Home > Products > State Listing > North Carolina Data
Latest:
 AFDRAH |  AFDILM |  AFDMHX |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KRAH 230226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM MONDAY...

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED 70 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS
AT FFC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. SPRINKLES OR BARELY
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN...ONES FALLING FROM MID LEVEL CEILINGS...WILL
RESULT THROUGH SUNRISE FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WHILE BOTH
PROXIMITY RAOB AND VWP DATA INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO ASSUME AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY TUE...AT WHICH TIME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FORCING WILL SUPPORT A GOOD TO LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN RAH CWFA.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY SHEARING  DURING
THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

EVEN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS SLIDE TO UNAVOIDABLE OBSCURITY AS
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT-
TUESDAY. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL SPECTRUM...IS NOW THE WETTER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE EC WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES:  RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)LATE TONIGHT... AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EVEN MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH AND UNDER
THE  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD DEVELOP WELL INLAND
AND MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST REFLECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE EC.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES THROUGH TUE. A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CENTRAL NC... COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD... WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN
NEAR FAY... PRIMARILY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR WITHIN THIS LIGHT RAIN... HOWEVER THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME... BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS AT FAY WILL STAY
VFR... DESPITE THE LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE... AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO HOLD ANY PRECIP AND SUB-VFR
CLOUDS/VSBYS OUT OF THESE TAF SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO HOLD OUT OF THE NORTHEAST UNDER 8 KTS TONIGHT AND 8-
12 KTS ON TUE.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED... UNCERTAINTY GROWS STARTING TUE EVENING...
AS IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL RAINFALL WILL MOVE.
BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME INLAND PENETRATION OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FAY/RWI/RDU AREAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT FAY TUE NIGHT/WED... BUT ARE MUCH LESS LIKELY AT
RDU/RWI. THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS WED
EVENING/NIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES. CIGS SHOULD
REBOUND TO VFR THU... DOMINATING THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MWS/CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM MONDAY...

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED 70 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS
AT FFC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. SPRINKLES OR BARELY
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN...ONES FALLING FROM MID LEVEL CEILINGS...WILL
RESULT THROUGH SUNRISE FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WHILE BOTH
PROXIMITY RAOB AND VWP DATA INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO ASSUME AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY TUE...AT WHICH TIME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FORCING WILL SUPPORT A GOOD TO LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN RAH CWFA.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY SHEARING  DURING
THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

EVEN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS SLIDE TO UNAVOIDABLE OBSCURITY AS
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT-
TUESDAY. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL SPECTRUM...IS NOW THE WETTER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE EC WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES:  RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)LATE TONIGHT... AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EVEN MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH AND UNDER
THE  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD DEVELOP WELL INLAND
AND MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST REFLECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE EC.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES THROUGH TUE. A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CENTRAL NC... COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD... WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN
NEAR FAY... PRIMARILY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR WITHIN THIS LIGHT RAIN... HOWEVER THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME... BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS AT FAY WILL STAY
VFR... DESPITE THE LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE... AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO HOLD ANY PRECIP AND SUB-VFR
CLOUDS/VSBYS OUT OF THESE TAF SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO HOLD OUT OF THE NORTHEAST UNDER 8 KTS TONIGHT AND 8-
12 KTS ON TUE.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED... UNCERTAINTY GROWS STARTING TUE EVENING...
AS IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL RAINFALL WILL MOVE.
BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME INLAND PENETRATION OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FAY/RWI/RDU AREAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT FAY TUE NIGHT/WED... BUT ARE MUCH LESS LIKELY AT
RDU/RWI. THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS WED
EVENING/NIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES. CIGS SHOULD
REBOUND TO VFR THU... DOMINATING THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MWS/CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM MONDAY...

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED 70 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS
AT FFC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. SPRINKLES OR BARELY
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN...ONES FALLING FROM MID LEVEL CEILINGS...WILL
RESULT THROUGH SUNRISE FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WHILE BOTH
PROXIMITY RAOB AND VWP DATA INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO ASSUME AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY TUE...AT WHICH TIME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FORCING WILL SUPPORT A GOOD TO LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN RAH CWFA.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY SHEARING  DURING
THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

EVEN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS SLIDE TO UNAVOIDABLE OBSCURITY AS
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT-
TUESDAY. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL SPECTRUM...IS NOW THE WETTER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE EC WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES:  RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)LATE TONIGHT... AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EVEN MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH AND UNDER
THE  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD DEVELOP WELL INLAND
AND MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST REFLECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE EC.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES THROUGH TUE. A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CENTRAL NC... COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD... WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN
NEAR FAY... PRIMARILY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR WITHIN THIS LIGHT RAIN... HOWEVER THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME... BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS AT FAY WILL STAY
VFR... DESPITE THE LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE... AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO HOLD ANY PRECIP AND SUB-VFR
CLOUDS/VSBYS OUT OF THESE TAF SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO HOLD OUT OF THE NORTHEAST UNDER 8 KTS TONIGHT AND 8-
12 KTS ON TUE.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED... UNCERTAINTY GROWS STARTING TUE EVENING...
AS IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL RAINFALL WILL MOVE.
BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME INLAND PENETRATION OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FAY/RWI/RDU AREAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT FAY TUE NIGHT/WED... BUT ARE MUCH LESS LIKELY AT
RDU/RWI. THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS WED
EVENING/NIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES. CIGS SHOULD
REBOUND TO VFR THU... DOMINATING THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MWS/CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM MONDAY...

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED 70 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS
AT FFC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. SPRINKLES OR BARELY
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN...ONES FALLING FROM MID LEVEL CEILINGS...WILL
RESULT THROUGH SUNRISE FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. WHILE BOTH
PROXIMITY RAOB AND VWP DATA INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO ASSUME AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY TUE...AT WHICH TIME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FORCING WILL SUPPORT A GOOD TO LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN RAH CWFA.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY SHEARING  DURING
THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

EVEN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS SLIDE TO UNAVOIDABLE OBSCURITY AS
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT-
TUESDAY. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL SPECTRUM...IS NOW THE WETTER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE EC WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES:  RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)LATE TONIGHT... AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EVEN MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH AND UNDER
THE  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD DEVELOP WELL INLAND
AND MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST REFLECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE EC.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES THROUGH TUE. A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CENTRAL NC... COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD... WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN
NEAR FAY... PRIMARILY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR WITHIN THIS LIGHT RAIN... HOWEVER THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME... BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS AT FAY WILL STAY
VFR... DESPITE THE LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE... AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO HOLD ANY PRECIP AND SUB-VFR
CLOUDS/VSBYS OUT OF THESE TAF SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO HOLD OUT OF THE NORTHEAST UNDER 8 KTS TONIGHT AND 8-
12 KTS ON TUE.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED... UNCERTAINTY GROWS STARTING TUE EVENING...
AS IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL RAINFALL WILL MOVE.
BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME INLAND PENETRATION OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FAY/RWI/RDU AREAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT FAY TUE NIGHT/WED... BUT ARE MUCH LESS LIKELY AT
RDU/RWI. THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS WED
EVENING/NIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES. CIGS SHOULD
REBOUND TO VFR THU... DOMINATING THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MWS/CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 230131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
931 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. VERY
INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A BATTLE WILL BE GOING
ON BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH AND A DECELERATING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT OFF UPPER LOW LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH HAS SENT A DRY INTRUSION INTO NORTH
CAROLINA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S MOUNTAINS AND 50S PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH
MOISTURE ONSHORE AND BACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW STALLED OFFSHORE AS EXPECTED.
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER GA/SC IS
SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. INITIALLY THINK
THE DRY AIR WILL ERODE THIS MOISTURE WITH ANY REDEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THUS EXPECTING MAINLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THEN LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
MORE ESTABLISHED I WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN IMPACTING SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS. WE
ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
AND HOW FAR INLAND THE STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND (IF AT ALL).
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NO RAIN
NORTH AND HIGH CHANCE SOUTH LATE.

THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS RIDING THE HIGH SIDE OF
MOS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. LOOKS LIKE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM AND WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LOWER LATE ALONG WITH INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PRODUCING STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH GFS TRENDED WETTER WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR WEST...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND WHERE THETA-E/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET SCENARIO. CONT TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLN AND GFS IS COMING INTO LINE AS WELL. A CLOSED UPR LOW
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUE NIGHT
AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND. RAIN
SHOULD SHOULD ONGOING TUE EVENING ACRS COASTAL AREAS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND
STRENGTHENING OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WILL CONT HIGH
CHANCE POPS. MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

APRS THAT CLOSED LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONT FCST OF
HIGH CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
SLIM WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. LATE TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 3000
FT EXCEPT FOR KOAJ/KEWN WHICH COULD SEE MVFR BASES DEVELOP BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP AND
COULD AFFECT KOAJ AND PERHAPS KEWN TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...WITH FRONT NOW STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THERE IS A TEMPORARY LULL IN WINDS/SEAS...BUOY SITES
REPORTING MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AT 3 TO 4 FEET. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH TO
THE NORTH AND FRONT OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT BY LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT
09Z SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AS NORTHEAST WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A WET SCENARIO EXPECTED WITH INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8
FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND
WED AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WILL CALL FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/CTC/JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 230131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
931 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. VERY
INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A BATTLE WILL BE GOING
ON BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH AND A DECELERATING
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT OFF UPPER LOW LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH HAS SENT A DRY INTRUSION INTO NORTH
CAROLINA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S MOUNTAINS AND 50S PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH
MOISTURE ONSHORE AND BACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW STALLED OFFSHORE AS EXPECTED.
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER GA/SC IS
SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. INITIALLY THINK
THE DRY AIR WILL ERODE THIS MOISTURE WITH ANY REDEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THUS EXPECTING MAINLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THEN LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
MORE ESTABLISHED I WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN IMPACTING SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS. WE
ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
AND HOW FAR INLAND THE STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND (IF AT ALL).
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NO RAIN
NORTH AND HIGH CHANCE SOUTH LATE.

THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS RIDING THE HIGH SIDE OF
MOS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. LOOKS LIKE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM AND WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO LOWER LATE ALONG WITH INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PRODUCING STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH GFS TRENDED WETTER WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR WEST...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND WHERE THETA-E/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET SCENARIO. CONT TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLN AND GFS IS COMING INTO LINE AS WELL. A CLOSED UPR LOW
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUE NIGHT
AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND. RAIN
SHOULD SHOULD ONGOING TUE EVENING ACRS COASTAL AREAS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND
STRENGTHENING OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WILL CONT HIGH
CHANCE POPS. MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

APRS THAT CLOSED LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONT FCST OF
HIGH CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
SLIM WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. LATE TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 3000
FT EXCEPT FOR KOAJ/KEWN WHICH COULD SEE MVFR BASES DEVELOP BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP AND
COULD AFFECT KOAJ AND PERHAPS KEWN TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...WITH FRONT NOW STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THERE IS A TEMPORARY LULL IN WINDS/SEAS...BUOY SITES
REPORTING MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AT 3 TO 4 FEET. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH TO
THE NORTH AND FRONT OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT BY LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT
09Z SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AS NORTHEAST WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A WET SCENARIO EXPECTED WITH INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8
FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND
WED AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WILL CALL FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/CTC/JME






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KILM 230105
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
905 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BECOME THE MAINSTAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK. A STALLED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
KEEPING THE THREAT OF STORMS OVER LAND TO A MINIMUM. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTH THIS MID EVE
ALTHOUGH DE-ACCELERATING DUE TO SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SC
INDUCED BY LOCALIZED BUT STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
UPPER CIRCULATION. THE SURFACE WAVE YANKED A DEWPOINT GRADIENT
BACK NORTHWARD BUT PRESSURE CONTOURS IDENTIFY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR SW INTO THE CHARLESTON SC AREA. MEANWHILE
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO USHER IN A
SENSIBLY DIFFERENT AIR-MASS...WAS POSITIONED DIAGONALLY ACROSS
VIRGINIA INTO THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE VERY WESTERN CAROLINAS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WERE MOVING INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF
VIRGINIA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S FROM BOONE TO ASHEVILLE NC.

WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING NE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EMBEDDED WITH HEAVIER SHOWER POCKETS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE ENERGETIC UPPER FEATURE TRIGGERING
THE RAIN ONSET...WHOSE CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND SHORT
FUSE HAZARD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW BELOW 5 PERCENT FOR CONVECTION
THREATS. ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED MAINLY STAYING ALIGNED WITH
CHANGEABLE TRENDS IN T/TD/RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PATTERN ALOFT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A
BOTTLE NECK ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN UNISON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THRU WEDNESDAY. POSITIONING OF THIS CLOSED
LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN S GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. JUST OFFSHORE AND LINING
UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WILL LIE A COASTAL TROF/FRONT. DURING THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE VIA MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL BE LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM-TYPE LIGHT RAINS. A
SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN LIKELY TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS.
THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PCPN WILL GET
PUSHED INLAND. HAVE INDICATED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES ONSHORE. AS FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING PCPN THREAT
AS WELL AS THE PRESENT STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS FA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COOL AIR WEDGE PLUS A COASTAL TROUGH SPELLS
SOME RATHER UNSETTLED AND PROBABLY PRETTY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY BE SHOWING THEIR
BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO THAT INCREASES WITH TIME SINCE THEY PORTRAY
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO BOTH DAYS...WHILE KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70 TOMORROW
IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS OFFERING UP CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL KEEP
FORECAST CLOSER TO CURRENT VALUES OF MID 70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE GFS HAS NOW
BACKED OFF ALMOST COMPLETELY WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF QPF. THIS
IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE GEM AND SO MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPRESSING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH LIKELY LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TECHNICALLY BE NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAKLY COOL THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. THE
LESSER CLOUD COVER MEANWHILE COULD BRING SOME COOLER NIGHTS WHEN
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD...WITH
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REPLACED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BRINGING EVERYONE DOWN TO IFR.
FELL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AT THE JUNCTION...BUT KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
TUESDAY...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRIES TO WAVE THE FRONT
BACK ONSHORE...HOWEVER FEEL MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CWA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED THIS EVENING FOR 20-25
KT NE WINDS AND 4-7 FOOT SEAS SET TO ARRIVE FROM AROUND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD. FOR TONIGHT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH
THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND
TURN FROM A NE TRAJECTORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THRU THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROF/FRONT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC PG
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NE TO ENE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SOMEWHAT TOO EARLY FOR THE DAYSHIFT...WILL LET EITHER THE EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT PUT UP THE EXTENDED SCA. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BUILD AND HOLD IN THE 3 TO 7 FOOT RANGE DEPENDING ON ONES LOCATION
IN RELATION TO THE COASTLINE CONFIGURATION. OVERALL...SIG SEAS
WILL BECOME MAINLY A FUNCTION OF NE TO ENE WIND WAVES EXHIBITING
5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-3 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8+
SECOND PERIODS WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
REGION VERY CLOSE TO THE CUSP OF SCEC HEADLINES VS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE MORE SERIOUS LATTER HEADLINE APPEARS IN THE OFFERING
FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SCEC COME SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL THAT WILL
COEXIST WITH THE WIND WAVES...BUT BOTH WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
SHADOWING LOCALLY OFF OF HATTERAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...DOUGH
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...ROSS








000
FXUS62 KILM 230105
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
905 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BECOME THE MAINSTAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK. A STALLED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
KEEPING THE THREAT OF STORMS OVER LAND TO A MINIMUM. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTH THIS MID EVE
ALTHOUGH DE-ACCELERATING DUE TO SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SC
INDUCED BY LOCALIZED BUT STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
UPPER CIRCULATION. THE SURFACE WAVE YANKED A DEWPOINT GRADIENT
BACK NORTHWARD BUT PRESSURE CONTOURS IDENTIFY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR SW INTO THE CHARLESTON SC AREA. MEANWHILE
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO USHER IN A
SENSIBLY DIFFERENT AIR-MASS...WAS POSITIONED DIAGONALLY ACROSS
VIRGINIA INTO THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE VERY WESTERN CAROLINAS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WERE MOVING INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF
VIRGINIA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S FROM BOONE TO ASHEVILLE NC.

WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING NE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EMBEDDED WITH HEAVIER SHOWER POCKETS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL THE ENERGETIC UPPER FEATURE TRIGGERING
THE RAIN ONSET...WHOSE CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND SHORT
FUSE HAZARD POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW BELOW 5 PERCENT FOR CONVECTION
THREATS. ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED MAINLY STAYING ALIGNED WITH
CHANGEABLE TRENDS IN T/TD/RH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PATTERN ALOFT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A
BOTTLE NECK ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN UNISON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THRU WEDNESDAY. POSITIONING OF THIS CLOSED
LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN S GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. JUST OFFSHORE AND LINING
UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WILL LIE A COASTAL TROF/FRONT. DURING THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE VIA MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL BE LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM-TYPE LIGHT RAINS. A
SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN LIKELY TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS.
THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PCPN WILL GET
PUSHED INLAND. HAVE INDICATED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES ONSHORE. AS FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING PCPN THREAT
AS WELL AS THE PRESENT STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS FA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COOL AIR WEDGE PLUS A COASTAL TROUGH SPELLS
SOME RATHER UNSETTLED AND PROBABLY PRETTY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY BE SHOWING THEIR
BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO THAT INCREASES WITH TIME SINCE THEY PORTRAY
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO BOTH DAYS...WHILE KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70 TOMORROW
IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS OFFERING UP CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL KEEP
FORECAST CLOSER TO CURRENT VALUES OF MID 70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE GFS HAS NOW
BACKED OFF ALMOST COMPLETELY WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF QPF. THIS
IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE GEM AND SO MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPRESSING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH LIKELY LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TECHNICALLY BE NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAKLY COOL THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. THE
LESSER CLOUD COVER MEANWHILE COULD BRING SOME COOLER NIGHTS WHEN
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD...WITH
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REPLACED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BRINGING EVERYONE DOWN TO IFR.
FELL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AT THE JUNCTION...BUT KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
TUESDAY...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRIES TO WAVE THE FRONT
BACK ONSHORE...HOWEVER FEEL MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CWA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED THIS EVENING FOR 20-25
KT NE WINDS AND 4-7 FOOT SEAS SET TO ARRIVE FROM AROUND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD. FOR TONIGHT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH
THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND
TURN FROM A NE TRAJECTORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THRU THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROF/FRONT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC PG
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NE TO ENE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SOMEWHAT TOO EARLY FOR THE DAYSHIFT...WILL LET EITHER THE EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT PUT UP THE EXTENDED SCA. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BUILD AND HOLD IN THE 3 TO 7 FOOT RANGE DEPENDING ON ONES LOCATION
IN RELATION TO THE COASTLINE CONFIGURATION. OVERALL...SIG SEAS
WILL BECOME MAINLY A FUNCTION OF NE TO ENE WIND WAVES EXHIBITING
5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-3 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8+
SECOND PERIODS WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
REGION VERY CLOSE TO THE CUSP OF SCEC HEADLINES VS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE MORE SERIOUS LATTER HEADLINE APPEARS IN THE OFFERING
FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SCEC COME SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL THAT WILL
COEXIST WITH THE WIND WAVES...BUT BOTH WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
SHADOWING LOCALLY OFF OF HATTERAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...DOUGH
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...ROSS









000
FXUS62 KRAH 222333
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY SHEARING  DURING
THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

EVEN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS SLIDE TO UNAVOIDABLE OBSCURITY AS
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT-
TUESDAY. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL SPECTRUM...IS NOW THE WETTER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE EC WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES:  RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)LATE TONIGHT... AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EVEN MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH AND UNDER
THE  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD DEVELOP WELL INLAND
AND MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST REFLECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE EC.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES THROUGH TUE. A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CENTRAL NC... COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD... WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN
NEAR FAY... PRIMARILY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE.
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR WITHIN THIS LIGHT RAIN... HOWEVER THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME... BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS AT FAY WILL STAY
VFR... DESPITE THE LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE... AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF
A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO HOLD ANY PRECIP AND SUB-VFR
CLOUDS/VSBYS OUT OF THESE TAF SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO HOLD OUT OF THE NORTHEAST UNDER 8 KTS TONIGHT AND 8-
12 KTS ON TUE.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED... UNCERTAINTY GROWS STARTING TUE EVENING...
AS IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL RAINFALL WILL MOVE.
BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME INLAND PENETRATION OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FAY/RWI/RDU AREAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT FAY TUE NIGHT/WED... BUT ARE MUCH LESS LIKELY AT
RDU/RWI. THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS WED
EVENING/NIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES. CIGS SHOULD
REBOUND TO VFR THU... DOMINATING THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



000
FXUS62 KMHX 222233
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
633 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A BATTLE WILL BE GOING ON BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SOUTH AND A DECELERATING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH HAS SENT A DRY
INTRUSION INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY WHILE THE CUT OFF UPPER
LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE AND BACK ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW
STALLED OFFSHORE AS EXPECTED. MOISTURE FROM DEEP CONVECTION OVER
GA/SC IS SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
INITIALLY THINK THE DRY AIR WILL DEFLECT THIS MOISTURE EAST
KEEPING IT PRIMARILY JUST OFF THE COAST AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THEN LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
MORE ESTABLISHED I WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN IMPACTING SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS.
WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
AND HOW FAR INLAND THE STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND (IF AT ALL).
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NO RAIN
NORTH AND HIGH CHANCE SOUTH LATE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT. CURRENT FORECAST IS
RIDING THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON
EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME CALM. THEN CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH WINDS
PRODUCING STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH GFS TRENDED WETTER WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR WEST...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND WHERE THETA-E/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET SCENARIO. CONT TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLN AND GFS IS COMING INTO LINE AS WELL. A CLOSED UPR LOW
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUE NIGHT
AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND. RAIN
SHOULD SHOULD ONGOING TUE EVENING ACRS COASTAL AREAS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND
STRENGTHENING OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WILL CONT HIGH
CHANCE POPS. MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

APRS THAT CLOSED LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONT FCST OF
HIGH CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
SLIM WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. LATE TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 3000
FT EXCEPT FOR KOAJ/KEWN WHICH COULD SEE MVFR BASES DEVELOP BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP AND
COULD AFFECT KOAJ AND PERHAPS KEWN TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...WITH FRONT NOW STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THERE IS A TEMPORARY LULL IN WINDS/SEAS...BUOY SITES
REPORTING MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3
TO 4 FEET. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND FRONT OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE
RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT 09Z SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF OREGON INLET
AS NORTHEAST WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A WET SCENARIO EXPECTED WITH INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8
FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND
WED AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WILL CALL FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/CTC/JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 222233
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
633 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A BATTLE WILL BE GOING ON BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SOUTH AND A DECELERATING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH HAS SENT A DRY
INTRUSION INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY WHILE THE CUT OFF UPPER
LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE AND BACK ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW
STALLED OFFSHORE AS EXPECTED. MOISTURE FROM DEEP CONVECTION OVER
GA/SC IS SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
INITIALLY THINK THE DRY AIR WILL DEFLECT THIS MOISTURE EAST
KEEPING IT PRIMARILY JUST OFF THE COAST AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THEN LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
MORE ESTABLISHED I WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN IMPACTING SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS.
WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
AND HOW FAR INLAND THE STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND (IF AT ALL).
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NO RAIN
NORTH AND HIGH CHANCE SOUTH LATE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT. CURRENT FORECAST IS
RIDING THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON
EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOOKS LIKE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME CALM. THEN CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH WINDS
PRODUCING STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH GFS TRENDED WETTER WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR WEST...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND WHERE THETA-E/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET SCENARIO. CONT TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLN AND GFS IS COMING INTO LINE AS WELL. A CLOSED UPR LOW
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUE NIGHT
AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND. RAIN
SHOULD SHOULD ONGOING TUE EVENING ACRS COASTAL AREAS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND
STRENGTHENING OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WILL CONT HIGH
CHANCE POPS. MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

APRS THAT CLOSED LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONT FCST OF
HIGH CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
SLIM WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY VFR FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. LATE TONIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 3000
FT EXCEPT FOR KOAJ/KEWN WHICH COULD SEE MVFR BASES DEVELOP BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP AND
COULD AFFECT KOAJ AND PERHAPS KEWN TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...WITH FRONT NOW STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THERE IS A TEMPORARY LULL IN WINDS/SEAS...BUOY SITES
REPORTING MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3
TO 4 FEET. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND FRONT OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE
RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT 09Z SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF OREGON INLET
AS NORTHEAST WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A WET SCENARIO EXPECTED WITH INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8
FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND
WED AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WILL CALL FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/CTC/JME






000
FXUS62 KILM 222017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BECOME THE MAINSTAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK. A STALLED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
KEEPING THE THREAT OF STORMS OVER LAND TO A MINIMUM. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AS
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. ANY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AT
LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. THIS LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. SEVERAL FACTORS
SEEM TO HAVE COME TOGETHER TO FORECAST A WET OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FIRST THERE IS A DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO VIA WATER VAPOR. SECOND...THE OMEGA WILL COME IN SEVERAL
FORMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STARTING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...SOME
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS IN THE 209-300K LAYER. MOVING
UP...SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER.
DIFLUENCE EXISTS AT THE 500MB LAYER AND FINALLY...A STRONG JET AT
300MB WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AND THE FAVORABLE REGIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS MAY ECLIPSE ONE HALF INCH
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EXTREME COASTAL AREAS BUT WILL OTHERWISE
END UP BETWEEN ONE TENTH INLAND TO ONE HALF ELSEWHERE.

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ADDRESS THE CLOUD COVER COOLED READINGS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 50S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PATTERN ALOFT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A
BOTTLE NECK ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN UNISON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THRU WEDNESDAY. POSITIONING OF THIS CLOSED
LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN S GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. JUST OFFSHORE AND LINING
UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WILL LIE A COASTAL TROF/FRONT. DURING THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE VIA MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL BE LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM-TYPE LIGHT RAINS. A
SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN LIKELY TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS.
THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PCPN WILL GET
PUSHED INLAND. HAVE INDICATED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES ONSHORE. AS FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING PCPN THREAT
AS WELL AS THE PRESENT STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS FA THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COOL AIR WEDGE PLUS A COASTAL TROUGH SPELLS
SOME RATHER UNSETTLED AND PROBABLY PRETTY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY BE SHOWING THEIR
BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO THAT INCREASES WITH TIME SINCE THEY PORTRAY
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO BOTH DAYS...WHILE KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70 TOMORROW
IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS OFFERING UP CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL KEEP
FORECAST CLOSER TO CURRENT VALUES OF MID 70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE GFS HAS NOW
BACKED OFF ALMOST COMPLETELY WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF QPF. THIS
IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE GEM AND SO MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPRESSING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH LIKELY LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TECHNICALLY BE NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAKLY COOL THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. THE
LESSER CLOUD COVER MEANWHILE COULD BRING SOME COOLER NIGHTS WHEN
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD...WITH
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REPLACED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BRINGING EVERYONE DOWN TO IFR.
FELL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AT THE JUNCTION...BUT KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
TUESDAY...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRIES TO WAVE THE FRONT
BACK ONSHORE...HOWEVER FEEL MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CWA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH ABOUT 10-12
KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SEE A ROBUST 15 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD FROM AROUND THE CURRENT 2-3 FEET TO 3-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THRU THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROF/FRONT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC PG
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NE TO ENE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SOMEWHAT TOO EARLY FOR THE DAYSHIFT...WILL LET EITHER THE EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT PUT UP THE EXTENDED SCA. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BUILD AND HOLD IN THE 3 TO 7 FOOT RANGE DEPENDING ON ONES LOCATION
IN RELATION TO THE COASTLINE CONFIGURATION. OVERALL...SIG SEAS
WILL BECOME MAINLY A FUNCTION OF NE TO ENE WIND WAVES EXHIBITING
5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-3 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8+
SECOND PERIODS WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
REGION VERY CLOSE TO THE CUSP OF SCEC HEADLINES VS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE MORE SERIOUS LATTER HEADLINE APPEARS IN THE OFFERING
FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SCEC COME SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL THAT WILL
COEXIST WITH THE WIND WAVES...BUT BOTH WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
SHADOWING LOCALLY OFF OF HATTERAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 222017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BECOME THE MAINSTAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK. A STALLED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
KEEPING THE THREAT OF STORMS OVER LAND TO A MINIMUM. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AS
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. ANY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AT
LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. THIS LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. SEVERAL FACTORS
SEEM TO HAVE COME TOGETHER TO FORECAST A WET OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FIRST THERE IS A DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO VIA WATER VAPOR. SECOND...THE OMEGA WILL COME IN SEVERAL
FORMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STARTING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...SOME
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS IN THE 209-300K LAYER. MOVING
UP...SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER.
DIFLUENCE EXISTS AT THE 500MB LAYER AND FINALLY...A STRONG JET AT
300MB WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AND THE FAVORABLE REGIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS MAY ECLIPSE ONE HALF INCH
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EXTREME COASTAL AREAS BUT WILL OTHERWISE
END UP BETWEEN ONE TENTH INLAND TO ONE HALF ELSEWHERE.

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ADDRESS THE CLOUD COVER COOLED READINGS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 50S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PATTERN ALOFT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A
BOTTLE NECK ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN UNISON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THRU WEDNESDAY. POSITIONING OF THIS CLOSED
LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN S GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. JUST OFFSHORE AND LINING
UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WILL LIE A COASTAL TROF/FRONT. DURING THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE VIA MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL BE LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM-TYPE LIGHT RAINS. A
SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN LIKELY TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS.
THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PCPN WILL GET
PUSHED INLAND. HAVE INDICATED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES ONSHORE. AS FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING PCPN THREAT
AS WELL AS THE PRESENT STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS FA THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COOL AIR WEDGE PLUS A COASTAL TROUGH SPELLS
SOME RATHER UNSETTLED AND PROBABLY PRETTY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY BE SHOWING THEIR
BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO THAT INCREASES WITH TIME SINCE THEY PORTRAY
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO BOTH DAYS...WHILE KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70 TOMORROW
IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS OFFERING UP CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL KEEP
FORECAST CLOSER TO CURRENT VALUES OF MID 70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE GFS HAS NOW
BACKED OFF ALMOST COMPLETELY WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF QPF. THIS
IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE GEM AND SO MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPRESSING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH LIKELY LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TECHNICALLY BE NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAKLY COOL THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. THE
LESSER CLOUD COVER MEANWHILE COULD BRING SOME COOLER NIGHTS WHEN
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD...WITH
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REPLACED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BRINGING EVERYONE DOWN TO IFR.
FELL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AT THE JUNCTION...BUT KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
TUESDAY...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRIES TO WAVE THE FRONT
BACK ONSHORE...HOWEVER FEEL MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CWA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH ABOUT 10-12
KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SEE A ROBUST 15 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD FROM AROUND THE CURRENT 2-3 FEET TO 3-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THRU THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROF/FRONT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC PG
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NE TO ENE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SOMEWHAT TOO EARLY FOR THE DAYSHIFT...WILL LET EITHER THE EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT PUT UP THE EXTENDED SCA. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BUILD AND HOLD IN THE 3 TO 7 FOOT RANGE DEPENDING ON ONES LOCATION
IN RELATION TO THE COASTLINE CONFIGURATION. OVERALL...SIG SEAS
WILL BECOME MAINLY A FUNCTION OF NE TO ENE WIND WAVES EXHIBITING
5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-3 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8+
SECOND PERIODS WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
REGION VERY CLOSE TO THE CUSP OF SCEC HEADLINES VS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE MORE SERIOUS LATTER HEADLINE APPEARS IN THE OFFERING
FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SCEC COME SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL THAT WILL
COEXIST WITH THE WIND WAVES...BUT BOTH WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
SHADOWING LOCALLY OFF OF HATTERAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 222017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BECOME THE MAINSTAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK. A STALLED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
KEEPING THE THREAT OF STORMS OVER LAND TO A MINIMUM. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AS
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. ANY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AT
LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. THIS LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. SEVERAL FACTORS
SEEM TO HAVE COME TOGETHER TO FORECAST A WET OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FIRST THERE IS A DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO VIA WATER VAPOR. SECOND...THE OMEGA WILL COME IN SEVERAL
FORMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STARTING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...SOME
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS IN THE 209-300K LAYER. MOVING
UP...SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER.
DIFLUENCE EXISTS AT THE 500MB LAYER AND FINALLY...A STRONG JET AT
300MB WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AND THE FAVORABLE REGIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS MAY ECLIPSE ONE HALF INCH
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EXTREME COASTAL AREAS BUT WILL OTHERWISE
END UP BETWEEN ONE TENTH INLAND TO ONE HALF ELSEWHERE.

