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000
FXUS62 KILM 021040
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE MORNING UPDATES. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGRATING INTO THE
AREA WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING A BIT LATER
TODAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AS PLENTIFUL
COLUMN MOISTURE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT LEE-SIDE TROUGH TEAM UP. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH UPSTREAM OF HERE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TRAVELING OUR WAY GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW IN PLACE.
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY...WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE LATER TODAY. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BRING
MAXIMUMS INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S TODAY INLAND...UPPER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN
SCATTERED TO LIKELY POP VALUES INTO TUESDAY WITH MILD MINIMUMS OF
65-70 AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL END UP AS THE WETTEST
DAY IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
RAIN AMOUNT TOTALS TODAY AND TUESDAY 1-2 INCHES BUT CERTAINLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY WILL BE SEEN DUE TO THE HIT AMD MISS NATURE
OF ROBUST CONVECTION...OR CELL TRAINING. MID-LEVEL DRYING TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTION AND A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN WAKE OF A
FRONT. THE W WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPS TUE AND WED TO BE
SIMILAR...OR A JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER WED. WITH GOOD LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE TUE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING A FOCUS...A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TUE. COOLING WILL BRING
LOWS LATE WED INTO THU IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT AND
THE RIDGE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN SOMEWHAT. BY THE
WEEKEND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WEAKENS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE LATEST
MEX NUMBERS SOAR INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS...AS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. I DID INCREASE
THE VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND A BIT TO REPRESENT THE LATEST NUMBERS
STILL REMAINING SOMEWHAT BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. INITIALLY VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND OVC300. POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MARGINAL MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SUSTAINING A
BUMPY 3-4 FT ACROSS THE NE SC AND SE NC 0-20 NM WATERS. TSTMS MAY
POSE A THREAT LATER TODAY AS STEERING WINDS GUIDE STORMS TOWARD
THE COAST. STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS...SEA
HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. THE
BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SSW WAVES OF 3 FT
EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...CO-MINGLED ON TOP OF A 1-2 FOOT E-SE WAVE
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 40-50 KT GUSTS AND MARINERS OUGHT TO CONSIDER A RADAR
UPDATE BEFORE VENTURING TO SEA.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...DESPITE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE HOWEVER MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TUE OR TUE
NIGHT FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSTMS WILL POSE A THREAT TO MARINERS AND RADAR UPDATES ARE
SUGGESTED...AS SOME STORMS MAY REQUIRE WARNINGS. THE BRUNT OF WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE TIED TO LOCAL WINDS AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT STEEP
WAVE-FACES RUNNING IN 5-6 SECOND INTERVALS. CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. WED THE
FLOW WILL EASE AND BECOME W BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. TSTMS WILL
BE LESS IN NUMBER WED COMPARED TO TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...EXPECT SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15-20 KNOTS BY DAYS END. BY FRIDAY
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS WILL THE WIND SPEEDS TO
10-15 KNOTS. GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL CRAFT SEAS FOR THURSDAY AS IT WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. FOR
NOW MAINTAINED A 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF FIVE
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR



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000
FXUS62 KRAH 020832
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
432 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH AN
APPALACHIAN LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
WEST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS TODAY. A PRECEDING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA (MODULATED BY EARLIER STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
OVER THE VIRGINIAS) WILL RETREAT QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS VA OWING TO
THE WARMTH JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER...WHICH WILL BE REALIZED
QUICKLY AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND DIABATIC HEATING/ MIXING OCCURS.

ASIDE FROM THE LEE TROUGH...A COUPLE OF OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THE
LATTER OF WHICH MAY SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE AND/OR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE THROUGH MIDDAY...AS AN UPSTREAM MCV OVER GA
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY
INITIALLY OTHERWISE INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM THROUGH THE 70S...TO PROBABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WILL YIELD A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON.
LIKE SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THE MAIN BELT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-
UPPER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC TODAY...SO ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND/OR MCV/S FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
ENCOURAGE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY
SCATTERED...MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

TONIGHT: A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STRETCHING
FROM OK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO
FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT --IN THE
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET-- WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...THEN PIVOT EAST
ACROSS VA/NC TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUPPORT
THE MAINTENANCE AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AND OVERLAP IN SPACE AND TIME WITH
STRENGTHENING UVV/S AND MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DAMAGING WIND WILL POSE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS THAT REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS...WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75". HUMID OTHERWISE...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW DROPPING SLOWLY OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND CAROLINAS.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ADVERTISED THIS UPPER
LOW AS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND
1340M BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THURS/FRI.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
PERIODIC DCVA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AND MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NC.  TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020804
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...

ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW DROPPING SLOWLY OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND CAROLINAS.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ADVERTISED THIS UPPER
LOW AS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND
1340M BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THURS/FRI.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
PERIODIC DCVA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AND MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NC.  TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26



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000
FXUS62 KMHX 020734
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
OH/IN WITH ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
VA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA
OF PRECIP OVER S CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO-MODELS
SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE TREND OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWS CONVECTION
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL
TOUGH TO TIME THE CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHEAR BEING THE
LIMITING FACTOR. SB CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG, LI`S
-4 TO -8C AND 0-6KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25KT. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE N/W TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKS THROUGH VA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE A LULL IN
COVERAGE...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AIDED BY APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TSTM MENTION WITH INCREASE SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS
WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -4 TO -7
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. THE SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DO
NOT TYPICALLY HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WELL WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER ALOT OF THE REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 AM MON...CHALLENGING FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE...AS SITES ALREADY
BOUNCING BETWEEN LIFR AND VFR. WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-12Z THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF LOW CEILINGS. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z AS SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 12-13Z THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SSW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS
2-5FT. WITH FRONT NORTH/WEST OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXPECT SSW WINDS 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BEACHES DURING
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE...WHICH COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS TO
6FT NEAR 41025. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS WITH STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. SWLY
WINDS INCREASE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6FT. INITIATED
SCA BEGINNING TONIGHT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020718
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...

ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020718
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...

ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KILM 020710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY AS PLENTIFUL COLUMN MOISTURE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT LEE-SIDE TROUGH
TEAM UP. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH UPSTREAM OF
HERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRAVELING OUR WAY GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW
IN PLACE. TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS
WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY...WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
LATER TODAY. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE WARM
SECTOR SHOULD BRING MAXIMUMS INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S TODAY
INLAND...UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT
TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO LIKELY POP VALUES INTO TUESDAY
WITH MILD MINIMUMS OF 65-70 AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL END UP AS THE WETTEST
DAY IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
RAIN AMOUNT TOTALS TODAY AND TUESDAY 1-2 INCHES BUT CERTAINLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY WILL BE SEEN DUE TO THE HIT AMD MISS NATURE
OF ROBUST CONVECTION...OR CELL TRAINING. MID-LEVEL DRYING TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTION AND A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN WAKE OF A
FRONT. THE W WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPS TUE AND WED TO BE
SIMILAR...OR A JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER WED. WITH GOOD LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE TUE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING A FOCUS...A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TUE. COOLING WILL BRING
LOWS LATE WED INTO THU IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT AND
THE RIDGE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN SOMEWHAT. BY THE
WEEKEND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WEAKENS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE LATEST
MEX NUMBERS SOAR INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS...AS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. I DID INCREASE
THE VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND A BIT TO REPRESENT THE LATEST NUMBERS
STILL REMAINING SOMEWHAT BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. INITIALLY VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND OVC300. POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MARGINAL MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SUSTAINING A
BUMPY 3-4 FT ACROSS THE NE SC AND SE NC 0-20 NM WATERS. TSTMS MAY
POSE A THREAT LATER TODAY AS STEERING WINDS GUIDE STORMS TOWARD
THE COAST. STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS...SEA
HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. THE
BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SSW WAVES OF 3 FT
EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...CO-MINGLED ON TOP OF A 1-2 FOOT E-SE WAVE
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 40-50 KT GUSTS AND MARINERS OUGHT TO CONSIDER A RADAR
UPDATE BEFORE VENTURING TO SEA.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...DESPITE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE HOWEVER MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TUE OR TUE
NIGHT FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSTMS WILL POSE A THREAT TO MARINERS AND RADAR UPDATES ARE
SUGGESTED...AS SOME STORMS MAY REQUIRE WARNINGS. THE BRUNT OF WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE TIED TO LOCAL WINDS AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT STEEP
WAVE-FACES RUNNING IN 5-6 SECOND INTERVALS. CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. WED THE
FLOW WILL EASE AND BECOME W BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. TSTMS WILL
BE LESS IN NUMBER WED COMPARED TO TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...EXPECT SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15-20 KNOTS BY DAYS END. BY FRIDAY
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS WILL THE WIND SPEEDS TO
10-15 KNOTS. GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL CRAFT SEAS FOR THURSDAY AS IT WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. FOR
NOW MAINTAINED A 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF FIVE
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 020710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY AS PLENTIFUL COLUMN MOISTURE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT LEE-SIDE TROUGH
TEAM UP. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH UPSTREAM OF
HERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRAVELING OUR WAY GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW
IN PLACE. TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS
WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY...WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
LATER TODAY. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE WARM
SECTOR SHOULD BRING MAXIMUMS INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S TODAY
INLAND...UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT
TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO LIKELY POP VALUES INTO TUESDAY
WITH MILD MINIMUMS OF 65-70 AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL END UP AS THE WETTEST
DAY IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
RAIN AMOUNT TOTALS TODAY AND TUESDAY 1-2 INCHES BUT CERTAINLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY WILL BE SEEN DUE TO THE HIT AMD MISS NATURE
OF ROBUST CONVECTION...OR CELL TRAINING. MID-LEVEL DRYING TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTION AND A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN WAKE OF A
FRONT. THE W WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPS TUE AND WED TO BE
SIMILAR...OR A JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER WED. WITH GOOD LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE TUE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING A FOCUS...A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TUE. COOLING WILL BRING
LOWS LATE WED INTO THU IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT AND
THE RIDGE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN SOMEWHAT. BY THE
WEEKEND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WEAKENS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE LATEST
MEX NUMBERS SOAR INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS...AS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. I DID INCREASE
THE VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND A BIT TO REPRESENT THE LATEST NUMBERS
STILL REMAINING SOMEWHAT BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. INITIALLY VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND OVC300. POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MARGINAL MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SUSTAINING A
BUMPY 3-4 FT ACROSS THE NE SC AND SE NC 0-20 NM WATERS. TSTMS MAY
POSE A THREAT LATER TODAY AS STEERING WINDS GUIDE STORMS TOWARD
THE COAST. STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS...SEA
HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. THE
BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SSW WAVES OF 3 FT
EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...CO-MINGLED ON TOP OF A 1-2 FOOT E-SE WAVE
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 40-50 KT GUSTS AND MARINERS OUGHT TO CONSIDER A RADAR
UPDATE BEFORE VENTURING TO SEA.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...DESPITE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE HOWEVER MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TUE OR TUE
NIGHT FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSTMS WILL POSE A THREAT TO MARINERS AND RADAR UPDATES ARE
SUGGESTED...AS SOME STORMS MAY REQUIRE WARNINGS. THE BRUNT OF WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE TIED TO LOCAL WINDS AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT STEEP
WAVE-FACES RUNNING IN 5-6 SECOND INTERVALS. CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. WED THE
FLOW WILL EASE AND BECOME W BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. TSTMS WILL
BE LESS IN NUMBER WED COMPARED TO TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...EXPECT SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15-20 KNOTS BY DAYS END. BY FRIDAY
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS WILL THE WIND SPEEDS TO
10-15 KNOTS. GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL CRAFT SEAS FOR THURSDAY AS IT WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. FOR
NOW MAINTAINED A 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF FIVE
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/SGL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020455
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH UPSTREAM ACTIVITY
INDICATED...SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUNDING AND SUPPORTED BY LATEST
MESO MODELS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION...ONE OVER CENTRAL VA AND ANOTHER OVER S CENTRAL NC.
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD, BUT COULD
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 06-12Z. MILD
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW FLOW...LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUN...TOUGH TO TIME WHEN BEST CVRG OF PRECIP WILL
OCCUR AS WEAK SHORT WAVES QUICKLY CROSS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY KEPT PREV FCST OF HIGHER CHC POPS ALL AREAS ALL DAY.
IF GET BREAK IN PRECIP MORN/EARLY AFTN WILL SEE GOOD INSTAB
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 INLAND. MDLS FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPES
AOA 2000 INLAND AND ALTHOUGH SHEAR NOT VERY STRONG A STRONG TO
ISOLD SVR STORM COULD FORM IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTAB.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND DROPPING TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS THEN TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: 12Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WITH TIMING OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...WHICH IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS MONDAY NIGHT BUT
ONLY HAVE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SLOWER TIMING...THEN SPREAD LIKELY TO ALL AREAS TUESDAY
COINCIDENT TO BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LI`S FORECAST
AROUND -5 TO -7C WITH INCREASING SHEAR TO AROUND 40-50 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND WITH
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS TIME PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE DEGREE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z GFS KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY BUT MOST MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS. STRONG 50+ KT SHEAR PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND -6 TO -7 C/KM BUT INSTABILITY IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH LI`S ONLY AROUND -1 TO -2C AT BEST. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: AS EXPECTED...12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH SATURDAY ENHANCED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY
SUNDAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 AM MON...CHALLENGING FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE...AS SITES ALREADY
BOUNCING BETWEEN LIFR AND VFR. WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-12Z THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF LOW CEILINGS. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z AS SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 12-13Z THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SSW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE
IS SLIDING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT PRED VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-15KT...WITH GUSTS
TO 20KT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND SEAS 2-5FT. WITH FRONT
NORTH OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXPECT SSW WINDS THRU
THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 20 KTS. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BEACHES DURING AFTN AS SEA
BRZ SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP TO 6 FT POSSIBLE
AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF WAVEWATCH VERIFIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WEDNESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15
KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH
WINDS BECOMING NLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SW TO
NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/JBM/SK/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/SK/CQD




000
FXUS62 KILM 020454
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1254 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE ENE. THERE
WAS ALSO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OUR SW AND S.

WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION AND I-95 CORRIDOR AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE COAST TOWARD
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS...AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H
EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS
EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.

IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. INITIALLY VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND OVC300. POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MARGINAL MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATES.

S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/MJC




000
FXUS62 KILM 020243
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1043 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...KEEPING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENDING
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY WAS
MOVING TO THE ENE. THERE WAS ALSO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO OUR SW AND S.

WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION AND I-95 CORRIDOR AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE COAST TOWARD
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS...AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H
EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS
EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.

IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES.

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL
MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KT. ON
MONDAY...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY
CONVECTION. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 020243
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1043 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...KEEPING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENDING
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY WAS
MOVING TO THE ENE. THERE WAS ALSO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO OUR SW AND S.

WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION AND I-95 CORRIDOR AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE COAST TOWARD
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS...AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H
EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS
EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.

IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES.

