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000
FXUS62 KRAH 161435
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS L/W TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE E-NE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THEN STRENGTHEN AND BECOME ANCHORED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO CONFLUENT MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL N-NE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN CAA
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH AS 50-55M
BELOW NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S APPEAR ON TARGET AT THIS
TIME. -WSS

TONIGHT: (NEAR) RECORD COLD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1305 METERS AT GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB
RISE TONIGHT IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR
MOST AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A
STRONGER MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT
TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE
RANGE...FROM 27-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN
AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO 33-37 DEGREES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY (NE) CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...AND MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF IFR-MVFR CLOUDS INTO COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
EVEN BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1000 FT...AROUND 12Z THU...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE FLOW WILL THEN EXPAND
WESTWARD AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST
ABOVE 3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
THEN POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THU MORNING...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS



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000
FXUS62 KMHX 161408
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM WED...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL CHILLY
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BEING
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUT BANKS AS MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND CAA. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY...LOWERING OF THE THICKNESS...TEMPS WILL BE REACHING TO THE
LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S OVER OBX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED... DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 40S OVER OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM WED...SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF NORTHER CAROLINA. CAA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE LATE FRIDAY AS ECMWF CUTS A LOW OFF IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WHILE GFSENS MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVES IT OFF THE
FL EAST COAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH BEING DEVELOPED BY THE GFS. AS
PER PMDHMD...GFS UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WIND SPEED
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

LOW EXPECTED TO LIFE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR
RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
CONDITIONS AS VFR WITH SCT DECK AROUND 2500 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. EASTERN TAFS MAY HAVE SUB VFR AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THIS LOW AFFECTS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM WED...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WELL
OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING IN THE
MID 30S KT AND SEAS UP TO 11 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 40-45KT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS TODAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNINGS
FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...AND SCA FOR THE RIVERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE TODAY...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 9 FT
NEAR SHORE. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM WED...TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WIND AND
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 4 AM WED...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AS A
STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG WINDS
AND A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL
MOON. WITH N/NE TODAY... SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT
TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE
PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO
NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS DECREASE BELOW
GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.
THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE
FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...HSA/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG/CTC
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...HSA/BM/CGG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 161408
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM WED...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL CHILLY
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BEING
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUT BANKS AS MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND CAA. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY...LOWERING OF THE THICKNESS...TEMPS WILL BE REACHING TO THE
LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S OVER OBX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED... DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 40S OVER OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM WED...SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF NORTHER CAROLINA. CAA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE LATE FRIDAY AS ECMWF CUTS A LOW OFF IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WHILE GFSENS MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVES IT OFF THE
FL EAST COAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH BEING DEVELOPED BY THE GFS. AS
PER PMDHMD...GFS UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WIND SPEED
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

LOW EXPECTED TO LIFE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR
RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
CONDITIONS AS VFR WITH SCT DECK AROUND 2500 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. EASTERN TAFS MAY HAVE SUB VFR AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THIS LOW AFFECTS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM WED...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WELL
OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING IN THE
MID 30S KT AND SEAS UP TO 11 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 40-45KT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS TODAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNINGS
FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...AND SCA FOR THE RIVERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE TODAY...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 9 FT
NEAR SHORE. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM WED...TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WIND AND
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 4 AM WED...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AS A
STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG WINDS
AND A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL
MOON. WITH N/NE TODAY... SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT
TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE
PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO
NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS DECREASE BELOW
GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.
THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE
FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...HSA/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG/CTC
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...HSA/BM/CGG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BM






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000
FXUS62 KILM 161405
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND THEN
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY ON THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:05 AM WEDNESDAY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED THROUGHOUT THE CWA
THIS MORNING AS A REMAINING PATCH OF STRATUS HAS NOW CLEARED THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. THE ONE EXCEPTION FOR NOW IS ALONG THE
COAST IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY...WHERE SOME STRATO-CU IS STILL HANGING
ON. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM REMAINS LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRICKLED IN WITH LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS COOLER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY BELOW
FREEZING IN LUMBERTON. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING
MIXED...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING...I
STILL LIKE THE WARMER NAM/MET NUMBERS. LONG STORY SHORT...I AM NOT
ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS. I DO THINK IT
WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN SPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO
FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE CAVEATS/THREATS IS THE GFS NUMBERS DO
VERIFY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE
MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH IN A FAMILIAR WEDGE TYPE PATTERN. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF COAST AND WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING UP
FROM THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN MORE OF A
PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHC OF LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PCP AS EARLY AS THURS MORNING. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURS AND THEN GREATER CHC OF
RAIN FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF
LOW SO THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY PCP
WILL ENTER BACK IN THE FORECAST AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE PCP ON FRI...BUT IT COULD
LAST INTO SATURDAY.

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY THURS AND FRI IN
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND ABOUT 30 DEGREES TO REACH INTO THE 60S.
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COULD HAMPER THIS RISE
AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WEDGE EVOLVES. CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...CLOSER TO 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL NUDGE THE LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER
OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN IN
DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE
SAT INTO SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT MAINLY EXPECT
ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND MID APRIL
SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO 70 UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH INTO MONDAY BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF SHORE AS NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT ALSO GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM EAST WITH
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE ON TUES. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CHC OF
PCP THROUGH TUES AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO THE 70S REMAINING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCU HANGING AROUND...OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. COLD FRONT NOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL HAVE
WINDS GUSTING OCCASIONALLY OVER 25 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEDGE IN THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE ANY STRATUS/FOG INITIALLY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SO
FAR SOUTH. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY
ABOVE 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR STRATUS CIGS EACH
MORNING. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:05 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS GRADUALLY BACK OFF FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 25-30
KNOTS...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OF 15-20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY INTACT. THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 3-8 FEET WILL DROP TO 4-6
FEET LATE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY JUST OFF
SHORE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND RIDES UP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT PERSISTENT NE FLOW
GREATEST OFF SHORE AND DECREASING CLOSER TO THE COAST TO NEAR 10
TO 15 KTS BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS OVER SCA
THRESHOLDS ON THURS TO FINALLY FALL TO 4-6 FT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FURTHER DROP IN SEAS AS WINDS LIGHTEN FURTHER
INTO FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
EAST NUDGING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER OFF
SHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WNA SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT A
SPIKE UP ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY SURGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
     056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
     108.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK





000
FXUS62 KILM 161149
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WILL THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...TWEAKED THE CLOUD COVER...THE NARROW
STRIP PERSISTING BASICALLY BISECTING THE CWA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATE. AS EXPECTED...STRONG WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE EXPECTATIONS. HOPEFULLY...THIS
BODES WELL FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER FOLLOWS:



 HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM REMAINS LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRICKLED IN
WITH LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS COOLER AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY BELOW FREEZING IN LUMBERTON. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING MIXED...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT WE ARE SEEING THIS
MORNING...I STILL LIKE THE WARMER NAM/MET NUMBERS. LONG STORY
SHORT...I AM NOT ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. I DO THINK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN SPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE CAVEATS/THREATS IS
THE GFS NUMBERS DO VERIFY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE
MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH IN A FAMILIAR WEDGE TYPE PATTERN. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF COAST AND WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING UP
FROM THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN MORE OF A
PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHC OF LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PCP AS EARLY AS THURS MORNING. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURS AND THEN GREATER CHC OF
RAIN FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF
LOW SO THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY PCP
WILL ENTER BACK IN THE FORECAST AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE PCP ON FRI...BUT IT COULD
LAST INTO SATURDAY.

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY THURS AND FRI IN
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND ABOUT 30 DEGREES TO REACH INTO THE 60S.
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COULD HAMPER THIS RISE
AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WEDGE EVOLVES. CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...CLOSER TO 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL NUDGE THE LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER
OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN IN
DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE
SAT INTO SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT MAINLY EXPECT
ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND MID APRIL
SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO 70 UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH INTO MONDAY BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF SHORE AS NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT ALSO GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM EAST WITH
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE ON TUES. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CHC OF
PCP THROUGH TUES AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO THE 70S REMAINING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCU HANGING AROUND...OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. COLD FRONT NOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL HAVE
WINDS GUSTING OCCASIONALLY OVER 25 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEDGE IN THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE ANY STRATUS/FOG INITIALLY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SO
FAR SOUTH. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY
ABOVE 5 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR STRATUS CIGS EACH
MORNING. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...STEADY STATE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT RUGGED
CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGES AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS GRADUALLY BACK OFF FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 25-30
KNOTS...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OF 15-20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY INTACT. THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 3-8 FEET WILL DROP TO 4-6
FEET LATE.


SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY JUST OFF
SHORE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND RIDES UP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT PERSISTENT NE FLOW
GREATEST OFF SHORE AND DECREASING CLOSER TO THE COAST TO NEAR 10
TO 15 KTS BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS OVER SCA
THRESHOLDS ON THURS TO FINALLY FALL TO 4-6 FT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FURTHER DROP IN SEAS AS WINDS LIGHTEN FURTHER
INTO FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
EAST NUDGING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER OFF
SHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WNA SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT A
SPIKE UP ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY SURGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KMHX 161140
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. OVERALL CHILLY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BEING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CARTERET COUNTY AND THE
OUT BANKS AS MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND CAA.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY...LOWERING OF THE
THICKNESS...TEMPS WILL BE REACHING TO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S OVER OBX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED... DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 40S OVER OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM WED...SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF NORTHER CAROLINA. CAA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE LATE FRIDAY AS ECMWF CUTS A LOW OFF IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WHILE GFSENS MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVES IT OFF THE
FL EAST COAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH BEING DEVELOPED BY THE GFS. AS
PER PMDHMD...GFS UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WIND SPEED
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

LOW EXPECTED TO LIFE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR
RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
CONDITIONS AS VFR WITH SCT DECK AROUND 2500 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. EASTERN TAFS MAY HAVE SUB VFR AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THIS LOW AFFECTS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WELL
OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING UP 40
KT AND SEAS UP TO 13 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 40-45KT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
TODAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE
SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...AND SCA FOR THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE TODAY...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 9 FT
NEAR SHORE. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM WED...TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WIND AND
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 4 AM WED...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AS A
STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG WINDS
AND A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL
MOON. WITH N/NE TODAY... SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT
TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE
PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO
NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS DECREASE BELOW
GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.
THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE
FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG/CTC
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KRAH 161127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
727 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED FOR HEADLINE SECTION FOR UPGRADE OF FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING...FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM THU...OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HALIFAX AND
NASH COUNTIES.

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S - SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DATE AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: (NEAR) RECORD COLD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1305 METERS AT GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB
RISE TONIGHT IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR
MOST AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A
STRONGER MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT
TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE
RANGE...FROM 27-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN
AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO 33-37 DEGREES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. A FROST ADVISORY WILL
CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE
FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY (NE) CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...AND MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF IFR-MVFR CLOUDS INTO COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
EVEN BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1000 FT...AROUND 12Z THU...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE FLOW WILL THEN EXPAND
WESTWARD AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST
ABOVE 3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
THEN POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THU MORNING...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 161124
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
724 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED FOR HEADLINE SECTION FOR UPGRADE OF FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING...FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM THU...OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HALIFAX AND
NASH COUNTIES.

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S - SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DATE AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: (NEAR) RECORD COLD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1305 METERS AT GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB
RISE TONIGHT IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR
MOST AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A
STRONGER MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT
TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE
RANGE...FROM 27-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN
AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO 33-37 DEGREES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. A FROST ADVISORY WILL
CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE
FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY (NE) CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...AND MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF IFR-MVFR CLOUDS INTO COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
EVEN BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1000 FT...AROUND 12Z THU...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE FLOW WILL THEN EXPAND
WESTWARD AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST
ABOVE 3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
THEN POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 161017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WILL THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...TWEAKED THE CLOUD COVER...THE NARROW
STRIP PERSISTING BASICALLY BISECTING THE CWA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATE. AS EXPECTED...STRONG WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE EXPECTATIONS. HOPEFULLY...THIS
BODES WELL FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER FOLLOWS:



 HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM REMAINS LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRICKLED IN
WITH LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS COOLER AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY BELOW FREEZING IN LUMBERTON. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING MIXED...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT WE ARE SEEING THIS
MORNING...I STILL LIKE THE WARMER NAM/MET NUMBERS. LONG STORY
SHORT...I AM NOT ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. I DO THINK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN SPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE CAVEATS/THREATS IS
THE GFS NUMBERS DO VERIFY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE
MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH IN A FAMILIAR WEDGE TYPE PATTERN. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF COAST AND WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING UP
FROM THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN MORE OF A
PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHC OF LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PCP AS EARLY AS THURS MORNING. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURS AND THEN GREATER CHC OF
RAIN FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF
LOW SO THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY PCP
WILL ENTER BACK IN THE FORECAST AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE PCP ON FRI...BUT IT COULD
LAST INTO SATURDAY.

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY THURS AND FRI IN
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND ABOUT 30 DEGREES TO REACH INTO THE 60S.
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COULD HAMPER THIS RISE
AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WEDGE EVOLVES. CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...CLOSER TO 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL NUDGE THE LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER
OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN IN
DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE
SAT INTO SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT MAINLY EXPECT
ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND MID APRIL
SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO 70 UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH INTO MONDAY BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF SHORE AS NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT ALSO GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM EAST WITH
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE ON TUES. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CHC OF
PCP THROUGH TUES AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO THE 70S REMAINING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TERMINALS AND SKIES HAVE
BECOME SCT. N WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING NE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR STRATUS CIGS
EACH MORNING. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...STEADY STATE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT RUGGED
CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGES AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLLOWS:


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS GRADUALLY BACK OFF FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 25-30
KNOTS...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OF 15-20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY INTACT. THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 3-8 FEET WILL DROP TO 4-6
FEET LATE.


SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY JUST OFF
SHORE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND RIDES UP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT PERSISTENT NE FLOW
GREATEST OFF SHORE AND DECREASING CLOSER TO THE COAST TO NEAR 10
TO 15 KTS BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS OVER SCA
THRESHOLDS ON THURS TO FINALLY FALL TO 4-6 FT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FURTHER DROP IN SEAS AS WINDS LIGHTEN FURTHER
INTO FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
EAST NUDGING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER OFF
SHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WNA SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT A
SPIKE UP ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY SURGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SHK/MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 160830
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WILL THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO
THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM
REMAINS LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRICKLED IN WITH LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS COOLER AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY BELOW FREEZING IN LUMBERTON. WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINING MIXED...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT WE ARE SEEING
THIS MORNING...I STILL LIKE THE WARMER NAM/MET NUMBERS. LONG STORY
SHORT...I AM NOT ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. I DO THINK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN SPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE CAVEATS/THREATS IS
THE GFS NUMBERS DO VERIFY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE
MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH IN A FAMILIAR WEDGE TYPE PATTERN. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF COAST AND WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING UP
FROM THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN MORE OF A
PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHC OF LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PCP AS EARLY AS THURS MORNING. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURS AND THEN GREATER CHC OF
RAIN FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF
LOW SO THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY PCP
WILL ENTER BACK IN THE FORECAST AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE PCP ON FRI...BUT IT COULD
LAST INTO SATURDAY.

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY THURS AND FRI IN
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND ABOUT 30 DEGREES TO REACH INTO THE 60S.
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COULD HAMPER THIS RISE
AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WEDGE EVOLVES. CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...CLOSER TO 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL NUDGE THE LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER
OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN IN
DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE
SAT INTO SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT MAINLY EXPECT
ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND MID APRIL
SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO 70 UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH INTO MONDAY BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF SHORE AS NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT ALSO GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM EAST WITH
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE ON TUES. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CHC OF
PCP THROUGH TUES AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO THE 70S REMAINING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TERMINALS AND SKIES HAVE
BECOME SCT. N WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING NE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR STRATUS CIGS
EACH MORNING. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK OFF FROM THIS
MORNINGS VALUES OF 25-30 KNOTS...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF 15-20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY INTACT. THIS MORNINGS VALUES
OF 3-8 FEET WILL DROP TO 4-6 FEET LATE.


SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY JUST OFF
SHORE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND RIDES UP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT PERSISTENT NE FLOW
GREATEST OFF SHORE AND DECREASING CLOSER TO THE COAST TO NEAR 10
TO 15 KTS BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS OVER SCA
THRESHOLDS ON THURS TO FINALLY FALL TO 4-6 FT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FURTHER DROP IN SEAS AS WINDS LIGHTEN FURTHER
INTO FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
EAST NUDGING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER OFF
SHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WNA SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT A
SPIKE UP ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY SURGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SHK/MRR










000
FXUS62 KMHX 160829
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
429 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...CHILLY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUT BANKS AS MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND CAA. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY...LOWERING OF THE THICKNESS...TEMPS WILL BE REACHING TO THE
LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S OVER OBX



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED... DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 40S OVER OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM WED...SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF NORTHER CAROLINA. CAA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE LATE FRIDAY AS ECMWF CUTS A LOW OFF IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WHILE GFSENS MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVES IT OFF THE
FL EAST COAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH BEING DEVELOPED BY THE GFS. AS
PER PMDHMD...GFS UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WIND SPEED
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

LOW EXPECTED TO LIFE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WED...GUSTY N/NW WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT. DRY AIR
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING
APPROX 9Z. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS
FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. EASTERN TAFS MAY HAVE SUB VFR AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THIS LOW AFFECTS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING UP 40 KT AND SEAS UP TO 13 FT FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 40-45KT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS TODAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL
WATERS...AND SCA FOR THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE
OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE TODAY...AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 9 FT NEAR SHORE. STRONG N/NE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM WED...TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WIND AND
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 4 AM WED...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AS A
STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG WINDS
AND A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL
MOON. WITH N/NE TODAY... SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT
TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE
PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO
NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS DECREASE BELOW
GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.
THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE
FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG/CTC
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BM/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 160829
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
429 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...CHILLY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUT BANKS AS MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND CAA. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY...LOWERING OF THE THICKNESS...TEMPS WILL BE REACHING TO THE
LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S OVER OBX



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED... DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 40S OVER OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM WED...SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF NORTHER CAROLINA. CAA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE LATE FRIDAY AS ECMWF CUTS A LOW OFF IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WHILE GFSENS MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVES IT OFF THE
FL EAST COAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH BEING DEVELOPED BY THE GFS. AS
PER PMDHMD...GFS UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WIND SPEED
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

LOW EXPECTED TO LIFE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WED...GUSTY N/NW WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT. DRY AIR
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING
APPROX 9Z. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS
FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. EASTERN TAFS MAY HAVE SUB VFR AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THIS LOW AFFECTS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING UP 40 KT AND SEAS UP TO 13 FT FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 40-45KT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS TODAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL
WATERS...AND SCA FOR THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE
OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE TODAY...AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 9 FT NEAR SHORE. STRONG N/NE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM WED...TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WIND AND
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 4 AM WED...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AS A
STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG WINDS
AND A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL
MOON. WITH N/NE TODAY... SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT
TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE
PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO
NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS DECREASE BELOW
GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.
THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE
FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG/CTC
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BM/SK







000
FXUS62 KRAH 160818
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
418 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED FOR HEADLINE SECTION FOR UPGRADE OF FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING...FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM THU...OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HALIFAX AND
NASH COUNTIES.

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S - SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DAT AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1305 METERS AT
GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT
MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE TONIGHT IN MSL
PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING HIGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A STRONGER MSL
PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO
DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL
WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS)
TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE
TRIAD...TO 33-36 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.
A FROST ADVISORY WILL CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 160702 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S - SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DAT AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1305 METERS AT
GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT
MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE TONIGHT IN MSL
PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING HIGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A STRONGER MSL
PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO
DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL
WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS)
TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE
TRIAD...TO 33-36 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.
A FROST ADVISORY WILL CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 160700
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
242 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
- SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DAT AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1305 METERS AT
GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT
MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE TONIGHT IN MSL
PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING HIGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A STRONGER MSL
PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO
DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL
WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS)
TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE
TRIAD...TO 33-36 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.
A FROST ADVISORY WILL CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.  THU AND THU NIGHT:
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH
CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN
AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24
HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30 METERS OF THOSE OF WED.
CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE A FEW LINGERING
STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42 DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 160642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
242 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...JUST AHEAD OF THE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. COASTAL COUNTES WILL SEE
ANOTHER HOUR OR PRECIP WITH RAPID WEST TO EAST CLEARING FOLLOWING
SUIT...REACHING EASTERN CWA BY 06Z-08Z.

9 PM EDT TEMPERATES ARE RANGING FROM LOWER 40 NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND
50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 160602
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
201 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...JUST AHEAD OF THE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. COASTAL COUNTES WILL SEE
ANOTHER HOUR OR PRECIP WITH RAPID WEST TO EAST CLEARING FOLLOWING
SUIT...REACHING EASTERN CWA BY 06Z-08Z.

9 PM EDT TEMPERATES ARE RANGING FROM LOWER 40 NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND
50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 160547
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
147 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130PM PM WED...MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST
OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS
DROPPING VERY QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 50S JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOWS OVERNIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID/UPPER 40S
OUTER BANKS. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND WITH CAA MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL
LIKELY FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTIES SO
WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WED...GUSTY N/NW WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT. DRY AIR
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING
APPROX 9Z. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS
FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WED...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND IT...GUSTING UP 45KT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40-45KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS OVERNIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCA FOR
THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED...WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 8 FT
NEAR SHORE. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN
1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE
AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/BM
MARINE...CTC/CQD/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA/SK







000
FXUS62 KILM 160531
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
131 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S AND NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM REMAINS LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRICKLED IN
WITH LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS COOLER AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY BELOW FREEZING IN LUMBERTON. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING MIXED...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT WE ARE SEEING THIS
MORNING...I STILL LIKE THE WARMER NAM/MET NUMBERS. LONG STORY
SHORT...I AM NOT ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. I DO THINK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN SPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE CAVEATS/THREATS IS
THE GFS NUMBERS DO VERIFY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER TO MAKE ONE FINAL (HOPEFULLY)
RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THE COAST BEHIND TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN APRIL...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF WHICH TO SPEAK DURING MID-WEEK...THE
SHORT TERM IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUB-60 (APPROACHING
RECORD LOW HIGHS). IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 60 THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT TRUE AND
STRONG CAA IN PLACE. WHILE NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...AND
BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA...FULL MID-APRIL SUN AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WHICH ACTUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. IN
FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1290M (SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW!) TO 1320M BY THE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A
VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME AND WEAK MIXING...WILL BUMP HIGHS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY FROM INHERITED. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SUB-60 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...WITH LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER BASIN. GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
WEDGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THROUGH THE AFTN. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS IS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-APRIL.

THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...AND WILL APPROACH
RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE. MOS BULLETINS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING TO
FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID 30S
AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD APPROACH OR SET RECORDS:

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING 4/17:
WILMINGTON, NC - 34
FLORENCE, SC - 33
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - 32

HOWEVER...EXPECT IT WOULD TAKE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OR STRONG
CAA TO DRIVE TEMPS TO FREEZING...NEITHER OF WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN
MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATOCU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT COOLING. NONETHELESS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 30S
LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PREVENT THE NECESSITY FOR ANY FREEZE
PRODUCTS...FROST IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN CHANCES LONG THE
COAST. DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY  NIGHT AS WILL MID LEVEL
NVA DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DAMPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TERMINALS AND SKIES HAVE
BECOME SCT. N WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING NE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR STRATUS CIGS
EACH MORNING. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK OFF FROM THIS MORNINGS
VALUES OF 25-30 KNOTS...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF 15-20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY INTACT. THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 3-8 FEET WILL
DROP TO 4-6 FEET LATE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...CREATING GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS VEER FROM
NORTH TO NE AT 20-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A N/NE WIND
WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES OF 5-8 FT WEDNESDAY FALLING TO 4-6 FT
THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL WAVE-SHADOW REGION
SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE NE WINDS GET BLOCKED...AND THUS WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST 1-3 FT LOCALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE PORTIONS OF
AMZ252 AND AMZ254. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY...AND MAY NEED FURTHER EXPANSION INTO
FRIDAY WITH LATER UPDATES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE FOUND IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY IT WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST ZONES LIE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT PINCH FOR SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT
SEAS BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS BOTH FEATURES WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING STATE. SATURDAY BRINGS A RENEWED PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BUT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL NO
LONGER BE A PLAYER. THIS BACKS THE FLOW A BIT TO NORTHERLY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO SUNDAY LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER
BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW/BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KRAH 160518
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1218 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...JUST AHEAD OF THE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. COASTAL COUNTES WILL SEE
ANOTHER HOUR OR PRECIP WITH RAPID WEST TO EAST CLEARING FOLLOWING
SUIT...REACHING EASTERN CWA BY 06Z-08Z.

9 PM EDT TEMPERATES ARE RANGING FROM LOWER 40 NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND
50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 160252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1051 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S AND NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE
LATE THIS EVE AND STRONG COOL AND DRY ADVECTION HAS TAKEN HOLD.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WITH
NW TO N WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 35 MPH. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WERE
EXITING THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH THIS WRITING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS AT ABOUT 5 KFT TO NEAR ZERO
DEGREES CELCIUS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NEAR DAYBREAK WED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO DECREASE
BELOW 10 TO 15 MPH AND IT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THUS...WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT THROUGH WED
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE W AND NW
AND WITH THAT...SKIES WERE CLEARING ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES AND THIS
CLEARING WILL SPREAD TO THE BEACHES OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER TO MAKE ONE FINAL (HOPEFULLY)
RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THE COAST BEHIND TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN APRIL...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF WHICH TO SPEAK DURING MID-WEEK...THE
SHORT TERM IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUB-60 (APPROACHING
RECORD LOW HIGHS). IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 60 THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT TRUE AND
STRONG CAA IN PLACE. WHILE NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...AND
BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA...FULL MID-APRIL SUN AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WHICH ACTUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. IN
FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1290M (SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW!) TO 1320M BY THE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A
VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME AND WEAK MIXING...WILL BUMP HIGHS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY FROM INHERITED. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SUB-60 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...WITH LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER BASIN. GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
WEDGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THROUGH THE AFTN. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS IS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-APRIL.

THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...AND WILL APPROACH
RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE. MOS BULLETINS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING TO
FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID 30S
AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD APPROACH OR SET RECORDS:

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING 4/17:
WILMINGTON, NC - 34
FLORENCE, SC - 33
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - 32

HOWEVER...EXPECT IT WOULD TAKE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OR STRONG
CAA TO DRIVE TEMPS TO FREEZING...NEITHER OF WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN
MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATOCU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT COOLING. NONETHELESS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 30S
LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PREVENT THE NECESSITY FOR ANY FREEZE
PRODUCTS...FROST IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN CHANCES LONG THE
COAST. DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY  NIGHT AS WILL MID LEVEL
NVA DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DAMPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT KFLO AND WILL END AT KLBT BY 01Z. NW-N
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST
FRONTAL MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH KCRE/KMYR 00-01Z AND KILM 01-02Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW-N WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST FRONTAL
MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER FROPA...WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT KCRE/KILM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES AND N-NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS DECREASING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVE. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NW AND N AND WILL SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY MORNING. THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 9 FT AND UP TO 10 FT AS YOU MOVE OUT TO
NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY KNOCK SEAS DOWN
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LONG BAY OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...CREATING GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NE AT
20-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WAVES WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A N/NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
OF 5-8 FT WEDNESDAY FALLING TO 4-6 FT THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN THE TYPICAL WAVE-SHADOW REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE NE
WINDS GET BLOCKED...AND THUS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST 1-3 FT
LOCALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE PORTIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY...AND MAY
NEED FURTHER EXPANSION INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER UPDATES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE FOUND IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY IT WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST ZONES LIE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT PINCH FOR SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT
SEAS BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS BOTH FEATURES WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING STATE. SATURDAY BRINGS A RENEWED PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BUT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL NO
LONGER BE A PLAYER. THIS BACKS THE FLOW A BIT TO NORTHERLY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO SUNDAY LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER
BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW/BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR









000
FXUS62 KMHX 160237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...SLOWLY PUSHING ENE. AT THIS TIME
MAIN THREAT WITH ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 35
TO 45 MPH...AND BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT. SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM SW TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA WITH TEMPS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 50S JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN TO
MID/UPPER 40S OUTER BANKS. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH CAA MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS
WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS BEHIND IT. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH 03Z. DRY
AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING
QUICKLY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS
FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUE...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT...GUSTING TO 45-50KT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40-45KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS OVERNIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCA FOR
THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN
1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE
AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CTC/HSA/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 160237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...SLOWLY PUSHING ENE. AT THIS TIME
MAIN THREAT WITH ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 35
TO 45 MPH...AND BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT. SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM SW TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA WITH TEMPS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 50S JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN TO
MID/UPPER 40S OUTER BANKS. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH CAA MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS
WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS BEHIND IT. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH 03Z. DRY
AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING
QUICKLY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS
FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUE...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT...GUSTING TO 45-50KT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40-45KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS OVERNIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCA FOR
THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN
1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE
AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CTC/HSA/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA/SK







000
FXUS62 KRAH 160121
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...JUST AHEAD OF THE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. COASTAL COUNTES WILL SEE
ANOTHER HOUR OR PRECIP WITH RAPID WEST TO EAST CLEARING FOLLOWING
SUIT...REACHING EASTERN CWA BY 06Z-08Z.

9 PM EDT TEMPERATES ARE RANGING FROM LOWER 40 NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND
50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSI24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.NG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 160003
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
803 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS ENDING. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MARCHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVE AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT
900-930 PM. SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FURTHER
E UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S WITHIN AN HOUR OF PASSAGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
TEMPS AT ABOUT 5 KFT TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES CELCIUS. AT THE
SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NEAR DAYBREAK WED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE
BELOW 10 TO 15 MPH. THUS...WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY FROST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER TO MAKE ONE FINAL (HOPEFULLY)
RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THE COAST BEHIND TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN APRIL...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF WHICH TO SPEAK DURING MID-WEEK...THE
SHORT TERM IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUB-60 (APPROACHING
RECORD LOW HIGHS). IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 60 THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT TRUE AND
STRONG CAA IN PLACE. WHILE NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...AND
BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA...FULL MID-APRIL SUN AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WHICH ACTUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. IN
FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1290M (SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW!) TO 1320M BY THE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A
VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME AND WEAK MIXING...WILL BUMP HIGHS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY FROM INHERITED. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SUB-60 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...WITH LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER BASIN. GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
WEDGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THROUGH THE AFTN. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS IS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-APRIL.

THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...AND WILL APPROACH
RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE. MOS BULLETINS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING TO
FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID 30S
AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD APPROACH OR SET RECORDS:

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING 4/17:
WILMINGTON, NC - 34
FLORENCE, SC - 33
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - 32

HOWEVER...EXPECT IT WOULD TAKE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OR STRONG
CAA TO DRIVE TEMPS TO FREEZING...NEITHER OF WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN
MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATOCU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT COOLING. NONETHELESS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 30S
LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PREVENT THE NECESSITY FOR ANY FREEZE
PRODUCTS...FROST IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN CHANCES LONG THE
COAST. DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY  NIGHT AS WILL MID LEVEL
NVA DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DAMPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT KFLO AND WILL END AT KLBT BY 01Z. NW-N
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST
FRONTAL MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH KCRE/KMYR 00-01Z AND KILM 01-02Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW-N WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST FRONTAL
MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER FROPA...WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT KCRE/KILM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES AND N-NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS DECREASING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL MARK THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS BY 1000 PM.
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FT AND
UP TO 9 AND 10 FT AS YOU MOVE OUT TO NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. NORTH
WINDS WILL QUICKLY KNOCK SEAS DOWN ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF
LONG BAY OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...CREATING GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NE AT
20-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WAVES WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A N/NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
OF 5-8 FT WEDNESDAY FALLING TO 4-6 FT THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN THE TYPICAL WAVE-SHADOW REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE NE
WINDS GET BLOCKED...AND THUS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST 1-3 FT
LOCALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE PORTIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY...AND MAY
NEED FURTHER EXPANSION INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER UPDATES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE FOUND IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY IT WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST ZONES LIE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT PINCH FOR SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT
SEAS BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS BOTH FEATURES WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING STATE. SATURDAY BRINGS A RENEWED PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BUT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL NO
LONGER BE A PLAYER. THIS BACKS THE FLOW A BIT TO NORTHERLY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO SUNDAY LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER
BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW/BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KRAH 152355
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
755 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN
PIEDMONT. AFTER THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE CLEARED THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING... WE`VE SEEN LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY SHOWERS
IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER OVER WRN SC. THESE ARE POISED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE NAM IS FORECASTING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 500-750 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THIS AFTERNOON... WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2
(REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT`S CURRENTLY 250 M2/S2 OVER CENTRAL SC
ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS). SO WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IS NOT HIGH... ANY ISOLATED CELL OR BOWING SEGMENT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AND BASED ON RAP
SOUNDINGS AT FAY SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL VEERING VIA A CURVED
HODOGRAPH... AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION... WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SURGE UP TO 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. ONCE THE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN CLEARS...
FAIRLY RAPID DRYING OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED...
WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AROUND 03Z-05Z IN THE WRN CWA AND 06Z-08Z
IN THE ERN CWA... WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING BRISK OVERNIGHT
(AROUND 15 MPH WITH SPORADIC GUSTS OVER 20 MPH) AND BECOMING
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEAST. TEMPS ARE PLUNGING 15+ DEGREES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSI24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.NG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 152340
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO WANE AS PRECIPITATION THAT APPEARS MORE STRATIFORM
THAN CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THAT A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IS MOVING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. NO LIGHTNING IS
DETECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AT
PRESENT AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT
HAVE DE-EMPHASIZED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND HAVE ALSO DECREASED OVERALL QPF TOTALS. NOW EXPECTING
EVENT TOTALS IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS INLAND. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES OUT QUITE
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT POST- FROPA...ACTUALLY BY A WHOLE ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE...TO AROUND 0.15 OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BIG NEWS AND RESULTING FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
THE DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF COLD ADVECTION AS STRONG NORTH WINDS SWEEP
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
UPPER AND EVEN MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. HAVE STAYED ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR OUR INLAND AREAS. GIVEN THE STRONG ONGOING MIXING
AND RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT SEE HOW WE CAN GET
DOWN TO FREEZING AS SOME MOS NUMBERS WOULD SUGGEST. WINDS WILL
ALSO PRECLUDE RISK OF FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER TO MAKE ONE FINAL (HOPEFULLY)
RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THE COAST BEHIND TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN APRIL...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF WHICH TO SPEAK DURING MID-WEEK...THE
SHORT TERM IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUB-60 (APPROACHING
RECORD LOW HIGHS). IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 60 THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT TRUE AND
STRONG CAA IN PLACE. WHILE NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...AND
BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA...FULL MID-APRIL SUN AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WHICH ACTUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. IN
FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1290M (SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW!) TO 1320M BY THE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A
VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME AND WEAK MIXING...WILL BUMP HIGHS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY FROM INHERITED. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SUB-60 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...WITH LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER BASIN. GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
WEDGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THROUGH THE AFTN. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS IS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-APRIL.

THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...AND WILL APPROACH
RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE. MOS BULLETINS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING TO
FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID 30S
AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD APPROACH OR SET RECORDS:

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING 4/17:
WILMINGTON, NC - 34
FLORENCE, SC - 33
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - 32

HOWEVER...EXPECT IT WOULD TAKE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OR STRONG
CAA TO DRIVE TEMPS TO FREEZING...NEITHER OF WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN
MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATOCU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT COOLING. NONETHELESS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 30S
LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PREVENT THE NECESSITY FOR ANY FREEZE
PRODUCTS...FROST IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN CHANCES LONG THE
COAST. DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY  NIGHT AS WILL MID LEVEL
NVA DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DAMPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT KFLO AND WILL END AT KLBT BY 01Z. NW-N
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST
FRONTAL MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT BY MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH KCRE/KMYR 00-01Z AND KILM 01-02Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW-N WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST FRONTAL
MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER FROPA...WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT KCRE/KILM.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES AND N-NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS DECREASING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES UPON THE
COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL DROP BY A
FOOT OR SO NEAR SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIMITED
FETCH...ALTHOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE WELL OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...CREATING GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NE AT
20-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WAVES WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A N/NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
OF 5-8 FT WEDNESDAY FALLING TO 4-6 FT THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN THE TYPICAL WAVE-SHADOW REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE NE
WINDS GET BLOCKED...AND THUS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST 1-3 FT
LOCALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE PORTIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY...AND MAY
NEED FURTHER EXPANSION INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER UPDATES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE FOUND IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY IT WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST ZONES LIE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT PINCH FOR SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT
SEAS BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS BOTH FEATURES WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING STATE. SATURDAY BRINGS A RENEWED PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BUT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL NO
LONGER BE A PLAYER. THIS BACKS THE FLOW A BIT TO NORTHERLY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO SUNDAY LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER
BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
     056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
     108-110.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW/BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW/MBB/BJR









000
FXUS62 KMHX 152337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
737 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC...NOW THROUGH
RDU. LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME MAIN THREAT WITH
ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH.
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID/UPPER 40S
OUTER BANKS. SW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH CAA MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY FOR
OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTIES SO WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN....WITH PRED MVFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH 03Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN
CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 15-25KT AND SEAS
5-8FT. FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCA FOR
THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN
1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE
AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CTC/HSA/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 152337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
737 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC...NOW THROUGH
RDU. LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME MAIN THREAT WITH
ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH.
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID/UPPER 40S
OUTER BANKS. SW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH CAA MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY FOR
OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTIES SO WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN....WITH PRED MVFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH 03Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN
CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 15-25KT AND SEAS
5-8FT. FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCA FOR
THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN
1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE
AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CTC/HSA/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 152337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
737 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC...NOW THROUGH
RDU. LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME MAIN THREAT WITH
ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH.
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID/UPPER 40S
OUTER BANKS. SW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH CAA MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY FOR
OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTIES SO WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN....WITH PRED MVFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH 03Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN
CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 15-25KT AND SEAS
5-8FT. FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCA FOR
THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN
1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE
AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CTC/HSA/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 152337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
737 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC...NOW THROUGH
RDU. LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME MAIN THREAT WITH
ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH.
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF SLIGHTLY
INCREASED INSTABILITY.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID/UPPER 40S
OUTER BANKS. SW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH CAA MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY FOR
OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTIES SO WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN....WITH PRED MVFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH 03Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN
CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 15-25KT AND SEAS
5-8FT. FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCA FOR
THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN
1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE
AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CTC/HSA/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 151935
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AREA OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER FROM PIEDMONT NC INTO WESTERN SC ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY MID EVENING. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST
BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN
TO MID/UPPER 40S OUTER BANKS. MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
STILL LIKELY FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 335 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCATTERED THUNDER AND BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO NORTH BY MID EVENING WITH
ALL PRECIP ENDING. DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 335 PM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTH ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF
CURRENT HEADLINES LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG
WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS
EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL
ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO
SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX
WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT
TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY
DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS
MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA







000
FXUS62 KMHX 151935
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AREA OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER FROM PIEDMONT NC INTO WESTERN SC ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY MID EVENING. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST
BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN
TO MID/UPPER 40S OUTER BANKS. MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
STILL LIKELY FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 335 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCATTERED THUNDER AND BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO NORTH BY MID EVENING WITH
ALL PRECIP ENDING. DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 335 PM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTH ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF
CURRENT HEADLINES LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG
WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS
EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL
ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO
SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX
WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT
TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY
DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS
MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA







000
FXUS62 KMHX 151935
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AREA OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER FROM PIEDMONT NC INTO WESTERN SC ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY MID EVENING. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST
BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN
TO MID/UPPER 40S OUTER BANKS. MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
STILL LIKELY FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 335 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCATTERED THUNDER AND BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO NORTH BY MID EVENING WITH
ALL PRECIP ENDING. DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 335 PM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTH ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF
CURRENT HEADLINES LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG
WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS
EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL
ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO
SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX
WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT
TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY
DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS
MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA







000
FXUS62 KMHX 151935
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AREA OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER FROM PIEDMONT NC INTO WESTERN SC ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY MID EVENING. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST
BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN
TO MID/UPPER 40S OUTER BANKS. MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
STILL LIKELY FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 335 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCATTERED THUNDER AND BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO NORTH BY MID EVENING WITH
ALL PRECIP ENDING. DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 335 PM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTH ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF
CURRENT HEADLINES LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG
WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS
EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL
ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO
SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX
WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT
TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY
DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS
MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA







000
FXUS62 KRAH 151922
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN
PIEDMONT. AFTER THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE CLEARED THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING... WE`VE SEEN LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY SHOWERS
IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER OVER WRN SC. THESE ARE POISED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE NAM IS FORECASTING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 500-750 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THIS AFTERNOON... WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2
(REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT`S CURRENTLY 250 M2/S2 OVER CENTRAL SC
ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS). SO WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IS NOT HIGH... ANY ISOLATED CELL OR BOWING SEGMENT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AND BASED ON RAP
SOUNDINGS AT FAY SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL VEERING VIA A CURVED
HODOGRAPH... AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION... WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SURGE UP TO 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. ONCE THE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN CLEARS...
FAIRLY RAPID DRYING OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED...
WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AROUND 03Z-05Z IN THE WRN CWA AND 06Z-08Z
IN THE ERN CWA... WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING BRISK OVERNIGHT
(AROUND 15 MPH WITH SPORADIC GUSTS OVER 20 MPH) AND BECOMING
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEAST. TEMPS ARE PLUNGING 15+ DEGREES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR... BUT BRISK GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE PRECEDED THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
RECENT HOURS... BUT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... A SOLID
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM NOW
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THIS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS... AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... AS
WINDS FROM THE SW SHIFT AROUND TO NW AND GUST UP TO 25-35 KTS... SO
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE TAB ON THE FRONTAL POSITION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN 02Z (WEST) AND 06Z (EAST)... CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO VFR WITH P6SM VSBYS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. BRISK
WINDS FROM NW WILL PERSIST THE REST OF TONIGHT... SUSTAINED NEAR 12-
18 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS... THEN WILL SWING AROUND TO BE FROM THE
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AT FAY/RWI AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO BE FROM THE SE AND BRING IN ATLANTIC
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS CHANCE IS GREATER LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US FRI
THROUGH SAT... AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS IS HIGH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 151910
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO WANE AS PRECIPITATION THAT APPEARS MORE STRATIFORM
THAN CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THAT A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IS MOVING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. NO LIGHTNING
IS DETECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AT
PRESENT AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT
HAVE DE-EMPHASIZED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND HAVE ALSO DECREASED OVERALL QPF TOTALS. NOW EXPECTING
EVENT TOTALS IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS INLAND. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES OUT QUITE
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT POST-FROPA...ACTUALLY BY A WHOLE ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE...TO AROUND 0.15 OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BIG NEWS AND RESULTING FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
THE DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF COLD ADVECTION AS STRONG NORTH WINDS SWEEP
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
UPPER AND EVEN MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. HAVE STAYED ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR OUR INLAND AREAS. GIVEN THE STRONG ONGOING MIXING
AND RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT SEE HOW WE CAN GET
DOWN TO FREEZING AS SOME MOS NUMBERS WOULD SUGGEST. WINDS WILL
ALSO PRECLUDE RISK OF FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER TO MAKE ONE FINAL (HOPEFULLY) RETURN
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE
COAST BEHIND TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN APRIL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF WHICH TO SPEAK DURING MID-WEEK...THE
SHORT TERM IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUB-60 (APPROACHING
RECORD LOW HIGHS). IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 60 THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT TRUE AND
STRONG CAA IN PLACE. WHILE NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...AND
BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA...FULL MID-APRIL SUN AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WHICH ACTUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. IN
FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1290M (SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW!) TO 1320M BY THE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A
VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME AND WEAK MIXING...WILL BUMP HIGHS A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY FROM INHERITED. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SUB-60 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...WITH LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER BASIN. GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
WEDGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THROUGH THE AFTN. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS IS STILL
BELOW NORMAL...BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-APRIL.

THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...AND WILL APPROACH
RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE. MOS BULLETINS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING TO
FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID 30S
AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD APPROACH OR SET RECORDS:

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING 4/17:
WILMINGTON, NC - 34
FLORENCE, SC - 33
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - 32

HOWEVER...EXPECT IT WOULD TAKE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OR STRONG
CAA TO DRIVE TEMPS TO FREEZING...NEITHER OF WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN
MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATOCU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT COOLING. NONETHELESS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 30S
LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PREVENT THE NECESSITY FOR ANY FREEZE
PRODUCTS...FROST IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN CHANCES LONG THE
COAST. DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY  NIGHT AS WILL MID LEVEL
NVA DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DAMPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...INLAND AREAS ARE MUCH MORE STABLE THAN THOUGHT...WITH
LITERALLY NO CAPE YET. EVEN THE COAST IS LACKING CAPE. HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE WINDS AND SEVERITY OF THE STORMS. SPC TOOK US OUT OF THE
SLIGHT THIS MORNING..AND THIS DEFINITELY APPEARS TO BE THE RIGHT
MOVE. WE STILL SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BEST CHANCE FROM 20-23Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE A
GUSTY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

THIS EVENING LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POST
FRONTAL IFR STRATUS...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT WITH SCATTERED
SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 04-05Z. WEDNESDAY...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A
STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WIND AS A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES UPON THE
COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL DROP BY A
FOOT OR SO NEAR SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIMITED
FETCH...ALTHOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE WELL OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...CREATING GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NE AT
20-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WAVES WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A N/NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
OF 5-8 FT WEDNESDAY FALLING TO 4-6 FT THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN THE TYPICAL WAVE-SHADOW REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE NE
WINDS GET BLOCKED...AND THUS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST 1-3 FT
LOCALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE PORTIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY...AND MAY
NEED FURTHER EXPANSION INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER UPDATES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE FOUND IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY IT WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST ZONES LIE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT PINCH FOR SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT
SEAS BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS BOTH FEATURES WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING STATE. SATURDAY BRINGS A RENEWED PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BUT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL NO
LONGER BE A PLAYER. THIS BACKS THE FLOW A BIT TO NORTHERLY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO SUNDAY LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER
BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
     056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
     108-110.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...JDW/BJR
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/JDW/MBB/BJR








000
FXUS62 KRAH 151859
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...

HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST)
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S
EAST. -GIH


MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR... BUT BRISK GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE PRECEDED THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
RECENT HOURS... BUT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... A SOLID
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM NOW
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THIS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS... AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... AS
WINDS FROM THE SW SHIFT AROUND TO NW AND GUST UP TO 25-35 KTS... SO
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE TAB ON THE FRONTAL POSITION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN 02Z (WEST) AND 06Z (EAST)... CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO VFR WITH P6SM VSBYS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. BRISK
WINDS FROM NW WILL PERSIST THE REST OF TONIGHT... SUSTAINED NEAR 12-
18 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS... THEN WILL SWING AROUND TO BE FROM THE
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AT FAY/RWI AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO BE FROM THE SE AND BRING IN ATLANTIC
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS CHANCE IS GREATER LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US FRI
THROUGH SAT... AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS IS HIGH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 151848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...

HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST)
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S
EAST. -GIH


MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR... BUT BRISK GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE PRECEDED THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
RECENT HOURS... BUT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... A SOLID
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM NOW
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THIS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS... AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... AS
WINDS FROM THE SW SHIFT AROUND TO NW AND GUST UP TO 25-35 KTS... SO
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE TAB ON THE FRONTAL POSITION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN 02Z (WEST) AND 06Z (EAST)... CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO VFR WITH P6SM VSBYS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. BRISK
WINDS FROM NW WILL PERSIST THE REST OF TONIGHT... SUSTAINED NEAR 12-
18 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS... THEN WILL SWING AROUND TO BE FROM THE
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AT FAY/RWI AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO BE FROM THE SE AND BRING IN ATLANTIC
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS CHANCE IS GREATER LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US FRI
THROUGH SAT... AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS IS HIGH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 151808
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
208 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO WANE AS PRECIPITATION THAT APPEARS MORE STRATIFORM
THAN CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THAT A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IS MOVING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. NO LIGHTNING
IS DETECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AT
PRESENT AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT
HAVE DE-EMPHASIZED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND HAVE ALSO DECREASED OVERALL QPF TOTALS. NOW EXPECTING
EVENT TOTALS IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS INLAND. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES OUT QUITE
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT POST-FROPA...ACTUALLY BY A WHOLE ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE...TO AROUND 0.15 OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BIG NEWS AND RESULTING FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
THE DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF COLD ADVECTION AS STRONG NORTH WINDS SWEEP
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
UPPER AND EVEN MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. HAVE STAYED ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR OUR INLAND AREAS. GIVEN THE STRONG ONGOING MIXING
AND RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT SEE HOW WE CAN GET
DOWN TO FREEZING AS SOME MOS NUMBERS WOULD SUGGEST. WINDS WILL
ALSO PRECLUDE RISK OF FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX CAA WILL BE RUNNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS MAKE IT DOWN CLOSE TO 4C AS
H5 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT BELOW 570 DEM IN A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DOWN CLOSE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD
30 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH READINGS BELOW 30 DEGREES BY
TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY COOL BUT SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE
MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW 40 DEGREES...EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 60 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

HEADING INTO WED NIGHT INTO THURS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO
THE 30S. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WARMER GROUND TEMPS PLUS WINDS
HOLDING UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP FROST OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURS WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REMAINING BELOW A HALF INCH. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY SC COAST WITH ON SHORE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE 60S BY THURS AFTN. BY THURS NIGHT WEDGE PATTERN SETS UP
WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING AROUND TO
THE S-SW SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTH IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED
IN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARMER AND MOISTER SW WINDS ALOFT RISE OVER THE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS MAIN PCP WITH
THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE EAST AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI. OVERALL EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
PCP MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH FRI. THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT OVERALL EXPECT JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY RIDE THROUGH LATE MONDAY PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY BUT CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH TEMPS REACHING BACK UP
TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 MOST DAYS EXCEPT WARMER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...INLAND AREAS ARE MUCH MORE STABLE THAN THOUGHT...WITH
LITERALLY NO CAPE YET. EVEN THE COAST IS LACKING CAPE. HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE WINDS AND SEVERITY OF THE STORMS. SPC TOOK US OUT OF THE
SLIGHT THIS MORNING..AND THIS DEFINITELY APPEARS TO BE THE RIGHT
MOVE. WE STILL SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BEST CHANCE FROM 20-23Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE A
GUSTY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

THIS EVENING LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POST
FRONTAL IFR STRATUS...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT WITH SCATTERED
SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 04-05Z. WEDNESDAY...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A
STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WIND AS A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES UPON THE
COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL DROP BY A
FOOT OR SO NEAR SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIMITED
FETCH...ALTHOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE WELL OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
N-NE WINDS THROUGH WED UP AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS TO START. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO THURS AND LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAIN OFF SHORE
THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY REMAINING NE 15 TO 20 KTS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF WED SHOULD REMAIN
BORDERLINE THROUGH THURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NE TO N STARTING OUT
CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KTS BUT DIMINISHING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH
FRI. SEAS CLOSER TO 6 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP SLOWLY BUT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LOW/TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DROP FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS
DOWN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
     056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
     108-110.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/RAN





000
FXUS62 KMHX 151646
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUE...BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF WILL
SOON EXIT OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS. SPC HAS REDUCED AREA
FROM SLIGHT RISK TO SEE TEXT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND AREA OF
RAIN WILL LESSEN THUNDER CHANCES SO HAVE ADJUSTED IN THE UPCOMING
ZONE PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS
AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO 25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE
OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD
BRING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
INTO AREA BRINGING STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. STRONG SLY WINDS
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TODAY THEN WINDS BECOME NLY
AFTER FROPA WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND
30 KT DURING EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 5-9 FT MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE DEVELOPING
MOST AREAS...LIKELY JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE
RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...HSA/SK/CGG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK






000
FXUS62 KRAH 151420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...

HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST)
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S
EAST. -GIH


MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...APPROACHING KRWI...AND MOVING
OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH THE BREAK IN THE
PRECIP THIS MORNING AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...CONDITIONS HAVE/SHOULD
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE(D) BACK TO VFR/MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VISBYS. IN THE WAKE OF THESE AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 12Z...
EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY DIE OUT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 151413
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1013 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 AM TUESDAY...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE IT
APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS OF A THREAT THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. HAVE REMOVED SEVERE WORDING FROM THE ZONES WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. LIMITED INSTABILITY MOST PLACES WILL BE THE MAJOR
ISSUE AFFECTING SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES TODAY. GREATEST
INSTABILITY AND THUS BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION LOOK TO BE
FROM THE CAPE FEAR COASTAL REGION AND NORTHWARDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A 2 TO 6 PM SWEET SPOT.

