARLY-SPRING WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINES WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE NC COAST WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE
NW. THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED IN ITS LONGITUDINAL GAIN THANKS TO
INCREASING LONGWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND THUS MOST OF THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT TERM. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...WARM ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH THE RAISED
THICKNESSES WILL PRODUCE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH JUST A SCHC OF SHOWERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE MID 70S...WITH WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM AROUND 60 BOTH
NIGHTS...SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT...AS WARM SW WINDS PERSIST.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY. SOME TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEST FORCING BOTH AT JET LEVEL AND WITHIN ANY
PVA REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
TOTAL COLUMN SATURATION. LATEST SREF PLUMES SUGGEST VERY LITTLE QPF
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL LOWER POP JUST SLIGHTLY BUT
MAINTAIN CHC FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POP WILL BE IN THE NW
ZONES. TSTMS APPEAR UNLIKELY...AND EVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH 8AM SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY
MORNING...AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CWA LATE MORNING...WITH RAPID DRYING OCCURRING BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH QPF SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE LOWER QPF/LOWER POP GUIDANCE WHICH
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE BASED OFF LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND MARGINAL
COLUMN SATURATION. WILL WALK POP BACK DOWNWARD A BIT SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MAINTAIN LOW-CHC FOR THE DAY. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE CAROLINA SPRING WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. WHILE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT BELOW CLIMO...A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING AFTN SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINALS ONLY TO EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE N-NE BECOMING
LIGHT ENE-E BY 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTIONARY HEADLINE IN PLACE UNTIL 6 AM
FOR BLUSTERY WSW WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS AWAY FROM THE INSHORE
WATERS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NNE LATER THIS MORNING AS A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE 0-20NM WATERS. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FT
THIS AFTERNOON HIGHEST OFFSHORE WILL SETTLE TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT.
WITH DIMINISHING AND WEAKEN WINDS TO ENE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD THURSDAY
MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW...AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PINCH AND
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SW THURSDAY...AND THEN INCREASE IN SPEED
QUICKLY DURING FRIDAY. WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE E/SE...BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SW AND THEN CLIMB TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INCREASING
SW WINDS...RISING FROM 2-4 FT THURSDAY...TO 4-7 FT FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD DUE TO 20-25 KT SW WINDS AND SEAS
OF 4-7 FT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY
AFTN...TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NW AND THEN NE WITH DECREASING
SPEEDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP ON THE DECREASING
WINDS AND BECOME 2- 4 FT BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE WATERS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A
VERY WEAK GRADIENT WHICH KEEPS WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SEAS ONLY 1-2 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 010723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT AND QUIET SPRING DAY
ASIDE FROM POLLEN STORMS EJECTING FROM LOCAL PINES. UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AND TENNESSEE VLY WILL
SEND OCCASIONAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD OF NE SC AND SE NC THIS MORNING. A
DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE SHOULD BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S OVER
INTERIOR SE NC TO THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS INLAND NE SC. NNE WIND
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND COOLISH NEAR SHORE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CAP BEACHES AT MID 60S. CLEAR AND COOL OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW SETTLING DEEP IN THE 40S MOST LOCALITIES...UPPER 40S
BEACHES AND VERY SOUTHERN NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME VERY NICE EARLY-SPRING WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINES WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE NC COAST WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE
NW. THIS FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED IN ITS LONGITUDINAL GAIN THANKS TO
INCREASING LONGWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND THUS MOST OF THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT TERM. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...WARM ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH THE RAISED
THICKNESSES WILL PRODUCE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH JUST A SCHC OF SHOWERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE MID 70S...WITH WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM AROUND 60 BOTH
NIGHTS...SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT...AS WARM SW WINDS PERSIST.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY. SOME TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEST FORCING BOTH AT JET LEVEL AND WITHIN ANY
PVA REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
TOTAL COLUMN SATURATION. LATEST SREF PLUMES SUGGEST VERY LITTLE QPF
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL LOWER POP JUST SLIGHTLY BUT
MAINTAIN CHC FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POP WILL BE IN THE NW
ZONES. TSTMS APPEAR UNLIKELY...AND EVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH 8AM SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY
MORNING...AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CWA LATE MORNING...WITH RAPID DRYING OCCURRING BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH QPF SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE LOWER QPF/LOWER POP GUIDANCE WHICH
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE BASED OFF LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND MARGINAL
COLUMN SATURATION. WILL WALK POP BACK DOWNWARD A BIT SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MAINTAIN LOW-CHC FOR THE DAY. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE CAROLINA SPRING WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. WHILE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT BELOW CLIMO...A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING AFTN SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINALS ONLY TO EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE N-NE BECOMING
LIGHT ENE-E BY 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTIONARY HEADLINE IN PLACE UNTIL 6 AM
FOR BLUSTERY WSW WINDS AND 4-5 FOOT SEAS AWAY FROM THE INSHORE
WATERS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NNE LATER THIS MORNING AS A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE 0-20NM WATERS. NO TSTMS OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FT
THIS AFTERNOON HIGHEST OFFSHORE WILL SETTLE TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT.
WITH DIMINISHING AND WEAKEN WINDS TO ENE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD THURSDAY
MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW...AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PINCH AND
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SW THURSDAY...AND THEN INCREASE IN SPEED
QUICKLY DURING FRIDAY. WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE E/SE...BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SW AND THEN CLIMB TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INCREASING
SW WINDS...RISING FROM 2-4 FT THURSDAY...TO 4-7 FT FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD DUE TO 20-25 KT SW WINDS AND SEAS
OF 4-7 FT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY
AFTN...TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NW AND THEN NE WITH DECREASING
SPEEDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP ON THE DECREASING
WINDS AND BECOME 2- 4 FT BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE WATERS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A
VERY WEAK GRADIENT WHICH KEEPS WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH
SEAS ONLY 1-2 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 010629
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
229 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NC TODAY
AND TONIGHT, THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 010629
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
229 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NC TODAY
AND TONIGHT, THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 010629
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
229 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NC TODAY
AND TONIGHT, THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010629
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
229 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NC TODAY
AND TONIGHT, THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010623
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 010623
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010623
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010623
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010623
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010623
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
223 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE MHX CWA, AND RESIDES FROM
NEAR GOLDSBORO EAST TO RODANTHE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS CAPE FEAR.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN NC. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER EASTERN
NC TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AND PERHAPS
DECOUPLE TO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MOS BLEND KEEPS
MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT 36-39 DEGREES F INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST/OBX. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WOULD ARGUE FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS BLEND, SO HAVE INDICATED 35-37 F INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN THOUGH WITH TEMPS FALLING 35-36 F INLAND, CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION IN GRIDS FOR NOW BUT DAY SHIFT MAY REVISIT AND
ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY GUST NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF
HATTERAS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM NEAR BAYBORO EAST TO
OFF CAPE HATTERAS/DIAMOND SHOALS, MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT/6 FT ALL WATERS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...

A COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER
VIRGINIA AREA AS THERE IS A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALL NORTH OF THE VA BORDER
AT THIS TIME. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTING
ALLOWING MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE NMM VERSION OF THE WRF IS STILL SHOWING
THIS A LITTLE BIT BUT THE ARW VERSION AND THE OTHER CAMS ARE DRY.
MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT
OTHERWISE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT. IN
FACT...LOOKING AT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING
TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...

A COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER
VIRGINIA AREA AS THERE IS A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALL NORTH OF THE VA BORDER
AT THIS TIME. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTING
ALLOWING MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE NMM VERSION OF THE WRF IS STILL SHOWING
THIS A LITTLE BIT BUT THE ARW VERSION AND THE OTHER CAMS ARE DRY.
MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT
OTHERWISE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT. IN
FACT...LOOKING AT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING
TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...

A COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER
VIRGINIA AREA AS THERE IS A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALL NORTH OF THE VA BORDER
AT THIS TIME. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTING
ALLOWING MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE NMM VERSION OF THE WRF IS STILL SHOWING
THIS A LITTLE BIT BUT THE ARW VERSION AND THE OTHER CAMS ARE DRY.
MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT
OTHERWISE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT. IN
FACT...LOOKING AT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING
TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...

A COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER
VIRGINIA AREA AS THERE IS A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALL NORTH OF THE VA BORDER
AT THIS TIME. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTING
ALLOWING MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE NMM VERSION OF THE WRF IS STILL SHOWING
THIS A LITTLE BIT BUT THE ARW VERSION AND THE OTHER CAMS ARE DRY.
MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT
OTHERWISE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT. IN
FACT...LOOKING AT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING
TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...

A COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER
VIRGINIA AREA AS THERE IS A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALL NORTH OF THE VA BORDER
AT THIS TIME. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTING
ALLOWING MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE NMM VERSION OF THE WRF IS STILL SHOWING
THIS A LITTLE BIT BUT THE ARW VERSION AND THE OTHER CAMS ARE DRY.
MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT
OTHERWISE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT. IN
FACT...LOOKING AT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING
TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NC THIS MORNING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...

A COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER
VIRGINIA AREA AS THERE IS A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALL NORTH OF THE VA BORDER
AT THIS TIME. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTING
ALLOWING MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE NMM VERSION OF THE WRF IS STILL SHOWING
THIS A LITTLE BIT BUT THE ARW VERSION AND THE OTHER CAMS ARE DRY.
MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT
OTHERWISE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT. IN
FACT...LOOKING AT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS MAY HELP TO BRING
TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT IN
GENERAL EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WITH
TEMPORARY GUSTINESS INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
HAD ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAY AS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE BETWEEN 0730-08Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS...AND GUSTS...THROUGH AROUND 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A
BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED 8-11 THOUSAND FT CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT INT AND GSO.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME...ALSO MAINLY
AT INT AND GSO. WARM AND WINDY FRI...WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS NEAR 20
KTS AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KILM 010535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
THIS EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JETTING. THUS...IT SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT
ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL LIFT
MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINALS ONLY TO EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE N-NE BECOMING
LIGHT ENE-E BY 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BRIEFLY
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS
THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS...UP TO
15 TO 20 KT TO PERSIST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N
WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND
SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 010535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
THIS EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JETTING. THUS...IT SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT
ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL LIFT
MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINALS ONLY TO EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE N-NE BECOMING
LIGHT ENE-E BY 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BRIEFLY
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS
THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS...UP TO
15 TO 20 KT TO PERSIST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N
WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND
SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 010535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
THIS EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JETTING. THUS...IT SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT
ENOUGH MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL LIFT
MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINALS ONLY TO EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE N-NE BECOMING
LIGHT ENE-E BY 23Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BRIEFLY
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS
THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS...UP TO
15 TO 20 KT TO PERSIST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N
WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND
SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 010254
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
THIS EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JETTING. THUS...IT SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE
THAT ENOUGH MOISTNEING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL
LIFT MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF KFLO/KMYR TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BRIEFLY
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S
ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W
WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT TO PERSIST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT TO NW AND N WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT WITH 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AND SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 010254
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH ALONG A BOUNDARY
THIS EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JETTING. THUS...IT SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE
THAT ENOUGH MOISTNEING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL
LIFT MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF KFLO/KMYR TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BRIEFLY
TIGHTENED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S
ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W
WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT TO PERSIST. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT TO NW AND N WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FT WITH 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AND SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KT...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010208
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
STATES AND OFF THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOC WITH THE FRONT THUS DRY CONDS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY
GUST UPWARDS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY....DRY AND SUNNY FOR WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM N BEHIND THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
WED WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 60S INLAND WESTERN AREAS TO THE 50S ACRS ERN SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH
OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED WITH NLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15
KT AFT 12Z.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS AND OVERNIGHT. SCA CONTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FT FOR THE SRN
AND CNTRL OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW...THEN SEAS CONT ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL NLY WIND SHIFT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC/DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/TL
MARINE...HSA/JAC/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 010208
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
STATES AND OFF THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOC WITH THE FRONT THUS DRY CONDS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY
GUST UPWARDS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY....DRY AND SUNNY FOR WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM N BEHIND THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
WED WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 60S INLAND WESTERN AREAS TO THE 50S ACRS ERN SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH
OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED WITH NLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15
KT AFT 12Z.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS AND OVERNIGHT. SCA CONTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FT FOR THE SRN
AND CNTRL OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW...THEN SEAS CONT ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL NLY WIND SHIFT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC/DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/TL
MARINE...HSA/JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010056
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
856 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE ALONG OR JUST IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO AT
TIME BROKEN CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 7 KFT RANGE. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER... A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 2-3 KFT (MOSTLY SCATTERED AT BEST) CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 12-
16Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES (KRDU/KRWI/KFAY) AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS... BUT CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010056
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
856 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE ALONG OR JUST IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO AT
TIME BROKEN CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 7 KFT RANGE. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER... A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 2-3 KFT (MOSTLY SCATTERED AT BEST) CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 12-
16Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES (KRDU/KRWI/KFAY) AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS... BUT CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010056
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
856 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE ALONG OR JUST IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO AT
TIME BROKEN CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 7 KFT RANGE. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER... A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 2-3 KFT (MOSTLY SCATTERED AT BEST) CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 12-
16Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES (KRDU/KRWI/KFAY) AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS... BUT CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010056
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
856 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE ALONG OR JUST IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT... EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO AT
TIME BROKEN CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 7 KFT RANGE. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN GENERAL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER... A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 2-3 KFT (MOSTLY SCATTERED AT BEST) CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 12-
16Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES (KRDU/KRWI/KFAY) AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS... BUT CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SUB-VFR CIGS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 010023
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
823 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH THIS EVE...IT
SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT ENOUGH MOISTNEING OF THE COLUMN WILL
OCCUR PRIOR FRONTAL LIFT MOVING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO PERHAPS BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF KFLO/KMYR TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N WITH THE
APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVE
THROUGH AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
WITH 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AND SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND A RECENTLY
PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...VEERING TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4
FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 010023
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
823 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH THIS EVE...IT
SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT ENOUGH MOISTNEING OF THE COLUMN WILL
OCCUR PRIOR FRONTAL LIFT MOVING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO PERHAPS BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.

THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF KFLO/KMYR TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N WITH THE
APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVE
THROUGH AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
WITH 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AND SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND A RECENTLY
PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...VEERING TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4
FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 312213
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
613 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WELL NORTH OF
EASTERN NC. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOC WITH THE FRONT THUS DRY
CONDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY....DRY AND SUNNY FOR WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM N BEHIND THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
WED WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 60S INLAND WESTERN AREAS TO THE 50S ACRS ERN SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED WITH NLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 15 KT AFT 12Z.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON OBS WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH 09Z FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE ADJACENT
ALLIGATOR RIVER. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KNOTS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AND OVERNIGHT. SCA CONTS FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6 FT FOR THE SRN AND CNTRL OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW...THEN SEAS
CONT ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL NLY WIND SHIFT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC/DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/JAC/TL
MARINE...HSA/JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 311945
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WELL NORTH OF
EASTERN NC. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOC WITH THE FRONT THUS DRY
CONDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS LATE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY....DRY AND SUNNY FOR WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM N BEHIND THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
WED WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 60S INLAND WESTERN AREAS TO THE 50S ACRS ERN SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT
THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION
EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR WED WITH NLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AFT 12Z.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS AFTN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT OVERNIGHT. SCA CONTS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FT FOR
THE SRN AND CNTRL OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW...THEN SEAS CONT ABOVE
6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL NLY WIND SHIFT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 311945
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WELL NORTH OF
EASTERN NC. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOC WITH THE FRONT THUS DRY
CONDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS LATE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY....DRY AND SUNNY FOR WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM N BEHIND THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
WED WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 60S INLAND WESTERN AREAS TO THE 50S ACRS ERN SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED NIGHT INTO THUR...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WED NIGHT ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST BUT THINK TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROST MENTION ATTM. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THUR AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
PLEASANT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S BEACHES) WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...TRENDED DRY THU NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
SWINGS THROUGH BUT NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
THE SLGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES AND COULD BE WEAK FORCING ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONT. MAIN STORY FRIDAY THOUGH WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS
20-25 KT AND VERY WARM TEMPS AS MOST LOCALES CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S INLAND (UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES).

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FCST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH E NC THIS PERIOD. WARM AND
BREEZY FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA...WITH 31/12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC CMC/ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN
AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS VERY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SAT.
MAINTAINED THE 50 POPS WITH SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER WORDING DUE TO
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK SO NO SEVERE TS EXPECTED THOUGH STRONG SWRLY JET OVERNIGHT
FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ISO THUNDER EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
QUICKLY DRYING AFTER AROUND NOON SAT WITH FRONT RACING OFFSHORE
AND SKIES BECOMING SUNNY WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPR
60S/LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOWS UPR 30S/LOW
40S SAT NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 N OBX TO UPR 60S SW ZONES.
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STEADILY BUILDING HGTS AND 850MB
TEMPS PUSHES TEMPS BACK ABOVE CLIMO. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW ON TUE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT
THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION
EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR WED WITH NLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AFT 12Z.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. GUSTY
SW WINDS 15-25 KT ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
RETURNING BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE VFR WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS AFTN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT OVERNIGHT. SCA CONTS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FT FOR
THE SRN AND CNTRL OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW...THEN SEAS CONT ABOVE
6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL NLY WIND SHIFT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY AGAIN THUR NIGHT INTO SAT. SW WINDS 20-30 KT IN TIGHTENED
PRES GRAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PEAKING FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. THE SW WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND REMAIN GUSTY FIRST HALF
OF SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
PUSHING FRONT THROUGH...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CMC/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE BY 18Z SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8-11 FT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SW SFC WIND
THROUGH 23Z. THIS WARM FLOW WILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

TONIGHT...

A S/W CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
THOUGH DECENT SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER DOES PROVIDE
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER. BULK OF WRF MODELS AS WELL AS GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH NMM DOES DEPICT A
WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WRF
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER WRF MODELS DEPICT DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE OCCURRING BY 21-22Z OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL VA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22Z...AND
ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH A POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/SMALL CHANCE POP...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES...LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. SFC WINDS
WILL VEER FROM A SW TO A NLY DIRECTION WITH THE FROPA. THIS MIXING
WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...COOL SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE SOUTH END OF THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES. SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO VARY FROM AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW...TO LOW-MID 60S OVER THE NE COUNTIES.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. EXPECT
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PARENT HIGH (WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLEST). MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S WEST WHERE A RETURN FLOW MAY
SET-UP AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 311902
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DRY COLUMN AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S UP NORTH TO THE MID 50S
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE TO 3 TO 5 FT
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 311902
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DRY COLUMN AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S UP NORTH TO THE MID 50S
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE TO 3 TO 5 FT
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 311902
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DRY COLUMN AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S UP NORTH TO THE MID 50S
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE TO 3 TO 5 FT
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 311902
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DRY COLUMN AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN
COOLER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S UP NORTH TO THE MID 50S
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE TO 3 TO 5 FT
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
BEHIND A RECENTLY PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4 FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JDW