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL
MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KT. ON
MONDAY...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY
CONVECTION. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020235
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1035 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
WITH UPSTREAM ACTIVITY INDICATED...SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUNDING AND
SUPPORTED BY LATEST MESO MODELS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSISSION/
AS OF 245 PM SUN...BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ARE TRYING TO PUSH TOWARD COAST THIS
AFTN. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS WITH VERY LITTLE EVER MAKING TO CENTRAL BEACHES. FOR
NOW WILL CONT HIGHER POPS INLAND TO SMALL POP CST NEXT CPL HRS.
ALL MDLS SHOW BREAK IN PRECIP THRU THE EVENING AND HAVE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN ESPCLY NRN TIER AND HAVE CHC POPS RETURNING. MILD
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW FLOW...LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUN...TOUGH TO TIME WHEN BEST CVRG OF PRECIP WILL
OCCUR AS WEAK SHORT WAVES QUICKLY CROSS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY KEPT PREV FCST OF HIGHER CHC POPS ALL AREAS ALL DAY.
IF GET BREAK IN PRECIP MORN/EARLY AFTN WILL SEE GOOD INSTAB
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 INLAND. MDLS FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPES
AOA 2000 INLAND AND ALTHOUGH SHEAR NOT VERY STRONG A STRONG TO
ISOLD SVR STORM COULD FORM IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTAB.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND DROPPING TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS THEN TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: 12Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WITH TIMING OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...WHICH IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS MONDAY NIGHT BUT
ONLY HAVE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SLOWER TIMING...THEN SPREAD LIKELY TO ALL AREAS TUESDAY
COINCIDENT TO BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LI`S FORECAST
AROUND -5 TO -7C WITH INCREASING SHEAR TO AROUND 40-50 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND WITH
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS TIME PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE DEGREE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z GFS KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY BUT MOST MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS. STRONG 50+ KT SHEAR PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND -6 TO -7 C/KM BUT INSTABILITY IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH LI`S ONLY AROUND -1 TO -2C AT BEST. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: AS EXPECTED...12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH SATURDAY ENHANCED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY
SUNDAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAYT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH
JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT FOR MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS.
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENT RESULTS IN NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INDICATE VCTS IN TAFS. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
20 KT AFTER MID MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE IS SLIDING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 245 PM SUN...WITH FRONT NORTH OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE EXPECT SSW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 20
KTS. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR
NEAR BEACHES DURING AFTN AS SEA BRZ SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT
AT 3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP TO 6 FT POSSIBLE
AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF WAVEWATCH VERIFIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WEDNESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15
KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH
WINDS BECOMING NLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SW TO
NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/JBM/SK
MARINE...RF/JBM/SK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020139
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY... AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...

ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST...AFFECTING THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR CIGS) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING MONDAY... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE
THEY OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM BOTH LOW STRATUS AND CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KILM 020014
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
814 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...KEEPING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENDING
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND
DOWN THROUGH WINYAH BAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 830 PM. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. WILL
INCLUDE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SHOW POPS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION...ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVE. THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM COULD STILL PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST AND
HAIL. AFTER 9 PM...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING.

DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ALABAMA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
THE LAST 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H
EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS
EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.

IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES.

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL
MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS. ON MONDAY...VFR
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KILM 020014
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
814 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...KEEPING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENDING
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND
DOWN THROUGH WINYAH BAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 830 PM. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. WILL
INCLUDE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SHOW POPS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION...ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVE. THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM COULD STILL PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST AND
HAIL. AFTER 9 PM...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING.

DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ALABAMA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
THE LAST 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H
EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS
EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.

IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES.

VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL
MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS. ON MONDAY...VFR
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 012352
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN EXITING MCV HAS SUPPRESSED ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WITHIN THE 21Z-
00Z TIME FRAME AS WEAK VORTICES ALOFT INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A SHEAR AXIS PROJECTED TO DROP SEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND CROSS VA OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST...AFFECTING THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR CIGS) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING MONDAY... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE
THEY OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM BOTH LOW STRATUS AND CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 012352
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN EXITING MCV HAS SUPPRESSED ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WITHIN THE 21Z-
00Z TIME FRAME AS WEAK VORTICES ALOFT INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A SHEAR AXIS PROJECTED TO DROP SEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND CROSS VA OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST...AFFECTING THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR CIGS) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING MONDAY... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE
THEY OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM BOTH LOW STRATUS AND CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 012352
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO DROP POPS ALL ZONES THROUGH 2 AM
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED IN MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED ALONG COAST...AND LATEST MESO MODELS KEEP
AREA DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCED ACTIVITY IS
MOVING OFF COAST...THUS EXPECT AREA TO REMAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE
REST OF EVENING. THICKER LOWER AND MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVER
AREA BUT THICKER HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM WEST...AND
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP WITH MOIST LOW LVLS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSISSION/
AS OF 245 PM SUN...BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ARE TRYING TO PUSH TOWARD COAST THIS
AFTN. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS WITH VERY LITTLE EVER MAKING TO CENTRAL BEACHES. FOR
NOW WILL CONT HIGHER POPS INLAND TO SMALL POP CST NEXT CPL HRS.
ALL MDLS SHOW BREAK IN PRECIP THRU THE EVENING AND HAVE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN ESPCLY NRN TIER AND HAVE CHC POPS RETURNING. MILD
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW FLOW...LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUN...TOUGH TO TIME WHEN BEST CVRG OF PRECIP WILL
OCCUR AS WEAK SHORT WAVES QUICKLY CROSS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY KEPT PREV FCST OF HIGHER CHC POPS ALL AREAS ALL DAY.
IF GET BREAK IN PRECIP MORN/EARLY AFTN WILL SEE GOOD INSTAB
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 INLAND. MDLS FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPES
AOA 2000 INLAND AND ALTHOUGH SHEAR NOT VERY STRONG A STRONG TO
ISOLD SVR STORM COULD FORM IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTAB.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND DROPPING TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS THEN TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: 12Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WITH TIMING OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...WHICH IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS MONDAY NIGHT BUT
ONLY HAVE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SLOWER TIMING...THEN SPREAD LIKELY TO ALL AREAS TUESDAY
COINCIDENT TO BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LI`S FORECAST
AROUND -5 TO -7C WITH INCREASING SHEAR TO AROUND 40-50 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND WITH
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS TIME PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE DEGREE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z GFS KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY BUT MOST MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS. STRONG 50+ KT SHEAR PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND -6 TO -7 C/KM BUT INSTABILITY IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH LI`S ONLY AROUND -1 TO -2C AT BEST. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: AS EXPECTED...12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH SATURDAY ENHANCED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY
SUNDAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAYT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH
JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT FOR MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS.
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENT RESULTS IN NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INDICATE VCTS IN TAFS. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
20 KT AFTER MID MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE IS SLIDING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...DROPPED POPS FOR REST OF EVENING...NO
CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 245 PM SUN...WITH FRONT NORTH OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE EXPECT SSW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 20
KTS. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR
NEAR BEACHES DURING AFTN AS SEA BRZ SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT
AT 3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP TO 6 FT POSSIBLE
AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF WAVEWATCH VERIFIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WEDNESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15
KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH
WINDS BECOMING NLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SW TO
NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/JBM/SK
MARINE...RF/JBM/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 012352
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO DROP POPS ALL ZONES THROUGH 2 AM
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED IN MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED ALONG COAST...AND LATEST MESO MODELS KEEP
AREA DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCED ACTIVITY IS
MOVING OFF COAST...THUS EXPECT AREA TO REMAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE
REST OF EVENING. THICKER LOWER AND MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVER
AREA BUT THICKER HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM WEST...AND
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP WITH MOIST LOW LVLS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSISSION/
AS OF 245 PM SUN...BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ARE TRYING TO PUSH TOWARD COAST THIS
AFTN. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS WITH VERY LITTLE EVER MAKING TO CENTRAL BEACHES. FOR
NOW WILL CONT HIGHER POPS INLAND TO SMALL POP CST NEXT CPL HRS.
ALL MDLS SHOW BREAK IN PRECIP THRU THE EVENING AND HAVE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN ESPCLY NRN TIER AND HAVE CHC POPS RETURNING. MILD
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW FLOW...LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUN...TOUGH TO TIME WHEN BEST CVRG OF PRECIP WILL
OCCUR AS WEAK SHORT WAVES QUICKLY CROSS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY KEPT PREV FCST OF HIGHER CHC POPS ALL AREAS ALL DAY.
IF GET BREAK IN PRECIP MORN/EARLY AFTN WILL SEE GOOD INSTAB
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 INLAND. MDLS FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPES
AOA 2000 INLAND AND ALTHOUGH SHEAR NOT VERY STRONG A STRONG TO
ISOLD SVR STORM COULD FORM IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTAB.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND DROPPING TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS THEN TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: 12Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WITH TIMING OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...WHICH IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS MONDAY NIGHT BUT
ONLY HAVE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SLOWER TIMING...THEN SPREAD LIKELY TO ALL AREAS TUESDAY
COINCIDENT TO BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LI`S FORECAST
AROUND -5 TO -7C WITH INCREASING SHEAR TO AROUND 40-50 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND WITH
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS TIME PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE DEGREE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z GFS KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY BUT MOST MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS. STRONG 50+ KT SHEAR PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND -6 TO -7 C/KM BUT INSTABILITY IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH LI`S ONLY AROUND -1 TO -2C AT BEST. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: AS EXPECTED...12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH SATURDAY ENHANCED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY
SUNDAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAYT/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH
JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT FOR MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS.
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENT RESULTS IN NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INDICATE VCTS IN TAFS. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
20 KT AFTER MID MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE IS SLIDING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...DROPPED POPS FOR REST OF EVENING...NO
CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 245 PM SUN...WITH FRONT NORTH OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE EXPECT SSW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 20
KTS. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR
NEAR BEACHES DURING AFTN AS SEA BRZ SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT
AT 3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP TO 6 FT POSSIBLE
AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF WAVEWATCH VERIFIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WEDNESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15
KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH
WINDS BECOMING NLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SW TO
NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/JBM/SK
MARINE...RF/JBM/SK




000
FXUS62 KILM 012325
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
725 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...KEEPING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENDING
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND
DOWN THROUGH WINYAH BAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 830 PM. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. WILL
INCLUDE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH 8 PM. WILL ALSO SHOW POPS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION...ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVE. THE
ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM COULD STILL PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST AND
HAIL. AFTER 9 PM...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING.

DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ALABAMA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
THE LAST 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H
EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS
EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.

IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INVOF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH S-SW
FLOW...WHILE THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SKEWED IN AREAS OF CONVECTION.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY SHRA/TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 012029
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
429 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUN...BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE ARE TRYING TO PUSH TOWARD COAST THIS AFTN. HIGH RES MODELS
SHOW ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH VERY
LITTLE EVER MAKING TO CENTRAL BEACHES. FOR NOW WILL CONT HIGHER
POPS INLAND TO SMALL POP CST NEXT CPL HRS. ALL MDLS SHOW BREAK IN
PRECIP THRU THE EVENING AND HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ESPCLY NRN TIER
AND HAVE CHC POPS RETURNING. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW
FLOW...LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUN...TOUGH TO TIME WHEN BEST CVRG OF PRECIP WILL
OCCUR AS WEAK SHORT WAVES QUICKLY CROSS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY KEPT PREV FCST OF HIGHER CHC POPS ALL AREAS ALL DAY.
IF GET BREAK IN PRECIP MORN/EARLY AFTN WILL SEE GOOD INSTAB
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 INLAND. MDLS FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPES
AOA 2000 INLAND AND ALTHOUGH SHEAR NOT VERY STRONG A STRONG TO
ISOLD SVR STORM COULD FORM IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTAB.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND DROPPING TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS THEN TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: 12Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WITH TIMING OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...WHICH IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO. CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS MONDAY NIGHT BUT
ONLY HAVE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SLOWER TIMING...THEN SPREAD LIKELY TO ALL AREAS TUESDAY
COINCIDENT TO BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LI`S FORECAST
AROUND -5 TO -7C WITH INCREASING SHEAR TO AROUND 40-50 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND WITH
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS TIME PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE DEGREE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
12Z GFS KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY BUT MOST MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS. STRONG 50+ KT SHEAR PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND -6 TO -7 C/KM BUT INSTABILITY IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH LI`S ONLY AROUND -1 TO -2C AT BEST. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: AS EXPECTED...12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL DROP FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH SATURDAY ENHANCED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY
SUNDAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...WITH AREA IN WARM SECTOR THINK VFR WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHEN CONVECTION
CROSSES AS EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR...BEST CHCS FOR THIS APPEAR TO
BE THRU MID AFTN TODAY THEN LATER TONIGHT INTO MON. ALSO COULD BE
SOME SUB VFR CIGS TWRD DAYBREAK AS LOWER LVLS BECOME SATURATED.
SSW WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE LATE MORN AND AFTN
HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE IS SLIDING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUN...WITH FRONT NORTH OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE EXPECT SSW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 20
KTS. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR
NEAR BEACHES DURING AFTN AS SEA BRZ SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT
AT 3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP TO 6 FT POSSIBLE
AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF WAVEWATCH VERIFIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WEDNESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15
KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH
WINDS BECOMING NLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SW TO
NW WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011935
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN EXITING MCV HAS SUPPRESSED ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WITHIN THE 21Z-
00Z TIME FRAME AS WEAK VORTICES ALOFT INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A SHEAR AXIS PROJECTED TO DROP SEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND CROSS VA OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES EITHER HIGH END MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
BY 21Z-22. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT
OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY 19Z. AFTER 20Z...COULD SEE RANDOM
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT THOUGH
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BEST PROSPECTS ARE IN VICINITY OF
THE TRIAD TERMINALS SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION AT THOSE
SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SKIRT
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND KRWI.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECT TO LIFT BY MID DAY. WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE...ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE BETWEEN 21Z-04Z. IN ADDITION...BLINDING
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 011916
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WARM FRONT IN PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ATTENDANT PRECIP IS A BIT MORE VIGOROUS AND
WIDESPREAD THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND THINK THAT GUIDANCE
UNDERESTIMATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF UPPER
SUPPORT. IN ANY CASE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS STILL
THINK THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MARGINAL BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE
ODD STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
AREA OBSERVATIONS HOWEVER HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY STRONG WINDS
ACCOMPANYING PRESENT CONVECTION AND SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY UPPER
WINDS THAT MIX DOWN WOULD BE IN THE 25 KT RANGE. OF COURSE...RAIN-
COOLED DOWNDRAFTS COULD BE MUCH STRONGER.

HAVE LEANED ON THE HRRR FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
WELL. THIS DEPICTS OUR PRESENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. S TO SW FLOW IN WAKE OF WARM FROPA WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WHILE
ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H EAST
COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS EAST. MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEP
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE RETURN. THERE WILL
BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INVOF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH S-SW
FLOW...WHILE THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SKEWED IN AREAS OF CONVECTION.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY SHRA/TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY...LEAVING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS IN ITS WAKE. SEAS WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM PRESENT HEIGHTS...RIGHT AROUND 3 FT...THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SRP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011857
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM SUNDAY...