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ADDRESS THE CLOUD COVER COOLED READINGS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 50S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PATTERN ALOFT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A
BOTTLE NECK ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN UNISON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THRU WEDNESDAY. POSITIONING OF THIS CLOSED
LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN S GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. JUST OFFSHORE AND LINING
UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WILL LIE A COASTAL TROF/FRONT. DURING THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE VIA MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL BE LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM-TYPE LIGHT RAINS. A
SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN LIKELY TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS.
THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PCPN WILL GET
PUSHED INLAND. HAVE INDICATED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES ONSHORE. AS FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING PCPN THREAT
AS WELL AS THE PRESENT STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS FA THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COOL AIR WEDGE PLUS A COASTAL TROUGH SPELLS
SOME RATHER UNSETTLED AND PROBABLY PRETTY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY BE SHOWING THEIR
BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO THAT INCREASES WITH TIME SINCE THEY PORTRAY
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO BOTH DAYS...WHILE KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70 TOMORROW
IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS OFFERING UP CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL KEEP
FORECAST CLOSER TO CURRENT VALUES OF MID 70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE GFS HAS NOW
BACKED OFF ALMOST COMPLETELY WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF QPF. THIS
IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE GEM AND SO MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPRESSING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH LIKELY LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TECHNICALLY BE NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAKLY COOL THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. THE
LESSER CLOUD COVER MEANWHILE COULD BRING SOME COOLER NIGHTS WHEN
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD...WITH
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REPLACED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BRINGING EVERYONE DOWN TO IFR.
FELL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AT THE JUNCTION...BUT KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
TUESDAY...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRIES TO WAVE THE FRONT
BACK ONSHORE...HOWEVER FEEL MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CWA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH ABOUT 10-12
KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SEE A ROBUST 15 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD FROM AROUND THE CURRENT 2-3 FEET TO 3-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THRU THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROF/FRONT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC PG
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NE TO ENE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SOMEWHAT TOO EARLY FOR THE DAYSHIFT...WILL LET EITHER THE EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT PUT UP THE EXTENDED SCA. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BUILD AND HOLD IN THE 3 TO 7 FOOT RANGE DEPENDING ON ONES LOCATION
IN RELATION TO THE COASTLINE CONFIGURATION. OVERALL...SIG SEAS
WILL BECOME MAINLY A FUNCTION OF NE TO ENE WIND WAVES EXHIBITING
5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-3 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8+
SECOND PERIODS WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
REGION VERY CLOSE TO THE CUSP OF SCEC HEADLINES VS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE MORE SERIOUS LATTER HEADLINE APPEARS IN THE OFFERING
FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SCEC COME SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL THAT WILL
COEXIST WITH THE WIND WAVES...BUT BOTH WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
SHADOWING LOCALLY OFF OF HATTERAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 222017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
417 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BECOME THE MAINSTAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK. A STALLED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
KEEPING THE THREAT OF STORMS OVER LAND TO A MINIMUM. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AS
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. ANY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AT
LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. THIS LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. SEVERAL FACTORS
SEEM TO HAVE COME TOGETHER TO FORECAST A WET OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FIRST THERE IS A DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO VIA WATER VAPOR. SECOND...THE OMEGA WILL COME IN SEVERAL
FORMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STARTING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...SOME
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS IN THE 209-300K LAYER. MOVING
UP...SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER.
DIFLUENCE EXISTS AT THE 500MB LAYER AND FINALLY...A STRONG JET AT
300MB WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AND THE FAVORABLE REGIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS MAY ECLIPSE ONE HALF INCH
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EXTREME COASTAL AREAS BUT WILL OTHERWISE
END UP BETWEEN ONE TENTH INLAND TO ONE HALF ELSEWHERE.

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ADDRESS THE CLOUD COVER COOLED READINGS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 50S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PATTERN ALOFT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A
BOTTLE NECK ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN UNISON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THRU WEDNESDAY. POSITIONING OF THIS CLOSED
LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN S GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. JUST OFFSHORE AND LINING
UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WILL LIE A COASTAL TROF/FRONT. DURING THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE VIA MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL BE LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM-TYPE LIGHT RAINS. A
SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN LIKELY TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS.
THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PCPN WILL GET
PUSHED INLAND. HAVE INDICATED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES ONSHORE. AS FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING PCPN THREAT
AS WELL AS THE PRESENT STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS FA THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COOL AIR WEDGE PLUS A COASTAL TROUGH SPELLS
SOME RATHER UNSETTLED AND PROBABLY PRETTY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY BE SHOWING THEIR
BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO THAT INCREASES WITH TIME SINCE THEY PORTRAY
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO BOTH DAYS...WHILE KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70 TOMORROW
IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS OFFERING UP CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL KEEP
FORECAST CLOSER TO CURRENT VALUES OF MID 70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE GFS HAS NOW
BACKED OFF ALMOST COMPLETELY WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF QPF. THIS
IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE GEM AND SO MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPRESSING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH LIKELY LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TECHNICALLY BE NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAKLY COOL THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. THE
LESSER CLOUD COVER MEANWHILE COULD BRING SOME COOLER NIGHTS WHEN
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD...WITH
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REPLACED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BRINGING EVERYONE DOWN TO IFR.
FELL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AT THE JUNCTION...BUT KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
TUESDAY...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRIES TO WAVE THE FRONT
BACK ONSHORE...HOWEVER FEEL MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CWA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH ABOUT 10-12
KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SEE A ROBUST 15 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD FROM AROUND THE CURRENT 2-3 FEET TO 3-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THRU THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROF/FRONT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC PG
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NE TO ENE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SOMEWHAT TOO EARLY FOR THE DAYSHIFT...WILL LET EITHER THE EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT PUT UP THE EXTENDED SCA. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BUILD AND HOLD IN THE 3 TO 7 FOOT RANGE DEPENDING ON ONES LOCATION
IN RELATION TO THE COASTLINE CONFIGURATION. OVERALL...SIG SEAS
WILL BECOME MAINLY A FUNCTION OF NE TO ENE WIND WAVES EXHIBITING
5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-3 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8+
SECOND PERIODS WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
REGION VERY CLOSE TO THE CUSP OF SCEC HEADLINES VS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE MORE SERIOUS LATTER HEADLINE APPEARS IN THE OFFERING
FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SCEC COME SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL THAT WILL
COEXIST WITH THE WIND WAVES...BUT BOTH WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
SHADOWING LOCALLY OFF OF HATTERAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 221958
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD. LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINS WILL BECOME THE MAINSTAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK
PERIOD. A STALLED AND INVERTED COASTAL TROF/FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD KEEPING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION OVER LAND TO A MINIMUM. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AS
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. ANY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AT
LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. THIS LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. SEVERAL FACTORS
SEEM TO HAVE COME TOGETHER TO FORECAST A WET OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FIRST THERE IS A DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO VIA WATER VAPOR. SECOND...THE OMEGA WILL COME IN SEVERAL
FORMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STARTING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...SOME
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS IN THE 209-300K LAYER. MOVING
UP...SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER.
DIFLUENCE EXISTS AT THE 500MB LAYER AND FINALLY...A STRONG JET AT
300MB WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AND THE FAVORABLE REGIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS MAY ECLIPSE ONE HALF INCH
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EXTREME COASTAL AREAS BUT WILL OTHERWISE
END UP BETWEEN ONE TENTH INLAND TO ONE HALF ELSEWHERE.

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ADDRESS THE CLOUD COVER COOLED READINGS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 50S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PATTERN ALOFT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A
BOTTLE NECK ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN UNISON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THRU WEDNESDAY. POSITIONING OF THIS CLOSED
LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN S GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. JUST OFFSHORE AND LINING
UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WILL LIE A COASTAL TROF/FRONT. DURING THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE VIA MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL BE LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM-TYPE LIGHT RAINS. A
SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN LIKELY TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS.
THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PCPN WILL GET
PUSHED INLAND. HAVE INDICATED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DEVELOPS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES ONSHORE. AS FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING PCPN THREAT
AS WELL AS THE PRESENT STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS FA THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COOL AIR WEDGE PLUS A COASTAL TROUGH SPELLS
SOME RATHER UNSETTLED AND PROBABLY PRETTY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY BE SHOWING THEIR
BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO THAT INCREASES WITH TIME SINCE THEY PORTRAY
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO BOTH DAYS...WHILE KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70 TOMORROW
IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS OFFERING UP CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL KEEP
FORECAST CLOSER TO CURRENT VALUES OF MID 70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS IN
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE GFS HAS NOW
BACKED OFF ALMOST COMPLETELY WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF QPF. THIS
IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE GEM AND SO MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPRESSING THE
DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH LIKELY LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TECHNICALLY BE NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAKLY COOL THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. THE
LESSER CLOUD COVER MEANWHILE COULD BRING SOME COOLER NIGHTS WHEN
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD...WITH
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REPLACED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BRINGING EVERYONE DOWN TO IFR.
FELL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AT THE JUNCTION...BUT KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
TUESDAY...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRIES TO WAVE THE FRONT
BACK ONSHORE...HOWEVER FEEL MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CWA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH ABOUT 10-12
KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SEE A ROBUST 15 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD FROM AROUND THE CURRENT 2-3 FEET TO 3-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE
STATES...WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THRU THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROF/FRONT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC PG
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NE TO ENE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SOMEWHAT TOO EARLY FOR THE DAYSHIFT...WILL LET EITHER THE EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT PUT UP THE EXTENDED SCA. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BUILD AND HOLD IN THE 3 TO 7 FOOT RANGE DEPENDING ON ONES LOCATION
IN RELATION TO THE COASTLINE CONFIGURATION. OVERALL...SIG SEAS
WILL BECOME MAINLY A FUNCTION OF NE TO ENE WIND WAVES EXHIBITING
5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-3 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8+
SECOND PERIODS WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE
REGION VERY CLOSE TO THE CUSP OF SCEC HEADLINES VS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE MORE SERIOUS LATTER HEADLINE APPEARS IN THE OFFERING
FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SCEC COME SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL THAT WILL
COEXIST WITH THE WIND WAVES...BUT BOTH WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
SHADOWING LOCALLY OFF OF HATTERAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221929
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY SHEARING  DURING
THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

EVEN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS SLIDE TO UNAVOIDABLE OBSCURITY AS
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT-
TUESDAY. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL SPECTRUM...IS NOW THE WETTER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE EC WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES:  RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)LATE TONIGHT... AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EVEN MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH AND UNDER
THE  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD DEVELOP WELL INLAND
AND MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST REFLECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE EC.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER BACK INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: PROXIMITY TO CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KFAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER
CENTRAL NC AS DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO PIEDMONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221929
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY SHEARING  DURING
THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

EVEN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS SLIDE TO UNAVOIDABLE OBSCURITY AS
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT-
TUESDAY. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL SPECTRUM...IS NOW THE WETTER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE EC WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES:  RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)LATE TONIGHT... AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EVEN MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH AND UNDER
THE  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD DEVELOP WELL INLAND
AND MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST REFLECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE EC.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER BACK INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: PROXIMITY TO CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KFAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER
CENTRAL NC AS DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO PIEDMONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221929
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY SHEARING  DURING
THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

EVEN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS SLIDE TO UNAVOIDABLE OBSCURITY AS
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT-
TUESDAY. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL SPECTRUM...IS NOW THE WETTER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE EC WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES:  RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)LATE TONIGHT... AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EVEN MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH AND UNDER
THE  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD DEVELOP WELL INLAND
AND MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST REFLECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE EC.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER BACK INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: PROXIMITY TO CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KFAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER
CENTRAL NC AS DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO PIEDMONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221929
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY SHEARING  DURING
THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG
THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

EVEN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS SLIDE TO UNAVOIDABLE OBSCURITY AS
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT-
TUESDAY. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL SPECTRUM...IS NOW THE WETTER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE EC WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES:  RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN (SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)LATE TONIGHT... AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EVEN MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH AND UNDER
THE  INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD DEVELOP WELL INLAND
AND MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST REFLECTS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE EC.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER BACK INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: PROXIMITY TO CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KFAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER
CENTRAL NC AS DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO PIEDMONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 221859
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. LATEST 4KM NSSL WRF AND 3KM HRRR
SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING. GFS NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING MID-LEVEL LOW
BECOMING CUT OFF TO OUR WEST OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SOUTH
COAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE CHANCE POPS RETURNING TO COASTAL
SECTIONS BY 10Z TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH GFS TRENDED WETTER WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR WEST...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND WHERE THETA-E/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET SCENARIO. CONT TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLN AND GFS IS COMING INTO LINE AS WELL. A CLOSED UPR LOW
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUE NIGHT
AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND. RAIN
SHOULD SHOULD ONGOING TUE EVENING ACRS COASTAL AREAS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND
STRENGTHENING OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WILL CONT HIGH
CHANCE POPS. MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

APRS THAT CLOSED LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONT FCST OF
HIGH CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
SLIM WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT KISO/KEWN/KOAJ
THROUGH LATE-AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN WINDS/SEAS...BUOY
SITES REPORTING MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AT 3 TO 4 FEET. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND FRONTAL OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT
09Z SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A WET SCENARIO EXPECTED WITH INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8
FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND
WED AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WILL CALL FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221859
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. LATEST 4KM NSSL WRF AND 3KM HRRR
SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING. GFS NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING MID-LEVEL LOW
BECOMING CUT OFF TO OUR WEST OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SOUTH
COAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE CHANCE POPS RETURNING TO COASTAL
SECTIONS BY 10Z TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH GFS TRENDED WETTER WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR WEST...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND WHERE THETA-E/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET SCENARIO. CONT TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLN AND GFS IS COMING INTO LINE AS WELL. A CLOSED UPR LOW
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUE NIGHT
AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND. RAIN
SHOULD SHOULD ONGOING TUE EVENING ACRS COASTAL AREAS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND
STRENGTHENING OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WILL CONT HIGH
CHANCE POPS. MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

APRS THAT CLOSED LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONT FCST OF
HIGH CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
SLIM WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT KISO/KEWN/KOAJ
THROUGH LATE-AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN WINDS/SEAS...BUOY
SITES REPORTING MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AT 3 TO 4 FEET. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND FRONTAL OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT
09Z SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A WET SCENARIO EXPECTED WITH INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8
FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND
WED AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WILL CALL FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221859
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. LATEST 4KM NSSL WRF AND 3KM HRRR
SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING. GFS NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING MID-LEVEL LOW
BECOMING CUT OFF TO OUR WEST OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SOUTH
COAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE CHANCE POPS RETURNING TO COASTAL
SECTIONS BY 10Z TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH GFS TRENDED WETTER WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR WEST...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND WHERE THETA-E/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET SCENARIO. CONT TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLN AND GFS IS COMING INTO LINE AS WELL. A CLOSED UPR LOW
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUE NIGHT
AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND. RAIN
SHOULD SHOULD ONGOING TUE EVENING ACRS COASTAL AREAS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND
STRENGTHENING OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WILL CONT HIGH
CHANCE POPS. MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

APRS THAT CLOSED LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONT FCST OF
HIGH CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
SLIM WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT KISO/KEWN/KOAJ
THROUGH LATE-AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN WINDS/SEAS...BUOY
SITES REPORTING MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AT 3 TO 4 FEET. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND FRONTAL OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT
09Z SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A WET SCENARIO EXPECTED WITH INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8
FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND
WED AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WILL CALL FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221859
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. LATEST 4KM NSSL WRF AND 3KM HRRR
SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING. GFS NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING MID-LEVEL LOW
BECOMING CUT OFF TO OUR WEST OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SOUTH
COAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE CHANCE POPS RETURNING TO COASTAL
SECTIONS BY 10Z TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH GFS TRENDED WETTER WITH UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR WEST...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND WHERE THETA-E/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET SCENARIO. CONT TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLN AND GFS IS COMING INTO LINE AS WELL. A CLOSED UPR LOW
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUE NIGHT
AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES INLAND. RAIN
SHOULD SHOULD ONGOING TUE EVENING ACRS COASTAL AREAS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS AND
STRENGTHENING OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL
CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WILL CONT HIGH
CHANCE POPS. MAY BE SOME THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

APRS THAT CLOSED LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONT FCST OF
HIGH CHANCE RANGE. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
SLIM WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT KISO/KEWN/KOAJ
THROUGH LATE-AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WITH A TEMPORARY LULL IN WINDS/SEAS...BUOY
SITES REPORTING MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AT 3 TO 4 FEET. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND FRONTAL OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT
09Z SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THEN STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MON...A WET SCENARIO EXPECTED WITH INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8
FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND
WED AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THOUGH TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WILL CALL FOR DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM THURSDAY ON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC







000
FXUS62 KRAH 221838
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: STOUT SHORTWAVE VORTMAX DIVING ESE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE... SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHANCES: THE FAR SE COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING(ANOTHER HOUR OR SO)...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SURGES SOUTH. THEN LATE
TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD BACK INLAND ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE COUNTIES(SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE...TRIGGERING WEAK OVERRUNNING.
ISENTROPIC LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK...AND THUS EXPECT PREDOMINATELY CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES: COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS RANGING LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO NEAR 80S SE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS...AT LEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT... BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS... AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC
TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER... THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL
FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH
A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST
FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON)
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE
NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER BACK INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: PROXIMITY TO CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KFAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER
CENTRAL NC AS DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO PIEDMONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 221838
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: STOUT SHORTWAVE VORTMAX DIVING ESE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE... SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHANCES: THE FAR SE COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING(ANOTHER HOUR OR SO)...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SURGES SOUTH. THEN LATE
TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD BACK INLAND ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE COUNTIES(SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE...TRIGGERING WEAK OVERRUNNING.
ISENTROPIC LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK...AND THUS EXPECT PREDOMINATELY CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES: COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS RANGING LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO NEAR 80S SE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS...AT LEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT... BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS... AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC
TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER... THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL
FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH
A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST
FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON)
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP
CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE
NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT (AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS NOW ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS
FURTHER OFFSHORE (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE) WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH...THUS IT IS STILL THE DRIER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF (AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN). REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST). HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS IN WHILE RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE INVERTED TROUGH TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AS THERE WILL BE STILL BE A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS CAN BE EXPECTED (GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST)...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER BACK INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: PROXIMITY TO CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KFAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER
CENTRAL NC AS DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO PIEDMONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221805
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: STOUT SHORTWAVE VORTMAX DIVING ESE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE... SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHANCES: THE FAR SE COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING(ANOTHER HOUR OR SO)...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SURGES SOUTH. THEN LATE
TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD BACK INLAND ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE COUNTIES(SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE...TRIGGERING WEAK OVERRUNNING.
ISENTROPIC LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK...AND THUS EXPECT PREDOMINATELY CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES: COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS RANGING LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO NEAR 80S SE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS...AT LEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER BACK INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: PROXIMITY TO CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KFAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER
CENTRAL NC AS DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO PIEDMONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KRAH 221805
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: STOUT SHORTWAVE VORTMAX DIVING ESE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE... SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHANCES: THE FAR SE COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING(ANOTHER HOUR OR SO)...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SURGES SOUTH. THEN LATE
TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD BACK INLAND ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE COUNTIES(SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE...TRIGGERING WEAK OVERRUNNING.
ISENTROPIC LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK...AND THUS EXPECT PREDOMINATELY CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES: COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS RANGING LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO NEAR 80S SE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS...AT LEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERING IN THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST
OFFSHORE...ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE IN THE 5-10KFT LAYER BACK INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: PROXIMITY TO CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG WITH INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KFAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER
CENTRAL NC AS DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO PIEDMONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KILM 221725
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A
STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AS
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. ANY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AT
LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. THIS LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. SEVERAL FACTORS
SEEM TO HAVE COME TOGETHER TO FORECAST A WET OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FIRST THERE IS A DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO VIA WATER VAPOR. SECOND...THE OMEGA WILL COME IN SEVERAL
FORMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STARTING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...SOME
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS IN THE 209-300K LAYER. MOVING
UP...SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER.
DIFLUENCE EXISTS AT THE 500MB LAYER AND FINALLY...A STRONG JET AT
300MB WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AND THE FAVORABLE REGIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS MAY ECLIPSE ONE HALF INCH
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EXTREME COASTAL AREAS BUT WILL OTHERWISE
END UP BETWEEN ONE TENTH INLAND TO ONE HALF ELSEWHERE.

