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000
FXUS62 KMHX 021858
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT BUT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN
DISSIPATE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG
THE COAST...DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT THE AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. I KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT HAS CHANCE POPS
NORTH AND WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. VERY WARM AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE.
LATEST RUN OF GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW LOW LEVEL VORT ENERGY PASSIG
THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS COUPLED WITH A WARM MOIST AIRMASS
WILL HELP SET OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION. WENT WITH 30-40 POPS
THROUGHOUT. HEAT INDEX VALUES NOT QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION...EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
90S WITH A COUPLE OF 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A RATHER WEAK UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE HIGHER
POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE
BIT LESS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY VERY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD QPF SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY THEN MORE OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION PATTERN ON
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND RIDES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION.

FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUE...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. SCU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE MINIMAL...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND...THIS
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG/STRATUS AT BAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BRIEF MVFR FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...BASED ON
CONSISTENCY...SEEMS OAJ HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
GIVEN THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. NOT TO MENTION CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEF LOOKS BEST IN THIS AREA. SO HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE TAFS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SW. SCU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
BY MID-DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE KPGV TERMINAL LIKELY
TO SEE THE MOST IMPACT WITH LESS ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY DURING THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTH AND INCREASES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM MAINTAINING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MOST OF THE MARINE PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND OCCASIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
2 TO 3 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
N/NE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PER A CONSENSUS OF LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUN.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DO
NOT EXPECT WINDS TO EXCEED 15 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...LEP/CTC
MARINE...HSA/CTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 021858
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
258 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT BUT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN
DISSIPATE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG
THE COAST...DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT THE AREA DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. I KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT HAS CHANCE POPS
NORTH AND WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. VERY WARM AND MUGGY
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THETA-E RIDGE IN PLACE.
LATEST RUN OF GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW LOW LEVEL VORT ENERGY PASSIG
THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS COUPLED WITH A WARM MOIST AIRMASS
WILL HELP SET OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION. WENT WITH 30-40 POPS
THROUGHOUT. HEAT INDEX VALUES NOT QUITE AS HOT AS TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION...EXPECTING READINGS IN THE UPPER
90S WITH A COUPLE OF 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A RATHER WEAK UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE HIGHER
POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE
BIT LESS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY VERY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD QPF SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY THEN MORE OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION PATTERN ON
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND RIDES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION.

FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUE...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. SCU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE MINIMAL...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND...THIS
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG/STRATUS AT BAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BRIEF MVFR FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...BASED ON
CONSISTENCY...SEEMS OAJ HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
GIVEN THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. NOT TO MENTION CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEF LOOKS BEST IN THIS AREA. SO HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE TAFS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SW. SCU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
BY MID-DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE KPGV TERMINAL LIKELY
TO SEE THE MOST IMPACT WITH LESS ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY DURING THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTH AND INCREASES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM MAINTAINING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MOST OF THE MARINE PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND OCCASIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
2 TO 3 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
N/NE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PER A CONSENSUS OF LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUN.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DO
NOT EXPECT WINDS TO EXCEED 15 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...LEP/CTC
MARINE...HSA/CTC






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000
FXUS62 KRAH 021856
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST BASED ON UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

MID-UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S. WITH THE 850MB AND
700 MB ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE
POSITION OF THIS HIGH AND STRENGTH (322-323DM) SUPPORT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104
DEGREE RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED IN THE SANDHILLS.

IN ADDITION...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL YIELD MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD INITIATE/SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION PRETTY
MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TOWARD SUNSET AS A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...DRAGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE 9-10 DEGREE RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF A
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST. THE BIG STORY MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. DUE TO PROJECTED PARAMETERS ALOFT...A
STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTING
STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED WARM/HUMID WITH DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY HAVE
WASHED OUT BY THU MORNING... AND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INTRODUCE A MOIST CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NC. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM
MT/DAKOTAS/SCENTRAL CANADA EARLY THU ACROSS ONT/QUE BY FRI NIGHT...
PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MID MISS VALLEY. AS
THE FLAT RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/GULF STATES
HOWEVER... WE`LL STAY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (TEMPERED BY WARM MID LEVELS). PW
VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.7-1.9"... NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN
THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE INCOMING AIR MASS... AND SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE... DYING FRONTAL
ZONE... OR ANY OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY AROUND 10 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT-TUE: STILL EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM THE WARM/HUMID WEATHER
TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES... WHILE A STRONG SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING FROM
A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD CLOSE
ON ITS HEELS... CROSSING HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO JUST NW OF NC BY SUN... AND WELL INTO THE
STATE BY EARLY MON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THEIR COOL PARENT
HIGHS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/SRN QUEBEC MON/TUE... WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHING TO ERN NC AND ACROSS NWRN SC. THIS MODEL
AGREEMENT LEADS TO GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE
DENSE ENOUGH TO PUSH THIS COOLER AIR WELL INTO CENTRAL NC...
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL SAT/SUN (BUT
NOT AS WARM IN THE NORTH SUN DUE TO MORE CLOUDS) WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90... BUT THEN EXPECT TEMPS TO PLUNGE FOR MON/TUE
WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 10-20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING HIGHS
NEAR 80 TO LOWER 80S. REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES... WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SAT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT... BOTH ALONG THE PREFRONTAL PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SUN AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION MON... WE MAY SEE LINGERING CHANCES FOR
RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE MON INTO TUE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING PW VALUES SHOULD
MEAN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUE... AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE
AWAY FROM THE REGION FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE CAROLINAS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF
THE STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 25-40KTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS SAME FEATURE MAY POOL MOISTURE LONG
IT...CAUSING AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THIS ADVERSE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY WITH THE KRWI AND KFAY
TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE MORE PROMINENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY
OF THE KFAY TERMINAL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...A FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS


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000
FXUS62 KILM 021851
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A
STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID AND
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY RELATIVE TO THE LOWEST LAYERS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION
THAT HAS BEGUN TO FIRE OFF THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOPS SHOW THAT AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR INDICATING THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WELL
INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...BUT DRYER AIR ALOFT
HAS SO FAR LIMITED DEVELOPMENT.

AS IS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FADE
THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING INLAND INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
EXTENT OF COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE DUE
TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING.
THE FORCING IS FROM A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP
CLOSE TO THE AREA BUT LIKE MOST OF THE FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT WILL DISSIPATE ALMOST WITHIN SITE OF OUR CWA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. GUIDANCE ISN`T REALLY SHOWING MUCH FOR THURSDAY BUT
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
VORTICITY...THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO TREND DOWN VALUES WHILE
MAINTAINING SOME MENTION. THE BEAT GOES ON FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND STEAMY 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY BRINGS A CONTINUATION OF VAST MID LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGHINESS FROM CENTRAL AL TO
GA COAST MAY POOL SOME MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCE OVER SRN ZONES. OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER TO FIRE CONVECTION...AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE WASHED OUT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT WHILE RAIN CHANCES GO ON THE RISE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL VERY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WHILE KEEPING THE
WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED...MOST MOS POPS ALREADY UP INTO THE 50S
RANGE.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.


SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COURTESY OF
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. SPEEDS VARY FROM JUST UNDER TEN
KNOTS...MOSTLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN STABLE IN A 2-3 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK ON FRIDAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE
LACKING AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK TROUGH WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN ON
SUNDAY EVEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM BEING CAPPED AT 10KT TO THE
10 TO 15KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. IN THIS COAST-PARALLEL FLOW THERE
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN OVERALL WAVE HEIGHT. SUNDAY
LOOKS A LOT LIKE SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME VEERING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SRP








000
FXUS62 KRAH 021807
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST BASED ON UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

MID-UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S. WITH THE 850MB AND
700 MB ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE
POSITION OF THIS HIGH AND STRENGTH (322-323DM) SUPPORT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104
DEGREE RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED IN THE SANDHILLS.