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AIDING TO MAINTAIN A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE SHOWING UP NICELY ON REGIONAL RADAR TRAVERSING EAST
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. A MID LEVEL VORTICITY (PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND ON INTO VA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EAST AND EXIT OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BY 20Z-
21Z...PARTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. WHILE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT...APPEARS BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS INITIALLY
LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MAX
TEMP FORECAST AS PARTIAL SUN MAY NOT BECOME PROMINENT UNTIL AFTER
18Z...POSSIBLY TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE EFFECTS. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. -WSS

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES EITHER HIGH END MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
BY 21Z-22. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT
OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY 19Z. AFTER 20Z...COULD SEE RANDOM
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT THOUGH
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BEST PROSPECTS ARE IN VICINITY OF
THE TRIAD TERMINALS SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION AT THOSE
SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SKIRT
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND KRWI.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECT TO LIFT BY MID DAY. WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE...ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE BETWEEN 21Z-04Z. IN ADDITION...BLINDING
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011801
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM SUNDAY...

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AIDING TO MAINTAIN A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE SHOWING UP NICELY ON REGIONAL RADAR TRAVERSING EAST
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. A MID LEVEL VORTICITY (PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND ON INTO VA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EAST AND EXIT OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BY 20Z-
21Z...PARTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. WHILE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT...APPEARS BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS INITIALLY
LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MAX
TEMP FORECAST AS PARTIAL SUN MAY NOT BECOME PROMINENT UNTIL AFTER
18Z...POSSIBLY TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE EFFECTS. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. -WSS

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES EITHER HIGH END MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
BY 21Z-22. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT
OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY 19Z. AFTER 20Z...COULD SEE RANDOM
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT THOUGH
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BEST PROSPECTS ARE IN VICINITY OF
THE TRIAD TERMINALS SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION AT THOSE
SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SKIRT
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND KRWI.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECT TO LIFT BY MID DAY. WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE...ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE BETWEEN 21Z-04Z. IN ADDITION...BLINDING
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 011731
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
131 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. GOOD RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...HAVE UPPED POPS OVER OUR INLAND COUNTIES
FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...WITH A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION NOW MOVING
INTO THESE COUNTIES. LATEST FROM SPC AND ALSO AN ANALYSIS OF
MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOW SEVERE THREAT UNLIKELY WITH THE MORE
GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDERSTORM A MORE REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND. THE DAY STARTED VERY CLOUDY
ONCE AGAIN...AND THIS SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS EARLY INITIATION OF
CONVECTION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL NOT BE STRONG TODAY THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE
WATER DATA FROM SENSORS ONBOARD ORBITERS SHOW VALUES AS HIGH AS
1.8 INCHES BEGINNING TO POOL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL INTERIOR
FROM VALDOSTA TO COLUMBIA TO RALEIGH. ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KFT PER LATEST KLTX VWP SCANS. THIS
COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM BURGAW TO WHITEVILLE TO KINGSTREE. ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES AND COAST...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST. CLOUDS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID- LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED
BY RECENT WATER VAPOR MOVIES WILL TAPER EVENING POPS...RAMPING UP
SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO RE-MOISTEN.
MILD MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY...65-70.

&&1

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A GOOD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. THE MOST RECENT QPF AVERAGE OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA SETS
AND WPC REASONING...SUGGEST 1-1.5 INCH TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ADDS SUPPORT. PLENTY
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIX AND CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS. MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL CURTAIL SHOWER PROBABILITIES...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LATEST TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A COOLER WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE
EASTERN FLANK. THERE ARE INTERVALS OF QPF SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS
BUT IT APPEARS VERY DRY AIR WILL WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING
ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SCOUR
SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY (WHICH WERE
LOW TO BEGIN WITH) TO REPRESENT THIS TREND. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE A FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL BE COOLING BEYOND WEDNESDAY TO
SETTLE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INVOF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH S-SW
FLOW...WHILE THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SKEWED IN AREAS OF CONVECTION.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY SHRA/TSRA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE
AND WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE OCEAN IS A BIT BUMPY FOR NO HEADLINES AROUND 4 FEET EVERY 4-5
SECONDS AS THE SEA SPECTRUM REMAINS FULLY TIED TO LOCAL WIND-WAVE
ENERGY. TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND HOLD AT 15 KT...PERHAPS A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT. THE DOMINANT SHORT-PERIOD
WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A UP AND DOWN NATURE TO THE SEA SPECTRUM TODAY
SO SEA SICKNESS MEDS SHOULD BE KEPT NEARBY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN S-SW WIND...NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED AND SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 4 FT OR LESS MOSTLY IN SOUTH
WAVE ENERGY EVERY 5-6 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH 1-2 FOOT E WAVES
EVERY 9 SECONDS. RAIN AND TSTMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALWAYS BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO W EARLY WED BUT
ONLY AROUND 10 KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE DISTORTION NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE OF A WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO POSSIBLY HEADLINE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 011626
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE QUICKLY
DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO COASTAL PLAIN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BETTER
CVRG AND IS MOVING E FASTER THAN MOST MDLS WERE INDICATING. BASED
ON TRENDS UPPED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND AND PUSHED CHC/SLIGHT CHC TO
MOST CSTL SITES. THE WARM FRONT HAS JUMPED N OF REGION WITH SRLY
FLOW ALL AREAS...TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY AND DESPITE RAIN EXPECT
HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST SPOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONT
TO SHOW SB CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG, LI VALUES
-3/-4C WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25KT THIS AFTN...MAINLY W OF HWY
17. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG PULSE TYPE TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN LATE. THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...DEEP MOIST S/SW FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO JUST OVER 1.5". WILL CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH SC TSTM
MENTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND
MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION ON MONDAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
LI VALUES OF -6 TO -8C AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE WATER. POPS RAMP UP
TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
STALLS OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WIND SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A GOOD
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT
PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DECENT INSTABILITY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI`S
-4 TO -6C AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD AGAIN PRODUCE THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO LATE WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...THE PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WHICH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ASSESSING THE
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...WITH AREA IN WARM SECTOR THINK VFR WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHEN CONVECTION
CROSSES AS EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR...BEST CHCS FOR THIS APPEAR TO
BE THRU MID AFTN TODAY THEN LATER TONIGHT INTO MON. ALSO COULD BE
SOME SUB VFR CIGS TWRD DAYBREAK AS LOWER LVLS BECOME SATURATED.
SSW WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE LATE MORN AND AFTN
HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED...POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS WELL. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF IFR PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH CURRENT FCST ON TRACK AS SRLY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT.

PREV DISC...MDLS UNDERDONE WITH ENE SWELL CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.
OVERALL THINK SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 4 TO 5 FEET THESE AREAS INTO THE
AFTN...WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS FURTHER S. SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING
CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS WILL SPREAD N THIS AFTN WITH SPEEDS 10 TO
15 KT POSS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE SSW WINDS WILL CONT TONIGHT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...WL MONITOR FOR POSS 6 FT
SEAS AROUND BUOY 41025 TONIGHT WHERE WARMER SST WILL AID MIXING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT S/SW WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/WNW THURSDAY AT
10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW/W IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011521
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1120 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM SUNDAY...

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AIDING TO MAINTAIN A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE SHOWING UP NICELY ON REGIONAL RADAR TRAVERSING EAST
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. A MID LEVEL VORTICITY (PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND ON INTO VA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EAST AND EXIT OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BY 20Z-
21Z...PARTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. WHILE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT...APPEARS BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS INITIALLY
LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MAX
TEMP FORECAST AS PARTIAL SUN MAY NOT BECOME PROMINENT UNTIL AFTER
18Z...POSSIBLY TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE EFFECTS. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. -WSS

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-
MIDDAY AT FAY AND MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW
CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND.
HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE
PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER
AREA-WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.
INSTEAD...HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP WITH THUNDER ONLY AT TRIAD
TAF SITES FOR NOW...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RETREATING WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS INTO VA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KILM 011404
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1004 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. GOOD RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...HAVE UPPED POPS OVER OUR INLAND COUNTIES
FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...WITH A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION NOW MOVING
INTO THESE COUNTIES. LATEST FROM SPC AND ALSO AN ANALYSIS OF
MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOW SEVERE THREAT UNLIKELY WITH THE MORE
GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDERSTORM A MORE REALISTIC
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND. THE DAY STARTED VERY CLOUDY
ONCE AGAIN...AND THIS SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS EARLY INITIATION OF
CONVECTION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL NOT BE STRONG TODAY THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE
WATER DATA FROM SENSORS ONBOARD ORBITERS SHOW VALUES AS HIGH AS
1.8 INCHES BEGINNING TO POOL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL INTERIOR
FROM VALDOSTA TO COLUMBIA TO RALEIGH. ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KFT PER LATEST KLTX VWP SCANS. THIS
COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM BURGAW TO WHITEVILLE TO KINGSTREE. ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES AND COAST...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST. CLOUDS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID- LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED
BY RECENT WATER VAPOR MOVIES WILL TAPER EVENING POPS...RAMPING UP
SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO RE-MOISTEN.
MILD MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY...65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A GOOD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. THE MOST RECENT QPF AVERAGE OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA SETS
AND WPC REASONING...SUGGEST 1-1.5 INCH TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ADDS SUPPORT. PLENTY
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIX AND CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS. MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL CURTAIL SHOWER PROBABILITIES...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LATEST TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A COOLER WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE
EASTERN FLANK. THERE ARE INTERVALS OF QPF SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS
BUT IT APPEARS VERY DRY AIR WILL WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING
ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SCOUR
SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY (WHICH WERE
LOW TO BEGIN WITH) TO REPRESENT THIS TREND. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE A FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL BE COOLING BEYOND WEDNESDAY TO
SETTLE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT MOVED ONSHORE OF KCRE/KMYR EARLIER THIS
MORNING WHEN WINDS WENT SSE AND SITES BECAME VFR. THE WARM FRONT WAS
STILL S OF KILM TO S OF KFLO AT TAF TIME...HOWEVER CIGS ARE SHOWING
AN IMPROVING TREND. IFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING INLAND OF THE COAST AND
N OF THE WARM FRONT N OF KFLO LOWERING TO LIFR AT KLBT. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING N IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE WERE MOVING E-NE
TOWARDS KFLO/KLBT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N TODAY. CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME SE-S. SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND MID-LATE MORNING....AND INLAND IN THE EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS COULD REACHING THE COAST LATER TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTS WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SO NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE
AND WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE OCEAN IS A BIT BUMPY FOR NO HEADLINES AROUND 4 FEET EVERY 4-5
SECONDS AS THE SEA SPECTRUM REMAINS FULLY TIED TO LOCAL WIND-WAVE
ENERGY. TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND HOLD AT 15 KT...PERHAPS A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT. THE DOMINANT SHORT-PERIOD
WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A UP AND DOWN NATURE TO THE SEA SPECTRUM TODAY
SO SEA SICKNESS MEDS SHOULD BE KEPT NEARBY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN S-SW WIND...NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED AND SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 4 FT OR LESS MOSTLY IN SOUTH
WAVE ENERGY EVERY 5-6 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH 1-2 FOOT E WAVES
EVERY 9 SECONDS. RAIN AND TSTMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALWAYS BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO W EARLY WED BUT
ONLY AROUND 10 KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE DISTORTION NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE OF A WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO POSSIBLY HEADLINE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 011316
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
916 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...WARM FRONT HAS CROSSED SRN TIER AND SHLD BE
THRU ENTIRE AREA NEXT CPL HOURS. RDR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP JUST TO NW
AND THIS WILL LIKELY MISS AREA. GOOD CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA IS MOVING ENE AND IF HOLDS TOGETHER
WILL IMPACT AT LEAST INLAND AREAS THIS AFTN. OVERALL THINK CURRENT
POP FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CHC POPS INLAND AND SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC
CLOSER TO CST THIS AFTN. WITH SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE LOWER 80S INLAND TO
70S CST THIS AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG, LI VALUES -3/-4C WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 25KT...MAINLY W OF HWY 17. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG PULSE TYPE
TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN LATE. THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...DEEP MOIST S/SW FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO JUST OVER 1.5". WILL CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH SC TSTM
MENTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND
MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION ON MONDAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
LI VALUES OF -6 TO -8C AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE WATER. POPS RAMP UP
TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
STALLS OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WIND SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A GOOD
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT
PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DECENT INSTABILITY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI`S
-4 TO -6C AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD AGAIN PRODUCE THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO LATE WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...THE PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WHICH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ASSESSING THE
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR/IFR/VFR ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...BECOMING PRED VFR BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED...POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS WELL. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF IFR PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...MDLS UNDERDONE WITH ENE SWELL CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS. OVERALL THINK SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 4 TO 5 FEET THESE AREAS
INTO THE AFTN...WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS FURTHER S. SRLY WINDS
DEVELOPING CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS WILL SPREAD N THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT POSS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE SSW WINDS WILL
CONT TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...WL MONITOR FOR
POSS 6 FT SEAS AROUND BUOY 41025 TONIGHT WHERE WARMER SST WILL AID
MIXING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT S/SW WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/WNW THURSDAY AT
10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW/W IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 011316
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
916 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...WARM FRONT HAS CROSSED SRN TIER AND SHLD BE
THRU ENTIRE AREA NEXT CPL HOURS. RDR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP JUST TO NW
AND THIS WILL LIKELY MISS AREA. GOOD CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA IS MOVING ENE AND IF HOLDS TOGETHER
WILL IMPACT AT LEAST INLAND AREAS THIS AFTN. OVERALL THINK CURRENT
POP FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CHC POPS INLAND AND SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC
CLOSER TO CST THIS AFTN. WITH SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN SHLD SEE LOWER 80S INLAND TO
70S CST THIS AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG, LI VALUES -3/-4C WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 25KT...MAINLY W OF HWY 17. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG PULSE TYPE
TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN LATE. THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...DEEP MOIST S/SW FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO JUST OVER 1.5". WILL CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH SC TSTM
MENTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND
MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION ON MONDAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
LI VALUES OF -6 TO -8C AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE WATER. POPS RAMP UP
TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
STALLS OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WIND SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A GOOD
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT
PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DECENT INSTABILITY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI`S
-4 TO -6C AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD AGAIN PRODUCE THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO LATE WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...THE PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WHICH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ASSESSING THE
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR/IFR/VFR ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...BECOMING PRED VFR BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED...POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS WELL. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF IFR PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...MDLS UNDERDONE WITH ENE SWELL CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS. OVERALL THINK SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 4 TO 5 FEET THESE AREAS
INTO THE AFTN...WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS FURTHER S. SRLY WINDS
DEVELOPING CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS WILL SPREAD N THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT POSS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE SSW WINDS WILL
CONT TONIGHT AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...WL MONITOR FOR
POSS 6 FT SEAS AROUND BUOY 41025 TONIGHT WHERE WARMER SST WILL AID
MIXING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT S/SW WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/WNW THURSDAY AT
10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW/W IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
753 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING MCV WILL MOVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS A REMNANT COOL/STABLE/WEDGE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW AN
OTHERWISE STEADY NORTHWARD RETREAT OF A WARM FRONT THAT NOW ARCS
AROUND THE THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS - FROM
NORTH- CENTRAL GA NEWD TO NEAR KCLT...THEN SEWD TO THE CENTRAL SC
COAST.

THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED
EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY MODERATELY DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE 70S AND UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SURGE
NEWD...AND BECOME RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGERS OVER
CENTRAL NC (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) --ASIDE FROM LOW
PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND/OR LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WSW FLOW ALOFT-- YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
INDEED...THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN HI-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE.

IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR --BENEATH A REMNANT EML
PLUME SAMPLED BY RAOBS OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY LAST EVENING--
 BOTH INVOF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING/WEDGE
FRONTAL SEGMENT (IE. OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY)...AND ALONG THE EAST-
FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINED BY THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EML PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY STEEP /6-7 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST/ AROUND 40-45 KTS/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER VALUES / TO AROUND 30 KTS/ AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-
CELLULAR MODES OVER SOUTHERN NC. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT...WHERE BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-
MIDDAY AT FAY AND MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW
CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND.
HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE
PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER
AREA-WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.
INSTEAD...HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP WITH THUNDER ONLY AT TRIAD
TAF SITES FOR NOW...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RETREATING WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS INTO VA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
753 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING MCV WILL MOVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS A REMNANT COOL/STABLE/WEDGE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW AN
OTHERWISE STEADY NORTHWARD RETREAT OF A WARM FRONT THAT NOW ARCS
AROUND THE THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS - FROM
NORTH- CENTRAL GA NEWD TO NEAR KCLT...THEN SEWD TO THE CENTRAL SC
COAST.

THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED
EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY MODERATELY DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE 70S AND UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SURGE
NEWD...AND BECOME RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGERS OVER
CENTRAL NC (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) --ASIDE FROM LOW
PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND/OR LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WSW FLOW ALOFT-- YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
INDEED...THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN HI-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE.

IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR --BENEATH A REMNANT EML
PLUME SAMPLED BY RAOBS OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY LAST EVENING--
 BOTH INVOF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING/WEDGE
FRONTAL SEGMENT (IE. OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY)...AND ALONG THE EAST-
FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINED BY THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EML PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY STEEP /6-7 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST/ AROUND 40-45 KTS/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER VALUES / TO AROUND 30 KTS/ AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-
CELLULAR MODES OVER SOUTHERN NC. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT...WHERE BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-
MIDDAY AT FAY AND MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW
CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND.
HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE
PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER
AREA-WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.
INSTEAD...HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP WITH THUNDER ONLY AT TRIAD
TAF SITES FOR NOW...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RETREATING WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS INTO VA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KILM 011143
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL NOT BE STRONG TODAY
THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA FROM SENSORS ONBOARD ORBITERS
SHOW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.8 INCHES BEGINNING TO POOL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL INTERIOR FROM VALDOSTA TO COLUMBIA TO RALEIGH.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KFT PER
LATEST KLTX VWP SCANS. THIS COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED LOW- LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BURGAW TO WHITEVILLE
TO KINGSTREE. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND COAST...ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AT BEST. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID- LEVEL
DRYING OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY RECENT WATER VAPOR MOVIES WILL TAPER
EVENING POPS...RAMPING UP SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO RE-MOISTEN. MILD MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY...65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A GOOD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. THE MOST RECENT QPF AVERAGE OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA SETS
AND WPC REASONING...SUGGEST 1-1.5 INCH TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ADDS SUPPORT. PLENTY
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIX AND CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS. MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL CURTAIL SHOWER PROBABILITIES...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LATEST TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A COOLER WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE
EASTERN FLANK. THERE ARE INTERVALS OF QPF SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS
BUT IT APPEARS VERY DRY AIR WILL WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING
ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SCOUR
SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY (WHICH WERE
LOW TO BEGIN WITH) TO REPRESENT THIS TREND. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE A FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL BE COOLING BEYOND WEDNESDAY TO
SETTLE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT MOVED ONSHORE OF KCRE/KMYR EARLIER THIS
MORNING WHEN WINDS WENT SSE AND SITES BECAME VFR. THE WARM FRONT WAS
STILL S OF KILM TO S OF KFLO AT TAF TIME...HOWEVER CIGS ARE SHOWING
AN IMPROVING TREND. IFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING INLAND OF THE COAST AND
N OF THE WARM FRONT N OF KFLO LOWERING TO LIFR AT KLBT. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING N IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE WERE MOVING E-NE
TOWARDS KFLO/KLBT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N TODAY. CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME SE-S. SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND MID-LATE MORNING....AND INLAND IN THE EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS COULD REACHING THE COAST LATER TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTS WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SO NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM SUNDAY...THE OCEAN IS A BIT BUMPY FOR NO HEADLINES
AROUND 4 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AS THE SEA SPECTRUM REMAINS FULLY
TIED TO LOCAL WIND-WAVE ENERGY. TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND
HOLD AT 15 KT...PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT.
THE DOMINANT SHORT-PERIOD WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A UP AND DOWN NATURE
TO THE SEA SPECTRUM TODAY SO SEA SICKNESS MEDS SHOULD BE KEPT
NEARBY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN S-SW WIND...NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED AND SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 4 FT OR LESS MOSTLY IN SOUTH
WAVE ENERGY EVERY 5-6 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH 1-2 FOOT E WAVES
EVERY 9 SECONDS. RAIN AND TSTMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALWAYS BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO W EARLY WED BUT
ONLY AROUND 10 KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE DISTORTION NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE OF A WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO POSSIBLY HEADLINE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 011143
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL NOT BE STRONG TODAY
THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA FROM SENSORS ONBOARD ORBITERS
SHOW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.8 INCHES BEGINNING TO POOL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL INTERIOR FROM VALDOSTA TO COLUMBIA TO RALEIGH.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KFT PER
LATEST KLTX VWP SCANS. THIS COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED LOW- LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BURGAW TO WHITEVILLE
TO KINGSTREE. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND COAST...ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AT BEST. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID- LEVEL
DRYING OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY RECENT WATER VAPOR MOVIES WILL TAPER
EVENING POPS...RAMPING UP SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO RE-MOISTEN. MILD MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY...65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A GOOD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. THE MOST RECENT QPF AVERAGE OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA SETS
AND WPC REASONING...SUGGEST 1-1.5 INCH TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ADDS SUPPORT. PLENTY
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIX AND CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS. MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL CURTAIL SHOWER PROBABILITIES...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LATEST TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A COOLER WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE
EASTERN FLANK. THERE ARE INTERVALS OF QPF SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS
BUT IT APPEARS VERY DRY AIR WILL WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING
ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SCOUR
SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY (WHICH WERE
LOW TO BEGIN WITH) TO REPRESENT THIS TREND. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE A FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL BE COOLING BEYOND WEDNESDAY TO
SETTLE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT MOVED ONSHORE OF KCRE/KMYR EARLIER THIS
MORNING WHEN WINDS WENT SSE AND SITES BECAME VFR. THE WARM FRONT WAS
STILL S OF KILM TO S OF KFLO AT TAF TIME...HOWEVER CIGS ARE SHOWING
AN IMPROVING TREND. IFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING INLAND OF THE COAST AND
N OF THE WARM FRONT N OF KFLO LOWERING TO LIFR AT KLBT. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING N IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE WERE MOVING E-NE
TOWARDS KFLO/KLBT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N TODAY. CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME SE-S. SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND MID-LATE MORNING....AND INLAND IN THE EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS COULD REACHING THE COAST LATER TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTS WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SO NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM SUNDAY...THE OCEAN IS A BIT BUMPY FOR NO HEADLINES
AROUND 4 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AS THE SEA SPECTRUM REMAINS FULLY
TIED TO LOCAL WIND-WAVE ENERGY. TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND
HOLD AT 15 KT...PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT.
THE DOMINANT SHORT-PERIOD WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A UP AND DOWN NATURE
TO THE SEA SPECTRUM TODAY SO SEA SICKNESS MEDS SHOULD BE KEPT
NEARBY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN S-SW WIND...NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED AND SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 4 FT OR LESS MOSTLY IN SOUTH
WAVE ENERGY EVERY 5-6 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH 1-2 FOOT E WAVES
EVERY 9 SECONDS. RAIN AND TSTMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALWAYS BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO W EARLY WED BUT
ONLY AROUND 10 KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE DISTORTION NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE OF A WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO POSSIBLY HEADLINE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KMHX 011109
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN NC...WITH WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN GA/NORTHERN SC AND NOW UP INTO THE OUTER NC
COASTAL WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
MOVEMENT SEEMS SLOWER THAN 00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS. WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO
MOVE OFF THE WATER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NC LIFTING NE TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INLAND TO SC CLOSER TO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MINIMAL FORCING ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500
J/KG, LI VALUES -3/-4C WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25KT...MAINLY W OF
HWY 17. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG PULSE TYPE TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN LATE. THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...DEEP MOIST S/SW FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO JUST OVER 1.5". WILL CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH SC TSTM
MENTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND
MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION ON MONDAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
LI VALUES OF -6 TO -8C AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE WATER. POPS RAMP UP
TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
STALLS OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WIND SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A GOOD
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT
PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DECENT INSTABILITY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI`S
-4 TO -6C AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD AGAIN PRODUCE THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO LATE WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...THE PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WHICH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ASSESSING THE
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR/IFR/VFR ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...BECOMING PRED VFR BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED...POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS WELL. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF IFR PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW E/NE WINDS 5-15KT WITH SEAS
4-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE...AND 2-4FT SOUTH. THOUGH OUTER BUOYS
SOUTH OF HATTERAS NOW SHOWING SOME SLY WINDS. COULD CONTINUE TO
SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF 6FT SEAS ON OUTER WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE
WITH PERSISTENT NE FETCH THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT LATER THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...THOUGH
COULD SEE STILL SEE SOME 5FT SEAS...POSSIBLY UP TO 6FT NEAR 41025
WITH SLY FLOW AND WARMER WATER TEMPS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT S/SW WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/WNW THURSDAY AT
10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW/W IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KILM 011047
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
647 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL NOT BE STRONG TODAY
THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA FROM SENSORS ONBOARD ORBITERS
SHOW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.8 INCHES BEGINNING TO POOL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL INTERIOR FROM VALDOSTA TO COLUMBIA TO RALEIGH.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KFT PER
LATEST KLTX VWP SCANS. THIS COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED LOW- LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BURGAW TO WHITEVILLE
TO KINGSTREE. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND COAST...ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AT BEST. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID- LEVEL
DRYING OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY RECENT WATER VAPOR MOVIES WILL TAPER
EVENING POPS...RAMPING UP SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO RE-MOISTEN. MILD MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY...65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A GOOD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. THE MOST RECENT QPF AVERAGE OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA SETS
AND WPC REASONING...SUGGEST 1-1.5 INCH TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ADDS SUPPORT. PLENTY
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIX AND CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS. MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL CURTAIL SHOWER PROBABILITIES...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LATEST TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A COOLER WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE
EASTERN FLANK. THERE ARE INTERVALS OF QPF SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS
BUT IT APPEARS VERY DRY AIR WILL WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING
ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SCOUR
SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY (WHICH WERE
LOW TO BEGIN WITH) TO REPRESENT THIS TREND. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE A FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL BE COOLING BEYOND WEDNESDAY TO
SETTLE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z SUNDAY...IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A SHIFT TO SOUTH WINDS TOWARD MORNING LIGHT.
NO DENSE FOG BUT IFR CIGS MOST LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON PERIODS. SOME DRYING WILL
OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM SUNDAY...THE OCEAN IS A BIT BUMPY FOR NO HEADLINES
AROUND 4 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AS THE SEA SPECTRUM REMAINS FULLY
TIED TO LOCAL WIND-WAVE ENERGY. TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND
HOLD AT 15 KT...PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT.
THE DOMINANT SHORT-PERIOD WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A UP AND DOWN NATURE
TO THE SEA SPECTRUM TODAY SO SEA SICKNESS MEDS SHOULD BE KEPT
NEARBY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN S-SW WIND...NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED AND SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 4 FT OR LESS MOSTLY IN SOUTH
WAVE ENERGY EVERY 5-6 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH 1-2 FOOT E WAVES
EVERY 9 SECONDS. RAIN AND TSTMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALWAYS BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO W EARLY WED BUT
ONLY AROUND 10 KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE DISTORTION NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE OF A WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO POSSIBLY HEADLINE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/MRR




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010828
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
428 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING MCV WILL MOVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS A REMNANT COOL/STABLE/WEDGE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW AN
OTHERWISE STEADY NORTHWARD RETREAT OF A WARM FRONT THAT NOW ARCS
AROUND THE THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS - FROM
NORTH- CENTRAL GA NEWD TO NEAR KCLT...THEN SEWD TO THE CENTRAL SC
COAST.

THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED
EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY MODERATELY DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE 70S AND UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SURGE
NEWD...AND BECOME RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGERS OVER
CENTRAL NC (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) --ASIDE FROM LOW
PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND/OR LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WSW FLOW ALOFT-- YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
INDEED...THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN HI-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE.

IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR --BENEATH A REMNANT EML
PLUME SAMPLED BY RAOBS OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY LAST EVENING--
 BOTH INVOF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING/WEDGE
FRONTAL SEGMENT (IE. OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY)...AND ALONG THE EAST-
FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINED BY THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EML PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY STEEP /6-7 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST/ AROUND 40-45 KTS/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER VALUES / TO AROUND 30 KTS/ AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-
CELLULAR MODES OVER SOUTHERN NC. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT...WHERE BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...

INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE
LAYER OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN THE EXPANSION AND
LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-MIDDAY AT FAY AND
MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED EROSION/
SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SAME TIME
FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...THOUGH STILL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE/LOCATION/TIMING GIVEN A CONTINUED ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGERS
APPARENT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010741
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
341 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER EASTERN NC...WITH WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN GA/SOUTHERN SC. THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EASTERN NC LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. MUCH WARMER TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 70S/LOW 80S
INLAND. DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO POPS, WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS INLAND TO SC CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH MINIMAL FORCING ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG, LI VALUES -3/-4C WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 25KT...MAINLY W OF HWY 17. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG PULSE TYPE
TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING...AND COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN LATE. THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...DEEP MOIST S/SW FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE HIGHER
CHANCE POPS WITH SC TSTM MENTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND
MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION ON MONDAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
LI VALUES OF -6 TO -8C AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE WATER. POPS RAMP UP
TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
STALLS OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WIND SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A GOOD
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT
PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DECENT INSTABILITY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI`S
-4 TO -6C AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD AGAIN PRODUCE THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO LATE WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...THE PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WHICH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ASSESSING THE
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUN...CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. COMBINATION OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR STRATUS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED...POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS WELL. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF IFR PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW E/NE WINDS 10-20KT WITH SEAS
4-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE...AND 2-4FT SOUTH. COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF 6FT SEAS ON OUTER WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WITH
PERSISTENT NE FETCH OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT LATER THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...THOUGH COULD SEE STILL SEE SOME 5FT SEAS...POSSIBLY UP
TO 6FT NEAR 41025 WITH SLY FLOW AND WARMER WATER TEMPS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT S/SW WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/WNW THURSDAY AT
10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW/W IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC




000
FXUS62 KILM 010737
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL NOT BE STRONG TODAY
THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA FROM SENSORS ONBOARD ORBITERS
SHOW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.8 INCHES BEGINNING TO POOL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL INTERIOR FROM VALDOSTA TO COLUMBIA TO RALEIGH.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KFT PER
LATEST KLTX VWP SCANS. THIS COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BURGAW TO WHITEVILLE
TO KINGSTREE. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND COAST...ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AT BEST. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY RECENT WATER VAPOR MOVIES WILL TAPER
EVENING POPS...RAMPING UP SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO RE-MOISTEN. MILD MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY...65-70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A GOOD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. THE MOST RECENT QPF AVERAGE OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA SETS
AND WPC REASONING...SUGGEST 1-1.5 INCH TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ADDS SUPPORT. PLENTY
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIX AND CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS. MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL CURTAIL SHOWER PROBABILITIES...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LATEST TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A COOLER WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE
EASTERN FLANK. THERE ARE INTERVALS OF QPF SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS
BUT IT APPEARS VERY DRY AIR WILL WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING
ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SCOUR
SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY (WHICH WERE
LOW TO BEGIN WITH) TO REPRESENT THIS TREND. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE A FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL BE COOLING BEYOND WEDNESDAY TO
SETTLE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z SUNDAY...IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A SHIFT TO SOUTH WINDS TOWARD MORNING LIGHT.
NO DENSE FOG BUT IFR CIGS MOST LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON PERIODS. SOME DRYING WILL
OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE OCEAN IS A BIT BUMPY FOR NO HEADLINES
AROUND 4 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AS THE SEA SPECTRUM REMAINS FULLY
TIED TO LOCAL WIND-WAVE ENERGY. TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND
HOLD AT 15 KT...PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT.
THE DOMINANT SHORT-PERIOD WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A UP AND DOWN NATURE
TO THE SEA SPECTRUM TODAY SO SEA SICKNESS MEDS SHOULD BE KEPT
NEARBY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN S-SW WIND...NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED AND SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 4 FT OR LESS MOSTLY IN SOUTH
WAVE ENERGY EVERY 5-6 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH 1-2 FOOT E WAVES
EVERY 9 SECONDS. RAIN AND TSTMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALWAYS BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO W EARLY WED BUT
ONLY AROUND 10 KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE DISTORTION NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE OF A WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO POSSIBLY HEADLINE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/DL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW
NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND
MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT
INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...
AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION)
A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO
SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...

INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE
LAYER OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN THE EXPANSION AND
LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-MIDDAY AT FAY AND
MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED EROSION/
SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SAME TIME
FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...THOUGH STILL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE/LOCATION/TIMING GIVEN A CONTINUED ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGERS
APPARENT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW
NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND
MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT
INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...
AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION)
A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO
SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...

INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE
LAYER OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN THE EXPANSION AND
LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-MIDDAY AT FAY AND
MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED EROSION/
SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SAME TIME
FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...THOUGH STILL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE/LOCATION/TIMING GIVEN A CONTINUED ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGERS
APPARENT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KILM 010603
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
203 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS JUST BEGINNING TO WOBBLE BACK TO THE N AS
A WARM FRONT. WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED THIS EVE AND GUSTY WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AT THE COAST.

AS THIS WARM FRONT MOVES TO OUR N DURING THE NIGHT...E WINDS WILL
VEER TO SE. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP TOWARD MORNING
WITH A SLACKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL
N OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR W AND SW ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME INROADS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY ALONG
AND W OF INTERSTATE 95. WE WILL SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS EARLY SAT MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
WARM FRONT. A MID-LEVEL...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INSPIRE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...EVE
TEMPS WILL TEND TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN
THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE
OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO
SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED
WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE
SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS
TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z SUNDAY...IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A SHIFT TO SOUTH WINDS TOWARD MORNING LIGHT.
NO DENSE FOG BUT IFR CIGS MOST LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON PERIODS. SOME DRYING WILL
OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...VEERING E
WINDS TO SE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE
IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KT...WITH
SEAS 3 OR 4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH
SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK
OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND COLD
FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/MJC




000
FXUS62 KILM 010603
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
203 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS JUST BEGINNING TO WOBBLE BACK TO THE N AS
A WARM FRONT. WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED THIS EVE AND GUSTY WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AT THE COAST.

AS THIS WARM FRONT MOVES TO OUR N DURING THE NIGHT...E WINDS WILL
VEER TO SE. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP TOWARD MORNING
WITH A SLACKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL
N OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR W AND SW ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME INROADS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY ALONG
AND W OF INTERSTATE 95. WE WILL SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS EARLY SAT MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
WARM FRONT. A MID-LEVEL...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INSPIRE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...EVE
TEMPS WILL TEND TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN
THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE
OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO
SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED
WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE
SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS
TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z SUNDAY...IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A SHIFT TO SOUTH WINDS TOWARD MORNING LIGHT.
NO DENSE FOG BUT IFR CIGS MOST LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON PERIODS. SOME DRYING WILL
OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...VEERING E
WINDS TO SE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE
IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KT...WITH
SEAS 3 OR 4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH
SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK
OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND COLD
FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/MJC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010448
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1248 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUN...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE. WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW STRATUS LIKELY LATE ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH SRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT EARLY MORNING STRATUS
TO BURNOFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PC SKIES REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MAINLY 80 TO 85 INLAND WITH 70S BEACHES.
THIS WARMTH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTAB AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSS
INLAND HOWEVER FORCING IS STILL MINIMAL ALOFT SO THINK CVRG WILL
BE LIMITED AND HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS. KEPT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BEACHES DRY AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A GENERAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
MODELS DEPICTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW STALLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING
PATTERN...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS QUITE LOW...SUCH AS
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS POSITION OF THE
FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT LESS ON MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH
COUPLED WITH MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES
FORECAST AT -5C TO -7C...WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SPC HAS OUR AREA IN THE MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE FOR MONDAY. BULK SHEAR APPEARS LIMITED AT AROUND 20 KT
SO DON`T THINK WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THIS
TIME BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY INLAND
AND 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DECREASES AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
HAD POOR RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. 12Z
MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AND THEN STALL IT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY...LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE
AREA WOULD REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
35-50 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY. AGAIN THE SEVERITY OF
STORMS WILL DEPEND OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING
OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY
KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
PERIOD WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY THURSDAY AND REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON AS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12Z
GFS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS A MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SUBSEQUENTLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUITE WET WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IT IS NOW LOOKING THAT BY THURSDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BUT A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER
LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW.
INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING
WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL WITH
CUT-OFF LOWS...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUN...CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. COMBINATION OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR STRATUS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE LOW AS MODELS ARE NOT IN
BEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS
REMAIN DRY. DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
BUT SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW E/NE WINDS 10-20KT WITH SEAS
4-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE...AND 2-4FT SOUTH. COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF 6FT SEAS ON OUTER WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WITH
PERSISTENT NE FETCH OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT IN AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN
SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WATERS LATE AS WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS QUITE LOW AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT AS WELL AS LOW
PRESSURE AREAS THAT MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. SW WINDS AROUND 10-20
KT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SEAS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP
TO 6 FT POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF
WAVEWATCH VERIFIES. MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT STILL DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE WATERS BUT NOW LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING TIME FRAME. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR OFFSHORE
THE FRONT MOVES AND VARY BETWEEN ALONG THE COAST FROM HATTERAS
SOUTH TO FARTHER OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WINDS BECOME N/NE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE S/SW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT COULD INCREASE UP TO 20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS THURSDAY. BOTH 12Z NWPS AND WAVEWATCH KEEP SEAS AROUND 2-4
FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RF/CTC/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010207
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT... LEADING TO A
WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL OUT OVER
THE APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRINGING WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW
NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND
MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT
INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...
AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION)
A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO
SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP
BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT RULES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFT AFTER
CEILINGS DROP BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING MANY CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010207
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT... LEADING TO A
WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL OUT OVER
THE APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRINGING WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW
NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND
MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT
INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...
AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION)
A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO
SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP
BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT RULES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFT AFTER
CEILINGS DROP BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING MANY CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 010202
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...CURRENT ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS LIKELY LATE
ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH SRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT EARLY MORNING STRATUS
TO BURNOFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PC SKIES REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MAINLY 80 TO 85 INLAND WITH 70S BEACHES.
THIS WARMTH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTAB AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSS
INLAND HOWEVER FORCING IS STILL MINIMAL ALOFT SO THINK CVRG WILL
BE LIMITED AND HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS. KEPT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BEACHES DRY AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A GENERAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
MODELS DEPICTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW STALLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING
PATTERN...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS QUITE LOW...SUCH AS
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS POSITION OF THE
FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT LESS ON MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH
COUPLED WITH MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES
FORECAST AT -5C TO -7C...WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SPC HAS OUR AREA IN THE MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE FOR MONDAY. BULK SHEAR APPEARS LIMITED AT AROUND 20 KT
SO DON`T THINK WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THIS
TIME BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY INLAND
AND 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DECREASES AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
HAD POOR RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. 12Z
MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AND THEN STALL IT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY...LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE
AREA WOULD REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
35-50 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY. AGAIN THE SEVERITY OF
STORMS WILL DEPEND OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING
OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY
KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
PERIOD WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY THURSDAY AND REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON AS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12Z
GFS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS A MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SUBSEQUENTLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUITE WET WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IT IS NOW LOOKING THAT BY THURSDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BUT A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER
LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW.
INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING
WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL WITH
CUT-OFF LOWS...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS N WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR STRATUS MAINLY 06Z-12Z. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN
WARM SECTOR WITH LOW LVL FLOW MORE SRLY. THINK BULK OF CONVECTION
WILL STAY N AND W OF TAF SITES SUNDAY WITH VFR FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING ON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE LOW AS MODELS ARE NOT
IN BEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS
REMAIN DRY. DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
BUT SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...MARINE ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT IN AFTERNOON.

WL CONT MARGINAL SCA INTO EARLY EVENING N OF OCRACOKE AS SEAS
OVER OUTER CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS STILL 5 TO 6 FEET. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET. ON SUNDAY
WILL AGAIN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WATERS LATE AS WINDS
INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS QUITE LOW AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT AS WELL AS LOW
PRESSURE AREAS THAT MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. SW WINDS AROUND 10-20
KT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SEAS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP
TO 6 FT POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF
WAVEWATCH VERIFIES. MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT STILL DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE WATERS BUT NOW LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING TIME FRAME. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR OFFSHORE
THE FRONT MOVES AND VARY BETWEEN ALONG THE COAST FROM HATTERAS
SOUTH TO FARTHER OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WINDS BECOME N/NE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE S/SW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT COULD INCREASE UP TO 20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS THURSDAY. BOTH 12Z NWPS AND WAVEWATCH KEEP SEAS AROUND 2-4
FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...HSA/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/RF/CTC
MARINE...HSA/RF/CTC




000
FXUS62 KILM 010146
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
946 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM SATURDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
WOBBLE BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS HAVE REMAINED
ELEVATED THIS EVE AND GUSTY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH
AT THE COAST.

AS THIS WARM FRONT MOVES TO OUR N DURING THE NIGHT...E WINDS WILL
VEER TO SE. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP TOWARD MORNING
WITH A SLACKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL
N OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR W AND SW ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME INROADS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY ALONG
AND W OF INTERSTATE 95. WE WILL SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS EARLY SAT MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
WARM FRONT. A MID-LEVEL...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INSPIRE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...EVE
TEMPS WILL TEND TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN
THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE
OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO
SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED
WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE
SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS
TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
REINTRODUCING STRATUS INTO THE PICTURE...FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WAVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. FOR DIURNAL REASONS...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF
A WIND SHIFT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ANY FOG IN THE PICTURE...BUT MAY HAVE
TO REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MODELS HAVE WEAK SLUGS OF MOISTURE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR
THE COASTAL STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THESE PERIODS RESPECTIVELY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...VEERING E WINDS TO SE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO
20 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KT...WITH
SEAS 3 OR 4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH
SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK
OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND COLD
FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KILM 010146
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
946 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM SATURDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
WOBBLE BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS HAVE REMAINED
ELEVATED THIS EVE AND GUSTY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH
AT THE COAST.

AS THIS WARM FRONT MOVES TO OUR N DURING THE NIGHT...E WINDS WILL
VEER TO SE. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP TOWARD MORNING
WITH A SLACKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL
N OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR W AND SW ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
SOME INROADS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY ALONG
AND W OF INTERSTATE 95. WE WILL SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS EARLY SAT MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
WARM FRONT. A MID-LEVEL...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INSPIRE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W.