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311857
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311857
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311857
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311857
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY EARLY THU WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. 925-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU WITH PASSAGE OF THE 850
MB WARM FRONT TO OUR NE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW WINDS IN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT... ATTENDING THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
SW. THE NAM DEPICTS MORE MOISTURE AND THUS MORE CLOUDS THAN THE
GFS... BUT NONETHELESS THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A DAY OF INCREASING
CLOUDINESS (EARLIER NW AND MUCH LATER IN THE DAY SE)... AS PW VALUES
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT THE LOWER LEVEL SCT-BKN
STRATOCU ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY
SHALLOW... AND THE NEWEST NAM/GFS RUNS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT PATCHY
PRECIP AT BEST IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH LIFT MECHANISMS
LARGELY LIMITED TO WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER WRN NC AND VERY WEAK
DPVA... NO EXPECTED INSTABILITY... AND AGREEMENT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP THROUGH THU NIGHT... WILL CUT POPS TO JUST ISOLATED IN THE NW
AND FAR W ONLY LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI/SAT: CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR GETTING SOME RAINFALL ALONG
AND BEHIND AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER WRN HUDSON BAY EARLY FRI WILL ZIP THROUGH SE
CANADA FRI... WHILE A SEPARATE WAVE (AND ATTENDING 120+ KT UPPER
SPEED MAX) MOVES FROM CO/KS EARLY FRI THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
MIDATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI EVENING THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC BY SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
DRIER FOR FRI... WHEN WE`LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR... AND THIS
IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND AND NO
OBVIOUS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER... FEEL COMPELLED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FRI AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST... WITH A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 GIVEN MODEL MUCAPE PREDICTIONS OF MUCAPE
VALUES OVER 500 J/KG FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... AND 35-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP FRIDAY
EVENING AND REACH A MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT SHOULD INCLUDE POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW... ACCELERATING 850 MB SW FLOW TO
OVER 50 KTS... AND THE ARRIVAL OF DECENT (BUT NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 50-60%... HIGHEST NORTH... FRI NIGHT... MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA SAT MORNING... AND WILL RETAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS SEVERAL
HOURS SLOWER... AND IF IT COMES TO PASS... WILL MEAN MORE LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SAT MORNING. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT IMPROVING BUT COOLING WEATHER ON SAT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE
DROP IN THICKNESSES BACK TO JUST UNDER NORMAL WILL MEAN COOLER HIGHS
ON SAT IN THE 60S... STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT QUITE A DROP AFTER
FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SWIFTLY OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S WITH A STABLE AND DRY COLUMN YIELDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

FOR MON/TUE: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON... AND THE ONSET OF RETURN FLOW WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS MON BEFORE
BECOMING BROADLY FROM THE WSW ACROSS THE SRN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
PROMINENT TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS
WETTER EARLIER DUE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WHICH COULD EASILY BE A SPURIOUS ARTIFACT... AND WILL STICK WITH
VERY LOW OR NO POPS FOR MON AT THIS TIME. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN WITH A STEADY RISE IN RAIN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A LOWER LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. BUT THE LACK OF ANY FOCUS OR STRONG TRIGGER FOR
LIFT PRECLUDES GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT A TREND TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW




000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 311748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
148 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME NICE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN A
CLIPPER TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
COULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPER
TIGHTENS. HAVE BACKED OFF A FEW MPH HOWEVER. TONIGHT LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH SCATTERED SKIES
AND A NORTHEAST WIND...MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311708
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311708
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311708
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311708
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311708
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311708
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUSTS
25-30KTS THROUGH 23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 04Z-
10Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS ONLY EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 5000-8000FT...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MASS INTO
THE REGION...MAINTAINING THE VFR CONDITIONS. NLY SFC WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 12-15KTS EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN
VICINITY OF KFAY AND KRWI. OTHERWISE NLY SFC WINDS WILL BE 5-8KTS.

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 311606
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1206 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO INIT T/TD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS AFTN. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. UPR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT
FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...CURRENTLY LIGHT W-SW WINDS CURRENTLY ACRS
THE NRN COASTAL WATERS LGT/VRBL RMNDR AND SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4
FT ACRS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS
THIS AFTN ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN
ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE, BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25
KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SCA CONTS FOR
COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR
THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JBM/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 311606
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1206 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO INIT T/TD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS AFTN. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. UPR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT
FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...CURRENTLY LIGHT W-SW WINDS CURRENTLY ACRS
THE NRN COASTAL WATERS LGT/VRBL RMNDR AND SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4
FT ACRS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS
THIS AFTN ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN
ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE, BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25
KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SCA CONTS FOR
COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST
WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR
THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JBM/DAG




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1125 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND FT...AND A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI/GSB/FAY BETWEEN 01-06Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1125 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND FT...AND A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI/GSB/FAY BETWEEN 01-06Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1125 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND FT...AND A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI/GSB/FAY BETWEEN 01-06Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1125 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

WARM AND DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST-SE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ITO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH. -WSS

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE FROM AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT
A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB
100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES SCATTERED SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED
FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO
UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. -RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND FT...AND A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI/GSB/FAY BETWEEN 01-06Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1125 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPS 70-75 ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MINIMUM RH VALUES 20-28 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. AFTER 7PM...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 311441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1041 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY
WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE
LATER THIS MORNING. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 311441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1041 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY
WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE
LATER THIS MORNING. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 311441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1041 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY
WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE
LATER THIS MORNING. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 311441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1041 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...THE DAY HAS WARMED UP QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY
WHILE RETAINING EXPECTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS FAINT HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING. PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN INTO THE 2 FT RANGE
LATER THIS MORNING. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3
FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC LATE TODAY WILL BRING
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A
CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND 20 KT
WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW



000
FXUS62 KMHX 311405
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO INIT T/TD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT
THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION
EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS CURRENTLY ACRS THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS LGT/VRBL RMNDR AND SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT ACRS
THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS
MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN
SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-
FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JBM/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 311405
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...ONLY CHANGES TO INIT T/TD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT
THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION
EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SW WINDS CURRENTLY ACRS THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS LGT/VRBL RMNDR AND SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT ACRS
THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS
MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN
SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-
FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JBM/DAG




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311144
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
744 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

BENEATH A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ALOFT...A
CLIPPER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MORNING WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLIPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH...THEN CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING
MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CLIPPER LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS - STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 300-630 PM. WHILE
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF 00Z H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...STRONG AND INCREASINGLY WESTERLY (VEERING FROM SW) FLOW
IN THE H85-925 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER
ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE AIR MASS...WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S - WARMEST SW.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE
FROM AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES
SCATTERED SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS
OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT
DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND FT...AND A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI/GSB/FAY BETWEEN 01-06Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

IT WILL BE WARM TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT - LOWEST OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SW SFC WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH - STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN MARGINALLY STRONGER...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE
MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 3-630 PM.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311144
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
744 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

BENEATH A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ALOFT...A
CLIPPER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MORNING WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLIPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH...THEN CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING
MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CLIPPER LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS - STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 300-630 PM. WHILE
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF 00Z H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...STRONG AND INCREASINGLY WESTERLY (VEERING FROM SW) FLOW
IN THE H85-925 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER
ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE AIR MASS...WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S - WARMEST SW.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE
FROM AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES
SCATTERED SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS
OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT
DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-
30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND FT...AND A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI/GSB/FAY BETWEEN 01-06Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