IN ADDITION...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL YIELD MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD INITIATE/SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION PRETTY
MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TOWARD SUNSET AS A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...DRAGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE 9-10 DEGREE RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF A
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST. THE BIG STORY MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. DUE TO PROJECTED PARAMETERS ALOFT...A
STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTING
STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF
THE STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 25-40KTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS SAME FEATURE MAY POOL MOISTURE LONG
IT...CAUSING AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THIS ADVERSE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY WITH THE KRWI AND KFAY
TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE MORE PROMINENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY
OF THE KFAY TERMINAL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...A FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021807
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST BASED ON UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

MID-UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S. WITH THE 850MB AND
700 MB ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE
POSITION OF THIS HIGH AND STRENGTH (322-323DM) SUPPORT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104
DEGREE RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED IN THE SANDHILLS.

IN ADDITION...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL YIELD MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD INITIATE/SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION PRETTY
MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TOWARD SUNSET AS A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...DRAGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE 9-10 DEGREE RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF A
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST. THE BIG STORY MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. DUE TO PROJECTED PARAMETERS ALOFT...A
STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTING
STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF
THE STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 25-40KTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS SAME FEATURE MAY POOL MOISTURE LONG
IT...CAUSING AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THIS ADVERSE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY WITH THE KRWI AND KFAY
TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE MORE PROMINENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IN VICINITY
OF THE KFAY TERMINAL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...A FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NC.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021757
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
157 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...REMOVED MORNING POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL
TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUE... PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. SCU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE MINIMAL...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND...THIS
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG/STRATUS AT BAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BRIEF MVFR FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...BASED ON
CONSISTENCY...SEEMS OAJ HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS GIVEN THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. NOT TO MENTION CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEF LOOKS BEST IN THIS AREA. SO HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE TAFS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SW. SCU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
BY MID-DAY.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/HSA
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 021757
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
157 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...REMOVED MORNING POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL
TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUE... PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. SCU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW FLOW. ALTHOUGH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE MINIMAL...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND...THIS
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG/STRATUS AT BAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BRIEF MVFR FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...BASED ON
CONSISTENCY...SEEMS OAJ HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS GIVEN THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE. NOT TO MENTION CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEF LOOKS BEST IN THIS AREA. SO HAVE THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE TAFS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS STILL OUT OF THE SW. SCU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
BY MID-DAY.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/HSA
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK







000
FXUS62 KILM 021737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...CU FIELD HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SOON FOLLOW. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104. FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND
FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE. THIS
SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS THE
CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER
THE SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS
EARLY WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR
THE SEA AND 72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED
MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH
THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON
SO ITS IMPACT MAY BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING
ANY NOTEWORTHY MID LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL
HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER
5 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
DOES SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER
AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING DURING
THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST CANADA
WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA HIGH
IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING COLD
FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES HAVE
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS
POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT IS
INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FT PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS. WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND
PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY IN A MIX OF
SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND 10 KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MJC/REK/III





000
FXUS62 KILM 021737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...CU FIELD HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SOON FOLLOW. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104. FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND
FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE. THIS
SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS THE
CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER
THE SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS
EARLY WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR
THE SEA AND 72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED
MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH
THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON
SO ITS IMPACT MAY BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING
ANY NOTEWORTHY MID LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL
HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER
5 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
DOES SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER
AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING DURING
THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST CANADA
WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA HIGH
IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING COLD
FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES HAVE
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS
POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT IS
INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FT PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS. WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND
PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY IN A MIX OF
SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND 10 KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MJC/REK/III





000
FXUS62 KILM 021737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...CU FIELD HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SOON FOLLOW. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104. FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND
FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE. THIS
SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS THE
CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER
THE SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS
EARLY WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR
THE SEA AND 72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED
MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH
THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON
SO ITS IMPACT MAY BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING
ANY NOTEWORTHY MID LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL
HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER
5 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
DOES SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER
AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING DURING
THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST CANADA
WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA HIGH
IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING COLD
FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES HAVE
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS
POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT IS
INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FT PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS. WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND
PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY IN A MIX OF
SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND 10 KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MJC/REK/III





000
FXUS62 KILM 021737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...CU FIELD HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SOON FOLLOW. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104. FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND
FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE. THIS
SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS THE
CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER
THE SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS
EARLY WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR
THE SEA AND 72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED
MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY
LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH
THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON
SO ITS IMPACT MAY BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING
ANY NOTEWORTHY MID LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL
HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER
5 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
DOES SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER
AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING DURING
THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST CANADA
WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA HIGH
IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING COLD
FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES HAVE
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT THIS
POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT IS
INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT
THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FT PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS. WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND
PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY IN A MIX OF
SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT EVERY 4
SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND 10 KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MJC/REK/III





000
FXUS62 KILM 021700
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH CLOUD
BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT THE
COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP






000
FXUS62 KILM 021700
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH CLOUD
BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT THE
COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP






000
FXUS62 KILM 021700
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH CLOUD
BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT THE
COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP






000
FXUS62 KILM 021700
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH CLOUD
BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT THE
COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP






000
FXUS62 KRAH 021432
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST BASED ON UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

MID-UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S. WITH THE 850MB AND
700 MB ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE
POSITION OF THIS HIGH AND STRENGTH (322-323DM) SUPPORT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104
DEGREE RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED IN THE SANDHILLS.

IN ADDITION...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL YIELD MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD INITIATE/SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION PRETTY
MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TOWARD SUNSET AS A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...DRAGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE 9-10 DEGREE RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF A
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST. THE BIG STORY MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. DUE TO PROJECTED PARAMETERS ALOFT...A
STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTING
STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

STRATUS HAS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE KILM AREA TOWARD KCTZ...AND MAY
REACH KFAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY 14Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO THE
LIFR CEILINGS AT KFAY.  OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING MVFR VSBY...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AND VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE  EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AND
LOCALIZED IMPACTS WOULD ROUGHLY BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z FROM WEST TO
EAST.  LATER...AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLIPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021432
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST BASED ON UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

MID-UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S. WITH THE 850MB AND
700 MB ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE
POSITION OF THIS HIGH AND STRENGTH (322-323DM) SUPPORT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104
DEGREE RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED IN THE SANDHILLS.

