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000
FXUS62 KRAH 230000
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT WELL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...A 50-60KT LLJ WILL BRING PW OF OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH MID-MORNING... THOUGH PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RATHER DRY AND ONLY SLOW
MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER NC.  THE HEAVIER PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER
21Z...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

TEMPS... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
SUNDAY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST A
WEAK...STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  HIGHS IN
THE TRIAD MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE TEMPS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
EAST.  TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS
ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AS MODELS INDICATE...IS
UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR MANY AREAS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR SURFACE BASED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH THE
BETTER PUSH OF THE MARITIME AIR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AS MUCH AS
200-600 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST MLCAPE GENERATED BY ANY OPERATIONAL
NWP...WITH THE GFS/SREF SHOWING 100-300 J/KG...AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-70KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING SC
AND SOUTHEASTERN NC.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP WITH
STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK..BUT DPVA FROM
THE VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM EVEN BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD. -BLS

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST
TO NORTH/EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS


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000
FXUS62 KMHX 222350
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES MADE TO INIT T/TD. QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONT AS THE STRONG HIGH OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR THIS EVENING THEN OVERNIGHT EXPECT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES BOTH AT LOW LVLS
AND ALOFT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU THE EVENING WITH LOWS
INLAND DROPPING INTO THE 30S. OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND
CLOUDS INCREASE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT ESCPLY CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE AFTN.
MDLS SHOW PRECIP WTR VALUES SURGING FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH EARLY TO
1.75 INCHES LATE. STRONG ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY TO
CAT POPS FAR S TO CHC FAR N LATE. SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BECOME
IMPRESSIVE LATE...HOWEVER MDLS KEEP SFC BASED INSTAB S OF THE REGION
THRU SUN AFTN AND THIS SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY SVR WEATHER TIL
MAINLY AFTER 00Z. DID KEEP ISOLD TSRA IN SRN TIER LATE AS SOME
ELEVATED INSTAB LIKELY. INCREASING S/SE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MILDER
TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR 60S S AND LOW TO MID 60S N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE EXTENDED TERM. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS SHARPER...DEEPER AND
FASTER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFSENS. THIS LEADS TO SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ON BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE THAT WILL FORM ON THE FRONT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A
DEEPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. WILL
TREND TOWARD STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

COMPLICATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PWS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. INSTABILITY
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
KICK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WAVE WILL FORM ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED...MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE.
IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LAT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE COMING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...KEPT VFR CONDS IN TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN
THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH WDSPRD SHRA ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED ACRS
ENC. S-SE WINDS INCR AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
AFT 18Z.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. LATE TONIGHT THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING ONSHORE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM N TO
S IN THE AFTN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO SUB VFR DURING THE
AFTN AND S/SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1254 PM SAT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONT TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY GO DOWNHILL SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATE. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT N INTO ERN NC SUNDAY WITH S/SE WINDS INCREASING...ESPCLY
DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 KTS N AND 20 TO
30 KTS S BY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET...HIGHEST
OUTER SRN WTRS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 116 PM SAT...GALE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT KICKS SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING BEHIND IT...ALLOWING
NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP
THE COAST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/RF
MARINE...CGG/JAC/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 222350
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES MADE TO INIT T/TD. QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONT AS THE STRONG HIGH OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR THIS EVENING THEN OVERNIGHT EXPECT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES BOTH AT LOW LVLS
AND ALOFT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU THE EVENING WITH LOWS
INLAND DROPPING INTO THE 30S. OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND
CLOUDS INCREASE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT ESCPLY CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE AFTN.
MDLS SHOW PRECIP WTR VALUES SURGING FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH EARLY TO
1.75 INCHES LATE. STRONG ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY TO
CAT POPS FAR S TO CHC FAR N LATE. SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BECOME
IMPRESSIVE LATE...HOWEVER MDLS KEEP SFC BASED INSTAB S OF THE REGION
THRU SUN AFTN AND THIS SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY SVR WEATHER TIL
MAINLY AFTER 00Z. DID KEEP ISOLD TSRA IN SRN TIER LATE AS SOME
ELEVATED INSTAB LIKELY. INCREASING S/SE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MILDER
TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR 60S S AND LOW TO MID 60S N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE EXTENDED TERM. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS SHARPER...DEEPER AND
FASTER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFSENS. THIS LEADS TO SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ON BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE THAT WILL FORM ON THE FRONT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A
DEEPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. WILL
TREND TOWARD STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

COMPLICATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PWS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. INSTABILITY
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
KICK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WAVE WILL FORM ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED...MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE.
IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LAT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE COMING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...KEPT VFR CONDS IN TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN
THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH WDSPRD SHRA ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED ACRS
ENC. S-SE WINDS INCR AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
AFT 18Z.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. LATE TONIGHT THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING ONSHORE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM N TO
S IN THE AFTN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO SUB VFR DURING THE
AFTN AND S/SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1254 PM SAT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONT TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY GO DOWNHILL SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATE. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT N INTO ERN NC SUNDAY WITH S/SE WINDS INCREASING...ESPCLY
DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 KTS N AND 20 TO
30 KTS S BY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET...HIGHEST
OUTER SRN WTRS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 116 PM SAT...GALE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT KICKS SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING BEHIND IT...ALLOWING
NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP
THE COAST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/RF
MARINE...CGG/JAC/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 222350
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES MADE TO INIT T/TD. QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONT AS THE STRONG HIGH OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR THIS EVENING THEN OVERNIGHT EXPECT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES BOTH AT LOW LVLS
AND ALOFT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU THE EVENING WITH LOWS
INLAND DROPPING INTO THE 30S. OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND
CLOUDS INCREASE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT ESCPLY CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE AFTN.
MDLS SHOW PRECIP WTR VALUES SURGING FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH EARLY TO
1.75 INCHES LATE. STRONG ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY TO
CAT POPS FAR S TO CHC FAR N LATE. SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BECOME
IMPRESSIVE LATE...HOWEVER MDLS KEEP SFC BASED INSTAB S OF THE REGION
THRU SUN AFTN AND THIS SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY SVR WEATHER TIL
MAINLY AFTER 00Z. DID KEEP ISOLD TSRA IN SRN TIER LATE AS SOME
ELEVATED INSTAB LIKELY. INCREASING S/SE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MILDER
TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR 60S S AND LOW TO MID 60S N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE EXTENDED TERM. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS SHARPER...DEEPER AND
FASTER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFSENS. THIS LEADS TO SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ON BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE THAT WILL FORM ON THE FRONT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A
DEEPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. WILL
TREND TOWARD STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

COMPLICATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PWS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. INSTABILITY
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
KICK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WAVE WILL FORM ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED...MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE.
IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LAT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE COMING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...KEPT VFR CONDS IN TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN
THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH WDSPRD SHRA ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED ACRS
ENC. S-SE WINDS INCR AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
AFT 18Z.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. LATE TONIGHT THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING ONSHORE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM N TO
S IN THE AFTN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO SUB VFR DURING THE
AFTN AND S/SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1254 PM SAT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONT TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY GO DOWNHILL SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATE. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT N INTO ERN NC SUNDAY WITH S/SE WINDS INCREASING...ESPCLY
DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 KTS N AND 20 TO
30 KTS S BY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET...HIGHEST
OUTER SRN WTRS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 116 PM SAT...GALE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT KICKS SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING BEHIND IT...ALLOWING
NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP
THE COAST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/RF
MARINE...CGG/JAC/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 222350
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...ONLY CHANGES MADE TO INIT T/TD. QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONT AS THE STRONG HIGH OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR THIS EVENING THEN OVERNIGHT EXPECT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES BOTH AT LOW LVLS
AND ALOFT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU THE EVENING WITH LOWS
INLAND DROPPING INTO THE 30S. OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND
CLOUDS INCREASE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT ESCPLY CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE AFTN.
MDLS SHOW PRECIP WTR VALUES SURGING FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH EARLY TO
1.75 INCHES LATE. STRONG ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY TO
CAT POPS FAR S TO CHC FAR N LATE. SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BECOME
IMPRESSIVE LATE...HOWEVER MDLS KEEP SFC BASED INSTAB S OF THE REGION
THRU SUN AFTN AND THIS SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY SVR WEATHER TIL
MAINLY AFTER 00Z. DID KEEP ISOLD TSRA IN SRN TIER LATE AS SOME
ELEVATED INSTAB LIKELY. INCREASING S/SE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MILDER
TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR 60S S AND LOW TO MID 60S N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE EXTENDED TERM. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS SHARPER...DEEPER AND
FASTER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFSENS. THIS LEADS TO SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ON BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE THAT WILL FORM ON THE FRONT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A
DEEPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. WILL
TREND TOWARD STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

COMPLICATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PWS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. INSTABILITY
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
KICK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WAVE WILL FORM ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED...MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE.
IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LAT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE COMING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...KEPT VFR CONDS IN TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN
THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH WDSPRD SHRA ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED ACRS
ENC. S-SE WINDS INCR AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
AFT 18Z.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS THE WEATHER. LATE TONIGHT THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING ONSHORE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM N TO
S IN THE AFTN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO SUB VFR DURING THE
AFTN AND S/SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1254 PM SAT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONT TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY GO DOWNHILL SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATE. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT N INTO ERN NC SUNDAY WITH S/SE WINDS INCREASING...ESPCLY
DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 KTS N AND 20 TO
30 KTS S BY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET...HIGHEST
OUTER SRN WTRS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 116 PM SAT...GALE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT KICKS SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING BEHIND IT...ALLOWING
NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP
THE COAST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/RF
MARINE...CGG/JAC/RF






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 222341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TAKING
SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILD AND WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING OFFSHORE.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING A COOL
WET CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. CLEARING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING LIKE A ROCK ALONG
THE NC COAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE BEST.
TEMPERATURE FALLS ARE MUCH SLOWER ACROSS MOST OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA
WHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DEVELOPING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A RAPID AIRMASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE 850-500 MB LAYER BY MIDNIGHT WITH TREMENDOUS WARMING AND
MOISTENING BEGINNING VIA DEEP WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE WERE MINOR...MAINLY
CENTERED ALONG NEAR-TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN THE NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVES EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM
FOLLOWS...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
FURTHER SOUTH LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL AS WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE OTHER MAIN DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IS THE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING TEXAS WHERE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THESE TWO FEATURES INCREASINGLY ACT OVERNIGHT SOME
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE CAROLINAS. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT THIS MAY BE FAIRLY GRADUAL
BUT AFTER ABOUT 06Z OR SO IT SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE RAPID. THE
SOUTH TO NORTH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON
NIGHTTIME LOWS AS NORTHERN AREAS COOL OFF FOR LONGER BEFORE THE
CLOUD COVER RETARDS THE DIURNAL TREND. IN FACT MANY PLACES SHOULD
LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN
EARNEST. RAINFALL FORECAST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE WRF SEEMS TO
IMPLY RAINFALL KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER. FEEL IT BEST FOR POPS TO
MIRROR BUT LAG POPS...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT THEN RAIN
CHANCES RISE PRECIPITOUSLY (PARDON THE PUN) TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL
SE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH GULF STREAM
AIR INTO THE COASTAL ZONES ELEVATING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
A DEVELOPING AXIS OF POSITIVE MIXED-LAYERED CAPES WILL ORIENT
ITSELF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES FAR PRECEDE THE MAXIMUM OF
ML-CAPE BUT SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE CAPE/HELICITY EXISTS TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
AND SLIGHT CHILLED INSHORE SST VALUES COULD OFFSET INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS.

NEXT NOTEWORTHY ITEM...PRECEDING THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL PLENTY
STRATIFORM RAIN APPEARS LIKELY...AND THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PAINTS 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA
FOR THE 2-DAY PERIOD. STRATIFORM WILL TRANSITIONS TO CONVECTION AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY.

EXCEPTIONALLY MILD MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S IN A DEEP AND MOIST SW WIND FLOW ATOP THE AREA...AND FROPA
NEAR END OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. COOLEST PORTION
OF PERIOD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND MIDDLE 40S. HIGHEST POP
VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LINGERING FRONT STALLED OFF THE EAST COAST
TUE  INTO WED AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY TUE
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...JUST OFF THE SE COAST...RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. WED LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
COULD BE A MISERABLE DAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE LOW AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED MAY STAY
IN THE MID 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE TRENDED
HIGHS DOWN.

RAPID DRYING WILL COMMENCE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS  LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP DRY AIR ARRIVES. BY THU AM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.40 INCH AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS A
QUESTION WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS 5H TROUGHING
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A
DRY FORECAST BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH
ROUGHLY AN EQUAL SPLIT BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS. INHERITED FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
THINKING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND THEN
IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA
ACCOMPANY THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

LIGHT WINDS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL. ON SUNDAY...LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
AND LOWER CIGS WILL CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING AND WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE
INFORMATION...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INTRODUCE ATTM. AS FOR
WINDS...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED POSSIBLY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS
EARLY EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM FOLLOWS...

LIGHT VEERING FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO
OUR NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. ACTUALLY RATHER THAN PROGRESSING EASTWARD
IT GENERALLY JUST EXTENDS ITS CENTER EASTWARD AND BECOMES QUITE
ELONGATED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE OCEAN
CENTER OF THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND JUST A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS
MAINTAINED INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A VERY WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
BETWEEN. THE END RESULT WILL BE FLOW THAT CHANGES FROM NE TO E LATER
ON AND THEN EVENTUALLY SE. THE SHIFTING OF THE HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THE TROUGH MAY SHAVE ABOUT THE UPPER 5 KNOTS OFF THE RANGE OF
WIND SPEEDS MEANING 10 KTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN 10 TO 15KT. SEAS
WILL TEND TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3 FT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MINIMIZING
THE WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE MUCH AS IN THE
CURRENT OBS...41013 NOW JUST BELOW 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SE
WINDS CRANK UP TO 15-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. S
AND SW BLUSTERY FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY 15-25 KT...WHILE SEAS
PEAK MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT DURING MAXIMUM IN S-SE WIND OFFSHORE OF
6-10 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GULF STREAM LATE MONDAY.
VENTURING OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST TUE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
LATE TUE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WED...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE WATERS.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED. LOW EXITS NORTHEAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW EXITS. GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THU MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED NORTHERLY
FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DROPS SEAS
TO 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND AROUND 2 FT THU.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 222341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TAKING
SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILD AND WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING OFFSHORE.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING A COOL
WET CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. CLEARING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING LIKE A ROCK ALONG
THE NC COAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE BEST.
TEMPERATURE FALLS ARE MUCH SLOWER ACROSS MOST OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA
WHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DEVELOPING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A RAPID AIRMASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE 850-500 MB LAYER BY MIDNIGHT WITH TREMENDOUS WARMING AND
MOISTENING BEGINNING VIA DEEP WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE WERE MINOR...MAINLY
CENTERED ALONG NEAR-TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN THE NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVES EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM
FOLLOWS...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
FURTHER SOUTH LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL AS WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE OTHER MAIN DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IS THE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING TEXAS WHERE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THESE TWO FEATURES INCREASINGLY ACT OVERNIGHT SOME
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE CAROLINAS. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT THIS MAY BE FAIRLY GRADUAL
BUT AFTER ABOUT 06Z OR SO IT SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE RAPID. THE
SOUTH TO NORTH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON
NIGHTTIME LOWS AS NORTHERN AREAS COOL OFF FOR LONGER BEFORE THE
CLOUD COVER RETARDS THE DIURNAL TREND. IN FACT MANY PLACES SHOULD
LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN
EARNEST. RAINFALL FORECAST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE WRF SEEMS TO
IMPLY RAINFALL KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER. FEEL IT BEST FOR POPS TO
MIRROR BUT LAG POPS...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT THEN RAIN
CHANCES RISE PRECIPITOUSLY (PARDON THE PUN) TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL
SE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH GULF STREAM
AIR INTO THE COASTAL ZONES ELEVATING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
A DEVELOPING AXIS OF POSITIVE MIXED-LAYERED CAPES WILL ORIENT
ITSELF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES FAR PRECEDE THE MAXIMUM OF
ML-CAPE BUT SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE CAPE/HELICITY EXISTS TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
AND SLIGHT CHILLED INSHORE SST VALUES COULD OFFSET INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS.

NEXT NOTEWORTHY ITEM...PRECEDING THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL PLENTY
STRATIFORM RAIN APPEARS LIKELY...AND THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PAINTS 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA
FOR THE 2-DAY PERIOD. STRATIFORM WILL TRANSITIONS TO CONVECTION AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY.

EXCEPTIONALLY MILD MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S IN A DEEP AND MOIST SW WIND FLOW ATOP THE AREA...AND FROPA
NEAR END OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. COOLEST PORTION
OF PERIOD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND MIDDLE 40S. HIGHEST POP
VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LINGERING FRONT STALLED OFF THE EAST COAST
TUE  INTO WED AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY TUE
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...JUST OFF THE SE COAST...RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. WED LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
COULD BE A MISERABLE DAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE LOW AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED MAY STAY
IN THE MID 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE TRENDED
HIGHS DOWN.

RAPID DRYING WILL COMMENCE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS  LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP DRY AIR ARRIVES. BY THU AM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.40 INCH AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS A
QUESTION WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS 5H TROUGHING
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A
DRY FORECAST BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH
ROUGHLY AN EQUAL SPLIT BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS. INHERITED FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
THINKING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND THEN
IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA
ACCOMPANY THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

LIGHT WINDS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL. ON SUNDAY...LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
AND LOWER CIGS WILL CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING AND WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE
INFORMATION...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INTRODUCE ATTM. AS FOR
WINDS...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED POSSIBLY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS
EARLY EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM FOLLOWS...