DISCUSSION FROM 3:30 AM FOLLOWS:

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM FOR
OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE IN A BRIEF LULL AT
THE MOMENT. THE 300MB JET INCREASES TO WELL OVER 100 KNOTS WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVING PERFECTLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. I HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THEN RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. I HAVE ALSO ADDED
STRONG WIND WORDING TO THE WEATHER TYPE AS THE SLIGHT RISK
CONTINUES.

THE FORECAST EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A DEEP
PLUNGE OF BELOW ZERO 850MB AIR TO OUR WEST BUT THESE TEMPERATURES
MODIFY AND OR MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
IS VERY COLD EVEN SHOWING A 32 VIA THE MET FOR LUMBERTON AND 33 FROM
THE MAV. MIDDLE 30S ARE ADVERTISED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. AS
USUALLY IS THE CASE...THESE APPEAR TOO COLD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED. THE LOWEST I HAVE IS 34 IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND I FEEL THIS MAY BE ON THE COLD SIDE. I DID
DROP LOWS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES TO 38/39.

LASTLY A COUPLE OF NOTES...STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER CONSISTENT
AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH THE OBVIOUS DISCLAIMER OF LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. I DECIDED AGAINST A
WIND ADVISORY AS WE JUST DONT COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND PUBLIC
IMPACT...AT LEAST BY NOW WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX CAA WILL BE RUNNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS MAKE IT DOWN CLOSE TO 4C AS
H5 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT BELOW 570 DEM IN A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DOWN CLOSE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD
30 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH READINGS BELOW 30 DEGREES BY
TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY COOL BUT SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE
MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW 40 DEGREES...EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 60 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

HEADING INTO WED NIGHT INTO THURS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO
THE 30S. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WARMER GROUND TEMPS PLUS WINDS
HOLDING UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP FROST OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURS WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REMAINING BELOW A HALF INCH. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY SC COAST WITH ON SHORE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE 60S BY THURS AFTN. BY THURS NIGHT WEDGE PATTERN SETS UP
WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING AROUND TO
THE S-SW SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTH IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED
IN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARMER AND MOISTER SW WINDS ALOFT RISE OVER THE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS MAIN PCP WITH
THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE EAST AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI. OVERALL EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
PCP MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH FRI. THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT OVERALL EXPECT JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY RIDE THROUGH LATE MONDAY PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY BUT CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH TEMPS REACHING BACK UP
TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 MOST DAYS EXCEPT WARMER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...LOW LEVEL JET...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
SIXTIES...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH SOLAR
INSOLATION WE WILL GET. THE NAM HAS THE CAPE GOING TO NEAR
1800 J/KG. THINK IF WE GET AT LEAST A THOUSAND CAPE WILL WILL SEE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. FIRST VORT WILL AFFECT ILM AND
LBT FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...THEN WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE IN A
LULL...BASED ON THE BRIEF LACK OF MOISTURE ON THE TIME HEIGHT. THE
MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM
18-22Z. GUSTS OVER 35 KTS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG CONVECTION.
THINGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
STRATIFORM CONVECTION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:15 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID-
MORNING UPDATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS BEFORE. DISCUSSION
FROM 3:30 AM FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT LEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING BUT THE FETCH HAS PRODUCED THE
HIGHER SEAS AS ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT 4-6 FEET SHOULD REACH A
MAXIMUM OF 4-8 FEET AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS...THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BUT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A GALE WARNING
HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS THE DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
N-NE WINDS THROUGH WED UP AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS TO START. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO THURS AND LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAIN OFF SHORE
THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY REMAINING NE 15 TO 20 KTS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF WED SHOULD REMAIN
BORDERLINE THROUGH THURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NE TO N STARTING OUT
CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KTS BUT DIMINISHING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH
FRI. SEAS CLOSER TO 6 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP SLOWLY BUT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LOW/TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DROP FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS
DOWN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
     056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
     108-110.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/SHK/RAN





000
FXUS62 KMHX 151408
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUE...BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THIS LIFTS OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THE MODELS SHOW A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND DO NOT PLAN ANY
CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREV DISC...00Z WRF-NMM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP PATTERN
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LINE OF MORE INTENSE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS LIFTING NNE AND COULD SKIRT
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE A
LULL IN PRECIP AROUND MID DAY BEFORE FRONTAL FORCING INCREASES
ACTIVITY AGAIN. LI`S INCREASE TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C AND CAPE
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 40-60 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SHEAR IS MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
TO MID EVENING ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. STRONG SLY FLOW
PERSISTS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. MOVED THE START
TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OBX AND CARTERET CO TO 4 PM AS
MODELS SHOWING SLY WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP SHORT THERMOMETER WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ON-GOING SEVERE THREAT ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY ENDING AFTER FROPA. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO
25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS
WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
MOVE ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO RTES BRINGING STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. STRONG SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TODAY THEN WINDS BECOME NLY AFTER FROPA WITH
STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 KT DURING
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 5-9 FT MOST AREAS. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11 FT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING HERE AND MOVED START
TIME OF THE GALE WARNING TO 18Z HERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE
DEVELOPING MOST AREAS...LIKELY JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND
NEUSE RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...SK/CGG
MARINE...HSA/SK/CGG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 151408
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUE...BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THIS LIFTS OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THE MODELS SHOW A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND DO NOT PLAN ANY
CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREV DISC...00Z WRF-NMM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP PATTERN
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LINE OF MORE INTENSE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS LIFTING NNE AND COULD SKIRT
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE A
LULL IN PRECIP AROUND MID DAY BEFORE FRONTAL FORCING INCREASES
ACTIVITY AGAIN. LI`S INCREASE TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C AND CAPE
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 40-60 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SHEAR IS MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
TO MID EVENING ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. STRONG SLY FLOW
PERSISTS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. MOVED THE START
TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OBX AND CARTERET CO TO 4 PM AS
MODELS SHOWING SLY WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP SHORT THERMOMETER WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ON-GOING SEVERE THREAT ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY ENDING AFTER FROPA. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO
25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS
WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
MOVE ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO RTES BRINGING STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. STRONG SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TODAY THEN WINDS BECOME NLY AFTER FROPA WITH
STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 KT DURING
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 5-9 FT MOST AREAS. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11 FT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING HERE AND MOVED START
TIME OF THE GALE WARNING TO 18Z HERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE
DEVELOPING MOST AREAS...LIKELY JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND
NEUSE RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...SK/CGG
MARINE...HSA/SK/CGG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 151142
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
742 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...00Z WRF-NMM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP PATTERN
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LINE OF MORE INTENSE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS LIFTING NNE AND COULD SKIRT
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE A
LULL IN PRECIP AROUND MID DAY BEFORE FRONTAL FORCING INCREASES
ACTIVITY AGAIN. LI`S INCREASE TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C AND CAPE
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 40-60 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SHEAR IS MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
TO MID EVENING ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. STRONG SLY FLOW
PERSISTS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. MOVED THE START
TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OBX AND CARTERET CO TO 4 PM AS
MODELS SHOWING SLY WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP SHORT THERMOMETER WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ON-GOING SEVERE THREAT ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY ENDING AFTER FROPA. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO
25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS
WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
MOVE ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO RTES BRINGING STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. STRONG SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TODAY THEN WINDS BECOME NLY AFTER FROPA WITH
STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 KT DURING
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT MOST AREAS...BUT UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE
ONSLOW BAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11
FT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
WITH BETTER MIXING HERE AND MOVED START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING
TO 18Z HERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MOST AREAS...LIKELY
JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD
TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT
SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 151142
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
742 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...00Z WRF-NMM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP PATTERN
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LINE OF MORE INTENSE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS LIFTING NNE AND COULD SKIRT
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE A
LULL IN PRECIP AROUND MID DAY BEFORE FRONTAL FORCING INCREASES
ACTIVITY AGAIN. LI`S INCREASE TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C AND CAPE
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 40-60 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SHEAR IS MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
TO MID EVENING ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. STRONG SLY FLOW
PERSISTS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. MOVED THE START
TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OBX AND CARTERET CO TO 4 PM AS
MODELS SHOWING SLY WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP SHORT THERMOMETER WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ON-GOING SEVERE THREAT ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY ENDING AFTER FROPA. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO
25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS
WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
MOVE ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO RTES BRINGING STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. STRONG SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TODAY THEN WINDS BECOME NLY AFTER FROPA WITH
STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 KT DURING
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT MOST AREAS...BUT UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE
ONSLOW BAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11
FT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
WITH BETTER MIXING HERE AND MOVED START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING
TO 18Z HERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MOST AREAS...LIKELY
JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD
TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT
SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 151142
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
742 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...00Z WRF-NMM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP PATTERN
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LINE OF MORE INTENSE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS LIFTING NNE AND COULD SKIRT
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE A
LULL IN PRECIP AROUND MID DAY BEFORE FRONTAL FORCING INCREASES
ACTIVITY AGAIN. LI`S INCREASE TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C AND CAPE
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 40-60 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SHEAR IS MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
TO MID EVENING ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. STRONG SLY FLOW
PERSISTS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. MOVED THE START
TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OBX AND CARTERET CO TO 4 PM AS
MODELS SHOWING SLY WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP SHORT THERMOMETER WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ON-GOING SEVERE THREAT ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY ENDING AFTER FROPA. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO
25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS
WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
MOVE ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO RTES BRINGING STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. STRONG SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TODAY THEN WINDS BECOME NLY AFTER FROPA WITH
STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 KT DURING
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT MOST AREAS...BUT UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE
ONSLOW BAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11
FT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
WITH BETTER MIXING HERE AND MOVED START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING
TO 18Z HERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MOST AREAS...LIKELY
JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD
TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT
SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 151142
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
742 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...00Z WRF-NMM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP PATTERN
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LINE OF MORE INTENSE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS LIFTING NNE AND COULD SKIRT
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE A
LULL IN PRECIP AROUND MID DAY BEFORE FRONTAL FORCING INCREASES
ACTIVITY AGAIN. LI`S INCREASE TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C AND CAPE
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 40-60 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SHEAR IS MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON
TO MID EVENING ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. STRONG SLY FLOW
PERSISTS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. MOVED THE START
TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OBX AND CARTERET CO TO 4 PM AS
MODELS SHOWING SLY WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS
AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60. MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP SHORT THERMOMETER WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ON-GOING SEVERE THREAT ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY ENDING AFTER FROPA. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO
25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS
WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
MOVE ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING. MESO MODELS INDICATE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO RTES BRINGING STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. STRONG SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TODAY THEN WINDS BECOME NLY AFTER FROPA WITH
STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 KT DURING
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT MOST AREAS...BUT UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE
ONSLOW BAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11
FT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
WITH BETTER MIXING HERE AND MOVED START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING
TO 18Z HERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MOST AREAS...LIKELY
JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD
TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT
SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KRAH 151141
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
441 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATED FOR FREEZE WARNING HEADLINE SECTION.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED AT 07Z FROM NW PA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY...TO CENTRAL AL...AND THE TRAILING PARENT POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD
DEVELOPED WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT EARLIER MON...AND THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SC BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...DRIVEN ALONG A STRENGTHENING
LLJ AXIS AND BY A COUPLE OF MCV/S OVER GA...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK/AROUND 250 J/KG UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER 60S TD/S RESULTS IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
BY MIDDAY...LOW AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN LOCALLY DEEPER CONVECTION.

THE MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT - GENERALLY EAST OF US HWY 1 -
WILL EVOLVE DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WARMING AND
MOISTENING BL YIELDS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND OVERLYING LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR
VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
NC BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. 1) LINEAR FRONTAL FORCING...2)
FORECAST DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND 3) FORECAST HODOGRAPHS THAT STRAIGHTEN WITH TIME (AFTER
DISPLAYING A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER THIS MORNING)... SUGGEST
THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE
MESOLOW ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTGOMERY AL HOLDS TOGETHER AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT...AS THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS...AROUND
18Z.

EVEN BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL CONVECTION...THE TRAILING
UPPER FORCING AND RESULT WESTWARD SLOPE OF THE SATURATED AXIS ACROSS
THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS SOME POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN - SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY THIS MORNING - WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA
SUGGESTS FLOODING WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WATCH...THOUGH A COUPLE OF FLS/S...OR FFW/S MAINLY FOR URBAN
AREAS...MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY - STARTING OFF WARM IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE -
WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST UPPER 60S WEST
TO AROUND 80 EAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 3O MPH...BECOMING A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH
SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...APPROACHING KRWI...AND MOVING
OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH THE BREAK IN THE
PRECIP THIS MORNING AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...CONDITIONS HAVE/SHOULD
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE(D) BACK TO VFR/MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VISBYS. IN THE WAKE OF THESE AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 12Z...
EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY DIE OUT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 151049
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. COVERAGE OF
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND YET ANOTHER STREAMER
ALONG THE COAST A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS
THROUGH 1200 UTC. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS:


WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM FOR
OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE IN A BRIEF LULL AT
THE MOMENT. THE 300MB JET INCREASES TO WELL OVER 100 KNOTS WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVING PERFECTLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. I HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THEN RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. I HAVE ALSO ADDED
STRONG WIND WORDING TO THE WEATHER TYPE AS THE SLIGHT RISK
CONTINUES.

THE FORECAST EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A DEEP
PLUNGE OF BELOW ZERO 850MB AIR TO OUR WEST BUT THESE TEMPERATURES
MODIFY AND OR MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
IS VERY COLD EVEN SHOWING A 32 VIA THE MET FOR LUMBERTON AND 33 FROM
THE MAV. MIDDLE 30S ARE ADVERTISED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. AS
USUALLY IS THE CASE...THESE APPEAR TOO COLD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED. THE LOWEST I HAVE IS 34 IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND I FEEL THIS MAY BE ON THE COLD SIDE. I DID
DROP LOWS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES TO 38/39.

LASTLY A COUPLE OF NOTES...STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER CONSISTENT
AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH THE OBVIOUS DISCLAIMER OF LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. I DECIDED AGAINST A
WIND ADVISORY AS WE JUST DONT COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND PUBLIC
IMPACT...AT LEAST BY NOW WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX CAA WILL BE RUNNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS MAKE IT DOWN CLOSE TO 4C AS
H5 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT BELOW 570 DEM IN A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DOWN CLOSE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD
30 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH READINGS BELOW 30 DEGREES BY
TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY COOL BUT SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE
MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW 40 DEGREES...EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 60 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

HEADING INTO WED NIGHT INTO THURS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO
THE 30S. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WARMER GROUND TEMPS PLUS WINDS
HOLDING UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP FROST OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURS WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REMAINING BELOW A HALF INCH. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY SC COAST WITH ON SHORE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE 60S BY THURS AFTN. BY THURS NIGHT WEDGE PATTERN SETS UP
WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING AROUND TO
THE S-SW SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTH IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED
IN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARMER AND MOISTER SW WINDS ALOFT RISE OVER THE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS MAIN PCP WITH
THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE EAST AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI. OVERALL EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
PCP MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH FRI. THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT OVERALL EXPECT JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY RIDE THROUGH LATE MONDAY PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY BUT CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH TEMPS REACHING BACK UP
TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 MOST DAYS EXCEPT WARMER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...LOW LEVEL JET...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
SIXTIES...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH SOLAR
INSOLATION WE WILL GET. THE NAM HAS THE CAPE GOING TO NEAR
1800 J/KG. THINK IF WE GET AT LEAST A THOUSAND CAPE WILL WILL SEE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. FIRST VORT WILL AFFECT ILM AND
LBT FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...THEN WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE IN A
LULL...BASED ON THE BRIEF LACK OF MOISTURE ON THE TIME HEIGHT. THE
MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM
18-22Z. GUSTS OVER 35 KTS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG CONVECTION.
THINGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
STRATIFORM CONVECTION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330
AM FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT LEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING BUT THE FETCH HAS PRODUCED THE
HIGHER SEAS AS ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT 4-6 FEET SHOULD REACH A
MAXIMUM OF 4-8 FEET AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS...THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BUT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A GALE WARNING
HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS THE DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
N-NE WINDS THROUGH WED UP AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS TO START. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO THURS AND LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAIN OFF SHORE
THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY REMAINING NE 15 TO 20 KTS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF WED SHOULD REMAIN
BORDERLINE THROUGH THURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NE TO N STARTING OUT
CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KTS BUT DIMINISHING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH
FRI. SEAS CLOSER TO 6 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP SLOWLY BUT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LOW/TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DROP FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS
DOWN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...43











000
FXUS62 KILM 151035
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. COVERAGE OF
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND YET ANOTHER STREAMER
ALONG THE COAST A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS
THROUGH 1200 UTC. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS:


WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM FOR
OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE IN A BRIEF LULL AT
THE MOMENT. THE 300MB JET INCREASES TO WELL OVER 100 KNOTS WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVING PERFECTLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. I HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THEN RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. I HAVE ALSO ADDED
STRONG WIND WORDING TO THE WEATHER TYPE AS THE SLIGHT RISK
CONTINUES.