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ADDRESS THE CLOUD COVER COOLED READINGS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 50S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD...WITH
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REPLACED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BRINGING EVERYONE DOWN TO IFR.
FELL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AT THE JUNCTION...BUT KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
TUESDAY...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRIES TO WAVE THE FRONT
BACK ONSHORE...HOWEVER FEEL MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CWA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH ABOUT 10-12
KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SEE A ROBUST 15 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD FROM AROUND THE CURRENT 2-3 FEET TO 3-4 FEET.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS
WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BUT HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY
ABOUT THE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 221725
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A
STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AS
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. ANY SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AT
LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. THIS LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. SEVERAL FACTORS
SEEM TO HAVE COME TOGETHER TO FORECAST A WET OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FIRST THERE IS A DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO VIA WATER VAPOR. SECOND...THE OMEGA WILL COME IN SEVERAL
FORMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STARTING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...SOME
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS IN THE 209-300K LAYER. MOVING
UP...SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER.
DIFLUENCE EXISTS AT THE 500MB LAYER AND FINALLY...A STRONG JET AT
300MB WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AND THE FAVORABLE REGIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. LONG STORY SHORT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS MAY ECLIPSE ONE HALF INCH
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EXTREME COASTAL AREAS BUT WILL OTHERWISE
END UP BETWEEN ONE TENTH INLAND TO ONE HALF ELSEWHERE.

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ADDRESS THE CLOUD COVER COOLED READINGS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 50S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD...WITH
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
REPLACED WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NAM IS VERY
PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS...BRINGING EVERYONE DOWN TO IFR.
FELL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AT THE JUNCTION...BUT KEEP AN OPEN MIND.
TUESDAY...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRIES TO WAVE THE FRONT
BACK ONSHORE...HOWEVER FEEL MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CWA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH ABOUT 10-12
KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SEE A ROBUST 15 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD FROM AROUND THE CURRENT 2-3 FEET TO 3-4 FEET.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS
WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BUT HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY
ABOUT THE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221644
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT NOW RIGHT ALONG THE COAST PER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EWN PROFILER DATA. A SMALL AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE THERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 80 DEGREES CWA-WIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KISO/KEWN/KOAJ THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS TO PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FEET AT DIAMOND
BUOY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA UNTIL 2 PM AS SOME RESIDUAL HIGH
SEAS MAY BE OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS CONTINUE N/NNW AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 221644
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT NOW RIGHT ALONG THE COAST PER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EWN PROFILER DATA. A SMALL AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE THERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 80 DEGREES CWA-WIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KISO/KEWN/KOAJ THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS TO PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FEET AT DIAMOND
BUOY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA UNTIL 2 PM AS SOME RESIDUAL HIGH
SEAS MAY BE OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS CONTINUE N/NNW AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 221644
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT NOW RIGHT ALONG THE COAST PER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EWN PROFILER DATA. A SMALL AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE THERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 80 DEGREES CWA-WIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KISO/KEWN/KOAJ THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS TO PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FEET AT DIAMOND
BUOY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA UNTIL 2 PM AS SOME RESIDUAL HIGH
SEAS MAY BE OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS CONTINUE N/NNW AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 221644
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT NOW RIGHT ALONG THE COAST PER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EWN PROFILER DATA. A SMALL AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AND
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE THERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 80 DEGREES CWA-WIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KISO/KEWN/KOAJ THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS TO PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FEET AT DIAMOND
BUOY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA UNTIL 2 PM AS SOME RESIDUAL HIGH
SEAS MAY BE OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS CONTINUE N/NNW AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 221446
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: STOUT SHORTWAVE VORTMAX DIVING ESE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL DECELERATE AND WILL CLOSE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE... SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHANCES: THE FAR SE COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING(ANOTHER HOUR OR SO)...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SURGES SOUTH. THEN LATE
TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD BACK INLAND ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE COUNTIES(SAMPSON/WAYNE COUNTIES)AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE...TRIGGERING WEAK OVERRUNNING.
ISENTROPIC LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK...AND THUS EXPECT PREDOMINATELY CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES: COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES HIGHS RANGING LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO NEAR 80S SE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
OWING TO THE RETURN OF CLOUDS...AT LEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT. LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 221425
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY... THE COLD FRONT IS BEST SEEN IN THE
DEWPOINT FIELDS WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY IS HOLDING STRONG AND A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED.
THERE IS ALSO COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHOWING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. OVERALL POPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOW CHANCE VALUES
THIS MORNING TRENDING DOWN LATER TODAY ONLY TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN...SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT IS POISED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE IS MOSTLY MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
FLO AND LBT WITH AT WORST INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TODAY
HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES. THERE COULD BE
SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THERE...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. WINDS
POST FRONTAL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS. ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO INCREASE WINDS ARRIVES TONIGHT WHEN A HEALTHIER 10-15
KNOT...LEANING TO THE HIGHER END...RANGE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL MAINTAIN A
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET WITH THE HIGHER END SHOWING UP TONIGHT.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS
WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BUT HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY
ABOUT THE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL







000
FXUS62 KILM 221425
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY... THE COLD FRONT IS BEST SEEN IN THE
DEWPOINT FIELDS WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY IS HOLDING STRONG AND A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED.
THERE IS ALSO COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHOWING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. OVERALL POPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOW CHANCE VALUES
THIS MORNING TRENDING DOWN LATER TODAY ONLY TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN...SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT IS POISED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE IS MOSTLY MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
FLO AND LBT WITH AT WORST INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TODAY
HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES. THERE COULD BE
SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THERE...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. WINDS
POST FRONTAL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS. ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO INCREASE WINDS ARRIVES TONIGHT WHEN A HEALTHIER 10-15
KNOT...LEANING TO THE HIGHER END...RANGE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL MAINTAIN A
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET WITH THE HIGHER END SHOWING UP TONIGHT.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS
WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BUT HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY
ABOUT THE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221336
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASING TO THE COAST AT
THIS HOUR WITH JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST BEHIND IT
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT NO THUNDER AS INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED TO OFFSHORE AREAS. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DOWNSLOPING
FLOW AND A WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 14Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT
EARLY BUT TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE TAFS. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA
THIS MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LOWER
SCU PSBL WITH NE WINDS AT KEWN AND KOAJ TONIGHT...BUT CIGS NOT
INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...WILL BE EXTENDING SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL 2 PM AS DIAMOND BUOY STILL SHOWING 6 FOOT
SEAS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS COLD FRONT
EASES ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE LATER THIS
AFTN AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD SUBSID TO 3-4
FT BY MID AFTN...BUT BUILD BACK TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/CTC/TL






000
FXUS62 KMHX 221140
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM MONDAY..ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR MORE CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR WARMER READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM SW AND SLIGHT CHC POP
LOOKS GOOD FOR REST OF MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LIMITED. FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...BUT
SRN END OF UPR TROF WILL BE STALLED AND KEEP SOME KEEP SOME
CLOUDINESS OVER AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE PCPN THREAT
DURING AFTN WILL BE LIMITED TO SRN COAST AND DROPPED POPS INLAND
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG COAST. ALSO DROPPED TSTM MENTION AS
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF COAST. STRONGER CAA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH WARMER MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...SOME LOWER 80S SRN SECTIONS AND UPR 70S NRN OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 14Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT
EARLY BUT TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE TAFS. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA
THIS MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LOWER
SCU PSBL WITH NE WINDS AT KEWN AND KOAJ TONIGHT...BUT CIGS NOT
INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 715 AM MONDAY...EXTENDED SCA FOR 6 FT SEAS CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM. BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS STILL AROUND 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL WATERS WITH FRONT STILL TO MOVE THROUGH AREA...THUS
EXTENDED SCA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM MODERATE W-SW TO NW
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE THIS AFTN AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT.

SEAS 4-6 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT BY AFTN...BUT BUILD BACK TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221140
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM MONDAY..ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR MORE CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR WARMER READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM SW AND SLIGHT CHC POP
LOOKS GOOD FOR REST OF MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LIMITED. FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...BUT
SRN END OF UPR TROF WILL BE STALLED AND KEEP SOME KEEP SOME
CLOUDINESS OVER AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE PCPN THREAT
DURING AFTN WILL BE LIMITED TO SRN COAST AND DROPPED POPS INLAND
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG COAST. ALSO DROPPED TSTM MENTION AS
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF COAST. STRONGER CAA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH WARMER MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...SOME LOWER 80S SRN SECTIONS AND UPR 70S NRN OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 14Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT
EARLY BUT TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE TAFS. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA
THIS MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LOWER
SCU PSBL WITH NE WINDS AT KEWN AND KOAJ TONIGHT...BUT CIGS NOT
INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 715 AM MONDAY...EXTENDED SCA FOR 6 FT SEAS CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM. BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS STILL AROUND 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL WATERS WITH FRONT STILL TO MOVE THROUGH AREA...THUS
EXTENDED SCA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM MODERATE W-SW TO NW
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE THIS AFTN AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT.

SEAS 4-6 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT BY AFTN...BUT BUILD BACK TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL







000
FXUS62 KRAH 221057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 221057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 221053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUS ON THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA. 07Z HRRR BRINGS IT STEADILY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. A NEW
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED TO DEVELOP IN THE SANTEE
RIVER/CHARLESTON VICINITY BETWEEN 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS POTENTIALLY BLOWING LIGHT RAIN ANOTHER 30-50 MILES NORTH
OF THE STORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS OR
WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AND ABOVE THE 850
MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP AT 500 MB AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT IS POISED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE IS MOSTLY MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
FLO AND LBT WITH AT WORST INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TODAY
HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES. THERE COULD BE
SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THERE...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. WINDS
POST FRONTAL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...THE FRONT IS RUNNING ABOUT TWO HOURS SLOWER
THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. IT HAS CROSSED INTERSTATE 95 AND
SHOULD BE AT THE BEACHES AROUND 9 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300
AM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW
















000
FXUS62 KILM 221053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUS ON THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA. 07Z HRRR BRINGS IT STEADILY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. A NEW
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED TO DEVELOP IN THE SANTEE
RIVER/CHARLESTON VICINITY BETWEEN 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS POTENTIALLY BLOWING LIGHT RAIN ANOTHER 30-50 MILES NORTH
OF THE STORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS OR
WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AND ABOVE THE 850
MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP AT 500 MB AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT IS POISED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE IS MOSTLY MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
FLO AND LBT WITH AT WORST INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TODAY
HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES. THERE COULD BE
SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THERE...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. WINDS
POST FRONTAL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...THE FRONT IS RUNNING ABOUT TWO HOURS SLOWER
THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. IT HAS CROSSED INTERSTATE 95 AND
SHOULD BE AT THE BEACHES AROUND 9 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300
AM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW
















000
FXUS62 KILM 221053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUS ON THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA. 07Z HRRR BRINGS IT STEADILY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. A NEW
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED TO DEVELOP IN THE SANTEE
RIVER/CHARLESTON VICINITY BETWEEN 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS POTENTIALLY BLOWING LIGHT RAIN ANOTHER 30-50 MILES NORTH
OF THE STORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS OR
WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AND ABOVE THE 850
MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP AT 500 MB AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT IS POISED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE IS MOSTLY MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
FLO AND LBT WITH AT WORST INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TODAY
HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES. THERE COULD BE
SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THERE...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. WINDS
POST FRONTAL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...THE FRONT IS RUNNING ABOUT TWO HOURS SLOWER
THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. IT HAS CROSSED INTERSTATE 95 AND
SHOULD BE AT THE BEACHES AROUND 9 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300
AM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW
















000
FXUS62 KILM 221053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUS ON THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA. 07Z HRRR BRINGS IT STEADILY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. A NEW
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED TO DEVELOP IN THE SANTEE
RIVER/CHARLESTON VICINITY BETWEEN 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS POTENTIALLY BLOWING LIGHT RAIN ANOTHER 30-50 MILES NORTH
OF THE STORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS OR
WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AND ABOVE THE 850
MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP AT 500 MB AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT IS POISED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE IS MOSTLY MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
FLO AND LBT WITH AT WORST INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TODAY
HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES. THERE COULD BE
SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THERE...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. WINDS
POST FRONTAL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...THE FRONT IS RUNNING ABOUT TWO HOURS SLOWER
THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. IT HAS CROSSED INTERSTATE 95 AND
SHOULD BE AT THE BEACHES AROUND 9 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300
AM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW
















000
FXUS62 KILM 221045
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUS ON THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA. 07Z HRRR BRINGS IT STEADILY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. A NEW
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED TO DEVELOP IN THE SANTEE
RIVER/CHARLESTON VICINITY BETWEEN 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS POTENTIALLY BLOWING LIGHT RAIN ANOTHER 30-50 MILES NORTH
OF THE STORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS OR
WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AND ABOVE THE 850
MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP AT 500 MB AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...THE FRONT IS RUNNING ABOUT TWO HOURS SLOWER
THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. IT HAS CROSSED INTERSTATE 95 AND
SHOULD BE AT THE BEACHES AROUND 9 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300
AM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW













000
FXUS62 KILM 221045
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUS ON THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA. 07Z HRRR BRINGS IT STEADILY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. A NEW
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS INDICATED TO DEVELOP IN THE SANTEE
RIVER/CHARLESTON VICINITY BETWEEN 3-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE UPRIGHT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS POTENTIALLY BLOWING LIGHT RAIN ANOTHER 30-50 MILES NORTH
OF THE STORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPS OR
WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...

A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AND ABOVE THE 850
MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP AT 500 MB AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...THE FRONT IS RUNNING ABOUT TWO HOURS SLOWER
THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. IT HAS CROSSED INTERSTATE 95 AND
SHOULD BE AT THE BEACHES AROUND 9 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300
AM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW














000
FXUS62 KMHX 220840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LIMITED. FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...BUT
SRN END OF UPR TROF WILL BE STALLED AND KEEP SOME KEEP SOME
CLOUDINESS OVER AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE PCPN THREAT
DURING AFTN WILL BE LIMITED TO SRN COAST AND DROPPED POPS INLAND
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG COAST. ALSO DROPPED TSTM MENTION AS
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF COAST. STRONGER CAA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH WARMER MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...SOME LOWER 80S SRN SECTIONS AND UPR 70S NRN OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE DEACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCTY OF KPGV NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA THIS
MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM MODERATE W-SW TO NW
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE THIS AFTN AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT.

SEAS 4-6 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT BY AFTN...BUT BUILD BACK TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL











000
FXUS62 KMHX 220840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LIMITED. FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...BUT
SRN END OF UPR TROF WILL BE STALLED AND KEEP SOME KEEP SOME
CLOUDINESS OVER AREA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE PCPN THREAT
DURING AFTN WILL BE LIMITED TO SRN COAST AND DROPPED POPS INLAND
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG COAST. ALSO DROPPED TSTM MENTION AS
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF COAST. STRONGER CAA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH WARMER MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...SOME LOWER 80S SRN SECTIONS AND UPR 70S NRN OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...LOW LVL CAA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WHILE SRN
END OF SHRT WV CURRING OFF JUST W-SW OF AREA WILL PRODUCE ISENT LIFT
AND KEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO 60S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE DEACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCTY OF KPGV NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA THIS
MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM MODERATE W-SW TO NW
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE THIS AFTN AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT.