LIGHT VEERING FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO
OUR NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. ACTUALLY RATHER THAN PROGRESSING EASTWARD
IT GENERALLY JUST EXTENDS ITS CENTER EASTWARD AND BECOMES QUITE
ELONGATED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE OCEAN
CENTER OF THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND JUST A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS
MAINTAINED INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A VERY WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
BETWEEN. THE END RESULT WILL BE FLOW THAT CHANGES FROM NE TO E LATER
ON AND THEN EVENTUALLY SE. THE SHIFTING OF THE HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THE TROUGH MAY SHAVE ABOUT THE UPPER 5 KNOTS OFF THE RANGE OF
WIND SPEEDS MEANING 10 KTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN 10 TO 15KT. SEAS
WILL TEND TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3 FT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MINIMIZING
THE WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE MUCH AS IN THE
CURRENT OBS...41013 NOW JUST BELOW 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SE
WINDS CRANK UP TO 15-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. S
AND SW BLUSTERY FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY 15-25 KT...WHILE SEAS
PEAK MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT DURING MAXIMUM IN S-SE WIND OFFSHORE OF
6-10 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GULF STREAM LATE MONDAY.
VENTURING OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST TUE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
LATE TUE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WED...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE WATERS.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED. LOW EXITS NORTHEAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW EXITS. GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THU MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED NORTHERLY
FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DROPS SEAS
TO 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND AROUND 2 FT THU.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 222341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TAKING
SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILD AND WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING OFFSHORE.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING A COOL
WET CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. CLEARING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING LIKE A ROCK ALONG
THE NC COAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE BEST.
TEMPERATURE FALLS ARE MUCH SLOWER ACROSS MOST OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA
WHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DEVELOPING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A RAPID AIRMASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE 850-500 MB LAYER BY MIDNIGHT WITH TREMENDOUS WARMING AND
MOISTENING BEGINNING VIA DEEP WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE WERE MINOR...MAINLY
CENTERED ALONG NEAR-TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN THE NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVES EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM
FOLLOWS...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
FURTHER SOUTH LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL AS WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE OTHER MAIN DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IS THE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING TEXAS WHERE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THESE TWO FEATURES INCREASINGLY ACT OVERNIGHT SOME
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE CAROLINAS. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT THIS MAY BE FAIRLY GRADUAL
BUT AFTER ABOUT 06Z OR SO IT SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE RAPID. THE
SOUTH TO NORTH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON
NIGHTTIME LOWS AS NORTHERN AREAS COOL OFF FOR LONGER BEFORE THE
CLOUD COVER RETARDS THE DIURNAL TREND. IN FACT MANY PLACES SHOULD
LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN
EARNEST. RAINFALL FORECAST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE WRF SEEMS TO
IMPLY RAINFALL KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER. FEEL IT BEST FOR POPS TO
MIRROR BUT LAG POPS...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT THEN RAIN
CHANCES RISE PRECIPITOUSLY (PARDON THE PUN) TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL
SE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH GULF STREAM
AIR INTO THE COASTAL ZONES ELEVATING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
A DEVELOPING AXIS OF POSITIVE MIXED-LAYERED CAPES WILL ORIENT
ITSELF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES FAR PRECEDE THE MAXIMUM OF
ML-CAPE BUT SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE CAPE/HELICITY EXISTS TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
AND SLIGHT CHILLED INSHORE SST VALUES COULD OFFSET INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS.

NEXT NOTEWORTHY ITEM...PRECEDING THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL PLENTY
STRATIFORM RAIN APPEARS LIKELY...AND THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PAINTS 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA
FOR THE 2-DAY PERIOD. STRATIFORM WILL TRANSITIONS TO CONVECTION AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY.

EXCEPTIONALLY MILD MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S IN A DEEP AND MOIST SW WIND FLOW ATOP THE AREA...AND FROPA
NEAR END OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. COOLEST PORTION
OF PERIOD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND MIDDLE 40S. HIGHEST POP
VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LINGERING FRONT STALLED OFF THE EAST COAST
TUE  INTO WED AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY TUE
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...JUST OFF THE SE COAST...RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. WED LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
COULD BE A MISERABLE DAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE LOW AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED MAY STAY
IN THE MID 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE TRENDED
HIGHS DOWN.

RAPID DRYING WILL COMMENCE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS  LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP DRY AIR ARRIVES. BY THU AM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.40 INCH AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS A
QUESTION WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS 5H TROUGHING
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A
DRY FORECAST BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH
ROUGHLY AN EQUAL SPLIT BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS. INHERITED FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
THINKING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND THEN
IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA
ACCOMPANY THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

LIGHT WINDS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL. ON SUNDAY...LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
AND LOWER CIGS WILL CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING AND WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE
INFORMATION...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INTRODUCE ATTM. AS FOR
WINDS...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED POSSIBLY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS
EARLY EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM FOLLOWS...

LIGHT VEERING FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO
OUR NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. ACTUALLY RATHER THAN PROGRESSING EASTWARD
IT GENERALLY JUST EXTENDS ITS CENTER EASTWARD AND BECOMES QUITE
ELONGATED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE OCEAN
CENTER OF THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND JUST A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS
MAINTAINED INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A VERY WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
BETWEEN. THE END RESULT WILL BE FLOW THAT CHANGES FROM NE TO E LATER
ON AND THEN EVENTUALLY SE. THE SHIFTING OF THE HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THE TROUGH MAY SHAVE ABOUT THE UPPER 5 KNOTS OFF THE RANGE OF
WIND SPEEDS MEANING 10 KTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN 10 TO 15KT. SEAS
WILL TEND TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3 FT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MINIMIZING
THE WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE MUCH AS IN THE
CURRENT OBS...41013 NOW JUST BELOW 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SE
WINDS CRANK UP TO 15-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. S
AND SW BLUSTERY FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY 15-25 KT...WHILE SEAS
PEAK MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT DURING MAXIMUM IN S-SE WIND OFFSHORE OF
6-10 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GULF STREAM LATE MONDAY.
VENTURING OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST TUE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
LATE TUE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WED...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE WATERS.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED. LOW EXITS NORTHEAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW EXITS. GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THU MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED NORTHERLY
FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DROPS SEAS
TO 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND AROUND 2 FT THU.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 222341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TAKING
SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILD AND WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY...STALLING OFFSHORE.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...BRINGING A COOL
WET CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. CLEARING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING LIKE A ROCK ALONG
THE NC COAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE BEST.
TEMPERATURE FALLS ARE MUCH SLOWER ACROSS MOST OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA
WHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DEVELOPING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A RAPID AIRMASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE 850-500 MB LAYER BY MIDNIGHT WITH TREMENDOUS WARMING AND
MOISTENING BEGINNING VIA DEEP WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE WERE MINOR...MAINLY
CENTERED ALONG NEAR-TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN THE NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVES EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM
FOLLOWS...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
FURTHER SOUTH LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL AS WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE OTHER MAIN DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IS THE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING TEXAS WHERE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THESE TWO FEATURES INCREASINGLY ACT OVERNIGHT SOME
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE CAROLINAS. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT THIS MAY BE FAIRLY GRADUAL
BUT AFTER ABOUT 06Z OR SO IT SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE RAPID. THE
SOUTH TO NORTH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON
NIGHTTIME LOWS AS NORTHERN AREAS COOL OFF FOR LONGER BEFORE THE
CLOUD COVER RETARDS THE DIURNAL TREND. IN FACT MANY PLACES SHOULD
LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN
EARNEST. RAINFALL FORECAST A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE WRF SEEMS TO
IMPLY RAINFALL KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER. FEEL IT BEST FOR POPS TO
MIRROR BUT LAG POPS...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT THEN RAIN
CHANCES RISE PRECIPITOUSLY (PARDON THE PUN) TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL
SE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH GULF STREAM
AIR INTO THE COASTAL ZONES ELEVATING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
A DEVELOPING AXIS OF POSITIVE MIXED-LAYERED CAPES WILL ORIENT
ITSELF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES FAR PRECEDE THE MAXIMUM OF
ML-CAPE BUT SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE CAPE/HELICITY EXISTS TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
AND SLIGHT CHILLED INSHORE SST VALUES COULD OFFSET INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS.

NEXT NOTEWORTHY ITEM...PRECEDING THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL PLENTY
STRATIFORM RAIN APPEARS LIKELY...AND THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PAINTS 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA
FOR THE 2-DAY PERIOD. STRATIFORM WILL TRANSITIONS TO CONVECTION AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY.

EXCEPTIONALLY MILD MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S IN A DEEP AND MOIST SW WIND FLOW ATOP THE AREA...AND FROPA
NEAR END OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. COOLEST PORTION
OF PERIOD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND MIDDLE 40S. HIGHEST POP
VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LINGERING FRONT STALLED OFF THE EAST COAST
TUE  INTO WED AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY TUE
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...JUST OFF THE SE COAST...RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. WED LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
COULD BE A MISERABLE DAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE LOW AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED MAY STAY
IN THE MID 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE TRENDED
HIGHS DOWN.

RAPID DRYING WILL COMMENCE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS  LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP DRY AIR ARRIVES. BY THU AM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.40 INCH AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS A
QUESTION WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS 5H TROUGHING
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A
DRY FORECAST BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH
ROUGHLY AN EQUAL SPLIT BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS. INHERITED FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
THINKING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND THEN
IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW CIGS AND SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA
ACCOMPANY THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

LIGHT WINDS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL. ON SUNDAY...LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
AND LOWER CIGS WILL CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING AND WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE
INFORMATION...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INTRODUCE ATTM. AS FOR
WINDS...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED POSSIBLY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS
EARLY EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM FOLLOWS...

LIGHT VEERING FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO
OUR NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. ACTUALLY RATHER THAN PROGRESSING EASTWARD
IT GENERALLY JUST EXTENDS ITS CENTER EASTWARD AND BECOMES QUITE
ELONGATED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE OCEAN
CENTER OF THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND JUST A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS
MAINTAINED INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A VERY WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
BETWEEN. THE END RESULT WILL BE FLOW THAT CHANGES FROM NE TO E LATER
ON AND THEN EVENTUALLY SE. THE SHIFTING OF THE HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THE TROUGH MAY SHAVE ABOUT THE UPPER 5 KNOTS OFF THE RANGE OF
WIND SPEEDS MEANING 10 KTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN 10 TO 15KT. SEAS
WILL TEND TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3 FT...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MINIMIZING
THE WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE MUCH AS IN THE
CURRENT OBS...41013 NOW JUST BELOW 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SE
WINDS CRANK UP TO 15-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. S
AND SW BLUSTERY FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY 15-25 KT...WHILE SEAS
PEAK MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT DURING MAXIMUM IN S-SE WIND OFFSHORE OF
6-10 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GULF STREAM LATE MONDAY.
VENTURING OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST TUE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
LATE TUE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WED...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE WATERS.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED. LOW EXITS NORTHEAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW EXITS. GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THU MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED NORTHERLY
FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DROPS SEAS
TO 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND AROUND 2 FT THU.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 222109
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
410 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT WELL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...A 50-60KT LLJ WILL BRING PW OF OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH MID-MORNING... THOUGH PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RATHER DRY AND ONLY SLOW
MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER NC.  THE HEAVIER PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER
21Z...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

TEMPS... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
SUNDAY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST A
WEAK...STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  HIGHS IN
THE TRIAD MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE TEMPS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
EAST.  TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS
ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AS MODELS INDICATE...IS
UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR MANY AREAS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR SURFACE BASED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH THE
BETTER PUSH OF THE MARITIME AIR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AS MUCH AS
200-600 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST MLCAPE GENERATED BY ANY OPERATIONAL
NWP...WITH THE GFS/SREF SHOWING 100-300 J/KG...AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-70KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING SC
AND SOUTHEASTERN NC.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP WITH
STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK..BUT DPVA FROM
THE VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM EVEN BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD. -BLS

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 222109
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
410 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT WELL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...A 50-60KT LLJ WILL BRING PW OF OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH MID-MORNING... THOUGH PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RATHER DRY AND ONLY SLOW
MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER NC.  THE HEAVIER PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER
21Z...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

TEMPS... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
SUNDAY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST A
WEAK...STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  HIGHS IN
THE TRIAD MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE TEMPS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
EAST.  TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS
ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AS MODELS INDICATE...IS
UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR MANY AREAS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR SURFACE BASED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH THE
BETTER PUSH OF THE MARITIME AIR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AS MUCH AS
200-600 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST MLCAPE GENERATED BY ANY OPERATIONAL
NWP...WITH THE GFS/SREF SHOWING 100-300 J/KG...AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-70KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING SC
AND SOUTHEASTERN NC.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP WITH
STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK..BUT DPVA FROM
THE VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM EVEN BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD. -BLS

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 222055
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 222055
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KILM 222036
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TAKING
SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILD AND WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY
STALLING OFFSHORE. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL AND WET DAY WEDNESDAY TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FURTHER SOUTH LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL AS WARM
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE OTHER MAIN
DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING TEXAS WHERE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. AS THESE TWO FEATURES
INCREASINGLY ACT OVERNIGHT SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
CAROLINAS. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
THIS MAY BE FAIRLY GRADUAL BUT AFTER ABOUT 06Z OR SO IT SHOULD
BECOME MUCH MORE RAPID. THE SOUTH TO NORTH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON NIGHTTIME LOWS AS NORTHERN AREAS COOL OFF
FOR LONGER BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER RETARDS THE DIURNAL TREND. IN FACT
MANY PLACES SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN EARNEST. RAINFALL FORECAST A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC. THE WRF SEEMS TO IMPLY RAINFALL KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF
SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS
SLOWER. FEEL IT BEST FOR POPS TO MIRROR BUT LAG POPS...MOST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT THEN RAIN CHANCES RISE PRECIPITOUSLY (PARDON
THE PUN) TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL
SE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH GULF STREAM
AIR INTO THE COASTAL ZONES ELEVATING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
A DEVELOPING AXIS OF POSITIVE MIXED-LAYERED CAPES WILL ORIENT
ITSELF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES FAR PRECEDE THE MAXIMUM OF
ML-CAPE BUT SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE CAPE/HELICITY EXISTS TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
AND SLIGHT CHILLED INSHORE SST VALUES COULD OFFSET INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS.

NEXT NOTEWORTHY ITEM...PRECEDING THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL PLENTY
STRATIFORM RAIN APPEARS LIKELY...AND THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PAINTS 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA
FOR THE 2-DAY PERIOD. STRATIFORM WILL TRANSITIONS TO CONVECTION AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY.

EXCEPTIONALLY MILD MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S IN A DEEP AND MOIST SW WIND FLOW ATOP THE AREA...AND FROPA
NEAR END OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. COOLEST PORTION
OF PERIOD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND MIDDLE 40S. HIGHEST POP
VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LINGERING FRONT STALLED OFF THE EAST COAST
TUE  INTO WED AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY TUE
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...JUST OFF THE SE COAST...RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. WED LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
COULD BE A MISERABLE DAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE LOW AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED MAY STAY
IN THE MID 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE TRENDED
HIGHS DOWN.

RAPID DRYING WILL COMMENCE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS  LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP DRY AIR ARRIVES. BY THU AM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.40 INCH AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS A
QUESTION WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS 5H TROUGHING
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A
DRY FORECAST BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH
ROUGHLY AN EQUAL SPLIT BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS. INHERITED FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
THINKING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER THINGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER THAT. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW
TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY...BECOMING EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SUNDAY...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
COMMENCE AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MODERATE RAIN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NEW MODEL RUN OF THE NAM IS STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT VEERING FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. ACTUALLY RATHER
THAN PROGRESSING EASTWARD IT GENERALLY JUST EXTENDS ITS CENTER
EASTWARD AND BECOMES QUITE ELONGATED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THE OCEAN CENTER OF THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND JUST A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A VERY WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN BETWEEN. THE END RESULT WILL BE FLOW THAT CHANGES
FROM NE TO E LATER ON AND THEN EVENTUALLY SE. THE SHIFTING OF THE
HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH MAY SHAVE ABOUT THE UPPER 5 KNOTS
OFF THE RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS MEANING 10 KTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN 10
TO 15KT. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3 FT...WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MINIMIZING THE WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE MUCH
AS IN THE CURRENT OBS...41013 NOW JUST BELOW 4 FT.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SE
WINDS CRANK UP TO 15-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. S
AND SW BLUSTERY FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY 15-25 KT...WHILE SEAS
PEAK MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT DURING MAXIMUM IN S-SE WIND OFFSHORE OF
6-10 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GULF STREAM LATE MONDAY.
VENTURING OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST TUE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
LATE TUE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WED...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE WATERS.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED. LOW EXITS NORTHEAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW EXITS. GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THU MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED NORTHERLY
FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DROPS SEAS
TO 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND AROUND 2 FT THU.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 222036
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TAKING
SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILD AND WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY
STALLING OFFSHORE. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL AND WET DAY WEDNESDAY TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FURTHER SOUTH LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL AS WARM
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE OTHER MAIN
DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING TEXAS WHERE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. AS THESE TWO FEATURES
INCREASINGLY ACT OVERNIGHT SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
CAROLINAS. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
THIS MAY BE FAIRLY GRADUAL BUT AFTER ABOUT 06Z OR SO IT SHOULD
BECOME MUCH MORE RAPID. THE SOUTH TO NORTH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON NIGHTTIME LOWS AS NORTHERN AREAS COOL OFF
FOR LONGER BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER RETARDS THE DIURNAL TREND. IN FACT
MANY PLACES SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN EARNEST. RAINFALL FORECAST A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC. THE WRF SEEMS TO IMPLY RAINFALL KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF
SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS
SLOWER. FEEL IT BEST FOR POPS TO MIRROR BUT LAG POPS...MOST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT THEN RAIN CHANCES RISE PRECIPITOUSLY (PARDON
THE PUN) TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL
SE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH GULF STREAM
AIR INTO THE COASTAL ZONES ELEVATING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
A DEVELOPING AXIS OF POSITIVE MIXED-LAYERED CAPES WILL ORIENT
ITSELF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES FAR PRECEDE THE MAXIMUM OF
ML-CAPE BUT SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE CAPE/HELICITY EXISTS TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
AND SLIGHT CHILLED INSHORE SST VALUES COULD OFFSET INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS.

NEXT NOTEWORTHY ITEM...PRECEDING THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL PLENTY
STRATIFORM RAIN APPEARS LIKELY...AND THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PAINTS 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA
FOR THE 2-DAY PERIOD. STRATIFORM WILL TRANSITIONS TO CONVECTION AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY.

EXCEPTIONALLY MILD MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S IN A DEEP AND MOIST SW WIND FLOW ATOP THE AREA...AND FROPA
NEAR END OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. COOLEST PORTION
OF PERIOD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND MIDDLE 40S. HIGHEST POP
VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LINGERING FRONT STALLED OFF THE EAST COAST
TUE  INTO WED AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY TUE
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...JUST OFF THE SE COAST...RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. WED LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
COULD BE A MISERABLE DAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE LOW AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED MAY STAY
IN THE MID 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE TRENDED
HIGHS DOWN.