IT WILL BE WARM TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT - LOWEST OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SW SFC WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH - STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN MARGINALLY STRONGER...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE
MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 3-630 PM.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 311116
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLED TO
CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LEADING TO PATCHY
FOG. ANY LOCALIZED FOG OCCURRENCE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 12/1230Z THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...LOCALIZED LIFR PERSISTING AT PGV DUE TO
FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 311116
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLED TO
CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LEADING TO PATCHY
FOG. ANY LOCALIZED FOG OCCURRENCE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 12/1230Z THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...LOCALIZED LIFR PERSISTING AT PGV DUE TO
FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 311116
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLED TO
CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LEADING TO PATCHY
FOG. ANY LOCALIZED FOG OCCURRENCE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 12/1230Z THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...LOCALIZED LIFR PERSISTING AT PGV DUE TO
FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 311116
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLED TO
CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LEADING TO PATCHY
FOG. ANY LOCALIZED FOG OCCURRENCE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 12/1230Z THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...LOCALIZED LIFR PERSISTING AT PGV DUE TO
FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KILM 311046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC



000
FXUS62 KILM 311046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC




000
FXUS62 KILM 311046
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...A WEST SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE PROFILES AND WINDS DO NOT FAVOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/JDW FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

BENEATH A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ALOFT...A
CLIPPER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MORNING WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLIPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH...THEN CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING
MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CLIPPER LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS - STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 300-630 PM. WHILE
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF 00Z H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...STRONG AND INCREASINGLY WESTERLY (VEERING FROM SW) FLOW
IN THE H85-925 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER
ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE AIR MASS...WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S - WARMEST SW.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE
FROM AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES
SCATTERED SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS
OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT
DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

IT WILL BE WARM TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT - LOWEST OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SW SFC WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH - STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN MARGINALLY STRONGER...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE
MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 3-630 PM.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 311045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

BENEATH A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ALOFT...A
CLIPPER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MORNING WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLIPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH...THEN CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING
MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CLIPPER LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS - STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 300-630 PM. WHILE
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF 00Z H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...STRONG AND INCREASINGLY WESTERLY (VEERING FROM SW) FLOW
IN THE H85-925 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER
ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE AIR MASS...WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S - WARMEST SW.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE
FROM AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES
SCATTERED SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS
OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT
DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

IT WILL BE WARM TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT - LOWEST OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SW SFC WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH - STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN MARGINALLY STRONGER...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE
MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 3-630 PM.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

BENEATH A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ALOFT...A
CLIPPER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MORNING WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLIPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH...THEN CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING
MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CLIPPER LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS - STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 300-630 PM. WHILE
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF 00Z H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...STRONG AND INCREASINGLY WESTERLY (VEERING FROM SW) FLOW
IN THE H85-925 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER
ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE AIR MASS...WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S - WARMEST SW.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE
FROM AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES
SCATTERED SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS
OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT
DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

IT WILL BE WARM TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT - LOWEST OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SW SFC WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH - STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN MARGINALLY STRONGER...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE
MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 3-630 PM.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

BENEATH A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ALOFT...A
CLIPPER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MORNING WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLIPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH...THEN CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING
MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CLIPPER LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS - STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 300-630 PM. WHILE
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF 00Z H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...STRONG AND INCREASINGLY WESTERLY (VEERING FROM SW) FLOW
IN THE H85-925 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER
ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE AIR MASS...WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S - WARMEST SW.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE
FROM AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES
SCATTERED SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS
OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT
DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

IT WILL BE WARM TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT - LOWEST OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SW SFC WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH - STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN MARGINALLY STRONGER...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE
MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 3-630 PM.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

BENEATH A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ALOFT...A
CLIPPER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MORNING WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLIPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH...THEN CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING
MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CLIPPER LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS - STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 300-630 PM. WHILE
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF 00Z H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...STRONG AND INCREASINGLY WESTERLY (VEERING FROM SW) FLOW
IN THE H85-925 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER
ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE AIR MASS...WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S - WARMEST SW.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE
FROM AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES
SCATTERED SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS
OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT
DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

IT WILL BE WARM TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT - LOWEST OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SW SFC WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH - STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN MARGINALLY STRONGER...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE
MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 3-630 PM.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

BENEATH A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ALOFT...A
CLIPPER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MORNING WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLIPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH...THEN CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING
MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CLIPPER LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS - STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 300-630 PM. WHILE
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF 00Z H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...STRONG AND INCREASINGLY WESTERLY (VEERING FROM SW) FLOW
IN THE H85-925 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER
ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE AIR MASS...WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S - WARMEST SW.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE
FROM AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES
SCATTERED SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS
OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT
DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

IT WILL BE WARM TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT - LOWEST OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY SW SFC WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH - STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN MARGINALLY STRONGER...A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE
MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 3-630 PM.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH



000
FXUS62 KILM 311005
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
605 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC




000
FXUS62 KILM 311005
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
605 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...JDW/MJC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 310837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHRT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHRT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 310837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHRT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310801
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

BENEATH A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW ALOFT...A
CLIPPER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MORNING WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CLIPPER LOW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH...THEN CROSSES CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING
MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE CLIPPER LOW AND LEE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STEADILY INCREASE AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 10-11 AM...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS - STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 300-630 PM. WHILE
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING OF 00Z H85 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...STRONG AND INCREASINGLY WESTERLY (VEERING FROM SW) FLOW
IN THE H85-925 LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER
ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE AIR MASS...WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S - WARMEST SW.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE EXCITEMENT...ASIDE
FROM AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS THIS EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS DO
DEPICT A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG) AT THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BETWEEN 850-800 MB...AND THE HIRES-NMM IN FACT INDICATES
SCATTERED SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 00-06Z.
HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT (ASIDE FROM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE) AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED...OR ASSOCIATED CUMULUS
OVERCOME BY ENTRAINMENT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE KEPT
DRY. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A 1020 MB OR SO SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S...PER PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1345 METERS AT 12Z
THU...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AS WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S. BACK ACROSS THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL MIX OF ANYTHING FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S WITH OUR NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS
COOLING DOWN QUICKEST CONSISTENT WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. WITH A SETUP CONSISTENT WITH
POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...THE CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT STICK AROUND
ALL NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MOISTURE FETCH
LEADING INTO THE APPALACHIANS HAS PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENTS THAT SHOULD
HELP TO SET OFF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER VIRGINIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF CIRRUS WILL DRIFT DOWN
OVER OUR CWA BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME...MAYBE
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR. THIS COULD HELP TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL THE
NEED FOR A SMALL SHORT FUSE FROST ADVISORY EVEN IF SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS APPROACH THE MID-30S...IT WONT BE FOR VERY LONG AND
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