SEAS 4-6 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT BY AFTN...BUT BUILD BACK TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL










000
FXUS62 KMHX 220812
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF OF
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
MOVING E OF RAH...AND LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS WELL...BUT
TEMPS AND WINDS OKAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BY MID WEEK.

TUESDAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY QUITE A BIT...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDS ACT TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN FCST FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR...AS NOW
APPEARS A WET SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN
ACCORDANCE. STILL HEAVILY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN...AS THIS HAS THE
SUPPORT FROM THE WPC GUIDANCE...CMC/NAM AND ECMENS MEAN. HAVE ALL
BUT DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLN AS IT REMAINS A LARGE DRY OUTLIER.
CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE CULPRIT FOR THE UNSETTLED PATTERN...AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LEAVES
BEHIND A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL VORT THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON TUE AND WED. AT THE SFC...INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SETS
UP TUE NIGHT AND SHARPENS THROUGH THE DAY WED AS IT PROPAGATES
INLAND. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP TUE EVENING NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS AND STRENGTHENING OMEGA/FGEN OCCURS WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. PWATS INC TO 2 INCHES OR MORE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LIKELY
POPS FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WHERE DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE QUITE YET SO CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE. INTRODUCED HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO GRIDS AS WELL...DUE TO ABOVE STATED REASONING. MAY
BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS CONFINED TO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.

FOR THUR...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSED LOW AND WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH WILL REACT TO THE SUBTLE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...AND HAVE CAPPED
POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE...THOUGH STILL THINK A FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

CONTINUED A SLOWLY DIMINISHING POP TREND FOR FRI AND BEYOND...AS
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FILLING UPR LOW KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER
SLIM... THOUGH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE DEACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCTY OF KPGV NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA THIS
MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY THOUGH
INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE. IT APPEARS
NOW A WET SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO THUR. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AN ISSUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE EXCEPT TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALB SOUND OVERNIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH
NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. A WET SCENARIO LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING TUE NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WED
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WIND
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION BEYOND WED AS COASTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THOUGH TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASING
WINDS AND SEAS THUR AND BEYOND BUT WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND WAVE
HEIGHT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...CTC/JME/TL/LEP






000
FXUS62 KRAH 220746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
346 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
346 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
346 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
346 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KILM 220743
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
343 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN
STORE FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC
PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY
MID MORNING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS
CHANGE...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
AT AND ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND
THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING AS SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP
AT 500 MB AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW










000
FXUS62 KILM 220743
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
343 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST IS IN
STORE FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NC
PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY
MID MORNING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING A DRY
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A SHALLOW AIRMASS
CHANGE...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS REMAINING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
AT AND ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT JUST BEYOND
THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING AS SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. UP
AT 500 MB AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITHOUT A CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS EARLY HOUR. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND TODAY AND WHAT IMPACT DOES IT HAVE ON TEMPERATURES?
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A NARROW BAND OF THICK CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AL/GA...MATCHING UP QUITE WELL WITH ANALYZED 700 MB RH MODEL FIELDS.
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS ADVECT THIS MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO LET TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 80S. IN FACT MORE
SUNSHINE UP IN THE LUMBERTON/ELIZABETHTOWN AREA WILL PROBABLY
BALANCE OUT THE OVERALL COOLER AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR WEST
TONIGHT HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING RAIN DEVELOPS? ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...PROBABLY
NOT BEGINNING IN EARNEST UNTIL THE 310K THETA SURFACE WHICH WILL BE
UP NEAR 600 MB. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO EXIST BELOW 600 MB IT IS HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ONSHORE EITHER. MY HIGHEST POP FORECASTS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR LEADING TO
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FROM ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH DILLON
AND DARLINGTON. LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MID 60S ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY
BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY
DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS
CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR
THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS.
HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND
MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST.
WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER
INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY
DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE
MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN
DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FEET WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING NE WIND. WE COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT
TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW











000
FXUS62 KRAH 220656
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
256 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220656
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
256 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220656
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
256 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220656
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
256 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST RAPIDLY TRENDING CLOUDY/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z GFS/NAM KEEP
PRECIP LARGELY SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER...
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND TUE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH/SE BY WED MORNING. WITH SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NC TO REFLECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS
STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S TUE AFTERNOON) AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT IF THE 12Z GFS/NAM
GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220611
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
211 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST TRENDING CLOUDIER/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST FOR TUE WILL BE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE
60S TUE AFTERNOON)...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER
50S SE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220611
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
211 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE COAST
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AT 05Z THIS
MORNING WILL TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE COAST TODAY AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY IN MOST
AREAS... THOUGH PRIMARILY IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NC.

TONIGHT: PRIOR MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND INDICATED IT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 06-09Z TUE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AND SHOWS A
STRONGER/MORE ROBUST WAVE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSING OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC TONIGHT...THEN STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE AND PERHAPS TUE NIGHT AS IT IS
CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN (CUMBERLAND/WAYNE/ SAMPSON)...AND THE FORECAST EAST OF
I-95 WILL LIKELY NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FAR N/NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 50S FAR SE COASTAL
PLAIN. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

...FORECAST TRENDING CLOUDIER/COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...

AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE REGION TODAY WILL DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SC TONIGHT...
BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE AN
INVERTED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST FOR TUE WILL BE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE
60S TUE AFTERNOON)...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S N/NW PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER
50S SE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH CENTRAL NC BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. A LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THOUGH THE FORECAST IS TRENDING COOLER/CLOUDIER WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUE/WED...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC
WHERE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 KFT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS TUE/WED. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 220554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF OF
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
MOVING E OF RAH...AND LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS WELL...BUT
TEMPS AND WINDS OKAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE DEACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCTY OF KPGV NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA THIS
MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE EXCEPT TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALB SOUND OVERNIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF OF
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
MOVING E OF RAH...AND LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS WELL...BUT
TEMPS AND WINDS OKAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE DEACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCTY OF KPGV NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA THIS
MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE EXCEPT TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALB SOUND OVERNIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF OF
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
MOVING E OF RAH...AND LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS WELL...BUT
TEMPS AND WINDS OKAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE DEACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCTY OF KPGV NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA THIS
MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE EXCEPT TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALB SOUND OVERNIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
150 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF OF
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
MOVING E OF RAH...AND LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS WELL...BUT
TEMPS AND WINDS OKAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z THIS MORNING
BEFORE DEACCELERATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCTY OF KPGV NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.
PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MIXED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WITH FROPA THIS
MORNING BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE EXCEPT TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALB SOUND OVERNIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP/JBM






000
FXUS62 KRAH 220546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH...MOSTLY
FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH TOWARD LEXINGTON...WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK MLCAPE DESPITE A MID-LEVEL INVERSION JUST ABOVE 600MB.  THERE
ARE ALSO SOME SHOWERS BACK CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT TO WATCH..BUT
THESE WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO ALSO DWINDLE WITH TIME AS THEY PROGRESS EAST NEAR THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR.  MOST AREAS THAT SEE A SHOWER WILL GET LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S BUT THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.


THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM SUNDAY...

A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 4-7 THOUSAND FT
CEILINGS...AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS MAINLY AT TRIAD
TERMINALS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIGHT...INITIALLY SW TO W SFC WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW AS THE FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NW TO NNW WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MID-
LATE WEEK...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND
POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH...MOSTLY
FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH TOWARD LEXINGTON...WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK MLCAPE DESPITE A MID-LEVEL INVERSION JUST ABOVE 600MB.  THERE
ARE ALSO SOME SHOWERS BACK CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT TO WATCH..BUT
THESE WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO ALSO DWINDLE WITH TIME AS THEY PROGRESS EAST NEAR THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR.  MOST AREAS THAT SEE A SHOWER WILL GET LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S BUT THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.


THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM SUNDAY...

A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 4-7 THOUSAND FT
CEILINGS...AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS MAINLY AT TRIAD
TERMINALS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIGHT...INITIALLY SW TO W SFC WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW AS THE FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NW TO NNW WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MID-
LATE WEEK...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND
POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH...MOSTLY
FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH TOWARD LEXINGTON...WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK MLCAPE DESPITE A MID-LEVEL INVERSION JUST ABOVE 600MB.  THERE
ARE ALSO SOME SHOWERS BACK CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT TO WATCH..BUT
THESE WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO ALSO DWINDLE WITH TIME AS THEY PROGRESS EAST NEAR THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR.  MOST AREAS THAT SEE A SHOWER WILL GET LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S BUT THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.


THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM SUNDAY...

A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 4-7 THOUSAND FT
CEILINGS...AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS MAINLY AT TRIAD
TERMINALS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIGHT...INITIALLY SW TO W SFC WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW AS THE FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NW TO NNW WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MID-
LATE WEEK...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND
POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH...MOSTLY
FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH TOWARD LEXINGTON...WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK MLCAPE DESPITE A MID-LEVEL INVERSION JUST ABOVE 600MB.  THERE
ARE ALSO SOME SHOWERS BACK CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT TO WATCH..BUT
THESE WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO ALSO DWINDLE WITH TIME AS THEY PROGRESS EAST NEAR THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR.  MOST AREAS THAT SEE A SHOWER WILL GET LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S BUT THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.


THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 136 AM MONDAY...

THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS WITH REGARD TO THE
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A WEAK CUT OFF MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WITH A STRONGER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE MID AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES SE-S WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY.
THIS SUPPORTS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI...
BECOMING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OR COASTAL ZONES BY SAT-SUN. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER POP WED NIGHT... THU... INTO FRI
BASED ON THE FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE LATEST OPERATIONS GFS
REMAINED IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP WITH VERY LOW OR NO POP DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME (WED NIGHT-FRI). THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH POP AND QPF. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THERE BEING AN
EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGARDLESS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. HIGHS 68-73 (7-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL). BECOMING CLOUDY
WED NIGHT... CLOUDY THU-FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 55-62. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 55-60. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM SUNDAY...

A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 4-7 THOUSAND FT
CEILINGS...AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS MAINLY AT TRIAD
TERMINALS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIGHT...INITIALLY SW TO W SFC WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW AS THE FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NW TO NNW WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MID-
LATE WEEK...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND
POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KILM 220519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...WATCHING SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP
BETWEEN CHARLOTTE AND ROCKINGHAM WITHIN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT
AND RATHER DENSE ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WHILE I DID NOT INCREASE POPS TO 20 PERCENT JUST YET...THIS
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF MEASURABLE
RAIN CAN FALL ACROSS THE BENNETTSVILLE-LUMBERTON VICINITY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWING 35 KT WSW WINDS AT 1000 FEET WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP...PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO INTO DAYBREAK
MONDAY AT BEST. MINS WERE RAISED TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S...MILDEST
NEAR THE COAST IN STRONGER WINDS AND BEING ADJACENT TO MILD SEA AND
ICWW TEMPERATURES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES MAY PREVAIL AT THE COAST INTO
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS INLAND A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS OUR WAY AND COULD APPROACH
THE COAST BY 12Z/8AM. NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
THROUGH 12Z SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SCARCITY OF
ECHOS AS THE FRONT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY MID-LVL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD ENDURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
SEAS WILL RISE ANOTHER FOOT...BRINGING 3 TO 4 FT SEAS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE
PLANNED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SEAS A MIX OF SE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 7-8
SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 3-4 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH/RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 220519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...WATCHING SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP
BETWEEN CHARLOTTE AND ROCKINGHAM WITHIN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT
AND RATHER DENSE ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WHILE I DID NOT INCREASE POPS TO 20 PERCENT JUST YET...THIS
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF MEASURABLE
RAIN CAN FALL ACROSS THE BENNETTSVILLE-LUMBERTON VICINITY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWING 35 KT WSW WINDS AT 1000 FEET WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP...PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO INTO DAYBREAK
MONDAY AT BEST. MINS WERE RAISED TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S...MILDEST
NEAR THE COAST IN STRONGER WINDS AND BEING ADJACENT TO MILD SEA AND
ICWW TEMPERATURES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES MAY PREVAIL AT THE COAST INTO
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS INLAND A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS OUR WAY AND COULD APPROACH
THE COAST BY 12Z/8AM. NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
THROUGH 12Z SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SCARCITY OF
ECHOS AS THE FRONT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY MID-LVL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD ENDURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
SEAS WILL RISE ANOTHER FOOT...BRINGING 3 TO 4 FT SEAS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE
PLANNED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SEAS A MIX OF SE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 7-8
SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 3-4 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH/RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 220519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...WATCHING SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP
BETWEEN CHARLOTTE AND ROCKINGHAM WITHIN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT
AND RATHER DENSE ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WHILE I DID NOT INCREASE POPS TO 20 PERCENT JUST YET...THIS
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF MEASURABLE
RAIN CAN FALL ACROSS THE BENNETTSVILLE-LUMBERTON VICINITY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWING 35 KT WSW WINDS AT 1000 FEET WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP...PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO INTO DAYBREAK
MONDAY AT BEST. MINS WERE RAISED TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S...MILDEST
NEAR THE COAST IN STRONGER WINDS AND BEING ADJACENT TO MILD SEA AND
ICWW TEMPERATURES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES MAY PREVAIL AT THE COAST INTO
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS INLAND A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS OUR WAY AND COULD APPROACH
THE COAST BY 12Z/8AM. NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
THROUGH 12Z SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SCARCITY OF
ECHOS AS THE FRONT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY MID-LVL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD ENDURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
SEAS WILL RISE ANOTHER FOOT...BRINGING 3 TO 4 FT SEAS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE
PLANNED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SEAS A MIX OF SE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 7-8
SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 3-4 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH/RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KILM 220519
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...WATCHING SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP
BETWEEN CHARLOTTE AND ROCKINGHAM WITHIN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT
AND RATHER DENSE ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WHILE I DID NOT INCREASE POPS TO 20 PERCENT JUST YET...THIS
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF MEASURABLE
RAIN CAN FALL ACROSS THE BENNETTSVILLE-LUMBERTON VICINITY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWING 35 KT WSW WINDS AT 1000 FEET WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP...PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO INTO DAYBREAK
MONDAY AT BEST. MINS WERE RAISED TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S...MILDEST
NEAR THE COAST IN STRONGER WINDS AND BEING ADJACENT TO MILD SEA AND
ICWW TEMPERATURES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES MAY PREVAIL AT THE COAST INTO
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS INLAND A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS OUR WAY AND COULD APPROACH
THE COAST BY 12Z/8AM. NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
THROUGH 12Z SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SCARCITY OF
ECHOS AS THE FRONT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY MID-LVL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
FROPA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TERMINAL-WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD ENDURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
SEAS WILL RISE ANOTHER FOOT...BRINGING 3 TO 4 FT SEAS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE
PLANNED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SEAS A MIX OF SE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 7-8
SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 3-4 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH/RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220434
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1235 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF OF
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
MOVING E OF RAH...AND LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS WELL...BUT
TEMPS AND WINDS OKAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE EXCEPT TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALB SOUND OVERNIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220434
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1235 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF OF
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
MOVING E OF RAH...AND LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
NW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AS WELL...BUT
TEMPS AND WINDS OKAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE EXCEPT TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALB SOUND OVERNIGHT PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP/JBM





000
FXUS62 KILM 220325
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1125 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM SUNDAY...PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO RAISE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 35 KT WSW WINDS AT 1000 FEET
WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP...PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY AT BEST. MINS WERE RAISED TO THE LOW
AND MIDDLE 70S...MILDEST NEAR THE COAST IN STRONGER WINDS AND
BEING ADJACENT TO MILD SEA AND ICWW TEMPERATURES. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR WE WILL HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES MAY PREVAIL AT THE COAST INTO DAYBREAK...WHEREAS INLAND A
FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS OUR WAY AND COULD APPROACH
THE COAST BY 12Z/8AM. NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED
THROUGH 12Z SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SCARCITY OF
ECHOS AS THE FRONT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY MID-LVL AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SW
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG
WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD ENDURE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SEAS WILL RISE ANOTHER FOOT...BRINGING 3
TO 4 FT SEAS AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE PLANNED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SEAS A MIX OF
SE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 7-8 SECONDS...AND SW WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 3-4
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH/RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KRAH 220205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH...MOSTLY
FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH TOWARD LEXINGTON...WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK MLCAPE DESPITE A MID-LEVEL INVERSION JUST ABOVE 600MB.  THERE
ARE ALSO SOME SHOWERS BACK CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT TO WATCH..BUT
THESE WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO ALSO DWINDLE WITH TIME AS THEY PROGRESS EAST NEAR THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR.  MOST AREAS THAT SEE A SHOWER WILL GET LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S BUT THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.


THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. ONE THING IN WHICH THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
THEREFORE IS WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY DRY). FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

SOME DRYING MAY COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM SUNDAY...