RAPID DRYING WILL COMMENCE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS  LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP DRY AIR ARRIVES. BY THU AM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.40 INCH AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS A
QUESTION WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS 5H TROUGHING
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A
DRY FORECAST BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH
ROUGHLY AN EQUAL SPLIT BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS. INHERITED FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
THINKING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER THINGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER THAT. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW
TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY...BECOMING EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SUNDAY...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
COMMENCE AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MODERATE RAIN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NEW MODEL RUN OF THE NAM IS STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT VEERING FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. ACTUALLY RATHER
THAN PROGRESSING EASTWARD IT GENERALLY JUST EXTENDS ITS CENTER
EASTWARD AND BECOMES QUITE ELONGATED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THE OCEAN CENTER OF THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND JUST A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A VERY WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN BETWEEN. THE END RESULT WILL BE FLOW THAT CHANGES
FROM NE TO E LATER ON AND THEN EVENTUALLY SE. THE SHIFTING OF THE
HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH MAY SHAVE ABOUT THE UPPER 5 KNOTS
OFF THE RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS MEANING 10 KTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN 10
TO 15KT. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3 FT...WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MINIMIZING THE WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE MUCH
AS IN THE CURRENT OBS...41013 NOW JUST BELOW 4 FT.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SE
WINDS CRANK UP TO 15-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. S
AND SW BLUSTERY FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY 15-25 KT...WHILE SEAS
PEAK MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT DURING MAXIMUM IN S-SE WIND OFFSHORE OF
6-10 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GULF STREAM LATE MONDAY.
VENTURING OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST TUE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
LATE TUE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WED...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE WATERS.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED. LOW EXITS NORTHEAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW EXITS. GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THU MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED NORTHERLY
FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DROPS SEAS
TO 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND AROUND 2 FT THU.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 222036
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TAKING
SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILD AND WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY
STALLING OFFSHORE. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL AND WET DAY WEDNESDAY TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FURTHER SOUTH LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL AS WARM
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE OTHER MAIN
DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING TEXAS WHERE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. AS THESE TWO FEATURES
INCREASINGLY ACT OVERNIGHT SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
CAROLINAS. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
THIS MAY BE FAIRLY GRADUAL BUT AFTER ABOUT 06Z OR SO IT SHOULD
BECOME MUCH MORE RAPID. THE SOUTH TO NORTH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON NIGHTTIME LOWS AS NORTHERN AREAS COOL OFF
FOR LONGER BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER RETARDS THE DIURNAL TREND. IN FACT
MANY PLACES SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN EARNEST. RAINFALL FORECAST A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC. THE WRF SEEMS TO IMPLY RAINFALL KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF
SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS
SLOWER. FEEL IT BEST FOR POPS TO MIRROR BUT LAG POPS...MOST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT THEN RAIN CHANCES RISE PRECIPITOUSLY (PARDON
THE PUN) TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL
SE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH GULF STREAM
AIR INTO THE COASTAL ZONES ELEVATING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
A DEVELOPING AXIS OF POSITIVE MIXED-LAYERED CAPES WILL ORIENT
ITSELF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES FAR PRECEDE THE MAXIMUM OF
ML-CAPE BUT SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE CAPE/HELICITY EXISTS TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
AND SLIGHT CHILLED INSHORE SST VALUES COULD OFFSET INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS.

NEXT NOTEWORTHY ITEM...PRECEDING THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL PLENTY
STRATIFORM RAIN APPEARS LIKELY...AND THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PAINTS 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA
FOR THE 2-DAY PERIOD. STRATIFORM WILL TRANSITIONS TO CONVECTION AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY.

EXCEPTIONALLY MILD MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S IN A DEEP AND MOIST SW WIND FLOW ATOP THE AREA...AND FROPA
NEAR END OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. COOLEST PORTION
OF PERIOD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND MIDDLE 40S. HIGHEST POP
VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LINGERING FRONT STALLED OFF THE EAST COAST
TUE  INTO WED AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY TUE
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...JUST OFF THE SE COAST...RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. WED LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
COULD BE A MISERABLE DAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE LOW AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED MAY STAY
IN THE MID 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE TRENDED
HIGHS DOWN.

RAPID DRYING WILL COMMENCE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS  LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP DRY AIR ARRIVES. BY THU AM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.40 INCH AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS A
QUESTION WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS 5H TROUGHING
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A
DRY FORECAST BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH
ROUGHLY AN EQUAL SPLIT BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS. INHERITED FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
THINKING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER THINGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER THAT. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW
TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY...BECOMING EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SUNDAY...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
COMMENCE AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MODERATE RAIN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NEW MODEL RUN OF THE NAM IS STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT VEERING FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. ACTUALLY RATHER
THAN PROGRESSING EASTWARD IT GENERALLY JUST EXTENDS ITS CENTER
EASTWARD AND BECOMES QUITE ELONGATED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THE OCEAN CENTER OF THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND JUST A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A VERY WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN BETWEEN. THE END RESULT WILL BE FLOW THAT CHANGES
FROM NE TO E LATER ON AND THEN EVENTUALLY SE. THE SHIFTING OF THE
HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH MAY SHAVE ABOUT THE UPPER 5 KNOTS
OFF THE RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS MEANING 10 KTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN 10
TO 15KT. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3 FT...WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MINIMIZING THE WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE MUCH
AS IN THE CURRENT OBS...41013 NOW JUST BELOW 4 FT.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SE
WINDS CRANK UP TO 15-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. S
AND SW BLUSTERY FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY 15-25 KT...WHILE SEAS
PEAK MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT DURING MAXIMUM IN S-SE WIND OFFSHORE OF
6-10 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GULF STREAM LATE MONDAY.
VENTURING OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST TUE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
LATE TUE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WED...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE WATERS.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED. LOW EXITS NORTHEAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW EXITS. GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THU MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED NORTHERLY
FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DROPS SEAS
TO 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND AROUND 2 FT THU.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 222036
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TAKING
SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILD AND WET
WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY
STALLING OFFSHORE. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL AND WET DAY WEDNESDAY TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FURTHER SOUTH LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL AS WARM
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. THE OTHER MAIN
DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING TEXAS WHERE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. AS THESE TWO FEATURES
INCREASINGLY ACT OVERNIGHT SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
CAROLINAS. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
THIS MAY BE FAIRLY GRADUAL BUT AFTER ABOUT 06Z OR SO IT SHOULD
BECOME MUCH MORE RAPID. THE SOUTH TO NORTH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON NIGHTTIME LOWS AS NORTHERN AREAS COOL OFF
FOR LONGER BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER RETARDS THE DIURNAL TREND. IN FACT
MANY PLACES SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE
THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN EARNEST. RAINFALL FORECAST A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC. THE WRF SEEMS TO IMPLY RAINFALL KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF
SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS
SLOWER. FEEL IT BEST FOR POPS TO MIRROR BUT LAG POPS...MOST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT THEN RAIN CHANCES RISE PRECIPITOUSLY (PARDON
THE PUN) TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL
SE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE RICH GULF STREAM
AIR INTO THE COASTAL ZONES ELEVATING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
A DEVELOPING AXIS OF POSITIVE MIXED-LAYERED CAPES WILL ORIENT
ITSELF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES FAR PRECEDE THE MAXIMUM OF
ML-CAPE BUT SOME OVERLAP OF MODERATE CAPE/HELICITY EXISTS TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
AND SLIGHT CHILLED INSHORE SST VALUES COULD OFFSET INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS.

NEXT NOTEWORTHY ITEM...PRECEDING THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL PLENTY
STRATIFORM RAIN APPEARS LIKELY...AND THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY PAINTS 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA
FOR THE 2-DAY PERIOD. STRATIFORM WILL TRANSITIONS TO CONVECTION AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY.

EXCEPTIONALLY MILD MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S IN A DEEP AND MOIST SW WIND FLOW ATOP THE AREA...AND FROPA
NEAR END OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. COOLEST PORTION
OF PERIOD DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND MIDDLE 40S. HIGHEST POP
VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LINGERING FRONT STALLED OFF THE EAST COAST
TUE  INTO WED AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY TUE
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS THE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...JUST OFF THE SE COAST...RAIN
WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS. WED LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
COULD BE A MISERABLE DAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE LOW AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED MAY STAY
IN THE MID 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE TRENDED
HIGHS DOWN.

RAPID DRYING WILL COMMENCE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS  LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP DRY AIR ARRIVES. BY THU AM
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.40 INCH AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS A
QUESTION WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRI/SAT WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS 5H TROUGHING
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A
DRY FORECAST BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH
ROUGHLY AN EQUAL SPLIT BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS. INHERITED FORECAST
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
THINKING UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER THINGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER THAT. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW
TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY...BECOMING EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SUNDAY...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
COMMENCE AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MODERATE RAIN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NEW MODEL RUN OF THE NAM IS STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT VEERING FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. ACTUALLY RATHER
THAN PROGRESSING EASTWARD IT GENERALLY JUST EXTENDS ITS CENTER
EASTWARD AND BECOMES QUITE ELONGATED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THE OCEAN CENTER OF THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND JUST A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A VERY WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN BETWEEN. THE END RESULT WILL BE FLOW THAT CHANGES
FROM NE TO E LATER ON AND THEN EVENTUALLY SE. THE SHIFTING OF THE
HIGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH MAY SHAVE ABOUT THE UPPER 5 KNOTS
OFF THE RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS MEANING 10 KTS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN 10
TO 15KT. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3 FT...WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MINIMIZING THE WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE MUCH
AS IN THE CURRENT OBS...41013 NOW JUST BELOW 4 FT.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS SE
WINDS CRANK UP TO 15-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. S
AND SW BLUSTERY FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY 15-25 KT...WHILE SEAS
PEAK MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT DURING MAXIMUM IN S-SE WIND OFFSHORE OF
6-10 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GULF STREAM LATE MONDAY.
VENTURING OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST TUE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
LATE TUE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WED...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE WATERS.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED. LOW EXITS NORTHEAST WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW EXITS. GRADIENT DECREASES WITH
SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THU MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON TUE
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED NORTHERLY
FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DROPS SEAS
TO 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND AROUND 2 FT THU.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/MBB




000
FXUS62 KRAH 222009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 222009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 221915
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS THE STRONG
HIGH OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLR INTO THE EVENING THEN LATER TONIGHT EXPECT WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES BOTH AT LOW LVLS AND ALOFT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU THE EVENING WITH LOWS INLAND DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND CLOUDS
INCREASE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT ESCPLY CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE AFTN.
MDLS SHOW PRECIP WTR VALUES SURGING FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH EARLY TO
1.75 INCHES LATE. STRONG ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY TO
CAT POPS FAR S TO CHC FAR N LATE. SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BECOME
IMPRESSIVE LATE...HOWEVER MDLS KEEP SFC BASED INSTAB S OF THE REGION
THRU SUN AFTN AND THIS SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY SVR WEATHER TIL
MAINLY AFTER 00Z. DID KEEP ISOLD TSRA IN SRN TIER LATE AS SOME
ELEVATED INSTAB LIKELY. INCREASING S/SE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MILDER
TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR 60S S AND LOW TO MID 60S N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE EXTENDED TERM. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS SHARPER...DEEPER AND
FASTER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFSENS. THIS LEADS TO SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ON BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE THAT WILL FORM ON THE FRONT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A
DEEPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. WILL
TREND TOWARD STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

COMPLICATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PWS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. INSTABILITY
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
KICK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WAVE WILL FORM ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED...MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE.
IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LAT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE COMING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS THE WEATHER.
LATE TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING ONSHORE WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT
SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW. AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO SUB VFR
DURING THE AFTN AND S/SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1254 PM SAT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONT TONIGHT
THEN RAPIDLY GO DOWNHILL SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRES OVERHEAD THIS AFTN
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 2
TO 3 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N INTO ERN NC
SUNDAY WITH S/SE WINDS INCREASING...ESPCLY DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT
SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 KTS N AND 20 TO 30 KTS S BY EVENING WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER SRN WTRS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 116 PM SAT...GALE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT KICKS SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING BEHIND IT...ALLOWING
NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP
THE COAST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/CGG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 221915
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS THE STRONG
HIGH OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SLIDES OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLR INTO THE EVENING THEN LATER TONIGHT EXPECT WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES BOTH AT LOW LVLS AND ALOFT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU THE EVENING WITH LOWS INLAND DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND CLOUDS
INCREASE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT ESCPLY CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN DURING THE AFTN.
MDLS SHOW PRECIP WTR VALUES SURGING FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH EARLY TO
1.75 INCHES LATE. STRONG ISENT LIFT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY TO
CAT POPS FAR S TO CHC FAR N LATE. SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BECOME
IMPRESSIVE LATE...HOWEVER MDLS KEEP SFC BASED INSTAB S OF THE REGION
THRU SUN AFTN AND THIS SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY SVR WEATHER TIL
MAINLY AFTER 00Z. DID KEEP ISOLD TSRA IN SRN TIER LATE AS SOME
ELEVATED INSTAB LIKELY. INCREASING S/SE WINDS WILL LEAD TO MILDER
TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR 60S S AND LOW TO MID 60S N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SAT...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE EXTENDED TERM. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS SHARPER...DEEPER AND
FASTER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFSENS. THIS LEADS TO SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ON BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE THAT WILL FORM ON THE FRONT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A
DEEPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. WILL
TREND TOWARD STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

COMPLICATED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION. GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PWS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. INSTABILITY
INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT AND MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
KICK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WAVE WILL FORM ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND WILL
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED...MODELS DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE.
IT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LAT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE COMING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. MODELS TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS THE WEATHER.
LATE TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING ONSHORE WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT
SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW. AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO SUB VFR
DURING THE AFTN AND S/SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1254 PM SAT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONT TONIGHT
THEN RAPIDLY GO DOWNHILL SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRES OVERHEAD THIS AFTN
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
S/SE 5 TO 10 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 2
TO 3 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N INTO ERN NC
SUNDAY WITH S/SE WINDS INCREASING...ESPCLY DURING THE AFTN. EXPECT
SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 KTS N AND 20 TO 30 KTS S BY EVENING WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER SRN WTRS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 116 PM SAT...GALE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT KICKS SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING BEHIND IT...ALLOWING
NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SUBSIDE AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP
THE COAST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/CGG







000
FXUS62 KRAH 221758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 221723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO NE SURFACE FLOW
BENEATH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. SOME OF THE SC OFFSHORE MAY
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS BUT VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWING THIS NOW LESS
LIKELY AS THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING TROUBLE NEGOTIATING THE NEARSHORE
COOLER WATERS AND THEY ARE TENDING TO FAVOR THE WARMER GULF STREAM.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
INCREASE TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY FAIRLY SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER THINGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER THAT. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW
TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY...BECOMING EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SUNDAY...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
COMMENCE AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MODERATE RAIN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NEW MODEL RUN OF THE NAM IS STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...A GRADUAL VEERING TODAY FROM NE TO E WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES AS THE WEATHER GOES RAPIDLY
DOWNHILL HEADING INTO THE NEXT PERIOD.

AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH... THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE- ENE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM
SC WATERS. FOR TONIGHT...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE
PCPN WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU
TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4.5 TO 5.0 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL











000
FXUS62 KILM 221723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO NE SURFACE FLOW
BENEATH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. SOME OF THE SC OFFSHORE MAY
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS BUT VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWING THIS NOW LESS
LIKELY AS THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING TROUBLE NEGOTIATING THE NEARSHORE
COOLER WATERS AND THEY ARE TENDING TO FAVOR THE WARMER GULF STREAM.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
INCREASE TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY FAIRLY SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER THINGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER THAT. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST RETURN FLOW
TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY...BECOMING EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SUNDAY...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
COMMENCE AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MODERATE RAIN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NEW MODEL RUN OF THE NAM IS STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS RUN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...A GRADUAL VEERING TODAY FROM NE TO E WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES AS THE WEATHER GOES RAPIDLY
DOWNHILL HEADING INTO THE NEXT PERIOD.

AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH... THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE- ENE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM
SC WATERS. FOR TONIGHT...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE
PCPN WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU
TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4.5 TO 5.0 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL












000
FXUS62 KMHX 221718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1218 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM SATURDAY...BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO MOST AREAS
GIVEN QUICK RISE THIS MORN...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AS STRONG HIGH
PRES CONTS OVER THE AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES.

PREV DISC...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WED/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS THE WEATHER.
LATE TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING ONSHORE WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT
SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW. AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO SUB VFR
DURING THE AFTN AND S/SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1210 PM SATURDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.


PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT
NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLOW
SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/JME












000
FXUS62 KMHX 221718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1218 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM SATURDAY...BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO MOST AREAS
GIVEN QUICK RISE THIS MORN...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AS STRONG HIGH
PRES CONTS OVER THE AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES.

PREV DISC...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WED/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS THE WEATHER.
LATE TONIGHT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING ONSHORE WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT
SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR NOW. AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM N TO S IN THE AFTN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO SUB VFR
DURING THE AFTN AND S/SE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1210 PM SATURDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.


PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT
NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLOW
SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/JME













000
FXUS62 KRAH 221510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 221510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 221510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 221510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KILM 221451
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
943 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO NE SURFACE FLOW
BENEATH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. SOME OF THE SC OFFSHORE MAY
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS BUT VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWING THIS NOW LESS
LIKELY AS THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING TROUBLE NEGOTIATING THE NEARSHORE
COOLER WATERS AND THEY ARE TENDING TO FAVOR THE WARMER GULF STREAM.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
INCREASE TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY FAIRLY SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER THINGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER
THAT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST
RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THROUGHOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...A GRADUAL VEERING TODAY FROM NE TO E WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES AS THE WEATHER GOES RAPIDLY
DOWNHILL HEADING INTO THE NEXT PERIOD.

AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH... THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE- ENE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM
SC WATERS. FOR TONIGHT...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE
PCPN WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU
TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4.5 TO 5.0 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL








000
FXUS62 KILM 221451
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
943 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY BELOW CLIMO THANKS TO NE SURFACE FLOW
BENEATH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. SOME OF THE SC OFFSHORE MAY
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS BUT VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWING THIS NOW LESS
LIKELY AS THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING TROUBLE NEGOTIATING THE NEARSHORE
COOLER WATERS AND THEY ARE TENDING TO FAVOR THE WARMER GULF STREAM.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
INCREASE TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY FAIRLY SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER THINGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER
THAT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST
RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THROUGHOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...A GRADUAL VEERING TODAY FROM NE TO E WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES AS THE WEATHER GOES RAPIDLY
DOWNHILL HEADING INTO THE NEXT PERIOD.

AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH... THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE- ENE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM
SC WATERS. FOR TONIGHT...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH AN
INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE
PCPN WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU
TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4.5 TO 5.0 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 221412
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
912 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
THE AREA KEEPING SKIES SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S.

PREV DISC...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THIS
EVENING THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND AND NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT IT
WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT AFTER 03Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 AM SATURDAY...INCREASED NE WINDS A BIT THIS MORN SRN TIER
PER OBS..THESE SHLD DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE STRONG HIGH JUST
INLAND PUSHES EAST.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT
NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLOW
SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...RF/CTC/JME










000
FXUS62 KMHX 221412
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
912 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
THE AREA KEEPING SKIES SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S.