A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...EVE
TEMPS WILL TEND TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN
THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE
OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO
SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED
WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE
SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS
TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
REINTRODUCING STRATUS INTO THE PICTURE...FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WAVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. FOR DIURNAL REASONS...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF
A WIND SHIFT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ANY FOG IN THE PICTURE...BUT MAY HAVE
TO REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MODELS HAVE WEAK SLUGS OF MOISTURE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR
THE COASTAL STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THESE PERIODS RESPECTIVELY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...VEERING E WINDS TO SE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO
20 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KT...WITH
SEAS 3 OR 4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH
SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK
OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND COLD
FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 302353
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
753 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TRAPPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAINING A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
COUNTIES WHERE PARTIAL BREAKS ARE OCCURRING (AS PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY). THIS PARTIAL SUN HAS AIDED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S. OTHERWISE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

BULK OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STALLED SFC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
OUR WESTERN-NW COUNTIES. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL WHILE SFC WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM AN ELY TO A SOUTH-SELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP
BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT RULES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFT AFTER
CEILINGS DROP BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING MANY CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KILM 302341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
741 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM SATURDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS JUST S OF THE
SANTEE RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
EXPECT CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER WITH A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY W OF THE AREA
THIS EVE. EARLIER SHOWERS ACROSS DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES
HAVE ENDED. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF A WARM FRONT. A MID-LEVEL...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INSPIRE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE W. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE OR SMALL
CHANCE POPS TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS W. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CONVECTION TONIGHT. THE GFS IS ALSO SIMILAR IN ITS EVOLUTION OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS MORE ELEVATED THAN
LAST NIGHT AND SO EXPECT MORE STRATUS THAN FOG. IN FACT...CEILINGS
MAY TEND TO IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED
SE WINDS SHOULD KEEP MINS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 60S. LOWER
60S WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND N OF A LBT...EYF...ILM
LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN
THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE
OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO
SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED
WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE
SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS
TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
REINTRODUCING STRATUS INTO THE PICTURE...FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WAVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. FOR DIURNAL REASONS...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF
A WIND SHIFT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ANY FOG IN THE PICTURE...BUT MAY HAVE
TO REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MODELS HAVE WEAK SLUGS OF MOISTURE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR
THE COASTAL STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THESE PERIODS RESPECTIVELY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...VEERING E WINDS TO SE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO
20 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KT...WITH
SEAS 3 OR 4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH
SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK
OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND COLD
FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 302307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...CURRENT ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS LIKELY LATE
ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH SRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT EARLY MORNING STRATUS
TO BURNOFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PC SKIES REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MAINLY 80 TO 85 INLAND WITH 70S BEACHES.
THIS WARMTH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTAB AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSS
INLAND HOWEVER FORCING IS STILL MINIMAL ALOFT SO THINK CVRG WILL
BE LIMITED AND HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS. KEPT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BEACHES DRY AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A GENERAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
MODELS DEPICTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW STALLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING
PATTERN...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS QUITE LOW...SUCH AS
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS POSITION OF THE
FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT LESS ON MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH
COUPLED WITH MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES
FORECAST AT -5C TO -7C...WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SPC HAS OUR AREA IN THE MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE FOR MONDAY. BULK SHEAR APPEARS LIMITED AT AROUND 20 KT
SO DON`T THINK WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THIS
TIME BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY INLAND
AND 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DECREASES AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
HAD POOR RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. 12Z
MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AND THEN STALL IT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY...LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE
AREA WOULD REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
35-50 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY. AGAIN THE SEVERITY OF
STORMS WILL DEPEND OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING
OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY
KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
PERIOD WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY THURSDAY AND REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON AS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12Z
GFS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS A MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SUBSEQUENTLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUITE WET WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IT IS NOW LOOKING THAT BY THURSDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BUT A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER
LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW.
INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING
WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL WITH
CUT-OFF LOWS...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS N WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR STRATUS MAINLY 06Z-12Z. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN
WARM SECTOR WITH LOW LVL FLOW MORE SRLY. THINK BULK OF CONVECTION
WILL STAY N AND W OF TAF SITES SUNDAY WITH VFR FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING ON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE LOW AS MODELS ARE NOT
IN BEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS
REMAIN DRY. DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
BUT SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 6 FEET AND HAVE LET
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 7 PM. MARINE ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO CHANGES NEEDED. CURRENT NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
SRLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20
KT IN AFTERNOON.

WL CONT MARGINAL SCA INTO EARLY EVENING N OF OCRACOKE AS SEAS
OVER OUTER CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS STILL 5 TO 6 FEET. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET. ON SUNDAY
WILL AGAIN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WATERS LATE AS WINDS
INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS QUITE LOW AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT AS WELL AS LOW
PRESSURE AREAS THAT MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. SW WINDS AROUND 10-20
KT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SEAS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP
TO 6 FT POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF
WAVEWATCH VERIFIES. MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT STILL DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE WATERS BUT NOW LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING TIME FRAME. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR OFFSHORE
THE FRONT MOVES AND VARY BETWEEN ALONG THE COAST FROM HATTERAS
SOUTH TO FARTHER OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WINDS BECOME N/NE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE S/SW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT COULD INCREASE UP TO 20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS THURSDAY. BOTH 12Z NWPS AND WAVEWATCH KEEP SEAS AROUND 2-4
FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...HSA/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/RF/CTC
MARINE...HSA/RF/CTC




000
FXUS62 KILM 302219
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. SEVERAL WEAK
LOWS WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT DRYING
WILL COMMENCE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...STRATUS DECK COVERING THE CWA THIS MORNING
FINALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BUT IS STILL FAIRLY EXTENSIVE IN
SCOPE. THIS LAYER HAS HELPED KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES BUT NOW WE
MAY SEE READINGS RISE A BIT FASTER IN SPOTS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
HAS THINNED. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO KEPT A LID ON CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH WE WERE NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS EXCEPT POSSIBLY WELL INLAND WHERE A FRONTAL WAVE WILL
TRANSIT THE AREA. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ASSUMING THAT WE DO GET SOME SUN. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 INCH RANGE AND ANY PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO POP INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WEAKLY WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME IN ITS
WAKE WILL KEEP MINIMUMS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH IS
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. KEEPING IN SLIGHT OT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
BRUSHES BY THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN
THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE
OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO
SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED
WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE
SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS
TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
REINTRODUCING STRATUS INTO THE PICTURE...FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WAVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. FOR DIURNAL REASONS...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH
OF A WIND SHIFT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ANY FOG IN THE PICTURE...BUT MAY HAVE
TO REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MODELS HAVE WEAK SLUGS OF MOISTURE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR
THE COASTAL STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THESE PERIODS RESPECTIVELY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS TODAY WILL VEER
TO THE SE TONIGHT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KTS...WITH
SEAS CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND 3 OR 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK OF
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND
COLD FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KILM 302219
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. SEVERAL WEAK
LOWS WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT DRYING
WILL COMMENCE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...STRATUS DECK COVERING THE CWA THIS MORNING
FINALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BUT IS STILL FAIRLY EXTENSIVE IN
SCOPE. THIS LAYER HAS HELPED KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES BUT NOW WE
MAY SEE READINGS RISE A BIT FASTER IN SPOTS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
HAS THINNED. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO KEPT A LID ON CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH WE WERE NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS EXCEPT POSSIBLY WELL INLAND WHERE A FRONTAL WAVE WILL
TRANSIT THE AREA. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ASSUMING THAT WE DO GET SOME SUN. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 INCH RANGE AND ANY PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO POP INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WEAKLY WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME IN ITS
WAKE WILL KEEP MINIMUMS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH IS
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. KEEPING IN SLIGHT OT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
BRUSHES BY THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN
THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE
OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO
SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED
WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE
SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS
TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
REINTRODUCING STRATUS INTO THE PICTURE...FAIRLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WAVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. FOR DIURNAL REASONS...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH
OF A WIND SHIFT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ANY FOG IN THE PICTURE...BUT MAY HAVE
TO REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MODELS HAVE WEAK SLUGS OF MOISTURE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR
THE COASTAL STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THESE PERIODS RESPECTIVELY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS TODAY WILL VEER
TO THE SE TONIGHT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KTS...WITH
SEAS CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND 3 OR 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK OF
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND
COLD FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43




000
FXUS62 KMHX 302030
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
430 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT....THEN STALL NEAR
OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. BETTER FORCING WILL BE N AND W OF REGION AND HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR ALL BUT FAR NW TIER LATE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW ST LIKELY LATE ASSOC WITH WARM
FRONT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH SRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT EARLY MORNING STRATUS
TO BURNOFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PC SKIES REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH WARMER...MAINLY 80 TO 85 INLAND WITH 70S BEACHES.
THIS WARMTH WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTAB AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSS
INLAND HOWEVER FORCING IS STILL MINIMAL ALOFT SO THINK CVRG WILL
BE LIMITED AND HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS. KEPT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BEACHES DRY AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A GENERAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
MODELS DEPICTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW STALLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING
PATTERN...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS QUITE LOW...SUCH AS
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS POSITION OF THE
FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT LESS ON MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH
COUPLED WITH MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES
FORECAST AT -5C TO -7C...WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SPC HAS OUR AREA IN THE MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE FOR MONDAY. BULK SHEAR APPEARS LIMITED AT AROUND 20 KT
SO DON`T THINK WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THIS
TIME BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY INLAND
AND 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DECREASES AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
HAD POOR RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. 12Z
MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
FRONT NOT MOVING INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AND THEN STALL IT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD...LIKELY...LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE
AREA WOULD REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
35-50 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY. AGAIN THE SEVERITY OF
STORMS WILL DEPEND OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING
OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY
KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
PERIOD WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY THURSDAY AND REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON AS MODELS DIFFER WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12Z
GFS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS A MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SUBSEQUENTLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUITE WET WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IT IS NOW LOOKING THAT BY THURSDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BUT A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER
LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW.
INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PERIODS OF ENHANCED LIFT WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING
WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL WITH
CUT-OFF LOWS...MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SAT...THE STRATUS HAS LIFTED TO MVFR MOST AREAS
WITH SOME VFR SRN TIER. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR INTO THE EVENING
WITH BEST CHCS OF ALL VFR TOWARD EVENING. OVERNIGHT LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS N WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUNDS OF IFR STRATUS MAINLY 06Z-12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOW LVL
FLOW MORE SRLY. THINK BULK OF CONVECTION WILL STAY N AND W OF TAF
SITES SUNDAY WITH VFR FROM MID TO LATE MORN ON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE LOW AS MODELS ARE NOT
IN BEST AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE PEAK ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS
REMAIN DRY. DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
BUT SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...CURRENT NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO
15 TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT IN AFTERNOON.

WL CONT MARGINAL SCA INTO EARLY EVENING N OF OCRACOKE AS SEAS
OVER OUTER CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS STILL 5 TO 6 FEET. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET. ON SUNDAY
WILL AGAIN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WATERS LATE AS WINDS
INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS QUITE LOW AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT AS WELL AS LOW
PRESSURE AREAS THAT MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. SW WINDS AROUND 10-20
KT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SEAS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINANTLY BE AROUND 3-5 FT WITH PERIOD OF UP
TO 6 FT POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS PER THE NWPS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT IF
WAVEWATCH VERIFIES. MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT STILL DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE WATERS BUT NOW LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING TIME FRAME. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR OFFSHORE
THE FRONT MOVES AND VARY BETWEEN ALONG THE COAST FROM HATTERAS
SOUTH TO FARTHER OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WINDS BECOME N/NE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE S/SW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT COULD INCREASE UP TO 20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS THURSDAY. BOTH 12Z NWPS AND WAVEWATCH KEEP SEAS AROUND 2-4
FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301926
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TRAPPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAINING A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
COUNTIES WHERE PARTIAL BREAKS ARE OCCURRING (AS PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY). THIS PARTIAL SUN HAS AIDED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S. OTHERWISE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

BULK OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STALLED SFC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
OUR WESTERN-NW COUNTIES. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL WHILE SFC WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM AN ELY TO A SOUTH-SELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS. NOW APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY SKIRT
CLOSE TO KINT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. ANY AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT THOUGH NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY FROM AN EAST-SE DIRECTION AT
THE SFC TO A SSW FLOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
40KTS IN VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAF.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO THE LOW END OF VFR PARAMETERS. AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 301923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. SEVERAL WEAK
LOWS WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHT DRYING
WILL COMMENCE MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...STRATUS DECK COVERING THE CWA THIS MORNING
FINALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP BUT IS STILL FAIRLY EXTENSIVE IN
SCOPE. THIS LAYER HAS HELPED KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES BUT NOW WE
MAY SEE READINGS RISE A BIT FASTER IN SPOTS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER
HAS THINNED. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO KEPT A LID ON CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH WE WERE NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS EXCEPT POSSIBLY WELL INLAND WHERE A FRONTAL WAVE WILL
TRANSIT THE AREA. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE COLUMN COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ASSUMING THAT WE DO GET SOME SUN. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25 INCH RANGE AND ANY PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO POP INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WEAKLY WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME IN ITS
WAKE WILL KEEP MINIMUMS ELEVATED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH IS
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. KEEPING IN SLIGHT OT LOW CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
BRUSHES BY THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN
THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE
OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO
SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED
WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS
LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE
SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS
TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS THE EVENT NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z SATURDAY...CEILINGS THRUOUT THIS 24 HR TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THRESHOLDS. UP TO
SEVERAL HRS THIS AFTN MAY OBSERVE VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY THE
ILM SC TERMINALS.

A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY DAYTIME
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...LOW STRATUS WILL DOMINATE.
THE DAYS HEATING THIS AFTN MAY ALLOW SOME TEMPORARY BREAKS IN THIS
STRATUS DECK...WITH DIURNAL CU TEMPORARILY FILLING IN. WILL
INDICATE VCSH AS THE WARM FRONT ITSELF MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THIS PCPN THREAT THRU 18Z
WITH THE AREA TERMINALS NOW IN AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE VEERING WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF VFR THRU THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS TODAY WILL VEER
TO THE SE TONIGHT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KTS...WITH
SEAS CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND 3 OR 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK OF
COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND
COLD FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301922
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TRAPPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAINING A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
COUNTIES WHERE PARTIAL BREAKS ARE OCCURRING (AS PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY). THIS PARTIAL SUN HAS AIDED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S. OTHERWISE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

BULK OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STALLED SFC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
OUR WESTERN-NW COUNTIES. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL WHILE SFC WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM AN ELY TO A SOUTH-SELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STRONGER BL MIXING WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT...FOCUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AN COASTAL PLAIN.
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...OFFERING A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
SETTLES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN FALLS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA RESULT INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
THE EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE EC
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SETTLES AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY...AND DAILY HIGHS AT LEAST A COUPLE
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...IF NOT MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS. NOW APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY SKIRT
CLOSE TO KINT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. ANY AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT THOUGH NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY FROM AN EAST-SE DIRECTION AT
THE SFC TO A SSW FLOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
40KTS IN VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAF.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO THE LOW END OF VFR PARAMETERS. AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301750
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT --WITH COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTH...AND MUCH WARMER ONES TO THE SOUTH-- WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NC TODAY. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
FOLLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RESULT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SATURDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A COOL MOIST STABLE AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC WITH LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERING THE AREA. 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A S/W RIDGE OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRAP/CONFINE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO ANY EROSION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. THIS...IN TURN WILL YIELD A WIDE VARIANCE IN
MAX TEMPS...POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
IF PARTIAL SUN DEVELOPS SOONER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 80.

ASIDE FROM A STRAY PATCH OF DRIZZLE...MOST OF CENTRAL NC CAN EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z...AND MORE SO
AFTER 20Z...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS MOVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY WHICH
IS PROJECTED TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR PRETTY ANEMIC ACROSS THIS REGION AND ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO
ONLY BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG A SOUTH OF A LEXINGTON TO LAURINBURG LINE
CURRENTLY LOOKING PRETTY SLIM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -WSS


TONIGHT: NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE ALREADY STABLE SURFACE LAYER WILL
CAUSE LOW CLOUD BASES TO FURTHER LOWER/RE-DEVELOP WHERE ANY BREAKS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RAN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING-
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND STATIC
STABILITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AS SUCH...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...SOME POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
LATE OWING TO MIXING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

A PORTION OF THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL EJECT
EASTWARD AND RACE ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...SHUNTING THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD
IN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ONGOING OVER SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
NC...OWING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...WILL LIKELY BLEED INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE
AMIDST PW OF 1.25-1.50".  CAPE GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE HIGHER IN THE
WEST..THOUGH THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MODEST...30-35KT ACROSS THE NORTH IN CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
MAIN LIMITATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF A
FOCUS...OUTSIDE IF A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT.  THUS..ITS HEARD TO
HAVE MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SEVERE STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 SE.

THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS INT
HE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW VEERS TO MORE
WESTERLY AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOWS 61-68 WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STRONGER BL MIXING WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT...FOCUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AN COASTAL PLAIN.
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...OFFERING A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
SETTLES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN FALLS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA RESULT INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
THE EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE EC
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SETTLES AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY...AND DAILY HIGHS AT LEAST A COUPLE
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...IF NOT MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS. NOW APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY SKIRT
CLOSE TO KINT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. ANY AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT THOUGH NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY FROM AN EAST-SE DIRECTION AT
THE SFC TO A SSW FLOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
40KTS IN VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAF.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO THE LOW END OF VFR PARAMETERS. AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KILM 301747
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT DRYING
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN CHECK.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND COOLING AIR TEMPS
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...WILL PROMOTE MIST AND STRATUS
OVER NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH DAYBREAK. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN...AND ALSO
THAT UPSTREAM CIRRUS CONTINUES A THINNING TREND.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PROMPT
CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR FROM INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTY ACROSS
NE SC...EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE AIDED BY A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. COLUMN MOISTURE IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY ALOFT BUT THIS COULD
IN TURN HELP CONVECTION ENTRAIN DRY AIR TO BRING AN ELEVATED GUST
POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAN AN AXIS OF 0-1KM ENERGY
HELICITY INDICES IMPINGE OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PEAK HEATING. A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR ROTATING SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM FLORENCE TO HARTSVILLE TO DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION.

MAX TEMPS MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S INTERIOR NE SC...WITH MINS AT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY LOWS/MID 60S SE NC AND UPPER 60S NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN WEATHER CAPTION IS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS COLUMN MOISTURE RAMPS UP SUNDAY. A BOUNDARY N AND W OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MAY SEE STORM AND SHOWER INITIATION WHILE THE
STEERING FLOW POTENTIALLY GUIDES SOME OF THE CONVECTION INTO SE NC
AND NE SC. THE DAYTIME WARMING WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COAST INLAND. BECAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...SPC HAS HELD ONTO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SE NC AND PARTS OF NE SC. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S COAST AND LOW
80S INLAND.

ELEVATED COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH BRIEF MID
LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HEATING AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY
IN PROXIMITY TO SE NC WILL AGAIN PROMPT A CHANCE AT A MARGINALLY
STRONG TSTM. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY WILL
FATTEN LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOUT
THE AREA WE SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
POTENT SYSTEM AND THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN GOOD RAINFALL WITH
THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS RECENTLY. BY THURSDAY A FULL BLOWN OMEGA
PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING A GOOD PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z SATURDAY...CEILINGS THRUOUT THIS 24 HR TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THRESHOLDS. UP TO
SEVERAL HRS THIS AFTN MAY OBSERVE VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY THE
ILM SC TERMINALS.

A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY DAYTIME
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...LOW STRATUS WILL DOMINATE.
THE DAYS HEATING THIS AFTN MAY ALLOW SOME TEMPORARY BREAKS IN THIS
STRATUS DECK...WITH DIURNAL CU TEMPORARILY FILLING IN. WILL
INDICATE VCSH AS THE WARM FRONT ITSELF MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THIS PCPN THREAT THRU 18Z
WITH THE AREA TERMINALS NOW IN AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE VEERING WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF VFR THRU THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS BY A FOOT TO 3 TO 4
FT BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TREND. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

SUB-ADVISORY BUT LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS A
SURGE OF NE-E WIND WORKS DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING...GUSTS TO 20
KT MAY BE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY TODAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING
WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT BEFORE EVENING IN THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND.
WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND TO SE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY HELPING
TO MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. NO
ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN MARINE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IN THIS WARM FLOW
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...A RADAR UPDATE
IS A SMART IDEA BEFORE VENTURING OUT. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 3-4 FT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY
BRIEFLY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED.
OVERALL EXPECT A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO
ECLIPSE TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN MUTED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301640
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1240 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM SAT...THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTS TO GRAD LIFT
HOWEVER EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO CONT THRU THE AFTN. HAVE
SEEN SOME BREAKS SRN TIER AND TEMPS THERE ARE NOW NEAR 70. ACROSS
THE N EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 60S THIS AFTN GIVEN LIMITED
BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH NE/E FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT COULD HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE DEEP INLAND AND UP TOWARDS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS, THOUGH
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
MODELS DEPICTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WELL INLAND SUNDAY BEFORE
PIVOTING TOWARD THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT LESS ON MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH
COUPLED WITH MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES
FORECAST AT -4 TO -6...WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND SPC HAS OUR AREA IN THE MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCE CONTINUE IN PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES TUESDAY
AND THIS LEADS TO THE ECMWF BEING MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS...AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE INLAND LOW PRESSURE TRACK. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS AT 30-40 PCT LEVELS TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALONG WITH
CANADIAN SHOW ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NEAR OR JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A WETTER SCENARIO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE PERIODS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MID-LEVEL LOW
CLOSING OFF AND DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS DEEP CYCLONGENESIS ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER LOW. MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SAT...THE STRATUS HAS LIFTED TO MVFR MOST AREAS
WITH SOME VFR SRN TIER. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR INTO THE EVENING
WITH BEST CHCS OF ALL VFR TOWARD EVENING. OVERNIGHT LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS N WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUNDS OF IFR STRATUS MAINLY 06Z-12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOW LVL
FLOW MORE SRLY. THINK BULK OF CONVECTION WILL STAY N AND W OF TAF
SITES SUNDAY WITH VFR FROM MID TO LATE MORN ON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CONDITIONS
WILL LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. A COLD FRONT
DRIVES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. PERIODS OF MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE QUITE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SAT...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH CONT SCA CENTRAL AND
NRN WTRS INTO THIS EVENING FOR 6 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS.

PREV DISC...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 10-20KT...STRONGEST NORTH
OF OCRACOKE WITH SEAS 3-5FT...AND SEAS 2-3FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE WATERS. NE/E FLOW 10-15KT TODAY...STRONGER
ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 4125 AND THE GULF STREAM WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15KT AND GUSTS TO 20KT...AND SEAS 3-5FT NORTH
OF OCRACOKE AND 2-4FT SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH NE/E FLOW 10-15KT BECOMING SLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL AREAS OF 6 FOOT
SEAS WELL OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT BECOME N/NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AT
5-15 KNOTS. PER LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...SEAS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED 4-5 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KILM 301623
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT DRYING
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN CHECK.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND COOLING AIR TEMPS
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...WILL PROMOTE MIST AND STRATUS
OVER NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH DAYBREAK. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN...AND ALSO
THAT UPSTREAM CIRRUS CONTINUES A THINNING TREND.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PROMPT
CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR FROM INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTY ACROSS
NE SC...EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE AIDED BY A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. COLUMN MOISTURE IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY ALOFT BUT THIS COULD
IN TURN HELP CONVECTION ENTRAIN DRY AIR TO BRING AN ELEVATED GUST
POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAN AN AXIS OF 0-1KM ENERGY
HELICITY INDICES IMPINGE OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PEAK HEATING. A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR ROTATING SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM FLORENCE TO HARTSVILLE TO DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION.

MAX TEMPS MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S INTERIOR NE SC...WITH MINS AT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY LOWS/MID 60S SE NC AND UPPER 60S NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN WEATHER CAPTION IS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS COLUMN MOISTURE RAMPS UP SUNDAY. A BOUNDARY N AND W OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MAY SEE STORM AND SHOWER INITIATION WHILE THE
STEERING FLOW POTENTIALLY GUIDES SOME OF THE CONVECTION INTO SE NC
AND NE SC. THE DAYTIME WARMING WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COAST INLAND. BECAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...SPC HAS HELD ONTO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SE NC AND PARTS OF NE SC. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S COAST AND LOW
80S INLAND.

ELEVATED COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH BRIEF MID
LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HEATING AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY
IN PROXIMITY TO SE NC WILL AGAIN PROMPT A CHANCE AT A MARGINALLY
STRONG TSTM. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY WILL
FATTEN LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOUT
THE AREA WE SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
POTENT SYSTEM AND THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN GOOD RAINFALL WITH
THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS RECENTLY. BY THURSDAY A FULL BLOWN OMEGA
PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING A GOOD PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING SW ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A VERY MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS
MANIFESTED ITSELF IN MVFR CIGS/TEMPO IFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES CURRENTLY SHOW LITTLE CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS
     SO EXPECT CIGS TO DIURNALLY IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SC TERMINALS. CIGS AND VSBYS RETURN TO A MVFR/IFR
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING/SURFACE BOUNDARIES/VORTICITY TODAY. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL OMIT IN TAFS FOR NOW.
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT FROM DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS BY A FOOT TO 3 TO 4
FT BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TREND. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

SUB-ADVISORY BUT LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS A
SURGE OF NE-E WIND WORKS DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING...GUSTS TO 20
KT MAY BE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY TODAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING
WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT BEFORE EVENING IN THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND.
WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND TO SE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY HELPING
TO MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. NO
ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN MARINE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IN THIS WARM FLOW
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...A RADAR UPDATE
IS A SMART IDEA BEFORE VENTURING OUT. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 3-4 FT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY
BRIEFLY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED.
OVERALL EXPECT A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO
ECLIPSE TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN MUTED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KILM 301623
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT DRYING
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN CHECK.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND COOLING AIR TEMPS
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...WILL PROMOTE MIST AND STRATUS
OVER NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH DAYBREAK. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN...AND ALSO
THAT UPSTREAM CIRRUS CONTINUES A THINNING TREND.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PROMPT
CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR FROM INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTY ACROSS
NE SC...EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE AIDED BY A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. COLUMN MOISTURE IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY ALOFT BUT THIS COULD
IN TURN HELP CONVECTION ENTRAIN DRY AIR TO BRING AN ELEVATED GUST
POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAN AN AXIS OF 0-1KM ENERGY
HELICITY INDICES IMPINGE OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PEAK HEATING. A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR ROTATING SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM FLORENCE TO HARTSVILLE TO DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION.

MAX TEMPS MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S INTERIOR NE SC...WITH MINS AT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY LOWS/MID 60S SE NC AND UPPER 60S NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN WEATHER CAPTION IS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS COLUMN MOISTURE RAMPS UP SUNDAY. A BOUNDARY N AND W OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MAY SEE STORM AND SHOWER INITIATION WHILE THE
STEERING FLOW POTENTIALLY GUIDES SOME OF THE CONVECTION INTO SE NC
AND NE SC. THE DAYTIME WARMING WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COAST INLAND. BECAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...SPC HAS HELD ONTO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SE NC AND PARTS OF NE SC. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S COAST AND LOW
80S INLAND.

ELEVATED COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH BRIEF MID
LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HEATING AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY
IN PROXIMITY TO SE NC WILL AGAIN PROMPT A CHANCE AT A MARGINALLY
STRONG TSTM. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY WILL
FATTEN LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOUT
THE AREA WE SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
POTENT SYSTEM AND THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN GOOD RAINFALL WITH
THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS RECENTLY. BY THURSDAY A FULL BLOWN OMEGA
PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING A GOOD PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING SW ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A VERY MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS
MANIFESTED ITSELF IN MVFR CIGS/TEMPO IFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES CURRENTLY SHOW LITTLE CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS
     SO EXPECT CIGS TO DIURNALLY IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SC TERMINALS. CIGS AND VSBYS RETURN TO A MVFR/IFR
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING/SURFACE BOUNDARIES/VORTICITY TODAY. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL OMIT IN TAFS FOR NOW.
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT FROM DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS BY A FOOT TO 3 TO 4
FT BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TREND. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWS:

SUB-ADVISORY BUT LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS A
SURGE OF NE-E WIND WORKS DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING...GUSTS TO 20
KT MAY BE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY TODAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING
WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT BEFORE EVENING IN THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND.
WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND TO SE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY HELPING
TO MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. NO
ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN MARINE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IN THIS WARM FLOW
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...A RADAR UPDATE
IS A SMART IDEA BEFORE VENTURING OUT. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 3-4 FT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY
BRIEFLY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED.
OVERALL EXPECT A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO
ECLIPSE TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN MUTED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301450
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT --WITH COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTH...AND MUCH WARMER ONES TO THE SOUTH-- WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NC TODAY. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
FOLLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RESULT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SATURDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A COOL MOIST STABLE AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC WITH LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERING THE AREA. 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A S/W RIDGE OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRAP/CONFINE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO ANY EROSION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. THIS...IN TURN WILL YIELD A WIDE VARIANCE IN
MAX TEMPS...POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
IF PARTIAL SUN DEVELOPS SOONER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 80.

ASIDE FROM A STRAY PATCH OF DRIZZLE...MOST OF CENTRAL NC CAN EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z...AND MORE SO
AFTER 20Z...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS MOVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY WHICH
IS PROJECTED TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR PRETTY ANEMIC ACROSS THIS REGION AND ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO
ONLY BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG A SOUTH OF A LEXINGTON TO LAURINBURG LINE
CURRENTLY LOOKING PRETTY SLIM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -WSS


TONIGHT: NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE ALREADY STABLE SURFACE LAYER WILL
CAUSE LOW CLOUD BASES TO FURTHER LOWER/RE-DEVELOP WHERE ANY BREAKS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RAN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING-
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND STATIC
STABILITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AS SUCH...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...SOME POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
LATE OWING TO MIXING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

A PORTION OF THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL EJECT
EASTWARD AND RACE ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...SHUNTING THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD
IN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ONGOING OVER SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
NC...OWING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...WILL LIKELY BLEED INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE
AMIDST PW OF 1.25-1.50".  CAPE GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE HIGHER IN THE
WEST..THOUGH THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MODEST...30-35KT ACROSS THE NORTH IN CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
MAIN LIMITATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF A
FOCUS...OUTSIDE IF A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT.  THUS..ITS HEARD TO
HAVE MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SEVERE STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 SE.

THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS INT
HE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW VEERS TO MORE
WESTERLY AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOWS 61-68 WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STRONGER BL MIXING WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT...FOCUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AN COASTAL PLAIN.
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...OFFERING A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
SETTLES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN FALLS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA RESULT INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
THE EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE EC
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SETTLES AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY...AND DAILY HIGHS AT LEAST A COUPLE
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...IF NOT MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM SATURDAY...

MOSTLY IFR RANGE STRATUS --IN NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE
COOL SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC-- HAVE ENVELOPED
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SEPARATE LOW
OVERCAST TO THE NORTH FROM WARM AND VFR CONDITIONS...AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL/CLOUDY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
TODAY...WITH MERELY A GRADUAL RISE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS INTO THE 1500-
2500 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME EROSION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM THE EDGES MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO
VFR --MOST LIKELY AT FAY AND RWI-- FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT TRIAD TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CEILINGS WILL OTHERWISE LOWER ONCE AGAIN (OR RE-DEVELOP WHERE/IF
SCATTERING OCCURS) OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT PIEDMONT TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
OVER CENTRAL NC...MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301331
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
931 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM SAT...WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORN. MAY LIFT A BIT THRU AFTN BIT LIKELY TO LINGER THRU THE DAY.
MODELS CONT TO KEEP INLAND AREAS DRY THIS AFTN SO REMOVED THE
SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA.