A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 4-7 THOUSAND FT
CEILINGS...AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS MAINLY AT TRIAD
TERMINALS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIGHT...INITIALLY SW TO W SFC WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW AS THE FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NW TO NNW WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MID-
LATE WEEK...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND
POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KRAH 220205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH...MOSTLY
FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH TOWARD LEXINGTON...WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK MLCAPE DESPITE A MID-LEVEL INVERSION JUST ABOVE 600MB.  THERE
ARE ALSO SOME SHOWERS BACK CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT TO WATCH..BUT
THESE WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO ALSO DWINDLE WITH TIME AS THEY PROGRESS EAST NEAR THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR.  MOST AREAS THAT SEE A SHOWER WILL GET LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 50S BUT THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.


THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. ONE THING IN WHICH THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
THEREFORE IS WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY DRY). FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

SOME DRYING MAY COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM SUNDAY...

A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 4-7 THOUSAND FT
CEILINGS...AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS MAINLY AT TRIAD
TERMINALS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIGHT...INITIALLY SW TO W SFC WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW AS THE FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NW TO NNW WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MID-
LATE WEEK...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND
POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 220150
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220150
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220150
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220150
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/ DEW POINT
TRENDS. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
IS NOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S INLAND
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 945 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE UPDATE. RETURN FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED (10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS CONTINUE AROUND THE 6
FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KRAH 220028
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
828 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. ONE THING IN WHICH THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
THEREFORE IS WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY DRY). FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

SOME DRYING MAY COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM SUNDAY...

A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 4-7 THOUSAND FT
CEILINGS...AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS MAINLY AT TRIAD
TERMINALS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIGHT...INITIALLY SW TO W SFC WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW AS THE FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NW TO NNW WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MID-
LATE WEEK...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND
POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220028
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
828 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. ONE THING IN WHICH THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
THEREFORE IS WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY DRY). FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

SOME DRYING MAY COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM SUNDAY...

A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 4-7 THOUSAND FT
CEILINGS...AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS MAINLY AT TRIAD
TERMINALS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIGHT...INITIALLY SW TO W SFC WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW AS THE FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NW TO NNW WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MID-
LATE WEEK...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND
POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS



000
FXUS62 KILM 212330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER SE NC AND NE SC.
CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. NO
MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY NEED
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95.
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
STARS THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SW
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG
WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 212330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER SE NC AND NE SC.
CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. NO
MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY NEED
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95.
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
STARS THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SW
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG
WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 212330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER SE NC AND NE SC.
CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. NO
MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY NEED
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95.
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
STARS THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SW
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG
WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 212330
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER SE NC AND NE SC.
CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. NO
MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY NEED
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95.
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
STARS THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SW
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW 06-07Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 09-10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA THUS WILL INCLUDE VCSH.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS VFR CONTINUES.

THICKNESS PATTERNS SUGGEST ACTUAL COLD AIR WILL LAG QUITE AWAYS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLUGGISH PRESSURE PATTERN MAY CAUSE WIND
DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG
WITH INCREASING PVA MAY CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AFTERNOON. STILL APPEARS VFR WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB




000
FXUS62 KILM 212325
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER SE NC AND NE SC.
CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. NO
MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY NEED A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95.
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STARS
THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB










000
FXUS62 KILM 212325
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER SE NC AND NE SC.
CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. NO
MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY NEED A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95.
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STARS
THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB










000
FXUS62 KILM 212325
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER SE NC AND NE SC.
CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. NO
MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY NEED A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95.
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STARS
THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB










000
FXUS62 KILM 212325
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER SE NC AND NE SC.
CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. NO
MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY NEED A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95.
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STARS
THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB










000
FXUS62 KILM 212323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER THE SE NC AND NE
SC. CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.
NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY
NEED A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF
I-95. OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AND STARS THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB







000
FXUS62 KILM 212323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO MID WEEK. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
LATE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES SETTLING OVER THE SE NC AND NE
SC. CLOUDS MAY DEBUT VERY LATE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS IN PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.
NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES AT THIS TIME SINCE LOWER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE SURFACE. WILL AWAIT 00Z MODEL SUITES TO ASCERTAIN IF WE MAY
NEED A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR DEEPEST INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF
I-95. OTHERWISE A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
AND STARS THIS EVENING...CLOUD ENCROACHMENT LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF
2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS
PLANNED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR AT LEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE
FOR PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SHK/DCH/MBB






000
FXUS62 KMHX 212205
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
605 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 6
TO 8 FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 212205
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
605 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 6
TO 8 FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 212205
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
605 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 6
TO 8 FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 212205
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
605 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND VEERING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NC. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE FAR WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST MONDAY AS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG OR
JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION BUT WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW. WILL INDICATE A
30% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL ALSO ADD
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE FRONTAL
INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO NW/N
DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN NC BY 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE DE ACCELERATING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. SOME OF THE AVIATION FOG IS FORECASTING MVFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT BUT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TENDS TO DRY OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE RULING OUT FOG. ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NC BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 605 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS AS SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 6
TO 8 FOOT RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL
SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC/JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG






000
FXUS62 KILM 212000
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN VIRGINIA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BE LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN
LIMITED IN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED AS WELL...TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MIDDLE
60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO
ABOUT THREE FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO
15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR ATLEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL






000
FXUS62 KILM 212000
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN VIRGINIA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BE LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN
LIMITED IN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED AS WELL...TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MIDDLE
60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN
UNESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD...AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SFC TO DOMINATE. MODELS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF TO
TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...MODELS AGREE TO HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HAVE INDICATED A LOW
POP DURING ITS PASSAGE AND POSSIBLY A LOW CHANCE POP DURING THE
IMMEDIATE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG 1035+
MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
STRONG POST-COLD FRONTAL CAA NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY MAX...MID-UPPER 70S FOR TUE
MAXES. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS A POTENTIAL BUST WITH GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.
FOR NOW WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND SELECT A HALFWAY POINT
BETWEEN THE 2. NEVERTHELESS...THE FA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR
LOWS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM TO FEATURE
ON ONSHORE FLOW AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS WELL TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WHILE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERS AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND KEEPS THEM IN THE 70S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EMPHATICALLY ON FRIDAY THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY.
THIS COULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS DRY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN TO SUPPORT RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CAROLINAS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO
ABOUT THREE FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO
15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE SUBJECT TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG RIDGING FROM THE 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES.
LOOKING AT TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINED WITH CAA SURGE FOR LATE
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SCA...OR ATLEAST
A SCEC...FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF SHORT TERM. POST COLD-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES...AND COULD CLIMB TO 3 TO 7 FT DEPENDENT ON THE COASTLINE
AND COASTAL WATERS CONFIGURATION. IE. SIG. SEAS TO APPROACH 6 TO 7
FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING SECOND HALF OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NASTY NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO QUASI STATIONARY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH EXPECTED TO MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAVE FOR
PERHAPS WINDS BEING JUST A TAD SHY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK/DL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 211920
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST WITH
DOWNSLOPING WNW/NW FLOW AS SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK ANY PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL MORNING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL CLOUDS INCREASE
TOWARD MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...PER LATEST SHORT TERM AND HIGH RES
MODELS...EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING THE ACTIVITY
BLOSSOMING A BIT AS IT REACHES THE COAST. HAVE PLAYED IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY AND WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER MAINLY LAND
IN THE MORNING AND NEAR AND OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A
WIND SHIFT TO NW/N DURING THE MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TEMPS START A SLOW
FALL. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL FORECAST NO
THUNDER ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES
AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEYOND MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z
RUN WHICH CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SETUP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT...THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION
TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WPC
GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN THOUGH CONTINUED A
SMALL BLEND WITH THE GFS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER
70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...DOWNSLOPING WNW/NW FLOW HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL TAF SITES ARE
NOW VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EVENING. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL
HINGE IF WINDS DECOUPLE. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL MIXING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL LEAN TOWARD LEAVING FOG OUT
AT THIS TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NC MON NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF
THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT
RANGE AT THE BUOYS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT AS THEY BACK TO
THE WNW/NW...BUT STILL SEEING GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT THE BUOY 17
MILES SOUTH OF OCRACOKE. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS BACKING TO SW INITIALLY THEN VEERING TO NW/N BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY. LATEST LOCAL SWAN MODEL SHOWS SEAS DROPPING TO THE 4
TO 5 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NE WINDS
15-25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS 5-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 3-5 FT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE BY WED
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE BEGINNING WED DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES. LONG RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG/SK
AVIATION...CTC/DAG/SK
MARINE...CTC/DAG/SK




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211849
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. ONE THING IN WHICH THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
THEREFORE IS WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY DRY). FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

SOME DRYING MAY COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
06Z-15Z MONDAY. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN MAY RETURN BY LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211849
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. ONE THING IN WHICH THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
THEREFORE IS WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY DRY). FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

SOME DRYING MAY COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
06Z-15Z MONDAY. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN MAY RETURN BY LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211849
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. ONE THING IN WHICH THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
THEREFORE IS WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY DRY). FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

SOME DRYING MAY COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
06Z-15Z MONDAY. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN MAY RETURN BY LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211849
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT NARROW AXIS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS A POTENT VORTMAX EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF STRONG CAA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS MONDAY TO STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. MUCH COOLER MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID
50S SE TUE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
(WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF
THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. ONE THING IN WHICH THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE
MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NC). THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN A STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH AND THEREFORE MORE ENHANCED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
THEREFORE IS WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY DRY). FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. REGARDLESS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

SOME DRYING MAY COMMENCE BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
EAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODERATION...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
06Z-15Z MONDAY. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN MAY RETURN BY LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211749
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: SURFACE LOW EAST OF HATTERAS ATTM WILL LIFT RAPIDLY OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS PICKED
UP AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SUN AS DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT: VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
06Z-15Z MONDAY. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN MAY RETURN BY LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...CBL



000
FXUS62 KILM 211723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN VIRGINIA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BE LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN
LIMITED IN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED AS WELL...TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MIDDLE 60S
INLAND AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO ABOUT THREE
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY
MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 211723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN VIRGINIA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BE LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN
LIMITED IN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED AS WELL...TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MIDDLE 60S
INLAND AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO ABOUT THREE
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY
MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 211723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN VIRGINIA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BE LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN
LIMITED IN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED AS WELL...TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MIDDLE 60S
INLAND AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO ABOUT THREE
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY
MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KILM 211723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN VIRGINIA...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BE LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN
LIMITED IN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE
LIMITED AS WELL...TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MIDDLE 60S
INLAND AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. LOOK FOR SCATTERING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. NO FOG IS
FORECAST. MONDAY...KIND OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN. THE BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE
NARROW...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO ABOUT THREE
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY
MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER CONFINED RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211645
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUND
COUNTIES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES ARE
CLEARING ELSEWHERE AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
NEAR FORECAST VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...DOWNSLOPING WNW/NW FLOW HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL TAF SITES ARE
NOW VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EVENING. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL
HINGE IF WINDS DECOUPLE. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL MIXING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL LEAN TOWARD LEAVING FOG OUT
AT THIS TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY MORNING.


AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...NNW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTING WELL INTO THE
20S ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS STILL 6-9 FEET. WINDS
CONTINUE TO  BACK TO MORE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
LIKEWISE DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE EVENING...BUT EXPECT SEAS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211645
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUND
COUNTIES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES ARE
CLEARING ELSEWHERE AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO
NEAR FORECAST VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...DOWNSLOPING WNW/NW FLOW HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL TAF SITES ARE
NOW VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EVENING. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL
HINGE IF WINDS DECOUPLE. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL MIXING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL LEAN TOWARD LEAVING FOG OUT
AT THIS TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY MORNING.


AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...NNW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTING WELL INTO THE
20S ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS STILL 6-9 FEET. WINDS
CONTINUE TO  BACK TO MORE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
LIKEWISE DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE EVENING...BUT EXPECT SEAS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK







000
FXUS62 KILM 211419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...CLEARING LINE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS JUST ABOUT ON SCHEDULE EXITING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. SOME IFR CEILINGS
REMAIN AT ILM...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE MYRTLES. VFR
CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS
ALREADY NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME GUSTINESS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING AS THEY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN THIS MORNING AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO (EXPIRE) AT NOON. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HDL






000
FXUS62 KILM 211419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...CLEARING LINE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS JUST ABOUT ON SCHEDULE EXITING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. SOME IFR CEILINGS
REMAIN AT ILM...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE MYRTLES. VFR
CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS
ALREADY NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME GUSTINESS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING AS THEY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN THIS MORNING AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO (EXPIRE) AT NOON. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HDL






000
FXUS62 KILM 211419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...CLEARING LINE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS JUST ABOUT ON SCHEDULE EXITING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. SOME IFR CEILINGS
REMAIN AT ILM...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE MYRTLES. VFR
CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS
ALREADY NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME GUSTINESS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING AS THEY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN THIS MORNING AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO (EXPIRE) AT NOON. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HDL






000
FXUS62 KILM 211419
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1019 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...CLEARING LINE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IS JUST ABOUT ON SCHEDULE EXITING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. SOME IFR CEILINGS
REMAIN AT ILM...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE MYRTLES. VFR
CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS
ALREADY NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME GUSTINESS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING AS THEY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN THIS MORNING AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO (EXPIRE) AT NOON. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...HDL






000
FXUS62 KRAH 211349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: SURFACE LOW EAST OF HATTERAS ATTM WILL LIFT RAPIDLY OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS PICKED
UP AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SUN AS DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT: VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. NW
WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT BY 15-18Z...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ~10 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: SURFACE LOW EAST OF HATTERAS ATTM WILL LIFT RAPIDLY OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS PICKED
UP AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SUN AS DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT: VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. NW
WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT BY 15-18Z...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ~10 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: SURFACE LOW EAST OF HATTERAS ATTM WILL LIFT RAPIDLY OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS PICKED
UP AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SUN AS DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT: VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. NW
WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT BY 15-18Z...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ~10 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: SURFACE LOW EAST OF HATTERAS ATTM WILL LIFT RAPIDLY OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS PICKED
UP AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SUN AS DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT: VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. NW
WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT BY 15-18Z...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ~10 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KMHX 211327
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
927 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WITH GENERALLY JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE IN OTHER
AREAS. THE 3KM HRRR/RAP ALONG WITH GFS/NAM12 SHOW PRECIPITATION
ENDING BY 16-18Z AND WILL TAPER POPS TO NIL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. WINDS
SHOULD BACK TO MORE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
LIKEWISE DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211327
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
927 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WITH GENERALLY JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE IN OTHER
AREAS. THE 3KM HRRR/RAP ALONG WITH GFS/NAM12 SHOW PRECIPITATION
ENDING BY 16-18Z AND WILL TAPER POPS TO NIL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. WINDS
SHOULD BACK TO MORE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
LIKEWISE DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211327
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
927 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WITH GENERALLY JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE IN OTHER
AREAS. THE 3KM HRRR/RAP ALONG WITH GFS/NAM12 SHOW PRECIPITATION
ENDING BY 16-18Z AND WILL TAPER POPS TO NIL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. WINDS
SHOULD BACK TO MORE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
LIKEWISE DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 211327
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
927 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WITH GENERALLY JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE IN OTHER
AREAS. THE 3KM HRRR/RAP ALONG WITH GFS/NAM12 SHOW PRECIPITATION
ENDING BY 16-18Z AND WILL TAPER POPS TO NIL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKING TO W/NW DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. WINDS
SHOULD BACK TO MORE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
LIKEWISE DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK






000
FXUS62 KRAH 211156
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
756 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID/UPPER 60S
(64-68F) IN MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN FROPA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER WITH COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN COMPARISON TO THE NAM...SHOWING TEMPS AT
INT/GSO FALLING INTO THE 50S PRIOR TO 12Z MON. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY THE SAME PATTERN AND THAT COLD ADVECTION
TYPICALLY LAGS FROPA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WILL
TREND TOWARD THE NAM WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. NW
WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT BY 15-18Z...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ~10 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211156
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
756 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID/UPPER 60S
(64-68F) IN MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN FROPA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER WITH COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN COMPARISON TO THE NAM...SHOWING TEMPS AT
INT/GSO FALLING INTO THE 50S PRIOR TO 12Z MON. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY THE SAME PATTERN AND THAT COLD ADVECTION
TYPICALLY LAGS FROPA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WILL
TREND TOWARD THE NAM WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. NW
WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT BY 15-18Z...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ~10 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211156
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
756 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID/UPPER 60S
(64-68F) IN MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN FROPA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER WITH COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN COMPARISON TO THE NAM...SHOWING TEMPS AT
INT/GSO FALLING INTO THE 50S PRIOR TO 12Z MON. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY THE SAME PATTERN AND THAT COLD ADVECTION
TYPICALLY LAGS FROPA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WILL
TREND TOWARD THE NAM WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. NW
WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT BY 15-18Z...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ~10 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211156
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
756 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID/UPPER 60S
(64-68F) IN MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN FROPA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER WITH COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN COMPARISON TO THE NAM...SHOWING TEMPS AT
INT/GSO FALLING INTO THE 50S PRIOR TO 12Z MON. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/NAM SHOW VIRTUALLY THE SAME PATTERN AND THAT COLD ADVECTION
TYPICALLY LAGS FROPA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WILL
TREND TOWARD THE NAM WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. NW
WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT BY 15-18Z...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ~10 KT BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 211044
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH IT. MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE
MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES DOWN TO NEAR 1 INCH BY NOON. THE BUBBLE OF COOL AIR ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE A FADING MEMORY BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
REBOUNDS 850 MB TEMPS TO +17C. WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
BY NOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT
THE COAST...APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO SEPTEMBER (AND METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN) THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT RESEMBLE SUMMER ANYMORE. AN ACTIVE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL WHIP ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED ONLY BY A WIND
SHIFT AT THE SURFACE SINCE THE LOW OR MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD NOT
BACK ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC OR GULF.
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ADD ENOUGH WIND TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. SOME IFR CEILINGS
REMAIN AT ILM...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE MYRTLES. VFR
CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS
ALREADY NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME GUSTINESS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING AS THEY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING THE ROUGH
WEATHER OF THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH IT. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN NEAR AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD END NO LATER THAN 9 OR 10 AM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOW THE STRONGEST
OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...EXPECTED
TO REACH 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE CAPE FEAR AREA.
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AWAY FROM SHORE MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE
MORNING...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED.