THE FORECAST EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A DEEP
PLUNGE OF BELOW ZERO 850MB AIR TO OUR WEST BUT THESE TEMPERATURES
MODIFY AND OR MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
IS VERY COLD EVEN SHOWING A 32 VIA THE MET FOR LUMBERTON AND 33 FROM
THE MAV. MIDDLE 30S ARE ADVERTISED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. AS
USUALLY IS THE CASE...THESE APPEAR TOO COLD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED. THE LOWEST I HAVE IS 34 IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND I FEEL THIS MAY BE ON THE COLD SIDE. I DID
DROP LOWS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES TO 38/39.

LASTLY A COUPLE OF NOTES...STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER CONSISTENT
AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH THE OBVIOUS DISCLAIMER OF LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. I DECIDED AGAINST A
WIND ADVISORY AS WE JUST DONT COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND PUBLIC
IMPACT...AT LEAST BY NOW WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX CAA WILL BE RUNNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS MAKE IT DOWN CLOSE TO 4C AS
H5 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT BELOW 570 DEM IN A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DOWN CLOSE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD
30 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH READINGS BELOW 30 DEGREES BY
TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY COOL BUT SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE
MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW 40 DEGREES...EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 60 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

HEADING INTO WED NIGHT INTO THURS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO
THE 30S. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WARMER GROUND TEMPS PLUS WINDS
HOLDING UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP FROST OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURS WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REMAINING BELOW A HALF INCH. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY SC COAST WITH ON SHORE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE 60S BY THURS AFTN. BY THURS NIGHT WEDGE PATTERN SETS UP
WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING AROUND TO
THE S-SW SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTH IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED
IN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARMER AND MOISTER SW WINDS ALOFT RISE OVER THE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS MAIN PCP WITH
THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE EAST AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI. OVERALL EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
PCP MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH FRI. THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT OVERALL EXPECT JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY RIDE THROUGH LATE MONDAY PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY BUT CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH TEMPS REACHING BACK UP
TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 MOST DAYS EXCEPT WARMER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR WITH INTERMITTENT
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOWERED CIGS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. LOWERED RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
AFTER DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE.

VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE
AREA TAFS AS VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB
10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. AFTER
DAYBREAK...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWERED REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
GIVEN VARYING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND SHOWERS...OVERALL THOUGH ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR AGAIN WITH INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR POSSIBLE.
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME BEING SEVERE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THE
ANTICIPATED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST. PRIMARY
THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AOB 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE INLAND TO VFR...THOUGH EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PERSIST
AT THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING LATE VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330
AM FOLLOWS:

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT LEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING BUT THE FETCH HAS PRODUCED THE
HIGHER SEAS AS ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT 4-6 FEET SHOULD REACH A
MAXIMUM OF 4-8 FEET AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS...THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BUT WINDS WILL ENTER THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A GALE WARNING
HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS THE DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
N-NE WINDS THROUGH WED UP AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS TO START. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO THURS AND LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAIN OFF SHORE
THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY REMAINING NE 15 TO 20 KTS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF WED SHOULD REMAIN
BORDERLINE THROUGH THURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NE TO N STARTING OUT
CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KTS BUT DIMINISHING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH
FRI. SEAS CLOSER TO 6 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP SLOWLY BUT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LOW/TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DROP FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS
DOWN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...SHK/SGL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 150838
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
438 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...STRONG...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD
OF A ROBUST LONG WAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE LIFTING N OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17...WITH MORE
ISOL SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER TO THE WEST...AN
AREA OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO THE
WESTERN NC PIEDMONT. HRRR KEEPS THESE STORMS WEST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MESO MODELS LIFT AN AREA OF DIFF VORT
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND ENHANCE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC. INSTABILITY INCREASES AFTER DAYBREAK
AS WELL BRINGING INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS HAVE LI`S
INCREASING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C AND CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-60 KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SHEAR IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING ASSOC WITH STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING. STRONG SLY FLOW PERSISTS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25-35 MPH. MOVED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE OBX AND CARTERET CO TO 4 PM AS MODELS SHOWING SLY WINDS
INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY
MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP SHORT
THERMOMETER WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ON-GOING SEVERE THREAT ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY ENDING AFTER FROPA. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO
25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS
WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS RTES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY. STRONG SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT TODAY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO
RTES BRINGING STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. WINDS BECOME NLY
AFTER FROPA WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND
30 KT DURING EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT MOST AREAS...BUT UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE
ONSLOW BAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11
FT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
WITH BETTER MIXING HERE AND MOVED START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING
TO 18Z HERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MOST AREAS...LIKELY
JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD
TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT
SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 150838
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
438 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...STRONG...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD
OF A ROBUST LONG WAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE LIFTING N OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17...WITH MORE
ISOL SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER TO THE WEST...AN
AREA OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO THE
WESTERN NC PIEDMONT. HRRR KEEPS THESE STORMS WEST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MESO MODELS LIFT AN AREA OF DIFF VORT
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND ENHANCE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC. INSTABILITY INCREASES AFTER DAYBREAK
AS WELL BRINGING INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS HAVE LI`S
INCREASING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C AND CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-60 KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SHEAR IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING ASSOC WITH STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING. STRONG SLY FLOW PERSISTS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25-35 MPH. MOVED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE OBX AND CARTERET CO TO 4 PM AS MODELS SHOWING SLY WINDS
INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY
MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP SHORT
THERMOMETER WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ON-GOING SEVERE THREAT ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY ENDING AFTER FROPA. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO
25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS
WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS RTES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY. STRONG SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT TODAY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO
RTES BRINGING STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. WINDS BECOME NLY
AFTER FROPA WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND
30 KT DURING EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT MOST AREAS...BUT UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE
ONSLOW BAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11
FT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
WITH BETTER MIXING HERE AND MOVED START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING
TO 18Z HERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MOST AREAS...LIKELY
JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD
TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT
SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK/BTC









000
FXUS62 KRAH 150804
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
404 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATED FOR FREEZE WARNING HEADLINE SECTION.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED AT 07Z FROM NW PA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY...TO CENTRAL AL...AND THE TRAILING PARENT POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD
DEVELOPED WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT EARLIER MON...AND THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SC BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...DRIVEN ALONG A STRENGTHENING
LLJ AXIS AND BY A COUPLE OF MCV/S OVER GA...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK/AROUND 250 J/KG UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER 60S TD/S RESULTS IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
BY MIDDAY...LOW AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN LOCALLY DEEPER CONVECTION.

THE MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT - GENERALLY EAST OF US HWY 1 -
WILL EVOLVE DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WARMING AND
MOISTENING BL YIELDS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND OVERLYING LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR
VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
NC BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. 1) LINEAR FRONTAL FORCING...2)
FORECAST DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND 3) FORECAST HODOGRAPHS THAT STRAIGHTEN WITH TIME (AFTER
DISPLAYING A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER THIS MORNING)... SUGGEST
THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE
MESOLOW ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTGOMERY AL HOLDS TOGETHER AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT...AS THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS...AROUND
18Z.

EVEN BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL CONVECTION...THE TRAILING
UPPER FORCING AND RESULT WESTWARD SLOPE OF THE SATURATED AXIS ACROSS
THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS SOME POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN - SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY THIS MORNING - WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA
SUGGESTS FLOODING WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WATCH...THOUGH A COUPLE OF FLS/S...OR FFW/S MAINLY FOR URBAN
AREAS...MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY - STARTING OFF WARM IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE -
WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST UPPER 60S WEST
TO AROUND 80 EAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 3O MPH...BECOMING A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH
SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 150800
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE PAIR OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO
BE IN A BRIEF LULL AT THE MOMENT. THE 300MB JET INCREASES TO WELL
OVER 100 KNOTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVING PERFECTLY
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. I HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. I
HAVE ALSO ADDED STRONG WIND WORDING TO THE WEATHER TYPE AS THE
SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES.

THE FORECAST EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A DEEP
PLUNGE OF BELOW ZERO 850MB AIR TO OUR WEST BUT THESE TEMPERATURES
MODIFY AND OR MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
IS VERY COLD EVEN SHOWING A 32 VIA THE MET FOR LUMBERTON AND 33 FROM
THE MAV. MIDDLE 30S ARE ADVERTISED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. AS
USUALLY IS THE CASE...THESE APPEAR TOO COLD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED. THE LOWEST I HAVE IS 34 IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND I FEEL THIS MAY BE ON THE COLD SIDE. I DID
DROP LOWS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES TO 38/39.

LASTLY A COUPLE OF NOTES...STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER CONSISTENT
AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH THE OBVIOUS DISCLAIMER OF LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. I DECIDED AGAINST A
WIND ADVISORY AS WE JUST DONT COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND PUBLIC
IMPACT...AT LEAST BY NOW WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LOWER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX CAA WILL BE RUNNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS MAKE IT DOWN CLOSE TO 4C AS
H5 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT BELOW 570 DEM IN A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DOWN CLOSE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD
30 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH READINGS BELOW 30 DEGREES BY
TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY COOL BUT SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE
MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW 40 DEGREES...EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 60 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

HEADING INTO WED NIGHT INTO THURS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO
THE 30S. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WARMER GROUND TEMPS PLUS WINDS
HOLDING UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP FROST OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURS WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REMAINING BELOW A HALF INCH. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY SC COAST WITH ON SHORE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO THE 60S BY THURS AFTN. BY THURS NIGHT WEDGE PATTERN SETS UP
WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING AROUND TO
THE S-SW SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTH IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED
IN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARMER AND MOISTER SW WINDS ALOFT RISE OVER THE
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS MAIN PCP WITH
THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE EAST AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI. OVERALL EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND
PCP MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH FRI. THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT OVERALL EXPECT JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY RIDE THROUGH LATE MONDAY PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY BUT CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH TEMPS REACHING BACK UP
TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 MOST DAYS EXCEPT WARMER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR WITH INTERMITTENT
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOWERED CIGS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. LOWERED RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
AFTER DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE.

VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE
AREA TAFS AS VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB
10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. AFTER
DAYBREAK...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWERED REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
GIVEN VARYING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND SHOWERS...OVERALL THOUGH ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR AGAIN WITH INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR POSSIBLE.
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME BEING SEVERE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THE
ANTICIPATED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST. PRIMARY
THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AOB 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE INLAND TO VFR...THOUGH EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PERSIST
AT THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING LATE VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT LEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING BUT
THE FETCH HAS PRODUCED THE HIGHER SEAS AS ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT
4-6 FEET SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM OF 4-8 FEET AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BUT WINDS
WILL ENTER THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A
GALE WARNING HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS THE DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
N-NE WINDS THROUGH WED UP AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS TO START. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO THURS AND LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAIN OFF SHORE
THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY REMAINING NE 15 TO 20 KTS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF WED SHOULD REMAIN
BORDERLINE THROUGH THURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NE TO N STARTING OUT
CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KTS BUT DIMINISHING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH
FRI. SEAS CLOSER TO 6 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP SLOWLY BUT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LOW/TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DROP FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS
DOWN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SHK/SGL









000
FXUS62 KRAH 150733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
332 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED AT 07Z FROM NW PA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY...TO CENTRAL AL...AND THE TRAILING PARENT POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD
DEVELOPED WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT EARLIER MON...AND THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SC BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...DRIVEN ALONG A STRENGTHENING
LLJ AXIS AND BY A COUPLE OF MCV/S OVER GA...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK/AROUND 250 J/KG UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER 60S TD/S RESULTS IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
BY MIDDAY...LOW AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN LOCALLY DEEPER CONVECTION.

THE MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT - GENERALLY EAST OF US HWY 1 -
WILL EVOLVE DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WARMING AND
MOISTENING BL YIELDS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND OVERLYING LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR
VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
NC BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. 1) LINEAR FRONTAL FORCING...2)
FORECAST DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND 3) FORECAST HODOGRAPHS THAT STRAIGHTEN WITH TIME (AFTER
DISPLAYING A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER THIS MORNING)... SUGGEST
THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE
MESOLOW ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTGOMERY AL HOLDS TOGETHER AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT...AS THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS...AROUND
18Z.

EVEN BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL CONVECTION...THE TRAILING
UPPER FORCING AND RESULT WESTWARD SLOPE OF THE SATURATED AXIS ACROSS
THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS SOME POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN - SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY THIS MORNING - WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA
SUGGESTS FLOODING WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WATCH...THOUGH A COUPLE OF FLS/S...OR FFW/S MAINLY FOR URBAN
AREAS...MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY - STARTING OFF WARM IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE -
WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST UPPER 60S WEST
TO AROUND 80 EAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 3O MPH...BECOMING A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH
SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 150703
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
303 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...

WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.

GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

TUE-TUE NIGHT: WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS
FORECAST A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND
INSTABILITY. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB
JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND
6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1... MUCAPE THAT INCREASES
OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH VALUES
FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-
50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO
BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE
-2C TO -4C...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-
300 M2/S2...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD/DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP/KRD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 150654
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
254 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...

WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.

GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

TUE-TUE NIGHT: WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS
FORECAST A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND
INSTABILITY. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB
JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND
6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1... MUCAPE THAT INCREASES
OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH VALUES
FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-
50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO
BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE
-2C TO -4C...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-
300 M2/S2...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD/DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC/KRD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 150600
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...

WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.

GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC/KRD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 150528
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE PAIR OF
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO
BE IN A BRIEF LULL AT THE MOMENT. THE 300MB JET INCREASES TO WELL
OVER 100 KNOTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVING PERFECTLY
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. I HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. I
HAVE ALSO ADDED STRONG WIND WORDING TO THE WEATHER TYPE AS THE
SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES.

THE FORECAST EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A DEEP
PLUNGE OF BELOW ZERO 850MB AIR TO OUR WEST BUT THESE TEMPERATURES
MODIFY AND OR MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
IS VERY COLD EVEN SHOWING A 32 VIA THE MET FOR LUMBERTON AND 33 FROM
THE MAV. MIDDLE 30S ARE ADVERTISED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. AS
USUALLY IS THE CASE...THESE APPEAR TOO COLD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED. THE LOWEST I HAVE IS 34 IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND I FEEL THIS MAY BE ON THE COLD SIDE. I DID
DROP LOWS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES TO 38/39.

LASTLY A COUPLE OF NOTES...STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER CONSISTENT
AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH THE OBVIOUS DISCLAIMER OF LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. I DECIDED AGAINST A
WIND ADVISORY AS WE JUST DONT COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND PUBLIC
IMPACT...AT LEAST BY NOW WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LOWER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS AT H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 55 KT
RANGE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS END RAPIDLY BY ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40.  GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NW BUT WILL
WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH CAA CONTINUING ON N
TO NE FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.  AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A FREEZE BUT
SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS.  MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAY
PERSIST INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURES WILL BE LOWERING WITH
TIME...AN INDICATION THAT THE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEDGE AND ITS
EASTWARD EXTENSION DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE DEVELOPING AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH
INITIALLY OFFSHORE DOES MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH STRUGGLES TO GAIN PROXIMITY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND IS LIFTING NE AND
FURTHER AWAY. THE CLOSER THE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST...THE GREATER
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL AND THE HIGHER THE RISK FOR RAINFALL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS POINTING TO A WET FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT DOES BRING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SLUG OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR IF NOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL MON NIGHT. THUS...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST IS
VERY MUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BENEFIT FROM MODEL
CONSISTENCY IF NOT A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH LATER RENDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH
A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH MON. HIGHS THU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. WE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO
THAT ON FRI WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MON...
LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY LATE WEEK...AROUND 40 THU
NIGHT...NO FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR WITH INTERMITTENT
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOWERED CIGS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. LOWERED RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AFTER
DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE.

VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE
AREA TAFS AS VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB
10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. AFTER
DAYBREAK...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWERED REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
GIVEN VARYING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND SHOWERS...OVERALL THOUGH ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR AGAIN WITH INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR POSSIBLE.
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME BEING SEVERE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THE
ANTICIPATED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST. PRIMARY
THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AOB 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE INLAND TO VFR...THOUGH EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PERSIST
AT THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING LATE VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT LEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING BUT THE
FETCH HAS PRODUCED THE HIGHER SEAS AS ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT 4-6
FEET SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM OF 4-8 FEET AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS...THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BUT WINDS WILL
ENTER THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A GALE
WARNING HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS THE DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KT TUESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT. N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS TUESDAY...MAY RELAX A
LITTLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT RESIDUAL 6 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. FOR NOW SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THRESHOLDS THU NIGHT OR FRI. SEAS OF 6 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLD. THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY COMPLICATE THE WIND
FORECAST FRI THROUGH SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGHEST THU AND THU NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...SHK/SGL








000
FXUS62 KILM 150232
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1032 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT PCPN PAINTED BY MOSAIC
RADARS...ALONG WITH ITS IMMEDIATE FUTURE MOVEMENT. FOR POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE HRRR
OUTPUT THAT MIMICS PROGGED REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE ILM CWA. IN
ADDITION...FOLLOWED THE LATEST SREF OVERNIGHT PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN. IN ESSENCE...THE BEST SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE UVVS ARE
PROGGED TO OCCUR AND REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE ILM CWA DURING
THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. AND AS A RESULT...HAVE ALIGNED THE HIER
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. FOR
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...YOU WILL FIND
MUCH LOWER CHANCE POPS. THIS PLAN OF ACTION ALIGNS UP NICELY WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING CWAS. LATEST LIGHTNING OBSERVING NETWORK CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LACK OF ANY STRIKES ACROSS THE FA UP TO THIS
POINT IN TIME. ONLY A FEW SELECT UPSTREAM TSTORMS HAVE EXHIBITING
LIGHTNING. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO THUNDER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DID ILLUSTRATE ISOLATED
THUNDER DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HRS...AND CONTINUED THAT INTO
THE DAYLIGHT TUE MORNING HRS. PROGGED OVERNIGHT TSTORM PARAMETERS
RATHER WEAK BUT NEVERTHELESS PRESENT ENUF TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDER. CAE`S LONE SVR ISSUED THIS EVENING CONFIRMS THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER BUT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

LATEST OBSERVED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST READINGS AND TRENDS. WHAT MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMP FORECAST IS THAT ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS ACROSS
THE FA...MAY LOWER TEMPS TO AT OR BELOW THE CURRENT MIN TEMP
FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. OVERALL...TEMPS ACROSS THE FA MAY LOWER A
FEW MORE DEGREES AND THEN BASICALLY REMAIN STEADY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA AS EXPECTED...THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SE WINDS AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES...SINCE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED BY A DECENT INVERSION ABOVE 800MB...AND PERSISTENT VERY DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS INVERSION IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES DECREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...MID-LEVELS WILL MOISTEN TONIGHT...AND THUS
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE...ALBEIT OF SHALLOW NATURE. THUS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED
COVERAGE/ACTIVITY AFTER DARK BEFORE PRECIP RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN POP GRIDS...THE EXCEPTION BEING
OVER THE WATERS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
ADVECT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (POSSIBLY ONSHORE AS WELL)...BUT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE SHOWN A
NON-TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE...WITH MINS BEING REACHED A FEW HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAWN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S...SUPPORTING VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS AT H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 55 KT
RANGE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS END RAPIDLY BY ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40.  GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NW BUT WILL
WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH CAA CONTINUING ON N
TO NE FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.  AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A FREEZE BUT
SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS.  MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAY
PERSIST INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURES WILL BE LOWERING WITH
TIME...AN INDICATION THAT THE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEDGE AND ITS
EASTWARD EXTENSION DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE DEVELOPING AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH
INITIALLY OFFSHORE DOES MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH STRUGGLES TO GAIN PROXIMITY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND IS LIFTING NE AND
FURTHER AWAY. THE CLOSER THE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST...THE GREATER
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL AND THE HIGHER THE RISK FOR RAINFALL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS POINTING TO A WET FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT DOES BRING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SLUG OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR IF NOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL MON NIGHT. THUS...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST IS
VERY MUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BENEFIT FROM MODEL
CONSISTENCY IF NOT A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH LATER RENDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH
A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH MON. HIGHS THU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. WE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO
THAT ON FRI WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MON...
LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY LATE WEEK...AROUND 40 THU
NIGHT...NO FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOWERED CIGS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. LOWERED RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE.

VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA TAF SITES
THIS EVENING AS VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. ON TUESDAY
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWERED REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS GIVEN
VARYING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND SHOWERS...OVERALL THOUGH ANTICIPATE
MVFR/IFR AGAIN WITH INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR POSSIBLE.
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME BEING SEVERE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THE
ANTICIPATED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST. PRIMARY
THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AOB 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING LATE VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS STILL SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER
INDUCED BY THE COOL SHELF WATERS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. LATEST 41013 BUOY JUST OUTSIDE THE COASTAL WATERS...HAS
FINALLY SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS THE SFC PG
TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL STABLE MARINE
LAYER DECREASES IN DEPTH...ALLOWING SOME OF THOSE HIER WINDS JUST
OFF THE DECK TO DROP DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC. THE SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE.

BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
...AND CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. CURRENTLY...THE MAJORITY OF
THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS MAKE-UP COMES FROM A SE-S...7 TO 8 SECOND
PERIOD...PSEUDO SWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS A RESULT OF
THE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE HAVING A DECENT FETCH TO
BUILD UPON. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
CONTRIBUTOR TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS BY DAYBREAK TUE...WITH AVERAGE
PERIODS AT 5 TO 6 SECONDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY
RETREAT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CURRENT 10 KT S/SE WINDS UPWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 15-20 KTS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE SOUTH. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG
DURATION FETCH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
AMPLIFY TONIGHT. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO GROW TO 4-6 FT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO BEGIN
AT 8PM TONIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT.  N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT.  SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 8 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS TUESDAY...MAY RELAX A LITTLE AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.  SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT RESIDUAL 6
FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  FOR NOW SCA
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER IN TIME IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THRESHOLDS THU NIGHT OR FRI. SEAS OF 6 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLD. THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY COMPLICATE THE WIND
FORECAST FRI THROUGH SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGHEST THU AND THU NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 150227
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1027 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...

WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.

GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR...BUT
THIS WILL CHANGE FAIRLY SOON AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
WITHIN A RAPIDLY MOISTENING AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN ANY SHOWER.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE (GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE). REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR TO
LIFR RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP
TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS IS WHEN CIGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING (MAYBE JUST AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST)...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND
CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY...LIKELY
25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND THEN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 150217
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1017 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. DID MODIFY DEWPOINTS A BIT OVERNIGHT AS THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP VALUES A BIT HIGHER. OTHER THAN
THIS...FEEL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS
MODERATE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NC. SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE COAST HAS BEEN SHUNTED FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS SHIFTED SE AWAY FROM
THE AREA DUE TO AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING SW
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO
AREAS OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...ONE ACROSS SE NC MOVING INTO
THE SW CWA AND OTHER ONGOING OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST TO SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS
OR TWO OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. CLOUD COVER AND STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL INHIBIT MUCH COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE COLD FRONT WILL NEAR EASTERN NC TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. CONTINUED
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT
SHOWERS/CONVECTION OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY AROUND LATE MORNING. A
SECOND LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
BY TUES AFTERNOON AND WILL AID IN INCREASING HELICITY ACROSS THE
AREA AS IT NEARS. A STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL
DEVELOP BY TUES MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF
50-60 KT BY MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIFTED INDICES -2
TO -3 C WITH CAPE ROUGHLY 350-500 J/KG...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
ABOVE 1.75 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TUESDAY. IF
ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS OCCUR AFTER MORNING CONVECTION SHIFTS NE
OF THE AREA THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...CONVERSELY
IF CLOUD COVERAGE INHIBITS SIGNIFICANT HEATING THEN SEVERE THREAT
WOULD DIMINISH AHEAD OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE SW CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD.

TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER TUES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE UPPER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST. GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT TUES WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH INLAND TO NEAR
30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND IT`S ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PLUNGE
INTO 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OCCURRING WELL INLAND. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE IN A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS IN
THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
SMALL RISK OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SPREADING THAT LOW THREAT INLAND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE
WETTEST AND WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
AGAIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH MVFR/VFR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MVFR AT THIS TIME. THOUGH
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR WOULD LIKELY BE OAJ AND EWN. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE EARLY MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF LATE MORNING BEFORE
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR COULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE TUE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TUE UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY
AFTER 19Z. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCE DRY AND WINDY TO BREEZY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GUST TO 25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 20KTS AND SEAS 4 TO 6FT. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SW WINDS
BECOMING 15-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT. THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST TUES AND CROSS THE WATERS TUES EVENING
INTO TUES NIGHT. HOISTED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE WATERS BEGINNING
LATE TUES AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS VEER MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 TO
25 KT THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SATURDAY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE
MODEL VARIANCES BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS, SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND,
AND LOWER NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD/DAG
MARINE...JME/CQD/DAG/LEP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC






000
FXUS62 KRAH 150035
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
835 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR AN INCH...AND
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY WITH MSAS SHOWING LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2C AND MLCAPE ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED J/KG...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF IS HANDLING THE LOCATION...COVERAGE...AND INTENSITY
OF THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL...AND THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY THE RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AS
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH...AND THE NAM IN PARTICULAR FORECASTS 850MB LIFT TO
DECREASE...BUT 850MB WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ADD TO
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...AND 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL TO
AROUND 40KT PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE. ALREADY...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...AND
GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE COVERAGE OF
NUMEROUS OR GREATER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE AREA WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...THEN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE GRADUALLY EASTWARD. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND 850MB WINDS AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE BEST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM
MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25KT AT KGSO AND EVEN THE
GFS FORECASTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO JUST BELOW 20KT LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW DECENT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...IT WOULD SEEM...AS ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AROUND AND JUST AFTER 06Z...
THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE AT KGSO WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 40KT...AND THE NAM...WHILE
DRIER...DOES HAVE A SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE WARM...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR...BUT
THIS WILL CHANGE FAIRLY SOON AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
WITHIN A RAPIDLY MOISTENING AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN ANY SHOWER.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE (GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE). REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR TO
LIFR RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP
TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS IS WHEN CIGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING (MAYBE JUST AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST)...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND
CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY...LIKELY
25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND THEN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 150003
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
803 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING POPS WILL TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT PCPN PAINTED BY MOSAIC RADAR ALONG WITH
ITS CURRENT AND FUTURE MOVEMENT. FOR POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE HRRR OUTPUT MIMICKING
PROGGED REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE FA AS WELL AS THE LATEST SREF
OVERNIGHT PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. IN ESSENCE...THE
BEST SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE UVVS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. AND AS A RESULT...HAVE ALIGNED THE
HIER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA. THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA YOU WILL
FIND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS PLAN OF ACTION ALIGNS UP NICELY WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING CWAS. LATEST LIGHTNING OBSERVING NETWORK CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LACK OF ANY STRIKES UP TO THIS POINT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITHOUT INDICATING THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE PRE-
DAWN TUE HRS...AND CONTINUING INTO DAYLIGHT TUE MORNING. PROGGED
OVERNIGHT TSTORM PARAMETERS RATHER WEAK BUT NEVERTHELESS PRESENT
ENUF TO INCLUDE THUNDER. LATEST OBSERVED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOKING
AOK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND SEE NO TWEAKING TO THE OVERNIGHT
MINS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA AS EXPECTED...THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SE WINDS AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES...SINCE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED BY A DECENT INVERSION ABOVE 800MB...AND PERSISTENT VERY DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS INVERSION IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES DECREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...MID-LEVELS WILL MOISTEN TONIGHT...AND THUS
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE...ALBEIT OF SHALLOW NATURE. THUS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED
COVERAGE/ACTIVITY AFTER DARK BEFORE PRECIP RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN POP GRIDS...THE EXCEPTION BEING
OVER THE WATERS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
ADVECT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (POSSIBLY ONSHORE AS WELL)...BUT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE SHOWN A
NON-TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE...WITH MINS BEING REACHED A FEW HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAWN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S...SUPPORTING VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS AT H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 55 KT
RANGE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS END RAPIDLY BY ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40.  GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NW BUT WILL
WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH CAA CONTINUING ON N
TO NE FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.  AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A FREEZE BUT
SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS.  MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAY
PERSIST INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURES WILL BE LOWERING WITH
TIME...AN INDICATION THAT THE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEDGE AND ITS
EASTWARD EXTENSION DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE DEVELOPING AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH
INITIALLY OFFSHORE DOES MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH STRUGGLES TO GAIN PROXIMITY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND IS LIFTING NE AND
FURTHER AWAY. THE CLOSER THE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST...THE GREATER
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL AND THE HIGHER THE RISK FOR RAINFALL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS POINTING TO A WET FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT DOES BRING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SLUG OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR IF NOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL MON NIGHT. THUS...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST IS
VERY MUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BENEFIT FROM MODEL
CONSISTENCY IF NOT A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH LATER RENDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH
A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH MON. HIGHS THU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. WE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO
THAT ON FRI WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MON...
LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY LATE WEEK...AROUND 40 THU
NIGHT...NO FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOWERED CIGS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. LOWERED RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE.

VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA TAF SITES
THIS EVENING AS VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. ON TUESDAY CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWERED REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS GIVEN VARYING CLOUD
HEIGHTS AND SHOWERS...OVERALL THOUGH ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR AGAIN WITH
INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
BEING SEVERE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THE ANTICIPATED LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST. PRIMARY THREAT WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AOB 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING LATE VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS STILL SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER
INDUCED BY THE COOL SHELF WATERS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL STABLE MARINE LAYER DECREASES IN DEPTH ALLOWING SOME OF
THOSE HIER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK TO DROP DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC.
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...AND INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. BUILDING
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND CONTINUE
INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. CURRENTLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
MAKE-UP COMES FROM A SE-S PSEUDO SWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE HAVING A
DECENT FETCH TO BUILD UPON. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY
RETREAT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CURRENT 10 KT S/SE WINDS UPWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 15-20 KTS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE SOUTH. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG
DURATION FETCH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
AMPLIFY TONIGHT. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO GROW TO 4-6 FT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO BEGIN
AT 8PM TONIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT.  N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT.  SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 8 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS TUESDAY...MAY RELAX A LITTLE AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.  SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT RESIDUAL 6
FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  FOR NOW SCA
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER IN TIME IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THRESHOLDS THU NIGHT OR FRI. SEAS OF 6 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLD. THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY COMPLICATE THE WIND
FORECAST FRI THROUGH SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGHEST THU AND THU NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...SGL