PREV DISC...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NC AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
THROUGH SC AND THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH EARLY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL, BUT WILL
CONTINUE SC SHOWERS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND CLOUDY
SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND...AND LOW TO
MID 60S FOR THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...WITH NE/E FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WARM FRONT COULD HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE DEEP INLAND AND UP TOWARDS
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS, THOUGH
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...A GENERAL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
MODELS DEPICTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WELL INLAND SUNDAY BEFORE
PIVOTING TOWARD THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT LESS ON MONDAY...AN INLAND TROUGH
COUPLED WITH MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES
FORECAST AT -4 TO -6...WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND SPC HAS OUR AREA IN THE MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
MODEL DIFFERENCE CONTINUE IN PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES TUESDAY
AND THIS LEADS TO THE ECMWF BEING MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS...AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE INLAND LOW PRESSURE TRACK. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS AT 30-40 PCT LEVELS TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS ALONG WITH
CANADIAN SHOW ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NEAR OR JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A WETTER SCENARIO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR
THESE PERIODS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MID-LEVEL LOW
CLOSING OFF AND DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS DEEP CYCLONGENESIS ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER LOW. MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CEILINGS...MOST LOCATIONS
IFR/LIFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM SW TO NE
MID-MORNING...THEN PERSIST AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 3KFT. TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CEILINGS AGAIN DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THINK
MOST OF THE SUNDAY WILL BE VFR BUT CONDITIONS LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. A COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SAT...THE PERSISTENT NNE WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME 6 FT
SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS N OF HAT. MDLS SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH
SEAS SO HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF OCRACOKE THRU
EARLY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN LOWER OVER SRN WTRS.

PREV DISC...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 10-20KT...STRONGEST NORTH
OF OCRACOKE WITH SEAS 3-5FT...AND SEAS 2-3FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE WATERS. NE/E FLOW 10-15KT TODAY...STRONGER
ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 4125 AND THE GULF STREAM WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15KT AND GUSTS TO 20KT...AND SEAS 3-5FT NORTH
OF OCRACOKE AND 2-4FT SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH NE/E FLOW 10-15KT BECOMING SLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL AREAS OF 6 FOOT
SEAS WELL OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT BECOME N/NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AT
5-15 KNOTS. PER LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...SEAS SHOULD
NOT EXCEED 4-5 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KILM 301328
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
928 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT DRYING
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...BRINGING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...EXTENSIVE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO A COOL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...THIS CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN CHECK. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND COOLING AIR TEMPS
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...WILL PROMOTE MIST AND STRATUS
OVER NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH DAYBREAK. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN...AND ALSO
THAT UPSTREAM CIRRUS CONTINUES A THINNING TREND.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PROMPT
CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR FROM INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTY ACROSS
NE SC...EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE AIDED BY A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. COLUMN MOISTURE IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY ALOFT BUT THIS COULD
IN TURN HELP CONVECTION ENTRAIN DRY AIR TO BRING AN ELEVATED GUST
POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAN AN AXIS OF 0-1KM ENERGY
HELICITY INDICES IMPINGE OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PEAK HEATING. A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR ROTATING SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM FLORENCE TO HARTSVILLE TO DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION.

MAX TEMPS MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S INTERIOR NE SC...WITH MINS AT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY LOWS/MID 60S SE NC AND UPPER 60S NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN WEATHER CAPTION IS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS COLUMN MOISTURE RAMPS UP SUNDAY. A BOUNDARY N AND W OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MAY SEE STORM AND SHOWER INITIATION WHILE THE
STEERING FLOW POTENTIALLY GUIDES SOME OF THE CONVECTION INTO SE NC
AND NE SC. THE DAYTIME WARMING WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COAST INLAND. BECAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...SPC HAS HELD ONTO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SE NC AND PARTS OF NE SC. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S COAST AND LOW
80S INLAND.

ELEVATED COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH BRIEF MID
LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HEATING AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY
IN PROXIMITY TO SE NC WILL AGAIN PROMPT A CHANCE AT A MARGINALLY
STRONG TSTM. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY WILL
FATTEN LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOUT
THE AREA WE SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
POTENT SYSTEM AND THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN GOOD RAINFALL WITH
THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS RECENTLY. BY THURSDAY A FULL BLOWN OMEGA
PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING A GOOD PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING SW ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A VERY MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS
MANIFESTED ITSELF IN MVFR CIGS/TEMPO IFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES CURRENTLY SHOW LITTLE CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS
     SO EXPECT CIGS TO DIURNALLY IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SC TERMINALS. CIGS AND VSBYS RETURN TO A MVFR/IFR
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING/SURFACE BOUNDARIES/VORTICITY TODAY. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL OMIT IN TAFS FOR NOW.
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT FROM DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. MORNING OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE
AND NE TO E WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

SUB-ADVISORY BUT LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS A
SURGE OF NE-E WIND WORKS DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING...GUSTS TO 20
KT MAY BE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY TODAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING
WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT BEFORE EVENING IN THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND.
WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND TO SE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY HELPING
TO MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. NO
ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN MARINE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IN THIS WARM FLOW
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...A RADAR UPDATE
IS A SMART IDEA BEFORE VENTURING OUT. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 3-4 FT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY
BRIEFLY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED.
OVERALL EXPECT A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO
ECLIPSE TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN MUTED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301210
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
810 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --WITH COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTH...AND MUCH WARMER ONES TO THE SOUTH-- WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NC TODAY. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
FOLLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RESULT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM SATURDAY...

LOW OVERCAST IN NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...ON THE COOL
SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONT NOW DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NC. A RESULTANT WEDGE OF COOL/CLOUDY/STABLE AIR WILL EXTEND DOWN THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY...BENEATH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GOM TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE LOW CLOUDS MAY ERODE FROM THE EDGES...PARTICULARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLANK (IE. INVOF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE); AND THIS MAY ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO RETREAT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE HEART OF THE WEDGE/LOW OVERCAST OVER THE
NE PIEDMONT...TO 70S-NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT/SUBSIDENCE...MASS
CONVERGENCE AND THE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS INVOF THE FRONT -
MOSTLY JUST WEST OF/UPSTREAM OF CENTRAL NC. A WSW MEAN WIND WOULD
THEN ADVECT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT OF NC...THOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE AS THEY BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...AND REMOVED FROM THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY
AXIS...WITH NE EXTENT INTO THE STABLE WEDGE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT FROM ALBEMARLE AND
WADESBORO TO LAURINBURG...WHERE STORMS WOULD PROPAGATE IN A MORE ESE
DIRECTION INVOF THE FRONT. A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
EXIST THERE OWING TO ENHANCED EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AMIDST MODEST 25-35 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW - SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTI-CELL AND/OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STORM MODES.

TONIGHT: NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE ALREADY STABLE SURFACE LAYER WILL
CAUSE LOW CLOUD BASES TO FURTHER LOWER/RE-DEVELOP WHERE ANY BREAKS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RAN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING-
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND STATIC
STABILITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AS SUCH...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...SOME POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
LATE OWING TO MIXING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

A PORTION OF THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL EJECT
EASTWARD AND RACE ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...SHUNTING THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD
IN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ONGOING OVER SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
NC...OWING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...WILL LIKELY BLEED INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE
AMIDST PW OF 1.25-1.50".  CAPE GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE HIGHER IN THE
WEST..THOUGH THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MODEST...30-35KT ACROSS THE NORTH IN CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
MAIN LIMITATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF A
FOCUS...OUTSIDE IF A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT.  THUS..ITS HEARD TO
HAVE MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SEVERE STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 SE.

THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS INT
HE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW VEERS TO MORE
WESTERLY AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOWS 61-68 WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STRONGER BL MIXING WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT...FOCUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AN COASTAL PLAIN.
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...OFFERING A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
SETTLES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN FALLS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA RESULT INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
THE EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE EC
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SETTLES AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY...AND DAILY HIGHS AT LEAST A COUPLE
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...IF NOT MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM SATURDAY...

MOSTLY IFR RANGE STRATUS --IN NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE
COOL SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC-- HAVE ENVELOPED
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SEPARATE LOW
OVERCAST TO THE NORTH FROM WARM AND VFR CONDITIONS...AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL/CLOUDY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
TODAY...WITH MERELY A GRADUAL RISE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS INTO THE 1500-
2500 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME EROSION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM THE EDGES MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO
VFR --MOST LIKELY AT FAY AND RWI-- FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT TRIAD TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CEILINGS WILL OTHERWISE LOWER ONCE AGAIN (OR RE-DEVELOP WHERE/IF
SCATTERING OCCURS) OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT PIEDMONT TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
OVER CENTRAL NC...MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS62 KILM 301132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT.
SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA...WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT DRYING THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 629 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND COOLING AIR TEMPS
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...WILL PROMOTE MIST AND STRATUS
OVER NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH DAYBREAK. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN...AND ALSO
THAT UPSTREAM CIRRUS CONTINUES A THINNING TREND.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PROMPT
CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR FROM INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTY ACROSS
NE SC...EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE AIDED BY A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. COLUMN MOISTURE IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY ALOFT BUT THIS COULD
IN TURN HELP CONVECTION ENTRAIN DRY AIR TO BRING AN ELEVATED GUST
POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAN AN AXIS OF 0-1KM ENERGY
HELICITY INDICES IMPINGE OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PEAK HEATING. A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR ROTATING SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM FLORENCE TO HARTSVILLE TO DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION.

MAX TEMPS MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S INTERIOR NE SC...WITH MINS AT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY LOWS/MID 60S SE NC AND UPPER 60S NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN WEATHER CAPTION IS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS COLUMN MOISTURE RAMPS UP SUNDAY. A BOUNDARY N AND W OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MAY SEE STORM AND SHOWER INITIATION WHILE THE
STEERING FLOW POTENTIALLY GUIDES SOME OF THE CONVECTION INTO SE NC
AND NE SC. THE DAYTIME WARMING WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COAST INLAND. BECAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...SPC HAS HELD ONTO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SE NC AND PARTS OF NE SC. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S COAST AND LOW
80S INLAND.

ELEVATED COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH BRIEF MID
LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HEATING AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY
IN PROXIMITY TO SE NC WILL AGAIN PROMPT A CHANCE AT A MARGINALLY
STRONG TSTM. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY WILL
FATTEN LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOUT
THE AREA WE SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
POTENT SYSTEM AND THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN GOOD RAINFALL WITH
THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS RECENTLY. BY THURSDAY A FULL BLOWN OMEGA
PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING A GOOD PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING SW ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A VERY MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS
MANIFESTED ITSELF IN MVFR CIGS/TEMPO IFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES CURRENTLY SHOW LITTLE CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS
...SO EXPECT CIGS TO DIURNALLY IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SC TERMINALS. CIGS AND VSBYS RETURN TO A MVFR/IFR
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING/SURFACE BOUNDRIES/VORTICITY TODAY. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL OMIT IN TAFS FOR NOW.
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT FROM DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 629 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THE DAYBREAK UPDATES. THE ENERGY SPECTRUM SHOWS A MISH-MASH OF
BOTH LONGER PERIOD WAVES AND SHORT-PERIOD WIND-DERIVED WAVES THIS
MORNING AND THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
WIND-WAVE PORTION OF THE SPECTRUM.

SUB-ADVISORY BUT LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS A
SURGE OF NE-E WIND WORKS DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING...GUSTS TO 20
KT MAY BE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY TODAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING
WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT BEFORE EVENING IN THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND.
WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND TO SE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY HELPING
TO MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. NO
ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN MARINE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IN THIS WARM FLOW
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...A RADAR UPDATE
IS A SMART IDEA BEFORE VENTURING OUT. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 3-4 FT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY
BRIEFLY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED.
OVERALL EXPECT A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO
ECLIPSE TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN MUTED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR




000
FXUS62 KILM 301132
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT.
SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA...WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHT DRYING THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 629 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND COOLING AIR TEMPS
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...WILL PROMOTE MIST AND STRATUS
OVER NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH DAYBREAK. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN...AND ALSO
THAT UPSTREAM CIRRUS CONTINUES A THINNING TREND.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PROMPT
CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR FROM INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTY ACROSS
NE SC...EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE AIDED BY A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. COLUMN MOISTURE IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY ALOFT BUT THIS COULD
IN TURN HELP CONVECTION ENTRAIN DRY AIR TO BRING AN ELEVATED GUST
POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAN AN AXIS OF 0-1KM ENERGY
HELICITY INDICES IMPINGE OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PEAK HEATING. A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR ROTATING SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
AREAS FROM FLORENCE TO HARTSVILLE TO DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE
APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION.

MAX TEMPS MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S INTERIOR NE SC...WITH MINS AT
DAYBREAK SUNDAY LOWS/MID 60S SE NC AND UPPER 60S NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN WEATHER CAPTION IS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS COLUMN MOISTURE RAMPS UP SUNDAY. A BOUNDARY N AND W OF
THE AREA SUNDAY MAY SEE STORM AND SHOWER INITIATION WHILE THE
STEERING FLOW POTENTIALLY GUIDES SOME OF THE CONVECTION INTO SE NC
AND NE SC. THE DAYTIME WARMING WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COAST INLAND. BECAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...SPC HAS HELD ONTO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SE NC AND PARTS OF NE SC. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S COAST AND LOW
80S INLAND.

ELEVATED COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH BRIEF MID
LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HEATING AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY
IN PROXIMITY TO SE NC WILL AGAIN PROMPT A CHANCE AT A MARGINALLY
STRONG TSTM. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY WILL
FATTEN LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOUT
THE AREA WE SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
POTENT SYSTEM AND THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN GOOD RAINFALL WITH
THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS RECENTLY. BY THURSDAY A FULL BLOWN OMEGA
PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING A GOOD PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING SW ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A VERY MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS
MANIFESTED ITSELF IN MVFR CIGS/TEMPO IFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGES CURRENTLY SHOW LITTLE CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS
...SO EXPECT CIGS TO DIURNALLY IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SC TERMINALS. CIGS AND VSBYS RETURN TO A MVFR/IFR
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING/SURFACE BOUNDRIES/VORTICITY TODAY. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL OMIT IN TAFS FOR NOW.
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT FROM DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 629 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THE DAYBREAK UPDATES. THE ENERGY SPECTRUM SHOWS A MISH-MASH OF
BOTH LONGER PERIOD WAVES AND SHORT-PERIOD WIND-DERIVED WAVES THIS
MORNING AND THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
WIND-WAVE PORTION OF THE SPECTRUM.

SUB-ADVISORY BUT LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS A
SURGE OF NE-E WIND WORKS DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING...GUSTS TO 20
KT MAY BE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY TODAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING
WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT BEFORE EVENING IN THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND.
WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND TO SE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY HELPING
TO MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. NO
ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NEEDED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN MARINE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IN THIS WARM FLOW
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...A RADAR UPDATE
IS A SMART IDEA BEFORE VENTURING OUT. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 3-4 FT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY
BRIEFLY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED.
OVERALL EXPECT A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO
ECLIPSE TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN MUTED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR




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