WINDS WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN SPEED EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
ORGANIZES OUT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WATER
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
IT`S JUST ONE MORE SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE CHANGING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW








000
FXUS62 KILM 211044
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH IT. MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE
MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES DOWN TO NEAR 1 INCH BY NOON. THE BUBBLE OF COOL AIR ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE A FADING MEMORY BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
REBOUNDS 850 MB TEMPS TO +17C. WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
BY NOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT
THE COAST...APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO SEPTEMBER (AND METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN) THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT RESEMBLE SUMMER ANYMORE. AN ACTIVE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL WHIP ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED ONLY BY A WIND
SHIFT AT THE SURFACE SINCE THE LOW OR MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD NOT
BACK ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC OR GULF.
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ADD ENOUGH WIND TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS NOW TRACKING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. SOME IFR CEILINGS
REMAIN AT ILM...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AT THE MYRTLES. VFR
CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS
ALREADY NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME GUSTINESS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING AS THEY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING THE ROUGH
WEATHER OF THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH IT. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN NEAR AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD END NO LATER THAN 9 OR 10 AM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOW THE STRONGEST
OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...EXPECTED
TO REACH 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE CAPE FEAR AREA.
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AWAY FROM SHORE MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE
MORNING...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED.

WINDS WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN SPEED EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
ORGANIZES OUT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WATER
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
IT`S JUST ONE MORE SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE CHANGING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/JDW









000
FXUS62 KMHX 211038
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
638 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NORTH OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH INTENSITY WINDING DOWN. NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON. HRRR APPEARS TO BE TOO WET FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUDY
SKIES OVER EASTERN NROTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT OF AREA...WILL SEE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DECREASED...SO
ANY LINGERING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 637 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS OFF CAPE LOOKOUT AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25
KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET. LOW
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIND
TURNING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 KNOTS
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW TO
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT....ALLOWING SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK









000
FXUS62 KMHX 211038
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
638 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NORTH OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH INTENSITY WINDING DOWN. NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON. HRRR APPEARS TO BE TOO WET FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUDY
SKIES OVER EASTERN NROTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT OF AREA...WILL SEE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DECREASED...SO
ANY LINGERING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 637 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS OFF CAPE LOOKOUT AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25
KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET. LOW
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIND
TURNING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 KNOTS
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW TO
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT....ALLOWING SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK









000
FXUS62 KMHX 211038
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
638 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NORTH OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH INTENSITY WINDING DOWN. NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON. HRRR APPEARS TO BE TOO WET FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUDY
SKIES OVER EASTERN NROTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT OF AREA...WILL SEE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DECREASED...SO
ANY LINGERING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 637 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS OFF CAPE LOOKOUT AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25
KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET. LOW
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIND
TURNING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 KNOTS
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW TO
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT....ALLOWING SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK









000
FXUS62 KMHX 211038
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
638 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NORTH OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH INTENSITY WINDING DOWN. NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON. HRRR APPEARS TO BE TOO WET FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUDY
SKIES OVER EASTERN NROTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT OF AREA...WILL SEE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DECREASED...SO
ANY LINGERING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM
EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EASTRN NORTH
CAROLINA TAFS THIS MORNING WITH OW CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY...AND WILL
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 637 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE IS OFF CAPE LOOKOUT AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25
KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET. LOW
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIND
TURNING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 KNOTS
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW TO
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT....ALLOWING SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK









000
FXUS62 KILM 211027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH IT. MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE
MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES DOWN TO NEAR 1 INCH BY NOON. THE BUBBLE OF COOL AIR ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE A FADING MEMORY BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
REBOUNDS 850 MB TEMPS TO +17C. WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
BY NOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT
THE COAST...APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO SEPTEMBER (AND METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN) THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT RESEMBLE SUMMER ANYMORE. AN ACTIVE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL WHIP ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED ONLY BY A WIND
SHIFT AT THE SURFACE SINCE THE LOW OR MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD NOT
BACK ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC OR GULF.
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ADD ENOUGH WIND TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 60-80 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ILM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH THE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TAKING AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TO CLEAR OUT. BENEATH THESE HIGHER CLOUDS IS A
REGION OF LOWER STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS HUGGING THE COAST. EARLIER IFR
CEILINGS AT ILM HAVE RISEN ABOVE 1000 FEET BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
800-900 FOOT CEILINGS AT ISO...DPL AND OAJ. IF IFR CONDITIONS OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING ILM SHOULD BE THE PLACE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK FOR ALL AREAS AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN
OFFSHORE BREEZES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING THE ROUGH
WEATHER OF THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH IT. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN NEAR AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD END NO LATER THAN 9 OR 10 AM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOW THE STRONGEST
OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...EXPECTED
TO REACH 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE CAPE FEAR AREA.
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AWAY FROM SHORE MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE
MORNING...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED.

WINDS WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN SPEED EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
ORGANIZES OUT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WATER
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
IT`S JUST ONE MORE SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE CHANGING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW





000
FXUS62 KILM 211027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH IT. MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE
MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES DOWN TO NEAR 1 INCH BY NOON. THE BUBBLE OF COOL AIR ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE A FADING MEMORY BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
REBOUNDS 850 MB TEMPS TO +17C. WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
BY NOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT
THE COAST...APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO SEPTEMBER (AND METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN) THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT RESEMBLE SUMMER ANYMORE. AN ACTIVE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL WHIP ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED ONLY BY A WIND
SHIFT AT THE SURFACE SINCE THE LOW OR MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD NOT
BACK ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC OR GULF.
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ADD ENOUGH WIND TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 60-80 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ILM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH THE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TAKING AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TO CLEAR OUT. BENEATH THESE HIGHER CLOUDS IS A
REGION OF LOWER STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS HUGGING THE COAST. EARLIER IFR
CEILINGS AT ILM HAVE RISEN ABOVE 1000 FEET BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
800-900 FOOT CEILINGS AT ISO...DPL AND OAJ. IF IFR CONDITIONS OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING ILM SHOULD BE THE PLACE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK FOR ALL AREAS AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN
OFFSHORE BREEZES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING THE ROUGH
WEATHER OF THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH IT. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN NEAR AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD END NO LATER THAN 9 OR 10 AM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOW THE STRONGEST
OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...EXPECTED
TO REACH 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE CAPE FEAR AREA.
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AWAY FROM SHORE MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE
MORNING...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED.

WINDS WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN SPEED EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
ORGANIZES OUT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WATER
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
IT`S JUST ONE MORE SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE CHANGING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210811
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
411 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 223 AM SUN...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH. CONTINUED RAIN WILL EXTEND OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND OUTER
BANKS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW PRESSURE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE
AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST...DIMINISHING FURTHER
INLAND. LIMITED INSTABILITY SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
AS LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA WILL HAVE DECREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DECREASED MOISTURE AND WESTERLY FLOW...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY...OR RISE
SLOWLY...DURING THE MORNING WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS MORNING LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE AREAS OF
RAIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO START MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL SITES AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 214 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TODAY. EAST AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RUN 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 6 TO 8 FEET THIS
MORNING. LOW EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND TURNING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO
25 KNOTS UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERLY FLOW TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS...REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT....ALLOWING SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210811
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
411 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 223 AM SUN...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH. CONTINUED RAIN WILL EXTEND OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND OUTER
BANKS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW PRESSURE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE
AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST...DIMINISHING FURTHER
INLAND. LIMITED INSTABILITY SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
AS LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA WILL HAVE DECREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DECREASED MOISTURE AND WESTERLY FLOW...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY...OR RISE
SLOWLY...DURING THE MORNING WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT
SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 235 AM SUN...FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST PUSHED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
REMAINS WEST OF THE FRONT...SO AM EXPECTING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SUNRISE MONDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER JET...GREATER MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" ALONG
THE COAST...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MON NIGHT WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST. WITH THE
ABOVE CONSIDERATION HAVE INCREASED POPS MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
BRINGING COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEYOND
MON NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIP SURGING BACK INTO
THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDING
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO
THE REGION THURS INTO FRI...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
WPC GENERALLY FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF MEAN AND GFS AND FOLLOWED
SUIT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS MORNING LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE AREAS OF
RAIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO START MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL SITES AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. INLAND TAFS MAINLY
AFFECTED IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUES
AND EXPECT PRED VFR. MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON
EXTENT OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS LEADING
TO BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IF THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 214 AM SUN...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TODAY. EAST AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RUN 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 6 TO 8 FEET THIS
MORNING. LOW EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND TURNING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO
25 KNOTS UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN THE RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERLY FLOW TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS...REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT....ALLOWING SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY...
PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SW/W WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW/N AROUND 10-15 KT AFTER FROPA MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. LONGER RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK







000
FXUS62 KILM 210730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE FEAR
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH IT. MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE
MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES DOWN TO NEAR 1 INCH BY NOON. THE BUBBLE OF COOL AIR ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE A FADING MEMORY BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
REBOUNDS 850 MB TEMPS TO +17C. WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
BY NOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT
THE COAST...APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO SEPTEMBER AND METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT RESEMBLE SUMMER ANYMORE. AN ACTIVE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL WHIP ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED ONLY BY A WIND
SHIFT AT THE SURFACE SINCE THE LOW OR MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD NOT
BACK ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC OR GULF.
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ADD ENOUGH WIND TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 60-80 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ILM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH THE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TAKING AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TO CLEAR OUT. BENEATH THESE HIGHER CLOUDS IS A
REGION OF LOWER STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS HUGGING THE COAST. EARLIER IFR
CEILINGS AT ILM HAVE RISEN ABOVE 1000 FEET BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
800-900 FOOT CEILINGS AT ISO...DPL AND OAJ. IF IFR CONDITIONS OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING ILM SHOULD BE THE PLACE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK FOR ALL AREAS AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN
OFFSHORE BREEZES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE FEAR
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...EVENTUALLY TAKING THE
ROUGH WEATHER OF THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH IT. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD END NO LATER THAN 9 OR 10 AM
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOW THE
STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...EXPECTED TO REACH 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED AWAY FROM SHORE IN
THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AWAY FROM SHORE MAY CONTINUE
INTO LATE MORNING...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
POSTED.

WINDS WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN SPEED EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
ORGANIZES OUT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WATER
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
IT`S JUST ONE MORE SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE CHANGING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW









000
FXUS62 KILM 210730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OFFSHORE AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE FEAR
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...TAKING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH IT. MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY LATE
MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES DOWN TO NEAR 1 INCH BY NOON. THE BUBBLE OF COOL AIR ALONG
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE A FADING MEMORY BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
REBOUNDS 850 MB TEMPS TO +17C. WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
BY NOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH MID 80S AT
THE COAST...APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO SEPTEMBER AND METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT RESEMBLE SUMMER ANYMORE. AN ACTIVE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL WHIP ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED ONLY BY A WIND
SHIFT AT THE SURFACE SINCE THE LOW OR MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD NOT
BACK ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC OR GULF.
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ADD ENOUGH WIND TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER...AS THE FALL EQUINOX OCCURS AROUND 1030 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT ON CUE...A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
MONDAY...USHERING IN TRUE FALL-LIKE AIR FOR TUESDAY. BEFORE THE COOL
DRY AIR CAN OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THE FROPA TEMPORALLY MATCHING
PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH HIGHEST POP EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
DEEPER...YET STILL MODERATE...MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS SCHC FOR MONDAY...AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR UPTICKS
ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THANKS TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID COOL/DRY ADVECTION TO ENGULF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A
BEAUTIFUL...ALTHOUGH A BIT WINDY...FALL DAY ON TUESDAY AS EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
ON CONTINUED...BUT WEAKENING...CAA...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. MINS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL DROP TO SOME OF THE COOLEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE...WITH MID/UPR 50S EXPECTED INLAND...AND RIGHT AROUND 60 AT
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST TO PRODUCE COOL AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP EXPECTED...THEY ARE ALL MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR LATE WEEK.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST HALF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DRIVING THE COASTAL TROUGH TOWARDS SHORE. THIS COMBINING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT ENERGY ALOFT MAY EVEN SPAWN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE...ALL OF WHICH POINT TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. COOL E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EASTERLY FLOW TOPPING
THAT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMPLIFIES. WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND A
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...THE FIRST WEEK OF
FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

DRYING SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...SQUELCHING THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ERODING MUCH OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 60-80 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ILM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH THE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TAKING AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TO CLEAR OUT. BENEATH THESE HIGHER CLOUDS IS A
REGION OF LOWER STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS HUGGING THE COAST. EARLIER IFR
CEILINGS AT ILM HAVE RISEN ABOVE 1000 FEET BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
800-900 FOOT CEILINGS AT ISO...DPL AND OAJ. IF IFR CONDITIONS OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING ILM SHOULD BE THE PLACE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK FOR ALL AREAS AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN
OFFSHORE BREEZES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE FEAR
WILL ACCELERATE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...EVENTUALLY TAKING THE
ROUGH WEATHER OF THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH IT. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD END NO LATER THAN 9 OR 10 AM
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS LOW THE
STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...EXPECTED TO REACH 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED AWAY FROM SHORE IN
THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AWAY FROM SHORE MAY CONTINUE
INTO LATE MORNING...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
POSTED.