PREV DISC...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THIS
EVENING THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND AND NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT IT
WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT AFTER 03Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 AM SATURDAY...INCREASED NE WINDS A BIT THIS MORN SRN TIER
PER OBS..THESE SHLD DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE STRONG HIGH JUST
INLAND PUSHES EAST.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT
NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLOW
SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...RF/CTC/JME









000
FXUS62 KRAH 221205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS NOTED VERY
DRY AIR AT 850MB WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 40C. THE
TEMPERATURE HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT LEAST AT KTDF...AND
WATCHING THE KRDU OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR THE LOW WAS 25 AS OF THIS
WRITING. FOR TODAY...BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE.
THE HRRR WRF FORECASTS NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...AND WHAT ONE WOULD
CONSIDER LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST LESS. SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM SUGGEST LESS
AS WELL...ALONG WITH THE JET LIFTING NORTH. UNDER EXPECTED SUNSHINE
HIGHS SHOULD BE 50 TO 55.

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS NOTED VERY
DRY AIR AT 850MB WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 40C. THE
TEMPERATURE HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT LEAST AT KTDF...AND
WATCHING THE KRDU OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR THE LOW WAS 25 AS OF THIS
WRITING. FOR TODAY...BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE.
THE HRRR WRF FORECASTS NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...AND WHAT ONE WOULD
CONSIDER LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST LESS. SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM SUGGEST LESS
AS WELL...ALONG WITH THE JET LIFTING NORTH. UNDER EXPECTED SUNSHINE
HIGHS SHOULD BE 50 TO 55.

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KILM 221143
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD IS
CURRENTLY EITHER IN A TRANSITION TO A NEW PATTERN OR JUST
TEMPORARILY RE-CONFIGURING ITSELF BACK TO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
PATTERN THAT HAS AFFECTED THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.S.
DURING THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BUCKLE. THIS A
RESULT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES FROM THE
DESERT SW U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK.
A S/W LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS PERIOD.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS
THE FA...ILLUSTRATE A RATHER DRY ATM COLUMN TODAY THRU THE 1ST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS EVIDENCED BY PWS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
DRIVE A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE STRATO-CU DECK ONSHORE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS...WITH THE S/W UPPER TROF REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP BOTH GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE SOURCES. AND AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...FROM SW TO NE. STRATIFORM ISENTROPIC TYPE LIGHT
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY SUN MORNING.
MODELS HINT OF A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS BASICALLY TO BECOME
AN EXTENSION TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAXES BUT DIVERGE-
SOME CONCERNING TONIGHTS LOWS. COULD SEE TONIGHTS MINS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER THINGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER
THAT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST
RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THROUGHOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
...PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH... THE SFC PG QUICKLY
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING
AT NE- ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT
ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR TONIGHT...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OFFSHORE MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO
ESE WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS.
STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FT THRU TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.0 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL





000
FXUS62 KILM 221143
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD IS
CURRENTLY EITHER IN A TRANSITION TO A NEW PATTERN OR JUST
TEMPORARILY RE-CONFIGURING ITSELF BACK TO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
PATTERN THAT HAS AFFECTED THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.S.
DURING THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BUCKLE. THIS A
RESULT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES FROM THE
DESERT SW U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK.
A S/W LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS PERIOD.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS
THE FA...ILLUSTRATE A RATHER DRY ATM COLUMN TODAY THRU THE 1ST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS EVIDENCED BY PWS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
DRIVE A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE STRATO-CU DECK ONSHORE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS...WITH THE S/W UPPER TROF REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP BOTH GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE SOURCES. AND AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...FROM SW TO NE. STRATIFORM ISENTROPIC TYPE LIGHT
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY SUN MORNING.
MODELS HINT OF A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS BASICALLY TO BECOME
AN EXTENSION TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAXES BUT DIVERGE-
SOME CONCERNING TONIGHTS LOWS. COULD SEE TONIGHTS MINS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER THINGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER
THAT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST
RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THROUGHOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
...PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH... THE SFC PG QUICKLY
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING
AT NE- ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT
ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR TONIGHT...BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OFFSHORE MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO
ESE WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS.
STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC
WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FT THRU TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.0 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL






000
FXUS62 KILM 221105
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD IS
CURRENTLY EITHER IN A TRANSITION TO A NEW PATTERN OR JUST
TEMPORARILY RE-CONFIGURING ITSELF BACK TO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
PATTERN THAT AFFECTS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.S.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BUCKLE. THIS A
RESULT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES FROM THE
DESERT SW U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK.
A S/W LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS PERIOD.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS
THE FA...ILLUSTRATE A RATHER DRY ATM COLUMN TODAY THRU THE 1ST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS EVIDENCED BY PWS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
DRIVE A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE STRATO-CU DECK ONSHORE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS...WITH THE S/W UPPER TROF REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP BOTH GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE SOURCES. AND AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...FROM SW TO NE. STRATIFORM ISENTROPIC TYPE LIGHT
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY SUN MORNING.
MODELS HINT OF A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS BASICALLY TO BECOME
AN EXTENSION TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAXES BUT DIVERGE-
SOME CONCERNING TONIGHTS LOWS. COULD SEE TONIGHTS MINS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER THINGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER
THAT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST
RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THROUGHOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE...PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY...AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH...
THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE
CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE-ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY
...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR
TONIGHT...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN WILL BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU TONIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.0
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 221105
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD IS
CURRENTLY EITHER IN A TRANSITION TO A NEW PATTERN OR JUST
TEMPORARILY RE-CONFIGURING ITSELF BACK TO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
PATTERN THAT AFFECTS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.S.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BUCKLE. THIS A
RESULT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES FROM THE
DESERT SW U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK.
A S/W LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS PERIOD.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS
THE FA...ILLUSTRATE A RATHER DRY ATM COLUMN TODAY THRU THE 1ST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS EVIDENCED BY PWS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
DRIVE A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE STRATO-CU DECK ONSHORE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS...WITH THE S/W UPPER TROF REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP BOTH GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE SOURCES. AND AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...FROM SW TO NE. STRATIFORM ISENTROPIC TYPE LIGHT
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY SUN MORNING.
MODELS HINT OF A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS BASICALLY TO BECOME
AN EXTENSION TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAXES BUT DIVERGE-
SOME CONCERNING TONIGHTS LOWS. COULD SEE TONIGHTS MINS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER THINGS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER
THAT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING MOIST
RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THROUGHOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE...PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY...AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH...
THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE
CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE-ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY
...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR
TONIGHT...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN WILL BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU TONIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.0
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43










000
FXUS62 KMHX 221100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THIS
EVENING THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND AND NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT IT
WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT AFTER 03Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND
10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. THIS
EVENING THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
INLAND AND NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT IT
WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT AFTER 03Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND
10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/JME






000
FXUS62 KILM 220929
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
429 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD IS
CURRENTLY EITHER IN A TRANSITION TO A NEW PATTERN OR JUST
TEMPORARILY RE-CONFIGURING ITSELF BACK TO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
PATTERN THAT AFFECTS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.S.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BUCKLE. THIS A
RESULT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES FROM THE
DESERT SW U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK.
A S/W LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS PERIOD.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS
THE FA...ILLUSTRATE A RATHER DRY ATM COLUMN TODAY THRU THE 1ST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS EVIDENCED BY PWS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
DRIVE A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE STRATO-CU DECK ONSHORE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS...WITH THE S/W UPPER TROF REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP BOTH GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE SOURCES. AND AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...FROM SW TO NE. STRATIFORM ISENTROPIC TYPE LIGHT
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY SUN MORNING.
MODELS HINT OF A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS BASICALLY TO BECOME
AN EXTENSION TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAXES BUT DIVERGE-
SOME CONCERNING TONIGHTS LOWS. COULD SEE TONIGHTS MINS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THRUOUT THE VALID ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE
NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCAL TERMINALS
INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE FA...WITH PWS LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. BY LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT. THE SC FIELD JUST OFFSHORE...MAY GET DRAWN
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT JUST BEYOND THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKC CONDITIONS. WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT THRUOUT THE 06Z PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 3 KT DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THRUOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE...PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY...AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH...
THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE
CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE-ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY
...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR
TONIGHT...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN WILL BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU TONIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.0
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MAC







000
FXUS62 KILM 220929
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
429 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD IS
CURRENTLY EITHER IN A TRANSITION TO A NEW PATTERN OR JUST
TEMPORARILY RE-CONFIGURING ITSELF BACK TO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
PATTERN THAT AFFECTS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.S.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BUCKLE. THIS A
RESULT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES FROM THE
DESERT SW U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK.
A S/W LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS PERIOD.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS
THE FA...ILLUSTRATE A RATHER DRY ATM COLUMN TODAY THRU THE 1ST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS EVIDENCED BY PWS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
DRIVE A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE STRATO-CU DECK ONSHORE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS...WITH THE S/W UPPER TROF REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP BOTH GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE SOURCES. AND AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...FROM SW TO NE. STRATIFORM ISENTROPIC TYPE LIGHT
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY SUN MORNING.
MODELS HINT OF A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS BASICALLY TO BECOME
AN EXTENSION TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAXES BUT DIVERGE-
SOME CONCERNING TONIGHTS LOWS. COULD SEE TONIGHTS MINS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THRUOUT THE VALID ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE
NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCAL TERMINALS
INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE FA...WITH PWS LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. BY LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT. THE SC FIELD JUST OFFSHORE...MAY GET DRAWN
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT JUST BEYOND THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKC CONDITIONS. WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT THRUOUT THE 06Z PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 3 KT DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THRUOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE...PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY...AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH...
THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE
CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE-ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY
...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR
TONIGHT...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN WILL BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU TONIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.0
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MAC







000
FXUS62 KILM 220929
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
429 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD IS
CURRENTLY EITHER IN A TRANSITION TO A NEW PATTERN OR JUST
TEMPORARILY RE-CONFIGURING ITSELF BACK TO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
PATTERN THAT AFFECTS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.S.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BUCKLE. THIS A
RESULT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES FROM THE
DESERT SW U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK.
A S/W LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS PERIOD.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS
THE FA...ILLUSTRATE A RATHER DRY ATM COLUMN TODAY THRU THE 1ST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS EVIDENCED BY PWS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
DRIVE A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE STRATO-CU DECK ONSHORE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS...WITH THE S/W UPPER TROF REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP BOTH GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE SOURCES. AND AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...FROM SW TO NE. STRATIFORM ISENTROPIC TYPE LIGHT
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY SUN MORNING.
MODELS HINT OF A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS BASICALLY TO BECOME
AN EXTENSION TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAXES BUT DIVERGE-
SOME CONCERNING TONIGHTS LOWS. COULD SEE TONIGHTS MINS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THRUOUT THE VALID ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE
NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCAL TERMINALS
INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE FA...WITH PWS LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. BY LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT. THE SC FIELD JUST OFFSHORE...MAY GET DRAWN
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT JUST BEYOND THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKC CONDITIONS. WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT THRUOUT THE 06Z PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 3 KT DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THRUOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE...PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY...AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH...
THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE
CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE-ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY
...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR
TONIGHT...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN WILL BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU TONIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.0
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MAC







000
FXUS62 KILM 220929
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
429 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD IS
CURRENTLY EITHER IN A TRANSITION TO A NEW PATTERN OR JUST
TEMPORARILY RE-CONFIGURING ITSELF BACK TO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
PATTERN THAT AFFECTS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.S.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BUCKLE. THIS A
RESULT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES FROM THE
DESERT SW U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK.
A S/W LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS PERIOD.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS
THE FA...ILLUSTRATE A RATHER DRY ATM COLUMN TODAY THRU THE 1ST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS EVIDENCED BY PWS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
DRIVE A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE STRATO-CU DECK ONSHORE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS...WITH THE S/W UPPER TROF REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP BOTH GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE SOURCES. AND AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...FROM SW TO NE. STRATIFORM ISENTROPIC TYPE LIGHT
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY SUN MORNING.
MODELS HINT OF A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS BASICALLY TO BECOME
AN EXTENSION TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAXES BUT DIVERGE-
SOME CONCERNING TONIGHTS LOWS. COULD SEE TONIGHTS MINS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN
POOLING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A
ORGANIZED FASHION. A LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING
IN TANDEM INCLUDING A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR
THE LOWER LEVELS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY
SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION
CITING THE CONSISTENCY. SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN
UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF
THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER
70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT REMAINS IN
PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED. A SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF
DEVELOPING RAIN WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENVELOPING THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THRUOUT THE VALID ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE
NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCAL TERMINALS
INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE FA...WITH PWS LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. BY LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT. THE SC FIELD JUST OFFSHORE...MAY GET DRAWN
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT JUST BEYOND THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKC CONDITIONS. WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT THRUOUT THE 06Z PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 3 KT DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THRUOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH
PRESSURE...PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY...AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COMPACT HIGH...
THE SFC PG QUICKLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE
CENTER PULLS AWAY. LOOKING AT NE-ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY
...WITH A MORE SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. FOR
TONIGHT...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE MOVING HIGH...WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY VEER TO THE ENE TO ESE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN WILL BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL ILM SC WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT THRU TONIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO FURTHER BUILD BY DAYBREAK SUN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE TYPE WINDS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 TO 5.0
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO 20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE
MIXING PROBABLY KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8
FEET. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP
SEAS WORKED UP. A WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE
MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE
CONSISTENCY TO THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4
FEET TUESDAY AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MAC







000
FXUS62 KILM 220915
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
415 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD IS
CURRENTLY EITHER IN A TRANSITION TO A NEW PATTERN OR JUST
TEMPORARILY RE-CONFIGURING ITSELF BACK TO THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
PATTERN THAT AFFECTS THE EASTERN 1/3RD TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.S.

FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BUCKLE. THIS A
RESULT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W UPPER TROF THAT PUSHES FROM THE
DESERT SW U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK.
A S/W LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE FA THIS PERIOD.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS
THE FA...ILLUSTRATE A RATHER DRY ATM COLUMN TODAY THRU THE 1ST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THIS EVIDENCED BY PWS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD
DRIVE A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE STRATO-CU DECK ONSHORE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.

DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS...WITH THE S/W UPPER TROF REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP BOTH GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE SOURCES. AND AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN...FROM SW TO NE. STRATIFORM ISENTROPIC TYPE LIGHT
PCPN WILL PRIMARILY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY SUN MORNING.
MODELS HINT OF A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS BASICALLY TO BECOME
AN EXTENSION TO THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAXES BUT DIVERGE-
SOME CONCERNING TONIGHTS LOWS. COULD SEE TONIGHTS MINS OCCURRING
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN POOLING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A ORGANIZED FASHION. A
LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING IN TANDEM INCLUDING A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR THE LOWER LEVELS AND
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED
POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION CITING THE CONSISTENCY.
SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW
LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS
NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO
OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE
EXPECTATION OF UPPER 70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT REMAINS IN PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER
CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. A
SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS
SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF DEVELOPING RAIN
WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT
ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ENVELOPING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THRUOUT THE VALID ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE
NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCAL TERMINALS
INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE FA...WITH PWS LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. BY LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT. THE SC FIELD JUST OFFSHORE...MAY GET DRAWN
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT JUST BEYOND THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKC CONDITIONS. WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT THRUOUT THE 06Z PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 3 KT DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THRUOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED SEAS DOWN BY
ABOUT A FOOT. OBS NOW SHOW MOST PLACES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FOOTERS OVER OUR SOUTH
CAROLINA MARINE ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR. IT IS NOT
ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. AS SUCH
WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-
NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL
RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT A CATEGORY.
SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN
THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO SHORE THE DECREASE
IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS
THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE MIXING PROBABLY
KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF THE DECK ARE QUITE
STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8 FEET. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP SEAS WORKED UP. A
WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK
BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE CONSISTENCY TO
THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET TUESDAY
AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MAC
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220825
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY EVENING
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND
AND THE NAM MODEL IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT AFTER 03Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND
10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220825
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY EVENING
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND
AND THE NAM MODEL IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT AFTER 03Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND
10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220825
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY EVENING
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND
AND THE NAM MODEL IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT AFTER 03Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND
10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220825
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY EVENING
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND
AND THE NAM MODEL IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT AFTER 03Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND
10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/JME






000
FXUS62 KILM 220824
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A STEADY DECLINE
THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A CLEAR AND COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

NO SURPRISES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDDED
DATABASE TO ALTER THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO SHOW A SLOWER EVENING
COOL-DOWN. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND MOST PLACES SEEING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A CHILLY
AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD SNAPS
HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A BIG FAN OF
THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO
A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
AS USUALLY SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
AGAIN NOT ARCTIC BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN POOLING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A ORGANIZED FASHION. A
LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING IN TANDEM INCLUDING A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR THE LOWER LEVELS AND
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED
POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION CITING THE CONSISTENCY.
SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW
LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS
NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO
OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE
EXPECTATION OF UPPER 70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT REMAINS IN PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER
CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. A
SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS
SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF DEVELOPING RAIN
WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT
ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ENVELOPING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THRUOUT THE VALID ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE
NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCAL TERMINALS
INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE FA...WITH PWS LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. BY LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT. THE SC FIELD JUST OFFSHORE...MAY GET DRAWN
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT JUST BEYOND THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKC CONDITIONS. WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT THRUOUT THE 06Z PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 3 KT DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THRUOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED SEAS DOWN BY
ABOUT A FOOT. OBS NOW SHOW MOST PLACES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FOOTERS OVER OUR SOUTH
CAROLINA MARINE ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR. IT IS NOT
ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. AS SUCH
WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-
NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL
RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT A CATEGORY.
SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN
THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO SHORE THE DECREASE
IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS
THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE MIXING PROBABLY
KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF THE DECK ARE QUITE
STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8 FEET. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP SEAS WORKED UP. A
WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK
BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE CONSISTENCY TO
THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET TUESDAY
AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MAC








000
FXUS62 KILM 220824
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A STEADY DECLINE
THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A CLEAR AND COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

NO SURPRISES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDDED
DATABASE TO ALTER THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO SHOW A SLOWER EVENING
COOL-DOWN. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND MOST PLACES SEEING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A CHILLY
AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD SNAPS
HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A BIG FAN OF
THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO
A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
AS USUALLY SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
AGAIN NOT ARCTIC BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM...NOW SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
TO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SHEAR OUT BUT COPIOUS MOISTURE NOW SEEN POOLING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN A ORGANIZED FASHION. A
LITANY OF FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE WORKING IN TANDEM INCLUDING A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND SPEED CONVERGENCE FOR THE LOWER LEVELS AND
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE ELEVATED
POPS TO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER MOVING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH BUT OPTED FOR THE GFS SOLUTION CITING THE CONSISTENCY.
SEVERE THREAT PARAMETERS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A LOT OF SHEAR AND LOW
LEVEL HELICITY BUT THE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION. SPC HAS
NOW MOVED ALL AREAS OF THE CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE DAY TWO
OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE MOST NOTABLY THE
EXPECTATION OF UPPER 70S MONDAY COURTESY OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT REMAINS IN PLAY...THIS DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWER
CEILINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. A
SECONDARY DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ONCE ACTS ON ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO PAINTING ANOTHER WET SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OFF AND ON THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS
SCENARIO BUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND 0000 UTC ECMWF DEVELOPING RAIN
WELL INLAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200-300 JET MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH TO
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL IN SHORT
ORDER. BEYOND THIS...A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ENVELOPING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THRUOUT THE VALID ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE
NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCAL TERMINALS
INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE FA...WITH PWS LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. BY LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT. THE SC FIELD JUST OFFSHORE...MAY GET DRAWN
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT JUST BEYOND THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKC CONDITIONS. WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT THRUOUT THE 06Z PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 3 KT DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THRUOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED SEAS DOWN BY
ABOUT A FOOT. OBS NOW SHOW MOST PLACES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FOOTERS OVER OUR SOUTH
CAROLINA MARINE ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR. IT IS NOT
ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. AS SUCH
WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-
NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL
RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT A CATEGORY.
SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN
THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO SHORE THE DECREASE
IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY...WILL RAISE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AM. THIS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS
THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
20-25 KNOTS AND EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE MIXING PROBABLY
KEEPS A GALE WARNING OUT OF PLAY AS THE WINDS OFF THE DECK ARE QUITE
STRONG. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 5-8 FEET. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...AROUND 20 KNOTS TO KEEP SEAS WORKED UP. A
WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FINALLY GIVE MARINERS A BRIEF BREAK
BEGINNING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. BY WEDNESDAY AN ELONGATED LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT IS ENOUGH TO GIVE MORE CONSISTENCY TO
THE WIND DIRECTION...NORTH...NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS AS WELL. SEAS WILL DIP TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET TUESDAY
AND BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MAC







000
FXUS62 KRAH 220800
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS NOTED VERY
DRY AIR AT 850MB WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 40C. THE
TEMPERATURE HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT LEAST AT KTDF...AND
WATCHING THE KRDU OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR THE LOW WAS 25 AS OF THIS
WRITING. FOR TODAY...BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE.
THE HRRR WRF FORECASTS NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...AND WHAT ONE WOULD
CONSIDER LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST LESS. SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM SUGGEST LESS
AS WELL...ALONG WITH THE JET LIFTING NORTH. UNDER EXPECTED SUNSHINE
HIGHS SHOULD BE 50 TO 55.