000
FXUS62 KILM 142338
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
738 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING POPS WILL TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT PCPN PAINTED BY MOSAIC RADAR ALONG WITH
ITS CURRENT AND FUTURE MOVEMENT. FOR POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE HRRR OUTPUT MIMICKING
PROGGED REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE FA AS WELL AS THE LATEST SREF
OVERNIGHT PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. IN ESSENCE...THE
BEST SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE UVVS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. AND AS A RESULT...HAVE ALIGNED THE
HIER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA. THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA YOU WILL
FIND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS PLAN OF ACTION ALIGNS UP NICELY WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING CWAS. LATEST LIGHTNING OBSERVING NETWORK CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LACK OF ANY STRIKES UP TO THIS POINT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITHOUT INDICATING THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE PRE-
DAWN TUE HRS...AND CONTINUING INTO DAYLIGHT TUE MORNING. PROGGED
OVERNIGHT TSTORM PARAMETERS RATHER WEAK BUT NEVERTHELESS PRESENT
ENUF TO INCLUDE THUNDER. LATEST OBSERVED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOKING
AOK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND SEE NO TWEAKING TO THE OVERNIGHT
MINS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA AS EXPECTED...THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SE WINDS AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES...SINCE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED BY A DECENT INVERSION ABOVE 800MB...AND PERSISTENT VERY DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS INVERSION IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES DECREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...MID-LEVELS WILL MOISTEN TONIGHT...AND THUS
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE...ALBEIT OF SHALLOW NATURE. THUS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED
COVERAGE/ACTIVITY AFTER DARK BEFORE PRECIP RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN POP GRIDS...THE EXCEPTION BEING
OVER THE WATERS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
ADVECT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (POSSIBLY ONSHORE AS WELL)...BUT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE SHOWN A
NON-TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE...WITH MINS BEING REACHED A FEW HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAWN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S...SUPPORTING VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS AT H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 55 KT
RANGE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS END RAPIDLY BY ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40.  GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NW BUT WILL
WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH CAA CONTINUING ON N
TO NE FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.  AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A FREEZE BUT
SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS.  MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAY
PERSIST INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURES WILL BE LOWERING WITH
TIME...AN INDICATION THAT THE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEDGE AND ITS
EASTWARD EXTENSION DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE DEVELOPING AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH
INITIALLY OFFSHORE DOES MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH STRUGGLES TO GAIN PROXIMITY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND IS LIFTING NE AND
FURTHER AWAY. THE CLOSER THE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST...THE GREATER
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL AND THE HIGHER THE RISK FOR RAINFALL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS POINTING TO A WET FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT DOES BRING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SLUG OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR IF NOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL MON NIGHT. THUS...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST IS
VERY MUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BENEFIT FROM MODEL
CONSISTENCY IF NOT A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH LATER RENDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH
A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH MON. HIGHS THU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. WE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO
THAT ON FRI WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MON...
LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY LATE WEEK...AROUND 40 THU
NIGHT...NO FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STABLE LAYER AROUND 6500 FT HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE
A BIT CAPPED...BUT THAT STABLE LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
PRECIP...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS INLAND. WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 7-8
KTS OVERNIGHT...IN FACT THEY WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE IN AND OUT WITH DECENT COVERAGE. MODELS
INDICATE WE WILL GET ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS AFTER MIDDAY...STARTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH 55 KTS AT 2500 FEET.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY SPARE THE COAST FROM STRONG STORMS IF THEY WAIT
TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS STILL SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER
INDUCED BY THE COOL SHELF WATERS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL STABLE MARINE LAYER DECREASES IN DEPTH ALLOWING SOME OF
THOSE HIER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK TO DROP DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC.
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...AND INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. BUILDING
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND CONTINUE
INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. CURRENTLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
MAKE-UP COMES FROM A SE-S PSEUDO SWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE HAVING A
DECENT FETCH TO BUILD UPON. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY
RETREAT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CURRENT 10 KT S/SE WINDS UPWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 15-20 KTS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE SOUTH. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG
DURATION FETCH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
AMPLIFY TONIGHT. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO GROW TO 4-6 FT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO BEGIN
AT 8PM TONIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT.  N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT.  SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 8 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS TUESDAY...MAY RELAX A LITTLE AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.  SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT RESIDUAL 6
FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  FOR NOW SCA
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER IN TIME IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THRESHOLDS THU NIGHT OR FRI. SEAS OF 6 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLD. THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY COMPLICATE THE WIND
FORECAST FRI THROUGH SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGHEST THU AND THU NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 142300
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS MODERATE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NC. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST
HAS BEEN SHUNTED FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS SHIFTED SE AWAY FROM THE AREA DUE TO AN
APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE
LOW RESIDES OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING SW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS
EASTERN NC TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH THIS EVENING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING...ONE ACROSS SE NC MOVING INTO THE SW CWA AND OTHER
ONGOING OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST TO SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. CLOUD COVER AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL INHIBIT MUCH COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE COLD FRONT WILL NEAR EASTERN NC TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. CONTINUED
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT
SHOWERS/CONVECTION OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY AROUND LATE MORNING. A
SECOND LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
BY TUES AFTERNOON AND WILL AID IN INCREASING HELICITY ACROSS THE
AREA AS IT NEARS. A STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL
DEVELOP BY TUES MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF
50-60 KT BY MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIFTED INDICES -2
TO -3 C WITH CAPE ROUGHLY 350-500 J/KG...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
ABOVE 1.75 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TUESDAY. IF
ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS OCCUR AFTER MORNING CONVECTION SHIFTS NE
OF THE AREA THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...CONVERSELY
IF CLOUD COVERAGE INHIBITS SIGNIFICANT HEATING THEN SEVERE THREAT
WOULD DIMINISH AHEAD OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE SW CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD.

TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER TUES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE UPPER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST. GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT TUES WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH INLAND TO NEAR
30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND IT`S ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PLUNGE
INTO 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OCCURRING WELL INLAND. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE IN A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS IN
THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
SMALL RISK OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SPREADING THAT LOW THREAT INLAND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE
WETTEST AND WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
AGAIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH MVFR/VFR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MVFR AT THIS TIME. THOUGH
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR WOULD LIKELY BE OAJ AND EWN. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE EARLY MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF LATE MORNING BEFORE
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR COULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE TUE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TUE UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY
AFTER 19Z. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCE DRY AND WINDY TO BREEZY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GUST TO 25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS...AND 15-20KT NORTH WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
SW PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SW WINDS BECOMING 15-25 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST TUES
AND CROSS THE WATERS TUES EVENING INTO TUES NIGHT. HOISTED GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUES AFTERNOON LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III IN
GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS VEER MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 TO
25 KT THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SATURDAY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE
MODEL VARIANCES BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS, SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND,
AND LOWER NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/CQD
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...DAG/CQD/JME
MARINE...DAG/CQD/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 142300
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS MODERATE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NC. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST
HAS BEEN SHUNTED FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS SHIFTED SE AWAY FROM THE AREA DUE TO AN
APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE
LOW RESIDES OVER QUEBEC STRETCHING SW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS
EASTERN NC TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH THIS EVENING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING...ONE ACROSS SE NC MOVING INTO THE SW CWA AND OTHER
ONGOING OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST TO SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. CLOUD COVER AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL INHIBIT MUCH COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE COLD FRONT WILL NEAR EASTERN NC TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. CONTINUED
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT
SHOWERS/CONVECTION OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY AROUND LATE MORNING. A
SECOND LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
BY TUES AFTERNOON AND WILL AID IN INCREASING HELICITY ACROSS THE
AREA AS IT NEARS. A STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL
DEVELOP BY TUES MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF
50-60 KT BY MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIFTED INDICES -2
TO -3 C WITH CAPE ROUGHLY 350-500 J/KG...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
ABOVE 1.75 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TUESDAY. IF
ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS OCCUR AFTER MORNING CONVECTION SHIFTS NE
OF THE AREA THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...CONVERSELY
IF CLOUD COVERAGE INHIBITS SIGNIFICANT HEATING THEN SEVERE THREAT
WOULD DIMINISH AHEAD OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE SW CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD.

TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER TUES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE UPPER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST. GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT TUES WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH INLAND TO NEAR
30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND IT`S ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PLUNGE
INTO 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OCCURRING WELL INLAND. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE IN A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS IN
THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
SMALL RISK OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SPREADING THAT LOW THREAT INLAND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE
WETTEST AND WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
AGAIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH MVFR/VFR.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MVFR AT THIS TIME. THOUGH
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR WOULD LIKELY BE OAJ AND EWN. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE EARLY MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF LATE MORNING BEFORE
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR COULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE TUE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TUE UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY
AFTER 19Z. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCE DRY AND WINDY TO BREEZY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GUST TO 25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS...AND 15-20KT NORTH WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
SW PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SW WINDS BECOMING 15-25 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST TUES
AND CROSS THE WATERS TUES EVENING INTO TUES NIGHT. HOISTED GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUES AFTERNOON LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III IN
GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS VEER MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 TO
25 KT THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SATURDAY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE
MODEL VARIANCES BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS, SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND,
AND LOWER NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/CQD
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...DAG/CQD/JME
MARINE...DAG/CQD/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 142103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
503 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 PM MON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING ACROSS
EASTERN NC. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST HAS BEEN SHUNTED FARTHER
OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS
SHIFTED SE AWAY FROM THE AREA DUE TO AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER QUEBEC
STRETCHING SW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC TONIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH THIS EVENING. WEAK SHOWERS
OFF THE COAST FROM DIAMOND SHOALS SW TO OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST WILL
MOVE NNE ACROSS THE OBX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK VORT MAX ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. CLOUD
COVER AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL INHIBIT MUCH COOLING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE COLD FRONT WILL NEAR EASTERN NC TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. CONTINUED
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT
SHOWERS/CONVECTION OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY AROUND LATE MORNING. A
SECOND LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
BY TUES AFTERNOON AND WILL AID IN INCREASING HELICITY ACROSS THE
AREA AS IT NEARS. A STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL
DEVELOP BY TUES MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF
50-60 KT BY MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIFTED INDICES -2
TO -3 C WITH CAPE ROUGHLY 350-500 J/KG...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
ABOVE 1.75 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TUESDAY. IF
ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS OCCUR AFTER MORNING CONVECTION SHIFTS NE
OF THE AREA THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...CONVERSELY
IF CLOUD COVERAGE INHIBITS SIGNIFICANT HEATING THEN SEVERE THREAT
WOULD DIMINISH AHEAD OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE SW CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD.

TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER TUES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE UPPER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST. GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT TUES WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH INLAND TO NEAR
30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND IT`S ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PLUNGE
INTO 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OCCURRING WELL INLAND. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE IN A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS IN
THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
SMALL RISK OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SPREADING THAT LOW THREAT INLAND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE
WETTEST AND WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
AGAIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR THIS EVENING AS MODERATE SW FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WITH MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IFR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TUES UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCE DRY AND WINDY TO BREEZY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GUST TO 25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. SW PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH SW WINDS BECOMING 15-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST TUES AND CROSS THE WATERS
TUES EVENING INTO TUES NIGHT. HOISTED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE WATERS
BEGINNING LATE TUES AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS VEER MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 TO
25 KT THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SATURDAY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE
MODEL VARIANCES BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS, SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND,
AND LOWER NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 142103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
503 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 PM MON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING ACROSS
EASTERN NC. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST HAS BEEN SHUNTED FARTHER
OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS
SHIFTED SE AWAY FROM THE AREA DUE TO AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER QUEBEC
STRETCHING SW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC TONIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH THIS EVENING. WEAK SHOWERS
OFF THE COAST FROM DIAMOND SHOALS SW TO OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST WILL
MOVE NNE ACROSS THE OBX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK VORT MAX ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. CLOUD
COVER AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL INHIBIT MUCH COOLING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE COLD FRONT WILL NEAR EASTERN NC TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. CONTINUED
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT
SHOWERS/CONVECTION OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY AROUND LATE MORNING. A
SECOND LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
BY TUES AFTERNOON AND WILL AID IN INCREASING HELICITY ACROSS THE
AREA AS IT NEARS. A STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL
DEVELOP BY TUES MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF
50-60 KT BY MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIFTED INDICES -2
TO -3 C WITH CAPE ROUGHLY 350-500 J/KG...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
ABOVE 1.75 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR AND REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TUESDAY. IF
ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS OCCUR AFTER MORNING CONVECTION SHIFTS NE
OF THE AREA THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...CONVERSELY
IF CLOUD COVERAGE INHIBITS SIGNIFICANT HEATING THEN SEVERE THREAT
WOULD DIMINISH AHEAD OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE SW CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD.

TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER TUES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE UPPER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST. GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT TUES WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH INLAND TO NEAR
30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND IT`S ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PLUNGE
INTO 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OCCURRING WELL INLAND. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE IN A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS IN
THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
SMALL RISK OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SPREADING THAT LOW THREAT INLAND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE
WETTEST AND WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
AGAIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR THIS EVENING AS MODERATE SW FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WITH MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IFR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TUES UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCE DRY AND WINDY TO BREEZY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GUST TO 25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. SW PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH SW WINDS BECOMING 15-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT. THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST TUES AND CROSS THE WATERS
TUES EVENING INTO TUES NIGHT. HOISTED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE WATERS
BEGINNING LATE TUES AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS VEER MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 TO
25 KT THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SATURDAY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE
MODEL VARIANCES BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS, SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND,
AND LOWER NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ135-150.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC




000
FXUS62 KILM 141941
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA AS EXPECTED...THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SE WINDS AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES...SINCE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED BY A DECENT INVERSION ABOVE 800MB...AND PERSISTENT VERY DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS INVERSION IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES DECREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...MID-LEVELS WILL MOISTEN TONIGHT...AND THUS
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE...ALBEIT OF SHALLOW NATURE. THUS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED
COVERAGE/ACTIVITY AFTER DARK BEFORE PRECIP RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN POP GRIDS...THE EXCEPTION BEING
OVER THE WATERS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
ADVECT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (POSSIBLY ONSHORE AS WELL)...BUT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE SHOWN A
NON-TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE...WITH MINS BEING REACHED A FEW HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAWN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S...SUPPORTING VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS AT H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 55 KT
RANGE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS END RAPIDLY BY ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40.  GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NW BUT WILL
WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH CAA CONTINUING ON N
TO NE FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.  AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A FREEZE BUT
SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS.  MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAY
PERSIST INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURES WILL BE LOWERING WITH
TIME...AN INDICATION THAT THE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEDGE AND ITS
EASTWARD EXTENSION DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE DEVELOPING AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH
INITIALLY OFFSHORE DOES MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH STRUGGLES TO GAIN PROXIMITY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND IS LIFTING NE AND
FURTHER AWAY. THE CLOSER THE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST...THE GREATER
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL AND THE HIGHER THE RISK FOR RAINFALL.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS POINTING TO A WET FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT DOES BRING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SLUG OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR IF NOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL MON NIGHT. THUS...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST IS
VERY MUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BENEFIT FROM MODEL
CONSISTENCY IF NOT A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH LATER RENDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH
A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH MON. HIGHS THU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. WE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO
THAT ON FRI WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MON...
LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY LATE WEEK...AROUND 40 THU
NIGHT...NO FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STABLE LAYER AROUND 6500 FT HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE A
BIT CAPPED...BUT THAT STABLE LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
PRECIP...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS INLAND. WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 7-8
KTS OVERNIGHT...IN FACT THEY WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE IN AND OUT WITH DECENT COVERAGE. MODELS
INDICATE WE WILL GET ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS AFTER MIDDAY...STARTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH 55 KTS AT 2500 FEET.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY SPARE THE COAST FROM STRONG STORMS IF THEY WAIT
TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY
RETREAT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CURRENT 10 KT S/SE WINDS UPWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 15-20 KTS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE SOUTH. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG
DURATION FETCH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
AMPLIFY TONIGHT. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO GROW TO 4-6 FT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO BEGIN
AT 8PM TONIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT.  N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT.  SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 8 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS TUESDAY...MAY RELAX A LITTLE AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT TUESDAY NIGHT.  SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT RESIDUAL 6
FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  FOR NOW SCA
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER IN TIME IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THRESHOLDS THU NIGHT OR FRI. SEAS OF 6 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLD. THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY COMPLICATE THE WIND
FORECAST FRI THROUGH SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGHEST THU AND THU NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...JDW/BJR
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...43







000
FXUS62 KMHX 141936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WARM
SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM W AND CU/SCU DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
DRY MID LVLS AT KMHX AND KCHS WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSTM ON SEA BREEZE INLAND OF ILM THIS AFTN WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
INTO SRN MHX AREA...SO NO CHANGE TO 20/30 POPS AFT 18Z. TEMPS ON
TRACK FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE IN THE PERIOD. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
GUSTY SLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1" THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE/VORT
MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO BRING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PWATS RAMPING UP TO AROUND 1.5" AND
EXPECT SCT WAA SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH WEAK INSTABILITY CONTINUING AND
0-6KM WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-40 KT OVERNIGHT BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM AFTER
THE VORT MAX PUSHES EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING SO MINIMAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SLY FLOW WILL BRING MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND IT`S ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PLUNGE
INTO 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OCCURRING WELL INLAND. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE IN A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS IN
THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
SMALL RISK OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SPREADING THAT LOW THREAT INLAND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE
WETTEST AND WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
AGAIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM MON...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. LIGHT S/SW FLOW IS PRECLUDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT LOCATIONS THAT DO DECOUPLE
COULD SEE PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE REDUCED VSBYS IN THE TAF. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWATS AROUND 1" BY LATE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 1.5" BY LATE
EVENING. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH
SW FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AND BE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCE DRY AND WINDY TO BREEZY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GUST TO 25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 345 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENTS WILL BRING INCREASING SLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT...BUT EXPECT
15-20 KT MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FT BUT WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND 5-8 FT TONIGHT. SWAN INITIALIZED BETTER THIS MORNING
AND IS SIMILAR TO WAVEWATCH FOR THE MOST PART. WILL RAISE SCA
FOR ALL BUT PAMLICO/NEUSE RIVER ZONES WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS VEER MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 TO
25 KT THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SATURDAY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE
MODEL VARIANCES BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS, SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND,
AND LOWER NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 141936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WARM
SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM W AND CU/SCU DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
DRY MID LVLS AT KMHX AND KCHS WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSTM ON SEA BREEZE INLAND OF ILM THIS AFTN WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
INTO SRN MHX AREA...SO NO CHANGE TO 20/30 POPS AFT 18Z. TEMPS ON
TRACK FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE IN THE PERIOD. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
GUSTY SLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1" THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE/VORT
MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO BRING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PWATS RAMPING UP TO AROUND 1.5" AND
EXPECT SCT WAA SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH WEAK INSTABILITY CONTINUING AND
0-6KM WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-40 KT OVERNIGHT BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM AFTER
THE VORT MAX PUSHES EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING SO MINIMAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SLY FLOW WILL BRING MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND IT`S ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PLUNGE
INTO 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OCCURRING WELL INLAND. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE IN A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS IN
THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
SMALL RISK OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SPREADING THAT LOW THREAT INLAND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE
WETTEST AND WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
AGAIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM MON...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. LIGHT S/SW FLOW IS PRECLUDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT LOCATIONS THAT DO DECOUPLE
COULD SEE PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE REDUCED VSBYS IN THE TAF. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWATS AROUND 1" BY LATE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 1.5" BY LATE
EVENING. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH
SW FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AND BE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCE DRY AND WINDY TO BREEZY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GUST TO 25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 345 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENTS WILL BRING INCREASING SLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT...BUT EXPECT
15-20 KT MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FT BUT WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND 5-8 FT TONIGHT. SWAN INITIALIZED BETTER THIS MORNING
AND IS SIMILAR TO WAVEWATCH FOR THE MOST PART. WILL RAISE SCA
FOR ALL BUT PAMLICO/NEUSE RIVER ZONES WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS VEER MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 TO
25 KT THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SATURDAY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE
MODEL VARIANCES BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS, SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND,
AND LOWER NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 141936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WARM
SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM W AND CU/SCU DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
DRY MID LVLS AT KMHX AND KCHS WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSTM ON SEA BREEZE INLAND OF ILM THIS AFTN WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
INTO SRN MHX AREA...SO NO CHANGE TO 20/30 POPS AFT 18Z. TEMPS ON
TRACK FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE IN THE PERIOD. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
GUSTY SLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1" THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE/VORT
MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO BRING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PWATS RAMPING UP TO AROUND 1.5" AND
EXPECT SCT WAA SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH WEAK INSTABILITY CONTINUING AND
0-6KM WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-40 KT OVERNIGHT BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM AFTER
THE VORT MAX PUSHES EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING SO MINIMAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SLY FLOW WILL BRING MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND IT`S ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PLUNGE
INTO 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OCCURRING WELL INLAND. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE IN A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS IN
THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
SMALL RISK OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SPREADING THAT LOW THREAT INLAND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE
WETTEST AND WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
AGAIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM MON...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. LIGHT S/SW FLOW IS PRECLUDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT LOCATIONS THAT DO DECOUPLE
COULD SEE PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE REDUCED VSBYS IN THE TAF. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWATS AROUND 1" BY LATE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 1.5" BY LATE
EVENING. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH
SW FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AND BE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCE DRY AND WINDY TO BREEZY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GUST TO 25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 345 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENTS WILL BRING INCREASING SLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT...BUT EXPECT
15-20 KT MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FT BUT WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND 5-8 FT TONIGHT. SWAN INITIALIZED BETTER THIS MORNING
AND IS SIMILAR TO WAVEWATCH FOR THE MOST PART. WILL RAISE SCA
FOR ALL BUT PAMLICO/NEUSE RIVER ZONES WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS VEER MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 TO
25 KT THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SATURDAY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE
MODEL VARIANCES BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS, SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND,
AND LOWER NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 141936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WARM
SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM W AND CU/SCU DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
DRY MID LVLS AT KMHX AND KCHS WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSTM ON SEA BREEZE INLAND OF ILM THIS AFTN WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
INTO SRN MHX AREA...SO NO CHANGE TO 20/30 POPS AFT 18Z. TEMPS ON
TRACK FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER
VALLEYS LATE IN THE PERIOD. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
GUSTY SLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1" THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE/VORT
MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY TO BRING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PWATS RAMPING UP TO AROUND 1.5" AND
EXPECT SCT WAA SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH WEAK INSTABILITY CONTINUING AND
0-6KM WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-40 KT OVERNIGHT BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM AFTER
THE VORT MAX PUSHES EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING SO MINIMAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SLY FLOW WILL BRING MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A FULL LATITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND IT`S ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC TUESDAY NIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PLUNGE
INTO 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OCCURRING WELL INLAND. WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE IN A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS IN
THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST SITUATION DUE TO LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A
SMALL RISK OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THEN SPREADING THAT LOW THREAT INLAND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE
WETTEST AND WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
AGAIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DUE THE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM MON...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. LIGHT S/SW FLOW IS PRECLUDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT LOCATIONS THAT DO DECOUPLE
COULD SEE PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE REDUCED VSBYS IN THE TAF. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PWATS AROUND 1" BY LATE AFTERNOON AND UP TO 1.5" BY LATE
EVENING. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH
SW FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AND BE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCE DRY AND WINDY TO BREEZY
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GUST TO 25 KT OUT OF THE NORTH. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 345 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENTS WILL BRING INCREASING SLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT...BUT EXPECT
15-20 KT MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FT BUT WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND 5-8 FT TONIGHT. SWAN INITIALIZED BETTER THIS MORNING
AND IS SIMILAR TO WAVEWATCH FOR THE MOST PART. WILL RAISE SCA
FOR ALL BUT PAMLICO/NEUSE RIVER ZONES WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS VEER MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 TO
25 KT THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SATURDAY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE
MODEL VARIANCES BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS, SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND,
AND LOWER NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC






000
FXUS62 KRAH 141903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR AN INCH...AND
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY WITH MSAS SHOWING LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2C AND MLCAPE ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED J/KG...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF IS HANDLING THE LOCATION...COVERAGE...AND INTENSITY
OF THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL...AND THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY THE RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AS
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH...AND THE NAM IN PARTICULAR FORECASTS 850MB LIFT TO
DECREASE...BUT 850MB WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ADD TO
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...AND 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL TO
AROUND 40KT PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE. ALREADY...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...AND
GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE COVERAGE OF
NUMEROUS OR GREATER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE AREA WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...THEN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE GRADUALLY EASTWARD. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND 850MB WINDS AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE BEST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM
MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25KT AT KGSO AND EVEN THE
GFS FORECASTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO JUST BELOW 20KT LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW DECENT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...IT WOULD SEEM...AS ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AROUND AND JUST AFTER 06Z...
THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE AT KGSO WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 40KT...AND THE NAM...WHILE
DRIER...DOES HAVE A SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE WARM...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A THREAT OF BKN MVFR CIGS NEAR INT/GSO EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD FROM 18Z-20Z TODAY... A PERIOD OF CONTINUED PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (THROUGH
AROUND 02Z OR 03Z)... WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS
SPORADICALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS... AND VFR CIGS. PATCHY SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY AT FAY... BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST ANY MORE THAN
15 MIN AT ANY ONE TIME. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING... AROUND 02Z OR 03Z... WITH CIGS DROPPING
TO MVFR THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME... WITH
CONTINUED STOUT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SSW (FROM 180-210 DEGREES)
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 14-17 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ON-AND-OFF MAINLY MVFR-VSBY-PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM THIS 04Z-
06Z TIME FRAME THROUGH AROUND 11Z-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY
FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... POTENTIALLY
INDUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... BUT A LULL IN SHOWERS IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM THIS 11Z-13Z WINDOW LASTING A FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY RISE
A BIT TO MVFR DURING THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP. HOWEVER... AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... INT/GSO MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (AFTER 16Z).

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERATING IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM 18Z
THROUGH 06Z... AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. STRONG
WINDS FROM THE SSW AND SW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO BE FROM THE NW TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS POST-
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THU EVENING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHALLOW LOW STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...
THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF THICKER LOW STRATUS FRI NIGHT THROUGH NOON
SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 141757
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM MONDAY...

THE 12Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION WITH A GOOD CAP
BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB. THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALTHOUGH WITH A
NARROW RIBBON OF INCREASING VALUES...JUST BELOW AN INCH...EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST WAS PROVIDING A
MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

TO OUR WEST...THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE
OFFSET UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
DECREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING IN
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AND HAVE INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS AS
MOIST AND WARM AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POPPING UP TO OUR WEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
EVENTUALLY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD.

THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME DIFFLUENCE TO OUR WEST AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
RAP SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SLIGHT 700MB COOLING ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS...ALTHOUGH THE RAP ALSO FORECASTS A MODEST
INCREASE IN THOSE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
AROUND 400J/KG AND MLCAPE IN THHIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED ABOUT A
DEGREE IN THE TRIAD DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND RAISED ABOUT A
DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 DUE TO THINNER CLOUDS FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME THERE. E LOWEST KM AROUND 200J/KG...AND SOME LIFT
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES...AS THE CAP ERODES ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
LATER...THIS COULD FOR A TIME INHIBIT MORE DEEP CONVECTION...AND
THIS SCENARIO IS NOTED BY MORE THAN ONE WRF MODEL AS WELL AS IMPLIED
BY RAP QPF.

MOISTENING OF THE UPPER LEVELS WILL INCREASE CLOUD DEPTH AND ALLOW
FOR LIFTING OVER A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST LIFTING WILL STAY TO THE WEST WITH THE COLD
FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT DUE TO ONGOING
MOISTENING...STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALLS...AND PERIODIC DPVA IN SW
FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN THE DEEP SOUTH IN THIS PERIOD...ONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS ANOTHER LATE TONIGHT...AND HOW THESE FEATURES
EVOLVE/INTERACT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL MOST CERTAINLY
AFFECT PRECIP CHANCES DOWNSTREAM IN CENTRAL NC...LENDING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECISE COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE...ROUGHLY
A DEGREE...FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHS WERE RAISED ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE
95 WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE PERIODS OF THINNER CLOUDS AND MORE
SUNLIGHT HITTING THE GROUND. A VERY MOIST AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR IN THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN
THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

THOUGH QUITE CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN...IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE
LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: EXPECT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NEAR 100% ON TUESDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS VIA PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...FROPA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE NW
PIEDMONT AND BY 00-03Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION THEREAFTER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
RISE IN TEMPS PRIOR TO FROPA...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S POTENTIALLY IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE FROPA WILL BE LATER. STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE) CERTAINLY INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE PRECISE NATURE OF
THE THREAT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
UPSTREAM CONVECTION /MCS ACTIVITY/ LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT(S)...
THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY BACKED SFC WINDS
/LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS/ POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF ANY SFC WAVES WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE
DIURNAL TIMING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A STARK CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES IN
COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1.
A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING. SINCE LOWS WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND UPON COLD ADVECTION...
SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PRECLUDE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT

AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION BUT WITH STILL A
RESIDUALLY DRY AND STRONGLY CAPPED REGIME OVER OUR REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG - INTO
THE 1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WILL RESULT OVER CENTRAL NC. INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES WED WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TO PERHAPS MOSTLY SO IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN...BY THU AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE FLAT
STRATOCUMULUS IS ADVECTED INLAND BENEATH THE CAP.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU AND CLEAR SKIES WOULD SUPPORT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THU
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DEGREE OF CALM GIVEN A
PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH
WED NIGHT. WILL ADJUST LOWS TO REFLECT MOSTLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S...COOLEST WEST...BUT THESE MAY NEED FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
(OR AT LEAST OPEN THE RANGE) TO INCLUDE SOME UPPER 20S (AROUND
RECORD LOWS) IF IT INDEED APPEARS ANY PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE CALM
WILL BE ATTAINED. SIMILARLY COOL IN THE MIDDLE 50S WED...WHICH MAY
THREATEN THE RECORD LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES AT KFAY FOR THE DATE. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SLOW MODERATION TO AROUND 60 AND 40 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...RESPECTIVELY...THU AND THU NIGHT. -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THOUGH MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG
TERM...THE EMERGING SIGNAL FROM THE MAJORITY OF BOTH THE ENSEMBLE
AND  SOLUTIONS OS FOR A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE US...ONE THAT WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT - A STORM TRACK THAT
WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS
DEPICTED BY AT LEAST THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...WHICH HAVE
MINIMAL SUPPORT FROM THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY
OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING/INTERACTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN SOME
DEGREE OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND A WETTER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF NC DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD BE LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
EVENING...SO MENTIONABLE POP WILL BE CONFINED TO THAT TIME UNTIL A
CLEARER PICTURE EMERGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A THREAT OF BKN MVFR CIGS NEAR INT/GSO EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD FROM 18Z-20Z TODAY... A PERIOD OF CONTINUED PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (THROUGH
AROUND 02Z OR 03Z)... WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS
SPORADICALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS... AND VFR CIGS. PATCHY SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY AT FAY... BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST ANY MORE THAN
15 MIN AT ANY ONE TIME. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING... AROUND 02Z OR 03Z... WITH CIGS DROPPING
TO MVFR THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME... WITH
CONTINUED STOUT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SSW (FROM 180-210 DEGREES)
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 14-17 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ON-AND-OFF MAINLY MVFR-VSBY-PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM THIS 04Z-
06Z TIME FRAME THROUGH AROUND 11Z-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY
FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... POTENTIALLY
INDUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... BUT A LULL IN SHOWERS IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM THIS 11Z-13Z WINDOW LASTING A FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY RISE
A BIT TO MVFR DURING THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP. HOWEVER... AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... INT/GSO MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (AFTER 16Z).

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERATING IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM 18Z
THROUGH 06Z... AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. STRONG
WINDS FROM THE SSW AND SW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO BE FROM THE NW TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS POST-
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THU EVENING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHALLOW LOW STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...
THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF THICKER LOW STRATUS FRI NIGHT THROUGH NOON
SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THU:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF/SR/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS




000
FXUS62 KILM 141724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
DEPICTED IN FCST SOUNDINGS. STILL EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED BY HRRR AND OTHER
HI RES MODELS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS...

AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONLY SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS CLOUD COVER IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A CYCLONE MOVING UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND ALTHOUGH ITS DIRECT IMPACTS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TODAY.

KLTX RADAR THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC ON S/SE WINDS...BUT MOST OF THESE ARE
EVAPORATING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...BEFORE
COMING ONSHORE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS...HRRR/ARW/WRF...SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE BEFORE ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND DUE TO
THIS AGREEMENT HAVE SHOWN POP GRIDS WHICH MATCH THIS IDEA. AT THE
SAME TIME...PRECIP WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. MID-LEVEL DRYNESS WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...BUT
BY TONIGHT FORECAST PROFILES SATURATE AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 70S...HIGHEST INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT A RATHER MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST...MID 60S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S...WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. LLJ UP TO 45 KTS COMBINED
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCLUDING A STRONG JET WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD US IN SLIGHT RISK WITH
MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO IN SOME
LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TUES AFTN. THE CLOUDS MAY COME
INTO PLAY AS A LIMITING FACTOR WORKING AGAINST THE CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH TUES...BUT TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE WELL INTO THE 60S TO START
THE DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST PLACES. TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE WITH PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. BEST LIFT WILL COME AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.

A TOTAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL COME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. PCP
WATER VALUES UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES AHEAD OF FRONT LATE TUES WILL
DROP TO AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY WED MORNING. 850 TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET FROM CLOSE TO 13C DOWN NEAR 4C BY WED MORNING. THIS
STRONG CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 20 DEGREES F FROM TUES TO
WED. TEMPS BY WED MORNING WILL BE DOWN IN THE 30S OVER SOME PLACES
INLAND. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DOWN TO MID 20S BY TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF APRIL SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE TEMPS
CLOSE TO 60. A PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP N-NE FLOW
REINFORCING THE COOL AIR THROUGH THURS NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP
ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 30S MANY PLACES INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AS WEDGE LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS THURS INTO FRI WITH TROUGH OFF
SHORE. THE GREATER ON SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURS AND FURTHER INTO
FRIDAY. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
THURS BUT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND RISES UP FROM THE GULF
COAST THROUGH FRI...THE SHALLOW COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BE OVERRUN
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF PCP. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW...BASICALLY BELOW 5K FT. AT THE SAME TIME A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVES EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM MAY KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OFF
SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. KEPT POPS UP ON FRI ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH FROM GULF LOW BEFORE
MOVING OFF SHORE. MAY END UP BEING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
THURS INTO FRI THAN PCP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN CAA
INITIALLY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP BY SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REACH BACK UP
TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STABLE LAYER AROUND 6500 FT HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE A
BIT CAPPED...BUT THAT STABLE LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
PRECIP...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS INLAND. WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 7-8
KTS OVERNIGHT...IN FACT THEY WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE IN AND OUT WITH DECENT COVERAGE. MODELS
INDICATE WE WILL GET ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS AFTER MIDDAY...STARTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH 55 KTS AT 2500 FEET.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY SPARE THE COAST FROM STRONG STORMS IF THEY WAIT
TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IS SLOWLY LOSING
ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. THIS IS DRIVING S/SE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AT
THE LOCAL BUOYS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS TONIGHT. LOCAL SWAN GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 1 FT TOO
HIGH WITH CURRENT SEAS...SO HAVE BLENDED DOWN WITH WNAWAVE TO MORE
ACCURATELY REPRESENT ONGOING CONDITIONS...AND SHOW A SLOWER RISE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT
TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...BEGINNING
AT 2 AM TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. MAY REACH GALE CRITERIA TUES NIGHT IN COLD SURGE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUES FROM 5 TO 7 FT UP
TO 6 TO 8 FT TUES EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 30 KTS WILL KEEP SEAS UP
POSSIBLY TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT TUES INTO EARLY WED.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH WED AS NORTHERLY WINDS VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
SHORE ALONG LINGERING COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE OF COLD
AIR AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAINTAIN N-NE WINDS CLOSER TO
20 KTS INITIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AND VEER SLIGHTLY LATE THURS REMAINING CLOSER TO 15 KTS
THROUGH FRI. SEAS SHOULD DROP DOWN BUT REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...JDW/BJR
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43




















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