WINDS WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN SPEED EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
ORGANIZES OUT AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE WATER
MONDAY. WHILE WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
IT`S JUST ONE MORE SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE CHANGING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL START THE
PERIOD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING MONDAY AFTN.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
FURTHER VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NE...THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURGE WITH WIND SPEEDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...COMBINED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY RISE TO 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SEAS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION CAUSING A CONFUSED SPECTRUM. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS THE NE SURGE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS...SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM 2-3 FT TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT BOTH WED AND THU...DRIVING
PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS INTO LATE WEEK. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-7 FT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254
WHERE WAVE SHADOWING IS LIKELY AND AMPLITUDES WILL THUS BE LOWER.
EVEN SO...AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW










000
FXUS62 KRAH 210724
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
323 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S (64-67F)
GIVEN FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: WITH ONE EXCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS AT THE RWI TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
RAPID RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z AS THE COASTAL LOW GAINS
LATITUDE AND A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS TOWARD THE COAST FROM
THE NW. NNW/NW WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT DURING
THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210724
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
323 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S (64-67F)
GIVEN FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: WITH ONE EXCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS AT THE RWI TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
RAPID RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z AS THE COASTAL LOW GAINS
LATITUDE AND A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS TOWARD THE COAST FROM
THE NW. NNW/NW WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT DURING
THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT



000
FXUS62 KRAH 210702
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S (64-67F)
GIVEN FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: WITH ONE EXCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS AT THE RWI TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
RAPID RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z AS THE COASTAL LOW GAINS
LATITUDE AND A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS TOWARD THE COAST FROM
THE NW. NNW/NW WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT DURING
THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KILM 210518
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1217 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT WILL BRING GUSTY
WIND AND COASTAL RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE COAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...OCEAN RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
CONTINUES MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS LATE EVENING. LATEST SURFACE CHART
SHOWS A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED AROUND 150 MILES SSE OF BALD HEAD
ISLAND. NO WEIGHTY OR MOMENTOUS CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE
WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TARGET WITH LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S COASTAL INTERIOR
AND 70-74 IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT ICWW LOCALS. MOST RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT PARTIAL CLEARING MAY UNFOLD ACROSS
OUR DEEP INTERIOR. AS A RESULT WE HAVE LOWERED MINIMUMS A DEGREE
OR 2 FAR INLAND WHERE THIS IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST QPF VALUES REMAIN
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. A PAUCITY OF RAINFALL COVERAGE OFFSHORE
DUE TO APPROACHING DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BANDING
FEATURES CONSTITUTES LIKELY AND HIGH SCATTERED POP VALUES ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL/WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BE SHEARING OUT AND MOVING
OUT QUICKLY AS WILL THE SURFACE LOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. I HAVE MAINTAINED RESIDUAL MINIMAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY TO ADDRESS. LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A RAPID CLEARING WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S
WITH HIGHER VALUES INLAND WHERE THERE WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF
INSOLATION. THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. GUIDANCE REMAINS UNIMPRESSED WITH CONVECTION REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE
COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE BIGGER
STORY...AND GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 55 IN THE MAV AND MET IN LBT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THESE
MINIMAL VALUES BUT WE COULD SEE A LOT OF UPPER 50S INLAND AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RIGHT ON CUE THE AREA SEEMS TO BE IN FOR SOME
FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY, BETTER SUPPRESSING FRONTAL
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN A WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION REGIME.
SIMILARLY A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH MOST PLACES GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 50S. THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDS ITS GROUND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AS THE ANTICYCLONE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEAKENS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW
OF MOISTURE. FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ASIDE, THERE WON`T BE MUCH
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT,
AND MAYBE HARD-PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAY CHANGE
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT
MORE CONVERGENT AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ATOP THE
PERSISTENT WEDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 60-80 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ILM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH THE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TAKING AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TO CLEAR OUT. BENEATH THESE HIGHER CLOUDS IS A
REGION OF LOWER STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS HUGGING THE COAST. EARLIER IFR
CEILINGS AT ILM HAVE RISEN ABOVE 1000 FEET BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
800-900 FOOT CEILINGS AT ISO...DPL AND OAJ. IF IFR CONDITIONS OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING ILM SHOULD BE THE PLACE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK FOR ALL AREAS AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN
OFFSHORE BREEZES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY FOR SEA HEIGHT RECOVERY TIME. WIND SPEEDS 20-25 KT WITH
WINDS NE BACKING TO N LATE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES WITH DOMINANT PERIODS IN THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD
RANGE TO DOMINATE THE SIG SEAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 0-20
NM WATERS. THE OCEAN IS HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND
NAVIGATION OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS
END AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN
A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO BE IN PLACE BY 0000 UTC TUESDAY THEN VEERING TO
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AM. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR TEN KNOTS
LATE MONDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL 3-5
FOOT SEAS EARLY SUNDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
THEY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FIRMLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER INTO THE COOL
SEASON. THE GRADIENT ITSELF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO YIELD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS, BUT SEAS WILL ALSO BE ADVISORY-WORTHY AREA
WIDE (AMZ254 MAY HAVE A BIT OF TROUBLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOW OFF CAPE
FEAR). NOT ONLY WILL THE ADVISORY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD BUT ALSO LIKELY BEYOND AS THE WEDGE SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF
WEAKENING OR MOVING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...TRA





000
FXUS62 KILM 210518
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1217 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT WILL BRING GUSTY
WIND AND COASTAL RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE COAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...OCEAN RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
CONTINUES MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS LATE EVENING. LATEST SURFACE CHART
SHOWS A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED AROUND 150 MILES SSE OF BALD HEAD
ISLAND. NO WEIGHTY OR MOMENTOUS CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE
WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TARGET WITH LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S COASTAL INTERIOR
AND 70-74 IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT ICWW LOCALS. MOST RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT PARTIAL CLEARING MAY UNFOLD ACROSS
OUR DEEP INTERIOR. AS A RESULT WE HAVE LOWERED MINIMUMS A DEGREE
OR 2 FAR INLAND WHERE THIS IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST QPF VALUES REMAIN
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. A PAUCITY OF RAINFALL COVERAGE OFFSHORE
DUE TO APPROACHING DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BANDING
FEATURES CONSTITUTES LIKELY AND HIGH SCATTERED POP VALUES ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL/WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BE SHEARING OUT AND MOVING
OUT QUICKLY AS WILL THE SURFACE LOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. I HAVE MAINTAINED RESIDUAL MINIMAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY TO ADDRESS. LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A RAPID CLEARING WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S
WITH HIGHER VALUES INLAND WHERE THERE WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF
INSOLATION. THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. GUIDANCE REMAINS UNIMPRESSED WITH CONVECTION REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE
COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE BIGGER
STORY...AND GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 55 IN THE MAV AND MET IN LBT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THESE
MINIMAL VALUES BUT WE COULD SEE A LOT OF UPPER 50S INLAND AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RIGHT ON CUE THE AREA SEEMS TO BE IN FOR SOME
FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY, BETTER SUPPRESSING FRONTAL
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN A WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION REGIME.
SIMILARLY A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH MOST PLACES GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 50S. THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDS ITS GROUND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AS THE ANTICYCLONE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEAKENS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW
OF MOISTURE. FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ASIDE, THERE WON`T BE MUCH
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT,
AND MAYBE HARD-PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAY CHANGE
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT
MORE CONVERGENT AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ATOP THE
PERSISTENT WEDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 60-80 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ILM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH THE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TAKING AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TO CLEAR OUT. BENEATH THESE HIGHER CLOUDS IS A
REGION OF LOWER STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS HUGGING THE COAST. EARLIER IFR
CEILINGS AT ILM HAVE RISEN ABOVE 1000 FEET BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
800-900 FOOT CEILINGS AT ISO...DPL AND OAJ. IF IFR CONDITIONS OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING ILM SHOULD BE THE PLACE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK FOR ALL AREAS AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN
OFFSHORE BREEZES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY FOR SEA HEIGHT RECOVERY TIME. WIND SPEEDS 20-25 KT WITH
WINDS NE BACKING TO N LATE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES WITH DOMINANT PERIODS IN THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD
RANGE TO DOMINATE THE SIG SEAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 0-20
NM WATERS. THE OCEAN IS HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND
NAVIGATION OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS
END AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN
A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO BE IN PLACE BY 0000 UTC TUESDAY THEN VEERING TO
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AM. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR TEN KNOTS
LATE MONDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL 3-5
FOOT SEAS EARLY SUNDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
THEY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FIRMLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER INTO THE COOL
SEASON. THE GRADIENT ITSELF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO YIELD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS, BUT SEAS WILL ALSO BE ADVISORY-WORTHY AREA
WIDE (AMZ254 MAY HAVE A BIT OF TROUBLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOW OFF CAPE
FEAR). NOT ONLY WILL THE ADVISORY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD BUT ALSO LIKELY BEYOND AS THE WEDGE SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF
WEAKENING OR MOVING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...TRA






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210454
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN US COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1242 AM SUN...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND
THE CRYSTAL COAST. RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE IN CARTERET COUNTY THIS EARLY MORNING. PWS ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST
BY SUNRISE WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...THE COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WELL WITH CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. AGAIN FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 60S COAST. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIPITATION EVEN ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMPLETELY WHICH
IS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...AND THUS HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST ON THURSDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL LIKEWISE HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1253 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS MORNING LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE AREAS OF
RAIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO START MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL SITES AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT
OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS EXISTS THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1248 AM SUN...EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8
FEET. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA OAST WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNRISE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER ALL THE WATERS IN TIGHT
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY
WINDS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

WILL SEE TREACHEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE
WATERS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. BASED ON LATEST OUTPUT FROM LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR SEAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND STRONG 1035 MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE. LONGER
RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210454
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN US COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1242 AM SUN...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND
THE CRYSTAL COAST. RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE IN CARTERET COUNTY THIS EARLY MORNING. PWS ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST
BY SUNRISE WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...THE COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WELL WITH CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. AGAIN FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 60S COAST. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIPITATION EVEN ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMPLETELY WHICH
IS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...AND THUS HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST ON THURSDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL LIKEWISE HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1253 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS MORNING LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE AREAS OF
RAIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO START MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL SITES AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT
OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS EXISTS THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1248 AM SUN...EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8
FEET. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA OAST WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNRISE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER ALL THE WATERS IN TIGHT
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY
WINDS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

WILL SEE TREACHEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE
WATERS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. BASED ON LATEST OUTPUT FROM LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR SEAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND STRONG 1035 MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE. LONGER
RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210454
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN US COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1242 AM SUN...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND
THE CRYSTAL COAST. RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE IN CARTERET COUNTY THIS EARLY MORNING. PWS ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST
BY SUNRISE WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...THE COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WELL WITH CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. AGAIN FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 60S COAST. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIPITATION EVEN ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMPLETELY WHICH
IS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...AND THUS HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST ON THURSDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL LIKEWISE HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1253 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS MORNING LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE AREAS OF
RAIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO START MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL SITES AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT
OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS EXISTS THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1248 AM SUN...EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8
FEET. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA OAST WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNRISE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER ALL THE WATERS IN TIGHT
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY
WINDS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

WILL SEE TREACHEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE
WATERS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. BASED ON LATEST OUTPUT FROM LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR SEAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND STRONG 1035 MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE. LONGER
RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210454
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN US COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1242 AM SUN...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND
THE CRYSTAL COAST. RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE IN CARTERET COUNTY THIS EARLY MORNING. PWS ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST
BY SUNRISE WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...THE COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WELL WITH CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. AGAIN FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 60S COAST. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIPITATION EVEN ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMPLETELY WHICH
IS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...AND THUS HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST ON THURSDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL LIKEWISE HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1253 AM SUN...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS MORNING LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE AREAS OF
RAIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO START MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL SITES AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT
OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS EXISTS THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1248 AM SUN...EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8
FEET. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA OAST WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY SUNRISE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER ALL THE WATERS IN TIGHT
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY
WINDS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

WILL SEE TREACHEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE
WATERS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. BASED ON LATEST OUTPUT FROM LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR SEAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND STRONG 1035 MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE. LONGER
RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KILM 210331
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1131 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT WILL BRING GUSTY
WIND AND COASTAL RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE COAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...OCEAN RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
CONTINUES MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS LATE EVENING. LATEST SURFACE CHART
SHOWS A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED AROUND 150 MILES SSE OF BALD HEAD
ISLAND. NO WEIGHTY OR MOMENTOUS CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE
WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TARGET WITH LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S COASTAL INTERIOR
AND 70-74 IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT ICWW LOCALS. MOST RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT PARTIAL CLEARING MAY UNFOLD ACROSS
OUR DEEP INTERIOR. AS A RESULT WE HAVE LOWERED MINIMUMS A DEGREE
OR 2 FAR INLAND WHERE THIS IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST QPF VALUES REMAIN
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. A PAUCITY OF RAINFALL COVERAGE OFFSHORE
DUE TO APPROACHING DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BANDING
FEATURES CONSTITUTES LIKELY AND HIGH SCATTERED POP VALUES ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL/WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BE SHEARING OUT AND MOVING
OUT QUICKLY AS WILL THE SURFACE LOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. I HAVE MAINTAINED RESIDUAL MINIMAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY TO ADDRESS. LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A RAPID CLEARING WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S
WITH HIGHER VALUES INLAND WHERE THERE WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF
INSOLATION. THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. GUIDANCE REMAINS UNIMPRESSED WITH CONVECTION REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE
COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE BIGGER
STORY...AND GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 55 IN THE MAV AND MET IN LBT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THESE
MINIMAL VALUES BUT WE COULD SEE A LOT OF UPPER 50S INLAND AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RIGHT ON CUE THE AREA SEEMS TO BE IN FOR SOME
FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY, BETTER SUPPRESSING FRONTAL
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN A WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION REGIME.
SIMILARLY A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH MOST PLACES GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 50S. THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDS ITS GROUND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AS THE ANTICYCLONE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEAKENS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW
OF MOISTURE. FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ASIDE, THERE WON`T BE MUCH
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT,
AND MAYBE HARD-PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAY CHANGE
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT
MORE CONVERGENT AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ATOP THE
PERSISTENT WEDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COASTAL LOW IS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND WILL  SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN MVFR
CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST. CAN ALSO EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS OVER NIGHT. INLAND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT VFR AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD REMAINING TO THE
EAST.

AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRYING OUT AND
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY FOR SEA HEIGHT RECOVERY TIME. WIND SPEEDS 20-25 KT WITH
WINDS NE BACKING TO N LATE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES WITH DOMINANT PERIODS IN THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD
RANGE TO DOMINATE THE SIG SEAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 0-20
NM WATERS. THE OCEAN IS HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND
NAVIGATION OFFSHORE IS DISCOURAGED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS
END AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN
A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO BE IN PLACE BY 0000 UTC TUESDAY THEN VEERING TO
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AM. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR TEN KNOTS
LATE MONDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL 3-5
FOOT SEAS EARLY SUNDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
THEY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FIRMLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER INTO THE COOL
SEASON. THE GRADIENT ITSELF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO YIELD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS, BUT SEAS WILL ALSO BE ADVISORY-WORTHY AREA
WIDE (AMZ254 MAY HAVE A BIT OF TROUBLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOW OFF CAPE
FEAR). NOT ONLY WILL THE ADVISORY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD BUT ALSO LIKELY BEYOND AS THE WEDGE SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF
WEAKENING OR MOVING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...HAWKINS




000
FXUS62 KMHX 210232
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1032 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN US COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO MOVE ITS WAY ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN WITH SOME SUBTLE ROTATION NOTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ONSHORE AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PENETRATING A BIT FURTHER INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY RAIN
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS OUTER BANKS/CARTERET COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL OMEGA/FGEN
OBSERVED IN RUC X-SECTIONS. HAVE INC POPS A BIT MORE TO ACCOUNT
FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND EXPECTED INC IN VORT ADVECTION ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY INC QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DUAL POL P-RATES JIVING WITH OBSERVED RATES
OF 1 TO OCNL 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE ONSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD
JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUING STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT AND ACTS TO
GENERATE STRONG OMEGA/FGEN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS CERTAINLY WILL BE A THREAT...AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN FCST GRIDS. WILL SEE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...THE COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WELL WITH CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. AGAIN FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 60S COAST. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIPITATION EVEN ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMPLETELY WHICH
IS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...AND THUS HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST ON THURSDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL LIKEWISE HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OF
THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. BULK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH WILL SEE OCNL BOUTS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECT ESP THE KEWN AND KOAJ TAF SITES
WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY INLAND. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BEST CONFIDENCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AT KEWN
WHERE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AS AREA OF LOW PRES
MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS TURN WNW BRINGING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT
OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS EXISTS THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM SAT...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A
BROAD COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ESPECIALLY. SCA IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS. PAMLICO SOUND IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MONITOR AND WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS IF NEEDED.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FEET AND ENE WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

CONTINUED ON STRONG SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BLENDING THE HIGH RES
NAM/ARW INTO THE FORECAST FOR WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH AND HAVE JUMPED
TO 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
WITH 6 FOOT SEAS TO THE SOUTH. USED NWPS GUIDANCE AND HAD TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE EARLY PERIOD TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
HIGHER SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE TREACHEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. BASED ON LATEST OUTPUT FROM LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR SEAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND STRONG 1035 MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE. LONGER
RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RSB/CTC/TL
MARINE...RSB/CTC/LEP






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210232
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1032 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AS A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN US COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO MOVE ITS WAY ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN WITH SOME SUBTLE ROTATION NOTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ONSHORE AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PENETRATING A BIT FURTHER INLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY RAIN
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS OUTER BANKS/CARTERET COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL OMEGA/FGEN
OBSERVED IN RUC X-SECTIONS. HAVE INC POPS A BIT MORE TO ACCOUNT
FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS AND EXPECTED INC IN VORT ADVECTION ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY INC QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DUAL POL P-RATES JIVING WITH OBSERVED RATES
OF 1 TO OCNL 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE ONSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD
JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUING STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT AND ACTS TO
GENERATE STRONG OMEGA/FGEN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS CERTAINLY WILL BE A THREAT...AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN FCST GRIDS. WILL SEE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...THE COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WELL WITH CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. AGAIN FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH VERY COMFORTABLE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 60S COAST. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER SHOWING PRECIPITATION EVEN ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMPLETELY WHICH
IS CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...AND THUS HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST ON THURSDAY...BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL LIKEWISE HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SAT...LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OF
THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. BULK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH WILL SEE OCNL BOUTS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECT ESP THE KEWN AND KOAJ TAF SITES
WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY INLAND. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BEST CONFIDENCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AT KEWN
WHERE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AS AREA OF LOW PRES
MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS TURN WNW BRINGING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VFR. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON EXTENT
OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS EXISTS THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR AND PSBL IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM SAT...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A
BROAD COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ESPECIALLY. SCA IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS. PAMLICO SOUND IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE MONITOR AND WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS IF NEEDED.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FEET AND ENE WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

CONTINUED ON STRONG SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BLENDING THE HIGH RES
NAM/ARW INTO THE FORECAST FOR WINDS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH AND HAVE JUMPED
TO 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
WITH 6 FOOT SEAS TO THE SOUTH. USED NWPS GUIDANCE AND HAD TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE EARLY PERIOD TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
HIGHER SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL SEE TREACHEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. BASED ON LATEST OUTPUT FROM LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR SEAS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND STRONG 1035 MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE. LONGER
RANGE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RSB/CTC/TL
MARINE...RSB/CTC/LEP







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities