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000
FXUS62 KMHX 300142
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
942 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRES WELL TO THE S WITH TROF EXTENDING NE OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST. RDR SHOWS SOME SHRA OVER GULF STREAM BUT THEY QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WHEN MOVE TO THE W AND MDLS SHOW THAT TREND CONT
OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MCLR TO PC
SKIES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AS DEWPTS CREEP UP.
LOWS MAINLY LOWER 7OS INLAND TO MID/UPR 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE
WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SFC
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY SURPRISING
DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. WITH THE
FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH
FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING OTHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...STALLING JUST
ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS
FROM THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FAVORING THE ECMWF SCENARIO. CHANCE POPS FRI THROUGH MON
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FRI. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR SHLD DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME...HOWEVER
TRICKY FCST FOR FOG/ST LATE TONIGHT AS PERSISTENCE WOULD FAVOR
VERY LITTLE WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOW QUITE A BIT. APPEARS WILL
HAVE VERY FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD
FAVOR TEMPS REACHING DEWPTS. MDLS SHOW MINIMAL CONDENSATION PRESS
DEFICITS IN LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR FOG/ST TO DEVELOP
ESPCLY SRN TIER. BASED ON THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD TRENDS IN PREV
FCST WITH S/SW TIER (OAJ/ISO) HAVING BEST SHOT FOR IFR OR WORSE
LATE. WHAT FOG/ST DOES FORM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE
THU WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE MORN AND
AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWER/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED WINDS A BIT OVER CNTRL AND SRN
WTRS NEXT SVRL HRS PER BUOY REPORTS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT AND DIAMOND
SHOALS. BASED ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALSO INCREASED CVRG OF 4
FT SEAS OUTER WTRS FROM OBX S OVERNIGHT. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW WELL
TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS
AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY BUILDING TO 4 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRI THEN STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...THEN FLOW
RETURNING S/SW FRI NIGHT AND SAT AOB 15KT. SW CONTINUES SUN...WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20KT. WEAK
LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE MON AS WINDS 10-20KT
CONTINUE. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD 2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD/SNC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 300142
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
942 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRES WELL TO THE S WITH TROF EXTENDING NE OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST. RDR SHOWS SOME SHRA OVER GULF STREAM BUT THEY QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WHEN MOVE TO THE W AND MDLS SHOW THAT TREND CONT
OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MCLR TO PC
SKIES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AS DEWPTS CREEP UP.
LOWS MAINLY LOWER 7OS INLAND TO MID/UPR 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE
WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SFC
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY SURPRISING
DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. WITH THE
FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH
FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING OTHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...STALLING JUST
ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS
FROM THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FAVORING THE ECMWF SCENARIO. CHANCE POPS FRI THROUGH MON
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FRI. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR SHLD DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME...HOWEVER
TRICKY FCST FOR FOG/ST LATE TONIGHT AS PERSISTENCE WOULD FAVOR
VERY LITTLE WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOW QUITE A BIT. APPEARS WILL
HAVE VERY FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD
FAVOR TEMPS REACHING DEWPTS. MDLS SHOW MINIMAL CONDENSATION PRESS
DEFICITS IN LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR FOG/ST TO DEVELOP
ESPCLY SRN TIER. BASED ON THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD TRENDS IN PREV
FCST WITH S/SW TIER (OAJ/ISO) HAVING BEST SHOT FOR IFR OR WORSE
LATE. WHAT FOG/ST DOES FORM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE
THU WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE MORN AND
AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWER/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED WINDS A BIT OVER CNTRL AND SRN
WTRS NEXT SVRL HRS PER BUOY REPORTS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT AND DIAMOND
SHOALS. BASED ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALSO INCREASED CVRG OF 4
FT SEAS OUTER WTRS FROM OBX S OVERNIGHT. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW WELL
TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS
AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY BUILDING TO 4 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRI THEN STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...THEN FLOW
RETURNING S/SW FRI NIGHT AND SAT AOB 15KT. SW CONTINUES SUN...WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20KT. WEAK
LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE MON AS WINDS 10-20KT
CONTINUE. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD 2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD/SNC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/LEP



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000
FXUS62 KRAH 292352 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...ESP THE GFS...IS CONTINUING A DRYING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE
DEPTH OF ITS TROUGH WOULD LIKELY BE SUCH THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH INVOF OF THE OLD BOUNDARY WOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE LATEST ECMWF ALSO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE HELD UP JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH AGAIN...IS DRIER FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO ITS 00Z
RUN.  OTHERWISE...TIMING OF FRIDAYS FRONT CONTINUES ITS EARLIER
TREND AS WELL...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE SUGGESTING THAT THE
FRONT...AND THE RISK OF RAIN...WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS FALLING BELOW ONE
INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH SCANT FORCING MECHANISMS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS AND DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY CLIMB SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH DRIER AIRMASS...HEAT INDICES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH HIGHER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVING
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT
STILL NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SLT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST CLIMO
VALUES BY LATE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW-MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 752 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
WANE OWING TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT ALL TERMINALS...SREF PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHEST IN THE EAST NEAR KFAY AND KRWI TERMINALS.

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS FROM NW TO SE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/ OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 292352 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...ESP THE GFS...IS CONTINUING A DRYING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE
DEPTH OF ITS TROUGH WOULD LIKELY BE SUCH THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH INVOF OF THE OLD BOUNDARY WOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE LATEST ECMWF ALSO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE HELD UP JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH AGAIN...IS DRIER FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO ITS 00Z
RUN.  OTHERWISE...TIMING OF FRIDAYS FRONT CONTINUES ITS EARLIER
TREND AS WELL...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE SUGGESTING THAT THE
FRONT...AND THE RISK OF RAIN...WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS FALLING BELOW ONE
INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH SCANT FORCING MECHANISMS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS AND DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY CLIMB SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH DRIER AIRMASS...HEAT INDICES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH HIGHER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVING
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT
STILL NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SLT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST CLIMO
VALUES BY LATE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW-MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 752 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
WANE OWING TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT ALL TERMINALS...SREF PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHEST IN THE EAST NEAR KFAY AND KRWI TERMINALS.

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS FROM NW TO SE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/ OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 292352 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...ESP THE GFS...IS CONTINUING A DRYING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE
DEPTH OF ITS TROUGH WOULD LIKELY BE SUCH THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH INVOF OF THE OLD BOUNDARY WOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE LATEST ECMWF ALSO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE HELD UP JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH AGAIN...IS DRIER FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO ITS 00Z
RUN.  OTHERWISE...TIMING OF FRIDAYS FRONT CONTINUES ITS EARLIER
TREND AS WELL...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE SUGGESTING THAT THE
FRONT...AND THE RISK OF RAIN...WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS FALLING BELOW ONE
INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH SCANT FORCING MECHANISMS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS AND DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY CLIMB SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH DRIER AIRMASS...HEAT INDICES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH HIGHER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVING
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT
STILL NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SLT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST CLIMO
VALUES BY LATE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW-MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 752 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
WANE OWING TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT ALL TERMINALS...SREF PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHEST IN THE EAST NEAR KFAY AND KRWI TERMINALS.

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS FROM NW TO SE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/ OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 292352 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...ESP THE GFS...IS CONTINUING A DRYING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE
DEPTH OF ITS TROUGH WOULD LIKELY BE SUCH THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH INVOF OF THE OLD BOUNDARY WOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE LATEST ECMWF ALSO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE HELD UP JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH AGAIN...IS DRIER FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO ITS 00Z
RUN.  OTHERWISE...TIMING OF FRIDAYS FRONT CONTINUES ITS EARLIER
TREND AS WELL...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE SUGGESTING THAT THE
FRONT...AND THE RISK OF RAIN...WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS FALLING BELOW ONE
INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH SCANT FORCING MECHANISMS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS AND DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY CLIMB SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH DRIER AIRMASS...HEAT INDICES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH HIGHER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVING
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT
STILL NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SLT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST CLIMO
VALUES BY LATE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW-MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 752 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS CONTINUES TO
WANE OWING TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT ALL TERMINALS...SREF PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHEST IN THE EAST NEAR KFAY AND KRWI TERMINALS.

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS FROM NW TO SE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/ OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 292346
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS MEANDERING WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO WARM IN THE MID-LEVELS...BETWEEN
550MB AND 350MB...RESULTING IN NO REAL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS AFTN AND EVENINGS CU FIELD. A FEW MODERATE CU PRODUCED VERY
BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AS EVIDENCED BY THE KLTX 88D
OUTPUT. WITH THE DAYS HEATING OVERWITH...ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER LAND IS DOUBTFUL FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A RATHER DEEP NE WIND THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS FLOW DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP ANY NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC
PCPN PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LAND AREAS INVOLVING CAPE FEAR...AND ALSO CAPE ROMAINE
WHERE ISOLATED SHRA MAY CROSS OVER. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF WITH
THIS POSSIBLE SHRA EFFECTS FROM OFF THE ATL...BUT WILL AGAIN MAKE
A DECISION AT THE NEXT UPDATE WHETHER TO INCLUDE THIS ISOLATED
PCPN. WEIRD RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY ORIENTATION AS IT PUSHED
INLAND LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. DID CAUSE SOME RE-ADJUSTING TO
THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...HIGHEST AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

PREVIOUS.......................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY NNWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND NE SURFACE
FLOW HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE COLUMN QUITE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF ITS
DEPTH. EVEN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WELL INLAND THAT WERE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR/CU HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS
THEY MIXED OUT INTO THE DRY AIR. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO NORTHEASTERLY LINED UP WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY PRIOR TO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS TX/NM RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE MID/UPPER TROF IS IN A LITTLE BETTER SHAPE FRIDAY AND
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS ALSO QUITE HIGH THURSDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK INLAND TROF AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AND BE AVAILABLE DURING FRIDAY. MAV NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS/LOWS WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO.

ALSO REGARDING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...THE TIDE LEVELS MAY GET
CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND
SPRINGMAID PIER WITH HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET AT THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT
TIDE GAUGE AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WKND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES SAT AND SUN AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND WASHES OUT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEING PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SE
COAST...FILTERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING...A CLEAR DISCONNECT. WHILE THIS FRONT
IS TECHNICALLY OF POLAR ORIGIN (VERY NEAT TO SEE THE TERM POLAR
FRONT USED BY WPC IN THE SOUTHEAST IN JULY)...THERE APPEARS TO BE
LITTLE TRUE COOL ADVECTION WITH IT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST
AS OPPOSED TO WELL OFFSHORE. WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND KEEP THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST SAT/SUN...BUT WILL WALK POP DOWN DUE TO DRYING
ALOFT. STILL SCT SHOWERS/AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS WKND WITH TEMPS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ERODES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS EXPANDS
TO THE NE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH 850MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS
CLIMBING EACH DAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE TEMPS RISING TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH CLIMO OR BELOW POP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING NOT MUCH HAPPENING
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WE WILL BE VFR UNTIL AROUND 09Z WHEN SOME FOG CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEND ITSELF TO RIPE CONDITIONS ACROSS
KLBT AND KFLO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTER 15Z WITH MAINLY A LIGHT E TO SE WIND.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
WEST THAT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. MODELS SHOW REGION BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SE WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WATERS
TO YIELD A ENE-E WIND FIELD. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO YIELD
10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THIS DUE TO A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SE
U.S. COASTLINE. A FEW -SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND TRACK TO THE SW...AND FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINING PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES. A FEW COULD COULDDRIFT
ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND/OR CAPE ROMAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS MOST
COMMON FROM SURF CITY TO THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 4 TO 6 SECONDS INDICATIVE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND
DRIVEN WAVES PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS.....................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS. SEAS ARE
AVERAGING 3 FT...THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT CAUSED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THAT MAY CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A BACKING TO NE SHOULD
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHEN OR DRIFT NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU ALONG
WITH A WEAK INLAND TROUGH WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST AND
STALLS. AS A RESULT...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT ENTIRELY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS FRONTAL PLACEMENT...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STALL AND FALL APART JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS
WILL LEAVE A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SW FLOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...GRADUALLY BECOMING SW AROUND
10 KTS BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST...BECOMING 3-4 FT FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ON THE GREATER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MAC