UPDATED SHORTLY...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AS WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S. BACK ACROSS THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL MIX OF ANYTHING FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S WITH OUR NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS
COOLING DOWN QUICKEST CONSISTENT WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. WITH A SETUP CONSISTENT WITH
POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...THE CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT STICK AROUND
ALL NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MOISTURE FETCH
LEADING INTO THE APPALACHIANS HAS PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENTS THAT SHOULD
HELP TO SET OFF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER VIRGINIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF CIRRUS WILL DRIFT DOWN
OVER OUR CWA BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME...MAYBE
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR. THIS COULD HELP TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL THE
NEED FOR A SMALL SHORT FUSE FROST ADVISORY EVEN IF SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS APPROACH THE MID-30S...IT WONT BE FOR VERY LONG AND
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

UPDATED SHORTLY...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN US WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING
SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
AID THE WEAKENING FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST WARM
ADVECTION BRINGS PW UP TOWARD 1.25".  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN GUIDANCE
TO SUPPORT THIS...SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 500 J/KG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS TO KICK
OFF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO PREFER TO KEEP POPS TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DESPITE STRONG SHEAR OF UP TO
40KT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY COME FROM SHOWERS GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES EXCEED 1380M.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
BY ABOUT 15-20M (COOLEST SUNDAY) AND SUGGEST HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
UPPER 60S MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RETURN FROM ON
MONDAY... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 310716
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300  AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...MJC/JDW



000
FXUS62 KILM 310716
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY AS FAINT HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A FRAIL
CLIPPER LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS EVENING.
PHASING STREAMS INTRODUCES DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT APPEARS GEOGRAPHICALLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN SHOWERS FOR NE SC. SEASONABLE
MILDNESS OVERNIGHT SINCE COOL-AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER
FRONT MOVES IN NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT LINGERED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SC ZONES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE HOWEVER AS NW FLOW ALOFT
COMBINES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO DRY THE COLUMN. COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL - AT BEST - SO A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS...WITH EVEN DIURNAL CU STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP BENEATH A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH MID 60S ON THE BEACHES. THURSDAY WILL
BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD JUST A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON RETURN FLOW...DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S
NORTHERN ZONES...LOW 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID/UPR
LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NW.
WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHORT TERM...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT ONLY AROUND
60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A RETURN TO BEAUTIFUL CAROLINA-
SPRING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-MARCH, BUT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER GUIDANCE...AND WAS TOO FAST WITH THE PAST RAINFALL EVENT.
WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS MOST OF FRIDAY DRY...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE A DECENT QPF EVENT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ATTM LOOKS MARGINAL WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY...WEAK FORCING DUE TO PVA...AND
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WOULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP HIGH-CHC POP FOR SATURDAY BUT LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A NICE DRY AIRMASS FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO BELOW CLIMO...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR NEXT
WEEK. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300  AM TUESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET. SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE MID-ATLC
LATE TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER DRY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE
NEED FOR A CAUTIONARY MARINE STATEMENT TONIGHT FOR 3-5 FT SEAS AND
20 KT WSW-W WINDS BEFORE A WIND-SHIFT TO EASING NORTH WIND INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AT
10-15 KTS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO AS WINDS EASE THEY WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE
AT AROUND 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER
FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST...AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND RISE AGAIN TO 10-15 KTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A
VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE BOOKENDS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 3-4 FT NE WIND WAVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND 3-4 FT SW WIND WAVES LATE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS GRADUALLY DURING FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MID-SATURDAY...BUT AHEAD OF IT SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WILL RISE TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WITH A
RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS. ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SHORT DUE TO THE
WINDS...HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR COLUMBUS...ROBESON...BLADEN...AND
PENDER COUNTIES. EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH 15-20 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
CONJUNCTION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL...BUT WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/JDW
FIRE WEATHER...MJC/JDW




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT
FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT
FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT
FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG



000
FXUS62 KMHX 310659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT
FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310551
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AS WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S. BACK ACROSS THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL MIX OF ANYTHING FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S WITH OUR NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS
COOLING DOWN QUICKEST CONSISTENT WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. WITH A SETUP CONSISTENT WITH
POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...THE CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT STICK AROUND
ALL NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MOISTURE FETCH
LEADING INTO THE APPALACHIANS HAS PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENTS THAT SHOULD
HELP TO SET OFF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER VIRGINIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF CIRRUS WILL DRIFT DOWN
OVER OUR CWA BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME...MAYBE
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR. THIS COULD HELP TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL THE
NEED FOR A SMALL SHORT FUSE FROST ADVISORY EVEN IF SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS APPROACH THE MID-30S...IT WONT BE FOR VERY LONG AND
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310551
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AS WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S. BACK ACROSS THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL MIX OF ANYTHING FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S WITH OUR NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS
COOLING DOWN QUICKEST CONSISTENT WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. WITH A SETUP CONSISTENT WITH
POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...THE CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT STICK AROUND
ALL NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MOISTURE FETCH
LEADING INTO THE APPALACHIANS HAS PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENTS THAT SHOULD
HELP TO SET OFF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER VIRGINIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF CIRRUS WILL DRIFT DOWN
OVER OUR CWA BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME...MAYBE
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR. THIS COULD HELP TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL THE
NEED FOR A SMALL SHORT FUSE FROST ADVISORY EVEN IF SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS APPROACH THE MID-30S...IT WONT BE FOR VERY LONG AND
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310551
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AS WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S. BACK ACROSS THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL MIX OF ANYTHING FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S WITH OUR NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS
COOLING DOWN QUICKEST CONSISTENT WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. WITH A SETUP CONSISTENT WITH
POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...THE CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT STICK AROUND
ALL NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MOISTURE FETCH
LEADING INTO THE APPALACHIANS HAS PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENTS THAT SHOULD
HELP TO SET OFF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER VIRGINIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF CIRRUS WILL DRIFT DOWN
OVER OUR CWA BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME...MAYBE
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR. THIS COULD HELP TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL THE
NEED FOR A SMALL SHORT FUSE FROST ADVISORY EVEN IF SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS APPROACH THE MID-30S...IT WONT BE FOR VERY LONG AND
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310551
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AS WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S. BACK ACROSS THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL MIX OF ANYTHING FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S WITH OUR NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS
COOLING DOWN QUICKEST CONSISTENT WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. WITH A SETUP CONSISTENT WITH
POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...THE CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT STICK AROUND
ALL NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MOISTURE FETCH
LEADING INTO THE APPALACHIANS HAS PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENTS THAT SHOULD
HELP TO SET OFF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER VIRGINIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF CIRRUS WILL DRIFT DOWN
OVER OUR CWA BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME...MAYBE
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR. THIS COULD HELP TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL THE
NEED FOR A SMALL SHORT FUSE FROST ADVISORY EVEN IF SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS APPROACH THE MID-30S...IT WONT BE FOR VERY LONG AND
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310551
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH VA AND NC
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AS WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S. BACK ACROSS THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL MIX OF ANYTHING FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S WITH OUR NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS
COOLING DOWN QUICKEST CONSISTENT WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. WITH A SETUP CONSISTENT WITH
POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...THE CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT STICK AROUND
ALL NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MOISTURE FETCH
LEADING INTO THE APPALACHIANS HAS PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENTS THAT SHOULD
HELP TO SET OFF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER VIRGINIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF CIRRUS WILL DRIFT DOWN
OVER OUR CWA BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME...MAYBE
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR. THIS COULD HELP TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL THE
NEED FOR A SMALL SHORT FUSE FROST ADVISORY EVEN IF SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS APPROACH THE MID-30S...IT WONT BE FOR VERY LONG AND
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF FLEETING AND SHALLOW FOG AT RWI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER 14Z...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 THOUSAND
FT...AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO WNW...WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY ONE OWING TO BOTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER NC...HOWEVER...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR RWI AND GSB BETWEEN 01-05Z.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI...PARTICULARLY
AT INT AND GSO...FOLLOWED BY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 310530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR/8
FIRE WEATHER...SRP