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY CONTINUING
AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD
MAKE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A
GUSTY CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220800
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS NOTED VERY
DRY AIR AT 850MB WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 40C. THE
TEMPERATURE HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT LEAST AT KTDF...AND
WATCHING THE KRDU OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR THE LOW WAS 25 AS OF THIS
WRITING. FOR TODAY...BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE.
THE HRRR WRF FORECASTS NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...AND WHAT ONE WOULD
CONSIDER LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST LESS. SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM SUGGEST LESS
AS WELL...ALONG WITH THE JET LIFTING NORTH. UNDER EXPECTED SUNSHINE
HIGHS SHOULD BE 50 TO 55.

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY CONTINUING
AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD
MAKE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A
GUSTY CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KILM 220622
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
122 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED
AND WET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A STEADY DECLINE
THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A CLEAR AND COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

NO SURPRISES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDDED
DATABASE TO ALTER THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO SHOW A SLOWER EVENING
COOL-DOWN. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND MOST PLACES SEEING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A CHILLY
AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD SNAPS
HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A BIG FAN OF
THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO
A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
AS USUALLY SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
AGAIN NOT ARCTIC BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS VASTLY CONTRASTING
WEATHER REGIMES SATURDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SATURDAY KICKS OFF
COLD AND CLEAR UNDER SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 25-30 DEGREES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH COASTAL INTERIOR OF SC. THIS IS STILL 5-9
DEGREES BLOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 22.

SUNDAY IN CONTRAST...WARMING IN DAYTIME TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOV
23 ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO AFTN AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND WARM FRONT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SPC RETAINS
SLIGHT/MRGL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. CONFINED THUNDER TO EVENING WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND HIGHEST MLCAPE.

HPC PAINTS ROUGHLY 07.5"-1.25" RAIN FOR NE SC AND SE NC SUNDAY
LOWEST VALUES DEEP SC INTERIOR AND HIGHEST SE NC COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON MONDAY...A DEEPENING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC LAYOUT...IT WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE 70S...AND MOIST
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING WHERE IT THEN
BECOMES STALLED WELL OFFSHORE UNTIL WEDNESDAY PER LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTION. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS MOISTURE AND
SOME ENERGY MAY BACK-BUILD FROM THE FEATURE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO REMAIN
OVERALL DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS AS NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THRUOUT THE VALID ISSUANCE
PERIOD. THE ELONGATED CENTER OF 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE
NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LOCAL TERMINALS
INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE FA...WITH PWS LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. BY LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER WITH HEIGHT. THE SC FIELD JUST OFFSHORE...MAY GET DRAWN
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT JUST BEYOND THE 06Z
ISSUANCE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SKC CONDITIONS. WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT THRUOUT THE 06Z PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 3 KT DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO STRATIFORM RAINS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AFTER THE WFP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR THRUOUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED SEAS DOWN BY
ABOUT A FOOT. OBS NOW SHOW MOST PLACES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FOOTERS OVER OUR SOUTH
CAROLINA MARINE ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR. IT IS NOT
ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. AS SUCH
WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-
NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL
RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT A CATEGORY.
SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN
THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO SHORE THE DECREASE
IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WORKABLE ON SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL WORSEN AS SE-S WINDS MOUNT IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSAGE
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SUNDAY EVENING SEAS LOOK TO PEAK AT
6-9 FEET. STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SUNDAY ALL WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS WARRANT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW
AND THEN NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS
FOR SEAS...WILL SEE 5 TO 7 FTERS ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FTERS LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5 FRET
IN THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE. SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...DCH/MAC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220551
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...

THE CENTER OF A STRONG (1035 MB) COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
DIRECTLY OVER NC BY 12Z/SAT. VERY DRY AND CLEAR AIR WAS IN PLACE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 10-15 RANGE. WINDS HAD ALREADY DIED OFF TO
NIL OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES... AND WILL DO SO BY
MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. WITH 900 PM READINGS ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 20S AT ROXBORO RANGING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN... EXPECT LOWS BY DAYBREAK TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15-20
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY CONTINUING
AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD
MAKE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A
GUSTY CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220551
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...

THE CENTER OF A STRONG (1035 MB) COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
DIRECTLY OVER NC BY 12Z/SAT. VERY DRY AND CLEAR AIR WAS IN PLACE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 10-15 RANGE. WINDS HAD ALREADY DIED OFF TO
NIL OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES... AND WILL DO SO BY
MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. WITH 900 PM READINGS ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 20S AT ROXBORO RANGING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN... EXPECT LOWS BY DAYBREAK TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15-20
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY CONTINUING
AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD
MAKE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A
GUSTY CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 220544
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN NCS PRODUCING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND TO 30 TO 35
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY EVENING
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND
AND THE NAM MODEL IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT AFTER 03Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE N/NE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
DIMINISHING SLOWLY. THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING
VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT
LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF/JME/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/BTC/RF/JME/BM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220544
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN NCS PRODUCING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND TO 30 TO 35
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY EVENING
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND
AND THE NAM MODEL IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT AFTER 03Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE N/NE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
DIMINISHING SLOWLY. THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING
VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT
LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF/JME/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/BTC/RF/JME/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220339
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND
TO 30 TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT WITH MAINLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE N/NE AND SEAS DIMINISHING
SLOWLY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCA TO EXPIRE NORTH OF OCRACOKE AS THE
LATEST BUOY OBS ARE BELOW 6 FEET. HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND
BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/BTC/RF/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220339
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND
TO 30 TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT WITH MAINLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE N/NE AND SEAS DIMINISHING
SLOWLY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCA TO EXPIRE NORTH OF OCRACOKE AS THE
LATEST BUOY OBS ARE BELOW 6 FEET. HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND
BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/BTC/RF/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220339
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND
TO 30 TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT WITH MAINLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE N/NE AND SEAS DIMINISHING
SLOWLY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCA TO EXPIRE NORTH OF OCRACOKE AS THE
LATEST BUOY OBS ARE BELOW 6 FEET. HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND
BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/BTC/RF/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220339
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND
TO 30 TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT WITH MAINLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE N/NE AND SEAS DIMINISHING
SLOWLY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCA TO EXPIRE NORTH OF OCRACOKE AS THE
LATEST BUOY OBS ARE BELOW 6 FEET. HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND
BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/BTC/RF/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220339
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER
THE AREA. DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND
TO 30 TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT WITH MAINLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE N/NE AND SEAS DIMINISHING
SLOWLY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCA TO EXPIRE NORTH OF OCRACOKE AS THE
LATEST BUOY OBS ARE BELOW 6 FEET. HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW
AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND
BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/BTC/RF/BM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 220246
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT... AND NORTH MONDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. SEE DAILY RECORDS FOR 22 NOVEMBER IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...

THE CENTER OF A STRONG (1035 MB) COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
DIRECTLY OVER NC BY 12Z/SAT. VERY DRY AND CLEAR AIR WAS IN PLACE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 10-15 RANGE. WINDS HAD ALREADY DIED OFF TO
NIL OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES... AND WILL DO SO BY
MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. WITH 900 PM READINGS ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 20S AT ROXBORO RANGING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN... EXPECT LOWS BY DAYBREAK TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15-20
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY... YIELDING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT (~5-7 KTS OR LESS) OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY... AS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVES TROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY SENDING SOME RAIN AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220246
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT... AND NORTH MONDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. SEE DAILY RECORDS FOR 22 NOVEMBER IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...

THE CENTER OF A STRONG (1035 MB) COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
DIRECTLY OVER NC BY 12Z/SAT. VERY DRY AND CLEAR AIR WAS IN PLACE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 10-15 RANGE. WINDS HAD ALREADY DIED OFF TO
NIL OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES... AND WILL DO SO BY
MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. WITH 900 PM READINGS ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 20S AT ROXBORO RANGING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN... EXPECT LOWS BY DAYBREAK TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15-20
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY... YIELDING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT (~5-7 KTS OR LESS) OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY... AS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVES TROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY SENDING SOME RAIN AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KILM 220229
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
929 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED
AND WET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A STEADY DECLINE
THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING A CLEAR AND COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

NO SURPRISES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDDED
DATABASE TO ALTER THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO SHOW A SLOWER EVENING
COOL-DOWN. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND MOST PLACES SEEING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A CHILLY
AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD SNAPS
HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A BIG FAN OF
THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO
A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
AS USUALLY SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
AGAIN NOT ARCTIC BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS VASTLY CONTRASTING
WEATHER REGIMES SATURDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SATURDAY KICKS OFF
COLD AND CLEAR UNDER SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 25-30 DEGREES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH COASTAL INTERIOR OF SC. THIS IS STILL 5-9
DEGREES BLOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 22.

SUNDAY IN CONTRAST...WARMING IN DAYTIME TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOV
23 ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO AFTN AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND WARM FRONT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SPC RETAINS
SLIGHT/MRGL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. CONFINED THUNDER TO EVENING WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND HIGHEST MLCAPE.

HPC PAINTS ROUGHLY 07.5"-1.25" RAIN FOR NE SC AND SE NC SUNDAY
LOWEST VALUES DEEP SC INTERIOR AND HIGHEST SE NC COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON MONDAY...A DEEPENING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC LAYOUT...IT WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE 70S...AND MOIST
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING WHERE IT THEN
BECOMES STALLED WELL OFFSHORE UNTIL WEDNESDAY PER LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTION. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS MOISTURE AND
SOME ENERGY MAY BACK-BUILD FROM THE FEATURE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO REMAIN
OVERALL DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS AS NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HERE AS
HIGH CONFIDENCE PREVAILS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS WELL ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE UP AROUND H8 WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH THAT SOME CLOUDS CAN
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDING FROM THE NAM/GFS3 ALSO SHOWS THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB AND SUGGESTS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUT WITH WINDS
OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NE AROUND 4-5 KNOTS IT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
MIX THE LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS OR FOG TO
DEVELOP AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE
FEW CLOUDS AT AROUND 5-6K FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAF. WILL KEPT THE TERMINALS SKC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED SEAS DOWN BY
ABOUT A FOOT. OBS NOW SHOW MOST PLACES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FOOTERS OVER OUR SOUTH
CAROLINA MARINE ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR. IT IS NOT
ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. AS SUCH
WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-
NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL
RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT A CATEGORY.
SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN
THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO SHORE THE DECREASE
IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WORKABLE ON SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL WORSEN AS SE-S WINDS MOUNT IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSAGE
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SUNDAY EVENING SEAS LOOK TO PEAK AT
6-9 FEET. STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SUNDAY ALL WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS WARRANT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW
AND THEN NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS
FOR SEAS...WILL SEE 5 TO 7 FTERS ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FTERS LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5 FRET
IN THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE. SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220010
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
709 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER NC TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOME AND VEER OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT
LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY... YIELDING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT (~5-7 KTS OR LESS) OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY... AS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVES TROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY SENDING SOME RAIN AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220010
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
709 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER NC TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOME AND VEER OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT
LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY... YIELDING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT (~5-7 KTS OR LESS) OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY... AS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVES TROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY SENDING SOME RAIN AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 220006
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR KEEPING SKIES
CLR. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND TO 30
TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT WITH MAINLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 15 TO 20 KTS CSTL WTRS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER OUTER CNTRL AND
NRN WTRS. HAVE SCA CONT FOR WATER N OF OCRACOKE THRU MID TO LATE
EVENING FOR THESE SEAS. LATER TONIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT
AND BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/BTC/RF






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220006
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW WITH DRY AIR KEEPING SKIES
CLR. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND TO 30
TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT WITH MAINLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT
SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 15 TO 20 KTS CSTL WTRS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER OUTER CNTRL AND
NRN WTRS. HAVE SCA CONT FOR WATER N OF OCRACOKE THRU MID TO LATE
EVENING FOR THESE SEAS. LATER TONIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT
AND BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC/RF
MARINE...CGG/BTC/RF







000
FXUS62 KILM 212337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED
AND WET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...NO SURPRISES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. HAVE
TWEAKED THE GRIDDED DATABASE TO ALTER THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO
SHOW A SLOWER EVENING COOL-DOWN. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MOST PLACES SEEING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A CHILLY
AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD SNAPS
HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A BIG FAN OF
THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO
A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
AS USUALLY SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
AGAIN NOT ARCTIC BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS VASTLY CONTRASTING
WEATHER REGIMES SATURDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SATURDAY KICKS OFF
COLD AND CLEAR UNDER SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 25-30 DEGREES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH COASTAL INTERIOR OF SC. THIS IS STILL 5-9
DEGREES BLOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 22.

SUNDAY IN CONTRAST...WARMING IN DAYTIME TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOV
23 ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO AFTN AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND WARM FRONT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SPC RETAINS
SLIGHT/MRGL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. CONFINED THUNDER TO EVENING WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND HIGHEST MLCAPE.

HPC PAINTS ROUGHLY 07.5"-1.25" RAIN FOR NE SC AND SE NC SUNDAY
LOWEST VALUES DEEP SC INTERIOR AND HIGHEST SE NC COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON MONDAY...A DEEPENING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC LAYOUT...IT WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE 70S...AND MOIST
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING WHERE IT THEN
BECOMES STALLED WELL OFFSHORE UNTIL WEDNESDAY PER LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTION. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS MOISTURE AND
SOME ENERGY MAY BACK-BUILD FROM THE FEATURE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO REMAIN
OVERALL DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS AS NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HERE AS
HIGH CONFIDENCE PREVAILS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS WELL ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE UP AROUND H8 WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH THAT SOME CLOUDS CAN
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDING FROM THE NAM/GFS3 ALSO SHOWS THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB AND SUGGESTS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUT WITH WINDS
OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NE AROUND 4-5 KNOTS IT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
MIX THE LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS OR FOG TO
DEVELOP AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE
FEW CLOUDS AT AROUND 5-6K FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAF. WILL KEPT THE TERMINALS SKC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE HAVE
INITIALIZED SEAS DOWN BY ABOUT A FOOT. OBS NOW SHOW MOST PLACES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
4 FOOTERS OVER OUR SOUTH CAROLINA MARINE ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR. IT IS NOT
ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. AS SUCH
WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-
NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL
RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT A CATEGORY.
SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN
THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO SHORE THE DECREASE
IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WORKABLE ON SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL WORSEN AS SE-S WINDS MOUNT IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSAGE
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SUNDAY EVENING SEAS LOOK TO PEAK AT
6-9 FEET. STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SUNDAY ALL WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS WARRANT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW
AND THEN NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS
FOR SEAS...WILL SEE 5 TO 7 FTERS ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FTERS LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5 FRET
IN THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE. SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 212337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED
AND WET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...NO SURPRISES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. HAVE
TWEAKED THE GRIDDED DATABASE TO ALTER THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO
SHOW A SLOWER EVENING COOL-DOWN. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MOST PLACES SEEING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A CHILLY
AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD SNAPS
HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A BIG FAN OF
THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO
A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
AS USUALLY SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
AGAIN NOT ARCTIC BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS VASTLY CONTRASTING
WEATHER REGIMES SATURDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SATURDAY KICKS OFF
COLD AND CLEAR UNDER SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 25-30 DEGREES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH COASTAL INTERIOR OF SC. THIS IS STILL 5-9
DEGREES BLOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 22.

SUNDAY IN CONTRAST...WARMING IN DAYTIME TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOV
23 ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO AFTN AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND WARM FRONT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SPC RETAINS
SLIGHT/MRGL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. CONFINED THUNDER TO EVENING WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND HIGHEST MLCAPE.