IN ADDITION...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL YIELD MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD INITIATE/SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION PRETTY
MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TOWARD SUNSET AS A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...DRAGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE 9-10 DEGREE RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF A
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST. THE BIG STORY MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. DUE TO PROJECTED PARAMETERS ALOFT...A
STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTING
STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

STRATUS HAS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE KILM AREA TOWARD KCTZ...AND MAY
REACH KFAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY 14Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO THE
LIFR CEILINGS AT KFAY.  OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING MVFR VSBY...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AND VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE  EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AND
LOCALIZED IMPACTS WOULD ROUGHLY BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z FROM WEST TO
EAST.  LATER...AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLIPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021323
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
923 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...REMOVED MORNING POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL
TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...LCL AREA OF IFR STRATUS CIGS AND VSBYSS FROM VCTY
KOAJ AND KDPL TO JUST W OF KEWN WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. VFR EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCT ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT WITH SHRT WV MOVING
IN AND INCLUDED A VCSH AT KPGV. PERSISTENCE FCST LATE TONIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES AND IFR
VSBY/CIG AT KOAJ.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 021323
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
923 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...REMOVED MORNING POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL
TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...LCL AREA OF IFR STRATUS CIGS AND VSBYSS FROM VCTY
KOAJ AND KDPL TO JUST W OF KEWN WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. VFR EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCT ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT WITH SHRT WV MOVING
IN AND INCLUDED A VCSH AT KPGV. PERSISTENCE FCST LATE TONIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES AND IFR
VSBY/CIG AT KOAJ.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 021323
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
923 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...REMOVED MORNING POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL
TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...LCL AREA OF IFR STRATUS CIGS AND VSBYSS FROM VCTY
KOAJ AND KDPL TO JUST W OF KEWN WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. VFR EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCT ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT WITH SHRT WV MOVING
IN AND INCLUDED A VCSH AT KPGV. PERSISTENCE FCST LATE TONIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES AND IFR
VSBY/CIG AT KOAJ.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 021323
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
923 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...REMOVED MORNING POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS
PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL
TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...LCL AREA OF IFR STRATUS CIGS AND VSBYSS FROM VCTY
KOAJ AND KDPL TO JUST W OF KEWN WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. VFR EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCT ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT WITH SHRT WV MOVING
IN AND INCLUDED A VCSH AT KPGV. PERSISTENCE FCST LATE TONIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES AND IFR
VSBY/CIG AT KOAJ.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 021143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM TUE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER NEXT FEW HOURS TO REFLECT
CURRENT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR AREA OF STRATUS VCTY KOAJ-KDPL
TO JUST W OF KEWN. REST OF FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. WEAK SHRT WV WILL BE
MOVING OFF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS
THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...LCL AREA OF IFR STRATUS CIGS AND VSBYSS FROM VCTY
KOAJ AND KDPL TO JUST W OF KEWN WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. VFR EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCT ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT WITH SHRT WV MOVING
IN AND INCLUDED A VCSH AT KPGV. PERSISTENCE FCST LATE TONIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES AND IFR
VSBY/CIG AT KOAJ.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 021143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM TUE...ADJUSTED SKY COVER NEXT FEW HOURS TO REFLECT
CURRENT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR AREA OF STRATUS VCTY KOAJ-KDPL
TO JUST W OF KEWN. REST OF FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. WEAK SHRT WV WILL BE
MOVING OFF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS
THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...LCL AREA OF IFR STRATUS CIGS AND VSBYSS FROM VCTY
KOAJ AND KDPL TO JUST W OF KEWN WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. VFR EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCT ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT WITH SHRT WV MOVING
IN AND INCLUDED A VCSH AT KPGV. PERSISTENCE FCST LATE TONIGHT WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES AND IFR
VSBY/CIG AT KOAJ.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK







000
FXUS62 KRAH 021141
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

STRATUS HAS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE KILM AREA TOWARD KCTZ...AND MAY
REACH KFAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY 14Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO THE
LIFR CEILINGS AT KFAY.  OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING MVFR VSBY...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AND VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE  EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AND
LOCALIZED IMPACTS WOULD ROUGHLY BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z FROM WEST TO
EAST.  LATER...AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLIPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 021141
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

STRATUS HAS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE KILM AREA TOWARD KCTZ...AND MAY
REACH KFAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY 14Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO THE
LIFR CEILINGS AT KFAY.  OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING MVFR VSBY...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AND VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE  EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AND
LOCALIZED IMPACTS WOULD ROUGHLY BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z FROM WEST TO
EAST.  LATER...AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLIPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 021132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY SO THIS WILL
BE A PERSISTENCE TAF FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-18Z AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. GOOD
INSTABILITY SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...BUT DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST ISOLATED COVERAGE. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
16-18Z. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AT LEAST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY WORKS FAR ENOUGH INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL
INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE INLAND...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KFLO/KLBT UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
SW-W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING. CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 021132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY SO THIS WILL
BE A PERSISTENCE TAF FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-18Z AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. GOOD
INSTABILITY SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...BUT DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST ISOLATED COVERAGE. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
16-18Z. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AT LEAST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY WORKS FAR ENOUGH INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL
INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE INLAND...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KFLO/KLBT UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
SW-W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING. CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 021132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY SO THIS WILL
BE A PERSISTENCE TAF FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-18Z AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. GOOD
INSTABILITY SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...BUT DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST ISOLATED COVERAGE. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
16-18Z. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AT LEAST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY WORKS FAR ENOUGH INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL
INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE INLAND...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KFLO/KLBT UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
SW-W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING. CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 021132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SAND HILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY SO THIS WILL
BE A PERSISTENCE TAF FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-18Z AS THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. GOOD
INSTABILITY SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...BUT DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST ISOLATED COVERAGE. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
16-18Z. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AT LEAST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY WORKS FAR ENOUGH INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL
INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE INLAND...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KFLO/KLBT UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
SW-W WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING. CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR










000
FXUS62 KILM 021020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 021020
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT MIST HAS DEVELOPED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
BUT NOT OF DENSITY OR COVERAGE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR COMMUTERS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WILL
SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER A SHADE IN THE EARLY GOING UNDER NEAR FULL
MORNING SUNSHINE...TRANSITIONING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN AFTN AS
CU BUILDUPS BEGIN TO TOWER INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MANY OF OUR
BEACHES TODAY FOLLOWING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS A.M. DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW
ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY LAKES SW
TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC INTERIOR
ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE
SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5
FT TODAY IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES
1.5-2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR/8






000
FXUS62 KMHX 020838
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. WEAK SHRT WV WILL BE
MOVING OFF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS
THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUE...PERIOD OF MVFR VSYBS LIKELY ALL SITES
08Z-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT PRES GRAD IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER RESULTING IN SW
WINDS 6-8 KT WHICH WILL LIMIT IFR VSBY THREAT. KOAJ WILL BE EXCEPT
AS IT IS FARTHEST S AND WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THERE FOR A FEW
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK










000
FXUS62 KMHX 020838
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. WEAK SHRT WV WILL BE
MOVING OFF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS
THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUE...PERIOD OF MVFR VSYBS LIKELY ALL SITES
08Z-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT PRES GRAD IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER RESULTING IN SW
WINDS 6-8 KT WHICH WILL LIMIT IFR VSBY THREAT. KOAJ WILL BE EXCEPT
AS IT IS FARTHEST S AND WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THERE FOR A FEW
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK










000
FXUS62 KMHX 020838
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. WEAK SHRT WV WILL BE
MOVING OFF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS
THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUE...PERIOD OF MVFR VSYBS LIKELY ALL SITES
08Z-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT PRES GRAD IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER RESULTING IN SW
WINDS 6-8 KT WHICH WILL LIMIT IFR VSBY THREAT. KOAJ WILL BE EXCEPT
AS IT IS FARTHEST S AND WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THERE FOR A FEW
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK










000
FXUS62 KMHX 020838
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...PERSISTENCE FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO SFC AND UPR LVL PATTERN FROM MONDAY. WEAK SHRT WV WILL BE
MOVING OFF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. ISOLATED TSTMS PSBL INLAND AND NRN SECTIONS
THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE/THERMAL TROF INTERACTIONS.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOT TEMPS WITH INLAND SECTIONS AND NRN OBX SEEING
MAX TEMPS 92-96...AND 87-91 FOR SRN BEACHES AND OBX S OF OREGON
INLET. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MAINLY AROUND 100 DEGS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HI PEAK AROUND 105 FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS TO INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT TO 30% FOR NW HALF OF AREA. ANOTHER SHRT WV WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF UPR RIDGE WITH GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON SCT
CONVECTIVE THREAT WRN AND NRN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ISOLATED
THREAT REST OF AREA. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AS
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED FOLLOWED
BY THE  SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURS INTO FRI.
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED INTO THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI
INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS
THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUE...PERIOD OF MVFR VSYBS LIKELY ALL SITES
08Z-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT PRES GRAD IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER RESULTING IN SW
WINDS 6-8 KT WHICH WILL LIMIT IFR VSBY THREAT. KOAJ WILL BE EXCEPT
AS IT IS FARTHEST S AND WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THERE FOR A FEW
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUE...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15
KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUES...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW
AROUND 5 TO 10 KT..INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WED SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2
FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN INCREASE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK










000
FXUS62 KILM 020747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND  ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A
MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION
AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND
VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY
LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC
INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 020747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND  ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A
MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION
AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND
VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY
LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC
INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 020747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND  ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A
MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION
AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND
VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY
LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC
INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 020747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST NOTABLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ALLOW
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND  ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS WILL PROMPT A
MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL AID ACCELERATION
AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY THE EXPECTED LAND
VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN COUNTY
LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO THE SC
INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC ARE ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 347 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 020739
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER HOURS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST
NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS
WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL
AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY
THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS
BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN
COUNTY LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO
THE SC INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHES E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC IS ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8







000
FXUS62 KILM 020739
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SUBTLE DISTINCTIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER HOURS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MOST
NOTABLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
ALLOW STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE SANDHILLS
WILL PROMPT A MODERATE SOUTH WIND FLOW ONTO THE COAST. THIS WILL
AID ACCELERATION AN ALREADY ROBUST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POWERED BY
THE EXPECTED LAND VERSUS SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED...THIS
BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE BLADEN
COUNTY LAKES SW TO FAIR BLUFF TO MARION TO FLORENCE AND DEEP INTO
THE SC INTERIOR ZONES.

NO LACKING OF SB-CAPES AND VAPOR CONTENT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.75-1.85 INCHES PRESENTLY PER LATEST
SNAPSHOTS FROM SPACE. THE NAM-12 DEPICTION BOOSTS THESE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE GUIDED VERY SLOWLY TO THE E-SE.
THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE PCPN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS BENEATH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION. STORM
INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL LOCALS COULD SEE RAIN LATE...AS
THE CONVECTION IS PUSHES E-SE AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WANE PAST
THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING/LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY.

MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOT AS STINGING TODAY...BUT SUMMER
FEEL WILL STILL BE FULL-ON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 101-103 OVER THE
SC INTERIOR TO 97-101 OVER INLAND NC IS ANTICIPATED. MINS EARLY WED
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE SEA AND
72-76 OVER A GOOD SWATH OF OUR INLAND ZONES AS WED MORNING BREAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WED THEN DISSIPATE ON THU. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION...BUT BOTH THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON SO ITS IMPACT MAY
BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH. ALOFT A FLAT 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES...ELIMINATING ANY NOTEWORTHY MID
LEVEL FEATURES.

THE 5H RIDGE IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ON BOTH WED AND THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOWS...WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN IN THE EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DOES
SUGGEST A FLOODING THREAT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED WET MICRO BURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEA
BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS START TO DEVELOP. FRI THROUGH SUN WILL BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE WEEK WITH CHC DIURNAL POP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

ON MON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES REMAINS IN QUESTION. GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT
IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING MON WITH DRIER AND
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINED A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEPT THE FRONT STALLED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM MOST OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING
DURING THE PERIOD AND THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS ALSO DISPLAYING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE HIGH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALMOST 10 MB STRONGER BY MON. INHERITED FORECAST DOES
HAVE THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH MON AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
AT THIS POINT. LATE PERIOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH IT
IS INCREASING...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS AS A TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN HOLDS.
WINDS WILL BACK TO S AND PICK UP IN SPEED ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BOLSTERS. GUSTS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2.5-3.5 FT TODAY
IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1.5-2 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. TSTMS IF ANY WILL BE FAVORED MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
WATERS WED AND THU WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI AND SAT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KT IN THE MORNING TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/8






000
FXUS62 KRAH 020735
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020735
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020735
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020735
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020706
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020706
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 020607
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
207 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...REST
OF FCST ON TRACK. ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL MOVING E NEAR ALBEMARLE
SOUND WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT BLOSSOM
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
EARLY EVENING UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...AS AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUE...PERIOD OF MVFR VSYBS LIKELY ALL SITES
08Z-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT PRES GRAD IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER RESULTING IN SW
WINDS 6-8 KT WHICH WILL LIMIT IFR VSBY THREAT. KOAJ WILL BE EXCEPT
AS IT IS FARTHEST S AND WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THERE FOR A FEW
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM/CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...JBM/RSB
MARINE...BM/RSB/CQD/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 020607
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
207 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...REST
OF FCST ON TRACK. ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL MOVING E NEAR ALBEMARLE
SOUND WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT BLOSSOM
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
EARLY EVENING UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...AS AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUE...PERIOD OF MVFR VSYBS LIKELY ALL SITES
08Z-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT PRES GRAD IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER RESULTING IN SW
WINDS 6-8 KT WHICH WILL LIMIT IFR VSBY THREAT. KOAJ WILL BE EXCEPT
AS IT IS FARTHEST S AND WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THERE FOR A FEW
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM/CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...JBM/RSB
MARINE...BM/RSB/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 020547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



000
FXUS62 KILM 020543
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 020543
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 020543
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 020543
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8








000
FXUS62 KILM 020540
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE ARE MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 020540
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL IN THE ARE MID TO
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
MODEST NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST
INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE
SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8






000
FXUS62 KMHX 020433
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1235 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...REST
OF FCST ON TRACK. ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL MOVING E NEAR ALBEMARLE
SOUND WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT BLOSSOM
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
EARLY EVENING UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...AS AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SWLY FLOW. MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH
PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE SAME AIRMASS...WITH OAJ HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM/CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CQD/RSB
MARINE...BM/RSB/CQD/JBM






000
FXUS62 KRAH 020349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KILM 020242
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1042 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST
NOCTURNAL JET LATE TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST INHIBITED.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY
FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KFLO. GIVEN NEARLY
STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH STORM...HAVE KEPT WITH VCTS FOR KFLO TAF
ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXPECT VFR WITH WINDS AROUND ROUGHLY 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. WHILE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT IFR AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY MVFR GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE OF
WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE COAST...CHANCE IS LOWER BUT WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020224
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020224
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
EARLY EVENING UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOWS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...AS AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SWLY FLOW. MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH
PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE SAME AIRMASS...WITH OAJ HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM/CQD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CQD/RSB
MARINE...BM/RSB/CQD






000
FXUS62 KRAH 020013
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
813 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD



000
FXUS62 KRAH 020013
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
813 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KILM 012355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN SOME
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGETOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES AND ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF PENDER COUNTY.
THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THESE STORMS WHICH
COULD EXAGGERATE THE RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES. THE CONVECTION HAS
DRASTICALLY DWINDLED WITH SUNSET UPON US...WITH ONLY A SPRINKLING OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EVE
SHOWER AND THEN EXPECT NO RAINFALL DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE THICKEST THIS EVE BUT SHOULD VERY
SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST NOCTURNAL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE
LEAST INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO
DEVELOP BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KFLO. GIVEN NEARLY
STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH STORM...HAVE KEPT WITH VCTS FOR KFLO TAF
ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXPECT VFR WITH WINDS AROUND ROUGHLY 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. WHILE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT IFR AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY MVFR GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE OF
WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE COAST...CHANCE IS LOWER BUT WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL





000
FXUS62 KILM 012355
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN SOME
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGETOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES AND ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF PENDER COUNTY.
THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THESE STORMS WHICH
COULD EXAGGERATE THE RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES. THE CONVECTION HAS
DRASTICALLY DWINDLED WITH SUNSET UPON US...WITH ONLY A SPRINKLING OF
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EVE
SHOWER AND THEN EXPECT NO RAINFALL DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE THICKEST THIS EVE BUT SHOULD VERY
SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST NOCTURNAL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE
LEAST INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO
DEVELOP BELOW 500 FT.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SHOWERS OFFSHORE
MAY SKIRT THE COAST LATE AS A LANDBREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THE SW FLOW...THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE DAYBREAK
SHOULD BE HIGHEST AROUND BALD HEAD ISLAND.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...LOWER TO MID 70S
BUT CLOSER TO 80 DEG ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS
OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40
PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS
OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KFLO. GIVEN NEARLY
STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH STORM...HAVE KEPT WITH VCTS FOR KFLO TAF
ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXPECT VFR WITH WINDS AROUND ROUGHLY 5 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. WHILE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT IFR AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY MVFR GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE OF
WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE COAST...CHANCE IS LOWER BUT WOULD NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
DAYBREAK...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...MODEST NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD KEEP WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD VEER A FEW DEGREES AS THE LANDBREEZE
PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH
PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT
WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE
CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW
FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 012300
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
EARLY EVENING UPDATE. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISO POPS OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF HWY 17. OTHERWISE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SWLY FLOW. MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH
PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE SAME AIRMASS...WITH OAJ HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM/CQD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CQD/RSB
MARINE...BM/CQD/RSB







000
FXUS62 KMHX 012300
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
EARLY EVENING UPDATE. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF
ISO POPS OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF HWY 17. OTHERWISE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SWLY FLOW. MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH
PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE SAME AIRMASS...WITH OAJ HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH LATEST OBS
SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING 2 TO 4 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM/CQD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CQD/RSB
MARINE...BM/CQD/RSB






000
FXUS62 KMHX 012026
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
344 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 PM MON...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN ILM CWA. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LACK OF HEATING. OVERNIGHT...AN
APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY
DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF HWY 17.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW.
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BRINGING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
FOG/STRATUS WILL START TO MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
2 TO 4 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BM
MARINE...RSB/BM










000
FXUS62 KMHX 011944
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
344 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 PM MON...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN ILM CWA. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LACK OF HEATING. OVERNIGHT...AN
APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY
DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF HWY 17.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW.
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BRINGING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
FOG/STRATUS WILL START TO MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE TOMORROW WITH SEAS 2 TO 4.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BM
MARINE...RSB/BM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 011944
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
344 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 PM MON...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN ILM CWA. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LACK OF HEATING. OVERNIGHT...AN
APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY
DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF HWY 17.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW.
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BRINGING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
FOG/STRATUS WILL START TO MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE TOMORROW WITH SEAS 2 TO 4.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BM
MARINE...RSB/BM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 011903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KILM 011836
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
236 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY THE MASSIVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE FEATURE OF NOTE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE SEA
BREEZE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND LATER THE LAND BREEZE. CONVECTION
HAS YET TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE BACK OFFED POPS
SOMEWHAT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
PERIODS WITH THE LAND BREEZE AND ATLANTIC SHOWERS DEVELOPING. VERY
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND I HAVE OPTED FOR THE WARMER MET
NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A
STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRANSITS OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...BUT IF IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE
GREATER POPS THAN THE 40 PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK
FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS
FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WITH A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER
VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN
ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES
ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LAND BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTED MUCH OF THE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE STARTING LATER AND THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO
THE WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW-W AT 5KT AND S AT 10-15KT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE
FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE INLAND TERMINALS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
NOT INDICATE IN KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE
WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS AT KILM. AFTER 13Z VFR EXPECTED
TERMINAL WIDE WITH SW-W WINDS...BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON SHAPING UP TO 10-15 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-3 FEET WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER
GRADIENT AT NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS
WELL AS ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND
INCREASE IN S-SW FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 011836
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
236 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY THE MASSIVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE FEATURE OF NOTE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE SEA
BREEZE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND LATER THE LAND BREEZE. CONVECTION
HAS YET TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE BACK OFFED POPS
SOMEWHAT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
PERIODS WITH THE LAND BREEZE AND ATLANTIC SHOWERS DEVELOPING. VERY
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND I HAVE OPTED FOR THE WARMER MET
NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A
STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TRANSITS OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...BUT IF IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE
GREATER POPS THAN THE 40 PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK
FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT
MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS
FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WITH A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER
VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN
ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES
ON THURS.

BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY
REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS
FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA.

A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS
LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR
MONDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70
OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LAND BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTED MUCH OF THE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE STARTING LATER AND THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO
THE WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW-W AT 5KT AND S AT 10-15KT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE
TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE
FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE INLAND TERMINALS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL
NOT INDICATE IN KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE
WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS AT KILM. AFTER 13Z VFR EXPECTED
TERMINAL WIDE WITH SW-W WINDS...BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON SHAPING UP TO 10-15 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-3 FEET WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER
GRADIENT AT NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS
WELL AS ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH
INTO THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND
INCREASE IN S-SW FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

(FROM 315 AM MONDAY) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...
WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW
OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND
100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

(FROM 315 AM MONDAY) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...
WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW
OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND
100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 011731
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
131 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE MASSIVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE FEATURE OF NOTE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE SEA BREEZE...THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND LATER THE LAND BREEZE. CONVECTION HAS YET TO
FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE BACK OFFED POPS SOMEWHAT. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL PERIODS WITH THE
LAND BREEZE AND ATLANTIC SHOWERS DEVELOPING. VERY WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AND I HAVE OPTED FOR THE WARMER MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A LAND BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTED MUCH OF THE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE STARTING LATER AND THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO
THE WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW-W AT 5KT AND S AT 10-15KT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR INLAND DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE FOCUS OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE
IN KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS AT KILM. AFTER 13Z VFR EXPECTED TERMINAL
WIDE WITH SW-W WINDS...BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON SHAPING UP TO 10-15 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BE
2-3 FEET WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOST WATERS.


SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL
INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KRAH 011721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 011656
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1256 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM WX/POP
GRIDS. WITH THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND HRRR MODEL HAVE DECREASED
POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. SHOULD STILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECT TO BE IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL TAF SITES (EWN/OAJ).
MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINGING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT EWN. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL START TO MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE...BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MON...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. THE LATEST BUOY OBS
ARE SHOWING SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE PERSIST BERMUDA HIGH AND INLAND TROF
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCORDINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK/BM
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 011656
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1256 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM WX/POP
GRIDS. WITH THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND HRRR MODEL HAVE DECREASED
POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. SHOULD STILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECT TO BE IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S
TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL TAF SITES (EWN/OAJ).
MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINGING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT EWN. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL START TO MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE...BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM MON...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. THE LATEST BUOY OBS
ARE SHOWING SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE PERSIST BERMUDA HIGH AND INLAND TROF
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCORDINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK/BM
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM






000
FXUS62 KRAH 011420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KRWI...ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THE FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KFAY AFTER 18Z.  EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.  MODELS AGAIN POINT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...KFAY TO KRWI...AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...WS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KRWI...ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THE FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KFAY AFTER 18Z.  EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.  MODELS AGAIN POINT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...KFAY TO KRWI...AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...WS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 011419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD
SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY CAUSING A LITTLE
DIVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE BUT THE INLAND FLOW SHOULD GET GOING
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 011419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD
SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY CAUSING A LITTLE
DIVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE BUT THE INLAND FLOW SHOULD GET GOING
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 011419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD
SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY CAUSING A LITTLE
DIVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE BUT THE INLAND FLOW SHOULD GET GOING
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 011419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD
SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY CAUSING A LITTLE
DIVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE BUT THE INLAND FLOW SHOULD GET GOING
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KMHX 011340
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
940 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ITS APPROACHING LAND BUT CANNOT RULE A
BRIEF SHOWER. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BERMUDA
HIGH PRES SFC PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER AREA WITH INLAND THERMAL
TROFFING...WHILE A WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TOP OF UPR RIDGE.
ISOLATED PULSE TSTM COULD BE SVR WITH MODELS INDICATING LI
AVERAGING -6 INLAND THIS AFTN AND FCST SOUNDING SHOWING WINDEX
VALUES 55-60 KNOTS. MAX TEMPS A DEG OR 2 WARMER THAN ON
SUNDAY...91-94 INLAND AND 85-90 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...BRIEF IFR AT INLAD TAF SITES HAS LIFTED WITH JUST
MVFR VSBYS REMAINING AT KOAJ AND KISO. VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT ENOUGH FOR TSTM MENTION AT KPGV.
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY INLAND SITES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE
SHOWING SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNDER THE PERSIST BERMUDA HIGH AND INLAND TROF PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCORDINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 011340
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
940 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ITS APPROACHING LAND BUT CANNOT RULE A
BRIEF SHOWER. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BERMUDA
HIGH PRES SFC PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER AREA WITH INLAND THERMAL
TROFFING...WHILE A WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TOP OF UPR RIDGE.
ISOLATED PULSE TSTM COULD BE SVR WITH MODELS INDICATING LI
AVERAGING -6 INLAND THIS AFTN AND FCST SOUNDING SHOWING WINDEX
VALUES 55-60 KNOTS. MAX TEMPS A DEG OR 2 WARMER THAN ON
SUNDAY...91-94 INLAND AND 85-90 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...BRIEF IFR AT INLAD TAF SITES HAS LIFTED WITH JUST
MVFR VSBYS REMAINING AT KOAJ AND KISO. VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT ENOUGH FOR TSTM MENTION AT KPGV.
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY INLAND SITES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE
SHOWING SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNDER THE PERSIST BERMUDA HIGH AND INLAND TROF PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCORDINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 011340
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
940 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ITS APPROACHING LAND BUT CANNOT RULE A
BRIEF SHOWER. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BERMUDA
HIGH PRES SFC PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER AREA WITH INLAND THERMAL
TROFFING...WHILE A WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TOP OF UPR RIDGE.
ISOLATED PULSE TSTM COULD BE SVR WITH MODELS INDICATING LI
AVERAGING -6 INLAND THIS AFTN AND FCST SOUNDING SHOWING WINDEX
VALUES 55-60 KNOTS. MAX TEMPS A DEG OR 2 WARMER THAN ON
SUNDAY...91-94 INLAND AND 85-90 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...BRIEF IFR AT INLAD TAF SITES HAS LIFTED WITH JUST
MVFR VSBYS REMAINING AT KOAJ AND KISO. VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT ENOUGH FOR TSTM MENTION AT KPGV.
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY INLAND SITES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE
SHOWING SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNDER THE PERSIST BERMUDA HIGH AND INLAND TROF PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCORDINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 011340
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
940 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS ITS APPROACHING LAND BUT CANNOT RULE A
BRIEF SHOWER. OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BERMUDA
HIGH PRES SFC PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER AREA WITH INLAND THERMAL
TROFFING...WHILE A WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TOP OF UPR RIDGE.
ISOLATED PULSE TSTM COULD BE SVR WITH MODELS INDICATING LI
AVERAGING -6 INLAND THIS AFTN AND FCST SOUNDING SHOWING WINDEX
VALUES 55-60 KNOTS. MAX TEMPS A DEG OR 2 WARMER THAN ON
SUNDAY...91-94 INLAND AND 85-90 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...BRIEF IFR AT INLAD TAF SITES HAS LIFTED WITH JUST
MVFR VSBYS REMAINING AT KOAJ AND KISO. VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT ENOUGH FOR TSTM MENTION AT KPGV.
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY INLAND SITES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. THE LATEST BUOY OBS ARE
SHOWING SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNDER THE PERSIST BERMUDA HIGH AND INLAND TROF PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCORDINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM







000
FXUS62 KILM 011209
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
809 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS
IMMINENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS ARE EXCEEDED. AVAILABLE
VAPOR CONTENT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND STEERING WINDS WEAK...WHICH
DOES SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED LOCALS POTENTIALLY RACKING BIG
RAIN TOTALS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS RECEIVE NIL PCPN. THE PREVIOUS
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER AS AN
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N ROUGHLY...AND
EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK LEE-TROUGHING
ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








000
FXUS62 KILM 011209
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
809 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS
IMMINENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS ARE EXCEEDED. AVAILABLE
VAPOR CONTENT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND STEERING WINDS WEAK...WHICH
DOES SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED LOCALS POTENTIALLY RACKING BIG
RAIN TOTALS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS RECEIVE NIL PCPN. THE PREVIOUS
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER AS AN
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N ROUGHLY...AND
EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK LEE-TROUGHING
ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE OF KILM AND
SHIFTING EAST. STRATUS/FG NEAR KLBT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING.

TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AT KLBT. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS 13-18Z ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS INLAND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW 5-10KT AND S 10-20 KT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO
FAR DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SINCE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AT KILM...WILL INDICATE
VCTS/TEMPO TSRA 16-19Z. SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
PERIOD. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE VCTS IN
KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM.

THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT
SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KMHX 011140
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS THIS MORNING FOR CARTERET
CO WITH SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS JUST OFF BOGUE BANKS MOVING NE.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES LAND BUT CANNOT RULE
BRIEF SHOWER. NO OTHER CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTN TSTMS INLAND. TYPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH PRES SFC PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER AREA WITH INLAND
THERMAL TROFFING...WHILE A WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TOP OF UPR
RIDGE. ISOLATED PULSE TSTM COULD BE SVR WITH MODELS INDICATING LI
NEAR -9 INLAND THIS AFTN AND FCST SOUNDING SHOWING WINDEX VALUSE
55-60 KNOTS. MAX TEMPS A DEG OR 2 WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY...91-94
INLAND AND 85-90 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...BRIEF IFR AT INLAD TAF SITES HAS LIFTED WITH JUST
MVFR VSBYS REMAINING AT KOAJ AND KISO. VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT ENOUGH FOR TSTM MENTION AT KPGV.
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY INLAND SITES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREV DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM MON...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTER WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 011140
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLGT CHC POPS THIS MORNING FOR CARTERET
CO WITH SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS JUST OFF BOGUE BANKS MOVING NE.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES LAND BUT CANNOT RULE
BRIEF SHOWER. NO OTHER CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTN TSTMS INLAND. TYPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH PRES SFC PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER AREA WITH INLAND
THERMAL TROFFING...WHILE A WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TOP OF UPR
RIDGE. ISOLATED PULSE TSTM COULD BE SVR WITH MODELS INDICATING LI
NEAR -9 INLAND THIS AFTN AND FCST SOUNDING SHOWING WINDEX VALUSE
55-60 KNOTS. MAX TEMPS A DEG OR 2 WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY...91-94
INLAND AND 85-90 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...BRIEF IFR AT INLAD TAF SITES HAS LIFTED WITH JUST
MVFR VSBYS REMAINING AT KOAJ AND KISO. VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT ENOUGH FOR TSTM MENTION AT KPGV.
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY INLAND SITES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREV DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM MON...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTER WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK






000
FXUS62 KRAH 011102
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100F. A WEAK WAVE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE SEABREEZE
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KRWI...ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THE FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KFAY AFTER 18Z.  EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.  MODELS AGAIN POINT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...KFAY TO KRWI...AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 011102
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100F. A WEAK WAVE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE SEABREEZE
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KRWI...ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THE FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KFAY AFTER 18Z.  EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.  MODELS AGAIN POINT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...KFAY TO KRWI...AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KILM 010955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS
IMMINENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS ARE EXCEEDED. AVAILABLE
VAPOR CONTENT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND STEERING WINDS WEAK...WHICH
DOES SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED LOCALS POTENTIALLY RACKING BIG
RAIN TOTALS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS RECEIVE NIL PCPN. THE PREVIOUS
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER AS AN
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N ROUGHLY...AND
EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK LEE-TROUGHING
ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO
IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY
THAN LAST NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND
TERMS. ALONG THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT
CLOUDS MAY CLIP THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH
FOR THE COASTAL TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDDAY AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE
ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8/ROSS






000
FXUS62 KILM 010955
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS
IMMINENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS ARE EXCEEDED. AVAILABLE
VAPOR CONTENT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND STEERING WINDS WEAK...WHICH
DOES SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED LOCALS POTENTIALLY RACKING BIG
RAIN TOTALS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS RECEIVE NIL PCPN. THE PREVIOUS
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER AS AN
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N ROUGHLY...AND
EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK LEE-TROUGHING
ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE MID
AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO
IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY
THAN LAST NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND
TERMS. ALONG THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT
CLOUDS MAY CLIP THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH
FOR THE COASTAL TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
AFTER MIDDAY AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE
ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...REPORTING STATIONS AND BUOY PLATFORMS SHOW 3
FT SEAS AND SW 15 KT WINDS AT DAYBREAK. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL ENHANCED GUSTS
CHOP UP THE AFTERNOON WATERS AND ADD ANOTHER LAYER OF BUMPINESS.
NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER WILL BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH NO JOY RIDE SW
15G20KT AND AT TIME 4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH BOATING TRAFFIC IS CERTAIN
TODAY AND AN EXTRA ALERTNESS TO SAFETY CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE
WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW
TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA
BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS.
SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE
PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8/ROSS







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010851
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
450 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTN TSTMS INLAND. TYPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH PRES SFC PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER AREA WITH INLAND
THERMAL TROFFING...WHILE A WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TOP OF UPR
RIDGE. ISOLATED PULSE TSTM COULD BE SVR WITH MODELS INDICATING LI
NEAR -9 INLAND THIS AFTN AND FCST SOUNDING SHOWING WINDEX VALUSE
55-60 KNOTS. MAX TEMPS A DEG OR 2 WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY...91-94
INLAND AND 85-90 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MON...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN MOIST LOW LVLS AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR STRATUS AT INLAND SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY WITH HEATING. SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS TOP
OF RIDGE WILL PRODUCE SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KPGV THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTER WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010851
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
450 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTN TSTMS INLAND. TYPICAL
BERMUDA HIGH PRES SFC PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER AREA WITH INLAND
THERMAL TROFFING...WHILE A WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TOP OF UPR
RIDGE. ISOLATED PULSE TSTM COULD BE SVR WITH MODELS INDICATING LI
NEAR -9 INLAND THIS AFTN AND FCST SOUNDING SHOWING WINDEX VALUSE
55-60 KNOTS. MAX TEMPS A DEG OR 2 WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY...91-94
INLAND AND 85-90 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WEAK SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS SUPPORTS ISOLD TSTM
THREAT ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OF PAST FEW NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 70S
INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ATTENDANT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION SUN BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND WED WHEN LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MON...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN MOIST LOW LVLS AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR STRATUS AT INLAND SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY WITH HEATING. SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS TOP
OF RIDGE WILL PRODUCE SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KPGV THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...CYCLICAL SW WINDS WITH BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTER WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

WW3 INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SEAS MAINLY AROUND 3 FT...AND ADJUSTED
FCST ACCODINGLY. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT DURING
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE PIEDMONT
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WED THROUGH THURS
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED
BUT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/SK








000
FXUS62 KILM 010752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY
OF SEPTEMBER AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N
ROUGHLY...AND EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK
LEE-TROUGHING ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE
MID AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO
20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT
IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE
TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS
AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS. SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF
VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/8





000
FXUS62 KILM 010752
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY
OF SEPTEMBER AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N
ROUGHLY...AND EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK
LEE-TROUGHING ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE
MID AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL
A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW
IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE
HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION
WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR.
LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY.

A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF
THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF
ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML
CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID
LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK
OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN.
FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL
ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE
SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO
20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT
IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT
EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE
TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS
AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS. SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF
VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE PLYING THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO
3 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT
OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/8






000
FXUS62 KRAH 010721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100F. A WEAK WAVE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE SEABREEZE
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100F. A WEAK WAVE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE SEABREEZE
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010707
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100 DEGREES. A WEAK
WAVE OVER WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING
THE SEABREEZE AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500
J/KG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010707
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100 DEGREES. A WEAK
WAVE OVER WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING
THE SEABREEZE AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500
J/KG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010651
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 010651
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010609
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
209 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MAY AGAIN SEE A SHOWER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THOUGH BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MON...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN MOIST LOW LVLS AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR STRATUS AT INLAND SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY WITH HEATING. SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS TOP
OF RIDGE WILL PRODUCE SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KPGV THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...CURRENT OBS INDICATE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. BERMUDA HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM/JBM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL/BM
MARINE...CGG/TL/BM/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 010609
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
209 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MAY AGAIN SEE A SHOWER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THOUGH BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MON...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN MOIST LOW LVLS AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR STRATUS AT INLAND SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY WITH HEATING. SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS TOP
OF RIDGE WILL PRODUCE SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KPGV THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...CURRENT OBS INDICATE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. BERMUDA HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM/JBM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL/BM
MARINE...CGG/TL/BM/JBM









000
FXUS62 KILM 010536
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SUMMERTIME HEAT
MUCH OF THIS FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL EDGE
INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK...BRINGING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF STORMS.
A STRONG WAVE OF HEAT MAY EXPAND INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER GULF STATES EXPANDS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVED INTO PORTIONS
OF DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES AND THEN DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES LATE THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NO LONGER PUSHING EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE ON MONDAY.

THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS MAINLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO WARM AND THIN LATE THIS EVE. MAINLY THIN
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START TO SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE CONVECTION AT LEAST SKIRT THE COAST. MORE
INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SCT TO PERHAPS BKN STRATUS LATE.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WARM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE FLOW HAS BACKED A
LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO CAROLINA BEACH AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
CONVECTION MAY MOVE WITHIN 20 NM LATE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPE
FEAR COAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8






000
FXUS62 KILM 010536
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SUMMERTIME HEAT
MUCH OF THIS FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL EDGE
INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK...BRINGING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF STORMS.
A STRONG WAVE OF HEAT MAY EXPAND INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER GULF STATES EXPANDS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVED INTO PORTIONS
OF DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES AND THEN DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES LATE THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NO LONGER PUSHING EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE ON MONDAY.

THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS MAINLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO WARM AND THIN LATE THIS EVE. MAINLY THIN
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START TO SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE CONVECTION AT LEAST SKIRT THE COAST. MORE
INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SCT TO PERHAPS BKN STRATUS LATE.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WARM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE FLOW HAS BACKED A
LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO CAROLINA BEACH AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR
CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG
THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP
THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
CONVECTION MAY MOVE WITHIN 20 NM LATE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPE
FEAR COAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8







000
FXUS62 KRAH 010532
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010532
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/BLS



000
FXUS62 KMHX 010431
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MAY AGAIN SEE A SHOWER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THOUGH BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VAS OF 745 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...BRINGING
TEMPO OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU FIELD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
BY AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL ATTM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...CURRENT OBS INDICATE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. BERMUDA HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM/JBM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL/BM
MARINE...CGG/TL/BM/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010431
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MAY AGAIN SEE A SHOWER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THOUGH BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VAS OF 745 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...BRINGING
TEMPO OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU FIELD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
BY AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL ATTM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...CURRENT OBS INDICATE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. BERMUDA HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM/JBM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL/BM
MARINE...CGG/TL/BM/JBM







000
FXUS62 KRAH 010226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM SUNDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND S TO SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. REMAINING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY AT KRDU AND MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON... CHANCES ARE
LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM SUNDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND S TO SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. REMAINING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY AT KRDU AND MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON... CHANCES ARE
LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM SUNDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND S TO SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. REMAINING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY AT KRDU AND MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON... CHANCES ARE
LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM SUNDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND S TO SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. REMAINING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY AT KRDU AND MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON... CHANCES ARE
LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MAY AGAIN SEE A SHOWER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THOUGH BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VAS OF 745 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...BRINGING
TEMPO OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU FIELD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
BY AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL ATTM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...CURRENT OBS INDICATE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. BERMUDA HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL/BM
MARINE...CGG/TL/BM











000
FXUS62 KILM 010225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVED INTO PORTIONS
OF DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES AND THEN DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES LATE THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NO LONGER PUSHING EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE UPSTREAM
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ACTIVE ON MONDAY.

THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS MAINLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO WARM AND THIN LATE THIS EVE. MAINLY THIN
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START TO SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE CONVECTION AT LEAST SKIRT THE COAST. MORE
INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SCT TO PERHAPS BKN STRATUS LATE.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WARM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE FLOW HAS BACKED A
LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO CAROLINA BEACH AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE CONVECTION
MAY MOVE WITHIN 20 NM LATE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR









000
FXUS62 KILM 010225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVED INTO PORTIONS
OF DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES AND THEN DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO THE WEST
OF FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES LATE THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NO LONGER PUSHING EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE UPSTREAM
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ACTIVE ON MONDAY.

THE THICKER CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS MAINLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO WARM AND THIN LATE THIS EVE. MAINLY THIN
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START TO SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE CONVECTION AT LEAST SKIRT THE COAST. MORE
INLAND AREAS MAY SEE SCT TO PERHAPS BKN STRATUS LATE.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED WARM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE FLOW HAS BACKED A
LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO CAROLINA BEACH AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE CONVECTION
MAY MOVE WITHIN 20 NM LATE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KRAH 010001
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
801 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE US TODAY.
CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VORTICITY SHEAR AXIS ALOFT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AND INLAND
PUSH OF SEABREEZE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON...HELD IN CHECK BY THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO HAVE FORECAST DRY AFTER 04 TO 05Z. MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM SUNDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND S TO SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. REMAINING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY AT KRDU AND MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON... CHANCES ARE
LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL




000
FXUS62 KILM 312350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE WESTERNMOST
COMMUNITIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
IN THE HARTSVILLE TO TIMMONSVILLE AREA PRIOR TO 9 PM. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS
LUMBERTON TO MARION TO CADES BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE AFTER
10 PM.

A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED
WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE
FLOW HAS BACKED A LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE
SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO
CAROLINA BEACH AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 312350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE WESTERNMOST
COMMUNITIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
IN THE HARTSVILLE TO TIMMONSVILLE AREA PRIOR TO 9 PM. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS
LUMBERTON TO MARION TO CADES BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE AFTER
10 PM.

A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED
WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE
FLOW HAS BACKED A LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE
SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO
CAROLINA BEACH AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 312350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE WESTERNMOST
COMMUNITIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
IN THE HARTSVILLE TO TIMMONSVILLE AREA PRIOR TO 9 PM. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS
LUMBERTON TO MARION TO CADES BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE AFTER
10 PM.

A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED
WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE
FLOW HAS BACKED A LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE
SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO
CAROLINA BEACH AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KILM 312350
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
MOST UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
DECAYING FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERHAPS
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE WESTERNMOST
COMMUNITIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
IN THE HARTSVILLE TO TIMMONSVILLE AREA PRIOR TO 9 PM. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS
LUMBERTON TO MARION TO CADES BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ERODE AFTER
10 PM.

A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC FAVORED
WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC MAY SKIRT THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. THE
FLOW HAS BACKED A LITTLE TO THE SW AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE FURTHER
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP THE
SHOWERS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE...PERHAPS CLIPPING THE SOUTHPORT TO
CAROLINA BEACH AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THIS SAME JETTING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM REMAINING FULLY DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WITH AT
LEAST A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...WOULD EXPECT
MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AT THE BEACHES...WHERE THE
BREEZE MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL FORECAST LOWS AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NOCTURNAL JET AND A
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS
IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING
EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC
PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15
KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3
FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND
SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO
POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR







000
FXUS62 KMHX 312345
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
745 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. DIURNAL
CU FIELD HAS WORKED ITS WAY INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING...AND HAVE
THEREFORE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. MAY AGAIN SEE A SHOWER
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...THOUGH BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VAS OF 745 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...BRINGING
TEMPO OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU FIELD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
BY AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL ATTM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON...10 TO 20 KNOTS
AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-4
FT.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL/BM
MARINE...CGG/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 312345
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
745 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. DIURNAL
CU FIELD HAS WORKED ITS WAY INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING...AND HAVE
THEREFORE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT. MAY AGAIN SEE A SHOWER
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...THOUGH BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VAS OF 745 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...BRINGING
TEMPO OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL MIX OUT
BY MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CU FIELD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
BY AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL ATTM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON...10 TO 20 KNOTS
AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-4
FT.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL/BM
MARINE...CGG/BM








000
FXUS62 KILM 312323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 312323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 312323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KILM 312323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCT CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS TO KFLO/KLBT ATTM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STILL STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
S-SW AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT 1-3KFT CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE
COASTAL TERMS AGAIN EARLY MON WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS FOR THESE
SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL SITES FOLLOWING MIDDAY SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS DOES NOT WARRANT A TAF MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR










000
FXUS62 KMHX 312039
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. ANY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING.
MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS ALONG THE COAST
IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING...WILL NOT
MENTION IT IN TAFS. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINGING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AS THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON...10 TO 20 KNOTS
AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-4
FT.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/BM









000
FXUS62 KMHX 312039
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. ANY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING.
MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS ALONG THE COAST
IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING...WILL NOT
MENTION IT IN TAFS. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINGING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AS THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON...10 TO 20 KNOTS
AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-4
FT.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/BM










000
FXUS62 KILM 312000
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
KFLO/KLBT OF CIGS 3-4K. THE BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALBEIT
ISOLATED...THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TO 5 TO 10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT SW LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY
08Z. VFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z WITH S WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND SW-W WINDS AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/MRR







000
FXUS62 KILM 312000
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP
A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS
THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE
MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY.

CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S.
WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL
HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO
OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS
ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE
COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT
CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2
DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD
OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE
WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP
WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA
BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON.

FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX
TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR
SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
KFLO/KLBT OF CIGS 3-4K. THE BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALBEIT
ISOLATED...THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TO 5 TO 10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT SW LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY
08Z. VFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z WITH S WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND SW-W WINDS AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT
SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING
WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A
RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10
SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE
WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP
IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/MRR








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