000
FXUS62 KILM 310530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR/8
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR/8
FIRE WEATHER...SRP



000
FXUS62 KILM 310530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS MINIMIZING AROUND SUNRISE THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY
AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z. LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KFLO/KLBT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR/8
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP



000
FXUS62 KILM 310301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP



000
FXUS62 KILM 310301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S VERY NEAR
THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE...PASSING N OF THE AREA...MAY BRING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED AND SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...FROM WNW TO N OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF REINFORCING BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER...
REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS HANGING
ON ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310214
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...A WASHED OUT FRONT IS CROSSING RALEIGH NOW
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST...ALTHOUGH A WINDSHIFT IS ALL
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
MAY INCREASE A BIT AS A FRONT NEARS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DROP. THUS
GIVEN BUOY DATA FROM NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE DROPPED
SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE KEPT THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT SOME 6 FT SETS MAY STILL BE LINGERING FURTHER
OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE FRONT CROSSES WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY
HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA
FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/LEP
MARINE...CCG/RF/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310214
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...A WASHED OUT FRONT IS CROSSING RALEIGH NOW
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST...ALTHOUGH A WINDSHIFT IS ALL
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
MAY INCREASE A BIT AS A FRONT NEARS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DROP. THUS
GIVEN BUOY DATA FROM NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE DROPPED
SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE KEPT THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT SOME 6 FT SETS MAY STILL BE LINGERING FURTHER
OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE FRONT CROSSES WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY
HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA
FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/LEP
MARINE...CCG/RF/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...RF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310212
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1012 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AS WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S. BACK ACROSS THE TRIAD...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL MIX OF ANYTHING FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S WITH OUR NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS
COOLING DOWN QUICKEST CONSISTENT WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. WITH A SETUP CONSISTENT WITH
POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS...THE CLEAR SKIES MAY NOT STICK AROUND
ALL NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE MOISTURE FETCH
LEADING INTO THE APPALACHIANS HAS PLENTY OF ENHANCEMENTS THAT SHOULD
HELP TO SET OFF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER VIRGINIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF CIRRUS WILL DRIFT DOWN
OVER OUR CWA BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PLUME...MAYBE
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR. THIS COULD HELP TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL THE
NEED FOR A SMALL SHORT FUSE FROST ADVISORY EVEN IF SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS APPROACH THE MID-30S...IT WONT BE FOR VERY LONG AND
IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. EXPECT GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
WHILE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT... WITH PERHAPS A SOME HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF PATCHY MVFR
VISBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR AND NEAR CALM/TO CALM WINDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION EVEN AT FOG PRONE
KRWI.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING... WITH GUSTS IN THE 23 TO 28 KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH BASES 5-7 KFT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATE THURSDAY...AND
MORE SO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
(SUB VFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS) WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310040
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
839 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN A L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SFC
FRONT WAS EXITING OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ON ITS HEELS WAS A
SLIVER OF DRIER AIR...AIDING TO DIMINISH CLOUD COVERAGE. PERIODS OF
SUN HAVE HELPED TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE WEST. SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TREND OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO GLIDE SEWD TONIGHT
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS LATE NIGHT. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT
ACROSS VA WHILE THE SOUTHERN EDGE SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CURRENTLY HAVE CLOUD COVERAGE TOPPING OUT NEAR 40
PERCENT ACROSS THE NW. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD PER
SATELLITE TRENDS LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. IF IT APPEARS
THAT CIRRUS WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE/THICKER THAN CURRENT
THINKING...THEN MAY NEED TO ADJUST MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY LIGHT
FROST TO DEVELOP. THIS OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SPOTTY SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
WHILE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT... WITH PERHAPS A SOME HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF PATCHY MVFR
VISBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR AND NEAR CALM/TO CALM WINDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION EVEN AT FOG PRONE
KRWI.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING... WITH GUSTS IN THE 23 TO 28 KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH BASES 5-7 KFT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATE THURSDAY...AND
MORE SO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
(SUB VFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS) WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310040
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
839 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN A L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SFC
FRONT WAS EXITING OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ON ITS HEELS WAS A
SLIVER OF DRIER AIR...AIDING TO DIMINISH CLOUD COVERAGE. PERIODS OF
SUN HAVE HELPED TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE WEST. SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TREND OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO GLIDE SEWD TONIGHT
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS LATE NIGHT. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT
ACROSS VA WHILE THE SOUTHERN EDGE SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CURRENTLY HAVE CLOUD COVERAGE TOPPING OUT NEAR 40
PERCENT ACROSS THE NW. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD PER
SATELLITE TRENDS LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. IF IT APPEARS
THAT CIRRUS WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE/THICKER THAN CURRENT
THINKING...THEN MAY NEED TO ADJUST MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY LIGHT
FROST TO DEVELOP. THIS OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SPOTTY SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
WHILE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT... WITH PERHAPS A SOME HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF PATCHY MVFR
VISBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR AND NEAR CALM/TO CALM WINDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION EVEN AT FOG PRONE
KRWI.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING... WITH GUSTS IN THE 23 TO 28 KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH BASES 5-7 KFT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATE THURSDAY...AND
MORE SO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
(SUB VFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS) WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310040
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
839 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN A L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SFC
FRONT WAS EXITING OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ON ITS HEELS WAS A
SLIVER OF DRIER AIR...AIDING TO DIMINISH CLOUD COVERAGE. PERIODS OF
SUN HAVE HELPED TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE WEST. SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TREND OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO GLIDE SEWD TONIGHT
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS LATE NIGHT. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT
ACROSS VA WHILE THE SOUTHERN EDGE SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CURRENTLY HAVE CLOUD COVERAGE TOPPING OUT NEAR 40
PERCENT ACROSS THE NW. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD PER
SATELLITE TRENDS LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. IF IT APPEARS
THAT CIRRUS WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE/THICKER THAN CURRENT
THINKING...THEN MAY NEED TO ADJUST MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY LIGHT
FROST TO DEVELOP. THIS OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SPOTTY SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
WHILE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT... WITH PERHAPS A SOME HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF PATCHY MVFR
VISBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR AND NEAR CALM/TO CALM WINDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION EVEN AT FOG PRONE
KRWI.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING... WITH GUSTS IN THE 23 TO 28 KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH BASES 5-7 KFT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATE THURSDAY...AND
MORE SO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
(SUB VFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS) WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 310040
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
839 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN A L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SFC
FRONT WAS EXITING OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ON ITS HEELS WAS A
SLIVER OF DRIER AIR...AIDING TO DIMINISH CLOUD COVERAGE. PERIODS OF
SUN HAVE HELPED TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE WEST. SHOULD
SEE SIMILAR TREND OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO GLIDE SEWD TONIGHT
THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS LATE NIGHT. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT
ACROSS VA WHILE THE SOUTHERN EDGE SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CURRENTLY HAVE CLOUD COVERAGE TOPPING OUT NEAR 40
PERCENT ACROSS THE NW. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD PER
SATELLITE TRENDS LATER THIS EVENING.