HPC PAINTS ROUGHLY 07.5"-1.25" RAIN FOR NE SC AND SE NC SUNDAY
LOWEST VALUES DEEP SC INTERIOR AND HIGHEST SE NC COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON MONDAY...A DEEPENING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC LAYOUT...IT WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE 70S...AND MOIST
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING WHERE IT THEN
BECOMES STALLED WELL OFFSHORE UNTIL WEDNESDAY PER LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTION. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS MOISTURE AND
SOME ENERGY MAY BACK-BUILD FROM THE FEATURE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO REMAIN
OVERALL DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS AS NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HERE AS
HIGH CONFIDENCE PREVAILS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS WELL ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE UP AROUND H8 WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH THAT SOME CLOUDS CAN
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDING FROM THE NAM/GFS3 ALSO SHOWS THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB AND SUGGESTS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUT WITH WINDS
OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NE AROUND 4-5 KNOTS IT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
MIX THE LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS OR FOG TO
DEVELOP AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE
FEW CLOUDS AT AROUND 5-6K FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAF. WILL KEPT THE TERMINALS SKC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE HAVE
INITIALIZED SEAS DOWN BY ABOUT A FOOT. OBS NOW SHOW MOST PLACES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
4 FOOTERS OVER OUR SOUTH CAROLINA MARINE ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR. IT IS NOT
ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. AS SUCH
WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-
NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL
RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT A CATEGORY.
SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN
THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO SHORE THE DECREASE
IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WORKABLE ON SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL WORSEN AS SE-S WINDS MOUNT IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSAGE
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SUNDAY EVENING SEAS LOOK TO PEAK AT
6-9 FEET. STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SUNDAY ALL WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS WARRANT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW
AND THEN NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS
FOR SEAS...WILL SEE 5 TO 7 FTERS ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FTERS LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5 FRET
IN THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE. SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 212337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED
AND WET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...NO SURPRISES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. HAVE
TWEAKED THE GRIDDED DATABASE TO ALTER THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO
SHOW A SLOWER EVENING COOL-DOWN. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MOST PLACES SEEING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A CHILLY
AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD SNAPS
HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A BIG FAN OF
THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO
A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
AS USUALLY SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
AGAIN NOT ARCTIC BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS VASTLY CONTRASTING
WEATHER REGIMES SATURDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SATURDAY KICKS OFF
COLD AND CLEAR UNDER SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 25-30 DEGREES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH COASTAL INTERIOR OF SC. THIS IS STILL 5-9
DEGREES BLOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 22.

SUNDAY IN CONTRAST...WARMING IN DAYTIME TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOV
23 ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO AFTN AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND WARM FRONT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SPC RETAINS
SLIGHT/MRGL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. CONFINED THUNDER TO EVENING WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND HIGHEST MLCAPE.

HPC PAINTS ROUGHLY 07.5"-1.25" RAIN FOR NE SC AND SE NC SUNDAY
LOWEST VALUES DEEP SC INTERIOR AND HIGHEST SE NC COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON MONDAY...A DEEPENING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC LAYOUT...IT WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE 70S...AND MOIST
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING WHERE IT THEN
BECOMES STALLED WELL OFFSHORE UNTIL WEDNESDAY PER LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTION. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS MOISTURE AND
SOME ENERGY MAY BACK-BUILD FROM THE FEATURE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO REMAIN
OVERALL DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS AS NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HERE AS
HIGH CONFIDENCE PREVAILS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS WELL ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE UP AROUND H8 WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH THAT SOME CLOUDS CAN
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDING FROM THE NAM/GFS3 ALSO SHOWS THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB AND SUGGESTS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUT WITH WINDS
OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NE AROUND 4-5 KNOTS IT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
MIX THE LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS OR FOG TO
DEVELOP AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE
FEW CLOUDS AT AROUND 5-6K FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAF. WILL KEPT THE TERMINALS SKC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE HAVE
INITIALIZED SEAS DOWN BY ABOUT A FOOT. OBS NOW SHOW MOST PLACES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
4 FOOTERS OVER OUR SOUTH CAROLINA MARINE ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR. IT IS NOT
ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. AS SUCH
WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-
NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL
RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT A CATEGORY.
SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN
THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO SHORE THE DECREASE
IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WORKABLE ON SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL WORSEN AS SE-S WINDS MOUNT IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSAGE
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SUNDAY EVENING SEAS LOOK TO PEAK AT
6-9 FEET. STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SUNDAY ALL WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS WARRANT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW
AND THEN NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS
FOR SEAS...WILL SEE 5 TO 7 FTERS ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FTERS LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5 FRET
IN THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE. SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 212337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED
AND WET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...NO SURPRISES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. HAVE
TWEAKED THE GRIDDED DATABASE TO ALTER THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO
SHOW A SLOWER EVENING COOL-DOWN. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MOST PLACES SEEING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A CHILLY
AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD SNAPS
HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A BIG FAN OF
THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO
A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
AS USUALLY SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE.
AGAIN NOT ARCTIC BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED WITH NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS VASTLY CONTRASTING
WEATHER REGIMES SATURDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SATURDAY KICKS OFF
COLD AND CLEAR UNDER SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 25-30 DEGREES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH COASTAL INTERIOR OF SC. THIS IS STILL 5-9
DEGREES BLOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 22.

SUNDAY IN CONTRAST...WARMING IN DAYTIME TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOV
23 ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO AFTN AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND WARM FRONT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SPC RETAINS
SLIGHT/MRGL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. CONFINED THUNDER TO EVENING WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND HIGHEST MLCAPE.

HPC PAINTS ROUGHLY 07.5"-1.25" RAIN FOR NE SC AND SE NC SUNDAY
LOWEST VALUES DEEP SC INTERIOR AND HIGHEST SE NC COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON MONDAY...A DEEPENING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE AREA SITS UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC LAYOUT...IT WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE 70S...AND MOIST
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING WHERE IT THEN
BECOMES STALLED WELL OFFSHORE UNTIL WEDNESDAY PER LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTION. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS MOISTURE AND
SOME ENERGY MAY BACK-BUILD FROM THE FEATURE OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO REMAIN
OVERALL DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS AS NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HERE AS
HIGH CONFIDENCE PREVAILS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS WELL ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE UP AROUND H8 WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH THAT SOME CLOUDS CAN
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDING FROM THE NAM/GFS3 ALSO SHOWS THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB AND SUGGESTS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BUT WITH WINDS
OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NE AROUND 4-5 KNOTS IT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
MIX THE LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
AIR MASS OVERHEAD TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS OR FOG TO
DEVELOP AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE
FEW CLOUDS AT AROUND 5-6K FEET BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE TAF. WILL KEPT THE TERMINALS SKC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE HAVE
INITIALIZED SEAS DOWN BY ABOUT A FOOT. OBS NOW SHOW MOST PLACES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
4 FOOTERS OVER OUR SOUTH CAROLINA MARINE ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR. IT IS NOT
ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. AS SUCH
WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-
NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WILL
RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT A CATEGORY.
SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN
THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO SHORE THE DECREASE
IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WORKABLE ON SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL WORSEN AS SE-S WINDS MOUNT IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSAGE
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SUNDAY EVENING SEAS LOOK TO PEAK AT
6-9 FEET. STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SUNDAY ALL WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS WARRANT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW
AND THEN NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS
FOR SEAS...WILL SEE 5 TO 7 FTERS ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FTERS LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5 FRET
IN THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE. SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 212040
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED
AND WET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING
JUST ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
A CHILLY AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT
COLD SNAPS HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A
BIG FAN OF THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED DUE TO A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING THROUGH
ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AS USUALLY
SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE. AGAIN NOT ARCTIC
BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED WITH
NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS VASTLY CONTRASTING
WEATHER REGIMES SATURDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SATURDAY KICKS OFF
COLD AND CLEAR UNDER SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 25-30 DEGREES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH COASTAL INTERIOR OF SC. THIS IS STILL
5-9 DEGREES BLOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 22.

SUNDAY IN CONTRAST...WARMING IN DAYTIME TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOV
23 ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO AFTN AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND WARM FRONT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SPC RETAINS
SLIGHT/MRGL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. CONFINED THUNDER TO EVENING WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND HIGHEST MLCAPE.

HPC PAINTS ROUGHLY 07.5"-1.25" RAIN FOR NE SC AND SE NC SUNDAY
LOWEST VALUES DEEP SC INTERIOR AND HIGHEST SE NC COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON MONDAY...A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. AS THE AREA
SITS UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC LAYOUT...IT WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE 70S...AND MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OFFSHORE MONDAY
EVENING WHERE IT THEN BECOMES STALLED WELL OFFSHORE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
PER LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTION. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...AS MOISTURE AND SOME ENERGY MAY BACK-BUILD FROM THE FEATURE
OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 40S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO REMAIN OVERALL
DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS AS NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 20Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD
AT KFLO/KLBT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOMEWHAT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOP. EXPECT ONLY SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AROUND 10 KT. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CLEAR SKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES VFR...BUT NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS/GFS TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CIG TO OCCUR.
CONSIDERING STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE VERTICAL IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KCRE/KMYR BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF
COLD AIR. IT IS NOT ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE
AS HIGH. AS SUCH WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT
CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING
INTO TONIGHT WILL RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT
A CATEGORY. SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE
FORECAST ZONES IN THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO
SHORE THE DECREASE IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE
SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WORKABLE ON SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL WORSEN AS SE-S WINDS MOUNT IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSAGE
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SUNDAY EVENING SEAS LOOK TO PEAK AT
6-9 FEET. STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SUNDAY ALL WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS WARRANT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW
AND THEN NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS
FOR SEAS...WILL SEE 5 TO 7 FTERS ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FTERS LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5 FRET
IN THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE. SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR/MBB







000
FXUS62 KILM 212040
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING
MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH UNSETTLED
AND WET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE COVERING
JUST ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
A CHILLY AIRMASS IT IS NOT OF POLAR ORIGIN AS SOME OF OUR RECENT
COLD SNAPS HAVE BEEN. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT A
BIG FAN OF THE COLD IS THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED DUE TO A LIGHT NE WIND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED IN NOT ONLY THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MOS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO IN FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER DEVELOPING THROUGH
ABOUT 4-5KFT RATHER THAN A SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AS USUALLY
SEEN IN BITTERLY COLD AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. EVEN SO TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE. AGAIN NOT ARCTIC
BUT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED WITH
NOT ONLY A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS BUT ALSO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS VASTLY CONTRASTING
WEATHER REGIMES SATURDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SATURDAY KICKS OFF
COLD AND CLEAR UNDER SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 25-30 DEGREES...REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH COASTAL INTERIOR OF SC. THIS IS STILL
5-9 DEGREES BLOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 22.

SUNDAY IN CONTRAST...WARMING IN DAYTIME TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOV
23 ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...ESPECIALLY INTO AFTN AS DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND WARM FRONT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SPC RETAINS
SLIGHT/MRGL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. CONFINED THUNDER TO EVENING WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND HIGHEST MLCAPE.

HPC PAINTS ROUGHLY 07.5"-1.25" RAIN FOR NE SC AND SE NC SUNDAY
LOWEST VALUES DEEP SC INTERIOR AND HIGHEST SE NC COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON MONDAY...A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. AS THE AREA
SITS UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC LAYOUT...IT WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE 70S...AND MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OFFSHORE MONDAY
EVENING WHERE IT THEN BECOMES STALLED WELL OFFSHORE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
PER LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTION. WILL KEEP LOWER POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...AS MOISTURE AND SOME ENERGY MAY BACK-BUILD FROM THE FEATURE
OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 40S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO REMAIN OVERALL
DRY WITH PASSING CLOUDS AS NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 20Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD
AT KFLO/KLBT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOMEWHAT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOP. EXPECT ONLY SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AROUND 10 KT. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CLEAR SKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES VFR...BUT NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS/GFS TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CIG TO OCCUR.
CONSIDERING STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE VERTICAL IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KCRE/KMYR BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...THE AREA REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A SURGE OF
COLD AIR. IT IS NOT ARCTIC AIR AND THEREFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIRMASS (CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH) WILL NOT BE
AS HIGH. AS SUCH WE WILL NOT SEE ANY ADVISORIES OR EVEN 5 FT
CAUTIONARY HEADLINE-NECESSITATING SEAS. MODERATE NE WINDS HEADING
INTO TONIGHT WILL RELAX AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT
A CATEGORY. SEAS MAINLY ABATE ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE
FORECAST ZONES IN THE STRONGLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THAT IS NEARER TO
SHORE THE DECREASE IN SEAS WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE DUE TO WAVE
SHADOWING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WORKABLE ON SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL WORSEN AS SE-S WINDS MOUNT IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PASSAGE
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SUNDAY EVENING SEAS LOOK TO PEAK AT
6-9 FEET. STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SUNDAY ALL WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS WARRANT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WNW
AND THEN NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. AS
FOR SEAS...WILL SEE 5 TO 7 FTERS ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FTERS LATE ON TUESDAY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 5 FRET
IN THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE. SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE N WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR/MBB








000
FXUS62 KRAH 211934
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER NC TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOME AND VEER OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT
LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CURRENT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD VEER AND ABATE
AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFT/EVE INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW
VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KMHX 211907
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
207 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW WITH
DRY AIR KEEPING SKIES CLR. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND TO 30 TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT
WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MID AFTN WILL
DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE
MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL LEAD
TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 15 TO 20 KTS CSTL
WTRS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET
OVER OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. HAVE SCA CONT FOR WATER N OF
OCRACOKE THRU MID TO LATE EVENING FOR THESE SEAS. LATER TONIGHT
AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH
DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS
DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/CGG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211907
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
207 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW WITH
DRY AIR KEEPING SKIES CLR. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND TO 30 TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT
WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MID AFTN WILL
DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE
MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL LEAD
TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 15 TO 20 KTS CSTL
WTRS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET
OVER OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. HAVE SCA CONT FOR WATER N OF
OCRACOKE THRU MID TO LATE EVENING FOR THESE SEAS. LATER TONIGHT
AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH
DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS
DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/CGG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211907
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
207 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW WITH
DRY AIR KEEPING SKIES CLR. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND TO 30 TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT
WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MID AFTN WILL
DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE
MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL LEAD
TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 15 TO 20 KTS CSTL
WTRS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET
OVER OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. HAVE SCA CONT FOR WATER N OF
OCRACOKE THRU MID TO LATE EVENING FOR THESE SEAS. LATER TONIGHT
AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH
DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS
DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/CGG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211907
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
207 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW WITH
DRY AIR KEEPING SKIES CLR. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 INLAND TO 30 TO 35 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT WITH
MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT. AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 151 PM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SOME DIVERGENCE WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
AMPLIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAPS THE
WARM WATERS OFFSHORE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...BUT LOW
CAPE VALUES. GFS SHERBE VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW 1.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AS MAIN ENERGY DIGS INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE. ECMWF
KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO SHORE WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFSENS IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKER. EITHER
WAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING AS DEEP A LAYER
OF MOISTURE AS IN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB...WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THIS TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW OC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT
WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MID AFTN WILL
DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE
MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER AREA TAFS.
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON POSITION OF THE FRONT BUT SUBVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WILL LEAD
TO DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 15 TO 20 KTS CSTL
WTRS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET
OVER OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. HAVE SCA CONT FOR WATER N OF
OCRACOKE THRU MID TO LATE EVENING FOR THESE SEAS. LATER TONIGHT
AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH
DIR MAINLY NE LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING VARIABLE SAT. AS WINDS
DIMINISH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THRU THE DAY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL DETERMINE
WIND DIRECTION BUT IN GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN SOUTHERN WATERS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE IN THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE
WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS COULD
APPROACH 14 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS MONDAY. FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG THE COASTAL OR OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT SO
CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WORSE
CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/CGG







000
FXUS62 KRAH 211751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1251 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CURRENT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD VEER AND ABATE
AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFT/EVE INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW
VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1251 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CURRENT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD VEER AND ABATE
AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFT/EVE INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW
VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KILM 211726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM BREWING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. EXPECT MILDER BUT WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AHEAD OF THEIR
FORECAST CURVE A BIT AND MAY NEED JUST A FEW DEGREES TO BREATHE OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. THAT IS, MAY RAISE HIGHS JUST A TAD. OTHERWISE THE
COOL ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE RISES A BIT. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN NORMAL N-S GRADIENT IN HIGHS TODAY AS THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY
SAT MORNING...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA...
WITH FLOW FROM CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM
CHANGE OR JUST TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL
FIGURE THAT ONE OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRU-OUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
KFLO/KLBT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOMEWHAT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOP. EXPECT ONLY SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AROUND 10 KT. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AFTER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES VFR...BUT NAM
BUFFER SOUNDINGS/GFS TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CIG TO OCCUR. CONSIDERING STRONG DIVERGENCE
IN THE VERTICAL IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT
KCRE/KMYR BY THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...A REAL BORDERLINE SCEC CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN
WATERS. TREND AT 41013 HAS BEEN THAT OF SUBSIDING SEAS BUT WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS NEXT FEW HOURS IN A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION AND SOME 5 FT SEAS SHOULD BE PLAGUING THE OUTER
REACHES OF NRN TWO ZONES. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BENEFIT ENOUGH
FROM WAVE SHADOWING AND OFFSHORE WINDS TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. LOOKING
AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE CFP. A
TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AHEAD
OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC
AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE.
WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5
FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF
THE AREA WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 211726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM BREWING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. EXPECT MILDER BUT WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AHEAD OF THEIR
FORECAST CURVE A BIT AND MAY NEED JUST A FEW DEGREES TO BREATHE OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. THAT IS, MAY RAISE HIGHS JUST A TAD. OTHERWISE THE
COOL ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE RISES A BIT. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN NORMAL N-S GRADIENT IN HIGHS TODAY AS THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY
SAT MORNING...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA...
WITH FLOW FROM CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM
CHANGE OR JUST TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL
FIGURE THAT ONE OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRU-OUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
KFLO/KLBT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOMEWHAT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOP. EXPECT ONLY SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AROUND 10 KT. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AFTER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES VFR...BUT NAM
BUFFER SOUNDINGS/GFS TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CIG TO OCCUR. CONSIDERING STRONG DIVERGENCE
IN THE VERTICAL IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT
KCRE/KMYR BY THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...A REAL BORDERLINE SCEC CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN
WATERS. TREND AT 41013 HAS BEEN THAT OF SUBSIDING SEAS BUT WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS NEXT FEW HOURS IN A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION AND SOME 5 FT SEAS SHOULD BE PLAGUING THE OUTER
REACHES OF NRN TWO ZONES. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BENEFIT ENOUGH
FROM WAVE SHADOWING AND OFFSHORE WINDS TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. LOOKING
AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE CFP. A
TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AHEAD
OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC
AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE.
WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5
FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF
THE AREA WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 211726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM BREWING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. EXPECT MILDER BUT WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AHEAD OF THEIR
FORECAST CURVE A BIT AND MAY NEED JUST A FEW DEGREES TO BREATHE OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. THAT IS, MAY RAISE HIGHS JUST A TAD. OTHERWISE THE
COOL ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE RISES A BIT. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN NORMAL N-S GRADIENT IN HIGHS TODAY AS THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY
SAT MORNING...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA...
WITH FLOW FROM CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM
CHANGE OR JUST TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL
FIGURE THAT ONE OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRU-OUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
KFLO/KLBT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOMEWHAT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOP. EXPECT ONLY SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AROUND 10 KT. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AFTER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES VFR...BUT NAM
BUFFER SOUNDINGS/GFS TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CIG TO OCCUR. CONSIDERING STRONG DIVERGENCE
IN THE VERTICAL IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT
KCRE/KMYR BY THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...A REAL BORDERLINE SCEC CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN
WATERS. TREND AT 41013 HAS BEEN THAT OF SUBSIDING SEAS BUT WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS NEXT FEW HOURS IN A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION AND SOME 5 FT SEAS SHOULD BE PLAGUING THE OUTER
REACHES OF NRN TWO ZONES. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BENEFIT ENOUGH
FROM WAVE SHADOWING AND OFFSHORE WINDS TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. LOOKING
AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE CFP. A
TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AHEAD
OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC
AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE.
WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5
FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF
THE AREA WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 211726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM BREWING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. EXPECT MILDER BUT WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AHEAD OF THEIR
FORECAST CURVE A BIT AND MAY NEED JUST A FEW DEGREES TO BREATHE OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. THAT IS, MAY RAISE HIGHS JUST A TAD. OTHERWISE THE
COOL ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE RISES A BIT. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN NORMAL N-S GRADIENT IN HIGHS TODAY AS THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY
SAT MORNING...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA...
WITH FLOW FROM CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM
CHANGE OR JUST TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL
FIGURE THAT ONE OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRU-OUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
KFLO/KLBT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOMEWHAT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOP. EXPECT ONLY SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AROUND 10 KT. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
AFTER THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES VFR...BUT NAM
BUFFER SOUNDINGS/GFS TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CIG TO OCCUR. CONSIDERING STRONG DIVERGENCE
IN THE VERTICAL IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT
KCRE/KMYR BY THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA/ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COASTAL TERMINALS. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA
COASTAL TERMINALS DEVELOPING WEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
MVFR/-RA EARLY WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...A REAL BORDERLINE SCEC CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN
WATERS. TREND AT 41013 HAS BEEN THAT OF SUBSIDING SEAS BUT WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS NEXT FEW HOURS IN A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION AND SOME 5 FT SEAS SHOULD BE PLAGUING THE OUTER
REACHES OF NRN TWO ZONES. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BENEFIT ENOUGH
FROM WAVE SHADOWING AND OFFSHORE WINDS TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. LOOKING
AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE CFP. A
TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AHEAD
OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC
AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE.
WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5
FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF
THE AREA WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1208 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...FCST ON TRACK WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW KEEPING SKIES CLR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 45 FAR N
TO LOWER 50S FAR S. CURRENT BREEZY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
TWRD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT
WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MID AFTN WILL
DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE
MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD...WILL CONT SCA CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS AS N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL MAINTAIN SOME 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
OUTER WATERS INTO THE EVENING.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK









000
FXUS62 KMHX 211708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1208 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...FCST ON TRACK WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW KEEPING SKIES CLR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 45 FAR N
TO LOWER 50S FAR S. CURRENT BREEZY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
TWRD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT
WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MID AFTN WILL
DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE
MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD...WILL CONT SCA CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS AS N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL MAINTAIN SOME 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
OUTER WATERS INTO THE EVENING.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK









000
FXUS62 KMHX 211708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1208 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...FCST ON TRACK WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW KEEPING SKIES CLR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 45 FAR N
TO LOWER 50S FAR S. CURRENT BREEZY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
TWRD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT
WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MID AFTN WILL
DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE
MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD...WILL CONT SCA CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS AS N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL MAINTAIN SOME 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
OUTER WATERS INTO THE EVENING.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK









000
FXUS62 KMHX 211708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1208 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...FCST ON TRACK WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW KEEPING SKIES CLR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 45 FAR N
TO LOWER 50S FAR S. CURRENT BREEZY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
TWRD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. COLD/DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU SAT
WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU MID AFTN WILL
DIMINISH AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT AS ALL GDNCE
MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1205 PM FRIDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD...WILL CONT SCA CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS AS N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL MAINTAIN SOME 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
OUTER WATERS INTO THE EVENING.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK









000
FXUS62 KRAH 211525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KILM 211449
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
936 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM BREWING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. EXPECT MILDER BUT WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AHEAD OF THEIR
FORECAST CURVE A BIT AND MAY NEED JUST A FEW DEGREES TO BREATHE OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. THAT IS, MAY RAISE HIGHS JUST A TAD. OTHERWISE THE
COOL ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE RISES A BIT. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN NORMAL N-S GRADIENT IN HIGHS TODAY AS THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY
SAT MORNING...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA...
WITH FLOW FROM CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM
CHANGE OR JUST TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL
FIGURE THAT ONE OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD. PER KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE NNW-NNE AT 10-15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS WELL
INTO THE TEENS. BY AND AFTER SUNSET FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO
NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA.
TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...A REAL BORDERLINE SCEC CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN
WATERS. TREND AT 41013 HAS BEEN THAT OF SUBSIDING SEAS BUT WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS NEXT FEW HOURS IN A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION AND SOME 5 FT SEAS SHOULD BE PLAGUING THE OUTER
REACHES OF NRN TWO ZONES. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BENEFIT ENOUGH
FROM WAVE SHADOWING AND OFFSHORE WINDS TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. LOOKING
AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE CFP. A
TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AHEAD
OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC
AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE.
WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5
FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF
THE AREA WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 211449
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
936 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM BREWING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. EXPECT MILDER BUT WET
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AHEAD OF THEIR
FORECAST CURVE A BIT AND MAY NEED JUST A FEW DEGREES TO BREATHE OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. THAT IS, MAY RAISE HIGHS JUST A TAD. OTHERWISE THE
COOL ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE RISES A BIT. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN NORMAL N-S GRADIENT IN HIGHS TODAY AS THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY
SAT MORNING...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA...
WITH FLOW FROM CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM
CHANGE OR JUST TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL
FIGURE THAT ONE OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD. PER KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE NNW-NNE AT 10-15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS WELL
INTO THE TEENS. BY AND AFTER SUNSET FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO
NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA.
TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...A REAL BORDERLINE SCEC CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN
WATERS. TREND AT 41013 HAS BEEN THAT OF SUBSIDING SEAS BUT WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS NEXT FEW HOURS IN A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION AND SOME 5 FT SEAS SHOULD BE PLAGUING THE OUTER
REACHES OF NRN TWO ZONES. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BENEFIT ENOUGH
FROM WAVE SHADOWING AND OFFSHORE WINDS TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. LOOKING
AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE CFP. A
TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AHEAD
OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC
AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE.
WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5
FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF
THE AREA WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211417
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
917 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY.
BUMPED UP INIT TEMPS A BIT TO MATCH OBS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREV DISC...THE DRY COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW OF COLD DRY AIR. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR (OUTSIDE PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS) BUT LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE COOL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST THEN EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH WHILE THE AIRMASS
REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OUTSIDE OF
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT BRIEFLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...WL END SCA PAMLICO SOUND AND SRN WTRS AS
N/NW WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN FROM THE NW. WILL CONT SCA CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP A BIT LONGER HERE AND SEAS WILL LINGER NEAR 6 FT OUTER
WTRS.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211417
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
917 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY.
BUMPED UP INIT TEMPS A BIT TO MATCH OBS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREV DISC...THE DRY COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW OF COLD DRY AIR. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR (OUTSIDE PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS) BUT LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE COOL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST THEN EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH WHILE THE AIRMASS
REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OUTSIDE OF
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT BRIEFLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...WL END SCA PAMLICO SOUND AND SRN WTRS AS
N/NW WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN FROM THE NW. WILL CONT SCA CNTRL AND NRN WTRS AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP A BIT LONGER HERE AND SEAS WILL LINGER NEAR 6 FT OUTER
WTRS.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK







000
FXUS62 KRAH 211155
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWED SOME DEW POINTS IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAVING FALLEN INTO THE TEENS...AND THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND DRY EVEN MORE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
FALLING TO AROUND 10F TO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB
ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO
AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE
LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING
TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING.
SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NOTICED
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET
AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY
AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS IS LIKELY DUE...IN PART...TO SOME UPSTREAM
ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO WANE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS
MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST
A FEW GUSTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211155
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWED SOME DEW POINTS IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAVING FALLEN INTO THE TEENS...AND THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND DRY EVEN MORE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
FALLING TO AROUND 10F TO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB
ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO
AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE
LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING
TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING.
SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NOTICED
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET
AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY
AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS IS LIKELY DUE...IN PART...TO SOME UPSTREAM
ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO WANE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS
MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST
A FEW GUSTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 211155
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWED SOME DEW POINTS IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAVING FALLEN INTO THE TEENS...AND THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND DRY EVEN MORE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
FALLING TO AROUND 10F TO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB
ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO
AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE
LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING
TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING.
SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NOTICED
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET
AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY
AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS IS LIKELY DUE...IN PART...TO SOME UPSTREAM
ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO WANE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS
MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST
A FEW GUSTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KILM 211114
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
614 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM BREWING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. EXPECT MILDER
...BUT WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY
SAT MORNING...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA...
WITH FLOW FROM CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM
CHANGE OR JUST TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL
FIGURE THAT ONE OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD. PER KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE NNW-NNE AT 10-15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS WELL
INTO THE TEENS. BY AND AFTER SUNSET FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO
NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA.
TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. LOOKING
AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE CFP. A
TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AHEAD
OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC
AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE.
WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5
FT...WITH THE HIEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF
THE AREA WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 211114
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
614 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM BREWING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. EXPECT MILDER
...BUT WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY
SAT MORNING...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA...
WITH FLOW FROM CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM
CHANGE OR JUST TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL
FIGURE THAT ONE OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD. PER KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE NNW-NNE AT 10-15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS WELL
INTO THE TEENS. BY AND AFTER SUNSET FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO
NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA.
TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. LOOKING
AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE CFP. A
TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AHEAD
OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC
AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE.
WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5
FT...WITH THE HIEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF
THE AREA WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR





000
FXUS62 KMHX 211107
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
607 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW OF COLD DRY AIR.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR (OUTSIDE PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS) BUT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE COOL HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST THEN EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH WHILE THE AIRMASS
REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OUTSIDE OF
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT BRIEFLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211107
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
607 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW OF COLD DRY AIR.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR (OUTSIDE PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS) BUT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE COOL HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST THEN EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH WHILE THE AIRMASS
REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OUTSIDE OF
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT BRIEFLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK






000
FXUS62 KILM 210914
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
414 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS...THE
REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING MILDER...BUT WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY SAT
MORNING...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA WITH FLOW FROM
CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM CHANGE OR JUST
TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL FIGURE THAT ONE
OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AM. THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH OF THE FA AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK FRI. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM THE W AROUND 5 KT TO THE
NNW-NNE AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
WELL INTO THE TEENS DURING DAYLIGHT FRI. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO AOB 6 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR/MVFR TYPE CIGS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STRATIFORM
RAINS ON SUN THRU SUN NIGHT...BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK FRI.
LOOKING AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE
CFP. A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY
AHEAD OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC AREA BY
DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE. WITH A
SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FT...WITH THE
HIEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF THE AREA WATERS
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 210914
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
414 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS...THE
REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING MILDER...BUT WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY SAT
MORNING...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA WITH FLOW FROM
CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM CHANGE OR JUST
TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL FIGURE THAT ONE
OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AM. THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH OF THE FA AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK FRI. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM THE W AROUND 5 KT TO THE
NNW-NNE AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
WELL INTO THE TEENS DURING DAYLIGHT FRI. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO AOB 6 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR/MVFR TYPE CIGS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STRATIFORM
RAINS ON SUN THRU SUN NIGHT...BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK FRI.
LOOKING AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE
CFP. A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY
AHEAD OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC AREA BY
DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE. WITH A
SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FT...WITH THE
HIEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF THE AREA WATERS
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 210914
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
414 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS...THE
REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING MILDER...BUT WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY SAT
MORNING...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA WITH FLOW FROM
CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM CHANGE OR JUST
TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL FIGURE THAT ONE
OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AM. THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH OF THE FA AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK FRI. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM THE W AROUND 5 KT TO THE
NNW-NNE AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
WELL INTO THE TEENS DURING DAYLIGHT FRI. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO AOB 6 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR/MVFR TYPE CIGS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STRATIFORM
RAINS ON SUN THRU SUN NIGHT...BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK FRI.
LOOKING AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE
CFP. A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY
AHEAD OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC AREA BY
DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE. WITH A
SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FT...WITH THE
HIEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF THE AREA WATERS
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL










000
FXUS62 KILM 210914
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
414 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS...THE
REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING MILDER...BUT WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY SAT
MORNING...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA WITH FLOW FROM
CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM CHANGE OR JUST
TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL FIGURE THAT ONE
OUT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC
WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY
AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS
MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK
WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN
CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA
ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND
TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES
UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING
AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING
TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF
TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF
SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON
THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND
TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL
MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AM. THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH OF THE FA AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK FRI. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM THE W AROUND 5 KT TO THE
NNW-NNE AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
WELL INTO THE TEENS DURING DAYLIGHT FRI. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO AOB 6 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR/MVFR TYPE CIGS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STRATIFORM
RAINS ON SUN THRU SUN NIGHT...BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS THRU NOON TODAY.

SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK FRI.
LOOKING AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE
CFP. A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY
AHEAD OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC AREA BY
DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE. WITH A
SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FT...WITH THE
HIEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF THE AREA WATERS
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO
15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING
AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP
TO 4 TO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC
LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20
KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5
FT BY LATE TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/SGL










000
FXUS62 KMHX 210904
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
404 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
COAST BY 09Z FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW OF COLD DRY AIR. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE COOL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW AFTER
06Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST LATE AND THEN NORTH ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT BRIEFLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210904
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
404 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
COAST BY 09Z FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW OF COLD DRY AIR. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE COOL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW AFTER
06Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST LATE AND THEN NORTH ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT BRIEFLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210904
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
404 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
COAST BY 09Z FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW OF COLD DRY AIR. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE COOL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW AFTER
06Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST LATE AND THEN NORTH ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT BRIEFLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210904
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
404 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENTUALLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
COAST BY 09Z FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW OF COLD DRY AIR. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE COOL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE 30S WHERE MIXING WILL PROMOTE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS
INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
THE MID 50S WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE AREA
OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE LOW LIFTING OFF THE COAST KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY...AGAIN THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AS WELL. STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW AFTER
06Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST LATE AND THEN NORTH ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT BRIEFLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TODAY. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FLOW 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS IN TURN WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NC WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E/SE
AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES
AND STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NLY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TUES INTO WED. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL IN REGARDS
TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK






000
FXUS62 KRAH 210734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. MSAS SHOWED THE SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AND SOON THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FALLING FROM AROUND 10 TO THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE
NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS
AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING. SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH MAY BE NOTICED ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING
ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY
CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE QUITE POSSIBLY
DUE TO SOME UPSTREAM ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING EAST BY THEN. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS
A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. MSAS SHOWED THE SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AND SOON THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FALLING FROM AROUND 10 TO THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE
NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS
AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING. SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH MAY BE NOTICED ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING
ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY
CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE QUITE POSSIBLY
DUE TO SOME UPSTREAM ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING EAST BY THEN. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS
A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. MSAS SHOWED THE SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AND SOON THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FALLING FROM AROUND 10 TO THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE
NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS
AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING. SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH MAY BE NOTICED ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING
ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY
CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE QUITE POSSIBLY
DUE TO SOME UPSTREAM ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING EAST BY THEN. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS
A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KMHX 210532
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SE
VIRGINIA TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD BE OFF OF
THE NC COAST BY 09Z. NIL WEATHER OR CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE BUT JET STREAM CIRRUS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST.
COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INVADE OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
INLAND AND AROUND 40 COAST BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM THURSDAY...CAA WITH RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BUT HIGHS TEMPS ONLY
MID 40S N TO AROUND 50 SOUTH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND THE STRENGTH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH NC/VA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS
SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO THE MID 50S WITH E/SE
RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG
SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATION DISCREPANCIES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN
THE 12Z 11/26 ECMWF/GFS. THE GFS SHIFTS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OFF THE COAST...FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO REMOVE POPS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 17.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FINALLY PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO REMOVE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO
THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW AFTER 06Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST LATE AND THEN NORTH ON FRIDAY WHILE
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT BRIEFLY
IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING
AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. GUSTY W/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS LATE
THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU VERY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY THEN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LEANED TO NWPS AND PREVIOUS FCST FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING NEAR 7 FT
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SOME 6 FT CONTINUING OUTER
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO FRI EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...NW TO N WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND VEER TO EAST THEN SE. SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH
SCA EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO E/SE AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THROUGH 12Z MODELS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 12 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION...THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...JME/SK/DAG
MARINE...JBM/BTC/JME/SK/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210532
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...THE DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SE
VIRGINIA TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD BE OFF OF
THE NC COAST BY 09Z. NIL WEATHER OR CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE BUT JET STREAM CIRRUS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST.
COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INVADE OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
INLAND AND AROUND 40 COAST BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM THURSDAY...CAA WITH RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BUT HIGHS TEMPS ONLY
MID 40S N TO AROUND 50 SOUTH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND THE STRENGTH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH NC/VA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS
SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO THE MID 50S WITH E/SE
RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG
SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATION DISCREPANCIES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN
THE 12Z 11/26 ECMWF/GFS. THE GFS SHIFTS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OFF THE COAST...FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO REMOVE POPS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 17.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FINALLY PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO REMOVE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO
THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW AFTER 06Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST LATE AND THEN NORTH ON FRIDAY WHILE
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT BRIEFLY
IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING
AND DEEPER MIXING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. GUSTY W/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS LATE
THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU VERY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY THEN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LEANED TO NWPS AND PREVIOUS FCST FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING NEAR 7 FT
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SOME 6 FT CONTINUING OUTER
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO FRI EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...NW TO N WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND VEER TO EAST THEN SE. SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH
SCA EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO E/SE AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THROUGH 12Z MODELS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 12 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION...THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...JME/SK/DAG
MARINE...JBM/BTC/JME/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KILM 210451
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1151 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS...THE
REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING MILDER...BUT WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS BEING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM ABOUT
PHILADELPHIA, PA...TO KNOXVILLE, TN...TO JACKSON, MS. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE SE...BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE
E-TO-W ORIENTATION AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND EVEN VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS PROGGED THANKS TO VERY LOW PWATS IN THE
COLUMN. THE BIGGEST NOTICEABLE IMPACT WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT AND A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP.

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...W/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THANKS TO A
PINCHED GRADIENT...AND THUS TEMPS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL
TONIGHT. EXCEPT ONLY A VERY SLOW FALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE
WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FROPA...EXPECTED BETWEEN 2AM AND DAWN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...CAA WILL OCCUR IN EARNEST AND TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY UNTIL MORNING. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT MIN TEMP
FORECAST...BUT MOS NUMBERS ARE IN TERRIFIC AGREEMENT. HAVE USED A
CONSENSUS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE FROPA WILL OCCUR
LATER...BUT GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE NORTH WHERE A
LONGER PERIOD OF CAA WILL OCCUR. THUS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 IN THE FAR NW TO ABOUT 37 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...DRY
AND COOL. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ADDITIONAL COOLING TO
THE AREA KEEPING MAX/MIN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN KY AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MIGRATE
TO RALEIGH NC 12Z SATURDAY TO OFFSHORE ALONG 35N BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD RETURN FLOW AND MOUNTING COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL TREND...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. APPEARS THE AREA MAY BE GRAZED WITH
HIGH ALTITUDE ICE CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY EXPECTED.