000
FXUS62 KILM 292346
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS MEANDERING WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO WARM IN THE MID-LEVELS...BETWEEN
550MB AND 350MB...RESULTING IN NO REAL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS AFTN AND EVENINGS CU FIELD. A FEW MODERATE CU PRODUCED VERY
BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AS EVIDENCED BY THE KLTX 88D
OUTPUT. WITH THE DAYS HEATING OVERWITH...ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER LAND IS DOUBTFUL FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A RATHER DEEP NE WIND THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS FLOW DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP ANY NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC
PCPN PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LAND AREAS INVOLVING CAPE FEAR...AND ALSO CAPE ROMAINE
WHERE ISOLATED SHRA MAY CROSS OVER. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF WITH
THIS POSSIBLE SHRA EFFECTS FROM OFF THE ATL...BUT WILL AGAIN MAKE
A DECISION AT THE NEXT UPDATE WHETHER TO INCLUDE THIS ISOLATED
PCPN. WEIRD RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY ORIENTATION AS IT PUSHED
INLAND LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. DID CAUSE SOME RE-ADJUSTING TO
THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...HIGHEST AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

PREVIOUS.......................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY NNWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND NE SURFACE
FLOW HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE COLUMN QUITE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF ITS
DEPTH. EVEN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WELL INLAND THAT WERE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR/CU HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS
THEY MIXED OUT INTO THE DRY AIR. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO NORTHEASTERLY LINED UP WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY PRIOR TO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS TX/NM RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE MID/UPPER TROF IS IN A LITTLE BETTER SHAPE FRIDAY AND
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS ALSO QUITE HIGH THURSDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK INLAND TROF AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AND BE AVAILABLE DURING FRIDAY. MAV NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS/LOWS WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO.

ALSO REGARDING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...THE TIDE LEVELS MAY GET
CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND
SPRINGMAID PIER WITH HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET AT THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT
TIDE GAUGE AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WKND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES SAT AND SUN AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND WASHES OUT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEING PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SE
COAST...FILTERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING...A CLEAR DISCONNECT. WHILE THIS FRONT
IS TECHNICALLY OF POLAR ORIGIN (VERY NEAT TO SEE THE TERM POLAR
FRONT USED BY WPC IN THE SOUTHEAST IN JULY)...THERE APPEARS TO BE
LITTLE TRUE COOL ADVECTION WITH IT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST
AS OPPOSED TO WELL OFFSHORE. WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND KEEP THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST SAT/SUN...BUT WILL WALK POP DOWN DUE TO DRYING
ALOFT. STILL SCT SHOWERS/AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS WKND WITH TEMPS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ERODES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS EXPANDS
TO THE NE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH 850MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS
CLIMBING EACH DAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE TEMPS RISING TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH CLIMO OR BELOW POP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING NOT MUCH HAPPENING
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WE WILL BE VFR UNTIL AROUND 09Z WHEN SOME FOG CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEND ITSELF TO RIPE CONDITIONS ACROSS
KLBT AND KFLO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTER 15Z WITH MAINLY A LIGHT E TO SE WIND.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
WEST THAT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. MODELS SHOW REGION BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SE WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WATERS
TO YIELD A ENE-E WIND FIELD. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO YIELD
10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THIS DUE TO A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SE
U.S. COASTLINE. A FEW -SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND TRACK TO THE SW...AND FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINING PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES. A FEW COULD COULDDRIFT
ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND/OR CAPE ROMAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS MOST
COMMON FROM SURF CITY TO THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 4 TO 6 SECONDS INDICATIVE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND
DRIVEN WAVES PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS.....................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS. SEAS ARE
AVERAGING 3 FT...THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT CAUSED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THAT MAY CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A BACKING TO NE SHOULD
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHEN OR DRIFT NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU ALONG
WITH A WEAK INLAND TROUGH WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST AND
STALLS. AS A RESULT...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT ENTIRELY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS FRONTAL PLACEMENT...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STALL AND FALL APART JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS
WILL LEAVE A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SW FLOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...GRADUALLY BECOMING SW AROUND
10 KTS BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST...BECOMING 3-4 FT FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ON THE GREATER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MAC



000
FXUS62 KILM 292346
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS MEANDERING WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO WARM IN THE MID-LEVELS...BETWEEN
550MB AND 350MB...RESULTING IN NO REAL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS AFTN AND EVENINGS CU FIELD. A FEW MODERATE CU PRODUCED VERY
BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AS EVIDENCED BY THE KLTX 88D
OUTPUT. WITH THE DAYS HEATING OVERWITH...ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER LAND IS DOUBTFUL FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A RATHER DEEP NE WIND THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS FLOW DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP ANY NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC
PCPN PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LAND AREAS INVOLVING CAPE FEAR...AND ALSO CAPE ROMAINE
WHERE ISOLATED SHRA MAY CROSS OVER. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF WITH
THIS POSSIBLE SHRA EFFECTS FROM OFF THE ATL...BUT WILL AGAIN MAKE
A DECISION AT THE NEXT UPDATE WHETHER TO INCLUDE THIS ISOLATED
PCPN. WEIRD RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY ORIENTATION AS IT PUSHED
INLAND LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. DID CAUSE SOME RE-ADJUSTING TO
THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...HIGHEST AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

PREVIOUS.......................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY NNWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND NE SURFACE
FLOW HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE COLUMN QUITE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF ITS
DEPTH. EVEN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WELL INLAND THAT WERE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR/CU HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS
THEY MIXED OUT INTO THE DRY AIR. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO NORTHEASTERLY LINED UP WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY PRIOR TO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS TX/NM RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE MID/UPPER TROF IS IN A LITTLE BETTER SHAPE FRIDAY AND
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS ALSO QUITE HIGH THURSDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK INLAND TROF AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AND BE AVAILABLE DURING FRIDAY. MAV NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS/LOWS WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO.

ALSO REGARDING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...THE TIDE LEVELS MAY GET
CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND
SPRINGMAID PIER WITH HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET AT THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT
TIDE GAUGE AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WKND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES SAT AND SUN AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND WASHES OUT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEING PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SE
COAST...FILTERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING...A CLEAR DISCONNECT. WHILE THIS FRONT
IS TECHNICALLY OF POLAR ORIGIN (VERY NEAT TO SEE THE TERM POLAR
FRONT USED BY WPC IN THE SOUTHEAST IN JULY)...THERE APPEARS TO BE
LITTLE TRUE COOL ADVECTION WITH IT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST
AS OPPOSED TO WELL OFFSHORE. WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND KEEP THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST SAT/SUN...BUT WILL WALK POP DOWN DUE TO DRYING
ALOFT. STILL SCT SHOWERS/AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS WKND WITH TEMPS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ERODES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS EXPANDS
TO THE NE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH 850MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS
CLIMBING EACH DAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE TEMPS RISING TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH CLIMO OR BELOW POP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING NOT MUCH HAPPENING
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WE WILL BE VFR UNTIL AROUND 09Z WHEN SOME FOG CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEND ITSELF TO RIPE CONDITIONS ACROSS
KLBT AND KFLO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTER 15Z WITH MAINLY A LIGHT E TO SE WIND.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
WEST THAT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. MODELS SHOW REGION BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SE WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WATERS
TO YIELD A ENE-E WIND FIELD. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO YIELD
10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THIS DUE TO A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SE
U.S. COASTLINE. A FEW -SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND TRACK TO THE SW...AND FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINING PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES. A FEW COULD COULDDRIFT
ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND/OR CAPE ROMAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS MOST
COMMON FROM SURF CITY TO THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 4 TO 6 SECONDS INDICATIVE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND
DRIVEN WAVES PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS.....................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS. SEAS ARE
AVERAGING 3 FT...THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT CAUSED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THAT MAY CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A BACKING TO NE SHOULD
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHEN OR DRIFT NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU ALONG
WITH A WEAK INLAND TROUGH WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST AND
STALLS. AS A RESULT...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT ENTIRELY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS FRONTAL PLACEMENT...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STALL AND FALL APART JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS
WILL LEAVE A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SW FLOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...GRADUALLY BECOMING SW AROUND
10 KTS BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST...BECOMING 3-4 FT FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ON THE GREATER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MAC



000
FXUS62 KILM 292346
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
746 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CAROLINAS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS MEANDERING WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO WARM IN THE MID-LEVELS...BETWEEN
550MB AND 350MB...RESULTING IN NO REAL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS AFTN AND EVENINGS CU FIELD. A FEW MODERATE CU PRODUCED VERY
BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AS EVIDENCED BY THE KLTX 88D
OUTPUT. WITH THE DAYS HEATING OVERWITH...ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER LAND IS DOUBTFUL FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A RATHER DEEP NE WIND THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS FLOW DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP ANY NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC
PCPN PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WILL BE LAND AREAS INVOLVING CAPE FEAR...AND ALSO CAPE ROMAINE
WHERE ISOLATED SHRA MAY CROSS OVER. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF WITH
THIS POSSIBLE SHRA EFFECTS FROM OFF THE ATL...BUT WILL AGAIN MAKE
A DECISION AT THE NEXT UPDATE WHETHER TO INCLUDE THIS ISOLATED
PCPN. WEIRD RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY ORIENTATION AS IT PUSHED
INLAND LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. DID CAUSE SOME RE-ADJUSTING TO
THE HOURLY DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...HIGHEST AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

PREVIOUS.......................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY NNWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND NE SURFACE
FLOW HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE COLUMN QUITE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF ITS
DEPTH. EVEN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WELL INLAND THAT WERE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR/CU HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS
THEY MIXED OUT INTO THE DRY AIR. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO NORTHEASTERLY LINED UP WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY PRIOR TO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS TX/NM RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE MID/UPPER TROF IS IN A LITTLE BETTER SHAPE FRIDAY AND
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS ALSO QUITE HIGH THURSDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK INLAND TROF AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AND BE AVAILABLE DURING FRIDAY. MAV NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS/LOWS WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO.

ALSO REGARDING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...THE TIDE LEVELS MAY GET
CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND
SPRINGMAID PIER WITH HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET AT THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT
TIDE GAUGE AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WKND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES SAT AND SUN AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND WASHES OUT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEING PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SE
COAST...FILTERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING...A CLEAR DISCONNECT. WHILE THIS FRONT
IS TECHNICALLY OF POLAR ORIGIN (VERY NEAT TO SEE THE TERM POLAR
FRONT USED BY WPC IN THE SOUTHEAST IN JULY)...THERE APPEARS TO BE
LITTLE TRUE COOL ADVECTION WITH IT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST
AS OPPOSED TO WELL OFFSHORE. WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND KEEP THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST SAT/SUN...BUT WILL WALK POP DOWN DUE TO DRYING
ALOFT. STILL SCT SHOWERS/AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS WKND WITH TEMPS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ERODES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS EXPANDS
TO THE NE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH 850MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS
CLIMBING EACH DAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE TEMPS RISING TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH CLIMO OR BELOW POP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING NOT MUCH HAPPENING
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WE WILL BE VFR UNTIL AROUND 09Z WHEN SOME FOG CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEND ITSELF TO RIPE CONDITIONS ACROSS
KLBT AND KFLO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTER 15Z WITH MAINLY A LIGHT E TO SE WIND.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
WEST THAT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. MODELS SHOW REGION BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SE WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...SFC PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WATERS
TO YIELD A ENE-E WIND FIELD. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO YIELD
10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. THIS DUE TO A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SE
U.S. COASTLINE. A FEW -SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND TRACK TO THE SW...AND FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINING PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES. A FEW COULD COULDDRIFT
ACROSS CAPE FEAR AND/OR CAPE ROMAINE TOWARDS DAYBREAK THU.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT...WITH THE 4 FOOTERS MOST
COMMON FROM SURF CITY TO THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 4 TO 6 SECONDS INDICATIVE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND
DRIVEN WAVES PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS.....................................................
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS. SEAS ARE
AVERAGING 3 FT...THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
WAVE HEIGHT CAUSED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION. ABOUT THE ONLY
THING THAT MAY CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A BACKING TO NE SHOULD
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHEN OR DRIFT NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU ALONG
WITH A WEAK INLAND TROUGH WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST AND
STALLS. AS A RESULT...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT ENTIRELY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS FRONTAL PLACEMENT...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STALL AND FALL APART JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS
WILL LEAVE A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SW FLOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...GRADUALLY BECOMING SW AROUND
10 KTS BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST...BECOMING 3-4 FT FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ON THE GREATER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MAC



000
FXUS62 KMHX 292206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
606 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...PREV FCST ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED. FEW CU INLAND WILL DISSIPATE WITH LIMITED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE
PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING AS DEWPTS CREEP UP. LOWS MAINLY LOWER
7OS INLAND TO MID/UPR 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE
WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SFC
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY SURPRISING
DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. WITH THE
FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH
FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING OTHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...STALLING JUST
ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS
FROM THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FAVORING THE ECMWF SCENARIO. CHANCE POPS FRI THROUGH MON
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FRI. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR SHLD DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME...HOWEVER
TRICKY FCST FOR FOG/ST LATE TONIGHT AS PERSISTENCE WOULD FAVOR
VERY LITTLE WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOW QUITE A BIT. APPEARS WILL
HAVE VERY FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD
FAVOR TEMPS REACHING DEWPTS. MDLS SHOW MINIMAL CONDENSATION PRESS
DEFICITS IN LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR FOG/ST TO DEVELOP
ESPCLY SRN TIER. BASED ON THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD TRENDS IN PREV
FCST WITH S/SW TIER (OAJ/ISO) HAVING BEST SHOT FOR IFR OR WORSE
LATE. WHAT FOG/ST DOES FORM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE
THU WITH VFR REST OF THE DAY WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE MORN AND
AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWER/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND SFC LOW WELL
TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS
AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY BUILDING TO 4 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRI THEN STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...THEN FLOW
RETURNING S/SW FRI NIGHT AND SAT AOB 15KT. SW CONTINUES SUN...WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20KT. WEAK
LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE MON AS WINDS 10-20KT
CONTINUE. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD 2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD /SNC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291922
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY ERODE BEFORE
MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE...A DRY
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES
UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS INLAND MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE
WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SFC
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY SURPRISING
DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. WITH THE
FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH
FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING OTHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...STALLING JUST
ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS
FROM THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FAVORING THE ECMWF SCENARIO. CHANCE POPS FRI THROUGH MON
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FRI. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWER/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND
SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY
BUILDING TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRI THEN STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...THEN FLOW
RETURNING S/SW FRI NIGHT AND SAT AOB 15KT. SW CONTINUES SUN...WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20KT. WEAK
LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE MON AS WINDS 10-20KT
CONTINUE. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD 2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD/SNC
AVIATION...LEP/CQD
MARINE...LEP/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291922
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY ERODE BEFORE
MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE...A DRY
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES
UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS INLAND MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE
WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SFC
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY SURPRISING
DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. WITH THE
FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH
FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING OTHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...STALLING JUST
ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS
FROM THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FAVORING THE ECMWF SCENARIO. CHANCE POPS FRI THROUGH MON
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FRI. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWER/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND
SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY
BUILDING TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRI THEN STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...THEN FLOW
RETURNING S/SW FRI NIGHT AND SAT AOB 15KT. SW CONTINUES SUN...WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20KT. WEAK
LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE MON AS WINDS 10-20KT
CONTINUE. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD 2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD/SNC
AVIATION...LEP/CQD
MARINE...LEP/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291922
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY ERODE BEFORE
MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE...A DRY
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES
UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS INLAND MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE
WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SFC
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY SURPRISING
DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. WITH THE
FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH
FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING OTHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...STALLING JUST
ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS
FROM THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FAVORING THE ECMWF SCENARIO. CHANCE POPS FRI THROUGH MON
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FRI. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWER/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND
SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY
BUILDING TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRI THEN STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...THEN FLOW
RETURNING S/SW FRI NIGHT AND SAT AOB 15KT. SW CONTINUES SUN...WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20KT. WEAK
LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE MON AS WINDS 10-20KT
CONTINUE. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD 2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD/SNC
AVIATION...LEP/CQD
MARINE...LEP/CQD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291922
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY ERODE BEFORE
MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE...A DRY
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES
UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS INLAND MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE
WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND SFC
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY SURPRISING
DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST
WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH SOME
DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. WITH THE
FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENOUGH
FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING OTHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...STALLING JUST
ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS
FROM THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FAVORING THE ECMWF SCENARIO. CHANCE POPS FRI THROUGH MON
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FRI. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWER/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND
SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY
BUILDING TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRI THEN STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI...THEN FLOW
RETURNING S/SW FRI NIGHT AND SAT AOB 15KT. SW CONTINUES SUN...WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20KT. WEAK
LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE MON AS WINDS 10-20KT
CONTINUE. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD 2-4FT...LOCALLY UP TO 5FT ON THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD/SNC
AVIATION...LEP/CQD
MARINE...LEP/CQD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291921 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...ESP THE GFS...IS CONTINUING A DRYING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE
DEPTH OF ITS TROUGH WOULD LIKELY BE SUCH THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH INVOF OF THE OLD BOUNDARY WOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE LATEST ECMWF ALSO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE HELD UP JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH AGAIN...IS DRIER FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO ITS 00Z
RUN.  OTHERWISE...TIMING OF FRIDAYS FRONT CONTINUES ITS EARLIER
TREND AS WELL...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE SUGGESTING THAT THE
FRONT...AND THE RISK OF RAIN...WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS FALLING BELOW ONE
INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH SCANT FORCING MECHANISMS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS AND DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY CLIMB SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH DRIER AIRMASS...HEAT INDICES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH HIGHER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVING
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT
STILL NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SLT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST CLIMO
VALUES BY LATE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW-MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(CHANCES INCREASING WEST-EAST) LATE THU AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST AND INTO THU NIGHT (ESP AT
EASTERN TERMINALS) AS THE FRONT TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291921 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...ESP THE GFS...IS CONTINUING A DRYING TREND FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE
DEPTH OF ITS TROUGH WOULD LIKELY BE SUCH THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH INVOF OF THE OLD BOUNDARY WOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE LATEST ECMWF ALSO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE HELD UP JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WHICH AGAIN...IS DRIER FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO ITS 00Z
RUN.  OTHERWISE...TIMING OF FRIDAYS FRONT CONTINUES ITS EARLIER
TREND AS WELL...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE SUGGESTING THAT THE
FRONT...AND THE RISK OF RAIN...WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY. LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS FALLING BELOW ONE
INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
WITH SCANT FORCING MECHANISMS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS AND DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY CLIMB SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH DRIER AIRMASS...HEAT INDICES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH HIGHER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVING
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT
STILL NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SLT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED TO AT LEAST CLIMO
VALUES BY LATE TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW-MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(CHANCES INCREASING WEST-EAST) LATE THU AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST AND INTO THU NIGHT (ESP AT
EASTERN TERMINALS) AS THE FRONT TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291919 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(CHANCES INCREASING WEST-EAST) LATE THU AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST AND INTO THU NIGHT (ESP AT
EASTERN TERMINALS) AS THE FRONT TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291919 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(CHANCES INCREASING WEST-EAST) LATE THU AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST AND INTO THU NIGHT (ESP AT
EASTERN TERMINALS) AS THE FRONT TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291919 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(CHANCES INCREASING WEST-EAST) LATE THU AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST AND INTO THU NIGHT (ESP AT
EASTERN TERMINALS) AS THE FRONT TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291919 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN BROAD (ALBEIT WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS WILL
AID IN DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE THU/THU NIGHT. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW-END MODERATE (1000-1500 J/KG)...LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND FORCING /CONVERGENCE/
ATTENDANT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DPVA ATTENDANT A
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE (OR WAVES) EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION (30-40%) BY LATE AFT/EVE...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU EVE AND EARLY THU NIGHT. EXPECT
HIGHS THU AFT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS FRI MORNING IN THE
LOWS 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(CHANCES INCREASING WEST-EAST) LATE THU AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST AND INTO THU NIGHT (ESP AT
EASTERN TERMINALS) AS THE FRONT TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291918
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
318 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY ERODE BEFORE
MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE...A DRY
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES
UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS INLAND MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE IN BETWEEN A FRONT TO
THE WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
SFC DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY
SURPRISING DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF
THE COAST WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
WITH THE FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VRF THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND
SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY
BUILDING TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD/SNC
AVIATION...CQD/LEP
MARINE...CQD/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291918
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
318 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY ERODE BEFORE
MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE...A DRY
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES
UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS INLAND MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERN NC WILL BE IN BETWEEN A FRONT TO
THE WEST AND A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
SFC DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY
SURPRISING DRY ACROSS THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE SFC LOW MOVING OFF
THE COAST WILL CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
WITH THE FRONT HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO EVEN MENTION ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. IF THE SFC LOW MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VRF THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A FRONT TO THE WEST AND
SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS WITH SEAS RESPONDING BY
BUILDING TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD/SNC
AVIATION...CQD/LEP
MARINE...CQD/LEP




000
FXUS62 KILM 291915
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM INLAND LATER TODAY AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY NNWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND NE SURFACE
FLOW HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE COLUMN QUITE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF ITS
DEPTH. EVEN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WELL INLAND THAT WERE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR/CU HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS THEY MIXED OUT
INTO THE DRY AIR. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO NORTHEASTERLY LINED UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WE MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY PRIOR TO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS TX/NM RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE MID/UPPER TROF IS IN A LITTLE BETTER SHAPE FRIDAY AND
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO QUITE HIGH THURSDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK INLAND TROF AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
AND BE AVAIALBLE DURING FRIDAY. MAV NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS/LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO.

ALSO REGARDING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...THE TIDE LEVELS MAY GET CLOSE
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND SPRINGMAID PIER
WITH HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THRESHOLDS
WILL BE MET AT THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT TIDE GAUGE AS WELL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WKND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES SAT AND SUN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND WASHES OUT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEING PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SE
COAST...FILTERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING...A CLEAR DISCONNECT. WHILE THIS FRONT
IS TECHNICALLY OF POLAR ORIGIN (VERY NEAT TO SEE THE TERM POLAR
FRONT USED BY WPC IN THE SOUTHEAST IN JULY)...THERE APPEARS TO BE
LITTLE TRUE COOL ADVECTION WITH IT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN MAINTAINS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO WELL
OFFSHORE. WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND KEEP THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST
SAT/SUN...BUT WILL WALK POP DOWN DUE TO DRYING ALOFT. STILL SCT
SHOWERS/AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS WKND WITH TEMPS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ERODES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS EXPANDS
TO THE NE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH 850MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS
CLIMBING EACH DAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE TEMPS RISING TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH CLIMO OR BELOW POP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CU
AND TRANSITORY UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING ON THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS. SEAS ARE
AVERAGING 3 FT...THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WAVE
HEIGHT CAUSED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION. ABOUT THE ONLY THING
THAT MAY CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A BACKING TO NE SHOULD THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHEN OR DRIFT NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU ALONG
WITH A WEAK INLAND TROUGH WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST AND
STALLS. AS A RESULT...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT ENTIRELY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS FRONTAL PLACEMENT...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STALL AND FALL APART JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS
WILL LEAVE A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SW FLOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...GRADUALLY BECOMING SW AROUND
10 KTS BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST...BECOMING 3-4 FT FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ON THE GREATER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MBB




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291908 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(CHANCES INCREASING WEST-EAST) LATE THU AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST AND INTO THU NIGHT (ESP AT
EASTERN TERMINALS) AS THE FRONT TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291908 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONVECTION: DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MORNING CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (H85
DWPTS ~14C) ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATED
MARGINAL MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER (H85 DWPTS
~16C). SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES WERE NOTED WELL UPSTREAM OVER
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN-MOST OF WHICH MAY TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WV BY ~12Z THU. IN ADDITION TO POOR DIURNAL
TIMING...FORCING ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN N/NNW OF CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNRISE THU. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL/SUBTLE SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO CENTRAL NC (NONE APPEAR TO BE PRESENT)...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SIMILARLY ABSENT...CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BE ISOLD /SPARSE/ AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS/FORCING APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN 21-02Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

TEMPS: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S...
COOLEST N/NW WHERE CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS GREATER AND WARMEST
EAST/SOUTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER /MOISTURE/ IS PRESENT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
(CHANCES INCREASING WEST-EAST) LATE THU AFT/EVE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST AND INTO THU NIGHT (ESP AT
EASTERN TERMINALS) AS THE FRONT TRACKS SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG/
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KILM 291737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY... 12Z RAOBS SHOWED AN INVERSION AT AROUND
900MB THAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN OVERCOME DUE TO MIXING. DRY AIR ABOVE
THIS LAYER MEANS THAT CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP IN MOST
AREAS. MEANWHILE FAR WESTERN ZONES HAVE A MORE STRATOCU APPEARANCE
ON VIS SAT IMAGERY WHERE A BIT OF MOISTURE HAD RESIDED ABOVE THIS
INVERSION. HEATING WILL MAKE THESE CLOUDS TAKE ON A MORE CELLULAR
APPEARANCE AND THEY INDICATE THE ONLY REAL AREAS THAT HAVE ANY SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST 12Z WRF KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY TO
OUR WEST BUT FEEL THAT THE CLOUD LINE REPRESENTS WHERE 20 POPS ARE
WARRANTED. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 18Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CU
AND TRANSITORY UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING ON THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW QUASI-STEADY TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT OUGHT TO BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KILM 291737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY... 12Z RAOBS SHOWED AN INVERSION AT AROUND
900MB THAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN OVERCOME DUE TO MIXING. DRY AIR ABOVE
THIS LAYER MEANS THAT CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP IN MOST
AREAS. MEANWHILE FAR WESTERN ZONES HAVE A MORE STRATOCU APPEARANCE
ON VIS SAT IMAGERY WHERE A BIT OF MOISTURE HAD RESIDED ABOVE THIS
INVERSION. HEATING WILL MAKE THESE CLOUDS TAKE ON A MORE CELLULAR
APPEARANCE AND THEY INDICATE THE ONLY REAL AREAS THAT HAVE ANY SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST 12Z WRF KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY TO
OUR WEST BUT FEEL THAT THE CLOUD LINE REPRESENTS WHERE 20 POPS ARE
WARRANTED. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 18Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CU
AND TRANSITORY UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING ON THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW QUASI-STEADY TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT OUGHT TO BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
133 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL
LIKELY ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN.
THEREFORE...A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VRF THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
133 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL
LIKELY ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN.
THEREFORE...A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VRF THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
133 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL
LIKELY ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN.
THEREFORE...A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VRF THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
133 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL YIELD SUBSIDENCE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SFC A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...FEEL THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANY CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NC MOVING EAST WILL
LIKELY ERODE BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN.
THEREFORE...A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VRF THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SAND HILLS. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH YIELDING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND AND STRATUS POSSIBLE. VSBYS LOOK TO DROP
TO MVFR/IFR...POSSIBLY LOCALIZE LIFR. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW TAF SITES...OAJ/ISO. ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. SLGT CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS
POINT.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KILM 291441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY... 12Z RAOBS SHOWED AN INVERSION AT AROUND
900MB THAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN OVERCOME DUE TO MIXING. DRY AIR ABOVE
THIS LAYER MEANS THAT CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP IN MOST
AREAS. MEANWHILE FAR WESTERN ZONES HAVE A MORE STRATOCU APPEARANCE
ON VIS SAT IMAGERY WHERE A BIT OF MOISTURE HAD RESIDED ABOVE THIS
INVERSION. HEATING WILL MAKE THESE CLOUDS TAKE ON A MORE CELLULAR
APPEARANCE AND THEY INDICATE THE ONLY REAL AREAS THAT HAVE ANY SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST 12Z WRF KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY TO
OUR WEST BUT FEEL THAT THE CLOUD LINE REPRESENTS WHERE 20 POPS ARE
WARRANTED. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF MVFR CEILING THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW QUASI-STEADY TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT OUGHT TO BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KILM 291441
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY... 12Z RAOBS SHOWED AN INVERSION AT AROUND
900MB THAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN OVERCOME DUE TO MIXING. DRY AIR ABOVE
THIS LAYER MEANS THAT CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP IN MOST
AREAS. MEANWHILE FAR WESTERN ZONES HAVE A MORE STRATOCU APPEARANCE
ON VIS SAT IMAGERY WHERE A BIT OF MOISTURE HAD RESIDED ABOVE THIS
INVERSION. HEATING WILL MAKE THESE CLOUDS TAKE ON A MORE CELLULAR
APPEARANCE AND THEY INDICATE THE ONLY REAL AREAS THAT HAVE ANY SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST 12Z WRF KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY TO
OUR WEST BUT FEEL THAT THE CLOUD LINE REPRESENTS WHERE 20 POPS ARE
WARRANTED. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF MVFR CEILING THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW QUASI-STEADY TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT OUGHT TO BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE. PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGES ON UPDATE TO INIT T/TD. PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG CONTS
ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT
CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW
ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED
SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND SXNS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY LOW 90S
INLAND TO THE MID 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE DAY. LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES REMAINING MCLR
TO PCLDY AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 291330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE. PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGES ON UPDATE TO INIT T/TD. PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG CONTS
ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT
CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW
ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED
SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND SXNS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY LOW 90S
INLAND TO THE MID 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE DAY. LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES REMAINING MCLR
TO PCLDY AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291309 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
908 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM WEDNESDAY...

WITH REGARD TO THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO CONFINE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
NE COASTAL PLAIN (I.E. WARREN/HALIFAX COUNTIES) THROUGH NOON. A NEW
DISCUSSION FOR THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT WILL BE POSTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. -VINCENT

PRIOR DISCUSSION: NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY TODAY AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RAP H5 VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG
AND THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE
NC-VA BORDER...NOW SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST
TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.  THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES
OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND
SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY
STEERING FLOW.  OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE FULL SUN POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM WEDNESDAY...

DENSE FOG THIS AT KINT THIS MORNING IS VERY ISOLATED AND WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY 13Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF KRDU/KRWI
AND ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS.  SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.  STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IN PAST NIGHTS
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A BETTER
AGREEMENT ON AMONG MODELS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM KFAY TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291043 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM WEDNESDAY...

DENSE FOG THIS AT KINT THIS MORNING IS VERY ISOLATED AND WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY 13Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF KRDU/KRWI
AND ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS.  SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.  STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IN PAST NIGHTS
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A BETTER
AGREEMENT ON AMONG MODELS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM KFAY TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291043 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM WEDNESDAY...

DENSE FOG THIS AT KINT THIS MORNING IS VERY ISOLATED AND WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY 13Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF KRDU/KRWI
AND ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS.  SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.  STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IN PAST NIGHTS
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A BETTER
AGREEMENT ON AMONG MODELS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM KFAY TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291043 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM WEDNESDAY...

DENSE FOG THIS AT KINT THIS MORNING IS VERY ISOLATED AND WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY 13Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF KRDU/KRWI
AND ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS.  SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.  STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IN PAST NIGHTS
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A BETTER
AGREEMENT ON AMONG MODELS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM KFAY TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291043 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM WEDNESDAY...

DENSE FOG THIS AT KINT THIS MORNING IS VERY ISOLATED AND WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY 13Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF KRDU/KRWI
AND ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS.  SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.  STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IN PAST NIGHTS
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A BETTER
AGREEMENT ON AMONG MODELS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM KFAY TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 291043 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM WEDNESDAY...

DENSE FOG THIS AT KINT THIS MORNING IS VERY ISOLATED AND WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY 13Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF KRDU/KRWI
AND ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS.  SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.  STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IN PAST NIGHTS
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A BETTER
AGREEMENT ON AMONG MODELS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM KFAY TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KILM 291022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...DISTANT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SEA
REVEAL A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS SPINNING
OFF AND EMANATING FROM A CENTER POSITION AROUND 33.08N AND 75.88W
OR ABOUT 140NM ESE OF CAPE FEAR. STEERING WINDS SURROUNDING AND
ABOVE THIS CYCLONIC SWIRL ARE WEAK...AND THIS FEATURE IS APT
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY...KEEPING CONVECTION MAINLY BEYOND OUR 20
NM WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH
THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.

VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW THIS DRY AIR
EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW. THIS
ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN PROXIMITY
TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT EVEN THIS
IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90 COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL KILL WHAT FEW SHOWERS CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF MVFR CEILING THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT OUGHT TO BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 291022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...DISTANT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SEA
REVEAL A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS SPINNING
OFF AND EMANATING FROM A CENTER POSITION AROUND 33.08N AND 75.88W
OR ABOUT 140NM ESE OF CAPE FEAR. STEERING WINDS SURROUNDING AND
ABOVE THIS CYCLONIC SWIRL ARE WEAK...AND THIS FEATURE IS APT
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY...KEEPING CONVECTION MAINLY BEYOND OUR 20
NM WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH
THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.

VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW THIS DRY AIR
EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW. THIS
ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN PROXIMITY
TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT EVEN THIS
IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90 COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL KILL WHAT FEW SHOWERS CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF MVFR CEILING THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT OUGHT TO BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KILM 291022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...DISTANT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SEA
REVEAL A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS SPINNING
OFF AND EMANATING FROM A CENTER POSITION AROUND 33.08N AND 75.88W
OR ABOUT 140NM ESE OF CAPE FEAR. STEERING WINDS SURROUNDING AND
ABOVE THIS CYCLONIC SWIRL ARE WEAK...AND THIS FEATURE IS APT
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY...KEEPING CONVECTION MAINLY BEYOND OUR 20
NM WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH
THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.

VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW THIS DRY AIR
EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW. THIS
ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN PROXIMITY
TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT EVEN THIS
IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90 COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL KILL WHAT FEW SHOWERS CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF MVFR CEILING THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT OUGHT TO BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
546 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY CHANGES ON UPDATE TO INIT T/TD.
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG
CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT
CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW
ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED
SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND SXNS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY LOW 90S
INLAND TO THE MID 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE DAY. LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES REMAINING MCLR
TO PCLDY AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
546 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY CHANGES ON UPDATE TO INIT T/TD.
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG
CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT
CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW
ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED
SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND SXNS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY LOW 90S
INLAND TO THE MID 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE DAY. LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES REMAINING MCLR
TO PCLDY AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
546 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY CHANGES ON UPDATE TO INIT T/TD.
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG
CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT
CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW
ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED
SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND SXNS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY LOW 90S
INLAND TO THE MID 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE DAY. LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES REMAINING MCLR
TO PCLDY AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
546 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY CHANGES ON UPDATE TO INIT T/TD.
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG
CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT
CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW
ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED
SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND SXNS THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY LOW 90S
INLAND TO THE MID 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS INLAND SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE DAY. LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES REMAINING MCLR
TO PCLDY AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 290938
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
538 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...DISTANT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SEA
REVEAL A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS SPINNING
OFF AND EMANATING FROM A CENTER POSITION AROUND 33.08N AND 75.88W
OR ABOUT 140NM ESE OF CAPE FEAR. STEERING WINDS SURROUNDING AND
ABOVE THIS CYCLONIC SWIRL ARE WEAK...AND THIS FEATURE IS APT
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY...KEEPING CONVECTION MAINLY BEYOND OUR 20
NM WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH
THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.

VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW THIS DRY AIR
EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW. THIS
ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN PROXIMITY
TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT EVEN THIS
IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90 COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL KILL WHAT FEW SHOWERS CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT OUGHT TO BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 290938
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
538 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...DISTANT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SEA
REVEAL A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS SPINNING
OFF AND EMANATING FROM A CENTER POSITION AROUND 33.08N AND 75.88W
OR ABOUT 140NM ESE OF CAPE FEAR. STEERING WINDS SURROUNDING AND
ABOVE THIS CYCLONIC SWIRL ARE WEAK...AND THIS FEATURE IS APT
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY...KEEPING CONVECTION MAINLY BEYOND OUR 20
NM WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED WITH
THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.

VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW THIS DRY AIR
EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW. THIS
ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN PROXIMITY
TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT EVEN THIS
IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90 COASTAL
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL KILL WHAT FEW SHOWERS CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 538 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KT OUGHT TO BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
NEARSHORE. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290813 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
413 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING
JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM
UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP.
 BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD
OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT
THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI
MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290813 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
413 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN...
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC.

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING
JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM
UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP.
 BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD
OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT
THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI
MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290800 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING
JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM
UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP.
 BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD
OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT
THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI
MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290800 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN`T
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY.
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING
JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM
UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP.
 BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD
OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT
THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI
MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY...BEING REPLACED BY A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE
WINDS TODAY. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S
KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP TODAY AND HAVE REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND
SXNS FM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW THU AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID
TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WILL ADVERTISE 30-50
POPS...HIGHEST EAST. 29/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY
BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH
HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR
CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.
LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE
DAY. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES
REMAINING MCLR TO PCLDY WITH LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE BOUTS OF RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT AS CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THUSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS
THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN
STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME 5 FOOT SETS POSSIBLE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL/SK
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY...BEING REPLACED BY A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE
WINDS TODAY. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S
KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP TODAY AND HAVE REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND
SXNS FM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW THU AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID
TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WILL ADVERTISE 30-50
POPS...HIGHEST EAST. 29/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY
BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH
HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR
CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.
LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE
DAY. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES
REMAINING MCLR TO PCLDY WITH LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE BOUTS OF RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT AS CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THUSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS
THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN
STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME 5 FOOT SETS POSSIBLE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL/SK
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY...BEING REPLACED BY A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE
WINDS TODAY. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S
KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP TODAY AND HAVE REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND
SXNS FM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW THU AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID
TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WILL ADVERTISE 30-50
POPS...HIGHEST EAST. 29/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY
BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH
HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR
CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.
LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE
DAY. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES
REMAINING MCLR TO PCLDY WITH LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE BOUTS OF RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT AS CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THUSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS
THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN
STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME 5 FOOT SETS POSSIBLE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL/SK
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY...BEING REPLACED BY A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE
WINDS TODAY. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S
KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP TODAY AND HAVE REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND
SXNS FM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW THU AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID
TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WILL ADVERTISE 30-50
POPS...HIGHEST EAST. 29/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY
BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH
HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR
CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.
LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE
DAY. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES
REMAINING MCLR TO PCLDY WITH LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE BOUTS OF RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT AS CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THUSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS
THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN
STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME 5 FOOT SETS POSSIBLE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL/SK
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY...BEING REPLACED BY A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. SFC RDG CONTS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT E-SE
WINDS TODAY. THE UPR RDG WILL CONT CENTERED ACRS THE S CNTRL U.S
KEEPING ENC IN A SUBSIDENT NLY FLOW ALOFT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP TODAY AND HAVE REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS ACRS INLAND
SXNS FM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...UPR RIDGE WILL CONT ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S COAST.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACRS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

THU AND THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW THU AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID
TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WILL ADVERTISE 30-50
POPS...HIGHEST EAST. 29/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY
BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH
HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR
CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.
LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...PRED VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG 08-12Z EACH NIGHT. OTRW SCT
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SCT CU 5-6KFT DVLPG DURING THE
DAY. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT WITH SKIES
REMAINING MCLR TO PCLDY WITH LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE BOUTS OF RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT AS CALM/LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONT ACRS THE WATERS WITH
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E-SE
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THUSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS
THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN
STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME 5 FOOT SETS POSSIBLE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL/SK
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL




000
FXUS62 KILM 290704
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW
THIS DRY AIR EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW.
THIS ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN
PROXIMITY TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT
EVEN THIS IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90
COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL
COOLING WILL KILL WHAT FEW SHOWERS CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF
SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS AND MODERATELY EASTERLY CHOP.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM
WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 290704
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW
THIS DRY AIR EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW.
THIS ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN
PROXIMITY TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT
EVEN THIS IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90
COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL
COOLING WILL KILL WHAT FEW SHOWERS CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF
SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS AND MODERATELY EASTERLY CHOP.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM
WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 290704
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW
THIS DRY AIR EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW.
THIS ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN
PROXIMITY TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT
EVEN THIS IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90
COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL
COOLING WILL KILL WHAT FEW SHOWERS CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF
SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS AND MODERATELY EASTERLY CHOP.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM
WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 290704
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW
THIS DRY AIR EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW.
THIS ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN
PROXIMITY TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT
EVEN THIS IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90
COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL
COOLING WILL KILL WHAT FEW SHOWERS CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF
SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS AND MODERATELY EASTERLY CHOP.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM
WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 290700
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW
THIS DRY AIR EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW.
THIS ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN
PROXIMITY TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT
EVEN THIS IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90
COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL
COOLING WHAT FEW SHOWER CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN EVENING WITH
A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF
SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS AND MODERATELY EASTERLY CHOP.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM
WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 290700
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW
THIS DRY AIR EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW.
THIS ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN
PROXIMITY TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT
EVEN THIS IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90
COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL
COOLING WHAT FEW SHOWER CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN EVENING WITH
A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF
SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS AND MODERATELY EASTERLY CHOP.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM
WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 290700
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY
DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW A DRY INTRUSION ALOFT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS OF RH AND WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOW
THIS DRY AIR EMBEDDED BETWEEN H5-H3 IN A 25-35 KT NORTH WIND FLOW.
THIS ADVECTION WILL CAP LOCAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION AREA RESIDES MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND CLOSEST IN
PROXIMITY TO DYING DISTURBANCES ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NNW BUT
EVEN THIS IS UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUMS TODAY 91-94 INLAND...AROUND 90
COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR. DIURNAL
COOLING WHAT FEW SHOWER CROP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN EVENING WITH
A DRY LAYER ALOFT COVERING THE AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD AS 5H RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND 5H TROUGH STARTS TO
SET UP. ILL DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN ON THU WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE OR
MID LEVEL TRIGGERS WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. PRECIP CHANCES
START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FRONT ARRIVES AS INSTABILITY IS WANING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FOR THU NIGHT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE.

FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA FRI...SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEED 2 INCHES LATER IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SOME SLIGHT PVA FRI AFTERNOON INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POP BUT WONDER IF MID
LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING. SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE LINGERING SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POP THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA SAT KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKS END. AT
THIS POINT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REALLY STARTS TO INCREASE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 5H TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION DRYING OUT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS ILL
DEFINED AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES AT OR
BELOW THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON 30 POP TO START THE WEEK.

PREVIOUSLY GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TUE. WHILE THIS FEATURE
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...JUST BARELY...IT IS IN A WEAKER STATE. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE FREQUENTLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/INFLUENCED WILL
NOT GO ABOVE CLIMO POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO BY DAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...E WIND 10-15 KT TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY 3-3.5 FOOT SEAS. SEAS PRIMARILY A MIX OF
SE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 6 SECONDS AND MODERATELY EASTERLY CHOP.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BEYOND THE 0-20 NM
WATERS TODAY AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ILL-DEFINED GRADIENT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS THU WILL INDUCE LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THU NIGHT. WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU NIGHT GAIN A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT BUT LACK OF ANY REAL GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINS OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD BACK WEST.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10
TO 15 KT AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST BOTH DAYS. SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT ON SAT AND 2 TO 4 FT SUN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290547 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING
JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM
UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP.
 BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD
OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT
THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI
MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290547 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING
JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM
UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP.
 BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD
OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT
THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI
MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290547 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING
JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM
UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP.
 BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD
OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT
THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI
MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290547 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING DIMINISHED A FEW HOURS AGO...LEAVING
JUST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 6K FT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CRUX OF THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM
UPSTREAM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBY TO DEVELOP.
 BASED ON EARLIER RAINFALL...KINT AND KGSO SHOULD RUN THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS...AND KGSO HAS ALREADY REPORTED A PERIOD
OF 1/2SM VSBY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT
THE MOMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR MODEL.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AT OTHER SITES...THOUGH THE OFTEN FOG PRONE KRWI
MAY SEE LOWER VSBYS AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KILM 290532
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
CWA SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE
FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING
FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR
WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS
ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF POPS AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 132 AM WEDNESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND
3 FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272
HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 FT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES
AND AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MAC/8
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 290532
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
CWA SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE
FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING
FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR
WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS
ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF POPS AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE
6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 132 AM WEDNESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND
3 FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272
HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 FT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES
AND AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MAC/8
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR/8




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290438
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. WILL CONT TO
SEE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST. BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PAST CPL NIGHTS JUST EXPECTING
LIGHT PATCHY FOG TWD MORN WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH
THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO
ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND.
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY
A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG 08-11Z WITH SOME SCT MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
TODAY WITH CONT VFR AS SKIES REMAIN MCLR TO PC AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. LIGHT ESE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH E-SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4
FOOT SETS ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/SK/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/SK/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290438
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. WILL CONT TO
SEE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST. BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PAST CPL NIGHTS JUST EXPECTING
LIGHT PATCHY FOG TWD MORN WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH
THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO
ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND.
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY
A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG 08-11Z WITH SOME SCT MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
TODAY WITH CONT VFR AS SKIES REMAIN MCLR TO PC AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. LIGHT ESE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH E-SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4
FOOT SETS ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/SK/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/SK/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290438
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. WILL CONT TO
SEE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST. BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PAST CPL NIGHTS JUST EXPECTING
LIGHT PATCHY FOG TWD MORN WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH
THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO
ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND.
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY
A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG 08-11Z WITH SOME SCT MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
TODAY WITH CONT VFR AS SKIES REMAIN MCLR TO PC AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. LIGHT ESE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH E-SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4
FOOT SETS ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/SK/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/SK/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290438
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. WILL CONT TO
SEE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST. BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PAST CPL NIGHTS JUST EXPECTING
LIGHT PATCHY FOG TWD MORN WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH
THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO
ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND.
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY
A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG 08-11Z WITH SOME SCT MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
TODAY WITH CONT VFR AS SKIES REMAIN MCLR TO PC AND LGT E-SE WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. LIGHT ESE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH E-SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4
FOOT SETS ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THU INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...JAC/RF
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...JAC/RF/SK/TL
MARINE...JAC/RF/SK/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290251
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.ED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO WANE...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT
FOG PRONE KRWI AND IN THE WEST WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL/WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290251
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.ED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO WANE...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT
FOG PRONE KRWI AND IN THE WEST WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290251 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO
WANE...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT FOG PRONE KRWI AND IN THE WEST WHERE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL/WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290251 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO
WANE...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT FOG PRONE KRWI AND IN THE WEST WHERE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL/WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290251 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO
WANE...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT FOG PRONE KRWI AND IN THE WEST WHERE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL/WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290251 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO
WANE...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT FOG PRONE KRWI AND IN THE WEST WHERE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL/WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 290251
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...

THE 00Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN VA...
THE CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES CAMS TRY TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NW TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR IS ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.ED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO WANE...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT
FOG PRONE KRWI AND IN THE WEST WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL/WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 290151
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE
FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING
FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR
WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS
ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF POPS AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272
HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND
AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN




000
FXUS62 KILM 290151
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE
FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING
FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR
WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS
ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF POPS AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272
HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND
AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



000
FXUS62 KILM 290151
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE
FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING
FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR
WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS
ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF POPS AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272
HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND
AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



000
FXUS62 KILM 290151
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE
FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING
FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR
WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS
ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF POPS AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272
HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND
AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



000
FXUS62 KILM 290151
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE
FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING
FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR
WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS
ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF POPS AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272
HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND
AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



000
FXUS62 KILM 290151
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA
SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE
FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S
OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING
FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR
WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS
ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF POPS AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272
HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND
AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



000
FXUS62 KMHX 290137
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP EARLIER AS
ACTIVITY TO THE NW QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND MDLS DO NOT SHOW ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS INSTAB WANES. WILL CONT TO SEE SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PAST CPL NIGHTS JUST EXPECTING LIGHT
PATCHY FOG LATE WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH
THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO
ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND.
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY
A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT
MVFR FOG LATE WITH SOME SCT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AGAIN WED WITH CONT VFR AS SKIES REMAIN
MCLR TO PC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

PREV DISC...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4 FOOT SETS
ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE BY
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...RF/SK/TL
MARINE...RF/SK/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290137
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP EARLIER AS
ACTIVITY TO THE NW QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND MDLS DO NOT SHOW ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS INSTAB WANES. WILL CONT TO SEE SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PAST CPL NIGHTS JUST EXPECTING LIGHT
PATCHY FOG LATE WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH
THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO
ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND.
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY
A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT
MVFR FOG LATE WITH SOME SCT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AGAIN WED WITH CONT VFR AS SKIES REMAIN
MCLR TO PC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

PREV DISC...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4 FOOT SETS
ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE BY
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...RF/SK/TL
MARINE...RF/SK/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290137
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP EARLIER AS
ACTIVITY TO THE NW QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND MDLS DO NOT SHOW ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS INSTAB WANES. WILL CONT TO SEE SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WITH LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PAST CPL NIGHTS JUST EXPECTING LIGHT
PATCHY FOG LATE WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH
THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO
ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND.
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY
A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT
MVFR FOG LATE WITH SOME SCT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AGAIN WED WITH CONT VFR AS SKIES REMAIN
MCLR TO PC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

PREV DISC...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4 FOOT SETS
ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE BY
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...RF/SK/TL
MARINE...RF/SK/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KILM 282355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG
AND INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES AS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE SUPPORTED BY SOME WIND CONVERGENCE WITH
A WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR NEXT 3 HOURS AS I
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SOON. POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG DECREASING TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND GEORGETOWN. REST OF DISCUSSION THE
SAME...SHOWERS THAT WERE APPROACHING THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ANOTHER BATCH FURTHER
UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION IS BECOMING A BIT TOUGH TO OVERCOME. A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF WINYAH BAY. THIS SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. ELSEWHERE THE REST OF
THE CWA REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A
STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND
AMZ272 HAVE KICKED UP SEA TO 4-5 FEET BUT EXPECT SEAS TO ABATE
AFTER CONVECTION PASSES/DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN




000
FXUS62 KILM 282355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG
AND INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES AS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE SUPPORTED BY SOME WIND CONVERGENCE WITH
A WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR NEXT 3 HOURS AS I
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SOON. POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG DECREASING TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND GEORGETOWN. REST OF DISCUSSION THE
SAME...SHOWERS THAT WERE APPROACHING THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ANOTHER BATCH FURTHER
UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION IS BECOMING A BIT TOUGH TO OVERCOME. A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF WINYAH BAY. THIS SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. ELSEWHERE THE REST OF
THE CWA REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A
STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND
AMZ272 HAVE KICKED UP SEA TO 4-5 FEET BUT EXPECT SEAS TO ABATE
AFTER CONVECTION PASSES/DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



000
FXUS62 KILM 282355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG
AND INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES AS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE SUPPORTED BY SOME WIND CONVERGENCE WITH
A WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR NEXT 3 HOURS AS I
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SOON. POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG DECREASING TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND GEORGETOWN. REST OF DISCUSSION THE
SAME...SHOWERS THAT WERE APPROACHING THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ANOTHER BATCH FURTHER
UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION IS BECOMING A BIT TOUGH TO OVERCOME. A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF WINYAH BAY. THIS SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. ELSEWHERE THE REST OF
THE CWA REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A
STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND
AMZ272 HAVE KICKED UP SEA TO 4-5 FEET BUT EXPECT SEAS TO ABATE
AFTER CONVECTION PASSES/DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN




000
FXUS62 KILM 282355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG
AND INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES AS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE SUPPORTED BY SOME WIND CONVERGENCE WITH
A WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR NEXT 3 HOURS AS I
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SOON. POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG DECREASING TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND GEORGETOWN. REST OF DISCUSSION THE
SAME...SHOWERS THAT WERE APPROACHING THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ANOTHER BATCH FURTHER
UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION IS BECOMING A BIT TOUGH TO OVERCOME. A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF WINYAH BAY. THIS SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. ELSEWHERE THE REST OF
THE CWA REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A
STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND
AMZ272 HAVE KICKED UP SEA TO 4-5 FEET BUT EXPECT SEAS TO ABATE
AFTER CONVECTION PASSES/DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



000
FXUS62 KRAH 282354
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY OF A WEAK/DISSIPATING SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE VA BORDER. THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN VA ALSO
SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK SWD DRIFTING SHEAR AXIS...DEPICTED IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIP WATER (1.8-2 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-1.5 INCHES.  BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO
THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ISATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.OLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY.ED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO WANE...AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT
FOG PRONE KRWI AND IN THE WEST WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVIEST.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CBL/WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 282327
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...SHOWERS THAT WERE APPROACHING THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...A
COUPLE OF SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ANOTHER
BATCH FURTHER UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE PEE DEE REGION IS BECOMING A BIT TOUGH TO OVERCOME. A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF WINYAH BAY. THIS
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. ELSEWHERE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A
STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND
AMZ272 HAVE KICKED UP SEA TO 4-5 FEET BUT EXPECT SEAS TO ABATE
AFTER CONVECTION PASSES/DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



000
FXUS62 KILM 282327
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...SHOWERS THAT WERE APPROACHING THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...A
COUPLE OF SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ANOTHER
BATCH FURTHER UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE PEE DEE REGION IS BECOMING A BIT TOUGH TO OVERCOME. A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF WINYAH BAY. THIS
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. ELSEWHERE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A
STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A
WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN
INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS FROM
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15 KT MID
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
SHRA WILL REMAIN TO THE W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS AND WELL
OFFSHORE.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG
THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3
FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND
AMZ272 HAVE KICKED UP SEA TO 4-5 FEET BUT EXPECT SEAS TO ABATE
AFTER CONVECTION PASSES/DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NO
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN




000
FXUS62 KILM 282225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...SHOWERS THAT WERE APPROACHING THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...A
COUPLE OF SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ANOTHER
BATCH FURTHER UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE PEE DEE REGION IS BECOMING A BIT TOUGH TO OVERCOME. A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF WINYAH BAY. THIS
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. ELSEWHERE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A
STEADY NELY FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.  VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A WIMPY
SURFACE PATTERN.  THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  20 POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN INSTABILITY
IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD THUS WILL USE
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15
KT MID MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
STILL SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE WELL TO THE SE
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG THE
PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...EASTNORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF
AROUND 3 FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
AMZ256 AND AMZ272 HAVE KICKED UP SEA TO 4-5 FEET BUT EXPECT SEAS
TO ABATE AFTER CONVECTION PASSES/DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN




000
FXUS62 KILM 282225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...SHOWERS THAT WERE APPROACHING THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...A
COUPLE OF SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO DARLINGTON COUNTY. ANOTHER
BATCH FURTHER UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WILL SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE PEE DEE REGION IS BECOMING A BIT TOUGH TO OVERCOME. A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF WINYAH BAY. THIS
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. ELSEWHERE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED MIXING FROM A
STEADY NELY FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.  VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A WIMPY
SURFACE PATTERN.  THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  20 POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN INSTABILITY
IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD THUS WILL USE
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-15
KT MID MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
STILL SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE WELL TO THE SE
OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND W-NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG THE
PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...EASTNORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF
AROUND 3 FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
AMZ256 AND AMZ272 HAVE KICKED UP SEA TO 4-5 FEET BUT EXPECT SEAS
TO ABATE AFTER CONVECTION PASSES/DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...MAC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...JDW/MAC/RAN



000
FXUS62 KMHX 282205
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
605 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY CONVECTION IS REMAINING
WELL NW OF ERN NC WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTAB A LITTLE BETTER. MOST
ALL HIGH RES MDLS DISSIPATE SHRA/TSRA BEFORE REACHING ERN NC AND
TRIMMED POPS BACK WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC FAR NW TIER NEXT FEW HRS.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PAST CPL NIGHTS JUST EXPECTING LIGHT
PATCHY FOG LATE WITH LITTLE IMPACT. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM
AROUND 70/LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH
THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO
ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND.
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY
A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST PATCHY LIGHT
MVFR FOG LATE WITH SOME SCT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AGAIN WED WITH CONT VFR AS SKIES REMAIN
MCLR TO PC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4 FOOT SETS
ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE BY
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...RF/SK/TL
MARINE...RF/SK/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281938
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS YIELDED
UPPER NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDING THE RIDGE HAS HELPED GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL
INLAND AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BECOMES
THE AXIS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
LITTLE FORCING ACROSS EASTERN NC...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LIGHT SE WINDS. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID
70S ALONG THE BEACHES. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA AROUND 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH
THE NE WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WHILE INSTABILITY AT THE SFC
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE FORCING OR BOUNDARY AVAILABLE...SO
ANTICIPATE JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND.
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL BRINGING
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY
A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES
TO BE A BIT DRY BIASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE WETTER
WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS
CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z
FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH SOME 4 FOOT
SETS ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE BY
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE NC WATERS WILL PRODUCE S TO SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN
IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING
WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW
WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/LEP
LEP MARINE...SK/LEP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281932
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY OF A WEAK/DISSIPATING SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE VA BORDER. THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN VA ALSO
SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK SWD DRIFTING SHEAR AXIS...DEPICTED IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIP WATER (1.8-2 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-1.5 INCHES.  BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO
THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS OCCURRENCE IN MORE PROBABLE AT KGSO/KINT
AND POSSIBLY KRDU. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO WINDOW
OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND
POSSIBLY KFAY.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281932
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY OF A WEAK/DISSIPATING SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE VA BORDER. THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN VA ALSO
SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK SWD DRIFTING SHEAR AXIS...DEPICTED IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIP WATER (1.8-2 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-1.5 INCHES.  BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO
THE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPORARILY
AMPLIFIES/EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL INDUCE A MID LEVEL CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE PERSISTENT
LEESIDE TROUGH AND A STALLED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION INT EH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WEDNEDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO HIGH TEMPS RECORDED TODAY
(NEAR 90-LOWER 90S). POTENTIAL TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS FLIRT WITH MID 90S.  MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS OCCURRENCE IN MORE PROBABLE AT KGSO/KINT
AND POSSIBLY KRDU. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO WINDOW
OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND
POSSIBLY KFAY.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 281929
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS CONVECTION-FREE AS OF
THIS HOUR ALTHOUGH A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH ARE IN
PROGRESS TO OUR WEST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE ADEQUATE MOISTURE. GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT SEA-BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO BE SPARSE OR NON-EXISTENT THIS PERIOD...SO HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AND
CONTINUED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES.
GUIDANCE AND PRESENT STORM MOTION INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME OF
THE PIEDMONT-TROUGH RELATED CONVECTION DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THESE
INLAND COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS CONVECTION
SEEMS ENTIRELY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONTINUED MIXING FROM A STEADY NELY FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING
THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.  VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A WIMPY
SURFACE PATTERN.  THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  20 POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN INSTABILITY
IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4K WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS OF
AROUND 3 FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK



000
FXUS62 KILM 281929
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS CONVECTION-FREE AS OF
THIS HOUR ALTHOUGH A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH ARE IN
PROGRESS TO OUR WEST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE ADEQUATE MOISTURE. GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT SEA-BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO BE SPARSE OR NON-EXISTENT THIS PERIOD...SO HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AND
CONTINUED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES.
GUIDANCE AND PRESENT STORM MOTION INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME OF
THE PIEDMONT-TROUGH RELATED CONVECTION DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THESE
INLAND COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS CONVECTION
SEEMS ENTIRELY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONVERGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70 RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONTINUED MIXING FROM A STEADY NELY FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING
THICK OR WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.  VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A WIMPY
SURFACE PATTERN.  THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  20 POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN INSTABILITY
IS AT A MINIMUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR
SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS
UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP
EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVERHEAD.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4K WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS OF
AROUND 3 FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS.  SPEEDS OF
15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK
GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH
PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...REK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS OCCURRENCE IN MORE PROBABLE AT KGSO/KINT
AND POSSIBLY KRDU. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO WINDOW
OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND
POSSIBLY KFAY.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS OCCURRENCE IN MORE PROBABLE AT KGSO/KINT
AND POSSIBLY KRDU. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO WINDOW
OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND
POSSIBLY KFAY.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS OCCURRENCE IN MORE PROBABLE AT KGSO/KINT
AND POSSIBLY KRDU. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO WINDOW
OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND
POSSIBLY KFAY.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BEGIN LATE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND IN DOING SO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO BEGIN RAMPING POPS UP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF DAYTIME
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM W-
E DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME NEAR NORMAL.

FAIR WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL NC OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND MUCH DRIER AIR
OVER OUR REGION. THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS STILL APPEARS TO
SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW 90S...SO LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF
TEMPERATURE-WISE DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH.

POPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO DAILY CLIMO VALUES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PWAT SLOWLY RECOVERS.  HOWEVER...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN THE BETTER SYNOP FEATURES
REMAINING BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH.

IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME...ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN COULD MEAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR US DURING THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO GIVEN OUR
PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ISN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS OCCURRENCE IN MORE PROBABLE AT KGSO/KINT
AND POSSIBLY KRDU. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO WINDOW
OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND
POSSIBLY KFAY.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281801
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS YIELDED
UPPER NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDING THE RIDGE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL
INLAND AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BECOMES
THE AXIS FOR ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. YOU CAN ALREADY SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A PORTION OF VA AND NC. GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LITTLE FORCING ACROSS EASTERN NC...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LIGHT SE
WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN
ISSUE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOME MODELS
INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AROUND 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z
FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
THE LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281801
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS YIELDED
UPPER NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDING THE RIDGE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL
INLAND AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BECOMES
THE AXIS FOR ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. YOU CAN ALREADY SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A PORTION OF VA AND NC. GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LITTLE FORCING ACROSS EASTERN NC...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LIGHT SE
WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN
ISSUE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOME MODELS
INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AROUND 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z
FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
THE LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281801
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS YIELDED
UPPER NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDING THE RIDGE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL
INLAND AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BECOMES
THE AXIS FOR ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. YOU CAN ALREADY SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A PORTION OF VA AND NC. GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LITTLE FORCING ACROSS EASTERN NC...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LIGHT SE
WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN
ISSUE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOME MODELS
INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AROUND 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z
FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
THE LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281801
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS HAS YIELDED
UPPER NW FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDING THE RIDGE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL
INLAND AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BECOMES
THE AXIS FOR ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. YOU CAN ALREADY SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A PORTION OF VA AND NC. GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LITTLE FORCING ACROSS EASTERN NC...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LIGHT SE
WINDS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN
ISSUE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOME MODELS
INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AROUND 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z
FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
THE LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281723
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS OCCURRENCE IN MORE PROBABLE AT KGSO/KINT
AND POSSIBLY KRDU. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO WINDOW
OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND
POSSIBLY KFAY.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281723
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS OCCURRENCE IN MORE PROBABLE AT KGSO/KINT
AND POSSIBLY KRDU. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO WINDOW
OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. THIS OCCURRENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND
POSSIBLY KFAY.

OTHERWISE...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF INSTANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING
MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION...AND EARLY MORNING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED FRIDAY
AS A SFC FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 281718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...SOME CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BUT OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BUT
OTHERWISE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER
HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-15 KT
WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM
JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3 FT SEAS WITH
NE TO ERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE
FORECAST. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4
FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 281718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...SOME CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BUT OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BUT
OTHERWISE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER
HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-15 KT
WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM
JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3 FT SEAS WITH
NE TO ERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE
FORECAST. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4
FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 281718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...SOME CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BUT OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BUT
OTHERWISE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER
HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-15 KT
WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM
JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3 FT SEAS WITH
NE TO ERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE
FORECAST. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4
FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 281718
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...SOME CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE UP OVER
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BUT OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BUT
OTHERWISE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER
HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-15 KT
WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM
JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3 FT SEAS WITH
NE TO ERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE
FORECAST. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4
FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281503
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TAF SITE...MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY...AND THUS INCLUDING IN THE TAF...AT KGSO AND
KINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE OFTEN FOG PLAGUED TERMINAL AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281503
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TAF SITE...MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY...AND THUS INCLUDING IN THE TAF...AT KGSO AND
KINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE OFTEN FOG PLAGUED TERMINAL AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 281503
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TAF SITE...MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY...AND THUS INCLUDING IN THE TAF...AT KGSO AND
KINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE OFTEN FOG PLAGUED TERMINAL AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281503
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. NAMELY TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS...AND TO CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE
WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A NWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A
FEW VORT MAXIMA CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER OH AND
EASTERN TN VALLEYS. PER TRAJECTORIES...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CONFLUENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WAS
VERY WEAK. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
TODAY. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM ALOFT. THUS
BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.
THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE YADKIN
RIVER VALLEY AND THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE POP
FOR THE TRIAD REGION AS 40-50% MAY BE TOO HIGH.

STRONG HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S BY
MID-LATE MORNING. IN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 90S WITH
NEAR/LOWER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. -WSS

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TAF SITE...MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY...AND THUS INCLUDING IN THE TAF...AT KGSO AND
KINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE OFTEN FOG PLAGUED TERMINAL AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KILM 281430
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...NOTHING ON THE RADAR SCOPE THIS MORNING.
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRMS EARLIER FORECAST OF A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AT BEST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DESPITE
AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER
HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-15 KT
WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM
JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW 3 FT SEAS WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE FORECAST. EXPECT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4
FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 281430
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...NOTHING ON THE RADAR SCOPE THIS MORNING.
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRMS EARLIER FORECAST OF A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AT BEST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DESPITE
AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER
HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-15 KT
WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM
JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW 3 FT SEAS WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE FORECAST. EXPECT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4
FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281338
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HEATING UP THIS MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG THAT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12 TO 13Z.
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. PER EMC WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
PRIMARILY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SMALL CHC POP WILL
REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 17
CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURNOFF BY 12Z TO
13Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
THE LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281338
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HEATING UP THIS MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG THAT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12 TO 13Z.
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. PER EMC WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
PRIMARILY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SMALL CHC POP WILL
REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 17
CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURNOFF BY 12Z TO
13Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
THE LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281338
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HEATING UP THIS MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG THAT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12 TO 13Z.
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. PER EMC WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
PRIMARILY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SMALL CHC POP WILL
REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 17
CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURNOFF BY 12Z TO
13Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
THE LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281338
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HEATING UP THIS MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG THAT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12 TO 13Z.
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. PER EMC WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
PRIMARILY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SMALL CHC POP WILL
REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 17
CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SHOW
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURNOFF BY 12Z TO
13Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
THE LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP



000
FXUS62 KILM 281137
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING
SHOW A BROAD UPPER HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER
THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST
WIND 10-15 KT WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET
VEERING TO NE ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
DEEPENING FROM JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER
AND ISOLATED TSTM ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF
CAPE FEAR...SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO
80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4 FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN
OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 281137
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING
SHOW A BROAD UPPER HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER
THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST
WIND 10-15 KT WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET
VEERING TO NE ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
DEEPENING FROM JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER
AND ISOLATED TSTM ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF
CAPE FEAR...SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO
80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4 FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN
OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR



000
FXUS62 KILM 281137
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING
SHOW A BROAD UPPER HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER
THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST
WIND 10-15 KT WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET
VEERING TO NE ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
DEEPENING FROM JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER
AND ISOLATED TSTM ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF
CAPE FEAR...SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN
CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY.

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO
80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4 FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN
OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281108
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG THAT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12 TO 13Z. SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. PER EMC
WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PRIMARILY OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SMALL CHC POP WILL REMAIN WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURNOFF BY 12Z TO
13Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON THE
LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE
WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY
E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE
AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 281108
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG THAT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12 TO 13Z. SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. PER EMC
WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PRIMARILY OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SMALL CHC POP WILL REMAIN WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...PATCHES OF MVFR FOG SHOULD BURNOFF BY 12Z TO
13Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON THE
LATEST SET OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...OTHERWISE
WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY
E TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE
AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WITH A ROLLING 10-12 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281047
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...

SUB-VFR VSBYS AT KRWI WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MRONING AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TAF SITE...MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY...AND THUS INCLUSIONG IN THE TAF...AT KGSO AND
KINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE OFTEN FOG PLAGUED TERMINAL AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281047
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...

SUB-VFR VSBYS AT KRWI WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MRONING AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TAF SITE...MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY...AND THUS INCLUSIONG IN THE TAF...AT KGSO AND
KINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE OFTEN FOG PLAGUED TERMINAL AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281047
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...

SUB-VFR VSBYS AT KRWI WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MRONING AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TAF SITE...MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY...AND THUS INCLUSIONG IN THE TAF...AT KGSO AND
KINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE OFTEN FOG PLAGUED TERMINAL AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281047
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...

SUB-VFR VSBYS AT KRWI WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS MRONING AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY
TAF SITE...MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY...AND THUS INCLUSIONG IN THE TAF...AT KGSO AND
KINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SOME AREAS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE OFTEN FOG PLAGUED TERMINAL AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KILM 281026
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING
SHOW A BROAD UPPER HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER
THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST
WIND 10-15 KT WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET
VEERING TO NE ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
DEEPENING FROM JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER
AND ISOLATED TSTM ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF
CAPE FEAR...SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO
80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4 FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN
OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...8



000
FXUS62 KILM 281026
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING
SHOW A BROAD UPPER HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER
THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST
WIND 10-15 KT WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET
VEERING TO NE ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
DEEPENING FROM JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER
AND ISOLATED TSTM ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF
CAPE FEAR...SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO
80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4 FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN
OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...8




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280820
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280820
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280820
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280820
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF TWO
DOMINANT FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE - A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY
WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND A MID-UPPER LOW FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY.
BOTH ARE FORECAST TO THEN BECOME ANCHORED OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/TOWARD HUDSON BAY WILL SETTLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
LATE THU-FRI...THOUGH OVERNIGHT DIURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN CENTRAL NC SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING. THE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT --AND PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WILL
THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...WHILE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE MASS FIELDS...THERE
REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL NC FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
CONFIGURATION OF A TROUGH ALOFT IN THE EASTERN US WOULD SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE SUPPRESSION OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WOULD
FOCUS THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT BACK (BY ABOUT 25%) WPC
POP...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POP...HIGHEST
SOUTHEAST AND MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT NORTHERN AND NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL...IF ANY...FRI-SAT. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LURKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY THEN GET DRAWN
NORTH AND ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY SUN-MON...AT
WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE...WITH NUMEROUS ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCES
STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES IN EARNEST AS PW HAS RECOVERED TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING AREN`T
FORECAST DROP MUCH TODAY GIVEN WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW/MIXING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PROJECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING..ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS...WHICH
AGAIN FAVORS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THAT
WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HIGHS 89-94.

PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...STAYING CONFINED TO THE
PIEDMONT.  LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT ON WEDNESDAY BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...LEADING A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NC AND MOST NWP FAVORS THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE BEST COVERAGE TO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS WILL BE BE WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
TODAY`S VALUES...89-94.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KILM 280742
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING
SHOW A BROAD UPPER HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE
CAROLINAS ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-
15 KT WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM JAX
FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO
80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4 FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS
IN OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KILM 280742
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING
SHOW A BROAD UPPER HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE
CAROLINAS ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-
15 KT WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE
ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM JAX
FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM
ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT.

OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE
HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77
FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED
WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS
INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO
80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4 FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS
IN OPEN DEEP WATER.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A
GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN
FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL
CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL
SUFFICE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/DL
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT
E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. PER EMC WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PRIMARILY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A
SMALL CHC POP WILL REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND
THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR
CWA. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME PATCHY
FOG BUT WILL KEEP IN MVFR RANGE GIVEN PERSISTENCE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURNOFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MAINLY
VFR TUE...EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CVRG OF CONVECTION INLAND TOMM
BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CVRG THIS FAR OUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
THE SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY SE EXCEPT MORE E OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3
FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WITH A ROLLING 10-12
SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT
E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. PER EMC WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PRIMARILY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A
SMALL CHC POP WILL REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND
THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR
CWA. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME PATCHY
FOG BUT WILL KEEP IN MVFR RANGE GIVEN PERSISTENCE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURNOFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MAINLY
VFR TUE...EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CVRG OF CONVECTION INLAND TOMM
BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CVRG THIS FAR OUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
THE SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY SE EXCEPT MORE E OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3
FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WITH A ROLLING 10-12
SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT
E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. PER EMC WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PRIMARILY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A
SMALL CHC POP WILL REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND
THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR
CWA. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME PATCHY
FOG BUT WILL KEEP IN MVFR RANGE GIVEN PERSISTENCE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURNOFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MAINLY
VFR TUE...EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CVRG OF CONVECTION INLAND TOMM
BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CVRG THIS FAR OUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
THE SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY SE EXCEPT MORE E OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3
FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WITH A ROLLING 10-12
SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT
E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. PER EMC WRF AND HRRR...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PRIMARILY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A
SMALL CHC POP WILL REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC FURTHER EAST TO AROUND
THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO OUR
CWA. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT AGAIN MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND E AND KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY. ONLY A RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NW SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE AS UPR RDG
FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION SAT AND SUN.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE SE CST WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FRI
THRU MON DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP AND UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. DETERMINISTIC GFS A BIT DRY BIASED
AND THEREFORE TRENDED WITH THE WETTER WPC PROGS WHICH HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE NCEP AND ECM ENS MEAN. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH
AROUND 90 INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME PATCHY
FOG BUT WILL KEEP IN MVFR RANGE GIVEN PERSISTENCE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURNOFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MAINLY
VFR TUE...EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CVRG OF CONVECTION INLAND TOMM
BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CVRG THIS FAR OUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED AND
THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND WELL INLAND
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF TEMPO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
THE SHORT TERM. WINDS GENERALLY SE EXCEPT MORE E OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2 TO 3
FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WITH A ROLLING 10-12
SECOND PERIOD SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED
FRONT TO THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 5 TO 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC
WATERS WILL PRODUCE SE WINDS THOUGH REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE THUR
INTO FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN STALLING WHILE WEAKENING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SW WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280554
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...

DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT COINCIDENT WITH TWO CONVERGING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AIDED
BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SEEN CLEARLY IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHILE CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE BACK/FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/RIDGE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
MAKING A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VA AT THIS TIME. TO THE WEST
OF THIS HOWEVER...A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE HRRR HOLDS
ONTO SOME RAINFALL IN THE SW PIEDMONT FOR LONGER THAN THE WRF
SIMULATIONS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WILL
START TO SEE POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN RAIN MOISTENED AREAS
AS WELL AS POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...COOLEST IN THE NE
COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CEASE ONCE/IF DRY AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.

WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280554
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...

DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT COINCIDENT WITH TWO CONVERGING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AIDED
BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SEEN CLEARLY IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHILE CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE BACK/FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/RIDGE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
MAKING A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VA AT THIS TIME. TO THE WEST
OF THIS HOWEVER...A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE HRRR HOLDS
ONTO SOME RAINFALL IN THE SW PIEDMONT FOR LONGER THAN THE WRF
SIMULATIONS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WILL
START TO SEE POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN RAIN MOISTENED AREAS
AS WELL AS POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...COOLEST IN THE NE
COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CEASE ONCE/IF DRY AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.

WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280554
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...

DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT COINCIDENT WITH TWO CONVERGING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AIDED
BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SEEN CLEARLY IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHILE CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE BACK/FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/RIDGE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
MAKING A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VA AT THIS TIME. TO THE WEST
OF THIS HOWEVER...A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE HRRR HOLDS
ONTO SOME RAINFALL IN THE SW PIEDMONT FOR LONGER THAN THE WRF
SIMULATIONS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WILL
START TO SEE POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN RAIN MOISTENED AREAS
AS WELL AS POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...COOLEST IN THE NE
COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CEASE ONCE/IF DRY AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.

WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280554
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...

DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT COINCIDENT WITH TWO CONVERGING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AIDED
BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SEEN CLEARLY IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHILE CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE BACK/FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/RIDGE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
MAKING A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VA AT THIS TIME. TO THE WEST
OF THIS HOWEVER...A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE HRRR HOLDS
ONTO SOME RAINFALL IN THE SW PIEDMONT FOR LONGER THAN THE WRF
SIMULATIONS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WILL
START TO SEE POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN RAIN MOISTENED AREAS
AS WELL AS POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...COOLEST IN THE NE
COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CEASE ONCE/IF DRY AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.

WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280554
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...

DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT COINCIDENT WITH TWO CONVERGING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AIDED
BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SEEN CLEARLY IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHILE CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE BACK/FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/RIDGE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
MAKING A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VA AT THIS TIME. TO THE WEST
OF THIS HOWEVER...A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE HRRR HOLDS
ONTO SOME RAINFALL IN THE SW PIEDMONT FOR LONGER THAN THE WRF
SIMULATIONS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WILL
START TO SEE POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN RAIN MOISTENED AREAS
AS WELL AS POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...COOLEST IN THE NE
COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CEASE ONCE/IF DRY AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.

WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KRAH 280554
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...

DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT COINCIDENT WITH TWO CONVERGING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AIDED
BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SEEN CLEARLY IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHILE CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE BACK/FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/RIDGE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
MAKING A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VA AT THIS TIME. TO THE WEST
OF THIS HOWEVER...A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE HRRR HOLDS
ONTO SOME RAINFALL IN THE SW PIEDMONT FOR LONGER THAN THE WRF
SIMULATIONS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WILL
START TO SEE POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN RAIN MOISTENED AREAS
AS WELL AS POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...COOLEST IN THE NE
COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CEASE ONCE/IF DRY AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.

WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER.  THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW.  GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT.  HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.

WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.

OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22



000
FXUS62 KILM 280508
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT TO
UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS
STABILIZATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 280508
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT TO
UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS
STABILIZATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 280508
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT TO
UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS
STABILIZATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 280508
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT TO
UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS
STABILIZATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8



000
FXUS62 KILM 280508
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT TO
UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS
STABILIZATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8




000
FXUS62 KILM 280508
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT TO
UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS
STABILIZATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280455
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOWS GENERALLY
LOW/MID 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT ANY REDUCTIONS
TO VSBY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...UPR RIDGE SHARPENS TO THE W TUE ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO DROP SE THRU THE REGION. NOT MUCH
TO FOCUS PRECIP WITH STALLED FRONT CONTG WELL TO THE SOUTH. CONT
CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
ARND 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND
KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY WED AND THU. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPR RDG FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION
SAT AND SUN. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE
SE CST WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS FRI THRU MON GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG AND TIMING OF
PCPN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90
INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME PATCHY
FOG BUT WILL KEEP IN MVFR RANGE GIVEN PERSISTENCE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURNOFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MAINLY
VFR TUE...EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CVRG OF CONVECTION INLAND TOMM
BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CVRG THIS FAR OUT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED
AND THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THU NIGHT THRU FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A ROLLING 10-11 SECOND SWELL.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THIS PATTERN CONTS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE WITH A LIGHT ELY FLOW ARND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED FRONT TO
THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 15 KTS THRU
WED. AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE LATE WEEK WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S TO SW THU AND FRI WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
AOB 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE WATERS FRI THRU SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4FT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK



000
FXUS62 KMHX 280455
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOWS GENERALLY
LOW/MID 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT ANY REDUCTIONS
TO VSBY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...UPR RIDGE SHARPENS TO THE W TUE ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO DROP SE THRU THE REGION. NOT MUCH
TO FOCUS PRECIP WITH STALLED FRONT CONTG WELL TO THE SOUTH. CONT
CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
ARND 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND
KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY WED AND THU. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPR RDG FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION
SAT AND SUN. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE
SE CST WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS FRI THRU MON GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG AND TIMING OF
PCPN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90
INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME PATCHY
FOG BUT WILL KEEP IN MVFR RANGE GIVEN PERSISTENCE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURNOFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MAINLY
VFR TUE...EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CVRG OF CONVECTION INLAND TOMM
BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
CVRG THIS FAR OUT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED
AND THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THU NIGHT THRU FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A ROLLING 10-11 SECOND SWELL.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THIS PATTERN CONTS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE WITH A LIGHT ELY FLOW ARND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED FRONT TO
THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 15 KTS THRU
WED. AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE LATE WEEK WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S TO SW THU AND FRI WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
AOB 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE WATERS FRI THRU SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4FT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KILM 280239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT
TO UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.
THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS STABILIZATION
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ENDED...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT
EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 07Z MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A
BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL



000
FXUS62 KILM 280239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT
TO UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.
THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS STABILIZATION
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ENDED...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT
EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 07Z MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A
BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 280239
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT
TO UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.
THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS STABILIZATION
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ENDED...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT
EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 07Z MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A
BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL



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