CURRENT HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. IF IT APPEARS
THAT CIRRUS WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE/THICKER THAN CURRENT
THINKING...THEN MAY NEED TO ADJUST MIN TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY LIGHT
FROST TO DEVELOP. THIS OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SPOTTY SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY...
THEN DRIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE BREEZY SW SFC WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE 23-27KTS RANGE SHOULD BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. THE BREEZY SW FLOW ALONG
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE
CHILLY START. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE EXITING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN LIMITED...SHOULD SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT MIXING DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: FAIRLY QUIET. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THICKNESSES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BUT RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW
LEVEL FLOW. A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTS HIGHS FROM
THE LOW 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
WED NIGHT... IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WSW... AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE SW. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU TOWARD MORNING
MAINLY IN THE WEST WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE... BUT WE DON`T ACHIEVE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS. WILL TREND
SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE WEST/SW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENOUGH CONTROL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH LIGHT WINDS (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NE) TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST... SO WILL HOLD ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WED NIGHT... WITH LOWS FROM 36 NE TO 45 SW.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: 925-800 MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AS LOW
LEVEL SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING THE
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS NC AND BRING A VEIL OF HIGHER CLOUDS TO AUGMENT THE LOWER
LEVEL SCT-BKN STRATOCU. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
MOISTURE IS OVERALL FAIRLY SHALLOW... AND THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONLY PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWA LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT... REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT CONSISTING MOSTLY OF WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS JUST A BIT FROM THE CURRENT VALUES BUT WILL RETAIN THE
GENERAL FLAVOR OF SLIGHT CHANCES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE WRN CWA. HIGHS 70-75 WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THICKNESSES. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRI-SAT: VERY GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THU--ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA--
AND A SEPARATE WAVE MOVING OUT OF UT/CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS/
OH VALLEY/MIDATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE ESE TO THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FRI EVENING... THEN THROUGH OUR AREA FRI
NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SAT. WE`LL HAVE AMPLE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF PRECEDING THE FRONT... AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX JUST
TO OUR NW ALONG WITH POTENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE PRECIP FRI NIGHT (ENTIRE CWA) INTO SAT MORNING (EASTERN
CWA). AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PRECIP... THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 500 J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE... WITH 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... AND THIS COULD FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL PLACE
20-30% CHANCE POPS FRI AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST)... MAINLY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT LULL WITH
LOWER POPS FOR A PORTION OF FRI EVENING... BEFORE FRONTAL PRECIP
RAMPS UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL DAYBREAK.
THE PRECIP AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL/SE CWA BEFORE
EXITING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON... AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP IN
THE SOUTHEAST SAT MORNING. THIS TIME FRAME MAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS... BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE
LION`S SHARE OF THE PRECIP TO FALL FRI NIGHT. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 30 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS WE`LL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL-RELATED PRECIP HOLDING TO OUR NW... SO
WE SHOULD SEE BALMY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WARM LOWS
OM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRI NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS SAT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH CLEARING NW TO SE.

FOR SAT NIGHT-MON: COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
BE 20-30 M BELOW NORMAL SUN MORNING AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OR CALM AND CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN NIGHT/MON PLACING US BACK IN THE
RETURN FLOW... WITH A LOW LEVEL FEED OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER TO GENERATE PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN LATE MON THAN THE
ECMWF... SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE POP IN THE WEST AT
THIS TIME. MODERATING HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 65-70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
WHILE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT... WITH PERHAPS A SOME HIGH
CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF PATCHY MVFR
VISBYS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR AND NEAR CALM/TO CALM WINDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
TUESDAY MORNING IN SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION EVEN AT FOG PRONE
KRWI.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY... WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING... WITH GUSTS IN THE 23 TO 28 KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH BASES 5-7 KFT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATE THURSDAY...AND
MORE SO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
(SUB VFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS) WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-
30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28
MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS.  WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS
FIRE WEATHER...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310008 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP



000
FXUS62 KILM 310002
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310002
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 310002
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
802 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS EVE AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR...DROPPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS LATE THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
SO.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR  TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
TO PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE
WESTERLIES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC
AIR MASSES WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE ILM CWA WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W
RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND
SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT
THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES
FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MON. THERE AFTER MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED
CLOSER TO CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WHEN REDUCED VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT SOME
TERMINALS.

SKIES WILL BE SCATTERED THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPO 4-6K CIGS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MOISTURE IS
VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREAD MINIMIZING
AROUND SUNRISE...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE OS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBYS. VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.

MAINLY SCATTERED SKIES/VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LIGHT S WINDS IN
THE MORNING BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FT AT BUOY 41108 AND 41013
RESPECTIVELY. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST AT MID EVE
AND WITH IT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO W AND
NW WITH A SHIFT TO THE N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF REINFORCING
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING
OF THE WIND. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT
AS THE SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN
AND QUICK RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE
A FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE
WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
FIRE WEATHER...SRP



000
FXUS62 KILM 302348 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AND COASTAL WATERS
COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 302348 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AND COASTAL WATERS
COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP




000
FXUS62 KILM 302348 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AND COASTAL WATERS
COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP



000
FXUS62 KILM 302348 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AND COASTAL WATERS
COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN REL