COLDEST PART OF THIS PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.
MILDEST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE PEAK HEATING OF SATURDAY
WITH MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO LOW/MID 60S SC INTERIOR. LIGHT WIND THIS
PERIOD EXPECT MODERATE WIND VERY BEGINNING AND END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INCLUDING THE NAM AT 84
HOURS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ALIGNED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS DUE TO THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE. AS
WE DRAW CLOSER...ITS WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT SEVERE PARAMETERS AND
THESE YIELD A HIGH SHEAR...NEAR 60 KNOTS 0-6 KM AND LOW
CAPE...LESS THAN 200 J/KG EVENT. WHILE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW IT
REMAINS WORTH MONITORING IN COMING DAYS.

BEYOND SUNDAY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE MOISTURE
DEPICTION CONTINUES TO JOG EAST AND WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS SO WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE VALUES WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROUGHING FINALLY MOVES BELT OF MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A SECOND AND MORE POTENT
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES AND A QUICK SHOT OF
VERY COLD AIR...AGAIN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...VERY MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AM. THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH OF THE FA AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK FRI. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM THE W AROUND 5 KT TO THE
NNW-NNE AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
WELL INTO THE TEENS DURING DAYLIGHT FRI. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO AOB 6 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR/MVFR TYPE CIGS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STRATIFORM
RAINS ON SUN THRU SUN NIGHT...BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NW...AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH...IS CREATING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN. W/SW WINDS HAVE BEEN
AROUND 15 KTS AT THE BUOYS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CREATE A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT 15-20 KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 2-4
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND A FEW 5 FOOTERS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY OF THE NC WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THESE WINDS AND SEAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS AND THUS NO SCEC CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS TO KICK-OFF FRIDAY
WITH 15-20 KT NNW-NNE WIND FOLLOWING DAYBREAK FRIDAY...IN WAKE OF
A PRE-DAWN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF BREAK/LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
LATE SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER TO SE 10 KT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS OFF LAND. SE WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
WATERS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR 15-20 KT
WIND AND 4-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE MAY BE NEEDED VERY EARLY SATURDAY
BUT FOR THE MOST PART WIND ALREADY EASING BY THIS TIME THOUGH SEAS
MAY STILL BE AGITATED. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20NM WATERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RAMP SEAS QUICKLY UP FROM 1-3 FEET TO 6-8 FEET BY DAYS END.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS RUGGED MONDAY AS THE
FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS TO 15-20 KNOTS.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA MONDAY... 4-6 FEET DROPPING TO 3-5 FEET TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KILM 210451
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1151 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS...THE
REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING MILDER...BUT WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS BEING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM ABOUT
PHILADELPHIA, PA...TO KNOXVILLE, TN...TO JACKSON, MS. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE SE...BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE
E-TO-W ORIENTATION AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND EVEN VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS PROGGED THANKS TO VERY LOW PWATS IN THE
COLUMN. THE BIGGEST NOTICEABLE IMPACT WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT AND A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP.

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...W/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THANKS TO A
PINCHED GRADIENT...AND THUS TEMPS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL
TONIGHT. EXCEPT ONLY A VERY SLOW FALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE
WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FROPA...EXPECTED BETWEEN 2AM AND DAWN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...CAA WILL OCCUR IN EARNEST AND TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY UNTIL MORNING. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT MIN TEMP
FORECAST...BUT MOS NUMBERS ARE IN TERRIFIC AGREEMENT. HAVE USED A
CONSENSUS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE FROPA WILL OCCUR
LATER...BUT GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE NORTH WHERE A
LONGER PERIOD OF CAA WILL OCCUR. THUS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 IN THE FAR NW TO ABOUT 37 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...DRY
AND COOL. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ADDITIONAL COOLING TO
THE AREA KEEPING MAX/MIN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN KY AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MIGRATE
TO RALEIGH NC 12Z SATURDAY TO OFFSHORE ALONG 35N BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD RETURN FLOW AND MOUNTING COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL TREND...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. APPEARS THE AREA MAY BE GRAZED WITH
HIGH ALTITUDE ICE CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY EXPECTED.

COLDEST PART OF THIS PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.
MILDEST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE PEAK HEATING OF SATURDAY
WITH MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO LOW/MID 60S SC INTERIOR. LIGHT WIND THIS
PERIOD EXPECT MODERATE WIND VERY BEGINNING AND END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INCLUDING THE NAM AT 84
HOURS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ALIGNED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS DUE TO THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE. AS
WE DRAW CLOSER...ITS WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT SEVERE PARAMETERS AND
THESE YIELD A HIGH SHEAR...NEAR 60 KNOTS 0-6 KM AND LOW
CAPE...LESS THAN 200 J/KG EVENT. WHILE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW IT
REMAINS WORTH MONITORING IN COMING DAYS.

BEYOND SUNDAY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE MOISTURE
DEPICTION CONTINUES TO JOG EAST AND WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS SO WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE VALUES WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROUGHING FINALLY MOVES BELT OF MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A SECOND AND MORE POTENT
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES AND A QUICK SHOT OF
VERY COLD AIR...AGAIN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...VERY MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD AS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AM. THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH OF THE FA AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK FRI. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM THE W AROUND 5 KT TO THE
NNW-NNE AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
WELL INTO THE TEENS DURING DAYLIGHT FRI. BY AND AFTER SUNSET
FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO AOB 6 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR/MVFR TYPE CIGS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STRATIFORM
RAINS ON SUN THRU SUN NIGHT...BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. FOR TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NW...AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH...IS CREATING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN. W/SW WINDS HAVE BEEN
AROUND 15 KTS AT THE BUOYS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CREATE A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT 15-20 KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 2-4
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND A FEW 5 FOOTERS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY OF THE NC WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THESE WINDS AND SEAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS AND THUS NO SCEC CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS TO KICK-OFF FRIDAY
WITH 15-20 KT NNW-NNE WIND FOLLOWING DAYBREAK FRIDAY...IN WAKE OF
A PRE-DAWN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF BREAK/LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
LATE SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER TO SE 10 KT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS OFF LAND. SE WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
WATERS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR 15-20 KT
WIND AND 4-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE MAY BE NEEDED VERY EARLY SATURDAY
BUT FOR THE MOST PART WIND ALREADY EASING BY THIS TIME THOUGH SEAS
MAY STILL BE AGITATED. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20NM WATERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RAMP SEAS QUICKLY UP FROM 1-3 FEET TO 6-8 FEET BY DAYS END.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS RUGGED MONDAY AS THE
FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS TO 15-20 KNOTS.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA MONDAY... 4-6 FEET DROPPING TO 3-5 FEET TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210326
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1026 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY COLD FRONT OVER SE VIRGINIA POISED TO DROP THRU EASTERN NC IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHING
IN BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT. ONLY CLOUDINESS WILL BE SOME CI SKIRTING
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. W-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH
MORE THRU MIDNIGHT...BUT INVADING COLDER AIR MASS WILL DROP TEMPS
INTO LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND AROUND 40 COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM THURSDAY...CAA WITH RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BUT HIGHS TEMPS ONLY
MID 40S N TO AROUND 50 SOUTH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND THE STRENGTH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH NC/VA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS
SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO THE MID 50S WITH E/SE
RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG
SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATION DISCREPANCIES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN
THE 12Z 11/26 ECMWF/GFS. THE GFS SHIFTS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OFF THE COAST...FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO REMOVE POPS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 17.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FINALLY PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO REMOVE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO
THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TONIGHT. WSW WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NW AND N TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAY SEE A FEW WINDS GUSTS TO 18-20
KT AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE THEN WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THRU THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. GUSTY W/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING WILL
SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

LEANED TO NWPS AND PREVIOUS FCST FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING NEAR 7 FT
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SOME 6 FT CONTINUING OUTER
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO FRI EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...NW TO N WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND VEER TO EAST THEN SE. SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH
SCA EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO E/SE AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THROUGH 12Z MODELS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 12 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION...THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/SK/DAG
MARINE...JBM/BTC/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210326
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1026 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY COLD FRONT OVER SE VIRGINIA POISED TO DROP THRU EASTERN NC IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHING
IN BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT. ONLY CLOUDINESS WILL BE SOME CI SKIRTING
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. W-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH
MORE THRU MIDNIGHT...BUT INVADING COLDER AIR MASS WILL DROP TEMPS
INTO LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND AROUND 40 COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM THURSDAY...CAA WITH RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BUT HIGHS TEMPS ONLY
MID 40S N TO AROUND 50 SOUTH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDING WITH TIMING OF A POTENT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE LESS UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH HOW FAR THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND THE STRENGTH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH NC/VA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THICKNESS INCREASE TO 1320-1330 METERS
SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO THE MID 50S WITH E/SE
RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

A ROBUST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATING A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LIMITED CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY WHICH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG
SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATION DISCREPANCIES HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN
THE 12Z 11/26 ECMWF/GFS. THE GFS SHIFTS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OFF THE COAST...FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO REMOVE POPS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 17.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FINALLY PUSHING THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO REMOVE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
AROUND 70 SUNDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY...THEN COOL BACK INTO
THE 60S TUESDAY AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TONIGHT. WSW WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NW AND N TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAY SEE A FEW WINDS GUSTS TO 18-20
KT AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE THEN WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THRU THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND. GUSTY W/SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING WILL
SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

LEANED TO NWPS AND PREVIOUS FCST FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING NEAR 7 FT
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SOME 6 FT CONTINUING OUTER
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO FRI EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...NW TO N WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND VEER TO EAST THEN SE. SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH
SCA EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO E/SE AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT.

A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND COULD EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF GALES LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THROUGH 12Z MODELS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 7-10 FT SUN...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 12 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW AROUND 15-25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING
AROUND 7-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION...THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/SK/DAG
MARINE...JBM/BTC/SK/DAG







000
FXUS62 KRAH 210300
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS (HIGH CONFIDENCE). LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 05/06 KTS OR LESS...
WITH WIND SPEED GENERALLY ONLY INCREASING TO 06 TO 10 KTS BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-17 KTS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI FRIDAY MORNING... BEFORE THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BSD/KC
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210300
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS (HIGH CONFIDENCE). LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 05/06 KTS OR LESS...
WITH WIND SPEED GENERALLY ONLY INCREASING TO 06 TO 10 KTS BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-17 KTS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI FRIDAY MORNING... BEFORE THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BSD/KC
CLIMATE...RAH



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210300
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS (HIGH CONFIDENCE). LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 05/06 KTS OR LESS...
WITH WIND SPEED GENERALLY ONLY INCREASING TO 06 TO 10 KTS BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-17 KTS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI FRIDAY MORNING... BEFORE THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BSD/KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KILM 210255
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
955 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS...THE
REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING MILDER...BUT WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS BEING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM ABOUT
PHILADELPHIA, PA...TO KNOXVILLE, TN...TO JACKSON, MS. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE SE...BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE
E-TO-W ORIENTATION AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND EVEN VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS PROGGED THANKS TO VERY LOW PWATS IN THE
COLUMN. THE BIGGEST NOTICEABLE IMPACT WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT AND A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP.

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...W/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THANKS TO A
PINCHED GRADIENT...AND THUS TEMPS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL
TONIGHT. EXCEPT ONLY A VERY SLOW FALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE
WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FROPA...EXPECTED BETWEEN 2AM AND DAWN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...CAA WILL OCCUR IN EARNEST AND TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY UNTIL MORNING. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT MIN TEMP
FORECAST...BUT MOS NUMBERS ARE IN TERRIFIC AGREEMENT. HAVE USED A
CONSENSUS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE FROPA WILL OCCUR
LATER...BUT GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE NORTH WHERE A
LONGER PERIOD OF CAA WILL OCCUR. THUS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 IN THE FAR NW TO ABOUT 37 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...DRY
AND COOL. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ADDITIONAL COOLING TO
THE AREA KEEPING MAX/MIN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN KY AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MIGRATE
TO RALEIGH NC 12Z SATURDAY TO OFFSHORE ALONG 35N BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD RETURN FLOW AND MOUNTING COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL TREND...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. APPEARS THE AREA MAY BE GRAZED WITH
HIGH ALTITUDE ICE CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY EXPECTED.

COLDEST PART OF THIS PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.
MILDEST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE PEAK HEATING OF SATURDAY
WITH MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO LOW/MID 60S SC INTERIOR. LIGHT WIND THIS
PERIOD EXPECT MODERATE WIND VERY BEGINNING AND END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INCLUDING THE NAM AT 84
HOURS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ALIGNED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS DUE TO THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE. AS
WE DRAW CLOSER...ITS WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT SEVERE PARAMETERS AND
THESE YIELD A HIGH SHEAR...NEAR 60 KNOTS 0-6 KM AND LOW
CAPE...LESS THAN 200 J/KG EVENT. WHILE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW IT
REMAINS WORTH MONITORING IN COMING DAYS.

BEYOND SUNDAY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE MOISTURE
DEPICTION CONTINUES TO JOG EAST AND WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS SO WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE VALUES WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROUGHING FINALLY MOVES BELT OF MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A SECOND AND MORE POTENT
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES AND A QUICK SHOT OF
VERY COLD AIR...AGAIN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...VERY MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. EXPECT FEW/SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA AS A DRY COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY
WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
DROP TO AOB 8 KTS...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY
-RA. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NW...AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH...IS CREATING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN. W/SW WINDS HAVE BEEN
AROUND 15 KTS AT THE BUOYS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CREATE A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT 15-20 KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 2-4
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND A FEW 5 FOOTERS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY OF THE NC WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THESE WINDS AND SEAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS AND THUS NO SCEC CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS TO KICK-OFF FRIDAY
WITH 15-20 KT NNW-NNE WIND FOLLOWING DAYBREAK FRIDAY...IN WAKE OF
A PRE-DAWN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF BREAK/LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
LATE SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER TO SE 10 KT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS OFF LAND. SE WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
WATERS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR 15-20 KT
WIND AND 4-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE MAY BE NEEDED VERY EARLY SATURDAY
BUT FOR THE MOST PART WIND ALREADY EASING BY THIS TIME THOUGH SEAS
MAY STILL BE AGITATED. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20NM WATERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RAMP SEAS QUICKLY UP FROM 1-3 FEET TO 6-8 FEET BY DAYS END.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS RUGGED MONDAY AS THE
FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS TO 15-20 KNOTS.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA MONDAY... 4-6 FEET DROPPING TO 3-5 FEET TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 210255
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
955 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS...THE
REGION. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BRINGING MILDER...BUT WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS BEING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM ABOUT
PHILADELPHIA, PA...TO KNOXVILLE, TN...TO JACKSON, MS. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE SE...BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE
E-TO-W ORIENTATION AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND EVEN VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS PROGGED THANKS TO VERY LOW PWATS IN THE
COLUMN. THE BIGGEST NOTICEABLE IMPACT WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT AND A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP.

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...W/SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THANKS TO A
PINCHED GRADIENT...AND THUS TEMPS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL
TONIGHT. EXCEPT ONLY A VERY SLOW FALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT ONCE
WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FROPA...EXPECTED BETWEEN 2AM AND DAWN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...CAA WILL OCCUR IN EARNEST AND TEMPS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY UNTIL MORNING. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT MIN TEMP
FORECAST...BUT MOS NUMBERS ARE IN TERRIFIC AGREEMENT. HAVE USED A
CONSENSUS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE FROPA WILL OCCUR
LATER...BUT GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS FOR THE NORTH WHERE A
LONGER PERIOD OF CAA WILL OCCUR. THUS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 IN THE FAR NW TO ABOUT 37 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD...DRY
AND COOL. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS ADDITIONAL COOLING TO
THE AREA KEEPING MAX/MIN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN KY AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MIGRATE
TO RALEIGH NC 12Z SATURDAY TO OFFSHORE ALONG 35N BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD RETURN FLOW AND MOUNTING COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL TREND...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. APPEARS THE AREA MAY BE GRAZED WITH
HIGH ALTITUDE ICE CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY EXPECTED.

COLDEST PART OF THIS PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S BEACHES AND ICW LOCALS.
MILDEST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE PEAK HEATING OF SATURDAY
WITH MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO LOW/MID 60S SC INTERIOR. LIGHT WIND THIS
PERIOD EXPECT MODERATE WIND VERY BEGINNING AND END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INCLUDING THE NAM AT 84
HOURS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ALIGNED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS DUE TO THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE. AS
WE DRAW CLOSER...ITS WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT SEVERE PARAMETERS AND
THESE YIELD A HIGH SHEAR...NEAR 60 KNOTS 0-6 KM AND LOW
CAPE...LESS THAN 200 J/KG EVENT. WHILE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW IT
REMAINS WORTH MONITORING IN COMING DAYS.

BEYOND SUNDAY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE MOISTURE
DEPICTION CONTINUES TO JOG EAST AND WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS SO WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE VALUES WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. DEEP TROUGHING FINALLY MOVES BELT OF MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A SECOND AND MORE POTENT
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES AND A QUICK SHOT OF
VERY COLD AIR...AGAIN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS
REMAIN IN PLACE...VERY MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. EXPECT FEW/SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA AS A DRY COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY
WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
DROP TO AOB 8 KTS...WITH SKIES CLEARING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY
-RA. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NW...AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH...IS CREATING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN. W/SW WINDS HAVE BEEN
AROUND 15 KTS AT THE BUOYS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CREATE A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT 15-20 KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 2-4
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND A FEW 5 FOOTERS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY OF THE NC WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THESE WINDS AND SEAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY THRESHOLDS AND THUS NO SCEC CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS TO KICK-OFF FRIDAY
WITH 15-20 KT NNW-NNE WIND FOLLOWING DAYBREAK FRIDAY...IN WAKE OF
A PRE-DAWN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF BREAK/LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
LATE SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER TO SE 10 KT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS OFF LAND. SE WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
WATERS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR 15-20 KT
WIND AND 4-5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE MAY BE NEEDED VERY EARLY SATURDAY
BUT FOR THE MOST PART WIND ALREADY EASING BY THIS TIME THOUGH SEAS
MAY STILL BE AGITATED. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED
ON THE 0-20NM WATERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS A POTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS DEVELOPS. THIS
WILL RAMP SEAS QUICKLY UP FROM 1-3 FEET TO 6-8 FEET BY DAYS END.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS RUGGED MONDAY AS THE
FLOW BACKS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS TO 15-20 KNOTS.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA MONDAY... 4-6 FEET DROPPING TO 3-5 FEET TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK





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